The Ringer NFL Show - What We Can Learn From Fantasy Football With Evan Silva | The Ringer NFL Show

Episode Date: July 5, 2019

What matters in 2019 in fantasy football, the predictive stats to rely on, the coaches that overhype their players the most, players who will thrive in a new scheme, players to worry about (3:30), under-the-radar RB bargains, how to handle the Patriots’ backfield, sleepers, breakout candidates, and more (20:34). Host: Robert Mays, Kevin Clark Guest: Evan Silva Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Ringer Podcast Network. Our rewatchable spinoff show on Luminary called Rewatchables 1999 is taking a little summer break, but we'll be back in the fall with more movies including eyes wide shut, never been kissed, and more. In the meantime, we're launching a new show on Luminary about another influential moment in 1999 called Breakstuff, the story of Woodstock 99. The pod will dive deep on the iconic music festival and how its success and failures left its mark on history. The series begins on Tuesday, July 9th, and will be coming to you every Tuesday for eight weeks. So make sure to check out Breakstuff, the story of Woodstock 99 on Luminary.

To the ringer NFL show. I'm Robert Mays, joined as always by Kevin. Kevin, how you doing, buddy? I'm doing great. I'm ready to talk about fantasy football. I'm ready for the 4th of July. What a good, I feel like the 4th of July is to start of the NFL season. So to get going on fantasy stuff right now, I think it's perfect. I agree. It's a good time to kind of get your fantasy research started. Everyone's kind of having a quiet week. You know, if you're home with family or You're kind of sitting around in the early parts of the day. You can start kicking around some of the materials that are out there. And one of the new materials that will be out there very soon is establish the run.com led by our good friend, Evan Silva, and a bunch of other people.

And we have the pleasure of welcoming Evan to the show today. Evan, how are you doing? I'm doing really well. This is one of my favorite podcasts to listen to. So I'm abnormally kind of nervous for it because I listen to literally every show that you guys do. And I think that you guys put out amazing content. and I'm privileged. This is a great opportunity.

Thank you so much for asking me to come on. We're so happy to have you. I cannot tell you how much I've read your work over the years. You and I have spent time together. You were very gracious and did my live show with me last year. We raised some money for charity, which I still appreciate. Your matchup columns are an established part of my weekly routine during the season. So the pleasure is all ours, my friend.

I can tell you that. Thanks, man. So we were going to talk about all things fantasy football today, If you cannot predict that with Evan Silva on the show. We're going to talk about fantasy from a big picture perspective in the sense of what fantasy can teach us. We're going to talk about some more specific player driven things, the type of stuff that you will use for your draft.

So, Kevin, why don't you kick us off? What do you want to know first and foremost from Evan about the fantasy world? Yeah. So I'm actually, I have an announcement. I'm going to play fantasy this year. Wow. That is so exciting. This is something we've gone back and forth about for so long.

The last time I played fantasy, I believe, was 2004. Wow. Marshall Falk was a coveted, coveted player. Shocking. Jeremy Shockey went in the second round of that last draft I did. That's all you need to know. So what is the reasoning here? Can you just walk us through very quickly?

Why? Why now? I have some friends who play it, and I feel like it's just a really good way. I'm sorry, let me rephrase that. Everybody I know plays it. But specifically, I have a lot of friends who've been selling me, on it's just a different way to understand the league.

And it's something I want to talk about with Evan here because you monitor things differently throughout the off season. You have a vested stake in it. You and I maze are never going to gamble on the sport just because it just ethically, it's a weird look. Correct. When you're in a locker room after you just lost 75 bucks

on the Seahawks and you're like, Bobby Wagner, what the hell was that? So you never want to end into a situation like that. So I will never, I don't think I ever placed a bet on a game in the NFL. But I feel like fantasy is a little bit more low stakes. So my question for you, Evan, is in 2019, it seems like, you know, maybe the last five years football has just rewritten itself. And the sport changes not just from year to year, but month to month. Monitoring it from a fantasy football perspective, what matters in 2019 that didn't matter five, ten years ago as far as how the league has changed?

Well, I think that we just, there's the analysis of the sport is much, much better. And, you know, it begins with media coverage of the sport. I remember the first year, maybe the second year that I worked at Roto World, I think it was 2005, 2006. There was about a two or three months span where we didn't do a single player news blur from the Raiders. Because I don't even think that, I don't even think anybody was covering the team. Like, I think they were like assigned to go cover, you know, the Golden State Warriors or something. Yeah. And so just the media coverage of the sport itself has grown so much.

And that's largely due to fantasy football. It's largely due to sports betting interests. And I think that, but I think that because of the growth of the coverage of the sport, and now we have people like you guys, and we have people like Josh Hermesmire, we have people like Warren Sharp, we understand what teams are doing better. And in fantasy, and I think that this is especially true in Dynasty Leagues.

I know that Mays plays in at least one Dynasty League. I do. You want to emphasize... That you help me with often. You want to emphasize investing in good teams, organizations that are running at near optimal levels. We've seen that with the Rams and their use of play action. You guys talk about all the time. Investing in them in fantasy over the last two years has been extremely profitable from

any of their receivers to Todd Gurley to Jared Gough. The Patriots have obviously been doing this for years. Last year, the Colts were really good at their play calling decision making. And investing in them was really profitable. Eric Ebron was super chief in Jurassic. He scored 14 touchdowns. Andrew Luck, mostly due to the injury, but he was pretty cheap. He wound up being a great value.

Ty Wyilton battled some injuries, but he led to NFL in receiving yards from weeks 10 through 17. Marlon Mac broke out. The Panthers were another team that was really well coached off. Offensively, Warren Sharp talks about this in his book extensively. They were really aggressive about throwing the ball on first downs. They went from 46% pass rate on first downs in 2017 to 57% last year. So under Norv Turner, they were attacking first down-based defenses with the pass. And when those when those defenses were geared up to stop the run, Christian McCaffrey had a monster season.

and DJ Moore really flashed, even though his playing time was limited. Cam Newton before his arm, unfortunately, fell off. He was the number five overall fantasy quarterback in weeks one through 12. So I think that identifying teams that are doing smart things beforehand is a way that we can get an edge. And because the coverage of the sport has improved so dramatically, in a pretty short time span, we have a better chance to be able to identify those teams.

So I think that one of the things I'm so interested in with the fantasy, just industry in general is it seems like there's such a saturation. There's so much stuff out there right now. And as you're trying to predict how good guys are going to be against all these other people, when you're talking about all this information, what kind of predictive stats have you turned to in the last three or four years that you feel best about

as you're really pointing together your season-long outlook in June, July? Well, we can start a quarterback. Touchdown rate regression is really, really big. And it's really simple. It's just touchdown passes divided by pass. attempts. And quarterbacks tend to regress to their career norms after posting above expectation or below expectation touchdown rates the year prior. Matt Ryan was a great example of this. Of course, he had that monster year in 2016. Well, in 2017, he sharply regressed

in terms of his touchdown rate. He went from like a 7.1% touchdown rate to 3.8% in 2017. and then he became a screaming value in 2018. He bounced back 5.1% touchdown rate. He added 15 touchdown passes to his total from 2017. And he was the number two overall fantasy quarterback. On the flip side, Deshawn Watson, his touchdown rate got chopped nearly in half from his rookie year touchdown rate.

He was a little bit of a disappointment for people who were taking him like in the second round, which is where his ADP wound up. At running back, just sheer volume projection is most important, but Hermesmeyer and Mike Clay have also shown that broken tackle rate is a good predictor of year over year running back success. If you just want to kind of use one stat that shows how good a running back is as a runner, it's broken tackle rate. And obviously, we want our running back to be at least capable of catching passes. And it doesn't matter if you're in a PPR or a non-PPR league. because if you're running back team falls behind,

you want to make sure that that running back is still involved and not getting subbed out for a passing down specialist. This is one of the reasons that I have a hard time getting behind Darius Geist this year because I don't think that the Redskins will be very good. And then when they fall behind, Chris Thompson is going to be on the field. And then at receiver and tight end, we're looking at target volume. We're looking at air yards. We want our receivers and our tight ends to have big target projections,

but we would prefer that they're getting big, play chances down the field. Yards per route run is a bit of an all-encompassing stat here. And it's proven to be really predictive or maybe the most predictive metric that pro football focus produces. Julio has it four years in a row, right? Yeah. I mean, four years in a row, he's led to league in it.

I mean, that's all you need to know. If he's the one leading the league, it's probably a pretty good stat. One of the things, Evan, that I'm impressed with the entire fantasy community, but you in particular, and I think Warren does a great job of this as well, is monitoring the news reports to figure out where a team is going. I mean, I think everybody reads the Devante Parker is ready to break out thing every single spring. And people have to now take it with a grain of salt. But I think you guys do a really good job of cutting through that. How do you monitor those sort of quotes and those clips to help yourself in fantasy? And what is that taught you?

Just in the sense that are there coaches who are just completely full of BS? Are there ones who are more honest than others? Are there teams if they say someone's going to get their bulk of the carries, they mean it and vice versa. Yeah, another good example is every offseason we hear about how much improvement Jordan Howard has made as a receiver. I mean, that's become an annual offseason theme at this point. We're hearing it again in Philadelphia. Putting all the news together, I mean, it's kind of a, you kind of go on a field base.

You really take everything with a grain of salt, you know, and you kind of compile all your data points, you compile your statistical projections, you compile what you know about the coach speak, you know, maybe the coaching history. And you just kind of put it all together and you make an educated guess, I think, or at least that's how I do it. I just, I want to know a bunch of different information. I'm not trying, like when I've really gotten in trouble with projections in the past, it's when I hang on to one statistic or I hang on to one thing that a coach set. You And injury history is another thing that goes into it. When I've made my best projection, I have used like six, seven, eight different data points to drive what is at the end of the day going to be a decision, whether it's who am I going to draft, am I going to trade for this guy, how much am I going to spend on this guy in the waivers process or with your free agent budget?

you know, it's just trying to use a bunch of different data points to arrive at the best decision I could possibly make. Evan, who's the most BS-filled coach? Oh, man, that's a tough one. I don't even know. What would be some ideas from you guys? Well, so in the past, I don't know if he's still doing it.

In the past, John Gruden is just A-0-1. I mean, and I would also say Rex Ryan was like this too, where it's like August 5th and he's putting somebody in Canton and then they just get cut in the first wave of cuts. I would say those two guys in my experience, especially when Gruden was in Tampa, he would just hype up guys all the time.

I mean, you know, third receivers. Some guys will be honest about some things and then, you know, dishonest about other things where they may even actually believe what they're saying at the time and then they proved to be false because that's just the way the season goes. So I don't know.

that would actually be an interesting kind of study to go back and, you know, just look at as many quotes as you could from each coach and be like, hey, you know, this guy kind of tells the truth. Yeah. Sometimes and this guy does it. You know, I remember like Sean Peyton kind of got this reputation for being, you know, not a liar, but an exaggerator, I guess, when he was really talking up CJ Spiller one off season. And then, you know, a couple off seasons later, he started talking up Michael Tom. Michael Thomas. Yeah, I remember that. And people were like, oh, well, we can't trust him because he talked up C.J. Spiller.

We should have trusted Sean Payton about Michael Thomas. Yeah, it's really fascinating. I think a lot of times you actually have to figure out. I remember with Rex Ryan specifically, I remember being a Jets camp, and he was talking, I think he was talking up David Clowney. And then the special teams coach, Mike Westoff, at the same time, was like, yeah, David, I'm like, I made the team. You know what I mean?

Like, it's, it's, it's, you have to, you have to almost pit them again. to other and figure out who's telling the truth when you're just, you know, looking for a late round flyer based off of what a coach says or what a position coach says? A big coach speak thing last year was, oh man, Ron Rivera and even North Turner got laughed at about this. They both said that Christian McCaffrey was going to be a bell cow back. Yeah.

You know, they were like 25 to 30 touches per game. And really much of the football cognizente were lasting at them. But if you would have followed that coach speak, you know, you really would have been in a good position at that time. Yeah, it happens. Absolutely. So that's why you just have to make it kind of a small part of your process. Definitely should be a part of your process, but it should be a pretty small one, you know, and adding it into the rest of what you believe about a player. The thing was with Christian McCaffrey at the time that those coaches said that, you know, he was like a third round pick in fantasy. And but by the end of the, but then we saw how they were using him in preseason.

That was another data point that we had to add to our process. You know, he jumped up into like the late first where, where he belonged. He actually belonged at the top of the first. So Evan, I have every year when I go into my draft prep, I always have a few kind of archetypes of players that I typically try to find and that they come up every year seemingly and that's why I try to hit it over and over. One is just kind of the scheme change guy who's going to be helped the most by a coaching change.

looked by past production that's almost irrelevant now. Another is kind of that mid-round running back that was drafting the third or fourth round that could be the starter on his team by the end of the year. Another guy is kind of the target share shift guy. Somebody leaves, he's going to step into a new role. Again, past production is not necessarily indicative. Another guy is the kind of the post-type second year receiver that we're just not thinking enough about. So as you go through kind of those guys, let's start with the scheme change guys. Who that changed coaches this year do you think is going to get the biggest, it's going to make the biggest leap is going to get the biggest boost by

having somebody new in their calling plays. Oh, I think this is a real, real easy one. It's David Johnson. Because he's going to go from an offense that, like, utilized bunch formations to an offense that's going to play a four-wide air-rate threat attack. I mean,

you could not get a bigger, you know, a starker contrast between what Mike McCoy was doing and what we at least expect Cliff Kingsbury to do. I mean, it's going to increase the space on the field. Another big thing was how fast Cliff Kingsbury played at Texas Tech over his six years there. They ran the most plays per game in all of college football, whereas last year,

the Cardinals finished 32nd in offensive plays per game. We're going to get a lot more opportunity. We're going to get a lot more space for him. And I loved how Cliff Kingsbury was so good about just getting these guys and run after catch chances, getting the ball out of the quarterback's hands quickly and getting the ball to these guys who can make plays after the catch, especially on the interior. You know,

you go back and look at the guys that really had big seasons in Cliff Kingsbury's offense in that Texas Tech, it began with Jay Samarro playing on the interior at tight end. And then it was guys you played the slot like Jakeem Grant and Kiki QT. and, you know, as a running back in DeAndre Washington, and Cliff Kingsbury was always really good about getting the ball to his best players,

and David Johnson is the best player on the card. The only thing that worries me about him slightly is only that we haven't seen him get the workload solely within that offense. We haven't seen Kingsbury lean on him. So I totally agree with you, and especially the Sean Clugoo thing, I think, is a huge point. You know, I've made it a couple times on this show. You look at how well that running game was orchestrated last year in Denver. He comes in as the offensive line coach in Arizona, now. The only thing that would worry me, and this is a very small thing, would be if they kind of

rotate Chase Edmonds in, if T.J. Logan gets snaps as a receiver. I don't think that's going to happen, but it's really the sole factor that would give me the slightest bit about doubt about David Johnson. Otherwise, I'd be hammering him right now. I totally agree with you. And they have talked to Chase Edmonds a little bit too early on. And I was talking to my buddy Rich Rebar at Lord Reeves on Twitter this past weekend. He's like, I'm taking Chase Edmonds in every single draft because, you know, you could get him in like the 17th or 18th round of every single draft. And if this guy carves out, you know, seven to nine touches per game, or if David Johnson goes down, I mean, Chase Edmonds could be a league winner. Is there someone who's the

reverse, Evan, in the sense that maybe his situation, her as coach, is going to depress his numbers this year that you're maybe on panic watch a little bit as far as a top, top guy? A little concern about Levi-on belt, you know. His volume projection, because, I mean, he's got a chance at like 350 touches. And if he gets 350 touches and he stays healthy, then he's going to be just fine, you know, probably better than fine. But, man, he's got a long list of red flags. First of all, we talked to earlier about plays per game. Adam Gates in Miami, I mean, that was a team that ranked bottom, you know, right at the bottom of the league every year in offensive plays per game.

So, look, we want more offensive plays per game because we. score more fantasy points when our, you know, our offense is on the field more. And, you know, the whispers about, I guess it wasn't even whispers. It was like confirmed that Adam Gase didn't want to sign. Lavion Bell. You know, it's probably not that big a deal in the end, but it's not something that I want to hear. You know, his weight kind of ballooned during his season away from the game allegedly. You know, he ran behind one of the best offensive lines in the league for five years. in Pittsburgh, which I definitely think, you know, allowed him to be so patient. Last year, the Jets' offensive line was 32nd, deadlock in adjusted line yards at football

outsiders, a run-blocking metric. And their only significant off-season addition was Colacci Oscemole, who, you know, I think we all love, or at least we used to love, but he's, you know, he's on the wrong side of 30 now. He's coming off a career worst year. And in Labion Bell's final season with the Steelers, he set a four-year low in yards per carry, four-year-low in yards per touch. He was 26th in Pro Football Focus Elusive rating, a metric that deals with breaking tackles. He was 11th, 3rd, and 7th in the three prior years.

So, D.E was starting to show, I think, some signs of decline. Maybe the year off will, you know, bring him back with the fresh legs narrative. but he's in a much worse situation now than he ever was in Pittsburgh. So every year it seems like there's that mid-round running back who can kind of make you a lead winner. Alvin Kamar was that guy, Kareemhunt was that same guy in the same draft class. You know, we've seen other players kind of step into that role. I know who you're going to say, but why don't you throw out a couple names outside of Daryl Henderson for who you think that guy can be this year?

in terms of like sleepers like through in the middle through late rounds running back i think that latavius murray is pretty interesting the saints gave him a four-year 14 million dollar deal not not that big but also not insignificant i think he's got a chance at double-digit touchdowns in the mark ingram role last year mark ingram averaged over 13 touches per game um one of the best offensive lines in the league the saints were turned forward of five starters from an offensive line that last year ranked number two in adjusted line yards. And their loss was Max Unger, who kind of took a step back. And then, but they doubled down and they signed Nick Easton to a pretty good deal.

And then they drafted Eric McCoy out of Texas A&M, who was kind of supposed to be a first round pick. They got him in the second. So I think they're going to be in good shape at center that they have become more, you know, increasingly run heavy in recent years since they've gotten better on defense. And I think that they're going to increasingly become more run heavy going forward. You know, Drew Bree showed some signs of decline in the second half of last season. And, you know, I talked to Sean Payton at the Combine. And...

Love this. Inside Info. It was very late at night, by the way. I've heard this story. Yeah, yeah. And he was pretty, pretty adamant that, you know, Alvin Camara is just not a guy that he wants to be carrying the load. And, you know, if you go back to Mark Ingram's 2017 season, he was right around like 16, 17, 18 touches per game. And no one really wants to draft Latavius Murray. He seems kind of boring.

But, man, he is going from the Vikings offensive line to the Saints offensive line. line. And he's also been a guy that multiple coaching staffs have identified as a player they want to give the ball to on the goal line. He has 53 carries inside the 10 yard line over the past three seasons. That's one of the highest totals in the league. Evan, you know, you mentioned it's really interesting because you mentioned Sean Payton and maybe not wanting Kamara to be that guy. Is there anyone whose usage rates of players are so illogical? You can, you almost have to stay away from the team. I mean, all right, yeah. So I know what you're talking about, definitely with Mike, with Mike Shanahan, especially with the Redskins. Yeah. Is it the Patriots?

Is it not the Patriots? The Patriots are good ones. It might be the Patriots. Yeah. It might be the Patriots because, especially with the addition of Damien Harris. Yeah. You know, and, I mean, it seemed clear like in February, you know, coming off the Super Bowl that Sony Michelle was kind of going to be the guy entering his second season.

I mean, he kind of earned that, you know, He was a guy who averaged over 18 carries per game over his last 10, scored a ton of touchdowns, was really, really good. Again, one of the best offensive lines in the league in New England. But he has a setback with his knee. You know, he needs the scope. And, you know, the Patriots are smart. They're probably going to ease him in.

So now we have James White is the clear cut passing now and back. We still have Rex Burkhead who is going to be active on game days because he's so good on special teams. Brandon Bolden is going to be active on on game days because he's so good at special teams. And now we have the third round pick, Damien Harris, and we have this banged up Sony Michelle. But in past years,

it really has been an edge. The biggest edge to approaching the Patriots backfield has been to draft the cheapest running back. In 2017, that was with Garrett Blunt, who led the NFL in rushing times. touchdowns. Or I'm sorry, was that

2016? It seems like forever ago. But it was Legerick Blunt. You could get him like in the 11th round last year.

People were kind of down on James White. He wound up being the best pick. I'm sorry. It was 2016 Lagaret Blunt. 2017 was

Dionne Lewis, who was a league winner at the end of the season. Yeah. And no one wanted Dion Lewis that year.

And then this past year it was James White. A lot of people didn't want him. So, and people were really high on Rex Burkhead. Like, Rex Berkett was going like the fifth, sixth round. James White was going in like the ninth or three. So who is the cheapest Patriots running back this year? It's actually probably Burkhead, but I think right now Damien Harris is in a better position to have a big season than Rex Burkhead, look at the draft

capital, and he's going like in the ninth or tenth round. The other one I would say this year, if it's the Memorial Shanahan Award is his offspring. Because predicting what's going to happen with that scope position group, good fucking look. Yeah. I would hit where Dante Pedis is going right now, I just think he's really good. And I'd still take him there, even if people are assuming he's going to win that job. But even if you think Tevin Coleman is going to be the number one, in quotes, back there, who the hell knows how those snaps are going to go?

If Jalen Hurd gets some of them, if Breed gets some of them, I have no idea how that's going to play out. Do you have any feel for who you like there and why? It's just got to be kind of late. You know, there are a drafts where I'll take Kevin Coleman in the seventh round. You know, I'll take a shot on him in the seventh round. I'll take Matt Breda in like the 10th or 11th. I like Matt Breda. I mean, what a warrior's like the Wolverine last year could not get him off the field.

He's playing on one leg. Dr. Chowell last year is like, I don't know how this guy's doing it, you know, but he was out there every single week. Jerich McKinn, apparently not even full go yet in practice. And, you know, Kyle Ushack, of course, is still going to be a factor there. I do like that you mentioned Dante Pettus,

though. He's still pretty cheap. I mean, he's a guy that in early draft, I'm getting a lot of him because, you know, he's priced very affordably. And boy, did he flash down the stretch. And that wasn't even with Jimmy G. You know, that was with Nick Mullins and C.J. And he was another, he's a guy who was really good in the return game in college.

And if you look at a lot of the receivers that aren't necessarily big guys in the league, a lot of them, so many of them had returned success in college, whether it be Deshawn Jackson or C.Y. Hilton or Antonio Brown or Antonio Brown. That's a Steelers thing. Yeah, exactly. Is there anybody else you feel like you're getting a ton of shares of right now that years over and over again in these drafts. You just have them on your team pretty much every single time.

Yeah, Alexander Madison. The Vikings third round pick. 221 pounds. Didn't love them coming out of college, ran like 4, 6, 7 at the Combine. He did come back and run 4-5-5 at Boise State's Pro Day. He averaged under five yards per carry in his college career, just so few big plays.

But I think that he's the grinder back that the Vikings want, first of all, we know that they want to be run heavy. You know, they fired John Bilippo, immediately went run heavy, bringing Gary Kubiak. They use their first round pick on a center. They use their third round pick on like a grinder, 221-pound running back. Dalvin Cook has missed 17 or 32 games through two NFL seasons.

And no one wants to draft Alexander Madison. And this guy should, I mean, I think he's definitely going to slide into the Latavius-Murie role. And I think it could get like 11 to 13 touches per game, chances at the goal line. And then if Dalvin Cook goes down, it's a feature back in a run-heavy offense, you know, with a very good defense on the other side of the ball to keep them in run-friendly situation. Is there a quarterback? Who is the most valuable quarterback from a fantasy perspective right now, not just points, but making receivers' lives easier?

Well, Deshaun Watson obviously does not make life easier on his offense. He makes life harder on his offensive line. But, man, the big time plays, the big time positive plays also make life easier on his receivers because, you know, it gives Yondre Hopkins, you know, an extra a little bit of time to get open and certainly Will Fuller. I mean, Will Fuller has over the past two seasons 11 touchdowns on 60 catches, which is just absolutely absurd. And then TKQQT because of the offensive line issues in Houston,

he was super productive in the five, six or six full games that he played last season. So, you know, there's a lot of give and take with the Sean Watson, but, you know, they don't really throw their back that much in Houston. They don't have a pass catching tight end, really. And to Sean Watson, I think, does make life easier on his receivers. I think that there's something to be said for the fact that he throws such a catchable ball. You know, I really think he throws a catchable ball. And because on the place where he's not getting frigging stacked, you know, he creates time for his receivers to get out.

The fact that you mentioned to Sean Watson and the Will Fuller side of this is so interesting because I find myself, to Kevin's question, I think that the guys like Patrick Mahomes, guys like Ben Rothesburg or guys like even Baker Mayfield are going to be this year. it's not necessarily their own production, but guys that are really willing to throw the ball down the field, stepping outside of what production we've already seen, going into what might happen. So with Baker and Odell or with the Steelers and whoever the number two receiver there is. Do you feel what...

Robsburg got 5,000 yards last year, and he lost his number one receiver. Exactly. So it's one of those things where I just think that aggressiveness and just air yards per target for quarterbacks are helpful in kind of figuring out which secondary guys we want on those. teams, even if we've never even seen those guys play. Is that something that you tend to look at?

Evan, do you really like, let's, in the opposite side of it, Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr, no thank you with the number two receivers on that team. And my off base to think that's a good metric. Yeah, one, no part of Tyro Williams. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. Yeah. But, no, I think there's a lot of truth to that. And especially in Pittsburgh, and make that camp battle for that number two receiver spot. Really, really interesting. I think that Jiu Jus McHuster might lead to NFL in targets this year. First of all, he's number four last year in targets.

And now the Steelers are missing the fifth most targets from last year's team in the NFL. So there's, I mean, this guy could push for 200 targets. You know, it's going to be, it's going to be a lot of balls going Juju Smith-Schuster's way. way. But this is also a team that, you know, in Ben's first year, really running the offense on his own, the Steelers' finish. first in the NFL in offensive in past attempts and fit in offensive plays for game.

So there is plenty of room for another guy to step up. Dante Moncrief has been the guy getting the early buzz. He isn't even 26 years old yet. He's been kind of like an underachiever, but he's got that big time size and speed. And, you know, he's had moments in the past when he's been healthy. When he was healthy, he was a big-time touchdown score with Andrew Luck. James Washington really didn't see a whole lot from him last year after the preseason. He showed something in the preseason, but I think that he never really earned the trust of Ben Rathesberger.

And then Yonte Johnson, who they took in the third round, their history of hitting on wide receiver draft picks makes him interesting. And he's another guy who was exceptional with the ball on his hand. hands in college, maybe the best punt returner in this entire draft. So that camp battle is going to be huge for a lot of the reasons that you mentioned. Hey, Evan, when you look at just the fantasy stuff and just the passing numbers or the receiving numbers or they're rushing numbers, is there a guy, you think, who isn't appreciated enough in the non-fantasy world for the consistency in the numbers he puts up? Certainly over the year.

You know, every year people have predicted his demise. I've been in his camp for the last two, three years, and it's been, it's been, you know, it's been good because you could get him at a really good price. I think that's because every week 16 for the past four years, everybody's like, Larry Fitz might retire. And then we just assume he's going to, the next year is going to be a retirement tour and then he balls out. And it'll be interesting to see how he fits into this new offense because, you know, we've got a new coach there. They draft it in Andy Isabella. They're going to play two slot receivers, right? Andy Isabella and Hakeem Butler both played a lot of slot in college.

And I think that Christian Kirk might be their best optioning overall as a slot receiver. So are we going to see Larry Fitzgerald move outside? I think that this might be the kind of swan song for Larry Fitzgerald. But I would say that he has been very underappreciated. You know, Philip Rivers, guys like that have been really consistent year over year, not really league winning players, but, you know, guys that have been, you know, reliable from season to season. Let's talk about some league winners very quickly here. I think that when you're looking at who you want to draft every year, it's which guys can I get outside of the top 20 and they can end up being inside the top 10?

So at the three big positions, let's start a quarterback. Who do you think outside of the top 20 can end up being a top 10 quarterback? Outside of the top 20. So we're, you know, Mitch for Trubisky is kind of on that fringe. I know you want to hear that. I'm just going to say. Yeah, no, he was, he was, he had spiked weeks until he had that shoulder problem that cost him a couple of games. And he came back and they just, it seemed like they were more hesitant to use him later in the season. But man, he's got incredible running ability. I mean, I think he could be like a starting running back, potentially.

He's that good of a runner. And I think a lot of people are down on him. And I understand because no quarterback in the league, like, throws into crowds. more than Mitchell Trubisky. But, you know, this is the second year in the offense. It's the second year with all these guys. I mean, they revamped their entire past catcher court from year one to year two. And, you know, I've noticed that, or you guys have probably noticed it, too,

that he's been a very popular MVP candidate, at least as a long shot, which I thought was pretty interesting. But, you know, his ascendancy is. is like tangible. And I mean, I think that people are expecting to take a step back. But that doesn't really make sense because his trajectory

improved so much in the first year when you expect the trajectory to continue upward. And their defense probably is not going to be as good as it was last year. And that might put a little bit more on Mitchell Tribeskey's plate.

I just think the rushing is going to be hard to replicate. I mean, if there's a chance that he kind of has a similar impacts in the game rushing-wise, but just the overall volume of it, I think that might be difficult. But I just think that tier of quarterback is so interesting this year because you could talk yourself into a lot of guys in that range because I feel like Dak Prescott, when you're talking about the scheme change guys, has a huge chance to be much better this season and much more

efficient as a pastor than he's ever been. Lamar Jackson is somebody that when you throw in how many chances he gets near the goal line, what that offense is going to look like. I just feel like that and James Winston as well. I think they're going to lead the league in pass attempts. I think they're going to throw the ball a ton. His receivers are good. Their defense is going to be bad. I just feel like there's a lot of quarterback options this year

that you could grab late that could really give you top 12, top 10 production if you get lucky. Absolutely. Lamar Jackson is a guy that I think that people have already written off to some extent as a passer. Like every time that I mention Lamar Jackson on Twitter, it's like, oh, except you can't throw, you know. Cool.

He never needs to throw. Yeah, he doesn't need this, bro. Well, Louisville, he got better as a passer every single year, right? And last year, I mean, he didn't even get first team reps until week 10. I mean, are we really getting judged Lamar Jackson off of, you know, half season of first team reps and, you know, a wide receiver cord that has now been revamped. I love Mark Andrews, by the way. I mean, this dude looks like gronk at times running down the scene.

And that's the guy that. Lamar Jackson returns with having the best rapport in the Ravens Pass Catcher Corps. Marquis Brown loved him coming out of Oklahoma. Hopefully he will be healthy and ready to roll. And then, you know, they're getting back Hayden Hurst, the first round pick as well. And he could probably contribute, you know, of course, in 12 personnel. But I think that with Lamar Jackson, we have like a really high floor. This dude average 20 fantasy points per game as a starter last year.

the quarterback 8 as a starter. And then if he does take a step as a passer, like, look out. And I love the connection with Greg Roman. They got rid of Marty Morningweg. They promoted Greg Roman. This guy has legit history with dual threat quarterbacks. Colin Kaepernick had his best seasons under Greg Roman, and so did Tyrod Taylor. How about running backs?

Anybody in that range in the 18 to 20 range that you feel like has a chance to jump up in the 8 to 10 range? Right now, I think that. Chris Carson is still being under-drafted, and he falls into that range. Damien Williams is another guy who we saw him just explode. He had 10 touchdowns over the Chiefs Final Six games, and it's not like he's going to be able to replicate that pace, but it just goes to show how profitable it can be to have, you know,

to just to be playing in that offense. They're getting back the doctor right guard. Their offensive line is going to be a little bit better. and if they don't have Syrie Kill for any amount of time then they may have to lean on him more as a pass catcher. I think that right now is a guy that's going

in like RB15 to RB20 range Damian Williams, Chris Carson, I think are both pretty interesting picks. Chris Carson just goes way too late because people are worried about Rashad Penny, but that team's going to runs the ball so much that I mean they both could be valuable. You could have Chris Carson as your

RB2 and Rashad Penny as your flex play. And I mean, they can both have good games in the same game. And you're pulling Mike Davis out of the running picture. So it goes from a three-man backfield to a two-man backfield. And Mike Davis leaves behind 34 receptions. And, you know, if Chris Carson and Rashad Penny add, you know, add those receptions to their repertoire, that's going to really help. How about receivers? So 18 to 20 up in the top 10. We mentioned, well, Christian Kirk, I think, is an obvious. breakout candidate. You mentioned Dante Pettis.

DJ Moore goes pretty early. I like his teammate Curtis Samuel, you know, as a third year breakout candidate, ran 4-3-1 coming out of Ohio State. They're 80-plus yards from scrimmage and or a touchdown, eight of 13 games last year.

He's going to have the clear number two role in the offense. This season, which he did not last year. He really was a part-time player until the last six games. And then over the last six games, games, you average 59 snaps per game. I mean, that's, you know, that's a full-time player. And I think that you're going to see him a full season of Curtis Samuel as a full-time

player this year. You could get him like, you know, 11th, 12th round. I like D.D. Westbrook in Jacksonville as a potential, another third-year breakout candidate. Last year, at 101 targets. And the upgrade from Blake Bortles to Nick Foles, I think, is going to be big. You go back and look at Nick Foles' history, throwing the slot receivers. his second most targeted receiver in or pass catcher in Philadelphia was Nelson Agilore. And in 2011, in 2015, 11 starts with the Rams.

His most targeted pass catcher was Tavon Austin. So he's got a history of targeting the slot receiver, Dee Westbrook, gained 90% of his yards on slot routes last year. You know, having a lot of movement these days, Kevin Durant, Kairi Irving. But you shocked the sports world on Sunday night. You were leaving Rotow World. or doing your own thing. Tell us about that and what it's going to look like.

Yeah, so Adam Levittan and I worked at Roto World for five or six years. He left immediately as soon as Fanduil and Draft Kings and the Daily Fantasy and, you know, business started to explode, which is really, really smart. He was able to capitalize on all that. We always wanted to work together again, and we finally got that opportunity. off season. And we started a website called Establish the Run.com.

You could follow us on Twitter at Establish the Run. We brought along with us, Josh Germesmire, who guys have had on the show, and he's, you know, maybe the premier data analyst

in the media when it comes to football. And then we also brought Pat Thorman, who's really on the cutting edge of projecting these snaps and offensive plays that we've been talking about,

you know, as kind of a feature. team of this show. So we're really excited about the team that we put together and the website. And hopefully some people will follow us there. Awesome. I know I certainly will be. Evan,

thank you so much for doing this. I know it's a holiday week. We sincerely appreciate the time. Best of luck with everything. I know we'll be chatting. And to everybody else, thank you guys so much for listening. Enjoy your holiday.

Have a beer. Have a hot dog. Watch some baseball. Do some American stuff. and we'll be back next week with our next big picture show. All right, thanks guys. Awesome, dude.

Thanks so much having.