The Ringer NFL Show - Week 2 NFL Picks, Props, and Predictions! | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: September 15, 2023

Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak are back and breaking down Week 2’s most intriguing matchups and lines to watch. Can the Seahawks right the ship against the NFL darling Detroit Lions? Which Pro Bowl QB could end up saving the Jets season? Plus, Monday Morning Headlines! The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak Producer: Cliff Augustin Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Social: Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey everyone, this is Craig Horlebeck from the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. Join me, Danny Hifitz and Danny Kelly every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday to help you win your draft, win your league, and most importantly, avoid that last place punishment. Follow the Ringer Fantasy Football Show on Spotify. Welcome to Extra Pointeak and Shield Kapite here, joined by Ben Solac. It's the Friday show where we talk about what we're watching this weekend, make some picks that are going to go wrong at some point. We're too bad in week one there, uh, Solek, we did pretty well in week one. and we'll make some predictions and go from there. Now, so like I just saw you like eight hours ago. Now I'm seeing you again.

What have you done in the meantime since we recorded the Ringer's Philly special Thursday night postgame pod? I went to bed, woke up, I made some coffee, filled the bird feeder, tried to log on for this pod, had technical difficulties, just did some more note-taking, did some more researching, found a cool nugget or two. So we go, we love those. And now I'm back, and I'm on my second cup of coffee. I will say pod rescheduling affecting my coffee drinking schedule is not as that's bad. I've got to plan the coffee around the pod and when the pod moves, now we're in jeopardy. That's right.

You have to be max caffeination for the podcast. So you look fresh. You look like you got some rest. You're doing well. All right. Week two. Here's how we started. For those of you who didn't listen to the first edition of the Friday show last week,

we're going to go over things to watch and then we'll have our competition with some of the bets that were. making via this podcast. So let's start out with the headliner. So like, what are you watching? What do you have your eyes on this week as we head into week two in the NFL? Yeah. So the most interesting game to me this week is Seahawks Lions. Really? Yeah. I'm shocked. Why? I thought they were going. I thought you were definitely going Patriots Dolphids with what you're watching. Okay. Well, so, you know, a little behind the curtain here, a little peek yesterday. She'll ask me, he goes, hey, so like, we're like, we're, we're

quick, just before we log off, are you doing Dolphins Patriots for your headliner? And I was like, Sheel, all we ever do is go into these podcasts blind. That is the, that is the cardinal rule. I asked before week one, new show, second show of the week. I was like, should we go on blind or should we compare this one or should we compare it? And she was like, we never compare it. We always going blind. And then one week later was asking me to take a peek of my homework. Listen, it was one a.m. and I'm an old man. I can't be held responsible. All right, go ahead. Lion Seahawks. I am absolutely very interested in what is it's called Dolphins Patriots. But Lions Seahawks is very interesting to me because you have the Lions coming off such a big emotional win, such a huge performance against the Chiefs on the road, Super Bowl champion, prime time, we win it, we're a legitimate team.

And then you have the Seattle Seahawks who, okay, you know, Ben and Sheel are picking us to win the division. We're feeling ourselves a little bit coming off a nice surprise season last year. and then just absolutely face plant against the Rams. And then you go and you look and like the Seahawks were better in terms of offensive EPA per drive than the Lions were, right? Like these are two teams where I feel like the Seahawks were 13th and the Alliance were 15th. The Lions performance, you got to remember all the way back to Thursday,

it's been a while now. But the Alliance performance against the Chiefs, I thought was far from comprehensive, right? Was far from emphatic. And then the Seahawks performance against the Rams on watching it back, I mean, Matthew Stafford was just absolutely in his business. bag, especially on third down. They just lost to a very good quarterback, and it spiraled because of their injuries.

But now here we are. The Seahawks are 0-1-1, and I think they're a little bit better than that scorebug indicated, and the lines are 1 in O, and I think they're probably still a little bit worse than that scorebug indicated. But you and I know the reality of things. Owen 2 is a death knell in the NFL. A yearly reminders, we approach week 2, 10% of teams, one out of every 10 teams that starts O&2 makes the playoffs.

That's from stat had data over the course of decades, right? If you start O&2, your season's not over, but you're in such a hole that it really takes quite a bit to dig your way out. No, hold on. There's one caveat here that, you know, I have the nerd card, so I need to play it here. You have the hipster card. The nerds remind everybody, and they'll do it after this weekend, this year, that it's not really starting out O&2. It's kind of like if you lose back-to-back games at any point in the season, your odds of making the playoffs go down significantly. So that's what the nerd will tell you.

I just needed to get that in there as the caveat. Because we got a lot of nerds who listen to this show. You know, it's not just all hipsters. Other other nerd shout out that I had in my bag and I was worried you were preempting me is that obviously a lot of that O and two data came in a 16 playoff structure. We're now in a 17 per conference playoff structure. So there also is an easier window. But in general, I think that if you ask the average fan like, hey, you started out O&2,

can you still make the playoffs? Most fans are like, heck yeah. It's kind of like, dude, it's tough. It's an uphill climb. Yeah. Seahawks injury updates. Tackle Charles Cross, the star left tackle, young left tackle, was not placed on injured reserve.

He is, however, not practicing with a toe injury. They have signed Jason Peters in free agency, which it's not good when you're signing Jason Peters and free agency. That is a bad place to be. Jason Peter's great player. Honestly, I was a positive he'd retired. I didn't even know he was still doing the thing. I don't know why he's still doing the thing.

Because he's team CTC like I am. Cash them checks. If someone's going to go pay you to play a little football, go play a little football. go play a little football. You can't be doing this in 10 years. Maximize it. People will pay you to endorse their products and hop on podcasts. There's other ways to pass this check.

We'll pay you to podcast on extra point taken, 100%. I'm saying that without getting any approval. Right tackle Abe Lucas. He actually was placed on injured reserves. He's out for four games. So they expect to not have starting tackles in this game. Boy, Amafi did not participate on Thursday practice. He's one of their edge rushes as well.

So they're banged up. They're hoping to get Devon Witherspoon back. this game though. And they desperately need that, right? I think three equal and struggled a little bit in week one. They gave up over 100 receiving yards each to 2-2-at-well and Pook and Nakua, which, man, you can't be giving up 100 receiving yards each to 2-2 at well

and Pooka-Kua. That's not how it goes. And so it's a huge game for the Seahawks and it's a bit of a heat-check game for the Lions playing a team that was a post-season team again last season, playing a team that I still expect to be a solid team this year. The Lions can beat the Chiefs on the road and then beat the Seahawks at home, even if it doesn't look

perfect. We kind of, I think we talked about this with the Eagles and Philly special last night, where it's like, hey, like, every team has stuff to clean up after two weeks. But if you escape 2 and O and you're winning against some good opponents, like, you can't ask for much more. And so to me, this is a really, really important, interesting game. I'm not yet entirely sure how to calibrate to the Lions. I'm not yet entirely sure to calibrate to the Seahawks. This game's going to help me out. Yeah, it is going to be a good one. It's one in my picks column on the ringer. I probably had, I had just had a really hard time because I'm looking at, I'm going, We talked about it on, I think, the Monday show that how many quarterbacks without their starting offensive tackles are going to be able to operate at a high level. Not many. I don't think Gino Smith is one of those unless those backups come in and play really well. Now, he still has the wide receivers. Your point's a good one. I'm glad because we forget that Thursday night game feels like it was about seven years ago. And I'm just looking at it here. Like the success rate of the Lions offense in that game against the Chiefs and the Seahawks in that game that they lost to the ramps is all.

almost identical offensively. So if you're just looking at it on a snap-to-snap basis, like you mentioned, EPA per drive, offensively, they had very similar performances in week one. So now we're spinning it forward. I thought both these offenses were going to be really good coming into the season. The Lions, I'm pretty much still there.

The Seahawks, I'm more worried because they do have those injuries. So yeah, five and a half. It's four and a half now. I think it opened at five and a half. Was a little too big for me. I'm with you. So I actually took the Seahawks plus four and a half in this game. I don't feel like amazing about it, but I think you're right.

We'll learn a little bit more about both these teams as we say, hey, is there a sleeper in the NFC? Historically, teams that come off of double-digit losses in week one, that's the Seahawks, the bears and the giants, I want to say, are, I think there's one more team that I'm not remembering, but I know those. Bengals, thank you. Those teams historically perform quite well against the spread in week two, because there's just a natural big public overreaction. I agree that five-and-half line was too big.

I bought the five and a half line early in the week. Four and a half I think is more appropriate, especially Lions home opener. But I guess Seahawks win would not surprise me. It's still a good football team that's just got to kind of steady the ship a little bit. Yeah, no doubt. That'll be, it feels like the Seahawks, I'm probably overreacting, but it feels like the Seahawks have a lot on the line already in week two. To your point, some teams can come back from O&2. I don't know that they're going to be a team that you feel great about coming back from O&2.

All right. Should I take the low-hanging fruit or should I zag here? because I did think you were going to talk Dolphins Patriots. So I was like, you know, I'll have another one in my pocket here. So I don't know. You want to give me any guidance? Which one's the low-hanging fruit?

The Dolph-I think, I'll go, let's do Dolphins Patriots. I think this is a great game. This is a fun game. You did a little, get, what will give the little play sheet, plug here for our listeners. Did the play sheet on Tua's performance in week one.

Best game I've seen Tua play. I think, too, I'm a, I'm a fan now. This is, I would like to see. see a good performance against the Patriots before I get fully over my skis, but holy smokes, man, filming against the charges was great. And people can watch that video how? I mean, come on. You've really got to sell it here, self-promotive that. It's on the ringer, well, I don't worry about it, because it's on the ringer YouTube, obviously, but starting this upcoming week, week two, the play sheet will go directly to your Spotify feeds on the app.

And so if you're a, if you're a listener on like Apple Podcasts or some other inferior podcast listening app, thank you Spotify, my employer, then you should go to, uh, uh, the the YouTube and you should watch it there. But if you listen on Spotify, then the show will come directly to your feed and it'll be a video pod in your Spotify app. So on this feed you. Yeah, exactly. So if you're driving, you can only listen. Don't watch. That's bad. So hold on to wait for it, but then you can watch it on YouTube or on the Spotify app. When you're, when you're doing, you know, you're in bed, you're doing a little doom scrolling. You're like, I shouldn't be doing this. I feel guilty. What am I doing? Just read a book. Go to bed. You know what? Just go, just go watch

the play sheet. That'll make you feel good. Ben is a positive energetic guy. I'm talking to our audience. Yeah, I'm talking to our audience. I don't do that. I'm a grown-up. You know, I've thrown all those habits out the trash, not all of them, some of them. I'm a grown-up is a very interesting, you know, because you know my behaviors and you know my tendencies.

A very interesting way of framing that there. So Ben talked about the Dolphins offense. Everybody loved the Dolphins offense, and rightfully so. How could you not love what you saw from the Dolphins offense in week one? Tua played great. Mike McDaniel was amazing. Tyree Kill looked like the best pass-catching weapon in the NFL. Everything worked.

They went up and down the field, explosive plays, plays of 10-plus yards. You saw it all. Now, what are you going to do for an encore against a defense that looked really good? I thought in week one, the Patriots played well against the Eagles. Some of their rookies. I'm not letting the hipsters take Keon White, I decided, by the way, because I thought he was phenomenal in this game. and I know the hipsters are going to try to claim him

as it's like under the radar guy who would, no, you didn't discover him. He's mainstream now. Keon White, he's so mad. The hipsters are just this little like shadowy, slender man, straw man. You just get to put yourself against us like, no, actually I figured out Keon White was good. All of us are just like, wow, good film.

That's nice. No one is so nefarious the way you build this out. I love it. I struck a nerve. All right. Keon White, Patriots, rookie, second round pick. really good in week one against the Eagles offensive tackles. I thought Christian Gonzalez, the corner first round pick. He looked apart in that game. So now we get this like we're going to get

one of two things. Either we're going to be saying after this game, holy cow, take the dolphin seriously. They're doing it. Mike McDaniel did have a plan B to a tool looks amazing. Look at what they just did to the Patriots or it's going to be a Bill Belichick love fest on Sunday night where, oh, whoa, whoa, slow down all that Dolphins love. Look at this game playing Belichick. came up with to slow down the dolphins and now put some respect on his name. They're one in one with a hard fought loss and they beat the dolphins in week two. So I think the narratives are going to be fun coming out of this game. Now, a few things to keep in mind. Terran Armstead was a limited practice participant on Thursday, I believe, so we'll see if the dolphins left tackle, if he

comes back in this game or not. I was looking Ben last year at Tua's performance against the Patriots. Now it was week one, but he went 23 for 33, 270 yards, and a touchdown was sacked three times. Then I was looking at all right, let's look at this Mike McDaniel Belichick matchup. You know, they've obviously played two times last year. Tua had the fourth best success rate of any quarterback against the Patriots last season.

And guess who was fifth? Teddy Bridgewater in that week 17th game before he got injured. It was the only good Teddy game of the whole season with the Dolphine. Yeah. It was unreal. Very strange. So, you know, McDaniel did fine.

McDaniel was not shook by Belichick and going up against this very good Patriots defense last year. So we'll see what I'm kind of leaning dolphins here. I sort of think they're going to keep it rolling. I watched that Vikings Eagles Thursday night game and go, okay, maybe I shouldn't have been as encouraged by the Patriots defense. Because look at what the Vikings just did to the Eagles passing offense. Now, up front, the Patriots rush defense. They're big boys. They absolutely did better against the Eagles offensive line than the Vikings did.

So that's going to be something to obviously watch. Can they pressure Tua? Can they just absolutely dominate the run? But man, it's hard to watch that Dolphins offense from week one and think like any defense is just going to completely shut them down here. Even though we have some evidence of that from, you know, the second half of last season. Where are you with this game? Yeah, I do think that like I'm, I would need to be like 90% positive

that this offense is good enough to be any coordinator. including Bill Belichick to say it. And right now I'm like 87. I'm so close to being like, I don't care about Belichick. There's nothing you can do about this. Dolphins minus three. Dolphins minus 90.

Like, here we go, baby. We're living. I'm really close to that. I can't, it's week two. If we were like a few more weeks in, I'd feel, I'd feel okay with it. The thing is like, um, historically, uh,

Belichick's been good at like, okay, take away what your offense does best. And like, he's really been good at like doubling wide receiver ones. and okay, we'll eliminate Tyreek Hill, but this offense has shown that it's perfectly capable of just running through Jalen Waddle. Like Waddle is such an important player in this game, even if he doesn't end up producing super high, because just his existence precludes Belichick from deploying like the familiar

wide receiver one, you know, one double 85 game plans that we're used to him seeing. Belichick historically, okay, really good at stopping these play action-based offenses. They don't need play action to work, right? To his numbers and as a non-play action pastor even last season, we're among the league's best. Like, it's the threat of play action, the ideal play action.

If you're going to be man heavy, they're going to beat you with motion. They try to be a zone team in the second game last season, and they shouldn't have the horses for it. Like, if you're going to put Joanne Bentley on the field, you can't really be a zone team and defend the middle of the field that reliably. If you do, it's like on the heroic back of Kyle Dugger and Adrian Phillips.

You can even argue like the Marte Mapu pick is a big part of like the philosophy of like, all right, we have to beat this team there in our division. There's just so much. They put so much. on you and you can be perfect too and then Tua will just be perfect and Tyreek will be perfect and it won't matter. So I think the Dolphins offense is powerful enough to run away with this game. I'm just like one or two confidence points below being able to fully say it with my chest.

So it's a very interesting game. I do think it's going to be dolphins by a lot of points. Patri's trying to throw the way back into it and they can't, but I'm happy to wait and see on it. Okay. Yeah, I think I'm with you there. I'm not saying it with full confidence. There's no outcome that would surprise me, but I do like the Dolphins minus three in that game. on the road in New England. All right. Monday morning storyline is the next category.

Ben, what do you have? What are we going to be talking about? What's the big narrative? What are the talking head shows leading with Monday morning? What do you got? Yeah. So my week one headline was $275 million man. I said Burrow is going to dominate these browns.

He's going to throw the ball over the yard. And he's going to make, he's making more money than Deshawn. And it's going to be a huge win for the Bengals. My week two headline, $275 million man? We just run the same copy back. Put a question mark on the end of that. Get the inflection going up. I was not a good Burrough performance in week one.

The weather was a big part of that. Burroughs first four drives, he's not wearing a glove. After the fifth drive, he's got a glove on the throwing hand. There's rain. He's had a couple throw slip out of his hands. He's got smaller hands. There's always a concern. The Brown's pass rush dominant entering the game, right?

They just won for four quarters. I think that like, when you, when you're game planning that game, you're like, all right, the Browns pass, which might be good, but like they won't like, you know, we can't like act like they're going to like end our entire game plan. And then pretty quickly they started to do so. But the thing that stood out to me was that Burrow, I do not believe is back from that cap injury. He did not scramble once in this game. No scrambles past the line of scrimmage.

Seventh lowest time to throw of his career. And critically, they were in shotgun on 96% of their dropbacks. 90% of their plays, excuse me, the highest number of Burroughs career. They didn't want him dropping back from under center. Like, it's just more steps. It's just more on your foot. And you saw every time he was flushed from the pocket, the first option he found to throw the football, even if it was like a throwaway throw at somebody's feet, he would do so.

He was just hucking up 50, 50 balls to T. Higgins early in the down. Like, he was just not comfortable on his feet. I don't think Burrough is 100% back from that injury. He does not appear to be so. After the game, he was asked about it. It was like, how did it feel? And he was like, it feels good enough. And then that was it.

And like, that was a good way to answer it. Like, he got to pivot. That's the classic line. Yeah, I don't want to make an excuse, but I'm not going to lie either. Yeah, it feels, it feels good enough. And then he did a good job pivoting to like, you know, we had ways to win. Like, we should have won. Like, there was rain.

There was my injury. Like, whatever. Kind of like, lump it into like, oh, there's a lot of things that went wrong today. But I think clearly it's affecting him. He now gets a Baltimore Ravens defense that, with whom he struggled last season. Before this Brown's game, which was the worst game of, the last two seasons, 22 plus now, the previous worst two games last season were two games against the Ravens, the two games that he played in the regular season. He was better against

them in the wildcard ground, but was still below average in terms of success rate. The chemistry for the Ravens, the recipe is an extremely low blitz rate. They don't send extra guys. They send them from depth though. They'll send a linebacker, send a defense to back, drop the defensive end. And you force Bro to hold on the ball for a second, to think for a second. You leave seven coverage though and you try to take away some of those deeper patterns. I was impressed with what I saw Ravens defense in week one. I thought Justin Matibuki defensive tackle is taking a step. I thought Odafei Owe looked like the guy they kind of draft him to be in the first round off the edge. I think they're going to have a good defensive performance against Burrow, who I don't think is

going to suddenly go from being 80, 85 percent to 100 percent. And accordingly, I would not be surprised if you get another poor Bengals performance a week two, another poor Burrow performance. And then that puts the potential of an O and two start for the Bengals. Like we just said a bad place to begin, especially in a tough division and some questions about like, hey, like, why are we playing Burrow right now if he clearly can't execute the offense the way that he usually does. And so for me, headline on the Bengals, if they struggle again, two consecutive games are really bad offensive production, I think it's going to start to ask them, okay, why is it happening? What's going on? So you're going against the trend that you mentioned earlier about the team

getting blown out in week one, bouncing back in week two in the Bengals instance? So I don't have any bets on Ravens spread itself. I do, I am on the under. I'm on the under at under 46.5. I think that number is remarkably high. I'm very surprised. It opened there and I thought it was going to drop. It hasn't.

And so I'm on the under. I'm thinking about for my long shot of the week getting a little bit of a Ravens exposure. We'll get there when we get there. But I like, you know, maybe it was mostly the rain. Maybe his calf is like 90, 95%. And I was just kind of, you know, making a narrative that worked in my mind. And so not a ton of Ravens exposure. Ravens also like, no J.K. Dobbins, no, Marcus Williams, no Ronnie Stanley, no Tyler Linderbaum.

Like, I'm not willing to get too far on Ravens camp at this point. But it's a, I think it's a bad borough spot for sure. Yeah, you're right about, I mean, the Ravens gave him issues last year. Even in that playoff game, I think they didn't have a completion of 20 plus yards. In that game, he's averaged as 5.9 yards per attempt against those Mike McDonald defenses with the Ravens. I actually do like the Bengals to bounce back here. I wouldn't be shocked. And I actually feel like if they go O-and-two, I'm not going to panic with the Bengals. I'm going to be like, okay, they have shown an ability to problem. Yeah, over the last two years. And I just believe in Burrow. Like, even if he's not 100%, he'll figure out a way to adjust there. And the Ravens might have had the most costly win of other than the Jets, sorry, non-Jets variety of week one, where you mentioned it.

I mean, look at this injury report going into Friday. Marlon Humphrey did not participate. You know, Linderbaum did not participate. Stanley did not participate. Marcus Williams is out. I mean, those are like four of probably their 10 most important players that they might be without in that game, including two members of the secondary in Humphrey and Williams,

your two veteran guys, two members of your offensive line. Like, if you ask coaches and GMs, like other than quarterback, what are the two areas where you don't want your depth to be tested? It's generally O-line. secondary. Like it's just, you know, the demand is greater than the supply in those two areas. We'll see if Mark Andrews comes back. He was a limited participant in Thursday's practice. But I like the Bengals here to bounce back. I'm with you. I think it could be sort of an ugly, close, tight, weird, AFC North game. It wouldn't shock me if they lost. But I kind of trust

him in this spot. So we'll see what happens there. Let's take a break. We'll come back. I'll give you my Monday morning one in a second. Get ready for the NFL season with incredible offers from Fandul, America's number one sportsbook. Right now, new customers can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets guaranteed. Plus, all customers who bet $5 will get $100 off NFL Sunday ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV. My favorite NFL bets for week, and we're going to talk about these later on the show. That's the Giants minus four and a half against the Cardinals, the Broncos minus three and a half against the commanders, and then the Packers plus one and a half against the Falcons.

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YouTube TV base plan required to watch YouTube TV. Redemption requires a Google account and current form of payment. Commercial use excluded. All right. We are back on extra point taken. My Monday morning storyline. Sala won't commit to Zach Wilson as starter going forward. Oh, wow.

Just the one week turnaround? Jets are nine and a half point underdogs going to Dallas. I think Zach Wilson's going to struggle against what I think is the best defense in the NFL. That's not really going out on a limb there. I think the rest of the team is going to play well. I think defensively, the Jets are going to, the Jets defense is going to kind of keep them in this game. We mentioned it. Breast Hall, Garrett Wilson, these guys are very good players.

I think Sala gets asked about it in the post-game press conference, and he's kind of distraught and he fumbles around a little bit and he doesn't give that vote of confidence. And we find out, you know what, next week, I mean, they're already. probably making calls, but they kind of are like, we cannot keep doing this. With looking in that locker room, looking at the other players, we cannot just roll with Zach Wilson. Now, one thing that popped up, Ben, during Thursday night football, you know, just like you're going around the social media, the internets.

I mean, Kirk Cousins, Vikings are 0 and 2 here. Oh! Kirk Cousins is a free agent at the end of the season. Quessi Adolfo Mensa has mentioned. and a competitive rebuild here. I don't think Cousins is going to be back on that team in 2024. So let's do a little exercise. Joe Douglas calls Cressy and says, hello, my friend.

You know what? I'm not even going to mess around. I'm not even going to disrespect you with a bad offer. Our 2024 first round pick for Kirk Cousins. We need a good quarterback in here. My job's on the line. We're a competitive team. I got to get someone in here quickly.

What do you say? What do you say? And what does Quessie say? Okay. So when the Colts sent Ryan, when the Falcons sent Ryan to the Colts, it was for a third round pick. Matt Ryan was how old?

He was 36, 37. Yeah. And what? Like, they had to eat, like, it was 19, all right, so he had 19 base salary when the Colts got on.

I can't remember. Like, the Falcons had to eat a ton. The Falcons had to eat like 40 or something. Yeah, listen, I'm going to assume that that stuff can be worked out. I know like Cousins is the restructure. So Cousins, cousins,

Couss is 35. He would be a 10 million hit to the Jets. They would have to eat dead cap of, yeah, like over 40. First, I'm doing a heartbeat if I'm Quessie. A heartbeat if I'm quested. Okay, see, I didn't know which way I was going to have to go here. Like,

I didn't know if I was going to have to increase it or maybe decrease it. All right, then let's do this. I think the Ryan, if the Ryan deal operates as a decent proxy and it went from the Colts third to the Jets 24 first, yeah, man. Absolutely. Okay.

I mean, you have desperate teams. Remember the old Sam Bradford trade back in the day? The team gets desperate. That's when you feast. All right, so you'll do it for first. All right, so I'm Joe Douglas. I call a Questie and I say, well, see, they don't have their second round pick. Let's say he gives him the equivalent of what would be a second round pick, but they obviously don't have their second.

But it's conditional. And so if Kurt Cousins starts at least 10 games and the Jets make the playoffs, then it moves up to a first. What are you saying to that question? No, we ain't doing conditions in C. He's a big Joe. Not in no conditions. So a two is too low. You need a one.

You're saying you need a one. I mean, now that I know a one was on the table two minutes ago. You don't. You're questioning. This is the exercise. No, no, no, no, no, no. You can't reset a hypothetical on me. I mean, I think you're right.

Like, desperate teams. And I certainly, I would say, you don't, I don't want to play the conditions game in season. I've got you painting into a corner here. Every week that you don't make this trade, you're watching Zach Wilson throw footballs. Send me the one. and you don't know, oh, little strings attached it

if I can yank it back. But you did that with Rogers, right? And that worked for you. That's why you still have that first round pick. Yeah, give me here.

It's mine now. Let's go. Yeah, I love this. I didn't think about this at all. I didn't see this last night. But absolutely. Kirk to the Jets.

Kirk, listen, Kirk's not good. Obviously, we all know that like Kirk's production. I wouldn't say not good. I think that's unfair. No,

that is unfair. Kirk is not like, an elevator. Kirk is not like a top 10, like Matthew Stafford, like change a team. Like, Kirk's not that. Kirk, I, a Jets team with Kirk and quarterback, I'd be like, yeah, they can make a run the AFC. It's good enough. It's above the bar. They're a playoff team. They're making the playoffs. So if you're Joe Douglas, are you doing that? Are you just committed and you're like, dude, I'm doing anything right now? I would be desperate. I would be a horrible GM in his spot. It's a job security thing. But I think it is. But I think it is.

But I think it is also like, we can't throw this season away. We owe it to the guys in the locker room. We want it. It's also, I think it is a culture thing. You can't just like throw away this season. Like be competitive this season. You're probably going to regret it in the spring when the draft rolls around. And maybe you just made it to the divisional round.

But still, I would say, I think I would do it. It might be stupid. But if you're asking me, would I do it, I think I would do it. Yeah. No, that was my thing when we spoke about the injury on Extra Point Taken after Monday Night Football. if Zach Wilson's giving you C plus play, just make up a grade, the guys in the locker room don't have a good relationship with Zach. And so even if you're getting that from him,

if you're staying around 500, like every time there's a bad play, like Zach's not going to have social capital. He's not going to have trust and support to spend. It's just going to be a polarizing and locker room dividing situation. So absolutely. I think a move is necessary, period. And if Kirk is available, that's as good of a move as you're going to get in season, man. I'm fully on the Kirk causes of the Jets train. Me too. Just the disgusting thing I never thought I would say. Let's make it happen.

The horrible, horrible sentence, I'm there, though. I'm all over there. I want it to happen. So we need, I feel like maybe we need one more Vikings loss. Maybe they're like, not yet. But if they go 0 in 3, I mean, come on, you got to start looking towards the future there. So something to keep an eye on. Let's make that happen.

All right. We're getting to the betting portion. of the show. Now, for those who listened last week, you know that we said, hey, can someone come up with a spreadsheet? Because we've got this competition going on all season long. We're Solac and I are doing these three, four categories. We're doing prop of the week. We're doing long shot of the week. And we're doing, wait, do we have three categories? Locks of the week. I'm terrible. The most important one. I'm committed to confusing our audience on this. All right. Props of the week, long shot of the week, and locks of the week, which consists of three picks.

The point system is very simple. Locks of the week and prop of the week. You get one point for getting one of those right. Long shot of the week has to be plus 150 or higher. You get three points for getting that right. So you have a total of seven points you can earn every week. We're going to track this. We're going to come up with some bet.

Actually, yeah, make some suggestions for what we should have on the line here during this competition. competition. Let's put that out to the expats. What should we have to do the loser of this thing? But last week, I asked, hey, can someone keep track of this? You know, I'd like handing off work. I'll be honest. So can come up, someone come up with a nice spreadsheet, keep track of this. We'll share it with the audience. And that way we'll keep track all season long. Listen, expats, you answered the bell. Our inboxes were just filling up with volunteers. So thank you, sincerely to everyone who volunteered and said, hey, I'll do it. I listen to the show. And you're given us, you're showing us your work. You're trying to impress us by going above and beyond. I loved

it. I thought it was a great showing by you guys. Luckily, So, Solac is the one who volunteered to pick the winner. So if you didn't get it and you're mad, be mad at Solac. Don't be mad at me. Well, firstly, everybody, we're recording on Friday. I'm emailing everybody on Friday telling them you have to listen to the show in order to know if you won. Oh my God. Shield taught me this now. This is a Shield Kapati special. Make sure you listen. I thought you were going to say you're just going to email them to say thank you for I'm the main reason why emailing them is to say thank you. We had over 30 people reach out, which is extremely cool.

So many good spreadsheets. The podium very quickly. Mike Rockall, who is a Irish listener, had a beautiful one. Frazier Kelly or Kelly Frazier. I don't know if I think it's Frazier Kelly. He's from Scotland. I feel like Fraser could be a first name in Scotland, right? Anyway, wonderful Scottish listener.

He made a beautiful one. Jonathan Byrne, who's been a long-time listener, a great. one and then Jordan Petrie, who's a retired math teacher, current math teacher from Canada. He was my runner up. Absolutely gorgeous from Canada. I loved it. But, uh, uh, Shiel, you were right when you sent over to me the spreadsheet made by Luke Lahan, who I emailed Luke to ask for his pre-the pronunciation of his name. And he just like, re-spelled his name. So downgraded points for pronunciation. You got to like put, you got to put accents on syllables and stuff. I'm still making this up. I might be wrong. Anyway, Luke Lahan.

who sent it over and Sheel highlighted it as his favorite one. Beautiful spreadsheet. I will say, got the logo in there on the opening page, got the rules written down. So that way, Sheel can read off the rules and not be confused. Got a nice raw results page, got a running results page. We had a couple other listeners. We had one listener to a grouch percentage. They were going to track the number of unders that we did and how poorly we did on those.

I thought that was funny. But anyway, so Luke, an absolute winner. If anybody else wants to keep updating their spreadsheets, I love these. They're all beautiful. But last week, Sheel, you took the win. You had five points on the day. I had three points on the day. You got those five points because you won your long shot of the week.

Rams Money Line. Congratulations to you on that one. We were both two and three on our locks. I missed on the Broncos covering. Yeah, we both got two and one. Excuse me. Yes, two and one. I missed on the Broncos covering.

You missed on the Steelers covering. And then you missed your prop under for passing yards for cousins, but me, baby. Over on Calvin Ridley receiving ours, we got there in the first half. We love a first half cash. And so five points for Sheel, three points for me. We are both up on the year so far. Now, four and two for us combined picks against the spread. That's pretty good.

What percentage do you think we can get as a combo? Because we are going against each other, but let's add a little team aspect to it. Like, you know, what do you think we can get? What's a professional gambler gets what, 55, 54, 57? If you clear, if you clear 55%, you're profitable. If we are exclusively talking sides, you know, because that's all. we're doing. We're not doing totalers or anything. You're at 56, 57% you're doing well. 58% you start bragging about it online, right? Okay. I, for me, like, sideswise,

if I'm clear 55% I'm happy, I do a lot more of my damage in terms of, of props and, and player-specific betting. But I think, like, you are pretty consistently over 55% with your against spread pick. So, so long as I don't anchor us down too much, I think, like, 56, 57 is, is, actionable. All right. Let's try to get 57% of our combined picks against the spread correct. Make some good money for the people. Now, if we're on opposite sides, I don't know how that works.

I guess we're going to take one win and one loss. Or maybe we'll exclude them. Yeah. We'll exclude those if we're on opposite sides. We'll do all the other ones. So sorry, Luke, now you've got to do some extra work and track that. But, oh, this is a beautiful spreadsheet. I can't wait to share this with our audience.

This is fantastic. All right. So let's get two-hour picks for week two in the NFL. So like you mentioned it, you nailed your prop last week. What do you have as your prop of the week? By the way, this has to be minus 1.30 or better. So you can't go with, you know, something with terrible odds. That's not helping anyone. What do you got? Yeah, I like the under on Anthony Richardson's passing yards. Under 191.5 this week against the Houston Texans. I was on the Anthony Richardson under for passing yards personally in the game last week. He went over. 42-yard catch and run on a screen from Michael Pittman really didn't help me. garbage time drive down the field. Dink and dunk really didn't help me. But Richardson, he looked quite functional here. I was very impressed with Richardson's debut.

I wrote about it for the ringer. That Jaguar's defense, I thought, was really worried about him throwing the ball deep. They played a lot of blanket coverage, intermediate and deep and let him check down. He was willing to take that. He took it in rhythm and comfortably. So this Texans defense is a little more aggressive. They're going to get after you a little bit more. I thought D'emiko Ryan's debut with the Texans was one of the more encouraging things.

in terms of just like overall feeling expectation, like win loss, whatever, like data. This defense very clearly has bought into his approach. They're playing fast. They're playing physical. They're blitzing. I thought the pass-wrest you do of John Grenard and rookie top five pick Will Anderson, who looked lights out. I mean, just exactly what you bought was really impressive.

Texans were 14th in week one in terms of team pressure rate. So above average over the league. I think they're going to be able to pressure Richardson. And then I think, okay, the Jags kind of thought he's going to launch the ball deep a bunch. He threw underneath. the Texas are going to play stickier and they're going to play more aggressive underneath. They're going to be able to play better in zones. That's Demico Ryan's personality.

That's their coverage personality. And they have a guy in Derek Stingley who's going to be able to match up with Michael Pitman really effectively. And the Colts really don't have a ton in terms of pass catchers outside of Pittman. I thought rookie Josh Downs looked good, but like, you know, you're still getting off the ground. I also think this is going to remain a close game. And so it's not like Richardson's going to be throwing the ball a lot trying to get them back into it. I think under 191 and a half for Richardson. it's just it's not a passing offense that has enough talent to necessitate a number getting into the 200s.

And I think Richardson's, that team is going to remain run heavy over the course of the season. I like the under. I like that one. That's a good one. I agree. I was also encouraged by, I was, you know, frankly surprised that he looked as in control and kind of just not because I don't like him. Just because, again, we've said it over 21 years old, 13 college starts to come into the NFL and kind of look the part right there in week one. that was impressive, but I'm with you. The Texans defense, I think, is definitely better than the

Jaguars defense game script there, I think is going to work in your favor. So that's a good one. I'm also taking an under. This might be a sucker bet. I don't know. Grouchy pod. But Zach Wilson under, and it's a low number, 174.5 passing yards. He was under that number five times and nine starts last season. Now he has Nathaniel Hackett as his offensive coordinator. And he's going against what I think is the best defense in the NFL in the Cowboys. So, listen, there's a chance that Brees Hall breaks the screen or Garrett Wilson does something wild or that he throws up a Hail Mary or that there's garbage time here and he's racking up stats.

That's all in play. I could see myself losing that one there. But if you're just talking about if you think this Jets defense can keep them in the game, then I think that takes some of those things out of play. So I think Zach Wilson is going to struggle in this game. Again, I'm not going out on a limb there. and I like him under 174.5. All right, long shot of the week.

This is like the money ball for our competition. You get three points for getting this bad boy. I picked the Rams money line last week. This has to be plus 150 or better. Benny Souls, what did you have last week for this? You had... I had Gino Smith to throw for 275 passing yards, and he threw for about 104.

So we were close. We almost had it. This week, I'm big on the journey. Giants, I love this spot for the Giants. Just an absolute slot ball game against the Cowboys. You have a blocked field goal return for a touchdown and you come back and you throw an interception in the red zone and in your own red zone and the Cowboys. The snowball just goes.

You can't throw your way back into this game. Not of the Giants are built. The weather is terrible. So they lose by 40, but they really like, again, like the thing snowballed. The Cowboys had a pressure rate of over 60%. That is not happening. The Cardinals do not have the horses for that. even with a defense coordinator,

a defensive philosophy, John Gannon and Nick Rallis, where they're just not even going to like blitz that much anyway. I think that the Giants are in such a nice, good, clear bounce back spot. I have them in my locks of the week, but for the long shot of the week, Daniel Jones to score a touchdown is plus 185.

Books. Is that passing or rushing, or is that just rushing? That's just rushing. So a score of a touchdown is the player holding the ball in the end zone celebrating. Gotcha. Which, by the way,

Cowboys defense, to score a touchdown this week against Zach Wilson's like plus 380, which is like the lowest I've ever seen a defense or special teams price like in my life. But anyway, um, Daniel Jones is a rushing quarterback. Daniel Jones is one of the most run heavy quarterbacks in terms of, of, of how often he scrambles, how often he carries the football that we have in the league. And typically we see those guys, Gila Hertz, Justin Fields, get priced more around like 110. This is plus 185. Now, Daniel Jones does have a lower red zone rush rate than those guys, but he still is going to scramble and he's going to be used in the design running.

game as well. We're not be surprised if we get multiple Daniel Jones rushes while inside the 20. I think they're going to be able to score a lot of points because I don't think this Cardinals offense going to be able to move the ball on the defense. They're going to have a lot of possessions. Daniel Jones scored touchdown plus 185. Just another way to get some Giants exposure. I like it. That's a good one. I like the Giants in that spot quite a bit as well. All right, my long shot of the week. I dipped it. You know, you had the last week I was thinking, all right, I just have to pick a team like upset and then you, you know, open my eyes to no, no, you can do some stuff with player props for this. So I'm going, Josh Allen rushes for 50 plus yards plus

158. Love that. Now, now explain this to me per four Fandau. 50 plus, if he gets 50, do I win or no, or does it have to be more than 50? If he gets 50, you win. It's over 49 and a half. Gotcha. Okay. So I don't believe in this Raiders defense, you know, you look at it last week and say, what are you talking about? Shield, the Broncos only scored 16 points. The Broncos had six possessions in that entire game. That's like the lowest of any team tied for the lowest of any team in like the last 20 years. If you actually look at it on a per snat basis, a per drive basis, the Broncos offense was

pretty efficient in that game. So bills are coming off a disastrous Monday night football loss to the Jets where they give the game away. We talked about that on the Monday show. I think Allen is going to come back in this game and have a fantastic game. I think they're going to go up and down the field against this Raiders defense. and I think Josh Allen is going to pick up a lot of yards with his legs, probably more scrambles than designed runs,

but they'll mix in some of that as well. So 50 plus yards, Josh Allen rushing against the Raiders plus 158. All right. Love that. Next up is our nontense prediction. So we take a little break from the locks of the week. We'll finish the show with the locks of the week. But nontense prediction is just give me anything.

You could predict anything you want for something that's going to happen. this weekend in week two, what do you got? Cadarius Tony has 100 yards and two scores. Ooh, I like it. Why? Like, just absolutely. So firstly, like, he's not even getting snaps against the Lions and they get into the low red zone.

What's the first thing they do? Well, shovel option play to Cadarius Tony. Andrew Reed just, like, loves the idea of this guy with his movement skills in the red zone. Like, since they've acquired him since he's been healthy, they're just constantly trying to give him looks in scoring opportunities. He had an absolutely abysmal game last week against the Lions. It's like one of the worst games in terms of individual expected points added that a wide receiver has ever had.

Just scoring points for Detroit drops everywhere. It's a mess. But it's not like, you know, we've got, you know, Travis Kelsey and we've got Terry Kill. And we have like all these other receivers that we trust. And we're trying to get Candarious Tony going. But that didn't work so well, so we're going to chill out. It's not like they really have, like they're hoping to get Kelsey back for this game. I don't know if we've gotten a clear answer on whether or not that's happening yet.

I know he's been practicing. No, he's been limited. Yeah. I don't think they've said one way or the other as of this recording. So if we're in a spot where there's no Kelsey, they're playing against Jacksonville in Jacksonville, I think it's going to be a roughly neutral game, which means a high pass script game for the chiefs.

They're trying to score some points. You have to try to get Tony activated. They're going to attempt to do that. Like this is a guy they invest a legitimate picks in, and they've also seen it from him, right? They haven't seen it from Skymore. They've seen it from Tony. Like in the Super Bowl, they've had moments that they've had plays.

They're like, this guy's the guy. And so why not? But everybody's the lowest they've ever been on Cadarius Tony. he's going to get a huge catch and run, he's going to get a handoff reverse that goes for 30 yards and a score, it's going to be the Cadarius Tony redemption game. I'm rooting for this because fantasy owners,

like all fantasy Twitter, she's obsessed with Cadarius Tony and has no idea how to calibrate to him. Every time they're up on him, he's really bad. Every time they're down on him, he's really up, but I love that. So the fantasy owners to you are like the hipsters to me,

is that you want them to feel some pain, it sounds like. It's not that I want... But you are a fantasy owner, correct? or do you not do fantasy, you just gamble? I play fantasy because I get told to. And it's really hard to do this job. And then to have like people be like,

you should join the fantasy league and be like, no, I don't want to. Because that implies like I just don't want to do it with you. Because I'm just going to football. I have no issue saying no. I do two leagues. But yeah. So I've got like I have a couple leagues that I have to actually move the roster around.

I have a lot of best ball leagues, which are nice because you just draft. Yeah. I need to get those. That's what I want. The draft is fun. I want to draft and then not worry about it. Call me in December.

Here's what tickles me about the fantasy community. Because I interface with the fantasy community a lot in the summer because I just do a lot of like season long fantasy, best ball, and it's a gambling perspective. There are players and roles and world that like I, as somebody who I think like covers the NFL pretty comprehensively, just completely and totally have no interest in that the fantasy community is always like stunned by. And we won it with Sky Moore.

Like Skymore got no run And the entire fantasy community was like, this is unbelievable And I was like, I forgot Skymore was on the Chiefs Like, why did anybody think Skymore could do anything for this team? Like it's very clear they're out on him. Like I don't, it's just the different perspective

makes some things, some mountains into molehills, some molehills into mountains. That always makes me laugh. I always find that very funny. Like I saw the fantasy community last night for the Eagles game just be like, okay, D'Andre Swift clearly has the job locked down. I was like, absolutely no, he does not.

He was not the starter in week one. Like, that was, that was five days ago. Like, it's stuff like that. The perspectives are so different that makes me laugh. Anyway, Cadarious Tony's going off. All right. I think we need to add a segment to this show, Stolac attacks the fantasy community.

Because I was very entertained by that. You were riled up. I enjoyed that. So maybe we'll install that in future weeks. I like that one. It fits with Caderius Tony's career. It's like, all right, when everyone thinks he sucks, he does something awesome.

When everyone thinks he's awesome, he sucks. He's not on the field. He's on the field, whatever. So, yeah, I could see him bouncing back here. All right. My nonsense prediction, Arthur Smith bristles at a post-game question about whether he thought or is thinking about giving Taylor Hineke.

Community. This is also them. About giving Taylor Hineke a shot at quarterback. Yeah, no, this isn't a Pitts, Drake London thing, which everybody's part of it. He gets some question about, did you think about, you know, maybe going to Taylor Hineke there or, you know, are you thinking about giving Heineke a shot or taking a look? Is Desmond Ritter your starter? And he kind of is like, you know, he barks at the reporter a little bit.

Falcons last week had 29 passing yards through the first three quarters of that game against the Panthers. Now, that was enough in that game. You know what? It might be enough in this game against the Packers. If the Falcons win this game, I think they're going to run for like 250 yards and just kind of gashed that Packers defense and the Packers have some injuries on offense. but it might not be enough.

You know, we talked about it on Monday that Matt LaFleure skeined up some great stuff for Jordan Love. Last week, if he's able to do that again, you're talking about a closer game, you might be talking about a game where they have to give Desmond Ritter the football, which it did not look like Arthur Smith wanted to do

what was comfortable doing there in week one. So I might be a little early on this one. What do you people say? Never wrong, just early? Isn't that a thing? Never wrong, just early, buddy. Never wrong. Yes, sir.

So this might be that for me. Like, this could happen. Week 6, but I'm going to go with it happening here in week two. Yeah, I 100% thought, yeah, you were going, gets mad at a reporter for asking why Drake London didn't get involved. That's too easy. Yeah, that's too easy. He's just an angry man. He's just an angry surly dude who doesn't want to be doing press conferences.

Everybody reads so much into everything this guy says, but all he wants to do is coach football not talk to anybody. It's like, if your grandpa was up there, then why didn't you throw out Drake London? because we didn't. Like, that's just it. That's all it is. All right. I think that might have been a shot at me. I'm not sure.

Old Sirley, he just wants the podcast about football and not talk to anybody. Eh, might, might fit my description. All right, let's take one more break. We will come back

and we will do our locks of the week. All right. We are back on extra point taken. We've got our locks of the week. We both went two and one in week one. I'll admit, I'm not feeling as confident. in these. I felt good in week one. I don't feel great about these. But you know what? You have to pick

through. I said before I'm a volume shooter. I like to pick all the games and try to get over 500 there. I can't pick which ones I like more. It's like picking a restaurant. It's impossible to me. I just want someone else to do it for me. Ben, in like, in like week eight, I'm just going to send you my picks column and be like, no, or I'll have my daughters. Close your eyes. Point to point to the paper. Okay. I'm picking these. So there you go. All right. Who do you have for your first lock of the week? These are just picks against the spread. Yeah, so you brought up the Falcons. I was on Packers plus one and a half against the Bears.

I'm on Packers plus one and a half against the Falcons. I think this Packers team is good. Go Cheese has extra point taking team of the year, baby, go pack, go. The Falcons, I like, I liked them preseason. I still generally do like them. Took three turnovers to beat the Panthers. It's pretty clear that the passing offense is not near developed, right? It's not something they can rely on just yet.

I almost took the Ritter passing under instead of the Anthony Richardson in passing under. I didn't see that. Are there not unders available for every game and every quarterback or was I am I just dumb and couldn't find them?

So we record on Friday mornings most of the time, most things are up. There can be circumstances in which, because of injuries and an uncertainty the markets aren't posted

by Fandwell yet. The Ritter Under at other books is posted around like 180, which is an underspot in my opinion. Regardless, Packers plus one and a half,

I acknowledge the concerns about getting run all over by this this falcons offense. But I really do think like this Packers passing attack, even with the Christian Watson concerns the injury there. I think they're going to be able to put the Falcons in a bad game script. I don't think the Falcons call the way out of that. So I like Packers plus one and a half. Yeah, Christian Watson. They could be without Aaron Jones. They could be without Quay Walker. I think was in the concussion protocol as we talked here. So I think this line was actually when I wrote my column, the Packers were favored by one and a half. And now as we do this

podcast, they are underdogs by one and a half. So I do like the Packers side there, although that's not one of my picks. I've got the Denver Broncos minus three and a half at home against the Washington commanders. Again, Denver had six possessions last week. If you look at what they did there, they were fourth in EPA per drive, sixth in success rate. They weren't perfect. They really have no explosive element to their offense where it's really like, shoot, that Russell Wilson throwing those moonballs. I don't know if that really exists here with this team, but I think they can string together drives. They had 22 first downs on six possessions, which is pretty good. Now, their defense was not good in week one against the Raiders and Jimmy

G. I don't think this commander's offense is going to be as good as that Raiders offense can be when it's fully healthy. I was not impressed with Washington in week one. They were, they were down 1610 in the fourth quarter at home against the Arizona Cardinals. So I like the Broncos big here at home, get their first win, cover that three and a half. Also, Broncos minus three and a half is also one of mine. Oh, we have our first double up. All right. So Luke has to track this on the spreadsheet.

When we have the same side, is that good? Or is that like stay the heck away from that pick? So I need to see that on the spreadsheet. But yeah, like it was Broncos at home is a good look. And then last week they failed to cover. They were the one that I missed. That Raiders game, like you said, was just a game where if they're able to get off the field, generate one short field, generate one quick drive where they can start to, uh,

enact some tempo, they're going to be fine. But the Raiders are built to kind of run, run, short pass, long incremental drive on you. And that's how these Broncos are built under Sean Payton. And they kind of just slobber knockered it back and forth and the Raiders end up victorious, right? You think that they're going to be a little bit more successful doing that against the commander just because offensively, the commander's going to be a lot easier to knock off their stuff. I am worried about that commander's defensive line against this Broncos offensive line. Not enough, though. It's taking me off the three and a half.

That's also one of mine. You want my last one? Yeah, go ahead. I brought it up earlier. Giants minus four and a half. I love, love, love this giant spot. The Giants were due from regression from last season, but are still a team that has some teeth to them.

They're still like in the same way the Vikings are, right? Like due for regression, but the talent is still a talent. This is still like a team that's functional, a team that can win on any given Sunday, a team that can spoil and whatever. The Cardinals are not a team with talent, right? And they, you know, week one, they come out against the commanders,

nobody believes in us and they're plucky for a little bit. But you just, you watch the film, And they're just, there, there are mistakes along the offensive line. There's procedural penalties. There's, there's, uh, play calls that don't get incorrectly. Like, they are a bad operation because Josh Jobs is new to the team. That's not going away in one week. And then they really, really lack talent on the defensive side of the ball.

And that's where I think this Giants team just like, again, like is Sterling, not Sturling not Starrant, he's nice on the bench now, but like Paris Campbell, Darius Slayton, Darren Waller, Isaiah Hodg. Is this the best past catching core you've ever seen? No. Still good. Like, this is like a solid group. Good? I don't know if I would say good. I could name at least 15 that are better.

Yes. Okay. It's fine. You were picky on the adjectives today. I'm just saying. I would definitely would not describe them as good. But go ahead. It's fine. Offensive line, like Evan Neal's an issue. Brent Bredison, I think is a guy that you can pick on. But overall, is it okay. Is it okay. Is it okay. Is it okay. Is it okay. It's okay. I think a tier or two of talent above this Cardinals team and they're going to be looking for a get right spot. Right. This is going to be like, okay, mouthwash opportunity. Let's go and beat the daylight. out of these Arizona Cardinals and feel like we've got something again. I've done embarrassing game against the Cowboys. Giants minus four and a half, even on the road. I'm a big fan of that this week. Yeah, this is a classic week two. Don't put too much stock into week one.

Remember what you thought going into the season type game here. I like the Giants side there too. So again, this is the second week in a row. All of your picks are the sides that I liked in my column. So I don't know if that's good for you or bad for you, but that will be something else that's interesting to track here throughout the season. Andrew Thomas, I know I'm looking at was injured. I'm looking at Jordan Renan from ESPN covers the Giants.

His Twitter, it sounds like Andrew Thomas, the left tackle, is going to practice and has a chance to play in that game. And Darren Waller, same thing. Brian Daiball said everyone is going to practice on Friday. So they're healthier there. That line did move. It was minus six giants when I wrote my column on Wednesday night. Now on Friday morning, it's down to minus four and a half. All right.

My last two here, Benjamin. I'm taking two dogs. I'm taking two home dogs. Hopefully one of them hits. I've got the Titans plus three against the charges. Again, the Titans? They covered last week, my friend. They did not deserve to.

Deserved. There's no room for the word deserve in sports betting. We both know this, okay? When I got that Jets cover on Monday Night Football, you know, sometimes you win those, sometimes you lose those. And actually, I wouldn't fully agree with that. I don't think that, like, I thought they were absolutely in that game. They were shooting themselves in the foot all over.

the place, they easily could have won that game against the scene. So, listen, I pretty much always take Brable as an underdog. I like him in that role. He keeps his team in games that they should have no business being in. I think the Chargers are like going to be feeling some pressure in this game. Maybe they respond. They could blow out the Titans. That would not surprise me. But that Titans front, that Titans defense, they are ferocious. They are violent. You know, I know that Chargers offensive line is good. But man, they can make life hard, I feel like, for a lot of offenses there. I've got the Titans plus three in that game. You look like you don't like that side.

You think the Chargers bounce back in a big way and win this game? I had four teams that I was picking from, and the fourth side was Chargers minus three. Okay. There you go. Because the Titans are the Titans, and they can be really, they can go heavy and they can run the ball. And the Chargers defense is going to struggle with that. Keep it close. Keep it messy.

I really do believe in this Chargers offense. I believe in the Chargers' talent. I think they're going to be better. We very much disagree on that side, but not officially, not for the record book. A lot of people liked our charger segment, Ben, on Monday. You know, it's going at it, yelling. When we organically yell at each other and insult each other, that's good for the pot. You know, I wouldn't do that to just any podcast co-host.

I thought we did a nice job there not to pat ourselves on the back. I listened back to it. And I'm enjoying it. I'm laughing. And then I heard myself go, so what is the point? I was like, okay, that's where I got too angry. I need to not get to that point again. See, I can't listen back.

I don't want to hear my voice. I don't want to hear my voice on a voice recorder on a podcast or whatever. I don't usually listen back. I'll listen back for something like that. I wanted to make sure I had nothing to apologize to you for. No, I thought, listen, anything goes. This is like A.J. Brown on the sideline. Anything goes in the heat of the battle.

Let's go. Make up for it afterwards. All right. My last one, I actually don't think you're going to like my last one either. I've got another home dog. Jaguars plus three and a half against the chiefs. Do I feel good about going against Patrick Mahomes and Andy? read coming off a loss? Of course not. Am I going to regret this on Sunday afternoon when I'm

watching and the Chiefs are up by 14 points? Of course. But that's part of the exercise. You need to feel some pain to be able to feel the good stuff here. So I just feel like everybody's going to be on the Chiefs in this game. They're going to be like the Chiefs are not going 0-2. They get Chris Jones back in the mix. Maybe they get Travis Kelsey back. They're going to go down to Jacksonville and they're going to crush the Jaguars. I like this Jaguars offense quite a bit. I don't like their defense. So I think they're going to give up points in this game, but I do think they're going to be able to string together drives and put up points against that Kansas City defense.

So anytime I can kind of fade the way I think the public is going, and it's a side that I actually like, I'm going to do that. I thought Trevor Lawrence was great last week for my Monday morning headline. I thought about, you know, something like, you know, Trevor Lawrence has arrived or something. I mean, if they win this game and they beat the cheese, that's going to be the story after a week two. and I really think they have a shot to do that.

So I've got Jaguars plus three and a half against the Chiefs, Titans plus three against the Chargers, Broncos minus three and a half against the commanders. Run down your three once more? Broncos minus three and a half at home against the commanders, Giants minus four and a half on the road against the Cardinals, Packers plus one and a half on the road against the Falcons. The Jaguars, if the Jaguars win that game, it's coronation time, dude.

I mean, like, obviously Prever has to play well. But if, yeah, if, if Jacksonville beats the Chiefs and Trevor plays, well, we are going, we're going to have a week for some takes, man. Because I tell you, Trevor, the first film I turned on when the film dropped on Monday was Trevor against the Colts. That young man was slinging the rock. He is feeling it in week one with Calvin Ridley there. I'm very, very interested in that passing offense long term.

I forget who said this. I wish I could give credit, but I totally agree. Trevor Lawrence rolling to his left and firing a ball down. field is like one of the most beautiful sites in football right now. That's like his staple, I feel like where he, you're like, oh my God, how did he do that? That was amazing. He had one of those at least last week against the Colts. All right, let's sort out somehow. I was going to ask you this after the pot, but let's let the listeners in a little bit, Ben, because I forgot, we have two Monday night football games this week. Yeah. And we and we record. And they're concurrent.

And they're concurrent, which I don't like. Why don't you stack those bad boys? Yeah, stagger those bad boys. NFL? What are you doing to us? Uh, so I was thinking. I was thinking. And, you know, we do extra point taken on Monday night. We generally start with a take on Monday night football. We probably have to start with a take, two takes on Monday night football. So I'm going to give you the pick. What do you want? Do you want Saints at Panthers for your postgame extra point take and take?

Or do you want Browns at Steelers? What do you got? He's covering, he's holding his nose. Why would you give us two Monday night football games and not like definitely give us at least one good quarterback? Like there's a chance we get one good quarterback, but it's not locked in. I would like Steelers, Browns, because I would like to, you know, Owen to Steelers.

Make fun of me. Oh, and two Steelers, I'd like to be able to pilot that conversation if we get there. And also, you know, that game starts a little bit later, and I know it's tough for you, start to keep paying attention after nine. So I just got started getting a little tired. So I'll pick it up for you there. I mean, I would yell at you, but you're not lying there. So I do appreciate that.

I'll take the early start. I feel like I'm a winner in that game. either way. If the Steelers win, all right, shield like the Steelers coming in, they bounce back. If the Browns win, I can say, hey, I told you the Brown's defense was going to be incredible. I just, the biggest losing scenario for me would be if the Browns win in a shootout, like their defense stinks and they still win, then I'm the biggest loser. So everyone remember that as you watch that game. All right, I'll take a little Saints Panthers. I took the Saints minus three and I'm having some regrets about that, but I just look at who Bryce,

Panthers are down two starting guards. I'm watching Adam Thielen run routes out there. I had the Saints in that game. So that's what we'll lead with. Ben will give a Brown Steelers take on Monday night. I'll give a Saints Panthers take on Monday night. And then we will get to the rest of our takes from week two. All right. Thanks to everyone for listening.

Thanks to everyone who sent in a spreadsheet. We appreciate that. That was very, very nice of all of you. Congratulations. I don't even know if I should say congratulations. I don't even know if I should say congratulations. Like we're giving him work to do. He won a contest that he's probably going to regret by week seven.

I will say, though we had a it was a great gamut of of good emails right of like you know appeal to ben and she'll emails luke gave the resume he said he was a day one birds with friends listener that was shield's old pod didn't mention any of my old pods which is fine um but critically he underlined the names of the podcast as he mentioned them good little formatting right on the official title like a good yeah very good for that yeah well done uh and so yeah it was uh it was a lot of good everybody who's from somewhere else also like, I'm from Canada, I'm from Sweden. They all know it now. They know the bit. We love the international listeners. So it was cool to see.

Yeah, that was awesome. So thank you to everyone there. All right. Thank you to Cliff Augustine for producing. Cliff Augustine was up till the wee hours of the night, wakes up, part of technical difficulties. He comes back. He produces again. Producers. Backbone of the ringer. That's my take after being here for one year. So thank you to Cliff. Thank you to Solac. Additional production supervision by Connor Nevins and Arjuna Ram Gopal. The next episode will be Norse. and Stephen recapping week two on Sunday night. Definitely check that out. And then we will be back on after Monday night.

But by it, everyone. Enjoy week two. Have a great weekend. And we'll talk to you on Monday night. Oh, and Ben's still recording, baby. Thank you to Eddie. She'll forgot to thank Eddie. I'm a good thing person.

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