The Ringer NFL Show - Week 12 NFL Picks, Props, and Predictions! | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: November 25, 2023

Sheil and Ben are back and breaking down the Week 12 slate, but they address the injury to Miami Dolphins edge rusher Jaelan Phillips at MetLife Stadium in the first Black Friday game against the Jets. Is the AFC South division title pretty much on the line as the Texans are set to face the Jaguars? Plus, the picks, props, and long shots of the week! The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak Producer: Cliff Augustin Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Social: Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The ringer gambling feat is your one-stop shop for all things betting throughout the NFL season. From week one all the way through Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas, we have you covered every which way. We got our favorite futures. We got props. We'll discuss the lines. And, of course, we'll throw in a few parlets. That's a given. So whether you're a sharp or a square better, we'll be breaking it down in terms.

Hopefully, everybody can understand. We'll try to win some money along the way. So be sure to subscribe to the ring of gambling feed on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Extra Point Ticken. Chil Kabani here, joined by Ben Solac. We waited for this Black Friday game to happen. We thought maybe something will happen. That'll be worth talking about whether there was anything worth talking about, you know, is to be determined.

But the dolphins beat the Jets 3413. We'll touch on that game. But then we're going to move ahead. We got a week 12 slate with a couple really fun match. We'll get to those matchups. We'll talk props. We'll talk locks. We'll talk predictions.

We'll talk about where our contest stands. Benny Souls, you look full. You look like, you know, you've been eating well the last couple days. And you're feeling good. I am feeling good. Turkey came out and came out nice. This year. Hyper thought came out.

New recipe was good. Pumpkin cheesecake was delicious. Sweet potatoes with marshmallows. First time having those. Those are fire. It was a good, good Thanksgiving for your boy. There you go. So let's get a good Thanksgiving.

I hope everyone I did, I did too. I should say I did too, otherwise it's going to do what? Shield was going to blaze by his family Thanksgiving. It didn't happen. Don't worry about it. My Thanksgiving was lovely. Hopefully everyone listening, your Thanksgiving was lovely. All right, Benjamin, 3413, Dolphins beat the Jets.

Listen, I said my piece on the Jets last week. I literally have nothing else to say about the Jets. I don't think you have anything you want to say about the Jets. If you do, that's fine. I think just, you know, we were talking for 10 seconds before we came on. The big thing here, Jalen Phillips, Dolphins really one of their best defensive players. This is a guy with six and a half sacks on the season leads the team.

17 QB hits leads the team, really a high energy player. Like if you watch the dolphins, this is the guy, you know, he's a juice player for them. Second half of this game suffers an injury. And this is very rare that during the broadcast, they just came out and said, it's an Achilles injury. So nothing official as we record this, but that, obviously would mean he is done for the season. That's got to be the biggest takeaway from this game.

What do you think? What does that mean for the Dolphins defense? The Dolphins Super Bowl hopes. And obviously, we hope Phillips gets through this and has a good recovery because he is a very fun player to watch. Yeah, Phillips is pretty high up on the list of the best players who not everybody knows the name of, like whatever that list is of like not really nationally unknown but still impactful.

Phillips is really high up on that list. This is a legit, I got to worry about him in the game plan on Tuesday pass rusher. You got to think about how you're going to handle Phillips as an opposing offense throughout the week. Losing him on this Dolphins team dramatically changes the picture of their pass rush, right? Bradley Chubbs had a nice season, but Chubbs never really been like a high sack player, never been like a high drive-ending sort of a player. Manuel Ogbaz is probably a year or two long in the tooth. Andrew Van Ginkle, who's been a backup edge rusher for them, has been an offball linebacker under Vic Fangio. They need Phillips.

He is a critical member of their defense. And from all looks of it, that is a pop to Achilles. Like there's no, no shot that he's potentially coming back this season. That's a huge, huge, huge loss as we transition into winter football and into the playoffs. I can't remember if I said it on this pod or on a different pod. But all season long, we talk about schemes and we talk about development. We talk about matchups. When you get to winter football, it's about health and tackling.

How healthy are you? And do you bring down the other guy? Like, that's what matters when we get to the playoffs. Everybody's good. so it's just how healthy you walk in. Dolvin's a nice win against the Jets, establishing a nice control of the division, whatever. This is a massive, massive blow to their postseason hopes.

There's no sugar-coding it. This really hurts. Especially when you look at their identity, I still think the offense is mostly fine. It hasn't been as good as it was maybe the first four or five, six weeks of the season. That defense has been coming on. I mean, I would say the last three to four games,

they looked like a completely different unit than we saw early in the season. And I know you and I have talked about this before. I mean, you would expect that with a new defensive coordinator in Vic Fangio. So just when you're thinking about, you know, what does a path for the dolphins look like a deep playoff run, potential Super Bowl run? You know, in my head, I was thinking, well, they're kind of showing they can win in different ways. You know, they can win with their defense here. It just has to be the offense scoring 35 points. Without Jell and Phillips, we'll see.

You know, as you mentioned, they're not that deep there. It's not like they have someone who you just plug in and you're not going to miss him. He's someone you're absolutely going to miss there. So we'll see how they adjust there. But the dolphins overall in a good spot. I will say on that matter of health, I think Dolphins fans listening will be like Jalen and the defense is absolutely true. On the offensive line,

they've had no Robert Hunt, which is then a big deal for them. Bronn Armstead came back from injury. Doesn't look the same left in the middle of this game. So the same thing that might be hurting you on defense might be coming to save you on offense. But this Dolphins offense just hasn't been the same over the last month. And a lot of it has to do with those offensive. of line injuries. You can just tell how much it affects their running game and much it's

slowed down this offense. You get Hunt back. You get Toronto Armstead, hopefully maybe like sit him a week, actually get him up to full health instead of him playing at like 75, 80 percent like it looks like he is. And then all of a sudden, you're back to winning on the old formula where it's 37, 34, right? And so there's a chance that you get healthy on the offensive side and that saves you. But at this point, like dolphins are, I think the number one team right now, whereas you suss out the playoff contenders, they might be one of those teams you circle and go, okay, great regular season. But when they get their wildcard game, their division around game, the injuries are just too much and they can't overcome it.

A. Chan, another guy on offense. Yeah, right. You know, he didn't play today, but that's another guy who you expect to come back. So, yeah, I still think they're a really good team. Let's see. It sucks to, like, look at it this way because for us, at least I don't know how you feel. I feel like, oh, we're in the stretch run now. Like, I can really start.

All right, here's who I think he went. The truth of the matter is in, like, the next five weeks, there's going to be some devastating injuries that just take teams out of this thing. And I hate thinking that way. I hate even speaking it out loud right now, but we kind of see that every year. And it's something you forget about because it feels like you're so far along. But, you know, bad things still happen here down the stretch. So hopefully not too many.

You know, I don't want to put it out there. We're not rooting for it. But just something to think about. All right. Let's get to the headliners for this weekend. Benny Souls. What do you got? There were, you know, there were a couple games.

I had circled here. I was sure what direction you were going to go in. What is your headliner for week 12? Jaguars Texans every day of the week and twice on Sunday, man. This is at AFC South. To me, this is the game for the division where the Texans right now are a game back from the Jaguars, but they do have the outright win over Jacksonville already. They win this game.

They will hold the head-to-head advantage, which means they have the tiebreaker for the division. You go as well and you look at the Texans remaining schedule after this Jaguars game. Ooh, baby, a couple games against the Titans. Well, I think, oh, no, I can't remember who that. They have one of the easiest schedules remaining after they have the Jaguars. A very light look. Fifth the easiest, according to our favorite, you know, our favorite website, impredictable.

Yes, the fifth easiest remaining schedule. Yeah, it is real nice. And so if they win this Jaguar's game, they get control of the division. They control their destiny, right? If they win this game, then a Texans win out guarantees them the division. And then obviously every game the Jaguars drop gives them a little bit more of a cushion. So this game might be square for the AFC South. And when you go, man, I mean, you look at any way you want to slice quarter,

backing. Since week six, C.J. Stroud is top five in expected points added for dropback and success rate per dropback and explosive play percentage. This is a significant sample playing like one of the top quarterbacks in the league, C.J. Stroud. I think that there's very clearly a bit of a trap door to be pulled out, right? Like, even at a game he played against the Cardinals, it's not that he suddenly threw three bad interceptions. It's just, oh, he had only thrown two picks on the season. And when you drop back this much, you're going to throw some picks. Like, it's just going to happen. Badded passes and wrong reads and miscommunications, slight inaccuracies.

Like, even if there's not a drop-off in the legitimate quality of his play, that those interceptions might come. Some of those bad bounces, that bad luck might come. And you don't necessarily get the same production. However, this Texans team, every single week I watch them, I am just more impressed by their well-roundedness. They have gone in my mind from like, I think when we talked about them in October, I would say like, this isn't really a playoff team,

so they have too many gaps. Like, they might make it, but this isn't making noise because they have too many deficiencies. To now that we're talking about them at end of November, I'm like,

dude, this is one of the better offensive lines in the league. This receiving court, anybody can get it on any given week, right? They have now proven that they can live on Nico Collins one week, Noah Brown the next week, tanked out of the following week.

Like this is a large enough sample slash to say that this wide receiver core, Dalton Schultz at Tident. They can hang. Devin Singletary has been an enormous deal. Cannot be overstated, Devin Singletary back to back 150-yard performances behind this offensive line. In the absence of Damien Pierce has Joan, hey, like I have fresh legs. I'm a professional running back. And Singletary, as he always has, he runs extremely hard. If there are nine yards to get, he will get those nine yards and no fewer. That has been a big part of the maturation of this offense. They can lean on the running game. They tried to do it against Carolina, that game that they

lost that weird one earlier this month. They weren't ready for it. Pierce's going to play that well. Singletary has really stepped into that role. And then defensively, where, like, they've had like 19 different starting linebacker combinations. It's like week 11 and they're still like, we're going to try Christian Harris at Sam and Henry Toa, Mike, and see how this goes this week. They're still just throwing stuff at the wall at linebacker. And every single week, that pass rush improves a little bit more, that secondary gets a little bit healthier. They still have gaps defensively, but they have rounded out as a team. I really think this Texan team is straight, better than Jacksonville.

And Jacksonville improved on offense last week. They made some of the changes we wanted to see. We talked about how they moved Calvin Ridley to the inside, some condensed formations, push the ball down the field. But when I watch these teams, I feel like the Texans are the better team. Accordingly, Jaggs are probably winning this. Like, let's be honest, I put way too much

behind the belief in the Texans here. Jack's probably going to win and make me look dumb. But I think the Texans have a great shot to win this game, great to control the AFC South, and then potentially play a home playoff game. And I think that that would be one of the biggest stories of this season. if that's where we land. And the leverage for that storyline is this upcoming game Sunday against the Jaguars. Can't wait. Yeah, it is a real. I went back and forth on this pick

in my column. This isn't going to be one of my blocks of the week. I ended up picking the Texans plus one and a half. I just felt like you. I mean, I've watched both these teams. I think every week this season and I feel better about the Texans right now. Now, having said that, this, you know, if the Jaguars win this, my narrative will most likely be, all right, the Jags have kind of figured it out here. You know, I said last week, I thought that was the best their offense has looked all season long. That was the best Trevor Lawrence says, look, so far this season, it could be as simple as that knee is feeling better. So obviously, they have a chance to just kind of light it up in Houston and saying, no, no, no, this is still our division. We're going to win this thing. But, man, C.J. Strat,

I know, you know, the three interceptions last week, but I thought that first half is just like as good as he's looked. I mean, I think he threw for 259 yards in the first 15 for passing first down. in the first half of that game. It's incredible. We've now seen the three interception game and we're not scared, right? Like we've now seen like the, oh, he's an aggressive driver. They have some turnovers in the red zone. We've now seen that game from him and we're still all the way in, which is a testament to how well he's playing.

Yeah. Right. Yeah, no, and to his personality. I think I mentioned it early on where I'm like, I love his press conferences. Like he might be the most likable quarterback in the NFL just from a personality standpoint. already when you hear him talk about his game, his teammates, his family, I mean, all those things. It's been really fun to watch. I don't think there's definitely not like five players. I enjoy watching more than C.J. Stroud right now. And I wasn't even, I wasn't someone who during the draft was like, CJ Stray is my guy. Like, no, this is just based on what I have seen through

11 weeks of the season. Every week, I'm like, yes, I want to watch that game because I know he's going to push the ball downfield. I know it's going to be fun. I know they're going to try stuff. And he's just, you know, he's a new character in our favorite TV show, as one might say. You're right. This is our favorite TV show every Sunday we're watching. And now we just have this guy who even if you thought he was going to be good, no one thought he was going to be this good right away in this situation. So are you still now a couple of weeks ago, you and I, what was the game? What was the Jags game? We were talking about August before the Niners. And we're like, yeah, you know, statistically they're very good defensively, but we don't fully trust them. I'm kind of still there with them. You know,

they're sixth in DVOA. The Texans are 18th in defensive DVOA. I actually don't see a huge difference between these two defensive units. I think they're pretty similar. We'll see what the numbers look like by the end of the season. But yeah, I don't think the Jaguars have enough defensively where I'm like, ooh, I'm scared about whether Houston can move the football here. Yeah, I think that the injuries to the secondary has been a big part of Jacksonville's like broady-lookingness. And Tyson Campbell is expected to be out against the Texans. Doug Peterson said a hamstring injury probably still not going to play. I think that when you saw that Niners game,

you just saw firstly how easy it was for the wide receivers to win on the outside, win one-on-one. And with the Texans, again, like the names don't ring the way other names ring, but they have shown us, hey, we can get 150 pounds or no brown. Like, we have no problem getting our receivers open schematically. I think they can win those matches as well. So I think that outside corner weakness is the thing about the Jaguars that makes them feel a little bit paper-tigery,

because who are you going to run into in the playoffs? it doesn't have receivers they can throw it to. Like, go one. That's what the top teams do, and that's where you're susceptible. And then the other thing is that you have a chaos defensive front, you know, blitz looks and bring linebackers down and change perspectives.

And all of that is good. Like, that's good schematic work. But when push comes to shove, I don't love your pass rush on individual merit. And in this world where, okay, Josh Allen, you try to hide him.

You put them up against, you put them opposite Laramette Tunsell. Sure, like you get matchups that you, you can like there with Josh Allen, but otherwise, and there's not enough on the defensive line that scares me in terms of punishing Stroud or punishing any quarterback really pressuring him. And so the things about the Jaguars that don't pass the sniff test to me are the things that stop elite passing offenses.

Guess that's what you run into in the postseason. Those are the best teams. And so that's why for me, like, all right, numbers look good. But when you lose, you lose to the thing that the best offenses typically do. And so for me, it's like, ah, I feel like you're a bit of a poser in that regard. Yeah, they'll listen, they'll show me something. If they can slow down, this Texans pass the game, I will revisit these statements and say, okay, all right, they showed me something here.

It's going to be a fun game. I mean, that could just be two of, you know, two of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL, going at it in a big game this year for hopefully what's the first of many, many more meetings to come. All right. Monday morning storyline, Benjamin. What are you got? What are we talking about Monday morning after week 12?

What was your headline? Was it also Jacks Texans? You know what? I had two, and that was my main one. And the other one is going to be, I'm going to get two later. So I figured, you know what? I don't need to repeat what I'm going to say. Yeah.

All right. I was like, what if this is on me already? My, my, my, my headline. I will say I'm impressed there. Yeah, that's a nice job out of you, you know. Oh, I got, I'm trying to make sure I know what's on. Friday evening, holiday weekend. And you're just, you know, you know, the structure of the show.

That's a good job. I'm dialed in. My Monday morning headline is going to be about the Canada list offense of the Pittsburgh Steelers. And it's going to say, you know, Pittsburgh to the playoffs. They get the Jake Browning-led Cincinnati Bengals. I'll give you a spoiler alert. I'm on Steelers minus one and a half later in the show. I love, like, man, doesn't this just feel like the Josh McDaniels Raiders?

Doesn't this just feel like such a nice? Oh, the locker room is freed. Everybody is happy. We're going to run mostly the same stuff schematically anyway, but we're going to feed our stars a little bit. We're going to get a big George Pickens catch. We're going to make Nashi Harris happy with a touchdown. And all of a sudden, decent offensive performance, maybe even strong offensive performance in this game, that Bengals defense, highly susceptible to the explosive play. One of the worst defense is defending explosive play, both against the run and against the past.

I think that you're going to see a good offensive outing for the Steelers, a nice mouthwash day. And it's all. Canada is gone. and we have our platoon approach, and Sullivan is calling plays, and our running backs, coaches, and as a coordinator, and we're all together, Mike Tomlin, culture, we knew we could do this. I think you're going to see a nice, big, strong, emphatic win for the Steelers over division rival Bengals team.

And when you get that, you're going to get Pittsburgh squarely back in the AFC playoff picture, and you're going to get that, hey, listen, without Canada, he was holding this team back. Like, this Steelers team might actually do something. I have weirdly become a Steelers buyer in the month of November, and I'm still buying stock. It's wild. You're picking them more than I am. I think this offense is going to have a good short-term improvement.

I don't think they're going to become top 10 tomorrow, but I broke them down on the play sheet for the ring on YouTube this week. I do think this offense can jump to league average numbers pretty quick, just with no Canada. And so I'm buying Pittsburgh stock, and I'm buying a Steelers win and a playoff push in Pittsburgh. I can't get over it. I mean, yeah, I'm just shut light, roll reversal, you know.

I tell you, so like, I tend not to get it. I can't touch it. Yeah. I try not to get too like, I've been watching the film and like this and that and the other thing. But I tell you, watching a lot of Steelers film, I think like, I think that rookie right tackle Project Jones is starting to play some good ball. I think that I have a lot of struggles with Pickett.

I think that George Pickens is playing really well, better than I expected. And that route tree is really holding him back with Canada. I think you'll see that get fixed this week. Deontay's playing great. Jalen Warren is a real legit player. Jalen Warren has gone from like, ooh, cool, you know, change of pace back to like, dude, this dude doesn't go down on first contact. Like, this is a, you could lie and share this guy, no problem.

And then Naji Harris, who often gets the short end of the stick because he's not Jailen Warren. Nogh's playing fine ball this year. Like, Noges is a strong player. He often doesn't go down first contact. He understands his assignment well. He knows where his bread is buttered. Like, they have viable weapons. Darno, Washington.

I've been impressed with Washington in the run game as well. Like, this team can just hammer the football down your throat in the running game. if they decide to. And when the running backs coach becomes offensive coordinator, Ben takes a couple notes, goes like, all right, Steelers, 45 handoffs incoming. I think that'd be great for them against this, this Bengals defense. So I'm, uh, when I watch the Steelers on film, I look at this office. These are good pieces here. Like, this looks like the better offense in the league look like. I think Canada was holding them back in a big way. I also think Kenny Pickett was, but we don't address that problem this year. We address that next year. You know what's weird.

They're 14th in offensive DVOA. I think that would shock people who probably think they're 30th. They've played the hardest schedule, I believe, of opposing defenses in the NFL this season. Before that Brown's game last week, they had like two or three weeks where it was like, oh, okay, are they figuring some things that? It wasn't like, they weren't school in 35. Don't get me wrong. But it was like, oh, okay, they're definitely playing better than they did earlier in the season. Here's my real question. If they have 400 yards of offense in the first non-canada game, what do we do? I feel like we We've got to get a cake. It's got like a 400 candles on it in celebration.

How incredible would it be if the first non-Canada day they break the streak? If they're at 325 and they touchback, they're up by 17 points, a minute 20 left, you better be driving down the deal of it. Get 75 more. Get the four, big 4-0. Oh my gosh. That would, yeah. How many, I wonder, how many games will it take them?

Will they do it this season after? Matt Canada could not get them there for three. I hate when, you know, one of your good nuggets just dies like that because the guy gets fired. You know, that hurt my feelings a little bit, but I will somehow power through. Okay. My Monday morning storyline. Logjam atop the AFC, who's winning the number one seat? I mean, have you looked at these standings?

I know you've looked at standings. But they're wild right now. Ravens right now, eight and three. Okay, so they own the one seat. Ravens go to Los Angeles. They're three-point favorites against the Chargers. That's, you know, bladed to be a tough game. If they lose, Benjamin, we could have five, eight-win teams,

Ravens, Chiefs who are at the Raiders, Jaguars who are at Houston if they win that game against the Texans. Dolphins already got there. The Browns, if the Browns win in Denver this week, they will have, and the Ravens lose, they will have as many wins as any teams. in the AFC already every AFC team has at least three losses. That's wild. There's no like juggerna. This team's got a two game lead. Let's see. No, it's still like the NFC. We'll see what

happens with the Eagles, but they have that lead. They have that two game lead on the rest of the competition. It is so bunched atop the AFC. And by the way, the Ravens, even if the Ravens win this game, Ravens have the fourth hardest remaining schedule and they've got some injuries. I'm going to touch on that game. a little bit later. But so even if they win this game, it's not like they're likely to just pull away with this thing. So this race for the number one seed,

which is huge. You get the buy. You're the only team that gets the buy in the first round. To your point earlier, so much is about health. The team that gets that bot, that's a big advantage. I know it's not every year that that team ends up going to the Super Bowl.

I get that, but still, ask any coach, ask any player. It's just a huge advantage. Plus, you get home field throughout. So I feel like this AFC,

race for the number one seat is really, you know, it might come down to week 18. I don't think there's going to be teams able to rest their starters in week 18. And I think that will be a big talking point, maybe even on Monday's extra point taken to stay. All right, who is, who is going to be the one seed in the AFC? So that's where I'm at with my Monday morning storyline. It's, I think when the Powers that B moved to a seven team per conference, playoff structure that ended up with just one buy in each conference, this was the sort of December they were envisioning, right? You just have a muck of three lost team, you know, two lost team, and you have so many

teams who can legitimately vie for it. And you said they're like, oh, you know, you may not realize like, oh, it's so valuable. It deserves to be like, highlighted, underlined italics bold. The buy is humongous. It is, when there is only one of them, it is an enormous difference because of the rest advantage. We're talking about these injuries because the ability to get a free week for your guys. A week off of football is incredible that late that season. It is humongous for your team. There is no question that you should be going all out pedal to the metal if you're in the

AFC trying to get to that one seat. It is worth the exertion. And so I absolutely agree that this race to the top of the AFC is critical. What it also does, and that I think is a cool thing and important thing. We haven't seen too much of that this year because like the Ravens haven't played the chiefs and the chiefs haven't played the bills yet or whatever is it makes those individual games also really high stakes. It's really important when you talk about why that structure was changed. And so this is the sort of season that I think really, really highlights how big of a deal the one seat is now. Previously, one seed guaranteed home field advantage, but two seed got to buy. Now home field advantage and buy you have to go out for it. You really, really do. And so these

late games come important. And then you start to get into trap game territory too, where all of a sudden, you know, we're going to be with a Ravens team that's a nine point favorite against the, you know, whoever they're playing the Titans or something. They already lost to the Titans. They've been the Titans, lost to the Colts. Playing some bad AFC team and it's a look-ahead spot and all of a sudden the fourth quarter to a one-score game because they got sleepy against a young team that's really trying to play out the rest of the season. Those games come really charged as well. And so I agree that that AFC one seed, it's excellent how tight it is. And it's cool how that schedule tweak has made this, this tight race all.

more important. That's one of the most exciting parts about the last like three weeks of the season is when it looks a team you're sure has something locked up and all of a sudden they they are huge favorites and they just lose a game out right and everyone's going, oh my gosh, what is happening here? We are so close to the, uh, if X loses and Y wins tweets, the ones are my favorite tweets, right? We just get like approaching week 15. Love a playoffs scenario. If Steelers, Red, Cowboys lose and if this changes than this, the other thing over here, over that. It's always just funny to be like, all right, because one of those tweets is going to hit, and then

that's the one where you're like, that's crazy, here we go, it happened. So you always got to get those out. I can't wait. I'm getting goosebumps. Playoff scenarios. What's better than that? All right, take a quick break. We will come back, and we got to get to the picks. We got to turn this thing around. All right, we'll be right back.

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My Sundays have been ruined by this contest and by my picks. My picks, I swear. I was 50 year doing the picks column. Pick every game. My worst record so far. I got to turn it around. football left.

If not, I will be blaming Solek. But Solek, in terms of our competition, how are we looking? I know it was looking real ugly at one point last week. Yeah. So you and I, at the end of the one o'clock games, we had made eight bets and we had lost eight bets. And so, man, dude, I promise, like, we're good at this. I promise we are. It's just the results would have.

I'm not saying that for myself. This band speaks for himself. No, we're bad at this first. sure. Yeah, at the end of the 1 o'clock games, we had lost eight bets. I had a, I had Steelers money line. I had Steelers to cover against the Browns. Deonti Johnson's open for a touchdown to take the lead. Piggins doesn't throw it. I'm over it. It's fine. So I lose those. Dolphins against the spread. Three fumbles for that team, sat on against the Raiders. I know that Dolphins game was driving you nuts. It was grinding your gears. So you and I were a paired on that one.

we missed to that one. You had Titans plus seven against the Jaguars. That was a blood path of the game. Chargers minus three. I'm picking. At least you can point to one, but some of these for me, like halfway through the first quarter,

I'm done. It's so embarrassing. Sorry. Chargers minus three on the road against the Packers. Chill. Our Packers, action point taking team.

A lot of playoff scenarios for these are after the win against Detroit, very live Green Bay Packers. Yes, sir. Never down. outed over here. Extra point taken. So charges minus three

against the Packers was a miss. But you hit your long shot. Of all bets to hit your long shot. Dolphins hitting the spread, Cowboys hitting alternate spread, and Christian McAfra going over 66.5 rushing guards, which he did very late in the fourth quarter against the Tampa Buccaneers.

We were landing that one. I had Rams plus one against the Seahawks, one on a missed field goal. So that's what we're living with right now. Jill, for the first time since week one, you lead in our competition. Right now it is,

32 to 30. I'm downed by two points. Yeah, after week two, I had a lead. It's been me with a lead or tied since then. We are now on the season. I am 51.5% against the spread. You are 42.4% against the spread. We are at 45.7% on our locks of the week against the spread. It's not pretty, but folks, it's changing this week. Huge news. We decided we met and we said, all right, the throwing has been fun. Obviously, it's been great for content. but it's probably time now to start inserting real picks, not fake picks, actually bringing the numbers up. Incredible end of the season.

As the Packers improve their season, so shall we improve our season. Now it gets serious into Week 12. I hope so. I'm two and two as we record this, three Thanksgiving. You know, I had the Packers. I felt good about it. I'm like, all right, let's go. Give me a three and no Thanksgiving.

That did not happen. I went one and two. Then I got the Dolphins on Black Friday. So two and two going into Sunday, I can live with that. Other stats here, props on 55% you're 36%. Long shots on 36%, you're 27%. And locks on 42%, you're 52%. So yeah, very different the ways we've gotten through these numbers.

But hey, it's tight. So hopefully that's entertaining for you, the listeners. You can make fun of both of us and we'll see how this thing plays out. All right, quick reminder, the prop of the week and the three picks against the spread, the three locks. Those are each worth one point. And then we do a Kapadia Solak long shot. We know it's not a real person long shot. But listen, we're struggling here. Got to be plus 150 or better. That's worth three points. So you can get a total of seven points every week. All right, Solac. Come on. Let's go. Two seven and no weeks. We can do this. We can restore our names. What's your prop of the week?

We do. I do. I wait and lose. However the competition ends out is how it ends out. Someone needs a sweep week. I want to see a sweep week in the building. We've had opposite sweeps, failed sweeps, but we need to have an actual, someone who needs to get at least one. I think I will do it this week. Yeah, I mean, if you fade, there's the one listener who takes all, he puts all our bets into a parlay with wild odds. God bless him.

I think you're throwing your money away, but that's okay. Keep living, brother. The move might be, if you're a hater, if keep living, if you're a hater, the move really might be to just take the opposite. Beat us on every bed. You might have a better chance, but whatever. All right. Start us.

All right. Prop of the week for me is Saquan Barkley under 70 and a half rushing yards. Giants are facing the Patriots. Patriots is one of the best run defenses in the league. They are best in explosive run rate allowed. They are second best in just pure success rate versus the rush. They've been an excellent, excellent run defense this year.

Very much a past funnel defense as well with the rotating, the revolving door they've had at corner. This is a team you want to throw against. Now, obviously, when you have Tommy DeVille, veto a quarterback as the Giants do. Maybe you don't want to throw ever. But this team, the Giants are very willing to use Barclay in the receiving game in lieu of using him in the running game. And this is a game where he's a lot more likely to get activated as a receiver than he is as a runner. Even in these last few weeks in which Barclay has been quite productive, he's having a nice surge here as is healthier.

He really hasn't been doing it on high volume. He's had 13, 14, and 16 carries each over the last few weeks, and he's been hitting an explosive to get high numbers. So as long as you keep him from the explosives, which again, the Patriots defense is doing better than anybody else in the league this season, he's not getting Josh Jacobs volume. He's not going to just get to 70 yards tripping over himself. Obviously, the Giants have been having offensive line issues. Evan Neal, potentially out for this game. I like the Patriots ability to stop the running game. Bill Belichick defensively, I take away what you do well. I make you play, not your game. So I think he's going to make sure that this ball ends up in Tommy DeVito's hands, ask the Giants to beat him

through the air. And if they beat him with Barkley through the air, that's fine. Not necessarily on the ground under 70 and a half rushing yards for Sequin on Sunday. Bill Belichick for Tommy DeVito is just like objectively a funny matchup for, uh, we got to watch. You got to watch. You might grimace while you watch, but you got to watch. Well, that's a nice job by you. I don't know if you're paying attention to this in Luke's spreadsheet, but, but he has the grouch bet, which is when we go under. When we go under, so like six for seven on the year. We should be going. under on all these bad boys taking those grouch beds.

So that's a nice, yeah, that's a big number. When you said that, I'm like, wait, is it really that high? I will say, if you're Giants fan listening, the Sequin Barclay has like looked really good in this disaster of a situation, specifically in recent weeks. So let's just let the guy get healthy, get to the end of the season and continue to look like this. But, no, I think that is a, yeah, that feels like a high number where that's the one thing Belichick is going to focus in.

I'm not as smart. I'm going over, but I think you're going to like my over based on what you were saying earlier. I'm going with that Jalen Warren. Over 49 and a half. Looked at it. Looked at it for a while.

The Steelers facing the Cincinnati dangles. Jalen Warren is like one of the most fun backs in the NFL. Listen, this is not like a hips. This guy. First and success rate. First in yards per carry. First and first downs, Perush.

First in yards after contact, Perush. You watch a Steelers game and you're just like, give the ball to him again. Give the ball to him again. He's literally all, you know, you've got. And so I think, you know, this change in offensive coordinator. And it's going to be two guys.

I don't know if we mentioned that earlier when we talked about this. Have you been following this? Eddie Faulkner, the running backs coach is like the de facto O.C. But Mike Sullivan, the quarterback's coach is going to be calling the plays, which was interesting to me. So this feels like such a Tomlin thing. We're like, it's going to largely operate the way a usual staff operates. but like Tomlin's going to be like, we shared the titles with leadership.

Everybody grabs a bushel carry your own weight. I don't know. Tomlinism. But yeah, I brought it up in the beginning, like I said. I think like the platoon approach is weird, but when the running backs coach becomes the OC, the following week,

I would like to invest in the running back position. That feels to me, like, and with the way that they've rotated guys, I think Warren is the right call there. So last three games, Jalen, Warren, 129 yards, 101 yards, and 88 yards. Volume is the only issue there, you know. Right.

So, yeah, if Naji Harris is getting more, Warrant's only had about 12 carries per game in the last three, and that's been an upgrade from earlier in the season. But this Bengals defense, you know, we've been talking about it here for a couple weeks, 30th in DVOA against the run, and that Steelers' offense has been quietly to the point you made in Broderick and the offensive line,

a very good rushing team. You know, there's seventh in rushing DVOA. They've been very efficient there. So I think your call earlier is a good one. It's not like this is a group that hasn't done a single thing well. It's like there are some things that they actually do well or could be capable of doing well. And if you figure out ways to lead into those things, then it could look a lot different. So I've got Jalen Warren over 49 and a half rushing yards against those Cincinnati bengal.

There you go. Yeah, love the look. Next one. Yeah. Okay, there you go. Long shot of the week. What do you got? Yeah, I'm going to lean on what I'm doing better this year, which is just taking spreads for the competition as opposed to taking props, probably letting it out.

I like Rams minus five and a half plus 154 on the road against the Cardinals. Cardinals, man, I like Kyler back. It looks good. I'm very impressed with what I've seen with Kyler. I thought the Texans film was great, better than their final score would indicate. Injury bug bit him, bit him in a bad way. A linebacker Kaiser White, who's been playing well for them this season on IR, defensive tackle, Lucky Foto, start or run stuffer for them. He's on IR. Both will be out for this game.

Wide receiver, Hollywood Brown, practiced on Wednesday with the heel did not practice on Thursday. And when a guy goes from practice to no practice throughout the week, typically that's a sign that he won't be available. He is listed as questionable. Other wide receiver, Michael Wilson, also out for this game. And so if they're with no Brown and no Wilson, go out a spot where the receiver room is extremely thin. And then defensively, they've lost two of their better players here in this game. this is just not the not the strong group that you'd like to have not the impact players

for the Cardinals starting to lose them injury bug biting them at the wrong time meanwhile for the Rams you have Matthew Stafford coming back you saw him last week

I thought he looked quite nice playing for this game Cooper Cup intends to go for this game I don't necessarily think that Cooper Cup's availability isn't what this bet is hinging on for me if he plays if he's the 75%

if he leaves I still think they have enough at the wide receiver position past catcher-wise to be well. Running back, Kyron Williams, now this is the big one. He's coming back off of IR for this game. He's expected to be activated from injured reserve and play. Kyron was a nice player for them. It was a high-volume runner. It could be used out of the backfield as a pass-catchers. This was an impactful back for them. And their running game has suffered without him in recent weeks. Rams getting healthier at the right time.

Cardinals getting unhealthy at the wrong time. Do like the Rams here on the alternate spread, plus 154. Obviously, minus two and a half, which is the existing line for the Cardinals, is a line that I have in pocket. It's a line that would have been one of my locks of the week if I didn't decide to go this direction. Like that bet quite a bit as well. Rams just in a good spot.

We can't double up on these. I was thinking about it with some of these this week. Like, you know, I could take Jalen Warren with that and then I could make it my long shot and have like an 80 yard Jalen Warren game. You could take something, you know?

I love watching you learn about betting in real time. So that's called laddering. When you take Warren over 49 and a half but then also Warren 60 plus, Warren 70 plus 480 plus. Yeah. We were over that one early in the season.

I think so you could, you know, you could do that with the rims. To your point about the injuries, yeah, this line really flipped because the Cardinals, when I wrote my column on, when was that Tuesday night, were one and a half point favorites. And to your point, now there's two and a half point dogs with all those injuries coming through there. All right. I kept mine simple this week, too. Even though, listen, I had success doing the SOLAC. You take a little, you know, over here.

you take a little money line here, you take a little alternate spread here. It worked well for me last week. But you know what? I sat back looking at that Texas Jaguars game and I said, you know what I like rooting for on a Sunday from my chair? DJ Stroud firing bombs downfield.

Yes, sir. 300 plus passing yards, CJ Stroud, plus 182. I'm not even playing the EV, you know, get it close to it. No, you know what, 182, I'm good with that. Maybe we'll come up with a new system next season that rewards when you go a little, higher off the board, but here I'm okay with it.

Plus 182, C.J. Stroud to throw for 300 yards. That is my long shot of the week. His last three games. 336, 356, 470. You know who the 470 came against? Todd Bowles. You know who the Jaguars defensive coordinator is? Mike Caldwell.

You know who we used to coach under? Todd Bulls. There's some similarities there schematically. I think so. DJ Stroud when he played the Jaguars earlier this season. for 280. Yeah, that's one for him. That's one pass away from 300.

So I think he's got a great shot at this game script-wise. I feel like I'm safe. If they're losing, he's going to be chucking it. If it's competitive, he's going to be chucking it. If they go up big, maybe not. But I don't know. I think this is going to be a pretty tight game. Here's my concern with this,

Solek is that. We've talked about that Jaguar's offense before. And there are times where it feels like there's nothing Doug Peterson likes more than like an 11 play, 75-yard drive. So is this a game where the possessions get shrunk a little bit and are the jaguars able to sustain those drives and be methodical? If that's the case, maybe it limits some of CJ Stroud's opportunities. But man, he's such an aggressive thrower. He's been throwing for huge yardage totals. This is a big game. I like him in a big spot. I'm not all in on that Jaguars defense,

which we talked about earlier. I like CJ Stroud to throw for a lot of yards in this game. Yeah, no, we talked about that game at the top quite a bit. I definitely. think that, firstly, dance with the one that brought you. You ain't going to go, all right, this game's for the division, division rival. How do we want to play it?

I think, no, we're on C. J. Straub for the football on this one. We know our bread is butter. We're going to let him win the game for us. And then, yeah, that the injury is in the secondary

and the jaguar's susceptibility on the outside. Like, that's simply where you have to attack. You don't want to throw in the middle of the field against this team. Andre, Cisco, Andrew Wingard, those boys will hit you,

Ray Sean Jenkins, good safety room. And then linebacker-wise, Devin Lloyd, I've talked about Foyer Luicon, but Devin Lloyd's particular has played better ball. We're thrown to the outside, and that's what's going to work for this team. I still think you get those deep middle shots, certainly, that they're known for. But this is going to be a big shroud performance.

I definitely think it's a steep number, but there's a good chance. There's like a highly competitive fourth quarter back and fourth game, in which case, drows on cork in that thing. And that'd be fun to see. Give me a little OT possession, maybe. Oh, God, you know? I won't be mad about you. We had, have we had, like, an excellent OT game yet this year?

I can think of a couple like, you know, Seahawks Lions Week 2 was a real good. That was like 31, 31, when it went over time, there was a pick six. That was a good one. Yeah, yeah. So we have, we have. Just not a while. So let's get it.

Jack's Texans, the LOT. I like to see it. You know, I don't remember anything. I couldn't tell you. I couldn't even tell you how many OT games there were. All right. Nonsense prediction of the week. This one does not, you know,

that's not part of the contest, but we just go on the record with something. Thank you for whoever tweeted at me saying, you know, my one about, I think I said, Jay Glazer. would have something. Oh, no, I said something about the ESPN stack, but it was the David Tepper one and then Jay Glazer, his Sunday morning was like, oh boy, Tepper's not happy, Frank Reich's seat is hot. What do you got for this one? I have it just in that vein. This is the day

a head coach falls. This is, this, this, this is the last Sunday for a head coach, uh, somewhere across the league. This slate shield is ripe with like, tilting losses for coach. For coaches who are positioned to be fired. We have the Panthers and the Titans playing one another. You're telling me that the owner of the team that loses that game is going to feel like we should have lost to that team. Imagine if Bryce Young loses to Will Levin. Wait, is Brable?

I keep seeing all this Rable stuff. Yeah. I mean, is that, I feel, that feels wild to me. That feels wild. I'm very surprised by it. Diana Rusini of the Athletic, I had a source article. She was like, he's actually fine. markets-wise, he's just, he's got decent odds, like, to be fired.

Like, they're legitimate. And so I didn't want to totally ignore him. I don't think Rayble's going to be fired. But I think Panthers-wise, you're feeling like I gave Frank Wright the play calling back. Embarrassing loss to the Titans, not a good team. That's going to put a coach in a tricky spot. Think Patriots, Giants, as one where, you know, I don't expect Bill Belcher to be fired. We've talked about that in the pod.

But you lose to Tommy DeVito, owner's not going to be happy, right? That's an embarrassing loss for sure. Talk about Matt Eberfluse. The Bears are playing the Vikings on Monday night football after dropping a game they should have won in the division against the Lions. Now you're going up against Josh Dobbs, QB2 Vikings. That's a team you should be able

to beat. You lose that game. They're going to be fired up. We got the Buccaneers facing the Gardner-Minshu Colts, Todd Bowles. You lose to those Colts like that. A lot of the coaches that are in hot water are facing opponents where it's like, okay, losing to this team is embarrassing. This is a

bad, bad, bad loss. And we're getting to December where I think you would see an owner telling to a firing. Obviously, charges are facing a team that they're likely to lose to in the Ravens, but still they're going to be at home. And, I mean, Staley is losing control on the podium. He's losing control of that locker room. We've seen a lot of coordinator firings. We've seen a lot of Ken Dorsey get out of here.

You know, Matt Canada, you're gone. Now most recently, Jack Del Rio out of Washington. We are in our prime fire coordinator to pull down the seat era. we are about to transition into December, which is there's nothing left for you to do, the nightman cometh. And so I do think that this is the last NFL Sunday for a head coach, yet to be unseen.

We'll see who has the embarrassing loss. But you tell me the Panthers lose by 10 to the Titans on Sunday, wouldn't be surprised if Frank Reich is in a bad spot by Tuesday. So I think a lot of the names you mentioned would surprise me. I think the two that I could see that you have a best shot with for this.

One is Reich, obviously. I mean, oh my gosh. It's rare that the writing is, you know, so much on the wall about what is going to happen. And Tepper did this, you know, last year. He's not, you know, he's not going to hesitate when he just thinks it's time to do it. So, yeah, that would not, if they go to Tennessee, they get killed. He's probably like, what's the point? Why are we still doing this?

Let's just move on so that potential candidates know we have an opening here. So that's one. The other one I do kind of think is staley. I mean, if they get blown. out on Sunday night, you know, and there's just, players are upset. Maybe. Maybe that's because if they lose that game, I mean, they're really, right now, I think they're already at what under 15% to make the playoffs. This is like a must win to keep your season alive. So if they get embarrassed there, that's the other one I could see. The rest of them would surprise me. I'm with you. There could be

some embarrassing losses there. There could be guys who lose their jobs at the end of the season. I think Reich is certainly your highest potential right now. The one that I would say that's been reported, that I think could happen in season is Iber Flues in Chicago. They like, Chicago is getting better. Chicago's like, I wrote about them in the power rankings a couple weeks ago, we're about them in the hot read.

You watch them week over week. That defense is like Montesweed has absolutely helped. Like they add a lot of guys to that defense. It's improving. Justin Fields looks good. Win a game, dude. Beat the Lions. Think about what that Lions win did for the Packers as a franchise in terms of like

how you feel about Jordan Love, hype of your own guys, the amount of frustration that Matt LaFleau has had. Then you go and you get that win, you go, we know what we're doing. Like, there's this, there's fruit on the vine. Like, we are getting there. The Bears had that win in the pocket of 12 in the fourth quarter, gave it away. So if you're like, another, imagine they go to Minnesota.

They get a multi-score fourth quarter win and they give it away again. And we already know those reports like Kevin Warren's, a new team president. Like, they're potentially looking at a full wash and rebuild in the coaching staff and in the front office. I would not be surprised if they say, listen, our first overall pick is the Panthers. pay. Like we're not even in a spot where like winning or losing matters to our traves. We just want to win some doggone games. We want to feel better as a young team with young players. We got to get a coach in position who's going to win that game for us. I, this is the one that I have legit eyes on where I'm like, I don't really understand

super what you're bringing right now. And it feels like you might be a little bit lame ducky given the rumors that they're been. That one wouldn't surprise me. All right. That's a good one. Mine's also about coaching. I think there will be a Sunday morning rumor about Bill Belichick coaching the giant. You know, you got this Giants match up. Giants are three and a half point home underdogs to the Patriots. A loss here would make them three and nine. A lot of draft implications in this game.

Now, I don't know. Maybe Brian Dayball's fine. Maybe he's on. I don't know. But we all know, Belichick coached with that Giants organization for a long time, 1979 to 1990. That's where he really earned his rep as an NFL. coach eventually got those head coaching opportunity.

So I'm not predicting that Bill Belichick's going to coach the Giants, but I think it will be framed something like some in league circles, wonder whether the Giants stick with Dayball. Bill Belichick has long romanticized his time with the Giants. And there's one organization he prioritized if he were to leave New England. And that would be the New York football Giants. Some type of league, something with league circles. Something with league circles, something with Belichick, something with a Giants connection

on one of the, you know, maybe a Sunday morning pregame show. I will go with that for my nonsense prediction of the week. What do you think? Would you move off Brian Daibble for Bill Belichick right now? A tough question. Is it just straight up? I think I would, you know, this way surprised. I think I would say no to that.

Honestly. I would, I think I would take Belichick. I think I would take Belichick. but the fact that it's a thought to me puts the in a spot where like, I think rumor is good. I think some in league circles is good. I don't think it would have any legs because like a think through a thing. And the Giants are probably already going to make a pretty tectonic shift where they go from

Daniel Jones, here's $40 million per year to Daniel Jones. How does QB2 sound? I don't know if you want to make a quarterback transition at the same time. You do that. Maybe you do. Maybe you want to go head coach quarterback like the whole change, you know, whatever, systemic movement. But I think Dables largely in a good spot.

Can we find some way to make sure that the call between Arthur Smith and whoever's running the Giants about Daniel Jones? We need to get the full recording of that call. I just want to hear what the conversation is like. We talked about this on a previous show. I don't know if there's a hard knocks way in NFL films, a leak mandate. Roger, maybe he can do something. I can't wait for that phone call. That's going to be a fun one.

All right. Take one more break. We come back with our locks of the week. All right, we are back on extra point ticket. Here we go. Three picks against the spread. I've got three written down with the fourth that I'm kind of looking at saying, She'll, you know, it's kind of looking at me saying,

you sure you don't want them to throw me in there and replace one of those other ones, but I think I'm probably going to stick with three. Don't feel good about these as usual. My confidence is at an all-time low with picking NFL games. But you know what? Here we are. We'll see what happens. All right.

So you start us off. What do you got? My first one is a Steelers minus one and a half against the Bengals. This is one that obviously we talked about a little bit at the top. We talked about why I like this game. Bengals' defense giving up a ton of explosives. I also do like just the over in this game at 35 and a half. I feel like that is too low for the fact that Jake Browning looked like he'd be functional

when we saw him in relief of Joe Burrow against the Ravens. That's a tough defense to look functional against. No, no T. Higgins in this game, though. No Joe Burrow in this game to me means the Steelers are going to have a more comfortable day defensively. you'd be able to generate some turnovers that pass rush obviously is the thing that the Steelers make their hay with defensively. And this is a Bengals offensive line that's eminently getable. And that's a quarterback in Browning who doesn't have a lot of experience. Wouldn't I'd be

surprised we see short fields for the Steelers, the ability to turn defensive turnovers into touchdowns, turn three and outs into a good field position, time of possession battle. And like I said, I think offensively, the Steelers are due for a nice bump. Even if Canada were like still the coordinator, she's like, all right, this office is like, look functional. The Browns held you to 10 points. The Browns kind of do that. that I think of this, they're going to experience a candleless bump just because the vibes in the locker room improving. Some of the players are going to get what they want and feel productive and feel motivated accordingly. And they're still very well in the playoff hunt.

This is going to be a big game for them. Steelers minus one and a half against the Bengals is a big one for me. It doesn't scare you that it's only one and a half against Jake Browning. I'm looking at that going, what am I missing here? You just don't think like that. You're like, all right, looks good to me. I'll go. I see, I've been, maybe it's the Steelers.

The Steelers happened. you're just fearless. You had the Steelers last week, had to sit through that, and you're coming right back and saying, let's go Steelers once again. So, I mean, firstly, Steelers Browns,

I don't think I could have won that bet and felt good about watching that game and having bet on it. I didn't make that bet expecting to enjoy myself or feel positive. You can feel dirty when in that one. This one is just, I like to be in a position

to fade Jake Browning. I like being in a position to fade the Bengals without T. Higgins, kind of independently of who they were playing. And then you have a Steelers team where it's like, all right, there's been a lot of doubt in this office. It's been a lot of focus on this offense. But this Bengals defense is really just not a trustworthy group, which is weird because a lot of

the talent is the same. And certainly the secondary has been a change. No Cam Taylor Britt, though. I just like, this reads to me like George Pickens is going to get the targets that he deserves and the routes he deserves. Jalen Warren, who you bet on is going to have the day that he deserves. They're going to try to mouthwash out this offense as they look into December and looking to staying in that wildcard race. And this is a great defense to do it again. So I wouldn't be surprised if they're like playing for some points, playing aggressively and then, and then defensively, I think they're going to win against this line. It's just, I like the matchup a lot. I, I'm on board with the McDaniels comparison, you know, with these Steelers,

offensive players. Oh, that guy's gone. Let's go. Let's let's show them that he was holding us back and let's play well here. I did pick the Steelers in my column on the ringer when Solac picks something and when his lock overlaps with one of my weekly picks, 56.5%. So it came down after last week. We're doing right there. We're doing all right. All right.

My first one, I'm taking the Minnesota Viking minus three against the Chicago Bears on Monday night football. So like I say, bears are playing pretty well. We'll see here. Okay,

Vikings lost a tough one against the Broncos last week. I thought they thoroughly outplayed them. But there were minus three on turnovers. Now that is probably going to happen once in a while with Josh jobs, no doubt about it, but they had 385 yards of offense in that game. Bears lost a tough one

to the Lions as we maybe saw on Thanksgiving. Lions aren't playing their best football right now. Really what it comes down to is coaching to me and Brian Flores. Is anyone doing more with less on defense than Brian Flores? They are ninth in defensive DVOA. So cool. Right now, the Minnesota Vikings. I mean, look at the personnel on that team ninth in defensive DVOA. We've talked about his style before. Blitz heavy. He's blitzing 46.8% of the time, tops in the NFL.

Guess what else he's also top in? Rushing three and dropping eight has done it 96 times, more than any other team. I just think that type of thing is going to be hard for a Chicago Bears coaching staff to figure out, hard for a Chicago Bears' offensive line to figure out, and I think Justin Field is going to have issues in this game. Bears' defense, I think they're okay.

I know they're not terrible. They look competent at times. I think Kevin O'Connell's done a good job with that Vikings offense so far this season. Minnesota's at home. It's a field goal game. I like the Vikings to take care of business at home against the Chicago Bears Monday night. Yeah, this is, I get it. I like the way this Bears team has been performing down the stretch. I do think that they've been without fields. Now with Fields, obviously great game against the lines. They've just been playing better ball over the last month or so. They're a young team that's settling in. This is one where like, as we get closer

to Monday night football and we get some injury reports. Like maybe I'll get on a side. To me, I think this line's pretty solidly priced. I would not want to underestimate this Bill's team, who critically, has no real incentive to lose because the Panthers are going to be their top pick down in December. I think they're going to be a team that fights tooth and nail for every win

because they want those wins. Remember, this is a team that we had like, you know, we had memes like they, like, you know, having won since October 2022. You know, like this was a long stretch of losing. They're going to be fired up. And the Vikings are one of those divisional opponents. where it's like, hey, we can ruin a season here.

They're in the playoff picture. Let's knock him out. Like, that always has a little extra juice to it as well. So to me, I hear the logic. I think I'm a little bit higher on the Bears than you are. I think that's true. All right. What do you have for your second game?

Okay. Do you promise not to bully me? Oh, I wonder, I wonder if we're on the same side here. Okay. What do you got? Oh, no, no, we're not. Okay, I know what you're going with. What am I going with?

We're not on the same side. Yes. I, listen, I don't bully. I just have conversations, you know, tough conversations. All right. You know, like, in sports, be comfortable, being uncomfortable. Stupid line. All right, sorry, go ahead.

So, wait, so wait, what am I on? Falcons. Yes, Falcons plus one and a half against the Saints. Britter's back, baby, let's go! It was playing well without the turnovers. I knew he was all along, okay? And I never doubted, not for one second. And Taylor had to you was worse, which I knew he would be.

All right. Never had any questions about that either. And the Falcons are generally very healthy right now, especially on offense. Mack Hollins is the question mark for them in this game. But the backfield is together, Bejohn Robinson's had a couple of nice weeks now. Coming off of his Tampa Bay sickness, disappearance, whatever nonsense. Ritterback in control facing a Saints team where I talked about the Cardinals injury bug, the Saints, Marshawn Latimore and Michael Thomas both injured last week.

Derek Carr is coming back for this game, but those two. Two injuries are enormous injuries on either side of the ball. I was trying to figure out the best way to bet this Michael Thomas absence. You saw a huge increase of snaps for A.T. Perry, who actually like quite a bit, but no line for him. I'm curious to see what this offense looks like. They've been using Olaave more intermediate to deep, and Thomas has been their stick mover, but then also Rashid Shaheed is your deep threat guy.

And now it's okay, does DeWan Johnson fill that role? Do you move Chris Olave down? How much can Perry take over that? They're in a bit of a weird spot passing game-wise. And the Saints defense is unquestionably good. Like, that's how they've been successful. The Falcons defense still remains a top five, top 10 unit by a lot of metrics. This has been a good group.

The absence of Grady Jarrett has hurt them, but honestly, they've recovered from it nicer than I expected. And so the Falcons are a team that has good health entering this game, has the health advantage, home field, and much like the Texans facing the Jaguars, this Saints Falcons team, this matchup has huge divisional ramifications. Unlike that game, is still to be played twice. It's like Seahawks 49ers where we get this game twice. And so the Falcons still very, very alive, still competing for the top of the division, get this home game against the Saints team that does not scare me offensively.

They lost an important stick mover in Michael Thomas. And then defensively, obviously the Saints very scary, but the thing that has always hurt Dennis Allen has been mobile quarterbacks, has been quarterbacks who are involved in the read option game, involved in the running game, and can scramble. And we know that Ritter has been that over his time starting for the Falcons. I like give the young man a couple of weeks, reset your head, settle in. drawing Desmond Raider performance on out like the Falcons,

small underdog at home against the Saints. Oh my God, you're just getting right. You didn't even want to just wait one week and see what he looks like and then come back. I already saw what he looks like. I like what he looks like,

brother, don't you worry about a thing. I was not going anywhere near this game. I mean, honestly, if there was one game that I could have requested from the editors,

don't, I'm not picking this game this year. It might have been this one. I have no idea what's going to happen. I don't like either of these teams, I guess it looks like Derek Carr is going to play and return in this game. But like you mentioned, they've got a couple key injuries for the New Orleans Saints. I'm not good. I mean, I would under no circumstances be willing to trust the Falcons unless they were like, you know, big underdogs. And I was like, you know what? They can move with the ball a little bit. Offensively, I'll take the

points. I don't, I just could not take them as a favorite. It doesn't mean I'm going to be right. I could be wrong. But man, that would just scare me. I will say, like you said, this is a stay away game for you. A lot of games this week spread-wise where I'm just, oh, man, I don't want it. Panthers Titans got no idea. The ones I'm picking, I don't even like, the ones I'm picking our stay away. Eagles, Eagles, Eagles, I think that line feels like, oh, absolutely Eagles, right, 100%. That's a line where to me, I'm like, what am I missing? That's one that's, that's, that's stinky to me. A lot of lines this week smelly. This one, I like my falcons. I'm riding or dying with the dirty birds. Here we go. Well, that's a nice setup from Benny Solf, who is going.

host, we've had a lot of reps. I like the bills plus three at the Eagles. Walk, we cry it. This was three and a half. And I was like, come on. And then I checked before we record, it goes to three. But I'm like, you know what, she'll, you're taking it anyway. Don't second guess this.

All right. So the reasoning is the bills in two years have lost one game by more than six points. This is a consistently competitive team. The Eagles, could they blow them out? Yes, but that is not generally what happens with the Buffalo bills. They're in all of these games. They need this game so badly. They have a 32.5% chance of making the playoffs according to the New York Times playoff simulator. If they win this game, it goes up to 46%. If they lose this game, it goes down to 20%. This bill's team faces an uphill climb. They have

the hardest remaining schedule in the NFL per unpredictable. These are like playoff games to them where they got, they just have to win. So a lot at stake for Buffalo. We've talked about it on this podcast before. Buffalo's offense, so pretty good. I think they're going to be able to move the football, make plays. If they turn the football over, it's going to look ugly. If they don't turn the football over, they're going to look pretty good. Eagles, nine and one, I think they're a very good team.

I don't think they're a juggernaut. I mean, like 10th in DVOA, sixth in point differential. Last three games, they've been trailing it half time of their last three games, and they've won all three of those. Now, do I feel incredibly stupid here? Yes, of course I do. They're 23 and 2 with Jalen Hertz as a starter in the last two seasons in the regular season, and this is only a three-point spread.

So is this a stupid pick? Yes, it probably is a stupid pick. But like Solock said, I'm going up and down the schedule this week. And oh my goodness, it is hard. I just need a half point here and a half point there. So I'm concerned with Jailen Erich, just throwing for like $3.50 against this Bill's defense, which is not very good. and is banged up in the secondary, that absolutely could happen.

And again, I will feel very dumb. If that happens, I do think the bills are going to be able to move the football and score some points on this Eagles defense. Eagles coming off an emotional win in Kansas City. Come back, short week. They got the Niners next week in a huge game. I know it's not like a trap game. It's a good opponent, all those things.

And Jalen Hertz is always very steady. But you know what? I had to pick a game. And I'm going with the Bills plus three at Philadelphia. Philadelphia. Yeah, I'm at that point with the Eagles where I'm like, yeah, absolutely. They're not that juggernaut of a team. And so three against a great bill's team, like, sure, no, right? But then there's just been so many times with the Eagles that just undeservedly got in a late game and a win and they sneak around with it. And they just, it's such a fun team to root for because like, we're watching

that Chiefs game and I'm talking with NFL journalist buddies and they're like, oh, man, Chiefs line the Eagles hang around. Like the Chiefs got to put them away. Like the Chiefs are controlling this game. I was like, dude, the Eagles will win. I have watched this team enough to know that they are going to sneak this game as they seem to sneak all games unless they play the Jets. The Zach Wilson. It is so funny to me that this team lost to the Zach Wilson Jets. So I understand the logic of Bills minus 3. I probably will fully stay away from, or excuse me, Bills plus 3. I probably will fully stay away from this game against the spread. I like some Dalton Kincaid looks, like some Dandre Swift looks. But altogether, this is a weird one on the spread. What a win for the Bills this would be, though.

Talk about writing that chip, establishing yourself in the AFC playoff race. you beat the Eagles, you feel like, all right, not only can we make the playoffs, we're back to we can beat anybody mode. That's a huge. Like, this is a big, if you want to fix culture quick, you want to fix the 10 around the team quick,

beat the defending NFC champions with only one loss in their home stadium? That's a big game. I'm going to keep refreshing fans. We'll see if I can get that three and a half back. That would make me feel like this. This feels like a three-point Eagles win. But maybe it won't be. Who knows?

All right, what do you have for your third lock of the week? Yeah, so I had the same thing you did this morning. Chiefs minus 8 and a half against the Raiders. Max Crosby officially doubtful. Chiefs minus 10 against the Raiders. I'd already planned to go here. I'm just going to go here anyway. If they win by 9, just know that personally I won the bet.

Despite the fact that I did not win in for the competition. Chiefs minus 10 against the Raiders, the Chiefs in wins this season, they have seven wins. They have six and one against the spread. They don't feel like a team that has been dominating in their wins, they have actually done such a nice job controlling the ball in the second half, stringing together long drives. They aren't really given up backdoor covers. Now, this 10-point favorite is the biggest favorite that they've been this season.

Well, it's not the biggest. They were 10 points against the Broncos, and they were 13 against the Bears in week two. The books have not given them this big of a cushion. They are appropriately, appropriately, though, given to them against the Raiders, who don't have Max Crosby. And accordingly, defensively, just have little to no teeth. I took a long look at Isaiah Pacheco for prop of the week. like Pacheco rushing overs against this Raiders defense that's very getable in that regard.

Chiefs are going to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball in this game. Sats up nicely for a dominant game, a turnover heavy game, a control drive sort of a game. And I do think that when you have performances like the Chiefs did against the Eagles on Monday night, that wide receiver room under fire so much visibility. A ton of criticism, that huge drop performance. You do come out the next week and go, okay, we're facing the Raiders. Let's pitch the ball around the yard a little bit. Let's pass the football. Let's score some points.

Let's assert ourselves. I don't see this as a foot off the gas chiefs game where it's like, all right, like, you know, whatever, beat the Raiders. Like we're dominant the way we were before. I think they are feeling the heat on their neck a little bit. And accordingly, if they can, you know, put up a three touchdown first half of the home's performance, they will because they kind of need that feeling. You brought up that close AFC playoff picture.

I think you're going to see the chiefs again be interested in looking very competitive and playing a full game and playing a complete game. Raiders, I certainly like what I have seen from Aiden O'Connell, from the process perspective, I think that he's done a good job not letting the water get over his neck. He's kept his head above water. Armed talent-wise, there's just a lot of deficiency there, and this is the Chief's defense that man, they'll mess you up.

I mean, the way that this team hits, the raiders have been very yak-oriented under Ayn O'Connell, the way this team hits and tackles, and then the way they change pictures on you. It's just not the sort of defense, a rookie quarterback wants to be facing. I think a Chief's big win against the Raiders could be just what the doctor ordered.

I like the minus 10. Yeah, that defense against O'Connell is really tough. I mean, they were very impressive live. They were very impressive on film last week against the Eagles' best defense by far they've ever had with Patrick Mahomes. So I like that side. Also, it's not one of my picks,

but I did pick the Chiefs in my column. All right, my last one, you tell me if this qualifies for stupidest bet. She'll make all season. And this is another one. I had, I liked it, really liked it when I had that extra half point. That extra half point has disappeared. I'm taking the Los Angeles Chargers plus three against the Baltimore Ravens at home.

Listen, this one's going to go one of two ways. Either the Chargers are going to lose by 40 and Brandon Steele, it's not going to have a job on Monday, or I think the Chargers are going to win this game and show a little life. So what's the reasoning behind the shield? What are you thinking? First of all, I do like this. to sort of like a side when it feels like no one should like that side. Now, that's a good spot to be in.

And I don't, no person, no reasonable person should be taking the charges in this spot. Justin Herbert's playing really well right now. I know if you're a listener, you're probably like, I don't want to hear it. Shut up about Justin Herbert. I get it. That's fine. Last few weeks, especially since I made the comment that he's playing his most boring brand of football in his career.

I think literally since that game, he's been on fire. He's shown he can do more with less. Yes, this is a tough defense, no doubt about it. But the way he's playing right now, I think he'll have some opportunities. Other thing, Ravens, Mark Andrews out, Odell Beckham Jr., questionable, Zay Flowers, questionable for this game. So they're banged up offensively. Now, listen, it's Brandon Staley's defense.

It could be Lamar Jackson and three guys off the street, and they might still be able to put up 30 the way that Chargers defense is playing this season. But I do think it's going to be maybe a little harder for them than it's looked. so far this season. So this is just a desperation spot. You know, I was thinking about Herbert last week for those who didn't watch the game.

There was, he was calling for the snap. He didn't get the snap. They got hit with a delay of game. Through the football at the ground and it's yelling at his center. Like, it's just like there.

And then what was the next play? Desperation. The next play was like 25 yards scramble. He was like, enough. I am doing this myself. Yeah. So this is like backs against the wall.

Desper. Now that, again, that can go one. of two ways. It's a great argument to be made that they just don't have it and they could try as hard as they want and they're still going to lose to the rapins by more than three. But I'm going to take a shot here. Again, I like this way more at three and a half than three, but what are you going to deal?

They lost the Lions game by three. They lost the Packers game by three. Three and a half sure would feel nice. Just because this team is so bad in the fourth quarter, they're so bad situationally. So that three point deficit feels like it could be important. I do think the Ravens past catcher injuries are enormous. This was a spot that I liked a lot for the Ravens. But if it's Rashad Bateman, Devin DuVernay, Nelson, Aguilar, and Isaiah likely in the past catching game,

I think that really, really matters in terms of the comfort that you have with Lamar and the big play potential. It's worrisome stuff. I really really like this game for Keaton Mitchell. If not for the fact that my last two props have been running back, receiving overs, and both of them have missed, which, by the way, I am 68. percent this year personally taking running backs in the receiving game and my last two have missed on this podcast whatever. I would have been on Keaton Mitchell over seven and a half receiving yards. I'm on that personally. I'm not giving it out for the show that curses the bet. But I think this is a

great Keaton Mitchell game. I think this is a great backs out of the backfield and and Gus Edwards, a little Devin duvine reverse and they're going to kind of cheese offense. But I don't think it's a high scoring game for the Ravens. I do think that this can potentially stay close because of those injuries. The loss of Joey Bosa does not move the chargers in the power ratings for me at all. Bosa in a very much a non-factor for this team on defense. So I do think that, yeah, like you're going to see the Chargers play the same game that they've been playing, where they look great on offense and they're terrible situationally

and the game is close the entire time, and then they lose in the fourth quarter. You're going to lose by two, we're going to lose by three. That's what's going to decide your bet here. You know what? I just realized what I did subconsciously. I wanted to delay the pain as much as possible.

I took both, I took a Sunday, I took a 425, a Sunday night and a Monday night. One o'clock game Sunday. I'm feeling good. I haven't lost any of these yet. I'm in a great spot. I think that's probably going against Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hertz when they're only three-point favorites. What could go wrong?

Real smart. That's going to go great for you. All right. So, if I'm on Falcons plus one and a half, that's a one o'clock game. I'm on Rams for the long shot. That's a four-clock game. Chiefs minus 10.

That's a four-clock game. And Steelers is a one-clock game. So I have mine all defraight. Steers minus one and a half. And then, yeah, my prop of the week, also a four-clock. game was Sequin Barclay under seven and a half rushing yards. So that's my slate for the day. 70 and a half, right? Yeah, is what I said. 70 and a half rushing. Okay, I don't know. I thought it said seven and a half. Just making sure for the record for Luke, I don't want him to be confused.

Barkley under seven and a half would be a long shot of a long shots. I think under 70 and a half is what are the odds on that bad boy? All right. I've got Jalen Warren over 49 and a half rushing yards. Long shot is C.J. Stroud throwing for 300 plus. And my lock. are Vikings minus three, bills plus three, and chargers plus three. All right, before we go, Benny Souls, you want to share the good news with the listener? You shared it on social media, but not all our listeners are on social media, as I like to remind you and remind everyone else. Some people just like to listen. So you don't mind them to see it.

I'm going to be a dad. That's pretty cool. I'm excited about that. I'm pretty stoked. Yeah. No, I'm really excited. I've got a baby due May 20th after the draft. mom's doing great, baby's doing great

as far as you can tell these things. I'm taking extensive notes on all dad behaviors that I see which is fun getting a lot of a lot of a help from the sports media dad and the ringer dads of which there are many and so very thankful for that. Very excited.

Yeah, it's gonna be a fun, fun NFL season. I'm gonna enjoy every last precious minute of it because the moment the draft ends, I'm in full on dad bowed. From what I can tell, that's not allowed to sleep. And so I'm enjoying it while I got it. There you go. Congratulations.

The Benny Souls and family. He will be a wonderful dad. We're all very excited for him. That baby will be throwing out props this time next year. We say, bring the baby on for the props. We can't get any of these right. That's very exciting news for the extra point taken. Got to do the classic sports media move where you have your baby or your dog

crawl and point to like a certain like which one who's going to win. Like, you know, cheese raiders and like put a treat on each one. I got to do that with the baby and that'll help. At least get us the 50%. with the randomness. All right, Cliff is pointing out that we have to finish with Ben having a very dad move

before the pod where he tried to send us a voice to text to tell us when he would be ready to go and instead he sent us a voice memo. So yeah, Cliff, thank you for pointing that out. Slack updated its interface on iPhone and they moved the voice memo thing

and that's throwing me for a little. He's having technical difficulties. I mean, this guy is dad beyond his years already. I've been training for this for a long time. I'm ready. I'm able. I'm willing. Here we go. All right. Congratulations. Again to the Solax. Thanks to Cliff Augustine for producing. Thanks to Eduardo Ocampo for his video production.

Additional production supervision by Connor and Evans and Arjuna Rahm Gopal. Next up, Nora and Stephen on dual threat Sunday night, recapping all the week 12 games. Be sure to check that out. We'll be back Monday night after Vikings Bears. Thanks to everyone for listening. Have a great weekend and we will talk to you next week. Must be 21 plus and present in select states. Fandwell is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC. Gambling problem? Call 100 gambler or visit fandle.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, and Virginia.

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