The Ringer NFL Show - Three Numbers That Explain the MVP Race, the Micah Parsons Injury, and Seahawks-Rams Stake

Episode Date: December 16, 2025

Sheil is joined by Seth Walder from ESPN to dive into the crucial data surrounding some of the biggest hot-button topics buzzing around the NFL. (00:00) Three numbers: The MVP race, the Parsons injury, and Seahawks-Rams(1:22) The MVP betting odds(9:14) Micah Parsons's pass rush win rate for the Packers(16:30) Rams vs. Seahawks playoff ramifications(26:42) The Hurry Up: The end of Patrick Mahomes’s second phase Shopping. Streaming. Celebrating. It’s on Prime. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Host: Sheil KapadiaGuest: Seth WalderProducer: Chris SuttonSocial: Kiera Givens and Brian WatersProduction Supervision: Conor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopowell Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm your host, Shield Capadia. Today, we are looking at three interesting numbers after week 15. Our guest is ESPN Seth Walder. I asked him to come to the table with three things he finds interesting and he brought it with nuggets on. The MVP race, the impact of the Michael Parsons injury and Thursday night's massive rammed Seahawks matchup. He's going against the grain with some of these. We'll see if. I agree or I disagree with him. So let's take a break. Come back with ESPN, Seth Walder. This episode of The Ringer NFL show is presented by State Farm. Having insurance isn't the same as having State Farm. It's like expecting the leadership of a team captain on the football field, but getting a sea captain? Sure, they're both captains, but who is going to run your offense? You wouldn't settle for just anything for your team, so don't settle for just any insurance. When it comes to getting to help you need. State Farm is the real deal. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there.

All right, we are back here on the Ringer NFL show with ESPN. Seth Walder, love having him on. He always makes me think, you know, tells me something I don't know. Seth, I feel bad. I gave you like homework this time, which I don't like to give the guest's homework, but I'm like, I want to know what does Seth find interesting here? Give me some nuggets. So you did the work. Three nuggets, numbers, takes, whatever, however we want to frame them, what's the first one you have for us? Firstly, I like it. I appreciate it. And what are we doing on the Monday anyway, right? We're just looking, I'm digging through numbers, trying to find interesting things that I'm going to write about or talk about over the course of the week. So, you know, hey, this is good.

I like to find these takes early. Okay, let's start with the MVP race. Okay. Matthew Stafford is, I think, minus 300 to be the MVP at this point. Big move yesterday of course, with the Rams winning and the Patriots losing, that really changed the odds on this race. And I am here to say, I don't think Matthew Stafford is the MVP. Ooh. And he's not a great season.

You know, he's had a great season. If you were making me right down a vote, I think I would be, I would, I think that it's an interesting race. I just think I wouldn't pick Stafford. He is, I'm going to lay a whole bunch of numbers for you. He's fourth in QBR, fifth in EPA, play and fifth and total EPA. I think you can be the MVP with those numbers, depending on the other sort of context

around there. But the rest of this context doesn't, to me, scream MVP because I think Matthew Stafford has had a lot of support. He has the Rams ranked seventh in pass block win rate. No team uses play action at a higher rate than the Rams. He is only 12th in completion percentage of our expectation. so that's, you know, that's fine, but not, not anything to write home about. He's got exceptional receivers, right, going, you know, looking backwards.

We'll see what happens with Tavante Adams going forward. Yeah. The Rams have a great rushing game, right? Second in EPA per design carry and a great defense. Sixth in EPA per defense, so he's getting strong, not outrageous, but six best starting field position. All of these things to me are like numbers to say, hey, if you're only fourth with all of that support should you be number one. Are you the number one most valuable guy? And I want to know if you

or if you're with me here, Sheel. I am actually with you. And I'm going to ask you in a second, we're going to keep the audience waiting on who we would vote for MVP. I think it's probably the same person, but maybe you'll surprise me. But yeah, you know, we've all done the work on MVP and it's a predictable award. You've got to be a quarterback. You've got to be the one or the two seat in your conference and you have to have the numbers. And you could, you know, you might say Seth was giving us, you know, some nerdy numbers there. She'll are people, actually, if you look back in history, like you have to, you have to win the nerdy numbers thing, you know, the counting numbers too, but also the EPA stuff.

I just went and I looked back before the season. I don't know if I went back 10 years, 20 years or whatever, but it was basically like, yeah, you got to be around top five in EPA. You don't have to be first, you know, you could be third or fourth, like you said, with Stafford. So I think that, you know, when you break it down like that, they've got a good chance to be the one seat, although it's not a lock, which I think we're going to talk more. more about later in the show. He's got the numbers, like you said, not overwhelming,

but he fits the profile of an MVP candidate. So I think it really comes down to the supporting cast. And this is where it gets interesting, because to your point, Adams, Puka Nakua, Sean McVeigh, O-line, Best Run Game in the NFL, even if we take out the defense and just say, how's the offense performing? Like, that offensive infrastructure is there for him in a way

that I don't think it's there for the other guys. he's competing with. So to your point, he's had a great season. No one's denying he hasn't had a great season. He's worthy of the conversation. I actually would vote for somebody else right now if we were deciding right now. So who would that person be, Seth, for you? And what is your case? It's really close. I would vote for Drake May right now. Is that your guy? Me too. Okay. Yeah. So for me, it's like May is, he's, so he's third in QBR. He would be, he would be basically tied for first if we take out the opponent adjustments. We shouldn't, though. I'm just saying, like, that is big, the easy schedule is baked in there when it comes to

QBR in that way. But all the sort of support that we just talked about with Stafford, a lot of it is lacking with May. Yeah, I mean, I just look at the, like you said, the infrastructure around him. And to me, it's no contest. I mean, Matt Collins had, all due respect to Matt Collins, had eight targets on Sunday. And, like, Pooka Nakuwa is one of the best wide receivers I've seen in the last few years. Like, historically good player right now.

and then you mentioned it digs, Hunter, Henry, you just go to the box score on the Patriots on Sunday. Those are the names you're reading. You mentioned the offensive line. Even I would go coordinator, and I think Josh McDaniels has done a good job this season. But if we go track record, like, it's no contest between McVeigh and Josh McDaniels, who's consistently produced good offenses.

So, yeah, I look at that. And then it's like if May's numbers are not, if May's numbers are better than Stafford's, and if he's going to be the one or the two seat, I'm trying to avoid the recency bias. You mention it. The odds shifted this weekend because one guy's team won and the other guy's team lost in a game where his defense gave up touchdowns on five straight possessions. Now, I'm not telling you May played his best game of the season on Sunday against the bills.

He certainly did not. But this is an entire body of work here. And so I actually still feel pretty good, Seth, that there's a chance that by the end of the season, this is going to be more of the consensus. When you look at kind of what each guy has coming up here, I mean, Stafford's going up against one of the top. office defense is in the NFL on Thursday. I think May is in a big spot against the Ravens on Sunday night. A lot of people are going to be watching that game. I think he's going to get right back in it.

I don't think there should be much of a split. I mean, to me, if you want to tell me it's a coin toss or whatever right now, that's kind of more where I'm at. I agree. I mean, and I don't think that it should be this way, but we know that when it comes to who will be the MVP, the team performance matters. But the Patriots are still over 50% to be a one or a two seed.

and the Rams are at 63% by our numbers to be a one or a two seed. So it's really not that different between them, and yet the odds are split so dramatically. Josh Allen have an outside chance. If they get the one team, because he'll have all the numbers, and he's got a big game coming up against the Eagles in a couple of weeks. And I just thought, like, you know,

no one's going to feel guilty about voting for Josh Allen. You're like, all right, if I look back at this in 10 years, I'm going to be like, that probably was the, right decision. I think there's a case, but I, you know, he did not play his best ball at the beginning of this year. And it's like one of those things where I think, if we're judging, I just hope it doesn't go completely lost. Like we don't just look at the, if they go on a stretch run, yeah. You have to, all 17 games matter. And so like he is a little bit worse than all these other guys in efficiency catches up. And so then it's just some, just sort of a moot point. But it is a factor.

Yeah. They would have to, I mean, they have what, 29, 30. percent chance to win the division. So the odds are still stacked against them. And he would have to have to have some big time moments and the stats would have to look a certain way. So I think we're on the same page. I think we're both against consensus against the grain. I mean, the betting markets would tell you that, but we are on the same page there with the MVP. And again, Stafford's been awesome. And maybe Stafford will play lights out down the stretch. If he lights up the Seahawks on Thursday night, that's a big deal too. So yes, there's more football to be played. But I'm with you. I don't think there's a major gap there as the betting markets might indicate.

All right, what is the next nugget that you have for us, Seth? Okay, so obviously, Micah Parsons News huge this week. And so one of the things, of course, I'm going to look at is what the effect is going to be for Parsons, losing Parsons on the Packers. This is a team with title aspirations. And I really wasn't going into this exercise thinking this would be one of the topics we would hit, but then I saw the numbers and it really kind of blew me away. the big one right off the bat.

Pass rush win rate. This is our measure of how often is a team have a one or more pass rushers beat their blocker within two and a half seconds on a play. On plays when the Packers have had Michael Parsons on the field this season, they have a 43.9%

pass rush win rate. That would have ranked third or that would rank third if we look at if that had been over the course of the whole year. On plays without Parsons, that number drops to 23.4%, that would be worst in the NFL. Whoa. Which is crazy to me.

That is a wild drop. Now, look, on-off splits in football, you get, it's always dangerous, there's always a little crazy. But we're not talking about like no plays here. I mean, there's 160-something plays without Micah Parsons.

And that is a really alarming number. Zoom out to the whole picture, okay? EPA per dropback with and without Parsons. 0.06, EPA for dropback with Parsons on the field, it's kind of average, and then 0.15 without Parsons. That drops them down to 26. And then here's one that I thought was really interesting. I wasn't necessarily expecting to be as extreme.

Pass rate over expectation against the team. So considering game situation and all of that, so pass rate over expectation from the defensive perspective with Parsons on the field, defenses were negative 10%. So they were passing at a rate 10 percentage points lower than expected when parcels was on the field, understandably.

That number jumps to plus 2% without him. So that's a huge gap in the way that offenses were responding and that just means that they're more likely to just keep passing on Green Bay going forward, which is unideal. Yeah, so let's put all that stuff into context because the on-off splits, like you said in football,

they can be noisy. But as you were talking, I remembered Seth when the trade was made. And what did we all look at? We looked at the Cowboys with and without Parsons over the years. And they kind of went from like one of the best defenses, if not the best defense in football to the worst defense in football when he was off the field. So we have that context. And now you're you're telling me with these numbers, they go from a top five pass rushing unit to the worst past rushing unit without Micah Parsons. That's one. They go from like an average, past defense to maybe a bottom six or seven past defense when they don't have Micah Parsons there. And then I love that last one because you hear broadcasters talk about this all the time. I think it was just this last weekend. I don't know if it was Brady or Romo or who it was, but it was like, I don't know if it was Chris Jones or somebody was getting a break. And they're like, pass the ball right now. Like their best pass rusher is not on the, whether you're going hurry up or that guy needed a breather.

Like coaches look at this. quarterbacks look at this way when that one guy who is so freaking hard to block who we spent all week coming up with a game plan for it. What's our plan? When he's on the sideline getting a breather, hey, now's a good time to call our shot play down field. So that is something that absolutely affects stuff like game script and how you're going to game plan against the Parker's against the Packers. So this isn't good news. Packers fans. And, you know, I was even looking at this job. It was just like how good has this Packers defense been?

Because there's been weeks where I look at them and go, they look like a. really good defense. And there's other weeks where I look at them and I go, eh, you know, I don't know. And on this season, they're 18th in EPA per drive. And that's with Michael Parsons having played every single game. And then you add in Boe Nix's game against them this last weekend where he had like his best game of the season. And I wish we were coming on here and giving Packers fans some comfort about, hey, maybe they can still do it. But I don't think that's where either of us are with this team after this Parsons entry. I feel like I'm usually, when we're talking about a single player and it's a non-quarterback injury,

I'm usually probably more inclined to say this can be overcome. And I think this is one of those few players where it really might not be. Yeah, this is like, you know, I don't know if you have any emotional eating advice for Packers fans. This is one of the, you know, when you're a sport and your team like loses or you have that devastating Sunday and you're going to the fridge and you're like, all right, there's some, you know, cold pasta in there, whatever. It's 11.30 or 1 a.m. or whatever. I'm just breaking it. It's kind of one of those things for the Packers.

Now, I would love nothing more than, you know, a month from now, two months from now, it's going, whoa, Jordan Love put him on his back. Or, you know, Matt LaFleur stamped himself as one of the best coaches in the NFL. And those things are possible. I think the Christian Watson news I saw on ESPN.com today, you guys reporting that it's not long term. So that's good news. where the offense has that high ceiling,

it is relatively wide open, it's just going to be really tough, I think. Maybe Jeff Hathley will show something, but I just think it's going to be really tough for them to string together three or four games in a row where we're talking about them in Levi's Stadium in the Super Bowl. You know what's a weird angle out of this and it ties into the first thing we thought about?

I don't think we should rule Jordan Love out of the MVP conversation yet. And like narratively, if, I mean, they have like a 40, they could be the two seed quite easily. And narratively, if Parsons goes down, but then Love puts the team on their back and they went out from this point, I think, I think that's definitely not out of the cards. Yeah, he would have to catch fire.

Now, watching the end of the sort of how that team looked, you know, at the end of that game against the Brooklyn. But that was without Watson. Maybe, yeah, maybe Watson comes back. And again, it's not just Parsons. we talked about this on yesterday's show. It's Tucker Kraft and Elkton Jenkins and maybe Zach Tom. They're just a banged up team now at the worst possible moment.

All right, let's take a break. We come back. We get one more from Seth. This episode is brought to you by Amazon Prime. The holidays move quickly like a blitz to save the game. That's where Prime comes in with fast, free delivery. You know, my kids put together these presentations for what they want for Christmas, and they put the Amazon Prime link right in there.

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All right, let's spin it forward to week 16. We got Rams Seahawks. And I think we say all the time like, oh, this is the big game, right? This is the one this week. We've got the best game of the year. This really is the best game of the year, I think. We've got, here's the number that I'm put to it. And 11 percentage points of Super Bowl leverage, not just make Super Bowl.

win the Super Bowl leverage in this regular season game. So the Rams, I'm talking about probability to win the Super Bowl by our numbers. Rams, 17.1% chance to win the Super Bowl if they lose 23.3. If they win, Seahawks go from 6.4 with a loss to 11.2 with the win. A lot of this obviously has to do with the fact that the one seed is largely at play here. And so you've got this buy. and so the home games that buy, all of this play has huge ramifications for the playoffs.

11 percentage points is kind of underselling it actually because the 49ers also have Super Bowl, real Super Bowl leverage in this game. They move one and a half percentage points. Their chance to win the Super Bowl moves up or down, one and a half percentage points based on this game. They need the Seahawks to win because that keeps San Francisco in not just the division but the one seed conversation.

And so there's so much that is going into this game. One thing I just appreciate about this, it's like going to be a great game, and it's really cool to watch, but what I love is just, I think it's a testament, honestly, to the NFL and the way that they've structured the season, the balance that Lee has

between the regular season of playoffs. The playoffs are amazing, and yet we can have a regular season game between two teams that are going to be in the playoffs, and it's still going to move the needs, that much. Not every sport does that, where you make the sort of like must-view event

in a regular season context. And like as someone that loves games and is interested in that sort of thing, I just, that works. And I think, like college football, you know, if you're thinking about expanding and getting rid of buys and stuff, like those are the kind of questions

you've got to think about because you really have to find that right balance. And I think this is a great one. Yeah, it's like making, you know, the seed, that one seat is so valuable. You know, and we talk about how valuable it is, but I think we probably still undersell it. So this is really a situation like we had in week 18 last year between the Lions and the Vikings, where it was, all right, one of these teams is going to finish in a certain spot and the other team's going to finish in the other space. And there's just such a huge difference because the winner of this game is going to be in the driver's seat for that one seat.

So that means not only to get the buy in the first round, but also you're getting home field throughout. And it's not like the loser. It's like, okay, I get the two, you know, I'll settle for the two seed. No, you are either going to be one or you're probably going to be five. And if you're five, that means you're going on the road potentially all three rounds of the playoffs to get to the Super Bowl. So it is just so huge here. Seahawks 11 and 3.

Rams 11 and 3. Like you said, you know, you look at all the numbers. and I was just looking at the athletics simulator. And, you know, the Rams, if they win this game, then they have what? Oh, no, sorry, this is the Seahawks. They would have a 51% chance to get the one seed. I'm sure you have similar numbers. And if they lose, it goes down to 1%.

So think about that, 51% to 1%. And then you have the numbers there for the Rams as well. Yeah, that's exactly right. So the difference being that if the Seahawks win, the 49ers stay in the picture, whereas if the Rams win, then the Rams move to over 90% to take the division. The other thing is that for both these teams,

especially in light of what we just talked about, if you're the Seahawks or the Rams, I think who are you most worried about in the playoffs in the NFC? I would say each other. And so in this case, it's like you're getting the one seat and you're knocking your rival down into being a road wild card team.

for the playoffs. So I think that works. This is by far the biggest Super Bowl leverage game remaining this year. But number two is sort of interesting to me. I'm just going to throw this out there. Can you, do you want to guess? It's okay if you, you don't have to have like all three weeks with the schedule remaining. All right. So Super Bowl leverage game, I feel like I would probably want to go. Do I go to the AFC? Is it AFCNFC or is it interconference?

It's AFC. AFC, so I'm looking at the top there. I mean, the Patriots I know have the Ravens, the Broncos. Is it like Broncos Chargers? Is there still a Broncos Chargers game? I can't forget. I think I'm wrong. All right, terrible guesses.

I wouldn't have gotten this. It's Steelers Ravens Week 18, which sort of blew my mind because you wouldn't think that, right? But the reason is because that game is getting already very close to being locked in as a win and you're in losing your out. game. So like I was playing with it, it's not guaranteed, but the odds are very likely that that's what's going to happen. So I think we are setting up for a potential, I don't know, that could be the Sunday night game maybe. But it just because you have this situation where it's just going to be, you're in the playoffs or you're not in the playoffs. And even if either of those teams look like Super Bowl contenders at this very moment. Yeah. Yeah. I've heard some

conversation about like, oh, you know, a lot of the teams are locked in. And I'm like, yeah, but the NFC, there's like a mini tournament going on here with, you know, the Bears having to play the 49ers and the Lions and you have Seahawks, Ram. So I'm not one to, you know, stump for the league or stump for Roger or say, you know, the NFL's crushing it. I think it's a pretty exciting stretch run here. I mean, the NFC North thing is just, is just wild. Where the Bears for a while, it was like, all right, they're, you know, they're probably not going to be there at the end. But here we are going into week 16. it feels like they're playing their best football of the year,

and they're going to be able to decide whether they're the NFC North champs or not starting on Saturday night. Now they get a banged-up Packers team. So I think they're one and a half point underdogs, but they absolutely can win that game. So there are some fun scenarios still to play out. There's a lot left to play for.

Yes, you're right. The pure number of teams that could make the playoffs is, I guess, relatively small at this point. But there is a lot to play for right now, for sure. Let's finish with this. who do you think needs the one seed more if you're Rams or C and we can, well, let's leave the 49ers out here for a second just because their odds are lower than the other two teams.

Like which one do you feel like could still get there if they don't get the one seat and which one do you feel like it would just be such a huge boost if they were able to get the one seed? And obviously, you know, this is who would win Thursday night's game? I think Seattle needs it more. So I think... Really? I disagree. Okay, make the case.

Okay, the three worst quarterbacks since week 11 in QBR are Shador to Geno. And then Sam Darnold. Oh, no. And that caught my eye. And I noticed that over the last few weeks, they've been getting more too high coverage. He's not throwing...

I mean, in terms of his rate of downfield through, like 20-plus-yard throws is cut and cut almost in half, much more short throws. His accuracy, you know, maybe that's just randomness. His accuracy has gone way down, like both in terms. His off target rate has gone up, even though his air yards have gone down. So that to me is like, I think, a bit of a, a bit of a worrying sign. Is your case going to be about Devonda Adams for the Rams?

Is that? My case is about, you know, as the old guy here, my case is for the old man quarterback. It needs a rest. Because if you remember the end of last year, remember McVeigh didn't play Stafford in week 18. And it was like so, even though there was seating still at stake, he was clearly like, I need to prioritize this guy feeling healthy and fresh because this would be potentially a three or four game run against good opponents in weather, all those things. And I know Stafford has looked healthy this year, but if on the Rams, I would still love to just get that break. And maybe they would get it in week 18.

I don't know, but if it's a two-week break, whatever, I would like to have Matthew Stafford feeling as fresh and healthy as possible once he starts that playoff run. So it's not really about home field because I actually think both, I mean, Stafford, I saw him go to Philadelphia and play in the snow and be really competitive. I'm not really worried about Stafford playing in cold weather. The Seahawks under Mike McDonald's have had that weird thing where they're awesome on the road.

So I don't know that that's a thing either. This is really all about the buy to me. And your point is a good one. the Seahawks would have to win one fewer game, which is a huge, huge deal. But to me, getting that rest for Stafford. And then to your point, the Adams thing is true too. He's got the hamstring injury. Get him healthy.

Get him an extra week of rest if you need to and get your offense at full strength. Yeah. I find that pretty compelling. I'm not going to lie. Like those two, like having the quarterback health and then as I was talking, I thought about Adams where, I mean, if that's the difference between, you know, him coming, you know, not missing a playoff game and missing a playoff game, well, then that's pretty dramatic.

Yeah. Monster game Thursday night, Seth laid it out. All the numbers, love this. Love all the nuggets Seth brings when he comes to the table. You can check out all of his work at ESPN. Seth. Thank you so much for joining me. Thanks, Sheal.

All right. I'll be right back with the hurry up. All right, the hurry up is our closing segment where I give you a take on news in the NFL. And on Monday, Andy Reid confirmed that Patrick Mahomes did indeed suffer a torn ACL but has no damage to the rest of his knee. So I just wanted to take a second to kind of appreciate this run. I mean, Mahomes became the starter in 2018 and the Chiefs played on championship weekend for seven straight seasons. They were in the Super Bowl five times. They won three.

He wins two regular season MVP's. He was the undisputed best player. in the NFL for most of that stretch. I know before this season there was some conversation about it, but it's a stretch we might never see again from a quarterback. So now it's phase three for Mahomes and the chiefs. If you look at it, phase one, it felt like was the start of his career, the Tyreek Hill years, the high flying offense.

Phase two is after they make that Tyreek Hill trade, they say, all right, we need to commit resources to the offensive line, do some different things here, you know, They are still a Super Bowl team in that phase. And now it's phase three. Post knee surgery, post his first serious injury, season ending injury, post this season where they weren't going to make the playoffs it looks like anyway, even if he was healthy.

So we know the roster needs work. The coaching staff, honestly, could probably use a little reset, not a coaching change, but just a reset of ideas. Who do we want to be? How do we want to build this thing? And Mahomas might not look like the same guy next. year coming off of that entry, he'll be 31 years old. But there's still at least one more phase where Patrick Mahomes is in his prime. And it might be a long phase. I mean, there might be two

phases. There might be three phases if he decides to play into his late 30s or into his 40s. So it's been an unbelievable run for Mahomes, set back here. This season didn't go his way. But I don't think this is the end. I think there's another phase where we're going to be seeing that Chiefs team with Mahomes playing in Super Bowls. I appreciate everyone listening. Thank you to Seth Walder of ESPN. Thanks to Christopher Sutton for producing Kira Givens on social and additional production supervision by Connor and Evans

and Arjuna Ram Gopal. I'm Shil Kapadia. We will be back tomorrow on the Ringar NFL show. Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in D.C., Kentucky or Wyoming. Gambling problem? Call 1-800 gambler or visit RG-HELP.com.

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