The Ringer NFL Show - Who Has the Most at Stake in Each Playoff Game?

Episode Date: January 19, 2022

Kevin, Nora, and Mallory go through each matchup of the divisional round and debate who has the most at stake in each game. Host: Kevin Clark, Nora Princiotti, Mallory Rubin Associate Producer: Stefan Anderson Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I'm Derek Thompson, long-time writer with the Atlantic Magazine on tech, culture, and politics. There is a lot of noise out there, and my goal is to cut through the headlines, loud tweets, and hot takes in my new podcast, plain English. I'll talk to some of the smartest people I know to give you clear viewpoints and memorable takeaways. Plain English starts November 16th. Listen for free on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It is the Ringer NFL show, part of Ringer Podcast Network. I'm Kevin Clark. on a Wednesday morning by Norr Prince Gotti.

Norr what's going on, Bud. It's a divisional round week. Feeling good. Malay Rubens here. What's up, bud? Kev, I'm really blown away by your seating position here on Zoom. Reclining, mic in hand, leaning back on the couch. You have an oceanic vista above you.

It's a painting. Not a window, but still. But, still. But, still. It's a real vibe. Yeah. Not a lot of comfortable seats. available in my father's house

where I am in Orlando. I recently discovered they've built a Publix a couple blocks away. That is across the street from another Publix. That was my morning. We're just taking that in. Orlando is as beautiful as ever. I want to ask you guys an important question

before we get into the topic at hand. Is this your favorite week of football or is it next weekend? It's next weekend. Next weekend feels big. It's got the juice. It's nice to have more games. but there's something about trip to the Super Bowl on the line, BFD kind of stuff.

Now? This weekend. Absolutely. That's correct. You know, I'm a glutton. I love to consume as much as possible at all times. And once we're down to just the championship round, I start to sink into a fit of despair because it feels like it's ending. Everything's still possible right here at this moment of time.

I'd also say the further you get into the playoffs, the, the worst the crowds are. Because, like, it's really the just the diehards in the wild card, not the diehards, but season ticket holders, whatever,

the further you get along. And then it gets to the Super Bowl, and there's a bunch of people who don't care in the stadium, right? So, like, I just feel like this is the pure football weekend. It's wall to wall.

You can't make any other plans. Every team is good, importantly, crucially. Every team is good this weekend. This is the weekend. All right. So we don't have something fun this week. Sad to hear you guys hate the elite.

Remember when the Jaguars made the ATSA title game? Yeah. Bididly. That was the end of that weekend. That weekend is no longer serious. Because of the time the Jaguars almost made the Super Bowl. All right. So what we're doing is the stakes report, basically.

We're going through every game and figuring out who has the most on the line, what it means who can gain the most, who can lose the most. it's going to be a really interesting discussion because it kind of resets what we're talking about when we talk about these games. We're going to go through just game by game via the schedule. Saturdays games, then Sunday's games,

and then we're just going to debate it. We will start with Bengals of Titans 430 on Saturday, Nora start us off. All right. It's the nerds. The nerds have the most at stake. They've got everything on the line in this game.

We have a number one seeded team that most advanced metrics think is downright bad. ESPN's FPI says the Titans are the worst number one seed since at least 2008. Football outsiders thinks they might be the worst number one or number two seed ever. We have the Derek Henry element, which feeds into just about every annoying NFL Twitter conversation known to man. and a Titans team that won 7-1 score games and had the lowest average margin of victory,

that's 3.8 points of any division winner this season. They win. They get to step the nerds in the locker. I'm picking the Bengals. But the nerds have the most on the line this week. Ooh, I did not see that coming, Mal. I think this is clearly somebody who's on Zoom with us right now. Kevin Clark has the most on the line.

What? I have a couple real answers I'm prepared to throw out. Both sides. I have played both sides at the point I cannot lose on this game. Exactly. No, Kevin Clark is anti-nerd.

This is the moment where you were forced at last to pit your bits against each other. These are two of your most cherished claims. On Saturday show, Saturday night's playoff reaction show, you picked the Titans in the moment in the heat of it. based on the vibes, but we need to check in before I am prepared again to give a real answer here. We need to check in with you.

Your beloved Titans, your beloved Bengals. Which side are you going to come down on at last, Kevin Clark? The people need to know. It's still the Titans. It's still the Titans. I can't stake a claim in the Titans. And so they've built something. And they built a culture where they're more often than not going to win and then say,

oh, by the way, they're going to lose in the first round of Zach Taylor. Can't do it. I love, I think Joe Burrow is like a once a franchise prospect, okay, for the bank. It's like that this is going to change everything for them. But I can't be Mr. Titans and say they're going out in the first time. I can't be Mr. Culture and say they're going to lose. Okay. Culture each strategy for breakfast.

Sounds nourishing and fiber rich. Delicious too. Kev, I have two actual answers that I'm torn on. So why don't you go next and I'll pick whichever one you didn't pick and then we can discuss as a group. Zach Taylor? Yeah, that's one of my two contenders here. So Zach Taylor is a bad coach.

Okay. He's a bad coach. And he's not horrible. He doesn't deserve to be fired. But if they lose this game, we're going to start talking about it in the, I'm sorry, not for this year, obviously. We're going into 2022.

There's at least going to be the question of whether or not Joe borough who I think again is a franchise type quarterback super bowl winning quarterback has support he needs now brian callahan is a very good offensive quarterback jack taylor has done enough um the defense has been good there's talent all over the duke to dick doke tobem and mike brown have done their job building the talent to support him early zach taylor is the question if they get to the a fc championship game in their first playoff and i think zach taylor's really connected with the community. You saw him giving out game balls after the game last weekend. He was going different sports bars, I guess. He was in tears after they coined to division.

There's an attitude there, and I think it comes from Burrow that they haven't really done anything. Burrow had to pull last week. This isn't icing on the cake. This is the cake. They were just going to move on. There's something there, but I think this is mostly Burrow. Like Burrow is in charge of the offense, really. I mean, when you talk about Brian Cowan told me they wanted him in Peyton Manning mode. and by the way, Peyton Manning coached himself for 20 years and worked swimmingly. But if they lose this game, there's at least the opening that we had the conversation

in August of next year. Hey, Zach Taylor is on washed watch, whatever you want to call it. Stephen Ruiz will put him on a fraud watch. If they make this AFC championship game. Well, as Ruiz, if you were here, he would say everyone starts on fraud watch and they have to work their way off, right?

So he's not putting anyone on. His man's siding if they get to come off. I think it'd be really hard if they make the AFC title game to even start arguing next year, even if it's a down year, that Zach Taylor is. I'm just talking about from a national perspective

that Zach Taylor is not the guy. This is a huge, huge line of the sand for him. I agree, and I think that's ultimately my pick. Before we talk about Taylor Morris Group, let me just throw out one more possible stakes report contender here and then we can talk about Taylor as a group and make our shared conclusion. This aligns, I think, with what Nora was saying,

about the analytical assessment around this game and these teams. But the Titans as a whole feel like they have quite a bit at stake here because wasting the number one seed, the buy home field in a year when everything went right, even though it shouldn't have for them, in a year when Kansas City didn't get that number one seed, in a year when Buffalo looked like they would, but then couldn't.

In a year when my beloved Baltimore Ravens absolutely collapsed and just disintegrated amid all of them. the injuries when a traditional heavy like New England was down before a potential perennial riser and challenger for that top seat in the future years like the chargers really fully clicked not capitalizing on that would be a potential debacle like they made it to the conference title game under variable two seasons ago lost the wild card round last year so you can look at it a couple different ways few people other than Kevin think that Tennessee is the best team this year as Nora just outlined.

So expectations candidly aren't that high, particularly in the context of a one seat and a one seat that almost blew it against Houston in a highly impactful final week. But Tennessee is also, if you look at it the other way, on a playoff appearance run under variable. And this is the moment to push it through and try to steal that deal. This is less about the expectation of Tennessee winning it all this year, given the talent, respective talent for the roster and the personnel, and more about capitalizing, more about avoiding the kind of missed opportunity that can really linger and haunt a franchise. And fair or not, the prospect of Henry returning does boost those expectations

just a little bit, you know, returning to practicing and pads, decision coming. Losing this, I don't think it's immense anything for Rabel or Robinson, but for this particular Titans group and iteration, If they don't crawl through the window while it's open as a one seed in a year when the perennial one seed contenders around them faltered a bit, that window might just shut. I will say I will push back on one thing because not everything went right for them this season in the sense that Derek Henry, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones played a combined 120 snaps. Not right for them on their roster, right for them in terms of the competition. In the context. That's super fair. But I think that's a. interesting thing to watch because all of those metrics could be right. And then at the same time, we could be overlooking something as simple as just health,

right? Like they, I think, set a record for the most players started in a given season. They'd done that by like 87 or something. Lost 112 games of skill position injuries. Not good. So there could be this big factor where it's sort of an odour. at the same time, I am picking Cincinnati to win here.

I think the Bengals are in a good place despite the fact that going back to the Zach Taylor point, you worry about, you don't worry about what they can do, right? I think they are so fully capable of exposing some of the weak points, particularly in Tennessee's defense. You worry if they will, right? Because you see Zach Taylor cost them points

on a regular basis with the early down runs, with some conservatism when, you know, you feel like, you've got Borough, you've got Chase, just go for it. I hope they will do that. I think if they do, they could pretty easily beat the Titans, but I do want to leave a little bit of room for, look, this team had a lot of context around it go right

so that they could get the number one seed. they did overcome a lot throughout the season which I think feeds into why Kevin talks about culture and toughness and what they were able to do. They're only the one suit. They're only the best team in the AFC. That's all they did.

Those two things are not the same. Sorry I trust the science, okay? I trust the experts. Listen, there are so many, there are so many things about this game that are fascinating to me, but one of them is like, I don't think nor to your point,

first of all, the Titans are already probably in the modern era the only nobody believed in this one seed they would be a nobody believed in a super bowl team there is nothing that can be they can do that the national media and the national analysts and even kind of joe six pack watch in the game would say this is an elite team like this is all they do is win and i this i know that that is not an analytics thing but they built something where they were up double digits two years ago in kansas city against the chiefs they beat the Baltimore Ravens two years ago when Lamar Jackson was the MVP.

They play a brand of football where they score more points in the opponent. And at some point, over three years, it has to matter. Joe's sixth path. Just Kev talking to the people, you know? Can I share with you both?

One of the most quietly damning things that I have ever heard anyone say about an NFL head coach. It is this. quote, I just don't think that's Zach Taylor's thing. Now, that might sound familiar to you both, and it might sound familiar to our listeners

because it was said here on this very podcast, the Ringer NFL show, by your co-host this weekend, Stephen Ruiz. And he said it not about Zach Taylor's feelings about, you know, Grater's ice cream or any other local delicacy. He was responding, Kevin, to your question about what has gone wrong for the Bengals in the red zone. The red zone can't not be your thing. If you're in Zach Taylor's position. And you have Joe Burrow and you have the Burrow Chase connection, one of the most energizing

and electric and must-watch tammons in all of football. And frankly, all of professional sports right now. Yeah. Yep. Yes. It's not optional to only score six points in the second half of a needlessly close playoff game. First playoff win in 31 years.

That's awesome. But I think we're all in agreement that the. settling for field goals, the conservative and really hesitant and reluctant play calling with that offense, with a quarterback like Burrow, with a playmaker like Chase

and everyone else around them, you just can't do that. You just have to break through in a different way, and they're going to need to this week. All right. Anything else in this game? Moving on.

Big one for you, Kev. We're thinking of you. It's a huge one for me. I have nothing at stake. Zero stakes in the next game. Except for every. 49ers at Packers. Well,

I did pick Packers to win the Super Bowl. Four nineers of Packers, 8.15 Eastern on Saturday. Stakes Nora. All right. I have kind of a hipster pick here. I really wanted to pick Jimmy Garoppel, but he is now working through a shoulder sprain that happened in the second quarter against the Cowboys. We'll be waiting for updates on that. That's obviously a big deal. I think Shanahan's described it as, quote, slight. Jimmy said that if he, you know, he would feel it, but he could play through it. That's also something a little bit yikes to me. and it would be sad if it had a big impact on this game. I do think if he's pretty close to himself,

there's just a situation where he has a chance to pull off the upset. There are a terrible matchup for Green Bay's defense, and it's all coming right before San Francisco have to figure out what they're going to do with him this off season. If there's the added perception that Jimmy Garoppel kind of like gutted through an injury, I do think that that's a big deal. However, because of the uncertainty there, I'm going with a little bit of a hipster pick here.

And it's Packers linebacker Devondre Campbell, who was one of the most surprising, but I think deserving all pro selections this year. And we've talked so much about why this is a bad matchup for Green Bay defensively. And it comes down to the fact that their run defense has been a weakness. San Francisco is obviously going to attack that. That offense can be brutal for linebackers to defend

just because there's so much motion, so much misdirection, Shanahan shenanigans. You've got to not bite on the stuff that looks like it's going one way and then ends up going to the other way. And then their passing game, too, is going to attack where guys like Campbell are playing. The Niners were ninth in the NFL during the regular season on throws of 10 or fewer yards past the line of scrimmage.

You don't want Jimmy dropping back more than five steps as a general rule. And it does put a lot of stress on Green Bay in an area of the field where they haven't been excellent defensively. But it certainly helps to have an all pro who is legit one of the best linebackers in the NFL this season to handle that. And if you're a guy who's not all a household name who's playing on a one-year contract who just got selected as an all pro. And you add a big playoff performance to that. National spotlight, get a lot of attention. That's sort of star making stuff, right?

So I think there's a lot on the line for my guy Devon Gray. Hmm. Interesting hipster pick. Nora? I'm sorry. Now we're just thinking about Nora. She had a great pick. Accidentally said her name points.

That's, that's completely fine. I say Nora's name randomly throughout the day just to celebrate her. that's so nice part of how I make it through the week you know just be sitting here I love my coffee this is so unexpected uh I'm going with Kyle Shanahan folks I think that one thing we should probably acknowledge is that as Nora noted the Garoppolo pick is a clear one to consider here but I think that the Garapolo and Shanahan stakes considerations the assessments inside of this game, the assessor's moving forward, and retrospectively the way we think about this season

and how it was managed with Garoppolo and Lance, they're just linked. They're inextricable from each other. And so especially because of the injury, the double injury, you know, we've still got the lingering thumb and now we have the shoulder factor for Garopolo. Lingering thumb. What a great phrase.

He's got the lingering thumb. It sounds like something that would have magical powers. What would the magical power associated with a lingering thumb be? I think you would be able to, like, sort of shrink people with it. Or maybe you could be, because lingering, like, with pit particles, like, you can turn everyone into Ant Man? I'm just, you know what I was picturing when you said that? I was picturing someone, like, putting their thumb on top of a figurine-sized person. That's why I said that.

Maybe because it's lingering, it has the power to. control time in some way. Take it to the ring of course, guys. Working at Time Turner. Yeah, Nora, carve out some, carve out a few minutes for me on Friday morning. We have a lot to discuss. I'm so there. It's insane.

Can she join the Boba Fett thing? Can we talk about the Boba Fett thing? You can't. You can't, Kevin. I don't understand the concept except Stephen Rook is in it. And then he said there were no stars in it. I looked up in Danny Trajo. It's not what I said.

I kind of feel like maybe maybe I should be the host of doing. is what I think. Yeah, you're welcome to come discuss Waterbonger Lortha Peel with me whenever you'd like. Joanna Van Charles and I, we're all ready.

We love Stephen Rueh, we love Boba. Let's put some stakes on this. If the Titans win the Super Bowl, Kevin is the new host of the Ringerverse. I have to come on for 10 minutes. Kevin has to be able to

correctly tell me exactly what material Boba Fett's armor is made of before he can come on Ringerverse. That's my, can I say something? for entry. Before the show started, I thought the Boba Fett thing

was like an origin story and I thought that the only natural bit was for him to be extremely skinny. And apparently Disney did not want to do that. If you're interested in seeing a sveled young Boba Fett, I'll direct you toward the animated series, the Clone Wars,

where you can see an angsty, asshole young teen Boba working through his quest for vengeance and his remorse. Speaking of remorse, and the possible need for vengeance. Let's go back to Kyle Shanahan here. How will he manage Garapolo's injury?

How will he manage the constant whispers and murmurs about Garoppolo's future, Trey Lance's future, how those things are obviously linked with each other, how the injury factor right now is going to fuel all of that even more heading into this game. If Garoppolo is healthy enough to go, how will Shanahan deploy him to capitalize on everything this offense is capable of doing, everything that Debo is doing right now, what Kittle can do in a key game, without putting Garoppel in a

position to throw a devastating interception that costs the 49ers the game. How is he going to account for the weather? It's going to be a frigid one, right, which in some ways suits the Niners penchant for running often, grinding clock, keep Aaron Rogers the one place he can hurt you on the bench, right? Chew the time. But worrying, of course, for the passing game, especially with that lingering, thumb and tweak's shoulder, the potential for grip issues, feel issues, accuracy issues, and exacerbating them. And how's he going to account for the most important offensive player and player on the field period who is not on his own team, right? That's Aaron Rogers. And the way he manages his own offense in order to try to minimize the amount of plays that Rogers has, it's all

going to be connected in this game. So the Niners actually built well to challenge the Packers. Can they milk these long drives and eat the clock and prevent Garoppolo from under mining everything that Shanahan is doing with this game-breaking Debo Samuel wonderment that we're all getting to enjoy and watch in awe week after week. What they're unlocking there is like revelatory. How do you keep that going and not have another situation like against Dallas where Shanan's making the call to punt on fourth and one with 251 left in a key, key situation in an essential game per next-end stats, that swung their win probability

from 91% to 82.5. You can't make mistakes like that, right? You can't be overly conservative. You have to have the confidence in your own. And the players you're putting on the field to go big against Aaron Rogers and the Packers. So I think there's a lot on the line for Shanahan in terms of this particular game management,

this roster, and what it means for the structure of the team moving forward. Well considered points. Well spoken. Counterpoint. Totally wrong. So first of all, Kyle Shanahan, in my opinion, has the least amount of stakes up for grabs in this game.

And here's why. already has an exit strategy with Tray Lance next year, has already done enough. In mid-season, there were pieces saying Kyle Shanahan should be stripped of personnel powers or he's just a terrible team builder. He can only call the plays, whatever. He's acquitted himself.

He's gotten Jimmy Garoppeload of the divisional round. They're playing a team that he should lose to because the Packers are a buzzsaw. So I think Kyle Shanahan's playing with House Money no matter what. He's like the Titans of the NFC. Okay. He's the Titans in a person. So I think that the most stakes here of anybody, the thing we could go south real quick is Brian Grudenfitton.

And here's why. Aaron Rogers last year, right, started making noise, didn't want to come back. And the media, without Rogers prompting, really, started a narrative that Rogers didn't have enough. I don't know why. And then this year totally flipped. and it became Brian Gunn-Kunz, built a really good team, which, by the way, he had done for years. I love Aaron Rogers, but I also love Matt LaFleur.

I love Brian Gunz. I love Devante Adams. I love when David Bacchiari comes back. The line, which has been banged up over the course of the season, was built well. The defense, Fondra Campbell, getting Resuel Douglas on a bargain basement contract, moves like that.

Then obviously, John Alexander has come back as well. They have a stacked team. But it was funny because Bob Stern was in his podcast a couple of years, He's going to talk Mike McCarthy. And he said that Mike McCarthy did the worst thing you can do football, which is go toe-to-to-to-to with Aaron Rogers. Because you're going to lose. Because he's media savvy.

If people are going to take Rogers' side, they should. He's an amazing quarterback. If there's a decision to be made between anybody and Aaron Rogers, you always take Aaron Rogers. But I think if they lose this game, the conversations around the draft, or even before that, even Sunday night, start right back up again.

It's going to be Aaron wants out. He wants to go to Denver. He wants to go to Pittsburgh. He wants to go to Miami. He wants to go to the Giants, save that franchise. Whatever. I'm making this up. But those conversations start again,

and then it becomes an indictment of Brian Gugentgen-Kinz's team build. Aaron Rogers played an MVP level again. And I think that if they lose this game, fairly or unfairly, and in fact, it's going to be unfairly. The conversation's going to shift to Aaron Rogers needs to go some of us.

Did those conversations ever stop, though? Like, obviously the entire season and the narrative around Aaron Rogers and the Packers, drastically changed. But winning the Super Bowl was always kind of embedded in the possibility of a last dance narrative, right? And whether this would be the end and whether leaving the Super Bowl would in fact be the thing that solidified the end and the desire to move on. I think that there's like an interesting kind of philosophical thing to talk about for

like 30 seconds here about what we mean by stakes and how much of it is about what comes next and how much of it is about what's concentrated in this moment. Because I actually agree with everything that you said. in the follow-up points about Shanahan. I don't think that what happens in this game is like an indictment or a positive solidification, make or break forever for the rest of his coaching career. But when you move up to three in the draft and you take a quarterback and then you play a mediocre passer as your starter, health permitting the bulk of the year,

and then you're in a situation where that specific reality has the prospect to impact the outcome, that's the kind of thing that is going to reflect, one way or another and have a lingering impact beyond this game. So it's hard, given everything that's happened with Rogers to sort of isolate all of the factors here, obviously. But does the prospect of them winning and the fact that they've been a favorite, did that feel like it negated to you during the run of the season, the possibility of him leaving? Yeah, I mean, there was a quote, from Rogers, the grass is, you know, was greener, all that stuff.

I felt like if Rogers has more input now than he did, I guess last year, he admitted that he had the press conference where he basically aired it all out. I think that so much of the complaints of Rogers or the complaints of people who are arguing on behalf of Rogers and the media and the fan base, whatever, I think a lot of those have dissipated. And I think that there is, I think everybody's kind of in an agreement right now that there is no better place for him than Green Bay, which was not the conversation in April.

But it will be the conversation if they lose this weekend. He said that in April. I'm not sure that's entirely true. I think there's always been something baked to the conversation that Rogers might make a bad choice to leave because he's a little bit of an odd duck. I don't think there was a better place than Green Bay for him last off season. I thought he might have left because of feelings.

But football wise, I don't think, I think that has been the best option and is the best option is for him to stay. Yeah, I think the volatility feels like counterintuitively, perhaps the constant in terms of what we can expect to hear in a given press conference or what might bubble up to the fore at a given moment, even if the football situation is clearly superior. It's interesting. Maybe this all just solidifies Kevin's point, though, about how much is on the line and what could what could feel clearer after this, one way or another. You know who's escaping out the back door and all of this? Kyle Shanahan. No pressure on our boy. On our number one door. All right. Let's move on.

So the next game. Is that why you said number one boy? He really does look like, right? Yeah. Yes. Yes. Rams at Bucks 3 o'clock Eastern on Sunday, Nora. Okay. So I've done my goofy pick. I've done my hipster pick. This one is is meat and potatoes. It's Sean McVeigh. And I was looking at this game and thinking about it and thinking to myself, everything that I'm saying here has to do mostly with personnel.

There's a little bit of play-clogging stuff, but it is so largely tied to this team being built on stars with all of the boomer bust volatility that comes with that. And why is it not less sneed? But it's Sean McVeigh, because he is the architect of the whole endeavor with moving, on from Goff to get Stafford. And he went to a Super Bowl with Goff.

So I really do think that you need playoff or something with Stafford to completely call that a success. Still incredible. Never not shocking to hear someone say it out loud. A thing that really happened. But the shine, I think, has come off the apple just a little bit

with the boy wonder. And this is going to be an interesting game in terms of if he can be proven right in Stafford's ability to upgrade the Rams ceiling. And that's where it feeds into play calling in the offense they run in a way that's really interesting in this game to me. Because when they signed Stafford at first, including in week three, when they beat the Bucks 34 to 24, They were this pretty explosive past first operation where a lot was in Stafford's hands. But then that stopped being quite as effective.

He started throwing picks. And over the second half of the season, they've become this much more run-heavy team, including in the first quarter of their first game, including on Monday, when they beat the Cardinals, they called designed runs on 65% of their first quarter plays. and so that's a good representation of what they were doing before the game got super lopsided because obviously that happened

incredibly fast in that game. When they beat the bucks in week three, their pass splits in the first half were 22 passes to 10 runs. They came out of halftime. Stafford hit a 75-yard bomb to Deshawn Jackson. Jackson's not on the team anymore. It's a different type of offense that has taken a lot out of Stafford's hands,

which feeds into the conversation around was that worth it to go get him in the first place? I also think that it's going to feed into how they can both attack Tampa's defense and then just keep up with the bucks and keep up with Tom Brady and what they're going to try to do on offense in the first place. And all of that to me comes back to Sean McPay. I think Stafford gets off a little bit easier just because he's now won his first playoff game. There's a lot of goodwill there, I think, and there's in some ways less fatigue. about this super splashy Rams operation, not winning a Super Bowl,

not getting it all done when the lights are brightest. So I think we're going to come out of this talking about one way or another, McVeigh more than any other figure in this game. Now? Interesting. I thought you were going to fix Stafford.

I don't think that the player's, off win thing just goes away after one win, given that it is his first playoff win in 13 years. I think that's going to be something that lingers into this game and, you know, potentially beyond. It was interesting during the broadcast to hear, I mean, the thing that I'm still thinking of after the broadcast is how Steve Levy said, Marvell instead of Marvel. Secret scroll watch, scroll, Cree, war, agent watch for Steve Levy. Am I right?

I know you both know what I'm talking about. He's thinking about. Carvel. But there was a lot of chatter during the broadcast about how Stafford had as much on the line entering this postseason is as anyone because of the need to break through to that playoff win. However, I'm not picking Matt Stafford either. I am picking the Rams organization, less need specifically, and the front office for this team building strategy because a lot, a lot is on the line not only for the Rams, but potentially for how we assess this blueprint and how other teams. teams in a copycat league assess the replicability or viability of this blueprint moving forward. You know, I loved the conversation that you all had over the weekend about the way the bills

have built their team and how that feels like something other teams could actually strive for and could actually try to do. And as we go team by team across the playoff field, who else is in a situation where they've done something that we think other teams might try? Like the way the Rams approach their team building is in some ways so, I think we've all kind of gotten like numb to it because they've just gone so all in that we have accepted it as part of the course with them. Part for the course makes me think of the golf course that goth had at his home where he named his golf course. The golf course. I like to bring that up whenever I can because it was so funny. Anyway, they have redefined what it means. None of these people have real stakes

to go all in on a championship pursuit. Like you'll have to check my math on this, but I believe, if my calculations are updated and correct, that the Rams next have a first round pick when, uh, roughly in the time period when the expanse is set, you know, roughly when our dear planet, planet Earth is set to resemble desert planet Iraqis. Like, we're talking about a deck. Kevin, do you get that reference? That's a Dune reference. I knew Nora would get that after watching Dune. It was two separate sci-fi references for you there. You started with the expanse and then Dune, right, back to back. I knew Nora would love the Dune one though. She's on a Dune High right now.

She's just surging through the content like a sandworm. I was texting with a Rams person the other day at the Georgia, Alabama game. And I just kept bringing up how they're never going to be able to draft any of these guys. Right. So we're talking a decade without a top pick. And constantly compounding that as recently as with the Miller trade. second rounds there, but still, does it matter? Will it matter? Will this prove to have been the right flags fly forever strategy for the Rams?

They're clicking at the right time. They have, I think, a real chance here against a very depleted bucks roster that has been hampered by injuries. But that idea of going all in in a specific moment and totally mortgaging the future for the now, it's interesting against Brady because it stands out in such stark contrast to that like, you know, avocado-fueled, ageless quality of everything that any team that is playing Brady gets to think about. So I just think that this is a moment where, whether it's through the Stafford lens or any of the other picks that they have acquired in high-profile

draft capital exchange trades, we're going to assess whether that was worth it, what that means for the Rams right now moving forward. And then what that might mean if it does work for other teams in terms of how they think about the relative value of traffics. Tom Brady has actually studied this. If you eat enough avocados, it negates the need for a Sam's suit. Boom. Wow. Nora just all in on the still suit tech.

This is, uh, we've really lost Kevin. I mean, he's just shaking his head in absolute dismay, but I'm loving it. I saw a dune and I, it kind of lost me. What a horrible take. I'm, I just, I've got, it's, I have a lot of things to do. I was watching the movie. It wasn't like keeping my interest.

My wife loved it. It was fine. I did my own thing. Why watch a modern cinematic classic like Dune when you can just crunch Titans tape, you know? Everyone's doing their own thing. That's one of my core tenants. Titans tape is my Dune.

Wow. You know what my Dune is? Run pass ratios. Just looking at it and saying, wow, that's a best name. balanced team with a good culture. That's your spice. I love it. What's your steak, Kev? So there's one person you guys both named, but you didn't say he had the most at stake. And he does, because it's related to one of them as well. Jared Goff's victory lap. If they lose this game. He gets to put up Miss Me Yet, billboards. They went out and get, McVeigh was in Cabo and had to go out and get Matt Stafford. They just,

sell out their franchise to get Matt Stafford. I love Matt Stafford, but he's thrown a lot of pick sixes. He's made a lot of mistakes. He still has those Matt Stafford old Detroit mistakes buried in him somewhere. Jared Goff got them to the Super Bowl. Jared Goff went into New Orleans against a team that was outplaying them and won the game in overtime. Obviously, there was a weird call in that game, terrible call. St. Shoulda want it.

Having said that, Jared Goff did this. So that to me, this game. I'm not one of these people would say, okay, if you lose this game, this was a disaster. The Stafford era is going to last many more years than this year. But it's a referendum on the move because the move was made to win a Super Bowl. The move was to expand the scheme. The move was to have a guy at the quarterback position who can do everything McVeigh wants. Well, if it's a second round exit and it's not incredible quarterback play,

then the referendum in the short term is on whether or not it worked and it would be a failure. That is the world that the Rams have created, which is they can win the Super Bowl or they can fail. That's kind of how all in works. Right. Everything that you guys are talking about, Sean McVey is the architect of. I think these are all solid points.

I just think that they all come back to one person who uses a lot of hair gel. What a moment for Goff. Multiple mentions on an NFL podcast on January 19th in 2022. Good for him. just say that I'm very glad nobody said that Tom Brady was the answer in this game? There's not even

really a Bucks. I mean, they just won the Super Bowl. So it's tough to say anybody on the Bucks. I think that's totally right. Tom Brady obviously thinks that the stakes are highest for him, probably because like someone squinted out of him funny in the hemp milk aisle and he decided

that it was a massive slight. But Tom Brady lives a life mostly free of stakes at this point. And I'm glad that we acknowledge it. Less QB talk than I was expecting on the pod, though. Perhaps that's about to change for this final game.

Who knows? All right. Nora, main event, bills at Chiefs 6.30 Sunday start a cell. So I'm delivering for Mal here, going quarterback. It's Patrick Mahomes. I think Josh Allen is kind of coming for him a little bit as the unstoppable

quarterback. And the bills, if you think about it, the bill's the biggest way. early on in the season was against Kansas City. They won 38 to 20. Josh Allen threw for 315 yards, 3 touchdowns. He also ran for 59 yards. That to me is really, really, really important

because Stephen Ruiz made the point over the weekend on this very podcast that the bills, who have a lot of people in controlling positions who worked with Cam Newton and Carolina, may be unleashing Allen on the ground in a way that mirrors the lessons of having a, you know, big battering ram, mobile, strong quarterback like Cam Newton, where they preserved him for the majority of the regular season,

but then towards the end when they needed to come out of that midseason slump and go into the playoffs sort of firing on all cylinders, they did that by adding the element of Josh Allen as a runner. if you look back earlier in the season, the one other time that they did that was against Kansas City in another really, really high profile, high importance situation.

I do not think there is anyone on Kansas City's defense who is well equipped to deal with that. I do not think that schematically or personnel-wise, they have the type of players who you'd think, okay, nobody wants to go against Josh Allen when he's firing on all cylinders,

but this is as good as it's going to get. I think they are a bad matchup. What that means is that Mahomes is going to have to be Mahomes. He's going to have to score. Their offense is going to have to look like it did against the Steelers, which should be, you know, that's a good Steelers defense, right? Like they were getting the ball back a lot, but those are tough guys to play again.

So maybe they can do it again, despite the Bill's defense also being a very, very good group that has, as we've discussed, been designed to face the Chiefs. Since week 14, Mahomes has the NFL's best total QBR. He's thrown 17 touchdown passes to two interceptions, six games, including the wildcard round. They've averaged 36.5 points per game, only four turnovers during that stretch. And I think they're going to need to do that again. And if they do, Mahomes reinforces the idea that if there is an inevitable quarterback in

the AFC, he has that title and he alone has that title. I think if Josh Allen outplays him, and Josh Allen in some ways has an easier degree of difficulty with that, because I think he matches up better with the defense that he's going to be going against, then I don't think you're going to hear a lot of people arguing that, you know, Josh Allen is better than Patrick Mahomes. If you were starting a franchise tomorrow, you'd rather have Josh Allen than Patrick Holmes. I don't think it's going to go there. But I do think that you're going to get this idea that there's a real tug of war going on in the AFC.

and that is not a place where Mahomes in terms of how he's perceived has been recently. Like, he has been 1A for a long time. And I think the idea that that could, there could be some chipping away that happens at that is a big deal. What a big call. I just did not see that coming. I'm shum floored. I think Nora just put Mahomes on fraud watch, I think. Nora just put Mahomes on fraud watch, I think. Wow.

Hmm. Okay. So I'm going to go, we get, I want to debate this here in a second. I'm going to say Steve Spagnolo because I think he's the only person of anybody who has maybe, if there's a catastrophic failure this weekend, has his job on the line. Because he's the only one who hasn't done his job in a maximum, maximally effective way over the past 12 months. Having said that, now, what do you think of Nora's take that? that Josh Allen could conceivably be coming for Patrick Mahomes,

and the Mahomes seems to win on Sunday. I did not say that. You did say that. No, I didn't. I don't think that there's a world where Josh Allen takes the throne that Patrick Mahomes does, currently has. I think there's a world where he kind of, you know, pulls it down a level. A throne lowering.

How is that different for coming from him? Coming for him. Fine, whatever. embrace debate Nora All right let me throw this out there as a consideration for the group I think that

Patrick Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes and will be Patrick Mahomes coming into this game during this game and out of this game and nothing there will change what if though we took all of the factors and variables that Nora is citing and just inverted them

in terms of assessing which quarterback has the stakes on the line then and say Josh Allen is the one then with the stakes on the line because Mahomes is Mahomes, right? And that is going to remain unfixed and unflinching and unyielding and unchanging. And the question with Josh Allen, who has been this constant riser over the last few seasons,

but is also, I think very much unlike Mahomes, kind of in this constant like seesawing of assessment and narrative around him, frankly, as recently as just heading into that last playoff game when one of the big questions was how would Josh Allen perform in cold weather, given his history in the freezing temperatures previously heading into that contest. Josh Allen coming off one of the best quarterback performances in NFL playoff history, doing that against Bill Belichick, against the Patriots.

then heading into a head-to-head contest with the guy who is on the throne and does have the crown. Patrick Mahomes, there's not a better stretch. I would posit for Allen to try to cement that he, while not moving on to the Mahomes tier, has moved up definitively into that top tier and that we should all stop it with this constant seesawing and where are we and where is Josh Allen and do we need to rethink and who's regressing when and how and for how long. that this is coming off the divisional matchup, heading into the toe-to-to-showdown with Mahom,

short of a Super Bowl win and an MVP-caliber performance in a Super Bowl, the best chance he has to deliver a game with an outsized impact on solidifying something about the mass perception around Allen and what his reputation is in the quarterback hierarchy. You know who actually has the most existential stakes? all the other quarterbacks

tables in western New York those could exist or they could not exist on Sunday or on 11 p.m. They can be set on fire run through the whole deal.

All right guys, anything else? It's just a delightful weekend of football. I can't wait to watch the games. A joy to chat about them with both of you. See you on ring reverse. I will not be seeing you. on ring or verse. But, you know, I'll be thinking about you, Kav, during Titans Bengals. We all will be. It's a big weekend for you. And we hope that,

we hope that you get everything you're looking for from Ryan to Anahill. Next up on this feed, Ben, Kael and Stephen preview in the divisional round. Nora, myself and Stephen will be back on Saturday to recap those games. Ben joined Nora and I on Sunday to break down. Those games, Jason Gough, Ryan Chazier and James Jones. We'll be back on Tuesday. Thank you, too. I'm on this episode with additional productions of provision by Arjuna Rim. football has been the ringer on a fellow show on the ringer podcast network.