The Ringer NFL Show - Too Much Texans Hype? What Is Michael Penix Jr.’s Draft Stock? Will the Cardinals Trade Down From Four? | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: April 8, 2024

Sheil and Ben start off this week's edition of ‘Extra Point Taken’ by discussing what will happen with the fourth overall pick. Will the Cardinals trade the pick for more assets, or stay at four and draft a receiver? What are the risks of drafting Michael Penix Jr. in the first round? Should we pump the breaks on the Texans hype train following the acquisition of Stefon Diggs? The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak Producer: Cliff Augustin Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Social: Eduardo Ocampo and Kiera Givens Video: John Richter and Ronak Nair Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

There are a lot of quarterbacks in the NFL draft this year. My name is Ben Solac and I host the Ringer NFL Draft Show with Danny Kelly, Danny Hyfitts, and Craig Horlebeck. We cover trades, free agency, and the draft, which is, yeah, obviously. We'll tell you about everything, which includes which quarterbacks are good, which quarterbacks are bad and which quarterbacks are just Kirk Cousins. That is the Ringer NFL Draft Show. Search the Ringer NFL Draft Show on Spotify. Welcome to extra points. Taking Shield Kapati here. Join by Ben Solac, we are 17 days away from the first.

NFL draft. I've got some more weird, terrible draft take that Solax's going to get mad at me for during this episode. And so like, this is the first show we've done where I got a window on my right side here. I might just get eclipsed by this bad boy during the show. So that's exciting. You said 17 days to the draft, buddy, hour and a half to the eclipse. That's the only thing I've been looking forward to in April. I can give a hoot about the draft. I scheduled my whole day around this sucker. I'm excited. There you go. So we got to. clips. We got draft. We got a lot going on. Remember, you two, you can now watch the entire episode. So let's see mine and shield's face is progressively dark as our respective windows

offer less and less light. That's right. And I know this wasn't on the record, Solek, but Solock said he didn't shave. If you want to see Solac with a little scruff on the face, you know, you don't get to see that every day. Exactly 1.5 days worth of scruff. Yes, very exciting. There you go. Ringar NFL, uh, subscribe to that on YouTube. And now we're Monday shows from now until the draft. You can watch the entire episodes. All right, so I'm up first here. This morning, did a little exercise. I'm going through the top 10. Who's moving where? Settle on some takes, you'll come on, go on the record. You got a podcast to do. So I've settled on a trade. And it's one we've discussed before. And it's one that if I had to say right now,

what trade do I think is going to happen? This is the one. The Vikings are trading up to four and they are drafting their quarterback there. So you look at the first pivot point in the draft. I think it's at number four. I don't believe that the Patriots are moving down. Where are you with that? Patriots drafting a quarterback versus trading down like percentage. What are your thought?

I think 75 take quarterback, 25 trade down. And I should say 75 take quarterback 20 trade down, 5% stay and take wide receiver, would be where I would put it right now. Okay. My head was a little bit 80-ish, but we're in the same ballpark. We think it's more than likely that the Patriots take the quarterback at 3. So then we get to 4, and this is the spot where I think teams are going to be calling Monty Asin for. You saw the clip, right? Monty working the phones from last week. Do you want vacation? Did you see that? I saw the clip. This is unbelievable myth-making and PR.

Is that incredible, oh, look at Monty on the phones. That's every GM. Dude, that's all of them. That's 100% of GMs, 100% of day one. It's so funny. So lack balding, bashing another bald man. I will not stand for it. I will say Monty had good stage presence now. All right.

It's about the GMs. Exactly. He's using a Mach 3 on that bad boy. He's not going with some cheap electric version. He was standing. He was moving. He was pointing to people. They're doing a good job looking busy.

Other GMs are just sitting there on their cell phones to way the hunched over in their seats. Monty had a good presence to him. I will give him that. There you go. So I think Monta Aston Ford is going to be working the phones once again. The Arizona Cardinals have the number four overall selection, there are going to be teams that want to move up to that spot to draft a quarterback.

So who is it going to be? So I was looking, you can pick out really a handful of teams in the first round where you say, hey, they could move up, they could move up, they could move up. The one I settled on was the Minnesota Vikings. It's probably the most obvious choice. I don't want to make this seem like I'm coming with some out of left field take here. We talked about them before. They've already made the trade to get the 23rd pick from the Houston Texans.

And so the Vikings go into this draft with 11, with 23, and with an organization, Soel Act that keeps, has used this term competitive rebuild for like three years now. Nothing about Sam Darnold, competitive, Sam Darnold, I'm sorry, I know the truthers are out there. I'm not putting those two words together. So if you're going to get to competitive aspect of the rebuild, at some point, you need the rebuild aspect. And the rebuild aspect is getting the quarterback. And so this is a team with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. They've got players on offense.

They've got two good offensive tackles. This is a QB friendly environment for a rookie to come in and you say, no, no, you don't have to carry the whole operation. We can just kind of slot you in. We're not going to ask you to do everything right away. We're going to work with you. We're going to develop you. And this is going to be a nice two to three year run where we can develop into a

competitor. So here's the trade. Here's what I've got in terms of the compensation. So I was looking at the last couple of drafts here, 2023 and 2021. I think the Vikings move from 11 to 4. So you swap picks there. They give up number 23 and they give up a 2025 first. I think if you look at the Trey Lance deal from 2021, pretty similar.

If you look at the Texans deal from last year, moving up to get Will Anderson, pretty similar. And then Minnesota takes either J.J. McCarthy, your boy. You did a nice. You did a nice JJ McCr. How do people get to that? Playsheet on the Ring or NFL YouTube channel, right? If they're listening to this podcast, they know about the Ringar NFL YouTube. And where our full episodes lives, also where the play sheet lives.

Crazy. Pretty cool. Pretty exciting. There you go. So Vikings fans, check out that JJ McCarthy video. The one thing I thought watching JJ McCarthy, he fires balls over the middle, aggressively, accurately. That is probably his best trait. And Kevin O'Connell was talking about quarterbacks a couple of weeks to go to the media.

and one thing he mentioned, you got to be able to work different parts of the field. You got to be able to work the middle of the field. So I think he could make sense, or obviously your real boy, Drake May. It could make sense if he's still available there. I've got like six clips of Drake May throwing concepts that the Vikings have used,

and I'm just saving all of them. And even when they take him, be like, there it is. That's what I'm talking about. You are a big fan of like the, you like coming back to the content produced when the content is necessary. I've noticed.

Like you love when a story breaks and you're like, wait, we talked about this. Then on January 18th, let's get a clip for that bad boy. Listen, the people are very good at remembering when I am wrong. Accordingly, I must be equally good and equally vigorous at recalling those precious few moments in which I am correct. And that is why when the Texas make a big trade for a star receiver, I'll talk about that a little bit, I'm like, all right, I talked about this two months ago. Somebody get it.

Somebody prove I occasionally know what I'm talking about. There you go. So Vikings move up 11 to 4, give up 23, give up a 20, 25 first, take their quarterback. Cardinals move down to 11. Then they can decide, hey, do we want to move back up to get a blue chip player in the top 10? Or do we just chill here? Because there might still be a good player here. So I have settled on that.

I'm good with it. It will be in my mocks. Vikings are trading up to 4 to draft a quarterback. Where do you stand with this with, what did I say, 17 years to go? So you have quarterback at 1, Caleb Williams, quarterback at 2. commanders, quarterback at three Patriots, quarterback at four Minnesota Viking. I do. This is rare, right? Well, it dovetails into my first take, which is that quarterbacks will not go one, two, three, four. That is my first take. Oh, all right. So give it to me. I like it. The reason is because

it hasn't happened. We have not seen quarterbacks go one, two, three, four. Quarterbacks have only gone one, two, three times. It was in 2021. It was in 1971, and it was in 1999. We have not had a year in which we have had a one, two, three, four quarterback run. That is, and I think that, that when this class might feel like it's uniquely suited for that, be like, oh, well, like, there's so much interest in the top guys, top 10, top 15, oh, JJ McCarthy, Jane Daniel, the Rise. We have to remember, like, there was that interest in 2018. There was that interest in 2021.

Like, there are, we have had really good classes, not in like, oh, kind of recent memory, and very recent memory, where people were talking about the potential for quarterbacks to go one, two, quarterbacks to go one, two, three, and then quarterbacks to go one, two, three, four, and it didn't happen. Now, if you're, you know, if you're remembering those, those classes, then you can, you know, say, oh, well, Ben, you know, in 20, 21, like, you know, okay, we had quarterback go one, we had quarterback go two, quarterback go three, but there were top guys, like, you know, like, the, the, Jamar Chase was always going to go early. Penny Sewell was always going to go early. Dude, the Falcons stayed at four until Kyle Pitts, which, like,

we all loved Kyle Pitts. Got it, like, as a prospect, like, Kyle Pitts was super fun player. Nobody was like, make sure you go get the tight end, top five, right? obviously 17 days out, it looks logical for the Patriots if they are not taking a quarterback to trade out at three. Obviously, 17 days out, it is logical for the Cardinals at four if they are not taking a quarterback to trade out. And the Chargers at five and the Titans at seven, like it is always true in April that the trade out for the quarterback and get the big package makes the most sense. When push comes to shove, two things tend to happen. One, team just want to draft the guy. The Patriots are there at three. They have the highest grade on

Marvin Harrison that Elliot Wolf has ever seen given out in 20 years, and they stay and they take him. He's going to think that's a good idea. We're all going to be over here on our little podcast being like, oh, you get a future for something? But he's going to go to sleep like a baby that night, right? So number one, you have to remember teams love just staying and taking the guy that they think is an elite dude.

Whether that's Malik Harrison, or excuse me, Marvin Harrison or Malik Neighbors, those two names have been getting me, man. I've called Malik Harrison and Marvin Neighbors so many times this cycle. So whether it's one of those two receivers, whether it's a tackle. Teams love to stay and take their guys. So that can happen. The other thing that can happen

is that they get to draft day and all March you've been on the phones. All April we've been on the phones. Oh, you know, we're not moving for less than this. We're going to get that. We need a future pig. You've got to send us this veteran play and we're going to do this.

And then all of a sudden you get to draft day. It's 10 minutes on the clock and the Vikings won't move, right? You're there at the Cardinals at 4. You're saying, we are not moving for less than a future first and a future second and a future third. And the Vikings just say, no.

Like, hey, we are not moving our offer. And that's because they have phone lines into five, and they have phone lines into seven. And the charges of five and the Titans at seven told them, hey, we won't take a Broncos offer until we let you one up it. We won't take a Raiders offer until we call you and let you want up it. And the Vikings feel like, hey, we don't need to pay your price, right? Sometimes the deal just doesn't get done even if you're trying to get there.

And so it is very hard. It is very challenging for quarterbacks to go one, two, three, four. And so while I acknowledge the intensity of the quarterback needs, and while I certainly acknowledge that we could just see quarterbacks go one, two, three to the teams that are drafting there. Like one, two, three feels like a very strong chance of happening. I'm going to go ahead and predict that quarterback one, two, three, four is not going to occur. Simply because historically, that ain't happening, brother.

All right. So then let's get to, so you think that the first three, the most likely Caleb Williams and then some combination of Drake May and Jade and Daniels, yes? That's the top three? Or are you wavering on that? pick the three. I would say it's going to go Caleb one. I would say it's going to go Jaden, two. I think the closer we get the more, I think the commanders are a Jain team. I think if Drake May is on the board for the Patriots at three, I think that that's the sort of player that

they'll like because Elliot Wolf, Green Bay Packers background, looking for size of quarterback, to me that makes the most sense. I, like six seconds before we got on this podcast, bet on Caleb Williams to go one, J.J. McCarthy to go two, and Drake May to go three at plus 1400 on Fandall. Wait, wait. What you? J.J. McCarthy to go to and Drake May to go three. Wow, okay. Because what I'm essentially getting there is, again, if I believe that Drake May is the guy for the Patriots hit three, then what I'm essentially getting exposure on is J.J. McCarthy to go second overall at plus 1,400, which right now J.J. McCarthy goes second overall flat is plus 850. So I bought it's, I thought it was good business. But that is to say that

the commanders, man, here's what, here's my, I should have made this to take. Here's my official prediction what's going to happen over the next two weeks for the commanders. All right? We are going to every single day get a little bit more of a chestier, more certain, more explicit report from Schuster and then from Schroeder and then from Jordan Schultz and then from Rappaport, like different insiders, whatever, saying it increasingly looks like Jay and Daniels is the quarterback of two for the commanders.

We're going to get that over the next two weeks. And then sometime, two to five days before the first day of the NFL draft, there's going to be a strong report in the other direction, that's either Drake May or JJ McCarthy, and then we are going to enter draft day not knowing. That is my official prediction for what goes down. So while I currently think it is Jaden,

if you made me write my final mock draft right now, I would bet Jaden, I have bets on Jaden, that's my current expectation. That right now is a strong opinion loosely held. I'm going to be willing to change that as information comes in, and I think you're going to see that process kind of unfurl itself over the next two weeks. I could definitely see that with Jaden,

with the commanders and Jaden Daniels because no one is saying like Lock guaranteed. It feels like no one totally knows and they're hedging a little bit saying, all right, yeah, we think they're leading first Jane and Daniels, but we're not sure. Specifically, with Drake May would not shock me if all of a sudden week of the draft. It's like, no, they're taking Drake May. Like, Drake May has been the number two quarterback for a long time.

And one of the reasons, by the way, is because I think four out of every five, Jane Daniels at two to the commanders, sourcing, reporting, rumor mungering is coming from a different team. I think that right now teams believe the commanders are taking Daniels at two. And oftentimes, teams are wrong about other teams. So I do think that, like, a lot of the smoke around Daniels at two is coming from the Vikings and the Patriots and the Broncos. And the teams are trying to figure this out more so than it's coming from Washington's building. All right.

So you don't think we're getting four straight quarterback. So then tell me the fourth quarterback, how low do they fall? Are you giving me a guy, guys in the green room, Aaron Rogers type situation? Or you say, no, it's not going to be four. But then at five, the chargers are going to trade down. and whoever is left, whether it's J.J. McCarthy or someone else, he's going to go there. It sort of feels like at six with the Giants, I mean, giants feel like they're definitely wouldn't mind a quarterback dropping to them at six. And if you're another team, if you can trade

up to four or five with the Cardinals or the Chargers and draft one, that those are nice options too. So how far do you see the fall for the fourth guy? So excellent question. I would love for Fanduel to give us the bet of over, under. draft position for the fourth quarterbacks do you have down right now we're 17 days away do you have your app handy i mean how many opening my sheet i'm looking i i have remarkably less exposure this year at this age this draft is tough to figure out man it really is we usually know a lot more at this stage i have 16 draft bets in usually at this stage i would be near like 30 40 okay i would love to do a show just going over all 16 of those maybe one of our friday shows all right sorry you were saying

Yeah, that Roma Dune's a wide receiver one overall bet from November, really looking good. We should talk about that one. I took about my Drake May to go one overall that I took in like August. Yeah, so if I were to set the line right now as to over under which draft position, the fourth quarterback were to be selected, I would set it at 6.5. I would say that it is as likely the fourth quarterback is taken in the top six picks as it is likely the fourth quarterback is taken at pick seven or later. that gives you the Giants under the bar. It gives you the Chargers trade pick under the bar.

It gives you the Cardinals trade pick under the bar. Above it, it puts the Titans at 7. I think the Titans are a very strong tradeback team. Gives you the Bears at 9 and the Jets at 10, both of whom I think could be strong tradeback teams. And then obviously you're getting, you know, the Vikings and the Broncos and the Raiders at their own spots over the bar as well. I think that's probably the fair line.

You would expect to get a heavy bet to the under. So maybe you juice it a little bit. But that's what I would say. This Giants thing, man. in the first last week of February, first week of March, people say, oh, Giants are doing their homework on quarterbacks.

And I was like, yeah, sure, all right, buddy, sounds good. Second week of April, I'm kind of buying it. I'm not going to lie. The way that people talk about it, I'm becoming more and more convinced the Giants might just, like, if you, if you pretend that somebody else gave Daniel Jones the big extension and that this was a new front office and a new head job. Which I'm sure they would love to do that, they would love that exercise.

But if you could pretend that somebody else did it, they would be the perfect bridge team right now. You have Daniel Jones in hand for a year, right? Invest in, get an early quarterback. And then you have some, some developmental pieces on the offensive line. You have some developmental pieces at wide receiver. Obviously, they need to get better at both spots. But, like, it's not like their total zeros there.

You have a good office of mine and Brian Dable. Like, they would totally make sense as a bridge team. Just the fact that Brandon Bean and Brian Dable were the ones that signed to this Daniel Jones. Joe Shane. Come on. Joe Shane, excuse me, please. Yeah. Joe Shane, yeah.

Poor guy. Listen, they're all the same. The New York GM Coaching Tree of Brandon Bean and a Joe Shea and they blend together for me. Now I will gladly take the under six and a half. What do you want to do?

A little like you wearing denim versus me growing a mustache or something. I also will take the under. And so I need like... So then what if you make it six? I'll still take it at six. Six, six is a push. I want to make a five and a half.

All right. So five. All right. Five and a half. You went to go again like irate. Well, I didn't want to lose at six if it's six, but I still feel good about it. For the sake of content, all right, for the sake of content, I'll do it. I will take the under five. Even though the guy literally just a minute ago, sip the over under six and a half

until he had to take the other side and then he moved it a full slot. Did everyone notice that? Welcome to the negotiating table, shield. But listen. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. In this made up market, I kind of get to make demands. Listen, since I'm team content, I'm not scared off by it.

I will take the under five and a half. Let's work on the terms. Give us some suggestions. The expats out there, what do you want to see? Solek famously does not like to wear denim. I famously, people want me to wear a goatee to see if I look like Jalen Hertz in that one photo where he wore the rude hat.

There are all sorts of things you can get into here and we can make some type of wager. We'll make some type of wager from now until the draft. Now, my Vikings take your like, yeah, sure, that could happen. If you had to pick one team, let me ask you this. If you had to pick one team to trade up to four to take the quarterback, is it the Vikings or is it somebody else? It is the Vikings.

But again, like, I think right now that the consensus is like, oh, 90% chance, 95% chance that it's the Vikings. I think the Broncos are a lot more liable to mortgage their future than people realize. I absolutely, if I'm Sean Payton, I'm running that building right now, I'm saying to myself, all right, trade up, go get our guy. Go get like, you know, I love a, love a J. Jim McCarthy, right? He does what he's told. Let's go trade up to go get him. And then if it doesn't work, you go, oh, man, and then you retire. Like, I have no idea why that. That's it. Sean Payton, absolutely unequivocally should and can and I think has a good chance to do that. So Broncos

trading up would not surprise me at all. Only thing I wonder about Peyton is does he want, does he want to go through a rookie quarterback developmental process right now? Or is he like, let's just wait for the next unhappy veteran to come on the market, whether Stack Prescott next year or somebody else, and let's just go ahead and do that. He sort of feels like somebody who would prefer to just have the veteran, where it's somebody who you don't have to start from where one way, but I could be wrong.

Yeah, okay, so my first take was quarterbacks won't call 1, 2, 3, 4. My second take is also related to quarterbacks in the first round and has a lot to do with the Broncos as well. I know it's going to throw off our order, but do you want me to transition to it? All right, let's take a break. We'll come back and Solac, the man, the man who once ripped me for suggesting, let's go snake order is now saying, let's go snake order. We'll be right back.

Can I stress how different that was. It's unbelievably different. All right, we're back on extra point taken. We're going snake order, baby. One and then two, three to Solac. We never, never before done. Not only could I get nailed with the eclipse to my right side here, but we're doing, a snake order on a

what, what an episode already. I've already regret this because of how excited you are about the snake grafting. Go ahead. So my second take, and it's very much a corollary to my first take.

Yeah, so quarterbacks won't go one, two, three, four, but strongly by second take, there will be four quarterbacks that go in the first round. There will not be five. All right? We're getting,

we're getting the yearly, oh, Michael Panics, ran a fast. 40 at his pro day might be in the first rounds. Oh, what if you're, oh, Bo Nix? Some teams they love Bo Nix, right? Scouts have him QB3, Scouts have him QB4.

Oh, you know, the pedigree and ball control and quick passing game, and he's accurate. We do this every year where we start talking about the middle-round quarterbacks as potentials to go in the first round. And the reason that we're doing that is because there is always somebody who's got guys rated way higher than consensus, right? Like, that's true of coaches. It's true of scouts.

It's true of, like, people like me in the media who grade people make stuff up, right? Drew Sanders is like the 11th overall player last year. He went like 65, right? If I worked for an NFL team, then you could write your stories and be like, oh, one scout has Drew Sanders, the top 15 player in this class.

Doesn't mean he's going to go top 15, right? Like, if you know 10 coaches and 10 scouts, this isn't a criticism on people who do this reporting, too. like this is part of the process. But if you know 10 coaches slash scouts, then you have 10 players who somebody's got ranked way, way highly, right? Like that is just law of big numbers.

And so every year we kind of, we always kind of take the cheese and we get excited about the idea that, oh, there are some people who are super high on this guy. Someone's always super high on this guy. So we have to like level that out. We have to level our expectations out as a, you know, source consuming drafts preparing football public.

When you look at the profile of Pennix and Nix in particular, this is the Washington, quarterback and the Oregon quarterback, for those who aren't as familiar with the draft cycle. These are exactly the sort of guys who typically go day two, day three. Michael Penix is a 20, is going to be a 24-year-old rookie who has multiple substantial knee injuries over the course of his career at Indiana and in Washington. He was extremely successful in his final season of Washington. Really great film, good arm, accuracy, pushing the ball down to feel aggressive. But you also have to ask just how much of that success was the result of him.

relative to the three NFL wide receivers that he played with, the multiple NFL offensive linemen that he played with, and the fact that his officer coordinator was hired to be the office coordinator of Seattle Seahawks, right? The environment in Washington was unbelievable. This very nicely maps onto a player like Henton Hooker, who came out of Tennessee last year who had injury concerns and had a big arm, but then started throwing NFL receivers in a highly successful college scheme and was suddenly very productive.

And in April, we talked about, oh, he might go round one, and then Hennon Hooker ended up being a midday three. pick, right? Like, profile-wise, is the sort of guy who goes day two. You move on to Bo Nix, who's the Oregon quarterback. Bo Nix is a six-year starter, all right? Yes, I said it. A six-year starter at the college level.

He has, like, he has, like, 62 total total games under his belt or something like that. He is currently 24 years old, right? He would be like 24 and a half when he's a rookie. This is an Auburn to Oregon transfer, who absolutely, unequivocally got better over the course of his career at Oregon, right? You saw the the film

improve and the decision-making improved. Like, I honestly, like, I like his film a little bit, right? He's decisive and he's quick and he gets rid of the ball. He also has a historically low average depth of target for a quarterback who might potentially go on the first round. We're talking like he has like the Luke Falk depth of target, right? It's the Brandon Silver's devil. We're talking about it's like the most air-rady of all air-rady, just dumping the ball off,

letting speed players play in speed sort of profile. This is not the sort of profile of a guy who goes round one. this is the profile of like a Matt Corral, right, who went in round four. This is a profile of your, you know, Kyle Laudetta, like who went round four. Like just, we have seen guys like this come out. And even though they get conversations like, oh, you know, we're interested in this guy. We like this guy. We don't see that manifest itself as a round one pick ever.

So again, this is just like looking back historically. I don't think quarterback's going to go one, two, three, four. Also looking back historically, I understand why there's hype and interest in panics in nicks. I'm fascinated to see where they're land. I think there is a good shot that both of those players can be. bridge starters, two, three-year starters, rookie contract starters. I do think they're that level of talent.

But historically, we do not see those guys get drafted round one. So always at this time of year, we get the hype, we get the interest, but it rarely bears itself out. I don't think any more than four, I think exactly four quarterbacks are growing round one. I would be flabbergasted if a fifth goes.

All right, so if you compared like Pennix and Knicks to the quarterbacks over the last 10 years who were sort of, who were, let's say, day two picked in the NFL. Like, you do not view them. You wouldn't say, oh, their profile or whatever, their film, whatever, your grade on them is better than like most of those where if just one team likes them a little bit,

they could be pushed up. You see them in the same class as the guys who typically go day two, or is that mischaracterizing? I had them right around where I had guys like Drew Locke and Desmond Ritter, who were like, Yeah, who like both Locke and Ritter were like guys where I was like, okay, like, I could see how this dude can get on the field and can start for you in the league and can give you some reps. Now, Ritter had his opportunity, wasn't able to cash in on it. Drew Locke had his opportunity, wasn't able to cash in on it. When you just throw grades and evaluations and place out the window, a quarterback who is drafted outside of the top 15 is extremely unlikely to become good for you. Like that, it's just like the idea of a developmental quarterback is mostly a pie in the sky.

It's mostly made up. Right. Oh, but they're a car. Oh, Jail. It's like, yes, there are some examples. It is mostly a pious guy. With that said, I think, like, the Bow Nix comp that I really like is Gardner Minchu. Remember when Gardner Minchu started for the Jaguars?

And we were like, okay, like, this is like a quarterback. He knows where his bread is butter. He knows what he can do well. And he got the team to like around a 500 finish. I can't remember the exact record. And they, like, made it to the playoffs. Now, everybody knew what was what, right? They went and drafted Trevor Lawrence.

Right. I was like, okay, like, Minchu is not going to be like a long-term future for you. But then Minchu goes and backs up for the Eagles. backs up for the Colts. Oh, Anthony Richardson goes down, darts, gets him to a round 500, and now he's making $25 million with the Raiders, right? Like, there's an NFL career for that.

You just have to be honest about what it is. Pennix, I would say, is a little bit more high ceiling because, like, the armed talent, the aggressiveness, he'll make more, more explosive plays, but the floor is way lower, because you just don't know if the guy's going to stay healthy at all. And so to me, like, again, like, it's that Drew Locke, like, Desden Ritter, I would say, like,

Mason Rudolph is also a guy where I was like, okay, you can see how he can give you eight games and you can feel fine with it. That's the sort of future that I have for those players. All right. I'm debating whether I want to do another wager and take the over four and a half. I'm going to need some time. Let me ask you this.

Let me ask you this. Yeah. I'll let I come back through three from the future, right? And I come back and I say, hey, a fifth quarterback went. There were five quarterbacks in the first round. How do you think that's happening? Because even if five quarterbacks go in the first round, the whole like, oh, Michael Pennix at 13 to the Raiders, Boenicks at 12 to the Broncos.

goes, absolutely not. I cannot buy that. I think it has to be somebody's trading back up into the first round to get the fifth year option. That is the only world I see where one of these guys maybe goes in the first round. All right. So let's say, I'm just looking at this. I'm doing this on the fly here. Let's say the Seahawks at 16 trade back and let's say they're somewhere around 29 to 32. You say John Schneider trading back? You sure? Is that, is that? John Schneider trades back. They've got Gino, but he's, what, 34 years old. They've got the offensive coordinator who we already know, knows Pennix as well as anybody possibly could in the NFL.

They've got wide receivers. They've got some talent on the offensive line. They still need to address it there. But could they look at it and say, all right, you know, we picked up some additional draft capital. This is a guy we like. We need to have a plan for the future. Let's throw a dart here at one time.

You know, John Schneider really liked Andy Dalton and the rest of the room, you know, was like, yeah. And so we passed on Andy Dalton. And then they were like, no, no, you are supposed to be the one making the decision. This was the story in Seattle when I was there. And so then Russell Wilson comes around. He's like, I like, I like Russell Wilson. And it's like, all right, well, you're the one making the decision.

Do you want Russell Wilson or not? Yes, we want Russell Wilson. And then they take Russell Wilson. I don't know if that's exactly how it went. I see your face. John Schneider, the only GM in history to be like, oh, I like this guy. But the room disagrees. I'll go with the room.

Nice guy, John Schneider. Sure. So there you go. So would it make sense for a team like that? I'm trying to look at some others. The Minnesota Vikings, let's say they are unable to trade up to four to get a quarterback and they stay put and they had the 23rd overall pick, which they already traded for. Would they take a flyer on Michael Pennick? So there you go. I'm going to look at some other names to see if they make sense. But those two scenarios specifically, would they make any sense to you or would you just absolutely crush them if they did something? I would not like it. I always do this. I feel like every single year. Like, let's go and let's look at the history of quarterbacks taken, like in the first round that were not top 15 picks, right? Like, guys was like, oh, I'm going to go get him in the first round for the fifth year option,

but I don't actually want to draft them that highly. Nobody in 2023, Will Levis goes obviously top around two. 2022, can he pick it at 20? Mac Jones 15 in 2021. Jordan Love, 26 overall in 2020, right? Nice, good. We had Dwayne Haskins, 2019. He was 15 overall. You get Lamar Jackson, 32 overall, Baltimore Ravens, smart team.

All right. Yep. Who else we got? We got Paxton Lynch. You just think two of the top eight to ten quarterbacks in the NFL right now? You just think, there you go? You think Michael Pan is going to get three years to sit in Minnesota? The way Jordan loved it? No, but he's old. You think you think Bonix?

You think Bonix is hitting the league at a time in which quarterback athleticism is just finally starting to be understood? All right, so here's the other side of the argument. Bill Barnwell wrote about this. very well as he always does on ESPN in a recent column. He had this nice breakdown. So the thought is the upside is so great that if you hit on one of these guys and just at a competent level, to your point, it doesn't mean that you're going to get, if you need a guy who's going to be top five, if you're picking in the first round and you get, say, the 14th

best quarterback, the 16th best quarterback, the best starter in the NFL, that is huge. And so he had this kind of confidence breakdown. Like, you need to be confidence, like a 20% confidence interval like that. If you had five picks, you were going to hit on one of them. That needs to be your interval for justifying taking a quarterback in the first round. It was a really cool way to do it because then you look at something like running back. And it's like, no, no, no. You need to be like 89th percent style confidence if you are drafting a running back.

So that's the thought that, yes, you can give me the history. I understand. I agree with you. Most of the time, it's not going to work out. if you feel like, hey, you know, we've done everything we can do, the analytics, the scouting, the interviews, the film, the coaching staff, the scouting staff, everybody. And we feel like this person really has a chance and we are at like a, you know, a 25% confidence level or maybe a little bit higher than that. I understand there's no really, real way to come up with that number.

But if you feel that, the upside is so high that it almost, you know, most of the time is going to justify making that selection. So that's why those are two of the teams I throw out there. I agree in a large sample world. You don't get a large sample world. The counter to that argument is, if you go and you look at the history of head coaches and general managers who drafted first round quarterbacks, the head coach of a first round quarterback who doesn't hit is almost universally fired within three years.

I have the data going from 2010 to 2019. I wrote about this in 2022 with the Vikings, right, talking about Rick Spielman. and Mike Zimmer. If you take a quarterback in the first round, he doesn't work. The GM, it's more like two out of every three times, three out of every four times they're fired. The head coach is almost universally fired.

And so if you could guarantee me, oh yeah, Ben, I'm going to give you five swings with a late first round pick to take a quarterback. Absolutely, I'm taking the swings. So I have a large enough sample. Okay, one of them hits, I keep my job. Usually you get one swing. I don't want to spend my swing.

I'm like, oh, if this works, which is very unlikely to work, I get the high upside. That's the problem is the job security issue, right? because I forgot that Jordan Love was good now. Love and Lamar are two good examples as of late. Jordan Love kind of hex my example here. Really like two of the favorite guys for this podcast.

If you keep going, you get Paxton Lynch, you get Johnny Mansell, you get Teddy Bridgewater, you get E.J. E.J. Manuel, you get Brandon Whedon. You get Tim Tebow. If you get to keep going, it's really, really bad. So, yeah, like, I, again, the number one part of the job is keeping the job. The job security risk for the general manager is too great to justify the hitting on the contract reward, take the guy round one. If the Vikings miss and they can't go up to four to get their guy, get out of the first round, get back from 23, get into the second round, then take Pennix 9 when it hurts less. Well, the point you make is a very good one, which is that the motivations of the general manager might not be the motivations of what is best for the organization for the long term. It's really a great example of why ownership matters.

Like, if I were an owner and you like the GM, you know, I would probably say, it's okay. If we miss on a quarterback in the first round, don't, this isn't, that's not, something might cost you your job. That's not going to be what costs you your job. I promise, take one. Let's give it two years, maybe three years. Let's see what it looks like. It's not good. Guess what?

We'll take another one. And if that doesn't work out, we'll take another one. It's really, I mean, because the alternative to what you were saying, yeah, all right, you don't want to use the pick. well, then it's just kicking the can down the road. And who rips the teams for kicking the can down the road every year? This guy, on the podcast, Atlanta Falcons. So it's just like, you can't just pass and pass and pass and, oh, this guy's not perfect pass next year.

And then what do you end up with? You end up still with a team with no quarterback. And it's like, what did you do all that for? And the coach is gone. So yeah, there's going to be risk either way. So obviously you have to have conviction and you have to have, all right, no, we actually like this guy and feel like he has a chance, even though we know that there's a possibility to fail.

And to wrap this up, so then you ask. the question, why are the good team's always good, right? Why, why, why are the Packers always drafting well, right? Why are the Ravens always drafting well? Why have the Eagles been, been a perennial Super Bowl team down the stretch, right, with like different quarterbacks as well? Because their front office has job security. So they have, they have stability from ownership, they have job security. They're allowed to make moves with a longer term view in the room. And that's how you get Jordan in love with three years to say. It's how you get Geelyerl-Hurts in the second round, which when the Eagles took Geelanerts in the second round,

I was like, this is the worst thing it's ever happened. But that's because I was looking at me liking Carson Wentz's to the fan, I had a 48-hour time span in my head. Eagles organization doesn't operate with that time span. And so if you can get job security to your guys, then you can make healthy long-term moves. The antithesis, the alter argument here being your Carolina Panthers. Just like, all right, this team will never be good

because there's never going to be stability at the decision-making position. Yeah, I think it's absolutely true. Those guys have a big advantage because they're not running. every draft like my job's on the line. Now, if you have two or three bad ones in a row and the organization stinks, then obviously everyone's job's going to be on the line. But yes, I would tell the GM, you could be fine. I might fire you for something, but this will not be the reason why I fire you. That point is where your Seahawks comment becomes interesting because John Schneider is just like, okay, great job security. He had it for a long time. Pete Carroll, Russell Wilson,

they were letting them cook, you know, missing a pick here, make a pick there, whatever. No more Russ. No more Pete Carroll. I would not. not describe the Seahawks draft history over the last three to four seasons as stellar. It's not terrible, but it's also not. It's tough. Two years ago, it looked like a great one. And yeah, it just goes back and forth a lot of time. Yeah.

And so now if you're, if you're Snyder, you do wonder if Snyder is in a position where he feels like there's a little bit more heat under his seat than there typically is. And how is that going to affect? Like, you can't be trading back into the second round drafting a running back anymore, John. You've probably got to do something different here. So it's an interesting thing when job security starts to wane. All right. good one.

Good conversation. There's a bigger picture, but also obviously relating to this draft. All right, so since it's snake order, I did one, you did two and three. Okay, but I'm only doing four,

so we're going away from the snake order now, correct? No, I go, you go, I go, how are we going to go now? I did two, three. You're going to do four or five. I'll do six, I'm doing four, five. You want me to do?

Okay, so it is all beautiful snake. What a snake we're doing. He's all in on the snake order. Love it. All right. All right, I'm up with my second take here. And I actually don't know what you think about this. So I'm curious.

Teams in the top 15 do not make the Brock Bowers is my second take. Okay, so let me be clear here because I know this will get misconstrued. I already hear it from your big sigh. No, no, no, she'll let me send you some clips on Bowers. This has nothing to do with Brock Bowers. This is not a knock on Brock Bowers. Brock Bowers is fun. You can't watch Brock Bowers.

Brock Bowers and say he's not fun. He's fun. He's productive. I like a Bowers. Yards after the catch, breaking tackles, jet sweeps. I mean, what gets a football guy going more than a tight end on a jet sweep? I mean, come on. The football guys are loving all that. I hope he has a great career. However, this to me is about the worst trait you can have as a draft evaluator, and that is overconfidence in your ability to evaluate talent. A couple weeks ago, you had a nice rant. You said the NFL doesn't learn. They think they learn. They say they learn. They don't learn. And you were talking about quarterbacks. I'm applying it to drafting tight ends. Okay? The latest, for some reason, and we can get into what those reasons might be, the league has had a

very, very difficult time evaluating tight ends. Last 10 years, tight ends drafted in the first round. Dalton Kincaid, that was just last year. I liked Kincaid. He looked good last year. David Najoku, Eric Ebron, Evan Ingram, Haydenhurst, Kyle Pitts, Noah Fant, OJ Howard, PJton. I'm not saying all those guys are bums. I think probably if you ask the GMs who drafted those guys, would you like to do a do-over on that one, given how their career turned out? I would think that most, if not all of them, would say yes. Okay, none of those guys have produced in all pro season.

We have one 1, 1,000-yard season from that entire group of 9 players. and that was Kyle Pitts as a rookie. And so this is where, like, when we look at how teams make decisions and what do you look at and what matters and what does him, we have pretty good evidence here over the last decade that tight end has become a pretty difficult position to scout, that the evaluation process is difficult. Yet every year, I enter the draft process late

and someone's telling me about a tight end who, no, this guy's different. This guy's going to be different. That other guy you were pointing to, This guy can do this. He couldn't do that. This guy can do this. He's going to be awesome right away. He's a shoot coming his tight end.

Watch, let me show you this clip where he's lining up with. No, do not do it. Just look at the history. Just look at the history. I'm looking at mock draft this morning. I'm seeing the Jets at 10. I'm seeing the Broncos at 12. Are you serious?

No, no, no, no. Look at this process with a little humility and say, we might like him. He might be a Hall of Fame. He might be a great player, but you know what? We're just going to look at the history, and if someone else gets him and he's great, we're going to let them go ahead and do that. We are not going to be the ones betting on the exception here.

Let's go ahead and take someone else, and let's let them take the gamble on Brock Bauer. So there you go. Again, nothing to do with Brock. I like a Brock Bowers. I'll watch some YouTube clips of Brock Bowers. I like it. Fun. Hopefully he lands in a good spot, and it's very good.

that if you are a team in the top 10 to 15, do not take that gamble. Let someone else have the risk reward on Brock Bauer. So there you go. I'm so upset. This goes... No, no, no, no. I just loved...

I loved... Oh, let me show you some plans. Let me just look at the numbers. Look at the demo. No. Just... Absolutely not. I don't want to see it.

Now, this is the one where I begrudgingly admit that... I do think overall you are right. Right? if I were a GM and I was the GM of the Jets at 10 and Tyler Conklin, it was my best tight end, whatever, like, you would have to physically restrain me from calling in for Brock Bowers. But like I would, in the sober light of day, eclipse notwithstanding, would grab my assistant GM and be like, it is your job on draft day to physically restrain me from drafting

Brock Bowers at 10. It's like the get back coach, but for a GM. Yes, because it is, it is fundamentally, you do have to say, you have to, you have have guardrails and you also have to have willingness to leave your guardrails. You also have to be able to like when you have conviction, you don't want the guardrails to be hard and fast. You know, they're bumper lanes and bowling. You can put them up, put them down. But you do want to be able to say as an organization, right, from a top level perspective, we want to make a high likelihood bets. We don't want to be betting on on us being better at evaluating everybody

else, but rather we want to find edges in terms of what positions are most likely to hit, when in the draft do they hit, what's the value in the second contract stuff that we can control, right? where tight end just loses its shine. You bring up like oh, David and Joku and Evan Ingram, the teams that have David and Joku, like Browns obviously kept him and extended him, Daguars go and get him from the Giants, they are happy to have those players. And those players have developed, like Evan Ingram set in records for catch totals, David and Jok who's unbelievable down the stretch last season. It just takes so long to get there. And you're also not going to break into the tier of like, Dals got it in the second round and Mark

Andrews in the third round, Travis Kelsey in the third round. And so you have to be honest by yourself. Yeah. And so again, I am. exactly the guy you're talking about with Brock Bowers where it's like I love him and I want to leave my guardrails for him but you have to be responsible and like if you need a tight end in a corner if you take it a corner in the first round like sight unseen you should be doing that I acknowledge the wisdom of that even though I resent it slightly all right I think that was a yeah I'm trying to right I think that was and I agree with you compliment maybe on the surface there are so we're on the same page there okay listen just you know I got to make sure that I'm not

missing something. You're quick. Sometimes you sneak something in there. I think it's a compliment. Then like an hour after the show, I'm like, wait a minute. Solex said this. I totally misunderstood that and I didn't respond correctly. And then I bring it back up on the following show. So that happened sometimes. Learn that one from my mom. She taught me that. Yeah. We're good on that one. There you go. All right. I will get to my next one here. All right. So my next one. And I think you mentioned early in the show that we're going to get to X eventually. And so these might ping pong off of what. one another because my third take is that the Stefan Diggs trade looks a little different from

the Texans perspective that now than it did when we did when I did the emergency pod with Stephen and Nora last week. So that's my third take. So what happened here? Okay, we talked about all the pros and cons of the trade. Texans. I like the roster team team him with Nico Collins, team him with Tank Dell, C.J. Stroud, offensive line gets healthy. Those things are all still true. However, two days after the trade was made, there is a report. I think ESPN was first. I could be wrong about that. But there is a report that the remainder of his contract beyond 2024 is just ripped up.

Okay. Forget it. One year, $22.5 million deal for Stefan Diggs. That's what the Texans traded for. Now, one of the reasons I like the trade is because it gave the Texans optionality beyond this year. if Diggs was on his existing contract, where you could play him in 2024. And if you liked him, you could say, come on back for 2025. You're already under contract.

You could say, come on back for 2026. You're already under contract. Come on back for 2027. You're already under contract. All that like, I think, you know, it wasn't cheap, but it was, you know, all under $20 million, where if you feel like he's playing well, you say, go ahead. We'll go ahead and pay that. That no longer exists.

The Texans now made this trade for a one. year rental of Stefan Diggs at $22.5 million. Now, could they bring him back after the season? Yes, but they're going to have to come to terms on a brand new contract where I guess they could use the franchise tag. I mean, I don't see that ending well for anybody. The Texans trying to use the franchise tag on Stefan Diggs. And so this is a very interesting situation. I imagine this was part of the terms of the trade, but it was not reported right away. So now what the Texans are banking on is that they're going to get a highly motivated version of Stefan Diggs, which absolutely could be the case because the guy is now playing for a new contract, whether it's

in Houston or somewhere else, but they're losing the optionality to bring Diggs back for two years, for three years, for four years. So this is all about taking a huge swing, giving up a second round pick, paying $22.5 million for one year of Stefan Diggs. And so push comes to shove. I have to say, well, all right, chill, you said all that. Well, would you have done it or not? I think I probably still. I like Steph on Diggs. I like the look at that Texans team.

I think I still do it, but I certainly don't like it as much. I think they lost a little luster given this news that came out two days after. So I haven't heard your take on any of this, Solex. So I'm curious to hear what you think about the contract stuff and also what you think about it overall. Yeah. So Diggs trade breaks when I'm in the airport last week. Come on, man.

It doesn't set a different. That's so frustrating. Yeah. And I listened to the show with you, Stephen and Nora, enjoyed it. I definitely think coming away from that conversation, and then certainly now, as we know a little bit more about the digs money of it all, my main thing is like, okay, we're a little bit over our skis right now on the, on the Texans type. I appreciate how fast he came out of the gate. I loved the, hey, Texans are a Super Bowl contender. Hey, I've been thinking about picking the Texas Super Bowl.

Absolutely, I'm with you. I learned it from watching you, Dad. You won't get that reference. My older listeners will. Okay. But I have heard that phrase before. that's a quote. That's the thing is like I as as a self-proclaimed like early guy on the Texans hype,

I very much want to be on the boat with everybody. But now that this many people are on the boat, the boat's moving a little bit too fast or too much mass. We got to take a little bit off the pedal, off the tank. Right now, Sheal, Fandul, updated odds. The leader in the clubhouse to win the MVP, regular season is plus 650 Patrick Mahomes. Behind him, Josh Allen plus 800. As it should be, understandably so.

third is C.J. Stroud at 10 to 1. All right? He's tied with Joe Burrow at 10 to 1. And then behind him is Lamar, reigning MVP two-time MVP at 11 to 1, Justin Herbert 14 to 1, Jordan Love 14 to 1, so on and so forth. Guys, CJ Stroud should not be tied third favorite for MVP entering the season. That is odd that. Are we sure about that? Yes. And I will tell you why in a moment. Okay. CJ Straff's third. Super Bowl odds. The Texans right now are 7th. They are tied 7th, also with the and Sandy Bengals at 15 to 1. They were behind only the Bills, Lions, Cowboys, Ravens, Chiefs, and 49ers. That one, I don't mind as much.

It's not, I don't think that's as bad. I will say, AFC, man, can be a tough conference again. I don't know about having one, two, three, four, five of the top eight teams all be AFC and one of those teams for the Houston Texans. Pretty rich for my blood. The reason that I think Stroud is too high in the MVP odds and even I would say the Texans are a little bit high in the Super Bowl odds is because while, while they have approached this offseason correctly. Adding

Stefan Deggs was the appropriate aggressive move at this time. I like the De Nico Autry deal. I like the Aziz al-Shayr deal. While I appreciate and understand the intention, I think it was the right move and I endorse these moves, but I would have done if I was running the team. Development is not linear. This is like, you talked about how you, you know, one of your main things to remind teams up right now, if you don't overrate your own scouting, don't be overcome your own scouting.

One of my number one things to remind teams, one of my maxims, my add is development is not linear. It is not this easy. It is not, oh, year one, C.J. Straub, Bobby Sloick, incredible. Oh, Will Anderson. He was so great. Oh, Nico Collins took the leap. Oh, offensive line. I had all these health problems still played great.

Oh, Pastor John Grenard and Sheldon Rankin's and Emily Collins. It wrapped all together. Oh, the linebacker play. All this, everything coalesced for the Texas of the season they did last year. Everybody was contributing, right? That was one of the things that were like, C.J. Stroud was amazing. D'Amico was amazing, but we were always talking about how this player was showing up,

that player was showing up. There's Donald Schultz, Devon Singletary, late down the stretch. They had a wonderful coalescing, which I think speaks to their culture, and it speaks to their leadership. It is a fallacy to believe that you just keep doing that. It'd be great. I would love it.

It would make my job a lot easier. If the good teams just stayed good and the teams are getting better, just kept getting better, but it's not how it goes. Strout, like, and we have tales of this. We have cautionary tales. We have the last few years of Trevor Lauren. We have the last few years of Justin Herbert

where a player dawned on the league, a quarterback played incredible, and we said, this guy's the next guy. And then stuff happens, man. Guys get injured. Players regress. You lose a couple close games on some coin flips.

Lockroom starts to get frustrated. Like the margins in the NFL are so, so, so, so thin. So we saw a very high-tail outcome for the Texans last year. And understandably, aggressively, and justifiably, they are aggressively attacking that high-tail outcome by adding to it. They're not sitting on their laurels.

They're making sure they maximize C-J, a shroud in his rookie window. I think that they're making all the right decisions. I endorse the digs trade wholeheartedly. However, they're not, it's not that easy to say that they're that good just yet. You've got to see it for a second year. You got to see what it looks like when teams are adjusting for it and prepared for it. The big sample league. And so to me, we're all a little bit too, I want to be there with you guys on the Texans. I'm early on the Texans. We're a little bit too far over them right now, in my opinion. Yeah, rookie, rookie seasons can lie to us for quarterbacks. We have seen that. When you were mentioning that list, the guy that really probably would be my cautionary

tale would be like Justin Herbert, the way I felt about him after his rookie season, probably mirrors the way I feel about C.J. Stroud after his rookie season. Now, we've had many discussions about Herbert and the Chargers and why that thing hasn't taken off yet. But when it comes down to, and I agree with you with the team stuff, it's not always linear. There are going to be teams that were good last year that we're going to pick to not make the playoffs next year. And I just can't get over what I saw from the quarterback, and now with the supporting cast, and with an offensive line that even is just a little bit healthier, that puts me in such a good spot from a high floor perspective that I can't shake it.

Now, okay, sometimes you fire off a take at April, and we get to August or September, and you say, all right, I probably went a little bit overboard there. But when you were reading those odds for the Super Bowl teams and the MVP, I, in my head, in my gut, in my heart, I wasn't going, oh, that's, I was like, yeah, okay, maybe. And then I just wanted to ask you where Jordan Love was and where the Green Bay Packers were. Those two teams are just linked on message.

Are just linked for me. Yeah. Linked for me. So we will see, but there you go. I do. Yeah. The thing is like in our particular roles of endorsing teams, projecting teams, making bold predictions, there's no more fun team to go out swinging on than the Houston

Texans, right? Just everything you love that. TJ and Domeco. And honestly, like, the thing that bothers me about the, the, the, the, the, Stefan Diggs, all we had to take his contract down and, and we've got to motivate him in the money thing, dude, that's what you're paying D'emico for. D'emico's the best motivator in the league, man. Domingo's got it. If I believe anything about the Houston Texans, I believe in Domingo Rines, his ability to get a team marching on the same page. So I was like, oh, you don't even need to pay this much to get Stefan Dix motivated. That's what,

that's what you got D'Amico for. So, like, they are so fun to root for it. That's the sort of team you want to go down, swing an on-rise, a team that hasn't aggressive defense, a team that has a rising start quarterback. But it's just, you know, it's April. A lot happens between now and then, and as always, development is not linear. The teams that got better don't just keep getting better. That's not how it works for the league. Yep.

No doubt, no doubt about it. All right. Take a break. We'll come back. We'll get Solax third take, and then I will hit you with the extra part. That was my third take. Oh, that was your third take. We just are.

I have been very clear about the format for this episode. You're not sticking with me. The snake draft is new to me. All right, well, take a break. We'll come back and I'll hit you with my extra point. When you're responding to me, then it's like, all right, is he just responding to my take? Or is this his new take? Did you say this is my third take?

Yes. And when you started your Texan conversation. When you started your Texan thing, you were like, and we're probably going to go into so like he said we were going to get to this. So you knew it was my third take. I was expecting it, but then I missed it. Listen, you see this darkness on my right side? Things are happening in the universe. I can tell the sunlight is less.

I can't wait to go see it. Yeah, all right. So my extra point taken, so like I said, you know, I was going through the top 10 this morning to come up with some takes. And so I'm just going to give you the Capadia mock draft top 10 as of April 8th. And you tell me where I'm a dummy. Okay, here we go. Number one, Chicago Bears, Caleb, William.

Yes, you're on board. Two, if I had to say it right now, as we discussed earlier, I'm going Jade and Daniels for the Washington commanders. But I agree with your take that that one is absolutely open to change in the days ahead. Three, you said you'll think this player fits this team. And I agree with you. New England Patriots, Drake, May. Four, that's where I had the trade earlier. I can't go back and I'll predict something else.

So I'm predicting Minnesota Vikings move up in a trade with the Arizona Cardinals and take J.J. McCarthy. All right. Here's where it gets fun. Number five. We've got another trick. Not for a quarterback. But the Mama Solac.

JETS. Jets. Jets. Jets. Move up to five and take Marvin, Harrison, Jr., in a trade with the Los Angeles Chargers. They say, you know what? We are all in with Aaron Rogers. Aaron Rogers is still calling the shot. We're giving up a future, a 20-25 second, and maybe like a day three pick.

They're thinking, all right, two scenarios. One, Marvin Harrison Jr. is awesome. We make the playoffs. No one will care that we gave up a 20-25 second. Scenario number two, this thing sucks. It all falls apart. We're fired anyway. Let the new GM deal with not having a 2025 second round thing.

So it's a win-win if you are Joe Douglas there. And we have some parameters for this trade because last year the Cardinals moved up from 12 to 6. remember, they gave up number 34 and a fifth round pick. And so here you are giving up a 2025 second. The other thing I'll say is the Chargers new GM, Joe Ortiz, worked with Eric DeCosta, who believes and has spoken very publicly about drafting for volume. And so maybe he says, all right, we got a lot of holes we need to fill on this roster. Let's move back. So the Jets end up with Marvin Harrison Jr. Come on. That would be fun. got to admit that would be fun. All right. Number six, New York Giants take Malik neighbors,

wide receiver, LSU, Tennessee Titans, take Joe Alt, offensive tackle from Notre Dame. It feels like that is, is that one of your fan dual bet. That feels like the one I felt like this is absolutely happened. Tennessee Titans taking offensive linemen is in the books, yes. Oh, wow, it is. Okay, I didn't even know you could bet on that. Number eight, I've got the Atlanta Falcons taking Dallas Turner, Edge from Alabama. Now, this looked like, now you're making weird faces. Beak up. This is on video.

People will watch the videos. Easter eggs for the video folks. All right. Lock it in. Solex face there when I said that one. Now, I do wonder if eight is a spot where a team would trade up for Roma Dunzee because... O'Donzee.

Way cool if it's Roma Dunzee. O'Doonzee. It's a good name. If you feel like the bears are going to draft him at night, maybe you try to jump them, get up to eight, a team like the charge. You know a team that I was like, this team is probably going to trade into the top 10 because they're reckless? The New Orleans Saints.

Like, couldn't the New Orleans Saints just trade up from 14 to 8? Jill, when you have such a well-managed and diverse and healthy roster, it enables you to make such aggressive decision. Yeah, you can be aggressive. What about the Jaguars? Would they move up? Could they move up to the top 10 from 17? I was about to say that if there's a team that moves up for a wide receiver on draft

day, I think it's going to be the Jaguars. Absolutely. I think the Jaguars planned on having Calvin, and they don't, and they feel like they need an actual wide receiver one. So they're going to acquire like the seventh receiver of the last two years or whatever it's been and see if that finally solves the room for them. The only reason I didn't do that is because I feel like Trent bulky, Brian Thomas Jr., if he's sitting for them in the teens,

I'll just be like, we don't need to trade out. This guy is good enough for us. All right, so I've got Falcons taking Dallas Turner Edge from Alabama at 8. I've got the Bears taking Rome O'Dunze. wide receiver Washington at 9 and then at 10 I don't think you're going to like this you tell me what I should have done said I've got the Chargers

taking J.C. Latham offensive tackle with some guard versatility. All right you like that one. Guard versatility from Alabama. Feels like a Harbaugh type player there for them. So there you go. That is my top 10. What did you hate? What didn't you hate?

What stuck out? Where are you listening? Are you already in eclipse mode and you just want to get off the podcast? First of all. I'm already in a clips note and I have been. All right. My eclipse mode has been constant. Secondly, I generally like that.

Falcons at 8, man. I think taking down, people have them, maybe it's Dallas Turner over one of the corners, right, whether it's Terry and Arnold out Alabama or my guy, Quinnian Mitchell out of Toledo. I think it should go corner over edge. I understand the edge need.

I think the corner need is just as big. I do not like it. Do not like Turner? I liked Turner quite a bit more than I thought I was going to like Turner. Turner tested better than I thought I would. Here's my question. If Turner, like, this is going to sound like a dumb question, but it's not.

If Turner was this good, why hasn't he been good? Where's the production? Where's, where's been my takeover games? Where's my high sack seasons, right? Alabama. He had 10 sacks last year.

What are you talking about? Yeah, but you got, in terms of quality sacks, quality wins? Okay. Turner, for me, is like, okay, if, if you have this bill and you have this athleticism,

you're in Alabama for multiple seasons, like, why, like, the rush plan is not good. The, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, one very hot and cold. I would want to know why. Turner, Turner, like, gives me a little bit like hebie-jee-jeeves. I'm a little bit worried about the profile. I would take a lot too before I would take Turner. So I like the corners for the Falcons at 8. You brought up J.C. Latham at 10. Man, tackle two is a tough one to figure out, isn't it? Right? Joe

all it's going one. And then you've heard Tiles Fulaga hype, Oregon State, off its tackle two. Olufoshanu out of Penn State and J.C. Latham out of Bama. Latham is rock steady, dude. Latham is, like, he could go, OT2, O2, O2, O2, O T4, O T5. None of those would surprise me, and at any point, I would say it makes sense. I think he is about as sure of a thing as you're going to get the NFL draft.

He is just so solid, so good, great building, great tape. It's a little lower ceiling than the other guys, but still, I don't have to the line. You don't really need high ceiling. You just need a guy who can start and play for you. So I don't mind lay from it at 10, 10 to the Jets at all.

That doesn't buy me. Okay. All right. There you go. That is my top 10 as of April 8th. All right, so like you want to give your third tape. I'm just kidding. That was a joke.

Yeah, I know. And you didn't even remotely get me. Let me make that very clear. I disagree. Watch the video on the ringer NFL, you too. I do think I got him actually. No, no, no, no. I felt nothing.

All right. Thank you to everyone for listening. We'll have dual threat later this week. And then Solek and I will be back on Friday with more talk. Could be draft talk. Could be stuff happening this week. Who knows where we'll go with that episode. Thank you to Cliff Augustine for producing.

Thank you to Kira. Evans on social. John Rector on video. Check out that video. Additional production supervision by Connor Nevins and Artuna Ramgapal. We will talk to you soon on extra pointing. Must be 21 plus and present in select states. Fandul is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC. Gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler or visit fandul.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia, and Vermont. Call 1-800 next step, or text next step to 533442 in Arizona,

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