The Ringer NFL Show - Who Has the Most at Stake for Week 18? | Dual Threat

Episode Date: January 4, 2024

Nora Princiotti and Steven Ruiz return to discuss which teams, players, and coaches have the most at stake for the final week of the 2023-24 season. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more, or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Nora Princiotti and Steven Ruiz Producer: Stefan Anderson Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Social: Kiera Givens and Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, everyone. This is Craig Horlebeck from the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. Join me, Danny Hifetz and Danny Kelly every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday to help you win your draft, win your league, and most importantly, avoid that last place punishment. Follow the Ringer Fantasy Football Show on Spotify. Hello, and welcome to Doolfret. I'm Rampi. And I'm Stephen Ruiz. And it is almost week 18. I suppose it's week 18 already. And the last games that will decide the playoff picture are about to. be played in just a few days.

We're going to talk today about who's got the most at stake. Just to set the scene, in the AFC, four teams of clinched playoff spots. That's the Ravens, the Dolphins, the Chiefs, and the Browns. There are three spots remaining up for grabs. That's the Bills, the Texans, the

Colts, the Jaguars, and the Steelers, who are the five teams in the running for those three spots. And then in the NFC, five teams have clinched the 49ers, Lions, Cowboys, Rans, and Eagles are in. Two spots are still up for grabs.

Falcons, Packers, Vikings, Saints, Bucks, and Seahawks are still fighting it out for those last two spots. So only two of those sifts are going to end up in the ultimate playoff picture. Obviously, there's also seating that is up for grabs in week 18 as well, some of the draft stuff. So we thought that we would each bring a list of five teams, coaches, players, whatever, entities who have a lot on the line. And we are not necessarily ranking them, but we're just going to go through share our lists and talk about who's got the biggest of the big games coming up on Saturday or Sunday. So, Stephen, do you want to start and give your first team, player, whatever, with a lot at stake in week 18? Yeah, I'm going to start with the biggest game of the week. That's Dolphins Bills.

And my pick is to a tag of I low. I think more so than even the Dolphins or the bills who could miss the playoffs if they lose this game and the Steelers win. I think he has the most at stake in terms of like contract negotiations in the offseason. I think one of the big narratives with him has been his performance. in big games and in big spots. And even before Mike McDaniel got there, he played two late season games with the playoffs on the line,

and he laid eggs in both of those performances. So I think this is a big one for him. I think he checked one box off this season by being able to stay healthy all 17 games, which is something that I don't think either of us was predicting with any confidence before the season. I think that's going to go a big way in him getting a bigger contract from Miami this offseason.

But I also think he needs to win one of these games. He needs to win one of these big games. with playoff implications on the line and going up against another quarterback who makes the type of money that Tua is going to want to make in the offseason in Josh Allen. Like beating the Cowboys at home I think was a big step for him,

but this is the game. If he loses this one, I think all of the goodwill he got from that performance just completely goes out the window. And then if he follows that up with like a no-show in the playoffs, I think the conversation goes from how much money are the Dolphins going to commit to him to, are the dolphins even going to commit to him? So a silver lining, if you can call it that,

if we're talking about how to, in order to get there and to get the dolphins there, is going to have to have a statement game against one of the quarterbacks who he sort of wants to belong in the same tier with. And this is why this game is definitely on my list as well. The winner of Bill's Dolphins is going to wind up with a two-seed

and is probably going to play the second place AFC South team at home. Depending on who that is, that could be an interesting matchup. I think the Texans, especially with CJ Stroud, they're not the team they were at the middle of the year when they had, you know, Nico Collins were a more complete team. But still, Stroud does seem special.

You can get into a matchup like that. I don't think it's going to be a total cupcake walk. However, you feel pretty good there. Right? The number six seed, the loser of this game, has to go on the road to play the Chiefs. So if you're two on, I said there was a silver lining, I suppose you could say that he'll have two bites at the apple. But neither of them looks particularly appetizing because, you know, I've been off the Chiefs for quite some time. I don't think they can win the Super Bowl. I think that is completely detached and different from whether or not they're going to tear them. terrified the loser of this game.

Both quarterbacks who have some baggage wrapped up in playing big games against Patrick Mahomes and big games against the Chiefs. Do you think, like, if they, I mean, if the Dolvins were to lose this game and then they went and had a big win against the Chiefs and Tuel looked really good and played well against that Chiefs defense, which I do think would be meaningful. sort of narrative-wise, I think the matchup against Mahomes would get a lot of attention. I suppose that would probably, that would count two. It just doesn't seem particularly likely. So I agree with you. That's a tough, it's a tough setup either way. I chose this game.

I just put, I put the loser has the most, you know, this matchup has the most at stake, just because I think it's not just the seating implications. almost couldn't be more challenging for whoever ends up on the losing end of this game. Because it could be a pretty close game. I think these teams are pretty evenly matched. But you really, really, really want to win this one because I would much rather be more than in other circumstances in the position of the two-seed versus the six-seed,

given the Kansas City factor. Yeah, but if I'm Buffalo, I feel a little bit more comfortable going into that environment, which they've won in before plenty of times, and they've flat out outplayed the chiefs in that stadium.

I would be more comfortable. I feel like if the dolphins go there, that's a bad matchup in a bad environment and maybe bad weather, which I think would disrupt their offense. I don't know. That would be rough for them.

I think it's more of a death sentence for Miami than the bills who, like, I think the bills are a better team on paper than, the Chiefs are. I think that that's the same for the Dolphins, but I would pick the Chiefs in that

game. And I don't know if I would pick the Chiefs against Buffalo if they played. Yeah, I probably wouldn't. And Buffalo, you are right. There's something about Buffalo where they're sort of better if they're left for dead in some ways. Like, it doesn't matter. What influences the bills on a day-to-day

basis is like between Josh Allen and God. Like, it's not about, where you are. It's not about going to Kansas. They don't care about going to... I think they do care about it a little bit just because of the history, but they don't care about weather or situation or stuff like that.

Right. So I think you're right. I think we can say that the Dolphins and Tua specifically. Imagine being Tui. You're starting your first playoff game ever and you have a choice. Spags on the road or a Gus Bradley defense at home. I know which one I'm taking. Yeah, I think that's fair. I think he would

but unfortunately, that's not how I would pick it to work out. You had had a little bit of faith in Miami in this matchup. Are you still feeling that way? Or sounds like maybe softening a little bit on Two in the Dolphins, anything there? I think I'm softening a little bit after watching the tape from the Ravens game. And I wrote about the Dolphins this week. And that created more questions than answers for me, especially with Tua's performance.

it tends to get worse over time. Like at any level you look at it, like over the course of a season, he's better in September than he is December. Even if you take out away game, so it's not like bad weather confounding the results, the dolphins get worse over time, like from September to December.

If you look at within games, like from the first quarter to the fourth quarter, his numbers go down. If you look at it like on the snap level, when he throws it early, he's one of the best quarterbacks in the league. When he holds on to the ball, he's one of the worst quarterbacks in the league.

I think that's what concerns me. I think Buffalo is a team that has seen them enough and knows what spots they like to get to. They don't have, they're not going to have to have that feeling out process we talked about with Baltimore. When we saw them have success on the opening script, I don't know if that's going to be the same situation when Buffalo plays them.

That's what has me worried. I think Miami's defense will have a chance against Buffalo's offense, worried about the other side of the ball. I think that familiarity is going to be a really interesting factor. And it's still, the opening script is still a factor, right? And like what Mike McDaniel can do there is a different factor than has Buffalo's defense adjusted to Miami's overall tempo and just the speed with which their offense operates.

Those are separate factors. They might be a little bit hard to separate out in terms of what we're watching, but the first drive when the dolphins have the ball is going to be really interesting just because this Bill's defense does have so much familiarity with them. And it seems like something that can really hurt Miami. All right. So I had Bill's Dolphins. I had the dolphins on my list as well.

But I'll give you the one that I put first. And, you know, the stakes for NFL owners tend to be pretty low. They're up on high. but I put Robert Kraft on the list because I think he's in a really interesting position going into week 18. Because right now the commanders are still in possession of the number two overall draft spot. But if the Patriots lose to the Jets, even if the commanders lose to the Cowboys, there is a pretty good chance that the strength of schedule still flips in favor of New England. England and New England ends up with the number two pick in the draft. The interesting thing there is that, okay, commanders, cowboys, the cowboys still have something

to play for. I don't think Washington's got a very good chance of winning that game. On the other hand, the Patriots are playing the Jets. And you've got Bill Belichick, who is coaching a team that has every incentive to not win the game. but Bill Belichick might not be the coach of the team next year. I don't think he's going to be. And Bill Belichick hates the Jets. You think Bill Belichick is going to help the Patriots out,

throw the Patriots a bone by helping them lose to the New York Jets as a lame duck coach so that they can draft Drake May and maybe be more likely to win a bunch of games without him, instead of saying like, congratulations, here's Marvin Harrison Jr. Like, wouldn't it be nice if you had a quarterback to throw to him? But see you later. I'm going to go coach the charters.

I don't think he's going to do it. And I mean, I don't know what Robert Croft can do about it. But if there's any way to navigate that situation, to try to find some way to telegraph or, and you know, he can't outright say it, right, because that's tanking and that's illegal. but whatever, you know, manifestation or like hope beyond hope or spidey signaling that he can do to try to get everybody on the same page here is going to have a massive impact on the future of the Patriots organization. And there's obviously some variability in terms of other former opponents' results in Week 18

could influence the strength of schedule either way because it is literally so razor-thin. But the fact that a really significant outcome for New England for the future is significantly dependent. is significantly dependent on Bill Belichick being able to do the thing that would help a team that he's probably not going to be coaching and would also require him to lose to the New York Jets on purpose or like a little bit on purpose is not a position I would want to be in.

So I would say that the stakes of that are pretty high. Yeah, I would say for like the entire league because I have a question for you. In your opinion, does, New England locking down the second pick and presumably a chance to draft Drake May. Maybe it's Caleb Williams. But a chance at one of those blue chip quarterbacks,

does that increase Belichick's chances of coming back next year or does that decrease the chances of him coming back next year? Oh, I think, I mean, I think he's not coming back next year, kind of point blank. I suppose... That has to change something. I feel like that changes the direction of the franchise over the next couple years.

Here's the thing is that I think the argument the argument works against him both ways because this clearly isn't working but also based on what's happened and based on how he has coached this team which is young and mistake prone in a lot of ways the last thing I want to do is have this guy

be entrusted with a, young potential franchise quarterback. Now, it's going to be Apple's oranges with Mac Jones, right? Because some of that had to do with the player that they drafted. But I really do think that the way that Belichick has coached this year has shown how his impatience with players who have a lot to learn is really detrimental to development. So I would just, I guess I'm saying that if you do get a blue chip quarterback problem, I think that means you have to start over with a new coach just because that asset is too

valuable to play to sort of play with fire with. Whereas if they don't get one of the top two picks, don't get the number two pick, who knows what you're doing next year, right? Like, is it a bridge guy? Is it something weird and funky? And then maybe you're trying to win defensively and the defensive of results have been better towards the end of the season. And I suppose maybe you make the argument that, you know, it's not a whole refresh. So maybe you're just giving him one more year, essentially. So I guess that's the scenario in which I think it's more likely he keeps the job. Whereas if you're drafting a young quarterback, you do a whole franchise reset.

But it's, I don't think he's sticking around either way. No. Yeah. I think if you asked me this like five weeks ago after they lost to the Chargers, to nothing, I would say that them getting that pick would increase the chances that he leaves. Because I would agree, I wouldn't want him around a young team that needs to be developed. But I do think over the last couple of weeks, you've kind of seen the payoff for the growing pains they went through over the first couple of months.

Those young players are starting to contribute to wins. And I think the last month kind of shows that Mack Jones maybe played a bigger role. in the regression of the offense than we'd like to give him credit for. I think Matt Patricia has gotten a lot of that blame. And this year, nothing has changed. And Bailey Zappi looks better than Mack Jones for a second straight year. So I don't know. I think that changes the conversation a little bit, the last four weeks.

I don't think it's enough, but I hear you. All right. Do you want to do a second one since Bill's Dolphins is on my list as well? Yeah, my game is kind of related to that. And that's Washington, Dallas. And I know like we kind of dismissed the idea that Washington could win this game because Dallas is motivated. But I will remind you last year, at the end of the year, Dallas looked just as good as they did this year. And Washington looked just as bad.

And they were in the same spot late in the year. And we saw the worst performance out of Dallas's offense. And we know that on the road, they are liable to lay an egg. And this game like has the most ramifications because it not only affects the draft order, but it affects the seating order in the NFC. I think it dictates matchups. It's going to dictate the matchup in the NFC title game. Because the team that loses this game,

let's presume they win their wildcard game, get San Francisco. And I think whichever of these teams gets San Francisco loses. The Washington thing is so, it's really, this is an interesting matchup, because especially in the case of Dallas, I do still think there's a, you know, this has been my conspiracy theory,

but I do still think that there's an outside chance that Mike McCarthy gets fired if the Cowboys just absolutely crash and burn. And the obviously more relevant piece of that is in the playoffs. But if they lose this game, that makes the road all that more challenging and more likely that they absolutely flame out. And the funny thing is that, again, this is sort of my conspiracy theory, but it comes back around to the Patriots angle because I just think that there is some world

in which Jerry Jones gets an idea that he can get Bill Belichick, who's the type of just like big old school name that Jerry Jones is just crazy enough to fall in love with. And the last month of the Patriot season does make it easier to sell it. And then all of a sudden, we're in this crazy world where

the Cowboys have lost in Week 18, gotten booted in the first round of the playoffs. McCarthy gets fired. Belichick gets fired. All of a sudden, Bill Belichick is the head coach of the Dallas Cowboys. Like, chaos reigns. And that's not to mention the implications for the draft pick,

which obviously we talked about. The commanders have a lot to lose if this goes haywire. because the Patriots, if you drop a young promising quarterback into that team, and, you know, it's probably Drake May, you're right to point out, could be Caleb Williams. I suppose it could be someone else, but probably not. If the player, whoever it is, ends up being similar to what teams hope, New England is an okay landing spot, I think, just because the defense is good,

but in terms of the offensive talent overall, it's not a great offensive line. The skill position group is probably not as bad as we act like they are, but it's still not great. Whereas Washington, there's some good players there. And, you know, it's a long tortured franchise, but you did just have this sort of whole reset with the end of the Snyder era.

there's probably an opportunity that it seems like they're going to take to choose whatever coach they would want to shepherd the era with the young quarterback,

whoever he is in there. But they could still blow it by winning in week 18 and then all of a sudden it's like, oh, you have some good receivers, but how about another one? Or how about another defensive lineman? You guys love those in the draft.

and it's just like you should normally feel so excited about getting to draft a player like that, and it would be so deflating and sad. I will say this, though. I think the same situation applies to Washington that applies to New England, where you have a coach who might want to win out of spite, because I think Ron Rivera reads the writing on the wall. Like with the Sam Howell benching or whatever it is, I don't know what you want to call it, on and off again.

I think that ended any chance he had of getting the job next year. And now I question whether Eric B. Enemy, who presumably was next in line for that job when Rivera retired, I don't know if he's going to be in line for that job either. He might have to fight for that job now. At least with the enemy, though, there is like, he's definitely a contender for it. So, I mean, again, you're not allowed to go into the meeting and say, we're going to lose the game. But like, it's harder for there to be a wink, wink. What if we just sat the starters at half time? Well, that's the beauty of Washington is that their... Who are the starters? Right, their worst quarterback is the one starting the game every week. So it works backwards for them. I don't know. I think there's a chance that they...

Let's say they pull off the upset like they did last year. Let me remind you, the same situation happened last year. I don't think it's like a conspiracy or tinfoil hat thing to suggest that Jerry Jones would think about firing Mike McCarthy. like if he looks at the situation this year with the Eagles, it was a worst case scenario with the Eagles. They regressed in places they couldn't progress in. And if they still end up winning the division, I look at Mike McCarthy.

I'm like, I gave you everything. Like this team I gave you is just as talented as the team in Philadelphia. Their coaching staff did not do a good job in Philadelphia this year, as evidenced by them switching to Matt Patricia. And then Brian Johnson has been the villain. in Philadelphia this year. I think he looks at the coaching job and says this was not good enough and moves off, especially if Belichick is out there.

I mean, can you imagine that day on the internet and on all the shows, just the takes would be absolutely flying. I'm almost a little bit afraid of it. Why don't I add, in that case, let's add McCarthy to the mix. For my next one, I'm going to give you three names. Okay. And you tell me who you think has the most to lose. So let's make McCarthy the first one.

The second one, I'll give you Doug Peterson. So the Jags are win and in against the Titans, but Trevor Lawrence is banged up. He did practice on Wednesday, but he's got a shoulder injury. He's got a finger injury. if the Jaguars lose, I think there are some, no, if they lose they're out,

and they'll finish 9 and 8, miss the playoffs. And that'll have been with not a perfectly healthy team, but not with a team that's dealt with, like a completely outsized amount of injuries relative to some of the other teams that have managed to keep going. And that'll be two years after they spent 150 million guaranteed in free agency to build the team that was sort of like, this is the last version

where we get to take advantage of the Trevor Lawrence rookie contract. He's probably going to get an extension this offseason now that he'll be eligible for it. And the days of him being cheap are, they've got one more year of it, basically, but it's ending.

And this year has not been inspiring, but that is a 50 plus million dollar year quarterback. And if you're looking at the results under Doug Peterson, who did an absolutely bang-up job salvaging the wreckage of the Urban Meyer era, it's leaving a lot to be desired. So Doug Peterson, if the Jaguars lose and miss the playoffs. The other one is Nick Siriani.

If the Eagles just like really flame-out, out in some way, right? We're coming off a week where there's this big story about A.J. Brown has to insist that he's not mad at Nick Seriani and he's not yelling about the play calling. He's just upset about the results.

But if the Eagles lose to the Giants, let's say, and it sounds maybe a little far-fetched, but I'm not so sure it is. They are a more aggressive offensive team with Terad Taylor in there, and this Eagles defense cannot stop anyone. The Giants' defense,

just gave Matt Stafford and the Rams some trouble. I don't think it's out of the question. Philly would head into the playoffs as the five seed. They'd play the NFC South winner at home. Then you end the season just getting torched by Baker Mayf. Like, I don't feel good about who's coaching the team in that situation. So McCarthy, Peterson, Siriani. Who do you think is the most vulnerable

of those three to just an absolute flame out, whatever that looks like in the various situations. I would say Siriani. I think that's the most realistic one compared between him and Mike McCarthy. I think you have the wrong name if Jacksonville loses. I don't think it falls on Doug Peterson. I think it falls on Trent Balke because he was the one holdover from the Urban Meyer era. And then honestly, just look at his finger.

He has a ring on his finger. And Siriani doesn't. And I think that separates those two. And the Jaguars are a desperate franchise with no Super Bowl titles. I think that makes a difference too. I think when you have Super Bowl titles in your recent history, it's easier to move on from a coach who has had success, as evidenced by Philadelphia, quickly moving on from Doug Peterson as soon as that went south. Sure. So I would say Siriani.

And I think that's a discussion worth having, especially I just don't think you can ignore the success that as former coordinators are having elsewhere, including Gannon, who. just beat him and outcoached him at home in a big spot in a game they needed to win that a lot of people were watching that's a tough look so you think seriani and then who would be number two i agree with your point about trent balky i just think trin balky is like like the world will end in fire and fury and it's going to be like trin balky and the cockroaches just like scampering around there i i just somehow he manages i don't know if i If I lose that game, and I'm Doug Peterson, I'm slipping a photo of Urban Meyer and Trent Balky together

under the door of the owner. I'm just saying, remember, these guys used to work together. I'm the one that had to come in and save this thing, not these guys. Right, right. That's what I would do. I don't know. But I, like, if the Cowboys lose. And then another photo of him holding the Lombardi trophy, maybe.

That's right. And also as a gentle reminder. With Nick Foles, who didn't work out in Jacksonville. But if the Cowboys lose, McCarthy's the answer, right? I just don't think they're going to lose. But if they lose, Cherry Jones will lose his mind.

Right. And that's a mind that he's lost many times. The only other one, this is sort of, I almost included Matt Eberfluse on the list, but that's like the inverse, where he was gone. And then the last month or so

makes you start to think like, oh, is he making, sort of a case that maybe it's maybe he's coaching him up maybe it's not so bad but that's sort of the I mean first of all they've already locked up the number one pick the results um at least in terms of objective meaning do not matter and he's more it's I think it's I think it's still his job to regain as opposed to some of these other guys who if it goes really bad they could lose it, but I think his situation is sort of the inverse. That was another game on my list, so we can move on to that one if you want.

Because I think, like, for Jordan Love, I think this is a huge game. I think he has the job next year locked down no matter what. But I think if he wins this game and they make the playoffs and he ends the season like he ended it, it goes from, oh, he's the starter next year to, okay, it's time to pay me now. Because I only have one year left on my deal. and it's not a good deal right now for me. I think it's going to get tense in the offseason because it's going to be hard to give him a lot of money,

but it's also going to be hard to let him walk because we see the talent on tape. And then if he has the results to back it up, the playoff appearance, it gets tough. Well, so it gets extra tricky for Green Bay. And I had Jordan Love on my list as well because either way, or not either way, but in a lot of situations,

if the Packers win this game against the Bears, because they're winning in for the playoffs. He's going to make a lot of money based off of this, because first of all, he has several million dollars worth in escalators in his contract that are contingent on making the playoffs. And if he does, then there's opportunities for even more and all of that. So even this one win would be very beneficial to him financially. but second of all, and I think this is the bigger piece of it,

like you said, if he really proves himself in this spot and if the Packers go out on a high note and they get to feel good about they made the playoffs and Aaron Rogers didn't and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, and all that stuff, he definitely is going to need a new deal this offseason so that he doesn't go into basically a lame duck year. But the problem for Green Bay is,

they can't touch it until May because there's a rule that you can't do two extensions within 12 months. And so there's a solid chance that that means guys like Baker Mayfield and Kurt Cousins are going to change teams or have newly structured deals that set precedents that would help Jordan Love before the Packers have an opportunity to do anything. So the absolute bottom, I think, that we're talking about here is like a Daniel Jones type situation, maybe something shorter term. But if Daniel Jones is getting four years and $160 million, I think you have to talk about Jordan Love getting something, maybe not that length, but at that type of scale, especially when there's going to be a Baker deal somewhere, a Kirk situation somewhere. and those those are probably going to be deals that push an arrow that's relevant to Jordan Love

up. So I don't think I'm not of the opinion that this is really that tricky for the Packers. I think he has looked good enough that, you know, maybe you try in the negotiation

to avoid doing something like the four-year deal that the Giants did with Daniel Jones. You try to make it a little bit shorter term. But I think you have to really like that you've seen from Jordan Love and feel confident and convicted that you can sign this guy to a pretty decent extension. But the numbers are going to be bigger than we think they're going to be. And part of that's because Love's done a really good job, but also part of that is just because the specific situation he's in is going to be.

is going to be one where there's a lot of things that he can point to that his agents can point to and say, well, this guy already got this. So I should get this. And I just wonder if people are going to end up being surprised by it, even though I think he's totally earned it. One of those quarterbacks who could be getting a deal and like kind of pushing negotiations for love is Tua.

And I do wonder if Tua has the type of game that we were worrying about. He has a stinker against Buffalo and he comes out against Kansas City. and has, I would say, like, a game like he had against Kansas City earlier in the year where they score like 14 points and he looks a little shaky, but it's not a total disaster. And then you have Jordan Love who finishes the season making the playoffs and then kind of has a Daniel Jones-esque run through the playoffs where he wins the first game, looks a little

helpless in the second game against a better opponent. Which quarterback are you more comfortable signing? Like you have Tua who has back-to-back years where he put up numbers that got him MVP consideration. And then you have Jordan Love who has like a month of really impressive play mixed with a couple months of uneven play mixed with three years of not even seeing this guy play. Oh, it's really hard.

It's a really hard question. I think I'm more comfortable with love. I think Love has shown that he can perform in an offense when the structure is not perfect. Yeah. In the way that it seems like it needs to be in Miami for, for everything to function as they want it to there. Yeah. But it's not an easy call just because the sample sizes are so different.

And the volume, I don't, I think it's probably overrated, but it doesn't mean that it's irrelevant. Yeah. I would also say like, I don't know. I think with Tua, we've seen these high moments and we've seen the numbers over the course of the season. But I feel like we've seen a lot more failures. And we haven't seen Jordan Love even get a chance to fail on a big stage at this point. So that narrative hasn't been set.

So I do think like the conversation, even though it seems ridiculous, that you would even consider a quarterback with like, like I said, like five good starts compared to a guy with two back-to-back prolific seasons. but man, like, it just feels like that's the smarter decision if that's how. And the arrows are just pointing in such different directions because love has so clearly gotten better. And, you know, as our colleague, Shield Capadio loves to say, like, improvement is not linear. It's not been every single game he looks better than the last. But overall, he just seems. to be learning and improving and developing chemistry with those receivers at a rate that's pretty significant. Whereas with Tua, it seems like the more tape and experience that NFL defenses

get playing him, and also the more hits that he takes, the more hits that the receivers in that offense have to take because of how much they use the middle of the field, the less powerful they are as a unit and the less successful he is as a quarterback. So it seems like the arrow there, you know, it's not pointing directly down, right? Like this is a playoff team and it wouldn't be crazy if, you know, at one point this season, I felt like they were a really compelling Super Bowl contender. It wouldn't be crazy if they went on a run. But it does kind of feel like the arrow there is is pointing a little bit down. Whereas with love, it's very, very cool. clearly pointing up.

So maybe that's recency bias, but I think that's a big part of it. Yeah, just so like Dolphins fans don't jump down our throats. I don't think it's necessarily that Tua needs a perfect environment. I think he needs an environment that's like perfect

for him. Whereas Jordan Love, I think, has proven this year that he can he could thrive at times an offense that isn't built for him. I don't think this is the offense I would build if I was building an offense for Jordan

love and his skill set. I do think, like, the Miami offense is the perfect offense for Tua skill set. It takes advantage of things he does so well, like getting rid of the ball quickly, anticipation and all that stuff. I do think that's fair to say because we have seen to deal with some adversity. Like, his offense blind hasn't always been the best. He has dealt with receiver injuries this year, and he still played well. So I just wanted to clear that point out because I do think Dolphins fans would take exception

to him, like, needing perfect, a perfect environment around him. Yeah, that was my word and it was a bad choice of words in this case, but I think that's right. Is there some chance that we're like hyping up Jordan Love, hyping up the backers here, and then the bears are just going to be like, oh, Joe Barry, don't mind if I do. Yeah, there's a very good chance. I'm not confident that Green Bay is going to win this game. And it's partly because what Matt Everflus has done for that defense, this is the best defense since the Montez Sweat trade. just across the board in every advanced metric. It's the best defense.

And that's why I think this is such a big test. Do you think that there's something, they're sort of like an analytic starling in that way? And I'm not arguing that they're not a good defense. They're clearly a very good defense. Do you think the eye test backs that up? I have a hard time saying that this is a better defense than like the Ravens defense. No, yeah, I agree with that.

I don't think it's a better. I think it's been playing better. It's had an easier schedule. And I think. But I do think this formula tends to give any offense problems, like being able to rush for and play zone defense behind it, that's like the formula for any good defense. And it's going to give Green Bay a test.

And it's going to give Jordan Love a test that the kind of test that I don't know if he's passed. Like we've seen him against the Blitz. We've seen him kill the Blitz, but against these conservative looks, we've seen him have more trouble. So this is a chance for him to show something he hasn't shown yet on a big stage. I like it. All right. So I'll give you another one.

And this is sort of in some ways I'm being really terrible here because this is almost the end to this is of this exercise. But this is my sort of like playing with house money, but the stakes are positive but still their category. Because I want to talk about Texans Colts. And the stakes for Houston, I would not say are high in the sense that, you know, they lose this game. they miss the playoffs. No one's losing a job. Overall, you still feel great about the season, excited about the direction of the franchise,

excited about Damiko, excited about Stroud, excited about the young team there. But if they win, they make the playoffs. Could even be the four seed if the Jaguars lose to the Titans, which, I mean,

I feel like I've got to count on Trevor Lawrence to be able to get it together and get that team to beat a Tennessee team that has nothing to play for. And yet I'm just sort of not confident in anything that has to do with them at this point.

The way that it will buy Stroud and D'Amico just like room to breathe and to relax long term as that team will inevitably go through some form of growing pains. They have a lot of young players. I just think it's so valuable

that it felt worth pointing out and there's a version of that for the Colts too. It's a little bit different just because Richardson, who is the future of the team at quarterback is not in the game. But there's a version of it for the Colts too. I think it's more relevant for the Texans. That I do think pays dividends down the line because it's the type of thing that owners pay attention

too. It's also, look, it's objectively a high stakes game just because the winner of that division is so up for grabs that we're not just talking about who gets into the wild card. We're talking about who's going to be the four seed. And now obviously Jacksonville has the inside track and they have, as we talked about in the Doug Peterson conversation, they certainly have a lot on the line there too because I don't think that them losing to Tennessee is as far outside of the realm of possibility as it feels like it should be.

But there's just a lot to gain for Houston, I think. And I think this has the potential to change the playoffs in the IFC, like not just who's in the field, obviously, but if it's the Texans in that seventh seed, I would be scared as shit

whoever I am in the second seat. Yeah. Like, that's a tough game. If I get Gardner Minchew, that's a different story. I'd like, I'm very impressed by what Shane Steichen has done, in part because that team is not very impressive on paper. The Texans at times have looked like a team that can compete with the best teams in the NFL. We saw them destroy Jacksonville.

We saw them push Baltimore in week one. Baltimore ended up winning that game by multiple scores, but that was not an easy game for Baltimore. And C.J. Stroud looked impressive in the second half. More impressive in the second half than you did in the first half against the best defense in the NFL at adjusting. That's very impressive. So we saw them beat the Bengals with Joe Burrow

when people were talking about the Bengals as a possible Super Bowl contender or sleeper. This team is good. They have a high ceiling. So I think this game could lead to an upset. And if the Colts win it, I don't think they're beating whoever the two-seat is. They don't have as much to gain.

We have to entertain that conversation, at least. What do you think about the Jags side of things? I think they're going to win the game. I mean, me too. I just I wish I felt a little better about it Yeah yeah I feel like that's the season right

That's the slogan for the season Right for them Like yeah we're gonna win the AFC South But I wish I would have felt better about it Yeah All right that is my five Have we done all five of yours Or are we missing one?

I have one more Okay And I'll pick a team Because we've talked about The Cardinal side of this game And like what implications are there for their draft pick. The Seattle Seahawks.

I think this game has the potential to alter their offseason. And I think if they make the playoffs, we look back at the season differently than they do. If they don't make the playoffs, even though I don't think it really says anything about the quality

of their performance this year, I think that because it's going to be easy to look at their record and say they regressed after this breakout year we saw in 2022. And I don't think that's true. I think their schedule was just a lot hard.

And like, when you really drill down into their performance on both sides of the ball, I think they were improved on both sides of the ball in certain ways. And there's, they're encouraging things like nailing your first round pick in Witherspoon. That's a big thing. Seeing Gino Smith kind of carry over his performance, maybe not in the numbers, but like on tape, he looks like a better quarterback than he was a year ago. I think it suggests that Pete Carroll has this team going in the right direction if they make the playoffs.

And it's like, oh, we have two back-to-back playoff appearances to show for this. Now, if they make the playoffs in year one of this little rebuild and then miss the playoffs with an 8-9 record and don't make the playoffs and don't even get a chance to win a playoff game, I think Seattle's thinking about moving on from Pete Carroll and possibly Gino Smith. I think that changes the conversation completely in Seattle, even though I don't think it should because I think that making the playoffs doesn't really change anything for the direction of this team. It's also, I mean, do you think that Pete and Gino are kind of a, do you think that they're a pair when it comes to that question? Because the idea that that Gino is the problem is really strange to me. The problem with the Seahawks team is that their defensive line doesn't tackle or get pressure. And there are some schematic choices that they've made that probably don't emphasize the talent that they do have on the roster. I agree with you that the results are not all that different from last season.

But I think the problem is, yes, it's great to hit on your draft picks, obviously, and those players are going to be super helpful long term. But it feels like the players have gotten better and the team has gotten worse. Yeah. But I don't think that that has much to do with Gino. No. But I don't think, like, I think if you move on, from Carol, you have to move on from the quarterback that he kind of picked to lead them into this new

error of the franchise. It's kind of hard to separate those two, in my opinion, just because they're both on the older side for their respective positions. And Gino, you don't have this financial commitment anyway. And I think the takeaway will be, oh, he's not good enough to lead us to a Super Bowl, even if he is good enough to, like, lead us to the playoffs. I wouldn't I would not be so quick to I would want to know what the plan B is at quarterback yeah to just because you can get a lot worse than than the season that Gino Smith has had in Seattle

those fans love Drew Locke that's all I'll say so I think they're more ready to move on from Gino than maybe people outside of the fan base right well all right then I think that's it right we're both five for five. A lot of teams with a lot on the line in week 18. We will, of course, be back on Sunday. We'll get to break it all down. In the meantime, Sheel and Ben will have you covered on extra point taken. This has been dual threat on the ringer NFL show feed. Thank you to Stefan Anderson

for producing this episode. Thank you to Kiar Givins for her work on socials. Thank you to Connor and Evans and our Juno Rambo Paul for their additional production supervision. And we'll be back on Sunday. be 21 plus and present in select states. Fanduel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LSC. Gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler or visit Fanduel.org slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee,

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