The Ringer NFL Show - Trading Odell Beckham Jr., Understanding the Trade Market in the Modern NFL, and an Important Rule Addition | The Ringer NFL Show (Ep. 250)

Episode Date: March 29, 2018

The Ringer's Kevin Clark and Danny Kelly discuss the big rule changes coming out of the league meeting (02:00), Odell Beckham Jr. trade rumors (16:00), and which current players are worth more than two first-round draft picks (30:00). You can find the official Ringer merch store here: http://bit.ly/ringershop Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Commissioners, does your fantasy site make simple league updates harder than they need to be? If so, it's time to try something new. Flea Flickr is a free fantasy sports platform offering easy management, robust customization, lightning fast live scoring, and a handy mobile app. Flea Flickr provides year-round access and you know it's never too soon for fantasy football. Visit fleaflicker.com slash ringer NFL to try out the site design with commissioners in mind. That's F-L-E-A-Flicker.com slash ringer NFL. On today's Ringer NFL show, we're talking about this week's big rule changes,

O'Dell Beckham trade rumors, and what the trade market even is in the modern NFL. But as always, we're brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network, where you can listen to One Shining Podcast with Mark Titus and Tate Frazier to help you prep for this weekend's Final Four. Also, go to the Ringer.com to check out some great content. Titus has a mailbag up. We have an entire staff story, basically figuring out where Odo Beckham should go. And Robert Mays has a piece on Josh Rosen.

So it's a hell of a content week. I'd get there as soon as I can. Now let's go to the show. Welcome to our NFL show. I'm Kevin Clark. Join today by Danny Kelly. Robert Mays is traveling. As am I, though.

I'm in Orlando, Florida for the NFL owners meeting. Danny, you're in Seattle. I am. And it's wonderful. It's all about the owners meetings here. Orlando where every team sends their coach, GM, their owner, obviously, maybe team president, and they're all wearing... Blue.

Extremely vacation-y shirts. It's not just... Everyone talks about Andy Reid wearing vacation gear. I mean, everybody brings it with the Tommy Bahama tops and cargo shorts. I mean, you got Ron Rivera, Reggie McKenzie was bringing. I saw Matt Patricia in some hardcore vacation gear. I don't think it was photographed because he wasn't wearing it during the meetings. I saw that though.

He's the new X Factor for Tommy Bahama shirts. I know. He was wearing like a white golf polo that looked just unusually vacationy. Oh, I saw a different one where it was like this. Oh, you know, he was a man of many outfits. It's a giant black vacation shirt thing. Yeah. So, Danny, we want to talk about the most important thing that come out of those meetings.

aside from the Odell Becker rumors, we're going to get to the O'Dell Beckham stuff in a second. But I want to talk about the rule changes because that has the capability to change football, if applied in a certain way, in an even bigger way than O'Dell Beckham being traded to the Rams, for instance. So if you're not familiar with what happened, the owner is basically snuck in a rule change on Tuesday. And no one was talking about it beforehand. They didn't announce that they were going to be voting on it, but they did it anyway. And the rules that essentially a player who initiates contact with their helmet will be penalized 15 yards and possibly ejected from the game. Obviously, college has similar rules about ejecting players who use their helmet as a weapon essentially.

It's called targeting. The NFL rule we're not totally sure about. And now the biggest problem here is that they essentially pass the idea of the rule, but not the rule itself. They don't know, for instance, how replay is going to work. They don't even know how the rule is going to be applied or even the verbiage. I mean, it is very abstract at this point. They will meet in May the owners and basically hash it out. But I think that there's probably going to be a lot of talk in the coming weeks

about how this is going to change the game and how defense will be played if you can't use your helmet as a weapon. And Roger Goodell basically said coaches have to coach this. And it's going to at least have some impact on the way teams are run. Danny, when you think about this rule in particular, what do you think the fallout is as far as what, we'll be seeing this fall and for fall is to come because you can't use your helmet anymore. I mean, my first impression is that it's going to be a slow process, probably. I mean, obviously in the first year, you know, people are going to have to try and figure out

kind of what it means and, like, what you can get away with and what they're really going to be, you know, calling on the field and all that. And I think, you know, we went through this and you wrote a great article about it this morning, or you wrote it yesterday, I guess, but it published this morning. And it was just, it talked about how. everyone always gets up in arms about these rule changes. Yeah. And, you know, it's kind of just a constant thing that happens in terms of people

are talking about how the sport is changing and getting ruined and all that. I think this is probably going to take a few years to kind of really get, you know, worked out and actually start to make an impact. I think, you know, we saw rules changes where, you know, the big hits over the middle have been kind of, you know, litigated out of the sport or whatever. And I think, you know, you just don't see as many of those anymore. And it's kind of a more rare thing. And those are almost always automatic penalties now.

It's just changed the behavior of the players on the field. It's changed, you know, the way that they approach the game. But it takes a long time. It takes like, I'm guessing I'll take a couple years for this to really kind of affect everything. But, I mean, they have to do it at this point. I mean, they have to start taking these helmet to helmet hits out. You know, they have to take just the head into. thing seriously, you know, from a legal standpoint, from just like the health of the sport going

forward. I think it, I mean, it just people are going to hate it probably, but it makes a lot of sense. They have to start doing this. I'm going to read you a quote, Danny. Yeah. The quote is this. It's becoming more and more flag football, two-hand touch. We've really lost the essence of what real American football is about. Now, there's a lot of quotes this week like that, but this particular quote that I just read off from Troy Palomalu in 2008. Yeah. And what he was complaining about

at that point was basically the policing of helmet to helmet hits and hits on the quarterback. Right. As I wrote this morning, we have a long history of these rules being changed

and nothing happening. Truly nothing happening. You know, concussions are up. They're basically at an all-time high in comparison. sort of the modern era of concussion reporting. And I just think that, I think the NFL has made 47 rule changes since 2002 to try to make the game safer.

And although some things have worked, helmet to helmet hits are still the cause of, I think, half of all concussions. And they still obviously happen all the time. So there's two ways this is going to play out. Number one is it plays out the way everything else plays out, which is that it's applied for like two weeks in September. There's one huge, you know, Monday night game where some guy gets, some star gets thrown out and we talk about it for a week.

And then back October, they're just not calling it. And by November and certainly December and the playoffs, nobody cares. Okay. That has happened to a lot of sort of penalties like this, like sort of targeting ask penalties that have been emphasized in the past. Having said that, there's another option, which is that this one is completely different, that in May they make the language. extremely strict and extremely black and white,

and guys are getting thrown out left and right in September, and everyone's learning to make different tackles in October. I think that is the far less likely scenario. I think that generally, I mean, again, every time this happens, we say it's going to be a game changer. I think it is a little overblown. I think Josh Normans, I don't know how you're going to be able to play the game comment,

kind of misunderstands the point. Sean Payton basically said, this is a posture thing. Right. This is just changing the posture of a tackle. And Roger Goodell wants to be seen as doing something. I think that's part of it. That's such a huge part of the NFL in the rules process. It's like the legal implications.

Yeah, they just have to be doing something. As I just said, they changed the rules 47 times. And so this idea that defense is going to be neutralized or that guys aren't going to be able to hit hard or anything. I mean, we've just been over this. We've just been over this. Yeah, I mean, and there's a groundswell kind of of, of talk about the quote rugby style tackle,

which could potentially help mitigate the concussion problem. I mean, the concussion problem isn't going to go anywhere because, I mean, there's research into just the, you know, the sub like not the big hits necessarily are causing concussions. It's like guys just running into each other when they're not even hitting heads or potentially, you know, the cause of some of these problems. And so, I mean, it's a physical sport.

I don't think the concussion problem is going to go away. at any time soon, but I think that the idea, and like you said, is they have to do something. The idea is to try to help mitigate it, try to make, you know, those big helmet-to-helmet hits not a part of the game anymore. It's never going to be not a part of the game ever, but they have to try and, you know, just change players' behavior, change the way they tackle. And, you know, the rugby-style tackle where it's all about your shoulder, it's all about, you know, keeping your head up or whatever when you're coming in and trying to tackle.

and all that. I think that is something that could be, you know, something that wouldn't, it's not going to, like, ruin the sport in my mind. And the Troy Paul Maloo quote is always kind of interesting because I think this kind of comes down to really what you get out of football. So it really does depend on, like, who's, you know, it's the point of view of the person that, that's, you know, like, whether they think this is going to ruin the sport. For me, I don't watch the sport necessarily to see big hits.

I mean, that's part of it. But like, for me, I really enjoy the chess match and the schematics and the way that, you know, coaches and players kind of try and like outsmart each other and beat each other. And just like the beauty of that type of strategy, I think, is what I really love about football. So for some people, it's going to be the, you know, the bone crushing hits or whatever. And I guess if those people, I could see them probably trying to, you know, kind of tuning out as this thing goes forward. But, I mean, again, like you said, it is a really long process. I don't think this is going to have a huge impact right away.

I think it's going to be something like, you know, check back in like five or ten years and see how it's changed to sport. But for now, we're not going to even have any returns until January when we see the concussions numbers for 2018. Right. And as far as how safe everything got, okay? But I think generally this is going to be a topic of the offseason, maybe the topic of the offseason save for Beckham if he gets traded.

But I think in May you're going to see an uptick in things. I think that in training camp, it's going to be a huge story. How are coaches preparing for this? What are they teaching, et cetera, et cetera? But again, we've seen this so many times that I'm just not ready to say anything's going to change. Right. Except maybe one or two big time ejections early in the season. Let me.

I just go ahead. I was just going to ask, like, do you think that over, you know, you said, what was it, 47 rule changes over the last whatever years? And my question is, do you think the sport has gotten safer? Because obviously the concussion numbers are up. But you have to look at the fact that there's a lot more awareness about concussions and a lot more self-reporting. So that skews the numbers. Like, obviously, if people are much more aware that they're getting concussions and are much more aware of sort of the fallout behind, you know, concussions and all that, it's going to, like the reporting of it is going to go up. I don't know if necessarily there are actually more concussions happening.

You know what I'm saying? So do you think it's safer? Okay. Do I think the game is safer? Yes. because just there are certain hits, egregious helmet-to-helmet hits that basically automatically cause concussions

have been essentially legislated out of the game. You see one or two of them each year, and every time they happen, it's a mini-scandal. The guy usually gets suspended. And so the fact that those were somewhat commonplace 15 years ago, yes, means the game is safer. I think it's much safer to be a quarterback.

I still think there's real huge problems with the way quarterback hits are officiated from the quarterback standpoint. and the pass rusher standpoint, but that's another topic for another time. Is the game getting safer? Generally, yes. Slowly but surely, I mean, the reporting issue to me, which you bring up, and I talked to people a lot about that.

And I think that when you look at the fact that concussions were up 13% year over year, is that reporting? No, because it's not like there were people in 2016 who didn't know what a concussion was and did in 2017. I think the concussion numbers are way up from, or concussion reporting is way up from 20, 25 years ago because we just didn't know the risks back then. And guys are self-reporting because they won a longer career or something like that.

But I don't think in the modern era, the last five years, I don't think there's been a massive uptick in reporting numbers. I really do think that the concussions were just up. And listen, when they had that release in January, the NFL was pretty upset. The doctor, Dr. Allen Zills, he was upset. This was not them chalking. up to, I mean, even though they made the point, yes, there is more reporting, they were upset

because this is, concussions going up at this point is a fairly bad thing for the league. Yeah, that's interesting. After 47 rule changes and now 48. Yeah, I mean, that's a great point. That's definitely really interesting. I kind of always, I guess that changes my thinking a little bit about it, honestly, because I did kind of just look at it like, oh, well, they're just reporting it more, it's more awareness and everything.

But that's certainly concerning. And the other thing that kind of goes into this, and you wrote about, this too is the kickoffs thing are they going to right just completely eliminate kickoffs from the game it i think that's another kind of you know layer to this that could be interesting going forward without a doubt and and that's you know kickoffs i think cause five times more concussions than a normal play a normal play from scrimmage so i think if the concussion and we'll call it a crisis because it's been a crisis for for three decades it is yeah if if that continues and they can get rid of a huge chunk of concussions just by getting rid of the of the kickoff they're going to do it that that's

that can happen next year it's not going to impact 2018 um maybe they do it maybe they announce it this season so that special teams coaches can get ready i think it'd be really unfair to teams if they did it next spring at the owners meetings because you've already signed a kicker right or you're already doing draft prep i mean i think if they're going to get rid of kickoffs they have to give a huge huge runway because it really does change the game. Yeah. I mean, they're already ramping it up.

I mean, kickoffs are way, you know, way less impactful than they used to be. I feel like, you know, just with the way that they move the kickoff line. Didn't teams have,

didn't teams used to have, remember like the Colts had a kickoff specialist? Oh yeah. I mean, 15 years ago. And that's the thing that kind of sucks about this is some players who do bring value as like a kick returner, are going to either not have jobs or it's just going to make them less valuable

to teams, obviously if you don't have that sort of versatility or whatever. And the specialists are probably going to slowly kind of like go away. So I understand that argument, but then on the flip side, I mean, if a couple of guys have their salaries lessened or some guys work the way out of the lead because they were only returners, you know, is that a tradeoff for the concussion rate dropping severely? I would say so. Yeah. I mean, if I'm the union, obviously you want to protect jobs, but you also need to protect the health and safety of your players. So do I think at some point they'll get rid of the kickoff

and I think it'll be in the next five years. It could be sooner than we maybe think it is. But again, I just think the runway is such that they're going to give them a little bit more time. But whatever. Okay, Danny. Let's get to the more fun part. The owner's meetings were dominated on the field by trade rumors.

Trade wins that Odell Beckham might be on the move. Now, the interesting thing about the owners meeting is, and this happened a lot. You know, like, NFL executives, coaches, GMs, whatever, and owners are a lot less busy than you think because you'd see like, you'd be see like less Sneed or Sean McVeigh and they're just in the lobby of the hotel, like, ready to go to the pool or something. This is idle hands, huh? And then you'll read on the phone that, like, they signed Sue.

And you almost think, you think it's always like draft day or something where they're always huddled in a room and it's like no they're just in a lobby they're just hanging out and so it was pretty fun and so you get that allowed with beckham where it's like to the outside world you read these breathless reports oh he might be on the you know might be on the market for two first whatever and then you'll just see like dave getleman just strolling through the lobby just sort of hanging out and you expect him to be hunkered down in some bunker you know the red phone next to him with a bunch of maps and you know he's like churchill and darkest hour right and and and It's just like, that's what you imagine him doing, and he's just there.

So, pouring over scouting reports. Anyway, the buzz about the trades were kind of less than you'd imagine there. I talked to a couple of guys, see if they wanted to trade for Beckham. Most of them decided that two firsts was too rich for their blood unless you're actively trying to win the Super Bowl or something. So, so Danny Kelly, you wrote about this for the ringer.com, but let's hear it. Where do you want O'Dell Beckham Jr. to go? Well, there's a number of places I think it would be really fun to see him go.

I chose the Chargers because, number one, I don't want them to go to the Rams because I'm sick of the Rams bullshit right now as a CX fan. The Rams are back on their bullshit. They are, man. No, I actually really like what the Rams are doing in the soft season. I think it could be, it's one of those boom or bust type of things where it could just go horribly wrong, but it also could be awesome to watch. Sure. But yeah, so I chose I chose the Chargers. Number one, it's in L.A.

I think Beckin would be fun in L.A. You know, he's kind of got that star power. But I also think, you know, if the Chargers want to go for a Super Bowl, you know, while they still got Philip Rivers, I think they do need to kind of make some sort of, you know, big, big move like what we see in the Rams do and all these other teams do to win Super Bowls recently. Getting Beckham opposite Keenan Allen would be a lot of fun. I think that he and I think that, I think that, um, I think that. Just the style of passer that Philip Rivers is would mesh while with Beckham in terms of just get him the ball and let him do his thing. And then they've already got kind of like a solid defense.

They have like what looks like a championship kind of core on defense. And so to me that looks like a nice landing spot. Obviously they'd have to do some stuff with their salary cap to kind of fit him in and get him a big contract extension and all that. But, you know, if you give up a first and a third for him, I think, I don't know if, you know, obviously the Giants are going to take that. but to me that's kind of worthwhile. You're getting a premium talent. And maybe you don't have to, that way you don't have to wait around for Mike Williams

kind of emerge. It could be a couple years. Who knows? And that gives them a chance to be, you know, really, really dangerous offense. I mean, we've seen what Beckham can do to a mediocre offense.

He can turn it into a good offense. So I don't know. I think that would be a lot of fun. I think, you know, just give the chargers a chance to kind of go out and win a Super Bowl before Philip Rivers retires, essentially. So I went to a Chargers game last year.

It could help. Yeah, could help with the whole home game thing. Before we get to the football thing, I just want to talk from a marketing perspective. Right. Not even a marketing, just from a relevant standpoint.

The Chargers have to do something. Right. They have to do something. They have, I mean, they are so behind the Rams in the L.A. market. It's not even flying. Totally.

Yeah. They have a niche, you know, maybe, southern the southern part of L.A. as far as the South Bay, as far as Orange County, like maybe they have a foothold there. But they need something because the Rams are stockpiling interesting characters, an interesting coach, an interesting stadium development. I know the charges will be part of that, but they're not driving the bus. And so the chargers need to do something and quick. And Odo Beckham would be that. Now, everything you said is exactly right,

give Philip Rivers a chance to win a Super Bowl. That offense is really interesting to me. That defense is fun as hell. There are very few defenses. In fact, maybe you can probably count on one hand the amount of defenses that I enjoy watching more than the San Diego Chargers. And one of them, oddly enough, is the Rams

who play a little bit north of them. And so if you give up pick 17 and pick up, pick 84, I think if I'm the Chargers, I absolutely do that. I mean, what the way, and this is kind of another big philosophy kind of question, but like teams are slightly less, they're slightly devaluing, I think, draft picks these days. I mean, the volatility of a first round draft pick, I mean, we saw what happened with the, with the Chargers last year. Mike Williams, you know, we don't really know yet what his kind of like upside is. And so when you get a proven playmaker, like Beckham, a guy that is an all pro talent, one of the best receivers in the game, I think, I mean, I mean, I mean, a first round picket, that's worth it to me.

I don't know how teams are approaching this, but for me, that's a good trade. Obviously, there's risk involved, but there's risk with every draft pick, too. You know, it's interesting to me, just before we get more into which team should trade for him, let me ask you this. If you're the Giants, do you trade them?

No. No. No. Not at all. No. You know, it was interesting to me, Zach Moore, who writes for over the cap and does a nice job

writing about how teams spend their money and basically the strategies around it. One of the things, he was on Twitter this morning, we were tweeting back and forth a little bit. And he was talking about why the Odell trade would be such a head scratcher. And one of the big reasons is that soon you're going to go cheap at quarterback. Because Eli is going to be on his way out. You're going to have a first-round quarterback, or you're going to have some other young guy,

and you're not going to be paying 25% of your salary. cap, whatever it is to a quarterback, like a lot of teams, you're going to be paying, what, six, seven million to a guy? You can afford O'Dell Beckham. You're not going to be, you're not going to be capped out. He's exactly the type of quarterback's best friend that you want, too. He's the kind of guy who can make, he gave him the ball. He made Eli Manning. Danny, Danny, have you watched Giants football in the last three years? I mean, I try not to, but yes. To be clear, I'm not saying he's made Eli's entire career, that's obviously, you know, not true. The timeline doesn't match up.

You won two Super Bowles without O'Dell Beckham. But if there's no O'Dell Beckham, Eli Manning is probably done in New York already. Yeah. If he had some crappy receivers, if he had a crappy core of receivers, Eli would have been running out of town maybe two years ago. I think there's an argument made about that.

I mean, um, I mean, he had O'Dar Beckham. Barnwell posted the stats where it was like with Beckham and without Beckham. They were stark, like insanely stark. I mean, even if, even if Beckham comes back in full health and plays 16 games, there's an argument that they should just draft rows in it to or somebody like that.

And I think they might. Oh, yeah, absolutely. I think they might. I mean, this idea they should just build around Eli's is a little ridiculous. I, yeah, no, I don't think they should trade him. I mean, I've been, yeah, I'm clear in my mind about that. You don't trade a talent like that. I mean, obviously, you know, we don't know what,

goes on behind the scenes, but to me, it's just ridiculous. Okay. Megan Schuster, the great Megan Schuster in this ringer piece, where Shadotelo Beckham go, floated the San Francisco 49ers. Yeah. They have the ninth pick and the 74th pick in this draft. They still have a ton of cap space, even though they signed Jimmy Garoppolo. Is he counting $37 million against cap this year?

I think they're trying to get him out. I think they're trying to get out in front of it or whatever. Yeah, no, I know because they had $100 million in cap space. Right, right. I wish I counted $37 million since the cap. So they're going to have the cap space, both because of the way Gropolo's contract is structured and the fact they just have endless amounts of cap space.

And they got a lot of rookies on the team too, or guys on the rookie contract. From a football perspective, Garoppolo and Beckham, yo. That would be fun. And it's a big market, right? Odell would like that. Well, there's a lot of excitement around the 49ers again right now.

So it seems like it's kind of like the Rams deal. I mean, you know, strike while the iron's hot. And this team, I think the 49ers in general, have had to work pretty hard over the last few years to kind of win back their fans because there was just this like three or four year, you know, stretch where they were firing their coach every year. And it was just terrible.

And everyone hated Jed York and all this stuff. But like he's back, kind of, you know what I mean? And so... Jed York is back? Well, yeah, and the whole franchise. I mean, really. And so... I just love that your takeaway from the resurrection in San Francisco is that Jed York is back.

I think he's okay. Well, I don't know. That's not my first take. I know. Did you see that he and Richard Sherman had to unblock each other on Twitter? That's just awesome. Yeah, I love that. I just,

I missed Richard Sherman blocking Jed York the first time. Well, didn't York block him too? Yes. But how do you wait, but how do you, can you block someone if they've already blocked you? I don't know. that's a good question. I don't block. I'm mute. I've never blocked anyone in my life. Yeah, me neither. Well, I might have like one or two, but yeah. What's a point? There's no point to it. You're just, you're just giving someone the satisfaction of being blocked. Yeah, you're feeding their hate. I don't know, yeah. I don't like it.

But, Danny, no one hates you. Oh, there's people that hate me. Speaking of 49ers fans. I don't know if they hate me. I don't know if they hate me anymore. When is Richard Sherman going to block you, Danny? I'm actually yeah because I've always wondered I think I did have I just in Brit blocked me back in the day of the Seahawks Center I think he he blocked the he blocked my old Twitter account he doesn't block me anymore but um you know there was the he went around and blocked a whole bunch of Seahawks fans that were talking trash I guess and I got I got blocked if we did a power rankings on in terms of the dramatics on on social media I think the Seahawks would be up there. I mean, obviously the Richard Sherman trade you know got or

really, sorry, not trade, got reported or started by Jeremy Lane on Twitter or whatever, doing some vague thing. And it's like, my first reaction was like, this is going to end up nothing because it's always some random like sub-tweet from Seahawks players to each other

or to fans or to whoever to Russell Wilson. You know, it's like there's always this sub-tweeting happening on the redskins. The redskins are also extremely online. You should do an online rankings. Like, who's the most online team? Who's the most online team? It definitely was the Seahawks. Yeah, I would agree. It might be the Redskins now. I'm trying to think. I would read that.

I would definitely read that. All right, coming up, we're going to have a breakdown, jumping off the O'Dell thing a little bit, a breakdown of who's even worth two first round picks in the NFL in 2018. But first, a quick break. If you're an entrepreneur, a small business owner, or even if you have a side gig, let me introduce you to Grasshopper, the entrepreneur's phone system. Grasshopper lets you run your business from your cell phone while keeping your business in personal lives separate. Choose from their huge inventory of local, toll-free, or vanity, toll-free numbers. Simply forward your new number to your mobile phone and start taking calls immediately. Whether you are in an office, in your car, or outrunning errands, Grasshopper's iPhone and Android apps help you stay connected to your customers.

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These are limited run items and will not last long once they are gone. They are gone. Again, check out the ringer.com slash shop to pre-order your official Ringer merchandise today. You can also find the link to the Ringer web store in the podcast description. Okay. Danny. Yo.

So I tweeted something yesterday and it was based on informed speculation, right? I was talking to someone in the league, and they were saying, you know, this Odell thing could be a little overblown, especially the report that the price is two first-round picks. And the point this person was making, which is a valid one, is that almost, almost anyone in the NFL is available for two first-round picks. Right. And so that got me thinking.

Put it out on Twitter, got some interesting responses, but I wanted to talk to you, my smartest football fan friend. You and May is tied. Number one, number one A, number one B. Fair enough. Good, good. If you were the Cleveland Browns, we're just going to start with the Browns here. If you're the Cleveland Browns and you package one and four,

you call all 32 teams, 31 teams, you can't call yourself, 31 teams. Right. And say, here's one in four. What's your best offer? Who are you not getting? Who is off the table? Oh, man.

One in four, two is like super high. Because here's the thing. Here's the thing. If you're trading two first round picks, but they're going to be, it's like the chargers, right? It's going to be 17. It's going to be 17.

And next year it's going to be 15, right? Well, the bills, just like the bills this year. They've got what, 12 and 22? 12 and 22. exactly right. But let's focus on the Browns here, because I think that you get too into the nuances of it if you're doing 12 and 22. Okay. So here's, I'll give you an example. If you called the Raiders about Derek Carr, and this is a 12 and 22 question. If you called the Raiders about Derek Car, you call John Gruden and say, we'll give you 12 and 22 for Derek Carr. What happens?

I think he would probably be on the table for that. Maybe. I bet he would. I bet he would. they at least have a meeting about it. Totally. They would consider talking about it. No, they would talk about it. Yeah. They would move beyond considering talking about it and talk about it. And my guess is that Gruden...

They would actually talk about it. I bet Gruden would probably do it based on the circumstances. Yeah. Based on the circumstances. I think I agree with that. Okay. So give me... This is not going to be a complete list.

We didn't do the entire league. But off the bat, if you're packaging one and four, you're the Browns, calling all 31 teams, who's off the table, in your opinion? Who do teams call back on and say you can have anybody but blank? I mean, the bidding starts at Aaron Rogers. You're not going to get Aaron Rogers. That was my first thought, is Aaron Rogers.

He's the only one I actually feel. He might be the only one I actually feel pretty confident about it. Because then I think the next person. I think Rogers is the only person in the NFL they don't have a meeting about. Right. Do you get what I'm saying? If you called Brian Guttenkerson said, Aaron Rogers for one and four,

I think maybe Brian doesn't even tell anybody. Right. You know what I'm saying? He doesn't even running up the flagpole. Right. The second person I thought of, and I'm not super confident about this, but I thought of Carson Wentz,

just based on his age and, you know, potential there. Right, exactly. Because the Eagles would be trading also his contract, which is very valuable to them. Right. Right. And then from there, I mean, it's kind of, there's a whole bunch of guys that are kind of in that second tier that I think that people probably listen to the, to the offers and talk about it, like you said, but probably wouldn't pull the trigger on it.

I mean, a couple guys like, you know, Russell Wilson, John Watson, Dak Prescott came to mind, though I'm not as confident about that. I bet, I bet, I bet there's, I bet there's a scenario, even though DAC is insanely cheap. I mean, one and four. that's a team building that's a team building gift right you would get someone like darn old you have someone like darnold and then you get maybe chubb

somebody like that I mean that's pretty good that's pretty good I agree with you I don't think do the sea I don't think the Cocks do it probably not I would say

it seems like especially after kind of all the moves that have happened over the last like month or month or two it seems as though they're basically building around him. Yeah. He's also really freaking good. I think DAC is really good. I don't want Cowboy fans.

Even though there's a lot of Cowboy fans who oddly hate Dak. Right. I can't get. Are those the Romo? Are those of the Romo? I don't know. We've talked about this on the pod before Mays and I. Cowboys Twitter is just too large and unwieldy,

so I never know how they feel about something. Like Seahawks Twitter, I know exactly how they feel about everything. They hate Derek Carr and Andrew Locke for some reason. They love Russell Wilson And they're just insanely mad About the offensive line all the time Like I got it I got Seahawks Twitter

Cowboys Twitter Cowboys Twitter a little too large To have any read on them There's yeah there's too many factions I don't think they're organized There's too many factions Yeah There's too big a fan base

Okay Yeah So any non-quarterbacks So the first non-quarterback That came to mind is Aaron Donald Right Is there another one I mean Von Miller maybe?

But wait, but let's talk. No, I think, I think one and four gets Yvonne Miller. Yeah, and Aaron. Especially on that contract. And who? I think Aaron Donald would probably, if you could get one and four. They had a very drawn out and public negotiation with Aaron Donald. Didn't shut the training camp last year.

They're going to have to pay him a lot of money. If you get Chubb and, and by the way, by the way, you could trade out of one. If you're the Rams and you want to stick with golf, you could. trade out of one. This is just an interesting thought experiment to me. I kind of love this idea. So, Matt Ryan, yes? I think he would be on the table.

I think he goes. Man, that would be crazy. But yeah, I mean, for one in four, too, like, that is, that's a huge haul. So. So here's the deal. The last quarterback to be traded for two first round picks and a non-draft day trade was Jake Cutler. And there's a couple of things you have to remember. Number one, that was a much different era. GMs were much different. They were a lot less smart. We didn't really, it was in

the old CBA. So picks were, picks were a lot more expensive. I mean, if you ended up with the first pick, it was almost a, almost a problem because you just sometimes have to pay those guys $70 million. The roster building dynamic back then was totally different. And then beyond that, we don't remember how good and how well thought of Jake Cutler was. I mean, he was a young quarterback with a ton of promise. He was Josh Allen before Josh Allen. What just happened? He was not Josh Allen before Josh Allen.

The idea of Jacob. No, he was well thought of. He was well thought of. He had success in the NFL, yes. Exactly right. Exactly right. So I think Donald is the only non-quarterback where it would, they would maybe say no.

Right. maybe say no. The Rams might say no. I would put it at 50-50. I don't know enough. Yeah, there's no other, is there another more dominant defender than him that doesn't have some sort of concern, you know?

Like JJ Watt was dominant, but he's got a bad problem. Here's one that popped up. Here's one that popped up a lot. Jalen Ramsey. That's tough because this kind of goes to the philosophical question of how important in the outside corner is. in terms of just how dominant can you be from an outside cornerback position.

Obviously, he's a really good player, but I don't know. It's tough because there's a lot of good corners out there, but is the distance above all those other good corners in terms of his elite status worth two first round picks? It could be. I think they'd probably trade him. I think so, too. Now, a couple times guys like Alvin Kamara came up, that's running backs. No.

And even though Alvin Kamara is one of favorite players in the league, Mickey Looms and Sean Payton would help Kamara pack if they were offered one and four for Alvin Kamara. Okay? I would say, a lot of people said Antonio Brown oddly, which I also don't believe. I believe the Steelers would trade Antonio Brown for one and four. Yes, agreed. And a couple times Breeze and Big Ben came up. they're so old though.

I understand that. I mean, I think, I don't think people took in contract stuff and all that. I think they were just saying, these guys are so valuable. I just think, and this is the point I wanted to make with this segment, is when we're talking about O'Dell Becker being available to first John Bix, even though I believe there's a pretty good chance he's going to be traded, and Adam Schaefter has reported and predicted he will be traded.

By the way, a first and a third was Adam Schaeffer's prediction, and Adam Schaefter is one of the best in the game. game. So I, you can pretty much take that to the bank. Yeah, he doesn't make these things willy-nilly. No. And so I think the idea is that even O'Dell Beckham might not command two firsts. Exactly. Because it's, that's a, that's a huge, huge cost. Yeah. I mean, they've spent a lot. The Browns passed on Deshawn Watson. That's why they have two fifth round, top five picks. Yeah. Danny.

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