The Ringer NFL Show - Which Old Guys Will Fall Off a Cliff in 2020 | The Dantasy Football Podcast

Episode Date: May 19, 2020

As we prepare for the upcoming season, we must ask ourselves the age-old question of how to feel about the players seemingly entering the twilight of their careers. We highlight the most popular aging players and decide if they are trusted, rusted, or dusted. Hosts: Danny Heifetz and Craig Horlbeck Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, it's Liz Kelly and welcome to the Ringer Podcast Network. The Ringer is launching a new podcast from the guys who brought you a Cespitus family barbecue called Baseball Barbecue. Hosted by Jake Mintz and Jordan Schusterman, they're bringing you the good, the bad, and the utterly bizarre corners of the baseball world and everything that makes it special. Throughout the off season, they'll dive into the rabbit hole on some of their favorite fascinations, from the home run derby to baseball brawls and much more. Once the season returns, they'll break down the latest MLB news and development. You can subscribe to baseball barbecue on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to the Danesie football podcast on the Ringer NFL show, on the Ringer podcast network. My name is Danny Hyfidson.

I'm joined as always by my co-host and my co-danny, the hero we need and the analyst we deserve the Dark Knight himself. Danny Kelly! How are you doing, D.K. DK's on vacation. What? It's just me, dude. It's Craig. It's just the two of us? I don't know why it's called the Danessy pot anymore.

There's only one Dan. Danny Kelly is on vacation, a well-deserved one. And like by vacation is an interesting word during this time because like I don't think he flew to Barbados. I think he's just. No? Well, that's the thing is do we use the word staycation unironically? Interesting. Because I just had a vacation where I stayed at home.

But if I called it a staycation. It implies it was a choice? Yeah. Yeah, that's a good point. Like there's, there was no agency in my decision to stay for my vacation. That's why I think it's still vacation because it is. Yeah. It's just, it's implied that I went nowhere and no one asks what I did because everyone

knows. So he's probably just like watching Bob's Burgers with Calvin or something, you know? Yeah. The child. Yeah. The man child. All right. Well, D.K., he's probably having a great time and he's probably not listening to this episode.

So we're free. We can do whatever we want, right? I know. We have free reign. This is, this is scary, really. Well, since D.K.'s not here. you want to just make fun of old people so he won't get offended?

Yeah, yeah, yeah. A couple of guys in their 20s making fun of guys in their 30s. That would be great. All right. Okay, so this is the old geezers episode because if there is one timeless fantasy football question, it's should I draft this old guy?

Yeah, when's the drop-off? You know, when is the year? This was the Marshawn Lynch conundrum every single year for the last five years of his career. No one knew when it was going to happen and then some guy would draft him and you'd be like,

good luck with that dude and then he had 1,200 yards and nine touchdowns. And you were like, well, are we only going to make fun of old 30s guys from Seattle? Is that the thing between Marshall and D.K.K. I know. Well, I won't make fun of Pete Carroll co-hosts of Flying Coach. That's for sure. Love that guy. Yeah, you're in now with Pete Carroll.

Yeah, me and Pete are tight. Okay. Old geezers, we're going to look at all the old people who we realized we disagreed on and just had differing thoughts and just might be confusing for the upcoming season. And we're going to put them into three categories. trusted, rusted, and dusted. Yes. And just to clarify, rusted means like, I mean, you could still use a rusty bike, but if they're dusted, they're out of the picture.

I was on my week off. I fixed my mother's garden up. And I use some rusty nails. It's not ideal. But they still work. They get the job done. It's just a little oxidation, you know. Exactly. So we're going to roll through. Let's just see who's the rusty nails. Dusty nail. You don't want a dusty nail. And then there are some trusty nails. Jeez.

Okay. We're rusty ourselves. Quarterbacks. Tom Brady. He's on the Buccaneers. I don't know if you heard of it. I heard that. I'm going to be honest.

I briefly wanted to not list him in this episode because I'm so tired and sick of hearing about Tom Brady. And it's May. And I have no idea how we're going to go the remainder of the year talking about this guy every day. And mark my words, we will eventually have an episode. where we don't say the words Tom Brady. Yeah, I think the conversation will eventually shift to all the players around him, you know.

Eventually, it's going to be like Godwin Evans, Cronk, O.J. Howard, the running back. I'm excited to return to the days when I did not think about Tampa Bay. But until then, I actually think Tom Brady is one of the more intriguing fantasy choices ever, just solely because of this. He's right now he's being drafted. He's ranked like the 10th among quarterbacks. he's like 88th overall or whatever. I actually think he's unique in that he has weird amount of trade value. If you know your league right,

and even if put aside how you think he's going to play this year, if you know your league, I have a couple leagues where almost half of the people are from Massachusetts. And I just know a couple people are going to willing to overpay for Tom Brady, if you have him. And he's playing well in September. The buck's first two games are against the Saints and the Panthers. Panthers are going to have an awful defense this year.

If Tom Brady through two weeks has more points than Patrick Mahomes, I think you could flip him to someone else. Other than that, I don't want him on my team. He's arguably rusted because he's 43, just by, you know, but, I mean, physically he's not rusted. He looks fantastic. But what is, is the jaw lines, right? It's the character.

Shout out to Ritchie Bozeg. It's the character development. It's also just like the amount of unnatural work done to his face. That's why I think he looks so great. There's that timeline from when he's 20 to 40. And he just, like, his, like, face shape, like, completely morphs. Remember that episode of SpongeBob where Squidward gets, like, the really handsome jaw? Oh, yeah. Oh, wow.

That's what Tom Brady is. You say that TV is, like, Squillium? Or is it, like, how LeBron got his hairline fixed to go on that high school graduation the other night? I'd love to get those two on a pod and they only just talk about, like, beauty. Hair plugs? Wouldn't that be cool? Okay. We're already off the rails.

It's not here. Anyway, Tom Brady breaks this because he transcends aging. Yeah, kind of. It's like he's all three at the same time. I think the is. issue in all seriousness, I do think the issue is that Tom Brady will never be properly valued because people who play fantasy football,

someone in your league just wants to own Tom Brady. I respect that kind of play. But he's going, like you're not going to get Tom Brady falling to you more often than not. Well, let's see where he's going here. So I just pulled up Fantasy Pro's 80s as 80s. He's ranked overall 88th. I don't trust average draft position this time of year because who the hell's mock drafting

in May? I don't think they have a large data set to work with. I generally try to work with fantasy pros rankings just they aggregate all, like, fantasy experts ranking, so you kind of get an average of everywhere. And I mean, Brady was the quarterback 12 last year with the guys he had. Like, you know, the other quarterbacks in the league are, is everybody going to basically, like, play so well? There's going to be too many good quarterbacks that Brady will fall, or is he going to be

better than the quarterback 12? My thinking is that he's just going to be drafted higher than his ranking. Like, it doesn't matter your league. Unless people specifically are in a league of people who hate Patriots and hate Tom Brady, you know, right now Josh Allen is ranked above Tom Brady. I really dubious that Josh Allen's going to be. taken ahead of Tom Brady in a lot of leagues because some people just want Tom Brady and that's where we have to kind of remove like this fantasy expertise and like in a league of

10 or 12 people someone just wants Tom Brady on their team and so I think it's really hard to get him at a value in any league. He and that's why he's so different than every other player. The interesting guy next is Big Ben who's back. His elbow is fixed. Hopefully he shaved his beard. Well, he shaved his beard because his elbow is fixed. Yeah. He threw his first pass to Jujo and then he shaved his beard. Have you ever so have. Have you ever? So have. you ever seen the epic mill time videos on youtube this guy named harley morinstein is a youtube celebrity and he hasn't shaved his beard in like five years and that was i genuinely thought why is he why is this youtube celebrity throwing to jujew smith schuster and i was like oh my god that's ben rothusberger

because he looks like tom hanks and castaway in this video the steeler's tweeted and i was like why the hell is he looked like a caveman and he just didn't shave his beard while he couldn't throw yeah well so now he shaved so the whole thing is oh he can throw again uh i'm dude because Ben is 38, does not have Antonio Brown anymore. The Steelers' offense, I'm just, I mean, other than Juju-Smiths, I don't trust any of those options. And I'm just so dubious that the Ben Rothesburg of 2018, when he actually led the league in passing in 2018, which is crazy to think about it.

He was the quarterback two in 2018. And then last year played two games. So between those, do you want him as your backup quarterback high upside? You're the Steelers fan here. Yeah, sure. I'd have him as a backup. But I think the only person you want in the Steelers' offense this year, is Juju, who I think is going to get

a bazzillion targets. But I don't know, it's the injury thing with Ben. I mean, Ben's, he's too old now to be doing Ben Rautisberger things anymore. It's a young man's game, and he's not going to do it. Ben does not play 16 games this year. Ben has always been an old Geyser. That's the thing. But that's why it worked is you can have that playing style when you're

young, because it works. It's kind of like this cool fusion thing. He used to do this runaround thing, and he'd like sprained an ankle and then he'd get better in the second half. That's not going to happen anymore. He's just going to be an old guy with a sprained ankle. Yeah, I mean, their defense is really good, and I think that they're just going to go back to being the Steelers, and they're going to try to run the ball and play good defense and win 17 to 13 every game,

and I just don't see them leading the league in pass attempts like they did in 2018. I would much rather be wrong, and Ben Rathusberger leads the league in pass attempts at 38 after elbow surgery with Juju Smith-Schuster and James Washington, then I would be having him on my team and he just gets hurt again. Also, they were talking about his like off-season training regimen. What off-season training regimen? Exactly. It sounds the opposite of rigorous. It sounds like what you did on your vacation last week. Yeah, the TB12. The TB12 is very different than the RB8 or the BR8, whatever his initials are. It's very different training regiments.

I would say he's dusted. Yeah, I think he's dusted. I think he's dusted. Stay away from Ben. Next up, Drew Breeze. On the Saints. Breeze is 41 years old. And I just want to shout out, the only quarterback who has had more than 2,000 passing yards in his season at 41 or older is Tom. So there's not really a precedent for what Drew Brees is trying to do here. Also, I just, I don't have many rules, hard rules and fantasy, but if someone has agreed to a post-career broadcasting deal while they're a player, I don't know if I want them on my team. Well, yeah, it's kind of the opposite of like, it's your contract year. Yeah, it is the opposite of a contract year. It's a golden parachute year. It's the least motivated you could possibly be. It's so true. Also, Brees in the last three years has either

underperformed or hit the exact projection he had. In 2019, his ADP was the QB6, and he finished his 24. Year before that, he was the sixth taken, and he was the six overall. Year before that, he was the third taken and the ninth overall. So it's like Breeze is exactly like blowing people's expectations every year, and he's a year older. The offense is the same. I just don't know. He's going as the QB 13 right now. I mean, I guess they have Emmanuel Sanders. Well, the personnel in the offense is the same, but I think the key point is that we just get hung up on Breeze being the passing yards leader, and we think about how for 10, 11 years the Saints were the insane passing machine.

And they really changed it in the last three. Like, the Saints are so different ever hit since they hit that 2017 draft class. They got Marshall and Latimore. They got Ryan Ramzik. And they can block. They got Camaro so they can run and they can play defense.

And for the first like 10 years, Breeze was there. Their defense was the worst in the entire league, like every year. And so they had a pass atone because they were in shootouts. So this is where they were in past. Since Breeze came to New Orleans in 2006.

This is where the Saints ranked in pass attempts. fifth, first, first, 15th, second, second, second, fourth, second, second, fourth, second, second, second, and then they got that 2017 draft class, started playing defense and could run the ball, and now they've been 19th and 23rd

in 17 and 18. And so this isn't, they're not relying on Drew Breeze to throw the ball like they used to. So this isn't the passing shoot. This is, believe it or not, this is kind of like a running more, or running more oriented team that plays defense than we think. So, it's just

It's hard to understand that because of Drew Breeze's career. I mean, and they're keeping him safe. You know, you keep the Ferrari in the garage until you need to really take it out on the freeway. It's like you don't need to have him have the second most pass. Brandon Cooks, Brandon Cooks asked for a trade essentially because Drew Breeze couldn't reach him on deep passes three years ago. So I'm out on. Drew Breeze is the quarterback eighth in fantasy, right? He's the eighth ranked quarterback in fantasy pros.

He's going like 78th overall. I would rather wait. So it's not dusted. but he will be an announcer next year. He's rusted. He's rusted. A lot of rust. All right.

Next up, Philip Rivers, on the Indianapolis cults. D.K.'s going to be pissed. I'm saying this when he's not here, but whatever. I hated this at first, and the more I think about it, the more I kind of like it because the cults have a really good offensive line, and Rivers hasn't had a good one in six years. And the more I think about that, the more I'm intrigued. Okay.

And he's just free. He's basically going on, he's basically projected to go undrafted, which I think is fascinating, that Philip Rivers could have a really good week or two in the first two weeks and just be on waivers. I think that's fascinating. Do you want him as your last pick? No.

Yeah, me neither. Okay, let's move on. Dusted. I'm thinking like the GTA, you know when you die and granite the thawto and it's like wasted? I'm just like, dust. All right. Running backs, this is where it's,

that's an important caveat here. The quarterbacks are all in their late 30s. But as we all know, time is relative. It's a man-made construct, or it's not a fixed construct, rather. Age, fruit flies are like 24 hours, live, die, have children, have a family, die. You know, it's a life cycle. These running backs are not in their late 30s. No.

But these are old men. I'm sorry. Todd Gurley turns 26 in August. And yet, kind of an old gaiser, right? Yeah, it's just like the way that you look at that when you're drafting on draft day and you look at the name of the player, if you kind of just kind of just kind of just feel like, ugh, then they fall into this category and like, we'll get to Levy on Bell later. He's right there.

What if this is the year he falls off completely is on your mind? You count as an old guy. 100%. Lashon McCoy was there like two years ago. You'd be like, man, I don't know anymore. To be clear, Gurley's on the Falcons now. I love that. I'm a huge fan of when guys who were really good in college come back to the state.

Obviously, Gurley was great at Georgia. Love him being back in the Falcons. Love this for real life football. I honestly don't know how I feel about this for fantasy purposes, because. I just feel like it's more of a tease than anything. Todd Gurley being great again on the Falcons just seems too good to be true. But the reality is that the Gurley on the Rams is never coming back just because he played 85, 87% of the Rams snaps when he was on that team, which is a lot.

I mean, I think the only person who broke that last year was being McCaffrey and maybe Seacuan when he was on the field. That's not going to happen. Dirk Cutter, who's the offensive coordinator, told reporters that he has a number of carries in mind for Gurley this season, but he doesn't want to say it because, quote, You guys will bring it up every week. So what do we think that is? Like 2.10?

I'm glad you ask how many carries how Gourley will get because Jason Butt at the athletic figured it out, maybe. Because Gurley averaged 17 touches per game with the Rams. And Devante Freeman averaged 17 touches per game with the Falcons. And they're probably just going to give him that. So not really a mystery. They're just going to give him Devante Freeman's workload that they've been giving him for like seven years.

Yeah. The boring thing about the girly conversation is I think he's not going to be dusted and he's not going to be trusted, I think he'll just be fine. The one thing in Gurley's favor is the depth chart for the Falcons is Brian Hill, Edo Smith, and Quadra Allison. I have not afraid of any of those men taking over Ty Groves. He's going to get all the goal on carries. I have a feeling like he could literally replicate last year exactly. And maybe he'll be more involved in the passing game even. So Gurley's 16th running back. He's going on average, like he's ranked on fantasy

pros around 32nd overall. 16th running back, yeah. If you have to pick Rust it or dusted, which is it. It's rusted, right? It's rusted. Also, this is what I've been saying. We've been talking about tendinitis. I said this on last week's episode with D.K. When were we talking about tendonitis? With D.K. Last, it was just the two of us. I missed that. You were on staycation. Yeah. You made yourself a homemade Pinoa collada and was watching Friends reruns. Yeah. I was. Can we get an update on his knee? Like, it was a year and a half ago now or more that that we were like, he's got Tenderonitis. Dirk Cutter wants the same. So Dirk Cutter in that he said, we don't know how Todd Gurley's knee is

and he kind of just admitted like they don't know how much is it degenerate over time? I want to know. Like is it only a 5% drop off in the last two years? If so, I'm going to feel pretty good. So I am not a scientist. The most information we've gotten on this just remains like last summer when his trainer said that...

You would need to be a doctor, I think, but scientists might help could help too. Training is important. Sure. The point is that even Dirk Cutter kind of admitted that he doesn't know and that they'll find out. And I think that Gurley is one of those very important situations where in training camp, when we actually see these guys all get together and we see how the carries break down and

who's getting reps at the first team, there's a big difference in my mind if Todd Gurley's getting all the first team reps or if Todd Gurley and Brian Hill are splitting the first team reps. How often that's happened is very important to me, especially because with the truncated amount of time they have to prep for the season, those reps will be much more carefully distributed by coaches. And we're going to see a much more intentionality of who they're giving those reps to with what they're planning. And if Todd Grohl is getting all the first team reps, that's really I'll be very intrigued by that. How does Cutter not know what the status of his knee is before

signing him? I mean, they're just saying, again, they probably have a better idea than they're letting on. It's a general rule. Speaking, well, except the Jets. Next up, Levi-on-Bell. This is the most interesting one, I think, of the episode. And I like what you've written down. Go on your spill, because I believe in it. So I want to start off with a weird defense of Leveon Bell because he got so reamed over the coals last year for signing and the whole holdout. I have many thoughts on that we don't have to go into.

But Levyon Bell played well last year. Don't look at the numbers because none of them indicate that. But if you watched him play, I think he had a lot of spring in his step. He was agile, who made people miss the rust that could have been there after having a year off of football, I thought surprisingly went away very quickly.

And if you, he just made people miss. I was very impressed how he played behind probably the worst offensive line that was not the dolphins who weren't really trying. And also he was actually pretty surprisingly solid as a fantasy player. He had no weeks where he was the top scoring running back, but 10 of the first 11 weeks he had,

he was worth starting. So if you started him for the first 11 weeks of the year, 10 of those times it was the right decision. But the problem is, is the Jets were horrible. Like they were 27th and passing touchdowns. They were 31st in rushing touchdowns. The quarterback got mono,

which I don't know what's more embarrassing, that happening in the NFL or the starting quarterback at USC, never got mono at USC. Like, that's stuff. But, and then Trevor Simeon happened, and then Luke Falk happened, and Luke Falk, it's just a disaster for the Jets.

So on one hand, the Jets offense kind of has to score more touchdowns in 2020. J.G. Zachary's in his podcast made this point that it would be really shocking if the Jets don't have a better offense this year. But having said that, I'm so dubious about their offensive line because the line last year was one of the key problems

other than the quarterback. It wasn't just Darnold having Mono coming back. It was their line was they had five, I mean, bad linemen, frankly. And then they kept swapping out between injuries and Adam Gase just wanting different players. He was putting the guard to tackle and doing all these crazy things

and switching positions. So the Jets have gone out and replaced four of their five starting lineman from last year. And they might, might make it five of five by the time, depending on who wins certain battles that guard and training camp. But they are the only line in the, I believe, well, sorry, they have no Pro Bowl players on their offensive line.

And before they drafted Mackay Beckton in the first round, they were the only line in the league that didn't have a first or a second rounder on the line. I am really dubious that the line will be good in 2020 because, like, we always talk about how quarterbacks and receivers need chemistry and timing to get right. So do offensive lines. And I am so hesitant to draft a running back who might have five linemen who haven't really played together until like July 31st. So you kind of switched your opinion there. So what are you, where are you going? I think that Levi-on Bell is a trust. But I think the situation he's in is about as bad as possible because there's not a ton of, I mean, other than the volume,

like they're going to give him the carries, but there's not a lot of organizational confidence in him. Again, the GM who signed him is Joe Douglas is not, sorry, Mike McCagden signed him, got fired two months later. So this is not the front office who brought Levi-on-Bell in.

I believe reports saying Adam Gase doesn't love Levi-on-Bel. So he doesn't have as much security as you would hope for a guy getting paid that much. And then I also think the line is terrible. What do you think, though? How do you also feel about there's no one else on the Jets that is a viable skill player so every defense that the Jets play are going to focus on Leveon Bell solely,

which I imagine they did last year, and that's why he averaged 3.2 yards of carry. So the Jets didn't do anything to improve their passing game, unless you think Denzel Mims and Josh Doxon are going to do anything. But I am worried about that, that he'll just have the same year again for all of the reasons you just said. I think that the consistency, I think that he's, I think the consistency is worth mentioning,

because if he had 10 of 11 starts, the first 10 of 11 starts, last year as a bankable fantasy asset. I do think that he's going to go up from there. Now, last year, that was disappointing because people took him in the first round or very early in the second. This year, I mean, where's he rank?

He's ranked on Fantasy Pro's like 20th as the 20th running back. Overall, it's 41. If you can get him in like the fourth round and he's startable every week, that's pretty good. That's solid. Yeah, he might be like the latest guy

you can get to receive all those carry. Like he might be the last guy you can see you get almost 300 touches. That's where I really, that's where I kind of the more I think about him, the more I'm actually, excited's the wrong word. I surprisingly trust him much more than I would

think for somebody who's playing for the New York Jets. So let's do a name game. I mean, like to be honest, I'm baffled that Jonathan Taylor's is one spot ahead of him. That's my point. That's exactly my point. And I guess what I'm really getting at here is there's a larger philosophy I'm kind of coming from for this specific season, which is we always talk about volume is king.

This year for me, continuity is king. Literally have you practiced before. You know, Jonathan Taylor, hasn't met Jacoby Preset yet, or sorry, Philip Rivers yet, to my knowledge. You know what I mean? And every time this season, if you have a choice between Jonathan Taylor, someone who is a rookie, hasn't been a pro yet, is not going to meet these people until August and see his whole team together, or Levyon Bell, who's been with the team, practiced as a veteran, knows how to be in the NFL. I'm taking the veteran who's been on the team

every time if it's a toss-up. Do you feel the same way about new coaches? Like, if there's a new coach or a new offensive coordinator, do you think that you're going to value the players on that team less because it's a new offense? It's a really good question, and I think it depends because, for example, Mike McCarthy's the new coach in Dallas, but they kept Kellynne Moore, who was the offensive coordinator last year. That's a weird kind of hybrid. You don't really see that. Joe Judge on the Giants, I mean, they got rid of Pat Schumer, who was the offensive coordinator, they're bringing Jason Garrett. So on one hand, Jason Garrett, for better or worse, is an experienced

head coach, but that's a new system. They have to teach people a new system. That is a duck because Daniel Jones now has to learn new stuff to do. That is a problem for me, but in terms of ranking it, I think that new quarterbacks, I am really stupid, dubious of this year. Quarterbacks who change teams is number one, and by extension receivers who haven't played with that quarterback, especially if the majority of receivers haven't played with them. Yeah. And then offensive lines is number two. If the majority of the offensive line is different than last year, that's a huge red flag for me because underratedly blocking is really about the five of them working together and then coaching staffs, obviously,

if it's a new system, that's a disaster because here's the thing, football's so complicated, but at some point none of this is complicated. Everyone listening right now, are you as efficient as you were working remotely as you were in my office? Is it harder to communicate or do projects take longer? Football's the same thing. It's, yeah,

oh, they're doing all this remote virtual learning. Guess what? It's not as valuable as being in the room with the classroom. It's not as valuable as being on the field. And athletes largely are not, it's much more valuable to learn doing it. It's much more valuable to learn the timing your quarterback needs running routes in shorts in May than doing it over your Zoom.

It's just easier to learn that way. So I'm really skeptical of new stuff. So I mean, Levy on Bell, I weirdly, I kind of like the security of just they're going to give them a lot of work over someone like Jonathan Taylor where I don't know what his role is going to be. Yeah, it's almost by default. Levy on Bell is kind of the quintessential. post-type sleeper this year. And is a guy who a lot of people who aren't as prepared as you are

in your fantasy draft are going to look at and go, eh, Jets, God, he was terrible last year, pass. I'm going to get, I don't know, Chris Carson. There's one really important caveat to everything I just said about continuity. And it's running back. And that's the perfect person for this is David Johnson, the Texans. Quarterback, offensive line, receiver, coach is really important. David, like running back, it's the least important position to have continuity. And David Johnson in the Texans, I'm shocked how intrigued I am. He's 28.

He feels both older and younger than that. He lost almost entire 2017 season to his wrist injury. He had back and ankle injuries last year. I mean, we have strong thoughts on this. The first six games, he was averaging more than 100 total yards per game. And then for some reason, had 18 carries for 47 yards in the final seven games,

I would have blamed the back and ankle injuries. he insists he was healthy. The Cardinals insisted he was healthy. Do you like David Johnson and the Texans? Yeah, I love David Johnson on the Texans. I think David Johnson is too young for us to call him rusted or dusted. And he just doesn't have enough miles. There's enough tread on the tires for me to still get super excited.

I mean, in 2016, he had one of the best fantasy seasons in the past decade. 2017, he was the consensus number one overall pick. And the consensus will be top two talents at running back in the league. I would say everybody agreed to. He got the cover of SI and all that, Janice. Then he got hurt, wrist, missed the whole year pretty much. And then the next year he was in the worst offense of all time with Josh Rosen,

where they literally just ran him into the left guard's butt. And last year, Kenyon Drake came in. He was dinged up. It was a new offense. Like, I don't really, I don't know, man. It doesn't take a lot for me to get excited about him being with the best quarterback he's ever had and maybe the most coherent offense. I was fascinated by the explanation he gave to his spin.

why he, again, 18 carries in his final seven games. He said, I had little nicks and bruises with some minor injuries, nothing major. Cliff Kingsbury told me that they were going with the hot hand with Chase Edmonds and then with Kenyon Drake, and it was just tough to bounce back from that. And I kind of believe that. That makes sense. It makes sense. And the other part of this that I think is so intriguing is what happened in last year

where you got benched, I just can't see it with the Texans right now because the Texans depth chart, and with the caveat, I can't predict any. anything Bill O'Brien will do. But the Texan step chart is David Johnson, Duke Johnson, and three undrafted free agents. So David Johnson's going to get so many carries. He's so much better than Carlos Hyde last year, whose contract has expired. And he's getting the fourth most money at running back this season. I think that he's going to get a lot of carries in an offense that suddenly has a lot of snaps that they need to give it to someone other than DeAndre Hopkins. So I kind of love David Johnson this year. I mean, he's the 25th ranked running back.

Yeah, when we do the My Guys episode, I think you and I are both going to be aligned on David Johnson that we... Yeah, we're going to be clawing at each other for that. He is trusted. Are we trusting? Is this crazy that we're going to trust? All right, screw it.

All right, we're trusting David Johnson. We believe in you, David. Receivers! This is heated. First up, Julio Jones and the Falcons. I have a beat with this. I know, it's like, record stretch, wait, what? Yeah, Julio Jones is up for debate

because he's in the Tim Duncan territory where every year you're like, okay, he's kind of older now. He has bruises knicked up a little bit here and there. Like, eventually he's not going to have 100 catches for 1,500 yards, right? And he's the Marshawn Lynch of wide receivers. And we're going to discuss if this is the year when you should lay off. You can't just say everyone's the Marshall Lynch of their thing.

Yes, I can. I think this is insulting because Julio's 31, but he's not an old guy. Julio's not an old guy. But he's the only, like, really high-end wide receiver right now where you see his name and you're bored of him. He's the same. He had been there for a long time. And you're just like, I don't know. There's something in your fridge.

You check the expiration date. And you're like, oh, not even close. That's weird. Yes. Like, is Julio? Well, I don't know. It's like, is he a week away from his expiration? Yeah, yeah, I could probably still eat this yogurt.

Yeah, it's fine. Yeah, it's fine. You're like, is it? I love Julio this year, as always. Back to Dirk Cutter. It's a lot of Dirk Cutter. It's a lot of Falcon's offensive coordinator. He throws the ball a lot.

So this is actually a second time he was the coordinator for Falcons. He was also the coordinator for the Falcons in 2012 to 2014. And again, J.J. Zacherese pointed out that that year in terms of past run ratio, so how much more they were passing the throwing, the Falcons ranked seventh, third at first. And then last year with Cutter back, they ranked first. And where did Cutter come from? The Buccaneers with Jamis, where they were passing all the time. So, I mean, Dirk Cutter's a throwing offense. He says, oh, we're going to run the ball a little more. I don't believe him. I'll take the five years of history over what he's saying in, like in May to reporters.

But so on top of the fact that I'm confident the Falcons are going to be a top 10 passing offense, really good chance at top five most past attempts or at least pass run ratio, you look at their depth chart. Julio's the number one receiver. Calvin Ridley's the number two. Russell Gage, he's their third receiver because Sunu is gone. Lequan Shredwell is four. And then I believe they have seven undrafted free agents after.

And Austin Hooper's gone and they now have Hayden first. and Hooper's gone, and they replaced him with Hayden Hurst, who will go down as the guy the Ravens took before Lamar Jackson. So I just think that this is, for the seventh year in a row, I think Julio has a chance to get 170 targets this year. And that alone makes him a top five receiver. So I was trying to figure out why I feel the way I do about Julio and why I think other people do as well. And so this is what it is. I've had Julio a couple times in fantasy leagues over the past four years. Julio is always good, but he never exceeds expectations

and he never exceeds his drafts ranking. The last four years, he hasn't done it. The last four years, he was drafted as a wide receiver three, four, two, and two. He's never tied it or beat it. All right, but he's always been in the top ten, though. He's finished seven, seven, and eight. Yes, he's always right below it.

So it's like you drafts him, he's a little bit worse, and you're never just like oozing with excitement like you are when you drafts him down. And he just blows you away. Julio doesn't blow you away. He's going to be a little bit worse, he'll still be respectful. That's so true.

Julio's the highest floor, but you rarely feel immense pride. No. When you have him on your team. No. That's why he's boring. You don't think about him. Well, there's a reason for that.

It's because he has this weird, like, ends up, like he just can't score in the red zone. And like, that's lasted through like three offensive coordinators at this point between Shanhan, Sarkeesian and now Cutter. Just they can't get him the ball in the red zone.

There's this bizarre goal line deficiency that Julio has where he's like the most dominant receipts. in the league for the first 90 yards. And then the final 10, he just doesn't score touchdowns like any other of his contemporaries. Yeah. So the way I would say it is if you're in a draft and you've been risky with your running backs,

maybe you take Julio because he's safe. But if you've been safe with your running backs, maybe you don't take Julio and you take somebody else who's a little bit more fun who has a higher upside. I think there's something to be said again. Continuities king, Julio's my king for 2020. Flipside. I mean, trusted.

Trust it all the way. If you say Rulio's rusted, I never won't. No, no, no, he's trust. I'm just saying, you know, think about it. Flip side. AJ Green on the Bengals. On Mike Julio, A.J. is an old guy, even though they were drafted in the same draft, two picks apart and are almost the same age because AJ turns 32 in July. You know what I mean, though?

AJ Green is like an older guy? Like, you see age and you're like, oh, man, like he's, you know, is this the year? That's the old guy thing. AJ, obviously, I mean, didn't play last year. I mean, he had the ankle injury, which that's its own story. he did not end up playing. So, do you know the last time AJ Green had more than 120 yards in a game?

2017? Yes, October 8th, 2017. As I looked, I try to make a pros cons list for AJ Green. And the cons is Joe Burrow, who, I mean, I think Joe Boar is going to really good. I'm not confident he'll be really good right now. The offensive line's still really bad,

even though they have more talent. It's still not a great offensive line, probably immediately. And then AJ Green has just not been healthy, and now in two years, hasn't played double-digit games in two years. And the pros are he'll be the guy he was three years ago. Yeah, sadly, I think AJ Green will go down as one of the more underrated receivers to play his game. I think from a talent perspective, he's like right in line with Julio Jones and all those other guys. But I think it's time to put AJ Green on the shelf.

If AJ Green had been, for example, like on the Jets, he would and had the same. career he would just be so much more famous. Yeah. And instead he kind of got buried in Cincinnati where it's, I mean, one of the smaller markets and everything. And I just, this bizarre mediocrity of the Andy Dalton, Marvin Lewis era, where they were always in contention, but never really, never really that bad. And then now I, it's really upsetting.

I hope, I hope I'm wrong. And I hope that he is great with Joe Burk because he deserves it. But his, I mean, his age paired with the lack of the offseason, pair with the rookie quarterback. I don't know. But if you put a gun to my head, I'm more likely to say dust than trust. So I'll land in the middle and say rust. Let me give you a quick name game for AJ Green here.

Okay. Terry McLaren. McLaren. D.K. Metcalf. DJ Chark. Green. I'm out on the Jaguars. Jarvis Landry. Jarvis.

Debo Samuel. Debo. Okay. Last one. Tyler Boyd. Oh, you know. Green. Green. Okay. Okay. That's a good name again.

All right. Next up. This is very... Wait, so you on Rust? You're on Rust on A.J. Green? Yeah. Okay. He's definitely rested.

All right. Next up, Julian Edelman. Still on the Patriots. Potentially the worst offseason out of anybody. So he turns 34 on... Well, I don't know. There's been some bad off seasons. But Julia Edelman turns 34 on Friday.

I have a really important question for you. His brain turned like 52. No comment. I have a number. important question. His birthday is on Friday. Do you think Tom Brady wishes him a happy birthday on Instagram? Oh, on Instagram? Oh, I thought you were going to say personally. No, no, no, on Instagram. Has he done it in the past? Julian Edelman gave a very elaborate. I'm talking like a two-minute edited video for Tom, like a super cut for Tom Brady's birthday in August. And since then, Tom Brady's left

the Patriots. And then after they traded for Rob Grancowski, where obviously Grank was like, Tom Brady wanted me to play with him or whatever. Julian Edelman unfollowed him in Instagram, got caught, and then refollowed him. So do you think Brady says happy birthday, Edelman? Yeah, probably. Just to like mend fences and keep the relationship afloat. But it's kind of weird now. I feel like Edelman is creeping on the, you know, like the guy in middle school who like,

or in high, whatever it is. Just like the type of person where they were like really trying to be your friend. And you're like, hey man, like keep a safe distance. Like, yeah, like we just have English together. we did one class project, like relax. And Edelman's like, nah, man, so what are we doing next weekend? And you're like, no, that was just one time because we were doing Catcher in the Rye, but now we're

good, all right? Like, would Brady if just straight up who he likes more as a player, Wes Welker or Julian Edelman, who does he pick? Oh, Edelman. Well, Edelman, Stinkley's been there the longest of like any player other than like Dion Branch. I mean, he's been there since 2009. You think he would take Peak Ellman over Peak Welker for one game? Yeah, because Edelman

had the Falcons game and Welker dropped the ball, literally dropped the ball in the Giants game. And if it's not Welker's fault, that would mean it's Tom Brady's fault, which would kind of melt the faces of Patriots fans. It couldn't melt Tom Brady's face, though, because he's had a lot of work time. You think it's melting points higher or lower than human skin? You're right. It's actually probably higher.

Probably more at risk. Anyway, actual fantasy talk. DK is actually a huge proponent of this, but Edelman is really hurt both emotionally, but actually productivity-wise by Brady leaving, because so much of his game is the kind of game Brady has, quick passes, high IQ, chemistry, the irreplaceable aspect of having 10 years with the most experienced quarterback of all time.

Yeah, he was the king of like little quick out, he'd catch the ball on his stomach and he'd fall to the ground. But it was like, it's the epitome of veteran savvy of the combo of like agility, of jitteriness. And Brady and Edelman, if they had a window for any amount of time, we're better at getting the ball into that window if you opened it for any amount of time. And Edelman's whole game is just give me a window,

and the ball will be there. And now that it's so bad to go from literally, again, Tom Brady's just played more football than anyone else ever, other than like kickers. And going from that to Jared Stiddam is a huge problem. So even though I think that, you know, volume, sure, he's going to see volume, but I am not bullish that Edelman's going to have some career year or something

just now that Brady's gone. And I think that Jared Stidham doesn't have to replace Brady. He's going to replace the 2001 version of Brady. I think the paths are going to go back to a lot of running and a lot of defense. and they're going to go 20 years in the time machine. Instead, it's going to be this game manager, and I'm really worried about what that does to Edelman.

I don't feel the same way about volume, about wide receivers as I do about running backs. Like, I'm more willing to invest in a running back who's just going to get pure volume as I am about a receiver who's going to get pure volume, just because it requires so much more of a connection. So I'm not really into Edelman this year. You know how when there's like,

if you have two old dogs and one dies, usually the next one just dies like a week after because they've just like they had nothing to live for anymore. That's how I feel about Edelman's fantasy. career. It's like Brady's gone. I didn't know that, but that was really depressing. Oh, that's totally a thing. Dogs get sad. It's the same thing. Like, when you no longer have what you, like, even old people are the same way. It's like you lose your partner when you're old. There's them to live for anymore in football. So you would say he's dusted. Oh, he's dusted. He's dusted.

Oh, he's dusted. Speaking of, well, this is the opposite. This is someone who was old and then found their purpose late life. Larry Fitzgeralds with the Cardals, wandered his whole life in the quarterback desert. And now that he's 36, 37, he has Kyler Murray. It's kind of beautiful. I know. It's like in Toy Story when they got, when Andy left for college and they got the young niece. Oh my God. We have a new life. Here's the thing. We gave Larry Fitzgerald the old yellow award two years ago. Which was that you just have to put him down. Yeah, we just put him in so. Not in real life, just in fantasy. Put him down. Now here's the thing. In real life, he's absurdly impressive. He has me. He's second most receiving yards ever career. And then last year, it's 75

catches for 804 yards. He's 36. He had 800 receiving yards at 36. 11 people have done that ever. So like, that's really impressive. Having said that, they added DeAndre Hopkins. And I don't care if Kyler Murray wins the MVP this year, which I actually kind of think might happen.

But how is Larry Fitz going to have a great season with DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk and him all getting reps? And I also think Kenyon Drake is going to be a big part of the passing game. Larry Fitz is like almost going undrafted this year. He's like the 67th ranked receiver. 180th overall. It's basically undrafted or end of your bench. But generally, I think we all believe end of bench is generally good for upside. And I don't know if Larry Fitz has upside anymore. I kind of like him as like the fifth guy in your roster and he's a bi-week play because he's

safe. And that's huge. He's a character guy. He's good for your locker room. You know, if you believe in fantasy chemistry, which I mean, you know, there is karma at work here. Then great, great pick. He's a morale, morale booster. He's a veteran. He can show the rest of your players at a go, but I am dubious of the actual production when they've added DeAndre Hopkins, and also he's going to be 37. If I said Larry Fitzgerald was six years younger than Tom Brady, does that make him sound old or young? Old.

I don't want any receivers who are six years younger than Tom Brady. It's my rule. All right. I think Larry Fitz is dusted. I'm sorry to say. I don't know. I'm going to say he's rested. I know.

Tough. All right. Last up. Tight end. It's Gronk. I believe honesty is the best policy. And I'm going to be honest about this. I'm an opinionated person.

I have no idea what to make of Rob Gronkowski coming back to the NFL. Wow. How vulnerable. I don't think. Like, I don't, here's the thing. John Gonzalez wrote a great piece for The ringer.com about how offensive linemen have to lose all this weight when they retire from the NFL. And every year someone retires.

And you see some viral. of them. I guess we got to stop saying that word viral, but a photo that goes all over the internet of how much weight they lost. And that was grok, right? Like six months after the retirement, like you see he lost all that weight. Now he used to put it back on. What is the history of people who lost all of their football weight and then put it back on on top of all of the injuries he had that forced him to retire in the first place and the pain he was in? On top of Bruce Ariens's offenses don't really use tight ends. On top of, they have O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate, so how much he's going to play.

And then, but I don't know what to make of this. I just keep coming back to Tom Brady wanted him, so he'll throw him the ball. Yeah, this is a, I have no idea. The way thing is interesting, going up and down and up and down, it's like Kristen Bale's acting career. It's just like, that's exactly it. It's just really hard on the body. I think the one part I don't care for, I think the Bruce Ariens doesn't use tight ends thing is bullshit.

He's never had gronk, and now he has gronk and Brady. He doesn't have bronc now. He's not Gronk, capital G. I think Gronk is going to have like, he's a W-W-E champion. He's going to have like two or three really awesome games

and the rest of the season he's going to have three catches for like 38 yards every game and he'll be useful in the playoffs. That's what I think. I feel that the thing about Gronk, again, he had a thousand, he had more than 1,000 yards in 2017.

He was actually an all pro in 2017. And then 2018 kind of, I don't want to say shelve himself. I think, what was it? Bill Simmons always called him like being kept in the garage. until December and January for the playoff run and then he did actually catch one of the biggest

passes in the Super Bowl but I guess again it just comes back to this theme we've been touching on with Tom Brady AJ Green Rob Gruncowski there's a point where guys so famous for so long and so beloved that when they get to this kind of older geyser stage and they're declining someone in your league's going to pull trig on them

way earlier than their value and again there is a point in drafts where Rob Grunkowski is a value I think he's ranked he's ranked, what is he? 13th, tight end, or 13th on fantasy pros, overall 130th. I got news for you. He's not going to get drafted after Noah Fant.

No one in your league is going to take no offense before Rob Grancowski. Or Jared, or Tyler Higby probably. That's the thing. He's going to get drafted ahead of where he's ranked because he's Robb freaking Gronkowski, he's the best tight end of all time. He's, someone's going to be like, yeah, I'll take the fly around him. So you have to take him so much earlier than the ranking to actually get him,

or if it's an auction league, you have to spend so much more than the number next to his name that I'm so dubious of what you have to do to get him. And in fantasy, a great fantasy player, you have to be able to separate the name and the value. Yeah. Yeah, it's all about finding the next guy. And it's much more important to me to find who's the, I would rather have Hayden Hurst, who as we mentioned, the Falcons, we're going to pass so much of nobody on the depth chart. I'd much rather have Hayden Hurst in like the 14th round filling out of my tight end and banking that

he just gets the third most targets on the Falcons, then taking Gronk like six rounds earlier because I had to reach for him because I wanted him. Now, if you really want him because you like Ronk and he just, you know, inspires you, go for it. Ultimately, it's about fun. But I don't think you're going to get him at a value. No, and if you're going to draft him,

you need to draft another guy who's in the same. Like, you need to get him in Mike. That's the thing you need a backup tight end. That's the other problem. Like, this is an old Lombardi rule. If you take a, if you take a player for a position and it doesn't fix your problem with the position, that's not the right player.

And part of the issue with Gronk is if you draft a tight end and you still need another tight end, that's not really great. So, and there you go. Doubles for Ben Rothesburg or two. All right. Those are old geysers. So wait, is Grunk rusted, trusted, or dusted? I think he's rusted, but real closer to dust than truss. He's so much closer to dust and russ.

He's flirting with dust. I mean, he retired. It isn't insulting. He retired already. You watching the last dance? MJ retired. What happened after that? yeah he hit like 200 in baseball

I forget I don't know this is the young person pot I don't know last up this is a very special just a little news update it's a new segment a new nice cut of beef

from Craig Craig has a few corners I guess four corners on this show and two of them crashed into each other this week altering space time Craig

do you want to tell us about your boy Devante Parker so Devante Parker beloved fantasy star of 2019 and wide receiver on the Dolphins got to Twitter beef with Michael Thomas, the receiver on the Saints. Sorry, not Twitter beef.

I don't think he got into it. He was lassoed into a Twitter beef by Michael Thomas. That's how I looked at it. So there was a poll that Michael Thomas posted and it was like... No, not NFL on Fox posted on that. Oh, that's right. And it was like, would you rather...

What's harder being guarded by Stefan Gilmore or basically guarding Michael Thomas? And Devonty Parker said... Yeah, he was like, getting guarded by Stefan Gilmore. And then it created this whole thing. They're going back and forth. And if you look at this beef,

should we read the beef? It's quick. If you want to read it, go for it. Okay. Michael Thomas said, yeah, for you, yes, go run some numbers up.

Then you can talk. I lapped you and been in the league longer than me first rounder. And Devante Parker said, got some hard feelings there, brother. Let me get targeted 300 times a game. And then Michael Thomas said, in other words,

you weak. They don't even put your name in the same sentence as me. DeVonte Parker said, quit crying, bruh. I think at the end of this, Devante Parker won. You can't leave out, you can't leave out Michael Thomas ending it by saying

you can't even get a seat at the table. Michael Thomas comes out of this looking super desperate. Here's my true belief of this. If you just look at Michael Thomas's Twitter, he obviously has been watching the last dance because he's been talking about it. I was going to bring this up. He's trying to do the thing

where he's like getting slay. and he's going to turn into his season? I'm dead serious. I think there's a wave of, because look, every athlete was watching this documentary series, like, wrapped.

And I think this is the first of like a wave of players who are going to start beefing with people publicly to be like Michael Jordan. You are 100% right. 100% right. I was talking to friend about this the other day.

There's going to be like so many like more practice brawls now or like Kevin Durant punches Kyrie Irving to show that like he's not practicing hard enough. And it's, all going to be fake. Dude, because here's the thing.

I feel like for so long, the thing has been, don't read the comments, ignore the haters. And now it's, there are watched this, so many players watch this Jordan documentary. It's like,

no, you got to read all the comments. You got to read every word. You got to find everyone who's ever doubted you with fuel. And I, wow. So it's like,

hey, Michael Thomas, you are better than Devante Parker. You've had a way better career than Devonte Parker. You're on pace to be a hall of famer. What are you doing? Act like you've been there before.

I know. I love to Monday Parker saying cool I could be that way too if I had 300 targets a game that was great it's a great burn because what can Michael Thomas say? He said Drew Breed's his whole life and he gets the most targets in the league every year. When I was at the combine in Indianapolis, which being in another place feels like a lifetime ago. That's a big flex just saying you're in another place. Yeah, it really is. You know when you're at a bar and you're trying to get the bartender's attention and you look down the line to say, okay, who else am I like, who else is trying to get the. bartender's attention. I did that at a bar in Indianapolis and I looked down and it was just me and Michael Thomas. And I was like, hmm, I wonder who he was going to get their drink first.

Oh, it's not like Michael Thomas is that recognizable to a bartender. He's not as famous as you'd think for someone who just set the NFL record for catches. That's what's tough about playing football. Maybe that's why he's starting beef. Maybe. He just wants to be recognized. This is a cry for help. Well, this whole podcast was a cry for help. Team Devonte. Team Devante. No, team DK forever. DK, we miss you. Please come back.

Craig, this was lovely. Yeah, it was. We are trusted, not dusted. Yeah, we are trusted. We trust DK. We'll be back. Thank you to everyone for listening. Please stay safe.

And we'll see you guys next week.