The Ringer NFL Show - Week 16 Recap: Dolphins Get a Statement Win Over the Cowboys, Lions Clinch the NFC North, and the AFC South is a Mess | Dual Threat

Episode Date: December 25, 2023

Nora and Steven are here to recap the Week 16 Christmas Eve games, starting with the Dolphins’ impressive victory over the Cowboys (00:58). They discuss Miami’s offensive and defensive gameplan, their injury concerns, and whether this loss is a concern for Dallas’ postseason hopes. They then run through their winners and losers of the week, including the Lions, Browns, Jaguars, and more (18:15). They end with a look at the playoff picture and who could be a surprise postseason threat (49:26). The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Nora Princiotti and Steven Ruiz Producer: Eduardo Ocampo Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Social: Kiera Givens and Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What's up, everybody. It's Austin Rivers from Offguard, and I've got some exciting news. Offguard hosted by me and my guide, Pasha Gigi, is officially moving to our own podcast feed. We are now dropping two shows every week. Me and Pasha go way back and talk so much hoops already that we figured it was time to fire up the mics and let you in on these conversations. Every week, Pasha and myself will hit on the biggest stories happening around the league. Tap into the show twice a week on our new Offguard feed on Spotify or wherever you get your podcast. Welcome to Joel Grette. I'm Norponzi. And I'm Stephen Ruiz.

Merry Christmas Eve, as Stephen and I are recording this, but hope is people listening to this, having a Merry Christmas or have happy holidays, no matter when you're hearing this episode, we've got a great one. And we are starting, as always, with the headline, which today is Dolphins Cowboys, which turned into a close game, as many ourselves included, we're hoping. the Dolphins win 22 to 20 on Jason Sanders' fifth made field goal at the end of regulation. Stephen, the Dolphins finally have a win against a team with a winning record. Are you happy to put that narrative to bed with this game? Yeah, it kind of feels like that was the game. It's like the anti-take game. Like, Dak led the Cowboys on a potential game-winning drive.

He made plays down the stretch. You can't really blame him for the law. Like McCarthy had some iffy moments in the first half, but I think he did a good job for the most part in the second half, adjusting. And then Tua and the Dolphins, they finally beat a good team. They finally won a meaningful game late in the season. So I don't know what the morning shows are going to have to talk about this week, but it's not going to come from this game.

If there was a unit that sort of stood out, because I agree with you, it's a little bit of an interesting game, a weird game, a hard game to form, like, big outsized impressions based off of. But for me, if there's one thing, this is about the Dolphins defense, really having proven that it's a force to be reckoned with, just the amount of pressure that they were able to get on Dak Prescott consistently, coupled with the really advanced stuff that they do in coverage, I thought definitely affected DAC for a lot of the game, definitely affected the I was especially we saw how stagnant they got after McCarthy got off of the game opening script for a long time.

And it really was until that almost game winning drive that ended up not being the game winning drive in the fourth quarter that they really found something. What did you think of Vic Fangio's defense for Miami? I mean, this was the type of defensive approach that has given DAC problems over the last couple of years, I'd say, like not playing an unsound. brand of football. Because if you have to blitz, if you have to play tight man coverage, DAC is so good at finding matchups, he's so good at changing the protection to pick up blitz, is that it's hard to play like that against him. But if you play a style where you just rush for, you keep a roof over the top of the passing game, you make them earn it by going on 10 and 12 play drives, eventually, like, someone's going to mess up, whether it's DAC, whether it's

the pass protection, which we saw a whole bunch, especially in the second half, the backup left tackle just had all sorts of issues trying to figure out who to block and who to pick up. And he was just letting free rushers go in Dak's lap. And to credit Dak, you made plays in those situations sometimes. It just wasn't enough. But I can't blame McCarthy for not being able to coach around that because it's such like a big hole that you can't like, I don't know. It's hard to do.

And I thought Fangio did a good job of exploiting that weakness. But I also, I think it goes to show that this offense does have. have, I don't want to say blueprint. I don't want to say there's a blueprint out on them, but there is a style of play that tends to give this team trouble when you're able to employ it like Fangio did on Sunday. Yeah, I don't think that I don't react to this game as, oh, McCarthy blew it and the Cowboys offense is totally screwed.

I think they ran into a really good team that's playing really well. I do think that it's never, it's not obviously one thing over and over again, but it just always seems to be something a little bit disjointed with them. they get into the first and goal at the one situation on the sequence where they did end up scoring, although it took seven tries to do it. And it's just like, and there's an irony to this being Mike McCarthy's offense

that I'm saying this about, but it's like, dude, like just run the ball. Like why is this the only offense in the league where it's like you can't just have the quarterback sneak it in or whatever or just do something simple? One thing that I thought was really interesting, to hear the broadcast point out was just the way that they were trying to protect DAC and past protection was really condensed. And so then you're ignoring the edges and the edges are just so

vulnerable. And that was how Chubb was kind of demolishing him a lot. So there's never like, it's not, I mean, they can do incredible things. The Brandon Cook's touchdown that that resulted on the seventh play in the low red zone at that point was incredible. And that's like stuff that most offenses can't do, right? Like Jalen Ramsey is in coverage. It's an incredible throw. It's an incredible cat. So they're like, you can't sit here after this game and they lose the game and it's,

you know, not good and blah, blah, blah, blah. You can't sit here and be like, oh, they suck. They can't do anything. But it's just always a little bit disjointed. Right. And it doesn't seem like, actually that the, the, dolphins who are not a perfect offense by any stretch. But I thought the dolphins showed a little bit more resilience in how they were able to adjust.

Because they were using the run game, but then it got later on. And Tyree Kill was heating up a little bit. What did you think about Mike McDaniel and the Miami offense? Yeah, I honestly thought this game was more about Mike McDaniel than even Vic Fangio. Because outside of a few missed-onial. opportunities in the first half. The Cowboys moved the ball well in this game. They had a success rate of 48%. They averaged 0.15 EPA per play. These aren't like world beating numbers, but they are good numbers. They are very good numbers. And I thought what Mike McDaniel did so well, like you said,

was adjust. And I thought one of the perfect examples of that was late in the game on the final drive. I think it's a third and three. The Cowboys had been playing zone coverage all game long. And then you saw Mike McDaniel kind of give them, he gave him. He gave. to a pre-snap motion that gave away whether it was zone or man. And it was a man coverage, the Cowboys kind of switched their game plan. And he had a screen pass called, which worked against man coverage. And I just thought that was an example of the growth we've seen from Mike McDaniel, where last year it was so flashy.

And it was like when the offense was going well, it was going so well. But when the offense didn't go well, it was like this team didn't have a chance to win and they didn't have a plan B. we've seen, not just on Sunday, but throughout the season, we've seen this team win ugly this year. Right. That first game against the Patriots on the Sunday night, that was a game that they would have lost in 2022,

but they have a run game now. They have a plan B on offense. They have a defense that they can rely on a defense that just isn't silly like it was last year. I can't think of a better word to describe how they played defense last year, but it's just an adult approach. And last year, it felt like the team was good, but it felt like they had some maturing to do.

And we've seen them take those steps this year. And I thought that's what this performance was about. Being able to win ugly and being able to win when two was not throwing for 350 yards and five touchdowns, and we're not playing dolphin noises on the pod. It's important. That's an important stat. Wins when we don't play dolphin noises on the pod.

Look, the word balance is complicated, but I do think that there's something about them, having found that run game, not just not for the sake of running the ball, but for the way that it, it forces defenses to sort of spread out against them because it is so, like it opens up so much space horizontally. And we'd seen and we'd sort of talked about, okay, this is a Dallas defense that really, really struggled with a very different type of run game in Buffalo. It was maybe in some ways a little bit less obvious in this, just because this was ultimately a pretty low-scoring game, but still, I think, like, you see something, like, the Cowboys not get

a sack on Tua until the fourth quarter. And part of that is just because they were so spread out and they're trying to defend so many things. And I think it really speaks to what McDaniel has organized with the Dolphins offense, which, again, like, we're not playing dolphin noises. but it's almost a little bit more, like, it feels more trustworthy. It feels like they have more levers they can pull. And as we go into the playoffs, I think it's really important. So some of the narrative stuff with this game is a little silly. But I do, like, there's something to that for Miami where they're not a perfect team.

But I trust them in a way that a couple months ago, it just felt like, okay, Maybe there's no more exciting offense when everything is going right, but if something goes wrong, just they fall apart. I don't know that that's a totally fair criticism of them anymore. And a lot of that has to do with how well the defense is playing, but some of that has to do with the adjustments on offense too. The one thing that I would just flag for them, it seems like they're lucking out as maybe not the right term, but doing okay with some of the injuries, not turning. out to be super severe, but there was a moment during this game where, okay, Tyree Hill is playing well in the second half, but obviously is coming off of an injury. Robbie Chosen gets concussed. Waddle left the game. Moster it went out and then came back in and scored and looked fine, but still that makes you a little freaked out. Obviously, the state

of the offensive line has had to do with injuries. So mostly, I think this is this game is really good news for the dolphins, but just to point out, they've taken some hits, and it's definitely something to pay attention to. And this is an offense that kind of puts their receivers in harm's way, and maybe Tua is a big driving force in that because he throws so early over the middle of the field, and, like, they've built the entire passing game over it. But that's, like, the most dangerous spot to be in as a receiver. Catching these in-breakers with safeties looking to take your head off.

And I'm kind of surprised that they don't deal with more injuries in the receiving core, but what we've seen over the last two weeks is that Mike McDaniel has been able to work around not having those two studs on the outside. He hasn't had those guys, Tyreek Hill and Jalen Wado on the outside threatening defenses downfield, and it hasn't derailed this offense. Last week, they went off for a bunch of points. This week, they moved the ball really well. They also missed some opportunities.

Even on like the last drive, instead of a field goal, if Tua hits Tyreek in stride on that pass over the middle, it's probably a touchdown. And they don't need that last second field goal to go ahead. But the offensive state afloat without those pieces that we all thought was the key to the offensive success of this team over the last two years. And we've seen over the last couple of weeks, that's not the case any longer, at least. Right.

It's just checking for an update on Waddle. It doesn't seem like there is one. Obviously, I think that would be that seems like the most potentially significant heading down the line. The rest of the Dolphin season is interesting. because right now they're 11 and 4. If they lose to Baltimore next week and the bills win, I think the bills are playing the Patriots, then Miami will be 11 and 5 and the bills will be 10 and 6 going into that week 18 game

that would end up being for the division because the bills, if the bills win, the bills would own the tiebreaker. It's funny because I was thinking about, it sort of felt like if you're rooting for that game to have stakes and be meaningful, sort of seemed like, oh, well, Buffalo's got to make up ground on Miami, so you get closer to that situation if Miami loses. I actually think that, like, this is, this might shape up to be the most interesting possible outcome for that.

Now, obviously, if the dolphins go and beat the Ravens, then the bills are not going to have a chance to do that in that game is not going to be as meaningful. But the race for the AFC East is still alive, which is for those of us rooting for competitive and interesting and meaningful week 18 football, that's good news. Yeah. How do you feel about that matchup now?

Because I feel like after I needed to see this to feel confident picking Miami in that matchup, and that in conjunction with what we saw at Buffalo on Saturday night, which wasn't the most convincing performance. Like, if you want to nitpick wins, that's the win to nitpick over Easton Stick. I feel like I would pick the dolphins at this point. I feel more comfortable in them sustaining this style of offense. I feel more comfortable about them on defense, for sure, with all the injuries Buffalo's dealing with. And I don't think our evaluation of the odds offense is based on vibes. Like, it seems like we're like, oh, yeah, Joe Barry's doing a great job.

Or Joe Brady's doing a great job. Nobody is saying Joe Barry's doing a great job. Let me make that correction. But, like, if you look at the numbers, the Bill's offense has not been as good as it was before he took over. The results have been better, but the schedule also got a little bit easier. I feel better about the dolphins. And if the Ravens lose on Monday night, all of a sudden, next week isn't just a game about

the AFC East. Next week is about the number. one seat. The dolphins can wrap it up next week with a win over the Ravens if they lose on Monday night. So we might be eight days away from saying the dolphins have the clearest path to the Super Bowl and we might be eight days away from considering them favorites to make the Super Bowl. Yeah. I mean, or were the better part of two weeks away from, oh, wow, now they're a wildcard team and blah, blah, blah, blah. Like, both of those feel within the range of possibilities.

In that Bill's matchup, yeah, it's close. It's an interesting one. I'm still, I think I still, I still would worry about,

I guess I would worry about Miami in that spot a little bit more just because I think the pressure is newer to them. I also think that the, even though it was a very different team at that point, especially at very different defense, there's sort of a lingering, lingering impression of that October game.

So I don't know. I guess I count on the bills to be a little bit looser in that somehow. So I would probably, in my heart of hearts, lean buffalo, but it would not be by a lot. And I would not count the dolphins out in that matchup and that rematch whatsoever. Dallas lets the Eagles back into the lead in the NFCE. with the loss here. Not, you know, that was sort of,

that was always sort of an A-B situation, not too many more implications in terms of the playoffs there. I mean, how are you feeling about the Cowboys in general as a playoff contender? I feel like I felt like a month ago. And for me, that's a step back. Because like two weeks ago,

I thought this team was a little bit different from what we saw last year. But this still feels like a team that's going to have a hard time overcoming the 49ers. Because at the beginning of the show, I talked about how there seems to be this blueprint where if you can rush for and play zone coverage behind that, you can really give this offense problems. Well, nobody does that better than the 49ers over the last three years. So that still feels like a bad matchup. And then you have to wonder how Philly's going to adjust after the game, after the second

game, they're going to have an adjustment if they had to. to play again. Detroit is a tough team, especially if you have problems on the run defense. That's something they can exploit. So I don't know. I don't feel good about the Cowboys. I don't think this was like a performance that should worry anybody. But I think

over the course of the season, their performance should worry you going up against the top of the NFC. I just got to say before we can get to winners and losers. But Jason Sanders, I mean, a Merry Christmas to you, my

the 29-yarder was the game winner, but 5-for-5 on field goals, and I think three of them were 50-plus, long of 57. Great day at the office. He had a Christmas sweater on in the post game. Just good stuff all right. Did you see Christian Wilkins,

like carrying him around on his shoulders in the locker room after? He got the Rudy treatment. This guy's like he's having the best Christmas Eve of all of us. That is amazing. I love it. Merry Christmas to Jason Sanders. All right.

Take a quick break. Come back, do winners and losers. Yep. All right, we are back on Dole Threat. It's time for winners and losers. Stephen, who's your first winner? My first winner is Jared Gough. We joked about Jared Gough getting bullied by Brian Flores

during the midweek pod on Extra Point Taken. It didn't happen in this game. And let me tell you, Brian Flores really tried. He threw all those looks at Jared Gough, the looks that used to make Jared Gough bleep in his pants. Not this time. There's no reason to check Jared Gough's pants after this game. His pants are intact.

And, like, it wasn't a great game for Jared Gough. He averaged just over six yards per attempt. He only threw one touchdown. But he avoided the catastrophic mistake. And the Vikings put him in spots where, in the past, Jared Gough would make a mistake. Like, they put him under pressure. They forced him to move on third down a couple times.

And time after time, Jared Gough made the right play. Sometimes that was an inclination, but that beats a sack. That beats an interception like he's done before against Flores. Before this game, he has faced Brian Flores twice. He averaged mind. point four EPA per dropback in those games. He was sacked six times and he threw three interceptions, including the game losing

play in the Super Bowl in 2019 against the Patriots. This was a revenge game for him. And I got to take my hat off to him. I'm not one to celebrate Jared Gough too often, but he deserved it this time. He beat Brian Flores. He defeated his bully. And who doesn't love when that happens? Yeah, no, this is a statement.

I mean, and I don't want to go too far with that because it's against a, a Vikings team starting Nick Mullins as the fourth quarterback that they've started this season. But the Lions win the division for the first time since 1993. They lock that up with this win. It is Jared Goff going up against a division rival, but more importantly that Brian Flores defense going up this thing that has just like, not just given him trouble, but led to the embarrassments of his career. The two worst moments of his

LA career were authored by Brian Flores. And this is the best moment of his Detroit career. So it's fitting that Brian Flores was on the other sideline and he was the guy that he defeated to win this division. Totally.

Slade the Dragon. I mean, it's a, it is, it was a team effort. James and Williams is looking really good for them lately. The run game, obviously, is always critical with Detroit. If there's, you know,

if there's anything that goes in the sort of concerning call him it's defensively. I mean, Nick Mullins putting up 24 was not without its warts, but

they do sort of need to tighten up there a little bit. But yeah, no, Jared Goff, Jared Goff, unequivocally one of the big winners of this week. And congrats to Nick Mullins for becoming the quarterback with the highest career interception percentage on Sunday. Shout out to him. 411 yards, though.

He had to overcome playing in Kyle Shanahan's QV-friendly offense to get that stat, by the way. Very impressive. But he, like, I got a question that the choice to bench Josh Dobbs a couple weeks ago. Because if, like, the goal was to put the ball in the hands of a more competent quarterback who would avoid mistakes, that has failed. Because Nick Mullins can't stop turning the ball over. He threw four interceptions in this game.

He fumbled another time. He nearly fumbled twice. They had to be reviewed and overturned for him to avoid that. This was almost a seven-turned. over a game. It was almost a full Nathan Peterman game. And they only lost by six points. All I'm saying is you put the Pashternaut out there, you put the rocket scientist out there, I think they might have won this game. I liked your platoon idea. I mean, talk about a dual threat. There's still time. Still time, Vikings. You don't need to let Nick Mullins throw four picks.

All right. Speaking of not throwing four picks, but maybe wanting to and as hard of parts. My winner is the Cleveland Browns and Joe Flacco. Now 10 and 5. This is just amazing. The Cleveland Browns have 10 wins. They can clinch a playoff spot on

Thursday against the Jets. 38-year-old Joe Flacco is playing quarterback. This is the team that has the most cap space on injured reserve of any team in the league. And they're looking pretty good right now. I mean,

this game, and obviously it's against a Texan's team that is still without CJ Stratt, and I think we'll get to that in a second because they really missed him in this. But the Browns are just, I mean, they put up 36 points. Amari Cooper set a single game receiving record, 265 yards, Brown's record. That connection just looks unbelievably good. Joe Flacco goes out. his first play from scrimmage goes for like 54 yards. I mean, it's just amazing that this is still working out for them.

But I do, I kind of think that it's, it's, I don't want to say stable, but I think that they can do this against some decent teams. So I'm just, I continue to be really tickled by the Browns being able to make this happen. Joe Flacco Off the Couch Now goes down As the man with the most passing yards Bya Brown in his first four starts

The list, the one, two, three, It's pretty excellent. Number one, Joe Flacco in 2023. Number two, Josh McCown in 2015, and number three is Baker Mayfield. So that's a real Holy Trinity right there. but Cleveland's got to be feeling really, really, really good right now.

It is obviously not the way that they expected to be doing this during the offseason, but it still counts. This is one of the best defenses in the league. And Flacco comes out every game just trying to throw bombs. And some of them get intercepted, but some of them don't. And I don't count them out. I just really, I just don't. No, he's a passive participant in this offense right now.

And this was the first, like, actually good game he had. Like, ignore the two interceptions. I know that's hard to do. But he averaged, like, nearly nine yards per attempt, and he averaged, like, nearly a half a point of EPA per dropback. This was, like, actually a good game. He was bombing it downfield. Yeah, I don't think he...

I mean, I get what you're saying that he's a passive participant in the sense that, like, Joe Flacco was not really, like, a long-term stakeholder in the Cleveland Browns. But he's, like... he's slinging it. Right, he just throwing it. And like, either the defense intercepts it or Amari Cooper catches it. It's not up to him. That's what I'm saying.

Like, he just happens around him. Like, have you been saying with him. But, like, he was throwing downfield. He was throwing outside of the numbers. Like, this wasn't a cheap, what it was it, 365 yards? This wasn't a cheap 365 yards for Cooper. Like, these weren't catches and runs. He only had 60 yards after the catch.

Like, that's not even a top 10 mark for his career. he still had put up this record. And that's a testament. I can't believe I'm saying this to Joe Flacco, just slinging the ball downfield. Like, I don't want to bring back the, is Joe Flacco elite jokes from like 10 years ago? But like, is he playing well?

Like, on Sunday, he definitely did. I'm just saying that we've been here before. Now, I don't want to insinuate by saying that the Browns are going to win the Super Bowl with Joe Flacco, but we've been here before. It's been exactly 10 years. Wait, no. No, my math's off. It's been 11 years since the Super Bowl run.

It's amazing stuff. The Houston angle, I don't want to overwork, obviously, because they're so banged up and C.J. Stroud was still out. I do think that this was a really good example of just how good Stroud is already and has been this season when he's been in there, just because his pocket management, and that's a subtle thing, right? Like that's like little subtle movements and evading pressure and all of that. But it's not something you necessarily notice on a snap to snap basis when he's playing,

but against a really good defensive front like Cleveland has, when it's Case Keenham in there, you notice when it's gone. And I think you realize how much his abilities, how much Stroud's abilities were helping the offensive line look maybe better than they certainly have with Keenum. in there and obviously against a defense like Cleveland's that's going to show up even more. The Houston defense did not have a good outing here. And there are definitely some questions about, you know, would you've wanted Derek Stingley on Cooper a little bit more during this game?

I do think, though, like some of it was just the game's grip. Some of it was just they wound up in a really tough spot because the offense couldn't move the ball. and that really continued until the backups were in on both sides. So, you know, in terms of the playoff stuff, obviously the Texans are hoping they'll get strad back in there and they've still got a shot. But I do think that the ways in which he has helped them all season, you just really see it when they go up against a pass rush that's really strong. lens. Yeah. Is there any concern about Damico Ryan's defense kind of falling off the face of the earth over the last like two

weeks? Like giving up that like we're celebrating Joe Flacco but giving up that to Joe Flacco is kind of concern. Yeah. I mean it's not good. I do think that they get some degree of pass

just being young. You know, Will Anderson's not totally healthy. again, I do think that this game just got away from them. I mean, they were down by multiple scores so fast. But it's definitely a question. But sometimes you just, you run into Joe Flacco and what are you going to do? It happened to Peyton Manning back in the day.

It happened to the 49ers and John Harbaugh or Jim Harbaugh. Can it happen to anyone. Bill Belichick. All right. Who's the first loser of the day? I was going to make the Colts my first loser. but you know what, I'm going to make Arthur Smith a loser, even though the Falcons won 29 to 10.

And I'm going to make him a loser because he finally kind of listened to fantasy football people and gave Bison Robinson the ball. He only gave him 12 carries, but he gave him a season high 10 targets in the past game. And he had seven receptions for 50 yards. He had 112 yards total. And it worked. They scored 29 points. That's a season high.

But I do think it goes to show like this performance for them, just how painstaking. their current offensive setup is where it seems like they have all these motions and all these formations just to get like a five-yard gain. And you saw that in this game. I was kind of surprised that their season high was 29 points. I expected them to have better games than that. And this didn't look like some like offensive explosion.

I think it does like kind of reveal a ceiling on this style of offense and why maybe the falcons should think about moving on from Arthur Smith in the offseason. But for now, this kept their season alive. And I think Bijon Robinson and feeding them the ball had a big, part in that. I hesitate to give the Colts a big L because they are, I don't know,

they've overachieved the season. You kind of saw their defense slipped for the first time, really all season long in this one. Gardner Minchew didn't look good. Shane Steichen didn't do a good job after the initial first couple of drives where he had a good game plan initially,

but I think Ryan Nielsen, the defensive coordinator for Atlanta, adjusted and Gardner Minchew just had no chance after that. They didn't score after their, I think after the first quarter. Bad game sets them back in the playoff chase, but I don't think

them making the playoffs is necessarily a good thing for this season. Setting them up for a better draft pick would probably be the better option for them going forward. So there are no real winners in this game. Oh, come on. You want to make the playoffs at that point? I mean, yeah, if you're here, you might as well make it.

But if you don't, then who cares? Like, you get a better draft pick. But no winners in this game, but the Falcons, I guess, get credit for avoiding the loss. But anytime you get shown up by fantasy, the fantasy community, you get it now. So Arthur Smith, you get it now. The Colts are lucky that Houston and Jacksonville also lost. So now they're all in an

eight and seven tie or a tie at eight and seven in the South. The Falcons, I mean, you do kind of have to give them credit for the fact that I think this is, this is at least closer to what it was supposed to look like, right? Like the run game is working. The playmakers like Robinson are helping in the run game and in the passing game. You're getting good contributions from special teams. The defense is doing a good job. The defense held an opponent under 300 yards, total yards of offense for the seventh time this year. They sacked Gardner Minchu six times.

So, yes, it's, in that sense, I think you do give the Falcons credit that, like, this is sort of what it was supposed to be. I agree with you from the Arthur Smith perspective. if it does kind of put a bow on it to be like, oh, this probably could have happened sooner. Right. The whole season, he's been like, just trust me, man. You guys don't know what you're talking about. You guys, this football is a very complex sport.

And like, there's more, no, just give the ball to your best players and good things tend to happen. Like, this is about talent. This league is about talent. It's not about your play calls and your, whatever, your system. I don't know. I'm just frustrated. It's not about your system, man. That's right.

I do think this has been, I do think this has been a, good year for, oh my God. I'm blaming this on Charles McDonald, my friend, who's a tortured Falcons fan. Because the only time he refers to the Falcons GM, he refers to him as Ball Terry. And I can't remember his last thing. Terry Fahno. Terry Fonno, that's his name. His name's not Ball Terry.

I think this has been a good year for him. Because, like, Jesse Bates had another interception. They turned that defense around. It's the first time in my memory that the Falcons have a good defense. B. John Robinson, when he gets the ball, he looks good. When Kyle Pitts gets the ball, he looks good. Yeah, no, it's not like they can't play. Right. They just need a coach who will just put out a normal game plan.

Who's not trying to stick it to fantasy people every week. The New York Times playoff model currently has that they have a 12% chance to make the playoffs. So not looking great at this point, but it's not completely over. All right. I have an L that really doesn't have a lot to do with the playoff picture. And it is, it is week 16. And we really should be talking about the teams that are going to be in the postseason. But I need to talk to you about the Washington commanders who lost 30 to 28 to the Jets.

The Jets, by the way, nearly gave up a 20-point lead and might have had a very Jetsy situation in which the Johnsons came out and said that Joe Douglas and Robert Sala were going to get another year, or at least there was a report saying that that was the case, and everybody in Jetsland was maybe sort of like breathing a sigh of relief. And then there was a moment when it seemed like they were going to have this really embarrassing loss where they blew this huge lead. But they figured it out. The commanders, however, just had the second straight week where Sam Howell was replaced in a blowout in what was at the time of a blowout by Jacoby Reset.

And Jacobi Reset immediately looked so much better. um howell in the past two games has completed 17 out of 48 passes for a 158 yards a touchdown and three interceptions it just looks like such a referendum on who he's been and who he's been in that offense once defensive coordinators have gotten some film on him gotten a little bit of a picture of what he can do uh it's good for their draft position for the commanders that they lost this game but this is just turning into a tough look when it keeps being really pretty plainly

obvious that the better passer has just sat on the bench all season. So I think even though they came back to make the loss not by a lot and the loss is in the

record books a good thing for them because of the draft position, I just this is just a tough thing. Yeah, the jig is up for Ron Rivera. Like his whole thing this year was, oh, we've found a quarterback. Like, we're not waiting, but maybe we found a quarterback in November, in early November, he said, like, I believe we have found our guy. Jonathan Allen was like, we found our franchise quarterback. This was November 9th.

No one's saying that anymore. I'll tell you that much. And I have the huge L for Jonathan Allen's quarterback evaluation abilities. Right. Yeah, try to walk a bottle of my shoes and do some quarterback ranking Jonathan Allen. Peter King might write about, never mind. But anyway, I add the splits, the on-off splits with Jacoby percent. Let me preface this by saying on-and-off splits are very bad for football.

There are too many moving parts, especially in a small sample size, but I don't care because this is funny. In 42 plays, Washington's offense is averaging 0.57 EPA per play, which would lead the NFL by double. 200% of the league leaders EPA per play. With percent off the field, they're averaging minus. 0.1 EPA with a 39% success rate. So, like, this is a totally different offense. With Sam Howe out there, they're the Jets. With Brissette out there, they're the 49ers.

And, I mean, that's evidence. That's evidence for something that I think both of us have thought throughout this year that Jacoby Brissette was always the best quarterback on that roster. And the only reason Sam Howell was getting a chance was for Ron Rivera to be like, hey, look, we got something we could build around, maybe give me. another year on the job. I think at this point, it's hard to make that argument. After the game, last week after the game, Rivera was like, no, we're just sticking with

how. We're just trying to prevent injuries here. After today, he was like, I don't know who the starting quarterback is going forward. And there's no way you can look at that locker room after what Brissette has done the last two weeks in limited time and be like, we're going with Sam Powell. He gives us the best chance. At this point, you can't even lie about it. It's so obvious who the better quarterback is.

Right. which again puts them in a tough spot because they would be better off if they continued to lose games down the stretch but I agree with you you can't sell it to the locker room and I mean you know who knows if if Jacoby Brissette will continue

to make the commanders into the 49ers offense probably not if he doesn't indeed start I would maybe bet against it but it's just you see all the ways in which not everybody is on the same page, the incentives for a coach to try to keep his job, the team to get a better draft

pick, the players to feel like they're motivated and that they're being put in the best position. It's just not a good situation because those things are never perfectly aligned within a team, but the best teams, they're usually a little bit more in concert and they're just not at all matched up in Washington right now. Just to add another, just to add another thing. I think playing a quarterback who, like Sam Howe, kind of makes like evaluating the pieces around him a little bit more difficult. I think the office of line looked worse because he's not the best in the pocket. I think the defense looked worse because they were making up for a bad offense a lot. And like, I have to ask if Bressette's in there from the very beginning, I think

this team is still in this wild card race, which is like not a high bar to clear in the NFC by any means. But I don't think we're trading Chase Young and Montess Red at the trade. Everyone's in the wildcard race. Yeah, that's a good point. The Bears are still in the wildcar race. But I don't think we're trading Montez Sweat and Chase Young for pennies on the dollar if we're out of the playoff race at the trade deadline. And if Jacoby Reset was starting the whole time. This team is worse off now because they stuck with Howl throughout this

and tried this approach that could have saved Rivera's job, but now we're seeing the effect it's at. It's set the franchise back. I know we joke about it. But Brock Purdy-like tendencies was one of the funniest and strangest moments of the offseason. And it genuinely says a lot about where this team is right now. We think Sam Howell has a little Brock Purdy in him.

Was just a fascinating window into the mindset of the man at the helm. But Washington now officially eliminated, tough break. We'll see how they handle the rest of the season. but again, things seem to be a little bit at odds. All right, that is two winners and two losers. Since it was a little bit of an abridged schedule today, we decided that we would each bring a winner, each bring a loser, and then do a wild card.

So it could be a winner, could be a loser. Do you want to go first, Stephen? Yeah, I'm going to give the Jaguars a loss for this performance. They lose 30 to 12 against the bucks. Thankfully, this didn't affect their playoff standing at all because the whole AFC South lost this week. But I think this is a major red flag. This little slide at the end of the year

where things aren't getting better with this offense. Trevor Lawrence seems to be regressing across the board. And then he leaves this game with a shoulder injury after going through concussion protocol all week. And the reason why he hurt his shoulder is because he was out there down 30 points diving for first downs when he was scrambling. That's how he got hurt. And I think it's a microcosm of this.

season as a whole in this offense, where everything just seems so hard for Trevor and everything just on his plate that if he doesn't make those plays, if he doesn't die for that first down, like the Jagbyers offense is leaving the field. They're punning the football. Once again, no running game to speak of. I think they ran for less than 40 yards on this game. They had Etienne's mom, like begging Santa for run blocking, improved run blocking over the weekend on Twitter, which became a thing in Jacksonville. There are no easy buttons. Press Taylor has not. figured out a way to run the football. He hasn't found other concepts that kind of supplement

the run game with like screen passes, play action shots. He hasn't punished defenses for being able to sell out against the run. And that was the case against the bucks. When you're one dimensional against a Todd Bulls defense, it's very hard to win. And that was the problem with this game. Trevor throws two interceptions

and like you look at the box court and you're like, oh, Trevor played poorly again. But like if you watched play to play, he wasn't that bad. It was just the mistakes and those mistakes came in situations where no quarterback tends to win. It's like third and long facing pressure. No one's open.

And you've got to make a play. You've got to throw it down field. And the other team catches it sometimes. And that's what happened in this game. That's what's been happening over this little losing streak. I think it was a month ago when we made the AFC South winners after that Jags-Texans game. We really jinxed the division. Since then, like nobody in that division has won.

They're all, they all look terrible. And the Jaguars are like the poster child for that ineptitude. And really, I mean, yes, they don't. hurt their playoff seating on a literal level because the other teams in the division lost too. But just more broadly, a month ago when we were saying that, they were tied for the fewest losses in the conference. And right now, they're still in control of the division, but it's a three-way tie.

And anything can happen. And they own some tiebreakers. And there's, you know, they still in. according to the using the New York Times model again they have a 70% chance of making it

but it's really changed a lot and just how far they've they've sort of changed their long-term outlook in terms of being able to compete once they get to the playoffs but also a little bit

opening up some possibility that they might not get there is pretty striking when you think about how quickly that happened And obviously, Trevor dealing with an injury has been part of it, but it doesn't feel like that's the majority of the issue. It seems much more a broader issue with the offense, just not having a run game, not understanding what other elements to lean on, especially without Christian Kirk in there.

And it's hard to have a lot of faith in them, even if they do manage to score. week in at this point. A team I'm curious to hear how you're feeling about right now is the team that I'm going to talk about with my wild card. I'm going to make the Seattle Seahawks a winner. And the Seahawks beat the Titans 20 to 17. Geno 25 of 26 for 227 yards, two touchdowns. this was a hard-fought game. Again, another sort of down-to-the-wire. Seahawks managed to pull one out at the end. But Seattle is now 8 and 7 after those back-to-back tight wins,

which now has them in the 7-seed spot in the NFC. They've got games against Pittsburgh at home and then on the road against Arizona to finish things out. So still some work to do to make sure that they do, end up with a playoff spot. But my question, as a close Gino observer, is having seen him, you know, he was injured and he struggled a little bit at the beginning of this game, but seemed like he really shook off some rest.

How are you feeling about the Seahawks chances, assuming they do make the playoffs? Just kind of what's the vibe that you're getting from Seattle right now? I mean, the record doesn't show it because they're two and four in their last six. But if you actually look at those games, these aren't the worst losses in the world. They've lost to San Francisco twice. They lost that close game to Dallas where DAC was just out of his mind and they still had a chance to win on the road. And then they lose to Los Angeles, the Rams, who are playing some of the best football in the league right now by one point. Outside of that, they've won the other games.

They've won the last two weeks, including a win over the Eagles. I think they're a solid team. I don't think they're a threat by any means to any of the top teams in the conference. Maybe Dallas, because they did play them tough and they've already beaten the Eagles, and they've already beaten Detroit. So maybe I should take back what I'm saying. But they're not a threat to San Francisco, and that's the team you're going to have to get through to be a contender. But I do think this is a team that can win a playoff game.

And I don't think we were going to say that a couple weeks ago. And that's an improvement. And that's progress for this team. Long-term viability, like I'm a fan of Gino. I don't think Gino is the type of quarterback you build around. I don't think Gino's the type of quarterback that can carry a team to a Super Bowl unless you put a perfect team around him. But if your only goal is to stay relevant in this league, which I think may be the goal of Pete Carroll at this point in his career, Gino's a good enough quarterback to do that.

I think the roster is good enough to do that, especially if they make some improvements over the offseason. But I don't know. I think they're going to make the playoffs for sure. Like you said, they play the Steelers, they play the Cardinals. They should win both of those games. they don't have the stiffest competition for that last spot. It's Minnesota and Green Bay. The vibe should be good.

The one thing that I will flag for them, no pun intended, I guess, truly I didn't do that on purpose, is that penalties are a real issue. They're the most penalized team in the league, and they had six. They got six flags for 47 yards against the Titans. Some of them were just in spots that seemed like they could have wound up being really, really critical. Artie Burns had an unnecessary roughness penalty on what ended up being a go-ahead touchdown

drive for the Titans in the fourth quarter. Of course, Seahawks end up being able to come back and that's fine. But they do tend to be a little sloppy. But I agree. And again, you know, Gino had missed two games. And I thought particularly in the fourth quarter when he led two touchdown drives, he looked like he'd found that form again. And when Gino looks solid, D.K. Metcalf made a one-handed touchdown catch that looked

really impressive and sort of like vintage DK. Maybe not when we talk about the 49ers, but that's sort of true of a lot of teams. But I think this is a team that can compete in the NFC playoffs. Again, the NFC championship question is complicated. by the fact that there is one team that just looks better than everybody else. But I think the Seahawks could absolutely be in an interesting game

with a lot of the other division winners. The problem is if they are the seventh seed and they win that first game, they're getting the 49ers no matter what, and that's the end. They shouldn't even play the game. We've seen this movie enough over the last two years. It would be the sixth time they play them.

And I don't think they've gotten within a single score in either of the, in any of those games. They certainly haven't this year in last year's playoffs. I mean, maybe there should be like, there should be a rule where if it's just like nobody wants to see this,

we can swap one matchup or whatever. We'll have to bring it up at the next competition committee meeting. All right. Anything else? Or shall we take a quick break and then we were going to go through a little bit of the playoff picture

as it stands right now? I would say one thing. shout out to Pete Carroll, if they do make the playoffs, he's only missed the playoffs twice since 2012, which, I mean, for a guy that gets a lot of shit from his own fan base, especially of late, he's keeping the ship afloat. The results, the results speak for themselves.

All right, we'll take a quick break and we'll be back. All right, we are back on dual threat. Every week we come here and we try to make sense of the playoff picture or say we can't make any sense of the playoff picture because it's just such a muck, but maybe it'll be better next week. And it's still kind of mucky. But I do think it's starting to come,

it's starting to be a little bit more clear. Some teams helped their cases today. Some teams obviously did not. The Eagles being back in front in the NFC East, even though they weren't playing, is helpful to them. The Falcons and Seahawks in the NFC definitely helped themselves with those wins that we talked about. The Saints and the Bengals are looking like their climbs are a little bit tougher at this point.

We talked about the Colts. The Jags are still fine, but big picture. Is there anyone, Stephen, who you look at as either outside of the playoff picture, but still really interesting to think about potentially making a push for it? it or is there anyone who you would be really worried about if you were that team on the inside right now? I would say Green Bay. I don't think they're going to make it. They have Minnesota on the road. They have Chicago at home to end the season and there are, I think it's one game back and they're back of the Rams and Seattle. That's going to be tough to overcome both those teams because

they don't have the hardest schedules, especially if the Rams get the 49ers backups in week 18. That's still up for grabs. If the Ravens win on Monday night, I think that will be a game. maybe Green Bay has renewed hope. But if Green Bay does make it in somehow, this is a good football team. I know Joe Barry had another concerning performance, but we're seeing the ceiling of the offense with Jordan Love. We're seeing it come together.

We've seen these players improve even when there's been injuries. Christian Watson, they're missing Jayden Reed today, still put up 33 points. I think that's a dangerous team. And like we have been saying, this NFC field is very flawed, and any of these teams outside of San Francisco could lose at any point in the playoffs,

I think Green Bay is a team that I would be scared of if I'm one of those top four seeds outside of San Francisco. Yeah, so right now the NFC standings are San Francisco, Detroit, and then Philly, Tampa, Dallas is the first wild card,

and then the Rams in Seattle are the second and third wildcard teams in the NFC. The contenders, in theory, to sneak into one of those last spots are really the Vikings, the Falcons, the Packers, and the Saints. Some of them obviously have tougher roads than others, but those are the seven and eight teams. While the Rams in Seattle are eight and seven, as is Tampa Bay. But Tampa is the four seed by virtue of the NFC South. I can't believe the Falcons screwed this up this badly.

but at this point, I do think that I have to sort of, even though they had a good game today, let go my priors and say that it looks a lot like, like the Bucks are going to win this division and they're going to be deserving of whatever that means. The thing with that, though, is that Green Bay is interesting, but just with that defense,

I don't know that I would rather see them in the playoffs than the Rams or the Seahawks. I think I would rather see the I'd rather see the Seahawks over the Packers I think just because they have I think the Seahawks have these flaws that are hard to coach around whereas I think Green Bay's flaws

would be easier to coach around if they just put out a better game plan on defense I don't know if Joe Berry has that in them but I don't know they don't seem as flawed as Seattle Tampa Bay it looks like we're heading for a rematch of Tampa Bay and Dallas in a wild card matchup again last year Dack just went to town on Tampa Bay's defense it was Tom Brady's defense

it was Tom Brady's last game. I have to ask, can we retroactively put Tom Brady on fraud watch? Like Baker Mayfield comes in and they don't miss a beat. If anything, they're better than they were a year ago. Baker is better than Brady? I mean, if they absolutely, if they end up in a matchup with the Cowboys and Baker absolutely lights it up, we might have to have that conversation. Okay, I'll be ready for it.

Please, no one clip this. That was a joke. I hope Tom Brady is having a nice time, like skiing with his kids or whatever he's doing. AFC remains also a cluster. But right now, Baltimore, Miami, Kansas City, Jacksonville, still leading the division there. And then the three wildcards as it currently stands

are Cleveland, Buffalo, and then the Colts. Indy is interesting because they still, I guess they're up to an over 50% chance. to make it in there. The Texans, again, I always use the New York Times model. The Texans still could definitely make some noise and make something there.

The other teams that are still fighting. Pittsburgh, Cincinnati's chances took a big hit. Some results, obviously, still to be played on Christmas Day. To me, it's the Texans. just in terms of who could be interesting if they do squeak into the playoffs and also just who could make some noise in the last couple of weeks.

Obviously, that has a lot to do with Stroud's availability, but they, to me, are the team that could maybe put something together. How are you feeling about Pittsburgh these days because they would be the other one? I'm not feeling anything about them. I'm not thinking about them.

I don't want to see them play football again. I watched the game on Saturday. It was another great performance by Mike Tomlin. He puts out another fire with George Pickens, but I don't need to see that in the playoffs. Let me put something on your radar, though. As things currently stand, and if the Browns, I think the Browns have the Bengals

and then one other team that's the Jets at home. So if they win those games, we are almost a lock for Kansas City Buffalo in the wild card round. I'm not ready for Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes on Wild Card weekend. I'm sorry. Like, that's too good of them, that. We can't lose one of them that early.

And like Joe Flacco into divisional weekend. Okay. We can let Joe Flacco into divisional weekend. I have to be honest with you. Just like let this into your heart. It's just what's happening. He won a Super Bowl. That was enough.

Isn't that enough? Apparently not. He didn't ask for this. It was just ordained. Nobody asked for. That's the problem. Andrew Barry asked for it. Did you see that video of Andrew Barry?

No. I don't remember, you know, they scored so many touchdowns. I don't remember which one it was. But the Brown scored, and Andrew Barry is in, up in the box, just like gleefully cackling. And like, that guy hasn't looked happy in public a lot recently. And it was almost like jarring. But it was nice to see that expression of joy. But he was like clapping his hands and just laughing.

It really was something. So I think that's who asked for this. That's what Joe Flacco does. He brings joy to everyone at the holiday season. He's Santa Claus. That's right. He's also 2,000 years old. All right.

I don't know how to make any more sense of the playoff picture other than to say that I'm glad that Joe Flacko is a part of it, and I agree with you. It would be sad to be sad to be forced to lose one of Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen that quickly. Any final thoughts before we get out of here and hopefully enjoy a lovely holiday? I've got nothing. I've got nothing. I just want chaos. That's all I'm rooting for.

Chaos. I think you're going to get it. I think you were going to get quite a bit of chaos. I think we all are. This has been dual threat. We will be back next week. We will be off between the Christmas and New Year's holidays this week, but Sheel and Ben will have you covered on Extra Point Taken on Tuesday.

Their deep dive into all of the week's 16 games, thank you to Kiargivens and Eduardo Ocampo for their work on socials. And to Eduardo Ocampo, again, for producing this episode with additional production supervision by Arjuna Raquel and Connor Nevin. Must be 21 plus and present in select states. Vandal is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC,

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