The Ringer NFL Show - Who Can Beat the 2021 Chiefs?

Episode Date: September 7, 2021

Kevin is joined by The Athletic’s Nate Taylor and PFF’s Eric Eager to discuss the Chiefs’s offseason and how they look to remain dominant in the AFC. He returns by speaking with The Athletic’s Sheil Kapadia and ESPN’s Marcel Louis-Jacques about how the other teams in the AFC plan to dethrone the Chiefs. Host: Kevin Clark  Guests: Nate Taylor, Eric Eager, Shiel Kapadia and Marcel Louis-Jacques Associate Producer: Stefan Anderson Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey everybody, this is Warren Sharp, NFL analyst over at Sharp Football Analysis. I want to welcome you to The Ringer Gambling Show. Join me on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays each week during the NFL season with guests Chris Vernon, Ben Solac, and Joe House to guide you through the NFL betting landscape. We'll be talking spreads, game totals, parlays, player props, futures, and much, much more. Be sure to follow the Ringer Gambling Show on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It is the Renfell Show, part of the Runner Podcast Network. I'm Kevin Clark.

This is our new Wednesday show. It'll appear every week on this feed. And it's going to be really fun. It's going to be a deep dive into one topic every single week. And we're going to start with the biggest topic in the league right now, which is who can beat the Kansas City Chiefs specifically in the AFC. It is the problem that is keeping every GM and coach up at night. If you're in the AFC right now, it's the fact that Patrick Mahomes is under contract.

from another nine years. They solved their offensive line problem. They have one of the best offensive minds in football as head coach, and they have talent at basically every level of the football field. We wanted to bring in some experts, four of the best football thinkers going right now. We're talking to Chiefs Beat Rider Nate Taylor and Chiefs fan and Data Genius Eric Eager from Pro Football Focus.

And then to talk about the rest of the AFC and how the Chiefs could potentially be toppled and if they can be toppled, and what lessons teams can learn, we brought in Shilkapati from the Athletic and Marcel Luis Jacques, who covers the dolphins for ESPN and has also covered the Buffalo Bill.

I wanted to figure out, A, what the 2021 chiefs will look like and how they got to this point, and B, who can beat them, what lessons can teams take from them, and just in general, what's this going to look like? Now, I know there's an obvious answer

to the question, who can beat the Chiefs. The answer is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who did so in the last game that we all watch. That obviously was a different situation. They fixed their offensive line since then. Patrick Mahomes was banged up.

And they still might beat the Kansas City Chiefs this year because they brought everybody back in Tampa Bay. They're a juggernaut as well. But nobody seems more set up for consistent success over the next decade than the Kansas City Chiefs. And we wanted to do a deep dive into how that happened and where everybody else in the league goes from here to combat that. Let's get started.

Joined by two of the smartest chiefs observers and football observers in the world. Eric Eager from Pro Football Focus and Nate Taylor, the chief speed writer for the athletic. I want to start with you, Nate. When you saw what happened in February, and we've all heard the story now that Brad Beach saw Patrick Mahomes in an elevator bank after the game and said, we're going to fix this. What are the most important things that the chiefs did over the past couple of months? to improve their team beyond the obvious. Yeah, thanks for having me on. A lot of it goes to not being afraid to completely revamp,

not being afraid to try to extend this, you know, championship window for the Chiefs. And so, you know, in March they made some tough decisions where Eric Fisher was one of the better left tackles. They released him, you know, as he's recovery from an Achilles injury. Mitchell Swartz was contemplated in retirement already after having his back injury in October, they release him. And they just become ultra-aggressive.

And I think that's what Veech has sort of always been known for. They are capable of trying to improve both the roster and maintaining cap flexibility, for lack of a better word, moving forward. And so I think the biggest thing that they did this year was they improved not only offensive line, but I think, you know, for your listeners, they also improved the defensive line. I mean, they signed Jaron Reed to a one-year deal

he could have an impact the season because that allows Chris Jones to move from primarily defensive tackle to be in this hybrid pass rusher at the defensive end. And so if there's real improvement on this Chief's team, it will come up front on both sides of the ball. Eric, I want to talk about the front office and their willingness to sort of go for it. Because I've talked to Beach about this in the past. I think we all have at some point where he's basically saying we're not going to, they're going to go all in every year. And they're going to, they're going to spend to the cap.

They obviously have cost control with their quarterback. But when you think about how they're maximizing their window and sort of what they're doing to compete every single year, are the front office making the right moves for this sort of roster year in or year out? Is there a different approach they should be taking? Or is this, are they on the right path right now? Well, I think that they get a lot of leeway and a lot of freedom because of Pat's contract. I mean, Mahomes' contract is very friendly to them.

Um, he, you know, the hardest problem in football and I think football analytics is deciding whether or not your quarterback is worth that veteran deal. I think Mahomes is the biggest slam dunk. That has happened in a long time. And unlike with Josh Allen, let's say, or some of these other guys, there really is no question that they're getting a value here. And so when I look at the New Orlando Brown trade, I personally don't think the Orlando Brown trade was positive, expected value for the chiefs. But what I do think it does is it pays Mahomes back. for being generous to Kansas City, right? So he gives them that affordability.

Joe Tuny, like, look, a guard is not, spending that much money on a guard is rarely ever going to end up giving surplus value. But again, you're giving back the Pat, and I think making him happy, making it such that you never end up with an Aaron Rogers situation is extremely important. And so, again, they do that.

And again, it makes sense that they're doing stuff to help Mahomes. So I, you know, I don't mind them going for it. I think that it has to be part of an understanding with Pat and with the front office that, like, if you guys want to compete for a Super Bowl all the time, your contract has to be this kind of flexible thing that is, you know, is something to everybody every single year in a different way. But I agree with Nate.

I think, you know, when you look at some of the stuff, like they've hit, you know, they've hit on some things that are kind of like valuable like corner where they're not spending a lot of money and they're not you know they didn't have to trade anything to get to where they are so then they've loaded up on positions where they've been historically a little bit weaker like interior defensive line as well as offensive line and to me the scary part for the league is that they've made three straight a fc championship games and two super bowls in a row and they really outside of mahomes have really donked every draft that that they've had since 2018.

And you look at this draft, and it's like the three players on the right side of their offensive line are all on rookie deals. And if they're all good, they have such a bounty. And as Nate said, you look at the interior of their defensive line now, even if you throw Chris Jones out of the mix and make him a defensive end, they have four guys there who could be pretty good. And so not to mention Willie Gay,

who I think Nate mentioned was one of the better looking players in the entire preseason. season for them until he got injured. Nick Bolton's a good pick. They could really run up a streak of luck here that kind of puts the league at arm's length, which is crazy. Hey, Nate, you're a practice every single day, and I've been to two practices over the past three years, and so you know that's much better than I do, but I'm watching their practices is something special. I mean, they just get stuff done. And people mention to me, there's never any practice fights. There's never any else stop it to do some circusy motivational speech.

Andy Reed just puts the plays in and then they go. And the business like atmosphere is kind of admirable. But I'm curious what the vibes have been like the past couple of months in Kansas City after that game and knowing what they know, which is that they ran out of linemen. So they've kind of built an excuse, but it doesn't help matters. And I talked to Patrick about him rewashing the Super Bowl just for an education process. Obviously, you can read that story on the ringer.com. But I'm curious just from an emotional standpoint, what training camp and the first couple

weeks of practice in Kansas, of Kansas. Yeah. By the way, it was great to have you in St. Joseph. It was hot. Thank you. It was a great piece you wrote. I really enjoyed it. Yeah, the atmosphere,

I would say, is one of they are so workmen-like. They are so efficient. Like, talking to other reporters around the league, obviously getting to look at the hard knocks with the cowboys and other, you know, video entities with other teams,

they are so sure. of what they want to get done every day, that there really isn't a wasted motion. They weren't reps at a point that is almost blistering. One of the funny things from Jaron Reed, and I've seen this every trainee camp where you're bringing a new guy, he's already talented, he's already had success in the league.

This happened with Frank Clark in 2018, Tyron Matthew as well. Jerry and Reed, man, goes, they run so many plays. Like, I'm just so tired. Like, what do you mean? why would I get upset with Andrew Wiley or why would I get upset with Creed Humphrey

when Andy's just going to say next play. And I think for Patrick Mahomes, a lot of it is the freedom to experiment. And that's the beauty of training camp for the chiefs is by the time people are listening to this, obviously the game plans are already put in place. They kind of already know what they think will work against the Cleveland Browns.

But the first two weeks of training camp is so much fun because I'm never seen the same thing twice. And I just think that is extremely rare for an NFL training camp because they're able to get to stuff much faster. And that, in essence, leads to why they're so successful in September, most notably. Patrick Mahomes has never lost the game in September. He's never thrown an interception. I mean, the guy has gone through just about every game-like scenario as you get to week one. And I'm just not sure, Kevin, how many teams are week one ready in that capacity.

Andy Reid in September with Patrick Mahomes. Just unbelievable record. So I want to do the team building thing. I want to do all the smart shit. But I need to ask you this. It's Patrick Mahomes who practices behind the back passes a lot in practice. Is he ever going to throw one in the game? Yes.

It's going to happen. I agree. I don't know. I don't know where it's going to happen, Kevin. But he threw one to Eric B. Enemy where it was just like, I can see this. I can see, you know, Tyree Kill always does this sort of quick motion, this jet sweep stuff.

I can see that a, you know, pass run option where the running back goes the opposite direction and he throws the ball behind his back. I mean, what's the, what's the divest supposed to do? I don't know when it's going to run, but I won't be stunned, even though, you know, 70,000 people in the stands. I only say that because he says he wants to test limits and practice and he practices everything else. But then he's like, well, I practice this, but I'm never going to do it in a game. You've done everything else, Patrick. Eric, I'm calling you out, buddy. You're going to run it.

Eric, what is the gap? So first of all, let's just actually work on the biggest question, which is, are the chiefs the best team of football in 2021? Yeah, I think it's, and I actually think it's somewhat sizable. Our power rankings have them, like a few, like they're, you're not going to separate teams by points, like full point. But if you look at, you know, our power ranking for Kansas City has them, you know, two and a half, three points better than Tampa Bay.

It's two and a half points. they are the best team in the NFL. They're the favorites to win the Super Bowl. And they probably will be for the next decade every single year. I think this year, Tampa does have a little bit of a claim, whereas a season ago, it was kind of the Ravens, maybe San Francisco early on, we sort of saw the flaws in that team. This season, I think it is Tampa.

And the only thing that would make me a little worried about the Chiefs coming out of the AFC would be that Tampa has a far easier road to come out of the NFC. And so they get a one seed. And like, let's say we rerun the Super Bowl again. I think the Chiefs are still three-point favorites like they were coming, you know, in February. But it's going to, I worry about as a Chiefs fan, I'm worried about Tampa Bay more than anybody else in the entire NFL, even though the AFC is a lot harder. So I want to stick on that because you mentioned the decade thing and maybe they're just permanently going to be there. If we're looking out on the horizon, what kind of external dangers are there?

I mean, as long as they have Patrick Mahomes and you read, it seems like they're going to be good forever. But if you're saying, hey, they really need to watch this or on the flip side, a team needs to do this to get better. I mean, I talked to Brandon Bean about this a couple of weeks ago where they're basically, they drafted to beat the Chiefs. And I'm curious as this evolves, what the Chiefs need to do to kind of maintain that edge and what they need to watch out for how other teams are building their teams. Well, there's a couple things. I think it's really, I think the brilliance of Andy Reed is what they talked about, which is that they haven't lost, they haven't started anything worse than 4-0 since 2016. So like, and they come out of the gate really, they come out of the game with Andy like seven months of just cooking things up.

And like I have a metric called scheme uniqueness, which like always peaks like week three when they bomb Baltimore every single year. But it's like, and then the rest of the league tries to catch up to read, right? They run more emotions, they run more RPO's. And then, like, Reed, sort of, like, so his scheme uniqueness kind of falls back to the pack because everybody's literally chasing him around. And then in the playoffs, it goes back up because he cooks up new stuff. And usually the chiefs in December are playing less meaningful games than other teams. So then he's kind of like game planning for January in December, which is kind of cool.

So in that regard, like teams that are drafting to beat the chiefs, I think are like aiming at the wrong target because Reed is constantly moving that target, and that's what I think will make them, you know, tough to beat. To me, the biggest flaw in Kansas City right now and what could hurt them is that their passing game depends very heavily on two very brilliant players who might be one of the best tight-in wide receiver combos in league history, but that, you know, that's not going to be there forever.

And, you know, they tried Sammy Watkins. You know, obviously they traded up for McCull Hardman. I actually think Hardman's lived up to his draft position, It was just lofty, you know, because he was drafted before Metcalf. They need to develop skill position players beneath those guys so that when Kelsey eventually, you know, isn't as explosive as he once was, or Hill, you know, declines just a little bit. Like, I'd hate to see them like the Colts, right?

We're like T.Y. Hilton had a great career, and you're trotting them out there in his 30s, and he's still your number one receiver, and he gets injured or something. and you're stuck with no one behind him. Like I think that's the biggest leak for me is, like, is can they develop weapons for Pat as Pat, you know, sort of gets into the middle of that contract. And also with Hardman in particular, I think that we now pencil in any weapon that Mahomes has for,

this happened with Clyde de Ritz-Hillera as well, where it's like, uh-oh, rookie of the year. Like, I think everybody who's a skill guy who gets put in with Mahomes is just penciled in for rookie of the year. Nate, help me out on the offense here. If you took out Hill and or Kelsey, Who is the Jenga piece that is more important of that if we're looking in the next decade? Which guy needs to stay more relevant in the offense for this thing to really home?

I think it's Travis Kelsey, a guy that's already a Hall of Famer. I mean, he's had five straight seasons. I just looked this up. Five straight seasons of at least a thousand yards. As a tight end, look, I know it's a passing league, but that's wild. no one in league history, by the way, has ever done that. Not even Gronk. Obviously not Tony Gonzalez, not Antonio Gates. The flexibility they have from a scheme standpoint

and putting Kelsey out wide. And I want to remind people, one of Travis Kelsey's best plays last season was in the divisional round against the Cleveland Browns. Dinsa Ward is with him on the outside. Dinsa Ward should be fine. It should be a wash. Travis Kelsey cooks him. He scores a touchdown.

What I always try to remind him, people too is there have been games without Tyree Kill that the Chiefs is still operated at a very functional above average level. The issue for Mahomes is, and this is always sort of fascinating to me because we've literally only seen it once, Kevin. He played in week 17. He made his NFL debut in week 17 in 2017 with Alex Smith already clinching the Chiefs their playoff spot and that game was without Travis Kelsey. Since that game, every time Patrick Mahomes has been on the field, Travis Kelsey's been on the field. So anytime you have a third and eight, as much as I know fans think, oh, my God, that's the fastest guy on the field.

Like, everybody be aware of him. Most of the times the security blanket is Travis Kelsey. Most of the time the player who's going to dictate the coverage, the look, the read is Travis Kelsey because unless you're, you know, insert, incompetent defensive coordinator who's playing single high coverage. There's a lot of those going around. And hence why I said insert whoever you want. If you're not playing single high, which is the dumbest thing to play against the Chiefs, then everything else depends on Travis Kelsey and his ability to work the middle, to run these deep crossing routes, these, I mean, these out and ups that he ran when they won the Super Bowl in 2019,

that are just mind-boggling at his size, at his speed. And I need to remind folks, too, that Travis Kelsey's 31. So at some point, it's got to taper off. McCull Harmon needs to have a breakout season, in my opinion, for this Chief's offense to stay at nuclear levels. But I think the biggest key is Travis Kelsey. And you bring up, he brought up 2017. I mean, the Alex Smith era ended because Kelsey got a concussion against the Titans,

right? They're up 21-3 in that playoff game. And he has to sit out the second half, and they literally don't score another point. Like, his importance, I mean, he's one of the best tight ends in league history. And, you know, there is some worry that, He does so many things with his athleticism. He's not a big guy.

It's one of the reasons why the chief struggle in the red zone, relative to how good they are in between the 20s, is Kelsey's not a boxout tight end. He's a get open tight end. And when there's less space, like it's just not as effective. In the middle of the field, like he's the best separator at the position probably in league history. And, you know, if that diminishes even a little bit, like, you know, it could hurt the offense. Nate, how aware, I mean, obviously what?

Obviously, the Veech and Reed and his guys and Brent Tillis are going to look at other rosters and say, you know, we got to beat these guys or match up to it. But how much do you think that they think about kind of keeping that edge and playing the chess match to beat a Bills or Browns or Ravens? Are they reactive, proactive? I guess how do they view the rest of the AFC? I guess it's the question. Yeah, let's talk about it because it's a roster construction that you're of

year, I think slightly changes. Everything was so in front of everybody's eyes in February that it's like, let's just improve ourselves because we know, as Eric mentioned, as you've mentioned, Kevin, they have the best quarterback. They have the best asset in the NFL right now. One of the fun parts about 2018

and how they were ahead of schedule because Mahomes was just incredible that year was, okay, we need to go chase down the Patriots. A lot of things were, hey, how do we beat Tom Brady? there's this whole notion that the Patriots played ball control Brady was excellent for a half in the AFC championship game in 2018

they obviously get the coin toss and they win and so they had to revamp the entire defense for a rushing attack a ball control you know obviously ability to be more successful in the red zone as Eric mentioned before and then one of the more surprising things

was Lamar Jackson just burst at an impressive clip they win the number one seed in the AFC so a lot of times your planning for the offseason can literally change midway through the next season because obviously teams rise and teams fall.

They kept everybody back, similar to what Tampa Bay did after the 2019 championship season. And the thought process there was you know, Clark Hunt made a, and this is the team owner, Clark Hunt made a decision

that he wanted to win back-to-back Super Bowls, that they made it clear to everybody in the organization. Let's be with the first team since the Patriots of 2002 and 2000, excuse me, 2003 or 2004 to win back to my championships.

Now they've obviously reversed course. I think they are aware of the bills. I think they know the bills are chasing them similar to how they chase the Patriots in 2017 and 2018. My fun question to ask you, fellas, is that as they built this roster, as you understand Mahomes deal,

can always be sort of shifted in the way the salary cap is going to go. I just wonder how much can they maintain an average to above average defense because eventually that may be the thing that I think the NFL is kind of wishing for. Like, hey, maybe Tyron Matthew, maybe Tyron Matthew's not going to play at an all-pro level.

You know, who knows this Chris Jones experiment works. They have to go young pretty often. And sometimes, as Eric mentioned earlier, they have not made the right draft picks or those picks have just not worked out based on scheme or whatever the situation is on the defensive side of the ball. So the offense, I don't really question because Veach has a really good eye, Ryan Poles, Mike Bradway.

Their front office has a very good feel of what Andy wants on offense. It's just how long will Steve Spagnola be the defensive coordinator? And can they maintain a championship, you know, complimentary defense moving forward? Eric? I think you're a great question, especially, and Nate brings this up. It's like they sometimes draft differently than what Spagnola wants on that defense, which is sort of like you look at the linebacker position. and like, you know, Ben Neiman's like a nice story,

but like the guys played dime linebacker for three years and hasn't broken up a pass. You know, like literally at zero. And they've gone out and gotten, you know, Willie Gay and Nick Bolton as guys to compliment and they've always almost always preferred Anthony Hitchens and, you know, the Damien Wilson's of the world. And, you know, I wonder how congruent that drafting is with what Spagnola wants

because that's really going to have to be what it is. Like, Nate's right. I view it a little bit more. positively in the sense that two years from now, the Anthony Hitchens contract, the Frank Clark contract would probably be off the books. They could sort of shape the defense the way they want to.

But one of the reasons they went up and got Frank Clark is they've been utterly unsuccessful at drafting edge players for, you know, the better part of a decade. And they felt like they had to get an elite guy there. And to me, like, that is a good question. How, you know, once Matthew's gone,

once, you know, once Chris Jones maybe isn't like, John Randall like in the middle for them, what happens to their defense. And also how long does Spaggs want to do it? Because I firmly believe that Spagnolo has been an amazing player, amazing guy for them, getting players in positions to succeed when the draft capital or free agent status would not necessarily imply that. Okay. So first of all, Spagnola is 61 years old.

So at some point, over the lifetime of the deal, we can, you know, Reid has told Mahomes is going to be there for the next 10 years. That isn't the case for everybody on staff. All right, we will get you both out on this question. What is the number of Super Bowls over the life of Patrick Mahomes's contract, so the next 10 years, that you feel is a success that they can city choose? Nate? This sounds low, but I just want to remind people the numbers, too.

If they get two more super. If they get two more, he already has one. If they get two more over the life of this deal, that is a massive success. And I know folks will say, well, Tom Brady has seven. I mean, you know, but Aaron Rogers only has one. And as Eric mentioned before, so much of this moving forward beyond just this season is

making sure the relationship, the rapport, the understanding from both sides, how do you remain competitive in a league that is designed to not have you win multiple championships? I mean, there's a case we made that Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes could get to Belichick Brady levels. There's an argument to be made there. But honestly, Kevin, I'm a nerd about NFL history. Troy Aitman won three Super Bowls, okay?

Anytime anybody wins four, I think it's just legendary status. And obviously Mahomes has the talent to do it. But I say two is the appropriate number. Eric? Yeah, if I were as. sportsbook setting a line, I would say one and a half. I think Nate's, I think Nate's right. I mean, as a, as somebody

who's a fan, I think zero or one would tick me off a little bit. Two would still be disappointing, but probably right. And then, yeah, I agree. I mean, if he gets four Super Bowl, it's like, you look at the history of the league and it's not that many guys.

And, you know, and it just so much has to go right. I mean, I think the Chiefs are in a position much like the Patriots were over the last decade, every year they're playing a, they have a buy or something equivalent now. And so they're a team for which only one lucky thing has to happen for them to win the Super Bowl, whereas everybody else, it's like two or three lucky things have to happen. So they put themselves in a good spot.

But it's, as we saw last year, a lot has to go right to win that game. And so I would, I think two is probably the right number as well. Nate Taylor, Eric Eager, thank you for joining us. We're bringing in Chukapati from The Athletic and Marcel Luis Jop. from ESPN, the new Dolphins beatwriter, but longtime Buffalo Bills beat writer. And so the topic of this show is, can anybody beat the chiefs, especially in the AFC?

And kind of everything that goes along with that in the 2021 season where they're the heavy favorite, especially to win the conference. And I'm curious, Marcel, having now covered two AFC teams, how in the heads rent-free are the chiefs of these AFC-type teams? I talked to Brandon B in a couple weeks ago. but basically drafting off of the AFC title game where they couldn't get pass rush

and so they got Rousseau and that's something they thought about. They looked at that more than the entire 2020 season as a whole. And I'm curious, how much are those teams staying up at night thinking about how to beat the Chiefs? I mean, there's this stigma attached to a team being in your head or a team that you lose to remaining in your head. But the fact that the matter is,

if you want to win a Super Bowl, in the AFC, you're going to have to beat the Chiefs. So it makes a whole lot of sense. to draft and to build your team around beating the best team in the conference. And I think that's exactly what the bills did. That's all they heard about from myself and my colleagues, my peers, all offseason and all summer was, you know, how much does that game stick in your head?

And sometimes they just say it unprompted. Like it's very much fresh in their mind. Everybody accepts Stefan Diggs who had that, you know, awesome, I think award-winning photo, you know, hands on his helmet, staring at the celebration after the AFC title game. He said he doesn't need reminders, but for the other 52 guys on that roster right now, I think that it's pretty fresh in the mind.

Shield, big question. How does a team in the AFC build to beat the Chiefs? I think you build the offense. You've got to go toe to toe with them. You've got to be able to score. You cannot play scared. I think that was one of the things that Marcel brought up the bills there. Like in that AFC championship game,

I thought that their sort of game management was not who they were the entire season. You know what? They settled for field goals. I think it was three times on fourth and three and under. Like you've got to go in there with a realistic expectation of if you can stop Patrick Mahomes or not. Now, if you're the Bucks in the Super Bowl and the Chiefs offensive line is banged up and you've got a great defense and a great pass rush, all right, that's fine. You know, most of the time, that's not going to be the case. Like the guy's going to score.

So I think you look at it defensively. the approach has to be, you know, we'll play with two deep safeties. We'll try to disguise our coverages. Let's make them work for it as much as we can. There's still, you know, you could line like seven guys at the goal line and Andy Reid is still going to be pushing the ball down field. So like that, that's why he's a great offensive coach. But like that's the mindset to me. So you've got to have the offense that can just score on every drive. You've got to be able to go for touchdowns. And then defensively, you've got to try to get lucky, steal a possession here in there, make them work for it, get a sack,

turnover, whatever. To me, that's the formula. And I think the bill's approach has been great. I mean, they built up the offensive line, the weapons. They said, put our quarterback in position to succeed. Now they're in position to have a top five offence and kind of compete with Kansas City. Marcell, who's

the second best team in the AFC right now? I think it's got to be Cleveland. Just the way that they've built that roster up and kind of stockpiled all of this talent over the past several seasons. I think with Baker Mayfield, he came to the league with such a bang. I do kind of think that he entered the league at his peak. I don't know how much better he's going to get than that rookie season,

but I don't think he necessarily has to be with Kevin Sopansky's offense. It's going to revolve around Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in that run game first. And I don't think Nick Chub's going anywhere anytime soon. That guy's only getting better. The defense is excellent. Miles Garrett is a terror. They've improved the secondary bit over the past couple of years. So, you know, all signs are pointing to it.

But going to Shield's point in terms of just going blow for blow with Kansas City, I don't think that Ken's, I don't think Cleveland is built for that. I think Cleveland's best chance at beating Kansas City is classic ball control. Like I said, their offense revolves around that ground game, keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes' hands as much as humanly possible. I don't know if that's going to work, but I think that is their best shot at being able to do it. In terms of just, you know, all-out aerial attack besides the bills,

I think that Tennessee is quietly, you know, quietly built to go blow for blow with the chiefs. Just because, you know, they can do whatever you want. They can play the ball control game with the mountain they have and shoulder pads in the backfield. Or they can air the ball out with A.J. Brown and Leo Jones. Right in town of Hill is a capable passer. So there are a couple teams that are, you know, in theory could beat the chiefs. But besides Buffalo, I don't know if I am confidently, you know, if I would confidently put money on any of them to do so.

Sheel, I like the Tennessee, Marcel's suggestion. Is there anybody else, whether that's Tennessee or anybody else, that we're not even thinking about it's not on the radar, because I think that we view this, and maybe it's just me, but I feel like the media hive mind goes, Kansas City up top. And then there's a grouping of Buffalo, Baltimore, maybe Cleveland in that,

and maybe Cleveland's on a third tier alone. But nobody talks about Tennessee. Nobody talks about the Patriots. Nobody talks about Miami, for instance. It just feels like that's the conversation. Is the conversation wrong about who can win the AFC? No, I think that's the right pecking order. I think you go chiefs and then you do have that next year with Buffalo, Cleveland, and Baltimore.

That makes sense to me. Now, after that, a team you didn't mention, if we want to go deep sleeper and offer some hot takes on this with the team that I think could be this year's version of the Buffalo Bills. and I know they're cursed every year, but the Chargers. I mean, the Chargers have the potential to have that ceiling where they're scoring 30 plus points a game. I mean, it will be no surprise if we hit December, January, and we say Justin Herbert is one of the five best quarterbacks in the NFL. They've unlocked him.

They're not running into the line of scrimmage on first and second down like they did last year and asking him to be Superman on third down. Hey, their offensive line kind of came together a little bit. It's not a great offensive line, but it's mediocre. And can this team beat the Chiefs in a one game? situation in January. Like, I'm not, that's not the most likely outcome. But if you're looking at teams below the ones we just mentioned, that's the one that I've

kind of gone all in on that I'm going to get old takes exposed on probably in October. But that's the one that I've gone on all in on it. And I do believe it. It's going to be Marcel and I smashing the retreat for your, for your terrible charges takes. So I will say, in the LA times today, Brandon Staley actually said he's taking that on head first and is talking to his team about how everybody thinks they're cursed and he's trying to move past it. So he is the first coach to acknowledge at least the perception that Los Angeles

chargers are cursed. Marcel, I want to talk about quarterbacks here for a second. Let's stick with Josh Allen since obviously he spent the last couple of years with him. What kind of does he need to get better for them to be able to topple the Kansas City Chiefs? Does he need to sustain his level? Are you expecting regression? What are the Josh Allen, expectations for you in 2021? I mean, there's kind of a wide spectrum here. I think the natural reaction is that there's no way he can sustain that level of play every year or year out.

Like he has to kind of come back down to earth, right? Well, the thing is he did leave a lot of plays on the field at times. While, you know, the gunslinger superhero mentality sort of worked out more often than not, there were still a lot of times last year where he's running 13 yards behind the line of scrimmage trying to stiff arm Aaron Donald. and get a pass off. Those plays kind of have to go, because they set your offense up

in kind of a poor situation. But I don't think he necessarily has to make a similar tight leap that we saw out of them last season. I think if he sustains this level of play, man, I mean, 4,500 yards, 37 touchdowns through the air, that's a pretty high level of play. And then you tack another game onto that. I mean, you very realistically could crack that 5,000-yard mark.

And, you know, he did have kind of a slow stretch that slowed his pace down during the middle of the last season. But no, I think that it's not necessarily Josh Allen. It's Buffalo's run game. There has to be a threat to do something else with the ball because last year you knew whatever the bills were going to do, it was going through Josh Allen. I think it took a couple people I surprised early on in the year,

but teams started to get the hang of it toward the middle. If it weren't for that last storage stretch the end of the season, I don't know if the bills would have locked up that two seed. So I think if he gets more supportive, support from that ground game. If that offensive line stays healthy, then there's not a whole lot that he has to do that he has not already done.

I wonder about front office aggressiveness because you cover a team now that has been aggressive with trades and you obviously covered the bills who have done the same and gone out and take those big swings. And I'm wondering if you think that the chief success and the fact that there is something to chase has made teams more aggressive, I wouldn't use the word desperate

because they're doing what they need to do. Stefan Diggs trade was not desperate. Getting, you know, the dolphins trade maneuver in the draft was not desperate and was pretty smart. And maybe you criticized their second trade with the Eagles, but that's kind of a separate deal. Do you think that this sort of jockeying in the AFC, Marcel, is making teams more aggressive?

I mean, I think so. I think it establishes kind of a sense of urgency now because the chiefs are on the verge of the dynasty. I mean, would you call three straight AFC title games a dynasty yet? I'm not sure. Maybe you've got to win more Super Bowls in order to get that deal. A qualified dynasty. A burgeoning dynasty.

It's a budding dynasty. That's the word. Budding dynasty here. So yeah, I think there is kind of a sense of urgency to nip it in the butt right now. But I think it's just the team's not wanting to lose, man. This league, you know, it's kind of funny

when you said, you call me the longtime Bill's reporter, it kind of is, it feels like a long time in this league. Two years feels like a long time. Just like two years of not making the playoffs. establishes a sense of urgency in year three to make the playoffs. That's what I think Brian Flores is dealing with here in Miami. After missing out by one game last year, we don't even need to bring that up.

I'm sure the Dolphins already remember what happened. But after missing and winning 10 games, you have to win. You have to make playoffs. You have to maybe even win a game this year in order to keep that momentum going, what you're building in South Florida. So I don't know if it's necessarily the chief. putting their thumb down and putting pressure on everybody,

but it does establish kind of a sense of urgency to start winning a little bit now. All right, let's get dorky here, Sheel. So there was a blueprint that was shown to the world on how to beat the chiefs. The problem with that blueprint is, A, it revolves around an offensive line being completely barren, essentially. It revolves around things we already knew.

I mean, like, it is so funny to me. I talk to people about this around the league all the time. It's so funny to me. the narrative, oh, well, you just get four guys to pressure Patrick Mahomes. And then, yeah, no shit. Everybody's trying to get four guys to, you know what? They love three guys to pressure Patrick Mahomes and drop eight guys back. I mean, it's just ridiculous that people think that that is the cheat code when, A,

the chiefs have gotten their offensive line together. And B, that's just what teams are trying to do anyway. Todd Bulls not invent anything. They just executed it very well. He abandoned some of his more core blitz principles. and he was an incredible, he had an incredible game plan for that game. It might not be repeatable with that specifically.

Is there a scheme, Sheel, to stop the Chief's offense on a relative basis? Yeah, no, I'm with you on the blueprint thing. Yeah, just go injure their entire offensive line before the game. And I swear you'll have a great chance to slow them down, which they, of course, address this all season. I mean, I think, you know, the thing that I think you have to do is not do one thing. I mean, it sounds stupid.

It sounds simple. You can't have a static defense. You've got to have disguise before the snap. You've got to muddy the picture for Patrick Mahomes. Like you said, with Todd Bowles, don't just do what is on film. You know, break something out that maybe has not been on film, that you have two weeks to play on that you can incorporate into the playbook. You really just have to steal plays and steal possessions.

I mean, you're not going to like Patrick Mahomes, it's highly unlikely that he's going to average like six yards per attempt and you're going to force like, you know, four, three and outs against them. To me, it's more about, all right, where can you steal a possession? Where can you steal a point? So to me, I would dare them to run the ball. You know, the bills, I think it was last year that regular season game, right, where Clyde Edwards-Hillair went off on the bills and the bills lost.

But I was like, great approach. If you can force Andy Reed to get the ball out of Patrick Mahomes' hands and hand it to Clyde Edwards-Hillair 25 times in a game, you know what? I'll live with that. You might get gashed. Maybe you can come up with ways to hold up better. up front, but like, that's what you want to do. So I think play with two deep

safeties as much as possible, a lot of disguise before the snap and just make them work for it. I mean, can they put together eight, nine, eleven play drives? Yes, they can, but when you're putting together that many plays, there's always that chance that you have a false start, that, you know, the left tackle gets beat on that one play, that you get a deflection at the line of scrimmage. And so I think that's the approach. It's not always going to work. I mean, you can say that. And then all of a sudden, they string together six, ten play drives and they put 42 points on the board and you say, well, that was a stupid strategy. But it's still the only way to play is to try to take away those big plays from Tyree Kill

and Travis Kelsey, of course, way, way, way easier said than done. Okay. So I'm going to get you guys out of here on a big broad question. If you got to take your salary and bet it on the chiefs in the AFC or the field, you are taking what shield? I'm taking the chief. You know, may I usually like to do the math on this. I wanted to get my calculator out. Look at the biggest lines.

Wait, is this stupid or not? But I guess I'll just go with gut reactions like NFL coaches on 4th down and just my gut said, I would rather just have the chiefs. I mean, it's like Marcel said. If Mahomes is healthy, as much of a lock as there is to be playing on championship weekend. And there you're one game away. So I don't think you can say that really about any other team. You're just thanking on the quarterback staying healthy.

And that's the case for every other team. so I will take the chiefs over the field. Marcel, you got to buy a Miami condo down there. You got to deal with South Florida real estate prices. This is a big decision for you, buddy. I was about saying, I can't afford to take risks here, man. I got to also take the chiefs. I can't even pretend to take the field right now just for arguments.

They're too complete. They're too good at their best. And like Sheel said, you know, if you're relying on, you know, the quarterback not being healthy in order to have your best shot at taking them down, the quarterback wasn't healthy and the Browns still couldn't take them down, man. So it is really hard to bet against Kansas City Chiefs right now.

The only saving grace that Field has is that this is not a serial league, you know, this isn't a best of three, a best of five or anything. You only have to be better than them one day. And anybody can be better than anyone

else on any given Sunday or Saturday, depending on when the game is. So that's really the chance that the field has is that, you know, you might catch them on an off date. You're just not going to have to beat them three times in a row. But beyond that, man, no, man, you've seen these Miami prices down here. I'll be living in a box right outside of Hard Rock Stadium about that the field. That is one thing. When I talked to Veach a couple weeks ago, he actually said no one realizes how bad the toe injury was last year. And that there were, after it got fixed, there were some

team doctors who were essentially, or outside doctors saying, I don't know how he was even playing, because that that toe injury was so bad. And so I think people don't realize that they were kind of running on fumes a little bit at the end there and they still made the Super Bowl. So I'm with you. I'll take the Chiefs. I'm willing, as the season goes,

I'm willing to change with the information. But right now, it's the Chiefs. Marcel, She'll follow them. They're both amazing. Thank you guys so much for joining us. Thanks for having me. All right. Thanks for joining us to Marcel, Sheel, Eric, and Nate.

Next up on his feed, Mallory, Rubin. and Nora Princeati are going to be talking about Aaron Rogers. A couple of things on the docket. I'll be on Rusillo on Friday. We're going to talk some Thursday night football between the Bucks and the Cowboys and maybe go abroad a little bit. And on Sunday night, we will be back. Nora Princiotti and I will be the host of the Sunday night show.

Ben Solac will be joining us. Stephen Ruiz will make an appearance, do something really cool. It's going to be really fun. Two slow news days this week. One of them is with the aforementioned Ryan Rusillo. He talks about his kitchen. He talks about Mac Jones. He talks about Russian literature for a while,

just powerhouse appearance. And then we have a second one. I have not recorded with one of the defining quarterbacks of his generation. So I'm not going to say who it is until the butt is in the seat. But hopefully we get that out by the time you guys hear this. This has been the Ring NFL show on the Ringer podcast network.