The Ringer NFL Show - Week 13 Predictions! Cowboys the Team to Beat? Legit Jets Buzz? All-In on Trevor Lawrence? | The Scramble

Episode Date: December 1, 2022

Sheil is joined by The Ringer’s Danny Kelly to predict the biggest story lines that will come out of this weekend’s games, including why the Cowboys will emerge as the class of the NFC (18:00). Plus, they share why Sunday will be a prove-it game for Mike White (2:00), explain what a win would do for the Commanders (12:00), and talk Dolphins-49ers (31:00). Finally, they close the show by answering your mailbag questions (39:00). Do you have a question for Sheil? Email [e-mail] for a chance to have your question answered on the show. Host: Sheil Kapadia Guest: Danny Kelly Associate Producer: Mike Wargon Additional Production Supervision: Conor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopal Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Mac Jones is ripped. Matt Patricia's calling plays. The Celtics are title favorites. And The Ringer has a new Boston show. I'm Brian Barrett, host of Off the Pike, the show covering all things Boston sports. I'll have shows multiple times a week covering your favorite teams and with your favorite ringer and local guests.

Plus, maybe Bill will stop by to rant about the socks. Follow off the pike with me, Brian Barrett, now on Spotify. Come to the Scramble on the Ringer NFL feed. I'm Shield Capadia. Coming to you every Thursday with a guest. Then we get a repeat guest, one of my favorites, my friend, the ringer's own, Danny Kelly, D.K., how we doing? I'm doing excellent. How are you?

Good. I'm in mode of like, all right, week 13, I start looking at schedules. I'm like, when you can name a team's, like, remaining opponents, that's a good time in the NFL season. It means like, all right, you're getting to playoff time. You, though, I mean, you go straight into draft mode. So you're just like around the clock, 12 months a year football guy. Yeah, I know. It's just, I'm starting to try and figure out like the top 50, top 75.

so I can start kind of trying to connect some of these players to the teams going forward. We're starting to have a little bit better idea of what the draft order is going to look like, who's going to be picking in the top 10. So exciting times, exciting times. It is going to be a fun draft with all those trades from the previous years and the team's actually picking in the top 10 that they're not their actual picks. It's going to be fun, no doubt about it. We will look at all your draft content the rest of us. We don't have to do all the homework.

We can just look at your draft content. Today, we're looking at week 13. I was thinking about what to do. I was like, some rest of season. And I looked at the slate, and I'm like, this slate's awesome. There are great games on the week 13 slate. So we're going to focus on the games this weekend. And here's what we're going to do.

We're going to make some predictions. We're going to make some predictions about what are people going to be talking about Monday morning. You know, it's a race to get your takeoff Monday morning. What are you going to say? How are you going to view what happened during Sunday's action? And so we're going to look ahead. Listen, we're too old. So if you don't want spoilers, turn the podcast off because we're probably going to nail a bunch of

these we can see into the future. But that's it. We're each going to pick three. We're going to talk about them as a way to preview the weekend. And then we'll hit some mailbag questions, as always, at the end. So, Danny, you're the guest. Start us off. What's one thing we're going to be talking about Monday morning?

I think one topic of discussion on Monday is going to be Mike White might really be the answer in New York. if, and I don't know, I'm not necessarily predicting that the Jets are going to win. I'm just thinking if they do win, if they beat this 9-2 Vikings team on the road, Mike White's legend is going to like be established. This guy is going to be like a New York legend already, I feel like. I think like the big question here is not,

it's not even if Zach Wilson's the answer. It's like if Zach, sorry, Mike White is the answer. That's like really my question here is like, maybe they just had this guy on the roster. as like the backup and he's actually going to be the starter for the future. The way that he plays, the way he distributes the football. I don't know. I can just see the Jets kind of talking themselves into this.

What do you think of this? Yeah, I think it could be one of those seasons where, you know, I don't think the Jets are going to win the Super Bowl this year. But sometimes you just want a fun season where like 10 years from now, Jets fans will be like, oh, my, you know, remember when Mike White went on that run in like December? And maybe we got to the divisional round and it was a really fun season because you had all the Zach Wilson stuff earlier. that's kind of how I view it.

And really, the thing with this Jets team has been like, and I think we've discussed this last time you were on, it's like the pieces are in place for the quarterback to succeed on this team. You kind of need this quarterback to not hold the team back. Just be competent. Like you don't need Patrick Mahomes. And just looking at the numbers, I know it was the Bears last week,

and the Bears might be the worst defense in the NFL right now after the trades they made. But if you just look at it, it was the Jets best offensive performance in terms of, like EPA per drive of the last two years. And it was their best quarterback performance, EPA per pass play of the last two years. So it's like, I hear what you're saying. It's like just distribute the ball, get rid of it, avoid the negative plays.

You've got Garrett Wilson. You've got Elijah Moore. I think Michael Flore is really good and really is like a quarterback friendly offensive coordinator. And I kind of agree with you. I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if they did win this game. That Vikings defense, like their philosophy is just like, give up a bunch of completions and maybe we'll get a turnover or a sap or like something will fall in our favor. But their past defense is 27th in DVOA. Opponents are completing almost 70% of

their passes against them. So I kind of feel like he's in position to, you know, sometimes the guy gets in. He has a great first week and comes back down to earth. And that'll probably happen at some point. Sure. But it might not happen this week. Yeah. And so like if you look at the way he plays, you're exactly right. He is a low A dot. Like he doesn't necessarily push the ball down the field a ton, Mike White. He's just a facilitator. You nailed it. He has like few negative plays, which is kind of the exact opposite of Zach Wilson. He doesn't try to do too much. He gets the ball out. Something like 36% of his attempts so far I've gone to running backs. In the four, in the five games, he started for the Jets going back to last year. 36 go to running backs, 36%.

So he's he's definitely like willing and able to check it down. Obviously like Robert Salas talked a lot about sort of his demeanor. He's very calm and cool collected. Um, the team seems to really have a lot of confidence in him, which obviously matters a lot. I don't know. To me, it's like maybe someday he's in this like Jimmy G mode where like, or like that zone where I think probably some fans are like,

we got to get a replacement. The team is like, hey, we can win with this guy. We have a good defense. We got a good running game. That's maybe like his ceiling. But I just kind of interested to see how this goes.

He's, you know, in five games, he has eight touchdowns, eight picks, 88 rating. Lots of eights there. You know, it's like obviously not great. numbers.

Yeah. When he had that game last week, very good game against the Bears, then you go back last year, he had a 4005-yard passing performance against the Bengals. You know, he's got two really, really good games. And, you know, mixed in with some, like, there's one really bad game. He had four picks against the bills. And then just, like, some mediocre games in there. So, I don't know, I'm just excited to see what he does.

Like, I think the big thing is he just gets the ball to his playmakers. He obviously knows where his bread is buttered and throws the ball to Garrett Wilson a lot. Maybe they'll get Elijah Moore involved this week. But yeah, I mean, I'm just kind of like intrigued with this Mike White's story. Yeah, I'm intrigued by that game, no doubt about it. And Mike, I mean, the thing that's like uncomfortable to say, like, you could just, the whole team could see that the quarterback was holding them back and they were frustrated. And like, you just couldn't keep going.

I mean, you could have kept going down that path. Like, there's a scenario where Zach Wilson comes out and it's like, I'm not playing well. I got to be bad and says all the right things. And everyone's like, okay, you know, let's, let's rally behind this guy. But he just didn't even have it. I mean, maybe one day he will. Maybe this will be good for him long term in his career. But like, think about it if you're a Jets fan.

Like, you're not that, like, you have a season where you can have a play, watch a playoff game. Exactly. Like other fan bases take that for granted because that like happens often. That doesn't happen for Jets fans. And so if you can have a season where you can actually be there on wildcard weekend and like get together with your friends or go to the game or family or whatever and sit on the couch, if you're like, this is really exciting.

We're in the playoffs. Like, that's a meaningful part of the fan experience. And if they win this week, you know, they'll be closer to doing that. So I'm with you. That's a good one to start us off. I guess this is like partially a Jets podcast because my first one is also about this Jets Vikings game. Jets are three and a half point underdogs going to Minnesota.

I think that on Monday morning, somebody's, maybe it'll be me who will have the take. I mean, we're doing the podcast ahead of time. The take will be sauce Gardner belongs in the defensive player of the year conversation. I didn't say defensive rookie of the year conversation. I said defensive player of the year conversation. He's already barring something totally unforeseen. He's going to be the defensive rookie of the year.

But, I mean, he's been awesome. He has been, he has passed every day. I mean, he's physical. The personality is awesome. He can play zone. He can play man. He can tackle. He can cover.

he can do it all. And he's got this matchup with Justin Jefferson. And I'm not telling you he's going to shut Justin Jefferson down. I don't think anybody does that. I would be nuts to even think that. But there are going to be reps probably where he's one-on-one with Justin Jefferson. And can you just see like one of those next-gen stats graphics like, you know, Justin Jefferson when shadowed by Saus Gardner, three catches for 38 yards or something? Like, oh my gosh. And, you know, and he's on the team where, you know, Jets fans, we just talked about, are starving for, like, good things to happen, and he's kind of their guy this year. I was looking up some of the numbers on pro football focus, and I think some coverage stats

are a little wonky, so I just narrowed it down to man. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, there's a lot of variables. So I just narrowed it down to man coverage because that's, you know, easier to look at. Sauce Gardner has played 100 snaps of man coverage this year. On those snaps, this is wild. I double checked it, I swear. No, opposing quarterbacks have gone four for 15 for seven yards when target.

Seven. Four for 15 for seven yards. That's the whole year? That's the whole year. Wow. Yeah, that's incredible. Yeah, there's some single high looks where you're playing zone and it's kind of man. He's giving up plays, no doubt about it.

But when it's straight man coverage, according to their charting, those have been his numbers. He hasn't allowed a completion of more than five yards in those man coverage snaps. and he's had six-pass breakup. So, like, basically everything in terms of man coverage, he's near the top of the NFL. I mean, you were scouting him at this time last year. Like, has he exceeded your expectations? Has he been what you thought he would be coming into the league?

I mean, he's exceeded him. I mean, he was my top-ranked corner. I think he was my third-ranked player overall or fourth, something like that. I definitely expected him to be really good. But, like, any time a corner comes into NFL, it puts up those kind of, like, shut down numbers immediately. I think you have to say that's pretty shocking, like for any player, literally.

So yeah, and this is funny because it just reminds me of, you know, scouting him coming into the NFL. Like, it was kind of difficult to project because he just never, like teams didn't target him. Like he just was over on that side and the quarterbacks were like, we're not even going to bother throwing to his direction because we know how good he is. And we just like don't even want to have to deal with that. We're just going to attack somewhere else.

And that was like kind of what made the event. evaluation a little bit tricky is just like they he didn't have a ton of targets like um you know especially in like man coverage and so yeah that that is shocking that's a really good stat i mean to me it's it's kind of funny to think about uh you know saskartner is sort of the justin jefferson of cornerbacks like long kind of like spindly guy super swaggy um you know extremely extremely good like crazy body control uh good length yeah it's kind of like he's like the the counterpart on defense for just jefferson maybe i love that that's part Yeah, you're right.

Their personalities. You can kind of see it between the two of them. They both just came into the league and, like, they were great in college. They came into the league and just sort of took the league by storm right away. Like there was no doubt whether the guy was going to be a great player or not, which, like you said, I mean, that's rare for cornerback, especially. And for wide receiver, I think sometimes even we overrate how easy it is to come in. I mean, more guys have done it recently, but what Jefferson did right away was wild.

So, yeah, we'll see. I mean, listen, maybe Jefferson could. cook him. I mean, Jefferson is awesome. So this could look like a very stupid prediction, because I'm not counting Jefferson out against anybody, but that's like a must-see matchup this weekend. And if he plays well there, I think there'll be some boss. Obviously, Michael Parsons is the favorite, but I really look at Sauce Gardner and even Quinn and Williams, like both those guys, you could have them in the conversation for defensive player of the year. I mean, those two have been playing awesome this year for the Jets. All right, what do you have for your

second one? So number two here, and again, this kind of depends on who wins, but I'm picking the commanders to win over the Giants this week. And I think if they do, they're going to be the new, like, fashionable sleeper in the NFC, the sleeper team of the NFC. So number one, the defense is coming together for the commanders. Last year, I think it was like they have so much talent. And I remember going into last year, I expected this defense to be like a shutdown defense. And it just didn't come together for whatever reason. There's just, again, there's a lot of variables on defense.

That's why, you know, there's a lot of. lot from year to year defense is hard to predict it's just like you know it's like from a devio a point of view offense is much more predictable defense on the other hand is there's just a ton of variables this year it seems to be coming together they're 10th and in weighted devoid devoid this year on defense things are starting to sink jonathan allen's been a stud want to sweat quietly having a great season they might get chase young back here pretty soon and then offensively kind of plucky i mean i don't know if i would necessarily say this is like a great offense but it's good enough It's kind of actually similar to the Jets.

Like it's good enough to support what is the foundation of the team, like a good, strong defense. Like their offense can do enough things. Taylor Heineke is, he's got enough like all the cliche, like moxie. He's willing to push the ball down the field. He probably thinks he's better than he actually is,

which he always love confidence in a quarterback. I was thinking of like, I was like a point guard. But then if like that point guard was Jason Williams, like, you know, remember back in the day, like, yeah, oh yeah, like chocolate. Yeah, exactly. He's kind of like that category of point guard.

He's got a little bit of swag. He's super confident. He doesn't have the physical talent necessarily to back up that confidence. But I think he can do enough in the offense to keep it going. They have good players. Their run game is getting better. Brian Robinson seems like he's really hitting his stride. Antonio Gibson, honestly, he's been better than I expected him to be this year.

I think his role as like sort of a hybrid pass catcher running back is they've kind of found like a good role for him, I think. And so, yeah, this commander's team, I don't know. They kind of like have me entreat going forward. What do you think? They sort of seemed like that team a couple of years ago that was seven and nine and won the division where you, but then they gave the bucks like a great game. Remember, I think it was a Saturday night game or something where it was like, wow,

they're actually playing really well. So, yeah, I don't think they're a great team. I agree with you on defense. Yeah, the defensive stuff has been like the last two years ago, they had a great defense. Last year they fell to a terrible defense. And a lot of it was like third and fourth down variance, I think. And then this year you're like, all right, they'll probably settle in somewhere in between. I guess that's kind of what's happened.

But you're right, they have played well. The front has played well. Their corners and their safeties are kind of like they're feisty. It's not like, you know, names that you would be like, all right, like a sauce garden or anything. But they're competitive. They play really hard. I know just watching the film of the two times they've played the Eagles. I was kind of like, all right, they compete and play really hard.

St. Juice, Ted, like this, I remember this great play. where he got beat, I think it was by Kwez Watkins, but he just like hustled his butt down the field and had a forced fumble like after a 50-yard completion. Watching the film, I'm like, wow, he really did not give up on that play. So they have that kind of personality. I feel like one of these weeks they're going to come back down Earth. You know, you're right about Heineke.

He's got in Ringer language. He's got the irrational confidence. There's no doubt about it. I agree with what you said. They kind of, you look at the supporting pieces, you're like, yeah, if they had like a Mike White type, you know, that's what he's not, he sort of has more of a Zach Wilson playing personality, but it's worked out for him more, you know, like he is that anything can happen every time he touches the ball type player

where he's just, he's not afraid, it could be a terrible play, it could be a great play where you're like, wow, that's unbelievable. So he's sort of a high variance player where I feel like one of these weeks he'll probably throw, you know, three interceptions or have three turnovers and they'll lose. And this matchup is interesting because I think this is the first week, the commanders have had better playoff odds than the Giants. They kind of jumped on this week after the Giants lost on Thanksgiving and Washington beat the Falcons because Arthur Smith put the ball in Marcus Mario, I couldn't believe it, that play. But anyway, that's a side. But Brian Robinson did look good last week. You're right. I thought that was like, you know,

close to the best. He's looked. I mean, he was breaking tackles. He was running hard. he was physical and they've got the wide receivers obviously and their offensive line has held up well. So we'll see. I'm not fully on board. I'm not in like Kevin Durant mode on board with the commanders. He tweets about him every week, right? The Manders, Manders won again or whatever. He says, so they're two and a half point favorites.

It's a weird scheduling quirk where they play the Giants and then I think they have a buy and then they play the Giants again. So like their next two games are against. Yeah, that's random. Yeah, or against the Giants. So we'll see. I'll be curious. I pick the Giants in this game, but I just feel like it's a toss-up game. I feel like there's not a lot separating these two.

But you're right. I mean, if they win again, I think that'll be something like, what, seven of eight or something. They've had a couple three-game winning streak. So they've definitely positioned themselves to be in the playoff mix where I did not think that was going to happen after the first four, five, six weeks of this season. All right. I'm going to stick in the NFC East. I think on Monday morning, there will be a take that the Dallas Cowboys are the team to beat in the NFC. Now, usually...

Over the Eagles. Okay. Over the Eagles. So I pick the Eagles to lose. If you're an Eagles fan listening to this, you should be happy because I've picked pretty much every Eagles game wrong this year against the spread. So don't yell at me. Thank me for doing that. But I kind of like the Titans in that matchup.

You know, the Titans coming off a loss. Their defense is really good. They're so physical on offense. they can run the ball, they can muddy up the game, kind of. And so I pick the Titans to win that game. And if the Titans win that game, it's really interesting, the NFC East Race, because Titans win that game, and the Cowboys are 10.5 point favorites against the cold. So it would be like a stunner if they lost that game.

So they would cut the lead to one game where the Eagles would be 10 and 2, and the Cowboys would be 9 and 3. And they've got this matchup on Christmas Eve in Dallas, where basically that could be for the Eagles. the division. I mean, Dallas would win a lot of the tiebreakers, most of the tiebreakers, if they win that game on Christmas Eve. And so it's this weird scenario where you're either going to be the first seed or the fifth seed, because you're in the same division, you know, it's not like you're falling from one to two or one to three. It's like whoever loses the

division is the fifth seed. And now instead of having a buy and two home games to get to the Super Bowl, you're talking about three road games to get to the Super Bowl. So usually the hype kind of outweighs the reality with the Cowboys, I don't think it's the case this year. I mean, they look, they look very complete to me. They can run it with, you know, Pollard and Zeke. They can throw it with DAC. They can rush the passer, obviously, with Michael Parsons. There's probably going to be some Mike McCarthy nonsense at some point in here. So you always have to guard against that. But yeah, I feel like there's going to, this is going to be a week where there's a lot of like, all right, Cowboys are legit Super Bowl contenders type buzz happening.

I can see that. I can see that. Yeah, I mean, especially, like you said, if the Eagles can't take care of business. The Eagles, it's been interesting because since they lost that game, and I know that like there was sort of this feeling, or at least AJ Brown said it, like getting the undefeated monkey off their back.

Like, no, they don't have to talk about that anymore. I feel like they haven't looked like quite the same juggernaut, obviously, as they did early on in the season. Yeah. Maybe that's just, you know, coming out against the Packers last week, a little bit flat, they gave up a bunch of points. they did end up winning the game, which is, of course, the most important part.

But to me, it's just like, I remember texting with my buddies. Like, the Eagles just don't look quite as, like, solid and strong as they did early on in the season. You know, I think their passing game has been a little hit or miss at times. And so, like, that, to me, makes this match up against the Titans very interesting

because the Titans are just, like, so shut down good against the run. And so they're going to try and, I guess, like, force Jaylon Hertz to do, do his thing through the air. So that's good, that's an interesting matchup. And then, yeah, like you said, with the lions, or sorry, with the, with the cowboys, I should say, um, you know, they just kind of look like the most complete team right now. Dack is playing really, really well. You know, like you said, the run game has the thunder and lightning. It's like every coach's dream to have like that Zeke, Zeke Pollard thunder and lightning thing going on. Um, so they, you know, they can do a lot of different things on the ground and then, you know, C. C.D. Lamb, uh, you know, it seems like Michael Gallup is starting to hit his stride a little bit more. So yeah, they're, they're, they're definitely a complete team. I like this one. Where do you like as the OBJ team? I guess the three teams he's visiting, I think are the Bills,

Giants, and Cowboys. I kind of don't like really love any of that. I mean, you mentioned it. I guess the Cowboys, if you can add another wide receiver and he looks good, but I don't know, it's the old, there's one ball to kind of go around type thing.

The bills, I'm like, do the bills really need him? I don't know, you know, sort of like, if Josh Allen's healthy, their offense looks fine.

And the Giants could definitely use him, but is it like, yeah, I want to go, you know, play for this Giants team for a month when they might or might not make the playoffs. Do you have, like, a strong feeling about where you would like to see him land? I mean, I think obviously the Cowboys thing, probably, like, from a storyline perspective, makes the most sense, like, for whatever. But, like, to me, if I'm the Cowboys, I don't know if I really want to deal with, like, the,

like you said, there's only one ball to go around. I don't know if I really want to deal with, like, because, like, you know, he's always been demanding. of the football in like a good way sometimes, but also that can like kind of mess with the chemistry. When it comes, I think he probably makes more sense for the bills. If I'm being honest,

like I'm still trying to figure out how good Gabe Davis, Gabriel Davis is. I think he plays a good role. Like he's a take the top off the defense, deep guy. But like I'm still trying to figure out like if he can be a consistent, like down to down, you know,

that kind of receiver that's really going to be, you know, there for the offense on third downs kind of deal. And that, to me, is kind of like where they need him the most. I don't really have, I think Isaiah McKenzie is an explosive player and he's like a good player, but, you know, he's a role player. And so to me, having a guy opposite digs, like, like Beckham where you can win on third downs, you can use him in the red zone as like a jump ball specialist or whatever. Like, obviously, he was really good for the Rams last year in the red zone. To me, he just makes more sense for the bills. Yeah.

You know, he makes sense for both teams, really. I don't think he's probably going to sign with the Giants at this point. That would be my guess. So to me, it's the Cowboys and the Bills. But, of course, I've been wrong before, so who knows? You could really, now that as you were saying it, I'm like, all right, I could kind of talk myself into any of them now that I think about it. I mean, you know, if the Cowboys are in 11 personnel with three wide receivers,

I mean, the goal is always to just make yourself as hard as possible to defend. And, you know, he fit in with the Rams when he got there last year. And they had Cooper Cup. And so you have a, like, potent passing attack. And the bill, same time. I mean, the bills passed the ball so much. I would imagine playing with Josh Allen would be pretty fun for any wide receiver. And yeah, the Giants, I mean, it would just be like, all right, if you want to pile up some targets here and maybe get into the playoffs, I could see that.

But that doesn't feel like it would be the best situation for him. So we'll see where he ends up. All right, what is your third thing that we're going to be talking about Monday morning? So this is, I don't know if this is more just like a narrative thing. This is less to do with the playoffs and everything. But like, here's my take that people are going to be talking about on Monday. Lawrence is here to save quarterbacking. I think quarterback play has been clearly down this year.

Like there's just been, you know, across the board, quarterbacks have struggled to push the ball down the field, like efficiencies down. Passing is down in general. Running is starting to kind of like take hold again against these two high defenses, the way that defenses are playing. I think obviously the top tier of quarterbacks is still playing well.

But when you have guys like Russell Wilson really struggling, Matt Stafford has struggled and now he's probably done for the season. Aaron Rogers, not in MVP form anymore. You've got like the old guard. Tom Brady even has, I think Brady's still playing well, but their offense just hasn't really clicked as much as you think it would. When you have the old guard kind of like struggling and the next generation also kind of struggling, like last year's draft class, or sorry, two years ago, Trevor Lawrence,

sorry, now I'm losing track of the timeline. Was Trevor Lawrence was a rookie last year. Last year, yeah. I know. It's been a long season. Sorry, yes. Trevor Lawrence, so like the 2020 class, like Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, I think, is starting to come on really strong, but now he's hurt. Obviously, Zach Wilson has been benched.

Trey Lance is injured. The next generation, like the quarterback, and then the year before that, I think, you're still seeing like ups and downs. I think that just like the quarterback, the future of the quarterback position, I think, is still kind of in flux. And so that's why we've seen a lot of, like, struggles from the quarterbacks this year. And so, again, this is sort of a narrative thing, but like, if Trevor Lawrence comes out, balls out again, plays, beats the Lions, the Lions defense is definitely right for the picking. You know, maybe then he's going to, Trevor Lawrence is going to kind of establish himself as, like, what he, we thought he was when he was drafted, like, this like generational prospect.

I'm not saying necessarily one game, one win against Lions is going to make that, but like, combining that with the outstanding comeback performance last week, coming out and like playing really sharp beating the lions. To me, that's going to really help his standing and sort of just like the opinion of him going forward. So I'm excited to see kind of like what the narratives around Trevor Lawrence are if he can win and beat the lions and play sharp. Yeah, it felt like something we sort of wanted or needed just as a, whether you're

fan media just for the league, it's, you know, like Trevor Lawrence sucking would have sucked. You know, it's like, oh my gosh. The NFL needs him to be good, like for real. Yeah. Yeah. You want him to be good there. He had the horrible experience with Urban Meyer last year. You're kind of like, this is unfair to be put in that situation.

The Jaguars have just had so many losing seasons over the last decade. So that was like a feel-good moment for sure last week when the fourth quarter. I felt like I had to take a few weeks ago where I was just like, I want to see, like, he leaves me wanting more. Like it's not that he's playing poorly. He's playing fine. He's competent. But it sort of felt robotic.

It felt like he was, you know, the coaches were hammering home like, hey, you don't always have to like make a play or, you know, take the check. Like, you know what I mean? Like everything was what was on the chalkboard? And I'm like, this guy has like pretty special talent. Like sometimes it's okay to just be like, you know, go Josh Allen mode and just be like, don't worry, I've got this. That's what I wanted to see more of.

And I thought last week in the fourth quarter, it was a situation where they're losing to the Ravens and it's just like you have nothing to lose. Like, you got to make plays or you're going to lose the game. And he was, and they're in her. up, you know, and so I don't know if it's less thinking or if I'm just making up a narrative, but it felt like he was kind of just willing to cut it loose. And you look at some of those throws and you're like, okay, that's, yes, that is the guy we thought we were getting when he entered the league and he was so good in that fourth quarter. And there were like a

couple of mistakes in there. Like, he fumbled the one time they were covered. He had a near interception. And like, I always think about that, like, shoot, if the Ravens would have just recovered that fumble, we're having a totally different conversation. But like, that's okay. Like I would almost want their coaching staff to at this point in his development be like, it's okay to make some mistakes if you think you can make a play, make a play. Because I feel like he's been, I'm talking about both sides of my mouth because he had those horrible red zone interceptions, which obviously you don't want those. So it's always a fine line.

But at the same time, I want him to let his talent show and be willing to make some of those throws that other quarterbacks can't make, which he was willing to do last year. I was looking, he's now all the way up to eighth in EPA per pass. play among starting quarterback. So he's really made a nice leap. And it feels like they're a team that could, like, they're not going to make the playoffs, but it feels like they're one of those teams that could really play well down the stretch, where then we're talking about next season.

And it's like, hey, the Jags has something to build on here. So I like that one a lot. They get Calvin Ridley. They get Calvin Ridley. And then they probably draft a guy, like a receiver. Maybe that passing game starts to really take off. Yeah. Yeah.

Again, like to me, this is more, you said it. Like, he has. felt, I think, in the past that, like, I need to put this team on my back at times. And so he makes these, like, kind of wild decisions where to go with the football. And it's led to, like, especially last year, it led to, like, a lot of turnovers that you kind of wouldn't really expect from him. But he didn't have a ton of talent around him. Now I feel like he's getting to the point where you're starting to see him elevate the guys around him. Like, Zay Jones, he's made into, like, a high volume, like, playmaker over the last few weeks. And that's awesome to see. And so,

So yeah, to me, it's more just narrative and feeling good about where the NFL is going with the quarterback position. Because like I said, I didn't even get to all the players. Like, I didn't even mention Mack Jones. He's really struggled. Like, we don't know really what his future is. The 2020, I meant to say the 2021 class, the 22 class is still definitely up in the air. Obviously with, you know, Kenny Pickett is the only guy that's actually playing. And, you know, I think he's looked good at times.

He looked really bad at times. The book is definitely still, like the jury's still out on him. So I think we just, to me, and just my mind, we need some, we need like a quarterback to like really start showing out and being like the next, you know, like add to like the Justin Herbert's of the world. You know, too has obviously been really good this year too. So that that makes things better and like the quarterback position as a whole stronger. But I don't know, I would feel better about like the future of offense if Trevor Lawrence really finishes strong. And I'm hoping that's what we see. Yeah, I think he's got a chance this week.

I like the Jaguars in that game at Detroit. That's like a low key fun game. Like there's not really playoff implications, but it's going to be high scoring, I think. Yeah, I want to watch that game and see what happens in that game. It's not going to. The Lions play pretty entertaining games almost every week, win or lose. And the Jaguars, too, they've had seven one score games this year. They're two and five in those one score games.

All right, my last one, I think we're going to be saying, Mike McDaniel definitively is the coach of the year. I'll be wrong on this one, let's say. But the Dolphins go to San Francisco. Really fun, big time matchup to face the 49ers. Just fun on so many levels. I mean, the big thing is Tua and that offense going up against the 49ers defense. Like the Dolphins offense, I was looking at this. If you isolate just the snaps with Tua, like take away when they were playing Bridgewater and Skyler Thompson and just look at EPA per play,

they've had the best offense in the NFL better than the Kansas City Chiefs who are like running away with it. compared to every other team. And it passes the eye time. Every week you watch them and you're like, all right, they scored 30 again. Oh, there's Red Zone. Look, they're in the Red Zone. The Red Zone flashes to them.

Oh, there's the Dolphins in the Red Zone. Or there's Tyree Kill on a 40-yard bomb or Jalen Waddle or, you know, Tua just hitting somebody in the middle of the field off play act. Like it's just every week they've looked unstoppable. Now their schedule, they've played the Texans, the Browns, and the Bears, the last. three weeks, which, listen, you have to play who's on your schedule, but those are three of the worst defenses in the NFL. And so now you get a top five defense in the 49ers. I think

Eric Armstead might be returning for San Francisco. They're coming off that shutout against the Saints. They're really well-coached. And so I'm just so excited to see how this matchup plays out, but like, I don't know. I've gotten to the point where I'm like, I'm not going to bet against the Dolphins offense. And man, if they go to San Francisco, and like a pupil beats the mentor in Kyle Shanahan. I don't even know if that was the exact relationship. They obviously worked together. There's not like a huge age gap, I don't think, between them.

Maybe there is. But I think that would be fun. I think the halfway point of the season, I had Pete Carroll as my coach of the year, but I was like eyeing McDaniel like, all right, if things go south to the Seahawks, I'm going to go with McDaniel at the end of the year. And I think he's got a chance to generate a lot of that buzz. with a win here. Yeah, and I think, you know,

it's matchup-wise, like, the fact that the Niners have so many good players, like, in the middle of their defense, and, like, maybe they can contend with kind of, like, how the Dolphins love to attack the middle of the field. Like, Tua, it feels very comfortable just throwing over the middle of field. Like, he hits his back foot, snaps it off. Like, he just, like, launches, right into there.

He's not afraid to attack, you know, tight coverage in that area. So, yeah, this is such a fun matchup. And the one thing I do worry about, like, I haven't heard the latest, it is now Thursday morning. Tehran Armstead, I'm not sure if he's going to play or not. I think that could be a big factor in this game. If he doesn't play, that could worry me a little bit just with like the force or the strength of the 49ers defensive line.

Like that could really kind of muddle things up for them and make it a lot harder. But, you know, at the end of the day, like, honestly, Tua's gotten rid of the ball so quickly this year that like the offensive line, I'm not going to say it doesn't matter, but like he can mitigate some of the issues on the offensive line. just by getting the ball out really quickly. He's been very decisive. His processing speed, which I loved when he was in college, is showing up again. You know what I mean?

And so, like, all those things matter. I think this was, I feel good about some of my predictions from the off season because I remember coming into the air. I was like, man, I'm so excited to see what the dolphins can do. Like, on this podcast, I think we had an episode. I remember, yeah, your thing was like, I'm excited about the dolphins. I couldn't have been more wrong about anything. Well, the dolphins, the Seahawks, Russell,

there were a few things. I'll admit it. You guys listen, so I can't lie now. But, yeah, no, when I was ready, when I was pre-season for this show, I remember, Danny, when we did the preseason show, you were all, you were pumped about the dolphins. I was just like, like, theoretically, the dolphin's offense was super exciting. So I guess it's kind of cool to see it all come together. And again, like what I said in the off season, like, it's not like I was like, you know,

breaking new ground. Like, they have too fast as hell guys, you know, at receiver. And I want to see how this all, like, works out, like how it changes the geometry of how you play defense against this team because obviously if you have two field tilting players that makes things very difficult for the defense you know because you cannot zero in on either of these guys and i think tyreek and waddle have both proven that they're high high level players with incredible breakaway speed they both can get yards after the catch they both can create separation again it just makes things difficult on a defense and we've seen like in the in the years past we've seen like with

tyreek and kelsey like the problems they can cause defense uh now you have a very different version of it with Tyreek and Waddle. So, and in this offense, and with this quarterback who, you know, coming into the NFL, like the things I loved about him, quick processor, very decisive, gets the, gets, hits his back foot, gets rid of the ball. Like, he's passing. Like, he's, his time to throw is low. Like, I don't know having in front of me, it's like one of the lower time to throws in

the NFL, but he's also passing deep. It's like an interesting combination where he's like. The Tom Brady combo. Yeah. Yes. And so, you know, it's just a really fun offense to watch. So it's fun to see kind of like what I pictured in my mind, the theoretical version of what this offense could be coming to fruition.

So this is just a great game. Again, like you said, there's a lot of really fun games on the schedule this week. Yeah, no doubt. Yeah, I wasn't sure about like I needed to see it with McDaniel as a head coach and a schemer. And man, he's been awesome. I needed to see it with two. I needed to see that.

I was just like Tyra Kill is going to go from the Holmes and Andy Reed and still be as happy and productive. I don't think so. Oh, well, I was. was wrong. I mean, it's having a career year and their offense looks really good. So that is going to be a fun matchup. All right, those are our predictions, our predictions for what we're going to be talking about. Monday morning, we'll come back in a second and we'll get to a couple of your mailbag questions. Football fans make every Thursday one to remember with a no sweat same game parlay from

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Or visit KSgamblinghelp.com in Kansas, 18777-700. Stop in Louisiana. visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland, 18778. Hope, NYU, or text Hope NY, 467369 in New York, 1,800, 522, 470,000 in Wyoming, or visit www.1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia. All right, we're back. Let's get to the mailbag. Reminder. You can email us at the scrambled mailbag at gmail.com or just tweet at me. I check my mentions for now. You know, that might not continue forever. but so email might be better. You know, people are much nicer when they email you. It's more civilized.

Yeah, it's more civilized. They've got to take the time to open up their Gmail or email app or whatever. And they have an address there. It's not a random name. So I like the emails more. So appreciate everyone using that. All right. The first one was from Bridget.

And Bridget was funny because she admitted to rambling in her email, kind of like a stream of consciousness. But the gist of it, is that the Seahawks play the Rams two times in the last six weeks. And so this is a tricky scenario. So on one hand, she's a Seahawks fan. She wants the Seahawks to win games because then the Seahawks get in the playoffs. And that would be fun as we talked about.

It's fun when your team is in the playoffs. On the other hand, she wants that Broncos pick to be as high as possible. And so if the Rams win games, then that's better for the Broncos can jump. jump up above them. Because right now that the Rams have the third overall pick that goes to the Lions. The Broncos have the fourth overall pick that goes to the Seahawks. So basically she's, she's wondering, do I root for playoff positioning, or do I root for draft positioning, or do I root for knee? Like, what do I do here? And you are obviously the perfect person to have on to answer this question. So help Bridget out. Well, while I understand the, you know, like the, the, the, the,

theory or the logic and like trying to let the ram or gets i guess like make the rams pick worse and then therefore move up denver uh yes sir do move denvers pick up higher i think there's just like there's too many moving parts here i think you just got a route for the sioux to go the playoffs um you know you you got a route for the sioux to win number one because i do think they are a good enough team to kind of like play spoiler um their defense has really kind of falling off the last few weeks it makes me worried about that um but to me they have a good enough offense to, if they get to the playoffs, especially in what's been like a pretty wide open NFC, you know, play spoiler. I don't know. They're not necessarily, I would definitely not put them

among like the Super Bowl favorites or anything like that. But, you know, when they get going, they have enough skill, enough star power at the skill positions to make some noise, I think. And so, you know, you go back to like 2010 when the Seahawks got it, snuck into the playoffs at seven and nine, came in, they got a home game because they were the division winner and they beat the Saints. in what turned out to be one of the all-time great Seahawk games. It's one of the most memorable games I can remember as a Seahawk fan,

the Beastquake. And so I don't want to, I think the theoretical thought of moving up one spot or two spots or whatever it ends up being, and we don't even really know how the draft orders can all shake out. It's like there's so many moving parts.

I think you just got a route for the Seahawks to win and the rest will kind of take care of it. So I don't think there's enough, you just not like a tank for Trevor kind of situation here where it's like there's a generational player that's going to be at X spot that we have to get to the third pick to get this guy. Like I think that there's so many just like different scenarios that could play out that it's too hard to like worry about that and

like plan it out at this point. Does that make sense? Yeah, I love, I love Bryce Young. He's like my guy for, you know, I have the uneducated mostly draft takes where I'm just watching college football and I'm like, oh, this guy's awesome. I'm with you. Yeah. So I love, but to get Bryce Young, I mean, Now, like, that's not the difference between four and three. You know, that's the difference probably might be between four and one. Right. In the draft. So, yeah, I'm – listen, the fun seasons don't come along often,

and the best seasons are the ones that come out of nowhere when you have no expectations. I mean, the Seahawks had what, an over under, like Vegas win total of five and a half, six, something like that. Yeah. I think it was five and a half, yeah. Five and a half. And I thought they were going to stink, and they delivered a really fun season. They've slipped up a little, but I'm – I still believe in the offense.

I mean, even last week, that came against the Raiders, like that fumble is a self-inflicted mistake where if, you know, Gino to Kenneth Walker, if they don't fumble that ball, they might still win that game. I mean, it still went to overtime, even though the defense was getting carved up. And so it's a young, you know, they've got young players. That's the thing with the city. Like, there's going to be ups and downs.

Like I probably got a little carried away a month ago. But, you know, I was like, oh, my gosh, they've got tackles and corner. Everybody's a rookie. And they're all playing awesome. And it's like, all. It's a long season. There's going to be some ups and downs. And like, that's okay.

I still think they're going to make the playoffs. I absolutely think they're going to beat out either the Giants or commanders or both. I think they've got a fun offense. And I'm with you. I mean, they could absolutely win a playoff game. If you told me, they're sort of like a little Bengalsy from last year and make like the NFC championship. Like, that wouldn't be shocking.

You know, I think you've got the Eagles, Cowboys, and 49ers, at least I do on like one tier in the NFC as the favorites to get to the Super Bowl. but these aren't like juggernauts. Like you're not playing, you know, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Like you don't have to beat both those guys. You're in the NFC. So yeah, I would say I'm with Danny. I would say Bridget Root for the Seahawks to win.

And listen, part of fandom is some like emotional hedging and rationalizing. So in the off chance that they do lose, well, now you can say to your friends, hey, at least. Not the worst thing. Yeah, at least you got the draft pick, but you don't necessarily have to root for that. I think to add real quick, just to add to that, what you had said is, The other thing I think does make sense for them to try and, not like they would try and lose, but I do think it would be beneficial that if they finish strong,

go to the playoffs, it's like you're building a culture. This is a new young team. Like, this is a young team. Most of the veterans have been shipped off. Like last year, obviously they ship, or at the beginning of the season,

they shipped off Bobby Wagner. You know, they've moved on from a lot of like the hardcore, longtime Seahawks. Like, there's just not very many guys from the old era of Pete Carroll left on this team. And so having this new, foundation where if they, they're this new up and coming team, there's a lot of confidence.

There's a lot of like, you know, like Pete Carroll has always been about like program, building confidence, building like visualizing, you know, just like it's all, he's very believe, he's like the Phil Jackson guru like style coach. Like he believes in like visualization and all that stuff messaging and like all that stuff like matters and building this like the foundation of this team. So I think, you know, if they do finish strong, like that's going to be a bigger deal than like one or two picks like difference and like where they end up in the draft kind of deal you know what I mean? The other thing that I will mention is the Seahawks have sucked against the Rams historically.

Like eight of the last, I'm looking at their history here. The Rams are beating the Seahawks eight of the last 10 games. They just like, it's like they're kind of like their Achilles heel. So like it might be kind of a nice thing where one team beats another team. Yeah. The Rams beat the Seahawks. The Seahawks beat the 49ers. and the 49ers beat up on the Rams, I believe.

I can't, there's like a circular, like, thing. I could be getting it wrong. I apologize if I am. But, yeah, like, the Seahawks just can't, they just can't get over the hump with the Rams. Obviously, the Rams are like, all their star players are out now. So, like, it wouldn't really be the big difference. But it might be nice to kind of, like, get that monkey off their back

and finally trying to, like, you know, stack a few wins against the Rams. I think it would be good, honestly. So, yeah. And even when the Rams sucked and the Seahawks, were awesome. Like, I remember I covered the team in the first game I covered in 2015 when I was on the Seahawks beat. They were in St. Louis to

play that crappy Rams team and they lost in overtime. And then I learned at that point, oh, the Rams just always sort of muddy up these games against them. And the Seahawks never blow them out, right? It's styles make fights. Styles make fights. And for whatever reason, going back to like, basically the

entire Pekarral era, even when like the Rams were one of the worst teams in the NFL, they would always give the Seahawks problems. It would be like come down to the last play every single game. And so like, yeah, I mean, if you look even further back, like the last time, the CX did sort of dominate in that 2012, 2013 era when they were just so, so good. But like, otherwise, the Rams have been like just like consistently beating the Cilocks ever since.

And so it might just be nice to kind of like get off, get off that like pattern where they just like, maybe like just like whatever. They change their belief a little bit and feel like they can beat this team. Yeah. Yeah, I believe in the Seahawks this week. That Rams team, like you said, they just have nobody. I mean, it would be amazing if they hung around, which weird things happen in the NFL. That's why we watch.

But I like the Seahawks big in that game. All right, last question. T.WAS, I mean, this was another long one. I mean, some of you really put in the time for his emails. I mean, wow, impressive. Now, he asks, are the Packers the worst team building failure in recent NFL history? He admits, obviously there are worse teams, but this is a team that plans to contend for a title. Here's the plan based off the last four years or so of how they've spent their resources.

One, Rogers will carry the offense, regardless of the talent around him. 1A, wide receiver talent doesn't matter because he'll throw people open. Two, they'll instead spend on an elite defense. Three, they want a power running game and shut down the run to win in cold playoff games. and they got punked by San Francisco multiple times and we're tired of it. And so he goes on even further and finishes it with their mediocre

running team, mediocre run team with nobody who can get open on big downs. Their defense plays bend, but don't break and often breaks. And they just had the worst game against the run since before everybody at the Ringer was born. Yeah, that even, we're the old guys.

I guess that even includes us. Before we were born. So he asked, could this be going any worse for them? I can start with this one. I don't know that it's the worst team building failure in recent NFL history. I mean, there have been a lot of bad, bad teams. Look at the Broncos. Yeah, yeah, that's true.

Just look at the Broncos. But I agree that if you're a Packers fan, like, should be pretty furious about this, in my opinion. Just because it's not a lot of hindsight. You know, it's not like, oh, you're saying that now. No, like, I mean, I was saying others were saying if you trade Devante Adams, and I understand he wanted to be traded, you need to have a better plan than what they had. And I'm not saying they needed to go full Rams, but they definitely needed to go in that direction where we have an old quarterback. We just signed him to this monster deal. We need to contend for Super Bowls right now.

And that's not what they did. They took a more patient approach. They're building on the defense. Their defense still sucks. You know, they got no schematic advantage defensively. And I just feel like they needed to pour the resources into that offense one way or another, whether I was thinking during that Eagles Packers game, what if the Packers made that A.J. Brown trade that the Eagles made.

Yeah. I mean, we might be talking about them as a Super Bowl contender this year. I know they've had other issues. I know Rogers hasn't played well and they've had O line issues. But guess what? We're seeing it with Tyree Kill and A.J. Brown. And I'm probably missing three other, you know, with Justin Jefferson. Like a wide receiver like that makes a big, big, big, big, freaking difference and solves a lot of those other problems that you have.

And so just to go into the season, I know Christian Watson, it's been great to watch him the last three weeks. You can see the talent. But, dude, it's December 1st. Like, this needed to happen in September. So I agree with your overall frustration and you should be furious. You should be angry. I wouldn't go as far as to say it's the worst team building. failure in recent NFL history, but I do like to take.

Yeah, I'm with you exactly pretty much in lockstep on that. I think, you know, like you said, it's not hindsight analysis. Like we were saying this during the offseason. I think the one thing, I think maybe the one thing that's been the most clear for me this year, like if there was one theme that I could pick out, and this is coming, especially from like a fantasy perspective, is how important receivers are. Like, to me, I guess I just didn't realize quite how important. a game-changing playmaker at receiver can really be for an offense,

in particular, for a quarterback, you know? And so there's this, we have a running joke on the Ringer Fantasy Football Show that's like, if you've seen a rest of development, there's a scene where he's like got a dead dove in a bag. Job has a dead dove in a bag, and he labels it, dead dove do not eat. Michael opens it, and he's like, I don't know what I expected. It's a dead dove. And so this is the, what were the Packers expecting when they trade away Devante Adams?

Like, they expect the offense to be good still? Like, this is, like, the most important player in your offense, not named Aaron Rogers, you know? And so, yeah, like, trading away a superstar receiver and not really doing anything to, like, make it any better, just basically going along with the rest of the plan. You cannot depend on a rookie receiver. I'm sorry, especially a second rounder. It's great if they pan out, but you can't depend on that as like your plan A. And that's essentially what they did. Like, Alan Lazard, I think is a good role player.

again, they've had injuries, all that stuff goes into the, you know, the analysis. It's like they've had a little bit of bad luck too. But yeah, I mean, we've been kind of yelling at this team for years. Like they need to like invest in receiver. And then instead of investing in receiver, they did do that. But like, they trade away their best receiver and then, you know, sort of half asset and like fixing the or like replacing them. So, yeah, I mean, I think this is like, what did you expect to happen? This is exactly what we expected what happened.

and it did happen and not good planning. Yeah, we'll see what happens with them the rest of the way. We'll see where Rogers is playing in 2023. If it's Green Bay, if it's not green, I'll tell you what? It was only, what, two possessions, but I was like, okay, Jordan Love, you've got, I see the arm. I see he's making quick decisions. He was pretty fun in that very small sample where if I was a Packers fan, I'd kind of be like, Aaron, take your time coming back from that injury.

Yeah, let's, you know, you're not making the playoffs this year barring a, Let's see a little bit about what Jordan Love has to offer, but it sounds like Rogers, at least as of this recording, is going to try to play or give it a go, and he will be the starter against Chicago. All right, that will do it for this episode. Danny, what do you want anything to plug on the Ringer side written video, audio? What do you got coming up? Yeah, so check out the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. We have that three, no, four times a week. we are going to be scaling back and starting the NFL draft, the ringer NFL draft show, I think in two weeks from now.

So look for that. We're going to start ramping up draft coverage. We're going to have the NFL draft guide coming up, I think, not for like a month or two, but we're getting, you know, we're doing the work on that now. So yeah, we're kind of like transitioning a little bit from fantasy. Obviously, the fantasy playoffs just around the bend, but we're going to start doing a bunch of draft coverage too.

So really excited about that. There you go. That'll be awesome. Thank you to Danny Kelly for joining me. Thank you to Mike Wargon for producing additional production supervision by Connor and Arjuna Ramgopal. Stay tuned for the Ringer NFL preview show on this feed on Friday. And Sunday, you'll get the recap show. And then I will be back Monday with Ben Solak for extra point take.

And everybody, enjoy the games this weekend. And we will talk to you next week.