The Ringer NFL Show - This Is Patrick Mahomes’s Most Impressive Season | The Island

Episode Date: November 3, 2022

Welcome to ‘The Island’! Each week a guest tries to persuade Nora Princiotti to agree with an argument they feel strongly about. This week’s guest is The Ringer’s Austin Gayle, who argues that 2022-23 is Patrick Mahomes’s best campaign. Will Nora join him on the island, or sail elsewhere? Host: Nora Princiotti Guest: Austin Gayle Associate Producer: Stefan Anderson Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The time has come to get ready for the 2022 World Cup. And what better way to prepare than by revisiting the World Cup's most amazing goals? I'm Brian Phillips. I'm making a podcast about the history of the men's World Cup, told through the stories of 22 iconic goals. The show's called 22 Goals. It's out now on the Ringer Podcast Network, and we're having so much fun. Patrick Holmes is not playing a boring style of offense. It's playing a winning.

It's the best offense in the NFL. It's the best offense in the NFL. It's double what the freaking bills are doing. Go have your Josh Allen. This is the stat that separates the MVP conversation. This is the stat that has people comparing Josh Alien. Josh Alien. I like it. Welcome to the Island on the Bringer NFL show feed.

I'm Nora Finziotti. And I'm here with a first-time guest. It's Austin Gale. Austin, welcome to the island. Oh my gosh. This is the biggest thing that's happened in my career. I'm so excited. I've listened to the island. I've listened to you for such a long time. It's so cool to get on a podcast with you. I will say, I am a huge fan of Nora Princeiety at

2X speed because that's where I listen to the podcast at. So give me an adjustment hearing your voice at normal speed, but I'll see where we go. First of all, flattery will get you everywhere. I'm feeling big things about the end of this island episode for you, but I see what you're doing, Austin. So I hear that you've got a take about Patrick Mahomes, a lesser known quarterback in the NFL that we're going to talk about here on the island today. Lay it on me. Here's the island tape, and I don't know if people are ready for it.

We are not talking enough. The NFL is not talking enough about Patrick Brickman Holmes. Think of the island like a record, spinning on a turntable. Only now, that record is skipping. Like, I think that you see all those tweets, right, where I was like, Patrick Mahomes said this, he was talking about it for 40 days. This year, we have to. talking more about what Patrick Mahomes is doing, man.

Like, this Chief's offense is different and in a great way. I think the stat I'll start with is scoring down in the NFL. I think you've done some research on this. I think you're working on like a handful of things to look at just like why scoring is down. Specifically, scoring is down 300 from 349 points, roughly six. They've only scored 349 points this year, which is done roughly 6% since last year, but that's 349 total points they're down. Completions of 20 plus air yards are down from 403.

in 2022 or 2021, to 332 and 22. That's a 17% drop. People aren't creating explosive plays why everyone keeps talking about the too high stuff. League-wide. People are playing more too high coverages in the NFL every single year. When you look at in 2019, two high coverage is on obvious passing downs, 27% of the time, now 41% of time. Teams are playing more too high to limit these explosive plays. And we look at this year specifically, down 17% in completions of 20 plus air yards. The Chiefs, specifically, lost Tyree Kill, right? who has 600 more receiving cards on those types of throws than he had a player in the NFL.

He might be the best deep threat since Randy Moss. The Chiefs were winning a lot of games and having success offensively because they could create deep, open throws those 21st yard throws. This season, no Tyree Kill and a league that's calling more too high. The same two high coverage is that limited the Chiefs.

Tyree Kill or Patrick Mahomes after week seven last year led the league and interceptions for Zach Wilson with nine. Like he was struggling with these two high shows. This year, he's mastered the mid-range shot, man. This Patchma-Holmes is different, throwing from 5 to 15 yards down the football field. Last year, bottom 5 in efficiency,

EPA per dropback, EPA per attempt, targeting 5 to 15 yards down field. He's now first an EPA per attempt targeting 5 to 15 yards down field and first in EPA per yards per attempt on those same throws. Can't see Chiefs. Patchwell Holmes, Andy Reid, has changed the game in terms of how they attack two high shells and how they attack defenses that are trying to limit the big play. And now, the result, the Chiefs are averaging 1.38 EPA per drive.

That's double the second best team. that's double the second best team and more than double every other team in the NFL. This chief's offense is different and it's better without Tyree Kill. That same thing. Okay. I want to talk about some of what's making this offense go in the short intermediate areas in the field like you mentioned, what's made Mahomes this sort of like mid-range jumper specialist this season.

I want to talk about that in a minute. But let's zero in on what exactly we're talking about here, right? When we say that we, the collective, the royal we, we are not talking about Patrick Mahomes, enough, right? Because, so I looked it up, he's third in MVP odds on Fandle behind Josh Allen and Jalen Hertz. He's second in our guy, Stephen Ruiz's quarterback rankings. He's fourth in PFF grade. He's behind Josh Allen, Gino Smith, and Tua. The offense, they're second in yards per game. They're first in points. He's third in air yards per pass attempt. So he's hanging in there. You know, if you look at it statistically, you look at it

on the PFF grade. You look at it on some of the sort of discourse, betting, who's ranking who wear stuff. He's up there. Do you think that he is, why is he flying under the radar? Like what's making him underrated in this moment relative to a lot of that stuff

that does have the homes? Like is the point that he should be the MVP favorite? Should he be above those guys on the list? Like, talk me through where we're selling him short here. The difference for me, when you compare it with the MVP conversation, right, Jalen Hertz is far exceeding expectations and is on an undefeated football team with the easiest strength of schedule remaining for the year. Like, there's a chance they go undefeat.

There's a chance that the Eagles go undefeated. It's why Nick Siriani is the favorite for coach of the year. They are drastically exceeding expectations. And when you look at specifically at voter betting, right, when you're betting on voters, a lot of that is exceeding expectations, exceeding preseason expectations. That's why Bill Belichick doesn't win coach of the year. It's like Tomlin does it. It's like you have to exceed expectations.

For Jalen Hertz, Nick Siriani, that's a reason why they're both in that conversation. But Josh Allen, I argue Josh Allen, what he's doing at the quarterback position is going against a grain maybe better than what Patrick Holmes is. He's still like just this freakish alien running the football. It's still this freakish alien throwing deep down the field. Like he's doing things that the NFL is trying to limit at a very high level. And I think that's why very rightly so probably should be, you know, the lead, the league lead in MVP. They're also on the best football team.

They also have the favorite to win Super Bowl. So when you look at odds, right, it's like the Buffalo Bills are the favorite to win the see. They're the favorite to be the number one AFCC by like minus 270 in Fandall and then the favorite to win the Super Bowl. Of course there's, you know, the Super Bowl, Josh Allen is going to be the favorite to win MVP. He's plus 125 on Fandall to win the MVP and the

builder plus 125, I think, to go to the Super Bowl. Like that, that is corolling. For Mahomes, why I think we're talking about him less is the mid-range shot isn't sexy. People want the three-pointers, baby. People want Stefan Curry. People want these guys that are making these deep throws and doing the highlight real stuff. The 5 to 15-yard range

and being efficient there, Jimmy G is efficient. in that range. You know, like, there's other quarterbacks that are efficient in that range. That's for home, so when you look at, you compare it to the quarterbacks last year that were efficient in this range. Because I don't think this year to last year is drastically different in how much defenses are playing to our shells. I think they're getting better at it.

And that's why you see the drop off in completion 20 plus yards down field. When you look at last year, the quarterbacks that ranked first in efficiency in these metrics, Aaron Rodgers won the league MVP. Joe Burrell went to the Super Bowl. Matthew Stafford won the Super Bowl. Jimmy G should have went to the Super Bowl. If Chaucer Tart doesn't drop the fact. The quarterbacks that are mastering this mid-range

and whether that's offense, like Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan and doing what they need to do, or just the quarterback's getting better in that area, that is, I think, what is sustainable. That's sustainable offense, and that's evident in just how dominant this offense has been. EPA gets thrown around a lot. It's the new sexy efficiency metric, but to be double. When I think of sexy, I think of expected points at it, Austin. You're right about that.

Same. But when you think about what they're doing offensively, and EPA per drive. Like, they were double the second best team, the Buffalo Bill. Double. Like, to be double in an efficiency metric at this point in the season is banana. And a lot of that, I think you have to tip your cap also to Andy Reid, which may be part of the reason why he's not in that MVP conversation as well, because he's getting propped up by a really, really good offensive play caller.

When you look at, you know, looking at PFF's heat maps that look at routes, tracking routes and tracking where the players are running routes down to down, they're running more routes in this 5 to 15 area, and specifically over the middle of the field, because they know there's opportunity there. Pat from Holmes is seizing it, and now you could argue he's not just the most efficient quarterback in the NFL. He's doing what you need to do to have deep postseason success

better than any other quarterback. Okay. That's really interesting. That's a point I think we're going to come back to a lot, the sustainability of this. Because I've talked about this as a bunch. This is sort of like a bee in my bonnet. But like the way that the chiefs play and construct their roster, if you think about it only on an individual year basis, just what is the ceiling for the 2020, 2020 chiefs had too much coffee this morning apparently, you miss the point.

Because they can't with, if you have an asset like Patrick Mahomes under contract for a decade, you cannot build in that way. And a lot of we talk so much about how it's an all in league, right? the chiefs are not all in on any individual year. They are all in on the Patrick Mahomes era. And if they built that team in a way where they were prioritizing just one specific year, they would be doing the potential to have a dynasty built around this quarterback, a disservice. So I want to get there.

First, I want to dive into why this offense has been so effective in those intermediate areas. Do you think it's just Mahomes playing at a really spectacular level? Is it Andy Reid? Is it how they've gotten the new additions, MBS, Juju, how those guys have changed the offense? What is it that's making this click in this way? So I think the easy answer, right, is to say, oh, Mahomes is Mahomes. And Mahomes just continues to just be a dominant, you know, dominant player and all this stuff.

I think that's the easy way out, in my opinion. We're not giving enough credit to Mahomes and how he's, like, changed how he's played. We go back to the discourse around the Kansas City Chiefs at the early parts of last season. He was like, oh my God, they're putting the cap on this offense. He's not handling it well. He ranks like 17th. Did too high kill Patrick Mahomes? Exactly.

Did too high kill Patrick Mahomes? He raised 17th at PFF grade. He had nine interceptions weeks one through seven. What's going on? And then you go to this year, he loses, I'd say the best receiver in the NFL. Like Typer kill is the best receiver in the NFL. He's the hardest person to game plan against. They lose the best receiver in the NFL.

And they call more routes at the short intermediate areas. I mentioned the heat map stuff. Like, he is, they're calling more routes that go through the five and 15 yard range down field. That's Andy Reed saying we need to adjust. We need to be better at this parts of the field, not just because of how we started last year, but we don't have Tyree Kill. You got Marcus Battle of Scantling. He leads the team in completions or receptions of 10, 20 plus yards with three.

Typer kill has like 18. It's a different game. It's a legitimately different game with what Scantling is able to do. Now, the other part of this, too, and why they're winning at the area of the field is the same reason that San Francisco 49ers and Jim McGroplo are winning at that area of the field. They're gaining yards after the catch. 6.09 average yards after the catch per reception for the Kansas Chiefs. That's third ranked in the NFL this season.

That, in my opinion, is a huge win and a huge testament to what Juju's Miss Euster is able to do. What I say, if a Checo Clyde O'Sullero, are able to do after catch at that the intermediate range. Steve Ruiz, we're an excellent piece on the ringer.com. I'm talking about how skilled players are so important in today's league because the quarterbacks are not able to take the cap off and like that. the quarterbacks at the middle part of the NFL are not entering the steel. Joe Burrow isn't playing as well as last year. You're seeing, you're seeing Gio Smith exceed the expectations because of the supporting cast and all that kind of stuff.

With Mahomes, he is with a worst supporting cast elevating it to a degree that only, I think Josh Allen has came from love in the NFL right now. I think that deserves more credit as well. Stematically why it's happening, I still think a lot of it is calling routes. I still think a lot of it is having the best yak tied end in the NFL and Travis Kelsey. And then also bidding the offense to the personnel, which I think we talk about every single on the ringer NFL show, on every podcast is about which coaches are fitting

their offense to their personnel. Andy Reed has done an excellent job of that with time this off season to actually create an offense that's sustainable in a too high heavy league without Tyree Kill. I think you have to tip your credit, tip your hat to what Mahomes has done within this offense and how he's changed how he plays the position and also Andy Reid how he's changed

the office. I mean, do you think that there have been changes in how he plays the position that extend as far as mechanics, how he's like are you seeing a different type of of touch on the ball that is conducive to making those short intermediate area throws? Like, what has he changed to enable this? I think there's more throw variability, which I think is something that's underrated. When you're talking about quarterback evaluation, it's like, we're putting 25 cents in the jargon jar for that one.

But keep talking. I want to hear about this. I think that I think it's an underrated like aspect of like evaluating quarterback petition. It's like how often are you making different types of throws? Like putting touch on throws and different speeds on throws because you, You can watch a lot of quarterbacks take like one speed type of throwers that have to fire it, you know, the tight windows and are throwing with one speed.

Patrick Mahomes this year and to mass in that big-range shot, you have to be able to throw with touching different areas. You have to be able to, yes, light it up and throw that fastball. You also have to throw the curve and throw these different things that allow for, you know, getting the ball over linebackers, but not so high over linebackers and speed. Like I think that what Mahomes has done is no longer it has to just throw the fastball, just throw the things down the football field. He can be multiple or variable with how he throws the football.

I also think that I know this island take is about we're not talking enough about Patrick Mahomes and he deserves more credit for what he's doing. There is a lot of reason to say like this island takes also adjacent to we're not, you know, giving enough credit to what Andy Reid and the supporting cast is done. Right. Like Andy Reid, you know, bringing Isaiah Pacheco, you're bringing in Junji's mischews, so they're bringing Marcus out of Scantling and they don't run what they've been previously running. They run a lot more underneath stuff.

They run a lot more stuff that's catered to the strengths of this offense. They don't have a tiring kill. And I still I still think that Andy Reed deserves a lot of this credit, not as much as what Mahomes has done to adjust how he plays position, but still a lot of the credit as well. So I'm hoping that you will play PR chief here for a second. If the goal is to get Patrick Mahomes' chief's offense segments up into the A-block's of talk shows

and to just build a whole bunch of buzz around how they've molded this offense, how they've changed how they play, to be best-examined. equipped to attack the style of defenses that they're going to face more and more week in and week out in today's NFL. How are you doing that? Like run the Patrick Mahomes PR campaign so that we properly respect how difficult it is to see a tiger change their stripes in this way. All right. I'm putting on my PR hat here. I'm putting on my PR hat. The Kansas City Chiefs, last year and this year, see a lot of too high plays. How many? The second most in the NFL.

They see two high looks because Patrick, homes can destroy you. He can destroy you if you don't. He can destroy you if you do not put a cap on the office. Yeah, a cap on the office. Giving him credit for like changing, you know, being more multiple thrower and talking more of the underneath stuff, like is, is a big part of the PR campaign. But a lot of it's also willingness, right? Again, comparing the discourse the last year to this year, it's like, you know, some, I think Benjamin Solac and others have said, like, it's just less fun. It's less fun to target the underneath stuff and take the easy throws and do things underneath and not be like this big, big, big, arm quarterback that just makes the highlight throws downfield.

Taking that willingness to do that in this offense where we've seen, when you compare to last year, the quarterbacks that are having success in this area are having success deep in the postseason and their sustainability to that, that is a massive win for this Chief's offense. And I think the other part of this, too, is that it's elevating every part of the offense. It's not that Patchma Holmes has gone from 29 in yards per attempt on five to 15-yard throws to first in yards per attempt on five to 15-yard throws. It's not just that. It's that the offense from weeks one to seven last year, so you're not including the buy of the season,

average 0.91 EPA for offensive drive for this year 1.38, which is not just the best in the NFL, or double the second best team in the Buffalo bill. The offense is arm and a lay more efficient than every other team that's dealing with a lot of these same concerns, especially if you have a league quarterback. Josh Allen is seeing a lot of too high plays as well.

He is facing that because the bills don't run the football a ton and new O Josh Allen, if you don't put a cap on him, he's going to be able to unleash it. The offense might be more efficient than the bills statistically. They did lose that game in part because, the chiefs really struggled to run the ball. Do you think that, because good rushing attacks, generally speaking, are how we're seeing a lot of offenses,

the offenses that are successfully combating the too high trend. A lot of them are doing it through having a viable run game and focusing on that in ways that just have not been advantageous in past years that have become a little bit more strategically sound because of what we're seeing defenses doing. the Chiefs are still an offense that ranks 23rd in rush yards per game, they're 18th and yards per rush.

Do they need to fix that in order to have the most potent offense to attack these defensive trends? Or do you think that Mahomes is completely making up for that in terms of how he's playing on the field? I think fixing that makes it easier, right? But go back to last year,

the Chiefs ranked 6th in EPA per rush and the offense wasn't as good as this. This year, they rank middle of the pack in EPA for rush, 18th in EPA. day per rush. They're not having a lot of success running the football. And I think a lot of people have talked about adding Isaiah Pacheco, he looks great, he's, you know, he's flashy. They started him over Clyde Edwards-Edwin's because they're not getting enough out of the run. And they're trying to find new things to get more out of the run game. What they are getting the most out of is this

under the pass and getting yards after the catch. Like I said, third in the league and yards after the catch per reception, they're creating with this window, five to 15 yards down field, not necessarily an extension of the run game because more of that is like screens and running RPO's and those types of things. But like, like, still a hyper-efficient way that is risk-avoidant, right? Risk-avoidant, the more you target down field, the more inaccurate passes, the more turnover is all those things. It's a risk-avoidant style of offense that isn't necessarily running a football,

which they're not having a lot of success doing, but Mahomes just turn the corner. Going back to my PR campaign, Mahomes went from 29th inefficiency in these throws to first. First, and that's asking him to do things he wasn't doing before. It's asking him to make the most out of a receiving court, that probably the worst receiving court he's had since entering the league. That, in my opinion, where everyone wants to fawn over Josh Allen,

who I think at points of this season has been the best quarterback in the NFL, and he's done some heroic alien things. Mahomes, man, when you look at this Kansas City Chiefs team and when you look at this looming AFC championship between the Buffalo Bills, there is sustainability to this offense that I'm not saying the bills don't have, but I think it could be enough to topple a Buffalo Bills team if they are playing in Buffalo late in January early 5th. If you had an MVP vote and you had to cast it right now,

who's it going to? Gosh, sorry, this might kill my island. But I'd probably give him to Josh Allen. I'd probably get to Josh Allen because I think what he's doing, isolated of everything, isolated of two high defenses, isolated of who the coach is, isolated of all that. Like, you lost brain day ball this off season. You bring in Ken Dors and he's still like, he looks better.

It's like he looks different. And I think Josh Allen... It's not like Dayball's not crushing it. So it's not that like, oh, maybe Brian Dable wasn't all he was cracked up. to be. It's just that it still doesn't matter. Exactly. I think that you give it to Josh Allen, who has a better record, who I think is minus 270 to secure the number one C in the AFC in the AFC. If I had to place a bet, it'd be on Josh Allen. And honestly, if I had cast a vote, it might be Josh Allen. But Patrick Mahomes is right there. And I think

people are talking about Tua, people are talking about Jail and Hertz. There is no one else in the conversation. Like, there's no one else in the elite quarterback conversation outside of Josh Allen and Patrick Holmes. Don't put anyone else there. It's just those two. And Mahomes, to do what he's doing with the worst supporting cast, opinion. I think the Buffalo bills have the better supporting gas in Gabriel Davis and Stefan Diggs. I still think it's just so impressive that it needs to be talked about more. But if you include the quarterback in the run game, the bills can, the bills have their own issues with the running game, but they, if you include what Josh Allen adds, they have a more potent

running game than the chiefs do. So they have a little bit more, you know, quote unquote, balance. They have a little bit more to offer in terms of what they can do there than Kansas City can. I would be so fascinated to know what those conversations are like within the chief's organization, what it's like in a meeting room, even in off-season planning meetings, talking to a quarterback like Patrick Mahomes and basically saying, whether it comes from coaching front office or from Mahomes himself, like what is the conversation where you essentially ask him to do less?

And it's not less. That's a bad way of putting it in a bad way of thinking about it. but if you ask him to play a more boring style of offense, right? Like part of why maybe we're not talking about this enough. Yes. Let's finish it. It's not as fun to watch. Not nearly.

Not nearly. Here's the PR putting the hat back on. Patrick Holmes is not playing a boring style of offense. It's playing a winning. It's the best offense in the NFL. It's the best offense in the NFL. It's double what the freaking bills are doing. Go have your Josh out.

Who? This is the stat that separates the MVP conversation. This is the stat that has people comparing Josh Alien, Josh Allen to a different character. Josh Allen, I like it. Josh Allen, there's only two quarterbacks in the NFL. They have a positive EPA per dropback average, wind pressure. It's Josh Allen and two are talking about lower.

Josh Allen, 0.21 EPA per dropback wind pressure. That's stupid. It's stupid. It shouldn't happen. It should never happen again. It's alien-like. Patchma Holmes, win kept clean. When the offense is protecting up front,

has the best EPA for dropback. When kept clean, he's maximizing what the offense is giving him. Josh Allen doesn't even rank inside the top four of that. It's fifth in EPA for dropback when kept clean. He is playing a winning style of offense. It's more sustainable to have success when it kept clean as a passer than it is under pressure. Now, what Josh Allen is doing under pressure is stupid and insane and why he's the MVP favorite. But what Pashman Holmes is doing in the system of the offense is the best in the league.

My takeaway from this, we'll get to our moment of truth and I'm going to have to make a call here at some point. My takeaway from this so far is like, the rest of the NFL should be scared. should be a little worried based on what the chiefs have done so far this year, right? Because they have these receivers who are, they're past catching core overall. And I'm including Kelsey and that certainly is good. Like I'm not here for any of this, oh, who's he throwing to stuff? Because overall, that is a good group. Yes.

But it still doesn't have Tyree Kilt, right? Like you cannot convince me that there's any, sort of on its own isolated positive to removing a player who probably strikes more fear in the hearts of defensive coordinators when they have to plan for him than any other skill position guy in football. Right? But moving on from him helps you with your salary cap.

It helps you have a big contract from Holmes, helps you plan for what you're going to need to do to keep your roster and keep a solid defense year in and year out, right? And then through eight weeks, we have proof of concept here that the quarterback's just fine with it. And he can have, okay, maybe sometimes a slightly less exciting offense, but just as an efficient offense, if not more, playing in a way that doesn't require having that guy. which is good news, not because, to me, it's not because, oh, defenses play too high, so Tyree Kill wouldn't be valuable to the Chiefs.

The reason that's good news for them is just Tyree Kill is expensive. You can't always have a Tyree Kill on your roster. You can't make a 10-year plan for your team and go, we are always, always, always going to be able to have that guy and Kelsey and a decent defense that's going to be, you know, middle of the pack or above and have enough money to pay everybody, right? And then you talk about how his play has been so good when he's not pressured and how that's more sustainable year in and year out and something that we can say, okay, Mahomes was so good in this area in 2022, that probably tells us he's more likely to keep it going in 2023, 2024, whatever.

That's scary, right? Because that means the chiefs are just not going anywhere. And I'm not saying that that's exactly shocking. But that is a team that's effectively building to be in six AFC championship games, right? In the next decade. And if you do that, you're going to win a couple Super Bowls. Because you might lose some of those AFC championship games. You might win them and then go and lose a Super Bowl, whatever.

But, like, that is how. The Patriots built a dynasty by doing that. And football is a game with a lot of variables. When you get into an individual game situation, there's just a lot of randomness. But if you get there, if you get there that many times, and you don't have to,

you have the luxury of having a team in a roster that's built to do that. So if you get the one year where you get slammed with injuries, okay, maybe you don't make it that year. But you're still okay, you're still structurally sound in your roster to do it the next year, and you don't have to deal with something like, okay, what the Rams are dealing with right now, which is you stack enough injuries in one area and all of a sudden this team that is super expensive and costs so much in terms of salary cap dollars, draft capital. Well, sorry, this year's probably not the year.

Like, if you poured it all into, let's call it a three-year window, third of that goes out the drain because you got hit with an injury stack at one position. The Chiefs don't have to think like that and they don't have to deal with that. And that is their biggest advantage when we think about the long term

sort of what's going to happen in the league. And I think that's more than anything else, that's what this says to me. I think you hit the nail on the head. And I think the more that, you know, I talk this out beyond just an island take to what are the longevity components of it.

It's the willingness to adjust how you're playing the quarterback position or how you're approaching the offense. And Andy Reed's willingness, that's my home, and Andy Reed's willingness to adjust the offense, right? I think look at last year. With Matthew Stafford in the Los Angeles Rams, one of more efficient offenses in the NFL,

Cooper Cup, OBJ, it was, you know, Andrew Whitworth, a pass protection where they had a lot of success. This year, they've completely fallen off the cliff. The offensive line is worse. the receiving corps is arguably worse with Otto Becham Jr. And they've fallen off. Patchman Holmes has been under pressure more than Matthew Stafford this year.

And I would argue that the Rams with Cooper Cup and Al Robinson have a better receiving core than Patrick Mahomes says this year. The difference is, Sean McVeigh and Matthew Stafford have not find ways to adjust with ailments and personnel, whereas the Kansas City Chiefs said, no, we're losing Tyrake Hill and the defense has continued to put two high shells against us. we're going to change. Mahomes is going to change,

and Reed's going to change. Yeah, we're going to add players like Marcus Valis-Cantling and Juja Smith-Schuster trying to mitigate some of that, but we're not going to be able to have the same supporting cast that we had before. And I think every single week I get on a podcast or I go to write the power-ranking's article on the ringer, and I continue to find myself talking about this, like, willingness to change in coaches and this willingness to change

and even some players and how they approach the game is the biggest edge in the NFL. The biggest edge in the NFL is being able to say, I'm going to two things differently than what I've done before than what supporting castes have had me allowed me to do before, right? We were talking a little bit before we started recording about Michael Daniel. And he comes from the Shanahan offense, and he's going to run like a copycat of that. It's different. It's a lot different.

What he's doing, way more RPO's and running things that are fit to a ton of my lowest skill set and fit to the skill sets of a historic receiving duo in jail and wild tire of kill. It's different. It's a change that he wasn't running in San Francisco. And I do think that with Andy Reid, who gets a lot of appropriate, rightful, you know, criticism for how he handles late, late game management and timeouts and things like that, that's still not a strong suit.

What he's been doing this year in terms of changing how he calls offense to fit the skill set of this team and what Mahomes has done to fit that, I think is truly impressive. Any final thoughts before I issue my verdict here? I think I'm ready.

The only final thought I have is none of this is to say that Josh Allen isn't playing well. Like Josh Allen, like I said, I'd probably cast my vote for MVP. I don't want this to be like, Patrick Mahomes. No, I don't think it is.

The thing is for me is that, as we start to draw our eyes toward a Jalen Hertz and a Tutsunga by Loa and a Gino Smith. Fuck. Like you start to look at these other quarterbacks that having more success. It's like, don't forget,

don't you forget it. That Patrick for Holmes is a different dude, man. Don't you forget for a second that is other teams are having success and you see quarterbacks being propped up by really good offensive systems and really good supporting gas. At Patrick Holmes is independent of that.

And it's one of one in this league as someone who can just do really different things. Okay. So here's the deal, awesome. This is the moment in the show when I have to be on the island, off the island. Sometimes I'm on a neighboring island.

What I'm feeling compelled to do in this moment is I'm going to flip this. We're going to flip chairs for a moment. I'm struggling if I'm on, I need a clearer understanding of exactly, it's hard for me to tell exactly how much we are or aren't like talking about Patrick Mahomes or not.

But what I want to flip to you, is I'm going to tell you what island I'm on, and you tell me what you think of it. Because I don't know if I'm on the Patrick Mahomes underrated, not talked enough about Island. But after this conversation, what I'm feeling is that I'm on

this is Patrick Mahomes' most impressive season. Island. Patrick Mahomes won MVP in 2018. He threw for 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns. All right? So we got a pretty high bar here. That's why I think this is an island-worthy take. But as we ran through this, the challenge of taking a guy like that and him, you know, adjusting his game, adjusting his philosophy when he's in the moment in the heat of competition and really understanding and having the discipline to adjust how he plays to fit the personnel, to fit what defenses are giving. and have that all add up to this offense that is more efficient

than they have been in a time when defense is beating offense in the NFL right now, like we never thought that that would happen, never thought that that would happen again. And Mahomes has been able, with very easily, arguably, a talent downgrade around him, has been able to change what he does in a way that makes them more efficient,

that is genuinely, I think, the most impressive thing that I've seen him do. Because I just think it's impossible to overstate how hard that is. To be a guy who's succeeded as an athlete at every single level, at everything that he's ever done at multiple sports, to be someone where it's just like you have that innate belief that if the game is on the line, you're going to go win it. And you have that, you know, it's almost like a god complex. it is so hard for people like that to change and to say what I've succeeded doing might not work anymore.

So I'm going to alter how I play. Like that is one of the hardest, hardest, hardest, hardest, hardest, hardest things to do in all of sports. And you are absolutely right to point out that we shouldn't take for granted or underrate or let fly under the radar, that that's what Patrick Mooms has done this season. I'm not sure, you know, it's hard to do something more impressive than throw for 50 touchdowns, but I think there's a strong argument that this is it. I'm with you on that island, and here's why.

He threw for 50 touchdowns of 5,000 yards in 2018 before the league had even seen him out. He broke the league. He literally broke the league. So maybe that is, he broke the league into like, holy shit, if that's a guy that can do that, we need to put a cap on these types of offenses. And since then, since then, league, Every year, the league has added more two high shells to limit these types of seasons from Patcham Holmes.

In that season, across the full season, we still got games to go. In that season, 0.33 EPA for dropback, through 5,000 yards, 50 touchdown. This year, through week seven, he's on pace for 5,200, and he's 0.35 EPA for dropback. A more efficient player when you look at what he's doing within this Kansas City offense. Limited sample size to sign across a full 16 game season. He's three for 50 fucking touchdowns. That's insane. However, I think there's a lot of reason when you factor in.

He comes in, essentially he's rookie season in 2018 and breaks the league. The league literally snaps in half. Then progressively, the league has adjusted to literally stop players like him. And guess what? He turned around is like, I can be something else. I can be something better. I can elevate my game and elevate a game. That's through for 50 touchdowns in the league.

I can change it and I can be better. That, I agree. Like, that's an island that no one's on right now. Josh Allen, yes, has like in similar ways broke the league with like, I think his rushing abilities underrated. I think there's a lot about his game. That hasn't proved so much since that 2018 season for him, that I think has changed how the league approaches thing.

However, well, Patrick Mahomes should be the best quarterback in the NFL one way, and now the best quarterback in the NFL another way. Like you said, it's a hard thing to do. It's a hard thing to do. It's a hard thing to do and something that you just have to sit back and appreciate. All right. So you're on this so far is Patrick Mahomes's most impressed to season Island with me?

Yes. Awesome. see you there. We'll get some nice beach umbrellas going. We'll make it a cool spot. This has been the Island on the Ringer NFL show feed. Thank you so much for listening. Thanks again to Austin. No shield with the scramble this week. So the preview show will be up next. That's on Friday. Thank you to Stefan Anderson for production on this episode and to Connor Nevins and Varjuna Rangipal for additional production supervision.