The Ringer NFL Show - Which Coaches Have the Most at Stake in the Remainder of the Regular Season?

Episode Date: December 16, 2020

We discuss which teams have the best chance at beating the Chiefs in the playoffs (01:00). Later, we get into which coaches have the most on the line in the last three weeks of the regular season (24:00), the playoff picture (29:00), and more. Hosts: Chris Vernon and Warren Sharp Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On today's Ringer NFL show, Warren and I discuss who could give the Chiefs the most trouble in the playoffs, coaches with the most on the line in these last few weeks of the season, and more. We'll be right back. Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm Chris Vernon. And joining me as he does every Wednesday is Warren Sharp. Hey, Warren. Hey, what's up, Chris? All right, so we've got a ton of stuff to get to.

There's only three weeks left in the NFL season. And let's start with the team that played another close game, the Kansas City Chiefs, because. at the very beginning when we started this podcast at the beginning of the season, you said, if you can get down on the chiefs right now, it's a great bet. That has certainly come to fruition as the season has gone on. And we will see if it remains.

Either way, it's going to be a good bet, but now they certainly look like a real favorite. If I put the chiefs on the field this weekend and am looking for the team, that would have the game that would elicit the closest line the chiefs versus blank who would that be it would be the packers even even if it's drew breeze i guess i said this weekend so we don't know on drew breeze but if it's if it's if it's a saint with drew breeze would they um i think right now it's i i personally would not set a line close with drew breeze because we don't know

what Drew Breeze is yet. This is a guy who had a collapsed lung, 11 broken ribs. We just saw the Saints lose last week to the Eagles without Breeze. With Breeze, is that a different game? Obviously, do the Saints win by a large margin? I mean, it's hard to say what breeze, what condition Breeze is in. Remember, this is the interesting thing about the Saints and why it's going to be fascinating this stretch run. And I think the market against the Chiefs here is, is, is, is, supposing that Breeze is probably playing this week, but it's, I don't know, we haven't seen any practices yet, so it's too early to be confident yet that he's going to be able to go. But what were you talking about before he even left? It's his arm, his shoulder, like how far

down the field he's throwing the football, what his condition is. And obviously he improved a little bit. There were a number of weeks. There was like a month almost. That was the primary story in the media is focusing on how he could throw the ball down the field of where. his struggles were. Now he deals with all these issues. Are they going to open him up right away? Are they going to save his downfield stuff for the postseason? Because if you're that other team, you're going to really be able, you're going to have to adjust very quickly. So I don't know, I don't feel confident in putting the Saints higher up on the power ratings and a better matchup against the Chiefs. I would definitely say the Packers ahead of the Chiefs because

Aaron Rogers can make all the throws has been playing on. On point. Yes, their defense is worse than the saints. You mean ahead of the Saints, not ahead of the Chiefs. You would put them ahead of the Saints. Correct. Nobody ahead of the Chiefs. But what's fascinating, Warren, is those are both NFC teams that we have just discussed. Like, their greatest competition, do you buy that their greatest competition will come from an NFC team rather than an AFC team? I mean, who's the highest ranked AFC team? The highest-ranked AFC team right now is the Buffalo Bills, followed by the Pittsburgh Steelers. And I know you had some issues with that in terms of like what the exact line would be in the betting markets and the Steelers would elicit more action. So they might have a slightly higher, a slightly lower line against them. In other words, like the Chiefs would be a slightly larger.

Sorry, the bills would be a slightly larger underdog in that matchup. But what I would say to that is, number one, the bills just beat the Steelers. Number two, the Steelers have, I don't want to say this similar number of questions because their QB is healthy right now. But the Steelers have a ton of questions. If you were to ask me this question four weeks ago, and I've been high on the bills for months, so for me, I'm not all of a sudden shooting the bills up the ladder. I've liked the bills for a while now.

I've been betting the bills, been betting the bills, overs. But if you were to ask me this four weeks ago, I would probably go with the Steelers because I believed that their defense and Mike Tomlin will be capable of figuring out a way to slow down the Kansas City Chiefs offense a little bit here. Now we have seen the Steelers' offense decline and the Steelers' defense decline as well. The Steelers' defense has had a rash of injuries at the linebacker position. they constantly are trying to stick linebackers on receivers, slot receivers. What do you think the chiefs are going to do here? Number one, they're going to be attack Travis Kelsey over the middle of the football field

and the Steelers don't really have any good matchup to cover Travis Kelsey. If you get Patrick Mahomes to utilize Travis Kelsey, we've already seen. You could try to take away Tyree Kill, which is what the Patriots try to do all the time. If Mahomes is still able to hit Travis Kelsey, you are not going to be in very good shape. And number two, you stick Tyree Kill in the slot. I mean, the Steelers don't have anybody to match up with him either. Like in the slot, you're going to get mismatches. You're going to motion him.

You're going to get linebackers on. Like Mike Tomlin always gives Andy Reid trouble historically. But I think the rash of injuries defensively is a big problem for the Steelers in this matchup. And then secondarily, offensively, we have seen the Steelers offense become a little bit, a little bit too predictable. Maybe a lot too predictable. A little bit is probably an understatement. a lot too predictable here.

They want to pass the ball. They're bad at running. I have no idea and no... This is a coaching staff where it's a mismatch from an offensive perspective. Rani Fickner, the Steelers' offensive coordinator, is apparently not too bright of a guy. But they come in here to this game against the bills,

and they haven't been able to run the football at all. They suddenly get James Connor back after a multi-week absence, and they decide that they're going to run the ball on first down, they're gaining nothing. They're doing it all during the first half. They come out into the second half. First play of their first drive in the second half, they run the ball, get nothing, go three and out, punt the ball back. Buffalo goes down the field scores. Second drive, they get, Steelers get the ball. First play, the second drive, it's a run that gets nothing. Second and long, third and long, they don't convert, punt the ball after a three and out. This is a team that can't run the football right now.

And to be able to expose the chiefs who have a bad run defense, the chiefs run defense is exactly where you can exploit them. The Steelers, I do not believe, have that. Well, hold on a second now, right? Now, in fairness, let me say this. I've known Randy Feetner for 20 years, okay? He's not a bozo. So this is going to be personal.

You touched the nerve here. Okay. Their offense is awesome, like, every year, right? So is he a bozo or is there something wrong this year with personnel-wise, right? Like, to me, when you have, and I'm not saying this, because I've known the guy for a long time, right? He got his start, much like Tomlin, in Memphis, where I am. These guys aren't bozo.

Like something, Jay, if he's like a new coordinator, or this is a new system that I would understand. I told you this two weeks ago. I think Rutherberg's hurt. I think he's hurt. I think they've been trying to protect him, and it's a fool's errand because they can't run the ball at all anyway. And so now you're just like,

you don't want him to have to throw the ball 65 times. a game, but they can't get yards doing anything else. And I think they're just trying to get him to January. That's what I'd guess, right? And so, to me, when you have a very long track record of their offense being rather great over the years, I think it's unfair. Maybe I'm protecting a guy I know, but I do think, I think it's unfair to say, like, this guy doesn't know what he's doing because what's different. Like what, he did know what he was doing? I mean, it's the same kind of thing with Bruce Ariens or any of these guys that has a track record of producing really good NFL offenses.

If they, it's different if it's a new guy or it's somebody that hasn't done it before. But they have. And their offense has been outstanding in Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, I would just say, I do think you're dead on about the bills. And I do think. Well, let's get, okay, let's hit the bills in a second. Getting back to the Steelers. So, Rani Fickner, here's my issue with Randy Fickner.

Okay. You hit on it. This team cannot run the ball right now. Their O line is maybe it's a little bit older. I think it lost a lot when Mike Munchak left. They do not have the coaching and the run blocking ability to get it done up front. And as a result, the run game is less productive. So I understand that.

So, but why are you calling and wasting plays trying to run the football, when they're clearly gaining nothing. James Connor gains 1.8 yards per carry and we're giving him 10 touches, including first downs in the third quarter when we're falling behind further and further. Like, that's my issue. It's not that I understand that you have to be a little bit balanced, but the run game is not getting it done right now and it wasn't working last week in the first half. It's not suddenly going to work in the second half. It was an issue with just the specific play calling. In addition, and not to drill down too deep of a rabbit hole here, but there is a big reason why they brought in Matt Canada in the offseason.

Matt Canada was going to work with a lot of the things that Fickner was struggling with in the 2019 season, which is lack of motion, lack of play action, lack of creativity on the offensive front. I know Fickner likes to line up and spread the field with receivers and attack through the air. And that's, I love that strategy. It's working for Buffalo offensively. It's not a bad strategy at all. Pass first I completely buy into. So I'm not saying his overall philosophy is bad,

but there are little things that needed to be, that need to be fixed. And that's why they brought Matt Canada in to try to help bring in a little bit more creativity. So that's my standpoint on Fickner. I don't have an issue with, like, the Steelers are going to win or lose, in my opinion, in 2020,

based upon whether Rothesberger is capable of getting it done or not. Obviously, the receivers have to catch the ball. But this is not suddenly going to become a top 10 run team that's going to help lead the team into the promise lane in the postseason. I truly believe that they are issues with the personnel and the coaching along the offensive line that are preventing them from getting solid and consistent gains on the ground. They need to figure out the right time to call those plays and sprinkle them in.

The truth is there is no right time. Connor's not any good. Connor's not any good. He's not explosive. And it's like, you know, you try. I understand it. They try to do it. But they don't, they don't have a running game.

They just don't. They don't have an explosive running back and they don't have a running game. And so what do you do when you don't? The other hard part is interesting with Connor is that, you know, this is a guy who beat cancer. He's a cancer survivor. and then he got COVID. And we already don't know, like, how guys come back from COVID, how quickly everybody's different.

But, you know, I'm not going to try to blame it, give him a crutch or kill the guy at the same time for, like, his production in last week's game. But to the point, if you can't get it blocked up front, then you could have Adrian Peterson back there. You need to create some holes. You need to do some things. And they're not getting that job done right now. And I agree with you.

that's probably unlikely to happen through the rest of the season. So they've got to figure out how to create a passing attack that's less predictable. We saw the bills just sitting on those routes and jumping those short routes because they know Ben's getting rid of the ball. And under two seconds, that's like widely known around the NFL right now. When the announcers are talking about how widely known some things are, then you know the defenses have already picked up and keyed in on it. And that's all the announcers we're talking about during that game.

So now let's transition into your thoughts on the Buffalo. I'll just say, I agree with you that the bills are, we just watch those two teams play. They're the more formidable opponent. I'm only saying that if you make that line, and let's not make it this weekend, let's make it in January, right? Because of the prestige that the Steelers have,

because of the amount of playoff games under their quarterback's belt and their coach's belt, you will inevitably get, I believe, a shorter line between those teams. teams and a lie that probably goes up a little, but people, you know, you've got a lot of people out there that are the casual fan and the casual better, they would slam the chiefs versus the bills. They would look at it and they'd say it's Josh Allen. You know what I'm saying? You're a lot

more scared to bet against Ben Rothersberger and the Steelers than you are Josh Allen and the bills. And that will change as soon as they go and they beat somebody like the chiefs or they beat somebody even like the Steelers in a playoff game, right? But in the meantime, when you have that kind of prestigious franchise and then you got a coach and you got a quarterback that have tons of success under their belt and playoff success under their belt, people are going to be more likely to bet on them, in my opinion, than they are Buffalo, because Buffalo still has to prove it when it comes January. You know what I mean?

Well, they do. They absolutely do. Now, this has been a team that's had success in getting to the postseason. They will see what happens with Miami the Pills. We got a couple great week 17 games, Chris, where we're going to have some division battles that may decide things, you know, division-wise. Like, you've got the Bills versus the Dolphins play week 17, and that's going to be probably for the AFC East Crown.

But if they get there, I mean, obviously this is a team that's moving up. in terms of where they are franchise-wise. The other cool thing about the bills that's of note is this is a team that's sort of trending in the right direction because you have the return of John Brown at some point. He may not be up this weekend this Saturday, but they just activated him off of IR. And he's been dealing with a multi-week injury, of course. That's why he's on IR. And so they could be getting back a key piece in the pass again because

Gabe Davis has been filling in for John Brown. And there's definitely a difference between what John Brown's going to be able to give your team and his ability to understand the offense as compared to Gabe Davis. But he has scored three weeks in a row. Give Gabe Davis a little bit of credit. I mean, he's at least gotten in the end zone. He has. No, I'm not trying to slam him.

I'm just trying to speak to the positives of John Brown. And then you've got the defense getting a little bit better. I have been reluctant to really put the stamp of approval on the bill's defense yet. I still truly believe that it's a result of circumstances and opponents as to why they haven't, as to why they're looking a little bit better from a metric perspective. But there's no doubt that they are getting a little bit better. I don't want to say, oh, my gosh, look at this team how much improved they are defensively. I want to say it's circumstances, its opponents.

Yes, they have gotten a little bit better. Yes, they got Matt Milano back at linebacker. Their personnel is getting a little bit better. So this team, like on both sides of the ball, is going to be improving over the last couple weeks of the regular season and into the postseason, barring any unknown injuries that are to be determined, which could happen to any team. And whereas the Steelers are doing the exact opposite, right? They're getting more injured defensively.

Their offense looking a little bit worse. So I think that they got that going in their favor, but you're right. I mean, there is some pedigree associated with the Pittsburgh Steelers that the Buffalo Bills don't really have. I think both teams have a shot against the Chiefs. I like the bills better against the Chiefs from a matchup perspective. And I do think the interesting part is Buffalo has got the same type of issue that Pittsburgh does. They are not the type of team that's going to come out and be able to line up and, knock you back with their offensive line and gain consistent yards on the ground.

This is a little, I don't want to call them a finesse team, but this is a team that gets it done a little bit more through the air, and then we'll run on you once they've softened your front up a little bit to protect the pass a little bit more. And there's nothing wrong with that, but the weakness of the Chiefs right now is their run defense, where they rank as one of the worst, the worst teams in the NFL is defending the run. So if Buffalo can knock back a little bit, have some success in the short passing game, and then be able to exploit some of those inefficiencies on the ground, even though they're not built as a really solid run team, I think that that is a positive. But there's no doubt the issue with beating the chiefs ultimately is going to be figuring out a way to get out early, right? Because a lot of times the chiefs end up falling into holes, right? So you've got to be able to exploit that. get out early against the chiefs.

But then how do you play with a lead? How do you call plays with a lead? I think all of the signal callers in the NFL who are going to be facing off against the Kansas City Chiefs need to do a hard self-scout and reckoning before they even start that game about what types of plays they're going to call with a lead, how aggressive they're going to still maintain things, how much they're going to wait, clock management, time of possession, versus putting up more points and productivity because we have seen week in and week out Mahomes fall behind on the scoreboard rally, win games at the end.

And it's definitely absolutely something that will help all these OCs is planning out how to play with a lead against the Chiefs. I hope Bill O'Brien's listening to our podcast. He could say, see, it's not just me. All right, mine was worse. Like I got a super big. and then blew it. But like everybody,

they're coming back on everybody, right? Like I saw his record. He's like the only guy with a winning record down double digits in games. He's like something like nine and four. It's something crazy, right? Like the only player, the only quarterback in the NFL who has a winning record

after going down double digits is Pat Bohokes. Well, and let me just say this on the bills front one more thing. Because obviously they have super impressed this two primetime games the last two weeks. But I took notice of, it felt very significant Warren for on the first game that we saw, the 49er game, they're saying he's like 15 to 16 against the zone. He's just picking that thing apart.

Why are you sticking in this? They're just carving them up. And then they talked about all the pressure that the Steelers were bringing, right? It's like, we're not going to just drop into his own and let this guy feast on us. And for him to have success both ways, I thought, is rather significant, right? Because you would think, especially after a guy destroys his own on a big primetime game, of course, your game plan is not going to be the same. But he had success also against the Steelers, right?

He's obviously got a great connection with Diggs for sure. I mean, that has got to be the greatest trade serious. Like, it's just transformative to have this guy. He is unbelievable. And he's just, and between him and Beasley, you just always feel like they're going to convert third downs. And can you imagine with John Brown in and out of the lineup so much this season, what this team would have been without digs in there? You know, it's hard to, it's hard to picture. These two teams played earlier this season, week six, and the Buffalo Bills lost that game by nine points.

That game was played in a consistent drizzle, like rain. I don't even know what to call it, but all the way throughout, there was precipitation falling. It made the game less true to form in some ways. And the Chiefs were just running the ball and the bills could not stop the run game. But the reality is, that's kind of the way that you keep the game close. Like, if you were to tell me that I could have Mahomes not throw three plus touchdowns. And I could have Clyde Edwards-Daler in the first three quarters have 15 rushing

attempts and Levyon Bell have another six or seven rushing attempts. I would take that all day. Like it's one thing if those guys are rushing the ball in the fourth quarter because they're up by 17 points. And so they ultimately have a lot of rushing attempts at the end of the game. If your primary strategy to attack me is to run the football because of the defense that I'm playing, and Patrick Mahomes isn't throwing the ball to Tyree Kill or Travis Kelsey. Like, I am signing off on that game plan right away, even if your runs are gaining five to six yards per carry.

So, like, I think that the strategies that Sean McDermott might have here will be pretty fascinating if these guys meet up in a rematch. The Ringender NFL show is brought to you by Fanduel. No one does football like Fandual Sportsbook. All season long, Fandual is bringing exclusive offers for the best games on the weekly. Slate. This week here's something you don't want to miss. New users can bet $5 to win $75 on Justin Herbert to throw one or more touchdowns against the Las Vegas Raiders. You heard that right. You can bet $5 to win $75 plus $1,500 odds on Justin Herbert to throw one or more touchdowns. Justin Herbert throwing

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In your opinion, Warren, what team or coach or team and coach are these last three weeks most important to, in your opinion? Well, I mean, if we're talking about future, like the future of a career for a coach, I mean, we didn't mention his name at all. We talked about the bills for like 10 minutes, but Brian Dayball, that's a massive, like if we're talking about potential candidates like their offense to continue to perform really well. Do you know that the Buffalo Bills, here's a nugget for you, Chris, are the one of four teams in NFA, NFL history to have accrued 20 first downs every single game through their first 13 games of the season.

Holy. The only other three teams to have done that all made the Super Bowl. I think it was the Patriots, Peyton Manning's Broncos, and it might have been the Patriots Gennar or I forget the third team that did it. But I believe that there was only three other teams to have done that. I mean, this is just a, it's just a very efficient offense. And the cool thing to watch here is like the transition that, Josh Allen has undergone as a passer.

Like, we could talk all about Josh Allen and his improvement in digs, but like somebody has to write the recipe for this stuff to work. And if you don't put it in the right proportions, you don't have the guys in the right position to execute. Like, it's not going to look anywhere close to what it's looking right now. So massive kudos to dayball for that. Obviously, like, we can overlook the guys that are probably going to be gone, right? I don't know how they're keeping Doug Marone on in Jacksonville. Adam Gase needs to be gone with the Jets. Anthony Lynn, there's no hope in saving his job, in my opinion.

I don't know why they, like, everything we've heard, obviously, about Lynn is great guy, and that's why the team is reluctant to move on from him. But my God, man, I hope I screw up so much on the Ringer shows the rest of the season as he does. And then Simmons just gives me a pass because I'm a nice guy. The patience of ownership there, despite in the face of him screwing up left and right all the time, is absolutely absurd. So, you know. You think Fangio keeps his job?

Yes, I do. I mean, he's got ravaged, right? I mean, like, they lost their best defensive player in Miller. They lost their best offensive player in Sutton. I tell you this, I watch them. And I think, my God, they got this Hamlin kid. They got Sutton. They got Noah Fant.

They got Jerry Judy. Like Drew Locke, you know, he's not like, I don't know, man. They're all young. I kind of think that there's, they got a, they've got a chance to have a really nice offense if they got everybody healthy because they got some serious weapons at a very young age. I got some playmakers. They do. And the other thing, I mean, like you mentioned a lot of these guys that they just drafted

like Hamler and, but in addition to that, this is a, a team that, like, they're ravaged defensively, too. I mean, they're starting cornerbacks. We're already out. They had some Bouier suspended. They lost Bryce Callahan, who's like, well, number two-graded

guy from a cornerback position in terms of his coverage grade this season. And then you just lost, like, I think, three other guys with torn ACLs in the last seven days. It's absolutely ridiculous in that secondary. So it's going to be interesting to see their matchup

against the bills on Saturday afternoon. But I think, I think Fangio keeps his job. So if we're talking about from that perspective of like hot seat coaches, lose their job, keep their job, we already have fired a number of guys like in Houston, right, Romeo Cornell is not getting the job there. We fired Bill O'Brien. That's not an issue. In Detroit, I mean, I don't think their office coordinator is getting that job.

They're going to be looking for a new head coach there as well. Wade Phillips already Jerry Jones has come out and said, he's safe. I mean, he's at no risk of getting fired. He said, Wade Phillips.

He reminds me of Wade Phillips. Oh, damn. Mike McCarthy and Wade Phillips. Wade Phillips is like a brayer Mike McCarthy, but they both sort of body types are. You are bringing back some memories now. You really had, what a Freudian slip.

There you go. Joe said Wade Phillips and, And I think obviously you got the Eagles, right? That's an interesting one down the stretch is what happens with Hertz. Can they somehow get into the postseason? I think their percentage chance is very small. But interestingly enough, they do play Washington in week 17. Right now they're, I guess Washington has six wins.

Philadelphia has four. You got three games left, one of which is a head-to-head. So Washington already beat them once. So obviously Philly has to win that game, has to probably win the next two, have Washington lose one of its next two plus the game against the Eagles for something like that to happen. But that's an important game too. All right.

Well, let's move to that playoff pitcher because it looks like in the AFC, it's coming down to Miami of Baltimore. Or do Vegas and the Patriots have any chance at this point? And then NFC outside of the east, I mean, it really doesn't look like anybody at Arizona, you know, has as much of a chance at it. What do we look at that playoff picture-wise? Yeah, I think you're pretty much right. If I'm looking at some of the schedules, like, let's start with the AFC, the Vegas Raiders,

have the second easiest schedule, but the number one easiest schedule is Baltimore. So the two easiest schedules of the whole NFL are both sitting right now just outside the playoffs number eight number nine respectively if you're seeded them all the way past seven um so miami is going to have to hang on for dear life Miami has to hang on for dear life and miami plays buffalo uh which is a good team obviously week 17 um this week uh Miami plays the patriots so Miami has to hang on for dear life the cults are in really good shape right at nine and four and the Colts have already, well, the Colts lost to the Ravens, right?

So that matchup, that head-to-head, the Colts have the tiebreaker there. And they're one game up in the standings. So that's not over either. And even the Cleveland Browns at number five in terms of like the three wild cards, that's Cleveland, Indy, and the Dolphins. The Ravens beat the Browns also twice this season.

So both those teams are only one game up, over Baltimore right now. You know, so I think that Baltimore Ravens, this is a team that got completely ravaged by COVID. And if they're getting, they just got Mark Andrews back for the first time last week, if they start getting back on track and remember, they have the number one easiest schedule the rest of the way,

not a bad team to maybe place a future bet on to do something in the postseason here, whether it's to make the playoffs, That dude wins road games in the playoffs too. Harbaugh has got a, I mean, in terms, you put him up against anybody. They have gone on the road at one playoff games, a lot. And the interesting thing about them is they are a difficult team to prepare for due to their style and how unique it is. So we've seen teams like the Tennessee Titans come out and jump on their defense or jump on the Ravens' defense.

defense early and get a lead. We've seen the same thing with the Kansas City Chiefs. Jump on them early and get a lead. That's the recipe to put the Ravens in a bind is to take their offense and prevent them from doing what they want to do and make them do a drop back passing offense because you're down by double digits on the scoreboard. And if any of these teams are capable of doing that, right, the Chiefs, theoretically, the bills, even the Titans are capable of doing that. But can the Ravens, yeah, you're down by a score, but can you hang in there? Can you create drives against some of these defenses that may be a little bit weaker? They're always going to be a tough out.

Do you think that win against the Giants got Arizona in? God, I just, I just, I mean, Kyler. I know you have a bit of believer, but I mean, like at this point, with that Vikings, you know, I mean, it's tough to get there. I mean, like, even if, even if Arizona loses, you know, one or two, the rest of the way, it's going to be tough to jump them. Yes, I agree. I think the bottom half of the NFC, like 7, 8, 9 are far worse than the bottom half of the AFC. We're talking about like the dolphins, the Ravens, and the Raiders, and compared them to the Cardinals, the Vikings, and the Bears. I mean, we've got much better competition in that range in terms of what I think,

of these teams in the AFC than the NFC. So the NFC is going to come down like the Cardals have a top 10 most difficult schedule the rest of the way. The Vikings, they have a top 10 most difficult schedule the rest of the way as well. In fact, they're right next to Arizona from that respect. And you've got the Chicago Bears are also sitting there at six and seven trying to get in. And the Chicago Bears have a little bit easier schedule. It's going to be really interesting to see obviously the Vikings hold.

the tiebreaker right now over the bears because of a head-to-head record. But it's going to be interesting to see, you know, like they're able to call plays better with Mitch Trubisky. The Nick Foll's experiment didn't work, just like it didn't work in a couple of his other stops when he was like handed the reins more during the regular season. He definitely is a guy who seems to be able to come in, get the job done off the bench. But like as the number one starter give this offense to this QB, it has. really worked out for Nick Foll's new play caller and Bill Laser with Mitchell

Trubisky. It'll be interesting to see if they could try to go on a little bit of a run here. But I would have to agree with you reluctantly with Arizona simply because Kyler Murray seems to be getting a little bit healthier. And I think they're, you know, much like we were just talking about if the Ravens can get a spot there, I think that if he gets healthy, because he has been obviously banged up and they face the right team, they could be, I know you're not a believer,

but I watch them more, I think they could be very dangerous. Because much like Baltimore, if he gets back to a team that he could make plays with his feed against, you know, that's a quarterback that could end up with 120 yards in a game. Same with Lamar, right?

And it's like you, you can't account for that. I mean, unless you've got a defense that can really spy him, you know, he's got the great receiver, and it's the whole, it's third and seven, and if this guy could take off and run for 26 yards, you got a problem on your hands.

He really did that at the beginning of the year when they were dynamite. You know, he did that, and he has not in a long time, but you know that's in the arsenal, and I could just see that happening come playoff time, you know, that it happens again. We've seen it in the past. We saw Josh Allen. running for a bunch of yards.

We seen Mahomes running for a bunch of yards. You know, back in the day, we saw Kaepernick just destroy the Packers, you know, running the ball. And it's like, man, you get to the playoffs. I still think a guy like that, he would scare me, you know, that's the kind of, that's a kind of weird team that could pick you off. You are 100% correct. The thing that I love about these postseason stretches, postseason runs is that it's winter go home.

and there's no point not to let your QB try to run. And that is the one thing that you will always force defenses into conflict defending. Like, they're either accounting for it or they're not. And you got a guy like Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes. I mean, deadly, just deadly, backbreaking plays when, because this is the thing about... Josh Allen, too. Well, yeah, I didn't get to... Josh Allen.

Ryan Tannenhill can do it a little bit. Obviously, Lamar Jackson, Tua maybe. There are a number of teams that obviously, you know, their quarterbacks can't, right? Philip Rivers can't run to save his life. Ben Rossisberger are not really going to run. Jared Goff actually ran a little bit in the last game.

How about Hurts? How about Hertz? He came in. They finally won a freaking game. He ran for a hundred and something yards. Right. And so the thing about it is, what we already know is the most efficient play that you could call is a pass play.

QB runs. designed runs are more efficient than designed RB runs. But another type of run that's very difficult to defend is simply a run due to good coverage down the field. You call a pass play. Oh, my God. The defense actually figured out a way to cover our receivers this one play. And yet the QB is still running for a first down. Like those are backbreaking plays that are very difficult to overcome.

I'll give you another one, Warren. What we saw the other night in that epic Monday night football game. But think about the huge touchdown down the stretch that Cleveland got. It's Baker. It was all covered up. And he took off to the end zone and he was able to get there with that epic slide into the end zone. But he made that play. That is exactly what you're talking about.

They called their play. It was covered up. There was no place to throw that ball. But he found a little lane. and that's what, like a 15-yard run? I mean, it's a foot race to the end zone. And if you got a guy that can do that, that is very troublesome. Absolutely.

And that's why I encourage teams that I work with, like, if your QB is capable of running the football, like on these pivotal situations, if the defense happens to cover you up. And you can look at the analytics and you can see how strong defenses have been on the season and last few games, etc., uncertain down and distances. against coverage runs, like runs where there's coverage or there's simply an open run lane

for a quarterback, like a variety of different factors as to why the QB might be running the football here. But it's just a backbreaker. Rather than throwing an incompletion, it's just an absolute backbreaker to have a QB gain five, six yards, maybe a first down, or just prevent a sack slash. Like you get rivers back there, right? Everything's covered up. He's either throwing it away. Maybe he's taking a sack, although he's been getting rid of the ball pretty quickly. But if you have a QB that actually can turn an incompletion or a sack into positive yards on a pass play that the defense happened to cover, like, it's just so massive from an expected points perspective.

All right. Let's do one more rewind to this past week. Is there any, was there any coaching or any trends that drew your ire? The source of the war and frustration watching games on Sunday or this past weekend, week 14. Yeah, and there are a number of Viking fans that don't like this, but it's the Minnesota Vikings and it's their strategy. Look, I am glad that they decided, hey, we're going to come in and try to run the football and we're going to get, can we get 100 yards here? I don't know. Maybe we can get 100 yards against the number one run defense in the NFL and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

And, you know, I'm happy for them that they were able to achieve that goal. They got 100 yards rushing out of Dalvin Cook. And you know what came with that? They controlled the time of possession. They had a two to one edge in time of possession. And I would not be shocked if Mike Zimmer, like one of their goals going into this game is, we're going to figure out a way to run the football because that's what we want to do. We want to establish the ground game.

It'll keep our defense, which we don't love, off the field. If we could get a time of possession advantage and we can run the ball, I like our chances. this is a great game plan. And it would not shock me if that was kind of the offensive strategy that Mike Zimmer in his mind's eye would have liked to take into Tampa Bay to try to win that game. The problem with that strategy is this.

Because you're calling a lot of runs on early downs, these runs don't gain enough yards to bypass third downs. If you take their average rushing, and I know they're not running on first and second down every single time, but their average rushing yards on their first down runs, plus their average rushing yards on their second down runs, still puts them into third down every single time, if we're looking at the average.

They're not totaling up to over 10 yards. They're still facing, and true enough, they end up facing 20, 20 third or fourth down plays. These are obvious passing situations. And Kirk Cousins, he was sacked a lot, he was pressured a lot. He was sacked on zero first down dropbacks, zero. only two sacks on early down dropback. So first and second down passes over the quarter.

Only two sacks in total throughout the entire game. He had a total of six sacks in the game, which tells you that most of these sacks are coming. When he's dropping it back on third or fourth down, it's an obvious passing situation. So you need to stay out of these obvious passing situations. Another thing I didn't understand, Dalvin Cook.

Yes, I realized you're giving him a lot of plays. You're building your offense around him. but a running back is just inefficient. You're going 26 plays to Dalvin Cook. He's averaging 4.2 yards per play. You go four plays to Adam Thielen. Four. How do you have a 26 to 4?

Adam Thieland's averaging 9.8 yards per play. Dalvin Cook's at 4.2, and you're going to Thielen only four times. You have to figure out a way to design more things to, and it's not like you're winning this game. You are losing this game. You're down by 11 at halftime. You're down by 17 when you touch the ball. the very first time at the start of the second half for your offense, you're down by 17 points. And this is the most confounding thing to me.

Let's pretend that you're happy. You think it's bad luck, it's variance. Our kickers missing a bunch of kicks. We can win this game. You're down by 17 points. What does this mean to you, Chris? It should mean a couple of things. Number one, damn it, we're down three scores.

We're going to have to figure out a way to score a lot of times here. And it must also mean that our defense has given up. a bunch of points. And true enough, the prior four possessions that Tampa Bay had when you get the ball back the first time offensively in the third quarter, you've given up the last four possessions. Your defense's given up three touchdowns to Brady and one field goal. They've scored every single time that they got the ball. You can't just expect my defense is going to shut out Tampa Bay's offense the rest of the way. I'll score three scores. I'll score two touchdowns and a field goal and I'll put this game into overtime.

Like, that cannot be your mindset. Your mindset has to be our defense is going to allow something else. We're going to have to score more than just three times probably to even force this game into overtime. How are we going to do that? You're not going to do that by going slow as shit. And what this team was doing? Think about this logically, Chris. So they take their very first drive to go down the field.

They take over eight and a half minutes. that's over obviously half of the third quarter and you're down by three scores. But listen to this. Think about this in your mind. Think about a football field. How many yards are on the football field? Do you realize that they were averaging 7.8 yards per minute the entirety of the second half? Like, you are moving the ball not even eight yards in the span of a minute when you have the football on offense.

So like, I do not understand. I'm watching this game. I'm like, do these guys? guys not realize they're going slow as shit? Do these guys not realize that they need to pick up the pace here to stand a chance to get back into this game? I mean, like, I know the field goal kicker was terrible. I mean, it was a joke. I was tweeting out memes of Tony Snells, horrible games and other basketball players who are like playing 26 minutes, score nothing, no rebounds, no steals, no assists, no blocks, no points, like producing nothing. That's exactly what this kicker was doing out there doing absolutely

nothing for the Vikings, but it's just a mindset. It's the philosophy. I just down on the scoreboard, I do not understand it one bit. It was very frustrating. Of all the things that I was frustrated by, it's kind of like that decision-making process to me was like, I realize I'm not that shocked, but seeing the numbers, it's just like, holy crap, like seeing the numbers after the fact, it's like, how do you guys not see this too? Last thing to get to before we get out of here today, in honor of Deshawn Watson, who it's so frustrating to watch him. He is such an immensely talented player. I've loved him since watching him at Clemson. And obviously, his career got started off well. His coach is gone,

Bill O'Brien, his receiver got suspended. I mean, he's trying to throw to Kiki Kutte. And then, of course, he's in harm's away constantly, constantly. And so in honor of Deshawn, to put Deshaun aside. We clearly would both agree if we could extract him and mercifully move him to a better situation, he would be at the very top of the list. Who else? Give me a player that you would mercifully extract from their situation and move to a better situation than the one they are in. There is no doubt. Everybody knows what I'm going to say, but it's Justin Herbert. no doubt that everybody knows is I this this coaching staff from the play calling to the structure of this team to their offensive philosophy and mindset like we have got to get Justin Herbert

with a coach that understands efficiency that understands proper play calling they think that they're protecting him by calling inefficient runs on early downs. Like, we're beyond the point that he might get, like, they get Austin Echler back after weeks of being gone. And then the whole game plan is to throw the football to Austin Echler or hand the ball off to Austin Echler. Meanwhile, you're falling behind on the scoreboard continually because this is a terrible philosophy.

The dude's just coming back from injury. You're not gaining anything with these runs, yet you continue to do it over and over. And so now we're dropping Justin Herbert back on third in obvious passing situations. and this has been continuing all season long. And, you know, that franchise, right, has been with Anthony Lynn for a couple of years. He was a former running backs coach, and I'm not, I don't know who the candidates were at that time,

but we need their front office, we need their ownership to find the right man. And I just don't know that I have confidence based upon who they selected and how long they've stuck with him, that they're going to have optimal strategy in picking their next head coach to replace Anthony Lynn, which is why I want, and it's a great opportunity, right? You've got a stud young quarterback who has excelled despite things stacked against him.

I think he's set to break some rookie passing records, so touchdown records and stuff. Like, I don't know what they are offhand, but he's set to break some of those despite everything falling against him. And you've got a new stadium. Like those two things should make this job extremely, extremely attractive. I hope they get the right guy for that job, but I don't have confidence. And I would love to have Justin Herbert with an ownership group and a team that I truly believe in their philosophy offensively to maximize his talent, which would raise the waterline.

level of that entire franchise. If your main goal needs to be, who's going to optimize Justin Herbert? That will raise everything with your entire franchise. That has to be the goal of your next coaching move. It's not all these other things they could do. Maximize fucking Justin Herbert. Who's going to do that? I was just thinking about this the other day, too, Warren.

Like, if their own medical staff doesn't stab Tyrod Taylor, I really wonder when we would have seen Herbert. I mean, I don't know if they would have gone the tour route like Miami did, right, where it's Fitzpatrick because by all accounts, right, Tyra Taylor's great guy, great leader, probably very popular in the locker room. And so it was all these disgusting circumstances, which led to Herbert having to even play in a game that he wasn't supposed to play in and then ball out in that situation. But who knows? Honestly, like I really don't know. They clearly, they went through camp. They looked at one guy

and they looked at the other guy and they chose Tyron Taylor. So how would I have some level of confidence that they would have ended up on Herbert and who knows how many games we would have seen? We may not be seeing Justin Herbert play until right now, right? I think that's a rational thought. I will say, however,

that the difference between Fitzpatrick was he was actually winning games. I think this ceiling on this Chargers team would have been, lower than what it is now, and they're already not winning games because their coaching staff is terrible. Thus, I think that the charges would have been not forced, but certainly it wouldn't be a tough decision to say, look, we're one in five. Let's see what the kid can do. So it wouldn't have been week two against the Kansas City Chiefs. Absolutely not. But it probably is early on

in the season, and it's not as big of a decision as the Miami situation. but I hear you. I mean, like, I'm thinking back at this point in time to some of the clips from hard knocks over the summer. Remember, the chargers and the Rams were the two teams previewed in hard knocks and a couple of the defensive players making comments about Justin Herbert flinging the ball around in camp and how special he looked at that point in time. And clearly, the coaching staff didn't think he was ready to start week one. And that's fine. I mean, like, you could give the guy a little bit of time. It was a weird, and it was a weird offseason. You get a little on that. Yeah, so I don't completely fault, like, we got to call a spade of spade. There's a lot,

enough other things to criticize that coaching staff about for not knowing that Justin Herbert would be this great, this early. But, and so, like, I can't fault them. I just don't know what week we would have seen the kid. Exactly. And he's been a joy. And, all right, the guy I would extract from a situation. And it's interesting because you're going with a very young guy. I'm going with an old guy who is also going to be playing for a different coach next year. And that is Matt Stafford. I have always liked Matt Stafford. And I think Matt Stafford is good. And Matt Stafford has played for like the worst organization. He had the one time where he had called one and they won some games and he went to the playoffs. But like it's now, he can still

fling it. And it's like, I would just love, if I could extract somebody, I would just, you know, it's going to be sad when the book closes. And it's like, yeah, he was always like a dangerous guy and he had a million yards and he had all these touchdowns and whatever. But, you know, the career is the career. And, you know, he was never really on outstanding teams. Because there are some times where I look at guys and I say, that guy could have won a lot of game if he was in a different situation. I felt this way about Philip Rivers for a long time. Philofer is going to be back in the playoffs. You can knock what you want about Philip,

but when they had good teams, he won games. And that guy will forever, in my book, be a legend for playing in a playoff game with the damn torn ACL. So he'll always have my respect. But Stafford's the same way. Like that guy, you would have to cut off his head to get him off the field. And it would be so awesome if we could just see like a swan song where he goes to like a real team.

at the very end of his career with the chance. Because I was listening to, you know, Pat McAfee has on Aaron Rogers every week. Those are great interviews. And he was talking about Stafford. And I'm like, it's one of those game recognizes game things to me, right? And Rogers is like,

that dude in Detroit, I mean, the stuff he does with the football. And like, like he watches him in all. This is Aaron Rogers, right? And I've always kind of had this feeling that, Man, this Stafford could just be in a different, with some good coaching and a real roster around him,

this guy could be a winning quarterback. This guy could win you some games that'd be pretty dangerous and have some really good moments because he's won his share a game playing for a rat team for so many years. So I would just love to see at the end, like the swan song, while he's still got a little football left, him going and playing for a real team. instead of a 15th head coach. Yeah, no, first of all, Aaron Rogers, like, such an introspective guy, right? Like, I enjoy listening to him talk, especially when he's in a relaxed situation and can just discuss things.

He's a fascinating player to see interviewed in any capacity. But with regard to Stafford, I don't disagree. With regard to Philip Rivers, I mean, how ironic is it that we're talking about removing, like, the legendary Philip Rivers from the Chargers? and that's the guy who we wanted to see go. And we're also talking about removing Justin Herbert from the Chargers. It's like that franchise, like we got it. We got to fix the franchise before you can fix what's going on underneath. But absolutely don't disagree at all.

It was nice, right, to see Philip Rivers. The one guy that I've been hoping would actually get a ring before he retires because of what he's meant to football. And it's not going to show up probably in a lot of records. it's not going to show up as like some guy that like guys that are just getting into the NFL right now the past three or four years are going to be like oh philip rivers oh man what a goat but like you and i know from studying football for years and years like how great this guy has been his longevity is toughness like everything about him like i just love watching guys like that and so it was nice to see him paired with frank rike and and hopefully the colts are able to do something here um down the stretch and and and philip rivers is able to go out the way he wants to go out, whether it's this season or not. But playing in real games, playing in real games, you know what I mean? Playing and meaningful games and having a coaching staff that is able to fix the small issues, right? It's always been like, oh, Philip Rivers just

one score game. He's always going to lose. He's always going to throw interceptions at the end. But he gets with an actually a good coach that understands how to coach him and teach him what to do in these games. And all of a sudden, Philip Rivers isn't making those same mistakes every single week. And the Colter winning games that he would have been losing if he was still with the Chargers coaching staff. So, I mean, people don't realize, like, how big a factor coaching plays into all of this. And, like, I would agree, Matthew Stafford absolutely has put in the hard work. He's literally shattered bones and bled and shed blood, sweat, and tears for the Lions franchise. it would be interesting to see if he got put into a better situation

of what he would be able to do with a new team. Like imagine if he ended up being the quarterback and like, I'm just throwing a team out, like in San Francisco or something like that. That would be great. Dallas for that matter, I mean, look, I want Dak back, but I mean, he's a Dallas kid, right? I'm just saying some other,

like somebody that's got real weapons, a real coach, and could win some football games, right? Just give him that chance, because I feel like so many times he's just, He has really, he's been behind the eight ball for so many years, right? It's not like there's been a bunch of great players in Detroit on those teams with him. I don't disagree. I would love to see him somewhere.

Last thing before he would get out of here. I want you to issue an apology. Uh-oh. Yeah. We need to do this. We need to make this right. You need to apologize to Wade Phillips. Wade Phillips in Dallas went 13 and 3, 9 and 7, 11, and 5.

and then was one in seven when he ended up getting fired in 2010. But prior to that, he went 13 and 3, 9 and 7, and 11 and 5 in his first three years at the Cowboys coach. I would give anything to have the Wade Phillips era back at this point. And so for you to have the Freudian slip where you said Jerry Jones is supporting Wade Phillips, in fairness, Wade Phillips won a lot more games than I'm watching Mike McCarthy win. Absolutely. I will gladly 100% apologize to Wade Phillips. I am a big Wade Phillips fan. I love his defenses, you know, as a head coach. Look, some guys are better as just coordinators, play callers than they are as head coaches. That's right. And I think Wade Phillips falls into that category, but he deserves to be back in the NFL, in my opinion.

I would love to see him get a chance because he absolutely knows how to call a defense. and I'm a massive Wade Phillips fan. They're saying the Raiders. They're saying the Raiders. It completely was a Freudian slip. It was basically a body type thing. I apologize for like typecasting the Dallas Cowboys coach is there. You know how awesome a coach you have to be for people to still want you at 73?

He's 73. And the thing is, if he was happily retired and did like the Bill Cowher, where, I mean, we'll see if anybody like approaches Bill Cowher with like a knockout, knocked the ball out of the park offer this season. But, like, Howard's been like, hey, I'm fine. I'm fine being retired. Like, if Phillips said that and really wanted to stay retired, like, nobody would be mentioning him.

But he wants to get back in. And because of that, I think a team needs to be interested because he is a good defensive coordinator, in my opinion. And I think the NFL is better with having Wade in there. I mean, God. I take him back in Dallas over this bum Mike Nolan any day. True enough, true enough. Any day.

In fact, then it wouldn't have been a Freudian slip. There you go. Then you could have said Jerry Jones is supporting Wade Phillips. Once again, there's probably a lot of water under that bridge, though. I doubt that will happen. Warren, we got a lot of great games coming up this weekend. I'll be listening to you in House, break them all down on Friday. And remember, stay tuned on the ringer NFL show feed.

Every single day. Kevin Clark and the gang will be back with you tomorrow. We will talk to you next week. Thank you.