The Ringer NFL Show - Three Numbers That Matter Going Into Week 18!

Episode Date: December 30, 2025

Sheil is joined by the Ringer’s own Austin Gayle to analyze some crucial individual player statistics that will be weighing heavily in the biggest Week 18 matchups. (00:00) Three numbers that matter going into Week 18(1:22) DK Metcalf's receiving yards vs. the rest of the Steelers offense(11:08) Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s target share vs the rest of the Seahawks offense(19:37) Baker Mayfield’s plummeting EPA numbers The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Host: Sheil KapadiaGuest: Austin GayleProducer: Chris SuttonSocial: Alysha TsujiProduction Supervision: Conor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopowell Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm your host, Shield Capadia. Today we are getting a head start on a massive week 18 in the NFL. We are looking at three numbers that matter for the three biggest matchups in week 18. Panthers box for the NFC South, Seahawks 49ers for the one seed and a Ravenstealers for the AFC North and a playoff spot. The three biggest matchups in the final week of the regular season. My guest today is the ringers. Austin Gale.

some nuggets and we'll talk about them. Let's take a break. Come back with Austin Gale. This episode of The Ringer NFL show is presented by State Farm. Having insurance isn't the same as having State Farm. It's like expecting the leadership of a team captain on the football field, but getting a sea captain? Sure, they're both captains, but who is going to run your offense? You wouldn't settle for just anything for your team, so don't settle for just any insurance. When it comes to getting the help, you need state farm is the real deal. Like a good neighbor, state farm is there. All right, we are back here on the Ringer NFL show with my friend, Austin Gale, who's bringing to the table three numbers that matter as we go into a big week 18 that

will shape some offseason narratives, get us ready for the playoffs, Austin. All right, what are we starting with? What do you got? I want to start with the Pittsburgh Steelers because I don't know if everyone is really taking in what they saw this week with D.K. Metcalf suspended Calvin Austin, also battling a hamstring injury. The receivers that they put out in this game were horrific. And the number I wanted to bring to you was the leading receiver, leading wide receiver on the Steelers this year is D.K. Metcalf with 850 yards. He's not going to play in week 18. He didn't play in week 17. He's suspended for punching that fan. The second leading receiver on this team, not tied end, not running back, is Calvin Austin, who didn't play in this last week's game

because of the hamstring injury, and you don't know if he's going to play in this upcoming game. The third leading receiver is a guy named Roman Wilson, a former third-round pick out of Michigan that Aaron Rogers hates. Even with all the injuries and D.K. Metcalf suspended. He only ran two routes in Week 17. The receivers that Aaron Rogers was throwing to last weekend, and we'll probably throw into in this win-or-go-home game in Week 18

on Sunday night football against the Ravens is Adam Thielen at 35 years old, Marquez Valdez Scantling at 31 years old, and then Scotty Miller, who Scotty Miller ran 30 routes in that week 17 loss to the Cleveland Browns. It's the first time he ran 30 routes in the game since November 2022. The passing weapons,

and then you factor in darno, Washington broke his arm in that game as well. Like the passing weapons available to Aaron Rodgers, who he is handpicked, by the way. You know he's played with Marcus Val de Scanling. He wanted Adam Thielen. The weapons that they have, I just think, are like, borderline not NFL-calibre players.

like NFL caliber weapons. And I think it's going to be ultimately what ends up kind of ending this Steelers seasons in a very awkward way where Tomlin still has the record. They go nine and eight, but they miss the playoffs. And I think it's just going to ultimately be a very sour taste in fans mouths, Steelers fans' mouths because I don't think anyone is satisfied with what Tomlin has done in the post-Rothlisberger era. And then with Aaron Rogers, yeah, there have been moments when he's woken up feeling good

after 40 years old. But this is a roster and an offense that he kind of handpicked and constructed. and you're kind of reaping what he's sewed down the stretch here. And ultimately, I think, was going to be a very disappointing end of the Steelers season. Do you know where Aaron Rogers ranks in dropback success rate now as we go into week 18? Give me a guess. 26th. And I know we've explained this before, but the success rate just means, was it a positive play or a negative play?

So if it's a 10-yard completion on 3rd and 9, that's treated the same as a 50-yard completion. It's a good thing to look at to kind of take out some of the noise. So Austin says 26th. He ranks 30th. Wow. Austin. He is ahead of two players who are both rookies, Cam Ward and Jackson Dart. So again, to explain this, the only pass plays that are less likely to produce a positive

result this year than an Aaron Rogers drop back or a Jackson Dart drop back and a Cam Ward drop back. Because I looked at that because it's been a very hard season to digest for Aaron Rogers because I'm with you. When D.K. Beck-Kheff was healthy here the last month, there were some games in there where I'm like, man, I think I was wrong. He looks pretty good. This passing game looks pretty good. Early in the season, it looked terrible. You and I talked about, they're throwing three-yard passes every snap.

But when you add it all up, it has not been a good. The passing game simply has not worked. And I think you're absolutely right. I mean, we could be going back and looking at this season going, that DK Metcalf altercation with the fan cost the Steelers a playoff spot. Because I don't even like this Ravens defense, but it's like I just look at it. And that was a lot of MVS. All those receivers you mentioned, I'm like, man, where was I?

When I first, when that person was first in the league, like, did I have kids? You know, I remember the MBS. Like, MVS is Ark in Green Bay where it's, oh, you can't trust him. But man, he's so fast. And Adam Thieling, it's like, man, him and Diggs in Minnesota, this is incredible. And who was the other guy you mentioned? Who was the third one? Oh, Scotty Miller.

Scottie Miller. He was like the hipster favorite with the bucks. Like, yo, you guys don't know about Scotty Miller. But man, with Tom Brady, this guy's, and these guys are all. playing for them in the year 2025. I have a hard time seeing how they're going to move the football in this game. Not even just like Marquez Valdez Scantling

was Rogers' go-to target down near the goal line to kind of try to win that game. Three in a row. Valde Scantling at his best was a field stretcher, right? Someone who could maybe take the top off the defense and it's like a 50-50 coin flipped if he catches the ball. Going to him in

fade situations where you're needing him to kind of make a contested catch does not make sense to me. And it's not What Arthur Smith is calling is the play caller. This is what Aaron Rogers wants. He wants to call the plays at the line of scrimmage. He wants to be in control. And ultimately, without D.K. Metcalfe, and you start to strip the weapons away,

Isaac Sumalo, their guard has also been hurt. Like, you start to strip this way, and all you have left is Rogers and his buddies. It looks like this. And it's been, you know, I mentioned 26, but it's felt like 30th in terms of success rate for Aaron Rogers. You look at statistically success rate, EPA per dropback. Pretty much any number. This is one of the worst, if not the worst statistical season for Aaron Rogers.

even worse than when he was playing for the Jets. And then when you look at for the Steelers, offensively, it's comparable to what they had when they had duck Hodges and Mason Rudolph throwing stuff around. And then defensively, which isn't the point of this stat, but I think it has to be brought up. This is the worst defense of the Mike Tomlin era by a considerable margin in terms of you look at success rate,

EPA per drive allowed, all these different metrics. I really do think even though he still has the record and they were able to pull out some games. And Aaron Rogers has flashed in milliseconds throughout the season. Again, I think, Steelers fans going back to what they were, you know, not cheering on the song that they love and wanting to fire Domlin. I really do think that like this is an exclamation point on what has been a very disappointing stretch for the for the latest kind of the what I call like the post

Rothesberger era for the Steelers. And let's be clear, it would shock nobody if the Steelers. The Ravens aren't good. Of course. It wouldn't shock me. I mean, the Ravens aren't good enough, but I'm not saying the Ravens are definitely going to win. These are both just two mediocre teams. We don't know if Lamar Jackson's going to play. John Harbaugh. was just like, we're day to day, to be determined. We'll see later in the week if Lamar Jackson actually plays in this football game. So we'll talk more about that side of it later in the week. But last thing I wanted to get to here, Austin, you sent me a link, which I didn't have a chance to check out.

But it was an Adam Schaefter report from awful announcing about these two head coaches. Because I had the idea to Billy yesterday, they should just say before the game, whoever loses has to resign this game. Now, I don't think they're going to do that. But what was Schaefter saying about potentially, the loser of this game, what might happen? I mean, I think he's just kind of throwing out that if they lose, there is, it is in the realm, quote unquote, realm of possibility that Tomlin steps away

and takes a TV gig. I think it could easily be just kind of leverage talk and Tomlin still wants to coach or whatever. And it's hard to imagine, again, after another winning season, even if they do loot this game, that like the Steelers do ultimately move on Tomlin, just because he's been there for so long. It's just like even hard to think about what the Steelers look like without Tomlin coaching. But you have to be at this point.

especially if they lose this game. And you can blame the DK-Mecalf suspension. You can blame a lot of things. If they lose this game, they miss out on the playoffs. What has to change for people to start to take the Pittsburgh Steelers seriously? This is the worst defense we've seen. T.J. Watt is on the other side of 30. That contract they just signed him to looks worse and worse every single day.

Offensively, are they going to bring Aaron Rogers back? He's up for contract as well. Do you bring him back and try this again with his buddies again? A new offensive play caller? Do you fire? I don't know what you can change, if not Tomlin, to try and reset the bill here, reset the market or reset the team and try and find just a new way of doing things. Because I think how they're approaching it currently is leading them to the same result over and over.

They win games they shouldn't. They lose games they shouldn't. And at the end of the day, they're one or two wins above 500. And then going into the playoffs, if they do make the playoffs, everyone's counting them out. That's not what teams want to rue for. Like someone on the Ringer Fantasy Football Show brought up that like Mike Tomlin's Jeff Fisher with an extra win over these last few years. That's kind of how it's felt, right? Like, Jeff Fisher was former Los Angeles, or no, Los Angeles, St. Louis Rams coach,

who always are in Titans 2, always went 8 and 8. And now Tomlin over these last few years, it's like he's kind of always going 9 and 8, 9 and 7 or whatever it is. And no one feels all that confident in them as a contender or a competitive team. Even when it was a few years ago, I think it was like the last Rothesburger year, they went on that big winning streak and a lot of people were excited about, like they were like 13-0 at one point. But you could tell, like they were a fraudulent team. The bones of that team weren't there and they ultimately ended up peering out in the playoffs.

I just think that Steelers fans expect more and they at the end of the day expect change and if that's not Tomlin who is it? What is it? Because something has to change. Yeah, you know, you mentioned that it's a great line, Jeff Fisher line, yet I still look at it and I'm like, he overachieved with this group. They're playing for the division.

He's been overachieving with this group since Rolfesberger retired. It's not very good. You need a new group. You need a new group. Yeah, that's, I mean, think about what we're talking about the D.K. Metcalf thing. It's like they lose a guy for two games and the offense can't score a touchdown against the Cleveland Browns.

I mean, the Browns have a good defense. But, yeah, that is kind of hard to stomach there what's going on in Pittsburgh. So it's going to be, man, there are going to be narratives that come out of the whichever team loses this game between Rogers and Tomlin and Lamar and Harbaugh. And we're going to talk about that later in the week. But I don't really, I don't think either of these teams are very good, but the game is very fascinating because of what's going to come out of it depending on the result there. All right. next one, Austin, what do you got? What's your second number for us?

I wanted to ask you if you feel like the Seattle Seahawks are over-reliant on Jackson Smith and Jigba for the passing offense. And I think I want to talk about the Seahawks coming into the week 18. It's one of the few games that matter. Seahawks and Niners battling for the one seed in the NFC. It's going to be a treat Saturday night. And I think it's easy to talk about the run game that I think has improved over the second half of the season.

They're kind of playing the hot hand between Zach Charbonnet and Kenne. Kenneth Walker, Kenneth Walker, going to be a free agent in the offseason. And then Darnold, obviously, still has that bozo in him, still can turn the ball over. He leads the league in turnovers. He has two more turnovers than Gino Smith. Gino Smith of the Las Vegas Raiders. He has two more turnovers than him. He can and always will be capable of losing games, especially in clutch situations.

You kind of felt that in that Rams game that they were able to come back with, the Zackwards pass and all that crazy stuff. But to throw, I don't want to talk about the Darnold element enough. I almost think it's played out. And the run game has been middling at best at points this season. Where I feel like there have been real problems from this year is when teams really key in on Jackson Smith, the Jigman, knowing that he's the bulk majority of the offense. The number I wanted to bring into this, he has a 36% team target chair. It's the second highest for any player in a full season behind Brandon Marshall when he had 40% of the team's target for the Bears in 2012.

That's the second highest of any player this century. Then you look at percentage of yards. 39% of the team's yards, highest of any player this season. 39% of the team's first downs, highest of any player this season. And at various points in the year, you've seen teams specifically key in on Jackson Smith of Jigua in the opening script. I think Seattle fans have been frustrated with Kubiak and Donald and the offense in the first halves of games when they've come in trying to funnel the ball to JSN and defenses have taken that away.

You saw that against the Arizona Cardinals in week four, zero catches in the first half. He was able to find it in the second half, plus the Cardinals defense sucks. Zero catches against Minnesota, another game this season. He only had two targets in the first half as well. And he ended up finishing that game, I think, with less than 40 yards. They blitz a ton. It was a little bit of a blueprint game to kind of slow down the offense and slow down Jackson Smith-Digba.

And you go back to that Rams game a couple weeks ago. He had zero catches in the first half of that game as well. And that's when the Rams were rolling. It wasn't until the Rams stopped throwing him extra attention, put him in more single coverage looks, specifically the one when he scores that touchdown that would have tied the game if they kicks the extra point. But it ends up being the game winner in overtime. Again, in single coverage, beats the corner.

Like Jackson Smith-Jigba needs. extra attention and defenses start to slow this. When he gets that extra attention, defense can slow this offense down. I think at the end of the day, I ultimately feel like in addition to the flaws in the run game, in addition to Sam Donald being able to turn the ball over at will, I do think that the offense has not been able to find another player outside of Jackson Smith, the Jigba that they can funnel the ball to and create explosives. And ultimately, the offense, I think, is going to either peter out because they can't run the ball, Donald throws these turnovers, or it's going to be a team that really locks in on Jackson Smith of Jigba and they have to go elsewhere.

So if I'm a Seahawks fan, I'm saying, all right, it's easier said than done. You named, you know, like one game this season where somebody was successfully took out Jackson Smith and Chigba. So, yeah, it is a great plan. I'm sure defense has come in and plan to take him away. But ultimately, they have found a lot of ways to get him to football. But you know what? The underlying thing of what you're saying, I do agree with, which is that I think there's a fragility. Did I use that right?

Fragility? Yeah. To the Seahawks offense where, you know, you looked at that last. drive against the Rams and it shaped the narrative. And I came on here and said, oh, you got to look at Donald differently. But then now that I zoom out a little bit, I still don't know that I fully trust this Seahawks offense specifically in the playoffs. I mean, they've had three straight performances here that have been below average.

And four of their last five games have been under the 50th percentile just in terms of EPA per drive here on the season. They're 16th in EPA per drive. Austin, I don't know that they get talked about that because early in the season, It was like, wow, incredible success story. This whole thing worked out for them offensively. And don't get me wrong, it has. They're competing for the number one seed here.

But it's still on the back of their defense. And statistically, it's still more of a mediocre to slightly above average group than it is a really good group. Like, they're not in a class of teams like the 49ers and the Rams offensively. They can produce explosives and they play unbelievable defense, which could lead them to the Super Bowl. But I do think we have to be honest about how this team is. made up and how they can win. And I think your point about JSN is a big one because they don't have the secondary pass catcher, the tertiary pass catcher.

I mean, Cooper Cobb, Rashid Shah, he had the concussion last week. And so you don't even know if you're getting him for this game against the 49ers, but he hasn't exactly lit the world on fire here as a receiver, even though he's contributed on a special team. So when you zoom out and keeping the JSN numbers, you just gave in mind, like, what is your trust level for the Seahawks team going up against the 49ers defense that is not? not good at all. Like, do you think, hey, this isn't something that's going to bite them this week, but maybe

in the playoffs? Or are you like, this could actually bite them this week? Because remember, they can go, they can finish anywhere from the one seed to, I think, the six seed, depending on how that game ends up. So this is just a massive swing. Where are you with your confidence in their offense overall? I think that I'll eat crow if the fragility of Darnold, the rushing attack, and the reliance on JSN does, doesn't, or, yeah,

doesn't show up in this Niners game because the Niners defense has been getable ever since that Fred Warner has been out. I think their bottom three by most metrics since he left in week six. They also have been without Nick Bosa, which a big part of their pass rush. That defense has really struggled. And Robert Sala has done a really good job, I think, developing a lot of young players in the secondary. And I think they're like punching above their weight in some degree. But ultimately, it's a very getable defense. You saw that against Chicago last night. The thing is, if we go into this game and it's a big game, right? We remember last year, week 18, Sam Darnold had a chance with Minnesota Vikings.

I forgot about that, Austin. He's in the same spot. He's in the same spot. He's literally in the same spot. He's in the same spot. Week 18, if he wins, he's the one seat. If he's not, he's going to be playing on the road for a lot of the playoffs. And we know how that panned out the following week with Sam Donald.

So this is a big spot, clutch spot for Sam Darnold. That always scares me regardless of the talent level of the defense. Then you factor in that I do think, and we had this on the ringers head coach candidates ranking, like the candidate rankings at Robert Saul and number one. I do think Robert Saul is a good coach. And I think he knows if there, in terms of like trusting the offense, sure, like, if there is an offense in this NFC playoff field that I feel like most confident, what I know I need to take away for them to be kind of shut down,

I do feel like with the Seahawks, you feel that way, right? So you know how to, you know what Sam Donald's limitations are and how to get him into bozo mode. You know that this offense flows through Jackson Smith to Jigba, and you know that they've struggled to run the football and create explosives with Kenneth Walker and Charbonate. So if Sala is able to kind of pull off and punch above his weight again and kind of slow this offense down. We know that the San Francisco 49ers offense is very good.

Now, the Seattle defense is good too, and it could be a matchup in that way. But if Darnold plays poorly, or they shut J.S.N. down in the first half, and they started to throw extra bodies his way, and then we kind of look at the Seahawks going into the playoffs on the road, and maybe Darnold doesn't win another playoff game again. I do think we're going to look back on this season, and it'll be easy, very easy to say, oh, man, Darnold blew it in the biggest spots again, blah, blah, blah, blah. But at the end of the day, you need

Darnold to stop turning the ball over, which I don't think we can do. He leads the league and turnovers. You need another pass catcher to develop into a weapon. So if JSN does get extra attention, you have other ways to move the football, and then you need this defense to go on a crazy run if the Seattle Seahawks are going to obviously go to the Super Bowl. Now, if they win this game, they get the buy, they're playing at home. I think a lot of that changes things. But this is a huge game. And I think a huge test to how we're going to talk about the Seahawks in the offseason, because ultimately this will determine the narrative. Yeah, it's I also love the idea. You mentioned Sala resume game here, you know? If he can just, if he can shut them down, take away JSN and they win

this game. Now it's like, hey, you know, I didn't have Bosa. I didn't have Warner, but look at what I did. You're playing with a ton of rookies, too. Like so many rookies on defense. Yeah. It's just, I mean, they don't have it. I mean, just their pass rush, that Bears game is shot. It's like, Caleb Williams is back there just chilling in the pocket for a long time. And so on the other hand, this is a, you know, if you're, if Clint Kubiak is like, hey, I'm a head coach and candidate. It's like, this should be a game where you should be able to light up this 49ers defense. Even if they are punching above their wait. They don't have the guys that should shut you down here. So that's going to be a

very, very fun matchup on Saturday night. All right, let's take a break. We come back one more number from Austin. All right, we're back here on the ringer NFL show. All right, Austin. What's the last one? What do you got? Okay. If you can remember the Buccaneers

beat up on the San Francisco 49ers in week six in Tampa Bay. You could hear chance from the stands. MVP. MVP. All for Baker Mayfield. Fred Warner left that game. Bucks were on a run. In weeks one through six, Baker Mayfield was in the MVP conversation. He ranked fourth and EPA per dropback. Since week seven, he ranks 28th. And now like there's a, I think immediately Bucks fans are going to say, oh my gosh, the

offensive line's been decimated by injuries. We've had receivers in and out of the lineup all year. Mike Evans has missed a ton of time. This can't all be on Baker. Baker's even been hurt. He had the shoulder injury, whatever. Still, I think that if Baker's playing hurt, that's a piece of this. Obviously, the offensive line injuries, obviously all that stuff. thinking about next year, right? Because even if the bucks go into this Panthers game and they win, I'm not thinking they're going to be from the four seed some deep playoff contender. I think there's question marks

with the defense. I think offensively, we know that they haven't been able to put things together really since week six. And Aik Buka's been healthy. Mike Evans is back. Ked Otton's still there. The offensive line is generally healthy. Obviously, they're missing some starters there, but still, this offense has completely fallen off a cliff. And I think a lot of fans

are asking a very fair question, win or lose of this game. Can you move forward with Todd Bowles as the head coach. Because Baker Mayfield, he's got two years remaining on that deal. You can't really cut him. You can't really trade him. And honestly, I don't think a lot of bucks fans feel like it's his fault. They feel like other players on the team have been hurt, Baker's been hurt, et cetera. But Todd Bowles, because they've kept him as the head coach, has let Dave Canales leave the building, who's now, I think, helping Bryce Young play a lot better than he's capable of keeping that offense alive.

The fact that they're even in a playoff race, I think is a huge testament to Dave Canales. And most recently, Liam Cohen left the building because they're keeping Todd Bowles. And now Liam Cohen is one of the best offensive play calls in the NFL. The Jackson and Trevor Lawrence are set up for the next five, ten years if they wanted to stay together. And now with Grisard, as their new O.C., the offense is taking the step back. Todd Bowles, I think people want him out of there. Do the Bucks, if they lose this game? Maybe if they win it, they can't fire Bowls, they make the playoffs, whatever. But like, if you're a Bucks fan, are you rooting for a new coach

and new play caller next year? Because I ultimately don't think they have the coach quarterback play caller combination to be a contender in the NFC. Now, maybe they can win a shitty division like the NFC South with the Panthers, Falcons, etc. Saints. But are they a deep postseason contender with Bowles? I just don't think, I'm going to argue no, because I don't know if he's going to be able to hit for a third time, a third offensive play caller that finally unlocks Baker Mayfield. And I ultimately think that he has also not this like man. He's like, I think taking on too much trying to be the defensive play caller and the head coach in Tampa Bay as well. I ultimately think that the box probably need to move on from Todd Bowles and try and figure out, okay, yes,

we're going to get Baker Mayfield another O.C. in his career. But I think that has to change ultimately because I don't think the talent level of this team is all that bad. Yeah, there's injuries been there. I think most of this is honestly on the play calling and how much that has regress from Cohen to Rezard. I mean, I could be honestly what you just laid out. I could say that's a feather in the cap for Todd Bulls that he goes out and hires Dave Canales. Because when you're a defensive-minded head coach, it's the biggest hire you make. And if you don't get it right, you're probably not going to be a good head coach. He does that with Canales. The offense looks pretty good. Canales gets a head coaching job.

Then he brings in Liam Cohen. Again, anybody could hired Liam Cohen to be their offensive coordinator. He did it. And now you have a top five offense with Baker Mayfield. And what a year for Liam Cohen. The bucks take a step back. Trevor Lawrence is playing the best he ever has. I mean, we don't have to look very far to say

he's doing a great job there. And so with Grisard, you could say, all right, well, did he miss it here? Or is this just a weird year where Baker Mayfield's playing with a shoulder injury? And Mike Evans was out and Godwin's returning from injury. And you mentioned the offensive line injuries where

would another team definitely have had this team playing a lot better than they're playing now? Or was this just a year where they were kind of destined for mediocrity? So I wouldn't, you know, I'm not like, oh, Todd Bowles is amazing. I actually think there's like a case of just being like, yeah, I don't know. What's he exactly bringing to the table here? If the defense is mediocre, the game management isn't very good. If he doesn't nail the staff hirings, then what do you really have? But I would probably say he's kind of earned more than just, you know, one sort of down year here

before you move off of him. So that's probably fair. Yeah. That's probably fair, especially with all the injuries. And I think that the, I guess where part of me is kind of bumping against them, obviously you've got to give him credit for hiring Canales and hiring Cohen. It really does feel like, though, right now with just where offenses are, that if you don't have an offensive play caller at head coach,

like I think people are going to be asking questions about Dan Campbell eventually. We've been asking questions about Mike Tomlin for years. And I think Bowles is kind of another piece of this. And now unless he can strike gold again and find a Canales or Cohen or whoever that may be and reset and refire the offense with Baker Mayfield, you know, slotted in as a starter for the next few years, I think that'll change. But there's also a world where, say, they run it back with Grisard again next year or he does make another hire and things don't pan out and things don't work the same way. And you're kind of sitting there saying like, damn, we let Canales and Cohen walk out the door.

Who guess what? As long as Cohen and Canalesis are having success, they're going to stay as Hegis. coaches and they're going to continue to be offensive play callers. It's just like cheat code to have a Shanahan, to have a McVeigh, to have a Cohen, to have a Ben Johnson, do have a Canales, Stiken, we can go keep going. Those are the coaches that are the tops and best in the league. If you don't have one of those guys, even if you have a Dan Campbell who's just amazing and everyone loves him, everyone loves to play for him.

He is battling every year to find the offensive play caller that can actually help the offense. And I don't know. I think with Tampa Bay, there's been enough there with bowls, I think, to where like you're starting to say, okay, you need to figure it out at offensive play caller again, or we're going to have to try and figure out how to find this cheat code ourselves? It's one of those things where not every team is built the same way, and you could say, well, the Eagles have been one of the best teams in the NFL, and they kind of haven't figured it out with offensive play caller. That's a

different model. The talent has just been exceptional there, and they made a great defensive coordinator hire with Vic Fangio. You could look at a team like the Bills and say they've been one of the best teams in the NFL. Sean McDermott's their head coach. They've cycled through offensive coordinators, but does it really matter when you have Josh Allen at quarterback? So I do think there's a lot of different things at play here. I do think the play callers get the most attention as the head coaches because they can really rate, they can do more with less where you say, man, they're doing this with Baker Mayfield. They're doing this with Daniel Jones.

And that's fair. And also, you don't have to keep looking. Like you can be like, this is the play caller. Every year this person's the head coach, we don't have to find another one. So I think for the defensive-minded head coaches, they got to build a pipeline. They have to be on it in terms of studying the trends around the NFL and other team staffs and college and everywhere and looking at, hey, if I were to lose this guy, always have a plan. Who's the next day I'm going to bring up? And I think Bols has done a exception, maybe the best job of doing that of any defensive coach here in the last few years.

But that doesn't mean you're going to nail it every time. And now in there in this situation, I'm not going to easily make the case that they're, Mayfield just kind of regressed to his career average. I was looking at some of the numbers earlier today. And it's like this year, you know, in terms of success rate is one of his worst. Other than that year, he split with the Panthers and the Rams. It's actually his worst year as a starter. But in terms of EPA, he's kind of on his career average, where last year was maybe

the outlier year where he had great play caller, great supporting cast, everything works. But that might not be who he's going to be. He might not have another year like that the rest of his career. if you have Baker and Bowles, like now it becomes like paramount that you find a Liam Cohen or whoever for this offense to kind of be top five and you're this deep postseason

contender and all those things. And that's with the fact that top, it's not like Denver, you know, the, the, the Buccaneers defenses have been like the best in the league these last few years either. It's not like Bowls is trotting out the best. Like it would be a lot different. It bowls was the defensive, you know, minded head coach and those defenses were like up there like where Denver is now or Houston is now

and with Demico Ryan's and where Seattle. is now with Mike McDonald, like the Bucks defense isn't there. The offense has regressed. He's going to need to find another play caller. Baker Mayfield's not getting any better. I don't know. I think ultimately they're kind of stuck now in purgatory. And if there was ever a window open with the Baker-Mayfield-led bucks,

like it's hard to imagine how open that really is unless they land another like Liam Cohen type and this offense all of a sudden looks top five again. Yeah, it's one of those where is it just a super? Are we just everything's focused on how do we get back to being a Super Bowl contender, or are we good being kind of a competitive team and buying some time and figuring it out, which might just be where they are with the franchise in the post Tom Brady era. All right, those were numbers that matter from the man, Austin Gale, going into week 18. Appreciate everyone listening. Thank you to Christopher Sutton for producing Alicia Suji on social.

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