The Ringer NFL Show - The Super Bowl Gambling Bonanza

Episode Date: February 5, 2021

Joe House and Warren Sharp break down every possible angle previewing Super Bowl LV and talk themselves through a slew of bets including the totals, game props, team props, player props, player totals, and more. Hosts: Joe House and Warren Sharp Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, hey, everybody, before we get to today's Super Bowl gambling bonanza, I want to remind you guys immediately after the Super Bowl, the Ringer NFL show will be going live. We've been doing it every week of the playoffs. It's been extraordinarily fun, interesting, lots of great analysis. Kevin Clark and Nora Princiotti are there to break down every angle from the game. Make sure you are subscribe. to the ringer's YouTube channel, YouTube.com slash the ringer, and following on the Twitter at Ringer NFL.

Stick around and we will be right back. Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm Warren Sharp. I am joined by Joe House in this the best episode of the year, Mr. House. How are you doing tonight? My man, Warren Sharp. What a time to be alive.

Super Bowl 55 is right. around the corner. It's a matchup of the Pharaoh and Fatrick. You tweeted it out. These nicknames are outrageous. Who is ever calling Patrick Mahomes? Fatrick. When did that ever happen? No clue, but we should have called this whole Super Bowl, Patrick versus the Pharaoh, from day one. That's some alliteration right there, even though there's one with an F and one with a P. It's perfect. It's right up my alley. Speaking of right up my alley, there are a whole bunch of storylines that we will dispense with quickly because this is an alley of wagers. This is an alley of return on investment. And this is an alley full of passing yardage, passing touchdowns,

passes thrown and passes caught. I can't wait, Warren, sir. I'm so jacked up. We got a lot of good info to give to the lovely listeners here. We're going to hit them with some great props throughout this sucker and I can't wait to dive into it. All right, Sharpie. Let's go ahead and take care of some of these preliminaries. We have some breaking news as it relates to Cameron Bray. We have a little update on the weather. We have a point of view on whether or not the weather is going to impact anything.

We've, it seems like, survived haircut gate. So fingers crossed on that one. But let's go ahead and talk through some of these news items before we get to the important meat of the day. You mentioned before we got going there was a little bit of news about Cambrate. What's the story? Yeah, so Cambrate, you never want to see somebody get added to the injury report during Super Bowl week. But today, Thursday, he was added to the injury report.

Limited practice due to a back. Now, the very later on, actually like a few minutes ago, Ian Rappaport tweeted out some updated information that says it was described as back discomfort. he was pulled out of an abundance of caution as of right now he does indeed plan to play but you know backs they can act up they could calm down we'll have to see how that goes from a day to day basis we still have levante david going extremely extremely under the radar buddy i will tell you if this guy pops up during the game not at 100 percent or has to leave the game early massive and nobody's talking about it. And maybe he's going to be perfectly fine. But for second day in a row, he's limited with a hamstring injury, not ideal for him. We still have Laveam Bell

being limited in practice. And of course, Patrick Mahomes back for another day of full participation, despite the toe injury that he suffered. And we're still dealing with Sammy Watkins as a limited participant. So it's going to be interesting to see what we see Friday's injury report. And we'll go from there from the injury front. Yeah. So on that note, one of the ankles that you have been touting, we talked about it on last week's show, it's in your report, is the fact that these guys are all at home. They are operating from home base. So the treatment that they can get is the very best kind of treatment from people that they trust in environments that they're comfortable with. they can sleep in their own beds all the way up until midday Saturday,

whenever it is that the chiefs arrive in Tampa, right? Absolutely. It is very useful for these teams to be resting at home and to be getting all the treatment that they want. Think about it this way. Media Day two days ago, Patrick Mahomes would have been walking around on a podium, sitting at a thing surrounded by tens and tens of people. asking him questions and sitting there and then having to walk around throughout the whole room.

He was sitting at a table in the chief's facility, zooming with somebody. He could have been having a heating pad or ice on his toe this whole time. You know, it was perfect for him and his recovery. So it's very beneficial for all of these guys. I expect more players to be close to 100% for this game because of the way that we've had the training the last couple of weeks and the rehab. than most Super Bowls. And it's the way we want it.

I mean, I know that come 2022, we will be hoping for a return to normalcy in terms of the Super Bowl and all the hoopla and the spectacle of it. But there is some kind of, maybe we'll see from the performance of the game, you know, in terms of actual gameplay,

if these guys reflect, you know, if it's a really high level of play, of execution, which I think we're both anticipating if we can draw a correlation to this added rest that they're getting. And maybe the NFL figures out a way to cut these guys some slack going forward. Probably not, but, you know, it's okay to dream, right? Yeah. And along those lines, let's talk about the weather because we don't want injuries to affect this game much and we don't want weather to affect this game much either. And weather has been a very interesting thing. Normally, you think Florida, you think pop-up storms, you think uneasy weather patterns all over the place.

And so maybe it's sunny one minute, why maybe it's rainy the next. This weather system, okay, is very different. And I've been tracking it like a damn meteorologist for several days now, getting an understanding as to how this thing is forming, where it's moving, how the, how the jet streams are impacting where this thing is moving and how quickly it's moving. So this is very abnormal. This is not, well, let me just say it's not abnormal, but it's just not the typical pop-up storms. Maybe it's going to rain. Maybe it's not. This is a big system that was forming in the Gulf of Mexico. and now what it looks like without getting into all the nitty gritty details is it's going to be moving past the stadium to the east out over the Atlantic Ocean prior to the kickoff of this game. Now, there may be some lingering drizzle for a little bit, but this whole system is moving through much quicker.

At this point in time that I'm recording this with you on Thursday night, just 24 hours prior on Wednesday night, the forecast was looking substantially worse, rain through most of the first half, if not into the third quarter. And I'm not talking about, oh, I'm pulling up an app and it's telling me at this, like, hour long period in the day, this is what it's going to do. You have to look at the actual radar. You have to study the system itself to get a better understanding and a feel for it. So bottom line, I'm growing increasingly optimistic that Mother Nature is not going to be the third participant in this game. And that's the way that I would prefer to have it.

The rain would absolutely help you if you're betting on Tampa Bay. If you're betting on the under, you would love for a downpour, like a soaking, drenching rain during the beginning of the game. Either way, it's going to help the team that's better in the trenches and that's better on the ground. And in all those cases, that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But I don't think, as of the time we're recording this Thursday night, that the weather is actually going to be a factor here from the rain perspective.

Well, speaking of things that don't seem like they're going to be a factor, and I'm knocking very hard on wood, which is the top of my head right now, it does not seem like we're going to have a COVID interruption or a material COVID impact, notwithstanding the very, very close scare we had with the Kansas City Chiefs Barber and the haircuts he was administering and him getting sent out right to pasture mid-cut. I don't remember whose head he had in his head. hands at the moment. But, you know, again, I'm knocking on wood. Did we survive haircut gate? We survived haircut gate. And you're looking at me on the camera. And I am rocking like a very nice tight fade that you can see. And it is, it is beautiful. And I did it literally in 10 minutes for myself. I am a professional at cutting my own hair. I used to cut somebody's hair in college as well. but I am a professional at cutting my own hair. People marvel how quickly I'm capable of getting my hair cut by myself. And I got to say, it was an impressive job.

I'm patting myself on the back. But I think all these guys, you can't even risk bringing the barber in and all this type of stuff. Have your wife cut your hair. Let it grow out for a few extra days. Cut it the morning of the game, right? Like what does that could do? You're not going to get positive test at that point in time.

You got hours to kill kickoffs at six something. Just make sure you get out of the way from anybody else out there. I think it's smart that Jazele left Tom Brady by himself at home. The dude is becoming an animal. His brain's going to be so big. His head is not going to be able to be held up by his neck in this game because he's getting so smart studying all this film. I can't wait to see what he does out on the field. Well, this is what I was worried about my own self because I have your 55 page report.

it very clever Super Bowl 55. So we do 55 pages. Now let me ask you, next year, 56 pages. Well, next year, here's the thing. It's actually going to be more than this potentially. And I'll tell you why. Because I had a buddy of mine who looked at it and said, what font did you use? I said, size 10. He said, you idiot, you're supposed to use size 12. I can barely read this thing. So I went back into it and I increased it to size 12 on my copy and it turned into 70 pages. So my fear is that next year, regardless of his 55 Super Bowl, 56 Super Bowl, the thing's going to be longer than that. But I'd rather people read it than try to like meet some goal. I never even, it sort of was random that it hit 55 pages.

And truthfully, there is a cover sheet. There is a table of content. That cuts out two pages of it. But then I added four pages of heat maps at the end. So the PDF itself is like 59 pages. I know. You're a goddamn maniac and I'm mad at you because I'm looking at the 10 point font version and I'm old. I mean, you see, I got the readers on.

I always got to run with the readers when we're in this low, low font environment. I feel bad. I sent it Chris Mortensen. You know how old Chris Mortensen is? He was reading the report and, you know, he never said anything. He's such a nice guy. but like I felt bad. You know, these people that are up in their,

up in years. Think about us old guy, Sharpie. You got to think about the older generations of, of people that might be interested in this. So we won't make that mistake next time. Well, fortunately,

I don't think my head's going to fall off my shoulders from all the information that I gleaned from this thing because you did a great job of summarizing the highlights. But one of the things at the very outset of this report, it's an awesome point that you make. And speaking of Tom Brady at home,

is the fact that in the first time in the history of the Super Bowl, there is a home team. And there is a question right off the bat, right out of the, right off the jump. What does that mean in terms of the preparation? Does it favor the offenses? Does it favor the defenses? The fact that these teams are coming together with essentially a, you know, not essentially a literal buy week in between, all that extra preparation and all that rest. Is there a side that, you know, tends to be favored under these kinds of circumstances?

It's so unusual that I don't think that we know. I really am curious myself as to which side of the football this is going to benefit the most. Certainly Todd Bowles, certainly Steve Spagnolo, these defensive coordinators, they've got a ton of resources in their mind. They get more time to think about experiment with things. it's not the first week, right? It's not the first week, but it's the second week, the week that we're in now that these teams usually are in the host cities and doing all this other stuff. And yeah, they're installing some things or they're talking about things and they're running

through some things. But in the back of their mind, they're always thinking, do somebody spying on me? What's that chef doing? What's this cook doing? This person who's bringing waters into our room. Are they hearing what we're saying? Like, you never know what could be going on for. that perspective. There's a lot of people that get extremely, I'll just tell you this, like,

NFL teams, coaches themselves, some of the most paranoid people you will ever come across. I mean, I don't, like, these aren't conspiracy theorists. Like, we're not talking about like aliens and UFOs and that level of paranoia, but these are people that are extremely, extremely paranoid. And I don't mean to insult people who believe in aliens and UFOs. But, you know, these, these coaches are just, you never know. So they will, we will, we. be far less paranoid, far more in their comfort zone working this whole week at their home base. And I don't really know. I think it's always interesting.

Here's one concern that I have is a lot of times coaches, offensive coaches in particular, when they have extra time, they come out with these weird ideas. And a lot of times they don't work. So they try something really weird and different to start a game. After a buy week, they come out with a different strategy. and sometimes it ends up not really working. So I have a lot of trust in Andy Reid. I don't think we're going to have that problem with him. But it is interesting to think about what they're going to try to incorporate here.

That could be new. And just keep in mind, yeah, they might work new things in. Some of it might work. Some of it may not. And it could end up derailing a little bit some of their momentum at the beginning in this game. If on a key third down, they go to this play that they dug out the well and it just backfires completely.

well, then, you know, then we're going to get a punt, perhaps. So we don't want that. No, we do not want that. I would be fine if there were no punts whatsoever in this game. And I don't, I didn't get a chance to check the over, under on a total punts. Was it five and a half? Was that where it came in? Before we jumped on here to see where the juice was and what that number is.

But whatever, I'm rooting for the under. I'll bet the under on that just because that's the outcome that I want. And that's the nice square play that you would expect that of me. But let's go ahead and start sizing up exactly what you just teed up there, which is in the very first place, Andy Reed and the Kansas City Chiefs on the offensive side of the football. The great question marks surrounding what they're going to be capable of doing resides entirely on this reshuffled offensive line. And we talked about it a bit last week, and you gave some kind of forecasting, some foreshunds, and foreshadowing on what you were kind of anticipating might be a game script out of Kansas City to deal with the fact that they have, you know, shuffling pieces on that offensive line.

Let's dive into it a little bit. Well, I'll try to keep it as simple as possible. They need to stick with what got them here, which is the passing game and what allowed them to beat the bucks the first time around, which was the highest pass rate on early downs in the first three quarters that they had over the course of the entire season. Some coaches may decide we should run the ball a little bit more because we're down tackles and we're shuffling our entire offensive line around. And there's a lot of uncertainty.

And we want to protect a quarterback and make sure. No, no, just quite bluntly, no. The bucks are outstanding stopping the run. Their secondary is where they're weak. And House, I'm going to go back to a tenant that we. brought up at the beginning of the season and I've referred back to time and time again. Don't do what the opposing coach wants you to do. Todd Bowles would absolutely love it if Andy Reed had Patrick Mahomes hand the ball off to a running

back. That is a win before the play outcome is even determined here. So they must continue to keep the ball in Patrick Mahomes' hands and let him throw the football down the field. They're far more run heavy than they were at the beginning of the season. And I really doubt even without these tackles, they're going to go to a run-centric approach. I'm not going to even spend a lot of time talking about that because I think it's so out of likelihood that that actually occurs. But what I will say is that you can wear down a pass rush by throwing the ball a lot.

And so maybe that pass rush in the first quarter of the bucks is getting after Patrick Mahomes a bit. And maybe Patrick Mahomes take shorter dropbacks to get rid of the ball pretty quick. And maybe Andy Reid doesn't test his tackles too much early on with deeper dropbacks. But just maybe by the third quarter and into the start of the fourth quarter, that defensive line is worn down thanks to all this pass rush. that they've had to do that they don't normally do. This team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense, they've played only two other teams that were

pass heavy in the top 15 in the NFL in terms of pass rate. Only one of those games featured a pass heavy approach from that team. And that was the first game against the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta played them again, week 17, went with a much more run heavy approach, probably trying to get a better draft pick. I don't know what they were doing there. That was the dumbest game I ever saw. And then they played the Washington football team, and Washington did not have Alex Smith,

could not drop back and throw the ball a million times like they would have liked to do with Alex Smith, quick dropbacks, have him scan the defense, act like a point guard. They had Taylor Heineke, so they ran the ball a lot more there. Two teams that actually were run heavy that turned to the pass to try to attack this Kansas City, sorry, this Tampa Bay Bucks defense, the Chicago Bears and the L.A. Rams, two run-focused teams that turned to massively high pass rates in the 70s percent rates, and they both beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I expect Patrick Mahomes to stick with the pass. I also hope that they use a lot of pre-snap motion coupled with play action on the same

dropbacks because Tampa's defense stinks against that and their bottom 10. And no team in the playoffs so far has used one single single. snap against the Tampa Bay Bucks that featured pre-snap motion followed by play action. And as you guys know, there's a big difference. Pre-snap motion happens before the snap. It's sending a guy in motion to try to help determine what coverage the defense is playing, get a little bit of an advantage over that. And play action obviously occurs after the snap to make the linebackers and the rest

of the defense who's looking at the quarterback think this could be a run play. using those on the same exact snap have benefited the Kansas City Chiefs a lot and nobody else uses that more often than Andy Reed and the Bucks have not faced a single snap of that so far in the playoffs. So I think that could help as well, help as offensive line as well. Well, I have a question about that that feeds into some strategy questions I have for you about what you what todd bowls might do. And based on the lack of success that the Bucks defense had in the first half against Kansas City, the only reason that game ended up close, it was 27 to 10 going into the fourth quarter.

And, you know, the Bucks did make some adjustments in the second half that allowed them to sort of get back into it. But the outcome never really felt in doubt in week 12. But I want to talk about that play action aspect of what you're describing in particular. The chiefs only ran the ball 15 times in week 12. And in view of what Tampa knows the chiefs want to do and anticipate, you know, out of, out of the chiefs, is it credible to even play the run against the chiefs? Like, if I'm Tampa, if I'm Todd Bowles, I just, I want to solve for the past. I want to be in the very best position to defend the past. I don't give a rat's ass about the Kansas Chiefs running the ball.

I'm not going to lose this football game because Levi-on-Bell ran for 200 yards. So play action, suck it. That's sort of one strategy element. What do you think about that? I would be trying whatever I could to encourage Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes to hand the ball off on the ground. So whatever it takes, whatever you have to do from the defensive side of things, however many men you're sticking in the box or how every few men you're sticking in the box, whatever it takes.

I mean, I don't disagree with you whatsoever. Todd Bowles should absolutely be trying to get Andy Reid to run the football a lot in this game. So let's talk about the lack of success that the Bucks had, especially in the first half of week 12, and things that bowls might dial up. So first, very little blitzing by Tampa. in week 12, right? And it seems like Tampa has bit down hard on just rushing four. They had terrific success against the Packers last week, or two weeks ago, and just

rushing four. Do you anticipate any more blitzing out of Todd Bowls in the Super Bowl? Yeah, I think they're going to change up a lot. I think they're going to utilize a little bit more blitzing. I think they also should be utilizing some different coverages. We saw massive splits with middle of field open versus closed. And unfortunately, you know, I'm trying to share some things that the viewers at home can watch and say, hey, I'm noticing this like they discussed it on the pod.

You can't really see the alignment of the safeties when you're watching the TV copy because they zoom in on how many guys are in a box and the receivers, obviously, in the offensive line. But you can't see generally back to what the safeties are doing. But you have what's called middle of the field open, which is two high safeties. And so they're spread out, you know, covering the length of the field. If you just envision two guys standing equidistant apart, there's a space in between them. That's middle of the field open. Middle of the field closed means that there's a single safety standing in the middle of the field, not two guys there.

So the middle of field is closed. And sometimes you can have like four guys that are deep. There's a variety of different coverages, but it's still going to be middle of the field. open if there's even four guys back there. At any rate, Patch Mahomes had massive splits against that. He was much better when he threw against middle of field closed defenses when there was a single high safety back there as opposed to middle field open. So I think Todd Bowles is going to use some of that and play some different coverages. He's going to do some different things with trying to get pressure. I think he's going to go into his bag and try to do as much different as possible.

the secondary coach was interviewed. He said, we underestimated as much as you hear about it and as much as you can look at it on film. We underestimated the speed of Tyreek and we're going to make some adjustments to that. He's a totally different guy when you actually get him out on the field and you try to run with him. You realize quickly how great this guy is, how quick and how fast he is. So they're going to make some adjustments there. I do expect a lot of adjustments from Todd Bowles and this defense all across, variety of disciplines there.

Yeah. So my second question, strategy-wise, and this is all me started trying to tee up some of these props that I'm biting down pretty hard on that I want to bounce off of you. Man versus Zone. I know that, you know, Tampa had over the balance of that week 12 game, greater success in man than Zone. how's that sort of play out? Do you think what are you anticipating in this Super Bowl game?

Yeah, I think we're going to get a variety thrown at Patrick Mahomes. I think ideally you don't do one thing and just keep doing it. He's too good. So you play different coverages every single down. I mean, Steve Spagnolo is great at this. Like every single play, the defense is doing something different. That's what Todd Bowles needs to do. That's exactly what Todd Bowles needs to do.

On, you know, they modified some things over the course of the game. They, in the first meeting, they used a certain coverage and a certain rate of zone in the first quarter. In the second quarter, they made a big shift to a zone heavy scheme. And on early down attempts, there were 17 dropbacks. He was playing zone on 16 of 17 of those. So he shifted to far more zone in the second quarter than man. So I think he's going to come out with a variety of different coverages.

Patrick Mahomes is great against a lot of different things. He's great against a lot of different things. So it's not like you're going to find, oh, my God, well, let's just do this because he really struggles against that. No, he's really good against so many different things. But you've got to try to change things up. You got to try to trick him with some of your simulated pressures and drop guys back into coverages and try to get uncovered blitzers that are going to be able to come in.

And who knows, maybe you hope from a defensive side of the ball that Mahomes is toe he maybe nicks it or something early in the game, steps on it wrong or something, and then he's not quite 100%, so now some of your pressures could get to him a little bit easier. All right, my wagering wizards, let's celebrate the 55th edition of the big game with exclusive 55 to one odds on Fandul Sportsbook. If you never tried Fandul before, new users can bet on either team and get 55 to 1 odds when Kansas City plays Tampa Bay.

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That's 1-800-426-25-37. All right, let's go to the other side of the ball. One of the most interesting elements of the work that you did, and that I was really surprised to see was how good Kansas City is on third down. The reason that it particularly caught my eye is because it seemed like watching that Green Bay game that the Green Bay Packers could not stop Tom Brady on third down from any

yardage at all for the entire game. I mean, it felt like Tampa was 27 of 28 on third down conversions. Now, I'm exaggerating to make the point, right? But the bucks were unstoppable. And it was particularly Tom Brady, who was unstoppable through a combination of skill, decision-making, execution. You want the rock in that homie's hands. You want the rock in the goat's hands on third down. When important shit is on the line, a trip to the Super Bowl was on the line.

They decimated that awful Green Bay third-down defense. Kansas City presents an entirely different kind of challenge. They have an excellent third down defense against the pass. How are you sizing up that matchup? I think it's one of the matchups is going to decide the game. Honestly, it sort of snowballs from what happens on first down. We've talked about it a lot on here. No need to get into all the details throughout all the numbers of how much the bucks

run the ball on first down. and how relatively inefficient those runs tend to be, but the same exact thing happened against the Green Bay Packers, and that is why they had to turn a lot to Tom Brady on third down. And actually, House, I'll just give this up to the good listeners on here. I'm going to do a Super Bowl contest on Twitter. I'm probably going to announce it like, I don't know, Friday or Saturday. I don't know exactly the day.

But I'm going to throw into a pot $100 for every time the Tom Brady hands the ball, off to a running back on first down. He did it, I think, 19 times. So we're talking about close to $2,000. He did 19 times against the Packers last week. And somebody's going to win that. I'm just giving it away on Twitter. Every time a running back runs, gets a handoff on first down for the bucks this weekend. There goes another hundred bucks. So at Sharp Football on Twitter, I'll announce it there. But at any rate, those runs lead to this team being forced into a lot of third downs. Once we talk about props. I'm sure we're going to get into this angle because there's some stuff here I like as well. But I feel like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Tom Brady are going to be forced into third

downs quite a bit in this game. And it's going to be incumbent upon him to convert on these third downs. The problem is that the Kansas City Chiefs, as you said, are a much different defense than the Green Bay Packers were. The Kansas City Chiefs are allowing just 26% of third and longs to be converted. That is number three in the NFL. That is 10% better than the NFL average of 36%. 10 percentage points. It's more than 10% better, but it's 10 percentage points better. So they are really good at forcing you. And I'm sure we're going to talk about in a minute why they're good and how they're good with their strengths on the perimeter with their cornerbacks, but they're great in these third and long situations. And also pay close attention. These guys

hold a shitload. These d'is, the, the, the safeties, Kansas City holds a shitload. And it'll be really interesting to see how that gets called in the Super Bowl, but they're very grabby. And then Tony Romo was talking about it in the Bill's game, like, oh, wow, these guys are so sticky. He kept saying the word, I don't know if you remember, because it was almost two weeks ago, but he kept using the word sticky.

Yeah, that's because they're grabbing the jerseys and running with these guys hands on him. So I expect we're going to see some of that. but it's just going to be very vital, therefore, that you get these runs that Tampa's inevitably going to call on first down to gain five yards on average, to keep yourself out of these third and long situations. If those runs aren't gaining at least five yards on average, you're in a world of hurt because you're going to wind up in a lot more third downs than you would like. And Tom Brady is going to be asked to pull a rabbit out of his hat again.

And I just don't know if he's going to be able to do it enough in this game. He'll do it sometimes. but can he do it enough to keep moving the chains on a series and put up points? You know, what are you anticipating in terms of the success of Tampa? Because I think we both agree and you're putting your money where your mouth is on that Twitter feed with this contest that the bucks are going to run the ball on early downs. It's what they do. It's their game plan.

And we have no reason to think that they're going to move from that. The chiefs on early downs don't have a great run. defense, I think. I think they're, their middle last third in terms of ranking in the entire NFL over the course of the season. So what if Tampa is able to establish a run and start rushing the ball for, you know, four and a half yards, five yards carry on early downs? How does that impact what, what Kansas City's defensive game plan might consist of? Well, I think Kansas City is still going to have to do what they do, but I think their ability, if Tampa is able to get the ground game going, it's going to be a massive boon to them, right? It's going to be, it's going to allow

Tom Brady to convert fewer third and long situations, and it's going to keep this offense on schedule much more often. I mean, when you look at the beginning part of my report, I talk so much about early down success. If you ignore turnovers, especially in the playoffs, efficiency on early downs and being able to bypass third downs, that is like the single largest predictor of the outcome of a game. It's the most correlated statistic to winning a game apart from turnovers, is ability to avoid third downs and be efficient on early downs. And that is my biggest concern.

The chiefs because they pass the ball a ton, avoid third downs a lot offensively. The bucks, because they run the ball on first down and give up a play more or less and are like, okay, fine, we'll be okay if we have a third and short. They end up being very poor at early down efficiency. And so if they can run and they can stay on schedule and they can bypass third downs, boy, we're going to be in for quite a game, quite a game. And it's going to put a lot more pressure on Patrick. Holmes and that offense because they'll also probably have less time to work with because

you're going to see more conversions, more of Tampa moving the ball down the field closer to scoring territory. And so despite me thinking that it's inefficient, you and I both know they're going to come out and start it and do it and see if the chiefs are able to stop it. And chiefs can't stop it. They're going to just keep doing it the whole game long. So that and that's the game script that keeps the game within a single score. right it has that kind of feel to it that's the game script that that favors the under under 56 and unprecedentedly high I mean not completely unprecedented but you know an all time high kind of total out there and I think that fits the the approach of a lot of folks that back Tampa and

have been backing Tampa successfully up to this point you know it's it's the old how do you know beating my homes is is keeping the ball out of his hands uh theory but I don't subscribe to that outcome. I don't think that's my lean at this point is on a high scoring, high passing frequency kind of game. I think we've done enough kind of foreplay here. Let's start talking about some of the props that are out there and, you know, the kind of implied game scripts that go along with these props.

and then we'll get to a place where, you know, we'll talk about the side that I have in mind and either you'll agree or disagree and the same thing with the total. And we'll just see if we can't give out some good guidance here. This is what we're all here for. This is the time. This is what it's all been building up to this whole two weeks is finding props that we love sharing them, rooting for some of the same things with all the listeners. And keep in mind, you know, all of us probably are going to be betting a fair amount of money just because it's the Super Bowl and we want to. And plus, we're not able to do much else but bet on the Super Bowl over the next few days because of the pandemic that we're living in. But make sure you're doing it

responsibly within your own means. Everybody's got a different budget. I can just assure you some of the pros and the guys that I'm working with. I mean, it's ridiculous. Obviously, I'm not in New Jersey. I'm not in Vegas, but the bags of cash these guys are working through to keep getting down at these spots and get it pulling out from the reserves and getting deliveries and bringing more in. I mean, it's absolutely incredible what is going on with the amount of money that with the prop markets as big as they are with more and more spots having numbers out there. But the one key, I'll just say, and then we'll dive into the individual props house,

is that you could look at an odd screen. You can see, oh my God, this book out in Vegas is at three, and this book just moved to two and a half. And now all the other books are seeing that action. And so they might start moving. And you can see everything on what's called a screen and all the other books have access to what's going on at all the other sports books. So everybody's seeing what everybody's at for the side and the total. But they don't have that for how many rushing yards will Patrick Mahomes have. They don't know that at a book in New Jersey, they just got buried on the over for three limit bets.

And even a spot down the street in New Jersey doesn't know that that book just got hit on that prop. And so they might still have a low number. And so now the pros are going to go to the next spot and bet their number. So it's just a lot easier to find bad numbers, betting props and get more money down on these props. It takes work. It takes a lot of work. but it's easier now than it was several years ago. And that's why we're seeing a lot more value in props

and we're betting a lot more props this year than we've done in the past. Well, let's go ahead and start with some of the low-hanging fruit. Because we talked about the game script that we think makes the most sense for Kansas City. And that is a lot of passing, pass on first down, pass on second down, pass on third down, and if necessary pass on fourth down. that sets up for my homes past attempts i've seen it at 40 and a half my book has it at 41 and a half right now and it also sets up for my homes on on the completions i see it at 27 and a half i'm playing the over on past attempts at 41 and a half and i'm playing the over on past completions at 27 and

half for both of those i have to lay a little juice on the book that i i'm playing these at but um you know, the game script, the thesis we have for why that's the pathway to success for Kansas City. You explained it. We also have the proof. We have what Kansas City did against Tampa in week 12 and notwithstanding what Todd Bowles is going to bring to the table. The only way for Kansas City to have success is through this volume approach to the pass, controlling the line a scrimmage with passing short passes what you described as a strategy they might employ at the beginning of the game to soften up that pass rush. Those are two that I feel like I'm going to play decent amounts on both.

What's your reaction? Reaction is I don't disagree. I prefer one more so than the other. But what I will say is is it simple. I wanted to study the weather. and normally it's better to get on an over bet early on when the lines first come out because you're going to get the better number than if you wait. And for a lot of our unders, we're waiting for as long as we can to try to get a better

number. Now there's certain unders that we can't wait on and we have to go early because we know other guys like ourselves are going to be on the same ones. And so we want to beat them to the punch. In other cases, we're letting the public bet some of these games towards the over. And then we're going to come back on unders. But there are certain situations where I'd rather wait and take a slightly worse number, but have much more confirmation that I'm doing the right thing.

And when we saw weather start to arise a couple of days ago and it looked like this rain might come. And then yesterday and last night, it looked really bad. Like I would have not advised any betting on overs for Patrick Mahomes attempts or completions or any of the type of stuff. now that the weather looks like it's moving past, I could give the green light to executing those transactions. But I will say, you know, keep in mind that the weather could change. And we may not be, but if it rains and if it rains hard, you're going to see a lot more running and you're going to see less passing, certainly less completions. So that's the one caveat that I would make, have that in mind. But I think right now the weather looks okay. And so I don't mind either of those.

Okay. One other angle on my homes, and this one is a little more risky, and it's rushing yards. Over 19.5 is the number that's available on the screen. I'm looking at, I've seen 18 and a half. Also, the thesis there is that that is another way for Kansas City to defase the risk around the rotating, shuffling offensive line. And Kansas City, city ran the ball successfully at the quarterback position in week 12. What do you think about an overplay on Mahomes with his two feet? Yeah. Again, this seems like it could be wise. If we look at what happened last year to Mahomes rushing prop, it opened much, much, much, much higher than this. And it got bet to the over.

A lot of overmoney came in on that prop. And then he had some kneel downs. And then the prop ended up losing. He didn't get it early enough. We've heard the story from many other people, so we don't have to belabor it any. But this number is substantially lower than it was before, primarily because of the concerns with Mahom's toe. But I think the fact that he's had the ability to stay at home and rest as much as he has

is going to allow him to be in a better position to hit this total than he otherwise would. Secondly, I think the past rush and the issues with the offensive line, are going to allow pressure to get to him a little bit more often, which could create situations where he's running the football more, where he's scrambling for positive yardage more often than if he against the Buffalo Bills, where the pass rush really wasn't getting to him. And he's just sitting back in the pocket and firing the ball down the football field. A quarterback's not going to scramble if he's not under pressure.

You don't scramble if you have 10 seconds to sit in the pocket, survey the field and do something with it. Like you don't scramble at those. You scramble when stuff breaks down around you. Your protection isn't there. And you're like, well, I could try to heave this one. The receiver doesn't have his eyes turn. Maybe he'll turn and catch it. But here, I can gain eight yards if I just run. So let me just do that. That's when you're going to gain yards. I think we're going to see a little bit more of that. I know it's very contrarian because you got the whole toe thing and people are down on the toe. And maybe they're right. Maybe they're right. Maybe they think the toe is going to be a problem. And it will.

be. But from everything I'm aware of, I think the toe is going to be in good shape, at least, to start the game. And so I don't mind that prop at all. Yeah. And he had over 19 and a half yards and more than half of Kansas City's games this year. He had 28 yards against Tampa in week 12. You just explained why, as long as that toe is healthy, we like that running around part of this quite a bit. I want to talk about Tom Brady before we get to the Kansas City. receivers. I have less confidence about Tom Brady passing across the board. The only Brady angle that I feel comfortable with at all on this is attempts. And I'm seeing that out there at 39 and a half attempts. I'm worried about Brady yards. I'm worried about completions because I

don't trust the Kansas City defense to stop the bucks from running the football. So I'm really only willing to make kind of one Tom Brady quarterback base bet. And that's over 39 and a half attempts. I don't want to pepper the whole board with yards and with passing touchdowns and with completions just to ward off the possibility to protect my myself from Tampa getting the ball, getting going and playoff Lenny getting gone especially. What's your sense on Brady? Am I being too pessimistic about the goat? No, but what I will say is this.

There's one thing that you are banking on. You're factoring in what the Bucks offense is going to do against the Chiefs defense. But if the Chief's offense has a lot of success against the Bucs defense, then the scoreboard may four. force Tom Brady and the Bucks to pass the ball a little bit more than they normally would. We haven't seen a game where this team has been down for a while, right? They've won like most of their games. Some of them haven't even been that close, at least at the tail end of the regular season. And so, you know, they've, they've been able to

just do what they want to do offensively. But it's a totally different situation if they start trailing. And Tom Brady knows more than anybody. The, the, the desperate. that it takes to come back and win a Super Bowl, right? Like, you can't screw around. You can't waste plays. And so I don't care if if Kansas City is up by 10 points in the third quarter, those first down runs aren't even going to be happening, right? Those third, there's first down runs are going to be first down passes at that point in time. So you have to, when you're handicapping Brady, who knows, maybe you think that they actually have a lead and maybe they're doing well in the second half and then they will be running the football a little bit more often. I think when you look at this

Chief's defense and how good they are at the perimeter wide receivers, I think that some of those attempts will be difficult to be completed. And so we probably will have more attempts that fall incomplete when Brady is targeting the perimeter, but higher completion rate when he's targeting the slot, the running backs, and the tight ends out of the backfield. Yeah. And I want to make clear. I understand that, you know, picking attempts out of all of those sort of categories in view of a game script that I'm worried about, which is Tampa having success on the run, those two ideas are kind of incongruous. I am acknowledging that. I'm just saying, you know, this is a nice corollary play to go along with what you described, which is

Tampa being down and that these attempts start cranking. up in response to Tampa being down. And since I think Kansas City is going to be throwing the ball a ton, I feel comfortable with a Brady over on attempts. That's, that's the logic of it. Yeah. No, I don't, you know, it's not something for me, it's not something that I've bet, but I can't sit here and tell you you're wrong. So that's as best I can do on that one. Well, I'll take that. It feels pretty good. Let's talk about, um, chief's receivers. So I, with, with the idea that Kansas City is going to be throwing the ball all over the place. Obviously, the two big targets are Tyree Kill and Travis Kelsey.

I think that the bucks are not going to tolerate, permit, even contemplate any kind of a repeat out of hill from what we saw in week 12, a record setting kind of performance. So if they are keying in some kind of double coverage or with extra eyes in terms of the coverage they're going to play, doesn't that open up a zone kind of option for Kelsey? Isn't that doesn't anything that would tend to have the effect of trying to rain in Tyree Kill redound to the benefit of Travis Kelsey? Well, I think it does. That's for sure. I will say that a lot of people out there, like I've heard people say, oh, well, you got to bet Tyree Kill under because there's no way Todd Bowles, he's trying to become a head coach. There's no way that he would allow Tyree Kill to get as many yards as he did in the last game.

First of all, Tyree Kill's not getting the same number of yards. Are you insane? Like that was like a ridiculous once in a 100 year flood type performance, right? He's not, he's that probably like this is very unlikely. it could happen, it's a non-zero chance, but it's very unlikely that he's having that level of performance, even if Tampa played the same exact defense, okay? But Tampa is playing a different type of defense. That being said, what do you think Andy Reid is just going to sit here and say, like, okay, well, now they're playing this different defense. Oh, shit, well, we can't go to Tyreek now. Hell no, they're going to fucking move Tyreek all around. All this pre-stop motion, what is the

pre-stop motion going to do? It's going to screw up all the double teams that you got. You might have, oh, he's standing over here. We got this guy and this guy behind. him. We're going to try to bracken him up, but now he's going across the line. But now he's coming back. And, you know, there's going to be a lot of stuff that they do. And I think that the Bucks communicate pretty well in the secondary for the most part. And they're going to try to pass guys off. And they're going to, but Andy Reid's got two weeks to work with this. All of that being said, like, so I'm not going to totally crap on Tyreek being able to do something in this game. But I will say that tell me a time that a defense has completely taken Travis Kelsey out of a game.

I mean, like, this dude is so in sync with Patrick Mahomes that I think it's going to be very difficult to erase Travis Kelsey from this game. He's a core part of this offense. And even if you got A.B. up. And even if you got Sammy Watkins up and, you know, all these other guys that are there, they're, they always are getting the ball at a certain number of past attempts to Travis Kelsey. He's got a super high floor. And so, you know, his receiving yards and his catches, like they're high, but they're high for a reason. Yeah. So that's what I'm on. I'm on Kelsey and Tyree Kill both guys over the yardage totals. Neither one of them, the props are set at 100 yards. I think both of them are good for 100 yards. I haven't seen anything to suggest that there's a team, a football team, a defense on planet Earth that can keep Tyree Kill from, from catching 100 yards worth of ball.

He might only have two catches and he'll get those, those 100 yards. And I like the same thing for Kelsey. Kelsey's had over 100 yards, seven of his past 10 games. And one of those games was 98 yards. I'm playing Kelsey over 98 and a half yards. That's what I'm seeing.

I'm playing Hill over 94 and a half yards. And I'm going to leave alone the receptions. I'm just going to play the yards because there is obviously a correlation quantity of receptions and yards, but I like those yards totals. Let me just tell you, and I don't, but I'll just say the reason why this is like one of the biggest square bets on the board is betting Tyree Kill over these yards. And I could see why you like it. I would offer this suggestion or just an alternative.

You could take it or leave it. I'm listening. I'm listening. You could like I will tell you that on Sunday afternoon, I can almost guarantee. you, a list is going to be sent to me of the strongest shit that these guys are betting, okay? And I can guarantee you almost, almost positively, that Tyree Kill under receiving yards is going to be on that list. And it's going to be a prop that the wise guys and all the sharpest groups are going to be fading. Now, I don't know that for a fact. And I haven't bet it over or

under. But what I will say is this, there are different options that you can have if you like Tyree Kill. You could, instead of laying whatever juice and the high yards and the fact that the yards probably opened at a much lower number days ago and now it's been bed up and now you have to lay juice and you're getting a worse from all that crap. I think at a couple of books, it's got, will Tyree Kill have 100 receiving yards plus a touchdown? And you're getting like plus 240 or plus 250 for that prop rather than just saying I'm going to lay minus 125 or minus 130 over 92 or four yards receiving. You can also do a prop where he is plus 200 to be the leading receiver in this game.

That's another way that you could try to get exposure if you think Tyree Kill could have a good game, but you don't want to lay as much on his over receiving yards prop. And these props have a little bit better payback. So just a couple of different avenues there to contemplate. I like it a lot. speaking of like a lot i have been uh trafficking in quite a bit of all your guys the all of the uh it's war sharp sharp in the sharpies i don't know war sharp sharp's the the crew uh dan pzuda uh lord reebs rich rearbar and and my homie t a cleveland i've been uh all over their content

um i think lord rebs put out a nice write up today on the kansas city chiefs receiving core and some angles to take a look at. One that jumped off the page at me that I liked both the angle and the price of it was Mikhail Hardman and on a longest reception over 14 and a half yards. And there's a nice justification for it. And pretty much what boils down to this, he is a vertical threat kind of guy. If he catches any balls, they tend to be two thirds of the time, better than two thirds of the time, 15 yards or more. He had a, he was right on the brink of a 90 yard reception against

his Tampa Bay defense in week 12. It didn't occur. And I won't say bad things about anybody because of it. But McCull Hardeman over 14 and a half yards as long as reception. Nice angle. Thank you, Lord Rebes. You have any reason to argue with Lord Rebes? Don't have any reason to argue with Lord Rebes. I have not bet that. I mean, I'll tell you the ones that I bet. That's not one that I've bet, but I haven't thought about it, dug into the details enough by myself, but Lord Reed knows his stuff. Yes, that, that's what will, uh, will be satisfied with that. Okay, well, look, uh, I don't have too much more in the way of, of props beyond, you know, those kinds of, of player specific things. Now, there's a whole ton, a whole variety

of fun stuff out there. I am going to play, for instance, Tom Brady over, on rushing yards over half a yard because I do think that he will fall forward on either a third down, short third down conversion or a short fourth down conversion. And, you know, part of the way that that prop hits is he's not kneeling down and getting negative yards at the end of a football game. So that would suggest, you know, that I don't think that Tampa is going to have a lead at the end of the game and Brady's in kneel down mode. But there's a decent price out there at Brady over half a yard.

Isn't that a decent play? Haven't we been watching this for 20 years now? We have. I kind of prefer, you know, I am worried. It's not just whether or not you're going to kneel down at the end of the game, but Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are so good. First of all, they defer the kick all the time. let's pretend Tampa starts with the ball.

The chiefs are going to be in this situation where they're going to get the ball to start of the second half, so the beginning of third quarter, and if they have it late in the second quarter, so they get a score at the end of the first half and get the ball to start the second half, that's something they love to do. And there is a chance that they could score a touchdown or kick a field goal at the end of the first half with like 25 seconds left in the clock. And at that point, Tom Brady could kneel. on it. And so you may get a kneel down in the first half that you're not expecting. And now you need

two damn sneaks to get over it. So I'm just throwing that out there that in the in the handicapper of the thought process, that could happen. One that I like that doesn't really, he could go for to run the football on a third down too. But I like will Tampa convert a fourth down? I actually like both these teams to convert a fourth down. And that's exactly where Tom Brady could be getting his yard in the sneak and getting the first down. Keep in mind, keep in mind that let's say it's fourth in an inch, fourth and two inches, and the guy gets the first down, that is still a yard gain. They credit you for a yard gain.

So you would hit your prop and I would hit Tampa converting a fourth down, even if he actually doesn't gain a full yard on that place. So don't worry about, oh, my God, he didn't actually gain a full yard on this run. They give you a yard for that. Yeah, thank God. And we know that when we take this into account. Now, I have one absolutely absurd prop, speaking of Tom Brady rushing yards, that I just like your reaction to. This is on Fandual. I saw it, you know, our good pals at the FD. And it was the first player in the Super Bowl in this game to rush for 10 yards. and Tom Brady was available on this prop at 10,000 to 1. So if I bet $10 and Tom Brady rushes for 10 yards, that's $1,000 in my pocket.

I love the return. And now let me just give you this scenario before you call me square again. But you can call me square again anyway. Here's the deal. Tampa wins either. Well, how about this? Kansas City wins. the toss and defers.

And Tampa has the ball on the first drive of the game. And the first drive of the game, we get to one of these third downs because they've run the ball into a brick wall, as is the Byron, Byron left which way. And then they throw the ball for four yards on second down to hopefully Cameron Brayton, who's going to be healthy.

And now it's third and five and a half or six. And Godwin's out in medium range, 12 yards down the field. Evans is sprinting down the sideline and Miller is wherever he is. And the middle of the football field is wide open and the goat sees. Look at this. I can go get right up the middle of the field 10 easy yards. And he just, you know, he puts on he's been, we know he's not going to be,

be tired. He's been sleeping in his own bed. The kids are wherever he puts on on his running shoes right up the middle. 10 yards, Tom Brady, 10,000 to one. Tell me that can't happen. Anything is possible. Kevin Barnett, anything is possible. But no, what I loved and why I was excited for you to continue going on that.

And I actually closed my eyes for part of it. Because I was picturing like in your mind, you're envisioning this. And this is exactly what every single better out there with these props starts putting together in their mind. They paint themselves the picture of how they think. this random prop is going to hit and all these plus money big big payday props are going to hit well if only this and that happened and then then we could see this and then maybe he'll do something that he's never done this year and you know all of a sudden and and so that's exactly the way that people bet on a lot of these props that have the big payday and they're going to ask their buddies

just what you asked me is this impossible or could this actually happen and the answer is of course anything is possible. Anything is possible. I'm not going to deter you from putting, I mean, you're going to, you're going to drink hundreds of dollars of alcohol, I'm sure. Like, what's $10,000 on a 10,000 to one prop? I don't think it's any concern. I'm not going to tell you not to do that.

Have some fun with it. Have some fun. And that's precisely the point. Hey, America, that's the dumbest bet on planet Earth. Let there be no doubt. That is absolutely, it's not square. It's way worse than square. What's worse than square?

I don't know. but it is the most unlikely thing you can conceive of. He's rushed for his longest run this year is four yards, Tom Brady. So there's no chance this is going to hit. But why can't we dream a little? It's the Super Bowl. It's a new year. It's where you have a new horizons.

There's a vaccine. We're thinking great thoughts about everything. And that's why we would make a dumb bet like that. I'm thinking great thoughts about everything, but our friend Mattress Mac, who I want to talk about later. But let's keep rolling with a few more of these props over the next couple of minutes. What else do we have on tap? I'll give you one or two that I like, but shoot out any others that you like their house.

Well, I speaking of Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes and rushing, there are very good odds for both of them to score a touchdown. And I like the idea of one or both of them. Again, Tom Brady falling over the goal line. in a short yardage kind of thing. And that prop, I think Brady is like in the north of plus 400 was what I saw. And Mahomes was just south of plus 400. So good, positive, you know, better than three to one, almost four to one odds for Mahomes and better than four to one odds for Brady.

And for both of them, you know, we've already articulated how and why it is that Mahomes, if his foot is healthy, if his toe is healthy, we'll be scrambling around. We've seen my mind's eye can see Patrick Mahomes out, you know, running in a short yard. They're all the six yard line. They do run play action. He doesn't like what he sees in terms of Kelsey being covered on the right side. So he takes off to the left side and he's faster than whoever's eyeball on him and he gets to the end zone and I bam, that's a cash. And then Brady's just falling over the goal line.

I like the plus money odds on both of those. I understand that, you know, the odds are not in my favor for those. but both of those feel like, you know, for props in this kind of environment, a fun thing to play. I'll throw out a couple on mine and we'll go back to a couple more for you before we wrap up with some other thoughts. But I like Leonard Furnett over three and a half receptions, talked about this on the show with Chris a couple of days ago. He's actually leading the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in catches the last two weeks. He's second in targets. Tom Brady likes throwing to his running backs.

is a reliable player and Kansas City struggles to cover running back. So it's not that high of a threshold at three and a half receptions. That is one that I like. And another one that I like is Tampa Bay to have over three, over five and a half third down conversions. That's at plus money. You can get that. We were getting at plus 125. I'm just looking at the fact.

And again, I'm playing this out in my mind. Tampa Bay runs a little bit on first down, gets forced into some of these third downs. They will have to convert on third downs. If they don't, okay, then you're likely going to be able to pair this with, will Tampa convert a fourth down to say yes, they will. And I think you got a really nice sandwich there where you could hit them both. But if they're not converting enough third downs, then they're going to have to convert a fourth down at some point in time.

And so you can bet them to convert a fourth down. So those are a couple that I like there. I'm also wondering about the Tampa Bay pass cutters. speaking of playoff, Lenny. What do you think about as between Evans and Godwin? The number for Evans is pretty low and his target rate has really increased over the last, you know, third of the season and these playoffs, especially, it seems like notwithstanding, there was a concern.

It looked like he hyper extended something in one of the games, but he came back fine. and he has continued the trust between he and Brady has, has been there. He's been a top red zone target for Brady all season long. And I think he's caught a touchdown in each of the playoff games in this, this postseason. I'm looking at Mike Evans' receptions prop as a potential angle here.

And what I'm seeing, it's available at four and a half. half, do you have a feel for Mike Evans' receptions? It's, I'll just tell you this. On the surface, it seemed extremely low. It seemed like, oh, my God, this looks too low, too good to be true if you're trying to bet the over. But I will say, we talked about it earlier. The defensive backs at the perimeter, which is where Mike Evans runs most of his routes

are extremely good. Where the Kansas City Chiefs are weak is in the slot. That's Chris Godwin territory. That's where Tom Brady went in the second half of that game to try to come back in the game. through 11 of his 14 wide receiver targets to the slot. Now, Mike Evans runs routes in the slot. Let's not kid ourselves that he never goes into the slot and runs route.

He has done that in the past at times. So he maybe catches one or two of those. But the ones in the perimeter, I'm not going to dissuade you if that's really what you want to do. I think that the number seems pretty low on the surface. But I personally am not going to be going over that. I think that this is more of a Godwin game than a Nguyen game. Evans game, but Evans does have some high upside. If some of those deep passes

do connect, if the DB misplaces the ball in the air or something like that, I mean, they're going to be throwing a number of deep balls to Mike Evans. Yeah, I like Godwin and you have been on Godwin through these playoffs because he has been kind of that mid-range

possession guy that Brady craves and Brady obviously trusts him in the slot. The only reason I tap the brakes at all on Godwin, now Godwin, Now Godwin catches four balls, no problem. Godwin catches five balls, no problem. He doesn't, for whatever reason, catch six balls a ton of times throughout the season.

I think it only happened, I don't know how many times. It wasn't a very high number of six catches or more for Godwin, just five games. I see it right now. One of those, of course, was against the Chiefs where he had eight of nine targets for 97 yards. But that was the reason that I was a little, I don't, I'm not worried about Godwin getting to five. catches. I am, you know, I'm not, I don't feel as comfortable with him at six, uh, touches. But your, your point on, on Evans, where on the face of it, it looks like a low number, but, you know, diving in a bit deeper in the analytics suggests that maybe Evans, there's no

value on that either. In my book, those are the same, uh, juice. You have to say, it's the same price for both of those numbers of receptions. So maybe it's a stay away for, for, for both of them. Um, let's talk about some like game theory kind of aspects of this. We, had talked last week about the possibility of this game opening up kind of slow and that, you know, in terms of potential scoring, and there were a handful of factors that you kind of had in mind, as much as anything having to do with, you know, maybe, maybe Russ. I mean, what's the theory for why the game might not open up with both offenses roaring ahead and, and and scoring a whole ton of points in the first half.

Well, I think in a nutshell, Tampa's past rush is going to be at its strongest. Andy Reid's probably not going to be calling as many deeper dropbacks for Patrick Mahomes. I wouldn't. I mean, these are thoughts, right? Who knows? Yeah. This is just us talking about, you know. I don't think that Andy Reid's going to put his tackles out there on an island that

quickly in the game. On the Tampa side, Tampa's a dog. They may fall behind at some point. They may have to abandon the passing attack, but they're definitely coming. out running the football to start this game at the beginning of the game. Now, I would love it. I want to hear from all the listeners. If the first play of this game, Tom Brady sticks the ball into the belly of his running back, pulls it out and uses play action and throws the ball down the field. I want you guys lighten up my Twitter feed with like the giff of, I don't know what the

actor's name, standing up and applauding. I want all the applauding gifts in my timeline when they do that. But if they hand the ball off on that first down, guess what? That's 100 more dollars into the pot. But I think that's when they're more likely to run the football. So that's going to be coming out a little bit slow, forced into more third downs. And so that's the way the game could start off a little bit slow. There was the threat of weather. I don't think that's going to be there. That would have been more likely to happen in the first quarter than the third or fourth quarters. But I don't know that we're going to get that at all in the first quarter. So it's more like what what the pass rush is and those other items that I'm meant.

there. Yeah. So the prop that we're kind of like circling right here, um, as we're thinking about it, there's a, a few books are offering this, um, that more points will be scored in the second half slash overtime than in the first half. And I think there's a, the price is pretty decent on that. Um, are you, how do you feel about that potential, uh, angle for this one? Well, so, you know, my model, I've talked about this before. I like the under, um, when the number first, opened and I was able to get a little piece of 57, small, meaningless bet to me, but it was, you know, what they had available at the time, limit bet at the time. And as I'm looking at this game, though, I am thinking that there is the potential that it starts off slow. And I don't know

that I want to run to bet first half under 27 and a half, although I think that it could go under 27 and a half potentially. I am worried that we are talking about the number one most pass heavy team in the NFL in the Kansas City Chiefs and the number one most pass heavy team on second and third downs in the NFL in Tampa Bay Buccaneers going up against each other. We're going to have a lot of passes on second and third downs in this game. It does not necessarily mean that the game is going to shoot over the total. It just means that there's going to be a lot of passes thrown in the first half of this game, probably more than typical.

And I'm also just this X factor of how do these guys start off because they haven't been in the host city and they haven't been all jittery. nervous doing all this media stuff all week long and it's such a foreign thing. These guys, Chiefs coming in Saturday afternoon like a normal game and the buck's sleeping in their own beds. I just think that this game is going to be very different to start. So maybe that helps the first half scoring a little bit. But I felt like I didn't really want to bet the first half total.

At least I haven't yet. But what I felt stronger about is to say that there will be more scoring in the second half once these offenses get going and they're no doubt to me whichever team is down in the second half even if it's only by a score they're going to be cranking balls to the wall to put up points and I think either of these two offenses if they're passing a lot on these respective defenses probably going to have some success so I like that angle from you okay well let's let's go ahead we've been talking about appetizers here for a while I love appetizers I could make a whole meal out of appetizers. But let's go ahead and get to the entree. There's there's sides and there's total.

The line is still Kansas City minus three at this moment. Places are applying a little bit more juice to that. You can buy up to three and a half for Tampa if that's something that you're comfortable with. But right now the line is Kansas City minus three and the total is at 56. I have preferences on on both of those that I'm prepared to share but I want to hear if you have any preferences yet. I mean, it's Thursday. So I know that you haven't bit down hard on anything. No, I mean, right now, I'm still riding with a really good situation that I found myself in where I've got some, I'm going to have a nice hit on Kansas City futures to win the Super Bowl. I'm going to have a nice hit on a Tampa Bay proposition for Tampa to just beat these guys at this point in time. It was a predict the exact

Super Bowl outcome. And I did that before the conference championships. So I'm going to be focusing on hedging a little bit to make some money there to ensure that I'm locking up what I want because I do like this game to me, I have no interest right now in laying three without or taking three here. I think this is a very good number from that perspective. There are other things that I'm going be looking at in terms of betting this game. I will tell you, there's no doubt about it. The line is moving in this direction for a reason. You're not going to see this. You're not going to be like, oh my God, it's the Super Bowl. I wonder where the sharpest guys in the world, what they're betting. You can see it on the screen in these numbers. They have bet Tampa Bay and they have bet

the game to go under the total. You may disagree with that. You may win. They may lose. They're not going to win every single one of these. I can guarantee you when you factor in the props and all the other stuff, those guys are going to have winning seasons or winning outcomes on the Super Bowl far often then they're going to lose. The only way they're going to lose, I'll just say this house, the only way those guys, the guys that I'm seeing, the spots I'm looking at, the information I'm receiving, the only way they're going to lose is if this game is 45 to 42, you know, type game in overtime potentially. Like if it's a massively high scoring game and everybody's hitting their overs on the props, those guys are going to lose. But if it, if it,

Is any other scenario than that? They're going to clean up even if Kansas City wins this game by four points. But I don't really have a strong opinion on the side or the total other than what I've shared so far. What are you looking at here? Well, the thing that I feel strongest about, and we hinted at it last week, is just a regular old Kansas City money line play. And it comes down to a very basic and square kind of proposition. and it's this. It's a one score game with four minutes left in the football game and Kansas City gets the ball back after Tampa, you know, has scored to go up by something less than eight

points. And I just cannot in good conscience under any scenario, even with Tom Brady, the goat standing there on the other side of the ball, I just cannot permit myself to bet against Patrick Mahomes. And that I just, my whole gambling of, approach to this Super Bowl is if Patrick Mahomes, if it, I think it will, it could be, uh, I don't expect it to be blowout on, on either side. I just will not tolerate Kansas city getting the ball at the end of the game and being on on Tampa. Now, I do have a hedge out there. I've already bet Tampa and the under. I already have that, that in there. It's a parlay and I have the Tampa money line as well, but I'm going to the biggest play that I'm going to make of this

Super Bowl and I'm waiting until Sunday like we talked about it. The money line for Kansas City has been going down since it opened 10 days ago. I'm going to wait until Sunday morning when that big Tampa money plows in right at the end and I'm going to go ahead and play the Kansas City money line. That's going to be the biggest bet that I make of probably the entire NFL season. And, you know, I'm I have the hedge out there for Tampa and the under. But But I'm going to also play a tiny bit on the over just because of what I want to root for. That's my fun sort of angle on it. But the thing that I'm really plowing into is just the regular old Kansas City money line.

Andy Reed and Patrick Mahoney, back to back, Super Bowl champions. The goat has already made his point. He demonstrated to everybody. He made the right decision. He left behind New England and Belichick. Belichick proved to us that he needed Tom Brady. Tom Brady proved it to us that Belichick couldn't do anything without. Adam and he went down to Tampa and delivered to them another trip to the Super Bowl.

Bruce Ariens has kissed him on the top of his head and probably on the lips. They love each other. It's a wonderful victory for Tampa. Win or lose, Tampa's hosting the Super Bowl. It's a W for Tampa no matter how you slice it. I'm just going with Kansas City. Well, I can't fault you. The money line is probably smart way waiting.

Like I said, right down the money lines every single day. see how it drops over time. You're doing the right things there. I will just say for everybody listening at home, I do not advise making the Super Bowl aside on the Super Bowl, your biggest bet of the year. There's not enough value to do that on this game, even though the money line is mispriced. But I know you. I know you like to have fun with it. I know you're doing this with money that you can afford to lose if you have to. So, you know, take that into consideration. But, you know, I'll be, I'll certainly, if I don't have anything on the side, I'll be pulling for you on that one house. I do want to add real quick before we sign off here that, that you see it on Twitter.

There's guys that report on the biggest bets that are coming in on Twitter. And this book just accepted a $2 million bed and on this side at this number and all this stuff. That's great. Report away. When you mentioned that dude, Mattress Mac, though, if you don't put a caveat in the tweet that says this is all part of a promotion that this guy's doing and he's massively hedged his promotion on this giveaway stuff at his mattress store with the but with the million of dollars a bet that he's placed on Tampa Bay you're doing all of your readers a disservice making it

appear that you're just reporting a bet just like you're reporting any other bets that are out there this guy is hedging a there's a lot of people out there getting into sports bank Don't have any freaking clue who Mattress Mac is. He's a guy who has a furniture store, mattress store, whatever, and he runs promotions and he bets on the other side of it to hedge himself. And he makes these big bets and he gets a lot of publicity and press. Just realize that that bet is not something you'd be like, oh shit. The biggest bet.

How you guys know the biggest bet on the Super Bowl so far is $3.5 million on Tampa Bay plus three and a half. This should be a lock. Nobody's going to bet that much money on it unless they really know what they're doing. This guy doesn't know what he's doing. It's a total promotion and publicity stunt for him. And it's a hedge against what he's given up on the other side when people are betting on Kansas City at his store. So I just want to put that out there because I'm seeing a lot of people reporting on this thing as if it's like a normal bet from a big better. And it's absolutely not.

It's a hedge. Yeah, I know that it made you mad. This is the second Mattis I've seen you since Greg Williams. head hunting at the end of that Denver game. That's the point. Like Mattress Mac, the whole thing is don't give this guy oxygen. He's,

he's, this is, he has a marketing budget. The homie is out there doing marketing for his store. That's fine. That's a local story. The national media doesn't need to talk about that, dude.

Let's move on and get into like, you know, some real heavy hitters, putting down some real money on some real angles in this football game. Let's not talk about this dude ever again. That's the resolution for 2022. I vow never to mention his name again on the Ringer podcast network.

Well, Sharpie, that is a Super Bowl preview. We covered a whole bunch of territory. A lot of opportunities out there, hopefully for all of our wagering wizards, our gambling gurus for a little return on investment. You know, I can't let you go until I hear what's on the menu. You got to tell me what's going down in the sharp household. We're sitting in front of the TV. I know you're feeling a little anxiety because you got

a lot of action, but you should feel pretty good because you got all these beautiful hedges in place. You're going to win. You know you're going to win because of the smart bets you made before the playoffs got going. So you can eat and enjoy a little bit. What's on the menu? Oh, well, I'm, I'm enjoying the Super Bowl regardless. It's going to be a winning day regardless to. We've got a lot of props. I mean, we'd have to, I really feel good about some of the action that we've got here. So we'd have to be blindsided to have a bad day. But even so, again, you're betting what you can afford to lose.

So it's not the end of the world. I truthfully have no freaking clue what is on the menu. Let me just tell you most years we're having a few couples over, having a little bit of a party. And I am the one coordinating what big place is delivering food for us. But this year, we don't have that big contingency. And I always over order because I like to be a gracious host. I like to eat the leftovers, all the type of stuff. So my wife said, you're not ordering the food this time.

I'll coordinate what we're doing. She's like, we just got to make sure we're not getting too much that we can actually eat. So I said, that's fine. I've been busy with my 55 pager and all the other stuff I got going on. So I truthfully have no clue what we're doing. But what are you doing, House? So you put your hands in your stuff. stomach is in your wife's hands. I respect that. I understand exactly. It's a wise decision.

You know me. It's go bigger, go home. And this year, for whatever reason, it's part of like 2021, we're flipping this script. I'm normally a right down the middle kind of Super Bowl food consumer. I like your pizza. I like your your wings. I like your nachos. But this year, for whatever reason, I have a handkering. Actually, it's not for whatever reason. I know why. I'm dying for some shrimp. I want a giant shrimp cocktail. And really what that boils down to is, one of my favorite pastimes is going

in Washington, the District of Columbia, lots of great bars with giant wooden countertops. You stroll up to the bar, you sit down. Nice martini, nice shrimp cocktail. Like a gentleman. We just enjoy all the hard work that we put in

Sharpie. It's time. You can let your hair down a little bit with a nice martini shrimp. So I'm getting shrimp. I'm bringing shrimp into the house. I don't know exactly how many, but it's going to be a quantity that's more than six and more than 12 and more than 18 and more than 24. The shrimp are coming in. I have to have wings. The wings are coming in also. It could be dueling dozens. It might be four dozen shrimps and four dozen chicken wings, a whole variety of chicken wings. The shrimp are going to come the way I like them. I will do a little lemon on some. I'll do

There's a nice aoli that I do by hand that I might whip up just for a to change of taste. And then, of course, the traditional shrimp cocktail, you know I'm going to do that. A little extra horseradish on the side. I like it spicy. But wings, shrimp, and it's going to be a clear alcohol kind of night for me. I anticipate. I mean, that probably means vodka, but we'll see what direction it goes in. You're making me hungry, number one.

Number two, I got to ask on a personal note, did you ever go to the third? fish market down in D.C., I forget even what it was called, the place where they pull up with all the whatever they get. It's been transformed over the last half decade because, you know, the wharf, this beautiful development that's gone on down there. Now, they have kept a lot of those old school traditional fish market joints down there. Okay. Well, I used to, my parents used to take me down there a couple times a year. We used to stand there, point into different things and bring back seafood. So I have fond feelings. I haven't been down there in, in, well over two decades probably. But as a youngster, we went down there a fair amount. So that brought me

some fun memories just hearing you talk about the shrimp that you were getting and down in DC. But no, look, you know the pairing's better than I do. If clear alcohol is what is called for, then roll with the punches, my friend. Whatever you do, you don't want to see the shrimp coming up at the end of the night. That's right. We're not going to, there might be other stuff coming up, but it won't be the shrimp. Sharpie, let's edit on that note. We're back next week, right? Did we already top the fact that we're doing a show? We're going to come back next week.

We're going to have a recap to the Super Bowl, talk about some of the highs, the lows, the craziest bets that we're able to hit, the ones that were near misses. It's going to be a fun episode next week with the Verno, you and myself. Looking forward to that, but certainly more so looking forward to the Super Bowl.

Really want to thank all the listeners that have been with us all season long on the Ringer Network. you guys are the best. Hope you guys enjoy the game. Good luck with all your wagering and especially to you House. I hope you really enjoy the Super Bowl. I know it's a massive event for you and I hope it goes well. I promise I will enjoy it. I appreciate all the good wishes and all the best wishes to all our pals out there who have bet the show we're taping it Wednesday. I think it goes up Wednesday, the usual Wednesday ringer NFL show. Until next week, everybody, good R-O-Y.