The Ringer NFL Show - Waiver-Wire Adds, Predicting Breakouts, and Deceiving Yards | The Dantasy Football Podcast

Episode Date: September 10, 2019

Danny Kelly, Danny Heifetz, and Craig Horlbeck highlight the biggest fantasy football story lines of the week, debate the most important waiver-wire adds, and break down key usage trends from Week 1. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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and welcome to the Danesie Football podcast on the Ringer NFL show on the Ringer Podcast Network. My name is Danny Hyphitz, and I am joined as always by my co-host, my co-Dani, the hero we need, the fantasy analyst we deserve. The Dark Knight Danny Kelly. D.K., what is on your mind?

Man, great, great first week of football. That's what's on my mind. It was just finally, it was fun to finally have some actual real things to talk about and to analyze. So, yeah, really, really excited about that. Yeah, it's cool after like eight months of thinking about how the season will go to actually see the season. It's just a deluge of information. and I love it. We're also joined by Craig. Craig, how you doing?

Amazing. I started AJ Brown, John Brown, Marquise Brown. I'm just kidding. I didn't do any of those. But I'm still good. Beautiful. Well, this is the first of many Monday shows where we will be diving into everything you need to know, who to add and drop, which performances are real, which are fake, John Ross, and which players cannot take the Miami Heat because they vacation in cold weather countries. But before we get into any of that, we're going to do our what's of the week, which is exactly what it sounds like. The stat lines we looked at on Sunday and said, what? So, DK, what was your what of the week?

Well, I mean, I think you have to start out with Lamar Jackson. We're going to get to Antonio Brown, obviously, since that is a crazy story that happened over the weekend. But yeah, Lamar Jackson passing out of his mind in Miami, 324 yards, five touchdowns, 16.2 yards per attempt. I want to say he had a perfect passer rating and after the game he said not bad for a running back incredible incredible performance and God

it was just like everything you could have hoped for if you took him in the late rounds you took him because he has this incredible floor as a rusher and if he could somehow figure it out and put together the ability to throw the football he has league like he could break fantasy football type potential and then we saw him just light up the dolphins defense.

And obviously, you know, the dolphins are tanking, but that's a good secondary. And he was throwing into tight windows. So, I mean, like, overall, if you have Lamar Jackson, congratulations, because that was an amazing performance. And I think it makes his ceiling just go up, you know, tenfold, basically. If he can, if he even, you know,

if he starts running too, I think this year, and that's kind of a key too. But, yeah, his passing performance was huge. I remember watching Sports Center afterward just seeing all the plays back to back to back and thinking, this looks exactly like his highlights, at Louisville. Just bomb after bomb after bomb.

I mean, obviously he only had a few rushes, but it was just the deep balls were perfect. It was after everyone just wondering about his deep ball. It was like, oh my God, they're like majestic. A lot of people, so people were talking about

the flick of the wrist style that he throws with is so reminiscent of Michael Vick. Obviously he's right-handed. But yeah, I mean, like just right on the money. And I think there was a lot of concern kind of going into the season. Like, can he be consistent?

can he be accurate as a thrower? Can he do everything you need to do to read the defense and all that? I mean, everything you saw on this game was just outstanding. I love Greg Roman as an offensive coordinator. I just love everything they did about it. Obviously, they're not going to continue to just completely annihilate teams like that and pass it all over the yard and everything. But overall, it's just great.

Crucially, another huge win for John Harbaugh over his brother, Jim, because Michigan almost lost to, like, Army. And then John Harbo was, like, basically compared himself to Bill Walsh in the 80s and then came out and did it so good for John Harbaugh. Okay, what are the odds though that like next week the Ravens score 17 and everyone's like well? 98%

and we'll be like oh maybe Clemson could beat the dolphins. We'll deal with that next week. For the record the Ravens play the Cardinals next week guys. Are you still believing that? All right, maybe it's maybe week three. What a slate for Lamar Jackson. What a slate for Lamar Jackson? They get the, so let me just

read you guys their schedule here. They got the Cardinals next week at home. They're at the Chiefs, who we know about the Chief's defense. They get the Browns at home who just got 45 dropped on them by the freaking Titans. Not great. Wow. The Steelers, who just

lost 33 to 3 to the Patriots. Also not. And got all their players hurt in garbage time. The Bengals, who will get to. And then the Seahawks, who gave up a career high, 418 passing yards to Andy Dalton at home. So, you

Yeah, do you want to revise that at all, or do you still feel pretty confident that it was just a one-hit wonder? There was like a 70-to-one bet that the Ravens would be the last team undefeated. So I feel like a loser. Speaking of undefeated teams, the Patriots are going 16-0. Oh, my God, the Antonio Brown thing. I... Is there anything more demoralizing than what just happened this weekend?

I was at the Rose Bowl watching San Diego State beat UCLA this weekend when I got a notification that Antonio Brown signed with the Patriots. And by the way, it was like 98 degrees at the Rose Bowl. And me and my friends, we all thought we had heat stroke. It was like a mirage and it wasn't true. But I went home, turned on the AC and it was still true. My thought on this was like, you know the Joker? And like, you're like, you look back at the dark night.

You're like, how did he plan all of this? And then I just want to rewatch the movie. It's like inception. You got to see it like eight times. Exactly. We were all dreaming. I'm just like, let me just look at this all again. That's my Antonio Brown summary.

Biggest loser of the weekend, Philip Dorset? Yeah, yeah. No, he'll be fine. I don't know. I'm not worried about Philip. Yeah, the best game of his career. Yeah, so he's not a loser. Don't worry about Philip Dorset.

That was the most crisp passing offense we've seen from the Patriots in a long time when you say, like, they were just, I mean, they did everything almost perfectly. You know, after they settled in, there was a few early throws by Brady that were a little shaky. But then from there, they were just extremely crisp. Dude. And then add Antonio Brown into that, that is just going to be unfair. And then obviously, Gronk's going to come back in a couple weeks. And all of our worst nightmares will come true. Brady had two or three ducks that he threw over the middle in the first half that I was like,

is he done? He just wanted to give you hope. He launched two balls that went 50 yards in the air. I was like, I didn't think you could still do that. You know what's terrifying is they don't even use Josh Gordon. Like they're like, do we want Josh to score now? All right, what has it been 30 minutes? After the game he said it, Josh Gordon sent his press conference,

you know, it's the first game, we'll get better. And I was like, oh, shit, he's right. But anyway, let's not dwell on the Death Star. Let's dive into the less fun news of the week. This is Next Man Up where we're going to discuss injury news every week and then also the fill-ins that are- Potential ads, yeah. Yeah, the potential ads for waivers.

So let's just dive in. So the first one, this is one of the first injuries of the day, also one of the higher drafted players. Tyree Kill on the Chiefs, injured his shoulder. Clavicle thing? I don't know what it is. That's the technical term, yeah, clavicle thing. Yes.

In Rap Report of NFL Network said one of those not that helpful reports, he said it could be a few games or he could be put injured reserve, which, all right. But Mikul Hardman, who the Chiefs drafted in the third round last year, played 78% of snaps, and then Sammy Watkins had a casual 198 yards and three touchdowns. So, D.K. Mikul Hardman's own on 15% of league. So of all the receivers this week, is he probably the best one to grab? Yeah, I mean, I assume so.

I think it just, first of all, I think it boosts Watkins into the stratosphere, like the wide receiver one, you know, tier. I mean, he looked really, really good. He, for the first time that I can remember, looks like he's worth his cap hits with the chiefs. Did you know those cap hits this year? 19.2 million and in 2020, 21 million?

Yeah, quietly, the chiefs now, him and Hill are actually two of the highest 10-paid receivers in football by annual average value. Somehow, Watkins is only still 26 years old. Anyway, he's the clear number one in there until Hill gets back. So that's a major, major boost to Watkins.

I think Hardman is a good, he's a good stash, at least. I mean, he played 78% of the snaps yesterday. He only got one target. He didn't have a catch. if you're really expecting regular production from him, that might be asking a little too much. I think he's kind of one of those big play guys

who could get maybe like two or three targets a game and maybe a touchdown kind of thing. If you're looking for a flex, at least in the short term, that's probably how I'd classify him. Yeah, I mean, it's worth noting. I mean, the Chiefs pretty nakedly drafted Hardman for his speed. He's ran a 4-33 in the 40-yard dash,

which is the 99th percentile among wide receivers. and they pretty nakedly drafted him when they thought that Tyree Kill would be suspended as a result of a child abuse investigation. Yeah, he was supposed to be sort of that speed element that if Hill was out, that's like what they could sort of replicate it or whatever. He slots in well to replace him.

But looking, and then one of the other bigger injuries of the day, Tevin Coleman on the 49ers, he hurt his ankle, he's undergoing test. This is we're recording this Monday afternoon, but it sounds like he will definitely miss time, how much we don't know. He had six carries for 23 yards before the injury. Matt Brita.

Did we figure this one out? Brita, Brita, D.K., which one is it? Breeda. Breedah. Brita. Okay. Rhymedes with Cheetah is what I was told. I totally knew that. So, Brita had 15 carries for 37 yards.

Breedah, I just love that. He's one of the tougher guys in the whole league. Like, he played through some. Oh, yeah. So Rahim Astard is the handcuffed now. He's probably worth picking up, but to be honest, I don't see Matt Brita missing. I think Brita will do very well in this role.

And then Jeff Wilson, Jr. goes from really just, I think the practice squad would probably be third string and special teams for now. But Brita, I mean, worth trading for, but probably too late, to be honest. And then Rahim Mastrichter might be worth a handcuff if you have Brita. He's worth a stash at the very least just because the 49ers have tended to use multiple backs. I like Monster too, actually. He's kind of one of those guys that have sort of followed throughout his career. He's always just looked good when he's gotten limited chances. We all have guys like that.

We sort of follow. Next up, Darius Geis of the Redskins. Sounds like he hurt his knee. It wasn't super clear, and we didn't hear about it, I think, until this morning, Monday morning. Injuries to his right knee, not to left, which was the torn ACL last year. So that's, I guess, a positive, but it sounds like he's going to miss time. And after thinking, last night I went into, or I came out of the games thinking Adrian Peterson was going to immediately demand a trade or release because he got, for the first time in his career,

he was a healthy scratch. Now it's looking like he's going to be the starter again. So, yeah, it's kind of an interesting situation there because, like, Jay Gruden said some kind of, like, rude. He's kind of rude to things about Adrian Peterson, about, like, alluding to Peterson not being able to do special teams or play in the passing game. They were like, if we're going to line up and run 55 plays in eye formation,

then, yeah, maybe I'll have him dress or whatever, something like that. Pretty brutal comments. And then now he's going to be his starter. So see how that goes. But if you have Peterson and you might, because Craig recommended it in the offseason, you're in luck.

You're looking at some potential big carries here. Yeah, Peterson from healthy scratch to probably being the start in week two is kind of hilarious. But definitely worth the ad, at least for, it's a stopgap until they figure something out. But another player got injured, Devin Funchess on the Colts. He's their number two receiver.

Ty Hilton had a big week. Funchess left the broken collarbone. the guy's behind him on the depth chart are Dionne Kane who is 0% owned on Yahoo and Paris Campbell which is like 6%

I don't think either of those dudes weren't a pickup at this moment if Funchess's role in that offense can be replaced it might just be distributed

all around but I don't think either those dudes are worth adding certainly not at this point of time Craig I'm gonna are you

how do you say Funchess I'd say Funches It's like honey bunches of oats Oh like Devin Funches of Oh this is the one I always get wrong.

Yeah. And everyone on Twitter gets really mad at man. That's like a common fantasy name. Devin Funch is a I just thought that

that was just like because of the spelling but that wasn't the right pronunciation. No, that's the whole point of a pun pronunciation, not spelling.

I will say I John Kane is right and they were all wrong. Dion Kane to me is a little bit interesting. I agree with you probably not a pickup right away

but he was really impressive in the preseason last year, Tours ACL, came back. This preseason season. He made a bunch of plays in the preseason, including one catch and run touchdown from Brissette in the preseason. So I'm not saying he's necessarily going to be a big time fantasy producer, but he's

someone, Dian K and a little bit interesting. He's someone to monitor. Remember that name for sure. Chris Campbell might be in front of him in terms of like actual opportunities, but it's like that guy that D.K. mentioned that really deep guy on the Jets. What was that guy's name? Greg Dorch. Greg Dorge. He made the legendary Greg Dorge. Keep an eye on Greg Dorge, folks. He made the team out of the cuts. Like he survived cut down weekend. And then literally one day later he got. Shout out to my friend Charlie who knew Greg Dorch's high school career.

Wow. Charlie, let's call him in. Someone who is, someone who is, thank God, healthy, Juju-Smiths Schuster.

He was one of the, like, the four different Steelers to leave in the fourth quarter. Yeah, he was in there and like four, like there was like two minutes left. Yeah, he hobbled off.

He went for x-rays. They were negative. It seems like he's okay. I really just want to mention that, uh, Dante Moncrief couldn't catch anything. and my guy James Washington, who should have won the starting gig over him,

caught a 45-yard pass, and then ran out of bounds, even though there was no one between him in the end zone, and he just, like, veered out of bounds. I don't know if he didn't know where he was or what was going on. I think it was his momentum carried it out of bounds. Momentum's not real in football D.K. You're an analyst.

You're supposed to know that. All right. The next one, Joe Mixon. Joe Mixon tweaked his ankle, and Giovanni Bernard also just got, I think, more touches than we anticipated. 14% owned on Yahoo, Bernard is. Mixen is a low-grade ankle sprain.

Bengals are calling it day-to-day. He's probably going to miss some practice time. He could definitely miss the game this week. If he misses the game, Bernard's probably definitely worth flex spot. If not better. And if you have Mixin, definitely try to get Bernard because you want him if mixing ends misses any extended time. They just extended Bernard, too.

I think he got a new deal last week. That was interesting because that's a weird thing to extend your backup running back the week before the season. I don't think you see that too often. It tells you how much they like him, I guess. But again, it's, you know, in fantasy football volume, is king. And I don't know if he has the volume to be standalone value in redraft. But with Mixing out, for sure, he's a handcuff at least.

I think he will have more of the passing. Like, here's it. So, Zach Taylor running the Bengals offense came from the Rams. And I think the same way the Rams are committing this year with Gurley. I think everyone's like, oh, Mixon might be girly. Well, yeah, he might be Gurley 2019, where Giovanni Bernard has a bigger role. So we'll see. I like Gio Bernard this week.

And then last Nick Foles, this is sad. He broke his collarbone on a play where he threw the best pass that Jaguos have had in five years. And then Gardner Minshu came in who amazingly becomes the first quarterback from this draft class to throw a pass in the league. And then he looked really good. Yeah, sure, two quarterback league can get at him. But really it's more about how this is too bad for like the other players. Craig and I have a lot of Leonard for net stock. This is tough for us.

This is really tough. He looked good. Everything worked out. He had six targets. It was great. we're all excited and now everyone's going to stack the box on him. But at least if he's a massive bust, we can just say it's because of Gardner Minshu.

You guys might be... I feel like there's some excitement within the ringer ranks with this Gardner Minchuk guy. Can I tell you a real thought I had that ruined my day Sunday? At some point, I realized that Gardner Minshu would have a better NFL career than Daniel Jones. That ruined my day. From sixth pick overall to sixth rounder.

That's real tough. All right. We're going to get into some categories on some other ads for this week, but before then, we're going to take a quick break. Good news, NFL fans. Direct TV has expanded the service. If you're a student actively enrolled in a college or university, you can now get NFL Sunday ticket without a satellite.

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where you can find videos to send to your family and friends to help sweeten your request. And while we're here, let's talk about Pepsi. Pepsi takes all NFL celebrations to the next level. Whether it's a Hail Mary touchdown, a defensive stop on the goal line, or a Super Bowl win when it's time to celebrate it's time to crack open a Pepsi.

As a Giants fan growing up in New York, I regularly grabbed Pepsi to celebrate every Giants win. When my man Michael Strahan broke the sack record, took down at Pepsi. When the Giants beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl, Pepsi was there. Which year you ask?

Both of them. I was drinking a Pepsi when Plaxco Burroughs caught the game-winning touchdown when the Giants beat the 18-01 Patriots, and I was also drinking a Pepsi when Amad Bradshaw fell butt first into the end zone to accidentally score the game deciding touchdown in Super Bowl 46. One of the best touchdown celebrations of all time was Giants receiver Victor Cruz doing the salsa. And I would imitate him.

And then I would go get a Pepsi and eat some chips in salsa. Pepsi was my celebration drink when we drafted Eli Manning, Jeremy Shockey, and O'Dell Beckham. And Pepsi was there when the Giants inexplicably traded Odell Beckham Jr. to help me through my suffering. And for this year's draft, I was filled with excitement. And of course, Pepsi for the Giants to take our quarterback of the future. And they ended up taking Daniel Jones instead. But at least I had Pepsi.

Pepsi, the official sponsor of the NFL, remind you to always be celebrating. All right, D.K., Craig, we're going to go through our categories. Every week this season, we're going to be going and bucketing all of the free agent ads into different categories so people have a better idea of how we're thinking of them and how we perceive them. So first up, this is my favorite, the guy you're not supposed to worry about,

this is very 2019 name of a category. Very 2019, really very 2018 to be honest. But these are guys coming for someone's job. This isn't necessarily handcuffs or health-related. This is just someone is, like someone's coming for a job.

So first up, I mean, I think this is the one we're all thinking about. Right. The Rams. Got Todd Gurley, Malcolm Brown, Daryl Henderson, what is going on, Craig? So, Malcolm Brown did well. He played a lot.

He scored two touchdowns. Todd Gurley had zero. Todd Gurley played 70% of the snaps, and Malcolm Brown only played 26%. But he got 11 of the team's 26 carries, and Todd Curley got 14 of the team's 26 carries. So not great. However, I actually think people need to slow down on this,

I think everybody's freaking out too much about Todd Gurley. Yeah, we're freaking out about Todd Gurley. One, he looked good. He had like seven yards in the first half, and then he had 90 in the second half, 64 in the fourth quarter. They relied on him when it mattered. Malcolm Brown got that red zone carried,

the first one that scored the touchdown, Sean McVeigh said, he was like, it was just because of the play count that we're giving Todd Gurley. It wasn't like we don't want... So he doesn't want Todd Gurley to play that much. No, but it wasn't like, oh,

he's like red zone carries or something we want to not give to Todd Gurley. It just, it's not great, but it's not. as bad. I think Todd Sean McVeigh speaks with his actions and his actions where Malcolm Brown will have more red zone carries than Todd Gurley.

Darrell Henderson is not going to be plot twist. Darrell Henderson, not Alvin Kamara, as they said. All I'm saying is if that one carry went to... If that one carry went to Todd Gurley one of the two Malcolm Brown carries and Todd Gurley Gurley scored a touchdown, no one will be talking about any of this and everybody would be saying he's a value. I will give

you that. Number one, it was exactly what we've been told and had been thinking would happen this whole freaking time. It was a microcosm for, I think, what the whole season in their plan is to be for the whole season. They didn't use him that much in the first half. I think he had five carries or something in the first half.

And then they leaned on him down the stretch. It's exactly what they want to do, I think, this season, because last year he wore down too quickly and basically was useless by the end of the season. So, yeah, like... Tough but fair. I don't know. I just...

I'm kind of with Craig. Like, right now I'm not, like, freaking out. I do think it could change pretty quickly if Gurley, does suffer an injury or something, but like this is the plan. This is what they told us their plan was going to be. And then their plan was enacted and now everyone's freaking out. You make a really, you make a really good point because what we had basically deduced before the season was Todd Gurley's a starter. Malcolm Brown is the person who will spell Todd Gurley. Darrell Henderson will have a separate role that is not directly coming in for Gurley.

And the size of that role we will see. That is basically what happened. The only change to what we thought would happen was Henderson's role was smaller than we initially anticipated. but otherwise it actually was according to plan and the question D.K. for you is do you think Daryl Henderson's role going forward will be bigger or he'll just slot in as like belling Malcolm Brown every now and then? How do you think this looks beyond week one?

I feel like I have some very biased hopes because I have some Daryl Henderson shares that he's going to turn into like a bigger factor and I thought you know basically everything that we've heard and I've talked to a couple of people who you know kind of know what's going on in L.A. and they were

Bolt, a lot of people were saying this Malcolm Brown thing is real. And like he's ahead of Darrell Henderson. There's a reason that they brought him back and matched the number that, I forgot which team tried to sign him. Exactly. So Sean McVeigh's actions instead of the words.

The Lions sign Malcolm Brown to they match his qualifying offer and the Rams are like, no, we're bringing Malcolm Brown back. Right. We missed the end of last season's shoulder injury and then drafted Henderson. So that kind of told you everything you needed to know about their plans for Gurley. So bottom line, I think, and I was talking to Craig about this before the show, like, it might have just been sort of one of those things where the matchup dictated the usage.

He only got one catch for four yards. That's the worst part to me is that he didn't get any catches. And like Gurley, a huge part of Gurley's like production and his value in fantasy is because he's an amazing receiver. They use him on vertical routes a lot. They use him on screens a ton. They had like the best run. They did the best screen game in the NFL except for maybe the Chiefs last year. So that was a little bit concerning.

but it might have just been because they were playing the Panthers who have a very fast linebacker core with Keekley and Shaq Thompson and so I think it was just maybe partly that like we'll see I think it's right now like I wouldn't say completely freak out because like the bottom line is Gurley had almost 100 yards rushing like Craig said if he hadn't been vultured for that red zone touch early in the game we probably wouldn't be having this conversation so yeah I think it's just wait and see I do say

like I'm still a little worried Gurley will get hurt just because his knee maybe is more you know with arthritis situation happening like maybe that makes him more susceptible

to getting hurt who knows but if if this sort of like breakdown continues all year where they want to lean on him late I still think he has a lot of value DK is Malcolm Brad like is Malcolm Bradd your biggest

ad of the week whether it's waivers number one claim or free agent auction budget like like he's number one for you over Agent Peterson over Michael Hardman over everyone just discussed earlier. He's definitely really high up there.

I personally really like Marquis Brown. I think you guys are... We'll talk about this. We'll get there. We'll get there. But yeah, I think Malcolm Brown is a big one just because he's C.J. Anderson this year, right? He's going to be the guy that splits carries in a very, very good offense,

very good run offense. And, I mean, there's just inherent value there. So he's only owned in 12% of Yahoo! He's only owned in 12% of Yahoo! Leagues right now, so definitely go scoop them up. And if you're a girly owner and you're freaking out, Jared Goff told the L. times quote i started him in fantasy this week with him being todd gurley so you know what don't worry

it'll be good didn't todd gurly have arthritis last year on his knee i'm not a doctor um well and we're never really actually got confirmation about it but yes i i don't know it's who knows at this point all right next guy you're not supposed to worry about dk who's your guy you're not supposed to worry about ronald jones of the tampa bay buccaneers i mean we haven't really we came into the season not really knowing what the rotation was going to be there. And Jones, who was the second rounder last year and had maybe the most horrific rookie season of any running back, I could imagine. Yeah, it was tough.

It looked pretty good. He had 13 carries, 75 yards, 5.8 yards per attempt, yards per carry, I should say. He's only owned in 28% of Yahoo leagues, whereas Barbara is in 58% of Yahoo leagues. Barber only got eight carries for 33 yards. And so the breakdown, and I'm going to butcher this, but Daray Ogunnobes. Bawale. Pretty good. Is that close in the

ballpark? He got four catches for 33 yards. So the snap breakdown is still in Barbara's favor, Jones got 31%, Barbara got 35%. Ogun and Bolle. God, I'm probably terribly

butchering that. Sorry, 38%. So you gave it your best. Did I? I don't know. I'm trying. But yeah, so Jones to me suddenly becomes a lot more interesting.

Overall, I would, I'm mostly staying away from the Tampa Bay backfield, but I think Jones is sort of worth like a speculative ad to just kind of see if they, they start turning to him more. He's, he has like, I liked him coming out of USC. That was really tested last year because he was pretty awful in all respects, but he looked pretty good. He was like explosive. He was breaking tackles, kind of dynamic. And for the first time in a while, he actually started showing some of the things he showed at USC. so that made it interesting.

I like him way more than I did last year, but there's a cap on him as long as he's not catching passes, especially in third down for a team that will throw a lot, unfortunately. My guy, you're not supposed to worry about Robbie Anderson and Jameson Crowder, baby. Robbie Anderson was going like 50, 60 spots higher in drafts.

No longer, that would be the case. Jameson Crowder, 14 catches for 99 yards, 24 points in PPR, 17 and a half PPR. Crowder's 14 catches is a career high The 14 catches is tied for the second most catches in a game in Jets history And Robbie Anderson had three catches for 23 yards Crowder had 17 targets

Most of anyone this week A lot of targets man The early season reports were that Donald had the chemistry And the best chemistry by far with James and Crowder Turns out those were all real And as a wise chemistry professor once said The chemistry must be respected. You know, the movie Independence Day, when the guys, like, when the aliens come, he's like,

I've been saying it for 10 damn years. All right. That's how I feel about Crowder. I have a quick rant on this. Everyone's making fun of him in that moment for being abducted by aliens. They're at a meeting to fight aliens. And everyone's like, what an idiot. He believes in aliens.

The government's like, hey, guys, we need volunteers to fight the aliens. Why are they making fun of the guy? I had no idea you were going to have an independence day take. That is my angriest moment in any movie ever. Anyway, let's move on. This is actually, I lied before. This is my favorite category. Deceiving yards.

These are guys who are- It's a pun on receiving yards, guys. Yeah, we have a smart audience. I believe in them. But these are guys who are fools gold. You know, there's always guys on the waivers. You know, you can sort by last week's points that have, you know, big point totals. And then you never know if that means they're going to be like a top 20 guy the rest of the season.

or if they're just like a one-hit wonder. So these are guys who had big days who we aren't buying. Well, that's not necessarily true. We can't agree on everything. We put these guys in this category, but I'm gonna disagree with Danny. This is gonna be the most contentious one.

But it's worth grouping, like, four of them together. Craig, this is a passion of yours. Do you want to, you want to... I just feel like this is the who week, where your casual friend is sitting next to you in the couch. And he's like, who just scored? And you're like, T.J. Hawkinson. and he's like, who's that?

And you're like, oh, you know, he's just a guy. And they're like, oh, AJ Brown scored. Oh, wait, Terry McLaren scored. Marquis Brown scored. No, what this week was like 10 guys no one's ever heard of putting up 150 yards and two touchdown. So Justin Woodruff of Roto Underworld on Twitter had an unbelievable stat. He said since 1970, which is, you know, almost 40 years, there were 12 rookies that had 100 yards in week one, receiving yards in week one. So 12 and almost 40 years.

And on Sunday, there were four with Marquise Brown, Terry McLaurin, T.J. Hawkinson, and Egypt Brown. That is crazy. Capital C. The pendulum is swinging because for a while, like, rookie receivers couldn't do anything in the NFL. You know, like it was, there was some grim times for rookie receivers in the last few years. And so it was exciting. I liked it.

I mean, I think we should just talk about all of them, just run through them. So, Markis Brown, obviously, the biggest day. This was nuts. He's caught his first two passes for two touchdowns for like 100. 130 yards, which is nuts. Final line was five targets, four catches, 147 yards, two touchdowns, on 12 steps. Eight routes.

Eight routes. That has to be a record, right? I mean, I think it's a record by so much. It's like it basically is probably going to end up unbreakable. Yeah. Because two catch, your first two touchdowns being for two catch, first two catches being for two touchdowns is crazy. Yeah.

But being two like 60 plus yard touchdowns is crazier. and then it's all nuts. Here's what I'm going to say to counter this. He's not going to be this efficient, obviously, all the time. Oh, yeah, okay. But this is exactly, literally exactly why they drafted him, and it's exactly what I thought he would do in this offense. And I've been talking about it kind of all offseason.

They have an offense with the quarterback as the runner that forces teams to either play one high looks like with eight-man boxes or, you know, drop a safety down to take on that extra gap that the quarterback as a runner creates. So they dictate to the defense that you have to basically, frequently, it's not always, obviously, but frequently they're going to have to run these eight-man boxes, which opens up tons of green in the back end. And Brown is perfectly, his skill set is perfect for that. And we saw it on Sunday. He took a slant and took it all the way to the house.

He took a, he ran a route out of the slot where the safety picked him up like at the mid-level, and just couldn't run with him, and that was the second touchdown. I mean, his skill set is perfectly suited for this offense, as long as a quarterback is willing to toss it to him deep and has the accuracy to do so. Lamar Jackson did on Sunday. We'll see if that pans out all season, but to me, this is not surprising whatsoever that Brown did this.

So I'm super high on him. He's not going to have the kind of production we saw in week one all the time. That's obvious. But to me, this was not a fluke. I think this is exactly why they wanted him so bad. He was the best receiver in the draft, in my opinion, and I'm super excited about it. I think you should pick him up.

His upside is so much better than the last guy on your bench. I guarantee you. 130 plus yards and two touchdowns in your first two career catches is the definition of a fluke, especially when it came against a team that's trying to tank. Or not, look, whether they're trying to tank, they suck. Their roster's terrible. And their secondary isn't it?

Look, you've just beat good players. How many times did you watch the plays of it? Because you know who's watched it 20 times more? the defensive coordinator for every team that the Ravens will be facing this year. That is something that is now on tape and the Ravens can build around. But to think that...

Here's the thing. I believe in the Ravens offense. I don't believe that Marquis Brown will be the one scoring every week. I'm down with Mark Andrews at tight end. I'm certainly down with Mark Ingram. I'm down with a Lamar getting... But I am not down that Marquis Brown

will be the fun... I don't think that... If any fantasy analyst tells you this guy's going to be scoring every week, he's full of shit, I think he's... Marquis Brown is going to be the number one in that offense by the end of the season.

Pick him up now and you'll thank me later. Wow, I just got smoked. I didn't know this was the hottest take segment. I just got smoked time. That's my hottest take segment. We're just going to take that. While we're here, we're going to use that there. While we're here, let's just, Terry McLaurin on Washington,

I think that that was also a fluke. He had a huge day, but I would not want any investment in Washington's passing offense with Terry McLaurin going forward. I would rather pick up Hawkinson for sure. So here's the thing. Was Hawkinson not just throwing against the Cardinals, and we love Marvin Jones and we love Kenny Gowley this week

and it turned out it was just Danny Em and Dolan Hawkinson who got the play but is that replicable because the Cardinals defense is tough missing their top two corners obviously it was the best first game for a tight end

a rookie tight end ever since the merger I think he had 131 yards and a touchdown so by a lot obviously not you know that to me is more the definition of a fluke than what Brown did but that said I think he's

he's the real deal. I mean, he's like a very athletic, um, movable chess piece in that offense. They want him to be their gronk. It's not saying he's going to be their gronk, but he's a good player.

He's huge. He's got good hands. He's athletic. And, you know, I think that he's going to be a big part of that offense. I don't think he's going to be necessarily, you know,

like a super kiddle type guy in his first season that might come down the line in a season or two. But he's, he's worth a speculative ad, I think just based on, you know, like there's not a lot of, lot of targets on that offense. And so after Goliday and Jones, I'd say he might be the third guy.

I don't think Amandola is going to continue to have his production. I mean, one of his was he was just wide open downfield by himself. So all right. So this one, this next one is not a rookie receiver, but I do think he's fools gold. This is John Ross, the ninth pick in 2017, one of the fastest players to ever play in the NFL, one of the fastest people on Earth, finally had a huge day. D.K., I have a very simple question for you. I watched these highlights. it was like a roar shock test. I saw a safety commit malpractice and just turn what should have been an easy touchdown

with and let the ball go into John Ross's hands for the second touchdown. And basically that turned a good day for him into an excellent day, which 12 targets, seven catches, 158s, two touchdowns. Most of the 158 yards came on the two touchdowns, like overwhelmingly amount of them.

I was just like, all right, you can't bank on the Seahawks safety incompetently missing a, like, a past. No, obviously not. Yeah, no. You're the Seahawks fan. You were obsessively watching this game.

Is John Ross for real or not? I buy him because 30-year receiver, I like better than rookies. But otherwise, I still don't know. You know, so like obviously, I think you're right. That play in particular was fluky. I mean, the Tedrick Thompson and Seac's safety just mistimed it and jumped and whiffed on the ball. And that, like, allowed John Ross to just camp out under it and catch it.

So that play in particular is not necessarily repeatable. But the way that they used him in that offense, They had him, you know, running these deep crossing routes. They had him doing little, like, quick outs to take care of, to take advantage of the cushion that guys had on him. He was dangerous over the middle field. They, to me, like, there's enough there. And he actually left a lot of meat on the bone.

This isn't necessarily like, and, like, it's not necessarily a good thing, but he did have a couple drops where he could have picked up huge yards. Like, he left meat on the bone in that game. So obviously that one catch was lucky. But there were other plays where either Dalton missed him or he had one drop that he was going to take for another touchdown. I think he was like wide open on the sideline. So overall, the way that they're using him, I think is definitely sort of advantageous and it's worth at least a speculative ad. Like he to me is he has the potential to be sort of like Tyler Boyd this year, a third year breakout that you just weren't expecting.

You'd already given up on. I think he's playing in an offense that's new, so that adds some uncertainty and some potential. And I mean, so far so good that Dalton had a career high passing yards yesterday. So I think that's a pretty damn good start for Zach Taylor. Obviously, Seahawks past defense is nothing to write home about. But, I mean, overall, good start. AJ Green is out for a while, so that gives him more of a chance to kind of ingrain himself in this offense.

And then I think overall he just looked more confident. that might have been partly due to the fact that he was playing in Seattle where he played college ball and was like, you know, looking to prove himself and all that. But he admitted after the game he'd lost his confidence in the first couple seasons. And, you know, I think that's huge. I mean, we saw exactly the same thing happen with Nelson Aguilar. Over his first two seasons, I think he completely lost his confidence. And then in his third season, he finally broke out, got his confidence and started playing like a first round player.

So overall, you know, I'm not going to like bet my house on, John Ross, but I think he's at least worth an ad to have on the back of your bench because I think he could have a huge role on that offense. And if that offense is even a, like, even like near as good as they were in week one in terms of their passing offense and what they were able to do against the Seahawks, then there's some there's some untapped, I guess, like fantasy value there. I would rather have John Ross than all of the rookie receivers who did well, including Markase Brown. I think I would have, I would rather take, I think I would take Brown Markis Brown over John Ross

But I think that's probably the order I'd probably go Brown Ross And then Hawkinson Metcalfe McLaurin I think that's what I would do We didn't talk about DK Metcalfe Yel so I had a great game Let's we have enough DK in the show Let's move on But before we move on let's take a quick break

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Go to Hotel Tonight.com or download the app to unlock your daily drop. All right, D.K., now we're going to go through what's on streaming, you know, for all you cord cutters out there. We're going to go through our streaming recommendations for the week. you know, quarterbacks, tight ends, defenses,

it's always tough. You know, you never know what to stream. So, DK, there's so much in TV these days.

What are you streaming this week? You're really owning this bit, man. I think I had it and then I went over to work up right there. That last bit

was just too far. I would have said Hawkinson. He's only owned in 52% of Yahoo leagues, but I'm going to avoid the double up there.

Jimmy Graham actually looked pretty interesting to me in the Packers offense. this week against the Bears. Obviously, their offense was stifled for much of the game because the Bears' defense is amazing. And they get a tough matchup against Minnesota again this week.

But he was more, I guess, more targeted and more used than I was sort of expecting. I think people kind of had forgotten about Graham. He had six targets, three catches, 30 yards in a touchdown. Aaron Rogers trusted him in the end zone, threw it up to him. I think that's something that they can continue to do in that offense. Sternberger is on aisle. are and I don't think he has really any other threats for playing time. And so to me, Graham is a guy who right now he's 48% owned in leagues.

He's a good streaming option if you don't have anything else, just because I think he's a big part of that offense, that passing game in general. Yeah, the whole thing when Jimmy Graham came to Green Bay was like his catch radius with the jump balls in the end zone. And that looked amazing in week one. His grab, it just looked like, oh, that could be a connection. And maybe it just took him a year. So I like Graham a lot.

Yeah. The other thing is, like, we saw that in Seattle, too. Like, it took him a while to get sort of ingrained and interwoven into the passing game. And then he had 10 touchdowns. I think it was in his second season with the team or third. I forget it because he sat out a year with an injury. But, yeah, it just took him a while to figure out how to use him. And that could be kind of what's going on this year.

I think Graham was already talked about as a positive regression candidate based on his targets and usage in the red zone and stuff. in terms of touchdowns. And so, yeah, I think Graham to me is just like a good smart play at the tight-end position if you're looking to stream. My stream for this week, Broncos defense,

this is really simple. Vic Fangio is the Broncos head coach. He was the Bears defensive coordinator last year. They're going against Mitchell Tribeschi. It's a meeting with minds. If anyone understands what Trubisky can and cannot do as a defensive coordinator,

it's Fingio. That's interesting, yeah. He's Blake Bortles. I hate to do this to the guy. Bless his heart, Mitchell Trubisky. But he is the new Blake Bortals. He's keeping an elite defense from a Super Bowl run.

And I'm putting myself at risk here because we're recording this before Monday night football but full disclosure but so if the Broncos defense blows it forgive me. I was going to say like what is like they just sucked right?

Well you know then you know burn me. I don't know. I think your point about Trubisky is very salient though. I like that. If you thought he looked a little overwhelmed on Thursday,

imagine him when Von Miller and Bradley Chub are like oh we'll get four sacks today and then that'll give us millions of dollars in our next negotiation. So go bear Broncos defense.

Yeah. Craig, what are you streaming? Josh Allen, the one and only. He's playing the New York Giants. You just got shredded by Jack Prescott. Sorry, Danny Highfitz. Here's the thing about Josh Allen. They're in a bad offense.

They're in a bottom 10 offense, probably. And Fantasy pros is Mike Taglier. I just heard him say this on his most recent podcast. 90% of QB-1s are from teams that are a top-18 team in scoring. And in the past seven years, there's been one QB that's finished as a QB1 in a bottom-10 scoring option. I'm saying that that could be Josh Allen because of his rushing floor. And once again, he had a rushing touchdown last week.

The guy was the QB2 for like the last five games at the last season. And he's the one guy who is kind of the aberration in this pattern. So I think you could continue to ride Josh Allen and streaming him. He's too physically. He takes too many hits. He's not smart yet with like Russell Wilson doesn't take hits when he scrambles. Josh Allen is just like, yeah, sure. I'll just go head first into all these.

like, you know, to get four yards and third and ten, sure. I won't lie. I love the Josh Allen experience. I don't even care if he's good, honestly. It's just fun to watch. He's the best player in the NFL for Red Zone because it's like when Siciano, Chris Hanson, it's just like, you'll never believe what Josh Allen just did. I have no, I have no idea what's about to happen.

He's not. John Brown? I love it. It just looks like a touchdown every time, but you don't know for who. It's great. All right, D.K., how close do you live to the coast? Minutes. Wow, perfect.

Because we're about to go fishing, D.K. These are some guys we're going to drop some lines on, you know, maybe some bylaws we want to trade target or maybe got some guys on a team who want to sell high. But, you know, drop a little line and see if anyone bites. So any trade targets you're thinking about DK or people you're trying to trade away. Well, I mean, at the risk of sounding too obvious, if you have someone who's not really been paying attention to the news, I think Philip Dorset is a good sell high right now. Coming off of a four-catch 95-yard-two touchdown performance, he's about to get. replaced in that lineup, I assume, by Antonio Brown. I'm guessing they'll probably go with Brown.

I feel like they'll have a competition, and then they'll announce the winner of whoever is. Well, you just never know with the goddamn Patriots. But yeah, I think, you know, without trying to be too obvious, that's the big one. But then I think, you know, to get a little bit more into it, I like still personally think it's a good time to buy low on guys. like David Montgomery, the Bears, who's still playing in a timeshare in Chicago. We saw, you know, Mike Davis kind of get more play and everything like that.

I think by the time, like by midseason, I think he could be like a really valuable fantasy chip. And then same deal with Sony Michelle. Michelle was not effective in week one. He had, I believe he had like 13 carries for something like 15 yards. So obviously not a great start. And then Burkhead got a lot of play in the second half. I think down the stretch Like if we saw, remember we saw this last year

Michelle had an incredible amount of opportunities to rush as the weather got colder and all that And the team started leaning really really hard On their run game late in the season So I kind of still I'm still sort of in Michelle's camp And I think those two guys right now After a real bad week one

People might be ready to give up on them I don't want to be too simplistic When it comes to the Pats But the Steelers' weakness is the same secondary, not the front seven, and then they just errated them and just destroyed them even when they were up big. And when teams have a stronger secondary and a weaker front seven, I think Sonny Michelle is going to be a great play. And I agree with you on David Montgomery, Montgomery, because he looked great and did not have the numbers, did not reflect how he looked like he was

NFL ready. I feel the same way about Miles Sanders, to be honest. I think Miles Sanders looked really good. I almost threw him in there too, Craig. So yeah, absolutely. Yeah, Montgomery Sanders could emerge to just, you know, out of committees to just be like, nope, this is a chief executive. look, by-low, by-low is always a little bit risky because you don't know the future. And right now, these guys don't look great.

These guys don't look great. But to me, they're just so much better. Like, it's just so clear that eventually they're going to, like, earn more time. That's kind of a fantasy football fallacy at times.

I know the risk. I know the future, and it's Craig and I are about to make fun of Derek Henry. Yeah, so we're selling high on old D. Henry. Selling high on Derek Henry. The Brown's rushing. D is not good. In that game, I'm not sure what happened in it. But the Titans had like a ridiculously

unusual positive game script for how bad we assumed they'd be. Yeah, what the hell did have me? There's like three turnovers. Yeah. So, you know, Derek Henry had 150 yards and two touchdowns. And one of them was a BS screen pass that he somehow took 75 yards, which is never going to happen again. If you can trade Derek Henry right now for like an Aaron Jones or like a David Montgomery, like we just mentioned, I would do it. I don't remember who said this. So I apologize to who of the ringer week one viewing party said this, I apologize, but they just saw the Derek Henry

highlight of the screen, which was in full speed and Derek Henry sprinting, and they were like, it looks like he's going in slow motion. And I just, yeah, get rid of Derek Henry. You guys, I love that you're doubling down on this Henry thing. I think at this point, it's quintupling down. I literally had some doubts about my

fading Henry all offseason in this one. I'm quintupling down. All right, DK, we're going at hot take of the week. I already did mine. I did mine. Oh, yeah, you got your zone. Marquise Brown is my hot take. I love that guy.

I'm going to be in Marquise Brown's corner, and that's my hot take of the week. D.K. says Markees Brown is a Hall of Famer. That is his cool. Actually, the Derek Henry thing actually leads me right into my hot take of the week. You remember when Domino's did all those ads for, like, you know, our pizza's terrible, but we take this really seriously, and we're going to make sure it's better. That's the Cleveland Browns. They went 016.

They were awful. And then they go on hard knocks, like, hey, we're going to take this really seriously. You're going to have to earn your stripe, even though they are in Ohio and the Bengals are literally a tiger-themed team. And they, you know, they bring in everyone. They get Baker Mayfield, they get Odell, new celebrities to endorse them, just like Domino's. You know, they brought an evil Angoria, Richard Sherman, celebrities endorse. Brown's got celebrity endorsements. And then you have one, you buy it, right?

You buy this rebrand. And then you have one slice. And you're like, oh, still Domino's. But then you get to the really good. Here's the thing. The browns are the browns with better branding. That's my hot take of the week. But then you get to that really good garlicky crust. You're like, this part's pretty good. That's O'Dowell.

No, but no, the problem is you bought it. You're too deeply invested so you keep eating it even though you know it's going to make you sick. Okay. There. All right. Are you buying that? Are you buying that, Craig? Do you think the bounds are actually bad?

No, I don't even think Danny Hyvitz believes that, but I just wanted to do that metaphor, I guess. He loved the metaphor. He once forever reacting. Craig, take us out. My hot take doesn't have any food references. But why is it even worth talking about? It's just that I think Deshawn Jackson's going to finish is the top fantasy wide receiver in Philadelphia.

Oh, I love this. Spicy. Not Zach Earts, not Altson Jeffrey. It's my man Deshawn. Carson Wentz? He'll ghost you in the playoffs. Just like he'll ghost the Eagles in the playoffs. Once's the last time James could hit Deshawn with a deep ball.

Never. Carson Wentz knows how to use them. Even he's got a broken finger, it doesn't matter. He's going to ghost you in the fantasy playoffs. Well, actually, I shouldn't say, we have the same team. We have the same team. I invite him to my team. They're not going to, yeah.

This is a good, this is a good point though, Craig, because actually I forget, I'm apologies, I can't remember who put this on Twitter, but I saw it and I was like, man, that's really a good point. That was me. But it was like, the week one was all about like hot, nasty, badass speed. I mean, I feel like I'm like Jackson, Deshaun Jackson, John Ross, Marquise Brown. A lot of guys were just really, really, I mean, they stretched the field. they're a huge impact and it was just like speed kills

that's a really good point because that is the common thread between all the rookie receivers who did something was Brown's one of the fastest dudes McLaurin was basically drafted because he was really fast They're all burners

They're all burners who succeeded And I mean DK you've meant You've written a lot of this a lot Like a lot of football right now is like the fake is back It's not just matchup base But it's actual deception

Deception and certain traits skills That are hard to learn For young players Are how to shake someone Are a lot easier when No they just don't know the ball is and just run. It was Joe Goodberry of the athletic.

Beautiful. I said that, I believe. And yeah, I just thought that was a really good point. It was really interesting, like, just around the league, we saw speed kills. And so that's something to keep in mind as we go along this year. I might not kind of hold up all year long, but I thought that was a very big point from the first week. Speed kills, but the season is a slow burn.

Week one is down. Thank you, D.K. Thank you, Craig. Everyone, good luck in week, too. Hotel Tonight shows you incredible deals at cool hotels you'll actually want to stay at. Score an extra amazing deal with Hotel Tonight's Daily Drop feature. Unlock a special deal at a hotel selected just for you and snag it within 15 minutes. If you want to swipe again, you can unlock a new deal every day.

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