The Ringer NFL Show - Three Draft Predictions and Draft Over-Unders | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: April 24, 2023

The 2023 NFL draft week is finally here! Sheil and Ben have finally ground out the tape of every player possible and have each come up with three big draft predictions about what they think will happen this year. Which teams will be trading up or down to secure more players or more picks? Plus, draft over-unders are always fun. Find out which players gamblers should keep an eye on to place their wagers with. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak Producer: Cliff Augustin Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Did your favorite NFL team win the Super Bowl? No? Then the NFL draft is your Super Bowl. I'm Danny Haifitz, and for now until the draft, we are turning our fantasy football show feed into the Ringer NFL draft show. Every Tuesday and Thursday, we talk about the top players and most important storylines for the NFL draft. So join us on the Ringer NFL draft show. Welcome to Extra Point taken on the Ringer NFL feed.

It is draft week. I'm Shil Kapadia. Joined by Ben Solak. We've got takes, maybe the easiest format we've had all season. And Benny Souls is just, we each make three draft predictions. We end with some draft over-unders, and we get ready for Thursday night and the first round. How are you feeling right? Now, is the tape grinding still going on?

Is the tape grinding finished? And you're like, let's just, you know, let's do some yard work until Thursday. What's going on in Ben Sol X life this week? The tape grinding is absolutely finished. I've watched, it's great. I don't have to put out a big board like Danny Kelly does here. Danny Kelly's top 100 NFL draft at the ringer.com. Check it out.

Yes. Yeah. So I don't have a quota of players to watch. So I just kind of watch players until I go, oh, this is not, I don't like any of these players anymore. And then I stop, which is a great feeling.

And then you talk to people and then they say, oh, you should watch this. You know, you should watch Yaya Diabi. And so you watch Yaya Diabi. I mean, and then I do the big quarterback charting, which was just done this past week, NFL Draft for the ringer.com.

And after that, then I'm chilling. And so does that mean I'm going to have to watch, you know, Western Kentucky film for the sixth round defensive tackle that the Eagles draft on the flight back home, yes, but I prefer that to watching all of the potential six-round defensive tackles the Eagles could take. You can pick and choose after the draft, right, to get your takes out there. That's nice.

All right, well, let's get to it. I am curious to hear what you've got. You see what you think about what I've got, but you lead us off. What is your first draft prediction? I was about to say, are you going to actually set the table? You didn't say what we're doing. You said to be... You weren't listening.

You weren't listening. I started the show by saying the format is simple. We're each getting three... You'll probably check a Twitter. I didn't look at outside your window. I was pulling up the three predictions. I was in my doc open. All right.

So I did explain it. The listeners know. Listeners, I apologize. Ben, go ahead. Oh, hush, hush, hush, hush. My first draft prediction. The Texas are taking Will Levis at two. This is how.

100%. It's going to be what they do. Now, as let's rewind the clocks like a month, month and a half, it's the beginning of free agency, the Chicago Bears on the first overall pick. The Texans are there at two. They're calling the Bears trying to see if they can trade up, right? Other teams are calling the Bears. We've now learned for reports. We know the Colts were. We know that the Raiders were per recent reports. And obviously, we know the Panthers did, right? A lot of people are interfacing with the Bears trying to get the first overall pick. And the Bears take that offer from the Panthers. Panthers get the pick. And everybody goes, all right, this is for C.J. Stroud. There's a couple names they like. They're going to look at the

rest of the class, but C.J. Stroud's the guy in the room right now that they're enthusiastic about. That moment set an unrealistic expectation for how the league was going to view C.J. Stroud. You and I watch C.J. Shroud. That's a doggone accurate quarterback with a ton of production, right? That is an NFL passer right there. I love me some C.J. Stroud. But the league goes, ah, pocket passer, Ohio State quarterback. And you know Ohio State. state quarterbacks never work. And outwardly, front-facingly, scouts love to say, oh, don't scout the helmet. Don't scout the team. You got to scout the player, each of the individual, whatever. But internally, I'm telling you, they don't want to draft Ohio State

quarterbacks. That's, that, like, all right, this system doesn't translate and they need too much time, yada, yada, whatever. So that moment where the Panthers got that pick and there was that reporting on C.J. Shroud set an unrealistic expectation in the public, in my opinion, for where the league viewed C.J. Shroud. And accordingly, as the Panthers went through their process and fell in love with Bryce Young, the competitor, fell in there with Bryce Young, individual fell in the Bryce Young, the underdog, the outlier, there was this natural, immediate moment of, okay, well, then Stroud will just go to the Texans. He just bumps down a spot. From all the reporting and sourcing that I can find largely, right, there's some contradictory

reports, but largely over the course of the cycle, the Texans are not a C.J. Stroud team. I do not think they are interested in taking C.J. Stroud, if you look at Fandul's sports betting markets right now, Stroud is the fourth most likely pick at number two overall, plus 550. Obviously, the pick could still get traded, so there's a little bit of, of, of, of, of, of questions. mark there, but above them are the two edge rushers, Will Anderson and Tyrie Wilson, and then Will Levis, who I'm extremely confident is the second best quarterback ranked on the Texans board behind Bryce Young at the top spot. Is he high enough to the Texas will stay in and take him? Yes, in terms of how their board is stacked, quarterback rankings. I'm very confident Levis is the second player

behind Bryce Young. And think about Levis is, he just seems like an NFL quarterback. Enidville teams, teams don't want to draft guys who are good quarterbacks. They want to draft guys who seem like good quarterbacks. Remember Jared Stedham came out out of Auburn? And every report was like, you should see this guy sling the pill in practice. Holy smokes, you should see the way this guy prepares. Like, have you seen him play? Do you see what it looks like on the field?

Right, Will Levis. You should see it like this guy. Like there was a report this week. He had his day planned to the minute at Kentucky. First one in last one. I should see the way he prepared, see the way he cared about the team. Judge, watch him trying to throw? like this is like I like a Will Levis but to me like the product on the field is less than C.J.

Stroud but he seems like an NFL quarterback. And the Texans, I'm confident have him ranked second quarterback behind Bryce Young. And so if they stay and make the pick at two, which I think they will, I think a lot of this, we might take an edge rusher as posturing. I think that they're trying to elicit trade up offers because if they're interested in taking an edge, then they're always going to be interested in trading down. And I think that they're going to end up having to stay at the pick. And when they do, I think they're taking Will Levis at two.

They might say like, oh, we'll take Will Levis at two. But man, once ownership gets involved, once ownership here is, hey, we have the second overall pick, we could have had the first overall pick and we lost it because he beat the Bears in Week 16. Once they hear that, oh, we're passing on quarterback, ownership is going to say, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, I'm not doing another year, Davis, Mills, go get me in my franchise starter. I think Will Lewis is the picket, too. Well, what is interesting about the Texans is that we don't know how the power structure is set up, who's making the decision, any of those things.

As I mentioned last week when I was on with Nora, D'Miko Ryans has juice. I mean, D'Miko Ryans had options about where he wanted to be a head coach this offseason. And so you can jump to some conclusions there that if he chose the Texans that presumably he had some assurances that, hey, you're going to have some say, you're going to have, we're going to give in to X, Y, and Z here. We have a big draft decision coming up. You will have a say in it, all those things. Nick Casario, we don't know.

I mean, there's all the rumors, all the reporting out there about whether he's even going to be the GM after the draft. So that's what makes it complicated with the Texans. I guess I just have to get into my first one, and we'll just talk about the Texans for a little bit. Because I've got the Texans also. My first prediction, the Texans do pass on QB at 2. Ah! The Texans do pass on QB at 12. The Texans trade the 33rd overall pick in the second round.

to the San Francisco 49ers for quarterback Trey Land. So I think we're both on the same page that the Texans cannot come out of the draft and say we're good with Davis Mills. One way or another, there has to be a new quarterback on the Texans roster. The question is how they get to that quarterback, who that quarterback's going to be. So you laid out the scenario there. You know, maybe they loved Bryce Young. They thought they were getting Bryce Young.

Now it looks like Bryce Young is going one to the Panthers. they have to make a decision. I agree with the other point. I would sit there and just say, cool, C.J. Stroud looks pretty good to me. I don't know if he'll work out or not, but hey, he is a very accurate passer. I understand, you know, some of the questions about

he'll never have a wide receiver group in the NFL as good as he did at Ohio State. At the same time, you look at some of the throws he made and those translate to the NFL there. So D'Amico Ryan's comes from San Francisco. He saw Trey Lance day in and day out from the day Tray Lance got there in San Francisco. If he likes the intangibles, if he likes the work ethic, if he likes how Trey Lance relates to teammates, all those things you look for in a quarterback, he could be an

attractive option for the Texans. By the way, you're still getting two years of a rookie contract with Trey Lance and then the fifth year option. That is a very attractive contract structure if he is a quarterback who you think can give you even mediocre to slightly above average quarterback play. So D'Amico Ryan has inside knowledge is the point with Trey Lance. Now, the 49ers, why would they make this deal? Well, we know there's already been some smoke that they're quote unquote taking calls, which I don't know who calls who, text who, who, who DMs who, I don't know, it could be anything. You just go into someone's comment section on social media. I don't know how these trades happen, but there at least has been some conversations about trading

Trey Lance. Now, if you're the 49ers, you have to be motivated. to do this because it really does not hurt to keep Tray Lance on the roster. Like I said, he's on a rookie contract. You have uncertainty at quarterback. Why would you make this deal? Well, you don't pick until number 99 in this draft. You are a Super Bowl contender. Do you want to get in the mix here early on? That, I mean, that is a pretty high pick there if you are the 49ers. Number 33 overall. You're right there at the top of the second round. You can add a player. And if you've kind of soured on Tray Lance and said, hey, you know, we got Brock Purdy, we got Sam Darnold, we can maybe trade for Mack Jones at some point. We can call Tom Brady at some point.

Kirk Cousins as a last resort, if it's week seven, and we don't have a quarterback and we're like, we got to do something. Well, I mean, there are other options they can have there. And so I think that that compensation, 33rd overall, is enough for the 49ers to say, you know what, if we don't do it this year, and if Lance doesn't play this year, and you he's our second or third quarterback. And now next off season we try to trade him. Now he only has one year left on his rookie contract. He hasn't played for us.

We're not going to get the same compensation. Kyle Shane Ann, who knows how much longer he's going to have the emotional bandwidth to be an NFL head coach. He wants to win a Super Bowl right now. So I think the Texans emerge from the first round with Trey Lance, with let's say, Will Anderson at two, and then whatever player they want to pick at the number 12 spot. and they said we didn't draft a quarterback, but we got a quarterback we like. He's on a rookie contract. We're in a good spot. I recently said on the take bird to the bring NFL draft show,

which is a show where you're not accountable for any of your takes. I just want the Texans to just collect 2021 quarterback class castoffs, just trade for Tray Lance, trade from Mack Jones, right, let the Patriots move up, go get Mac, sign Zach Wilson when the Jets cut them. Just everybody from the 2021 class, we've got a decent chance. Bears are done with Fields next year. Bring him to the building. Somebody's going to hit. Young quarterback theory. All right. We're going to be good. I definitely think that Lance is a Texans trapdoor option that like, you don't want to say like in case things don't go the way. They don't get a quarterback. They're there too. They control their own destiny. But if they just like if they

throw out the course of the draft decide that, all right, like, you know, we don't, you know, the drafts fall into us this way and we don't need this second round pick. You know what I'm saying? We've made this election at two and 12. We feel great about us. this. We feel like the trade-up price is super cheap because not a lot of teams are trading up this year so we can move around a little bit. Let's go get Tray Lance. I think it's the sort of thing where, yeah, like, I would imagine the Texans and the Niners have agreed on some sort of deal structure and then, you know, they'll activate as the draft goes on, you know, like in the and that makes sense for both sides. There's a lot of trade-up bowl quarterbacks this year of the

draft, which is cool. Lamar Rogers, obviously the big names, but like I brought up Mac. Like, I think there's a non-zero percent chance Mac gets traded. Tray Lance is one of is one as well. Lance is probably the most likely of the four to get moved. Like what percent chance would you put it that Lance is traded by the end of round, by the end of day three? I don't know. I saw Peter King's column. He put it at like 7.86%. Like he was like, you know, he could happen. He put it in the analytics calculator. He was like, all right, this is what the analytics is doing for us, man. It's telling us how likely this trail Lance gets traded. I'm kind of with you. I feel like there are enough teams, uh, the Titans, the Vikings, the Texans,

maybe the Colts. I mean, I feel like there's enough teams out there who would say, you know what, if we don't get our quarterback here, let's go ahead and take a flyer on Trey Lance. And I just laid out this scenario for the 49ers. I mean, you can say, no, let's just chill and let's just wait. But if you feel like he's not your guy in the long run, this is kind of your best chance to get some compensation for him. So I don't know what percentage. I think it's probably, I would put it under 50, but I still kind of think it's going to happen. I don't know, 38% I would say. Where are you?

Are you higher than that? Yeah, 38, 3.3.8. I think it's like, I think it's like 27. That's what I'm putting in that. Okay. Yeah, all right. Three 11th. Yeah, it's not going to surprise us if it happens.

It's not a lock to happen. It could happen later. It could happen this summer, whatever, once they get more clarity on Brock Purdy. But it's certainly something to watch here during draft weekend. All right. Let's take a break. here, we will come back and we will get Ben's number two prediction. All right, we're back on extra point taking,

shield Capadio with Ben Solac. We're doing draft predictions. Ben, what do you have as your number two draft prediction? There is a zero percent chance. Okay, this is like a 5% chance. The Lions are leaving the first round with the quarterback, guaranteed. Oh no! They have the same one.

Yes. We're so good at this or maybe bad because you want to have conflicting stuff and fill the hours. I have it written right here. The lions are coming out of the first round with the quarterback. All right. Go ahead. Make the case. And I will back you up on it why the lions are coming out of the first round with the quarterback.

Wait, so what was the zero percent chance was that they don't come out of the first round with the quarterback? I was a zero percent chance the lions leave the first round without a quarterback. That's what I've written down. I said out loud there's a zero percent. chance and I saw your face light up like a Christmas tree. I can't wait. Ben said zero percent chance. Can't wait to get him on a technicality.

I'll say, I need to amend this. I need to give myself a wiggle room. Shield's going to back me into a corner. All right. Todd McShay, ESPN, I mentioned today in his draft rumors piece that the lines are a sneaky C.J. Stroud team that the lines are still sneaky quarterback team. You've seen a ton of smoke about the lines calling about trade up prices. I don't think trade-up calls guarantees quarterback.

Like there's been talking about trade-up for Will Anderson, so I think that that's also on the table. But the lions are looking at moving around, right? And like as guys fall, like, okay, if this guy gets to three, we do this. If this guy gets to five, we do that, yada, yada, whatever. But that's just looking off at six, where, like, if they just stay at six, they're probably going to have a quarterback that they can go get.

They also have to pick at 18, right? And 18 is where this class gets weird. I'm really good at mocking this class up to, like, 14, 50. where I'm like, all right, these are the players are going to go this early and these teams make sense for them. And then you start to get to the middle teens and you're like, what is this tier of players? Who is going at this range?

This is why, to me, that's like, you know, I think teams are saying they have like 13, 14 first round grades, right? So it starts to fall off after that. Man, Tennessee quarterback, Kenyon Hooker is going first round. I don't abide by it. I don't endorse it, but Tennessee quarterback, Kenan Hooker in my estimation is going first round. I think so, too.

Consistent steam in that regard. seen consistent rumors in that regard. And this is just a big injured son of a gun. And if I know my GMs, Brad Holmes take an injured player, very excited to, Jameson Williams traded up for him. Levi and Wuzerike, Washington defensive tackle, was injured. Brad Holmes drafted him. Kentucky Edge, Josh Paskell, was injured.

Brad Holmes drafted him. Those were round one and round two picks. There ain't no round six flyer on a guy with an ACL. Brad Holmes does not give a hoot if you do not have working ligaments at this time. Then 10 hookers got the torn ACL. I think there are good candidates move up and move down. They're a good candidate to gain the system. Good candidate to see who falls.

Stroud can make sense for them because Stroud is just, I think, souped up golf, and they obviously know how to make golf work. Richardson can make sense for them because he's big, long, strong athlete, high-tier competitor, right? He's the sort of gritty, physically gifted guy they tend to like there. And then Hooker makes sense for them. High grit, great size, right? And again, pocket passer, he can work in the same way that golf has in that system.

And then I said Stroud, I said, Richardson. Yeah. That's all the quarterbacks. I think all of them makes sense. They have too many picks. They have too much capital. And I think for all of their conversations about golf, for everything they've said,

I think Brad Holmes knows. He said it since he's gotten there. He knows that you have one chance to get a quarterback right and you've got to do it when you can. It does not get better than a class with five first round quarterbacks when you have two picks in the top 20. You are never, ever, ever, ever going to get a better shot than this.

Your team is too good. I think Holmes knows that. I think he knows he has to leave the first round of the quarterback. I think you will. There's been very little buzz about this, I feel. You know, you read some of the, but if you look at kind of the local reporting in Detroit, there hasn't been a lot of buzz about them taking a quarterback in the first round.

I just think they're a very tight-lipped organization. I just think the time is right for what you said. They're on such a good path. The roster is good. I like the roster. They were probably the fourth best team in the NFC by the end of last year. I don't know whether it means. saying it's six and waiting, whether it means moving up, like you said, whether it means moving

back, whether it means Hendon Hooker later in the first round. But Jared Goff is under contract for the next two years. And I just, it's hard for me to envision a scenario where they say, you know what, there's a likely chance after those two years we're going to want to extend Jared Goff and make him our long-term starter to put us in contention to win the Super Bowl for multiple years. Maybe that happens. Weird things happen in the NFL, it could happen. He could play great this year and all of a sudden we're talking about an extension after the season. I don't think that's the most likely scenario.

Brad Holmes often talks about how GMing is about making decisions under uncertainty. That's exactly right. That's exactly what it is. The NFC is wide open. His job right now is to balance the present with the future. Now, think about the upside here, Ben. I mean, if you're a Lions fan, like if you hit on a QB, in this draft, you're legitimately talking about the best stretch of Lions football during the Super Bowl era.

I know that's a low bar to clear, but hey, that, you know, like Lions fans, I remember when I first started writing about the NFL and I'm ripping the Lions and they, you know, they kind of get defensive and I'm like, how does this fan base still have this hope after all these years? Well, now there's actually a legitimate reason to have this hope. Here's the other thing. They have the luxury of, it's not going to ruin their franchise if they miss. on a quarterback. Like if they take a big swing on Anthony Richardson or something and he doesn't work out, you're not like, like for some of these teams, it's over. For them, it's not over. I mean,

you have golf for the next two years. You can figure out a veteran solution, a Band-Aid solution. You could figure out your next move. And so you really can kind of have your cake and eat it too. They are in this rare position, maybe the only team in the first round who has the ability to, hey, if we miss on a quarterback, it's not going to crush us. If we hit on a quarterback, man, it sets us up as well as almost any NFC team for the next five years or so. So I think we're aligned there. I think that's one thing. We disagree on many things.

I think we've been aligned on the Lions quarterback situation since like week 12 of last year when we first started talking about it. And I just feel like, you know, everything you said is true, that this is the time, this is the draft. You're in position at number six. You don't, the risk is low. the upside is high. I think for as much as you love Jared Goff, this is the time to make a move. So, man, we'll see. That will be exciting. It will be exciting if the lines either, you know, at some

point in the first round, find that quarterback. I think it will be a smart move. They still have the other pick. They can still get another good player. They still have tons of draft capital to add to the roster, which is already very strong. So we will see what they do there. All right. That was exciting. All right. Number three, what do you got, Benjamin, for you, a third. prediction here. Oh, holy smokes. I was going to be like, no, Shiel, it's time for your second prediction. I know. I had the same one. Yeah. We'll have a long extra point taken today. We're not used to doing shorter shows. So we'll have to fire off some takes with the extra point taken. I know. We got we have nothing to, uh, nothing to debate here. Okay. Last but not least.

Bejohn Robinson's going top 10. I don't think this, like, I don't think this is spicy. I don't understand why it is. I think that we've got it. to the point in in overall draft discourse in like the media space where like top 10 running back stop the presses headliner 1a and I just don't think that's the case for the league I don't think they mind it I think they want it to be an elite caliber player whereas at other positions like they're much more comfortable taking like elite tester who needs some polish offensive tackle at edge you know oh like you know a quality guy quarterback like a premium positions they'll take lesser caliber players in the top 10.

But if a guy's in elite talent, a guy's in elite talent, I think that's the case with Bijon Robinson. You've heard that the Eagles have done a ton of work on him. There's been Beijon to Eagles smoke a lot of it over the last few days. I remain suspicious. I think that the team that stands out to me at eight is the Atlanta Falcons. That connection has been strong all year. And then it gets beaten back with like other ideas where it's like,

nah, they're really like Nolan Smith. It's like, well, Ryan Nielsen's the new DC. And his edge rushers are two. 270 pounds and Nolan Smith, 240 pounds. I don't buy it. Like, well, actually, they really like Christian Gonzalez. It's like, well, they have AJ Terrell and they trade it for Jeff Akuta, and they don't actually need a good corner to that badly because Ryan Nielsen came from the Saints where they constantly cycled in different corner twos and had a lot of success. Like, none of this passes the smell test. It just feels like you like Bejohn and you're trying to

convince us who like other players who aren't him. And the corner could still make logical sense them, I wouldn't mind it. But I think that you have two good running back landing spots for Bejohn Robinson in the top 10. The other team that I think is a great Bejohn Robinson location to kind of bring this thing full circle to my first take is the Houston Texans. We're there at 12 and they don't necessarily, I don't think they'd have to trade up for them. Maybe Bejon's going to be a top 12 pick is a safer take than the top 10 pick. But I tell you, the Texans roster is terrible. They have multiple years worth of reloading that they need to do. and Bijon Robinson's going to be, if he's there at 12, the best player left on the board.

I wouldn't blink twice at a San Francisco-inspired coaching staff loves to run the football, taking Bejohn-Robinson very early and saying, wow, what a coup. We got our starting quarterback and our started running back. These are foundational pieces for our offense, especially for a team that has left tackle already handled. You know what I'm saying? These are the important spots that are left. Again, I think that like the same way with what I was talking with Stroud earlier in, I think there's a public perception on Stroud

that isn't equivalent to the league. I think there's a public perception on running back value that isn't equivalent to the league. You go and you look back at like the first round running backs who've been taken recently, Josh Jacobs and Segoin Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott.

The GMs who did that that weren't also the owners of their team are no longer the GMs of those teams. And so like there isn't actually a great historical president for taking first round running backs. And I understand why there's there's, there's squeamishness around it.

But the team that takes him is like, yeah, we've got a really, really, really good player in the building. Who we think is going to be highly valuable for us in a record contract. We're going to give him a ton of carries and he's going to be an impact player for us on early downs. They're not going to blink at it. And like ancillary take, he's not going to be the only running back. He goes round one. Alabama running back, Jamir Gibbs is going around one, man. Like he's like 66% chance right now.

It's fatal sports, but complied odds. They're, reportedly there are teams that have him ranked above Bejan. I think that's BS. But still, like, this is a, this is a two first round. running back class because the bad overall class was really good running back. So Bejan's going to go top 10. Addendum to the ancillary take, you shouldn't be pissed if your team does it. He's good. It's not your money, man. Okay, I'm done. All right. This is a complicated one. First of all, I agree with you. It was actually the take I had written for my third take and then I switched to something else.

Thank goodness. So yeah, otherwise this would have been maybe our worst podcast of all time. All right. I do think he's going to go in the top 10. I think Atlanta's a good one. Can I throw it a, I mean, are we sure that the Seahawks aren't going to get up there at five? They're not. Kenny's so good. You're sure? Okay. All right.

Okay. Just making sure that they're not going to say this is the best player available. This is generational back. We want to run the football. He's going to be our guy here. I don't think the Eagles are taking him at 10. That would still shock me. But I think you outlined the right team there.

Maybe someone, you know, it's possible someone just outside the top 10. moves up and takes him. So the nerd argument for not taking a running back in the top 10, most of it is very valid. I mean, if you look at kind of the positions in the first round that from an analytical perspective where the best players come from, it's the premium positions, quarterback, you know, offensive tackle, corner wide receiver, maybe defensive tackle, running backs that, you know, the thought is, hey, you can find good running backs for not a lot of money, not a lot of resources. And so it's not a matter of do you like Bejan or do you not like Bijon, it's a matter of, hey, you could hit on somebody who plays for you for longer,

who you feel better about signing to a second contract, who plays a premium position, and then you can go sign a running back for $2 million who might be 70% of Bijon Robinson, and that would be a better use of your resources. So I absolutely understand that thinking. And then your point was a good one. I mean, every year we think we know, well, Bijon Robinson looks like a can't miss generational prospect, but there's kind of a history of running backs in the first round, and it's not like they always hit.

I mean, it is kind of hit or miss. Now, I'm with you. I love him as a player. If you are a fan and your team takes him, I'm with you. You're like, this is going to be, if you view watching football or watching your favorite team as like, as a TV show, this is maybe the most fun character you can add to your TV show for three hours on Sunday in the fall and in the winter. So it's going to be a big story one way.

the other. It always is when a running back gets taken high. I like everything about him. I feel like he's the prototype. If you just drew up what you want from a running back in the year 20, 23, he basically has all of those skills at the same time. We should always have a little bit of uncertainty with our evaluations of these players. And I think the conversation around resource allocation is absolutely a valid one. But I'm with you. I think he will go 10. I think he goes no later than 16 to Washington to me would be the floor for Bijon Robinson if he gets out of the top 10. One more Bejon team that I forgot that I'm praying for.

Just praying for. Texans trade Derek Henry and draft Bejon Robinson at 11. Please. Please. I will bathe in the anger of football nerds for 24 hours straight. If they trade Derek Henry just to draft Bejohn Robinson.

not going to do it, but it would be amazing. He would set a NFL record for carries in the season, I think, if they'd- Oh, I love it. They would just be handing him the ball, time in, and time-out. All right, let's take a quick break. We'll come back. I'll get to my third prediction, and then we're going to do some draft over unders to close out the show. All right, back on extra point take. I was trying to come up with the third one, Ben, here's what I got. Remember a couple of years ago, draft morning, Adam Schaefter comes out with the report. Aaron Rogers. What was it? It wants to be traded. I don't even remember. Was that? Yeah, go ahead. Can I tell you, I was live, I was with the draft network at the time, we were doing a live show.

And so we're spending Thursday, the morning of the NFL draft, setting up studio and like running tests and like making sure that we're going to be able to go live when it's time to go live. And then that news breaks. And the only person we had the capability to go live with was me in Studio B. And I had no preparation for Aaron Rogers thing whatsoever. And for like two hours, I was just on, like we were tossing a guest and like bringing people on and like I was not ready at all. It was terrifying. And it was my first like, welcome to showbiz moment where I was like, Aaron Rogers, how old is he again?

Like, what is Aaron Rogers currently up to right now? I had no prep. It was horrible. See, that's why you should be speaking. You know, we had a conversation before you said, I'm not equipped to speak to like, you know, journalists. I'm glad that's a great story. You tell him, listen, you got to be ready for anything in this business.

It's a cutthroat podcast. I'm not ready for anything right now. I still don't know how old Aaron Rogers is. You never know what's going to happen. Aaron Rogers turns 40 in December. I only know that because we've talked about him roughly 4,000 times on this podcast. So anyway, the genesis of my prediction number three is that we're going to get another big story on draft morning. That is going to basically be the talk of the day leading up to the draft after the draft. I can't believe this story

broke on draft morning. And it's going to be one of the following three things. Are you ready? Oh, yes. number one Tom Brady is having second thoughts about retiring I'm not interested pass you're not you're done with it

I could see like an ESPN's Jeff Darlington breaking this bad boy I could see Brady's been off for four months he's like this sucks I'm very bored look at these scrub quarterbacks getting big money I've kind of got the itch here maybe the 49ers you know they trade

tray Lance and he just gives Kyle another call there we see what happens but that's one of them. Two, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have agreed to terms on a new long-term contract.

Lamar saw Jalen Hertz's deal. He says, you know what? That's a good deal. I'm going to take it. I'm going to get guaranteed money. It's not quite what I wanted, but it's a nice deal. It's over $50 million per year.

I think it's fair based on what Hertz got. Ravens promised me they're going to draft Jackson Smith and Jigba in the first round. round. I'll have him. I'll have Rashad Bateman. I will have Mark Andrews and I'll have Odell Beckham Jr. Let's go compete for a Super Bowl next year. What do you think? Lamar Jackson. Do you think it's more likely we read that headline or it's more likely that by the end of draft weekend we get we get something that says Team X after missing out on QB in the draft decides to explore Lamar Jackson option? Which do you think is more likely on draft weekend? I think the second one is more likely. I think the second one is

more likely. I don't... Okay. What incentivizes Lamar to not see through the draft, right? Like, it would have to be, like, he gets the offer from the Ravens to ask for it to not actually, like, let the draft go through and, like, see how day one and day two lands and see if that shakes up anything.

You see what I'm saying? Like, I'd be surprised. I don't see what Lamar gains from taking a deal on day one. Day three slash, like, day four, you know, whatever. Like, after round one, round two, the dust is settled and people have talked. Then, yeah, like, all right, take the best deal from the Ravens. Like, that would make sense. if you're kind of dumb with this. But you got to at least see through day one and see if it changes

anything for you. That's probably true. You're probably right about that. He's really not incentivized to agree to anything for a long time. Honestly, there's no rush, and I think his heels are kind of dug in. He can at least wait until Herbert and Burrough sign if he wants to, and then he'll have three contracts to compare it to. Listen, that's why I came up with three headlines. All right, you're yawning, you're so bored with the first two. Here's the third one. I'm been busy, so sure. The Patriots Trade Mac Jones

That's the one That's the one All right Where are the Now listen I wrote So I wrote that a couple teams Raiders

Do you think the Raiders So the Raiders you think are not going To get a land a quarterback in the first round Correct? Based on your other predictions or no I think they're going to try But I don't think They're going to succeed

Okay All right. You think they're going to try. Don't succeed. So say the Raiders come out of it. They don't get a quarterback. They've got Jimmy G. For a year at least. But they, but, you know, Josh McDaniels talks to Bill Belichick. They say, hey, let's work on a deal. Who are the other teams? The Texans, perhaps. If they don't take a quarterback, they could call about Matt Jones, right? Okay. Because of that Raiders are there. I would say like the Titans are a non-zero percent chance, but that one's kind of been honest. I like that one.

But yeah, just in terms of like. teams that are going to be on the outside of the quarterback situation looking in. It's difficult to think of any teams after pick 14 getting Mac. The only way that works is if the Patriots somehow get a quarterback in the top of the draft without trading Mac. I think they would want to trade Mac. I wouldn't be surprised as well if Mac goes to Arizona because the Patriots want to get from 14 to 3. and I don't know how committed the Cardinals are to Kyla Murray's future rehabilitation

and also playing with Arizona Yes, but that's like That's more like He gets traded to Arizona Like if three team trades existed in the NFL I would say like in a three team trade But I like I wouldn't be surprised You that pages are trying to get to three

And are also comfortable moving off of Mac After that's really hard to figure out What to do from there But like those two things I think are both realistic and then the rest of the calculus is hard to find out. Which quarter, so get to three to draft a quarterback, you're saying? Yeah. Which quarterback do you think Bill Belichick would like in this draft?

You've done all the charting, you mention it, you've watched all these guys, you know a Bill Belichick. Like, how do you think you would stack the top, let's say, four quarterbacks in this draft? I'm putting you on the spot. This is like your draft network days. They were bringing it all, bringing it all around with a little improv here. Can I pass on ranking Bryce? because ranking Bryce is impossible and he's not going to be there?

Sure. Do the other three. Yeah, we can do that. Levis, Richardson, Stroud. Stroud third, really? Yeah. I mean, Stroud, like, because the thing is, like, if you make prototypes as simple as, like, do they throw from the pocket, yes or no,

then it's like, Tom Brady, pocket passer, Mac Jones, pocket passer, Seater Stroud, Pocket Passer, they're all the same. But they're really not. Like, if Brady and Mac shared anything, which, like, I don't think Mac was similar to Brady and that whole narrative in 2021 drove me nuts. But if they hear anything, it's like really quick and dynamic pocket footwork and then really quick release, right? They're both the kind of like compact athletes. Stroud is gangly, right? Stroud is is a pocket passer, but he's still like he's like long, he's a little bit of elongated release.

He's not like the fastest processor. It's not the same style of pocket play as what Brady had. And then what Mac allegedly has, which again, I kind of think is is contrived. I more so put my eyes to like Levis has that really compact release Levis is really, really tough in the pocket, you can stand in there and take a hit. And then with Richardson, I put my eyes to the Cam Newton era and just the amount of fun

that Bill Belichick had with an offense that was running quarterback dependent and they used him in the short yardage game in the red zone. And then also Belichick's historical issues deal, not historical I should say, recent issues dealing with quarterback mobility. This is the thing that has really stumped

his defenses of future years. And if you want to know what a defensive coach is going to draft offensively, go look at the stuff that their defense has been bad at stopping. That's the stuff that they think is the B's knees. I feel similarly with Domeco. Yet he hasn't done that at all, except for Cam Newton as kind of a last resort type thing. I mean, they took, did they take Mac over Justin Field or was that after?

I can't remember. No, they took Mac after Fields. I will say, I don't think from my collection of rumor mongering, that like Bill ever felt great about Mac. I don't think, I like, I don't, I don't, I don't think the Mac Jones pick was like super Bill Belichick driven. As Bill Belichick driven as other picks, put it in that. What?

He makes every decision. What do you mean? There's an owner there that's involved. Yeah. With the money. Yeah. All right. And whether or not, okay, even then like 20, 21, I think lessons learned.

Like, listen, you can't tell me. that the head coach who hired his friend from the defensive coaching staff, Matt Patricia, to be the offensive coordinator, really values and treasures the second year quarterback in that offense. That's just like putting the pieces together, in my opinion. I don't think the Mack Jones pick is predictive of how Bill Belichick will behave at the quarterback position. With that said, Will Levis still number one because Will Levis seems like an NFL quarterback.

Okay. Really good again. Really good to get the play calls in, Will Levis is. You read this right now like he's so good at reciting the play calls. It's impressive. I mean, I hear what you're saying about the ownership with the Mac Jones thing, but I don't think Bill Belichick is going to stand there and let Robert Kraft make a decision on who the next quarterback's going to be when he, you know, with the way he's operated

in the past. But hey, now after 25 and 25 the last three seasons and whether it's a, I want to trade Jones, no, we're not trading Mac Jones. You know, you're not, might not be the coach here next year. things are in play where the Patriots have an unsettled feeling. Last question here, because I wanted to squeeze this team into a prediction and I couldn't get them in there. Minnesota Vikings, what is their plan in the next year at the quarterback position? They have Kurt Cousins for a year. Are they a team that could potentially do something surprising this weekend? Do they just not have

the resources to do it? And they're going to play out the year with Cousins and then figure it out. what is your set? Because I do feel like they're sort of an under-the-radar. I think they're going to do something at some point team, but I'm not sure what, and I'm not sure when.

Where are you with the Vikings? You and all of the Vikings' hopefuls are just going to be so devastated when they stay exactly put and draft Joey Porter Jr. and then do nothing else in the first round. They might take hit and hooker, though. Yeah, I don't know.

We'll say. Well, it's just a team I have my eye on. All right, let's finish the show with an extra point. taking Benny Souls is bringing up some draft draft props on Fandall. Let's kick him around and see what we think here. Go on the record with some draft props.

Ben, what do you got? Yeah, so first one, first overall pick, Bryce Young minus 2,400. Do we feel good about that? Okay. It's 2400. Wow. It's happening.

I brought this up earlier. Right now the number two overall pick odds are we'll love us minus 120, which for people who don't speak gambling, it's a little bit better than 50% chance. And then Tyree Wilson, Will Anderson and C.J. Stroud kind of round out the rest. So number two is still up in the airs. We can talk simple over unders.

Let's see. Who are you like? We can start Bejan Robinson, who right now is placed over under 13 and a half with juice to the under. You said the absolute floor is Washington at 16. I think it's 16. Yeah. Yeah. No, wait.

So over under. So if I say over 13 and a half, that means he will get taken when. drafted later than 13 and a half. Yes, that's a good point. Okay. If you haven't bet on the NFL draft before, firstly, what are you doing? Yeah, it's a good time.

I have not. No. Secondly, the listed odds are for draft position. So when we say Bijan Robinson over under 13 and a half, what we're saying is what number pick will Bejan Robinson be drafted at? If it's over 13 and a half, it's 14, 15, 16, 17. If it's under 13 and a half, it's 13, 12, 11, 10. So right now he's over under set at 13 and a half.

To me, that's not like, yeah. It opened at 16. 16 and a half and I have the under there and I think under a 13 and a half still makes sense. Very good player. Okay. He's going to take that early. All right. Let's go on to some harder ones.

Especially by the way, I meant to say this during the beach, especially in this draft specifically where it's like, you know, you get to sort of eight or nine and you're like, eh, you know, I like this guy. I like this guy, but I don't love this guy. I like this guy, like that. I think specifically in this draft, uh, I like the prospects of him going earlier than maybe he would in another draft. All right.

What do you got? All right. This is a good one. Nolan Smith edge rush out of Georgia we've talked about him a couple times 240 pounder

over under 11 and a half Nolan Smith for the first 11 players taken see okay so the sucker bet there is to say no way over this is a fun player an athletic player

but like you said 230 pounds who just admitted 30 seconds ago he's never been on the draft goes well the sucker bet is obviously over just 11 and a half sacks in four seasons

for Nolan Smith coming off and in you know suffered a season ending injury last year yet I think teams will look at it and say ooh I like the upside I like the next Hassan redick here but man I think I would probably go with the sucker bet there I think I would go over there there've been a couple of like you all don't realize everybody writing the mock drafts like Nolan Smith's going to go way earlier than you think but the list of teams who we have enough data to say like all right these teams are comfortable taking edge rushes under this light. It's like three of them.

Like it's right, I don't dispute that he might go that early. I can't figure out who's going to do. Like I brought up Atlanta earlier. People connect him to Donald Smith all the time. It's not what Ryan Nielsen usually does, so it's tricky. Okay, next one. Jackson Smith in Jigba, wide receiver one, who is currently placed by Fandul at over under 12 and a half.

Very convenient location. 12? The Houston Texans have been connected to JSM quite a lot. 13, the New York Jets have been connected to J.S.N. A couple times recently. Not an accident that is placed here. I will say right now there's heavy, heavy, heavy, heavy, heavy, heavy juice to the over.

Which is people saying it's way, way, way, way more likely. He's going over 12 and a half after 12 and a half than before 12 and a half. Where are you at? Yeah, I like Jackson and Smith and Chigbaa a lot. Like I think in the right spot he can just be an absolute monster and be, you know, offensive rookie of the year next year at the same. same time, I do kind of like the over. I think, you know, one thing is there's these offensive tackles that really could define the first round. Like, how many offensive tackles do you think

are going to go in the first round? We know Paris Johnson. We know Broderick Jones is going to go in the first round. Skoronski, I don't know if we're counting him as a guard or a tackle, but let's just count him as a tackle since he played tackle in college. That's three. Darnel Wright from Tennessee. I think he's definitely going to go. 100%. in the first round, and then is there another, are there other guys who you think are going to go in the first round? I think Florida Guard Osiris Torrance has a great shot. I think Anton Harrison, Office of Tackle out of Oklahoma,

is going to. So I would say we got at least six. Okay. The marks have been set at 5.5, 6.5, kind of intermittently throughout the season. Then your next tier is DeWan Jones out of Ohio State. Steve Avila at TCU. He's a guard.

the centers are John Michael Schmitz out of Minnesota and Joe Timmon out of Wisconsin you see them occasionally get into first rounds I'd be surprised I'm like now that one of those guys that could Garrett Bradbury Tyler Linderbaum like the quality of center usually see go round one and then the wild card my son Matthew Bergeron

I'll have to tackle to Syracuse good player like him a lot so I think you're gonna have at least six with the potential like of seven plus the tackle position specifically extremely top heavy class name the good developmental tackle every year in the draft

and it's always like oh grab this guy grab this athlete oh this dude out of Western Missouri is fun doesn't exist this year no one are they there's the Northern Michigan kid

that's it yeah yeah I think the tackles are going to go very high in this draft and so I would push Smith and Jigba down and take the over there because I think those offensive linemen

are going to go and then you've obviously got the quarterbacks some defensive players but I don't feel great about that one. Well, let's talk a little offensive lineman then. You brought up Broderick Jones. His over under is 13 and a half. And then I will say as well, right now odds to be a top 10 pick.

You can't even bet on Paris Johnson and Peter Skoronski because presumably they're so likely to go top 10 that the books don't want to lose money on them. Wow. Yes. So I say you'd definitely expect those guys to be top 10 pick. Broder Jones over under 13 and a half. You're getting the Jets in there? I like the under.

I mean, I think, yeah, if somebody who can play multiple tackle positions, very athletic, high upside might not be all the way there yet, but those guys typically go higher. So I actually like that one quite a bit, Broder of Jones under. Peter Skronsky is over under 10.5,

which, yes, under. Bears at 9 seem like a real logical spot, right? Absolutely. One of those two. Couple more. All right, let's finish it out with a couple more. Yeah. Yeah.

Dalton Kincaid, very highly touted tight end out of Utah, whose back also doesn't work. 24 and a half, she'll figure it out. I actually, he's somebody I wanted to ask you about previously because I'm going over on Dalton Kincaid. You just mentioned it, recovering from a back injury. Okay, he turns 24 years old as a rookie. Like, is that the profile of a tight end who goes in the first round? Generally, I know he's a good, good player, a fun player.

Hopefully he stays healthy and has a great career. But anytime I hear back injury and a player who's 24 years old, I'm like, I'm not spending a first-round pick on a player like that. I would go over. What do you think? You've studied a Dalton Kincaid? Absolutely over on Dalton Kincaid. First tight end selected market has Michael Mayer as a decent favorite, right?

It sees minus 175 to don't Kincaid's plus 130. I'm on mayor all every day of the week and twice on Sundays on that market right now, which it's moved a lot. But it's, to me, there's still value there. I don't think you can take Kincaid this early. The other thing that we recently heard is that Darnall Washington, the tight end out of Georgia, there's rumors that he's been medically failed by some teams. So Kincaid and Darnow Washington now, the top of the tight end classes beat up.

Luke Musgraves had injuries. Sam Laporteus had injuries. Michael Mayer just been out there chopping wood in Notre Dame, baby. Just been out there being healthy, just a vigorous young man with working ligaments and a great back. I mean, that's valuable at the top. What you were talking about with NFL teams liking a quarterback, I mean, I could just, Michael Mare, there's going to be, there's going to be someone in every draft room. Like, let's just take my guy.

And I like Michael Mare a lot. I think he's going to be really good. All right. Do you have one for us to finish the show on? What do you got? Yes. You like Azay Flowers? Wide receiver out of Boston College.

I like a Zay Flowers. I would not say I like I probably compared to consensus and probably a little bit lower just for some historical precedent stuff but I really liked his film. Over under 22 and a half on Zay Flowers, which again, you're getting

in the under there. Seattle at 20, need a wide receiver 3. Chargers at 21, need a wide receiver 3. Ravens at 22, need a wide receiver 2 slash 3 depending on how you feel about the health of O'Dell Beckham Jr. These lines are not set by accident, folks. They're set of very specific spots.

Zayflowers over under 22 and a half. I personally own some Zayflowers under. I own some Zayflowers, first wide receiver selected, which you can get right now at like plus 400 or something bananas. Zay is awesome. I think he's going round one where you had, show. What don't you have? We should have just gone what you do not have action on,

it sounds like, based on your, uh, things, things that won't happen. Okay. I, in my one and only mock draft on the ringer.com, which you can read, I have the bills taking Zayflowers at 27. So I am going to take the over there for Zay flowers. All right. There you go. And those are some fun props to finish it out there.

The draft market, the props are always interesting because, as we've talked about before, a lot of response to sort of various media reports and stuff comes in late and stuff will come in. leading up to the draft, and so we'll see what happens there. All right, those are our draft predictions. You can listen to more of Ben's takes on the Ringer draft show. I will be back on this show throughout the week with Nora Preciati and Stephen Ruiz, and of course, Ben and I will be on the Philly Special talking Eagle-specific draft stuff. Thanks to everybody for listening.

Thank you to Cliff Augustine for producing additional production supervision. by Connor Nevins and our Juno Ramgapal. Ben and I will be back next Monday on next year. Well, I don't know, we'll do our maybe our three favorite draft classes or as I will come up with some format. We'll break down the draft then as well. So be sure to listen. And all right, everybody, enjoy the draft. And we will talk to you soon.