The Ringer NFL Show - Which Fantasy Quarterbacks Do You Want in 2019? l The Dantasy Football Podcast

Episode Date: July 29, 2019

Danny Kelly and Danny Heifetz make their triumphant return in 2019 by declaring which fantasy football quarterback they trust with their life, which quarterback’s bandwagon is so full it’s destined to crash, and why Josh Allen is better than Baker Mayfield. Hosts: Danny Heifetz and Danny Kelly Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, it's Liz Kelly and welcome to the Ringer Podcast Network. We're debuting a brand new three-part podcast series with Quentin Tarantino and Amy Nicholson called Quentin Tarantino's feature presentation. Here's a quick trailer with more info. If you go to Quentin Tarantino's new Beverly Cinema in Los Angeles, you're going to hear that feature presentation song. And when the movie starts, you're going to step in to Quentin Tarantino's brain. If you own a movie, you own a print of a film, it feels like it's your movie. consequently it's like if people really like the movie and they go wow that movie was terrific you know my response was oh thank you very much it was like i took credit for it because well

it was my print so and i put the whole thing together to show it so i actually felt like they were complimenting me this is quentin tarentino's feature presentation a new three-part podcast miniseries hosted by me film critic amy nicholson of unschooled and halloween unmasked before the release of his new film once upon a time in hollywood quentin and I sat down to talk about five films that he's programmed at the new Beverly, and we wound up talking about his life, his work, and how this movie Crazy Kid became a director who defined a generation. Waiting for the lights to go down, and no one knows what to expect.

Is this going to be one of those special times? Is it not going to be one of those special times? It's going to be a forgettable time. The first episode of Quentin Tarantino's feature presentation is out later this week. It is the closest thing to sharing a bucket of popcorn with the man himself, so subscribe now wherever you hear podcasts. Welcome to Josh Allen's world. We are just living in it.

And welcome to the Danesie Football Podcast, brought to you by the Ringer. Podcast Network. Can I do that? Am I allowed to do the Ringer like Bill does? Sure. Is that okay? We are thrilled to be back with you in 2019. I am joined by the one, the only, the hero fantasy needs.

The hero fantasy football deserves my co-host, my co-danny, the Dark Knight Danny Kelly. D.K., what is on your mind? Danny, my brain is mush. That's what's on my mind. I'm sleep deprived, I'm tired, but I'm hanging in there, and I'm excited about this year. Well, that reminds me. We got to go into why. Well, it took 30 seconds for a sound cue.

Jim, can we get like air horns? Because D.K. is the father to a human baby. A real human baby. An infant child. All right. I am. We need the scouting report. What are measurables, pro frame?

He projects as, is like, Michael Phelps 2.0. Really long, big flipper-like feet, huge hands. It was like a porpoise? Flipper-like feet. Yeah, I'm basically holding out all hope that he's going to be Michael Phelps 2.0, the next great Olympian swimmer. Craig, Jim, how are you guys doing? Hey, we're back.

What's up? Craig, how was your summer? She was great. Can't wait for saying football. Jim, are you all smiles over there? Always. See, Jim is, wow. Wow.

He sung a little. Wow. Jim is thrilled to me back. That was a tremolo in that. Jim's quite the performer. We are thrilled to be back. We've got, over the next few weeks, we're going to devote an entire episode to every position.

We're going to go over sleepers and duds, undervalued and overvalue, draft strategy, the top 50, a big picture look at the end. We could not be more excited to be here. Wow. I think we got this. So this year, for the preview, we're going to be doing some awards for these positions.

Participation trophy generation. in on the sensation. We'll explain them as we go. It's not that complicated. You'll figure it out. I think as the kids say, let's send it. Sure. Is that the kids say?

Yeah, I mean, you are a kid. Oh, he's man-child. It's boy man. Who knows? All right, let's do it. First up, who's your guy award? Everybody has a guy at each position heading into a draft.

D.K. Right now, who is your guy a quarterback this year? I am high on Deshawn Watson this year for the Texans. I think, I saw Mike Claypointed as out on Twitter. I think it's really true. like Patrick Mahomes is completely overshadowed how great Watson has been through 23 career games. He has 52 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, 8.3 yards per attempt, 66 completion percentage. I mean, he's just been amazing.

Add in 820 yards, seven touchdowns on the ground. He's not even 24 years old yet. So, I mean, he's just, I think he's still like, obviously Mahomes is the great fantasy player, but Watson isn't super far behind. I think he's going to really go off this year. You get a full season from Hopkins, if please, please get a full season from Will Fuller because Hopkins numbers just explode, or I should say Watson's numbers explode with Fuller in there. Add Kiki Kootie into the offense, Jordan Thomas.

To me, it's just this offense has a chance to just go off. Even though Watson doesn't run quite as much, you know, he might not run quite as much this year just to try to keep him healthy. He's still one of the top running quarterbacks. I just think his upside is really, really high. I mean, you can nab other guys around that spot. So Kenyon Drake, you know, Chris Carson, there's a lot of running backs around that ADP, which is around 50 right now.

So you don't mind Watson at that kind of position in the draft? Well, I mean, I just think he, his upside is to the point where obviously, you know, there's a lot of people that subscribe to the late round quarterback philosophy. Like baby tron. You're not going to be able to get Watson like late rounds. But, you know, the value he brings as a runner can really kind of give you that, that edge. I just like him a lot. I don't play a ton of one quarterback leaves, to be totally honest. In two quarterback leagues, he is, I think, one of the top guys I'm looking at. But

yeah, I definitely get your point. Like, if you're going to wait on a quarterback, he's a little bit high in his ADP, but in two quarterback leagues or Superflex or whatever, I love the guy. Full-time, Craig. Do you concur? I do. The only thing I wanted to ask D.K. about was just the Sacks issue. And he had a league high 62 takedowns last year, which is the fifth most in NFL history. What do you think about that? I mean, yeah, that's definitely a concern. The offensive line continues to be a concern. But like, honestly, it hasn't really mattered all that much. Obviously, he got hurt as a rookie. But I just think, you know, the way he's able to scramble around, the way he's able to deal with pressure, like, it just doesn't really matter.

I just think from a fantasy point of view, he's still going to go off even if the offensive line continues to be a concern. So speaking of scrambling, my guy this year is Lamar Jackson. and on the Ravens. Last year he set the all-time record for rush attempts by a quarterback. He only started seven games. He had, like, it's crazy. So in the seven starts he had, he had 119,

that's four shy of Michael Vick's career high in seven games. It's 17 carries per game. Do you know who had more than 17 carries a game in 2018? Who? Todd Gurley. C.J. Anderson, in the two games he replaced Todd Gurley. Zeke Elliott, Chris Carson.

that is the list. He had more than Sequin, more than Christian McCaffrey. So attempts, not touches. But the point is, he was QB9 in this span. He's currently going as QB18. Now, they're said they're going to try to rush him a little less this year. But less is still a shitload. And he's already made big strides as a passer this year.

He did briefly forget to throw a spiral. And there were some issues like the charges really kind of figured him out at the end. But there's so much value. I mean, he's basically, he's going four spots ahead of Greg Zerline. he's free. So I can't imagine a more person I'm enthusiastically taking as a backup. And if he blows up in week one, then he's on my bench and not on waivers. So love Lamar Jackson this year.

Did you hear what John Harbaugh said? Yeah, he wants to run more. He wants to run at a level not seen since the Marshall Plan. I remember that one. Yeah. So obviously there's the concern that they're going to back off and not run him quite as much this season. I think there's, I mean, that's probably going to happen. but still they're going to probably run him a lot.

It's not like they're going to completely change the game plan and have him be just a drop back pass or whatever. He may not run 17 times a game like he did last year, but he's still going to probably lead all quarterbacks in rushing attempts. And the way that they have, you know, that run game, the diversity of it, the way that they're going to attack defenses, I think Jackson is going to be a focal point of that in the run game. So I think, you know, I definitely agree with you.

I think he's probably undervalued right now. As long as he can stay healthy, though, that's a big question. Yeah, and if he does, he's a lock to break his own record for rush attempts by a quarterback. And one thing you want with quarterbacks is a high floor, and his rushing ability gives him that. And if he's getting drafted in the same realm as like James Winston, James Winston, James Winston's floor is a grave end. That's going to be a theme as we talk. And believe me, I wasn't kidding about the Josh Allen at the top.

The rushing is going to be a theme. Craig, who's your guy? My guy is Andrew Luck, just a little overview from last year. he had the most efficient year of his career, 67.3 completion percentage, which was his best by 3.8. 2.3 interception percentage, which is his lowest by 2013. He was the QB5 last year, despite his worst rushing year of his career by a lot. He ran for only 148 yards and zero touchdowns, and his average is about 312 with almost four touchdowns. So the things I really wanted to touch on was Pace. The Colts led the league in seconds per play last year. They ran the fifth most place. Health, now in year two. Lux, I actually think,

think this is the year he'll take off. This is like Gordon Hayward on the Celtics. Like you need a season and then you have the season. In the first three starts of Lux 2018, he attempted or his yards per attempt was only 5.34 yards. And he had a 5 to 3 touchdown interception ratio. And after that it completely took off. So the slow start the season will not repeat with luck. And the last thing. That was just the injury thing, right? Yeah, it's just that shoulder. Just fully, yeah, his shoulder. And then the last. We wish he did snowboarding, but that's neither here. You're right. Keep him off the snow. And then last is protection. He was sacked 18 times in 16 games last year, and he averaged 35 sacks over the last four seasons. He went from the league's worst to the league's best sack rate. So the sack rate's the perfect thing to end up because, D.K., I believe luck is your bandwagon pick, and part of which is that sack rate. Yeah, so the bandwagon pick is the guy who you'd like, but you're a little bit worried too many people are in on that bandwagon, so it just makes you a little bit nervous. And so

everything that Craig said is exactly why I'm a little bit worried and a little bit leery about luck. It was his most efficient year of his career by far. The Sackright thing was outstanding. They might be able to keep that up this year. Maybe it's due to scheme. Maybe it's their

offensive line is just that good. But I worry a little bit that's going to kind of regress towards the mean a little bit in that area. That could affect Luck's bottom line. They didn't do a ton, I don't think, to necessarily add a bunch of talent to their to their offense obviously Paris Campbell is an X factor and if he could develop as a rookie and be like a big

threat for them that will kind of change my thinking but we've seen you know a lot of times rookie receivers don't make a huge impact in their first year especially guys like Campbell who doesn't have a ton of experience like running in an NFL route tree or whatever so that kind of worries me a little bit his touchdown rate spiked a little bit last season, 6.1, it was above his career average of 5.12. I could see that dropping again. The pace does, you know, kind of the pace of the Colts offense is definitely a good thing when it comes of fantasy. But I think it's just the what you're sort of having to pay for luck now. I just think there's a chance he could kind of regress and not really pay off at his current

ADP. I love Andrew Luck this year for mostly for real football. I think he's the best bet odds on right now for MVP. But, I am wary of where he's going for his ADP, even though I love him to have a huge season because I, so when you mentioned touchdown rate, DK, and touchdown rate is among the stickiest of stats for quarterbacks, and if you're above or below your career rate, you generally come back to it.

I think Buck's an exception because so much of his has come in this weird stretch where he was injured but playing through an injury. But in 2014, he led the league in touchdowns, and his touchdown rate was higher than last year. So I think that he has a chance to stay at where he was. And that offensive line, they basically went from deep passing to shorter passes, getting him out of his hands, I'm not worried about him as an injury risk.

But I agree. He's just too many people are on it. I mean, he's overall right now, the QB2, his overall ADP is 45. So like people are all in on luck. It's just a little bit expensive for me. That's all. I like him. I think he's going to have a solid season.

I basically feel the exact same way about my bandwagon pick, which is this pains me to say it's Baker Mayfield on the Browns. I love Baker. Like I can't tell you how much I love him. Like when Freddie Kit, our boy, Freddie Kitchens, our guy, he became the offensive coordinator in week nine and it was I think as close to an overnight shift as an offensive you'll see along with actually the Ravens last year as you'll see in the NFL.

They went from Baker's QBR went from 36 to 70 in the second half. His completion percentage from 58 to 68 yards per attempt from 6.6 to 8.6 which is a huge jump. That's tied for 29 and across the full season to being tied for third with Mahomes. Touchdown percentage doubled like sack percentage went from 8 to 1.1.

point eight is insane. Yeah. But everyone's figured this out. And now he's a guy who's in his second year with, it's so obvious that the value's been taken out of it because everyone's so excited that he did all that. Now they have Odell in a full off season to do it that he's going in the 50s along with guys who've been the number one quarterback either by year or by per game average on a year,

which is Deshawn, Luck, Aaron Rogers, and Mahomes have all been the QB1. And Baker hasn't. I don't think that the value is there for his 80s. That bums me out, but I don't think I'll have many leagues this year. Yeah, I mean, I get that. I think Mayfield, you know, I think he is going to have a great year. But, I mean, in one quarterback leagues particularly, you're looking for value at that position.

And, yeah, I think the way he's risen compared to last year, I mean, it would have been awesome to get him last year. But, yeah, I definitely understand what you're saying. So moving on, bet your life guy. And this is what it sounds like. If you had to bet your life on one guy in that position having an awesome year, who is it? I mean, this one's easy.

Patrick Mahomes, the chiefs. I mean, obviously, the fear is that regression is coming and it might well come. But even if it does, he's still going to be an insane, he's still going to put up insane stats. I mean, especially in that offense, the speed they have, you know, got Kelsey, Tyree Kill didn't get suspended. They got Sammy Watkins coming back. Now they added McCull Hardman, who's, you know, 4-3 speed just to add into that, that offense. you know, obviously with Andy Reid calling plays, they're going to find ways to get guys open. I just think Mahomes, his floor is still higher than pretty much any other quarterback in the NFL.

So that's why, I mean, he might not do what he did last year, but even if he regress is still going to be, you know, quarterback one type guy. Yeah, I agree with everything you just said. As Matthew Barry pointed out in his great 100 facts column, he could, you could chop 10 touchdowns off his total and he would still be the QB1. But I'm still not drafting him I agree he's my bet my life guy But his ADP is 21 It's just way too high for a quarterback this year All about the late round stuff

He was on the most championship squads Of all players in ESPN leagues But he was going outside the top 100 And the value is just not there this year So right All right now Oh this I'm so excited My irrational rookie

Slash Unproven player love Self-explanet Who's your irrational rookie love DK I mean, it's easy again. This is Kyler Murray, the Cardinals. I think obviously there's tons of reason to fear what the Cardinals' offense is going to do this year. It was the worst offense in the NFL last year. Bringing in Cliff Kingsbury is a major gamble for that team.

Obviously, they're going to be installing what we think is going to be an air rate offense. But I just, I'm a believer in Murray. Even though he's 5'10 or under or whatever, I'm still a believer in him. I think he's got incredible accuracy. he adds a lot to the fantasy world as a runner. I think he's basically like Tariq Cohen-style runner, very, very, very fast, explosive. He's going to make hay on both design runs.

I think they're going to do a lot of the read option. And as a scrambler, because that offensive line is garbage, or it could be garbage. They're going to run a ton of plays. I think it was actually in that 100 Fax article from Matthew Berry. The Texas Tech passed 61% of the time from 2013 to 2018 under Kingsbury, which is the second highest rate

in the FBS. They run a ton of plays and they run really fast. David Johnson, in an interview recently, said that the team's plan is to run 90 to 95 games, plays per game,

which is completely unheard of in the NFL. No team is actually averaged more than 80. So it's just one of those things where they're not going to reach that, but they're going to be running tons and tons of plays up tempo,

no huddle. So there's just going to be a lot of chances for fantasy points and fantasy volume in that offense. I think Keller Murray has the talent and the skill set to kind of to do, you know, to run that offense. I think Kingsbury told Peter King that they're going to run basically what Murray ran

at Oklahoma under Lincoln Riley. So I think he can hit the ground running relative. You know, obviously there's always a learning curve when it comes to with rookie quarterbacks. But I think he's going to be a fantasy factor this year. Yeah. I mean, whether Cliff Kingsbury can make the air raid work is obviously like this big mystery and really exciting. And then whether they can tweak it around week six when defenses maybe figured out is

a bigger question. But that's more important for like David Johnson or like Christian Kirk. Kyler Murray is not free, but he's going like 11th, 12th round. Like there's not nearly as much risk. So it's also to just be fun. Like if you believe it all and fantasy should be fun, like, Kyle, he would be amazing. Speaking of fun, my irrational love is so irrational. Josh Allen, Joshy.

Yeah. I almost put him here too, yeah. Here are the players who had more fantasy points from Josh Allen than Josh Allen from week 12 to week 16, which is the heart of the fantasy season. Patrick Mahomes, Deshawn Watson, Christian McCaffrey, Derek Henry. That is the list. Josh Allen. If you include Week 17, which isn't for fantasy, but is real football, the list would go, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Deshawn Watson.

So I'm not saying he's better than Baker, but he was better than Baker last year during the most important part of the season. He's, as Craig mentioned at the beginning of the episode, the rushing floor has become not a skeleton key, but it's really like the missing link in some ways for how do you find value in like quarterbacks in the teens. Josh Allen's rushing last year was unbelievable. Like Lamar Jackson, they'd want him to run less because he got hurt. But whatever, he's going undrafted, basically, and people are forgetting. Like, he was incredible. The bills need him.

I think he's an unbelievable value. Give him a bench spot. The obvious question here, Danny, is that going to be? replicable, is that going to be something that he can continue to do? My thought is it might be because he was getting the vast, vast majority of that rushing production on scrambles, which I don't necessarily know if that's going to change that much. I think he's, you know, he's still going to be that very, very questionable passer. Like we still don't even know if he's going to be like a long-term starter, to be honest.

He was that bad as a passer last year. But, I mean, to that point, like when he drops, back and he doesn't, you know, see what he wants to see. Like, he has the athleticism take off and run. And, you know, is he automatically going to stop doing that next year? I don't think so. And I think, you know, it's still going to be a big part of kind of their offense. And they did the, you know, the Seahawks did that with Russell Wilson early in his career.

They made scrambling like a big part of their offense. They had this thing called the scramble drill where when he breaks the pocket, like everyone has a specific job to do. And so it makes the scramble much less, you know, like, random or whatever. But I think they're going to try to build that his ability as a scramble kind of into their offense. And so it might not completely go away. I think

there is the fear and there is that fear that, you know, that's not repeatable. But I don't know. I still think he's still going to be that guy. He's still going to be Josh Allen. So. Blake Bortles has been a serviceable fantasy quarterback. Don't let your real life biases get in the way of value

baby. Yeah. He's not going to, he's not in any risk of getting benched. I wouldn't think. Well, who knows? You never know if Josh Allen. Yeah. All right, DK. Next up, the Ocho Cinco Award.

The once good guy who's still being treated like he's good, but he's really not. Could be age or scheme related. Probably age related. Change teams, whatever, and they're about to fall off the map. Okay. So this one, I'm just going to phrase it. I'm going to phrase it exactly how I want to phrase it. I love it already.

I'm going with Drew Breeze of the Saints. and I'm only, I'm fading him only in the sense that I don't love what he does. He's done so poorly in the late part of the season, the last three seasons, that I'm just like staying away from him, generally speaking. He's a good, he's like a really good fantasy regular season quarterback. I'm not going to say that he's like going to have a terrible season, but what he does at the end of the year. December.

Makes me worried. So, oh, also, the Saints offense seems to just be very much, like going towards more run heavy, more balance, fewer passes, blah, blah, blah. So that too. But during the last year's fantasy playoffs, if it was like weeks 13 through 16, say, Breeze was the quarterback 24. He only averaged 11 points per game. So if you kind of relied on him throughout the whole season and then was hoping that,

you know, that he was going to be this big rock that you could rely on during the playoffs. You were very disappointed and I remember being that way. So in 2017, he was QB 14 in that stretch. Only 15 points per game. 2016, he was QB 18 in that. I stretch. So it's it's to the point where it's becoming a legitimate concern. So, you know, if you want to take him and live on him during the regular season, that's fine, then stream during the playoffs. I get that and that's a viable thing. But like, for me, I'm not paying the tax to get

him during the regular season because just what he does late in season is heartbreaking. So yeah, that's my modified Ocho Singo Award. The ringers Danny Kelly hates Drew Brees. Yeah. My Ocho Sinko Award winner is Guy's going to fall for a cliff. I want to say it, but I'm going to say it. Aaron Rogers. I said it.

Yeah, and this is a thing that, I mean, this is a legitimate discussion in a lot of people having that are Aaron Rogers' best days behind him? Because I think it's a legitimate question to ask. To be clear, I'd be happy to have him in fantasy football. It's just, I don't like him for where he's being drafted.

Yeah. He's being drafted top five. I mean, by ADP, it's just, by ADP, he's going in the, top 40 and that's just too rich for me. Sorry, top 50, but there's so many variables and at the core of it, fantasy football is minimizing risk. It's nothing against Aaron Rogers.

He's still talented. I think a lot of the criticism of him is less about how talented he is, more about the decision making. And his decision making is, I mean, obviously became a rift over what the decisions he wanted to make on the field were against Mike McCarthy. But there's just so many variables with this new coach and whether Rogers's numbers are going to come back to elite level. So he's certainly capable of being it.

But it's so wild to me to pass and you make your fifth or six-round pick into a quarterback who there's just so many question marks. Right. And they didn't do like a ton to add weapons to the offense. It's, you know, they were kind of rolling with the guys they had last year. Lefleur is a huge question mark. Lafleur. Did he do anything last year that made you super bullish on this offense? I don't, you know, I just don't know.

Like you said, there's a lot of variables kind of going into the Rogers projection. and I tend to be more positive about it, but I definitely understand why people are kind of like getting away from Rogers at this point. I think he led the NFL by a long margin and throwaways last year. And what you were alluding to is he was changing the plays at the line of scrimmage a lot.

I think that was what caused a risk between he and Mike McCarthy. So yeah, I mean, it's just kind of interesting. If he can play, if he can be on the same page as the floor plans inside that offense and the offense is anything what we think it could be in terms of sort of this hybrid between Sean McBey and Kyle Shanahan, which is

like why he got hired to be their to their head coach or whatever, then that, like, he has a lot of potential. But, I mean, it's just like we've seen a lot of offenses just never really take off. And that could be this offense here. All right. Next up, this one, this one's a big one, D.K.

The Patrick Mahomes Award, league winners, guys who are going outside the top 100 that could win you your league. Now, I'm just going to say off the top. There is no Patrick Mahomes this year. Like, you're probably not going to find someone outside the top 100 that's throwing 50 touchdowns. But finding a quarterback

outside the top 100 that could give you a top three season is an incredible thing. So, D.K., yeah. Who's your Pat Mahomes league winner this year? I mean, I cheated a little bit because Newton right now is ADP is 89. So just a little bit inside. Guidelines. But yeah, I mean, it's not rules. Guidelines. A lot of people have kind of recency bias when it comes with Newton. Obviously, last year, his shoulder was affecting him a lot. Like, he couldn't throw more than 30 yards. just his throwing motion looked like garbage. You know, I think they actually paired back his running a little bit because they didn't want him to, you know, exacerbate that injury.

Now he's, you know, he underwent surgery. His throwing motion looks really clean. I saw a video of him throwing it from training camp in it. He looks, it's just like completely different. It looks so much better. It looks so much more natural. I think there's a real chance his passing could explode a little bit this year. He's getting Greg Olson back into the fold.

DJ Moore. is and Curtis Samuel are both huge breakout kind of like candidates this season in terms of, you know, their efficiency last season, the route running, all that. I think both of those guys have huge breakout potential. And then Ian Thomas, they're tight end. If Greg Olson does get hurt, like he showed a lot late in the season. So I think their offensive weapons, obviously add in McAfrey gives Newton this really solid kind of nucleus of offensive playmakers that he may have never really had in his whole career. Add in the fact that he may be running, a little bit more than last year. Obviously, he paired down his running, but same deal. His floor as a runner, his ability as a runner gives him a much higher floor. He is currently the QB10 in PPR,

and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he ended up inside the top five at the position this season. I disagree with this one a lot. Hater. Yeah, I am a hater. Yeah, well, he can write that and it's a weird font he does

on his Instagram stories. You can call him a hater. But I think he's just not that kind of player anymore. He can run, but he's not. I mean, Peter King had his column this morning. And he basically, I mean, the title of it was Cam Newton puts away the cape. And he said in that column, he said, quote, as a quarterback, this is Cam Newton. As a quarterback in this league, you're unanimously the leader, right?

We needed that game. I felt as if I wanted to give my team everything that I had, honestly, being hurt, being injured, looking back at it, it probably wasn't the smartest efficient thing. And he's just, that was just him playing hurt. They've said, they're going to stop, they're going to slow down his running like almost every season he's been in the NFL. I'll believe it when I see it. I'll believe it when I see it. I'll put it that way. I'm not convinced. But to each their own. I, for my, my league winner guy, I have James Winston. He's going right now. He's QB16. It's going 115th overall. Ben Gretch at CBS wrote a great article on finding the next Mahomes. He, he developed, there's a key number you can look at, which is the ADP, the average draft position disparity between a team's skill position and the quarterbacks with the idea. being...

It's very interesting, yeah. Yeah, if you are having a bunch of skill players who are very high, but a quarterback very low, well, then one of those is right. Either the quarterback is undervalued or the skill players are overvalued because they're part of the same offense. So a couple people we found in this is... ADP is very high on the Rams. People are drafting the Rams skill players, but down on Goff.

The other one he looked at was James Winston. Mike Evans is the wide receiver 8. Chris Godwin is right now going around wide receiver 20. Oja Howard is going tight end four. But James is the quarterback 16. that doesn't really make sense. I mean, we can look at James. I mean, I think he's a great deep ball passer,

and he really fits well with what Bruce Ariens is doing, and they both have had throughout their careers, like Ariens and Winston have been part of offenses that are really deep, average depth of target, and that's been talked about a lot, but if you believe in Evans, Godwin, and Howard, you kind of have to believe in James, and I just think it's just a really great potential lead the league in attempts

and maybe even passing yards. Yeah, I mean, I get that for sure. And now we can go into the Josh Allen Award, which sadly isn't for Josh Allen this year, but the Out of Nowhere Stud, which Josh Allen already came from somewhere. So the out of nowhere stud, the guy no one's talking about that could be,

in terms of fantasy, that could be a major fantasy player. So a guy you can grab in the last round of your draft maybe or toward the end that no one's thinking of as a fantasy contributor. I mean, with quarterbacks, this category is a little bit tough because quarterbacks are so high profile. But I think right now,

Dak Prescott is really undervalued. as a potential starter for your fantasy team. Right now he's the QB 15 and number 13, 113 overall. So he's going outside the top 100. And last season, he finished as the QB 10. And Hafeas, you skit, you dotted out here. He was number four down the stretch. What was that?

What does that mean? So, I mean, just like Josh Allen, I don't think anyone thinks of, oh yeah, Josh Allen, the number one quarterback in fantasy for the last seven weeks of the season. Yeah, obviously. So, Dak Prescott from like, week 12 to week 16, he was fourth. It was Mahomes, Josh Allen, Deshawn Watson, and Dak Prescott.

And a lot of that has to do with Cooper coming over, right? And they kind of like figured out their offense. I don't know anything about Amari Cooper. I don't want to hear that name. I don't like, no, but really, it's basically if you buy that the Cowboys offense was reinvigorated by Amory Cooper, you should probably be buying Dak Prescott. It doesn't even have to be quite as good for him to be an incredible value. He doesn't have to be the fourth quarterback this year.

He can be the eighth, which is, I think, officially the Tony Roma Memorial spot, the eighth quarterback in fantasy. And that's still an amazing thing for where he's going right now. And again, like we've talked about it before, his rushing ability, his toughness in and around the goal line. They use him on read options a lot. I think really gives him a higher floor too.

So that's the interesting thing, and that's the thing. He only ran for 44 yards in that stretch. That's six-game stretch. He ran for 44 yards. He didn't run. They were passing. but they've also talked about getting more involved around the goal line and he could be rushing for more touchdowns

that's speculative but that's the wild thing with him he has the rushing floor but when he was an elite passer he was getting it done without running full-time Craig yes I would be remiss to not at least mention Jimmy Garoppolo Jimmy GQ Jimmy GQ is his back and healthy with the Niners under Shanahan

his current ADP is 133 the quarterback 21 he's going one before Josh Allen the man commanded the name of this award. But this is, this is really just, um, putting my eggs in the Shanahan basket. And the last time that Shanahan's really had a healthy, talented roster was the 2016 Falcons. And that year, we all know what happened. They were a record setting team. They had in a thousand yard rusher and a thousand yard receiver and a quarterback that almost

did for 5,000 yards. And they nearly won the Super Bowl. Um, I just think everybody in this tier, we kind of know what their ceiling is except Jimmy Garoppolo. And he's the only one this late in the ADP list where if somebody said, oh, he threw for 4,600 yards in 2019. I don't think anybody would be like, no way. That's impossible. Forty-800 yards. No way that's impossible. Also, he's really handsome. No, I mean, look, I mean, to your, I mean, Mays just said on this podcast that, I mean, Gropo is probably the best bet in the league to just lead the league and receive a court of passing yards right now. And if you can get that at QB21 and spend a dollar on him in auction or whatever it takes, $3. I mean. Expert analysis. That's a good bet. It's a good value.

I remember last year feeling so good when I got Garoppolo like late around in a couple drafts and I'm just like, well, obviously, got hurt, but I'm all, I'm totally with you on this, I think. Thanks, Dad. D.K. Fother, D.K. God. Speaking of fathers, Philip Rivers. Nice. I'm going to pretend I did that on purpose. The most virile quarterback in the NFL by far.

Sure. Oh, God. Right now he is the, it feels like, Okay, so every year people get hyped about the chargers, not necessarily Rivers, but, well, sometimes Rivers, but the Chargers are always hyped. I'm just going to keep going. I think the Rivers, I think, has a chance to really outplay as ADP right now. He's a QB17, ADP 126, and PPR. Last year he finished as a QB11, so he was a fringe QB1.

And that was without Hunter Henry. I don't know if Henry is going to have a big enough impact to push him into like QB7 or 8 or whatever, but I think he's, think there's a solid chance he's going to have a really, really good year. He's definitely, I feel in my mind going to outplay his ADP. So Rivers is a guy that I think it's just really cheap right now that could kind of pay off down the line. My favorite stat from last football season was that when the Chargers played the Ravens in the playoffs, Philip Rivers had more children than Lamar Jackson had career starts in the NFL. The only time that could have ever happened. It's incredible. All right. My post-type sleeper, again, Carson Wentz, it's really simple. If he's

stays healthy. He might be the MVP of the league. Kevin and Mays just talked about how great that Eagles team is. And there's so much quarterback depth as we've explained on this episode that if it gets hurt, whatever, like you get a backup quarterback. Stream someone. You can stream, it's fine. And if he's playing,

he was the number two quarterback per game in 2017. So good stuff. The Rex Burkhead Award, which I think this season we're going to have to, this is going to be the Tyler Eifford Award. I think we're making a decision right now. It's the Tyler Ifer award, which is time to give up the dream.

We'll give up. Rashad Penny, Mori Cooper, but really Tyler Eifer. Give up the dream. This is the guy you've drafted every time for the last six years. Formerly the C.J. Spiller Award. The friend zone. It's just the point. You can't quit.

Yeah. I'm giving up on Annie Dalton. Andy Dalton has been sort of like a favorite sleeper of mine for the last few years because I think the Bengals, people just underrate the Bengals all the time. I'm not so sure that's going to happen this year. the offensive line potentially could be a mess and now AJ Green

he had a ligament injury that's going to keep him out six to eight weeks could be longer it's a high ankle sprain so yeah I don't know I just that that that Bengals offense makes me nervous

obviously they got a new offense coordinator they're going to pick up the pace and all that but I'm just I'm kind of done with Andy Dalton at this point I'm so out on the Bengals it's unbelievable I don't know I don't even know where in would be at this point.

A guy I'm quitting is Marcus Marioota. I don't know if there's a more you know there's some fantasy players that you picked up once and they were really good for you and then you love them forever and it's completely unwarranted.

That is Marioita for me. At this point he's at four this is going to be his fifth year and his fourth offensive coordinator. The new one's never called plays was their tight ends coach. By the way, grandson of the founder of FedEx.

Mario. Thank you for that. Arthur Smith, I believe. Yeah. Mario, I mean, nerve injury to his elbow that's concerning. Lingered into the offseason, his backup might be better than him. I don't know if there's a more like you versus the guy you're not supposed to be worried about than Marcus Mario would be perfect.

Ryan Tanahill would be perfect for this. He's just, I just, there's so much wrong here and I'm, I'm, goodbye, Marcus. Farewell. I disagree only slightly. with this. I think Mariotta has a chance to bounce back, but I definitely give up the dream, man. I definitely understand this, yeah. I will leave him on waivers. Let's, all right, now we're going to run through our tiers. We're going to be doing this for every position episode, but draft tiers are a really great way to build your rankings, and instead

of just the, because obviously so much of drafting is about positional scarcity. And really at the core of what tiers are is, it gives you a place in the moment when you're, oh shit, I have 30 seconds left. I don't know what to do because the two guys I wanted or just got picked. It helps you give a guideline of here's who's left within each tier. It helps you look forward to like if there's a cliff coming up. Exactly. It lets you set price ranges in auction. Exactly. It's cliff watching.

And so you can say, oh, I have one running back left I want, but there's four receivers. I'm going to go running back and hope that one of those receivers falls. So let's run through our quarterback tiers. Tier one, just Patty Mahomes. He's his own tier. It's a one tier man. One man tier? Who knows?

Tier two. We've got Deshawn Watson on the Texans, Andrew Luck and the Colts, Matt Ryan and the Falcons, and Aaron Rogers and the backers. Yeah. I mean, I think some people

would put Watson in my homes. I don't think that's deserved by Deshawn, no offense. Tier three, you've got Baker Mayfield on the Browns, Drew Bree's on the Senate. You guys know what teams

these people are. Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Penn Rothesberger, Philip Rivers, and James Winston. And Cam Newton. You forgot Newton.

Oh, Oh, no. And Cam Newton. By my definition, those are the quarterbacks that we've listed so far are, in my mind, I'm comfortable with them as my starting quarterback. Don't need a stream. Don't even maybe don't even need a backup. Like, I'm comfortable with those dudes starting for me.

Although I personally move rivers, but consensus. Tier four, which is high upside backups. Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford. That's high upside backup, Tom Brady. The highest upside of all time, really from backup. He's in the same group as Josh Allen. Yeah. Tom Brady's the highest upside backup ever

All right but tier four is Tom Brady Matthew Stafford Jimmy Garoppolo Kirk Cousins Dak Prescott Mitchell Trubisky Oh I love Trubiscuits Kyler Murray

Lamar Jackson Josh Allen And then tier 5 Which is for me waivers galore Marcus Mariotis Sam Darnold Nick Foles

Derek Carr Joe Flack or Elon Manning Daniel Jones I think Don't you dare say that name in this house Who do you think you are Oh man

I wanted to put Daniel Jones for the league winner one so hard. You did, I deleted it. I crossed it off the dock. Just because of his rushing ability. He's going to do the Josh Allen, like literally the Josh Allen. I swear. Don't give you.

Just wait for it. Josh Allen's actually like a low-key good athlete. Daniel Jones is just. No, he's a good athlete. He's a good runner. Just wait. Just wait. I wouldn't say he's a great passer, but exactly like Josh Allen, he's a good, good runner.

If I hear one more thing about Daniel Jones's family, like, lays the cross. I'm going to lose my mind. D.K., I think that's all the time we got. Thank you to everyone for listening. No, Daniel Jones. Long live Josh Allen. Long live Lamar Jackson. Thank you to

everyone and we'll be back with running backs. Peace.