The Ringer NFL Show - When Is It Time to Blow It Up?

Episode Date: December 8, 2021

Kevin is joined by ESPN analyst and former NFL executive Mike Tannenbaum to discuss how a franchise changes directions, how teams look at the draft as a guidepost when making decisions, and how a coach like Bill Belichick affects the strategy of his opponents (1:14). Then, analyst Brad Spielberger and reporter Steven Ruiz hop on to play a game of “Who Can Blow It Up?” as they go through teams in the league and decide who they’d replace (21:47).  Host: Kevin Clark Guests: Mike Tannenbaum, Brad Spielberger, Steven Ruiz Associate Producer: Erika Cervantes Producer: Arjuna Ramgopal Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Ringer Gambling Show is here to help you place your bets on the biggest sports around the world. Join NFL analyst Warren Sharp on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays with guests Chris Vernon, Ben Solac, and Joe House to guide you through the NFL betting landscape. Each week, they'll cover everything from spreads, game totals, and parlays, to player props, futures, post-game reactions, and more. Check out the Ringer Gambling Show on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It is the Ringer NFL show, part of the Ringer Podcast Network. I am Kevin Clark.

Awesome, awesome show today with one big theme. Who should blow it up? I'm joined by Mike Tannenbaum, ESPN analyst, 33rd team, former executive of the Jets and Dolphins to discuss not only kind of how teams approach rebuilds and what they, what questions they ask themselves heading into December, but also we go around the league, talk about Belichack, talk about the bills, talk about the run game in the NFL, a lot of really interesting stuff. And then Stephen Ruiz and Brad Spielberger from Profable Focus, join me to talk about individual franchises

and kind of play franchise doctor and figure out exactly what these teams should do with a handful of franchises. So let's get to Mike. All right, joined now by ESPN analyst Mike Tannenbaum, also a former Jets and Dolphins executive. Thank you for joining us, Mike. What's going on, bud? Hey, Kevin, great to be with you. I'm here to get Twitter Sarcasm 101. I thought that's what this workshop was all about.

It's a workshop. Yeah, I'm going to teach you how to be really snarky and just, yeah, we'll do that for 30 minutes. It'll be great. We won't learn anything about football. The listener will be extremely excited to learn about that, right? Exactly. So the theme of this episode, we actually are going to lean on your football expertise and not my snark expertise. The theme of this episode that we want to explore a little bit is when is a time to blow it up?

And I think that right now going into the last few weeks of the season, entering December, there's a lot of teams that figure out, hey, we need to we need to sort of see where our franchise is going. We need to understand, do we need a new quarterback, a new coach, a new GM, all of the ability. above overhaul the roster, whatever it is. I'm curious, Mike, when teams are looking around right now, what kind of questions do they ask themselves before figuring out how to pivot? Well, you know, it's interesting because Kevin, if we were talking about the starting quarterback, if we were talking about a long sapper, head coach, even a GM,

one of the threshold questions you have to ask somebody is, when you're sitting down with ownership or whomever, is, okay, we're not happy with What's going on with that said, who are we going to get and how much is that person going to cost? And what I mean by that, it could be, you know, now look, when I say that, I'm not saying like we're going to go trade multiple picks where I head coach, but I'm saying like, you know, if you're not happy with the quarterback, you're not happy with your coach, whatever it may be, it's always easy. I always told the staff, like, hey, don't come in here with the problem, come in here with the solution. So if you think player X, Y, or Z is not getting the job done, no problem. Who are we going to get and how much are they going to cost? Is it a draft choice?

Right. Are we signing them? And likewise, like those are sort of like the inflection points you need to have when you're deciding about transformational decisions. It's interesting. I had this conversation on the Collegraudor-Risillo on Monday's podcast. And he was talking, he was asking me if teams like Philadelphia and Miami are going to talk themselves into giving another year of their quarterback, not going into the

draft because they're playing well. they had a little bit of a hot streak. And my feeling on this is because it's a weak quarterback class, maybe they do do that. And, you know, if there was a, the reason Josh Rosen was able to be traded in, but the Cardinals is because Kyler Murray was there. How much do teams look at the draft and,

especially this time of year and say, okay, the quarterback class is weak and we'll sort of guide, we'll do that on that, we'll use that as a guidepost. Or do they make a decision in a different way? Well, I think it's more of a sort of like evergreen approach Kevin from this standpoint, which is, I think, and there were times in my career, I thought I made some really good decisions. And there were times where candidly, like I and our organization fell short. Great example was Ryan Tannahill, when he got hurt, we had a really good team in Miami.

We had gone to the playoffs, felt good about our team coming back. He had a season-ending pre-season injury. And we had to go out and get Jay Cutler, the Fox broadcast booth. And the reason I bring that up is, I think it's sort of like a, an approach that's like, you know, it's a journey that you never completely finish. And I'll give Philadelphia a ton of credit for all the things that's been talked about, you know, be it the Carson Winston trade, drafting Jalen Hertz. Maybe the best move they've made, the best value is Gardner Minchu. Gardner Minchu, to me, at his salary is unbelievably valuable. And to get him for a six-round pick, and to give you a couple of examples, now, granted, the Jets aren't playing great defense.

right now, but they go on the road, they get a road when he plays well. Colt McCoy goes on the road, gets two road wins as the backup for Arizona, and then the Giants trot out Mike Glennon to go play a good Miami defense. So the point being is, I don't think it's sort of like this like binary fork in the road, like quarterback, no quarterback. I think it's more of a mindset and the verb is scour. You want to be scouring for quarterbacks. And give Philadelphia credit of all the moves they made, in my opinion, Minchu may be the one that's the most valuable and sort of like cost effective. My boss Bill Simmons, who loves Gardner Minchew, will be very, very happy to hear that

particular. With Miami in particular. What would it take to get Bill Simmons to follow me? I've called him out. I mean, what would it take for him to actually follow me? I think you're at the right track with this Gardner Minchew takes, to be honest with you. My dog's name was Larry. I mean, what other card can I play here, Kevin? I'm telling you some Patriots takes and some Minchu takes and then you're on the right track. With Miami in particular, Mike,

I commend them for figuring out what Tula can do well. I don't know if it's sustainable, but he's completing a bunch of passes in their winning games. Is this sustainable the kind of thing you try to commit to long term? Yeah, that's a tough one for me, Kevin,

because there are things he's doing really well. I do a weekly quarterback rankings for ESPN. He's made up to like 15, and he was really close to the bottom at the beginning of year. You know, the good news is they're winning. The good news is his completion percentage is literally through the roof. He's not getting the ball down the field. And, you know, if you and I know where the ball is going right now, clearly the opposing defensive coordinator is going to know as well.

He's going to need to get the ball. Now, they can get the ball down the field with Mike Kiske and Jalen Waddle and Devon Parker. So they do have players that can do that. And if I'm Miami, I don't think it's really about Kevin, hey, do they make the playoffs this year or not? Because where they are, it really, in my opinion, it doesn't matter if they win seven games or nine games or eight games. But I think what is important is for them to say, hey, you know what? We could go and win a lot with two at Tonga Loa and we're not going to look back and we're going to take our resources and plow it into, you know, whatever, the offensive line or other places running back.

So I think that's what's really most consequential. And I think if you and I were having this conversation for a week from now, it's a little bit of, you know, what Coach Belichick says about good football. Like you know it when you see it. And he has taken meaningful steps, Kevin, but I still would give it a great thing complete because you just don't see, you know, some of like these other guys, the Josh Allen, the Justin Herbert's of the world that can really be full field quarterbacks.

Interesting. I want to get to the Belichick thing in a second here, but I want to ask one more question about kind of how a franchise changes directions. I want to ask about the Vikings because they've had success under Mike Zimmer. They've had success with Kirk Cousins and they've had success under Rick Spielman. But it feels like they're running its course. And I guess the question is, when do you sort of know, okay, we've reached our ceiling? And what would you do if you were a wolf in Minnesota right now? Yeah, that's a harder one to me. me because part of the to just be candid is you're looking at the passers and saying like Wednesday I graduate you know this past year they went out they attacked their defense drafted Patrick Jones in third round signed Patrick Peterson they really try to revamp a defense on really on all levels and it's obviously been with you know mixed results Mike Zimmer's been there a long time I think part of it is you have to say yourself hey

We're going to move forward with Mike Zimmer and we're going to give him a five-year extension. And if we have to do something with Kirk cousins and his cap number, because to me, you can't have the conversation with Kirk and not talk about the value because I think he is a good player. I just don't know if the value is appropriate. Like, would I rather, and this is extreme, but would I really have Garden and Minchu at a million dollars or Kirk Couss at 30 million? Like, again, that shows you the brilliance of that Philadelphia trade. that to me is where I struggle a little bit with Kirk is I think he's been a really good player I don't think he's great and you have to say to yourself like can Mike Zimmer

Kirk Cousins gets to where we want to go and candidly if Aaron Rogers graduates Kevin that discussion probably looks a little bit different right right I mean that was the biggest inflection point of the entire offseason was was whether I mean that changes everybody's destiny the bears look smarter the Vikings look smarter the lions look smarter Anybody in the NSE looks smarter if Aaron Rogers than there to beat them one or two times a year. I want to swing around. You mentioned the Belichick thing earlier. So Belichick basically has Mac Jones throw three times on Monday.

And it felt like just emotionally the bills took a step back. You saw McDermott talk about Belichick after the game. You saw some of the players get really mad at reporters. And it was almost like I felt like they. I hesitate to use this terminology, but I kind of feel like the Patriots remain in the Bill's head. And I think everybody in the AFC East has had Belichick in their head for 20 years. And I feel like that it's easy to put that switch back on. You were in a division with Bill Belichick for a long, long time.

What is it like to be around, you know, and play him and have him expose any weaknesses your franchise have, out coaching your coaching staff on a lot of different levels. Just take me through what it's like to build a team when you know Bill Belichick is building a team to be. Yeah, there's a lot there. And I agree with so much of what you said. I said a couple of things on the air yesterday, Kevin. Well, for me, I was very fortunate. I work for coach twice in Cleveland and at the Jets.

They compete against them for over 20 years. And candidly, I was always like extremely motivated. you get into this business, you have to be intrinsically motivated to work the hours that you do out of club. So I would like to think one of my strengths is I'm a very motivated person. Like, I'm going to get up in the morning and like get after it and whatever we're doing. And I just felt like, wow, what a great opportunity to compete against the best every day. Like I was like enthralled by that challenge. And look, the record's out there for everybody.

Like he won more than the teams I was with. And we did okay as well, got to the playoffs a number of times. It was very fulfilling when we got there to know that, hey, like we're going against Tom Bray and Bill Belichick, we should feel good about what we're doing. And we got a long way to go. And I felt the same thing between Jordan Poyer, Micahad, and Sean McDermott. I thought they all said something very similar, like, which was we expected to win and we're shocked we lost. And the other thing that was hugely interesting to me after the game was when Bill Belichick said, And every word that comes out of his mouth is a thousand percent calculated.

He's like, we've played in windier conditions, way windier. And I think what he was saying was like, yeah, we ran the ball because we could run the ball. We didn't have to throw. And that's what his message was, which to me, like Kevin, we could spend the next three hours of, you know, why that happened. I have a lot of thoughts about that. But the point fundamentally is there's nothing worse in pro football. and it happened to the bills against the Colts. And it happened this past wedding night

that you knew they were going to run it. We knew they were going to run it. Eli Manning knew they were going to run it. And they took him. Are you worried now long term about the 2021 bills? Yeah. Because here's, Kevin, if you and I can be anywhere in America today, you grew up in Orlando, we should just go west of that to Tampa.

And Byron left, which is off with office, because he's the offensive coordinator of the Buccaneers. They're going to play the bills. and they have Tom Brady, but I wonder if they're sitting there saying, you know what, look what Indy did, look what the Patriots did. We're going to put Fournet out there. We're going to put Gronk in the backfield, and we're going to put seven offensive linemen out there, and let's try the same thing. And if you can't stop the running pro football, Kevin, nothing else matters. I want to get to the run game point there, but I actually want to ask you one follow up with the Belichick thing.

Is there a game that you remember? I guess outlined the best coaching job that he's ever done against one of your teams where you were just like, come on, man. How is this happening? What are you doing here, bro? Like, give me that game. Yeah, this one took a couple years off my life. On the opening day of 2008, we play, ironically, I'm at the Jets.

We play the Dolphins. We had traded for Brett Farb. and we cut Chad Payton. Chad signs with the dolphins. So an opening day, for me, it's a very difficult and challenging situation. So we have Farrv. We go down in Miami. We beat Miami in a very close, one sort of like score game.

As that game is going on, Tom Brady tears his ACL in their home opener against the Chiefs. And we, too, our home opener at the Jets with Brett Favre is against the new. England Patriots and Matt Castle. We have beat Miami. We have Farr. Brady's out for the year. It's like, oh, my God. Like, the stars are finally aligning.

And they beat us. And I'm thinking myself, like, it was like, it was the worst feeling in the world, Kevin, because I'm like, they have Matt Castle. We have Brett Fark. Man, unbelievable. I mean, and that's, you know, I think I did a story on that a couple years ago.

Ronnie Harrison said that was, that year was his best coaching job, Belichick's best coaching job. And didn't even change the offense that much. they added a couple boots, but like he just rolled out there and they did what they did. The run game to me is interesting because you're starting to see it in New England. I think that they're running more in kind of neutral situations than anybody except San Francisco in Baltimore. If I saw that stat correctly, you're seeing teams like Cleveland who are just running the ball really effectively.

And there were a lot of smart people, Mike, who over the last decade said, you know what, defense is getting smaller, they're getting more spread out. And at some point, the run game is going to come back. and I had heard that and then it kept getting more and more and more pass heavy as a league and I wondered if those people were wrong and I'm curious if you think that the kind of the run game renaissance, whatever you want to call it,

is a blip on the radar because there's subpar quarterback play or whatever or this is part of a longer term trend. Yep, so we're putting out a piece on the 33rd team on Friday, 333.com about exactly this, Kevin, because you take it a step further. There's a lot of defensive players that never faced fullbacks. I mean,

Tremaine Emmons is a good football player. It was really clear that he was having trouble with his run fits. So I think it's the smart coaches, the game plan specific coaches. Like, I'm just telling you, like Bill Belichick told us everything we needed to hear, which was we were prepared to throw the ball.

We didn't have to. And the smart coaches are going to be that way. Frank Reich said after the game, it was, I think, an Albert Breers column on the money after that. He called 19 consecutive runs on first and second down when they played the bills because they couldn't stop Jonathan Taylor. So when you look at Nick Siriani evolved during the year, you look at Nick Saban. Nick Sabins has stayed balanced all through his great run.

And obviously what's going on in Michigan, you know, Hassan Haskins, Blake Horm, you know, they got two great backs. So I think it's, I don't know if it's sort of this sort of like, you know, declaration like the run is back. I think it's, look, we just talked about Nick Sevin, Bill Belichick, Jim Harbaugh, Frank Wright. Those are smart coaches that have an understanding that you don't have to be dogmatic. And if Tremaine Edmonds is having trouble with his run fits against Jacob Johnson, like, we're going to run it again. And the thing that was crazy to me was like going back to Monday night for second, Kevin. like the personnel groupings with like Enchial Harry

they weren't even trying to fake it it wasn't like they went like empty and then motioned the back back they didn't like you know reverses misdirection like most of it was like downhill gap power pull the guard like

it was like it was shocking in its simplicity it wasn't like sort of like this trickum jet sweep you know know, reverse motion. And I think, you know, Jim Harbaugh, to me, is probably the closest in the mindset, along with Frank Wright.

Like, Jim Harbaugh is like, yeah, we're running the ball. Here we come. Yeah. Yeah. No, it's fascinating. Okay. So let's swing around a league here for a second. The parody this year has been amazing.

I think every team in the AFC has four losses, which I think is a record for this time of year for, for the AFC. Is this a coincidence? is this because, I've heard a bunch of different theories, but where would you go on this and why some of these great teams are not nearly as great this year? You know, Kevin, as of today, 21 teams are about 500, which is really remarkable.

One of the X factors, in my opinion, is coming out of COVID, home field advantage isn't the same. Like, Arizona's only losses right now are at home, which is insane. And I think, and look, I think this is more about society. I think we're slowly but surely getting back to normal. And I think part of that is, like, to me, one of the most remarkable games is Cole McCoy goes into Seattle and wins. Like in normal life, like, you know, you can't win in Seattle.

It's, you know, it's rabid. So I think that's a big X factor that maybe isn't being calculated. Interesting, interesting. Last thing for you, Mike, I wonder about building around young quarterback. And I want to hone in on Jacksonville because Trevor Lawrence, I think has one touchdown pass in Tyler. It seems real bad down there.

When you're dealing with a young quarterback, how do you make decisions as far as, I mean, I got to be honest with me, if I'm an owner in Jacksonville, I'm thinking of moving on from Merrimire, I just don't see it at this point. But when you're dealing with a young quarterback who's struggling, how do you diagnose the problems?

And what have you seen out of Lawrence? You know, what's interesting is, like, the tape matches the stats, like statistically, you know, he is right now last of the NFL in, it's really, it's shocking in completion percentage. He's 28th in QBR and

he's in any meaningful statistic it's bad and when you watch a tape it matches it. And one of the things I learned from Adam Gase working with, like some of the stories he told me about working with Peyton. You think about like the great Peyton Manning and what I'm

about to say will give you great context was there were some games where Peyton would be like, hey, you know what, we need a couple of completions here. Like I'm not in rhythm. I'm not confident. Our office is sputtering. Like we got to get rolling out.

Like let's just get a couple of completions. And that's from Peyton Manning, Kevin. And when you watch them play, sometimes you wonder like, you know, Urban's finding his way. Trevor Lawrence is finding his way. I think part of it is they're just calling plays.

Like I think they got to build confidence. And maybe it's, you know, earlier in the game, easier completion. and to me, and we talked about already, Kevin, I would not have moved off from Gardner Minshue. Not to say that there's quarterback competition, but what I would say is to have another young guy

who has a lot of juice, like I think he would have been part of the solution. And I'm just concerned that how they're building the team, I wouldn't have franchised Cam Robinson. I wouldn't have taken a running back in the first round. And those things are concerning. That's not to say that they can't be concerned, competitive long term.

But I just don't like some of the moves they made because I don't think it accentuated what he does great. And you can find running backs outside of the first round. And Cam Robinson was a guy that was struggling. All right, Tannenbaum, ESPN, 33rd team. Thanks for joining us, buddy. Appreciate you having me. Thank you.

All right, now we're going to play a game and we're bringing in two really smart people. Stephen Ruiz, my colleague. What's going on, bud? I'm doing great. How are you doing? I'm doing good. Brad Spielberg,

from Pro Football Focus. He's a salary cap analyst. He's an R&D analyst, which is the title we got to give Stephen Ruiz. We got to work on that. We'll talk to Bill. We'll give him the R&D analyst position. I demand it. I demanded. What research would you be doing? I would research Joe Burrow's arm strength. Joe Burroughs, all the weak armed quarterbacks, Joe Burrow, Mac Jones. Those are really the only two. All right. We're going to play a game called who should blow it up. And I don't, we can go in many different directions here. I'm going to give. you the option to do whatever. We're going to play franchise doctor. You can get rid of everybody. You can get rid of the coach, the GM, the quarterback, just overhaul the roster. Doesn't matter. You can do anything short of making somebody sell the team. Does not matter. We're going to start with Brad, Minnesota Vikings. Yeah. So are we going step by step with the quarterback, coach, GM, and tear down or rebuild? How do you want to go about it? No, you have the option. You have the option. If it's a total blow up, then it's a total blow up. All right. So starting

with Minnesota Vikings. I'm going to trade Kirk Cousins to the Pittsburgh Steelers. I'm clear $35 million there. He's entering the last year of his deal. I just think the entire point of Kirk Cousins was you're chasing the 2017 NFC championship game with Case Keenum. And that window's closed. The defense was elite. It's no longer elite. It's probably going to get even worse if they lose the Neil Hunter. So trading Kirk Cousins, which starts the entire firestorm. I'm going to also fire Mike Zimmer. I have a ton of respect for Mike Zimmer. His numbers, I I pulled this for the show on third down, even the last two years, he still allows the lowest EPA per play in the NFL on third down. Obviously, you know, you can't attribute things to a coach specifically, but he coaches that defense and somehow is still the best third down coach in the NFL.

I'm going to keep Rick Spielman, which I know is probably going to be controversial, especially with some of my ties. But nevertheless, I think he is one of the best general managers in football. He has not gotten the quarterback position right. part of that because Teddy Bridgewater's leg exploded when he was kind of becoming a good quarterback. You take all that context into account. And the fact he's been successful never having elite quarterback play, I think suggests you give him another shot. Maybe Kellyn Mon turns into something, probably not. And so, yeah, I am still going to go tear down now.

I'm getting rid of everyone letting Daniel Hunter go or trading him, you know, maybe even finding other trades for a guy like an Adam Thiener or something like that. and just starting over with Justin Jefferson, Christian Derisaw, and the rest will figure out. Stephen Ruiz, Minnesota Vikings. I agree with everything Brad said up until him keeping Spielman around. I'm sorry, I'm firing him too. He gets to leave with Kirk and Zimmer. And my issue is, okay, the most important position is the quarterback position. And he's had a lot of cracks at the quarterback position.

Since he's been a prominent member of the front office, they've used three first-round picks on them on quarterbacks. Christian Ponder, I think he's. was like president of personnel or something at that point but obviously teddy bridgewater who his knee did explode but are we sure that teddy was ever going to become that type of quarterback like a second contract quarterback i don't know about that and then obviously the trade for sam bradford which i thought was just a panic trade in reaction to the bridgewater injury and then the other problems with this team there was no thought by the way there was no thought it was it was a panic trade yeah that's not an opinion that's a fact and then the offensive line has been a problem since he's been

there and he's poured a lot of resources into it, especially at the top of the draft, and it still is a problem. You could say the same thing about the secondary right now. They've used first round picks when people thought they probably should have drafted another position. The secondary is still a problem. Maybe some of that falls on Zimmer, not developing players, but I tend to agree with Brad. Zimmer's one of the better defensive coaches in the league. So I got to put it on the front office, and I'm going to say Spielman has to go either. I think he's an above average GM. I think Zimmer's an above average coach, but there comes a time when you just have to, like, look around the room and realize we need to move on.

We need another start. Hey, is there anybody outside of Jefferson and Derisal that you would try to keep on the roster, build around Stephen, to Brad's point? I mean, I think the younger players have promise and they have talent. The issue with me is they have money tied up in spots where I don't know if you want money tied up. Like Harrison Smith is a great safety, but he's still a box safety, a strong safety. I don't want to be paying that guy. Like having a good, strong safety is very valuable,

but not if you're paying a premium for it. And they're doing the same at linebacker with Eric Kendricks. Like, it's all over the roster. So that's my main issue with how the roster is constructed right now. And that's why I would want to move on from Spielman. All right. Kansas City Chiefs. I'm kidding.

All right, Chicago Bears, Brad's Spielberger. Yeah, so we're blowing them out the kingdom come. What Circey Lancer did to the sept of Baylor is not enough. for what we should do to the Chicago Bears at this point. Although, yeah, we're keeping Justin Fields. Obviously, we're worshipping Justin Fields and helping him in any way we can. But, yeah, Matt Nagy was supposed to be fired already, apparently not, but he'll be on the way out.

And GM Ryan Pace, it could be funny because he might leave them with Justin Fields and potentially two starting tackles, and Larry Bourne and Kevin Jenkins will see how he is once healthy. But just too many mistakes over the years, too many poor contracts given out, trading up every single draft and kind of rarely hitting on those early. picks. I do think he's a great fifth, six round. We hear that a lot. He does find gems, but that's not how you sustain a franchise. And they're in a bad spot. So everybody, pace and nobody. Everybody's gone. And you're tearing down. I'm not going to say like trade to L. Mac, but you're not resigning Akeem Hicks. You're exploring, you know, you're not

responding Alan Robinson. You're, again, it's like Darnal Mooney, Justin Fields, a couple young guys in the offensive line. Jalen Johnson might be the only player on defense, I think, worth keeping around. It's a multi-year tear down with the goal of entering Fields' third season. You want to have a competitive roster again. Stephen Ruiz. Yeah, I would agree with that. I don't know if we should like kill

Nagy in pace, but maybe exile them to like an island. An island? Like Napoleon? I'm fine. Yeah, I'm fine with that. But yeah, like quarterback, obviously Justin Fields, he's played only a handful of games and he showed enough promise for me to believe in him

going into year two. The roster is obviously flawed. There's some veterans on the, on the roster that maybe are overpriced. I think going back to the Kille-Mack trade, that kind of signified Ryan Pace's shortcomings as a GM to me. I think he's good at finding talent. It's just valuing that talent properly

that has really held him back as a GM. And for that reason, I'm saying you have to move on from, what was he, 2018 executive of the year? I'm saying you have to move on. That award is incredibly cursed. And it's cursed because it's flawed on how we vote on it. We vote on it for these GMs that take these big swings.

And like it works out for a year. But then two years later, the bears become this. Right. There's a stretch of them where like they all got fired. Like Mike McCagnan with the jets. Like there was like four years in a row where the following year the guy was fired. It went.

All right. So going back, Reggie McKenzie, 2016. McCagden, 2015. McCagden, 2015. Come on, guys. Jerry Jones. Jerry Jones. John Dorsey, who was fired.

but who obviously did did some nice things. Grigson, Balki, Piole. I mean, what are we doing here? What's more prestigious? The Nickelodeon MVP are executive of the year. Trabisky lost his job too. Yeah, but I've seen tweets suggesting that you can get a first or second for Trabisky, so his arrow is pointing up ever since winning that award.

Jacksonville Jaguars, Bradstall Burger. Yeah, so obviously keeping Trevor Lawrence, you can't move on there. I'm surprised by this. I think Urban Meyer is gone now. I think that it sounds like that is kind of the trend now. Even after just one season, you make a huge deal to get him in the building. It sounds like the other coaches hate him.

He hates the other coaches. He's throwing guys under the bus, left, right, and center. This week was their running backs coach and James Robinson. So I think he's gone. I also, I'm not sure if Trent Balkey was hired just to troll Jim Harbaugh.

And by that, I mean, apparently bulky, who used to work in San Francisco when Harbaugh was the head coach, apparently they hated each other the entire time. and we're always pulling in opposite directions. And I wondered if he got hired in Jacksonville just as kind of a troll in the first place. So he's also gone.

And then obviously you improve. I mean, there is nothing to tear down. You don't have any talent. So you're trying to improve. I'm with you on that. Stephen? Yeah, like what do you blow up about this roster? Like you get rid of Marvin Jones.

Yeah, you keep the roster, whatever. Whatever, you keep Lawrence. And then it just comes down to whether you keep the coach in GM. Yeah, I'm going to give him one more year. I agree that it's. Oh, okay. It hasn't looked great. It's actually looked opposite of grade.

I had low expectations for Urban Meyer, and he has not matched them somehow. But I honestly don't think there's a sense of urgency here. The roster's not ready to win. I disagree. I completely disagree. There's a sense of urgency in that Trevor Lawrence looks like he's about to be failed. That to me is a sense of urgency. No, I get that, but I think Trevor Lawrence is too good to fail.

Like, even watching him on take this year with everything that's gone wrong around him, I don't think the offense is going to be this bad going forward, like roster-wise. It has to get better. There's no way it's going to be this bad. Laquan Treadwell was the leading receiver for them on Sunday. That's ridiculous. And I think Trevor Lawrence. Trevor Lawrence is too good to fail to me scares me as a tactic.

That's all. Like there's been a lot of quarterbacks I think that have been too good to fail and have been failed so severely by their franchise that they ended up failing. That tactic worries me. No, no, I agree with that. But I think my reason for thinking this is, that I think he's going to be a quarterback who's going to be good for a very long time. So I don't think you have to take advantage of his rookie contract to get the most out of him.

Whereas like a guy like to, I think there is a greater sense of urgency because if you're paying to a $40 million, that's a problem. If you're paying Lawrence, $40 million and he gets to where I think he's going to get, I don't, I think he's still underpaid. So I'm going to give it one more year. If it doesn't improve significantly, then I move on, but I don't have high hopes for Urban Meyer or Balky. All right.

This one was not included in the list, but Stephen wanted to talk about it. And I think I know why he wanted to talk about it. And I'll actually start with you here, Stephen, the Atlanta Falcons. I honestly think this team is closer than we think. I think they're one of those, like, off seasons where they hit every, like, every opportunity they hit it out of the park. Like the Saints had in, what was it, 2017 when they killed the draft that one year. I think they're that, that's all they need. Because Matt Ryan is still playing really well.

Like, if you watch him, if you watch him, if you're, you're in, what was it. you just isolate his performance, I think he's still performing like a top 10 quarterback. And I understand that the move to restructure him was kind of questionable, considering the fact that they then traded Julio Jones. But I kind of get it now, watching him on film. If they can improve that offensive line, I think this offense in general is going to take off next year.

You have to assume Ridley's going to play more next year. I think Kyle Pitts is going to take a step. Arthur Jones, while the results haven't been great, I think his play calling has been pretty good. Like, when you watch them, you could see what he's going for. just fix the offensive line and they're going to score a lot of points. And defensively, I mean, there's not a lot to work with there, but, like, Grady Jarrett's still very good.

I think AJ Terrell's a star at cornerback. And Dean Pease is a good defensive coach. He can get more out of that roster than any other defensive coordinator in the league. So I think give it one more year. And then after that, blow it up. They're close to making all the right moves, but also in a year, blow it up. Good. Well, Matt Ryan is, like, four.

40 years old. So it's not going to last room. I know. I know. Brad, what would you do with the Falcons? The funny thing is the margins are that slim sometimes, though, where like a great, great draft class can either, you know, change the entire direction. Drew Breeze was almost playing for the jets, apparently. So you really never know what's going to happen. But I have a stat here that I think is one of the crazier stats from a nerdy cap perspective. The Falcons have five players, one of them being Julio Jones, that account for $130 million in cap space next year out of 208 total. So like two thirds of their entire cap is going to four guys

on the roster plus Julio Jones. So I don't even know like how you work around that or how you kind of maneuver. I'm not a huge I'm not a huge cap expert. It came from New Orleans. Go ahead. Go ahead. As you say, I'm not a huge cap expert, but I think that might be bad. That's my take. I'm not, you know, I haven't studied it.

No, you guys are wrong. The Falcons just have a great core and they're paying for it. That's how you build a winner, a long-term winner. Anyway, what about Terry Fontnet? I think he's a great GM. I think he's proven that in New Orleans. And I also, yeah, I think Arthur Smith is a good head coach. I mean, Cordial Patterson is a borderline MVP candidate at this point.

So, you know, I think you let it play out. I think they knew both of them, I think we're some of the best candidates available. And the fact they shows Atlanta, I think is because they have a long-term vision. First, you let Matt Ryan go on his farewell tour. I agree he's played pretty well this year. And then you kind of figured out after that. New York Giants, Stephen? Oh, blow it all up.

I don't even think I have to explain this. Dave Gettleman has spent the last, what, like five years, proving that he's not a competent GM. I can't find one reason to keep Joe Judge around. Like, has there been any sign that he gets it? I haven't seen it. I don't know what your guy's opinion of him is. And then obviously, Daniel Jones,

I think he's been better than a lot of people thought he would be. A lot of people were surprised that he was taken in the top 10. I was surprised, but I wasn't surprised that he was a first round pick. and I think he's played like a late or mid to late first round pick, like you would expect. He's just not the guy. He's not the problem in New York, but he's not the solution. And I think when you realize that about a quarterback, it's time to move on as quickly as possible. I agree.

And I would also say that the idea of consolidating Joe Judge's power and getting somebody from a New England scouting system so they're more aligned with Joe Judge, what are we doing? Why do you want to be more aligned with Joe Judge? That's the problem. Less align with Joe Judge. Bring in a guy who's like, no, I'm not aligned with you, Joe Judge. Greg, what are we doing with the Giants? Yeah, it's the craziest thing. Like, I was going to mention this with Nagy, too, because he no longer calls plays.

Like, Joe Judge does not call plays, and they still seem like they make the most unforce errors in the NFL, just like alignment penalties, pre-snap penalties, all this things that you would think the one thing they would be good at with Joe Judge's head coach is that. And yeah, it sounds like he is going to get more power. Obviously, Gettelman's out the door, and that, you know, is a foregone conclusion. But as for Daniel Jones, I do think you pick up the fifth year option and you try to find a sucker, sorry Stephen, like Carolina, to take out a quarterback from New York and see if you can

get a second round pick out of it and just, you know, just get them out of there as fast as possible. But I don't think, you know, you don't give them away for nothing. My favorite thing about the Panthers, Stephen, is that they went from, we'll do anything to get a franchise quarterback to we will literally take any quarterback and just see how it goes. That's not my favorite thing about them, but yeah. Let's do it. Let's do the Panthers right now, Brad. Yeah, so I think we're looking for another quarterback this time around.

The thing with them is they've now traded the second round pick for Darnold. They have a third round pick gone for C.J. Henderson. Like they don't even have resources really. They don't have a ton of cap space or money either. But yeah, nevertheless, maybe you try to convince Russell Wilson to come back. He played at NC State. So there's a Carolina connection or something like that. I was looking for a reaction from Stephen there.

I didn't get one positive or negative. No, it's, I don't know. He's staring into the best. and then just trying to draft offensive line. No, my mind was just processing. And I was thinking to myself, would I rather have Jimmy G or Russell Wilson?

And it was a tough question to answer to be honest with you with the way Russ is playing this year. But no, yeah, you blow it up. You blow it up. Like, why is, why does Matt Rule get year three other than the contract? And I don't think David Tepper is a guy who cares about paying a little extra money to win now as evidenced by his first two and a half years as the owner. But you bring in Matt Rule to build a process.

program. And I ask this on Sunday's pod, and I'm asking it again, what direction is this team headed in? Are they rebuilding? Are they going for a playoff chase? Like, their moves have been inconsistent. It goes back to the Russell Okun trade, which I think was the first time that I really lost faith in this regime in Matt Rule. It didn't make any sense. They traded a younger player, a cheaper player for a veteran who was already talking about retirement. And this team was in need of a rebuild. That's not a move you make. And then signing Cam Newton, as much as it brought me joy and got me reinvested in this season, it was still a panic move, a short-sighted move. They're giving him a lot of money to do what, to play for half a year.

It doesn't make any sense to me. Nothing has made sense about the last two and a half years. We can go down the list. I mean, there's so many moves they've made that just make no sense. Yeah, this was my analogy for their first offseason. It was like a Netflix account where you have two different people controlling it. and like the recently watched section is like trashy reality shows and then like World War II documentaries. Like there was no clear direction. We need one one brain working in that front office.

And I don't think Scott Fitterer, if he's so tied to Matt Ruhl, I don't have confidence in him being that guy. I shared this with Stephen, but I had somebody pretty smart text me after they gave Cam Newton the deal he did. And they said that TEPA should have just put this money toward Matt Ruhl's buyout. I agree. That would have brought me as much joy as Cam Newton re-signing with them. My question is, did they make that move just to get people like Stephen watching the games again, going to the games again? Like, did they even think that was a football move or was that a sell tickets move? Stephen can answer that.

But what I'll say is, are we sure that getting everybody back watching the games is a good thing if you're Matt Rule right now? I'll tell you this. It wasn't a good thing for me because I was, like, I had some faith in Matt Rule, but having watched this team closely for the last three weeks, I was done with him. So no, it hasn't been a good thing for them. And you mentioned Fitterer real quick. My perception is that Fitterer works format rule. So it's again a situation where like there's just too much power concentrated to one person. And, you know, not good.

Can we get rid of the owner? Because I would do that too. We cannot. We cannot. That was the only ground rule at the beginning of this was no ownership changes. You could buy them out. Fair enough. You can invest.

I'm going to need to start investing. I'm going to need to borrow some money. You have a PFF, Chris's. a phone number on you by any chance? Yeah, we'll crowd source it. Yeah, well. New York Jets, Brad. Oh, the Jets. It's interesting because I was high on Robert Sala

and I'm going to give them time, but for the defense to arguably regress this year doesn't make a whole lot of sense. You know, I know they've had injuries. Obviously, they're big ticket free agent signing and Carl Lawson goes down before the season starts. You know, and they knew they were going to be bad. Their secondary is a bunch of, you know, fifth rounders and undrafted

free agents, but just still kind of strange to me, there's still this bad on defense. For quarterback, obviously, we're keeping Mike White. That goes without saying, I think. And then beyond that, I actually am a big fan, Joe Douglas. It's kind of funny that his two best moves are getting rid of players. But nevertheless, when you move on from Jamal Adams, get two first and a third, move on from Darnold, get a second and a fourth and all that,

you've got to let that guy take some time, build out this roster. They still have a ton of draft capital. But yeah, I think the leash is very short there. Next year, it doesn't be competitive. or not to be a contender, but they have to be competitive, I think, in most games they put.

I agree. What would you do, what would you do with the quarterback position, like, for 2020? Are you asking me? I mean, I, anybody. I mean, like,

there just seems like, there's just a million ways you could go with it. I mean, I'll throw it to you, Steven, for your list, but, like, I just feel like you go with Wilson,

you could add in more veteran competition. You could do, actually do the Mike White thing. Like, it just seems so strange, but Stephen, where would you start? I think you have to at least consider

moving on from Wilson or finding some competition for them. If they go into the option... That's my thing. It's just getting like one of these guys, and we saw this last year, like one of these guys who just randomly kind of freeze up because someone big gets traded or something like that.

That's who I would try to bring it. And this isn't about like rushing quarterbacks and being impatient with them, but Zach Wilson had one good year at BYU. And so far this year, he's been bad in the ways we feared he would be bad in and he hasn't been good in the ways we thought he could be good in. And that's a big red flag for a rookie quarterback.

And the offense has functioned better with Mike White and Joe Flacco, which, like, I love Mike White as much as the next guy. But if that's the case, then you've got to start looking at your rookie quarterback, your first round quarterback, who was the like second round or second overall pick. And you didn't even consider other quarterbacks. I don't know. Like my answer was to keep Douglas around. But if he's tied himself to Zach Wilson, then that gives me some more questions about

him as a GM. you're okay with Salaf for another year? I am. Yeah, yeah, I think you get one of the year. And one of the big reasons is, like,

this defense needs a dominant pass rush to really be good, and he needs more time to build that up. I think you run it all back with the exception of just having more quarterback options in case things really go south next year. That's my only take. I think that rebuilds take a long time, and this is a culture change and all that stuff. Everything's fine.

New Orleans Saints. Stephen Ruiz. I think you should stay the course for one more year. I think things were going well before James's injury, and I know it's gone south since then since Trevor Simeon took over, and they've obviously gone to Taysam Hill. But Peyton was doing what we all thought he might do for Winston. He had turned him into a quarterback who wasn't making too many mistakes

and was still making throws downfield. The defense is still talented, even though it's not as deep as it used to be. And I think Dennis Allen is one of the best defensive coordinators. Like the pieces are here for a team that can make a run in the play. playoffs. I don't think they're ever going to enter the playoffs with this roster, considered a Super Bowl favorite. But I think they're going to be good enough where if things break right for them and Sean Payton just pulls great game plans out of his ass, I think they can go on a run and win the Super Bowl, even with James Winston at

quarterback. I think the interesting thing might be where Dennis Allen is next year. I mean, you already lost Aaron Glein and a lot of those position coaches to Detroit. Now, if you also lose Dennis Allen, then it could get tricky. I agree with you, though. I think, you know, every year we talk about their cap space, they're fine this offseason. Yes, they're negative 60 million on over the cap.com right now, but a couple moves, you know, a couple restructures and they figure all that out. I also, I mentioned him earlier for Carolina. I think Russell Wilson to the New Orleans Saints makes a ton of sense. His agent had that list of four teams he put out. New Orleans was on it. He apparently loves Drew Breeze and idolized Drew Breese's his whole

career. And I think they could find a way to make it work. And I think he'd want to go there. And as you said, Sean Payton would come up with, you know, all these creative packages, Tase and some Hill would be doing Taseom Hill things. I think you give it one more year. And then, you know, Jordan Malcolm Jenkins like a lot of those guys then are kind of on the way out but they've been fine so far so why not run it back one more time i think i agree uh philadelphia eagles stephen i i have three question marks here i don't even know like the gm is basically the owner at this point given his influence he's won all these power struggles like are let's say they wanted to blow it up are they even going to be able to do it with howie there i don't

think he's going to let it happen i i would keep jelan hertz around for as long as his rookie contract. I don't see any reason to want to move on this quickly. I think he's good enough as a one contract quarterback. Use those top 10 picks on building up the roster around him, fixing the defense. And I could see this as a team that goes like 10 and 7, 11 and 6 next year, which, I mean, I think they need that right now with how the past couple years have gone. Yeah, no, I completely agree. I think Jalen Hertz, when you took him in the second round, you said, if he becomes a serviceable starter at this price point, that's awesome. And he is.

I think he's earned the right to play through the rest of his rookie deal, you know, unless things fall apart or whatnot. But yeah, I mean, three first round picks, you know, the offensive line starting to play a little bit better. I think they are agreed. I think they're a team that could bounce back pretty quickly. And I get, you know, how we had a real rough stretch of drafting, or I guess Jeff Lurie had a real rough stretch of drafting there for a stretch.

But I mean, I think they hit a couple guys this year. And as you said, again, if they have, if they win in like five starters this upcoming draft, we can be talking about them as a playoff team right away. Wow. How many mock drafts do you think Jeffrey Lurie has done over the last couple years? I think the mock draft simulators are freezing across the country with Jeffrey Lurie. Wow. All right, guys, what a great exercise. Stephen Ruiz, Brad Spielberger, thanks for joining us. Thanks for having me. I love firing people. Thank you.

All right. Thank you to Mike, Stephen and Brad, for joining me. Next up on this feed is Nora and Mallory with their Thursday show. Thank you to Erica Cervantes for production help with additional production supervision by Arjuna Ramkeball. This has been The Runner NFL show on The Rinner Podcast Network.