The Ringer NFL Show - What Questions Will Be Answered Before Week 1?

Episode Date: July 23, 2024

Sheil and Steven discuss three questions they each have that they believe will be answered during training camp and the preseason. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Steven Ruiz Producer: Isaiah Blakely Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, it's Brian Curtis from The Ringer, and I want to tell you about the Press Box podcast. The Press Box is a podcast for anybody who likes news, whether it's about sports or politics or pop culture, and wants to understand how that news really gets made. We have new shows every Monday and Thursday. We have long interviews with everyone from John Crackauer to Joe Buck. Your social media feeds are bursting with information every day. Let us help you sort it out. Join us.

on the press box. Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. Shield Capati here with Stephen Ruiz. It's happening. Football is here by Wednesday of this week, Ruiz. Every single NFL team will have started training camp. And then it's that six or seven month journey or however long it is, the NFL season is upon us. Are you ready?

Do you feel ready? You look good. You look refreshed. I appreciate it. And I do feel ready. I want to say you look good too. You look refreshed as well. And I'm very excited on this morning.

I'm coming off a thrilling victory in my college football dynasty. I just led U-TEP to an upset of Texas on the road, number one Texas, so that feels good. And football's back. What can be better than football being back? There you go. Football is back. We got some contract nonsense. We got some Patrick Mahomes clips to Xavier Worthy.

I mean, listen, it's all going to be happening for the next six or seven months. So what Ruiz and I wanted to do today is we want answers. You know, we looked at all the social media. content around training camp over the years and we know what to pay attention to and what not to pay attention to. So today it's about what questions can we get some answers to in the next whatever it is, six or seven weeks before week one. And let's do the caveat, Ruiz, because as I was doing this exercise, I came up with topics and I'm like, all right, well, I'm not going to exactly know the answer to that question, but you get some hints. You want to feel good about some of

these things, basically some things that might actually matter in this next stretch here as we look ahead to week one. So that's all we're doing. We didn't tell each other our topics. We didn't tell each other our questions. We each just came up with three. And we're going to go back and forth as a way to kind of set the table for this next stretch of training camp preseason. All that stuff. All right. Why don't you start us off? What do you got? What is your first question that you want an answer to? All right. This one's not very creative. I went with the old cliche, the old the training camp quarterback battle. Who is starting in Minnesota?

Who is going to be the starting quarterback in Minnesota? And you try to read the tea leaves, listening to coaching press conferences, listening to players, player interviews afterwards. And it's really hard to pick up. It seems like that Darnold is in line to start week one, but he could be given a short lease.

It might only be a matter of time before J.J. McCarthy gets on there. But I think this is an important question because this is the best division in football, I would say the NFC North, the deepest one, the most competitive one, I would say. And I do think there's a massive difference between giving this, this, I don't know what you want to call. I don't want to exaggerate how good this supporting cast is, but it is pretty good. It's like maybe the best supporting cast for any of the rookie quarterbacks.

But if you hand this over to JJ McCarthy, I think the expectations for the team have to be changed. And maybe dramatically, I'm not trying to hype up Sam Darnold. I know this has almost been the offseason of Sam Darnold because he might start. And honestly, sitting on the bench has been the best thing for his career. But I do think if Sam Darnold is in there rather than a rookie in J.J. McCarthy, the dynamic of the offense changes. And I think the floor of the offense gets raised considerably. And we saw what Brian Forrest did with this defense.

So I think the answer to this question will determine whether Minnesota is like a viable wildcard threat or a viable threat to win a playoff game. And if J.J. McCarthy is starting, I think we have to lower expectations that I think like an eight and eight or eight nine season nine and eight season. is more likely. Wait, you think the floor of this offense is raised significantly with Sam Darnold over J.J. McCarthy. Did I hear that correctly? Yeah, yeah. Is that a crazy take?

It's a crazy take. Sam Darnold has statistically probably been the worst quarterback in the NFL over the last, whatever it is, five, six years. And everyone wants to talk themselves into Sam Darnold. Listen, I wanted to see him under, you know, Kyle Shanney. I was hoping for like a little three game stretch. under Kyle Shanhan. Now, I'm not, you know, so brazen as to be like, there's no chance. It's never happened. I understand weird things happen in sports. That's why we watch. We make crazy

predictions. But the baseline has been set for Sam Darnold. I mean, what year are we going to stop believing in Sam Darnold? Like, like, how many, how many starts does the man have to get under his belt? He started 56 games in the NFL. He was drafted in 2018. He's entering his age 27 season. all of a sudden like what is okay so let me ask you this let's raise it a different way what would your baseline expectation if sam darnald is quarterbacking the minnesota vikings what would your expectation be for how he performs among the 32 starters let me preface this i'm not high on say listen i had impotted in a while we sometimes i know it gets built up and you just got to cut loose the first take you here when you come back is the sam darnel year seven sam darnel this is

the year he breaks out. No, it's not my faith in Sam Darnold because I've always been kind of lower on Sam Darnold, even like with the Jets. It's more about my faith in the infrastructure around him and Kevin O'Connell and having the best receiver on the planet to throw to and having Jordan Addison, like a very good number two. And then potentially a top 10, top five offensive line he's playing behind. I think he can give us like a 25 touchdown 10 interception season. He's obviously not, He's obviously not, yeah, yeah, I'm calling it. He's obviously not the horse carrying the cart, but I do think he can play some, if he could just play mistake-free football, we've seen him play good football when he has

fallen in a good situation. The problem is he never really falls in a good situation. He played for Adam Gase. He played for Jeremy Bates in New York with no receiving talent, no offensive line talent. He goes to Charlotte. He goes and plays in Carolina to play for Bat Ruhle, who was clearly in over his head as the NFL head coach and made a coordinator. change in the middle of the year that he was there.

And then we didn't really see him in San Francisco. He never really got a shot to play. He started last year in week 18, but none of the starters were really playing. So we don't really know what to expect from him. I'm not saying he's going to have a Gino-like Renaissance, but I do think there's a chance that he plays well enough to at least keep Minnesota in playoff contention. We saw Joe Flacco make a playoff run last year.

I think anything is possible. I like Joe. Poor Joe Flacco being used. Are we entering like Sam Bradford territory with Sam Darn? Is he the new Sam Bradford of this generation? Like the guy with the talent that was drafted high. I think that should have been the take. That take I can be on board with.

Yes, the guy that every team looks at and says, well, when we were scouting this guy or, well, you know, I went to his pro day or well, he did have those two games in Carolina that ever, like, three games. Three games. And you talk yourself into it that, hey, if he just gets in our system with our scheme, I mean, I'm looking at it now. You look at the last, and I even took out his rookie year.

If you just look at the last five seasons, 39 quarterbacks with 1,000 dropbacks. Sam Darnold ranks 37th in EPA per pass play. The two under him are Davis Mills and Zach Wilson. So like among guys who actually have gotten a shot and actually gotten to play, again, he's been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. So I don't disagree with what you were saying about the supporting cast there. It is sort of an interesting spot where it feels.

it's like if you can plug someone in who doesn't screw it up, they're going to have a chance because the tackles are good. You mentioned it. Justin Jefferson, I think we talked about this before. Like, just what he does, and I think this should equate to like the Kirk Cousins analysis.

Like he just takes over games. Like you can have a horrible throw where you're literally, I don't want this guy to hit me. I'm chucking it up. And it's a 35-yard game because the guy is amazing. So those things apply to Darden. Now I think where I disagree with you is, I think those things could apply to JJ McCarthy as well.

And I'm not, you know, like a J.J. McCarthy is going to come in and light the league on fire. But like, what did we see him do at Michigan? He could rip some throws over the middle of the field. They didn't put a lot on his plate. He's athletic enough. He's mobile enough that he should be able to do some of those things in Kevin O'Connell's system. And I don't think that the floor changes with J.J. McCarthy, you know, I think it's very similar. I think I could easily make, because I think if you look at rookie quarterbacks and I did this a couple of years ago, rookie quarterbacks who start in the NFL, tip it, the average season is they'll be like the 24th or 25th best starter in the league. And like I just don't

believe Sam Darnold is going to be the most likely outcome is Sam Darnold's going to be worse than that. And so if J.J. McCarthy has the average rookie season, maybe he's a little bit better than the average rookie season given the supporting cast you mentioned. I think they actually have a better chance with him than we're seeing, even if we're just saying, not even future, if we're just saying how can they be most competitive in the year 2024? I actually think it's with J.J. McCarthy over Sam Darnold. Can I push back against that? The reason why it's not necessarily like a talent level thing.

It's not like, well, I do think Sam Darnold's probably the better quarterback right now, which doesn't say much at all about Sam Darnold's, like, future prospects or J.J. McCarthy's. But I do think the volume of the offense is restricted when you have a rookie back there. It has to be almost. Like there's no way they're going to be able to run the same amount of stuff. And I think to get the most juice out of this Kevin O'Connell offense, like you're going to need to be able to run everything that he has in his playbook. And I just don't know if that's the case with Minnesota or with J.J. McCarthy. And then another thing is we kind of like we put KOC's offense into this bucket with like the quarterback friendly offense.

He comes from the Sean McVay tree. He comes with like, you know, the Shanahan tree. Those two get conflated a lot. But there was a lot of pressure on the quarterback to to produce the explosive plays. They didn't really have an explosive run game. And that's one thing J.J. was always able to lean on at Michigan. You know, the pressure was never on him. The onus was never on him to really create those.

explosive plays. 82% of Minnesota's explosive plays were passes last year. That's the third highest in the NFL behind the Chargers and the Jaguars, two of the most inept running games in the NFL. So I just think there's a chance that you're putting too much on a rookie quarterback, and then you're not able to do enough to kind of, you know, building those guardrails around it and make his job easier, make the offense as good as it could be.

I think that's a fair point. I think if that's the case, if you feel limited with a rookie quarterback, and it is hard, it's hard to come in and just digest everything. and be ready to go right away. If that's the case, if you feel like, hey, he's going to develop some bad habits because he's not ready yet, and we're throwing him out there.

And like you mentioned, you have competitive veteran guys on the offense. Like, this is a good one. I'm glad we started with this, because this is one where I feel like the players will know by the end of training camp who they want. And whether they say it or they don't say, like players, like Justin Jefferson,

by the time September 1st rolls around, when he's talking to friends, or family or whatever, he's going to have a firm opinion of God. I hope they don't choose quarterback X because quarterback Y gives us the better option to win games. And so it is a good one. It's kind of an old school little bit of a quarterback competition in the summer, the rookie, the veteran, neither is probably going to light it on fire.

But at the same time, you're not a bottom feeder team. I mean, you should be at least a mediocre team this year with the talent on the roster. So I think that is a good one. And that's got to be at the top of the list of things to watch here in the next six or seven weeks. All right. I'm going to take an easy one too here. Ruiz with my first one.

I'm going to stick with quarterback. It's not a competition. But the question is, I want to answer. Will Anthony Richardson's sophomore campaign be filled with optimism or dread? And so let's start with the positive. Richardson's ceiling. I was thinking about this and trying not to have hyperbole. in terms of like what he can accomplish this season,

I think there's a scenario where at the end of the year, we say he's one of the five most exciting quarterbacks in the NFL. Like I think he's got that talent level, that dual threat ability, the canon of an arm, the excitement and all those things. Now, having said that,

the guy had 98 dropbacks last season. So I don't want to react the 98 dropbacks, you know, and you saw that he started four games. He finished one of them. He had the season ending shoulder. injury. But again, I'm confident saying that he is capable of some high highs here in his second season. So that's why you would be optimistic if you're a Colts fan listening to this, that, hey,

this is going to be a fun 2024 season. Now, the dread aspect of this is just because of the injuries and what we saw in the spring. And I'll be honest, this kind of escaped my attention a little bit in the spring. And now that I'm prepping for the season, I didn't realize that kind of the end of their mini camp, the second to last day, Richardson was limited because a shoulder soreness. And the last day of minicamp, he didn't even participate because the shoulders soreness. Now, that could be a non-issue. It could be precautionary, no big deal. They get out there. He's lighting it up at training camp. Everything's good. Everyone's excited about the Colts and Richardson being healthy. Injuries can be fluky. We know that. But there's also a scenario where

it's like the worst kind of training camp if you're a fan where there's just this one storyline of is the quarterback healthy or is the quarterback not healthy? And you're hearing words like, precautionary and coaches are saying we're not worried about it and an assistant saying if we had a game Sunday he would play yet every day he's not participating in practice and you're like how worried am I supposed to be about this as a Colt fan and so that is a little bit of my concern a guy who's had some injuries in the past is coming off an injury and while the spring went well for a while it wasn't like 100% that the guy is back so he's probably on the list of if I had to make well, whatever, five, ten players that I really want to see how they look here in the next six,

seven weeks. I think he's definitely on that list. Yeah, just as a football fan, I just want to see him get through this season healthy, just to not only to be able to see what he's capable of, but to see what Shane Steichen is capable of with that, with that guy at the helm, because we saw a little glimpse of it in those 98 dropbacks. Well, they weren't dropbacks, but like the, the red zone run game was so good. Like, it transferred right over from Philly. And the worry was like, oh, he doesn't have Kelsey, he doesn't have this offensive line where you can do this stuff in the run game.

And maybe we underrated the Colts line because it had been, it had fallen off over the last couple of years, but I think it bounced back last year. I think it's a testament to Shane Steichen. But I agree with you. Like, I think we're going to know in training camp what kind of season it's going to be.

It's kind of like, if he gets banged up this training camp, it kind of becomes like a Carson Wentz thing. Like you remember Carson Wentz got hurt that first preseason and I think it was the rib injury. Yeah. And then he kept picking up these nagging injuries. And it's kind of happening with Joe Burrow,

but I think Joe Burrow has actually been, you know, good at football around those. So if he does pick up a knock and he's not playing in preseason, you don't get to watch him play in preseason, and you don't know if he's going to start week one. Then the Colts probably have to rethink their strategy and how they use him, like as a runner in the run game. I do think there's a chance that by, you know,

September 12th or whenever the season starts, that we're like, oh, we were high on the Colts all summer, but now I don't know what to think about this team. I think there's a very good chance. But I do think he's going to stay healthy. I think the two injuries were kind of freak injuries. On one, he was scoring a touchdown. Like he had already scored the touchdown and he fell on the shoulder.

He protects himself well in the pocket. I think that's the one thing that's underrated about him is his ability to avoid sacks, which was on tape at Florida. And his ability to kind of do that like Jordan Love thing where he's making throws off platform, but it doesn't affect his arm strength at all. He made one throw in the Rams game where Aaron Donald was holding him. Aaron Donald, the best defensive player of all time, in my opinion. Maybe one of the best football players of all time.

Maybe one of the best athletes of all time had him in his grasp. And this guy threw a like a 40-yard perimeter outside the numbers down the field throw right on the money in stride. And I can't get that throw out of my mind. And if you watch the games, if you watch that Rams game specifically, there are so many other instances and flashes of his arm talent. Like you talked about his ceiling. I don't know what his ceiling is.

I'm not saying he's going to hit his ceiling. I think there's a very small chance that he hits his ceiling. Because how many players do. But if he hits the ceiling, I mean, this is Patrick Holmes, Josh Allen-type talent we're talking about. Yeah. No, I mean, the physical tools he has at his disposal, you're right, that, you know, top percent outcome is not only like a player

who you're building your franchise around and it's going to be in the mix to contend for Super Bowls for a long time. But again, also just the, well, you, I'm glad you mentioned. just as a football fan, a guy who is like must see TV every Sunday or for what you and I do, you're catching up late Sunday night on Monday. What did I miss? Oh, I got to watch Anthony Richardson. Yeah, I'm not letting that one go. That type of players. I'm with you. I really hope that they get to camp and he's out there the first day of practice and they say, you know what? He's fine. We told you guys it was precautionary. It's no big deal. The shoulders feeling good. They've got two joint

practices too. They have the Cardinals and the Bengals and it's always fun. to watch quarterbacks in that setting. You know, I just want to be seeing the tweets come across my screen that, man, he's carving up this defense. Oh, my gosh, he's going after this corner over and over again.

Or, you know, here's a clip of a play like you mentioned with Aaron Donald, where, you know, he's in a weird spot off platform. And man, that arm is just so, so special. He didn't look,

you know, and again, I haven't done like a rewatch this summer, but watching him last year, he was far less of like project D, raw, than I anticipated. You're like, this guy knows what he's doing,

knows what he's doing here. I feel like there's like a, I don't know, people kind of confuse Rawl with a little inaccurate. Like I do think like those get conflated sometimes. And those are totally different in his case. Like there is accuracy problems. If you watch the tape, like there's touch problems. Now he does make throws with touch,

which leads me to believe that he hasn't in him. Like Cam Newton, for instance, he had like this weird kind of sidearm delivery and was never able throughout his career to throw with touch. like it just wasn't a thing he ever did. But with Richardson, you're less worried about that because he has put it on tape. And another thing that's underrated with him is like the eye manipulation. He does like the Patrick Mahones, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rogers type thing where he's looking

off defenders. He's holding defenders with his eyes and then throwing back into the void that he just created. And that takes like a certain level of understanding of the game. And I think he's above where people thought he was going to be. and I think that's just going to continue to get better and better as as he plays, but he has to play. There's no doubt he does the quarterback stuff already. And yeah, I'll be, I didn't think I thought just, you know, as I look at stuff analytic, I'm like, oh, man, it's such a small, he's barely played in college. And yeah, like I watched his, you know, you watch his 20 best plays.

And I was like, man, okay, I absolutely see it how you could talk yourself into this guy. But given the lack of experience, everything we know about quarterbacking in the NFL, that is typically a guy who it's going to take a while to develop in. Again, four games, 98 dropbacks, but man, you saw some exciting flashes of it. So let's hope he stays healthy. All right. We'll come back. We'll get to Ruiz's second question. All right, we're back on the Ringer NFL show.

We started with some big ones. Yeah, I feel like we'll get to some hipsy stuff maybe here at the end. But what do you have? What's your second question you want to answer in the weeks ahead? You mentioned this earlier. You mentioned the clips, the Patrick Mahomes, Xavier Worthy clips. I want to know what the Chiefs Receiving Corps is going to look like going into week one. It's not just an Xavier Worthy question.

It's also a Rashid question. He's obviously dealing with a potential suspension to start the season after the off-the-field incidents, plural, this off-season. But I do think there's a fine line where the chiefs are, like the 2018 chiefs, they're just a powerhouse, the rolling through teams. I'm talking about their offense specifically,

and a repeat of last year. Let's say Rice asked them this time. Let's say Xavier Worthy, and these clips are just kind of a tease, and he's not really ready to play, and he's not starting, and Sky Moore's back out there again. And then Travis Kelsey,

coming off the worst season of his career, I would say, he was dealing with injuries, and I think that was a big reason, but he bounced back in the playoffs, like which Travis Kelsey do we get? Like, if they get the wrong end of all those 50-50 propositions,

maybe they're not 50-50, but if they get the, they get bad breaks in all those cases, what does this offense look like? Now, on the other hand, like that throw that Patrick Collins made, he was like ranging to his, left pivoted his hips, had like half a second, and just unfurls this like perfectly thrown

pass into tight coverage. And Xavier Worthy brings it down in the end zone. And everything you've read about, Worthy's performance in camp and OTAs has been positive. And it seems like he's ready to play and he's ready to be a factor. If that's the case, and they have that deep element that they haven't had since Tyree killed, Patrick Mahomes was like last in Addot last year. Like he was one of the most conservative quarterbacks, quote, unquote. I don't think that's actually what it was.

I think he was going through his progressions and hitting checkdowns, and that brought down his A-DOT. But there was a lack of explosive potential in this offense. Even when things got going in the playoffs, it was Rashid Rice over the middle. It was Travis Kelsey doing what Travis Kelsey does, like tight-end things. There was no deep element. They didn't have anyone they could trust to catch the ball deep.

If Xavier Worthy is that guy, I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if the Chiefs win 15 games next year. Whoa. Okay. So what do you think is more likely? If I had to ask you, is it going to look more like what it looked like last year where there were some obvious ups and downs? And I famously said it wasn't good enough. And they can't win the Super Bowl like this.

And then they won the Super Bowl. Is it going to look more like that? Or is it going to look more like a return to the high octane? And I'll let you think about this for a second. But the high octane like, oh, my goodness, no one can stop this offense. Because if you just look at it statistically, I mean, the numbers obviously aren't the whole story, but we watched it with our own eyes. They were eighth in offensive DVOA last year.

I think that's probably the floor of a Patrick Mahomes led offense. Like I just in my head, I can't picture them finishing worse than that. And I know when the Super Bowl ended, I'm like, all right, that was probably the least help Patrick Mahomes is ever going to get. But then I looked at the offseason and I'm like, well, okay. Like it's, I sort of expected by this time, we would have seen more help. for Patrick Mahom. So are you bullish that actually with this supporting cast, it is good enough to get back to that kind of explosive version? I am. We haven't mentioned Hollywood Brown yet, who I do think is a quality player.

I don't think he's like, you know, a game changer. But I do think he's, he gives them something they blacked in the last couple of years. But I do think it's going to look like 2018. And like schematically last year, they kind of went back to that, that style of offense. It was the most shotgun they had used since 2018 last year. lowest rate of play action. So this, like the chiefs had kind of leaned into like, oh, we're going to be a tough run team. We're going to have tight ends on the field. They still put tight ends on the field.

And we're going to run play action the last couple years. But in 2023, they kind of went back to what they started with, with the spread out stuff, more of it at least. So I think their personnel moves, like going for that same type of receiver, they've kind of favored. Like when they drafted Nicole Hardman, that like undersized Speedster, they get Hollywood Brown, who obviously fits that bill. worthy obviously fits that bill. So I do wonder if that is the goal is like to spread things out, throw down field, bomb it, bombs away with Patrick Mahomes and get back to what they were best at five years ago. And if they do, I think Mahomes is a much better quarterback. Like all my faith

is in Mahomes. Like the offensive line, the middle of the offensive line is good enough to support that style of offense, like a heavy dropback offense. I'm worried about the tackles. That's the question with this team. We don't know who's starting at left tackle yet between one. I think he's going to be the favorite. He has the leg up there. So we'll see what happens if the offense line can sustain this. But they have the quarterback. I think they have the pieces if they all hit and they're all on the field.

I'm really high on the chiefs this year, which is like that's not a bold take at all. Right. Well, no, but what you said about the offense, I think is a bold take because I'm on the other side. And again, I've been wrong about this team just, you know, months ago last year. But I look at the offense. I actually think in terms of production. and my confidence in them, it's really not that different than last year.

And again, eighth in DVI, that's not like the, you know, that's a very good offense. A lot, most teams in the NFL would kill for a season to be eighth in DVOA, but it's not a juggerna.

It's not those other versions of the chiefs that we've seen where you're just like, you have no chance against this team. I mean, I even go to the Super Bowl and I think there's some revisionist history with the Super Bowl. Like, they had two field goals on their first nine possessions, you know, if the 49ers offense was able to hold,

a normal NFL game for people who are, you know, if you're wondering, who cares, nine possessions. Like normally you get 10 or 11 possessions in the game. They got 13 possessions because their, the chief's defense was playing so well. I think you and I have talked about that before that. Make sure the chief's defense gets the credit for the most part for that Super Bowl. Even the AFC championship game, they score on the first two possessions and then Baltimore blanks them for the rest of the, it wasn't like a dominant offense performance.

And even the touchdown was like Patrick Mahomes just pulling stuff out of his ass on fourth down into Travis Kelsey. So yeah, I think you're right. right there. So I, you know, I think, now obviously, if you keep giving, I agree, you keep giving Mahomes chances. You can throw basically any 10 other NFL players out there. And I'm with you. You still have the confidence that he's going to make it happen. I mean, if you want to think about, like, if you're thinking about how good is my quarterback, plug them into the chiefs, the version of the chief's offense last year and guess in your head where that team finishes. I mean, that,

to me really, like, kind of puts it into perspective what he's asked to do. But yeah, they still have the questions at offensive tackle. And, you know, the average wide receiver, first round picks, wide receivers over the last 10 seasons, the average year as a rookie is 664 yards. So like, that's the average. Now, there are awesome ones, Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, Odell Beckham, we know there are those. But on average, you take, like, it's hard. It still is hard to be a rookie wide receiver in the NFL. Now, I think it's become better in recent years, like if I did probably the last three years. It might be higher.

But I do think we overrate that sometimes how often a rookie wide receiver can come in and be a monster right away. Put a number on worthy season. Like if they're top five offense and they're like they prove you wrong. They're one of the elite offense in the league. What do you think worthy season looks like in that offense?

So they're a top five offense in that scenario. What does he have to do to get, to get them there? It's a good question. Okay. So he would probably, I don't maybe it's not that

I don't know yeah maybe maybe I don't know if this was the point of your question but if he has eight or 800 900 yards that might be good enough depending on what the Rashi

now it depends what the Rashi rice suspension is but yeah they did add Hollywood Brown Kelsey is a year older but I don't know that that's what I was thinking is that way you were sort of

indicating that he doesn't have to be that great yeah I think he just like yeah 750 is good enough for me I got okay one more one more stat before we move on to the next question.

And this really has nothing to do with what we've been talking about, kind of. Travis Kelsey isolated routes and receptions. In 2019, 130 routes, 28 receptions, 2020, 150 routes, 23. And this has been going down year by year. He went to 98 routes, 11 catches in 2021, 57 routes, eight catches in 2022. Last year, guess how many isolated receptions he had? Like where he was isolated, there was trips. on the other side and he caught a pass.

How many, how many catches do you think he had? Did you say it was eight in 2022? Yeah. Now, guess 2023. Oh my gosh. I don't know. Given that you're asking me the question, I would probably say lower six. One.

He had one. Really? Oh, my gosh. I can't believe that. On 31 routes. So I do think like the chiefs kind of see his role adapting as he gets older. Obviously, you have to. You can't put so much on him.

I don't know if it was like, oh, he's old and we can't do it anymore. Or, oh, he's old and let's save him for January. Because there was some of that, he didn't play a lot on first down. They got the other tight ends in there. I don't think they wanted him blocking. I don't think they wanted him wearing his body down because they needed him on third down. So I do think there's been an adjustment in his role and someone's got to have to step up into that void. It might be right.

But if he's not there, who is it going to be? Because I don't think a little guy can kind of fill that role as the ISO receiver. Right. Well, that's crazy. That's like, I mean, that was his bread and butter in his prime. It's just like, that's unstoppable. Like you said, three to once, three by one. Kelsey's the one. Good luck. You have no one who can match up with them. And then you have Hill running like the crosser at the top. And I wonder if that's what they're trying to get back to you with Worthy and Hollywood Brown is having that guy to kind of open things up for Kelsey underneath. But we'll see what happens.

Andy's got a type. There's no doubt. I mean, you go back to Sean Jackson. And now the, yeah, it's if you're small and can run, he's got a place for you. You're going to get some opportunities there. All right. My next one, we're sticking in the AFC. And my question is, who is stepping up on this bill's offense? I think there will be an impulse probably in the next, you know, as all the preview stuff comes out, you're going to, people are going to look at the depth chart and count the bills out and say it's a transition year. They've moved on from a bunch of vets. They let Diggs go. They let Gabe Davis walk in free agency. Sorry, they traded Diggs. And they're taking a reset. And I don't think that's necessarily wrong.

I think big picture that, you know, Boyer, hide, all these veterans that you just kind of let walk. They realize we need to get younger. We need to start kind of version, you know, 2.0 or 3.0 with Josh Allen. But to your point about Mahomes, Alan is not Mahomes, but I just think he puts you in the mix every season. And I don't know that the cupboard is as bare as some people think. And so let me make the case.

Dalton Kincaid last year, 6773 receiving yards. In the last 10 years, that's the fourth highest total for a rookie tight end. And he cut 80% of his target. So he wasn't the most explosive guy in the way they used him, but a very efficient connection between Josh Allen and Dalton Kincaid. Khalil Shakir, 611 receiving yards. Not lighting the world on fire, but that's like wide receiver 2 type of production and very

efficient. He was thrown to, I didn't realize this until prepping for the pie. thrown two 45 times for ease caught 39 of them like that's crazy I mean that like even they went that was working well for the bills running back James Cook 445 receiving yards

eighth among running backs average 10 yards per reception that's a big big number for a running back now listen you compare this to some of the uh teams with like here AJ Brown and Devante Smith like there are obviously offense where you look at and you say no that's an embarrassment of riches compared to the bills

but I look at the like those are three capable players who have done it. It's not like a huge projection. Like if they do what they did last year, those are three complementary pieces. Now you throw in a guy like Keon Coleman and we just mentioned it when we're talking about the Chiefs. Temper expectations a little bit for the rookies, but still, if he gives you six, seven hundred yards, now all of a sudden you have another complimentary piece. So what does this have to do with training camp? I mean, I want to hear reports in training camp about Josh Allen's chemistry with Keon Coleman. I want to see those clips. I want to see those clips. of Keon Coleman

making those acrobatic catches like he did in college. I want to hear about stories about Dalton Kincaid is making the second year leap. Maybe, you know, to fit the narrative, maybe a little like,

oh, you know, Josh is playing looser and freer than he ever had. Like, he doesn't care where the ball goes, you know, it's just, it's got like the backers last year. Yeah, you know,

everybody's on the same page year. So I'm not giving up on this Bill's team. I think as long as they have Josh Allen, they're going to have a chance, but I do want to keep an eye on that all. offense in training camp and see are the signs positive with these guys, Coleman, Kincaid, Shakir, and everybody else who they've kind of taken a flyer on this off season. Yeah, I think the guy that steps up is Khalil Shakir.

I've kind of gone on the same journey as you with his team. I know we did the Dixpot together. We were both like, oh, God, this team, what is his team going to do this year? But you look at it, you look at the numbers, especially Shakir. Like, I had the same situation where I was surprised at how good he was, like how productive if he ended up being at the end of the year, especially after Diggs kind of got, his targets were waning down after Joe Brady took over.

Shakir was the one that got those targets. And it was an interesting stat profile because he is a slot guy. He profiles as a slot guy, but he averaged 16 yards per reception out of the slot, which was one of the highest numbers in the league. So it's not like an Amunrah, St. Brown situation where, you know, he's like the possession guy.

He's going to get you, he's going to get you 10 yards on 3rd and 10. He's going to get you 16 yards. on 3rd and 10. And I think if he could, now that he's getting more volume, if he can carry over that momentum from last year, I think he's not a number one, but I think he can produce like a number one in that offense with Josh Allen, you know, supplying him the football.

I'm high on the bills. I'm higher on the bills than I thought I would be this year. I'm high on their offense. I think they do have a decent supporting cast. And I think the underrated thing is how far this offense has to fall. They were like number two and number one or number two and number three and run EPA, past EPA. We talked about their season last year.

They fired their offensive coordinator. It was a tough year for them. They underachieved. But statistically, this was an elite offense. So even if they do take a step back without digs, I think maybe they go back to like sixth or seventh. Like we said the floor for the chief's offense with Mahomes is eight. Patrick Bowles is a better quarterback than Josh Allen.

I just want that take out there before I say what I'm going to say next. I think the floor might be even higher. with a player like Josh Allen because of what he does in the run game. Because he can provide explosive runs. Whereas Patrick Holmes can get you a, you know, he can scramble for a first down on third down, but he's not going to give you like a 25-yard run where he's bulldozing through defenders and stuff.

I think there are two unique players in the league like that. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson. When they're healthy, top five offense. They're a top-five offense starter pack on their own. So I'm with you here, and I think someone does step up. but I think it's Shakir, but I wouldn't be surprised if Keon Coleman, like, has a decent rookie year. Like, he hits over 650 yards, whatever that number was for the average rookie year.

If he does that, this is a top 10 offense again. And I want to see what happens on defense that got younger. I trust Shaw McDermott to kind of get that defense prepared. So I think that this has a chance to be a surprisingly good year in Buffalo after a couple disappointing years, the last couple. Yeah, your point with Allen in the run game is a great. I mean, you are pretty much guaranteed an efficient run game. with Josh Allen as your quarterback.

And he's so durable because he's such a monster and he doesn't, you know, have those injuries that keep him out. And to your point, yeah, they were third and offensive DVOA last year. In a season where it felt like everything went wrong, they had a top three offense in the NFL. And if you look at the last four seasons, they've had a top 10 offense every season. They've had a top five offense three times in four seasons.

And that's been with a lot of stuff rotating around Josh Allen, whether it's offensive linemen, offensive coordinator, personnel, all those things. And then my favorite stat on the bills, Ruiz. You're going to be so sick in me saying this over the next two months. But in the regular season, in their last 40 games, no team has beaten them by more than six points.

Like that's the type of team I love. You're just always in it, consistently competitive. I know the Bengals did it in the playoffs. I'm not trying to cherry pick stats. But if we're just talking about who's going to be in the mix at the end of the season, like, man, you kind of throw in Josh Allen with a defense. that has had some stumbles in the playoffs,

but they're going to do more with less in the regular season. We saw that last year, and you're just kind of kind of be in every single game. So when they lose, they've lost a lot of close games, but when they win, they're blowing teams out quite a bit. Yeah, I'm not giving up on that Phil's team quite yet. All right, let's do one more break. We will come back with our third questions that we want to answer.

All right, here we go back on the Ringer NFL show. What do you got, Ruiz? What's your third one? The last question is kind of broad, but I feel like it's a question we ask almost every September and October about this team. What is the Bengals offense going to be this year? Because I think like every year that Joe Burrow has been the starter, save for his rookie year where he obviously got hurt, the offense has kind of gone through this evolution where,

you know, like they have the explosive plays, defenses figure out how to take them away. They don't really have like the run game on first down to mitigate that. and they have to evolve. Like two years ago, they found the RPO game out of the gun. They changed their early down offense from like the Shaw McVay under center, outside zone stuff to get in the gun and run RPO stuff like Joe Burrow did at LSU. And it really helped them. Like during a stretch, they were a top five run game.

And this was a bad offensive line and an offense that has been critiqued for its lack of a run game. But last year, we didn't really get to see that evolution. Like Joe Burrow was hurt and they kind of had to work around that. We saw them work in some pistol because Burrow couldn't take drops from under center. That kind of worked. And then Joe Burrow goes out. And then Joe Burrow goes out and the entire offense changed. Now we see the offense we thought we were getting when Zach Taylor took over this job.

We see the under center. We see the Shaw McVeigh influence. We see the jet sweeps outside zone. They're running different types of run concepts. They're not just running outside zone. Running counters and whambs. They're running screen passes. They're feeding the ball to Jamar Chase on screens.

And he's giving yards out. the catch. Like the offense after Burrow went out was so much better like structurally that the offense we have seen him play it. And I do wonder if that little, that little period where Browning was playing convinced Zach Taylor, maybe convinced Joe Burrow that, hey, we have to do this stuff. Like Burrow is very famously a quarterback who doesn't like to be under center, doesn't like to turn his back to the defense on play action. He likes to spread things out and read the field because that's what he's best at. He's like Peyton Manning in that regard. But I just think you need those easy explosives,

and they've never had those with Burrow under center. So I do wonder if the offense changes, and I think we're going to find out in camp. We're going to hear, oh, yeah, they're working under center more often. I think Joe Burroughs going to talk about it because he's one of the few quarterbacks that actually says something in media.

Yeah. Like he'll explain stuff to you. Yeah, like CJ Stroud, too. Those are the two probably right now. I hope Stroud doesn't get ruined and stops doing it because he was awesome doing that last year also. Yeah, like two years ago, Burrow, like every week in the press conference, like, oh, yeah, this stuff didn't work, the RPO's working, this is how defense

their play. I'm like, dude, you shouldn't be saying this. You're just giving it away. Like, you're making my job. Listen, other teams have film. They know what's working and what's not. Don't tell them not to do it. That's a good point.

But let me give you some stats. Week one through week 11 with Burrow on the field. Guess how many explosive plays they had from under center? Three. No, it's lower than how many receptions Travis Kelsey had isolate. They had zero. Zero explosive plays from under center in 11th. 11 weeks. That was the, that's insane to me. I don't even know how that happens.

Week 12 on without Burrow, 16% explosive play rate from under center, which is one of the best numbers in the NFL. Like I think that that's the proof of concept there. Bring that stat to Joe Burrow and say, hey, look, I know you don't like to be under center, but look what happened to our offense when we went under center. And we had Jake Browning back there, not you, and you're way better than him. So I do hope that time away from the field and being able to see the offense work as it's designed to work, will convince Joe Burrow, like, this is what we need. This is the offense we need. And I think we're going to see it in training camp if it does happen. Now, if they're just lining up and gun and spreading things out, I think it's going to be

more of the same, which has worked for Cincinnati. But I do think they need an evolution to kind to close the gap on the chiefs. I think you make a good point that that that coaching staff, it's got like, no one really has a strong, you know, I don't know, maybe they do. No one's like, oh, man, they're doing a, you know, on the offensive side of the ball. We know about Louie and a room, but no one has given them much credit. But I do feel like they try things. They evolve. I mean, you mentioned it.

The Super Bowl season, it was like everything's downfield that you can't. They're not going to be able to do this next year. To your point, Joe Burrow said it like, you know, months after the Super Bowl, the no teams are going to play us in two more too high next year. And then, yes, what happened? They had to be more methodical and they had to figure out stuff in the run game. And then you said it last year, Burrow goes down with the injury. A lot of teams, their season completely falls apart at that point.

nine and eight. Their offense was 11th in DVOA last year with Joe Burrow starting 10 games and an injured Joe Burrow, by the way. I mean, they were like that was, we all watched it. You know, he had the great game, I think, against the Niners, but there were games where he's just like, man, the guy can't operate. He's injured right now. So you had that version of Burrow. You had Jake Browning starting seven games who know what he thought Jake Browning can give you average quarterback play. And you finish 11th in DVOA? Like, that's a good job by the coaching staff. And so if you're a Bengals fan listening to what Ruiz just said. I mean, like, kind of be excited.

Like, yes, they could, there are different versions of this thing. They can pull out and try to implement depending on what the personnel looks like. The quarterback's preference is, the opponent, the game plan, what you need in a specific game, all those things. Like, that's the kind of offense you want, that you have different answers to different problems. It's probably one reason. I'm pretty bullish on the Bengals this season.

But, yeah, I do like your point that we don't know. exactly what it's going to look like. What did they learn from that experience with Browning and how comfortable is Joe Burrow at this stage of his career trying some of those things. Let me just add one qualifier to that stat, the explosive play. That was in the open field. So between the 20s, I didn't include Red Zone because I think that's, those aren't real explosives. Those are, you know, something else. Okay. Gotcha. See, this guy's worried about accuracy. Say all you podcasters out there, you know, just say this guy's self-correction. Let it be a lesson to us all. All right. My last one here.

what does Jeff Halfley bring to the table? I feel like Ruiz Jeff Halfley is like a good name as like the, if you're different, if you're like talking to whatever, you know, a neighbor for me, it might be, you know, like a friend of my daughter, like their mom or dad and you're talking. Like if somebody knows who Jeff Halfley is,

like they're not a casual. Like that person's in. They're ready for the NFL season because if you're listening to this, it's okay if you don't know who Jeff Halfley is. He is the new Packers defensive coordinator. And in terms of new under the radar characters who are going to be in our lives, I think he's a pretty interesting one because I think this Packers team has a high, high ceiling.

I don't know who I'm picking to get to the Super Bowl in either conference yet. Give me a month or so and we'll do that on this very feed. But you got to look at that defense and say, can they finally figure it out? because Matt LaFleur, he has gone from Mike Petton to Joe Barry to now Halfley, and he's been, what, coach for six seasons. And so you look at the talent on that side of the ball, probably not elite, but it's way better than they showed last year. They're 27th in DVOA, 31st in success rate.

We all watched that defense weekend and week out, and it was not a good defense. I mean, Bryce Young loves that defense was around last year because, I mean, he was just carving him up in that. season game. So I want to, like, I know very little about Jeff Hathley. I'll be honest. He spent seven seasons as, as an assistant in the NFL. He was the head coach at Boston College. BC finished 87th and 100th in scoring defense the last two seasons. Now, players matter, but, you know, if you're a Packers fan, it'd probably feel a little bit better if the numbers were a little bit

better than that. And so I want to see what this thing looks like, because apparently at BC, he He ran a pretty aggressive scheme, single high safety, a lot of man coverage. And is that what he's bringing to the table in the NFL? Is it going to look a little bit? I guess maybe like those 49ers, defenses, a little bit like the Jets play under Robert Sala, maybe a little bit like the Texans play under D'Amico Ryan's. Like, is that the tree, the family were talking about? Or is he doing something different?

And he just did that because that was the easiest thing to do with the personnel that he had. I don't know. But I look at this roster and the way it's assembled, for the Packers to get to the Super Bowl or be a contender. I need an elite offense, which I think they're capable of. I need a competent defense. I don't need a great defense. Like a mediocre defense that maybe has some good game playing stuff and key spots,

that is an absolute win. So I want to see what they're doing at practice. I want to see what players are saying about him. And that stuff can lie to you. I get it. They could say one thing. And then in week four, we're saying, man, this guy's not bringing anything new to the table.

But I at least want the signs to be positive here in the week ahead, you know, some kind of those, you know, sub-tweeting like Joe Barry, like, yeah, you know, we're not, we're actually doing stuff on defense this year. Yeah, it's, oh, my God. That's what you always get, right? Yeah. It doesn't matter whether, like, you make the offense or the defense more complicated or you make it more simple. Either way, it's better. It's like, if it's more complicated, you're like, oh, yeah, we got, you know, this defense totally different. We have different. If it's easier, it's like, yeah, we're just thinking, we're just firing out, or we're not thinking we're firing out there. So either way you can spin it. That's right. And

that's what we'll get. And so, again, that's why I will take it with a grain of salt when I hear it for sure, but I at least, you know, and whether they're doing stuff at practice, I don't know if they have joint practices or not. I want to see some progress, some signs of progress for that Packers defense or that they go into the season and I say, hey, at least they have a chance this thing. Because last season, I went into it. I remember I did my offense and defensive rankings going into the season. And listen, I get a bunch of stuff wrong, but I was very low on the Packers. and there are people saying, how can you say this? Look at their depth chart.

And I'm like, look at the coordinator. The coordinator matters a lot. And I'm not buying into it until he shows me. So I want to feel better about them this year than I did last season. Yeah. And you almost like you feel good about a college coordinator these days. Just because you know they've dealt with all this stuff that these coaches have to deal with. Like they know how to deal with the spread out offenses, the RPO's and work around talent

deficiencies, especially if you worked at Boston College in the ACC. like he probably had the worst defensive personnel in that conference. But that is a good question because I think that's what the ceiling comes down to. Is he a value at or is he just like a guy? Or is he Joe Barry and he's actually like pulling your defense down? That could determine how this Packer season goes. Like I have all the faith in the world on the offensive side. No worry whatsoever.

Mat LaFle, he's an elite coach at this point. I have no more questions about him now that he's done it with a different quarterback and he's developed a quarterback on his own, something that we haven't seen any of the superstars in that coaching tree do. I haven't seen Sean McPay develop a quarterback. He didn't develop Jared Gough. Has Kyle Shanahan developed a quarterback, really? Like, you could argue Brock Purdy is his guy.

But the thing about Purdy is, like, he was pro-ready. That's what everyone was saying about him. But he didn't need to be developed necessarily. So I have all the faith in the world and the floor. But if Hathley is a bad defensive coordinator, like Joe Bollett. Barry was, I do think this is a team that's probably going to go out in the first or second round of the playoffs again, like they did last year. If he is a average defensive coordinator, I think this team can make the NFC title game. If he is a good defensive coordinator,

this team can win the Super Bowl. Yeah. They, not only do they have a decent defensive roster, they filled the one hole on the roster on the defensive side of the ball, the safety position, which might have been the worst position group in all the football last year. They bring in Xavier McKinney. They draft a bullet in the, uh, the, uh, the, uh, the, uh, the, uh, the, second round. I think there's a chance. This is a top 10 defense. And this is a top 10 offense also. That's a recipe for a Super Bowl run. I think it's a good way to frame it because if you gave this personnel to whoever your favorite, if you're listening, pick your favorite defensive coordinator. Let's say whatever, Mike McDonald, Vic Fian, like whoever you want to say, I think you make a

pretty strong case that it would be a top 10 defense. Again, it's not loaded. I'm not to tell you but they've got talent on the defensive line in Kenny Clark and Roshan Gary in a flurry of first-round picks in recent seasons. They've got athletic linebackers. They've got Jaya Alexander at corner. You mentioned Xavier McKinney, he got paid way more than I expected to, but he was one of my favorite players when I was doing the free agency stuff for the ringer. And he is a guy who allows, if you want to play single high, that's like, I don't know that there's five other safeties in the NFL. I would rather have than him in terms of his range back there. So you have the flexibility, at least, to play that way if you want to play that way.

So there's some talent. These are young guys, too. Like young players, you can make the case that they're going to get better if you've seen flashes. This isn't an old defense. And so, yeah, I think there's a reason to think that if he happily is a good defensive coordinator, that they really have a chance to do something special this season. But I'm glad you pointed out the floor as well because this time of year, we look at teams

and coaches and roster and we're like, oh, they change something. They're going to be better. it's not always like how it works. The guy could be the same. The guy could always be worse. So I think he's got a lot of proof for sure. You mentioned this, but like the blue chip talent they have on this defense is insane.

Like literally mind-boggling how much. Yeah. Let me go down the starting line. Rishon Gary, first-round pick. Kenny Clark, first-round pick. Devonte Wyatt, first-round pick. Preston Smith came over from Washington was a first-round pick. He might have been a second-round pick.

Quay Walker, first-round pick. Edgaret, Cooper. second round pick. Eric Stokes' first round pick. Xavier McKinney. I think he might have gone round two in New York. I don't remember, but obviously they paid him a lot of money. Javon Bullard, a second round pick. Javier Alexander, a first round pick. That's their starting lineup. And I didn't say anything below second round. That's insane. And then Lucas Van Ness coming off the bench. A first round talent. Yeah. Van Ness, yeah. Like, there's a chance that Joe Barry wasn't just like not getting the most

out of this defense that he was like really wasting. You remember when the cheese has like eight all pros the year before Andy Reid got there and they had won like two games. I think Romeo Cornell was the coach. I don't think everyone. I don't even remember that. It was like eight pro bowlers or something like that and they were the worst team in football. It was like a weird occurrence. And then Andy Reid comes in and you get a cop not just a competent coach, but you get one of the

best coaches in the league. And they win like 13 games next year or 11 games the next year. I think there's a chance that we get this. I just don't know anything about Jeff Hathley. And I will say this. You mentioned Xavier McKinney. they have man corners in the secondary. Like Eric Stokes, Chira, Alexander,

even McKinney can rotate down into the slot and play man. So they do have the dudes to play the style of defense. This guy has played in college. So if he does want to institute the scheme, he can. He has the personnel. I'm interested to see what the ceiling is with this talent. Yeah, no, it's just sort of like a random guy just dropped into our world. And now, you know, two months from now,

we're going to have Jeff Hathley opinions. We're either going to love him or hate him. Yeah, that's right. Never thought about the guy, really, until a couple months ago. So there you go. So, yeah, if you're, listen, if you're out there and you're talking football and you're trying to test, is this person a casual or is this person a sicko like me that listens to the ringer NFL show?

Just drop a little Jeff Halfley. See what they got. See what they got for you. All right. This was fun. Little table setter for training camp. When we come back and Ruiz is going to come back with me and Deonté Lee later in the week.

have seen some of these clips to get all pumped up about. Hopefully we don't see any injuries. That's the worst part about this time of year. But hopefully we're looking at it and we're bringing you some storylines from the early part of training camp. Football is here. Thank you to Stephen Ruiz. Thank you to Isaiah Blakely for producing additional production supervision by Connor Nevins and Arjuna, Ram Gopal.

We'll be back later this week. Appreciate everyone listening. Talk to you next time on The Ringer NFL show.