The Ringer NFL Show - The Russell Wilson Situation | The Ringer NFL Show

Episode Date: April 15, 2019

Russel Wilson’s future in Seattle and how it affects the Seahawks and the league. Hosts: Robert Mays and Kevin Clark Guest: Danny Kelly Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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The Ringer NFL show. I'm Robert Mays. And joined by a couple different guys today. Danny Kelly is here. Kevin Clark is here. DK, we wanted to have you on because we're doing an emergency Russell Wilson contract podcast and we could not do it without you.

Oh man. What a day. What a fun day. It's been on Twitter. So here's the deal. I feel like because obviously the Russell Wilson imposed deadline that may be real, it may not be real, about his contract extension.

Today is the day. And it created kind of a stir in the football kind of conversation community about whether this was something the Seahaw should do, what would happen, the ramifications. And I feel like we all had opinions on it. So the idea was, why don't we all just talk about it together? Yeah. So Kevin, why don't you start? I think we do.

I think we do all have the same opinions talking over each other and repeating that opinion. Danny, you start. Well, let's let me just start off. by saying, I've gone down the rabbit hole. There was a point last year where Mays and I went back and forth. We went down the rabbit hole and explored the idea of the Seahawks trading Russell Wilson. We wrote a whole thing. We wrote like a 4,000 word back and forth that never was published because they started playing well.

What? Wilson caught fire. Yes, this happened. But the bottom line is I've gone down that rabbit hole and imagined a scenario where the Seahawks trade of Russell Wilson and I've come out thinking it would be the most moronic thing in the world. So basically, we've been there. We've gone down that path. You don't think there's any fair value.

If the Giants just trade their two first round picks this year, plus a couple more mid-round picks, that's not fair value. I think it could be fair value. I don't necessarily trust the Seahawks to turn those four picks into anything worthwhile. That would even closely resemble what Wilson brings. I mean, if you look at their last like six years of drafts, it's been really hit or miss. The draft in itself is very hit or miss.

But that's why stockpiling assets, there's an argument for doing so because it's so hit or miss and giving yourself more dice rolls is the only smart way to go about the draft. Yeah, so if you can get four first round picks, then that's a more realistic, I guess, option for the Seahawks if they actually do end up training them. But you have to ask yourself,

are there any teams that are going to do that? Are there any teams that are going to say, here's four first round picks, plus we're going to pay him $35 million a year. So even outside of the draft pick conversation about trading him, I think the foundation of this discussion on a couple different fronts is what you would have to allocate toward Russell Wilson worth what you would save and where else you could allocate those resources. Would you rather have Russell Wilson at X price or would you rather divvy up those assets

on a couple different players, draft picks or whatever you want to say? So at the core of all of this is the question, is Russell Wilson the type of player who is worth tying up 17 and a half percent of your cap at $35 million a season? Or is he the type of quarterback that does not kind of cover up your flaws elsewhere to the point where you'd rather be able to stockpile your roster? That is to me the crux of this entire issue. And I feel like, I don't, correct me if I'm wrong here, Kevin, but I think all three of us kind of fall in the first camp where he is worth it because he's going to mask the other issues that two or three more players would solve for you.

Okay. Couple of things. Danny, you're going to love Ryan Tanna Hill next year. God. This is the worst part of this is that Danny has this like deeply pained side of it that you and I don't have, Kevin. Second of all, let's get into this.

So there's a couple of things. Number one, this all might be moot because of a little thing called the franchise tag. Okay. Now, the franchise tag is in the second year going to be $30 million, I think, so that we're looking at 20, 21 at that point, whatever. The guys that over the cap did an analysis, their numbers were in 2020, it's 31. Yeah. In 2021, 37.2.

So if you include this season where he's owed 17 guaranteed, that would be around 85 million for the next three years. So set similar numbers to what D.Ks can be making in 2021. That is the Kirk Cousins contract. That's exactly what that's the floor. And so, but Kirk Cousins forced his way to free agency, he got tagged twice, okay? That's what's going to have to happen with Wilson.

They're probably not going to let him walk. Right. Here's why Wilson is worth it. It's because not only is he able to make up for the deficiencies exactly what you said exactly what I said on Twitter this morning, but he's also able to make up for the scheme deficiencies

which is completely out of this era. So not only does he make up for maybe some problems we've seen it over the course of the last five years, offensive line problems, talent problems in general. He also masks coaching problems, and you can't put a price on that. I think that we read too much into the stat last year that the top six quarterbacks not make the playoffs. Excuse me, the top six highest paid quarterbacks not make the playoffs last year.

Matt Ryan probably should have won a Super Bowl at a huge price tag. Drew Brees should have played one this year. paying a quarterback is not a bad thing paying a bad quarterback is a bad thing Russell Wilson is a good quarterback you pay these guys I think we've gone too far down the road or any good and any big contract

is considered bad and any small contract is considered good the salary cap is rising $10 million a year more in some years there's a lot of money to go around we're not just trying to acquire the most cap space and most picks. Those things worked.

The Browns did that. It worked. But they turned them into good players. Baker Mayfield is the reason the Browns are going to win this year. Miles Garrett is the reason the Browns are going to win this year. It's not because they acquired a ton of cap space. The plan leads to the players. What's Seattle's plan right now?

Because they have a good player and he might be out the door. The other thing is to take into account with the, salary cap is the Seahawks right now, the way that they've structured a whole bunch of their contracts is that they're not tied down to these big albatross contracts right now. So if you look at 2020, their cap space is like $85 million, which is the second most in the NFL in 2021. It goes up to 151. The second place in the NFL, 2022, 183.2 million. That's from Justice Mosquade on Twitter. That's first in the NFL. So the idea that they're, you know, they've just got so much flexibility right now with their cap that it's not going to be

a type of contract that completely hamstrings them. Now, granted, they still have to get Bobby Wagner done. They might get Frank Clark done. So that's going to eat into a lot of that cap. But they're still in really good shape cap flexibility-wise going forward over the next three, four years. And that that three, four years is a is a Super Bowl window. I mean, you have like, it's not like they need to restart. They need to like completely, like you said, just build up a bunch of cap space and get a bunch of picks because they're still a competitive team. And Russell Wilson makes them that competitive. The other thing, I saw

a couple stats on PFF. There's this idea that with the Seahawks philosophy they could insert like a league average quarterback and be nearly as good, which I explored that thought, I just think it's stupid at this point. It's so dumb. And that's the thing that I agree. I understand where you're coming

from, Kevin, when you say that he kind of masked the scheme deficiencies. But I also think that the scheme itself is one of the reasons that the Seahawks are probably sitting there saying, well, we don't need to pay a quarterback. That's not how we play, which is totally backwards.

We're rolling with Schottenheimer. But that seems to be what they're doing. We have a top five quarterback, and that's great, but we've also got Brian Schottenheimer, and he's our way forward. I want to throw... Am I in a coma?

I want to throw... You guys, let me throw two stats at you guys. PFF, Seattle's Twitter account, posts these two today. Last year, Russell's pass rating under pressure was 86%. point two, which is 20 points higher than the NFL average. And his passer rating on third downs, 113.17.7, 25 points higher than the NFL average.

Under pressure on third downs and in his deep passing, he was an excellent deep passer last year. Russell Wilson is so much better than an average quarterback in those three huge key categories for the way that the Seahawks want to play football, the way that they want to run the ball and all that. it just to me he's clearly elevating this offense with his ability to do all those three things. So I think there are a lot of things I want to get to that you guys have just brought up. I feel like Kevin, the point you made about the rookie contracts and how we kind of fetishize those and how it's all cheap or nothing at this point, I think is such a good point. Because everyone's trying to kind of talk about how having a quarterback on a rookie contract is the best way to build, which yes, it is. Having a good one is.

But if you're looking at the numbers, just actual numbers, Mitchell Tribesky is going to make $8 million this year against the cap. Let's say Russell Wilson makes $30 in his first year. So we're talking about almost four times as much, and you're talking $22 million in allocated cap space. Is the gap between Russell Wilson and, let's say, even a slightly better quarterback, let's say Jared Gough, is the gap between Jared Gough and Russell Wilson worth $22.5 million in players?

and I just think the answer to that question is yes. Yeah, I do too. The other thing is like you have to get, you have to have like a top three pick to get either of those guys. And also you have to hit on the $22 million in players. Yes. I mean, we look at the Eagles and we say,

okay, well they're able to get all these luxury items, you know, specifically around whence. They were able to get somebody like an Alshan Jeffrey or Ford guys like that. But they got that right. And I would say that the Rams obviously, that with Robert Woods too, but I'm saying there's no guarantee the extra $22 million of cap space you're going to go to anything good. Right.

Remember, hey, by the way, the damn Seahawks had all this cap room and they traded for Percy Harvin. That all worked out. I'm just saying their big swings have been Percy Harvin and Jimmy Graham. Yeah. And the other thing is that it's not just the salary cap space. I brought up the Saints and the Drew Breeze kind of sloth. Indoor's moments that could have led to them being in another Super Bowl or winning one. And one of the responses was that, well, yeah, you know, they could be the model if every team could hit on a first round right tackle and a Michael Thomas and an Alvin Kamara.

It's like, yeah, that's not hard or that's not easy to do, but neither is finding a franchise quarterback. Like at some points, you're going to have to get lucky with a couple of these choices. Yeah. And I think the hardest thing to find is still a franchise quarterback. So paying market price for one of those guys, that's not the misguided thing you can do to me. Because in the end, I do think it's more difficult to find that guy than it is to build an infrastructure that can lift a mediocre quarterback. Maybe I'm backwards about that, but I just don't think I am. I think finding a top five quarterback is still the hardest thing to do.

I agree. Let me ask you guys this because I think this is a big part of why we're recording right now is Wilson set this artificial deadline. for, you know, tonight at midnight or whatever for the thing to get done. If it doesn't get done, what does that mean? Like, if they come back and offer him, you know, 35 million a year with 100 plus million guarantees, is he going to say no? Well, that gets to some of this other stuff about how he wants a percentage of the cap and all of that, which if you had a smart negotiating agent and you were Russell Wilson and you had

a ton of leverage outside of just being franchised twice, wouldn't you be arguing for a paradigm shifting contract that sets new precedents everywhere? I want to address this. I want to address this. I saw Danny Hype that's earlier on the lot, our esteemed colleague, and he was saying, do you think this is real, the percentage of the cap stuff? Remember last July when Aaron Rogers was talking about a non-traditional contract as well? And we were thinking about that sort of stuff. I talked to Aaron a couple of weeks before his contract, for instance.

We talked a little bit about the possibilities that were ahead for him. And then he signed a pretty basic contract. Right. And he said that essentially the NFL wasn't ready to broach new style contracts, MBA style contracts or whatever. And it gets me back to this point. And this is the point I want to make about Russell Wilson. If you're negotiating for a contract, isn't what, aren't you just going to say you want the most money possible? And isn't that, isn't the way to do that to get a percentage of the cap every year?

I mean, it's a, as George Cranza would say, it's a negotiation. Like if you start there and you say, I want 18% of the cap every single year, then that might kick in, you know, a few million bucks a year. I don't know if a team is going to do that. I don't know if he reaches free agency if a team is going to do that. I also don't think he's going to reach free agency for three more years. So I think that I think that no one, we talk about all this leverage or whatever, no one has as much leverage as we think because the franchise tag exists. You know, you heard that, you know, people talk about opt-outs or whatever. it's a long way away because the franchise tag kills leverage.

I cannot emphasize this enough. We're sitting here and acting like Russell Wilson is going to be a free agent next summer. That's not the case. They have no leverage. That's the furthest possibility. I mean, I think if you're ranking them right now, I would say it's extension first. If it's not going to happen tomorrow, then I think it's trade, right? Because if you could trade him and get just a huge return for it,

if he's because let's think about this in the Kirk Cousins kind of space and framing it that way Kirk Cousins would not have fetched the same thing on the trade market that Russell Wilson would so kind of franchising Cousins two straight years makes more sense because if you're going to lose him in two years

wouldn't you rather have four first round picks right? I think that's why it's a little bit different so I think that's why the trade feels more realistic to me for a guy like him than it would be for cousins because you can sit there if you're Pete Carroll and John Schneider and think we have to do this if we're going to lose him in two years anyway. Yeah, and I still think that like two or three years is still a Super Bowl window, though. So I don't think thinking past two years is really that bad of an idea.

Like, if you're, I mean, taking things two years at a time or three years at a time. I think you're right about that. So I don't know. I'm torn. I think, I'm with you. I think in Kevin that, you know, he's going to ask for the moon. he's going to ask for as much as he possibly can. Last time the Seahawks were negotiating with Wilson,

there was a lot of rumors and reports that he was going to be asking for a fully guaranteed contract, and then he ended up not taking a fully guaranteed contract. Yeah, that was, remember, oh, he hired a baseball agent and he got a baseball contract. What he ended up with? A pretty typical football contract. Yeah, and now that the three-year $85 million

is easily the floor of his contract because of what Kirk Cousins were able to get, maybe now he's like, okay, well, I don't necessarily need to like use a fully guaranteed contract as my, you know, negotiating ceiling. I'm going to go for something even crazier. And I'm going to get three years 85 million regardless, like guaranteed.

So that's the, and I think that we're talking about cousins and I think that it's, that number is similar, the cousin's number is so interesting. Because I still think, and I think it was me to Kimes brought it up on Twitter today. And this is what you and I, Kevin,

I've talked about this all the time. Paying your quarterback is not the problem. Paying the wrong quarterback is the problem. Paying Russell Wilson's 17% of the cap is not going to cripple your Super Bowl chances. Paying Kirk Cousins 15% of the cap or Matthew Stafford 15.2.4% of the cap, which is what he's getting this year. That is what could cripple you. It's not the idea of paying the quarterback. Mitchell Trubiskey, 2022.

Well, that's never going to happen. That will never ever happen. He will never get to that option. He will either get extended by then or they will not pick up that option. Those are the two things. What about Apocalypse? That is more, the apocalypse is more likely than Mitchell Trabinski making $30 million in 2022. You're just asking for a freezing cold takes tweet.

That's totally fine. That's totally fine. I'm more than willing to accept that if we get to a point where he's making $30 million. And hey, if he's good enough to deserve $30 million, I'm happy to be wrong. Yeah. So what would you like to see happen in the next 24 hours? I mean, as a Seahawks fan, what is the ideal outcome of this? entire thing for you. I mean, I'm completely comfortable with them giving him a set the market

contract in terms of not necessarily doing what he wants and being a percentage of the cap. But at this point, I mean, every guy, every good quarterback, sometimes some mediocre quarterbacks get a reset the market type quarterback contract. And so I'm perfectly comfortable with them doing that. I think it has a possibility of happening. And I'm pretty comfortable with the idea of him taking up a pretty large chunk of their salary cap going forward. So like over the next three years, if it's 15, 17% or whatever, I'm pretty comfortable with that because I think he elevates the offense so much. And frankly, if they're going to want to run this offense that they're running,

which is very, very run-heavy, very play-action-oriented, very deep-shot-oriented. I think he's the perfect quarterback for that. I think the way that he plays, the things that he's strong at, do enough to elevate that offense that it just doesn't make. any sense for me to say, like, if that they're going to try and, like, you know, do something where they can't, or it just doesn't make any sense to me that they could think that it wouldn't be worth it. So I'm totally comfortable with them doing it. I don't know if it's going to happen tonight. Like we said, there's like three-year window here where they could still

resign them. So it's not necessarily like the drop dead deadline. It's just, I think it's probably just more of a negotiating tactic. But, but yeah, it's going to be really interesting kind of like to see what happens tonight and going into tomorrow. I'm with you on all. this. It just every argument about how much that contract would hamstring them elsewhere, I just think about the last couple years and how their problems offensively and especially along the offensive line. It's not that the quarterback was making too much money. It's that Ethan Pochrist never turned into a player. It's that Germain or Fetty wasn't very good and was equally hurt a decent amount. Absolutely. And it's that Tom Cable was the offensive line coach.

These are the things that eventually come back to bite you, not your quarterback making what he's worth on the market. It's terrible team building decisions and terrible infrastructure decisions outside of that. Can I say something? Sure. Yes. I want to give a shout out to the New England Patriots. And here's what.

Trust me, it's all related. Just stay with me here. The Seattle Seahawks built one of the greatest teams when you consider the error they played in and free agency and the passing boom and all that. when you consider what they had to deal with, they built one of the best teams in my lifetime. That lasted for four years.

Okay, okay. Mays, I'm rolling here, buddy. So, they built one of the best teams, I can remember. They had the smartest blueprint I can remember. They realized before anybody else

the value of cheaper quarterbacks, because even Matt Flynn was cheaper. Matt Flynn didn't work out, but he wasn't making $20 million a year back then. The tall cornerbacks were inspired. The way to play defense was inspired. The defensive line rotation was inspired. It was incredible what they did.

It lasted four years. And their second plan, their plan to follow up, one of the best plans in the history of football, did not work. And I think it's a lesson about football that you, these guys are really smart. Pete Carolyn John Steiner's who are the smartest guys in football. Yet they hired Broad Schopenheimer.

Yet they've sort of mismanaged things around Russell to the point we've gotten here. I still believe that they are a lot smarter than a lot of people in the NFL, but I just want to point out just the fickle nature of genius in the NFL and the fact that there's basically one team who's figured out how to do it for 15 years.

I think Andy Reid, you know, obviously he's done it in two places. He's generated that same sort of success, but obviously he's winning the Super Bowls like Belichick and Brady are. So I just want to say, this whole Seahawks decade shows you how fleeting the idea of football geniuses. I agree, but I also think that part of the reason that they've struggled in this era after that stretch is because the blueprint that made them successful during that stretch is the one they're still

trying to follow in a lot of ways, and the league and the game changes so quickly that if you don't change with it, you can't maintain the same strategy for 10 straight years. They won while running the ball and kind of being this defensive team in 2013, but now they still want to be that. And in reality, you should be a team built around Russell Wilson. That's how you can win. I will say having at the peak of their powers, Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, Bobby Wagner, KJ, Wright. I mean, that stuff helps.

And now it's basically just bawling out Bobby Wagner on his own. And then obviously Frank Clark and some of the new guys. The defense was transcended. But at the same time, you could kind of shift your organizational philosophy around the players that you have. Sure. But I mean, just think about all those cornerbacks they had. I mean, that was just an amazing team. Oh, it's a most stack team in recent memory when you go top to bottom.

But I still think there's a way they could have helped themselves more than they could have, more than they have over the last couple seasons. Yeah. Along these lines, like it's, I think a lot of people in Seattle or at least something, there's a minority that I think does think it's a good idea to trade Russell Wilson because then they could, you know, load up on draft picks, load up on cash and build another defense that'll mirror, you know, the 20 whatever it was

Is that minority of people just Pete Carroll? Maybe, maybe. There's this idea that if they can trade Russell Wilson, then they'll just go back to that defense. Like, that defense was a one in a million thing because it was a bunch of mid-round picks and Earl Thomas. And, I mean, it was just, it was literally one of the greatest defenses of all time.

It's like, oh, let's just rebuild the 85 bears. Like, no, it doesn't work like that. I mean, like you said, it's fleeting success. is so fleeting in the NFL. NFL teams are such fragile ecosystems. If you take one thing out, it can completely change the whole dynamic.

The one thing I think that is the most constant is the quarterback. And I think getting rid to Russ Wilson at this point, I don't think it's going to happen, but it would just be complete folly by the Seahawks. I totally with you. That's exactly what I was going to say, is that it's fleeting and

there are so many different ways to build a winner, but the safest, most consistent, most reliable way to do so is having one of the best quarterbacks in the league. And if you're willing to step away from that person, the uncertainty, no matter how many resources come in his, to replace him, is so pronounced and it is so scary that it's just never a place I would want to be if I had one of those guys in my building. That's it. Boom. Yeah. To me, yeah, it's a no-brainer. But at the same time, a lot of the things the Seahawks do lately have been a little bit mystifying. So, you know, anything could happen, really. That's the kind of the crazy

part of this whole situation. That's why I'm like a little bit nervous about everything. A little bit. You seem very, very afraid, buddy. And it's okay. If I were in your shoes, I also would be. But it's, again, I tuned it this morning. And this is how I feel about the whole thing. It's like, I've rooted for a team that has never had a quarterback my entire life. And the notion that you could have one and you be like, you know what? I'm not sure about this guy. It's just for all the people that have never rooted for a good quarterback. It's so upsetting to watch. It's like, please just understand what you have because some of us have lived

on the other side of this for way too long. Kevin, you want to say anything else? You got anything else? No. Shouts to the New England Patriots, shouts to teams that know how to play, pay their quarterback, and, uh, magic. All right, that's all we got. We will be back on Thursday with our regularly scheduled draft programming. Until then,

uh, we really appreciate you guys helping Danny through this tough time and we'll talk to you soon.