The Ringer NFL Show - Which Fantasy Tight Ends, Defenses, and Kickers Do You Want in 2019? l The Dantasy Football Podcast

Episode Date: August 12, 2019

Danny Kelly, Danny Heifetz, and Craig Horlbeck discuss the tight end middle class, which sleepers could join the elite tier in 2019, and “advice" on kickers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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to follow your favorite team no matter where you live. Use promo code Ringer at checkout to save 15%. Packages are also available for football fans living in areas where Direct TV service is not available. Welcome to Tyler Eifert's breakout year and welcome to the fantasy football podcast. I am joined by the fantasy analyst we need, the analyst we deserve, my co-host, my co-danny, the Dark Night Danny Kelly. D.K., what is on your mind? What is up, Danny? How are you doing? I am doing fantastic. We're also here with Craig and Jim.

Craig is just a darling today. Jim is warm and fuzzy as always. You know it. What's on your mind? Craig and Jim, anything? I'm on the Iford bandwagon with you. What an intro. He is the captain.

We are continuing our positional breakdown. We have an entire episode, already devoted quarterbacks, an entire episode for running backs, an episode for wide receivers. You can check those out on the ringer NFL show feed. Today we are scrunching up the rest and combining tight ends,

defenses and kickers into kind of like a soup, a stew. I don't know. I'm not a chef. But mostly tight ends. Mostly tight ends. It's a tight end soup. Kickers don't have right.

as far as I'm concerned. But before we get into that, we're just going to touch on a bigger idea of tight ends overall. Last year was a wild year, literally record setting. Zach Ertz broke the single season record for receptions by a tight end. Travis Kelsey broke the single season record

for receiving yards by a tight end. Three hours later, George Kittle re-brokeld that record for receiving yards by a tight end. All three were top 15 at targets with an insane career high in targets. But the rest of the tight-in class is a really weird story. So, D-K. apart from sort of the big three the tight end i guess we call it the middle class the middle part of

the tight end one group is really struggling right right now over the last few years i mean uh heard this note from rich reber on the late round podcast last week um tight end targets have dropped by 94 175 and 156 in each of the three seasons uh each the last three seasons um meanwhile running back targets i've gone up teams are essentially using their tight end or they're running back for what used to be sort of the tight-end routes. And the middle part of the tight-end position is dying. Tid-in 6-15 had their lowest-scoring output in each spot since 2008 last year. So in other words, it's feast or famine at the tight-end position.

There's three guys that are really, really good. There's a few others that, you know, could potentially elevate to that level. And then there's just everybody else. And so it makes drafting that position very sort of, strategy oriented. Are you going to take a guy early? You're going to take one late? Do you risk taking one in sort of the middle rounds? And so, yeah, it's just an interesting position, but overall it's dominated by three guys. Yeah, our colleague Kevin Clark wrote a great story a few years ago called basketball and grass and how this receiving game in football was becoming like basketball.

And with these three guys with Kittle, Kelsey, and Ertz, it's really much the positionlessness. We call them tight ends. They're not tight ends. Zach Ertz is the Eagles number one wide receiver. you know, Kittle and Kelsey, they're just amazing slot receivers. And I mean, Kittal's used all over the field. But those are just receivers in tight-end bodies. And the issue is that they're getting targeted like top-end wide receivers. And the rest of the position is their tight ends. Yeah.

So, so Hive, it's real quick. What is your strategy going into the season just like 30,000 feet? Are you taking the guy early? Are you going sort of for that middle range guys? Are you waiting for late? As a general rule, obviously leagues are specific. I am not into Kelsey for his price. I'm not into Ertz for his price.

I would like to grab Kittle if I can. And if I can't, then I'm probably going to wait because I also am not in love where certain guys are going. So I might have, I don't want to play streaming game if I can avoid it. But, oh, God, it's bleak. I'm in the exact same boat as you. I'm typically have been grabbing. And we'll talk about a few of these guys.

I'm grabbing the Jordan Thomas's, the Eifert's at the end of the draft, rather than kind of trying to roll the dice with some of those mid-round guys. If I can get Kittle, I'll go for it. But I thought the Eifert thing was a. joke. We're serious about that. I have a yeah, we're serious. Craig is I have a 1,000%

serious. Not a big. Wow. We'll get to that. All right. Well, let's just jump right in then. Our first category, who is your guy? Everybody has a guy at each position heading in the draft. D.K., who is your guy at tight end this year?

George Kettle, on the 49ers last year. Set a position record 1377 yards. He scored five touchdowns. He finished as the overall tight end two in standard and tight end three and PBR. One reason I do like him a lot this year is he finished well under his expected TD total last year based on the number of receptions he had. He scored just five touchdowns. It should have been much, much higher. I think he could go over double digits touchdowns this year.

His total yards and potentially the receptions might go down a little bit as they try and get, you know, like Pettis and Debo Samuel a little bit more involved, but he's still obviously the number one guy in that passing offense. last year he was number one in PFF grade, number one in PFF receiving grade. He led all tight ends, and this is again per pro football focus, he led all tight ends in yards per route run, yards after the catch, yards after the catch per reception, and mistackles force. So he's just, he's a monster over the middle of field. And I think getting Garoppolo back, helming that offense. Oh yeah, yeah, like he did all this with Bethard and Nick Mullins for almost the entire season.

So getting Garoppolo back, I think could make that offense a little bit better, a little bit more dynamic. And I think Kittle could kind of be the beneficiary of that. So I'm all in on Kittle this year. I think he's really, really good and he's only getting better. Nick Mullen's best rookie quarterback of 2018. That's a fact. Craig, I hear you have some inside info on George Kittles' offseason. So, you know, a big problem with NFL players in the fantasy world is injuries.

Tweaking hamstrings, a lot of ligament strains go out there that are the most bothersome. They're nagging to never go away. What helps with that? Flexibility exercises. Well, George Kittle did yoga all summer with his sister Emma in Nashville, Tennessee this offseason. Just saying, I could expect a lot less hamstring strains that are George Kittle this off season. Hard hitting analysis. I had not heard that, actually.

Yeah, that's what you can expect. Come with me. Full-time Craig coming through into the clutch right there. I mean, I'm also Kittal, but we just hit all that. So I'm just going to, we'll actually pay a little attention to defense. I love the Broncos defense this year. The Bears last year, they had Vic Fangio running their. defense. He's left. He's the head coach of Denver. I am a firm believer, especially when it

comes to defense that when you have an elite scheme, I take the coordinator over the talent. I mean, they lost, Fanjo doesn't have Khalil Mack, but he's got Von Miller. They added Bryce Callahan and Kareem Jackson, who are two of the best slot corners in the league. They still Chris Harris. Bradley Chubb, year two? Yeah, I think the Broncos will be like the Bears last year. So that's my guy for defense. Men, multiple guys. Going into a bet your life guy, if you had to bet your life on one guy in the tight end position to have an amazing awesome year. Who is it, DK? I mean, it's Travis Kelsey of the chiefs. He's still, you know, he's in the best offense in the NFL with one of the best quarterbacks, if not the best quarterback in the NFL. Andy Reed,

one of the best play callers. They do an amazing job of scheming him up. You know, in terms of the difference between this and the my guy category, I think Kelsey's price is just a little bit too high, but Kelsey is, I think, one of the highest floor guys, you know, in fantasy football. You know, last year he was second in targets at tight-down 150. Second-and-catches, 103. He's been durable. He's only missed two games in the last four seasons.

You know, the only guy who was ahead of been in those two categories was Ertz, but he's a good candidate to kind of fall off a little bit this year as they get Goddard more involved. And, you know, they've got other guys coming back in that offense. So there's just going to be, I think, more miles to feed in the Eagles offense. So I'm going with Kelsey. I think he's just kind of a can't-lose type of guy. So I'm looking at fantasy pros.

ADP and they do a consensus of experts around the internet and they compare the consensus rankings versus average draft position where people are taking them. The consensus ranking in Kelsey for PPR leagues is like eight overall, which is really high. But then the ADP is like 16 and obviously he's falling. So where in that range would you be comfortable-ish taking him? Or at least if you have to pick eight or 16, which would you rather have? I mean, if he's there at 16, I'm definitely comfortable taking him. But I've seen some drafts where he's going in the first round. So, yeah, like, if you can give me in the second round, I'm totally comfortable with that. And I think that's a solid value. But, yeah, like, the first round thing, that's where

it starts to get a little dicey. And you're really going to potentially have a huge opportunity to cause other positions. So I think that's just kind of where you have to try and figure it out. But if you can get them in the second round, go for it. I completely agree. I mean, I also agree about Kelsey. So I'm going to go with, once again, a defense for bet your life. I love the Ravens. I know that's kind of a wild choice because they lost Moseley and they lost a Darius Smith and they lost a lot of pass rushers. But I think the three smartest defensive coordinators in football today are Bill Belichick, Vic Fangio, and then Wink Martindale who runs the Ravens defense and they added Earl Thomas.

So, D.K., you're going to know this stat. In the 19 games, the Seahawks played in the last three years, the 19 games the Seahawks played without Earl Thomas. They gave up 31 touchdowns and had seven interceptions. And then in the 29 games they had with Earl Thomas, they gave up 30 passing touchdowns and had 30 interceptions. The interceptions thing is insane.

There's few players that can move the needle quite like that. Very, very few in the secondary. Earl Thomas is one of them. I'm willing to bet on them even though the broken leg. So moving on, bandwagon pick, D.K. So this is a guy we like, but you're worried there are too many people on the bandwagon,

so you're scared. Yeah, I mean, so just to be clear, I like O.J. Howard a lot. He's my pick for this one. I think he's really good, super dynamic, athletic, good player. I just get a little bit worried about how high he's risen. And there's a few reasons why. Number one, I think Evans and Chris Godwin could be, I mean,

Mike Evans is a superstar, fantasy superstar. There's no doubt he's going to be a huge part of that offense. I think Chris Godwin could be an ascending superstar as well. So you've got those two guys as a 1A, 1B, B in that offense. I think there's a chance Howard could kind of fall off into like a major drop off into like the third option. So there's there's always that fear a little bit. Right now, Howard is a titan four,

his ADP's 56 in standard leagues. Number two, I don't particularly trust James Winston. I think, you know, obviously he's a potential breakout type of star, but at the same time, he's just been prone to playing Hero Ball

his whole career. I just think there's a chance he could fall apart again this season and kind of fall into the doghouse or too many interceptions, all that. So there's that part of it. And then finally,

Bruce Ariens' offense hasn't historically featured tight end super heavily, especially when he looked at his numbers when he was in Arizona. This is pro football focus across Ariens, five year, 10 year in Arizona. His top tight end only average 50 targets and 348 yards per season. So I don't know.

That worries me. I think Howard's a very good player, but right now I'm not sure if the hype necessarily will match up with kind of like where he ends up going. I think he'll be a good, solid middle guy, but will he ascend into that top tier? I'm not sure. So the first episode we did when we were discussing quarterbacks, we talked about how with James Winston,

one of the best ways to find value in fantasy is looking at the aggregate ADP of skill players and then quarterbacks. And then if there's a big disparity, then either the skill players are overvalued or the quarterback is undervalued. And we see that this year with the Rams, people who don't believe in Goff,

but do believe in the skill players. And we also see it with the Bucks, people who believe in Howard and Evans Godwin, but not James. So I believe in James. And for starters, the guns are, Linger thing. I think him and Ariens are a perfect fit. But the one note I want to disagree with you on in Howard is that, yes, Ariens has not featured tight ends in his offenses. The tight ends and his offenses have sucked. He's had Rob Housler, Jim, this is the Arizona list of Arons. Don't

disparage Rob Housler. No offense if he's listening. Rob Housler, Jim Dre, John Carlson, Jermaine Gresham, Darren Fells, rookie Seals. What was he supposed to do with that group of people. So yeah, yeah, I think that's fair. That's fair. If he is not capable of making O.J. Howard featured in this offense, I don't know if they should have hired him. And the other thing that, you know, I do pause slightly on this take is that Howard is sort of a hybrid. He's like a tight, he's a tight end receiver. He's so athletic. So that could change things too. But if you're looking at the ADP of guys around OJ. Howard right now, and this is all about opportunity costs, you got guys like Kenyon Drake, Cooper Cup, Chris Godwin, Tyler,

Lockett, Calvin Ridley, James White, Tariq Cohen, Tevin Coleman, all those guys are in and around ADP 50-ish in standard leagues. And so I don't know, like, especially like Cup, Godwin, Lockett, maybe Ridley more and Kevin Coleman more than Howard at this point in that area. Like if I'm picking there, like I might go with those guys first.

That totally makes sense. And it's the same really logic that kind of applies with Hunter Henry, Evan Ingram, My rational rookie slash unproven player love. Yeah. One guy, self-explanatory, D.K., who's your irrational love this year? Okay, so we all know that rookie tight ends, generally speaking in fantasy, are really risky bets. This year, I'm kind of ignoring that.

I'm pretty excited about T.J. Hawkinson of the Lions. There's been training cap reports coming out. You've seen it from multiple B reporters that are watching these practices, that Hawkinson is just lighting it up. He's already got really good chemistry with Stafford, like making legit plays every day in training camp practices. I just look at it like they drafted this guy in the first round because I think Matt Patricia is looking for his version of Gronk.

Who isn't though? Aren't we all looking for Gronk? Yeah, I mean, but he's seen firsthand, you know, like what Gronk can do for the offense. And so, you know, I think that's the kind of player that they envision him being in terms of the mismatch creator, all that. Like, I don't think they drafted him. to be just a blocker. He's more than that. So he's a guy that I'm very interested in. He's

going to play a ton of snaps. I don't think he's going to play in front of Jesse. Or I don't think Jesse James is probably going to play in front of him. The other thing that I think is a factor is I'm a little bit more bullish on Matt Stafford than I think a lot of people are. I think he's a positive regression candidate this year. He finished below his career average last year in his touchdown rate. I think Beville is actually a pretty good offensive coordinator. I mean, yeah, he was run heavy. And I think that's what a lot of people are really scared about going into this year for fantasy purposes, but Beville also in Seattle was always very much about play action, deep passing. They did a lot of very smart route combos. He was big on efficiency. So I think

he could have the potential to make Stafford's numbers improve significantly this year, even if they are going to be running a lot. So those are kind of two of the reasons I'm looking at Hawkinson as a potential value late in drafts. Darrell Bevel loves passing at the goal line, if I remember correctly, DK's well. The only worry I see about that is the Jesse James factor and I'm just splitting so much time that it becomes not worth it. They spent $25 million on Jesse James. Mine is Vance McDonald and the Steelers. I love this. I love this. The Steelers are missing 168 targets just from Antonio Brown. Jesse James went from Steelers to the Lions. I think half of those missing targets don't stay in the past game because the Steelers led the league in passing but

were 31st in rushing. Mike Tomlin does not want to keep it that way. But even if half of those targets get redistributed, there's a huge opportunity and there's a real chance, Vance McDonald's not Dante Moncrie for James Washington is the person who leads the Steelers, sorry, after Juju Smith Schuster has the second most targets. Having said that he's never been healthy and I feel so silly doing that well if he's healthy

about a guy who has not really been healthy or consistently produced, I don't know why I love Vince McDonald's so much. I feel like he's the poor man's Travis Kelsey. I want him to be that. He probably won't be, but God damn it, I'll try. He's a very poor man's kiddle. He's what they wanted him to be. Like, when they drafted McDonald,

they wanted him to be Kittle. And I'm actually looking at the PFF receiving numbers right now. He was third last year among tight ends and yards after the catch for reception. So he's an athletic run guys over after the catch type of guy. You know, in the Pittsburgh offense, I think he's got a ton of potential. And I think you're right on that the, you know, the number of missing targets from that offense and he has a chance to kind of like rise and get a shitload of targeting that offense. So I like all of that.

I'm big on Vince McDonald this year. Shitload is an industry term. Yeah. Next we got the Brandon Stokely Award, which is my favorite. Dept shark guys on a really good offense that you like. You know, obviously the Rams offense is going to be, I think, elite again this year. So where do you find value in this offense? Obviously, the big three with Woods, cooks, and Cup are going to go much, much higher.

But I've been kind of looking at Gerald Everett late in drafts lately. There's been whispers kind of going around that the Rams. Rams are going to change up their offense a bit in 2019. I don't know what that means necessarily. Does it mean they're going to go more 12 personnel, which is get two tight ends on the field more? Are they going to get Everett more involved in the passing game? I don't know. But I think he's a very, very good athlete who, you know, given the chance to have more targets could definitely, you know, kind of take a big jump.

He was the PFF's fourth ranked tight end last year. He finished fifth among tight ends and yards after the catch. I saw a report from the athletic that said the Rams seem intent on getting him more involved. So all those kind of thing, these are just, this is dot connecting for late round picks. But I like Everett kind of as that, you know, dart throw, latent draft, who could potentially have a bigger year. Yeah, we've discussed this. I don't agree on the Rams being the same. I feel contrarian in that.

But I don't love golf's anticipation. I don't love that they lost Senator John Sullivan. It was like a coach on the field or Roger Saffold. I'm just not as convinced that they'll be. quite the same. I do like Gerald Everett, though, if he goes off on waivers in week one, then you can just snipe him. But now I have a real personal one for my Brandon Stokely Award, which is Falcons tight-in Austin Hooper slash childhood nemesis of our dear full-time Craig. Pine Valley Middle School alum. God, I love that. This one's really simple. Dirk Cutter is good

with tight ends. And I mean, Austin Hooper was the sixth tight end last year, and I think he'll be better this year. It's really simple. Dirk Cutter, I mean, he oversaw OJ. Howard being amazing for his couple of years. Cameron Brayt was a top red zone weapon and that happened under Dirk Cutter. He made Austin's Fairn Jenkins lead the bucks of four touchdowns in 2015. When he was the previous stint as the Falcons offensive coordinator, he revived Tony Gondon Gonzalez's career. He made Mercedes-Louis a pro bowler with 10 touchdowns. And then even if you go back to like the mid-1990s, he ran offenses at Arizona State,

Boise State, Boston College. They got their tight ends in. I just think Hooper is the best value maybe at the whole position. That's really interesting stuff, actually. Because I've kind of started going into the year a little bit down on Hooper, but that sort of does change my mind. I'm a little bit worried about the target distribution in that offense. I think Jones is going to be obviously a target hog. And then Ridley, I think, could make a jump,

which could eat into sort of what Hooper's market share was last year. But that's very interesting. The Dirk Cotter sort of variable is something to monitor because, yeah. Yeah, the issue with Hooper was he had a few weeks where he's great and many weeks where he sucked, which kind of skewed the average. But I think that there's so many reasons that he's a good value this year and the Falcons have a lot of touchdown regression coming. And we saw that at the end of last year, too.

The Ocho Cinco Award, the one good guy who's still being treated like he's good, but really not, whether age-related or scheme and could fall off the map. I want to emphasize what I'm about to say, scheme, scheme. scheme, scheme related. Nobody on the Bears' defense is worse. They're all great. Kaleel Mack is amazing. Everyone's excellent.

No shade to Akeem Hicks. I hope Robert Maze does not throttle me. The Bears defense is going to regress. I would not drop. They're not even the first defense I would take off of the board. I know that sounds nuts, but you can't be as dominant as they were without a great coach. It's like there's a reason.

Vic Fangio was the defensive coordinator. He was amazing and he's gone. And it was already going to be so hard for them to repeat it if they left. They led the league in takeaways, 27 interceptions. Mesa said probably not going to happen again. They had eight games with three or more turnovers. Not going to happen again. Yeah.

It's already so hard to repeat that with the same unit. You have a different coach. It's just going to be hard. So, sorry. Yeah. Isn't historically speaking it much, much more difficult to be consistent defensively year to year? Football outsiders research. And most football research is offense is so much more sticky and

predictable year-to-year-year. The defense is nothing like that. And takeaways, which is really the biggest indicator of how fantasy defense will do, is pretty goddamn random. So, sorry, Bears Fence. Well, no, it'll probably be fine. The Patrick Mahomes slash Christian McCaffrey Award, really, this, for this one's the George Kittle Award,

league winners. I'm going with Mark Andrews for the Ravens. I think he has the potential to be a huge breakout this year of all the guys that are kind of like threatening to kind of go into the, I don't know if he'd be tier one, but like threatened to go into tier two out of kind of nowhere. I think Mark Andrews is the guy. Last season, he was, he posted pretty rare numbers for a rookie tight end. He had 552 yards, which is the 22nd most by a rookie tight end in history.

And add that into the fact that the Ravens Pass catching core is a bunch of rookies and the random dudes that people don't know their names. He could be kind of like the go-to guy for Lamar Jackson. I think just based on the eye test for me, Jackson was very comfortable throwing the ball kind of up the middle of field, over the middle of field, up the seam. Andrews was very, very good, kind of a deep threat down the seam. He was fourth in the NFL at the tight end position behind Kittle, Kelsey, and Howard last year in yards per outrun, which is a sticky stat that PFF tracks.

It definitely is one of those ones that you have to pay attention to for fantasy. He was first in pass rating when targeted 129.9. at the tight end position. He was second at tight ends at yards per reception, 16.2. He's a truth of the scene. He had among tight ends with at least 50 targets. His A dot, averaged up the target of 11.1

was tops among the tight end position. Second in deep yards, 199. Kelsey was first. So all these stats as a rookie are just, to me, indicate that a breakout year is coming. If you especially factor in the idea that Lamar Jackson could take a jump as a passer. I think Andrews, for what he is right now,

I don't even know what is ADP is, but it's really, really low. I think he's a screaming potential steal for you. Just take him late in the round, and he has the potential to really pay off. I co-sign all of that, but are you comfortable with him being the only tight end on your roster? I'm comfortable taking him to assume that he'll be my guy,

and then I can stream, if not. Okay. That's kind of how I'm looking at him. Right now, I'm just looking at the ADP, he's tied in 19, 170 overall on average. So, I mean, there's a bunch, there's a couple guys you could take after like a Witten or Eiff, which we're going to talk about. But I think he, to me, has potential to be a true breakout player. Craig, George Kiel Award. Who's your league winner?

Mine is Hunter Henry, who has had an injury-riddled start to his career. But now finally, in an Antonio Gates-List offense in formerly San Diego, now Los Angeles. I think Hunter Henry really has the highest ceiling outside of the top three guys plus maybe Evan Ingram. Just from like a target perspective, from a target share perspective, there's Keenan Allen obviously, but he's very injury prone. He's had a lot of problems. He has hip injuries, which aren't great. Tyrol Williams is gone. And Melvin Gordon might not play football this year. So someone's getting the football this year. And Hunter Henry, in the last 16 games where he has received a target, has played extremely well. He had 76 catches, 686 yards, and seven touchdowns, which last year would have made him the title.

and six. Yeah. One, Melvin Gordon's playing football this year. Two, I noticed San Diego State alum, Craig, got the San Diego in there for the charges. And three, did Hunter Henry do yoga this year with his sister? Nah, unconfirmed. Still researching. I don't know how I feel about that pick.

Moving on. The Philip Lindsay Award, the out-of-now-now-s stud, a guy no one's talking about that could be a major fantasy player, a guy you're taking the last round of every draft. And I think, crucially, a guy that is going to get volume at a place where everyone likes, but no one's looking at this person. I guess you could kind of say that Mark Andrews falls into a somewhat similar category. Jordan Thomas of the Texans is much deeper cut in this category, I think. He's the projected starter at Tyrant for the Texans.

He's made a lot of noise kind of in training camp and this, you know, offseason OTAs and everything like that. I've seen Beatriders kind of talking about how well he's moving. He's like 65277. He's really big, but he's also, you know, versatile athletic. big guy. He caught four touchdowns on only 20 catches last year as a rookie, which kind of flew under the radar,

I feel like. But he could be kind of the red zone threat for the Houston offense, which could kind of help Deshawn Watson take a little bit of a jump in the red zone next year. So that said, obviously there's a lot of mouths to feeding that offense and there's a lot of really, really good receivers

in that offense. So I don't know if his volume is necessarily going to be really high, but for a guy who's going to be a starter and could be a big red zone threat for this team. No one is talking about Jordan Thomas. So I'm kind of, he's my deep cut sleeper for the tight-end position. My deep cut, Jalen Samuels, he's running back for the Steelers, but know your rules.

If he's a tight-end eligible, he was tight-end eligible last year. If he's tight-end eligible again, it's the backup for James Connor. If he was probably RB1 when Connor was out, he had 328 total yards in three games. That's nice. And if Connor's out, at least handcuff him. And if he becomes an RB1 and your tight-end spot, you'll win your league. So know your rules. My 16th pick in the draft slash Philip Lindsay Award for tight-end is Chris Herndon on the Jets.

He is suspended for the first four weeks, but looking at him from last year, he was the tight-in seven over his final 11 games in the season, not a ton of target competition in New York with maybe Robbie Anderson, Quincy, and Nuwa that's just about it. Got 70% of his targets and he comes back week six. So keep an eye on him. Maybe when you draft Jordan Reed and he gets hurt, you pick up Chris Huron. Yeah. I remember him getting on the same page with Donald a lot last year.

They have this connection or whatever that could definitely blossom. So he's another guy that's definitely sort of up there for me. All right. The Antonio Brown Memorial Post-Type Sleeper Award for someone that everyone loved and now everyone has given up on and is finally going to break out. D.K., post-type sleeper. Mine's Evan Ingram. I think people were really excited about him going into last year.

It didn't really pan out, got hurt. But this year he could eat up a ton of targets in that Giants offense. Sorry, Danny. Golden Tates looks like he's going to be suspended. Corey Coleman tore his ACL, String, Shepherd broke his finger. He couldn't miss part of the time in the early part of the year. Ingram could end up being the de facto number one for them.

And so, you know, with two quarterbacks, whether it's Eli or Daniel Jones, both of those guys aren't necessarily known to push the football down the field. He could kind of be that security blanket in the middle range that just like I said, eats up tons and tons of targets. He played in 11 games last year, finished as a tight end seven in a per game average points

scored in standard format. So that's kind of, I think, sort of his floor, because he wasn't even that great last year. I think he could improve on those numbers this year. And so, you know, he's that 4-4-speed type guy. He ranks 7th in Rout, yards per route run per pro football ball focus, finished fourth in yak. So he's just a good athlete, good after the catch.

I think he's going to be sort of their number one receiver, essentially, especially until Sterling Shepardt comes back. I think him's fine. It just sounds so downtrodden Mine's Ricky Seals Jones Everyone loved this guy last year Bad numbers but the offense was a train wreck So you can't really judge it

People say Kingsbury isn't in tight ends But he recruited Ricky Seals Jones to Texas A&M As a wide receiver Five star guy I have no idea if he's gonna play But monitor training camp And if he's getting snaps In those four receiver steps like boom

And they have Charles Clay there But I think he might play fullback So I don't know check his snaps All right Can we get like a drum roll Or like there's gonna be something Yeah. So this category.

Like fighter jets? Wait Craig, you stretched out? I'm stretched. You stretched? Although this is the Antonio Brown Award, I'm just going to call it the Hear Me the F out category. All right.

Tyler I've heard on the Bengals. Yeah. He's 28 years old. Yes, he's been injured his entire career, but hear me out. We all remember when he had the 13 TDs and 13 games in 2015. Right? Fantastic. He's undeniably talented.

He's got 21 touchdowns and 32 games. No AJ Green for six to eight weeks. And now, what I really wanted to shed some light on is injuries in the injury history. The Tyler Iford injuries of the past are not the ones that are kind of reoccurring. He only has one concussion. Jordan Reed has six. He's never strained a hammy, a quad, a hip, or anything like that.

He's never torn a ligament in his knees. He's never had a non-contact injury. He just breaks stuff. People tackle him and things break. It's unlucky. He's playing on a one-year prove-it deal. Oh, man. Another one.

Yeah, he's on his last prove-a-deal. This is his last time. and he's been spending a lot of time in the F-tide-in spot, which would allow him to focus on a lot of playmaking. I don't know who they're throwing a ball in the Red Zone. That's not him this year. And they drafted Tide-end Drew Sample to focus on blocking. Yeah.

Let Ifer do some route-running studies a little bit more. I'm just saying. Craig, you're an excellent salesman. I already had bought what you're selling. I can't believe this. You guys are crazy. He said the F-tight-end spot. I just think I've heard him like, yeah, F-tight-ends.

Like, dude, here's like, I've heard fantasy. Like fantasy analysis, you've got to like pick your numbers and you can be very, I've never heard anyone list every injury someone has not had. He literally said, He just catches stuff. He catches the past and then people break stuff. What a sales pitch. Was it that you exactly said?

People just break shit. Break shit when it falls down. He's unlucky. That's all I'm saying. Well, yeah, so was everyone who owns him. I mean, he's a dart throw. He's a really high upside dart throw. And if you're ever bored, check out.

The dart might break a leg. Check out sports injury predictor.com. It's a really cool website. All right, let's move on before we get trouble. The Leonard Fournette Award, biggest bust. Guys, in the top of the draft, you're worried about will drop massively. I'm not worried enough not to draft Zach Ertz on the Eagles. I think if anyone falls out of that elite three of Kittle, Kelsey, and Ertz, it's going to be Ertz.

His ADP is pretty close to Kittl. I need at least a round, maybe a round and a half before I really want to be getting Earts near Kittle. His target share, I think, was not quite as intentional as the 49ers with Kelsey, the 49s with Kittal and the Chiefs with Ertz. Oh my God, I'm getting the names on. Who's Travis Kelsey's on the Chiefs last time I'm a check? Kittles on the Niners.

Yes. I think the Eagles turned Ertz with the confluence of Alshon Jeffrey was hurt and missed a lot of practice. And then Aguilar was gross. And then they ended up having to get Golden Tate, but he was new. And then he basically was their number one wide receiver. And they didn't have other options. and he stayed that.

I think that if he even drops two or three targets a game, that will just drop him to, like, the middle tier, and it just won't be the same. There's a lot of hype for Deshaun Jackson right now. Exactly. Agalore's still there. Alshan Jeffrey's still there. They got J.J.R. Sega White's side.

I mean, they've got that. They're so stacked. It's crazy. Plus, do you get Goddard involved in the passing game, which I think they want to. I mean, he was a second rounder last year. And to be clear, because there's a lot of Eagles Finster to cut my throat.

He's the same player. I just don't think he'll have the same role. And speaking of what? Speaking of which, Craig. Yeah, so Eric Ebron is my Leonard-Fornett Award. I mean, he had 13 touchdowns last season, but he's currently going as the tight-end seven, according to fantasy pros, which is kind of insane.

Doyle, Jack Doyle is back healthy this year. He only played six games last season. But when both players were active, Doyle out snapped Ebron 331 to 164 and out-targeted him 33 to 22. Despite all the touchdowns, Ebron's six targets and signed the 10-yard line were the 46th in the NFL.

So I'm just with Doyle back, Funchis is added. It just seems very unlikely he's going to repeat that type of touchdown upside. Yeah. I'm curious if particularly Funchis is going to eat into his kind of role. Like as an over the middle size guy, like if they play Funchus in the slot, yeah. I mean, that's something to monitor during training camera preseason and stuff like if they play Funcice outside or in the slot or whatever. But yeah, I think he could, Funcius could kind of play the E-run role as the big slot weapon or whatever for that. in the red zone. You could almost say

Devin is a fun chess piece. So moving on. I mean, one could say that, yes. Moving on, the Rex Burkhead Award. Time to give up the dream. We're going to change this to the Tyler Eifert Award. Right now, the Tyler Eifert Award. D.K., who's your Tyler Eifert Award winner?

So obviously I agree with everything Craig said, but I'm tired of freaking drinking that Kool-Lade, so that's why I put Eifert in this. I mean, like, I see Eifert as he could either have 12 touchdowns or playing two games. there is no middle ground with this guy. I'm just tired of kind of getting in on that that hype train. So that's why,

even though I completely agree with everything Craig said. You're missing out. Mine is Jordan Reed, as is Danny Hype. It says six concussions, tons of injuries. Hasn't really had the career. I think people assumed he has had. He's only had one year with more than 66 catches, 686 yards and six touchdowns,

which was like Hunter Henry's floor of the last 16 games. He's got an unproven rookie quarterback. I just don't think this is the only. Yeah, could be struggling. Yeah. Give it up. To quote one shining podcast, Jordan Reed, good guy. Moving on to tears.

We're going to just run through these. For those of you drafting, this is kind of how we envision the different tiers of the position, kind of like how we approach, like, when we're looking at, like, when to take these guys. A valuable exercise if you have time before your draft. And these are 100% consensus. And there's absolutely no rancor behind the scenes of whether these are actually. and reflective of our 100% consensus. All right. Tier 1, Travis Kelsey, Zach Ertz, George Kittle.

No problems there. Tier 2. We have O.J. Howard on the Bucks. Evan Engram on the Giants. Hunter Henry on the Chargers. Those are all pretty consensus right there. Here's where it gets a little more interesting. Yeah, Tier 3 is, yeah.

Eric Ebron on the Colts, Vance McDonald on the Steelers, David and Joker on the Browns, Jared Cook on the Saints, Austin Hooper and the Falcons. I believe I dragged Austin Hooper by the heels from Tier 4 to Tier 3. all by my lonesome. Tier four, we got Jordan Reed on Washington, Jimmy Graham on Green Bay, Jack Doyle on the Colts,

Greg Olson on Carolina, Mark Andrews on the Ravens, D.K. Yeah, that was partly my doing. I think he deserves to be up there. There you go. Delaney Walker on the Titans and then rounded out by Trey Burton on the Bears,

who either a post-type sleeper or bust depending on you see Trey Burton. And then Tier 5, rounding it out. These are guys just, we wouldn't draft, but we would pick up. Late round dart throws. Or just we would pick up if they did well in week one or two.

Chris Herndon on the Jets. Well, he won't do well in week one or two. Kyle Rudolph and the Vikings. T.J. Hawkinson and the Lions. Noah Phant on the Broncos. Ian Thomas on the Panthers. Darren on the Raiders. Which he could go much higher, by the way.

But that's neither here nor there. Yeah, not a lot of Tyrell Williams believers. Will Disley on the Seahawks, Gerald Everett on the Rams, Chaboy, D.K. Mike Gisicki on the Dolphins, who is probably the least talked about, Uber athletic tight end who, I mean, that team sucks, but who knows.

Josh Oliver on the Jaguars, Jordan Thomas on Texans, and then Dawson Knox in the bill of suit. Can I be 100% honest with you guys? I don't have a fucking clue who Dawson Knox is. We should have a segment every week where one of us just points out a player on a team. We go, who? I believe in transparency. I don't know who the hell Dawson knocks. Which is why you don't know him.

He's a rookie who didn't catch many passes in college either. Well, that's a good omen. You know who the person we admitted, we had not. no idea who they were last year. Freddy Kitchens. Our boy, that was the, who's this guy? So, God, do we go through the kicker tiers? I think we have nine here.

I don't even think we did 10. Tier one, Greg Zerlion and Justin Tucker, which actually, yeah, that's, that's, yeah. Tier two, we got Harrison Butker, Will Lutz, Stephen Gaskowski. Gaskowski sucks, by the way. I'm not even going to try. He's missed a kick in each of the Patriots last game of this playoffs in the last five years. I, Kaimi Fairburn on the Texans. Did I get that right?

Just Fairbarns? We're moving on. Robbie Gold on the Niners, who almost did the holdout, gold out. Adam Vinutarian, the Colts, and Mason Crosby on the Packers. Pass that, who cares? Yeah. Whatever, it's kickers. Defense is this one.

Tier one, Bears and Rams. I'm going to just quietly grumble. Tier two, Jaguars, Chargers, and Vikings. Tier three, we've got, these are filling out the, we got Browns, Broncos, Ravens, and Texans. Saints and Eagles, and we're comfortable with all those

as a starting defense and the rest are probably streamers. Yeah. Let's just not spend any more time on those two categories. We're on Tyler Eifert. That's all the time

we got in the Dynasty Football Podcast. Thanks for listening, everyone.