The Ringer NFL Show - Which Fantasy Running Backs Do You Want in 2019? l The Dantasy Football Podcast

Episode Date: August 2, 2019

Danny Kelly and Danny Heifetz debate what to do with Todd Gurley, identify the key role players who could become stars, and find the 2019 version of Christian McCaffrey as they run through the most important fantasy running backs to know this season. Hosts: Danny Heifetz and Danny Kelly Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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I am joined by the fantasy analysts we need, the analyst we deserve. My co-host, my co-Danny, the Dark Night, D.K. Danny Kelly, what is on your mind? Oh man Football is back Officially It is the Hall of Fame game tonight

We're recording Thursday afternoon And it's gonna be the Drew Locke show A little bit later And I'm excited man I'm you know It's the long you know Slog of summer is over And we get football again finally

You could tattoo the Hall of Fame game On my forehead And I would still forget it happens Every year until the day before I'm very excited to be excited For about 10 minutes And then totally tune out Yeah it wears off a little quick

We're going to continue with our positional breakdown. We've done quarterbacks. Today we'll be running through everything you need to know about running backs for fantasy football in 2019. But before we dive in, we're going to take a little bit of a bigger picture view of running backs. So last season, there were the fewest rushing attempts per game of all time in NFL history. The game is changing. The game is changing. There were 25.9 carries per game per team.

NFL data goes back to 1932. So that's Herbert Hoover. There's 88 seasons. And if you stack all 88 of those seasons by rushing attempt and rank them, the bottom six are the last six NFL seasons. So this is a trend. Officially, yeah. I think people know vaguely NFL teams are running the ball less than ever before. Conversely, what is less talked about is that when teams do run, they're better at it.

2018 also had the highest yards per attempt figure in NFL history. it was the first year to ever reach 4.4 yards per carry on average. This is also a trend. If you ranked every NFL season by yards per carry, and that's just all the carries that happen in a season and then all the yards, if you ranked every season by yards per carry, the top seven seasons all happen in the last nine years.

So teams are running less and less each year, but they're gaining more and more yards when they do. This has dramatically shifted running back roles, or rather, it's probably the other way around, because as teams are specializing, the so-called Belcow running backs, which is moderately, slightly dehumanizing term, players who play all three down backs,

get 300 to 400 carries is declining. In 1998, 11 players had 300 more carries. In 2008, five players had 300 more carries. And in 2018, one player had 300 more carries. Oh, man. That was Zeke Elliott. More than, like, multiple players have not had 300 or more carries in the same season since 2014.

Do you think anyone gets 300 this year? Yeah, Zeke Elliott. Sequin maybe. Sequin, but my bet's on Zeke Elliott. But running back catches are higher than ever. In 1998, six running backs at 70 or more targets. In 2008, six running backs also had 70 or more targets. And last year, 14 running backs had 70 or more targets.

So running backs are both getting less carries, but that's not the whole story because we like tight ends have seen their market share gone down in terms of passing. running backs are going up. So now what we used to have for a fairly simple language, there's starters, backups, and third string guys, it's not really the case anymore. There's early down backs.

There's receiving backs like James White, who's not a running back. He's a receiving back. We have to evolve our language. Committee backs. Committee backs. It's a lot more complicated. So the overarching theme for this is that as the roles of running backs change,

so too how we think of running backs must change and understanding the roles players have. within their own teams can really help you gain an advantage on what a player's ceiling in their floor is and if someone goes down what they'll really be doing. So it's interesting because, you know, it's so much more difficult now, I feel like, to predict volume at that position in particular. You know, you kind of have to, in fantasy football overall, you have to be able to sort of project and predict the future a little bit.

Injuries play a huge part in the running back position, but it's also just, like you said, finding roles, figuring out what these guys, what their skill sets are, how they match up with their offenses, all that stuff. So it makes the fantasy projection game, like, so much more complex and sort of challenging. And that's really where you can get the edge in fantasy is to try and, like, take a look at these offenses, take a look at the offensive philosophies, try and figure out, you know, read the tea leaves and figure out who's going to get the majority of the touches because ultimately, you know, snaps and touches and volume is where you get fantasy production.

And putting that in practice, if there's a guy who can't really catch passes, like say a Jordan Howard and he's on a team with a terrible defense that will be down often, he might not get a lot of second half work. So that's really where it comes down to is you're much better predicting game script when we have those roles. So with that is the big picture,

we're going to dive into some awards. So off the top, DK, everybody has a guy at each position heading into a draft. Yeah. Who is your guy? at running back this year. To be clear, this is not a homer pick. Mine's Chris Carson of the Seahawks.

All right. Do we need a pause, right? Did you say it's not a homer pick? This to me, it's purely, I'm looking at this purely as a like a value discussion. You know, I don't have. It's not how the human brain works, but continue. So right now, in my mind, as long as he can stay healthy,

Carson is the clear lead cut, or the clear cut lead guy in Seattle in my mind. I think obviously, Rashad Penny, shout out Craig, is going to be a little bit bigger part of the offense in Seattle this year. And he's likely going to get quite a few more carries. But to me, Carson's been so good that I think he's still going to maintain his job kind of as the lead guy. You know, even if the Seahawks do go with a running back by committee with both guys, Mike Davis, who left in free agency, he left 127 carries on the table. He also left 42 targets and 34 catches on the board. So there's quite a bit of volume that, you know, potentially Penny could pick up all of that volume and you're still not cutting into Carson's workload potentially. Obviously, the Seahawks are extremely run heavy team.

I don't see that changing, like, you know, a lot. They're still going to try and do that a lot this season. And I think it's just overall right now he's a huge value. Last year he finished as the RB15 and PPR right now he's being drafted as the running back 26. And so there's this huge gap, I think, based on people's fear that Penny is just going to take over Carson's job, which I'm betting he won't. I think Carson could get hurt, and that would totally change everything. But I think if Carson's healthy, he's still going to get a huge, huge chunk of the volume there. So I think he's a huge value right now.

For those who did not listen to my season-long hatred of Rashad Penny, I hate Rashad Penny. And so not a surprise. You came around. That's not true. I mean, he came into camp in better shape this year by all reports. Handcuff Chris Carson with a shot. Yes, I do agree that this year you do need to handcuff them. And I also, a great piece of bar trivia is that Chris Carson had more rushing yards than Christian McCaffrey in two fewer games last year, which is fifth in the league.

I don't think most people think of him that way, but he is that way. That's the point. I do love Chris. No one's thinking of Carson as like a potential high-end RB2. And I think that's what he can be for sure. So, yes. But speaking of people who no one's thinking of, I'm going to go in my guys, my guys, my guys,

Ravens running backs. I want them all. You just want the Ravens. I want the Ravens. I'm serious. I'm in love with the Ravens this year. Obviously, I love Lamar Jackson from our quarterbacks podcast. But last year, just to hit this again,

with Joe Flacco in the first nine games, they hit were 31st in rushing yards per attempt. With Jackson, in the final seven games, they were number one in rushing yards per attempt. So they were the most efficient team, even though they were rushing 45 times per game, which isn't just the most last year. It is across a full season.

That would be the most in decades. A team has not had more than 40 per game than the Bears in 1984. The Ravens were at 45 a game. And they had no diminishing returns. They were still leading the league in yards per attempt last year. They did that over their by week. They went from one of the least rushing teams to the most.

In two weeks, they just changed their entire goddamn offense. They have the entire offseason now to figure something out. They have Greg Roman, who is the offensive coordinator for the 49ers, when Colin Kaepernick was leading that team. And then he was running all over the NFL. I love Roman going back to those days. I can't really hammer this enough. That Ravens team last year was about the most dramatic and in-season shift

as you will see ever in the NFL for a team. changing its identity mid-year. And they're totally, and they're 100% all-in on it, too, right now. So that's the thing. They have, their backups are RG3 and Trace McSorley, the rookie, you know, out of Penn State, who's a very dynamic runner, too. So I think they're all in on this. So here's the thing.

So Jameson Henley for ESPN, the beat reporter, wrote a column on July 31st, quote, headline, will Lamar Jackson, the Ravens revolutionized NFL offense? This is from John Harbaugh. Quote, we're probably doing iPhone one now. We have a whole new idea. It's not that there's anything new in there concept-wise that has never been done in football before, but the way we put it together to me is unique and different.

And then he's explained this off-season that they're pulling concepts that have not really been used since the 1950s. There's bootlegs, misdirections, RPOs, speed options, double options, midline dive options, which was his father's move. If they cut their running back attempts, they cut their rush attempts by 10 this year,

they'll still lead the league. Ingram's ADP is 46th. Gus Edwards is 235. Like that is where they're being drafted. So they're being drafted. Mark Engram's 46th and then the other two Ravens in that backfield are not being drafted.

It's incredible. They're returning all five members of the offensive line. Warren Sharp projects them to have the second easiest slate of run defenses in the league. I want, and then Justice Hill, who's third was the number one Spark athlete at the combine which stands for speed, power, agility, reaction quickness.

I don't think he's going to have an immediate impact because I don't think reading NFL defense is easy for him at first. But the fact that Gus Edwards is not higher and that Mark Ingram is not higher is nuts to me. I'm buying a piece of this backfield and if you don't love Ingram at its value, you have to love Gus Edwards.

Where people are drafting them right now makes zero sense. So I'm grabbing two of those three, if not all three. I mean, that was excellent. I agree with you completely. I think, you know, Ingram has a potential to be he's he's got like almost potential to be a sneaky back in RV1

just depending on how things go so yeah absolutely I think that's he's one of those like X factor running backs this year that I think people might be underestimating so I think there will be two top 20 running backs in that backfield he's like the opposite of a bandwagon pick like no one's talking about him and I don't know why

if they're going to be leading the league in rushing which most people accept as a fact and Mark Ingram is going in the 40s that's either too low or Gus Edwards needs to be around 100. It doesn't really make any sense. Well, I mean, a lot of people I think are a little bit nervous that Jackson is going to be eating up a lot of those rushes too. I mean, he could literally have 15 a game and they're still running. There's still 25 a game to go

around. Craig, who's your guy this year among running backs? My guy this year is strictly value-based. I was baffled when I was doing some research. It's James White on the Patriots. So James White is currently being drafted as the RB-25 in PPR leagues. The RB-25 and his... ADP is 54 overall. Last year, he was the RB7 in PPR. And everyone, I'm sure you can be like, well, yeah, that's because all he does is catch past. He doesn't do anything else. He was the RB 11 in standard. He had 87 catches last year, 14th ever in the history of running backs. And I just don't see a world in which he doesn't have this year as his floor. The Pats have

huge question marks at receiver in Tide-end. They obviously lost Rob Gruncowski and Chris Hogan. No one knows about Josh Gordon. That's potentially 195 targets to make up for. And they've added the rookie to kill Harry and the Achilles torn Demarius Thomas. All I'm saying is be smart. Don't draft him in the second round, but be smart, maybe draft him in the fourth round. Take him as like your, you know, not RB25,

maybe RB17s where you can still get your guys up top. I just think RB25 is absolutely insane. Count your money and take him in the fourth round. So people are worried right now, right, that they've got Sony Michelle and Damien Harris ahead of him plus Rex Burkhead. Are you worried?

We have no idea what's going on with Rex Burckhead. Sony-Michel has glass knees and cannot pass catch. And James White is going to be on the field, I think, more than any of those running backs. Michelle, yeah, there was a Super Bowl prop on Michelle having over half reception, so that's tough. Although, Bill Bowenwell. I took that prompt, by the way. And Bill Bourne Will had an excellent piece earlier this, or at this point, last month that said, Sony-Michel is a huge touchdown positive regression candidate, which means the amount of

of big runs he broke. Yes. Doesn't correlate. Historically, players get way more touchdowns than he got. So, but I think James White,

I mean, he led the Patriots and targets last year, so he's a pretty good bet to get over 100 this year. RB25 is just ridiculous. Yeah. All right. So away from your guy

and into bet your life guy, if you had to bet your life on this guy having an awesome year, who is that person? D.K. This was so tough because really the top four running backs,

Kamara, McCaffrey, Elliot and Sequin are excellent choices for this category. I ended up going up, going with Kamara based on a few particular reasons. Number one, Kamara's already smashed like all the regression models that we had going into 2018. He's proven that he's like good enough to just kind of just continue on with how efficient he is. And just to clarify what you mean there, he had the most fantasy points per touch ever in 2017 and then got, I mean, among players with 100. carries and they got way more in 2018 and then had the fourth most fantasy points per touch ever. So continue.

And now obviously he doesn't have to fight for snaps with Mark Ingram, who was also a very good back. Now Latavius Murray is his backup, who in my mind is a far inferior player than Ingram. I think Murray's still going to get a good chunk of carries in this offense. But I just think Kamara's going to be more like the lead back and Murray is more like the backup versus like 1A, 1B. And the biggest, maybe the biggest reason I went with Kamara here was the Saints have in an elite run blocking line. They've been a really, really solid line. They're a very dedicated run team.

They've grown more run heavy over the years. I just think Kamara is going to have a ton of opportunities to get open space, have like open holes through the line. Last year, Kamara and Ingram ranked second and third, respectively, and success rate per football outsider. So he's just got like a really high floor. Plus adding in his ability as a pass catcher's ability to line up all over the field. Obviously McCaffrey has that too. Sequin and Zique are both quality pass catchers, Sequin in particular. But Kamara to me is like almost a slot receiver the way he can run routes and things like that.

So I just love Kamara's floor. That's why I'm like putting him on the bet your life thing. He's on a good team and good offense, run heavy offense with a good offensive line. I love it. For me, I love all that, but I'm going with Christian McCaffrey, and it's really simple. He's on the field always, nine out of ten times. Snap counts by percentage last year. McCaffrey played 91, Sequin 83, Ezekiel Elliott, 83.

David Johnson, 79 and a half. Todd Gurley was on for 75, mid-80s when he was the full season. James Connor, 64, Alvin Kumar, 62%. Injuries are concerned, but nothing else because he's playing. Yeah, I mean, injuries are concerned with anybody. Exactly. That's why I'm... Caffrey's proven to be pretty durable. Also, look, I want him, I'll be in his hands.

And have you seen him this year? Holy. You seen his arms? I want to be in those arms. All right. He can hold my life. All right. Craig, Seekwan. Controversial pick here, Sequin Barclay.

He was the RB1 and PPR, RB2 and standard. Honestly, I don't even have to say anything like you get it, but no O'Dell Beckham hurts, I suppose. But the Giants got a huge upgrade at their offensive line this year. They got Kevin Zitler from the Browns, who's the number five overall guard, according to PFF. They also got Mike Remmer. and free agency who, although it might not be that great, but he's replacing Chad Wheeler,

who was PFF's fourth worst tackle out of 80 qualifiers last year. So if Sequin can do what he did last year with that line, I think he's as safe as they come this year. He's probably going to get more touches. He caught 91 passes last year, only less than Christian McCaffrey. Yeah. And they pound him inside the red zone. He had the third most carries inside the 20 and the third most inside the five. If they get to the red zone this year.

That's the thing. That's my only worry is that offense is just so bad. Is it going to be worse than last year? I think a weird thing that... I don't think sequins is obvious of a number one as people think because... I mean, now I'm absurdly biased as a Giants fan, but...

The only reason you're not picking Zeke here, none of us pick Zeke, is he's threatening to hold out. Yes, he would have been mine. Yeah. I still think Zeke is a really good bet for a top two finish. All right. Now we're going the other way.

Banwagon pick. A player that we like, but we're worried that so many people are on the bandwagon, that they're being drafted at a point that they're no longer a cool pick. Right. So this one,

this was really a tough one actually for me. I ended up going with Dalvin Cook of the Vikings. Talent is not the question. I think he's a very, very good runner. I think there's a lot of signs that show he could potentially

have a huge season. The Vikings are going to a much more heavy, run-heavy approach this year under Kevin Stefansky. And I think all that kind of is the reason people are drafting him so high right.

now. But I'm just a little bit worried about his health. Obviously, health is an issue with all running backs on every team. But Cook just hasn't really shown the ability to kind of like stay healthy, be durable, all that. I think he's, you know, missed like half of the games that he's been eligible for in the first two seasons. So the other thing that worries me a little bit is, yeah, they're going to be a little bit more run heavy this year. But the line's atrocious. They did draft a guy, Alexander Madison, in the third round, and, you know, potentially be. like a running back by committee there. So just worries me slightly.

I'm kind of staying away from Cook overall in that early second round. I think it's the range she's typically going in. It just makes me a little bit worried. I have two bones to pick with you here. One, I mean, Dalvin Cook, if he gets hurt and you have Alexander Madison or Mike Boone handcuffing him, then you're fine. If you'd levy on bail last year, but you did grab James Connor, you were fine. Secondly, I get the Vikings PFF offensive line ranking is 25, but the Seahawks are 23.

So what's the difference between Carson and Cook? Well, yeah, and that's a good point. I mean, that was just sort of like a tack-on thing. Like, it's the you want to pick guys in good offenses. The Vikings weren't a good offense last year overall. The Seahawks were a pretty good offense last year. And it kind of goes back to the thing like Red Zone carries and all that. It's just a trickle-down thing.

But yeah, overall, like maybe their offense is going to be a lot better. this year. Maybe they're going to be a lot more run-heavy, but there's a lot of maybes going on with Cook, and that's kind of why I'm worried. That's fair. You have to handcuff him if you draft in this year. It's absolute must. Yeah, I think so. For me, my bandwagon guy's David Johnson. He's going roughly eighth in drafts this year. Volume is huge, but, you know, volume's king of fantasy football, but so is volume in places where players can succeed. David Johnson got bad, empty calorie volume last year. The Cardinals ran the ball, 22.2 times per game, which was the fifth lowest in the league, because they were always losing.

but when they did run, they ran directly up the gut. They ran in the middle, like, to the left or right of the center, 12.7 times a game, which was the second highest figuring the league. So they, like, never ran. But when they did run, they made sure to send David Johnson into the middle, even though he's like one of the best running backs in space in the entire league. So Mike McCoy, bless his heart, was their offensive coordinator last year. He got fired midseason.

Now we have Cliff Kingsbury, who's the exact opposite. He's about space and getting players in positions where they have open space and can just win matchups. He wants to restore David Johnson to 2016 when he was like number one player in all fantasy and like make him great. And it's like, I get it. It's amazing.

It's exciting. But like, that sounds awesome. But there's so many variables. But none of this has been done. It sounds cool, but he hasn't shown they can do this in the NFL. I think that long term, the air raid will work that with the air raid's about,

you throw so many receivers downfield and you just bank that they can't cover them all. I think that this brand of football will work. But I don't want in on year one. Kingsbury got passed over for every college head coaching job. I'm not 100% sure you can make it working in the NFL level. And it's just, to me, my first round pick, you need to hit it. Matthew Barry has a good rule.

You can't win your draft in your first round, but you can lose it. I think David Johnson has a much higher chance of losing it than like the other players. The only thing I have to say about that is the Cardinals were an absolute dumpster fire last year, and he was the RB9. That's fair. But I also, I don't know if they won't be a dumpster fire. I think that there's so much that can go wrong. Worse than last year? I think they can be worse than the Josh Rosen, Cardinals last year.

I'd still rather have James Connor or David Johnson. I know that sounds crazy to say. I get that. I guess it's just the unknown is scary. Yeah. And you're saying, I'm a coward. The devil you know is better than the devil you don't know. God damn, right.

That's right. That's right. Ignorance is bliss. That's what Plato said. All right. Ocho Sink cohort, the once good guy who's still being treated like he's good, but really not good.

Age or related, scheme related, whatever, and could fall off the map this year. DK. I think there maybe it was one season where people thought Jordan Howard was good. Oh yeah,

for sure. This is a great pick. That day had passed. I don't think. Does anyone think Jordan Howard's good? People did for sure. People did that for a minute. But, I mean, obviously,

you know, people had a cup of coffee with Jordan Howard. Yeah, but I mean, I'm just saying the description of the word's present tense, so it's fine. We'll give DK an exception.

It's okay. Here, let me rephrase the award. People are still taking him high enough as if he's good. How's that? Wow, that's okay. Yeah, fair.

Come up with math. The Eagles investment in Howard was absolutely minimal. It's a 20-26 rounder to pick him up. He's only making $2 million a year, $2 million this year, and he has zero dead money if he's cut. So the investment in it is very, very low. I'm ultimately banking on Miles Sanders, taking over the lead role sooner than later. And I think you're going to, it almost reminds me a little bit of last year with the Browns when they had Carlos Hyde in the early part of the season,

they just ran him into the ground. And he actually was a viable fantasy guy for a few weeks, but then Nick Chub took over and it was just, see you later. And I think that could happen earlier this year for the Eagles. Sanders is already getting kind of rave reviews in practices and training camp and all that. And Howard is just a plotter.

I mean, he's just a straightforward guy. He ranked 58th out of 62 qualifying running backs last year and elucidating for pro football focus. He broke 22 tackles on 250 attempts versus, for context, Nick Chubb forced 44 mistackles on 192. So more than, or twice as many on, you know, way fewer attempts. And so I don't know. To me, it's just like, I don't know why you're going to be wasting reps with Howard when you got a guy like Miles Sanders, who I think you took, didn't they take him in the second round, early third, whatever it was, you know, it was a pretty substantial investment in him. And he's already showing out a little bit in practices.

So I think he'll end up, obviously, a lot of people are afraid because Peterson's done a committee approach in the past. But to me, they haven't really had guys worth having the belcow status or whatever. I don't know if Sanders is going to be a true belcow. I think he's going to dominate touches relative to the other guys. So, yeah, I think to me, Howard is a guy I'm fading. I'm not even really looking at him. To add a little bit of context of all the research of what predicts future running back performance, yards after

yards after first contact is among the best and Jordan Howard's very bad in that category Sanders did tweak his foot at practice today. Today is Thursday

so if that's not a lingering injury I still like him to eventually win that job but obviously sign a monitor. For me, my Ocho Sinko award

really simple. LaShawn McCoy on the bills who people do still think is good and it's amazing. In 2017, LaSherne McQuay at his worst career yards per carry

at 4.0 which was 25th among 48 qualified rushers. Last year, that dropped to 3.2 yards per carry, which was 48th among 49 qualified running backs. D.K., you know, we have a word for that, 48th of 49. What is it? Yikes. And then this year, the bills added three backs.

They have with the ancient and immortal demigod Frank Gore, they have T.J. Yeldin, who's only 25 somehow and did play at Alabama. And then third rounder Devin Singletary. So, Lashore McCoy is not you, you're not in line for anything. Lechon McCoy is in line for a career low

in having the ball in his hands and when he does have the ball in his hands, he is doing less with it than ever before. Not in on LaShawn McCoy this year. Also, Google search

Lechon McCoy lawsuit next time you can. Just, you know, you might learn something, a little enlightening. All right. The Brandon Stokely Award because we're still going to stick in the bill's backfield,

these are guys down the depth chart who are still valuable, sometimes third receivers, sometimes the third running back who can win that job. So, D.K. Who's your Brandon Stokely? I mean, on that note,

I really like, right now he's the RB 54, 156 overall in ADP, Devin Singletary. He's a rookie, obviously. There's a lot of question marks in that backfield, but to me,

I feel like he's going to end up sooner than later kind of getting a big significant part of that, that, you know, backfield action. And so, you know, they invested enough in him to make you think that they're high on him.

I think it was the third rounder they used to pick him. He's very elusive. He's a kind of guy that will make guys miss behind the line and then also in the open field. So I don't know. I just like him. There's some concerns about his overall speed, which I think why he dropped to the third round. But yeah, I think he's the guy who, you know, eventually the cream is going to rise to the top. I don't like the rest of that back field very much.

And I think eventually he'll have a bigger, bigger role. and potentially fantasy, you know, worthwhile down the stretch. I, a lot of people liking the shirt. I don't like the shirt. I don't like the bills. I just don't want to be involved.

Bills, dolphins, 49ers. Get me out of there. That's fair. My, my Brennan Stokely this year, just the role player, Latavius Murray, it's,

I mean, I would go with the Ravens this year, but this is VMA's style. It's like if you win the number one award, you know, it's like, you know, we can't just have someone sweeping the categories. So I'm rolling with Latavius Murray. Really simple.

Mark Ingram, since 2014, finishes among fantasy running backs, 15th, 15th, 10th. Then in 2017, when Alvin Kumar showed up, Ingram rose to sixth. Last year, he was suspended for PEDs for the first, we're testing positive for PEDs for the first four games, still finished 21st. Murray is going 31st this year. That doesn't make sense to me. He is a much worse receiver and does less than the passing game, but he's a better red zone runner. and I mean he would have to have so much less of a role than Ingram that he's just I think he's an excellent value this year. Yeah.

And importantly, there's no one behind him. I don't think Dwayne Washington is going to be skewing carries. I think it's a two-man backfield this year. This is a, to me, this is a perfect example of the idea in fantasy football where you should probably still take players who you don't think are that good. And Murray is like the perfect example this season. I don't think he's that good, but he's in a great offense. that has proven production with their running back groups. So, yeah, I think, I mean, as much as you hate, you know,

kind of like to pull the trigger on that, he could have a huge year, especially if Kamara got hurt. So, yeah, I think you're right on this one. Gregorio. All right, I'm picking Carlos Hyde on the Chiefs. This is sneaky. Remember him? Speaking of bad players who you have to suck it off and take a bad player.

Carlos Hyde is not bad. Carlos Hyde only a season before last season was the RBB. and was really good on the Niners and had that week one that everyone thought he was Adrian Peterson. He didn't have 14 since then. No, whatever. Craig, I remember that game so. Remember that? He had like 200 yards and I was like, this is the best running back I've ever seen in my life.

He was so good. That's the equivalent of being like, yeah, this girl stared at me once three years ago. He was the RB9. He had a whole season. What year was it? 2017! Dude, he had, he's been cut. It's been like 18 months since that. He's been cut three times. Okay, just just continue. Okay. Damien Williams is the starter.

How many carries is Damien Williams had in a regular season game? What's the most? It's 13. He's had 50 carries in a full season. That's it. And Carlos Hyde doesn't even need an injury from Damien Williams, I think, to usurp him. And I know he was not great last year. He was also fifth in the percentage of rushes against eight plus defenders in the box. All I'm saying is he's a cheap draft pick. He's a handcuff.

Any handcuff in Andy Reid's offense is valuable. And like I said, I think he has a chance to just straight up beat out Damien Williams, who's unproven, and Carlos Hed's going as the RB 45. I think I've had Hyde in a league every year since he came into the league. For some reason, I just can't quit Carlos Hyde. I agree with you. I think there is some

if you're actually read today on Twitter that I can't remember who it was. One beat reporter thinks he might get cut. If he does... A B reporter has a take to get some news? Oh, shocker. Craig talking about people with takes. Hey, I'm with you, Craig. I'm not I'm not saying you're wrong.

I'm saying if I does get cut, though, then go get like Darwin Thompson or whatever. But I like the reasoning. You're picking a guy who's a backup in an elite offense. Andy Reid's offenses are always productive with running backs. Yeah, I mean, it's just like if Williams gets hurt, you're printing money with their backup. So, you know, you have to take kind of like a dart throw.

I think hide, you know, they signed Hyde with like a role in mind. And I think, you know, the logic is all there. If he gets cut, then go get Darwin Thompson. This is the Brandon Stokely Award. Okay? Carlos Hyde's okay for that. You're not vetting your life on this guy? Brain Stoke gives a good value.

Now let's move on. The Christian McCaffrey Award, this is very specific. League winners. Christian McCaffrey was at the tippity top of the list of players who were on championship squad last year in ESPN leagues. So right now, these are players who are second or third rounders who in 2020 might be going in the top five.

Of their position. Yeah. of the position. So, D.K. Who's a, who's a league winner? A tough one. I ended up going with Nick Chubb, the Browns. And to me, it's a combination of things.

Number one, I think he's really good. Number two, I think the Browns are going to have a really good offense and give him a lot of opportunities around the goal line. And number three, it's just really, really difficult to break into the top five of this running backs group. So I had to, again, I just had to pick a guy who I think the volume in the, in the talent kind of could get him there. So last year he was second in rushing grade per pro football focus, second among qualifying

running backs and the elusive rating, broken insane amount of tackles. He's fourth in breakaway rate, meaning the percentage of his yards that came on big plays. He has room to grow as a receiver, sure. And I think there is a worry that you have Kareem Hunt, you know, behind him down the stretch after his 10-game suspension is over. But I just think, you know, he was the second rounder for them. I think he's going to be their belcow. I think Duke Johnson will be a factor, but he might even get traded at some point.

I just think Chubb has the ability to be a Belkow guy, and the talent is there in a great offense. So I think, you know, all those things together, he could be a real big riser for me. I love Nick Chubb. He's so good. Nick Chub also is an important thing to distinguish because there's two types of sleepers, and we're going to go into Philip Lindsay next. There's the Nick Chub who is so talented, but there was no path for him last year. and then there's the McAfris

who are guys who might just take the leap I love this. Craig, who's your league winner? Oh my God, I'm so excited for this. Although he... We have like a take sound. Do you do it? Like, what's the hot take sound?

This isn't that hot on the take. I know, but okay, but really because the next award is the Leonard Fournette Award for Biggest Bust and I'm picking Leonard Fornett. As a league winner. League winner. As Christian McCaffey. All right.

So here's the thing. I think Sequin Barclan Market corrected Leonard Fornet. And we all forgot about him. I think he's supremely talented and Saquan Berkeley has wiped our memory of how good he is. Yeah, because he's better, but continue.

He is better, but Fortnet, albeit a pedestrian 3.7 yards procuring his first years. But he had 16 touchdowns and a massive workload, so it kind of helped him be a little bit relevant. Anyway, per rhodo world, new head coach, John D. Filippo

has already stated that Furnet will be a major part of the offense. I'm going to call it what it is. He's going to be a major reason where our offense goes. We got Nick Foles. We don't have Blake Bortals. huge upgrade.

T.J. Yelden's gone. That's 78 targets up for grad, and they got Alfred Blue to replace him who can't catch passes. Oh, my God. Yeah. So... Alfred Blue.

And then they have Armstead in the fifth round, the rookie who caught 29 passes in 47 games in college. Also not a pass-catching threat. The Jags are way better this year with Foles. They have a lot more opportunities

for Nett. And I think the biggest thing to get excited about is their offensive line is back and healthy. They have Cameron Robinson, Andrew Norwell, and Brandon Linder

are all back. They were all hurt last year. Their entire left side of the line. Yes. And they drafted Joanne Taylor. They're going to have an extremely above average offensive line this year. And although health is a big concern, I know he's had foot issues, every NFL player has helmets going into their knee every single day.

If he stays healthy, he could be a literal no-brainer RB1, like the RB5 this year. So I have to be a little transparent here. I'm going to take people behind the curtain. I was glancing at the notes on this shared Google Doc we have. And I looked at some of Craig's, because I had a couple names and I was glancing at this because I was so shocked to see the name. And then as I read his bullets, I remembered my thought vividly, which was, holy fuck, he's right. I'm so in on this.

It is unbelievable for because of everything you said. But most importantly, Blake Bortles is gone. It's like the wicked witch is dead. It's like the biggest improvement a team can make is not going from an average quarterback to an elite one. It's going from the worst quarterback to a fine quarterback. That is the biggest move a team can make. It changes the entire complexion of what is possible.

And Nick Foles is fine, but fine is so much better than Blake Borels. Nick Foles is competent in so many areas that Blake Bortle's was not. That was like, oh, this is a real offense now. And I'm so in on this. And it's also his third season. It feels like he's been in my life forever. It also looks 45 years old. I know because he's balding.

Who cares? Yeah, it's like, but he's like, it's this third season. And he went into his first two not healthy. He had a foot injury entering his rookie year. And he had a hamstring injury entering this year. He's healthy entering this season. It's like, so yeah, fine. Craig's right.

Can we count, that's the first and last time I'll say that this year. Craig is right. Next up, the Leonard Four Nett Award. For Biggest bust. D.K., your pick. I mean, I had to go with Leonard for me. Unreal. I mean, look, hey, I actually agree with everything that you're saying.

I just think he's incredibly unreliable. I think there is a solid. He's the biggest boomer bust guy in this running back group potentially. He's a guy, like you said, who if he can stay healthy, that offense gives him the opportunity, the volume, to be awesome. But, I mean, look at the last couple years. Look at last year. You know, he was injured.

His hamstring was hurt a lot. You got like soft tissue injuries. he was in the doghouse with Coughlin. It just feels like to me, he's one or two messups from like them just moving on from him, honestly. And so, you know, I just think obviously he could be the type of guy, like he said, the league winner.

But he could also be a guy who they just kind of like decide to move on from after three or four games of him, whatever. And go with Alfred Blue? Yeah, no way. No, I like also. Talk about it. First of all. Armstead, baby.

We'll talk about him. Contract extension two years from now, yeah, they might not give him that. But you know who's aware of that? Leonard Forenett. And I also disagree. He has been unreliable, but I guess what I'm banking on, the light bulb that clicked on with Craig listing all that, was the offense cannot be compared to something led by Blake Bortles.

It can't be compared. Also, last year he was the RB12 in the eight games he played. Yeah. All right, we'll see. We will see. Let's do it. I'm buying my jersey. Love Lenny.

All right. Craig. I'm going to keep this quick. Who's your Leonard for net other than real Leonard for net? Disappointment guy. I think Derek Henry has a real chance to go from like a top, you know, your no-brainer RB2 to next year. We're just like, man, that was a crazy three games in 2018. Like his offensive coordinator is a tight-ends coach and no one knows what's going to happen.

And Derek Henry's been pedestrian for 90% of his career. I just think, you know, we have no idea what that offense is going to look like. The Titans are probably not going to be very good. There's a chance that he just goes back to what he was before those three games, which was 14 carries a game for 48 yards. I, Derek Henry's the new Amari Cooper. Derek Henry's the new Amari Cooper. He has three games a year that you're like, oh my God, this is the truth.

And then just, oh, straights you on. My, all right, this is, all right, guys, buckle in because this is, we've reached that time of the pod. Buckle up, fuckaroo. My Leonard Fournette Award for a guy who will disappoint you this year. It's Todd Gurley.

Wow. We had to talk about time, really. I can't believe it took this long. I know, I know. It's like the main event. People know what happened this point, but in case you don't. He was the best running back in

fantasy for all of 2017 and then most of 2016, injures his knee and then basically gets usurped, well, most of it, but then gets usurped by C.J. Anderson, who was signed off the street and then, like, actually said that he had gained 15 pounds because his wife was pregnant and he was eating with her and that he was not in shape the whole season. Yeah. And he's a good partner. Whatever. Yeah. Hey, ride or die. That's fine. But C.J. Anderson's not a good running back. The Rams' offense line was tearing open holes. I am out on Gurley for this reason. The undiscussed part of this is that the Rams ran Gurley into the ground. They knew he had these knee issues. They knew they would happen,

even when they gave him the extension. They did not manage his workload enough in the first four years of his career. And because they are so committed to him, they have like almost $16 million owed to him. Forty-five million of which. So this year's cap, it's $9 million. Next year, it's $17. They can't get out of it for three years. There's only one answer to that. They have to manage his workload. Last year when he was doing all that amazing stuff and he was the number one running back and on an historic pace like Ladani and Tomlinson-esque level, he was getting mid-80% of their snaps, which was second to McCaffrey. This year, they have to manage his workload. I don't love where Darrell Henderson's going, who they drafted to be his backup, but Gurley to me, it's so

exciting to take him, but you have to nail your first two picks. And to me, Gurley is so risky and he just, his volume will go down so much. I also don't like the Rams offense. They lost their center, John Sullivan, which he was like a coach on the field. He's like going over. He's the one on the sideline with McVeigh on the iPad. He's older than McVeigh. Can we quote Danny that he said he doesn't like the Rams offense? No, this year.

Look, look. So if we're going to do this right now, we're going to do it. Okay. The first eight, the Rams dropped off a cliff after that Chiefs game and no one remembers it. Matt Patricia figured out how to take advantage of the fact that Jared Gough cannot anticipate when receivers get open. It is a unbelievable quality in an NFL quarter.

back. Jared Goff needs to see Brandon Cooks get open before he can throw the ball. He can't anticipate. Matt Patricia chipped away at it. The week later, the Bears, just in Vic Fangio, the defensive quartered, ate them alive was the worst game of the year. They never recovered. They, it papered over it by

shitting on the Cardinals who were the worst team in the whole league and then shitting on the Niners who like gave up toward the end of December. That defense is almost as bad as the Cardinals. And they didn't beat it. They weren't good elsewhere. Well, they made the Super Bowl. They did go to the Super Bowl. And they lost by three. But yeah, you're right.

So the next category is a rational rookie and unproven love. And we're going to continue this because the counterbalance to this is DK. You're a rational rookie. I mean, he's pretty rational, but continue. And I take I take umbrage with what you said of they drafted Daryl Henderson to be Gurley's backup. Because I don't think he's going to be his backup. I think they're going to be, you know, like used in tandem. I think Henderson has a chance to be on the field with him at the same time too.

Like he's that good of a receiver. there's whispers kind of out of Rams camp that, you know, actually from McVeigh's mouth itself, like that they're going to use more formations, more personnel groupings this year than, you know, obviously they were like 96% 11 personnel last year. It wouldn't surprise me if they used Darrell Henderson on the field, you know, move him around the formation, all that.

Super explosive guy. If their offense continues to be sort of high efficiency, you know, maybe not, as Danny said, but, you know, he's going to, I think he has a chance to be really, really efficient. as a runner. He's not going to get a ton of volume as long as Gurley is still in there, but I think he can do a lot with it. I think he's actually a

flex option, kind of like weekly flex type guy. So, I really, really like Anderson. I think longer term, he could potentially be Gurley's successor, but even in the short term, you know, he's going to be, I think he's going to be a dynamic weapon for them. Scott Barrett at PFF tweeted

or he wrote this today, actually, among 1300 qualifying running back seasons that PFF has tracked, Henderson's 2018 season ranks best in yards after contact per attempt and his 2017 season ranks second best. He's just a freak. So I'm really excited to kind of see what he can do in that offense. Obviously, you got grilling in front of them. But I think even with sort of a timeshare, he can be a fantasy factor. I can't believe you took Umbridge with my comment. I don't even know what Umbrage means. Yeah, those are video game numbers, six yards after contact. That's insane.

So, but my irrational rookie, and I would posit that perhaps Daryl Henderson is a very rational rookie. Mine's irrational. Alexander Madison on the Vikings. I'm so in on the Vikings run game. You mentioned this toward the top, but basically they were, Mike Zimmer's, the head coach, was so upset with how much they were passing this year. He laid down the law. They're going to run. They fired D. Flippo because of it.

Yeah, it's crazy. They brought in Gary Kubiak. He is all about the zone scheme. In his own scheme, you want to run a one-cut runner, which basically means you need someone decisive. They hit a hole and they hit it. So, like, Aaron Foster, undrafted guy out of Tennessee, but he's a decisive running back. He's not, like, the most fastest guy,

but he was incredible, obviously, because in Kubiak zone scheme. Madison is a third rounder, not that fast, kind of a bigger guy, but he's a very decisive running back. And if Cook does get hurt, and as we mentioned toward the top, Cook does get hurt or has in his first two seasons,

I think Madison could be an unbelievable pick. To piggyback on this, I agree with you. He's a must have like handcuff. 100%. I also really like Mike Boone. Mike Boone was amazing in the preseason last year. So both of those Vikings backups are kind of guys to keep an eye on. I completely agree.

And on that note, the Philip Lindsay Award, this is for someone who, there's a lot of times we love a sleeper, but there's times we love talent and they don't have an opportunity. There's other times we love someone because they have an easy path. The Philip Lindsay Award is for someone that, like, cuts them off the pass and, like, beats them to that path. So this year, who's your Philip Lindsay Award? We'll just go through this real quick. And we already addressed it in the 4-NAT one, but Reikwell-Armstead Jaguars.

I think he's the starter if 4-Nat goes down, or at least the early-down guy. And it's all banked on the fact that 4-Nett missed games last year with soft-issue injuries and has been pretty unreliable for that team overall. So if 4-Net does end up just kind of being a bus this year, I really like Armstead's ability to kind of take it, takeover. A lot of volume in the offense. They're going to run the ball. Their offensive line is so

much better this year. Yeah. I love it. For me, I'm just going to run through all the handcuffs that I think could absolutely crush if they end up getting a role. We mentioned Latavius Murray on the Saints. We mentioned Daryl Henderson. Those guys have an Austin Echler on the Chargers. Those guys have value even if they're playing. Pause on Echler. Have we mentioned Echler before? Because he could be huge with Melvin Gordon potentially holding out. I have no. Melvin Gorton's going to play. We don't. probably, but his agent asked for a trade yesterday or today. This is where my two cents on this,

Levian Bell deep in his heart felt disrespected and wanted to play. And wanted to play, but he held out for moral reasons. That's why there was so much complication around it. What Gordon and Zika are doing is much more of a traditional negotiating tactic. I think they're going to play. Melvin Gordon has a team of agents at CIA where this is the way they've handled this in the media. It's very public. It's very different than,

than Levi-M-Bel, who wasn't even texting his teammates. I think it's not, they want you to think it's similar because it's leverage. I think he plays. In fact, I think he's a good value this year. I think Jalen Samuels on the Steelers is a huge handcuff to James Connor. We mentioned Gus Edwards and Justice Sell and the Ravens who are being way underdrafted. And the last one's Chase Edmonds on the David Johnson, because for all the reasons we love David John, or people do love David Johnson this year, I think Chase Edmonds is the best bet to get a huge role if David Johnson, anything happens to him. Taney, who's the handcuff in New York?

Who is Sequin's handcuffs? I don't think there is one. Galman? I don't, the big difference is Chase Edmonds can be 65 or 70% of David Johnson if they plug him in. No one can replace what Sequin does for the Giants. There's no. So there's that. Rod Smith?

No, there's the quote, Tom Moore quote. I think Kevin Clark likes to tell this little bit. But Ron Jaworski wrote a book. He was talking to Tom Moore, who's the coordinator for the cults. And they asked him why Peyton Manning's backup wasn't getting reps. And Tom Moore said, we don't practice. fucked and we're fucked if 18 goes down. That's the Giants.

There's no plan if Sequin gets hurt. Moving on, the Post Type Sleeper Award. Yeah, so for me, this is Aaron Jones. Obviously, going into last year, a lot of people were super psyched about Jones, and then it ended up being a pretty heavy RBBC running back by committee there. Does anyone say RBBC? Like, actually say it like that? 100,000% no.

And please never say that on this podcast ever again. I was reading it. Anyway, you know, it could still be a little bit of a time share there in Green Bay this year, but I still think he's going to have a much, much bigger year. You were seventh in DVA last year, super efficient, six in success rate. He's just head and shoulders better than Jamal Williams. Dexter Williams, the rookie could kind of challenge, I guess, but yeah, I mean, I just think finally under LaFleur, they're going to finally give him kind of a chance to do his thing.

And so I think he's a good guy, you know, like to target in that second, third round. in a similar range. I've got Carrey on Johnson and the Lions, Craig's favorite from last year. Love them. Really simple. They cut Theoretic.

Another ding-don and the witch is dead. No disrespect to Theo. But Johnson now is going to get way more. They're running more. They have Daryl Bevel as their offensive

coordinator. They're going to run a lot. They have been a terrible running team. I think they'll actually be pretty good. They've talent on their offensive line and Karen Johnson's going to be a huge opportunity and C.J. Anderson

is not going to take carries from him. And there's value there because people think he will, but he sucks. So he won't. He might take. is lunch. Mine is

Devante Freeman. Yeah. Who missed most last year with injuries. But before that, he was like the number

one fancy player in 2015, top 10 in 2016, and was okay in his 13 weeks when he was healthy in 2017, who was ranked ninth.

So the thing about him this year is one, Tevin Coleman's gone, which is huge. And they didn't really do anything to replace him.

There's Edo Smith, who's really not going to cut into much of his workload. The two things I quickly wanted to hit on were goal line volume.

He's had 29 touchdowns from 2015, 2015 to 2017, thanks to 41 carries inside the opponent's five-yard line. That's the second most of all running backs. Man. And now his O-line is a lot better than it was last year. They got two first-round picks they added, and they added James Carpenter in free agency.

So he's going as the RB-19, and they've said he's looked great in the off-season. He's healthy. He's only 27 years old. I think he's a solid, solid value at RB-19. I think that's a really good value, too. I look at Devante Freeman the same as Gurley. Really nice guy. I hope he was an amazing season.

I wish he does it on someone else's team and the injury risk keeps someone else at night but I hope he does really well. Now we're going to run through running back tears. Sorry, should I explain tears? We're going to run through running back tiers right now where, look, rankings, you can disagree who's 13th or 14th.

As long as you're getting the vague groups of people right, it doesn't really matter what order they're in. You want to make sure you understand where they fit in along with the rest and tiers of value. When you go into your draft, again, we talked about this last time, but you're looking for cliffs. Like if you want to get into, like,

you know, you're looking forward at what's going on in the draft, where you could get guys. And if you're at the end of one tier, you might need to take this guy or else you're going to miss out on the entire tiers, if that makes sense. So, yeah, we kind of group these together in, you know, like players that have sort of similar workload, I guess, in volume projections.

So let's go through them. Tier one is as sure as it gets, Danny, wanting to go through Yeah, so I sure sure gets Sequin, Christian McCaffrey, Kamara, Elliott. Yeah, I mean, those are like basically the top four in any different order of almost every single draft,

every one quarterback draft. If you know, you know. The second tier, three down running backs who can dominate. David Johnson, Levy on Bell, James Connor, Melvin Gordon, Joe Mixon. Yeah, and I think Craig had Melvin Gordon in tier one. Yeah, I mean, I...

So keep that in mind. Like, he's the kind of potential, like, huge, huge upside. Yeah, he is. For me, yeah. Tier three, these are RB2s who could be end up as top ten guys. Gurley, Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, Leonard Fournette, Damien Williams on the Chiefs, Aaron Jones, and the Packers, Defonte Freeman and the Falcons, and Marlon Mack on the Colts. Mack is a very interesting one to me. Yeah, I'm going to be super interested to see kind of how they use him because they've got a couple other, you know, Nahim Hines, Spencer Ware, Wilkins.

They got a lot of guys in that backfield, so it'll be interesting to see if they use him as a Belcow. He does have one RB1 upside, I think, just based on how good that offense is going to be. Yeah, and then Tier 4, decent second running backs. Carry on Johnson and Detroit, Josh Jacobs on Oakland, Derek Henry and Tennessee, Philip Lindsay on the Broncos, and Mark Ingram on the Ravens, Chris Carson and the Seahawks, Sony Michelle on the Patriots. And there's a lot of, I think, probably people would question a few of these. I think Philip Lindsay's stock is definitely taking a nose dive of late. There's a lot of talk of running back by committee with Royce Freeman.

They signed theoretic, which is bad, yeah. Sony Michelle would be another one. I'm sure a lot of people are contentious about just based on his knee. Chris Carson we talked about earlier. I actually think Jacobs maybe could be in Tier 3, Josh Jacobs. I think they're going to use him a ton this year. Tier 4 is like one of the – it's a weird tier, I guess. It's something – like a lot of question mark guys in there.

I agree. And then Tier 5, reluctant RB2s, but great flexes. David Montgomery and the Bears, who's slated for a lot of carries. Kenyon Drake on the Dolphins, James White, Craig's favorite, and then Tareke Cohen, also on the Bears. James White should be Tier 4. I'll die on that. I agree. What I'm going to say about James White is he had seven receiving touchdowns.

Do you think he's going to do that again? Who else is going to? That's a good question. People whose names we won't learn because they sign them in week five. Tier 6, flex options. Darius Geis and Washington, T Evan Coleman. on a 49ers almost slipped there. Lamar Miller on the Houston

Rashad Penny on Seattle with Sean McCoy with the bills. Not for me. Miles Sanders on Eagles. I think McCord should be lower and Sanders should be higher personally. I think Coleman should be higher. Yeah, I agree.

I think Coleman is going to be the clear-cut guy in San Francisco and that gives him immense upside. But yeah, there's plenty of reason to be a little bit worried based on the fact they have like 12 guys in the running backs group. But I think Coleman rises to the top of that. It's a 10-foot pole backfield for me. I'm not touching the Niners with the 10-foot pole.

High upside non-starters. Darrell Henderson on the Rams who we discussed. Eccler, who we also just discussed. Jordan Howard on the Eagles who, yikes. Kareem Hunt with the Browns, Latavius Murray on the Saints, Royce Freeman with the Broncos, who's rising. Ronald Jones on the Bucks, who I am so disappointed to both of you for ranking the way you did.

Damien Harris on the Patriots. Who could be the starter if Sonya Michelle's knee keeps acting up, so yeah. So those are the high upside non-starters. This was the Dynasty Football Podcast. those are the running backs. Thank you guys for listening. Thank you, DK, thank you Craig, thank you, Jim.

We'll see you next week. Yeah.