The Ringer NFL Show - “Unpopular Opinions Show” - Watt Can Wait, Kirk Cousins Fate, and Dallas Going Backwards (Ep. 118)

Episode Date: July 21, 2017

The Ringer’s Robert Mays and Kevin Clark share some skepticism about young starting quarterbacks (04:30), explain why JJ Watt will never be the same (15:30), and tell you why this year’s leading receiver isn’t named Odell, Julio, or Antonio (21:00). Then, Danny Kelly joins the show to predict the downfall of Kirk Cousins (32:00). Finally, Mays and Clark take aim at America’s beloved Dallas Cowboys (38:45) and the entire NFC East. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome. It's the Ringer NFL show. Part of the Ringer Podcast Network. I'm Robert Mays. And joining me in the line. It's Kevin Clark. Kevin, how are you? I'm doing all right watching OJ's parole hearing. Good. I'm doing great, too, because I didn't screw up that intro the first time we did it. I feel really good. Today's going to be awesome. I'm glad you're feeling good about it. We got one week till training camp starts. Summer's over. Yeah, we got one week till training camp. And obviously, you know, when news starts, when we really dig into the season, we're going to get a little bit more into the nitty-gritty.

but right now we're continuing kind of the big picture shows that we've done so far over the last month. And this is the unpopular opinions podcast. Hell yeah. We're going to talk about some stuff that may seem a little off the wall, may come as a surprise to people. We're also going to have Danny Kelly on a little bit. Danny kind of started this podcast last week by talking about how good Ted Ginn was going to be in New Orleans. We're going to try to have some unpopular opinions as the name of the show is,

but nothing will be as unpopular as Danny Kelly's. Ted Ginn would be good. opinion. They try as we might. It is impossible. Yeah, he's already set the bar out of a place that's just not, we're not going to reach it. We are such a fractured country on social media and all that stuff. And the one thing everyone but Danny Kelly can agree on is a Tedkin will not be good in 2017. That is the one uniting for us in America right now. All right, Kevin, this was kind of your baby. I know this was an idea that you really wanted to do. So why don't you just kind of lay out what unpopular opinions are as we're defining it?

Yeah, I mean, I think the ringer is sort of built on on. popular opinions, going against conventional wisdom. Our boss, Bill Simmons, he loves to come out with opinions that no one else is thinking about. And things like, are we sure he's good? And so for us, I think it was important to get out ahead of that stuff because people were going to start with the sort of hot-takey stuff in August and September. And the one thing I want to emphasize that these are not hot takes. Hot takes to us, and when we had this discussion yesterday, sort of what is a hot take. And it made my brain hurt just discussing what a hot take was.

But I think the crux of a hot take is that it's not informed. And it's not no one, you didn't call any scouts about it, or you've never heard a GM say it, or you're just sort of pulled it out of thin air. That's a hot take to me. Or it's just to provoke debate for the sake of debate. Yeah, you're going to incite. That's my thought, is that you're going to incite. Maybe it's not something that you actually believe.

You're saying it to get a rise out of somebody else. It's not something that, you know, to your core you think is true. These are the hills that we're willing to die on. We believe the things that we're saying in this. It is, to paraphrase George Costanza, it is not a hot take if you believe it. That's how I feel. All right. So we're going to do a couple of 2017 specific ones.

We'll talk some players. We'll talk some coaches. And then we're also going to just going to get to teams and their outlook and just the league in general. Some stuff that is more trend-based isn't necessarily tied to what's going to happen this fall, but just some stuff that's kind of been percolating and on our minds about the sport as a whole. Right. Exactly. I mean, we have, we sit around probably more than most people just thinking about football in the off months, and now we have these opinions built up. I mean, I just sit around. I mean, I have so many dumb football thoughts in like May that I'm

so glad when July and August come around so I can just get them out into the world. Yeah, it's really nice. I try to bury everything I say right or just utter from, May until August 1st. I never wanted to see the light of day again because it's usually horribly wrong. Right. Yeah. I mean, the problem with doing an unpopular opinion podcast is that now it exists and people are going to listen to it and go back. Hey, man, if you survive last summer, you can do anything. You're like the Terminator at this point. I've told you this story, but I'll tell the listener. In February, I was going to the combine and someone came to me in the airport and they told me that their boss had told them to listen to all.

of the top 10 position podcast last summer and to catch up with them sort of binge as an offseason project this off season. And so I was like, oh, that's great. It's great to hear. And then the guy just stares at me for like 10 seconds because he wants you to apologize. I don't know what it was. It was just like, we just looked at each other. And then I realized what he was thinking. And then I like, oh, yeah, I kind of screwed that Annie Dalton thing up, huh? And then that broke the the tension. So it's become now an unspoken thing with most people. It's gone from being spoken about all the time I mentions to just everyone is aware that I once said, Andy Dalton was the fifth best quarterback in the NFL and I ranked Aaron Rogers behind him.

All right. So let's get into these. Your first one has a lot to do with a topic we've discussed consistently over the shows we've done so far. Just a young group of quarterbacks with Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz, those guys, and what their outlook is here moving forward. You know, I've been sort of fascinated with the topic of the next generation of quarterbacks for a long time because we are blessed. I don't think we think about it enough with this golden generation of quarterbacks. I think you've seen a lot of what we would have in the past called once-in-generation talents kind of come together at the exact same time.

It's really a great time to be football fan. Whether that's Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, you know, even guys like Philip Rivers, you go down the line, Ben Rothensberger, and then, of course, Aaron Rogers. It all kind of aligned, right? I mean, it became a perfect circumstance. If any of these guys played in the 70s or 80s, they would have been living gods, right? And they all came together. Now, there's a million reasons they all came together, whether that's quarterback

gurus, whether that's extra practice time, whether that's the rules. I mean, certainly the rules, and we'll get to that in a second. But, I mean, there's a million reasons. But, by the way, Manning, Brady, those guys were pretty good before the rules changed as well. So for me, I was reading Warren Sharpe's Football, 2017 Guide, great book, tons of great info, as you say, very extensive. and he was talking about the next generation of quarterbacks, and I realized then, I mean, I've always felt this way,

there's going to be a huge drop-off when this sort of late 30s generation retires. Because as Sharp points out, there are zero quarterbacks who are 27 or younger who've posted three straight seasons of over 90 pass a rating. And they've been wildly inconsistent. guys like Cam Newton, Andrew Luck. I mean, Russell Wilson's obviously been incredible, but the consistency of his predecessors is not there as far as statistics go. Obviously, Carr and Mary Od are on the way up, but they haven't gotten there yet.

And he goes back to 10 years ago. And his point was basically that the generation that's dominating at age 37 and 38, they were dominating at 26 and 27. And so I think what's interesting to me is those quarterbacks have not come up and own the league yet. they're letting essentially, you know, some of every good post-age 33 season has happened in the last five years. And there hasn't been a young quarterback who's really come up and grab the league by the horns. And what I'm fascinated by is just the sense that maybe there's going to be a drop off. Maybe we've overrated all of the good quarterbacks.

And, you know, maybe there's a huge, huge hole to fill in three or four years. Here's what I'll say. And I think that's a really good point. And with the younger guys, I don't know if they've developed into those players yet. Even Jack Prescott, I feel like we have, we anointed him very quickly as the next guy and whatever. But we talked so much. In one of the best positions in NFL history. Exactly.

And we talked so much about that in the last couple shows, just how much support system matters. I think he's a very good quarterback, but it's one season in a perfect situation. With the guys that you talked about, I think that Wilson and Luck are there as a development. talents, but for whatever reason, kind of outside circumstances have torpedoed them along the way to have that just linear trajectory. With luck, it's been injuries. And you never saw this with Manning with Brady. I mean, it was one of those things where Brady missed an entire season, Manning missed entire season later, but they were never dinged up. They never missed big stretches like luck has. It's not his fault. He's an incredibly talented quarterback, but there's just never been a stretch

where he's been able to settle in as the version he is right now. I also think part of that generation doesn't protect itself as well as the older generation. I mean, I think, you know, luck runs. He likes getting hit. He's talked many times about how he likes getting hit and that that sort of gets him into the game. There are so many things about the spread offense that I think are overrated. Obviously, luck is not a spread guy. I want to emphasize that.

But there are a lot of spread guys who are younger. And one of the hallmarks that spread offense is you get hit a lot. The protection schemes are not there. And so these guys are used to taking a lot of hits. And so I just feel like there's a, there is maybe we're saying, okay, there's some outside circumstances. But on the other hand, like, they got to stay healthy. We talk about it all the time.

Health is a skill. He doesn't help himself a lot, but also a lot of the elements involved with that team haven't helped him either. Their offensive line has been a disaster at part at times since he's been there. And the offense and the system is also designed to push the ball down the field. He gets hit a lot. but they really like going vertical and you're going to get hit when you do that. That's never something that Manning or Brady had as a tenant of their offense.

There was a lot of just getting rid of the ball very fast. I agree with you. To be clear, the point about getting hit is not exclusive to luck at all. I'm talking more about the spread guys. I mean, Cam Newton is injured again this off season. Ron Navarre wants to get the ball out of his hands quicker and maybe have him run less. So I think there needs to be a coaching change. He's been running less.

I mean, that's been something we've seen already. They've moved away from that. I mean, I think he ran two times fewer per game last year, but that's still a significant amount. That's true. I mean, he's always going to move the ball. I mean, when he takes off, he does it well. They don't do as many design runs for him anymore.

That's what I'm saying. Sure. The last point on this, essentially, I'll go back to Sharpe's research, which was great, essentially 10 years ago when this current elder generation was dominating at age 26 and 27, there were really only two old quarterbacks who were crushing it. That was Brett Farve and Kurt Warner. and now there are just so many of those, I just really worry about what the league looks like in five years.

And Kurt Warner barely counts. I mean, when you don't have any reps until you get to a certain age. No, I'm just saying he didn't have to play for the first five years of what would have been his career. I get that. A lot more throws and a lot less hits. Yeah. All right. Give me your quarterback unpopular opinion.

Mine is specific to this season. And I don't know how unpopular it is. I feel like there's kind of been a groundswell about this. I feel like Sam Bradford was really good last year. And he was put into a situation. Mr. All-Time record for completion percentage? That doesn't, I don't, I'm not really concerned about that. Completing 71% of your passes when you throw 80% of your passes,

five yards past the line of scrimmage, that's not as important to me. I just feel like he was able to sustain that passing offense in a way he shouldn't have been able to last year, considering the infrastructure he was playing it. They broke the record since 2000 for the most adjusted games lost on an offensive line. It was 57.2. That's an excellent football outsider stat, by the way. I don't know how you calculate that statistic, but I could assure you before I heard that

line that the Vikings held the record for games lost from the offensive line. So they explained it on the site. It's very useful. So they had 57.2 adjust the games lost on the offensive line. The gap between them in Houston was about 24 games. That's the, Houston was 31st. That's the gap between Houston and the Saints who are 17. So the gap between 32 and 31 is bigger than the gap between 31 and 17.

That's how banged up Minnesota was last year. They had 92 games lost by starters on the offense. 92. That should be impossible. Yeah, I mean, look, I think that there is, I think the completion percentage thing is now become a joke. And I think that's unfair to Bradford in a lot of ways. He was just, you know, he had to get the ball out of his hand quicker.

you know, his yards per attempt was still seven, which is pretty good. It's pretty good. That is, by the way, a career high. He's also just an accurate passer. Yeah. The completion percentage thing, I don't even care about that. He's a very accurate passer. He put the ball where he wanted to last year, despite just running for his life and constantly think he's going to get his head torn off.

Right. And I just think that offense, with him playing that way, with the changes they made on the offensive line, do they go get Riley Reef and Mike Remmers? their new tackles who not i'm not a big i'm not a big remers fan no one is but he's an actual nflare player that is an upgrade over the guys they had last year jake long played left tackle for this team having those guys that are actual bodies there plus they drafted that elf line guy from ohio state is their center in the third round i think he's going to end up playing i feel like the bodies they'd have up front are decent and also they would finish 31 31st in russian uva last year 3.2 yards of carry

part of that's the offensive line part of that's the running backs i think with this group and dalvin cook they could be reasonable as a running game this year and i feel like when you take all of this stuff into account it's just part of my larger point that the vikings were the team last off season we were so pumped about the vikings and i don't know why we're so far away from that right now i think the offense has a chance to be better than the one we predicted a season ago and i don't know why we're less excited about the defense. I know that they had a huge drop off at the end of the season, and Everson Griffin talked about this. He just said they were gassed because they were on the field so much, which makes total sense. They finished ninth in DVOA, but 18th in a way to DVOA.

That is ridiculous. I mean, that is just a utter collapse. But the personnel for the most part are the same guys we loved last year. And I know Anthony Barr was terrible last season, but I still think he's super talented. I just feel like that team top to bottom still has enough talent that carries over from the one we're excited about. And I think Bradford can have a really nice season. Yeah, I think it has the capability to be another weird season. I'm not sure what's going on with Mike Zimmer right now. Yeah, that's a good point, too.

If Mike Remmer's plays Vaughn Miller and, again, I don't know if that's on the schedule. But you don't have to play Von Miller every game. That's the nice part. Sam Bradford is going to get murdered whenever that happens. Yeah, I agree. I mean, I just, do you see them making the playoffs? I think they absolutely can. Can they win the division?

Robert Mays? Yes. They can win the division. Yeah. I mean, Green Bay is always going to be right there, but I absolutely think Minnesota could win 10 or 11 games in the division. By the way, they beat some good teams. They beat some good teams during that 5-0 stretch. I mean, they beat the Giants.

They beat Green Bay. I mean, Tennessee turns out was pretty good. I don't necessarily think that was a soft win at all. I agree with you. I'm just, I don't know, man. I'm not buying into San Bradford. Not yet. That's why it's an unpopular opinion. I just looking at that defense, Daniel Hunter is 22.

He's only 22. He had 12 and a half sacks last year. I think he's going to be a star. I really do think that they have the pieces to be much better than people are thinking right now. All right, moving on. Our next unpopular opinion, we're going to look at a negative player outlook for 2017.

This will be specific to this season. For me, Robert, turn your microphone down so you don't scream into it. Uh-oh. I really am. I'm not seeing a full blast season from JJ Watt this year. Come on, man. You know it's true.

You know it's true. I don't know it's true. Don't even put that on me. I do not know it's true. JJ Watt wrote for the Players Tribune last year that he was considering retirement. Maybe that's just sort of JJ Watt theatrics. But he did have back surgery. In 2015, he had a broken hand, a staff infection, two torn abs.

Yeah, and he was a monster. By the way, by the way, is the two torn abs thing just to humble brag about how many abs he has? Do you have two abs? I don't think I have two abs. I might, but that's it. That's the upper limit. I have no idea how many there are. He's got ribs.

He's definitely not more than two. He's got abs to tear, okay? Three torn adductor muscles. That was the other thing that was in his player's tribune. Are those the same thing? I don't know. He made the difference. I have no idea which muscles people have and where they are.

He tore all of them. He has so many muscles that he doesn't know which ones he tour. That's where we are with JJ Watt. So, and obviously one hernated disc, which still lingers. I like JJ Watt a lot. I think that if you pair him with Clowny and they're both healthy, you're looking at. And merciless, man. And merciless.

You're looking at, you know, almost, if they had a little better secondary, you're looking at almost the Broncos from a couple years ago, right? I just, once you get into backs, it really scares me. And once you get into guys who get banged up, he's 300 pounds. talked about this, you know, off air. He's 300 pounds. He doesn't look like a person. He doesn't look like a person.

No. And so I just worry a little bit about this season. I think that I don't know if he's going to have, you know, a completely worthless season, but I do know it's going to take him a long time to get in the rhythm of things because that's two injury, really, really injury prone seasons at this point. I don't know how long it's going to take him to get into the rhythm of things. I'm not sure as if it's something that's going to come along slowly, but I completely understand your concern. I mean, back injuries for big men. And playing through it. I mean, one thing I want to

make clear is in 2015 when he had all those things he played, that's not healthy for the body. It's not, but he was also really good. He was 17s. He was really good in 2015. So I, here's what I'll say. You know that I really want to see him back to who it used to be. Because watching JJ Y at his peak is one of my favorite parts about football. I've said this before. He's the best defensive player I've ever seen. And I'm not, I'm of a certain age. I was nine years old when Reggie White won the Super Bowl with the Packers. That's not my football watching age necessarily. In my lifetime, as I've kind of been an adult watching this game, I've never seen anybody do what JJ Walken do. And even the idea of him being a

slightly diminished version of that guy is the pressing because it just feels like we'd be cheated out of something to such a degree. I mean, the way that he could just dominate a game single-handedly, the one I still talk about is that game against Buffalo a couple years ago. Do you remember that game? He had that pick six. He had nine quarterback hits, but no sacks. I've never seen somebody dominate a game without getting a sack. And he absolutely did. And just the idea that we would see 80% of that because of this back stuff, that sucks.

And as much as I don't want to think about it, I think you have to. I think you have to consider that it's a possibility, even if it's an unwelcome one. I wrote a story last year about how the NFL is getting too young. And part of that, obviously there's an overreliance. on rookie contracts. But part of that is that guys are coming into the league better than ever as rookies. And then essentially they are using up all their value in their first four or five years. There is some research from true media, which is a great football stats company,

that shows that the average age for a defensive lineman in the NFL has dropped about a year and a half just from 2009, as far as when you adjust for SNAP. maps. Pass rushing and being a defensive lineman has become a young man's game. It's all about explosion. It's all about all this, you know, the first one and a half seconds of a play, all that. I'm not saying that J.J. Watt is on the decline. I'm just saying that at age 28, he is going to have to buck the last five years of NFL trends as far as just, you know, you have to, the interplay between the lines has gotten so complicated and so physical that you have to be so athletic in order to in the backfield.

And I just worry about the injuries for maybe the first, you know, five or six weeks of the season. Yeah. And we'll see. And I feel like he's somebody that absolutely has just the overall, you know, he's made of stuff to allow him to buck that trend. I mean, he is one of the best athletes we've ever seen. I'm not betting against him.

So I understand that the athleticism decline really comes up to bite a lot of guys. But he's somebody that has athleticism in such reserves or did when he was healthy that I feel like he's somebody that can stave that off. And the other thing about him and becoming a young man's game and everything else, that makes total sense. But he's never been just a pure edge guy. And the way they used him in those first couple seasons, he took so much more of a pounding because he was playing on the inside all the time that it's just stuff that most,

Von Miller will never have to worry about consistently. I'm not saying that Von Miller is a lesser player than JJ Watt because of that. It's just the way that they're deployed. And I feel like that did him no favors. All right. Now let's switch gears to the positive player on popular opinions. And I'm going to start mine with Amari Cooper. I think Amari Cooper has a legitimate chance to lead the league in receiving this year.

Not O'Dell Beckham, not Julio Jones, that Antonio Brown. I feel like this is the year where he could take a massive step forward and just be right in that class of guys. And I think that for a couple different reasons. One, we don't really have any wide receiver that figures to be the target monster this year. All the guys that typically are are probably going to have some of that taken away. by players that were signed specifically to do that. Odo Beckham is Brandon Marshall and Evan Ingram now. Mike Evans has Deshawn Jackson and OJ Howard now.

Julio Jones, we saw exactly what happened last year when they brought in all those options. So you aren't going to have that guy, I don't think, this season that gets 200 targets. So if we take that off the table, there's no reason to me why Cooper can't take a huge step forward and have 1,400 yards this year. I think that moving to Todd Downing as the offensive coordinator in Oakland,

they're going to let Carr open the throttle up a little bit. And based on everything I've heard this year, the coaching staff kind of came to Cooper at the end of the season. We're like, we need more from you. And he's responded in a way that they didn't even imagine that he could. So I'm very excited to watch him in that offense. You know, Michael Crabtree was targeted 145 times last year, and that was 13 times more than Cooper.

So I don't know how many options Derek Carr is going to have because it's not like they've gone out and built a whole offense. They haven't done a tamper. and just gotten two more stud weapons. But I do think that the one thing holding Cooper back is they're going to give Crabtree a lot of targets. I think they're going to give them a lot, but I think that flips this year. I think this is the year where you see Cooper get 160 and Crabtree get 125. That's what I'm seeing.

No, I could see that. I definitely could. But I just, for now, until I see it, I'm going to believe that a Cooper stays where he is, which is a fantastic receiver. So let's move on to coaches. And my unpopular coach opinion is that I feel like Dan Quinn may quietly be the best defensive coordinator in the league. And here's what makes me say that.

I think when they transitioned last year to him really taking the reins of that unit. And I feel like you kind of understood that when Richard Smith lost his job as the defensive coordinator at the end of the season, that that was really Quinn's unit by season's end. And they really turned it around in the second half. They were 11th and past defense DVOA over the second half of the season. And they did that without Desmond Truffant. And I just think that right now, with everything we're probably going to see as far as regression goes for that offense, they're the healthiest offense in the league. They were historically good.

You automatically take a step back when those things are true. Actually, I'm sorry. Do you know who was the healthiest offense of the league last year? The Rams. Yeah, okay. The Rams were the fourth worst offense by DVOA in 31 years. And they were the healthiest offense in the league. Well, that's what Jeff Fisher was after.

and just protecting the quarterback. That's incredible. You guys thought that Jeff Fisher was an idiot. He was just trying to keep him up right. All right. So I do, I mean, I think that the regression from the offense is obvious,

but I think they're going to more than make up for it with how good that defense is going to be. Don't you think it would be a great angle for me to just start campaigning for Jeff Fisher to get another job? Like, that just became my thing. That was just your thing? What if the unpopular opinion show was just me arguing for Jeff Fisher in every category?

I think that Quinn last, in last year, moving away from kind of those zone-based schemes that he used to love in Atlanta or used to love in Seattle, playing more man, being malleable, understanding his personnel. I think that he's brilliant at understanding how to put his guys in the right spot and about knowing what kind of players fit the defense that he plays. And I just think that Dion Jones, Robert Alford, Desmond Truffant, Keanu Neal, bass with Vic Beasley, who you like more than I do. To me, he's like a guy who it's 205, but his 45 home. runs, but I still like just the core of young guys.

I don't care about that. I mean, I honestly, I'm into game-changing plays, and that's fair. But you can make more game-changing plays when you're around the quarterback more. That's what I'm saying. Yeah, no, listen, I agree, but he's a terrible run defender. I understand that, but I'll take it. I mean, I will take. There's a reason the baseball analytics movement moved towards home runs are okay and

and so is hitting 230 if you hit a bunch of home runs. extra base hits. That's what it's about. Vic Beasley is, I don't know, some baseball guy who does exactly what we're talking about. I just think the Quinn is, we're going to talk about as a head coach probably going forward because I think the Falcons are going to be relevant. But as a defensive mind, I think that should not be overlooked. What's yours?

All right. For me, it's the lack of a defensive mind. It's that Sean Payton doesn't get enough heat because every, he's sort of settled. Wow, this is a good one. He's sort of settled into what's going on in New Orleans. Orleans, three years of seven and nine, which is fine. Listen, there are so many good coaches who have gone through ruts. I'm fine with that. But if you're the head coach and we all, as football observers, love what they do on offense.

I just don't know. It's mindlessly efficient. I don't know. Yeah, second in points last year, but I just don't know, first in yards. I don't know how you go three straight years of 28, 32nd, and 31st and points allowed. And then two years earlier, 31st. They had basically one year of good defense. and if you're the head coach, that falls on you.

And I just don't understand why we don't talk enough about how we can't fix that. Because it seems like, I mean, they brought in Rob Ryan, which was not a huge, not has not solved any problems in the history of football. I just, I feel like maybe we need to shake it up. Maybe Sean Pitt needs to go somewhere else. You know what this reminds me of? This reminds me of what happened with the Lovey Smith. There I bears, which I kind of went on a little, like, I fell down a hole last night,

doing some research on it, just looking back. They were so good on defense every year, but they never got the offense right. And eventually, it cost Levy Smith's job. And that's worse because if you don't get your quarterback right, you should get fired. And the Saints have done that. So they've done the most important thing. So it's not a one for one comparison, but I still think it's a problem that is on him. And they've just never fixed it.

Having a good offense every year is the best way to be a contender, because defense, defense is much more inconsistent, but I do think that it's kind of ridiculous. They haven't even lucked into a very good defense since they won the Super Bowl. Yeah. I mean, they, they've been top 10 twice in points since Sean Payton got there. Do you know how hard that is? It's really hard. Just by sheer luck, you should do it more often than that.

Like on accident, one year you should just be like ninth. Guys should trip often enough that you should be eighth or nine. Yeah, and obviously, look, there were certain things in the offseason that they talked about doing to get better, whether that was going out and getting Malcolm Butler or whatever, they didn't do it. I just think at some point that we've got to look at this team and say, why are we doing? And look, I understand the cap thing, but a lot of teams have been capped out. And it's also organ. Sean Payton has a lot of juice in that organization.

And if he didn't, he would leave. And so if he said, you know what, we're actually going to go in a different direction and start spending a lot of money on the defense or, you know, spend more, spend smarter on. on the defense, whatever it is. I think you would have seen that get a little better. I mean, it's been three years now. And do you see the Saints defense getting that much better in 2017? Not necessarily. I think they've made the personnel choices they need to.

They've tried to get better players in there, but I'm not sure how much that's going to matter. Yeah, I mean, I don't see a path towards improvement. And then, thusly, I don't see a path toward contention. They are what they are. I think Sean Payton is incredible as far as what he is, his offensive schemes brought to the league. I think him and Drew Brees, that's a top 10. coach quarterback partnership ever. But I just feel like we need to look a little bit more at that defense and say what the

what the hell is going on. All right. We're going to be welcome by Danny Kelly in a second. But before we do, let's take a quick break. Today's episode is brought to you by our recap podcast, Binge Mode Game of Thrones. The ringer's very own mother of dragons, Mallory Rubin, and our maister, Jason Concepcion, have broke down all six seasons of Game of Thrones deep diving one episode at a time. They continue their journey each week with season seven, parsing theories, history,

characters and themes that enriched one of the defining stories of our time. You can subscribe to Bench Mode Game of Thrones on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or wherever you get your podcast. And of course, for more Game of Thrones content, make sure to visit The Ringer.com. And now we bring on Danny Kelly, our own Danny Kelly of the Ringer. Danny spouted his own unpopular opinion this week and his camp battles to watch piece. And I don't think he figured we would notice, Kevin, but we did. I noticed.

I noticed. Danny's just trying to sneak those by us lately. It's not happening. You guys are on top of it, man. I can't take it. We established this earlier, Danny. When you have an unpopular opinion, you have to be able to defend it. And I want you to defend your Texans point that you made in your piece this week.

Okay, so first of all, the point was the Texans can be a Super Bowl contender in the AFC, which I don't know if anyone's really saying that at this point. Tom Savage. Shea Serrano has been saying that. Yeah, Shay has. as. She said it at the night of the draft. I'll get to the savage thing because I think that's kind of a key to this whole thing.

So, first of all, the defense, I mean, the defense alone can get them back to the playoffs. It's been the reason they've been there the last two years anyway, and they get J.J. Watt back this year. I mean, this was, this team ranked seventh in DVOA last year on defense without Watt. And so I think, you know, getting Watt back, anything near what he was a couple years ago is going to be huge for them. It could be, you know, game change. They could be a top three, top two defense in the NFL. And, you know, just with the way that teams have been so one-sided lately last year,

I think every, you know, all the good teams that suffer basically New England were, were really one-sided. And I think that, you know, just the Texans being so dominant on defense this year, if they can get Watt back and stay healthy with Clowny and all that, it puts them up there in, you know, in contention in the AFC. And now the biggest X factor for me is what happens with Deshaun Watson. I've seen a couple of Houston guys that are pretty plugged in. John McLean, Lance Eerling say that Watson's not going to be a starter week one.

But I kind of, I think he's going to be. I think he's going to beat out Savage. I don't see how, I mean, I just feel like the Texans are going to be so motivated to get Watson in there. You know, they don't want to waste another year of their excellent defense. And so, you know, I think that Watson, with his ability to be a little more dynamic, he can run. He can, you know, he can make deep passes a lot better than Brock Oswald. did last year. Osweiler was such a limiting factor for them last year. I think that putting Watson in there can, you know, not, I'm not going to say that the Texans are going

to have a top offense this year, but just having them somewhere around average is going to be huge. And so, you know, just those, those variables, I think it makes them a real contender in the NFC for the Super Bowl. With the Watson thing, I think the best case scenario is what happened with Carr and Schaub in Oakland, where they said it was Shob, Shob, Shob, and they gave it to car at the last minute. The worst case scenario is what happened with Teddy Bridgewater and Matt Castle in Minnesota, where Castle got hurt, and that's the reason they took him out, but he was an abomination for those four games. If he hadn't gotten hurt in that Patriots game, that was it anyway. So it wouldn't be a surprise to me to see him by the week four at the latest.

Right. And the defense, you're right. I mean, we talked about Watt earlier on the show, and there's some concerns about if he's going to be that guy, everything else. But if he's close to it, I know they lost Boye. They didn't have Kevin Johnson last year. I mean, they didn't have I like Kevin Johnson a lot. He's a good player, man. I just think that they have ways to make up for the small steps back. They're going to take at certain positions. And trust me, Danny, there's nothing else I want to hear outside of.

I'm excited to see JJ Watt again. I'm glad one of us is. Kevin is not. Absolutely, I am. I mean, you know, obviously. I don't feel anything towards JJ Y. I just, when you look at the situation, there's a lot of reason to doubt what's going to happen in 2017. All right.

Danny, you had another one that is particularly relevant this week. Why don't you lay that on us? Yeah, so, you know, essentially we've been talking about this Kirk Cousins deal forever. Basically, the whole summer, it's been kind of one of the main topics of discussion. And I think he could really regress this year. I think he could finish as a bottom half, maybe even bottom third quarterback in terms of statistics. And I'll tell you why, this situation in Washington really reminds me of what happened with Andy Dalton and the Bengals last year. in 2015

Dalton was a top five quarterback in efficiency in pretty much every efficiency Studden was a stud They led the league in passing DVA Yeah Yeah He was second in yards per attempt

Third adjusted yards per attempt Second pass rating Third in QBR And seventh and percentage Completion percentage in 2015 He lost Sunoo Marvin Jones For a long

For long stretches Eifert was out And obviously lost his Offensive coordinator But he still had AJ Green and he finished last year 11th in yards per attempt 10th adjusted yards per attempt 15th in pass rating 20th in QBR and 13th in completion percentage so I mean he fell off hard and I can see that kind of thing happening with cousins this year based on

you know kind of the turnover that Washington has had on offense they lost to Sean Jackson Pierre Garcin's gone Jordan Reed is a huge question mark I mean he's been injury prone his whole career and now he's got kind of the concussions issue that you have to worry about um And now you're inserting, you know, Torell Pryor, Josh Doxon, who is essentially a rookie. I mean, he played a couple of games last year, but he's new to the game. And Jameson Crowder is back, but, I mean, he's no AJ Green. So I could see, I could see this offense taking a big dip down. Last year, they were really dependent on play action.

I looked it up. They were actually first in the NFL in yards per attempt on play action plays. Wow. That's surprising. Yeah, 10.3 yards per play on play action plays. and that was more than three yards per play more than on non-play action plays, which is the third highest differential. So they were really, really good on play action and, you know,

around average, not on play action. So, I mean, how different is it going to look with Deshaun Jackson and Pierre Garcin gone? Like, is their play action going to be quite as effective? Is it even going to be nearly as effective? And the other thing to take into account, this is another study I saw yesterday, was Washington has the hardest schedule. by past defenses according to Warren Sharp stats. And they're in the same division as the Giants and the Eagles.

I mean, those are two really good defenses probably this year. And I don't know, if you look at the way that Cousins ended the year last five games, he was, he threw five touchdowns, five intersections had an 86 rating against some good defenses, Arizona, Philly, Carolina, and the Giants they played over those last five games. There was one other team. I can't remember off the top of my head. but I mean, they kind of wilted against those good defenses. So those are basically kind of what I'm looking at.

And I mean, it might not be all his fault. I think, you know, obviously there's a lot of turnover. There's all this, you know, drama around his contract and everything like that. But I think cousins could, could regress pretty badly this year. And it's not even a matter of it all being his fault. This is the point that was always coming up with Kirk Cousins over the last few years. How much of this is a product of the situation that he's in and how much of it is a product of Kirk Cousins.

And if you change the situation a bit and he takes a step back, then it kind of is a point in Washington's favor in why they were reticent about giving him that deal. Exactly. I mean, Scott McClue and came out and said, like, we've seen Cousin's ceiling. I couldn't believe when he said that. And that was pretty, I mean, that's like as honest as you can get from. I'm pretty sure we have. I know.

And that's the thing is like he was in a pretty perfect situation in terms of he had a deep threat. a very good intermediate receiver in Garsohn. You know, Jordan Reed, one of the top move tight ends in the NFL when he's healthy and, you know, a really good pass protecting offensive line. It's kind of like, I mean, I don't know if all those pieces are going to come together this year for him. It's going to be really different. There you go.

Danny Kelly jumping as far away from the Kirk Cousinship as he possibly can. How much would you pay Kirk Cousins if he was a free agent and needed a quarterback, Danny? Oh, man. See, and that's the thing, though, is like, I'm in the camp that, even if your quarterback is average, you pay them. Yeah, because the alternative is you end up like the Browns. Yeah, I agree. I made the analogy in my article last week.

It's like a one-bedroom apartment in Manhattan. It's only going to get more expensive. Just buy it. Yeah. And Kyle Shanahan's going to you, man. Don't you worry. Oh, man. Yeah, so I would pay him.

I would pay him top dollar. I mean, it's just that's the way, that's the market. And obviously, I think we've talked about this a couple times last couple of months. It's like, quarterbacks are probably still underpaid. I mean, just for their value, like their true value to a team. It's the only way to get good is to have a good quarterback. And the only, and the most effective way to get bad is have a bad quarterback. If that doesn't say anything.

Exactly. I mean, that says everything about the sport. Just pay the quarterbacks. All right, Danny. Thanks a lot, bud. We'll talk to you soon. All right, Kevin. Thanks good.

Thanks, guys. See, Danny. All right, Kevin. Let's get back to our unpopular opinions. Let's do some team specific ones for 2017. Sure. Let's start with something that, you're a little bit negative on, which I know is always where you would like to start.

Well, actually, let's start with yours so then I can dunk on you afterwards. I'm pretty sure you might agree with me here. I think even with the pieces they've added on offense, the Giants absolutely could finish third or fourth in the NFC East. I mean, when you look at the huge leap they made on defense, 30th in DVOA in 2015 to second last year, I know they signed 17 free agents and that allows that to happen. That still gives me pause. I'm worried when I see stuff like that. Even when it's Atlanta's offense last year,

I just think that when you see huge improvements like that, you're going to see a step back even if the players are good. They were a pretty healthy unit. They were ninth in Adjust the Games lost on defense last year. I just think that the defense is going to step back. And even with Brandon Marshall and Evan Ingram, I have no reason to think the offense is going to be very good. They were 31st last season and three and outs per drive.

Point three one. Right. One step ahead of this. Los Angeles Rams, the only team worse than that. This is a team that can be sudden because of Beckham, but they cannot sustain. And I know that's what Marshall and Ingram were for, but Marshall's getting into his mid-30s. Ingram is a 240-pound guy who's never played in line tight end consistently. And I don't think Eli Manning is coming back.

I just feel like it could be much worse than people think on offense. And I don't know if the defense is going to be the same. When I was crafting my unpopular opinions, I was trying to figure out, away. It's in the lab, in the unpopular opinion lab in West Hollywood. And I was crafting a way because I really wanted to be super negative on Eli Manning.

But there is no negative opinion on Eli Manning that is unpopular. There's just nothing you can do. There's no place you can go. You could be like, you could be like, Eli Manning needs to just stop playing football and just do something else and it should be barred

from the football field. And like half the people on their internet would be like, yeah. Yeah, that's okay. So, I don't have any line manning unpopular opinion. What I have, and it's not necessarily disagreeing with you, but I think it's reshaping and reframing the conversation around the Giants. I think the NFC East might be kind of a bad division this year. Really?

I mean, I just feel like we're going to have, there is not, I definitely don't see two playoff teams like there were last year. I definitely don't see, by the way, the Cowboys and the Giants were both in December thought of as Super Bowl contenders. There were a lot of people who were floating a Giants, especially after the Giants beat the Cowboys late in season. A lot of people were floating Giants, Patriots to the Super Bowl. There were a lot of discussion about that, including around the ringer office. Are a lot of people, Bill Simmons?

And the ringer people. And my people at the ringer. A lot of people, many people, many people were saying the Giants. And so my general thought is that everyone sort of takes a step backwards. We're going to talk about the Eagles in a second. but, you know, the Cowboys lost the second most, according to over the cap, the second most snaps in the league last year. They lost 27.5 of their total snaps.

That's mostly on defense, though. But what I'm necessarily that good. I understand that. But what I'm saying is you still, I mean, where, there's going to be a lot of holes to fill. And I don't know. I just, I don't anticipate them being the world conquering Super Bowl contender they were last year because, first of all, there are questions on the offensive line. You don't know about

that. We don't know what it's going to look like until we see it. The theoretically, it could be okay. But any time you switch that stuff around and the shuffling begins, there's reason to be concerned. Danny Kelly had mentioned with Washington the reliance on play action. Dak Prescott last year led the NFL and play action completion percentage, 75% when he was in play action. If the running game takes even a little step backwards, that will start to affect the play action. And so I see sort of a domino effect as far as that goes. Look, I'm not saying they're going to go 5 and 11.

I'm not saying that I'm saying the Cowboys, if I were a betting man would maybe have them and the Giants being won two in that division. But what I am saying is I don't think we're going to see everyone talking about the Cowboys as Super Bowl favorites in November or December. Now, the Redskins are what they are. We just talked about them. I'm not totally high on them. And I just, I feel like the Eagles still have a little ways to get better.

I understand the Wence is going to have those weapons. I like some of those weapons, but they still, I mean, they laid an egg in a lot of games last year. I agree. I mean, they were not good last season, but I think with the pieces they've added on offense, just giving him a chance. Jeffrey's good, man. I've watched a lot of Alshon Jeffrey and that dude can play. I mean, the dynamic he can give them.

If Wenz takes a step forward, I think if the offense can get to league average, 15th in DVOA, I feel like the defense is going to be. that good. I think it's going to be one of the three or four best defenses in the league. They finished fourth in defensive DVOA last season. They've only added more pieces. I love what Schwartz has done with those guys. I absolutely think they could be a double-digit win team that wins this division if Dallas takes a step back. That wouldn't surprise me at all. I just don't see that happening. I think Giants in Dallas are one too in that division. And I think that the win total is lower than anyone thinks. That's my unpopular opinion.

All right, let's get to our positive outlook for the 2017 season. Who's your team that you feel better about than most people? So one thing I want to, again, you can craft the unpopular opinion with something that everyone sort of agrees with, but you have to make it unpopular. And so when I look at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, I think everyone considers them pretty good. I see them and I'm not, you know, I haven't. Don't do this to me. Not again.

I can't do this with the Bucks again. you deal with whatever you need to deal with another side. I'll finish my point. You can come around and scream about me trying to get your hopes up about the bucks. I see them almost as this year's Raiders. Last year, last July,

we had a discussion about who was on the rise or whatever. And I sort of wanted to reframe the conversation around the Raiders because I thought they had so much talent that they weren't sort of plucky underdogs who needed eight wins. They were a really talented team. team and if they didn't, I believe I said if they didn't win 11 games, that would be

disappointment. That's how I feel about the Bucks this year. If they don't make the playoffs, and I would handicap them maybe win the division right now, I think they're going to go toe to toe to with Atlanta. I don't know what the hell is going on with Carolina anymore now that they have Marty Herney as GM and we already went through New Orleans. And so I see them as just, I see them competing for a division title. And if they don't, if they win less than double-digit games, I think that's a huge failure. To me, it comes down to Winston. And after adding the guys they did with Jackson, with Howard, even with Chris Godwin

is like another downfield element, is he just this guy? Do the weapons matter? Is he going to throw the ball away 18 times? Is he going to be inaccurate? That's my question. If he's just the guy we've seen, it's hard to get that excited about this team. I know they were 11th and passing DVOA last year. They have enough to have a very reasonable pass offense.

The real problem for them last year is they couldn't run the ball. And if Doug Martin comes back, then that becomes another thing. But I feel like they need Winston to take a step forward in his decision making, his overall mechanics, everything, if that's going to happen. They've made every step to help facilitate it, but we still haven't seen it yet. I see that leap coming. That is my prediction. It'd be fun, man.

I think with all the weapons that they have, I'd love to see it. but I still am a little hesitant. I'm not going to go all the way there yet, mostly because it would be the seventh year in a row that I've been burned by them. So I'd rather not do that. We can share the burden of the bucks this year. Thanks, buddy.

I really appreciate you being there for me. My unpopular opinion, just in terms of a team that's going to be better than we think in 2017, especially coming off of yesterday's news, even if Mike Williams misses the year for the Chargers, I think they can win that division. And if they don't win the division,

if the Raiders just keep cruising and there are a 14 win team, everything else, I feel like they absolutely can compete for a wild card spot. The Michael Williams thing hurts. I don't know why it would hurt that bad, though. He is a luxury for that. I think he's a good player. I don't mind that they took him. But when you looked at that team last season,

their problem wasn't receiving talent. Don Trell Inman and Tyroo Williams are fine. And then they didn't have Keenan Allen. Yep. They missed him the entire season. and they were still an average pass offense. Yeah. Their problem offensively was running the ball.

Yeah, I mean, and I think Melvin Gordon is pretty good. Now, he's very good. The problem was the offensive line was not good. They went and drafted two new guards. And remember that Anthony Lynn guy we talked about and him having the two most efficient running backs in the league last year? He's their coach now. Here's my thought.

I love Philip Rivers. I love a lot of the individual team. talent on the Chargers. Number one, I just don't understand why they can't stay healthy. That leads me to believe there's, I have no idea. Either they have bad doctors or they take too many chances. You know, there are some teams who overlook, you know, people say, oh, injury is luck or whatever. There are some teams, I don't know this to be the case with the chargers who do overlook certain medical things for the sake of taking a chance. There are teams like that. And maybe that's the reason they have so many injured guys. I have no

idea. But what I do know is that there seems to be something systematic where everyone who's good gets hurt. That's not good. The second thing is that I just, the stadium and the moving is weird to me. I think that, I think that, I think that the distraction thing is so overblown in the NFL that we say, oh, this is a distraction. I mean, the dumbest argument in the world was that Colin Kaepernick was a distraction last year to the 49ers. Like the 49ers were distracted because they had no talent. They were distracted by how bad they were, right? It wasn't Colin Kaepernick. And that's a situation with 99% of these teams is everything we say is a distraction is not really a distraction. And it's not like Eric Armstead was, you know, he couldn't play because, oh my God,

Colin Kaepernick's in this locker room. Almost all distractions are overblown, especially in the media. However, moving, hold on, but moving from San Diego to Los Angeles, trying to find a home, moving your family. Philip Rivers has like eight kids. I know. How do you watch game film? How do you watch game film?

You got a, you got a shuttling eight kids up up up to, you ever been to Orange County traffic maze? I have, yes. I live in Los Angeles for five years. Yeah, I've been in a one. I'm still in it. I'm in Orange County right now. I'm doing this from your car.

It sounds great. I'm in the highway. I'm in Santa Ana. I, all that makes sense. I agree. I just think from a personal perspective, I like the team. I think they really have some good pieces.

The difference between good teams is so small. The difference between a mediocre team and a good team is so, small. I just feel like a couple of weeks where you weren't training or weren't practicing because you were looking for a new place. I feel like there's a little bit of concern there. They're playing in an MLS stadium. I don't, I think that might help, but it also might be weird. I don't know. I mean, we might find out in week five, there's weird sight lines and all, you know, their kickers are missing every kick. I don't know. This has not been tried before. The MLS thing. You're right. You're right. All of that is fair. I just think the offense is going to be

much better and I think the defense is for real. And we're just going on that. The coordinator changes and the coaching staff. I think it's going to take. I feel like Gus Bradley is a good coach. I like the pieces they have over there. Bosa Ingraham Hayward-Vorette. Works for me.

I like, I love the individual talent in the charges. I've praised the Chargers many times, many times over. I love all of their players. But I just feel like they're not ready to take the leap. I was ready with Mike Williams. I sung Mike Williams' praises early. earlier this in this pod session, you know, just as a guy is going to make a difference. I think it's a luxury.

I know I get your point robber, but it's a luxury that they needed. If that makes sense. All right, buddy, I think that's all we got this week. That's a lot of stuff packed into one show. This is our last podcast before training camps. We are back to football next week. He fired up? I mean, is it not clear?

I feel like I'm obviously fired up. I'm pretty excited about it. Yeah, you're selling it. It's great. next week we're going to do something that's pretty much, you know, looking forward to the season. With training camps open, we're going to really kind of lean into that excitement. We're going to do the Leap Show, you know, the guys that we feel like you're going to take a huge step forward. Pretty much everyone's going to be back at camp by then.

So I feel like it's pretty good timing. As always, we really appreciate you guys listening. Thank you for listening to the Ringer podcast network. Make sure to check out all the other stuff that we have. Go listen to Binge mode. Go read the Ringer. And we will be back next week. Thanks guys.