The Ringer NFL Show - The Teams That Will Define the Offseason | The Ringer NFL Show

Episode Date: February 20, 2020

We discuss the teams that will define this offseason whether it’s because they hold top-five draft picks, have a large amount of cap space, or are in a transition period. We lead with the Dallas Cowboys, a team with an unsigned star quarterback and wide receiver, and the Miami Dolphins, who have the ability to take control of the NFL draft. Hosts: Robert Mays and Kevin Clark Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, it's Liz Kelly and welcome to the Ringer Podcast Network. We've updated our 2020 NFL draft guide this week, where you can find all things draft related leading up to the first round on April 23rd, including scouting reports on each prospect by Danny Kelly and much more. Also, don't forget to check out the Ringer NFL show and the Dannessie Football podcast, live from the Combine next week for an inside look at this year's top draft picks. Hey, guys, it's Maze. Just a quick thing before we get started with today's show, because I'm apparently

Lenny from of Mice and Men. I cracked the memory card as I tried to take it out of my recorder earlier this week. So that is why half of the podcast does not sound great. We had to use the phone call audio before I switched over memory cards. So just wanted to let you guys know before we got started and enjoy the show. To the Bringer-R-N-FL show. I'm Robert Mays. Join as always by Kevin, how you doing, buddy?

I'm doing very well. How are you, Robert Mays? I am doing very well. You're back. I am. Danny Highfitz held down the fort, admirably last week, and now we are ready for the new football season. It starts on February, like, 20th.

As Dan Devine pointed out last week, it took seven minutes into the pod for me to literally send Danny Hyphitz, what the fuck is wrong with you? Which I have never, ever said to you in five years of recording. You've come close. Yeah, I tell you have come close, but it's never actually happened. So it's good to be, it's good to have you back, man. what I'll say. I love Danny Haifist, but you know, comfort and

familiarity is nice. Yeah. It's, uh, I cannot believe the combine. I feel like the combine should either be in March or should be the day after the Super Bowl. Like I feel like we lulls us into like a two week break. That's why everybody was excited about the XFL and now we're just back. It starts,

I leave Monday essentially. I think that's right. Last year was nice because I think last year was the latest I can remember at the combine. It was like early March. This year it's pretty much the time it always is. And no one is ready for it.

I don't think anyone is ready to go to Indianapolis and have the combine be what it is. Mostly because the Super Bowl was in Miami and a lot of NFL writers were out until like five in the morning for many of the nights there. And I guarantee you most of them don't want to go to Indianapolis, which is weirdly a rough stretch. It's actually a pretty grueling couple days. Yeah, I agree with you. And what's interesting because Vic Fangio and Sean McVey are

leaving their assistance home. Fangio's leaving all assistance home. McVeigh is leaving his coordinator's home. I wonder, you know, Belichick has done this in the past. It's really interesting to me to check in every year to see how teams and coaches and assistants and

executives view the combine. And as we kind of do our off-season preview who are in this one, I think it's really interesting to just unpack where the combine stands, just from a do you need to be there standpoint. I totally agree. I was having this conversation with somebody at the Super Bowl. Do you think you'll go next year if it's in L.A.?

Like, will I drive an hour? But like, what will you do? Like, you'll just go to maybe the actual combine and then go home, right? Well, I'll do the same stuff I do in Indy. I mean, like, I think it's kind of analogous last year. I don't go to the Senior Bowl every year, Last year, the game, the NFC championship game was in New Orleans.

So I drove over on Monday without a credential to the Senior Bowl and I sat in a hotel, like the hotel lobby and just talked to GMs for like three hours. And I went back and caught a flight. So like that's, that's the valuable thing. That's my question. Where will you go when it's in LA? I will just go to one hotel? Yeah.

I'll sit in the lobby of a hotel where they are and then just have meetings and do interviews and stuff. That's probably right. It's just because the whole value of the combine is that because it's in Indianapolis, it's completely self-contained. Right. Like everyone is in the same area. But when they move it to L.A., it's just not going to be like that. Like, if you want to go to one hotel and try to pick people off, you might be able to. I will say this.

With NFL coaches, NFL executives, NFL writers, life finds a way when it comes to finding out where these guys are drinking. Okay. It is not hard to find. It is not hard. It will not be hard to find a bunch of tight ends coaches drinking Bud Light Lime at the Venice Whaler this time in two years. But that's kind of what I'm saying is that in LA it's so spread out that it's going to be, I think, a little bit more difficult to figure out exactly where those spots are. I have faith in you, Robert. Let's preview the offseason. So here's what we're doing today. It is February, as I said last week, it's February 17th. You alluded to

this already. There's a lot of stuff that we're going to talk about over the course of the next month or so. So we don't want to get too granular about things. What we're going to do today is we're going to preview what we see as the teams that are going to define the off season. And this could mean a lot of things. So a lot of these teams are going to have picks in the top five because they're going to kind of be the pivot teams when it comes to the draft. But some of these teams are once with a lot of cap space. Some are kind of on the verge of some sort of transition. But these are the teams that in one way or another kind of sit in the cat bird seat

when it comes to this offseason. So the team we're going to start with is the Dallas Cowboys. because I would argue that no team has a more pivotal offseason kind of within their own trajectory, like their own trajectory than Dallas. You think about the fact that they have about $80 million in cap space, but they don't have a quarterback under contract. Their best receiver is not under contract. Their best secondary player is not under contract. There is a lot of decisions that the Cowboys are going to have to make. So let's start with them.

what do you think the Cowboys do when it comes to Dak Amari Cooper and just the rest of their plan this spring? Well, first you build a time machine and don't sign Ezekiel Elliott. That would be my advice. Jerry can invest some of that money

in a time machine. So Jason... It's six minutes and 20 seconds into the podcast and into our second off-season podcast and we just brought up running back value. So we're going to move on very quick. Jason fifth show from over the cap who does a great job. He's visualizing some of the stuff.

And he was doing a chart to show cap space and how many snaps a team is losing to unrestricted free agency. And the Cowboys are at the far right of this particular graph, meaning they're losing a ton of snaps to free agency for now. Yet they have a ton of cap space relative to everybody else. and so they have the money to bring most of these guys back. Does Byron Jones at some point get too expensive

if they're going to sign DAC to a huge money deal and Byron Jones also with the deals they already have on the books? Possibly. That could happen. I think he's the guy that goes by the wayside. He's the guy that goes by the wayside and I got to tell you, if your plan includes losing a corner

like Byron Jones, you probably have a bad plan. You want to keep guys like Byron Jones in the building. That is a premium position. You will, I mean, he's athletic. He's improved a lot since he ended the league. I think that you, if you've mismanaged, this is not like, you know,

there's teams like the Falcons, right, who are just so capped out that you don't, like their spot track page or they're over the cap page like gives me hives, right? This is not that. This is the Cowboys. It's so funny because they have the same amount of cap space as the Bears. Speaking of giving me hives,

I was looking at all this. yesterday. I'm not a happy person, but continue. Well, the Vikings, I'm looking at this, and the Vikings are like $10 million over the cap right now. That's not good. This graph is very interesting. I would look at Jason Fitzgerald's page if you can. But essentially, the Cowboys have the money to make it work. This is about figuring out dollars and cents. The first domino is always going to be Dak, because Dak bet on himself. He's going to make a ton of money. The negotiation essentially starts at Jared Gough, which his cap number is 36 next year.

So we'll see where the numbers come down. Does Patrick Mahomes sign before DAC? Does that change things? I don't know. Is Patrick Mahomes' deal such an outlier because he just won a Super Bowl and is one of the best young quarterbacks or best young players in the history of the sport? I don't know.

I don't know if Patrick Mahomes is a domino or not. What I do know is that Dak Prescott is the domino for the Cowboys. And they've got a lot of, I mean, listen, I don't want to be Jerry Jones right now. So if you had to make a bet on what happens, what would you say? Do you think he gets the tag or do you think he gets extended? Or do you think they don't sign him? I think that's completely off the table.

Yes. I think they franchise DAC because I think Dak knows the value of betting on himself. Even if Dak has a mediocre year next year, he's going to make what Goughman. If they go 8 and 8 next year and Dak Prescott, regresses, there will still be a massive market for him. They know that, okay? When I say they, I mean, I mean, I mean, Doc Prescott and Dak Prescott's agents.

They know that. And so when I look at him betting on himself to this point, he never accepted a deal under his value. He understands his value. There are very few quarterbacks who have gotten to this point at such a young age. Most of these guys take these huge money deals after year three, certainly after year four. But he has shown that he wants to bid on himself.

And I think that there's, I think they're going to have to tag him and play that game. I think they've then signed Cooper. And then it's, if I were to just guess, just guessing, I have no information. I don't have the numbers in front of me that Byron Jones might get too rich for their blood with all the big money being thrown around. That's what I would say as well. So I have a couple questions that I want to ask you. So outside of the Elliott thing, which I think we all know is a mistake. the other ways they've spent their money in the last 12 months.

So, like, signing Lael Collins to a contract extension, giving the deal they did to Jalen Smith, et cetera. Do you think they've missteps in the guys they've chosen to extend, even if we take Dak and Ezekiel Elliott out of the equation? I think that the Elliott contract is obviously, as you said, we're not counting that. That was the misstep. Do you have to sign to Marcus Lawrence?

right? He's a 20 he's a 20 he I think that has to happen right he's at 21 next year Zach Martin's at 15 tyrant Smith's at 13 I mean these are not outrageous deals I'm down though I'm fine with those deals the offensive line deals were older I'm like those I'm okay with it's more would you rather have Jalen Smith or Byron Jones that's kind of the question I would rather have Byron Jones so would I but here's the deal jalen Smith accounts for 3.5% of the cap next year. Okay. He will never make more than 13 million over the course of his contract. And that's in 2020. That's still a lot of money for a lot. I know, no, no, no, that, but that's not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is it's not like they're giving him the Byron Jones contract. What I'm saying is that

Byron Jones is going to get more than that. I don't, I, they, they, their problem is not that they, I mean, I think Byron Jones can probably get 15 a year. But that's, I, I think, that is not an appreciable difference to me for the value of those positions. I think that the reason, my understanding of the way the Cowboys handed out contracts in the last year is that because they were trying to figure out stuff with Amari and Dak, and those guys were like, we're getting top of the market money. We don't care. They went to other guys and were like, do you want to re-sign right now for this and this and this money? And it was kind of a message to send to the locker room. That was my understanding.

So they went to other guys and were trying to create some sort of harmony within the locker room. And that's why other guys got contracts, even if those contracts may not be more valuable to the Cowboys, than the ones they should sign this offseason. So Zavian Howard is at $15 million. Tramaine Johnson got 14.5. This is average. This is average salary. Okay.

the market for guys who kind of, you know, elite guys who don't reach free agency is about 15. But then you have your AJ Boyer. So obviously with Jackson was one of the best corners in football. But it's not like AJ Boyer. We knew how good he was going to be in Jacksonville going into free agency. He's a very, very good player. But his cap hits are over 15. And I think that that, and that was obviously, what, three years ago?

I think that 15 is probably realistic when you're talking about a guy like Byron Jones who is really good at a position where you have to pay a premium. There's a reason that Tremand Johnson makes 14.5 over the life of his deal. So I think that, so if you're looking at that Jaylon Smith contract right now, it's 11.4 is his A.A.V over a six-year deal, which God bless the Cowboys. I love the Cowboys contract structures so much because the reason the Cowboys do six-year contracts is so they can convert based salary into signing bonuses and kick the hand down the road. Same with the L.A. contract same way.

I love that so much. It's like they just don't care about being prudent. So that's why they do this. So it's 11.4. If the Cowboys had gone to Byron Jones a year, ago. Do you think they could have gotten him if the J-1-Smith contract is six years 68? Do you think they could have gotten Byron Jones for six years 80? Maybe. I mean, it depends. Probably, right? But here's the thing, dude. It depends on

if these guys understand how much they can get in free agents. And what his agent would have wanted things like that. It takes two. It's really hard without sitting down knowing negotiations in this particular instance. I'm all for projection and making reckless speculation and all that. But what I'm saying is it's really hard with free agency stuff with the year left and your deal. Do guys want to take the money? I mean, Marcus Peters has a $15 million cap hit next year because Marcus Peters took a deal

where he wanted to stay in Baltimore. That was clear. I was in Baltimore when that extension was signed in January, December, whenever it was. And pretty much everybody... It was December. everybody around the league was saying he could have gotten way, way more in Fray Agency

but he wanted to stay. So 15 is about right. Marcus Peters is obviously he's a star and Byron Jones knows his worth, he's going to get out to Fray Agency. Marcus Beers didn't want to go on that path.

I think all of those guys understand their value. And by the way, by the way, and this is something that that we've talked about before and I've talked about on other shows and people have said this to me. Jerry likes to pay stars.

And that becomes a problem if you're a legitimate star like Dak Prescott or Marry Cooper, because you know your worth and you know that Jerry Jones wants to pay you gobs of money and you have to hold out until that happens. Zika Elliott went to Mexico and just hung out for a while until Jerry Jones was like, oh, oh, you've been on the beach for two months? Here's a bunch of money. Like Jerry Jones seems to blink a lot in these negotiations. So that's why I, so that's a very appropriate point because let's talk about DAC in that line of thinking.

Do you think they screwed this up? Do you think even like, and it's the same thing with Byron Jones. When we were at the combine last year and I was talking to people, you and I were having the same conversations. And somebody said to me at the combine last year as that this is kind of the rumor going around, Dack wanted to reset the market and make the richest contract of all time. That was the big thing that he was seeking a $40 million contract or whatever.

I think that that's been going around for a while and it's also not unrealistic. So I kind of laughed at that. I was like, all right, Jack Prescott, he's going to be the richest. I think that's fine. But you have to remember, it's a league where Kirk Cousins got the biggest guaranteed deal in history at the time because he

played the game correctly. It's about playing the game. It's all about what you can make, not what you're worth. And now as we kind of sit here, his people were right. Like, that's exactly what he should have been after. So if you were Dallas, should they have just given him the Russell Wilson contract last spring? Yeah, I mean, Russell Wilson's going to be the highest

paid player in football next year. He's at 35 in cash, I believe. I think that yeah, maybe a little less I don't know I mean, I think that he's gonna end up getting that so I guess I can see the argument as soon as Wilson signs the deal saying yeah, here you go.

Because if you franchise him this year and then you don't want to franchise him again next year because you think it's a little too rich for your blood and he leaves, that's a worst case scenario, right? It's terrible. That's to me why just give him the money. And last year, Dak had his best season by

far last year. He looked like a different quarterback last season than he had for most of his career, even if you consider the rookie year when he was pretty good. So I can understand why you don't want to pay him for that season, but at the same time, do you think Washington wants

Kurt Cousins right now? I absolutely think they do. Are you joking? Of course they do. Yes. Of course they do. They absolutely do. I think the worst thing you can do is play chicken with these guys and watch them walk in a year or two and you have to start over a quarterback. I think that is the worst decision you can make. It reminds me a little bit of, I said something we talked about the Falcons cat problems, but you know, I did that story a

couple of months ago on Matt Ryan and his contract. And one of the things that Dimitrov said, and I found it interesting, was that, you know, the idea of a quarterback walking or you know, I think that his quote in that story was something like, you know, oh, people said we could have gotten them for 29.5 instead of 30. Why didn't you hold out? And he just thinks, listen, like you run the risk of probably the worst thing in football, which is not having a franchise quarterback. You're not having a quarterback. You're in the wilderness and that's exactly where you don't want to be. Yes. And this is, and this is me talking, but he kind of alluded to it. That's how like lives change when there's a good quarterback versus a bad quarterback. right? I mean, like, I'm talking coaches get fired, you know, they don't even sell sponsorships, yeah, that kind of, I mean, like, think about the difference between having a good quarterback

and not having a good quarterback. I mean, it is, there is nothing, there is nothing, there's no bigger gap in football between the haves and the have-nots as far as a quarterback versus not having a quarterback. And if you have one, you do whatever you can to keep, you know, I don't want to keep plugging over the cap, but they basically had a really,

good, basically had a really good argument for paying your quarterback, that if you understand the cap, paying a great quarterback should never be a problem. That was the headline on the story. And I think that in general, we've seen that. I mean, like, Jimmy Garoppolo is not a $25 million quarterback, but they paid them, and the Niners figured it out. And they drafted well and they figured out how to spend their money, spend their money wisely. I think that I understand that Patrick Mahomes again became yet another rookie quarterback. rookie contract quarterback. I understand that. But the reason they won the Super Bowl is because they had Patrick Mahomes, not because they had Patrick Mahomes at $5 million.

I completely agree with that. And by the way, when they start paying Patrick Holmes 40, they're still probably going to win the Super Bowl during the life of that contract. Who cares if it's $29 million or $36 million? It just doesn't matter. Like, it just doesn't matter. You need that guy. And I wrote a story about it before last season. I wrote about why teams hand out these deals. And when I started to write it, there was kind of a judgment on my side. It was like, well, why would you give a guy $35 million if you don't think he was the guy?

And every single person I talked to essentially told me, you give a guy $35 million because you want to have a guy that's worth $20. And it doesn't matter. Like, you just need a guy that can allow you to be functional. And Dak Proscott more than does that. and I think the way the cowboys have handled this, even if he was being unreasonable, if you want to use that word as a qualifier last year,

I do think they're going to regret the way they've done this. That's it. Yeah, I agree. All right, we're supposed to get to a lot of teams. I know. We just talk about the Cowboys for 20 minutes. All right, some of these are going to be quick. But let's talk about the dolphins.

Oh, okay. I think the dolphins are a team that is interesting for a lot of reasons. One, they have essentially an unlimited amount of cap space. It's the Lindsay low-hand limit does not exist. GIF from. I do not understand that reference, but okay. That's totally fine. And they also are a team that I think controls the draft.

Most draft capital. Because when we, obviously, the Bengals have the number one pick. If we're making bets, the Bengals were going to draft Joe Burrow with. the number one pick. But Miami needs a quarterback, has multiple first round picks, and can do a lot of stuff with it. Who knows how they feel about Tua? I think that's the number one question.

If they like him, I would bet they move to two to get him just because we've seen this happen so many times where you'd rather have the certainty. What do you, what interests you and what are you curious about when it goes, like, when it comes to the Dolphins off season. I want to see what the plan looks like. I sat down with Chris Greer, who's the Dolphins General Manager in December. He mentioned kind of the Niners timetable

where essentially it took them, you know, they had a bunch of high picks. It took them a year longer because of the Jimmy Garoppolo injury. But it wasn't like it was some 10-year, you know, Sam Hinky-style tank here, right?

It was a quick turnaround using high picks to propel up. They take that accident, is essentially what happened. Like, they did not plan on having number two pick last year. Oh, right, right, right, the Niners, right, because the Jimmy Roblo entry. But what I'm saying is, so they pick,

they had the biggest dead cap hit in history, if I'm not mistaken last year. I think the bills were close a couple of years ago. Yeah, the bills had a huge one a couple years ago. Like Mario Williams on these guys. I think the dolphins had more. They had way more transactions than anybody. I wrote about this, you can find it on the ringer,

but in December, Basically, the plan was to have maximum flexibility, and now they have it. They have $89 million in cap space in 2020. That's $200 million salary cap. They have the most draft capital. What I'm interested to see, Robert, is how far they think they are along in this process. Do they go out and sign big free agents along with their draft capital and try to accelerate the process, or do they take one more year and try to do that next year?

Remember, they were in, strangely, in for Trey Flowers last year. And then they kind of did what they did. And it seemed like that was kind of an outlier as far as their plan. Yeah. But that was just, I don't know. I mean, that was just an outlier to their plan again.

And so I'm intrigued to see if they think they can build a talented roster in 2020 or to take one more year to go back to the not tanking well, but let's just say the top five range well. So if I had to guess, I would say the dolphins this year do what the two teams I would compare it to were the Bills and the Colts, both of whom had a lot of cap space over the last couple of seasons, but didn't spend the first year of having.

Yes. And we'll get to both of those teams. But both of those teams had a ton of cap space and did not spend it. They were like, you know what? We were not there yet. Let's be patient.

I assume when it comes to the cap space, the dolphins will do the same thing. I think that the biggest question with them is, is Tua the guy you want to bet big on. Because they're not going to compete now. And I think they probably have the self-awareness to know that. So if you understand that, do you want to bypass the quarterback this year and roll the dice again next year when you again have a ton of salary, a ton of draft capital? That to me is the biggest question.

I think people are penciling them in for drafting two at in the top five, whether they trade up or they stay put. I don't think that's a given, man. Maybe I'm just being naive and when you can get a guy like that. you do it. But I think there's a chance they just keep building this team and roll with Fitzpatrick again next year and say, we have multiple first round picks. We'll find the quarterback next year. Yeah, Chris Greer told me that mistakes are made when you talk yourself into a guy and it's not really there. I think too can certainly be that guy. I don't know what their evaluation is of him, but I think that if you're talking about, and I want to make a bridge here, because I think that

the team that controls a lot of things, maybe even more than Miami, is drum roll please, the Detroit Lions. So you want to talk about the Lions. I think that that's totally fair. Why do you think the Lions deserve to be on this list? Why do you think they're a major player when it comes to whatever happens with this?

So there's two things. They pick it three. So reports are, let's just take them a face value for right now. Reports are that Chase Young is probably going to Washington to anchor Ron Rivera's defense. So there are three.

Do they take a guy? Or do they trade out to somebody? Maybe the dolphins. Maybe someone else. Maybe the Panthers. Or, I mean, what do they do with three? Who pays the king's ransom? And then, what do they do with Darius Slay?

Because I think, so the report is that Darius Slay might get traded this offseason. And that is a premier corner who all of a sudden becomes available. He has one year left on his deal, a four-year, $48 million deal. His cap it is $13 million. It was 15 last year. And that's a guy who really could help any contender or non-contender. And so I think that the Lions, what they do, and by the way, do the Lions draft a quarterback?

Do they draft Tua and stash him and let Stafford play at? out. There were some rumors. I don't believe these for a second, but there was some rumors they might try to trade Matthew Stafford. I don't think that's going to happen. The dead cap charge would be way too much. It's just not worth it. We talked about that in last show. There's just a lot of things Lions can do that can change the face of what the league in 2020 looks like. And by the way, if they trade out to a team for Tua, that changes the next five years of football. To me, that 100% chance that Matthew Stafford is on the Lions next season. A hundred, 98%. that's probably fair.

But I think there is a world where if they think that too is the future, that they would do that. The reason I don't think that happens is because the Lions have to win right now. Yep. Like they're both the GM and the head coach are not in let's draft a quarterback in the top five and not play him mode. So I think they do some stuff as you were talking about with. Chris Greer that is maybe stuff you don't want to do. The Slay thing I do think, I do think they trade him, even though that's not a win now move. Every other thing that Lions do this offseason, I think, will be in the interest of winning

immediately. I don't understand the Darius Lie thing. If I had to guess, and I think we're on the same page when it comes to he's a good player, why let him go? But I think it's a scheme fit, and he is a product of a. different administration sort of deal. And we see it all the time. When a guy gets a huge contract from a different leadership group, a different just

regime, those are the guys that are often available. So this Bob Quinn took over as the GM in what year? Before Patricia, 2016, I'm going to guess. So he got, he took over in 2016. Darius Slay signed his contract to win. Three years ago. So it was after Bob Quinn got there. but Patricia was not in place when that contract was handed out.

So that's how this stuff happens. And I think that if you're looking at a lot of the decisions that the Lions have made over the last couple of years, Patricia probably has some influence in terms of the players that are getting. You got to trust Patricia's instincts. Right? Yeah, exactly. He's crushed it. His track record is so impressive. He's like Belichick.

You just have to trust him. Trust the process. All right. Let's move on. Let's get to another team this. I'm sorry, I just want to make one 10 second point here. When I saw the Slave point or report, it reminded me a little bit of a like a Patriot Way move.

This guy is one year left on his contract. He's really good, but we're going to move him and try to get value. But the problem is that they are so, they've so not done anything else like the Patriots have done to the point that that's your Patriot Way move. or Quadrae Diggs is your Patriot Way move? Like, that's it? Yeah, you're going to give, you're going to learn all the wrong lessons.

You're going to overpay Trey Flowers. And now the whole, you're going to draw the line. And the Patriot Way starts at trading one of the best cornerbacks in football. Okay, let's move on. Yeah, I, again, I'm not on board with a lot of the stuff the Lions have done as of late. Okay, let's talk about the Bengals quickly. Because the reason they're on this list is essentially that they have the number one pick. They don't have a ton of cap space, which is kind of hilarious.

Like, I don't understand how they don't, but this is where we are. When you give out a contract extension is that Bobby Hart, you don't have all the money in the world. Do you think there is any scenario where the Bengals do not draft Joe Burrow number one? Mike Garfellow, phenomenal reporter, tweets out of video today. Phenomenal. Look at you. He's great. Trust me, I agree with you. It's just high praise for Mike Garifo.

You're in a very good mood after spending last week in Europe. I'm so jet lagged. He tweets out this video from NFL Network. And the title is, Joe Burrow not yet committing to the Bengals. The process will play out eventually. I saw that too. I found that so,

like the report obviously is solid. But the actual phrasing of the not yet committing to it is so funny because I would like now for just it to become college football recruiting where it's like Chase Young is lukewarm on the Redskins and now we just have a whole thing and like Ron Rivera has to go to his house and it's like rivals and we have like the big board

and stuff like that's what I like about the Joe Burrow not yet committing to the Bengals thing. They have a page where like the recruiter's name is next to them Yeah exactly exactly they have to send an assistant like their top recruiter I think that it's usually to me

a lot of people have made this point that it was a lot easier for players to strong on their way out when there were huge contracts given and they just wouldn't negotiate. I remember one of the reasons Bill Barsales took Jake Long first overall is he wanted to get that contract signed nice and early. And I remember I'm saying that in a press conference.

So I'm when I was down in Miami. And so, God, it's so funny that you have like such an intimate knowledge of like the 2007 dolphins. I always forget that. Funny is the wrong word. So I think that with the rookie contract, even if Joe Burrow was like, I'm never going to play for you,

they would just draft them. I think so too. Four million bucks. Because it's not enough. So it's an entirely different conversation. So I'm with you. So the worst case scenario is he goes back in the draft, and I don't think Joe Burrow would do that.

So I don't want to get too far down this rabbit hole because we have other teams to talk about and I think that this can be kind of a problematic exercise. do you think 30 seconds, do you think that Bengals should draft Joe Burrow? Or do you think that it would be smarter for them to trade the number one pick for five first round picks and rebuild your entire franchise? So, first of all, it depends who's trading it? Is it the Redskins of the Lions where you might be able to get Tua still?

Or is it, you know, the Panthers? It's seven, right? And I think that a lot of it depends on that. But I would just take Joe Burrow and figure it out later. I think that's probably what I would do as well. I just think it's interesting because you could, in my estimation, I think you could get it ton for it. I mean, I would love to see what.

I kind of think it's, it's, this is a weird thing to say, right? But I kind of feel like it's priceless because the amount of capital. It's kind of the conversation we had about the contracts. The amount of capital. No, because the amount of capital you'd have to give up would so thoroughly wreck your team for the next decade

that, like, what it would be? Five first round picks? Oh, you're talking about from another team's perspective. Yes. Oh, okay. I thought I was talking about from Bengals's perspective.

No, no, no, no. If somebody goes crazy, that's fine. But I'm saying, if you're the Panthers and you're David Tepper, like, why would you come in and hamstring your, and handicap your franchise for the next half decade

by giving up all your first round picks when by the way, you're not, listen, I think Joe Burrow is a really good prospect. I think he's going to be a very good NFL quarterback. But this is not, I'd rather give up five first round picks for Patrick Mahomes if he was available,

someone who's won the Super Bowl. That's why you go, would you give up five first round picks for Patrick Mahomes? Ten. Ten? I mean, I say that as a joke, but like, Okay, here's the hypothetical. Here's the hypothetical. Here's the hypothetical. I think five is a no-brainer.

Okay, here's the hypothetical. Patrick Mahomes is like, I hate, I don't like Kansas City. I'm out. Brevich, and this is obviously not going to happen. He's going to resign. He's going to win Super Bowls forever, all that stuff. This is purely an exercise. So then Brevich calls Ryan Pace and says eight first round picks for Patrick Vich. I do it in two fucking seconds. Because think about it. I think I agree. I think I agree. By the way, by the way, the chiefs have not picked in the first round since drafting Patrick Mahomes, and they're doing pretty good. Think about it just on a practical level, okay? What is the hit rate on first round picks?

It's about half, yeah. So let's say four of those guys turn into, all right, let's even split that. So four of them turn into good players. two of them turn into high-level starters, two of them are starters. You would trade that hall for Patrick Mahomes 100 times out of 100. I agree. I just, I legitimately don't know what the price would be right now. And I think that you and I are both on the same page when it comes to him being a transcendent player.

I mean, like it's. Patrick Mahomes? Yes. Yeah. Like an all-time great quarterback is coming. Yeah. So it's even. for a good quarterback, I think five first round picks if you thought about it not as like

just the price. Walk yourself away from just how that sounds and talk about it a practical level. I think there are other quarterbacks would be worth five. When it comes to Mahomes, I think that eight is not even a conversation to me. Okay. I think you do it and figure it out later. Let's get back to Burrow. If you were Joe Burrow, would you play for the Bengals? Yeah, because I don't think the Bengals are a terrible organization. Hey, it's not like you got the Patriots picking two and three here. You got the Redskins and the Lions. Yeah, I know.

I think the Bengals are fine. The Bengals are frustrating because I think that there are some smart people who work there. Like, I think Duke Tobin's pretty good at his job. But I just feel like the way they make decisions and their risk appetite holds them back. like that's my only real critique of the bangles. You mean never trading anybody, never trading picks. Never spending any money in free agency, you know, bringing back guys that have no business being brought back.

Those are the only things I criticize the Bengals for. Like, the Bengals aren't the Redskins when it comes to just complete mismanagement for the last 20 years. I just think that the Bengals have not positioned themselves to succeed in the modern NFL. So, I mean, that's, we can say a lot worse things about other organizations than that. I agree. All right. So we're going to two more teams. And both of these teams, I think, are, I think you could put them in a similar category. There are teams that are not rebuilding, but have tons of resources. And they are the Colts and the Bills. So on the Colts side of

things, they have $80 million in cap space, but they also have two top. 35 picks. So if you are the Colts right now, what do you think is an ideal offseason for them? So going back to the chart that over the cap made about lost snaps in free agency versus cap space, the far left, which means tons of cap space, but not losing players in free agency, is the dolphins, but that's a different deal. And then the Colts and then the Bills. Yeah, it's so interesting because those teams are at such different points along their trajectory.

What that means is that they have, they're going to have very little turnover or they're just going to be able to keep their core and they're going to be able to add. This is just great team building by Brandon Bean, by Chris Bauer, who we've talked about a lot on this podcast. He's the unofficial general manager of the ringer NFL show.

And I think that, it starts with the quarterback in Indianapolis. Agreed. And I don't know what that looks like. Do they go after? I mean, it sounds like Philip Rivers to Bruce Ariens is a match made in heaven. I understand that. But what is realistic for Indy with the quarterback market?

And do you bring in competition for Brissette or do you just try to get a new quarterback and send Brissette elsewhere even after the contract adjustment last year? I think that Philip Rivers is very much an option for them. I agree. There's a relationship there, obviously, with Reich and all that. Multiple relationships. I mean, Nick Siriani is somebody who I've talked to many times, you know, just about a lot of things. As someone who has a weird, like, obsession with the Chargers, Nick Siriani is someone I've talked to over the years.

And if you talk to Nick Siriani about Philip Rivers, there is an immense respect there. immense. And Frank Reich was obviously the offensive coordinator for the charges for multiple seasons. I think that Rivers would be most set up to succeed with the Colts compared to pretty much any other team in the NFL because their offensive line is excellent because they don't have a vertical passing game. That's not what they're built on. It's all about the intermediate and short areas of the field.

Every single argument for bringing in Philip Rivers, the Colts have to. it on their side. So I think that is absolutely a possibility. If the Colts were not, so the Colts are picking 13th. They have the 35th pick. I don't think the Colts love either of the quarterbacks in this draft. And I also think that there are other quarterbacks. The top two quarterbacks are not, it would be really hard for them to trade up. Correct. Because I think that the Bengals are going to stay put. And I think that there other quarterback needy teams that are more... Also, it would just take a ton for the Bengals or the Redskins or the Lions to want to pick

12th. Yes. And I think that there are other quarterback needy teams that are better positioned to move up. I don't think they pick a quarterback. So I think that, and I don't think they love Brissette. So I wouldn't be surprised to go see them do a Phillip Rivers type of thing. Right. But there's a lot of quarterbacks available in the soft season.

I think that's the merits that makes sense, though. If you don't love percent, I think that's what I would go with. Where are we putting Andy Dalton? I don't know. I mean, you know where I want them, but that's an entirely different thing. The natural conclusion to this podcast is you, you pining for Andy Dalton after the first episode we did four years ago. I already did that on the last podcast. A perfect arc.

Listen, if I, I'd rather have Aaron Rogers, but that's not an option. So I think that I would not be surprised if they ended up. with a different free agent quarterback. I think Rivers is the most likely one. That being said, I don't think that Philip Rivers is going to win you a Super Bowl right now. And if we can see that, how aggressive do the Colts want to be in free agency? Because Chris Ballard's number one defining trait since taking over that job is that he has been patient and he has not done anything that he has not wanted to do.

He has never been ahead of his timeline. I don't think they go gangbusters in free agency. I think they go get Rivers because they think he's an upgrade and they think that he's going to be a really nice influence on whatever this team is right now. And I think that they try to make a run at something next year. That is the hunch I have. Where does James Winston end up in this scenario?

I think he ends up back in Tampa, man. Do you not think so? I think that's the most likely outcome. I guess. I mean, I actually think that the most likely outcome, I'm talking like 50.2% right, is Rivers to Tampa. Just because that seems to have been in the cards, I mean, that was talked about in like January.

That doesn't make any sense to me. On any level, it doesn't make sense to me. I love Philip Rivers. I love Philip Rivers more than anyone else in America, I think. It's not related to Philip Rivers. Philip Rivers is not built to play in the Bucks offense. right now. He's just not. His arm is not there. It doesn't make sense. Yeah. I can see that. And then where about where does Tom Brady end up in this scenario?

I mean, I've always said I think he ends up back in the way. Me too. That makes the most sense. Well, if you had a percentage on that, we're not going to talk about the Raiders because we've already gone too long in other teams. But if you had a percentage on it, what percentage chance do you think Tom Brady ends up back with the Patriots? 65. that's actually good. When you say it, it sounds low, but I think you're probably right. I think that's probably the ballpark.

I think the only way it doesn't happen is if he's just like, I really, really, really, really want to play somewhere else. I think that's true. And I, again, we don't have any inside information here. I don't think anybody, even people that know Tom Brady well, and they're like good Tom Brady reporters.

Ben Affleck didn't get a, got a emoji response. He was on Get Up this morning talking about that. And then he started to go out to flakegate. I was not thinking Ben Affleck. I was thinking about people we know who come to the league and actually have played them with Brady Camp. I knew where you were going, but we have new information this week. And that's that Ben Affleck got an emoji response.

That's really funny. All right. So let's do one more team here. We lump them in with the Colts to a certain degree. And when I said, I don't think the Colts take big swings this off season. I think the Bill's. do. I agree. This is, if you were building kind of their timeline when Brandon Bean took over,

I think this was always the year. And it didn't really matter. They did, other teams with rookie quarterbacks have been more aggressive in year two than the bills were. They've gone out and spent a ton of money that year because it's like, it doesn't matter if the quarterback hits or not. You need to do it now where you're not going to do it. But the bills did not do that in the second year of their rookie quarterback. deal. They waited till year three, I think that was always the plan.

And I feel like this is a team that sees their window right now. They see where the Patriots are. And they're thinking, if we don't do it now, we're never going to do it. And they have almost $90 million in cap space. Does someone like Inacquay makes sense here? So I think anybody is on the table because if you look at their roster, there are no positions that are set. Every single spot outside of safety, I would say, can probably get an upgrade and then maybe linebacker. Because if you want to say they like Milano, you know, maybe they just say, we're going to roll with those two guys. But other than that, I think any spot is

available because they don't have a slot corner. I love Chris Harris there, for example. I just think that that would be an upgrade for them. and they have tons of resources. They're edge rushers. Trent Murphy, I would guess he's going to be back there, but he's very expensive. And I don't know if he's necessarily living up

to what he's going to make next year. So if they move on from him, then you have literally a starting spot and Jerry Hughes is in his 30s. So you absolutely could see an edge rusher there. Interior defensive line, they brought Latulae back, but it was on a discount.

And Oliver, obviously, spoken for. And Oliver is there. But I don't think it's off the table if you see a guy you like and say, we want to upgrade that spot. Offensive line, they had a lot of guys on one-year deals. Quentin Spain is a free agent. They had a lot of kind of stopgap options at those spots. So if you want to go spend on a Joe Thuni, for example,

that's something you can do if you want to. The spot, though, that if we're looking at what their actual holes are is obviously pass catcher. I think that's, that is the area where they, Austin Hooper. So Austin Hooper, they brought in Croft last year,

but I don't think he's necessarily a solution for them. It was similar to all the other deals they signed where it was very short term. They can get out if they want to. So if you want to bring in a tight end, you can't. If you want to go get a receiver in a receiver heavy draft, you can't. I mean, like John Brown,

Cole Beasley, those guys did a nice job. But I understand. It's kind of what you're saying. You can add to any part of this team. So I talked to Brandon Bean about this in October. We were talking about Josh Allen, but we were just having a conversation about receivers.

And he told me that he didn't think you necessarily need a quote-unquote number one receiver. Right. Because there just aren't many of them. And I think a lot of people feel this way. I don't think that's an outwire opinion. A lot of guys within the league think that all you need at that position is diversified skill sets. You just need guys that compliment one another.

So I do think they need another outside receiver, but I don't think they're of the opinion that they need to go out and spend the 15th overall pick on a receiver. So that's the area that I think they need to improve, but I don't think they're going to break the bank to do it if that makes sense. I get that. I get that. I mean, this is, I wonder how close they think they are.

Because it was a really, I'd be interested to talk to Brandon Bean about this later in the year. But I, because he's always very candid about the process and all that stuff. And you and I both talked to him. We both think very highly of them. I think that that. He's a very transparent person, especially in a league where no one is. That Houston game was so weird. And I wonder, I kind of agree with you, do they think that they can make some big, big swings this year and get on a level with the Patriots?

Because, by the way, I mean, this team. came very close to win in the AFC East last year. Tom Brady being a free agent, does that accelerate the timeline? I mean, if Brady leaves, all bets are off, obviously. But I think that they probably think they can get to the mountain top this year in the AFC East, and they'll probably spend a little more to get there. So here's my question to you. Does it matter how close they think they are?

Or do you just have to go all in this year knowing this is your year? I think that actually if you want to go out and sign a huge money guy like Yonik and Gakwe, that's not a one-year decision. Okay. Same, probably the same

with Austin Hooper. Obviously, we're talking about way different price tags here. How do you feel about Austin Hooper? Everyone keeps talking about Austin Hooper. I'm not sure how much I love Austin Hooper. I'm not like, I'm not going to marry him.

I think Austin Hooper's fine. I'm looking at this free agent class. 787 yards last year, 75 catches, playing with Matt Ryan. He's pretty good. I'd rather go with a receiver in the draft and go get somebody like a Yonik and Gokwey or Devi and Clowny if I'm spending money. I mean, it depends.

It depends what the price tag is, but what I'm saying is that I think that when you're talking about a one-year thing, that's when you sign kind of more guys to one-and-two-year deals and try to make a push that way. I think if you're signing these big guys for 60s, 70, 80, and then over $100 million, you're not doing that for 2020. You're doing that for 2020 to 2022. So I think Brady leaving this year would accelerate some of their decision making, but not the huge, huge ones.

So I understand what you're saying. But I also think that we live in a world where things are so year to year within the league. And it depends on how you structure the contracts, right? The Seahawks are never going to give out guarantees beyond year one. So all of their contracts are one-year contracts. So even if you're looking at guys that are going to make a lot of money, let's, for instance, right, maybe this is a bad example because he's 32. But A.J. Green, right?

If you're giving A.J. Green a three-year contract and you're the bills, that's essentially probably going to be a one-year deal, right? I would say most of his guarantees are going to be in years. year one. So I understand what you're saying, but I still feel like there's a way to structure it where the bets you're making are essentially about 2020. Yeah, I understand that. I mean, it's a little different with AJ Green again because he said the advanced age. He's 32. Yeah, it's different. Yeah. I mean, he probably wants to win now having not want a playoff game in his career. I mean, he's also, by the way, just going to get franchised.

That's probably true. But I think this is an interesting conversation. If you're the bills, why wouldn't you try to go get guys like AJ Green and Chris Harris and have it be a one-year proposition because you don't know whether Josh Allen is your guy three years from now? The timetable with the bills, and this is true of the Colts too in a weird way, when you have so much money, figuring out when to pull the trigger on these guys is really important.

And I think that one of the things that's going to help the Colts and the bills are on this boat as well, is that money doesn't necessarily have to go to Freedance. I remember we're talking to a gym a couple of years ago. We were talking about where cap money goes. And they were saying, listen, if you spend, if you draft well enough, that money is accounted for with huge extensions.

And you talk about the Colts or you talk about the bills. I mean, these are guys, these are teams that have really good young players that eventually will, I mean, Travius White's can't sign a contract. That's a lot of money. Honestly, though, man, he's really the only one. they've built this roster.

So in such an interesting way, they don't have a lot of homegrown talent. A lot of the great moves they've made have been with cheap free agents. It's guys like Micah Hyde and Jordan Poir. If you look at their roster, it's actually pretty dissimilar to a lot of the successful teams we've seen around the league recently. Well, I mean, that is partly church.

Davies White's going to break the bank. he's the only one. Yeah, that's the, he's the guy. When Josh Allen's contract comes up, it's going to break the internet. This is my... It's going to be completely insufferable. It's going to be the worst conversation of all time.

I mean, you have Quentin Nelson. The Colts absolutely have... Yeah, that's what I'm talking about. They've drafted extremely well. Right. I mean, Darius Leonard, who obviously had a bad... It was banged up last year. I mean, they have...

Still played really well, though. ...shadement superstars. And that is why I think that when we talk about the differences between these two teams, where the bills might go up and signed a big, big money for a agent with a big swing. The Colts, A, might play a little more conservative because that's their nature. And as you said, Chris Ballard never accelerates his timeline.

But B, they've got some really expensive guys on the roster now who are playing on cheap contracts. Yeah. I mean, none of these things are created equal, right? Like, you could look at two teams that have $80 million in cap space and there's a very good chance they're in very different situations. And I think that the bills and the Colts are two excellent examples of that. All right, buddy, that's all we got.

We're done. We're going to pod from Indy. We're going to pod from Indy. It's good to have you back. I, uh, it's, I missed you. I hope you had fun. But, uh, it's good to have you back in the fold. Lada, I will say this about England.

A surprising amount of Seahawks hats. Really? That was the team I saw represented significantly more than any other team. I don't know if that was just a coincidence or what. Seahawks, Seahawks Twitter is everywhere. You can never escape it. Mm-hmm. All right, guys, thank you so much for listening to Ringer NFL show on the Ringer podcast network.

We will be coming to you from Indianapolis next week. Until then, enjoy your week. Enjoy your weekend. We'll talk to you soon.