The Ringer NFL Show - Who Will Win the MVP and Who Should Win the MVP | The Ringer NFL Show

Episode Date: November 21, 2019

The MVP award is predictable at this point, and Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson are running away with it. Is it fair that a non-QB is essentially ineligible to win each year? Also, how good does a quarterback’s team need to be to qualify them for the award? (1:30). Then, a Brian Flores–themed Take Shop, the biggest three games of the week, and a 'Thursday Night Football' preview (38:15). Hosts: Robert Mays and Kevin Clark Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today's episode of the NFL show is brought to you by State Farm. When you need a game plan for protection, state farm agents are here to help. The personalized service, agents are available to talk in person, over text through the State Farm app. So go with the one with coverage and agents you can help. Find an agent in your neighborhood today. State Farm. Talk to an agent today. The ringer NFL show, I'm Robert Mays, joined as always by Kevin Clark. Kevin, how you doing, buddy?

I am at a parking lot outside of the New England Patriots Pro Shop. Do you want to buy you anything? It's a very strange place. There's that, what's the Mexican place called? It's called Scorpion something, right? I don't know. The only place I've ever eaten at Patriot Place besides the hotel is Bar-Louis. There's a Bar-Louis.

There's a TB-12 store. I want to say there's a five guys. It's an incredibly strange area of the wolf. It's a Red Robin. There's a lot of stuff going on there. I will say this. It is unique among NFL facilities. Yeah.

It's really, there's nothing like it. It's its own little kind of adult weird Disneyland. The Packers are trying to do that. They're trying to do that. They have that hinterland beer place across the street now. I stayed in that hotel last time I was there. Yeah, it's amazing that it took them so long to get there. The fact that that area hadn't been built up was always so strange to me.

It's like, why is there nothing by Lambo Field? Why is there no Bar-Louis? That's exactly right. That's what they're missing up there. All right. We are going to kick off the show today by digging into something you wrote about in-depth this week. You know, we've all, we've talked about it a bunch. I've written about it in scattered ways. I kind of mentioned what Riley wrote this week about Dak Prescott is essentially a kernel of what I wrote in my

starting 11. So this is a conversation that's always ongoing, but I really want to kind of dive head first into it for this show. And that is the MVP conversation. So we're going to talk about who is kind of on track to win the award, who should, who can. And then we're also going to kind of get into the most valuable players in other ways and most valuable people in other ways. But let's start with just the actual Associated Press most valuable player award. As you're kind of taking stock of it right now, what are the things and what are the factors that have been most important to you?

Yeah. So what I wrote this week was that the award on it, on the surface, is broken because it's really about the best team and the best quarterback. And then from there, we figure it out. There's like five candidates every single year that are legitimate candidates, right? I mean, we all have agreed the past three years that Aaron Donald is the best player in football, and no one's ever made the case to Aaron Donald's win the MVP. Jerry Rice never won the award as quarterback won at four times.

It's been since I believe 1986 that a non-runningback or quarterback has won the award. So we sort of know what the MVP is. And by the way, a running back is not going to win anytime soon, even if Christian McCaffrey puts up unimaginable numbers unless they went 15 and 1, right? and so it is a strange award. But given the parameters of the award, Lamar Jackson versus Russell Wilson is the most fun race we could possibly hope for.

These guys are valuable. These guys make their team go. They are fun to watch. I mean, this is, if we have to do this with this award where it's just good quarterbacks on good teams, then this is the best thing we've got. I would give the nod right now to Lamar Jackson

because, I mean, there's a million reasons for it. I mean, I just think that, you know, the value his legs bring on top of the passing stuff, the efficiency. There was a great pro football focus breakdown of, you know, just the efficiency of that offense this week where you're talking about, you know, they're dropping back to pass at a league average rate. And that's the biggest difference between last year and this year is that they're dropping out to pass more. And what that's allowing them to do is get more first downs on first and second down. And they're avoiding third down in a way they weren't last year. Obviously, you want Lamar Jackson on third and short. He'll be able to figure it out normally.

But the best way to get a first down is to avoid third down, right? And so I would at this point give the nod when you look at all of the factors. And listen, remember, this is a traditional award. And Lamar Jackson won head to head. And I think voters are going to remember this. And so I think that it will come down to a handful of primetime performances in December, not unlike the Heisman trophy when we're all watching. What do these guys do?

but if I had to award it right now on November 21st, I would give it to Lamar Jackson, despite the fact, and this is the big thing for me. Russell Wilson is doing more with less, okay? Lamar Jackson is in a scheme built perfectly for him. He is in the midst of personnel that is awesome. Ozzie Newsom's last draft with, you know, Mark Andrews and Orlando Brown and himself, like that.

That's an amazing draft. And Russell Wilson is playing for a coaching shot that doesn't accentuate his town, maybe a worse supporting cast, worst offensive line. There are factors that make me want to go Wilson, but right now I'm going Jackson.

So when you say Jackson, when you say that's the direction you go right now, is that the award as if you were giving it out or that's who you think will be picked and should be picked based on the parameters we have? I don't know. I'm in kind of a, I've gone, this is like a joker thing.

I'm in too deep now. I've put myself in the mind. I've put myself in the mind of of the voter and now I can't get out I'm like Jack Nicholson playing the Joker right I just it is it is hard

for me to separate what I actually believe if I because the problem for me is that if I opened it up to what I actually believe then you're looking at like I think Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson is the most valuable players in football but is third Michael Thomas you know is someone from the Patriots defense

up there is Steph Gilmore in the top 10 for me. I don't know the answer to that because I'm looking at it's a traditional award. I think that Lamar Jackson right now is the most valuable player in football, but I also think that there's five games to go, six games to go, and there's a real case we made that Russell Wilson could pass him or they could just keep going back and forth. I think Russell Wilson is the most valuable player in football. Okay. And I think he has been this season. And I feel like it's for a lot of the factors that you mentioned. He has less help. He is forced to do more. And it hasn't hurt his efficiency.

There's no qualification to Russell Wilson's performance. It's not as if, well, look at how much he has to do, and if his numbers are a little bit worse, that's how you explain it away. His numbers aren't worse. He's been absolutely incredible while having to do all of that. And I think that's why he gets the nod, in my opinion. I feel like what you said before, we talked a lot about this. I've been on the record saying that I think there should be a most outstanding player

in the NFL, and I think we should find a way to tweak this. That will never happen just for posterity. For history, we need to have an MVP award. So there can be a list of MVP winners of all time. But the way that it works right now, it just sucks because you're right. No non-quarterback can win it. So it just silly to me because Aaron Donald for the last couple seasons, last year you probably could have given it to some homes. But Aaron Donald has been the most outstanding player in football over the last couple of years. But he can't be the most valuable just based on the way the game is played right now. Even Jerry Rice, if you were in the league right now, would probably not be the most valuable player.

It's just impossible. So I just think that that, the discourse and the dialogue and the names of the awards are broken. But if we talk about just pure value, if we're giving it to the most valuable player, I do think it's Russell Wilson this season. I think Lamar Jackson is right there. But I do think that when you're in this perfectly realized vision of what that offense was supposed to be and you're thriving in it, we shouldn't knock Lamar Jackson. and for that.

But I also think that we should reward Russell Wilson for not being in a similar situation. I completely agree with you. And I wrote that. I came away from my column making no definitive proclamations because of that because it's unknowable in how voters are going to go. And I don't think voters actually think about this all that deeply. I think they just kind of look and say this guy's 14 and 2 and is a good quarterback,

which is more for him. So I think a lot of it's going to come down to wins and loss. Unfortunately, you know, the comparison I made was, in baseball in 2010, Felix Hernandez won the Salyung with 13 wins. And that became a watershed moment in baseball because people were saying there were old school guys who were saying 13 win pitchers should not win the Sanyung, even though he was dominant. And then they just gave him the Sanyang.

And now, you know, look, there are MVP candidates almost every year who don't make the playoffs in baseball. Mike Trout is just going to win the MVP forever and it's never going to play another playoff game apparently. Apparently that's going on in baseball. Hill Simmons is not happy about it. That hasn't happened. in in in football and it may never i think that one of the things i like your idea of an award um kind of a separate award

from from when i think about it is there a way to do like performance of the year and what i mean by that or achievement of the year what i mean by that is if josh gordon gets six and hundred yards with you know the quarterbacks he had in 2013 brian hoyer and jason campbell and those guys can we give him an award of some sort if someone gets 21 sacks, 20 sacks, can we give them an award of some sort? Like, I just think that I understand that there are awards for some of these folks, like defensive player of the year, offensive player of the year, whatever, but those are not, offensive player of the year is not diverse enough from MVP. And so I just think there might be room to just do like, here's something cool to happen.

Let's give this guy an award. I think that the offensive player of the year should not be allowed to be a quarterback. Because it's just stupid. why would we give it to the same guy who's going to win the MVP? So, like, in 2013, right, that's the year that Josh Gordon just went bonkers. Yep. So in 2013, Peyton Manning throws 50, was it 55 touchdowns? Is that the record?

So he throws 55 touchdowns. He wins MVP, obviously. And then he wins offensive player of the year. What's the point of that? Like, why is that necessary? And there are times where it doesn't happen, and I usually support those. So why isn't Josh Gordon just the non-quarterback offensive player of the year that season? And then we can have an most outstanding player.

I just think that there's a smarter way to do this. I'm not sure we ever will, but I would like to see it happen that way. The other guys... I'm in agreement with you. I feel like Russell or Lamar Jackson's probably going to end up getting this because of team success. Barnwell wrote about this years ago when we were at Grant when he just said that you need to be the number one points geter in fantasy at your position typically and your team needs to get it by. And this was years ago. I'm not sure how much the criteria has changed.

but that was true a while ago. And it seems like the Ravens have the best chance of that happening. Lamar Jackson is the number one player in fantasy and the Ravens probably will get a first round by. The Seahawks, it's much more up in the air. The other guys I would throw out, Aaron Rogers is not even in this conversation to me.

I love Aaron Rogers more than anyone. And it's so silly to mention him with these guys. Deshawn Watson, I think, is still, should definitely still be mentioned. I think that he's been amazing. What he's asked to do on that team is outsized compared to a lot of. of quarterbacks in the NFL, they wouldn't even be in this situation if it weren't for them.

The other guy is Dak Prescott. I think that Dak Prescott has been just as good at quarterbacking as Lamar Jackson and maybe a small step down from Russell Wilson. He's been unbelievable this season. If we talk about the most valuable players in football, he's in the conversation. If we're talking about who's going to win the most valuable player award, he's not, just because the Cowboys aren't good enough. Yep.

Um, Dak Prescott is playing an elite level. Unfortunately, he has a, a record right now that is not in MVP contention according to voters. I mean, I think it's so weird. The conversation, when you look at kind of the voting, it's so weird how it even kind of takes shape. Because when I was going through it in 2010, there were a lot of discussions in late December about whether or not Michael Vick was the MVP and not Tom Brady. And then when the award was given, out, Brady won unanimously, 50 to zero. Like what, I just don't even understand. I don't even understand what happened some years. And so, like, the New York Times and like all these places on like December 20th were like, is Vic going to win the MVP? And they just didn't get any votes. And so someone like Prescott, um, who is playing again at a superstar level, he has more

interceptions than Wilson and the homes over the past 16 games. But with, aside from that, he is right there. statistically with some of these guys. It's just that he is not. The Cowboys are seen as a very strange, inconsistent team because they're coached by an inconsistent coach and have an inconsistent supporting cast. A lot of this is not Doc Prescott's fault.

But it unfortunately does not crawl into the voters' minds that Doc Prescott should be up with Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson. When it comes to the team success part, I'm torn about it because I understand why it matters a little bit in football, just because of how outsized the quarterback's impact is, right? So in the NBA, it'd be very difficult to be the MVP if your team doesn't make the

playoffs. There are five players on the court. If you're the best player in basketball, your team is very likely going to make the playoffs no matter who's surrounding you. In baseball, it's easy to understand. It's an individual sport. You are one of nine guys who plays one at a time for half the game. You can be the most valuable player and not have your team experience a lot of success.

but in football, if you were the best quarterback, if you are the most valuable quarterback in football, shouldn't your team at least be in the playoffs? Isn't it almost impossible for them not to be? Yeah, last time a non-playoff player won the MVP was 1973, it was OJ Simpson. Let's quickly move on from that point. And so I just, I kind of, it's a chicken and egg thing, right?

Exactly. If you're a valuable quarterback, do you automatically make your team good? I don't know the answer to that. I mean, I guess, I guess in the parameters of probably, yes, of what we've decided the award is. But on the other hand, I've seen some really good quarterbacks who've played with some awful supporting casts. And we've seen this.

And, you know, I don't think there have been any quarterbacks who play for a seven and nine team who I'm like, this guy's got to win the MVP. I mean, I think you kind of get into a little bit of when Drew Brees was setting all those records for kind of mediocre. That would be a really good example. Yeah. where if Drew Brees were a baseball player in, you know, when those eight and eight years and he's, you know, breaking passing efficiency records, he would get MVP momentum.

That just not the case in football. That the Drew Brees one is perfect. I was going to say, I'm sure there's an example of somebody who we should talk about like this. Yeah, I mean, Breeze in 2016, he threw for 5,200 yards, 37 touchdowns for a team that went 7 and 9. That's definitely the one I would throw out. So, by the way, his good, his great seasons have lined up with other great seasons, and he's just never going to win the award. The 2011 MVP race is crazy, man.

Have you ever looked at that? I have. So I want to talk about the 2011 MVP race just really quickly, because I was looking at DAC's stats earlier this week. And if he, he's on pace to throw for 5,200 yards, like the seventh most ever. and he's averaging like 8.7, I think 8.8 yards per attempt. So he would be the fourth quarterback ever to throw for 5,000 yards while averaging 8.5 yards per attempt or more.

The other guys are Marino in 84, Tom Brady in 2010, and I think Matt Ryan in 2016. It's a crazy list. That's the most efficient passing seasons ever. But if you look at that 2011 season, excuse me, It was Brady in 2011. So Brady in 2011 had one of the most incredible passing seasons of all time. He did not win the MVP award.

He didn't even win offensive player of the year because that went to Breeze because he threw for 5,400 yards, 46 touchdowns, and completed 71.2% of his passes. He also didn't win the MVP because Aaron Rogers set the single season record for yards per attempts for a team that went 15 and 1. That year is crazy. Yep. And I wish that we celebrated this kind of stuff more. Like the history of the MVP, where I just feel like the football, for whatever reason, maybe it's because the, and I've talked

about this, the award seems so obvious in retrospect that we don't kind of do enough who should have won this MVP debate. Like kind of they do this. Obviously, our boss, Bill Simmons has done this many times in the NBA, especially the Jordan years. You know, I remember Bill James used to write about Mickey Mantle's MVP's in the 60s. and like some of that stuff can be instructive on what an era of the sport is. And obviously, you know, too much of it gets extremely boring. But I think there's a place for it. And I wish we had these debates more.

I feel like NFL has a bit of a history problem in that regard. That's why I care so much about them from season to season. Because it matters a lot to me because of the looking back aspect of it. I love this stuff. And I love it in the moment because I know 20 years from now, it's going to matter for how we consider the game. So it seems silly sometimes as we're doing it in the present, but I still think that we should take more stock in it

and we should put more effort into it because of exactly what you're saying. All right, I want to play one quick little game here before we move on. I want to talk about some of the non-players in the NFL when we're talking about the MVP, the most valuable people. Are there coaches in the league right now outside of Belichick? You know, Belichick is obviously one of the answers. You probably put Andy Reid in there as well.

maybe Sean Payton. Are there coaches on either side of the ball right now that you think have been more valuable than Russell Wilson this season? So I want to unpack that for a second. So I don't think that the Ravens. Or Lamar Jackson for you. Yeah. So the Raven scheme to me, although it's awesome and like, you know, the use of the pistol,

how many looks they can have or they can run it so many different things out of one look. I mean, it's been really great. but it's also a personnel triumph, right? Absolutely. They have the offensive line to do this. They have the backfield to do this. So I actually don't think that, I don't think that we can say necessarily

that Greg Roman or any of these guys are more valuable than Ozzy Newsom, Eric Acosta. Newsom obviously drafted the bulk of this team at this point, with the cost only being around for, being the head of the team for two years. But what I would say is that, I mean, it depends how you view Jimmy Garoppolo. Is Kyle Shanahan up there for you?

He always is for me. I would take Kyle Shanahan over a lot of really good players in the NFL. I just think that he's the best offensive mind in football, maybe outside of Andy Reed. So the answer is for me is yes, but I can understand why some people would say no. Yeah, and I agree with you about Sean Payton. I mean, we went 5'0 toady Bridgewater,

and that's important. But I also think Michael Thomas, This is important to that, right? And so I, I don't know, man. We're going to get to him in a second. If we're drafting people for the 2020 season, do you draft Belichick first or do you draft Russell Wilson first? Or somebody else?

Belichick. Okay. Belichick. I agree with you. I agree. I think you take Belichick 100 times out of 100. Who's the second pick? Is it Andy Reid or Russell Wilson?

Or is it Aaron Donald? Or is it? It's probably Russell. tackle. If we're just assuming that you're going to get this Russell Wilson next season, I think I'd rather have Russell Wilson than Andy Reid for a year. This is just for one season.

For 10, I'd rather have Andy Reid. Okay. Just because there's less variance. At what point do you pick a GM in this situation? Very low on the list. Extremely low on the list. Especially if it's for one season. If it's for 10 seasons, it's a different deal. But I would take

Chris Ballard. He'd be the first GM I would draft, but it would be low. And I think even Chris Ballard would admit that. No, I agree. But also, it was just for one year. Like, what are you doing? Yeah, exactly. For a GM, it doesn't really make a lot of sense. I think that if we're talking about a decade again, maybe you draft Chris Ballard a little bit earlier. Is Chris Ballard, would he be your number one GM right now?

I think so. How much higher would you take him than the other ones? Like, where would he rank on the list to you? Howie's up there, obviously. At this point, I think Eric Acosta looks like he is a top top GM. And by the way, Eric DeCosta has been there for a long time. He has been the number one deputy in that franchise for more than a decade. Ozzie Newsom is a damn good drafter, FYI.

He's a legend. Yes, he's one of the greatest gems of all time. He is a legend. John Schneider, obviously, quite high. Absolutely, yep. Trying to think who else. That's probably the list for me. Yeah.

I mean, I'm trying to think of who else you throw. I mean, Belichick doesn't really count. But that's probably it. Kevin Colbert's done a very good job. It's been a little bit more bare. and there recently, but that's probably the kind of Mount Rushmore group of five that I'd throw out. All right, let's talk about just very quickly.

You brought Michael Thomas. Who is your shortlist for who has been the most valuable non-quarterback in the NFL this year? Well, again, so if you're going by voters, it would be Christian McCaffrey, right? But I don't actually think that way. I think Michael Thomas would be number one. Again, I think that there are parts of the Patriot Secondary

that all work together really well, but I think if you wanted to sort of assign value to one of them, it would be Stefan Gilmore, who's obviously just shutting down one entire side of the field. I just think there's, there's, I think Michael Thomas and then everybody else is, is where I view it right now. He has more receptions in the Philadelphia Eagles at this point,

which is a true stat that I can't really process. We'll get into that later in the show, I promise you. He just, he's really good. So Michael Thomas has 94 receptions in 10 games. He has 1,141 receiving irons. Obviously, the volume can be misleading at times. You guys getting tons of receptions, tons of targets. That kind of thing happens.

He's also number two in the NFL behind Tyree Kill, who hasn't even played that much, in yards per route run. From the slot, he's averaged 3.42 yards per route run. No one else in the NFL is above 2.66. And he has done this without Drew Brees for almost the entire season. he's always been in the conversation for the most valuable receiver in the NFL. I think this year is when he's done it.

He is the most valuable receiver in the league right now. These are the type of volume plus efficiency kind of correlations that only Julio typically gets. It's really difficult to do this. It's almost like being a volume shooter in basketball. When they're throwing you the ball this much, it's difficult to be so efficient with it because you're getting a lot of targets, a lot of inefficient targets, a lot of end of the shot clock shots and it hasn't mattered for Michael Thomas this year. That's how good he's actually been. Yeah. I mean, it's funny to me that we needed an injury to Drew Breeze to figure out

Michael Thomas's value because we've been seeing this 90% catch rate through what 10 games last year with Breeze. And we said, okay, well, he's just the perfect. That's the perfect marriage between quarterback and receiver, et cetera, et cetera. And now we understand that Michael Thomas has a lot to do with it. It's not just Drew Breeze, but unfortunately, football is such a situationally dependent game that we sometimes say, okay, Drew Breeze created Michael Thomas. I think there's a

belief that sometimes there's a belief that it is wrong, but the narrative is that quarterbacks can create elite receivers and that's not necessarily the case. Quarterbacks can create good receivers but they can't create elite receivers. He's been amazing. The one other

name I wanted to throw out here before we move on just in terms of the scheme, and a coach that's done an incredibly good job. I'm going to call him Kerry Staphubiac, whoever the amalgam of the Vikings' offensive coaching staff is, because I feel like that's a situation where the scheme has done such an incredible job. Courtney Cronin from ESPN, one of our friends, tweeted out yesterday, that this season, Kirk Cousins has thrown seven touchdowns

while rolling out to his left. The rest of the NFL has thrown one. That is scheme. And that is design. And I think that they have done a job where you would pick what that offense has done over their quarterback over or for their quarterback over a lot of players this year. I almost forgot to mention that. I wanted to because I thought that stat was incredible. We created a slippery slope last week with the Aaron Reese, Jeff Rebick discussion where we talked about who our friends were.

And now we have to say our friends every time. And now it's going to seem like when we don't say someone's our friend that they're not our friend. Well, Courtney's actually my friend. No, no, no, no, no. I know. But I'm just saying like now we have to establish every time we bring up a name. who our friends are. Aaron was very impressed

that you pronounced his name correctly, by the way. He really appreciated that. A lot of people say rice, he said. Who says that? Which is surprising to me. I have no idea.

The world? But that's what he said to me. He listens to the show. This is not an accomplishment in my book. And now it's time for the State Farm safe bed of the week. The player you can count on. When you need a game plan for protection,

State Farm agents are here to help. With personalized service, agents are available to talk in person over text or through the State Farm app. So go with the one with coverage and agents you can count on. Find an agent in your neighborhood today. Robert, we want to talk about a shockingly hot team,

the Atlanta Falcons and their quarterback, Matt Ryan. Yeah, he gets to play against a team that seems to just really enjoy giving up passing yards. They're 27th and passing DVOA. They've often devote a lot of resources to the run and allow teams to throw the ball pretty consistently. This is the team that gave up 40, 490 yards passing to the Rams, 345 the next week against the Saints, 347 against the Seahawks, 342 against the Cardinals. It has been a lot of huge days

for opposing quarterbacks this year. And I think the Falcons are really hitting their stride. And I envision a big day for Matt Ryan on Sunday. Since week two, the lowest amount of points that the Tampa Buccaneers have given up is 27. That's not good. Matt Ryan that has been consistently good, pretty much all season. It really took the defense to come around for the Falcons for him to start winning games, but that offense is usually pretty efficient. So if the last couple of weeks line up with what we've seen from the Falcons on Sunday and the Bucks are themselves, this is a big performance for Matt Ryan. Yeah, I don't know what his raw stats will end up looking like because they might be winning and he may not have to throw the ball a ton, considering how well the

Falcons defense is played off late. But even if he doesn't put up 400 yards, I assume the efficiency numbers will be there. You can count on Matt Ryan. You can count on State Farm. State Farm, talk to an agent today. All right. Let's get to this week's take shop. Why don't you start us off, buddy? Yeah, saw this on ESPN today. I think Dominic Foxworth was talking about it, and I really liked it, and I want to build upon it. Just stealing now. Just cop and takes. No, you can, you can, this is with credit here.

Listen, there's take thievery everywhere, and giving people credit is not take thievery. Brian Flores should be in the conversation for Coach of the Year. His dolphins have gotten better as the season has gone along. I think that, you know, Barry Jackson from the Miami Herald had this a couple weeks ago. And I think about it a lot where basically the Dolphins ownership is okay with what's going on this year with that franchise. Because I think establishing some wins, establishing competitiveness, getting the first round picks that they have, they're going to have three this year. They're going to have two next year. They are okay with not having the first overall pick because of what Brian Flores is establishing.

I know that it sounds like a joke to just get, you know, they more. might at most have four wins by the end of the season. But I think that's important when everyone assumed that they were stripping down to parts for, you know, O-N-16. I think that, by the way, this is a backdoor way into discuss who actually should win the coach of the year, who's not being discussed enough. And that's Mr. John Harbaal. We talked so much about Sean Payton.

I talked about him a lot when he started winning with Teddy Bridgewater. But right now, I think when you just look at who's built the best coaching job this year, I think it's right now gotta be John Harbaugh, but I'm putting Brian Flores in my top five. Yeah, I mean, I clearly think he deserves mention.

The fact that he's won a game at all is amazing. I mean, that team doesn't look good all the time. They look bad most of the time, but a baseline of competence from them is just really surprising to see. This is where the most outstanding achievement award comes in because Brian Flores

we get it for winning a game against an NFL team. The Harbaugh thing, I can't disagree with you. What he's done is incredible. I also have really enjoyed, have you talked to John Harbaugh much? I've never talked to John Harbaugh before. I have, yes. Yeah, so I don't know John Harbaugh at all.

So those sideline clips of him are just so impressive. And I know they're silly, but just the way that he kind of manages even Lamar in the moment and the decisions he makes. And I've been really impressed just even with those little snippets of seeing the way he connects with his players. It's a small thing, but I do think it matters. And everything about the job he's done and what we've seen from him. him this year has given me a different opinion of him. It's been remarkable.

Yep. You don't have to convince me. It's just been, it's just been awesome. He understands, you know, one of the things that I think sets coaches apart when they get into their second decade of coaching is their ability to adapt and understand where the game is going. And John Harbaal is embracing analytics. He's embracing fourth down. He's obviously taking what he's known about sort of heavy personnel and, you know, going back to his back to his back ground growing up and his father and his brother and all this stuff and adapting it for what it needs to be. Obviously, Greg Roman is leading the charge there, but John Harbaugh, it's obviously going to have some say while the offenses run. And so I've just been hugely impressed with

his adaptability this year. I mean, I was, I went on David Chang's podcast the other week, and Chang was just obsessed with how the Ravens have built around Lamar. And that was the thing worth being obsessed about. And that, that's kind of what got me thinking about just this whole, this whole deal. I just think that, I mean, obviously they had Greg Roman on the staff, but they brought Greg Roman in. Just to have that guy there is something that John Harbaugh probably had a huge hand in. And to promote him to be the offensive coordinator when they knew it was a perfect fit. I mean, these are decisions that end up mattering. So he's done an unbelievable job.

I feel like talking about that in the second decade, I think that's so interesting because in a lot of ways, I feel like the Ravens and the Seahawks have been, they've run strange. parallel paths, both this offseason and this year, right? So you move as a team that's been successful for a while with the same coach, essentially the same front office structure. You're moving into a new era. With Seattle, it was stepping away from the high-priced defensive players, giving Russell Wilson that $35 million a year contract, and really making him the

centerpiece of your franchise. It's the first year where they've really, really leaned into that when it comes to resources. With Baltimore, same thing with Lamar. You're turning over the Flacco Leaf, you're starting a new era. And watching the Ravens completely embrace analytics, forward thinking, open-mindedness, all of these things. And watching the Seahawks not do that, I think the contrast there is very stark. Yep, I agree. And that's how Belichick does it.

That's how Andy Reid does it. And that's how John Harbaugh is doing it. That's how you survive in this league. All right. Mine is kind of tied to something I wrote today. I went to Buffalo and spent some time with Josh Allen. And it was really, I really, I took a lot away from it. And I went in kind of not knowing what to think about Josh Allen.

I'd never had a conversation with Josh Allen. You watched Josh Allen play. And obviously he's a very big, talented guy with a strong arm. And I think I probably had an opinion of how he would think about playing quarterback. And then we actually started talking about it. And if you haven't read the story, I enjoyed doing it. I would encourage you to check it out. it's a lot of just the things that Josh Allen tried to improve from last year to this year.

And my take after the discussions I've had with him and kind of the things I'd looked at is that I do believe that an inaccurate quarterback in college can get more accurate in the NFL. I think the circumstances to do it are extremely difficult. I think it's very rare for a lot of different reasons. But I do think in certain scenarios, it's possible. So the big, when Josh Allen was drafted and both of us kind of were skeptical, we'll say that, we'll skeptical of the pick. The big thing that Bill's fans told us is Matt Ryan was the best example of someone who went from low completion percentage in college, especially early to accurate passer at the NFL level. It is possible. I agree with you. It takes a lot. It takes a lot of mechanical changes. it takes a lot of mental changes, I think.

But quarterbacks can become more accurate. And I don't think it's huge. You know, it reminds me a little bit of, so the one thing in fighting sports that cannot be improved from what I've read and what I've talked to people about is punching power. You're either born with it or you're not. It was a great story a couple of years ago

or last year about Deontel Wilder and Wilders, who's the one of heavyweight champions of the world. And they said that most, his trainer says, the most he's ever seen anybody improve their power from the day they get in the gym is about 10%. And I think that that's probably true at some point of quarterback accuracy. You can improve it, but you're not going to improve a 50%. You're going to improve it 10%. And even that's going to take a lot of work.

When I was talking about it, a lot of things he said to me made a lot of sense. So we were just discussing the idea that this is a guy who went to junior college, who wasn't a high profile recruit, he didn't play football year round. We've talked so much about how the seven-on-seven world has affected these guys, and it's affected their development. He never had that. So when he got to Wyoming, it was a bad program. There weren't very many good players around him. He had to do a lot.

And he wasn't really taught how to shape throws. He pretty much told me, he's like, I just tried to throw the ball really hard all the time. And he compared it to a golf swing. So when you start playing golf and you don't know what you're doing, you just try to swing as hard as you can all the time. And now that I know how to play and I start shaping my shots, the way that's the way that you're that I do that is I slow down a little bit. And what he really worked on this offseason was just understanding, all right, he called it the two ball. It's that 12 to kind of 22 throw, more or less down the sideline than anything else because those are difficult. And shaping that throw to the

second level, because you have to change the arc and trajectory on that ball and that affects your footwork, everything else. So understanding that this guy didn't have the baseline of experience that other guys did, he was never asked to do this type of stuff. And maybe it's possible when you start working on it to improve at it, that makes sense to me. And I was talking to a GM a couple weeks ago about this. And he told me he didn't believe that it's possible because when the bullets start flying, you eventually kind of regress to whatever your natural state is. So even if you've worked on it in a vacuum, you can't get back to that point in live action

because your mechanics and your habits are just going to take over again, which also makes sense. So I get both sides of it. But I do think that if you look at Allen's numbers, he completed 48% of his past. in the intermediate area of the field, 10 to 20 yards last year, by far the worst in the league. It was terrible. This year he's at 64.7, and that's 10th in the NFL. And his deep ball accuracy has now regressed.

And apparently, the PFF guys told me that his accuracy in college was all over the place. The splits from year to year didn't necessarily show a linear progression. So maybe this is a blip. But there's no way to know. And I think the encouraging part of Josh Allen this year, even if he struggled in some areas, is that he is not making the same mistakes. That's the most frustrating thing with young quarterbacks is that they're doing the same stuff wrong.

And he's not. And I think if you're trying to find solace in his development as a Bill's man, you think, all right, this is where I'm getting hope. It's that he's not doing the same stuff wrong. He's been one of the more accurate quarterbacks in the league in that area where he was the worst last season. Yep.

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Yep, that's free money for any online purchase. Go to privacy.com slash NFL and sign up now. Let's get to our three games of the week. Let's start with the game that you're going to, I assume? Yeah. No, I'm, uh, I just like my stuff. spot in the parking lot. Well, I wasn't sure if you were there for the week.

Sometimes I do. No, no, no, no, no. I am. I am. I typically would not, as you know, typically do not like going to games, typically like doing stuff in midweek. But this is a big game and it's a real test for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. I'm more interested to see what the Cowboys are like than the Patriots.

I kind of, we kind of know what the Patriots look like and will look like. I totally agree. As I was thinking about this game, it was all Cowboys-centric because there are some things I want to see against this defense. The Patriots' offense needs to improve, but I'm going to give Bill Belichick and Josh Daniels and Tom Brady the benefit of the doubt, and I'm not going to panic yet, nor ever,

because they're still going to win the Super Bowl. But I just, I'm in agreement with you that it is, it's all Cowboys for me. What do you want to see from the Cowboys? I'd like to see how that defensive line keeps playing. It's one of the bigger developments for me over the last month for them. The Michael Bennett thing was huge.

I mean, they've really gotten a lot out of him. Over the last three weeks, excuse me, four weeks, Michael Bennett has 15 pressures, DeMarcus Lawrence has 14, Malik Collins has 13, all three of those rank in the top 30 among defensive linemen in the NFL. He's really allowed Collins to kind of get unleashed

as the other interior rush are there, and the games they're running with Lawrence are really fun. Just stuff you wouldn't be able to do without a player as dynamic as Michael Bennett. And now the Patriots get Isaiah win back this week. So that's a huge win for them. Robert Quinn is after a hot start is falling off. So I don't think it's necessarily about him shutting down Robert Quinn,

but just the continuity in general of that group is going to matter against this line. And then I'm also just really interested in watching what happens with the Cowboys receivers. How do the Patriots attack them? Is it going to be Gilmore on Gallup, which I assume with Amari getting bracketed? Are they going to run a lot of man coverage because Amori has just been disgusting when a corner has been one-on-one with him this season? I was watching the Cowboy or the Lions game again and the Vikings game too. Every time he's running any sort of comeback, he's just wide open because teams are so scared of him hitting double moves on them.

And the way he gets double moves, it's not this exaggerated thing. It's just little head nods and tiny hesitations. Watching him play the position this year has been awesome. So if they end up putting Gilmore on him for a little bit, that is must watch to me. Yeah, I'm really, really intrigued to see Dak Prescott against this secondary because this secondary does not give up easy throws. They throw so many looks at you. Talk to a couple guys here just talking about how confused quarterbacks have been this year where they just, I mean, the Sam Donald seeing ghost thing, I think is more common than we think. It just happened. Sam Darnell said it and NFL films put it on there, right?

And so I don't, I think that Dak Prescott's ability to make adjustments to see these looks. that Belichick will throw at them. I'm really, I think this is the week. This has the possibility, the possibility to be the week that everyone realizes how good Dak Prescott is. It also has the capability for everyone to realize or be reminded how good the Patriots defense is.

I think if Dak Prescott has a mediocre game, I don't think anybody's going to hold that against Dak Prescott. But I do think he has the launching pad for obviously national game. Everybody is going to be watching this game. It's maybe the highest rated afternoon game of the game of the season. This has the capability to be, even though Dak Prescott is already hugely famous just because of the team he's

played for and the big games he's played for and the plays he's made, if he was able to somehow make the Patriots defense and secondary look mortal, this is a superstar making game for Dak Prescott. I mean, he wins this game. Let's say Seattle loses a couple down the stretch. We're going to get to their game in a second. Why can't Dak Prescott elevate himself into the MVP

conversation? So, I agree. And they'd have to win the division, as we said. Absolutely. So, QB wins league. But I think that there's, the path is there if it happens. I mean, let's say they finish 11 and 5 and win the division. It's absolutely on the table. And I think it could start right here. I'm also, I really want to watch how Belichick attacks them from a pass rush perspective because the line has been really good protecting the quarterback recently. Prescott has the lowest sack rate in the NFL, 8.9% of his dropbacks. He's being pressure to the 24th highest rate in the league. And that's with a couple games like the Jets

one where he was running for his life when Collins and Tyrant Smith weren't playing. So with that line playing as well as it is, now that they're a little bit healthy, I know Collins is banged up, Williams is going to miss this game. But if they send heat, can they keep giving Prescott time? Because if they can, I think he's going to be able to hit some stuff. He's been, looking at the numbers, you know, we talked early in the season about how much play action was helping him everything else. Dax's yards per attempt without play action this year are higher than they are with play action.

It's 8.9 to 8.7. The dude's just been good, period, no matter what they've been asking him to do. Yeah, I totally agree. All right, let's get to our next one here. Seahawks at Eagles. Here's what I want to ask you about this. Okay.

How do you think about the season that Carson Wentz has had so far? If this is the guy Carson Wentz is all year, how are you going to look back on this season? How are you going to think about Carson Wentz moving forward? First of all, it's disappointment. First of all, because I think when you saw Carson Wentz in 2017 before his injury, you think this is a tippy top quarterback of the top top of the elite quarterback,

who we're going to be talking about in Super Bowl contention every year, must watch almost the way we talk about Mahomes and Wilson now, right? That's what he looked like he was on the path to be in 2017. He's not there. He's still heavily dependent on his surroundings. The receivers have let him down. if he hits that pass to Aguilar in the back of the end zone. We're having a different discussion on Wentz, I think.

But you have to... Two things can be true. Carson Wentz is not playing like an elite quarterback this year, and his supporting cast has not helped him become an elite quarterback, okay? I think that there's multiple paths toward looking like the quarterback, the Carson Wentz appeared to be a couple years ago, and none of those things are broken right this year. So I think that he still has a lot of talent.

I still believe in the Eagles infrastructure and sort of the ability to, for them to build a roster around him that is deep and great. That's why we picked them to be the NFC's Super Bowl team. But right now, I'm just, I'm a disappointed dad and everybody. I am not as down on him as you are right now. Okay. Because I just think that, I typically agree with you.

I think that if you're truly, truly great, you can elevate the players around you, even if those players are lacking. But I think his receivers have been so bad this season that that's almost not applicable. And if you look at the numbers, it's not drops. I'm not talking about dropped passes. You know, if you look at the Aguilor play in the back of the end zone, that's not a dropped pass to me. It's a missed pass.

And the Eagles receivers, even if they haven't dropped a ton of balls, which they've dropped enough, they haven't created any receptions. I went back and watched a lot of his incompletions today. And there are so many balls that are glancing off hands. And they're not hitting people in the chest. But if seven more of those get caught, if one more ball was tracked a little better, the Jordan Matthews play against the Patriots last week,

that's not a drop. But it's a play that Dak Prescott's receivers are making this year. You go back and watch that Cowboys game against the Lions. The play that Gallup makes on the left side line where he juggles the ball three times. Carson Wentz hasn't gotten one of those all here. There was another play that Cooper made where he just stuck his hands up at the last second

behind a cornerback and just caught it on the sideline. That gets dropped for Carson Wentz this year. And I'm not saying DAC has been lifted by his receivers. We've spent a huge portion of the show talking about how great Dak has been. But I just think Wenz's past catchers have been so bad. And again, just they've been bad. It's not drops.

They've just been bad. They haven't created it. anything. And that's a huge thing to me. I think that there's a certain level with those guys that if they don't get to, it doesn't matter how elite of a quarterback you are. And I think that's kind of where he's at. There are some awful misfires from him recently. I mean, that Patriots game at the end, it's like what the hell, where the hell was the ball going? But I do think for the most part, he's been a lot better than some of the numbers signify this year. And he's like seventh and expected points added in QBR. It's not that bad. And when you consider how bad the

receivers have been. I feel like he's actually been much better than people think this season. Yeah, I'm in agreement with that. And I think that, you know, okay, he doesn't have an Amari Cooper, even though reports are around that time that the Eagles were in the chase for Mara Cooper, but did not offer a first round pick, right? And I think that we probably all agreed with Halle Rosem at that point. I think anybody saw the Amari Cooper resurgence coming. Amari Cooper so fucking good, dude. I know. I know. We've, we've, we've, we've apologized for that take many times. He's so good. It blows me away.

He's been banged up this season, but there's not even like a Michael Gallup type on the Eagles who just goes out and gets balls that he shouldn't get. That's what you're talking about when you're talking about. Michael Gallup is like 50, it's like 25% better than any of the receivers on the Eagles. Yep, that's what I'm saying. That's what I'm saying. And so it's, but it's not like they don't have a Michael Gallup type.

They don't have anything close to Michael Gallup type right now. Right. It's bad. It's bad. And I just don't know what. you do. Trading deadline is over. You just got to hope against hope that that deep roster that we keep talking about actually reveals itself at some point. It's, you know, Alshan Jeffrey, getting healthy would be important, but Alshan Jeffrey is not the difference between playing

like they are now and running the table. Yeah. No, I agree. I think that Alshan Jeffrey is a fine receiver, but at this point, you know, how good is Alshan Jeffrey? He's going to be on the team next year and beyond. His contract is actually pretty sizable. He has 26 million a dead cap next season. He's turning 30. So it's a pretty expensive deal. It's, oh, they restructured it. That's why. I was like, that doesn't seem like something the Eagles would do. But now that that makes sense. So we'll see. I mean, we'll see if he gets healthy, if they get to Sean back, Jay J. J. Arthega Whiteside in his second season. I still think that this team has a really bright future. But the past catching group has just been an abomination this year.

There's no other way to put it. Okay. Let's get to, I'm excited for Cowboys' Pats, but this game also is just so fun. Packers 49ers is an unbelievable Sunday night game, man. What are you most looking forward to? I just love that old school matchup, man. That's our childhood. Totally with you. I mean, one of my, the more fun games I've ever covered was that Packer 49er game where Kaepernick went crazy. Yeah. There's something beautiful about these two teams playing against each other. Yeah, I'm with you. What am I looking for? I'm looking for Jimmy Garapolo to look good.

I'm still looking. Jimmy Garapolo is becoming another quarterback where because at one point I believed he was really good, I keep watching him. You know, Rissillo, we've talked a little bit about, you know, if you watch a player like you hate him, how does that shape your view? Sure.

Like, I'm going to start doing that with Garapolo because I still believe he's really good. And I have rose-colored glasses when I watch him. And I'm just looking for Garapolo to look like a quarterback who has the capability to get his team to a Super Bowl because I haven't seen lately. I think he's good enough to get his team to a Super Bowl. I don't think he's great. I think Jimmy Garoppolo is fine. You would need elite, elite, elite play from the defense. Yeah. And I think that's probably what they're hoping for. Yeah. So I mean, it's, we'll see what

happens with them in the off season. I'll be curious to see what their plan ends up being with the offense. You know, obviously, Emmanuel Sanders is going to be a free agent. They don't have big time receivers on that team. That's why they went out and traded for Emmanuel Sanders. I assume that's going to be the number one priority for them this year is trying to go out and retool the receiving core a little bit. They've got some young guys, obviously Debo and whatever, but Pettis is on the outs. So if he's just not a part of the plan whatsoever, Markey's Goodwin's not even that expensive. That extension was mostly just, you know, rewarding a guy who had a pretty good year. His cap, it's 5.1 next year. So even just for the speed helmet alone, that's probably worth it. But I just, I would be curious, I would

be surprised if they don't try to go out and get a little bit more past catching talent. They've also missed Kittle for the last couple weeks. It's hard to overstate how valuable Kittle is. He's the best player on that offense. It's not even really close. So not having him really changes the calculus for them. I talked to Garoppolo in June, July, something like that. And I asked him, I said, you know, are the George Kittle-Gron comparisons apt or not?

And he said, no, they are very, very, very apt. They're very similar players. And he started to think, Garoppolo is not Brady and he probably never will be Brady in any stretch of imagination, right? But when Gronk was on the field, it was a different Tom Brady. And I think that an injury to a guy like a point,

an injury to a guy like George Kittle is such an important thing for the entire offense. And we saw that so many times with the Patriots what Gronk being back in the field did. And I wonder if we're going to start to notice that more with the 49ers and Kittle. I wouldn't be surprised at all. I think he is that valuable to that team.

And I know this is going to sound like Sacrilege, but when George Kittle has played this year and what he's been, he's almost as good as Grunk ever was in just everything he gives you. And I think so it's here's the reason I would say he's not. It's because Gronk gave them so much flexibility. The way they could flex Gronk out and just the different things they could be because he could be a ton of different players at once, I think that is what sets him apart.

But when we talk about just overall impact as a blocker and a run and a receiver, I think George Kittle is definitely in the same class as what Rob, Grancowski was at his best. I really do. So here's where I think that it's hard to make the comparison. Because as you said, Gronk was an awesome blocker, obviously an awesome pass catcher, could run with the ball. I think the difference is we saw Grunk so banged up and had his physical worst.

Yeah. And he still made, he still made plays. I mean, look at the freaking Super Bowl where he had his career was about to end and he still basically, you know, had the game ceiling catch. And I think it's really hard to compare Gronk to anybody because he had such a unique career. I'm excited to see how George Kittle sort of makes this journey in his career. But we saw so many different versions of Grunk. And that's why I think there's such a respect for him, both inside the Patriots, around the league. Like, this is a guy who had a bad back basically the entire time.

and so I just it's hard for me to say anybody is as good as gronk because gronk was dealing with so much and maybe listen kiddle was banged up this year it's it's a different deal though he's dealing with so much and again it's grunk sustained it for so long but there just hasn't been a player like kiddle in a very long time that wasn't rob gronkowski because every other tight end that's been really good is really just a past catching guy that blocks little bit. You think about Kelsey, what Ertz has been, those guys that had that sort of production.

Tony Gonzalez at his best was a multifaceted tight end. But in the last decade or so, I don't think there's really been anybody like Kittl. I think Kittle and Grunk are just kind of in a category all of their own. That's what I would say. Yeah, I think that's probably true for right now. Yeah. Okay.

I also think just on a schematic level, the Packers have had a lot of trouble with teams that run a lot of crossing routes, middle of the field stuff, taking advantage of man coverage. I just think we're going to see a ton of that from the 49ers. And I think that if Kittle does play,

his ability to impact the middle of the field where the Packers have struggled this season, I think he could have a monster game. I was looking at the way that Hunter Henry got used against the Packers a couple weeks ago. I think that the 49ers could probably learn a lot from that. So if he's in this game, I think it could make,

this goes without saying, it's going to make a huge difference for San Francisco. On the other side of the ball, I assume that we're going to see a pretty run-heavy game plan from Green Bay. Just because that's not what the 49ers do well. The Packers have been able to run the ball essentially however they've wanted this year. I was watching the Carolina game, and it's really interesting because we have this opinion that you should really spread teams out and that's how you run the ball well right now. But the Packers' run game is so diverse, even when they're going with heavy personnel packages.

there were plays where the Panthers had eight guys in the box, and it just didn't seem to matter. There's tons of kind of weird motions and orb motions and wamblocks. And I just love watching the Packers running game right now. And I think that no matter what sort of resources you contribute or what you place in that area, if you're San Francisco, Green Bay is still going to be able to run the ball. I cannot wait for this game.

Yeah, me too, bud. It's going to be a really fun weekend. All right, Thursday night, what are you thinking? Big game. Big game. I'm not going to be a lot. able to watch, which is kind of a bummer. I'm going to watch tomorrow morning. I'm going to a concert. Who are you seeing? I'm seeing Maddie on. Great stuff. Madion is a French DJ who I really

enjoy. The best part about the show. I don't know. My French DJ knowledge is lacking. The best part about the show is. I know daft punk. It's, there's a lot of daft punk influence. I assume there would be at least one daft punk song. He put out a record last week. It's really fun. I enjoy his shows very much. He's a very talented man. The best part about the show is it starts at 6 p.m. great let me stop you right there we've had we've filled our quota of french j j talk i'm saying it's it's perfect for a 32 year old person it'll be done by 830 okay go ahead texans texans at home you're going with the texans yeah you'll probably go to the texans too i think they're feeling a little bit desperate right now yep i agree all right as always guys thank you so much for listening to the ringer NFL show on the ringer

podcast network we'll be talking to you on sunday night