The Ringer NFL Show - Time Capsule Takes for the 2024 Season

Episode Date: July 2, 2024

Nora, Steven, and Diante bring their hot takes about the 2024 season and put them in a time capsule.  Hosts: Nora Princiotti, Steven Ruiz, and Diante Lee Producer: Isaiah Blakely Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

If you're a fan of the inner workings of Hollywood, then check out my podcast, The Town, on the Ringer Podcast Network. My name's Matt Bellany. I'm founding partner at Puck and the writer of the What I'm Hearing newsletter. And with my show, The Town, I bring you the inside conversation about money and power in Hollywood. Every week, we've got three short episodes featuring real Hollywood insiders to tell you what people in town are actually talking about. We'll cover everything from why your favorite show was canceled overnight, which streamer is

on the brink of collapse, and which executive is on the hot seat. Disney, Netflix, who's up, down, and who will never eat lunch in this town again? Follow the town on Spotify or wherever you get your podcast. And welcome to The Ringer NFL show. I'm Nora Preciati and I am here with Deante Lee and Stephen Ruiz. It is July 1st. Deante, happy July. What an exciting time this is in the NFL calendar.

Really just like a lot to dig into juicy topics. I know you're just like feeling overwhelmed and swimming in all of the hot NFL news that we have at our disposal today. How's it going? That's good. I actually just got off the phone with my editor, Lindsay, and yeah, we were just throwing pitches left and right because there's just so many different ways to fill the content calendar in July.

It's spicy. There's a lot going on. Steven, how you feeling? I'm feeling good. You guys didn't catch up on the news that the dolphins are rethinking whether they should give to a tag of Ilova $60 million a year. That's big news. Summary is the time of reflection for us all.

That's right. Find yourself sitting in a lawn chair or on the beach or something, just looking out over some hopefully delightful scenery and just thinking, am I making the right choices in life? Is there anything that I need to pause and reflect on? So I support them in all of their endeavors and all of their rethinking. I'm interested to see if that one comes to any sort of conclusion. I would say July 1st, deadest part of the NFL calendar, we should be safe. We should be able to record a pod in peace.

Now that we've talked about this, now that you've brought. this up. Like by the end of today, there's going to be a, everybody get back on the mics, emergency pod. Let's go. Big breaking news. So thank you for, for totally jinxing us in that regard, Stephen. And I'm excited to see you guys back here at like 7 p.m. Eastern. Right. What we're actually going to do today. And we did feel that this was a good, good time in the calendar to get to some sort of fun episode formats. This is one that Stephen and I did, I think a little later in the summer last year, maybe a little bit closer to the start of the season.

I think we were, I think training camp was underway. But we're reheating it now, which is the time capsule take episode. We did this last year and we each put a few takes predictions, somewhat spicy predictions for the 2020s season in a little time capsule. And we revisited them a couple times. I believe producer Isaiah who's on the Zoom here has compiled the takes that we offered last year. I don't believe they went as well as we might have hoped.

Isaiah, do you want to give the listeners, Deonte, just anyone, a little bit of a refresher on what direction Stephen and I took this in last year before we do this year's version? Yeah, the energy was there. The correctness, maybe not quite. The energy is certainly there. Content happened on that episode. For sure.

So Stevens three takes were Trevor Lawrence would be a top five QB. The funniest part is actually the Calvin Ridley optimism in that takes actually the best part. But the second one was somebody other than Purdy will win a playoff game for the Niners and the Packers will win the NFC North. And then Norway's three takes were Justin Jefferson

2,000 yards, Sam Darnel will win a start for the Niners, and Brady will unretiretile. So we're both 0 for 3. Basically what you're saying. I have to say, Nora, you were on the right track because I believe Justin Jefferson was on pace for like 2,200 yards when he got hurt. And Sam Darnold almost did start a game.

There was like a three-day stretch in like November or December where it looked like Sam Darnold was going to get to start for the 49ers. And then Purdy came back. It didn't happen. We never heard about it again. So I would say you won that round, even though we both went 0 for 3. But I would also say that the Packers take. had a had an energy that felt fulfilled, even if it was not technically fulfilled.

I will say this. It was based around Jordan Love Optimism, and I'm feeling good about that. I'm tired of myself on the back for being a Jordan Love Optimist last summer. Right. Deonti, do you want to make us feel better about any of our takes, none of which actually came true? I do like Stevens Brock Pretty take because that's like a great way to prime further takes down the year. It's just like, this team will win playoff teams and we'll be just, playoff games would be just fine. this quarterback. So I see exactly what Stephen was doing with that. I love that move,

that angle for you. And for you, Nora, I would say I would roll with the Tom Brady unretiring thing for like at least the next three to four years. Yeah. I feel like that's, that one. I mean, again, like this is three dimensional podcasting. You got to, you got to be prepping for later episodes, for later, just like get that recurring content machine going. So I hope they're revisiting those has accomplished two things. I hope it's made the spirit of this exercise clear. And I also hope Deonte that you feel that we have now established an incredibly low bar. And with that, we're each, we've each brought three. Same thing. Something we're predicting for the 2024 season. Honest prediction. Like, at least that's how I approach this. A thing that I really do

think is conceivable. But, you know, we're not going for the straight down the middle stuff here necessarily tried to make it a little bit spicy at least for some of them. So Stephen, you want to give us your first and kick it off? Now I'm a little like, I don't know. I don't know which take I should go with after that intro because now I want to go for my most realistic take. And my first one that I was going to say is not really realistic. And I don't even know if I believe it myself, but I'll go with it anyway. Aaron Rogers wins MVP this year. Just win the division. Aaron Rogers wins MVP. He goes on Pat McAfee and says a bunch of insane things. But I, I bet on it right now. On Fandle, it's plus 2,500 odds, lower odds than Justin Herbert and Jalen

Hurts. Two quarterbacks that I think he's going to have a better year than two teams that I think are going to have fewer wins than the Jets have this year. And then let me make this pitch. The Jets have to win the division for this to happen. I think that's very possible. As long as Aaron Rogers has a nice touchdown to interception ratio, which we know he likes to maintain. That guy will not throw an interception if he doesn't have to. I think it's a narrative award and he fits right into that narrative. You can make the case with his traditional stat line if he does put up a good TD to interception ratio. And then if they win 11 games and they've been doubted all year, he can make that claim on Pat McAfee all he wants. I think he's going to get a lot of votes.

I don't think people are going to push back against him because of the off-field stuff. I know that was a talking point heading into the COVID year where I think he even said it himself that people aren't going to vote for him because of all. all the off-field stuff. But I think there's been enough time where the narrative has kind of flipped and now Aaron Rogers is kind of viewed as an underdog. And I think the Jets are certainly viewed as underdogs.

So if they win 10 or 11 games, he's going to be in the discussion. And as long as he's in the discussion, I think there's a chance he wins. I mean, the thing in this that speaks to me is I do feel that people are underestimating the Jets. I think that the chaos has masked a little bit of the fact that as, you know,

as long as he's he's healthy and as long as he's sort of resembling the quarterback that he has been the last few years that he's played, which has not been the best that Aaron Rogers has ever been on a football field as a quarterback. But like as long as those things happen, which aren't that crazy long shots, they should be a pretty good team. And it's going to feel incongruent because the last umpteen things that we've talked about vis-a-vis the Jets have been like, no one's on the same page. There's all this wacky stuff. what's Rogers doing? Where is he? What are they saying? Chaos, chaos drama.

And then the games are going to start. And it's just going to be like, yeah, this is a better roster and better quarterback play than they've had in a while. This is the stat line I'm thinking of. This is all I need from Aaron Rogers. 3,800 yards, maybe a little bit over that, maybe 500 more than that. 30 touchdowns, five interceptions. It's his award to win if that happens.

And I think he can hit those benchmarks. I'm not saying he's going to have like. And it's a very Aaron Rogers stat line. Exactly. I'm not saying he's going to. that be like top five EPA because I think Aaron Rogers does his traditional stat line often looks better than his advanced stat line because he is a guy that cares about that touchdown and interception ratio more than other quarterbacks almost to a fault where he'll throw the ball away

rather than put it into harm's way. So I think he'll have that. And as long as you can get those traditional voters, the people that are voting for this award who aren't necessarily looking at EPA and may not be looking at his role in the offense and how it compares to what Patrick Mahomes does for his offense, I think he has a very good chance to win it. And then, Plus he has maybe the best receiving core. He's had since, I'd say like 2015, when the Packers were at their height with Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings and all those guys. Deont, what do you think about Rogers?

I don't hate that. I think that he'll definitely be in position to win the MVP if he's healthy. You know, I think I've done the top 10 defense show earlier and picked the Jets to have the top defense in the NFL when I was on with Steven. So, you know, I have high expectations for that team. I think the AFC East is probably about as winnable for New York as it'll be. while Rogers is there. All the pieces are there.

You have Mike Williams, who if he's healthy, makes for a good mismatch, you know, in the red zone. We know he likes to attack mismatches and he does that really well. Garrett Wilson should have a breakout year

if Aaron Rogers is healthy. I think a lot of the pieces are there and it makes a lot of sense. I'm just not going to champion this take too much because it kind of runs, it kind of runs contrary to one of the takes that I have later. And then I do have some real concerns

about this offensive line. Like when you look at them and consider health for Morgan Moses, is for Elijah Barrett Tucker, you know, for Tyron Smith, like there's a lot of age that they're going to be leaning on staying healthy and keeping Aaron Rogers upright. And I'm just not sure if I'm really ready to go all in with the offensive line and the tight-in room and what they have, you know,

to try to keep that running game and pass protection as healthy as possible. DeAndi said he doesn't hate this pick, but I hate this pick. And it was my picture. Aaron Rogers wins this award. I'm just going to say it again. I'm going to do the Brock Purdy thing. I'll cover a different league. I got to say.

Look, Aaron Rogers has a lot of viewpoints that I don't agree with. The press conference would be unbelievable. It would be unbelievable. MVP Rogers in an election year? Oh, man. Wait, wait. It wouldn't be a press conference. They have NFL honors now.

This guy would get to come on stage in a tuxedo and make his speech live in front of like hundreds of people. I mean, in a tuxedo or like in a WWE get up. Like, who knows where this way? It would just be the energy around that. Like, I, I, I, I. I think we all must admit that it would be sort of electric in a strange and horrifying sense. Especially months after the election, like RFK Jr., he's not going to do well.

He's going to be salty. He's going to be taken out on the media on all of us. It would be fun to watch. It would be content. It would be a lot like our take capsule episode last year. Nothing good is happening, but there is content. It would be a hit to the woke mind virus. That's for sure.

Deonti, you said that this run sort of counter to one of your take. So do you want to give us that one next? Yeah, that was actually the one I was going to start off with because it's probably my hottest. And I would say like all the one year window teams, and I have like eight that I think meet this qualification, I say all those one year windows teams that none of those are represented in their respective conference title games. So that's the Jets, the Lions, I would say after paying golf, I think that they're kind of all in for competing now as quickly as possible. The Eagles are obvious one. The Cowboys are an obvious one. I've talked about the 49ers kind of being a one-year window team.

And then I threw in the Browns, the Dolphins, and the Bengals as well. So, like, these are all teams who have coaches on the hot seat, just paid the quarterback, or have contracts upcoming that are going to change the roster building context and kind of need to win right right now. I don't have any of those eight teams representing their conference in the conference title game come January. Damn. Okay, so the Jets, the Browns, the Dolphins, the Bengals, the Cowboys. You said the Eagles?

Eagles and the Niners. The 49ers, Jets. Yep. whoa. Yeah. That take got hotter as you listened off those teams. It was like the flames were just like building up and then eventually we were all engulfed. I mean, what does that playoff field even look like?

Because that's, you're sort of running out of, I mean, congratulations to like the Colts. Exactly. Yeah, I think the Packers are really well positioned to make a run. I think if Anthony Richardson is healthy, I think the Colts are positioned really well. I'm very high on the Texans coming into this year. I think this is going to be a year for teams that are kind of on the younger side, on the earlier side of their contention window, making a leap and being part of, you know, that final four going into conference championship weekend.

So who are the teams that you would say, like, are immune to that? Obviously, the chiefs are at the top of that list and are going to be on that list for the next time years. They're really healthy. I said the Texans. I said the Packers. I'm really, I have a feeling that the Bears will be ahead of schedule this year and they'll be able to compete as a wildcard team. I think that they have a chance to maybe surprise some teams. teams if they make the postseason, if things go as well as I think they can.

I think it's probably more interesting in the AFC, right? Because that leaves like you have to have conversations about the dolphins and how much of a contender there are and how you feel about them. I think the Browns are in an interesting position because there'll obviously be a playoff team. I'm just not certain if I'm willing to bank on Deshaun Watson for as well as he looked down like the last, that final stretch of the year before he got hurt again. I'm still not all the way there with that, with that offense.

that they're changing the offensive context. You know, Stephen and I talked about Jim Schwartz and that defense being a little bit more vulnerable in a playoff context. So, yeah, I think it does leave like a small handful of teams that will make the conference title game, in my opinion. But I think we'll probably look up and see Baltimore again. We'll probably see Kansas City again vying for it

and we'll get some new faces on the NFC side. Who is this of those teams? Who is this the most devastating for? Who do you think if their one-year window falls flat is going to be in the biggest? vortex of pain. The easy call is Dallas because there's just so much that has to get turned over with that roster almost no matter what they pay DAC.

They're going to have to make roster changes, you know, for the new contract figure. If you let DAC walk, you are now talking about pushing a hard reset button with the head coach, with the quarterback. We don't know what that means for the Jones family and how they want to build. You know, if they're interested in building a contender going forward or if they're going to take more of that long rebuild road. I'm really fascinated to see what it would be like for them. And then I think with the Jets, with the Jets is devastating because you push all your chips

in to try to contend while Aaron Rogers is there. And now you're kind of a franchise that's just adrift as some of the other teams in the conference are trying to build to contend for a longer window than you are. So those are probably the two things that the two teams I see is most vulnerable if things go sideways. On the Cowboys front, did anybody think about anything involving? either from the Dallas side of things or like I thought about a Bill Belichick take here that I ended up not going with but did anybody go in that direction or think about it?

I have a coach for them. That's part of my take. I have a coach for them that I'll get to later. It's kind of interesting because like the Cowboys, the Cowboys are not a boring team by any means. But I feel like they've kind of been in this rut where this season seems kind of boring even though there are these stakes where like, you know, Dak could leave, Mike McCarthy can leave. But like we kind of know what to expect from them. I don't think there's like a wide range of outcomes. And what Deontes is predicting here, it falls in that range of outcomes where they make the playoffs, but they lose to the first good team that they play in the playoffs.

That's just how the team has been for the last two decades where it's got to a point where it's not interested anymore. Like, oh, Jerry Jones might fire the coach. He doesn't even fire coaches anymore. He's not even like that guy, the short-tempered coach anymore. Well, he's never been short-tempered with his coaches. That's a good point. He's always been he'll do eight press conferences a year where he talks at length about maybe firing someone and being disappointed with the results. But historically, working for Jerry Jones when he's hired you and he feels like he's made an investment in you and that your reputation is tied to his.

That's a great gig. That's a really stable gig. Yeah, it is now, at least. Like in the 90s, he fired Jimmy Johnson because they couldn't agree after he won two straight Super Bowls. He fires Barry Switzer after they went to Super Bowl. It was like in the 90s, I guess he had a higher standard, but you're right for the. past 25 years, maybe even 30 years, the guys just let coaches just be terrible for years on head and not replace them at all. Like Jason Garrett's got to hang around for a while. Mike McCarthy is getting time. So maybe you're right. Maybe like a bad season isn't catastrophe

at all. Maybe they just continue going forward because that's what they've been doing for the last decade. I mean, I don't want to contradict myself because it does seem like what's, it does seem like this season is about okay, any number of owners would have made a, would have made a, would have made a move already by now. And this is maybe the one that McCarthy got an extra go of it because of Jones's tendencies with coaches. But this is the one where it's going to be sort of do or die particularly with the Belichick element, particularly with what it means with the timeline that they're on with contracts,

with their star players. But to your point, it feels a little like unless something really dramatic happens, those are going to be offseason. things. Right. And it probably does in the meantime just add up to another year of like, yeah, the cowboys are pretty good and they probably can't get it done. And we'll see what Jerry Jones or the hologram of Jerry Jones that lives at the star wants to do about that. But we'll probably see it in March and April and not in November and December and January. I've got one that I think builds off of the original take from Deonté here, which was that I have that the bears are going to make the playoffs.

And I think to the extent that there's something spicy going on here, it's that I think the NFC North is going to be a decent division. You know, the Packers are on the rise. The lines are tough out. The Vikings might end up taking a step back this year. I think they will. But still, there's going to be some tough division games for Chicago. But first of all, the schedule otherwise is pretty soft. they've got the AFC South.

They also have on the early side of the season, they've got the Patriots and the commanders who are probably going to be playing who at least could be playing rookie quarterbacks or just I don't expect to be super tough opponents. And I think it gets a little bit forgotten that this team, you know, they won seven games last year.

They weren't as terrible as the teams that you expect to be picking first in the draft. And that was because they'd traded for that pick. So you get a full season of that defense that really hit its stride after the Montes sweat trade, which was a trade that I did not like at the time, but it was definitely proven wrong about. And then combine that with an offense that I'm just really, really interested in and think that, you know, maybe it doesn't happen immediately, but I'm really interested in what

Shane Waldron can do for Caleb Williams. I think it's pretty realistic, as Deonte said, that this team could end up feeling like they're ahead of schedule and could be sniffing around a 10-win season or so. And that should be good enough at minimum, particularly in a world where all of these sort of one-season window teams, you know, maybe some of them make the playoffs and then fall flat, but aren't particularly strong. I think that opens a pretty clear door for the bears, at least to be going for a wild card spot and to really get off to a good start of things in the in the Caleb Williams era. So that's my first is that we're going to see the bears in the playoffs this year.

I mean, I like it. I think the main concern with the bears, like just looking at them from 30,000 foot view, is the potential mistakes by the offense. And it was the same problem as last year. The same reason they didn't win nine to ten games last year is because they made mistakes in the fourth quarter, especially at the quarterback position with Justin Fields. But I do think Shane Waldron, I think one thing he showed last year in particular, was his ability to work around potentially catastrophic issues. Like that Seattle offensive line became a real issue, especially in the dropback passing game towards the end of the year.

When you look at the EPA standings at the end of the year, they were top ten offense despite that. Like you wouldn't think about that, thinking about how we talked about Seattle's offense throughout the year, whether it was Gino Smith's supposed regression or the injuries to the offense or the offensive line falling apart or their lack of a running game or whatever Pete Carroll was up to. They still finish in the top 10 in offense. And I would argue that this Chicago team, especially if Caleb is just okay for a rookie, has better pieces than that Seattle offense at last year. If this is anywhere close to a top 10 offense, nor they're not just making the playoffs.

They might win like 12 games if they're a top 10 offense next year. So I'd like this take. And I could see it happening whether Caleb Williams has a superstar with a year like C.J. Stroud had last year or just like a middle of the road one. I'm with you, Stephen. That's kind of where my head is at as well as like if the offensive line stays upright, if Baxter Jones is good, if Darnell Wright continues to get better. And they actually are able to give Caleb enough time to push the ball downfield in the way the Shane Waldron was able to do with Gino two years ago. When their young offensive tackles look good, then there is an opportunity that this is an even better year.

maybe than just being a playoff team. And they might be one of the top teams in the NFC. They might be able to contend to win the NFC North and play a home playoff game, which would obviously be way ahead of, you know, I think more realistic expectations or median outcomes. But I do see a lot of the pieces there when you look at the offense. And then obviously, you know, as we've, I think everybody's notice, after the trade deadline of bringing in Montes sweat,

what that did to kind of balance out their defensive roster and their pass rush. I think there's some real potential here for them to be as tough and out as anybody in the NFC. On the offensive side, the aggressiveness dimension is what I'm really interested in. Because a question that I don't really know the answer to is like, okay, if Waldron is scheming his way around making sure that the offensive line at least, you know, has a fighting chance can can give him some time, keep him pretty clean. and Caleb is for the most part looking good, but he's still a rookie. He's on a learning curve and he's also someone who takes some chances. What's like what is the push and pull between letting him go out there and make mistakes,

letting him learn, also letting him do what he's great at, but also, you know, when do the mistakes pile up in a way that they think is unacceptable? Is it a 20 interception season where they're like, well, we can't possibly live with this? Is it less than that? is like where where on that scale does the offensive coaching staff look at their rookie quarterback and their hopeful future franchise quarterback and say we need to rein him in like this is not worth it or viable in the meantime and I think that that dimension is one of the things that sort of up in the ear to me that I'm curious to see um but I think like the what's built into

the take is that I think they can think they can withstand a fair bit of that, particularly if the good parts of that aggression are also present. So I think more like, you know, 10-ish games, maybe 11 wins, which would be, I think, a really exciting season for the, I mean, for, you know, it would be like one of the best, one of the handful of best bears seasons this century. it would still be pretty rare to see a rookie quarterback come in and win 10 games or so in that first season.

But I do think that they could do it. All right, Deontay, should we go back to you? Sure. Let's go back to me. So next take for me, and this is probably the one I feel most confident in, is that Houston is the top team in the AFC wire to wire this year. Ooh. So obviously that predicts another strong year from CJ Stroud, if not a leap forward. that predicts, you know, a big year from Will Anderson that says that Kamari Lassiter

hits is their nickel. Derek Stingley stays healthy, continues to produce on the ball, some of the additions they made on just along the defensive front, DeNico Autry, DeNehle Hunter, that all those guys are able to produce a defense that fits what DiMico Ryans is really after. And then you look at the schedule, and I think that, I think there's reason to be optimistic. The toughest stretch for them is three games and 10 days around the Christmas time. I have Miami, they have Baltimore, they have Kansas City in some sequence between the 15th and the 25th. That's probably as tough as it gets for them schedule-wise.

And I think if they can survive that healthily, it's less about, you know, wins and losses if they're able to stay competitive and they get out of that healthy. If you look at the rest of the schedule, the fact that I think they're probably further ahead than the other AFC South teams, there's a good chance that we can look up in there, you know, a 12 and 5, 13 and 14 and maybe the top team in the AFC. if they're as good, I think, as everybody would like to look at them optimistically in terms of quarterback, offensive coordinator, and then obviously having the defensive infrastructure there under head coach, D'Amico Ryans. So that's probably the one for as hot as it is, I feel really comfortable with. So just to be crystal clear, what this means is that from week one until the playoffs begin, the Texans have the best record in the AFC, they are the number one seat in the AFC.

That would be true if the playoffs began at any juncture throughout the next year. entire season. That's right. And that we're talking about them, not as a team that just got scheduled luck or like the Eagles a couple of years ago that got like great pass for like outside of what's the realm of possibility would be in pass rush production. They were just saying every time we look at them on Sunday, that's the best team of football, wire to wire week one through week 18. That's kind of how I'm feeling. That's the take I'm going to put in the time capsule at least. I almost made one of my predictions the chiefs are going to win 16 games. So I obviously disagree with it. But I just looked at the chief schedule and like I'm starting to like this take a little

bit more. I don't know if I'm going to believe that the Texans are the best team. I almost made my take that the chiefs are going to win 16 games. Also, I just looked at the chief's schedule. That's a lot about the state of Kansas City football these states. See, I see, I come up with the take and then come up with the research to justify the takes after. You see, I work back. That's a real podcaster right there. That's a, that's a podcaster. That's an MVP move right there. But looking at their schedule, like I see why Deiote would be confident that he, so would not only get out to a lead in the standings, but maintain that lead. They get Baltimore the first week, which we know in the opener on Thursday.

They play Cincinnati right after that. And then they go take a trip to Atlanta, which I think is going to be a decent team, especially at that point before Kirk might get hurt or his game might fall off. And then, like, this division is tough. The Charters could be a better team than we expect. I think the Raiders could be a better team than we expect. I don't think the Broncos are going to be a better team than we expect, which is a preview for my last prediction.

But this schedule is tough. They go to Buffalo. they go to San Francisco, they play Houston later in the year. I can see this happening. I got to go to Cleveland late in the year. They have to go to Cleveland late in the year, mid-December. Mid-Dcember. Late in the year.

Yeah, it's going to be a tough schedule for them. But I do like this Chief's roster and how it's been constructed, how it's been supplemented over the off-season. I think Patrick Mahomes might take another leap forward, like he does seemingly every season. And then I still have faith in Spags. I know they've lost some pieces. I know they lose Ligeria Sneed,

but I think they have enough pieces on that defensive of that defensive front seven to keep them in like the top five, top ten. So I'm still rolling with the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes, but I can't see there being a debate in like October and November about who the best team in the UFC is. And you think if that debate happens, it's between Kansas City and Houston. I mean, it has to be Houston. Either Kansas City is running away with this or Houston takes a leap forward and is like

right there step for step with them. All the other teams, I do feel like have taken a step back, aside from Cincinnati, which has a long ways to go after the disappointment last year. with Joe Burr's injury. And then obviously there's questions of marks about T. Higgins. Yeah, that's my thing with like judging Baltimore, Cincinnati, the AFC North teams, they all have to play each other. That kind of, I think that helps my take a little bit.

Kansas City was the only other team I thought about. And then when I looked at their schedule, like Stephen said, it's a lot of tough road games. They got to see good teams early in the year too. It's not the most, it's not the easiest or friendliest schedule for them, even if Patrick Mahomes is healthy all the way throughout. And they continue to build. some of the young guys that they've brought in through the drafts the last couple of years.

Look at, like Deonté, already looking at the schedule before the podcast records. So if that take is a referendum on anybody, it's, it's, you know, it's Kansas City, which I think you just talked about the schedule, just being a tough road. And obviously, that's not to say that the chiefs aren't going to be a really good team. I think we all, I think we've all been through enough and learned enough over the last few seasons that no one's counting them out, but point taken on the schedule. The other team that that feels like.

like a little bit of a referendum on is Baltimore. Baltimore. Yeah. Should I, am I right to read that into that take it all? Or is it, you mentioned the fact that, you know,

that division is just, you get kind of beat up having to play those, those games. It's that division. And I think they also have like a three, a three game and 10 day stretch as well. I think that theirs is around that same time of year. So it really could have gone in either direction.

Kind of depends, I think, on just how you feel about where the rosters are at, where the coaching staffs are. at. I just really like where Houston's positioned right now, having a young quarterback, obviously playing that Shanahan style of football on the offensive end. I think that there's a lot of reason to be optimistic about what Houston can do with that offense. I still, I know that it was better last year. I still need to see Baltimore's receivers core do something to elevate Lamar

before I really feel confident that that offense is going to sustain the growth that it had last season in the passing game. And I would say when you saw these two teams play last year, year, and they played twice. They played in the playoffs and they played in week one. The biggest mismatch was Mike McDonald versus Bobby Sloick. And Mike McDonald is gone. And Bobby Sloak has another year of progression of his first year as a play caller. So you would expect that gap to maybe not only close, but maybe Houston might have an advantage there now. And then I would say that Houston just had more room to grow during the off season. So it makes more sense that they would make more progress. And it's just going to be hard for Baltimore because

it's always a question mark about if Lamar is going to stay healthy. And there's no way to predict that. And we've seen that he is a player with a play style that does lead to injury. At least it has the last couple of years. So, well, not last year, but two years before that. So I think that's a question mark hanging over their head that you don't necessarily have to deal with in Houston. I have a Raven's take.

Can I jump in and add it to this discussion? Go for it. So my take is that Derek Henry is going to have the second best season of his career, which means that I was not willing to, you know, he ran for 2,000 yards in 2020 and I did not want to go quite so far out on this limb to suggest that he would eclipse that. But his second best season in terms of rushing yards was 1,540 in 2019. And you guys just all pointed out a bunch of, a bunch of kind of small, question marks in Baltimore. Can Lamar stay healthy?

Can this receiving core actually elevate in the second year of this, second full year of this new offense? Is Mike McDonald's departure going to influence the defense? All of these things. The thing that, and one of the, I would not call it an irony because I think a lot of smart analysts, Stephen Ruiz, certainly among them, have been pointing out for years that if you have Lamar Jackson on your football team, your running game is always going to be fine.

And committing a lot of resources to that is sometimes is putting a hat on a hat. But I think this team, what they have is they've realized that with Todd Monkin, And they've, they've relied a little bit more on the passing game. They've reaped all the benefits of that. But then they go and add Derek Henry to the mix. This is in spite of all the changes they made last season, they still led the league in rushing yards per game as a team. They were third in yards per carry, which was 4.9. And I look at this move as this sort of like tacit acknowledgement of, oh, we're still really good at this.

So like this can't hurt. And if part of this new offensive strategy involves reducing the number of hits that Lamar is going to take, I think you put Derek Henry in there and there's an idea of, okay, we can do some volume this way. We can have, we can reap the benefits of that really physical style of rushing game, but we can have someone else doing it. We can protect the quarterback. We can let Lamar continue to do what he has done even as a runner, which is doing more running to pass than then running. running just to run.

And I just think there's a world in which they're working through all of these little things as a team and figuring out what they're great at and a bread and butter that they are always going to have and that they've found kind of an equilibrium with in this new offense is like, heck yeah, we can have the best Russian game in the year, basically any year. But we've added this guy to it. And they spent a lot of money on him, which tells me that they're serious. So I would add also like Henry one thing he does bring up even at this point in this period is explosive runs.

And that's one thing they've always relied on Lamar Jackson to do. And I think it does signal something in their offense and like a shift in their offense where and if you can read the tea leaves and what they're talking about during the Austin, you can look at Lamar's own weight loss and how he's kind of explained the thinking behind that. I think they are shifting the focus of the run game from being Lamar centric to being running back centric. And then just relying on Lamar's.

legs in the passing game as a source of explosive plays on scrambles. Like if you hear Todd Munkin talk, he's always talking about spacing out the field, because when you have a mobile quarterback and you space out the field, those guys become a lot more dangerous, especially when they scramble out of the pocket. So I think that's what you're going to see more. I think Lamar's rushing attempts aren't going to budge too much, but I think you're going to see more scrambles rather than design runs. Those design runs are going to go to Derek Henry, who still at this age,

was still running like 20 miles per hour in week 18 last. still running like 20 miles per hour in week 18 last season, who, you know, I think still looks really good. If you want to start looking for the signs of age drop off, he is 30, which is a scary number for a lot of football players, but it's a scary number for running back. He did have a career low yards after contact last season. It wasn't dramatically worse, but it was it was the worst of his career.

That said, because everything gets so spread out. he's going to have great yards before contact. And I don't know how much that's going to be like a death knell to his ability to be explosive, his ability to really, really influence this offense. He was also running behind arguably the worst offensive line of football last year. Yes. So, you know, there is a part of that that, you know, is supporting cast. I think that'll be changed.

Obviously, having the threat of Lamar as a runner having a running back rotation behind him that I think will kind of balance things out. I think there's a lot of reasons to think that he will be available late enough in the year to still be productive to make this take cash in. And then the thing I wanted to look at, if there was going to be something to refute on this take, it would be Derek Henry and the shotgun. And I think if you looked at almost any other year in his career and you wanted to make the argument to like, hey, Derek Henry is more of an under center runner. Obviously, some of the best runs that you get with Lamar Jackson will be out of the gun, out of pistol. I think that there would have been a basis to stand on. if you look at last year his runs from the shotgun, it's the most by volume that he's had in his career.

And if you look at like his jars before contact per rush, his jars after contact per rush, like he was as productive as he's ever been in his career running out of the gun. So that's interesting. There's reason to think if the offensive line is healthy, if they have just enough of an element of the threat of Lamar Jackson as a runner to be able to use, you know, some read option game with Derek Kennedy,

where he can be the downhill piece. I think that there's something to look at and say like, If he's healthy, if he's still the player, we think he is, if he still has enough of a fifth year to be able to get away from guys, not only can he be a bruising, punishing runner, that guy can be the feature back still for this offense. And I do think that for this team to continue as a contender, they need Derek Henry to be that guy. So there's not as much pressure on Lamar to get them out of trouble on early downs.

Funny enough, I asked Willie Taggart about, I went to Ravens practice a couple weeks ago, and I asked about the shotgun understern thing because that's been a big split throughout his career. He likes to run from undersetorner. it's kind of like an Adrian Peterson thing. And Tiger admitted, like, he had the same concern, but then he watched the film and then he's seen him on the practice field doing the shock and stuff.

He's like, this guy's just a freak. He's an athletic freak and nothing applies to him. Like, he's going to be good at anything you put him in. And then just one more thing to add. I know he'd been talking about this for like five minutes now. But the, like, standard plan against Lamar Jackson, going back to his first playoff game against the Chargers has been to put more defensive backs on the field,

to have more speed on the field to kind of corral him. Now ask those defensive backs to now tackle a 230 pound or 250 pound beast in the open field. And that's going to be a problem. So I think it kind of prevents teams from loading up on speed on defense and then also adds this element of an explosive run game that up until this point, they've had to rely on the quarterback for it. Love it. You guys are making me feel great about this. I mean, it's a big number, right?

like over 1,540 and 1. It's all he needs to do. Still a big number. So we'll see. But I'm feeling good about it. I'm feeling bullish about Derek Henry on the Ravens. And it does feel like the type of thing where if they're sort of, they're working through it a little bit in terms of the coordination,

the defense, all these other things. What's the state of the receiving core? Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. I just feel like there's going to be a moment of like you look around at the 31 other teams it go, you guys let Derek Henry go to the rapids? Like, that was weird. That was a weird choice. So that's where I'm.

That's my second. Steven, you want to give us your second? Yeah, mine now. I'm not even like excited to give this one out. The Saints win the NFC South. Who cares? Like, it's the NFC South. No one cares.

But like, I guess it is a hot take because everyone expects the Falcons just to run away. No, I think that is a hot take. Is it? I didn't realize it for me. lay this out for me. All right, let me lay it out for you. First of all, they've had a top 10 defense by EPA every year for the last five years. They've been in the top seven for four of those five years.

So, like, Dennis Allen, can we give this guy his flowers as an innovative defensive mind, like one of the best defensive coaches of not only like the current NFL, but the past, I'd say like 10 to 20 years almost. I'll start with that. And then the other part is I'm going to have to give credit to Derek Carr, which is something that I don't like to do. I like to rail against Derek Carr. I hate the way he plays football.

I hate this approach to the game. But I think that all this negative talk about Derek Card, how much money he makes, and how he never wants to make a play and how he throws away the ball on fourth down and checks it down in Hill Mary situations, has covered up the fact that he's... You know you're talking about yourself, right?

I was going to say... You were inspiring tons of confidence in this day. But we've almost overcorrected to the point where Derek Card gets talked about like he's like a terrible quarterback. He's a decent quarterback. He's like in that purdy range, that golf rings,

is that 10 to 15, what are the 10 to 15 best quarterbacks in the NFL? And on his best days, he looks like a top five quarterback because he has that type of physical talent. The most frustrating thing about him is that he doesn't use it. Now, here's why. Is this a cry for help? Is this one of those, like, tweet the thing that you would tweet if you got kidnapped so that people would know that you've been kidnapped?

It would be a good example of that because I've never said anything nice about Derek Garth throughout my entire career covering this league. But I'm going to say it now. He has a strong arm. He doesn't always use it. He has decent athleticism. He's afraid of pressure in the pocket, but I do think he knows how to navigate the pressure. And then I will say this.

Towards the end of last year, they started to push the ball downfield. He started to push the ball downfield and take advantage of that good receiving core. And I think that's going to continue on into next season. And if he can just have a decent year, which I still think is within his range of outcomes as a player. If you look at his individual skill set and that defense is top five again, I mean, this isn't a world-beater division. I don't think the Falcons are that good, even though they upgraded a quarterback. The Panthers are one of the worst teams in the NFL.

The Buccaneers spent a lot of money to maintain a pretty mediocre roster and still lost some guys, including Carlton Davis. So I think this division is there for the taking, and I think the Saints have been in the running for this division every year for the past three years, despite their quarterback situation. And I think this could be their best quarterback year that they've had since Drew Brees was actually Drew Brees. what here's what I would say if I was going to help your take out a little bit because I need it. It's that Clint Kubiak's calling the offense now. And it's not, you know, that Pete Carmichael, you know, that Sean Payton kind of framework for an offense.

I think that them leaving that very quarterback centric, everything's going to be about you making the right decision type of West Coast offense and going to something that's a little bit closer to the Shanahan style. A, I think it's good for that offensive line. I think that's probably a necessity for them. I think that'll kind of help maybe Tyler's Fulaga, you know, kind of speed up his progress. You know, I don't know where things stand with Trevor Penning right now. I'm sure he's probably not in the best spot. I don't know, you know, how much we'll see of him.

If he gets kicked inside, if that's something that's possible for him. And if that's, if they're able to get the most possible out of the run game, I do think that that Shanahan style of offense fits a crystal alave really well. It fits a Rashid Shahee very well in terms of play action, deep and intermediate passes into open windows. I think that will probably be good both for the wide receivers and for Carr, where you're not asking him to throw in a tight windows as often. You're not asking him to play just straight shotgun dropback game where you know you're going to get more dink and dunk out of him because he doesn't want to be pressured. So I can see the idea behind that in conjunction with the fact that the NFC South is still not the strongest,

even with Atlanta taking its steps forward, even with Tampa Bay, I think solidly just being a tough team to beat, you know, two times a year. I can understand why you might want to make that take. I'm glad it's yours and not mine because I would not feel good about this at all.

I'm hyping up Derek Carr and Aaron Rogers so far in this pod. I don't like these takes either. I just want to sort of see what, if there was anything that I was missing that was going on with the Saints and I just did a little Google search. And the first thing that came up was, Pope Francis social media posts uses saints hashtag with ironic message because I think he just he made a tweet and he hashtag the saints

and a lot of saints blogs aggregated it as though he was a fan I mean that's what I've got for the course that's all you got that's all you have to add I mean there isn't much to add about this have you considered if this comes if if you're right about this if this works out if this comes true have you considered the ways in which this will emboldened Mickey Loomis and what that will do to the financial future of this organization? Oh, no, it's going to be a disaster of this time. This is the worst case scenario for this team. This is a team that very much needs a one in 16 season. They need to just for the bottom

to fall out, more than so than any other team. But I don't think that's going to happen. And it hasn't happened for the last five years. So, and just to add to DeAndiote's point, I do think the best year we've seen out of Derek Carr was under John Gruden, whose offense isn't like like like a Shanahan offense, but like it inspired Shanahan. He was literally the guy that hired him and brought him into the league. I just love the framing there that like if the Saints went 1 and 16 that that means that Mickey Loomis would change his behavior. It would not just try to continue rolling the ball down the hill with cheap vets.

Well, I also said it would emboldened in Mickey Loomis as though he is not emboldened enough already. I don't think that's the guy that needs much help to continue behaving the way that he behaves with team. Just a thought exercise, you know. hashtag saints may I may I give my last one here

just as that because there is a little bit of a counter argument just even here I too believe the NFC South is a very winnable division but I do think it's going to the Falcons I thought you were going to say the Panthers at first I know I enjoyed I enjoyed that moment when I knew what was going on in your head

keep pounding No, I think it's the Falcons division to lose. And I think that all the chaos of draft night has maybe made people lose the scent with this team a little bit. Or it's added a dimension to Falcons predictions that I think is probably more properly applied next year, like a little bit down the road when there are some real decision making between cousins and. Michael Pennex and whatever they think they're doing there, which I don't still don't totally understand. That said, I think this season, to my mind, Kirk Cousins is going to be pretty obviously the better quarterback there. I think he will be the best quarterback in the division. I think they should have a pretty easy path towards winning that. They have committed $100 million to them. I think that'll

influence the decision making there. And what all this means to me is that I think Kirk Cousins is going to give us the meme of the year. Because this man, like, we've given Kirk Cousins who has already been making some sort of forays into the entertainment universe.

Like he clearly liked being a part of quarterback, was into that. He obviously had a lot of big feelings about what happened during the draft and the drafting of panics. And I don't know what it's going to be.

but I do know that I think Kirk Cousins is set up to the bar is not super high, but when we're talking about, you know, it's not a given that they're going to win this division. It's not even a given that he's going to be the year long starter for his own team, which I think is a part of the discourse after the draft, which doesn't totally make sense to me. I think this gives Kurt Cousins a really, really clear opportunity to exceed expectations. and I just think he's going to go off with that energy in ways that we probably can't even even fathom right now. Like there's going to be a sort of like a daddy's home energy to Kirk Cousins this year.

And none of us are prepared for it. I don't want it. But I just, I feel in my gut that it's coming. He is leaning into the bit a little bit more. More and more every year. And I think the feedback to quarterback last year, which was overwhelmingly.

positive has kind of it's kind of a Mickey Lewis situation where he's been emboldened to act even more like I mean there's a look to someone there's a glint in their eye when they've started to play around in the general sort of bit universe

and where they you can tell that they want to lean into the bit they're hungry for it they really they want to be exploring that artistically narratively and Kirk Cousins has that he has that look to him right now And I don't know what it's going to be, but this is already the man who brought us. You like that.

And I just think that you like that, that part two is coming to theaters near you. So we're getting a successor to not only you like that, but like the chains. I don't, I don't even know what to call it. Like when he had the chains on in the locker room and everyone was celebrating or maybe it was on the plane. So he has one meme of the year like twice already. So you're saying he's going for a three-pe. This is similar to my Ed Rogers take, but instead of MVP's, it's memes. Yes.

Yes. He's going for the three-beat. I don't know why I'm feeling a very, like, 2016 Drake energy to it. But I mean 2016 Drake in the context of now, if that makes sense. He's in a great city to do it. He is in the city to lean all the way in. I would love to get some skits of him and him at Icebox at the jewelry store in Atlanta, putting on just some obnoxious chain, going to Magic City,

and eaten wings. What are the odds on Kirk Cousins going to Magic City this season? That could be the thing. Interesting. It's both, it's both completely congruent with a certain, with a certain type of his public, like a certain element of the way that he comports himself in public. And it is also really incongruent with that in some ways.

And I don't know, I don't know which part of Kirk Cousins is going to be at the wheel this year. But I do know that we're going to find. out. So I'm throwing in a bonus take for the take capsule. Kirk Cousins will go to Magic City this calendar year. I have to ask Julie Cousins about that one, but I love it. That's the energy that we needed. You were, you were worried that the takes weren't spicy enough. But I think we got there. Should that lead me into my final take? Yeah, let's do it. All right. This is the last time we're going to see Sean Payton coached the NFL this season. This is the last season coaching.

Wow, okay. Did he make it through the year? He makes it through the year. He makes it through November. He gets fired in December and we'd never hear from him again. First of all, he already retired like three years ago and he came back, although that was a fake retirement just to get out of the same situation, which was actually a smart move on his part.

But in terms of wind totals, like projected wind totals by Vegas, the over-unders, they have the worst one in the NFL tied with the pandas. So expectations are already low. I think they're in one of the tougher divisions in the NFL. Even if the charters aren't what we expected them to be like two years ago, I think that they're going to be really competitive. I think the Chiefs are taking a step forward. I think the Raiders are in a better spot than they've been in the last 20 years,

at least competitively with Antonio Pierce. So I can see them winning like four three to four games. And then if you throw on top of that Bo Nix being a disaster, which I think is a very much of possibility in that offense, especially how it's been moved around. Like the receiving core isn't what it was or what it was promised to be when they drafted Jerry Judy, when they drafted all those guys.

I think there's a chance that this gets really ugly on offense. And if they lose a lot of games, I could see them cutting the court on the Sean Payton experiment because it's been based on the fact that, one, he's an adult in the room, he's going to make everything better, which didn't necessarily happen last year coming off the Nathaniel Hackett season.

And then two, that he's going to be the guy that figures out the quarterback problem. And if you gave him a lottery, pick and he used it on Bo Nix and Bo Nix looks like what I expect Bo Nix to look like in his rookie year, I would lose a lot of faith in that man after this year. So two year, two down years, plus a disaster of a pick at quarterback, I think is enough to move on from Sean Payton, who at this point causes a lot of headaches off the field. Who, who does the firing? Condi Rice, Lewis Hamilton. No, they bring Nathan O'Hackett to do it. he has to earn whatever they're still paying him right the walton still have to be paying him like

whatever was left on his contract so he can still earn the money he comes in to buy of shan i don't know if that gives them the option to just like ask him to execute discrete tasks you think you would turn out that opportunity after all the shit champagne was talking over the last year that i did not say that it's true that's true you're doing like a gold and an awesome powers impression In a voice. Yes. Yes. Yeah, I'm sure you know what.

I wouldn't have assumed you would have gone that way. I thought that Stephen was going to set up like Sean Payton does the Bobby Batrino where he looks up in like week 13. And Zach Wilson is starting at quarterback. And he just kind of has that moment of like, I did not take this job for this. I'm leaving. This is it for me. Oh, my God. That's a better one.

Who was it on the Bills who retired midgame a couple years ago? Monta Davis. Yeah. Sean Payton is absolutely like, tell me if you. you guys agree with this. There's no other coach in the entire league who I think would be more likely to quit in the middle of a football game than Sean Bain. That's a good take. No, he leaves at halftime and then Kevin James comes out and coaches the second time. You're setting up the worst spinoff of the Ted Lassau universe.

Okay, now that's my take. If you just start a movie studio? Kevin James coaches the Broncos in December. It's my new take for the take capsule. Write that down, Isaiah. It did. I don't think I said this to either you, but it did cross my mind, both at the beginning of this pod and also in, when we were just chatting before, we started recording that Stephen twice was like, ah, I didn't get spicy enough. And I was just like, this means we're going to a 15. Like by the end of this episode, something is going to be at a 15 out of 10. And I do believe that we've accomplished that. Can't wait. Can't wait. Content rules,

as always. That was, I've done. done three, Stephen, you've done three. Deonti, did you give us all three of yours or were you still missing one? I have one more. I almost regret being the last one because mine feels way more serious and it should have been. It's okay. It's okay. Bring us down to planet Earth. Close us out. So, starting the 2025 season, the head coach of the Dallas Cowboys is Ben Johnson, but he does not have Deck Prescott as his starting quarterback. I'm excited. I don't know this is boring at all. Yeah, it's just a real roller coaster. So the year goes awfully. you know, I'm pitching that the year goes awfully for Dallas.

It's very clear that they have to move on. Maybe they make the playoffs again after an underwhelming regular season. They get dusted again by a Green Bay or even worse by a team like Chicago who's ahead of schedule. And, you know, makes it clear that this team just can't contend under the current constitution of the team. They separate from Mike McCarthy. Dak Prescott's ready for a different look. Maybe it goes to Miami, something like that if the Tulu extension doesn't come in the timeline that we think it. will. And now you've got Ben Johnson as one of the highest paid head coaches because Jerry's got to

send that money somewhere. And he's got personnel control there, but he does not have a quarterback. And you're looking at a hard reset for Dallas with maybe the hottest offensive play caller in the NFL. And I think that you're probably setting up to be looking up again in three to four years saying that an NFL team has wasted an opportunity with the great coach because they did not pair him with the right pieces to maximize on an opportunity with them. So how do you think it ends for Dak Prescott? Do you think Dak has a good year? They just move on because, like, you know, it's very clear that they're not going to win with this setup, or do you think deck kind of takes a step back? I think that, I think the deck is still in the range of what we've seen.

I don't know if it's going to be MVP candidate, like how it was early in the year, you know, when he's healthy when that offense was really rolling. But I think he's still probably in that top eight, top ten quarterback range. It's just clear that being a top eight to top ten quarterback isn't good enough for the rest of this roster. You know, Mike Zimmer doesn't get it done with the defense, and it's just time to rip the Band-Aid off and start fresh. Whether or not you have a franchise quarterback still is just clear that they're not going to be able to pay him, pay Micah, pay Trayvon Diggs, and still be able to pay CD Lamb and

still be able to feel in a competitive roster with all those big contracts around them. I mean, even like with the season he had last year when he was an MVP candidate, I think it was like week 16. Whenever they played the bills, it looked like he was the favorite to win it, there were still question marks along their same lines. This was still a situation where you, it wasn't like obvious. Let's give him the big contract and make them the dude for the next five to six years. So I think even if he does take like a minor step back that this is a possibility, like you said.

On the flip side, though, I think even if that does happen, some team is going to give him a monster contract. So you want to go out on a prediction of who that is or who you'd like to see do it. Part of me will, I really want Miami to happen. I don't think it's possible. I would love for it to be Miami just to give him those two receivers and Mike McDaniel and see what he looks like in an offense that does not ask him to be a superhero, every play for them to have a fighting chance. I don't know realistically where else you're left with that.

Like, I don't know if Denver is going to be able to open up enough cash space to still have a viable roster with the Russell Wilson money still hanging around. So I think favorite pick would be Miami. but anywhere else, like I said, he's a good enough quarterback that you could drop him in almost anywhere else. And we're instantly talking about that team being a sneaky contender. Panthers. He's a panther. 2025.

David Tepper opened up the checkbook. Keep pounding just a little bit longer. It'll happen. It'll happen eventually. All right, guys, good pod. That was fun. I'm excited to revisit all of this stuff. I'm sure we will be proven completely correct, as we always have been.

And really always will be. I'm sure of that. Thank you to Deonte Lane, Stephen Ruiz, for joining me. Thank you to Isaiah Blakely for producing this episode. And to Connor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgapal for their additional production supervision.