The Ringer NFL Show - Which Fantasy Receivers Do You Want in 2019? l The Dantasy Football Podcast

Episode Date: August 8, 2019

Danny Kelly, Danny Heifetz, and Craig Horlbeck debate whether PPR is for cowards (spoiler: yes) and then discuss who could be a league winner in 2019, whose bandwagon is too full, and a conspiracy theory on Antonio Brown and his freezer-burned feet. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Direct TV. Good news, NFL fans. Direct TV has expanded the service. If you're a student actively enrolled in a college or university, you can now get NFL Sunday ticket without a satellite. Plus, there's an exclusive student discount. To see if you are eligible, go online to nfl sundayticket.tv and stream every NFL Sunday ticket game this season to follow your favorite team no matter where you live.

Use promo code ringer at checkout to save 15%. Packages are also available for football fans living in areas where DirecTV service is not available. We've all made some bad choices in life. I know I have. But this is not about me. It's about you. Don't make where you play fantasy football a bad life decision.

Play Yahoo! Fantasy football. Yahoo offers up free expert advice, has the best player experience, and they'll never delete your league history like other apps. Yahoo also has all kinds of fantasy games, Like the new best ball. Just draft and you're done. No trades, no waivers, no drama all season.

Yahoo is the number one rated app by the FSGA. Make better choices. Choose Yahoo Fantasy Football. Welcome to Antonio Brown's Foot Clinic and welcome to the fantasy football podcast. Brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. I'm Danny Haifitz and I'm joined by the fantasy analyst we need, the analyst we deserve. My co-host, my co-danny, the Dark Knight,

Danny Kelly. D.K. What is on your mind? Well, now I'm just thinking about Antonio Brown's feet, which is the weirdest story of the year. But what are you thinking about? What are you thinking about about Tony Brown's feet? Yeah, that's just weird. If you googled

it, you know, and don't Google it if you haven't. Flabbergasted. Yeah, well, that's the word. We are continuing our positional breakdown. We have an entire episode devoted to quarterbacks. We have an entire episode devoted to running backs, and now we have an entire episode to the top 50 players and drafts this year. You can

check out those episodes in the Ringer NFL show feed. You can also check out the top 150 rankings on the ringer.com. Today we have an entire episode devoted to wide receivers. You need to know in fantasy in 2019. But first, we're going to just yell at each other for a little bit.

PPR, divisive. I think it's participation trophies. And in the last few years, ESPN switched standard from no PPR scoring. Now their default is PPR. Yahoo's default now is half PPR. And so, and the last

PPR. So point per reception has gone from a weird kind of fringe grungy thing to now the dominant form of fantasy football. And we kind of take it for granted, but we wanted to just talk about it off the top of like, why? And like, is it a good thing? And it's kind of accepted. I'm now have come through all the way the other side. I started thinking it was really weird. And then I've been doing it for, I don't know, five or six years at this point. Now I'm back through the other side. It's a participation trophy. And here's why. My fundamental issue is if it's third and two, and you have the teams running back. If that person runs for three yards and gets the first down,

that is not as valuable as them catching a screen and losing a yard. Even at half PPR. You'd rather them catch the ball and lose yardage than get the first down. It's insane to me you can lose yardage and get points. I just couldn't care less about that. Hell yeah, D.K. It's like... I literally could not care less about that point.

I like half because it's in the middle. middle and nobody can bitch. Half is just, you're literally no man's land. If this was World War I, you'd just be between two trenches. Like, guys, guys. Get off the fence, man. Come on. Yeah, come on.

Put the fucking side. You get a little bit of points for catching the football because catching the football's hard. You don't get one full point because it's not that hard. Fuck that. I respect D.K., because at least he commits. It's like half is like... The entire company of Yahoo agrees with me, so... Look, man.

Look, I just think... It's really, really boring. And I just don't like it when I'm in a league where it's like you're... one of your main starters gets like seven points. I just like points. Give me as many points. I don't even care. Like, I like the, I like the accelerators, like 100 yard accelerators. I know people hate those. I like those. Bring them on. Any way that you can add points, any way that you can add another layer of how you kind of like find guys that are going to score points. To me, that is more fun and interesting. The problem with your generation, your dopamine rushes from your push notifications and your

Instagram likes and you need all these points and it's, it has no correlation to reality. Don't you think Deshaun, don't you think Deshaun Jackson having one catch for 70 yards and Jarvis Landry having 10 for 70s? You'd be different? No! I do. Look, I understand that point, but I don't think there's nine more points of value. How about five? The goal, the point of football is to move the chains and score touchdowns.

And like, take baseball. The points to get on base, move people on base and score runs. You don't give people points for making contact. That's what a catch is. A catch in and of itself is meaningless. There's no difference between a catch and a carry, especially they at no yards. It doesn't feel like we're going to find common ground on this. Well, Bill agrees with me, so I win.

So let's just go into the freaking awards because you guys suck. Yeah, let's get into it. All right. Everybody has a guy at each position heading in a draft. D.K., who's your guy right now at wide receiver this year? Speaking of Bill, I like Julian Edelman of the Patriots. I mean, I just think right now he is very undervalued based on his ADP and where he is. is going in drafts.

He's currently the wide receiver 15 in PPR last year from week five on. He was wide receiver 12 in PBR. Obviously, people kind of forget that he was suspended for the first four years. So that kind of lowered his bottom line. Games, not years. Just to clarify. Sorry, yeah. Clays suspension.

Yeah, that would be a serious suspension. But, I mean, going forward, there's even, there's more targets to go, you know, go towards him this year with obviously Gronkowski retired. and they just don't really have anyone in that offense and that passing offense. Nikol Harry's reviews and training camp have been sort of lukewarm at best, I'd say. And so, I mean, he's going to just get a million targets. And PBR particularly, I think he's very undervalued. He's a guy that I'm looking for, you know, pretty much every draft because I think he's going

to just be a really strong value this year. Yeah, Matthew Berry's 100 Facts column, which we've referenced a few times in his great read. He had one blew me away, which was in Edelman's past 16 regular season games without Rob Grancowski, he's 180 targets, which blew my mind. Edelman, yeah, you mentioned the suspension that obviously he was the Super Bowl MVP. He's at billboards all over Los Angeles. You cannot go anywhere in Los Angeles on the west side without seeing Julian Edelman. So are you worried that now that he's famous and cachet and he's 33 and coming off like the best stretch of his life, he's going to lose his edge? No, no, I don't think so

I mean, yeah, he's, I mean, the trust like factor between him and Tom Brady, the chemistry they have there in terms of like, the Patriots offense is all about those like route adjustments and, you know, changing up the routes at the line of scrimmage, all that. I think it's going to be hard for some of these newcomers to learn the offense really, really well. I think that gives out a little bit a big edge. I just think there, yeah, again, like, I mean, like Barry said, he's going to get a ton of targets.

I think that's just going to pay off really, really well in PPR. So again, he's just a guy I'm really going for. More like Julian Edgelman, because he's got an edge. My guy this year is Cooper Cup of the Los Angeles Rams. I love security blanket guys. You guys know my thoughts about moving into the slot. I love slot guys. Anytime anyone's in the slot, I'm in.

I love Edelman. I love Doug Balls and out. He touched that one. Any time. There's just, I know this makes no sense, but from a fantasy perspective, there's the guy on the couch. There's something visually comforting about seeing the rest of, receiver on your fancy team being closer to the quarterback. You're like, oh, his, like, it's literally easier to throw it to him than the guy on the far end of the field. I used to

remember watching like A.J. Green, you couldn't even see him on the camera. And you're like, he's not going to get the ball. It's because SkyCam is the truth, but that's neither here nor there. PFF did a study on this. I don't have it in front of me, but what they found is that targets to slot receivers have a higher EPA than any other place on the field. So there you go. There you go. There you go. Expected points added for the people who don't have PFF studies in front of them. D.K thinks he's a professional.

Doesn't even have the PFS studies in front of him. What are you doing, do you? He just has it off the top of his said. I can't pull it up that fast. I didn't know he's going to save it. Come on, man. Cup's been a wide receiver two or better in 47% of his games, which is better than Jarvis Langer, Brandon Cooks,

Keenan Allen, T.Y. Hilton. In his seven full games he played last year before he was hurt, he had great numbers. He was on pace for 80 catches, 1100 yards and 12 touchdowns, which would have made him the wide receiver 12 last year. He gets a pretty good target share percentage, considering he's on a team with,

Robert Woods and Brandon Cooks. He has a great catch rate. He got really sturdy hands. He's had at least five catches or 70 yards in every game last year. And even if you take his last 16 games that were when he was healthy, which includes his rookie year,

which a lot of rookie wide receivers actually aren't very good. He was basically the same thing. He was a wide receiver 13. I just think he's a safe. He's the... Eastern Washington's finest. Here's my thing.

This is the... This is a guy coming off... I mean, he's on a great timeline with his ACL recovery. I mean, nine months. So it's, I mean, that's the worry though, right? The quicker side, and he's on an offense that is one of the least predictable in terms of who's going to be getting the ball on a weekly basis. Now, he was there for the peak of the Rams offense.

That's kind of chicken at the egg. You can say its cup was the reason they were so great was because they were full strength. I'd argue that it was just the first five weeks of a really great McVeigh offense, and then I don't think they can match that stretch. So you're not worried at all about having a guy that just might not be the level last year. And like, who knows how it would have been for the final 12 games? I just don't love Cup and I don't love the Rance receivers this year. It's for where they're going. I think he's the safest out of the three of them.

Oh, wow. Over Brandon Cooks? Yeah. You draft Cup before Cooks? Yeah. Wow. D.K., what do you think of that? I'm thinking about that.

I mean, I don't like hate that thought. I don't personally do that, but I don't like hate that thought is an interesting one because I do think like back to the EPA thing. Like, he is getting so many looks, especially in PPR, like he might have the most value. Just to clarify EPA for his first. second because it's an important one. Expected points at it, yeah. Yeah, that's the, it's not quite war for football, but it's the closest there is, right?

Yeah. Yeah, it's a stat that essentially tracks every play of every game ever and like assigns a value for what every play does. I don't actually know exactly the definition of EPA, but it's a good stat to kind of measure how important every play is. And the stat says Sean McVeigh, through the Cooper Cup, you goon. There's also something to be said about. trust. They talk about Tom Brady, you know, he needs trust from his wide receivers, and that's why

him and Edelman are so good. Cooper Cup, Jared Goff, roommates in training camp. You know what? Another fact about Jared Goff, his teammates will say he sucks at Madden. It's a really bad quality to quarterback, in my humble opinion. Who cares? That means he's not playing video games. He's practicing being quarterback. This white can't see receivers getting open. My guy this year is Marquez Valdez Scantling, who I will refer as MVS for the rest of this podcast. This is an interesting one. So this is your guy. This is my guy. This is like the guy that that you're drafting him in every draft and you're just like looking for him on it in every draft. Well, so here's the thing. I want the Packers second receiver and I love Geronimo Allison so much.

And I loved him last year. But I think that Allison's fallen behind and I think that at the end of the season, MVS among the receivers will be second in targets and receptions of the Packers. Maybe Jimmy Graham can pass him. I think MVS ends up second. It's pretty simple. I mean, he's a fifth rounder, fifth rounder at of NC State last year, 5881 yards. and 38 catches. Mostly he had a great October. He had 317 yards and two touchdowns across a few games. He basically stepped up because Geronimo Allison got hurt.

And I need to highlight Geronimo's injury for a moment. He had a concussion in week four and then he added a hamstring injury, returned to practice and had a what was described as a core muscle injury. But here's Geronimo Alison

describing it, quote, I tell people that it honestly felt like my testicles twisted. Allison said, pausing for a moment to let that sink in. Quote, that was the feeling that I felt. The trainers came over to me and checked on me,

and those were the words out of my mouth. I feel like my testicles twisted. The article goes on. What really happened, Allison found out later, was that he, quote, basically tore my adductor muscles from my pelvis. Oh, my God. I was just reading the doc.

I say all that. One, because I just kind of wanted to say it. But two, because Dan Graziano reported this week that Allison looked a little behind at training cramp from the recovery. This is tough because I love Geronimo Allison and in my heart of hearts I want to believe that deep down, you know, he's going to be good.

But deep down, I don't know if he's so good. And Rogers really, from what we can tell, trust three receivers. Devante Adams is on another level. And the only receivers that establish any trust or rapport with him last year was Allison and then MVS after him. And there is just a mismash under him of young receivers who have, do not get it

and are not on the same page with Rogers. all these they didn't really add anyone this year Randall Cobb left Allison's going to be in the slot MVS and Devante in the outside I'm not confident in Toronto being healthy and I think the only player

other than Devante who's on the same page as Rogers is really going to be MVS and Graham I think MVS really ends up great and he's not being drafted that high so I think yeah he has amazing potential

as like a huge value it's going to be funny when because I'm really high in Allison too like spending the whole preseason talking about Alice and and MvS, like Jake Coomero is the number two. Dude, Coomero, no, my point is Valdus Scantling, and I feel like when New York comes out, VALD, MVS.

He's like a 12th round pick, and this guy could become the second target for Rogers. No, I know. I'm with you, I'm with you. I think it's going to be a good value. You're not with me. You said it was a curious pick at the top. I wanted you to convince me, and you did.

Wow. Well, thanks, man. Well, sticking with Green Bay, now bet your life guy, if you had a bet your life on one guy in the position, having an amazing, awesome year. Who is it? Yeah, I mean...

I kind of spoiled it. Yeah, this goes to almost everything that you just said, which is the Packers have a very unclear pass catcher core behind Devante Adams. I think Devante Adams is going to have, like Julian Edomint, a million targets this year. He actually finished one short of the lead in the targets last year with 169. He's just automatic. He's Rogers' go-to guy. He scored 35 touchdowns last three season, which,

I think is kind of quietly second only to Antonio Brown. He's super, super consistent. He scored double digit points in all but one game and standard, and he was better than 16 points in PPR leagues in every game. So, I mean, he's just, week in, week out, he's a threat. He's been durable. He's been a touchdown score. He's just really, really good.

I think that guy, I mean, there's a lot of really good choices in this category, because there's an amazing amount of, like, elite receivers in the NFL right now. But yeah, I think Adams, to me, is the guy who would just be like, I bet on him for consistency. Yeah, he knows where his bread is buttered and does what Roger says. Craig, what's your amazing Devante's stat again? If you took his worst game last year and extrapolated it over a 16 game span,

he would be the wide receiver 12. That's still be a wide receiver one. Unbelievable. Yeah. Craig, who is your guy this year? You know, like they say, I'm sorry, bet your life guy. You're right. If I had to bet my life, they say, like Matthew Berry says,

you can lose your draft in the first round, you can't win it. So I want consistency, and that's why Julio Jones. There's a million stats to describe why Julio Jones has been so amazing every year. But simple one, here is PPR finishes in the last five years. Fourth, seventh, sixth, second, sixth. And in standard, fifth, sixth, sixth, second, eighth. And last year... People are so mad about the touchdown things, too.

So he does all that while scoring no touchdowns. Can you imagine if he had 13 touchdowns when you? Yeah, I... Yeah. I actually, I wrote about... It's going to happen. I have a piece on the side of... that today and if I mean the too long don't read version is what Craig said but like imagine if he

actually starts scoring touchdowns and also his basically his price does not reflect that he led the league in touchdowns in the second half everyone just remembers the first half the first seven games he didn't have one and he was like second in the league receiving and then had no touchdowns but the second half he led the goddamn league and if he goes anywhere near that pace it's as Craig just said he's top six or seven every year just with his receiving floor and if he actually scores touchdowns I mean, he just, he's a weird person was like, not weird person. I mean, it's a weird situation where high floor and a really high ceiling at the top 12. Like, that just doesn't happen.

So love Julio. Appreciate, he's like, Drake, you know, it's just been dominant for so long. No one appreciates them anymore. No, nothing, okay. Not yet. And he has more number one hits than the Beatles, I think. God, you know what, that's my fault. I brought this upon us.

Speaking of Drake, bandwagon pick. These are people we like, maybe even like a lot, but we're worried that there's so many people in the bandwagon that they're no longer good draft values. So, D.K., who's a bandwagon guy for you? It's getting too full. So my guy's Kenny Goladee of the Lions. And again, to reiterate exactly what you just said,

yeah, Baby Tron, which is my nickname for my infant named Calvin. So anyways. Kenny Golade. Kenny Golade, really good player, really awesome player. I'm a little bit worried about it. that offense though. He had a really abysmal catch rate last year, just 58.8%, even though he finished ninth among all players in air yards.

So he and Matt Stafford left plenty on the bone last year. That is something that I'm kind of interested in, but they're going to be such a low, I feel like they're going to be such a low volume offense. They're not going to pass ball a lot. They're going to want to run a lot. You know, Darrell Bevel is kind of the wild card and all this, and it really just kind of depends on what they do offensively. you know, are they going to be, are they going to kind of like surprise us and be a past heavy team, maybe?

But right now, I'm not super confident. That's going to be the case. Marvin Jones is going to be back for the full year. You know, they're just, they got Danny Amand Dolan in town. There's a couple other guys like T.J. Hawkinson that could start to eat into targets there. So that to me is like the worry. I think there's the one thing I will say that I'm excited to see. what happens in this offense is if they start doing play action more because last year,

Stafford utilized play action on just 18.9% of his passes, which was 33rd out of 37 qualifiers. This year, if he goes up to, like, say he's like a top 10 play action passer, like his numbers could skyrocket. So that to me is sort of like the big what if. And I don't have 100% confidence going to happen. I think Ghaladay is kind of just priced out of my, like, my comfort zone. So I haven't really been taking him a ton. I mean, he's a great dynasty guy, but for this season, I'm not so sure.

He's going as the wide receiver 17 right now. 42nd overall-ish. Would you rather him or one of the Rams trio? I mean, in PBR, yeah, I'd probably prefer Cup. I mean, really, maybe any of those. Like, you're picking the offense, too, right? Like, the Rams' offense is a super explosive, scored more points than any other team other than the Chiefs, maybe.

I actually don't have in front of me, but they score a ton of points. So yeah, I don't know. To me, it's more less just confidence in the Lions' offense in general than Kenny Goliday. So the next guy is actually kind of the same person, the same idea of like, are we actually just confident in this offense is the larger question? But Craig, your bandwagon pick is the bandwagon pick. It's Chris Godwin. I feel like that man has garnered so much momentum.

He's going as a wider receiver 21 in PPR leagues, which is right after Robert Woods and Cooper Cup. At the end of the day, this is still the James Winston offense, and it could all crater miserably. Yeah. Also, there's Mike Evans on the team. There's OJ. Howard on the team. You know, we don't know how this target distribution is going to go. But I found this interesting stat.

Looking at the past Bruce Ariens' offenses, no one is... The second wide receiver on his offenses on the Cardinals have never done anything. In 2017, Fitz had 109 catches, the next most 33. In 2016, Fits out 107. The next best 80, and it was David Johnson. John Brown 39. In 2015, Fitts had 109.

The next best, John Brown 65. In the last year, 2014, Fitzhead 63, John Brown 48. So there's not a huge history of the wide receiver 2 and an Arian's offense blowing up. I'm just going to wait a little longer on Godwin. I think Chris Godwin is like a cult. In the strange corner of like the fantasy... He's been hyped up every year.

Weird world of like fantasy analytic Twitter intelligence. of which we dabble. He is the most hyped player I think I've ever seen. His last name sounds like God's one. Yeah, God is one, right? If only. It's like, or maybe he has. Well, that's beyond the scope of what we're doing here.

But really, I have never seen a single player as hyped for the last two years as Chris Godwin by the consensus of like smart fantasy people. And like I get why. Like he was very productive in college. He was like a standout during the Rose Bowl of like Penn State versus USC. And I mean, it's seven. I mean, Mays wrote about him on the site today as one of the most fun players to own.

He had seven touchdowns, 842 yards last year, even they had 22 fewer snaps than Mike Evans. He was amazing in the Red Zone. One of the best Reds Zone was a way. Oh, yeah. He's up there with like DeAndre and Antonio Brown in terms of Redsend targets.

It's like the best four receivers in football and Chris Godwin. Mays also pointed out, Arian said he believes Godwin could be a hundred catch guy. But I'm seriously. This is the most hype person I think I've ever seen just by consensus of people

We're like, this is one of my five most hype guys this year. It's like he's on every list. So is the value getting squeezed out or is this real DK? Yeah, that is the question. I really, I don't know what to tell you because I agree like he is probably, I mean, it's going to take a lot for him to match the hype. Can he do it? I think it's possible for sure.

But the early rounds are all about mitigating opportunity cost. And you're passing up some really good players in this run. range right now as ADP is 50. So yeah, it's just up to the individual drafter. The other thing that we're kind of not, like everyone talks about it's the Bruce Ariens offense, which I think it will be.

And that's 100% true. But Byron Leffewitch is actually supposed to be calling plays, I believe. So that's another layer of, I guess, variance that we don't really know exactly what that's going to look like. I'm assuming it's going to be the Bruce Ariens offense. But, you know,

there's just a lot of, question marks and the James Winston thing does make me a little bit nervous. But yeah, I don't know. It's one of those things where you just got to kind of like sometimes he's a high upside guy that is a little bit risky, I think. So the next award we have is the Mahomes Christian McCaffrey Award. It's for league winners. It's guys in the second, third, fourth round who could just end up top five at their position

next year. You have Mike Evans. So. Yeah. Are you worried enough about James that you don't like, you don't like Chris Godwin, but you're not worried about Mike Evans? Well, I like, to be clear, I like Chris Godwin. I'm not quite as worried as you guys are about it. But I think Evans is the clear one in this.

And to what Craig was saying, like the one in those Arians offenses have always, like produced. They're always like the vertical element of that offense is huge. And I just think the other thing is Evans has done it. Like, you know what I mean? Like Godwin has shown flashes and Evans has done it. He's going right now as wide receiver 9, ADP 21. Mike Evans, that is. Mike Evans, yeah.

He's got incredible ceiling. I think he was the wide receiver 3 in PPR back in 2016. So, I mean, he's produced on an elite level. And for comparison, Chris Godwin's going roughly 50th overall. He's like the 21st receiver going. He's actually right around Cooper Cup and Sean Watson in 80s. Evans, just a couple of numbers. I was just like looking through Twitter today.

He stacked 800-yard games last year, which was the third most. That was Field Yates posted that. That was third tied with Juju Smith-Schuster, only behind Julio and Adam Thielen. He's had the fourth most receiving yards over the last three years. He's a big play machine. Third behind Julio and Hopkins and 15-plus yard receptions last year. So, I mean, again, he's done it. and I think his target numbers are going to go up.

He had 139 targets last year. I think his numbers could get closer to what he had in 2016 when he had 175 targets, 96 catches, 1,300 yards, and 12 touchdowns. So this is the, again, this is the league winner award, the guy that will potentially be in the top five going into next season. I think Evans is, he has elite, elite potential, you know, if everything kind of goes right and got the talent and the system and all that. So he's right now as the guy outside.

side of the top five that I think could rise. I think just the Bucks are really interesting because you have four really different players. And you have James Winston who, everyone who believes in Ariens and left which and what we are projecting with where Mike Evans is going and Chris Godwin's going on O.J. Howard. We've talked about how the disparity between the Bucks skill players and what we expect the receiving volume to be versus James Winston where he's being drafted and what we do not expect his passing volume to be, there's just this weird disconnect where either James is

way more valuable or one or more of the Bucks past, like that. are not going to go. So, Craig, I mean, you're the one who brought up Godwin at first as a guy, too many people in the bandwagon. So do you think Godwin is the one who falls out of the group? Because you don't believe in James. I do believe in James. Sorry, you do.

I'm confusing with the DK. So you think everyone does and James is the sleeper. Yeah, I think, you know, the tide raises all boats. But I'm just much more into Evans and Godwin. I don't know. Also, the Red Zone distribution, like on a team with Mike Evans, O.J. Howard and Chris Godwin, I don't know. I feel like it's tough to bank the touchdown in Red Zone success Godwin had last year and think that's going to repeat.

Yeah, it's super variable. Yeah. Yeah, that's the main point to me. Speaking with Red Zone distribution, so the Steelers last year, Antonio Brown left. He had, I mean, he led the League in receiving touchdowns. I believe he led the League in Red Zone targets as well. And now he's gone. And I think, again, in the weird fantasy analytics corner of Twitter, there's a lot of discussion about the Steelers have lost a bunch of targets.

stuff, but more interestingly, like, the Steelers are going to have to, they have a lot of stuff in the red zone to change. Like, their whole offense changes without Antonio Brown. Like, Craig, I see you have Juju here, a General Holmes guy. We've really, we've talked about him a lot. The last pod, DK, I believe, hit on him a lot. So this is the Patrick Mahomes Christian McCaffrey Award. And he's obviously not the Patrick Mahomes because he's not going in the 112th. But he's much more Christian McCaffrey, where he's like the second round pick that next year, I think, will

be the top three, four pick at the position. Because right now he's going as the wide receiver seven. All I think is that next year he could go with the wide receiver two or three. But yeah, I mean, it's just the lack of competition for targets is rare in any NFL offense. And although I agree with everything you said back on the running back pot about the Steelers are going to be much more balanced offense this year. I think James Conner is a great pick for that reason. But he didn't score many touchdowns last year. I think that's obviously going to turn the other way. and as the wide receiver ate last year with only seven touchdowns, I see kind of no way that he finishes below that.

A little known fact, Craig is a Steelers fan. Yeah, you got to disclose that shit, dude. To hell. I don't talk about Sequan without being like, I'm a Giants fan, but Deakin doesn't mention I roast. For the record, I agree with Craig here. Also, Juju's like the first likable skill position player in a while on Pittsburgh. Juju's like two down to earth.

My next one, all right, yeah, I kind of fudge this one a little bit. I, if you're looking in the second round, I agree. It's Juju or Mike Evans. So I started to look a little bit beyond the reach of what we usually do with the McAfrey Award. And again, it's like the McAfree Mahomes Award. We usually look for a second or third round. It'll be top five.

But I wanted to push myself a little bit mostly because Craig and D.K. took my guys. And I was like, if we had to look at guys more toward the 80 to 20, 80 to 100 overall range, that like could be like a top six or seven guy in it. Like, who would it be? And I was like, if you really think about it, So the Cardinals last year were 29th in Pasadetans. They had 495.

Last year, the Steelers were first at 689. And I was like, it's not nuts to think that with Cliff Kingsbury, the Cardinals could go from 495 to 695 in 2019. That's not crazy. They're going to try. I don't know if this is going to work. I mentioned how I don't love David Johnson's value in part because, yeah, this all looks awesome on paper, but I want to see it.

And then first round pick for David Johnson, and I want a little like security in my first round pick. I don't want to fail. I am totally down to take a massive risk with Christian Kirk at the 81st pick. He's going like the 33rd among wide receivers. I don't want to be on board this Cardinals experiment in the first round. The 80s get me on this because if there's 200 more targets, he's the only one of experience.

So Evan Silvas pointed this out and they just started the established the run. They're going to have two slot receivers. We love slot receivers because it's like those infomercials late at night. Like, oh, do you want to be happy by this? And you can pay in nothing stallments for your dopamine. But it's like Christian Kirk is going to replace Larry Fitz and slot. He would have last year, if not for just Larry Fitz can't play anywhere else. There are four receiver sets.

They'll have two slot receivers. And Kirk's the only like they have two rookies that are going to line up. I think that Kirk could just target his way to doing like 140 targets. It's like, oh, shit. He's going to enter next year. Like Larry Fitz maybe retires and wow, okay, by default. So that's my only thought of like a really. real like moon shot guy.

Yeah. I mean, you're chasing, he's already efficient, I think, and he got a high volume of their total targets, you know, like, or his, his target share was high last year. And then if you just extrapolate, like, like you said, like 200 extra passes. I just think, yeah, it's definitely really interesting. All right. So the Philip Lindsay Award, which is the out of nowhere stud, guy, no one is talking about that could be a major fantasy player.

I'm going James Washington because it's the same principle. Someone people liked last year and then now everyone's like, oh, and Tony Brown left. James Washington's still there. Wasn't like an amazing rookie at 21 years old like Juju's Smith-Schuster was and everyone just forgets the exists. I think he's going to be second on targets in the Steelers this year. I think juju is obviously going to be at the top.

I think, I mean, I'm no longer worried about Dante Moncrief. I was intrigued by him. entering training camp, it does not seem like he's made an impact. I think Deonti Johnson, who was like one of the fifth round, rookie or six round is going to beat him for the job and then Dante and then James Washington's going to be their main number two along with Juju and I think he's going to have an incredible season and he's basically free in drafts he's almost borderline like undrafted and it's wild to me that that's even impossible sorry no he's like 1 20th but still you're really you're really going

with like the definition of the award because he has only drawn I think negative reviews in camp I haven't really heard anything good yeah like he's fallen behind Moncrief and Deontay Johnson based on kind of like camp reports and everything. So this is a major projection in my mind.

Look, if Deonté John, if two weeks from now that's still the case, I like Deontay Johnson even over Dante Moncrief, but I've kind of fallen out of love

with Dante Moncrief. And I think Deontay Johnson or James Washington, but I do think James Washington ends up the job at a camp. But whoever the second

receiver is, but not Dante Moncrief. All right, fair enough. For me, I'm going Albert Wilson, the dolphins. People kind of forget about him because he

missed, I believe, all but seven games. last year with a hip entry. But he was, while he was on the field, he was like one of the most dynamic, exciting players in the NFL. No one noticed because he was on the dolphins, but he was like the best yards after the catch guy in the NFL.

He broke off a couple, I want to say like 60 plus yard touchdowns a couple of times and a couple of games. And so he's coming back. I don't know if he's fully back on the field yet. So there's a little bit of doubt there. but to me he's the kind of guy who could really, really outplay his ADP. Right now, I think he's 80, 80, or sorry, wide receiver 80, ADP of over 200, so he's virtually free.

But last year, he was averaging 13.8 ppr points per game, which would have been good for wide receiver 26 on a per game basis. That's a high-end wide receiver 3 spot, and you can get him for free. He's not going to have, last year he had, let's see here, 13.3 yards after the catch per reception, which is not sustainable, clearly. But over his career, he's been really, really good after the catch. He was second-run qualifiers in Yakper reception in 2017. He was 9th in 2015.

So it's not like it was a total fluke. It's going to go down, sure. But he's also, he's proven it year over year that he's very, very dynamic in the open field. And so with no real clear lead guy in Miami, I think if he's like they're starting, slot receiver if he can get a lot of targets in that offense, we have no idea what's going to look like. But I just think his ability to make plays after the catch is what makes him

potentially of great value, because you can literally get him for free now. Dude, Albert Wilson and Fitzmagic is an incredible combo. Hell yeah. I love that one. I love it. DK. Oh, no, not DK. You just spoke. Craig. My Philip Lindsay Ward goes to Dante Pettis on the San Francisco 49ers. He's the number one rider receiver on a team with

Jimmy Gropolo and Kyle Shanahan. And we're going to play a on game here. None of you of you look at your computers, neither of you dany's. Name four wide receivers on the San Francisco 49ers. Kendrick Bourne, Debo Samuel. Markis good one who just got heard today, Dante Bettis. Good job. Okay. And heard. Yeah, Jalen Hurd. Okay. Jailen Hurd. Okay, you're talking about Jalen Hurd? What's that? Okay, good job. But I just heard of, good. That's fine. I challenge all of you to ask your friends at home. That's why we're on this podcast, because We can name him. Did we say Trent Taylor?

No. That's another guy. Yeah, no, I'm just, the only reason I bring it up and I'm not trying to rain on your parade, Craig,

but Trent Taylor has got it in a strange amount of hype lately. Oh. I don't think it hurt, it doesn't necessarily hurt Pettus. I'm just saying it's, to me that's something to monitor going for, but continue with Pettus. Anyway,

this was last, in last year, from weeks 12 to 15, he was the wide receiver eight. And right now, already when I made this doc, he was going as the wide receiver. receiver 33 and now he's at the wire receiver 31 so people are catching on yeah he's on their eyes but um

i think he just clearly falls under the philip lindsay award of like guy who you're it's like week nine and we're like damn dante pettis is shredding it on an amazing offense in san francisco and they're like seven and two also jimmy groppolo said dante's body is maturing a few days ago so that's always a good sign it's bulking season for dante pettis core muscle healing yeah I think whoever grabs the number one receiver job in San Francisco is a great value at this point, clearly. I don't think it's going to be Debo. I'm on the Pettus train. This is good.

He passed the eye test. I think it's a good sign of where generally people's expectations are structurally wrong. If you're in on the 49ers being like, oh, they might be a 1C this year. If that's what you feel, then like you grabbed on Taylor doesn't believe in. Yeah, like if you're bullish on what Garoppolo can do in a Kyle Shanahan offense, I mean, obviously we saw what Bethard and, um, Mullins did in that offense. It's a quarterback-friendly offense. That's a good cheap stack in daily laps.

If they go off, you have to be high on Pettus, I think. I like this one. I like this whole group, actually. Now, this is my favorite award. The Brandon Stokely Award. Guys down the depth chart who are still valuable. Love Brandon Stokely. Randall third receivers under the radar guys that we like

because they're in good offenses. D.K., leading off. Yeah, this is a little bit cheating since he's probably not that rando, but Kiki Kootie of the Texans, I think, you know, obviously number three behind Will Fuller and Hopkins. But he's Watson's underneath option. Obviously, they have a strong connection. He was a target hog in the games that he played last year. I saw this stat for Mike Klee on Twitter is super interesting.

Texans receiver Kiki Kootie played in five full games last season, so I, e. games they didn't leave early. His targets in those games, 50 targets, 36 catches, 380 yards, and two touchdowns. Compare that to D'Andre Hopkins, who has. had 47 targets, 34 catches, 476 yards, and three touch rounds. So, like, their, wow, their production was actually pretty close. And you can get Kootie late. I don't, what's his ADP right now? It's, it's really far.

It's 118 and PPR is the wide receiver 49. So you can get that for free. Obviously, Hopkins is a better player and much more valuable and fancy. But for the, you know, the value that you're looking at there, that, that potential upside just as it. PPR machine, I think it is really, really interesting. That is absolutely wild. And damn. Also, Deontra Hopkins was much more injured last year than has kind of publicly knowledge.

He kind of hit a bunch of injuries and revealed them during the office. Yeah, that target status, nuts. That's a, that's a, wow, dude. You wowed us, D.K. Craig, can you wow us right now? Can you wow us with the Brennan Stokely? Those guy's not very well inducing. Ted Ginn, Jr.

He is for D.K. That's right. D.K.'s favorite player. It was like my brand for full season. The original. The original, wow. So, D.K. and Mayes laugh D.K. off the pod for picking Ted Ginn and then he crushed it.

So Ted Ginn is currently going as the wide receiver 76, which is coincidentally his age. Last year through three weeks, he had 12 catches 135 yards and two touchdowns. He was the wire receiver 40, and he was on the field for 74% of New Orleans pass plays, which is his highest rate since 2009. The year before last year, he led all wide receivers with a 77% catch rate. He was the wide receiver 34, and he's going as the wide receiver 76. That team has Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Jared Cook, and then Treyquan Smith? Like, you just can't kill Tedkin. No, like, Tedkin should be on your roster.

Like, wide receiver 70s. 2009, and you just rattled me. I was thinking of 2009, like, health care.gov and shit. I was like, oh, my God, that's such a long time. The thing about Ginn is everyone's always so worried about his, like, drops in everything. thing and his catch right. He's really efficient now. Like he really turned his career. He led all wide receivers two years ago. That's insane. He was 2017's Michael Thomas. How do you feel about him versus Treyquan Smith? He plays more.

But will that be the case? I don't know. Probably not. I would assume that Trey Quins will end up taking over the job as the season goes on. And Ted Ginn's age, who knows what's going to happen? 76 compared to Treyquon. Let me check check crunch. Trey Cohn Smith is going as the wide receiver of 59. I mean, 16 spots ahead of Ted Ginn. I don't know. Take them both and see how it goes.

I like that. My Brandon Stokely, sticking to the spirit of the award, Denver Bronco. Although I guess... No, he's a Seahawks great. Yeah. What? Brandon Stokely is a cult first, primarily. No, he's a long time Seahawks great.

He played in Seattle for one season, I believe you now. I didn't even know. I don't think I knew that. Oh, okay. I was like the age difference coming out here. He was great. He caught. a touchdown, little known fact.

People don't remember this because the beastquake was so huge, but he caught a touchdown in that beastquake game. Wow. Yeah, no, no one remembers that. You're right. Wow. Anyway, my Brandon Stokely's Deshawn Hamilton on the Broncos. I'm going to give out two words at once here because Deshawn is my Brandon Stokely because

I'm giving Emmanuel Sanders my Ocho Sinkro Award. An Ocho Sinko Award is the once good guy who's still being treated like he's good, but he's really not good. This one's, I don't, I'm not happy with this because Emmanuel Sanders is really nice, has great birthday Instagrams. You should check them out. They're like

really well produced. He has cool parties. Okay. But he tours Achilles in December. Yeah. He is 32 years old. He's in the final year

of his contract. The Broncos are very willing to let veteran players go. John Elway is tenured forever. I'm not confident that he can return

from Achilles in nine months at 32 and I'm not confident he's going to keep that job. Him and Cortland Sutton got to a fight at training camp this week. They then played it off saying they would joke pay-per-view.

That is really rare. I don't want to let that go. Like, training camp fights happen between, like, offensive and defensive linemen in practice. Position groups do not fight that often. Wide receivers do not get into, like, physical fights in practice.

Joe Flacco said it's a first time for everything. And, you know, they were like, oh, you know, from the same town, they both went to estimate. It's like, they're fighting for the receiver one job and they kind of know it. And I think at the, like, the Broncos actually have pretty good receivers.

They're going to end up with Sutton's going to be the number one. Deshaun Hamilton's the slot. And I think Flacco's actually going to be passing him quite a bit. And Deshaun Hamilton's other guy's undrafted. I think Sutton's going 97th. Sanders is going one-tenth and Deshaun Hamilton's undrafted. I would take Deshawn over Sanders himself, which I hate to say because I love Sanders as a guy and a player. But I think it might be done.

So Deshawn, that's my brand stokely. Kelly's entries suck. It's tough. I feel bad saying. It's not funny. But it is what it is. So that's kind of a downer But moving on

The post-hyped sleeper Which again self-explanatory D-K who's your post-hype sleeper for 2019 I'm going with Will Fuller Obviously expectations were high last season And then he got hurt He tore his ACL so he's coming off of an ACL But I just think if Fuller can play a full season

He legitimately has A wide receiver one upside And since that he'll finish in the top 12 scoring that's that's like best case scenario he has just such an amazing connection with Deshawn Watson in this I saw this doubt on Twitter in the 11 games that they've played together in their career and that's like over two seasons filler Fuller has caught 45 passes for 7 and 82 yards and 11 touchdowns he has an incredible touchdown rate which everyone seems to think is not repeatable which is probably

the case but he's the type of deep threat that maybe it just is repeatable anyways extrapolate that to a full season, that 65 catches, 1137 yards, and 16 touchdowns. So that's, I mean, the 16 touchdowns puts him in wide receiver one territory. So, you know, I don't know if he's going to be able to get that this year, but if he can stay healthy, I think he's going to have a massive season. He's a really good value based on where he is right now. Let's see here.

He is number, he's wide receiver 31 going off the board 77th overall. So, yeah, I just like his value. lot. He's got that Tyler Lockett and energy where he's just like, mentally. Netick to TDs. Yeah, totally. Screams regression, but some guys are just good at it, but I think Kutti could get, if Fowler stops scoring and Kutti gets the targets and Kutti's a better fantasy player than Fuller, it wouldn't be shocking. That's my only issue, Fuller, but obviously, I mean, he's a fun player to-person.

Personally, yeah, I get the regression argument. I'm a little more worried about his injury history, but man, if he could just, oh man, if he can stay healthy, I just think. Well, speaking of if he could stay healthy, but, Craig. I don't even feel that great about this, but I'm just putting it out there. You just want this on the record. Yes, I do.

In four months, we can be like, check the tape. Sammy Watkins is the wide receiver eight right now. Yeah, so it's Sammy Watkins. Obviously health is a huge factor, but wide receiver 16 last year in eight games. Pretty impressive. And is it? Kind of, considering...

He's in the best offense in the NFL, so that's... And he, surprisingly, like, despite his talent and skills played a lot of like underneath like an underneath guy he caught 32 of his 40 targets within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage last year and still managed to be wire receiver 16 he's good in the playoffs had 114 yards

in a touchdown in his last game I don't know if he's healthy and he plays 16 games he's going to be a low end wide receiver 2 and if Tyree Hill misses time look out who knows I love this like logically and rationally if I'm being a hundred percent

honest if I'm looking at Sammy Walk into that button that says draft. I don't have it in me. I don't have the heart. I get it. Speaking of similarish player. The Leonard Fournette Award, biggest bust. Guys in the top 36 who are really worried will drop massively next year.

I think we're unanimous of this. Let's just open it up. Yeah. Frozen Foot Clinic himself, Antonio Brown, who the story goes, as Chris Sims of Pro Football Talk has reported, as of Wednesday afternoon, that he froze his feet in cryotherapy?

He didn't wear the correct shoes in cryotherapy. Yes, he didn't wear the correct shoes. Weirdest story, I can remember. There's got to be something more to this. How did he injure his feet so badly? Did he try? Was it like a Michael Scott thing where he ironed or he, George Foreman Grill?

Did he panini his feet or whatever? Something's going on there. Wow. Regardless, I'm a little bit worried. Even if his feet are okay, I'm a little bit worried about his brief. production going forward. Obviously, I think the downgrade from Ben Rothberger to Derek Carr is massive and the offense change is massive. You know, like we talked about that. Like he, they had so many, they had, they led the NFL in passing attempts last year. They're always been super explosive as passers, the Steelers I'm talking about. Now going to the Raiders and Carr is over the last few years has been like a checkdown maniac. It's just all, you know, it's all super low A-dot. very unexpulsive. I'm just a little bit worried about him being able to produce at a level worth his ADP.

From Scott Barrett's awesome, 96 stats piece at PFF today. He had this great stat. Throughout his career, Brown, averages 8.4 fantasy points per game without Ben Rothsberger at quarterback. There's been 10 of those games. In all other games, that's 130 games. He averages 19.4 fantasy points per game. So they're very intertwined, clearly. That's a great number because it illustrates something that is obvious when you watch them in the field, which is Antonio Brown's skill set is he can get open and catch... He can create a window that no matter where you are and Rathusberg always finds him at the exact moment.

I mean, his back shoulder throws are... I mean, the most unguarable route in the entire NFL is Antonio Brown along the sideline. That's a timing, chemistry feel thing that just is not replicable, at least not immediately. Yeah. The Raiders last year, just to compare the two offenses,

so what you're getting into, the Raiders were 28th and points last year, the Steelers were sixth. The Raiders were 24th in offensive plays last year. the Steelers were fifth. The Raiders were 24th and past DDs and the Steelers were fifth. So, I mean, it's a massive downgrade.

So I just, I'm avoiding him in drafts. And so it makes me worried. Here's the thing. Let's just say he was still in the Steelers. He led the league in touchdowns. That alone would be enough to be like, all right, well, maybe he gets nine or nine this year instead of 15. That alone, like, how much better than 20 would he be going?

I actually don't think he was low enough before this whole foot thing happened. Like, I know that's kind of wild to think, but I think he's 31 and there are underlying numbers do suggest that he's not no longer peak

he's coming down the other side of the mountain, Apex Mountain I know we love that here he's certainly not longer Apex Mountains behind him

he's coming down the slope I he's the most likely of like the elite receivers to decline even if you're still in the Steelers I don't think we're factoring in that

in addition to this even if you don't buy that he's on a different team I don't know if I'm kind of surprised I don't agree with you if he was on the Steelers he would not be going

where he's going now he was the wide receiver one in 20 2015, 2016, and 2017. Yeah, but last year his yardage went way down. He's got a wide receiver five last year. I mean, I'm not, he's not going 20th lot. If he's on the Steelers, he's going,

there's the top two or three wide receiver. First round. Okay, I'm just surprised that... This is a Raiders thing, not an Antonio Brown thing. Yes, that's what I'm... Okay, yes. I'm saying he's not fallen as much as you would think. Or maybe I'm wrong.

I think physically he's... I mean, I don't know. He's just as, he's 31. Also, before we go, what do we think of this feat situation? he put on vans when he got into the cry of cherry chamber into the chamber what can you say I think this is an elaborate spawncon

for like a really great bunyan revolutionary like a foot lotion Jim what do you think of Antonio Brown potentially just being like it's a long con to just be SponCon I can see this being ad yeah the only thing that mattered was some guy wrote on Instagram that his feet looked like the Declaration

of Independence which I thought was the best ever thanks Jim All right, let's just run through the tiers. Again, tiers are a really helpful thing to have when you're drafting. And you're like, oh, I have 12 seconds left. What do I do? The tier thing is basically just for finding cliffs.

Like, if you want to get a tier one receiver, you have to plan it out based on where you are in the round and how much longer like you have until your next pick. So let's just go through tier one. I'll just read them off, actually. We got D'Andre Hopkins, Devante Adams, Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, O'Dell Beckham, Jr., and Jujus Smith. I think generally speaking, people believe those are like the top receivers in fantasy football and real football. Yeah, those are just lock them in wide receiver ones as long as they're healthy. Tier 2?

Yeah, run through it, D.K. All right, in Tier 2, we've got Tyree Kill. We got Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, T.Y. Hilton. I feel like I could make the case for Evans being in Tier 1, but not yet quite. And then in Tier 3, we got Julian Edelman, Adam Thieland, Stefan Digg, I think both of those guys kind of get a little bit of a drop because of the perceived run-heavy offense going forward this season. Amari Cooper, A.J. Green, who's battling an injury. Brandon Cooks, Robert Woods, and Cooper Cup.

Yeah, Green there is obviously the name that sticks out because who knows what to do with him. I personally have no interest in a receiver that, I mean, first of all, the first timeline they gave was just wrong. And, like, I don't know how to get that so wrong. He was hurting. The whole thing was weird. The whole thing is bizarre. And I look, I had Doug Baldwin in some leagues last year. I don't want a receiver that's hurt going into the season,

especially an ankle injury for receivers. Tier four, we got Kenny Galladay, Galday, Chris Godwin, Calvin Ridley. That's your son. Good his name. Yeah, Babytron. Tyler Lockett and DJ Moore. I think this is pretty straightforward. These guys are like high upside, really good young receivers. And Ridley Lockett have similar questions about whether they're like absurd touchdown rates can sustain

because they've scored a lot last year. Exactly. Tier 5, Jarvis Landry, Mike Williams, Alshan Jeffrey, Alan Robinson, Robbie Anderson, Sammy Watkins, and Will Fuller. This is like the guys, they were good a year ago, or they will be good in a year. I feel like Alshan Jeffrey is like the ghost of Christmas past from Mike Williams. Is that? What do we think of that? I think he'll be a good value this year. Tier 6. I think Alan Robinson is the name to watch there, but sorry, tier 6.

No doubt. I'm with you actually. Tier 6. Dante Pettis, Christian Kurt. Corey Davis, Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, Curtis Samuel, Kiki Kuki Kooti, Marquez Valde Scanling, Geronimo, Allison, Sterling Shepard, and D.D. Westbrook. Those are my guys. Love MVS. High upside guys who just need to make the jump. And then obviously with Golden Tate and Sterling Shepard, Tate's suspended, Stirling Shepard is injured, so there's some question marks there. They probably would have been in a higher tier if they hadn't had those question marks.

That will be the-a-draft Evan Ingram. will be the epitaph on the Giants grave. There were some question marks. Thank you, D.K., thank you, Craig. Thank you, Jim. And thank you to Evan Campbell for making our theme song. Evan, you can really ball some. So thank you. We'll be back next week.