The Ringer NFL Show - Who’s Making the Leap in 2021?

Episode Date: June 8, 2021

Kevin and Nora are joined by The Ringer’s Danny Kelly and Establish the Run's Evan Silva to discuss which players and teams they think are going to take a step forward in 2021 (4:08). Hosts: Kevin ...Clark and Nora Princiotti Guests: Danny Kelly and Evan Silva Production Assistant: Isaiah Blakely Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 What If the Len Bias story hosted by Jordan Ritter-Con is the ringer's latest narrative podcast. Episodes 1 and 2 launch on June 9th, and you can find new episodes every Wednesday on the Book of Basketball 2.0 feed. Here's a quick trailer. You've heard his name, Lynn Bias, 1980s phenom, second pick in the NBA draft. And then, cocaine, tragedy, one of the most shocking deaths in sports history. 35 years later, Bias' legacy is still making an impact. From Spotify and the Ringer Podcast Network,
Starting point is 00:00:36 this is What If, the Lynn Bias story. I'm Jordan Ritter-Con. It is the Ringer NFL show, a part of the Ringer podcast network. I'm Kevin Clark, joined today by some great football minds. Danny Kelly, Evan Silva, of Establish the Run, and Nora Preciati. Evan, what's going on?
Starting point is 00:01:00 What's going on? I'm glad we're running it back. We had a good year last year. I don't know if you kept track of our making the leap predictions from last year. But we had some good ones. We had some great ones. And that's why we brought you back.
Starting point is 00:01:14 And so if anybody doesn't know, we had Evan on last year, around this time, actually, for The Leap Show. That's what we call it. We've done it almost every year. We've had this podcast. And it's just who's making the leap?
Starting point is 00:01:24 That's it. Could be anybody. Could be a player. Could be a coach. Could be a franchise. Could be a coordinator. Does not matter. It's whoever's making a leap.
Starting point is 00:01:32 Danny, are you excited? Have you been on this type of show before? Not that I can remember. remember, I'm very excited. I'm a little nervous about my picks. I'm hoping Evan won't just tear them to shreds. No, but I, yeah, I feel good about my picks. It's always one of those things where it's a little risky to pick some of these guys
Starting point is 00:01:47 because they could just, all three of my guys, well, four of my guys, I pick four. Could go either way, so we'll see. Nora, are you fired up? I'm always fired up. I was about to say I'm back on land because when we did our Julio Jones emergency podcast, I was in a car, but that's also land. In New Jersey. I'm back in my apartment.
Starting point is 00:02:06 So it's basically international waters. Right. There's like the law of the seas I think applies in the New Jersey Turnpike. But I'm fired up. I'm back home, like back in my sort of natural habitat. So ready to rumble. I want to know who you guys picked last week or last year, I should say. Who were your big winners from last year?
Starting point is 00:02:23 I literally, I remember that Evan picked the Cowboys to make the leap. And that didn't work. But he also did, what we also did was you picked Josh Allen. That was the big thing for me. Oh. Nice. Josh Allen, when I was thinking about this last night,
Starting point is 00:02:39 I was thinking about Evans picks, I thought about those two because I actually, spoiler alert, have the Cowboys this year. But I also remember how good that Josh Allen call was. Also had Arthur Smith
Starting point is 00:02:49 becoming an NFL head coach, which everything looks like it would have been easier to predict when it actually happens and you can look back in hindsight, but you got to get hit there. I will say this. There's a reason we brought Evan back.
Starting point is 00:03:03 There's a reason we brought Evan back. There are very few people who think about the sport better than Evan Silva. A lot of news we're not going to get to. John James signed with the Ravens for his horrific Achilles injury. He's going to get some money good for him. Essentially, he lost a bunch by training offsite during a weird NFL, NFL PA standoff. The bill say they're going to have training camp in their home training facility and not in Rochester at St. John's Fisher. That's interesting because I think there are a lot of people who thought that the NFL was going to try as much as possible to just run it.
Starting point is 00:03:35 back and do the normal stuff they did in 2019. This is the first kind of concession that it still will be a little weird and there still will be logistical challenges. U.S. Mets national team beat Mexico last night and Logan Paul went the distance with Floyd Mayweather. So there's just a lot of sports right now. All right. We're going to get to the first leap and it's Danny Kelly because Danny, Danny was worried
Starting point is 00:03:57 that his picks were going to overlap with ours. So he shared his before we started and none of them overlap with ours. but he had one that was really intriguing, and we're going to let him lead it off. Danny, your first leap. I feel like I'm going out on a limb a little bit here, but I'm going with Jalen Hertz for the Eagles. So kind of big picture, obviously.
Starting point is 00:04:17 He came in later in the season and was really exciting, I think, especially from a fantasy point of view, but he did struggle as a passer. I mean, 52% completion rate, six touchdowns, four interceptions as a pass, or 77 rating, or 77 rating. and just a 4.1 touchdown rate.
Starting point is 00:04:34 So as a passer, he wasn't great. As a runner, obviously, he kind of changed their offense, and that was very exciting. But I do think he has a pretty strong chance of really improving from year one in that rookie season where basically just that entire offense was a mess. Like, they didn't have any good weapons, really. They had a lot of injuries on the offensive line.
Starting point is 00:04:55 And for reference, obviously, these are apples and oranges. They're not the same player, but I went back and looked at Lamar Jackson's numbers. from his rookie season when he kind of came in later in the season. He, so Hertz's PFF passing grade was 57.5, and he had 148 passing attempts last year, which is bad. It was actually worse than Wentz, which is saying something. But for reference, Lamar Jackson, his rookie year,
Starting point is 00:05:19 58.6 passing grade on 170 passes, almost identical number of passes. And then he made a massive jump, obviously, in the next season, when they kind of committed to him, changed the offense around, him. He went from a 58.6 passing grade to 85 passing grade in 2019, you know, and then obviously won the MVP was, you know, this revelation, obviously. I'm not saying Hertz is going to be that guy, he's going to be like an MVP or anything like that, but I think all the variables that surrounded him last year, it's just, it was going to be hard for any rookie, let alone a second round rookie to come in and really kind of like shine. So I'm looking at the improvements to his skill
Starting point is 00:05:59 group. I think getting healthy Jalen Rieger back in and having him in the slot, I think is a good fit for him. Devante Smith, I'm really bullish on. I think he can be kind of like an immediate impact player as like a go-to guy for him. They have a couple, you know, role player type guys that could play on the outside. Travis Fulgum, you know, showed up at times last year. It was really kind of a surprise. Maybe it's one of Quez Watkins or High Tower kind of stretching the field on the outside. Obviously Goddard, Miles Sanders. And then the offensive line, which was really banged up throughout the whole season, I think has a chance to make a leap.
Starting point is 00:06:32 So basically I'm saying, the big question mark to me is obviously what happens with Nick Siriani, the offensive coordinator, or the head coach slash black color. Yeah, like, what does he, what does he bring? Who isn't an offensive coordinator, but seems like an offensive coordinator? It's head coach Nick Seriani.
Starting point is 00:06:49 That was very telling. Yeah, right? I guess, like, the big question for me is what he'll bring and what kind of offense he'll design and whether he'll be really, really, really, tailoring it to Hertz or trying to do his offense and like make Hertz kind of adapt to that. I don't know how that's going to all go. But I think if they are willing to tailor an offense around Hertz and like do what essentially what the Ravens do with Lamar Jackson, I think Hertz can make a big
Starting point is 00:07:12 jump. From a fancy point of view, I think he's going to be awesome. But from a real life football point of view, I think he has to really improve as a passer to like really hold on to this job. So I'm expecting a big jump from him. I think it's just going to be really, they're going to be one of the most interesting offenses to me in the NFL. So sorry, that was long-winded. No, it's great. I'm excited about Hertz. Evan, where are we on Jalen Hertz and the Eagles in general? Well, I hope that D.K., the Dark Knight, is correct about this because I have MVP bets on Jalen Hertz at 101, 801 and 60. Yes. Nice. And I think he's down to like 40 or 50 to 1 now. But yeah, the, he's a dynamic dual threat quarterback playing behind what I think.
Starting point is 00:07:55 think has a chance to be if they can just keep this offensive line healthy. Now they have depth because, you know, their backups got experienced last year because like everybody went down. Yeah. If this offensive line can come together and reach its potential, I think they could have a, they could be a dominant rushing team, you know. So I think that it's, it could also crash and burn. I think the Eagles are aware of that. They're sort of, it's like a very boomer bus season. I think they either want to go like four and 13 or they want jalen hurts to run away with this job and go like you know 11 and what's what's 17 minus 11 11 11 and 6 you know like and win the division i think they can i mean this division is it's it's up for grabs like it is pretty much every year at this
Starting point is 00:08:43 point and um i think there's a lot of upside there with jelan hertz yeah i mean it's still i mean i was going through his splits this morning and obviously there's still just a lot of small sample sizes like, you know, he, I led the NFL last year in yards per attempt on play action, but I think he had like 50 dropbacks. So it's just there, there were flashes there, but I just need to see a bigger body of work. Nora, is there any hope for the Eagles to actually be legitimately good this year? Uh, any hope? Yeah, sure. There's always hope, Kevin. I mean, so I don't think they'll be a very good team. However, I do think what's interesting about this conversation is that I think there needs to be a little bit of a shift in,
Starting point is 00:09:23 how we talk about what these dual threat quarterbacks can provide teams where I think there's a tendency to say that they're kind of, you know, the variance between the high end and the low end is like so huge. And I actually think, and there are a lot of smart people that I think had had parts of this conversation surrounding Mack Jones on the other side before the draft, where if a quarterback can influence the run game really significantly, it actually. actually raises the floor pretty significantly because there's two things that the guy can do, right? It's like if the passing game is not working, at least you have something to fall back on. I think there's a tendency just because traditionally we're so much more used to seeing pure pocket passers to say, oh, those are the safe guys. Those are the ones where, you know, we're used to seeing it. So it must be less risky. And I don't think that's quite right because, you know, and again, I'm sort of, relating this to pieces of the conversation that was surrounding Mac Jones before the draft,
Starting point is 00:10:27 if you think about that, okay, if he's not a good passer pretty quickly, what's he really doing for an offense? Jalen Hertz is kind of the opposite of that conversation, right? Where there should realistically usually be some things that he can do. So I think there's more of a chance that he's kind of a a stabilizer and someone that can get them moving in the right direction, then I think we tend to assume there is or say there is, just because there are less examples of having seen it work out. That said, I just think with where their offensive line is, with just what we saw towards the end of the year,
Starting point is 00:11:11 especially last year, there's too many questions there for me to say, like, oh, yeah, I think the Eagles could be really good next year. next year is the year that they're looking at, I don't think that's the case. But I do like the idea that Hertz kind of has these multiple ways that he can help them. And that's always a good position to be in.
Starting point is 00:11:29 He's a really good runner. I think people talk about, you know, Lamar Jackson, obviously, Kyler Murray, those guys are extremely, extremely explosive runners. Hertz isn't that type of runner, or he's not that explosive. But to me, he's like a running back.
Starting point is 00:11:45 He's a very good runner. He could be used in red zone stuff. as a scrambler, he just picks up yards. He's got like kind of gazelle-like speed where it's not, you know, it's not like explosive, explosive type of runner, but he picks up chunks of yards. He's, like you said, absolutely gives them a foundation to kind of like build that offense around the run game.
Starting point is 00:12:03 And then if they can kind of, you know, tick up in offensive or in a pass efficiency, I think that could be, you know, where he really makes a jump. So I'm excited to see it. And I think it's important to remember that, you know, when he played last year, I mean, the supporting cast was just decimated. I mean, he was out there playing with a bunch of scrubs.
Starting point is 00:12:22 You know, like Greg Ward was, by the end of the season, was like their best receiver. He was the guy catching all the balls. And their offensive line was decimated. So it's going to be really interesting to see him with a healthy supporting cast, at least to begin the year. The Eagles injury problems have been, it's been a multi-year problem, though.
Starting point is 00:12:42 I have a question. Who has bigger offensive coordinator energy? Zach Taylor or Nick Sirion. I will give the nod to Zach Taylor because of the of the McVeigh thing because he he's like the guy that everybody lifts up as example of like this guy hung out with Shaw McVeigh for 15 minutes and then and then became an NFL coordinator. I would say that. Obviously, Zach Taylor had credentials and all that stuff, but that I don't think Zach Taylor would be head coach if he had not met Shaw McVay. Does anyone have Zach Taylor on their list today? No, no, we do not.
Starting point is 00:13:18 Got it. All right, before we get to Evans' first one, Danny, since you state your claim on this, how many wins do the Eagles get in 2021? Oh, my gosh. I'm going to say nine. Beautiful. All right, Evan, first leap.
Starting point is 00:13:31 Yeah, I'm going to stay right along the same lines. Actually, a guy who played in college for a minute with Jalen Hertz, and that is Tua Tagovaola. Oh, okay. He finishes top five in, an NFL MVP voting. This is another guy that, I mean, there are still nice long lines where you can bet Tua at 66 to 1, 60 to 1. You know, Jalen Hertz has moved into like the 40 to 50 to 1 range.
Starting point is 00:14:03 But I think that the rhetoric surrounding Tua right now is really negative and probably deservedly so because he did not play well in his rookie year chances. and then he recently admitted publicly that he wasn't 100% familiar with the Dolphins Playbook, and that sounds really bad on its face. But, you know, we have to understand that the Dolphins 2020 playbook, that was almost entirely designed by Chan Galey for Ryan Fitzpatrick. Those guys were super tight from Buffalo. You know, Chan Galey knew all of Ryan Fitzpatrick's strengths and weaknesses,
Starting point is 00:14:39 what do you like to do. The Dolphins' plan was to play too sparingly, at all as a rookie coming off the hip fracture, the dislocation, that was an injury that was commonly compared at the time to Bo Jackson's injury. So this was not a playbook designed for Tua, and he had almost zero practice time with it because there was no preseason, barely any training camp due to COVID. During the regular season, the first string quarterback takes all the reps. You know, the backup is coming in and getting three to five reps per practice. If you listen to the coaches talk about how practice goes,
Starting point is 00:15:15 Tua was recovering from a brutal injury at the time. But, you know, this was still a player that was picked fifth overall in the draft, a guy that everyone loved coming out of Alabama from a skill set standpoint. He was superbly efficient by every measure in college. He's a good athlete. He relegated Matt Jones, a top 15 NFL pick to the bench at Alabama. He forced Jalen Hertz, a second round pick, to transfer to Oklahoma. And now the dolphins are surrounding.
Starting point is 00:15:44 I love what the dolphins did. I mean, they just went all in on Tua, which is exactly what they should have done. They're bringing back to Vante Parker. They signed Will Fuller. They drafted Jalen Waddle. Preston Williams is back as the fourth receiver. Lynn Bowden is the fifth receiver. Mike Jaseki was Tua's most trusted target last year.
Starting point is 00:16:03 And I think is still an ascending player. Changaley is gone. And they're designing the offense for Tua now. and I think that we're going to see him take a second year leap. I just think that, you know, we've just gotten way too low on Tua after a small sample size in a really tough year in which he was coming off that brutal injury. Wow. I did not expect that name.
Starting point is 00:16:26 I love that case. Nora, where are you on Tua heading into 2021? Because I thought about him for about five seconds when I was putting together this list and decided that there were just too many question marks. Where are you on Evan's point? I'm totally compelled by that argument. I'm like you. I just feel like there's so many question marks that I'm a little bit like,
Starting point is 00:16:45 let's wait and see. But I do think the one thing that I really feel strongly about here is that the playbook stuff is just getting so, so, so way overblown. It really doesn't matter. And you know what? He wouldn't have said it if it had been this big scandalous dramatic thing. It's hard to choose your words perfectly every single time you're in front of a microphone or on the phone with someone.
Starting point is 00:17:08 Like, I just don't think that that is a significant factor in what happened last season, or at least as it would seem like something where he's saying, like, I didn't study hard enough or something. That's just, if it were the case, he wouldn't have said it. And it doesn't matter. It's what we said last week where I said, you know, sometimes, uh, the media can misconstrue accountability, right? Like, he was, I think he could have been.
Starting point is 00:17:37 been making the point, like, I'm, I didn't know my, the playbook well enough. And then it gets turned into, you know, I never picked up the playbook. Evan, let me ask you. So if you're high on Tua, how then does the AFC East race shake out? Are they just a cut below Buffalo? Do you expect them to even push Buffalo? How do you kind of see that? Yeah, I think that in the AFC East, Buffalo is in a tier onto their own. Yeah, I agree. But, you know, crazy stuff happens every year. Um, I don't think the dolphins are far behind them. You know, I think it's, I think it goes, you know, pretty much just how it finished last year, bills, dolphins, Patriots, Jets.
Starting point is 00:18:19 But, you know, like, I bet the dolphins to win the division at plus 333. So, you know, I think they're a good team. I love the way that they, they've been really analytically built. I mean, they have placed a great emphasis on past defense that allows them to, you know, be really aggressive with the Blitz. And then they come back and they bring in Jalen Phillips, who I think was the best edge rusher in the draft. So now they're supplementing what was a pretty weak front seven group,
Starting point is 00:18:48 but it looked better. I mean, they had a top 10 pressure rate, according to sports info solutions last year, despite not really having any big name pass rushers. And I like the chances that they have a young, improving offensive line. And again, the weapons that they put around to are really, really impressive.
Starting point is 00:19:07 I mean, Will Fuller, you can go back and look at his, like, his, his on-off splits with Deshawn Watson in Houston. And whenever Will Fuller was playing, Deshawn Watson averaged, like, you know, a yard and a half more per attempt through at a much higher touchdown rate. Like, Will Fuller is an actual difference maker when he's on the field. And I think Jalen Waddle could be similar in that respect. And Jalen Waddle, he played with Tua at Alabama. So I just, everything that the dolphins have done has been really thought out.
Starting point is 00:19:39 And I love the trajectory of the organization. I'm an agreement with the trajectory of the organization part and everything being thought out. It's perfect. Danny, where are you on Tua and the dolphins hitting into 2021? I love this. I almost put Tua, too, because, but I ultimately kind of went another direction because I was like, this one to me, like the Hertz thing, has a little bit of a boom-bust thing. Because, like, Tua, you know, with any quarterback, any young quarterback, it's really
Starting point is 00:20:05 tough to know how they're going to progress. I really like this, though, because I'm a to a believer. And I think, like having laid out, their offenses just can be so much more talented this year than it was last year. Tua was in the same situation. It starts, like, just
Starting point is 00:20:20 playing with a bunch of, not scrubs, but like basically role players. Now he's going to have potential stars to throw to, I think Will Fuller, the way he can stretch out the defense is really going to fit Tua well because Tua is a rhythm. and he's like a rhythm, quick release, quick processing type passer.
Starting point is 00:20:39 He's got to get more comfortable, like, in the short intermediate area, I think. And then, like, from there, he can build a deep game and, like, threaten defense is deep. I think Will Fuller does a great job of stretching the defense. Like, guy like Jaylen Wattle can do both the deep stuff, but also, like, a lot of yards after reception type stuff, like where you just dump it off to him and he picks up 20 yards on, like, a crosser or something like that. So I love it. I think it's going to be really fun to watch. I think their skill player group is pretty underrated going into the season.
Starting point is 00:21:08 Like even like Bowden and I like a lot. Like Jakeem Grant is definitely a role player, but he's got like a lot of explosiveness. They can use them in certain ways. So I love this pick. I think it's going to be fun to watch. Irwin Bowden was a third round pick of the Raiders, then they just cut them.
Starting point is 00:21:23 That's a bizarre thing. I really like that too. Yeah, they try to tournament to running back. Try to tournament to running back right away, which just didn't work. He gave an interview to Tower Dun, I think. a couple weeks ago where you shed some light on that that it was pretty interesting.
Starting point is 00:21:36 Anyway, Norr, Prince, Yaida, your first leap. All right. So we've been doing some sort of boom or bust ones. Mine is different. It is the Jacksonville Jaguars who won one game last season. Oh, no. Okay. So there's room for stepping and leaping.
Starting point is 00:21:53 Oh, boy. Are we going from one to is the leap from one win to two wins? Two wins. Trevor Lawrence doubles the Jaguars season over season, win total. No. What I'm, what I'm projecting is a leap, not a step. And I'm going to say that the Jaguars are going to win eight games. Trevor Lawrence obviously would be, wow, bullet point number one in any argument about this. But I have three others that I think are getting a little bit, uh, under discussed
Starting point is 00:22:22 at this point. First of all, really pretty good skill position group down there in Jacksonville. and particularly if they are either playing from behind or just needing to have their offense clicking to stay in games and Trevor Lawrence being. Yeah, they got Tebow. Is it Tebow taking the leap. Tim Tebow is not a part of this conversation.
Starting point is 00:22:49 The only conversation Tim Tebow is not a part of is this one. But if Trevor Lawrence has to be a little bit aggressive downfield, I think DJ Chark and Marvin Jones in particular are going to be really, really, really great for him. I mean, Chark was great with deep balls. Jones is a fantastic contested catch receiver. I really, really, really think there's potential there. They are going to have to play with three and four wideouts a ton just because they don't really have tight ends with apologies to not Tim Tebow, but Chris Manhart's and James O'Shaughnessy.
Starting point is 00:23:18 That's one. Number two, I think Urban Meyer is getting a little underrated. Because even if you think that this, that his head coaching era in Jacksonville, maybe won't work out as well as. they hope. I'm, I'm not totally sure where I fall on there on that. I don't know how much long-term potential I think it has. But what's getting lost in that, I think, is that Urban Meyer is pretty good at injecting football teams with some juice, at least in the short term. I don't see a world in which he goes into Jacksonville and just nothing happens, right? There will be some energy there. There will be some sort of culture change. And I think in the short term, the prospects for it could be
Starting point is 00:23:59 pretty exciting. The next thing is that they have one of the most improved secondaries of any team in the NFL. I mean, they played in particular a ton of single high safety coverages last season and they just did not have the athletes for it. I think that'll stay consistent because Myers College teams have done a lot of that and then Baltimore does a lot of that and that's where Joe Cullen comes from. But when you add Shaq Griffin, Ray Sean Jenkins and then draft Tyson Campbell and Andre Sisko, there's just so much more that they can do where if they're still playing that way, those guys aren't going to get burned quite as consistently if the corners are left on an island or if the safeties need to be able to cover a lot of territory. And then you have Tim Tebow.
Starting point is 00:24:45 So obviously, I don't know. I will say Van Laithen and I did a locker room last night after the Logan Paul fled my weather fight. And he correctly threw out Tim Tebow as a great candidate in three years to be in one of these celebrity boxing matches. Oh, God. All right. So let's unpack this. I think I actually disagree with one part of what you said, Nora, which is I think that Urban Meyer is among the boomiest and bustiest people in football in 2021.
Starting point is 00:25:14 Like, I think there's a real case to be made that he could succeed. And it reminds me a little bit, you know, Chip Kelly had some instant success. And there were a couple of reasons for that. Number one, and I don't know how big of it. of a thing that was, but he stacked his staff with a lot of people who knew the NFL really well, and then he was going to handle kind of the college flavor and the college scheme element on top of the of the pro stuff. When I look at urban staff, Darrell Beville is the offensive coordinator.
Starting point is 00:25:43 Brian Schottenheimer is the quarterback's coach, and obviously we all have had our problems Brian Chottonheimer, but I'm sure he can be a good quarterbacks coach. He's not calling the plays. Joe Cullen is a defensive coordinator. They're just stacked with NFL veterans. Bob Sutton is a senior defensive assistant. I don't even know what that means, but he's around and giving NFL takes. So I think you're going to see a nice blend of kind of forward-thinking schemes with things that can work in the NFL, even though those things are becoming one and the same, more so every day.
Starting point is 00:26:13 But I think that this can generally work. I just don't know how much talent they're going to have and I don't know what the learning curve is going to be. Chip Kelly came into a situation that was significantly more talented. roster. It was not a rookie quarterback. Evan Silva, 2021 Jaguars, do anything for you? Yes, yes. I like this take. Yeah, I think that this is also a division that is up for grabs. Now, the Titans just went and got Julio Jones. The Titans are one of the thinnest teams in the NFL. They had to go get Julio Jones. I mean, if they were to lose A.J. Brown or Derek Henry, all of a sudden, they have like no playmakers. So they had to go get Julio Jones. How many games can you really count
Starting point is 00:26:56 on Julio Jones to play at age 32 after he could not overcome, you know, hamstring injury pretty much all of last season. He remains highly, highly effective. But then you go to the Colts and the Colts have been good, like pretty consistently good over the past couple of years. Chris Ballard has built, you know, a team that with a really solid foundation. But how good is Carson Wentz going to be? He was like the worst quarterback in the NFL last year.
Starting point is 00:27:21 I think Trevor Lawrence is going to be one of these quarterbacks. You know, I think to me, the number one. the greatest ability that a quarterback can have is to make the players around him look better. And I think that Trevor Lawrence is going to be able to do that quickly. I think that the comparison between him and Andrew Luck, who came into the league right away and made that team significantly better, made other guys play better, essentially. You know, I think that Trevor Lawrence can be able to do that. Like, you're going to see the offensive line, which returns all five starters.
Starting point is 00:27:52 The offensive line all of a sudden is going to look pretty good in Jacksonville. You know, they're not protecting, you know, Gardner Men's shoes, holding the ball way too long in the pocket or, you know, Nick Foles who couldn't, you know, cannot move or Jake Luton, you know, all these guys they've been trotting out over the past few years. All of a sudden, these players are going to look better with Trevor Lawrence in there. I'm also a believer in Daryl Bevel. I like this take a lot. I did not know that I needed to be reminded of Jake Luton's existence, but I'm glad. I'm glad that got back on the radar because I had not thought about. him in a long time. Danny Kelly, Jaguars. Yeah, I'm into this. I'm into this take also. I think I've been kind of like a quiet supporter of Daryl Bevel over the years. I think he's a pretty good match with
Starting point is 00:28:37 Trevor Lawrence as a rookie. Just because he went through the same thing with Russell Wilson, like bringing him a little bit along a little bit slowly. He's a former quarterback himself. He kind of knows how that all works, trying to give him enough layup plays. But also I think he's been very, like his career, I think has been defined by his ability to design offenses. that can go deep and have explosive plays. And so, or at least since he was in Seattle, I don't know about before that. I can't remember really what they were like before that.
Starting point is 00:29:04 But like in Seattle and Detroit, certainly that's been like a big characteristic for his offenses. And so I think Lawrence is a perfect fit. It's not hard to imagine Lawrence having a season like we saw Justin Herbert have last season, you know, I think they have pretty similar like size skill set, you know, all that stuff. And I think, you know, he also adds as a little bit. as a runner. He's a very athletic guy.
Starting point is 00:29:27 So I don't know. I'm pretty excited about watching this offense. I'm afraid to get too excited about it. But I mean, all the points to Nora made are right. Like they have really good skill players, I think, on it. Like, you didn't mention Leviska-Schnell, who also is a guy who can make a jump this year. They got Travis Etyn in the first round. He could make an impact. I mean, James Robinson's still there.
Starting point is 00:29:47 You know, so they got in the offensive lines. I think the defense, too, is a very interesting one because I look at their roster. And I see a lot of guys that I really like coming out. If they have, they need to have like, they need to coales and like have everybody come together and like, you know, figure it out. But like Josh Allen, good pass rusher like Kavalon Chasen or Kalaun Chasen, sorry, he like struggled early on, I think, but he kind of showed some flashes so maybe he could make a second year jump. They still have Tave and Bryant. You know, there's some good skill player or there's some good skill, some talented guys on his defense, especially in the secondary like he said. So I don't know.
Starting point is 00:30:21 It's one of those things where things need to come together and they can't. like just keep underachieving. But there's certainly the talent on this team to make a big jump. I think Trevor Lawrence is the key to that. And I don't know, it seems like there's a good shot that he's going to be a really good rookie. This is another one where where I really wanted to be able to have the sort of cleanly packaged take of they'll go 500. And then I was like, wait, you can't go 500 anymore. I think they will make the leap from one win to at least two.
Starting point is 00:30:53 And I do agree with you that Urban Myers becoming a little bit underrated. But I think obviously the jury's still out until we see a body of work. All right. My first one, we'll do it quickly. I think everything is setting up for a leap from Joe Burrow. So statistically, the biggest jump in a career is from year one to year two. And obviously that that's been a pattern in some of our takes already. And I think that when you look at how the Bengals are built,
Starting point is 00:31:23 their team. Obviously, Jemar Chase is a wonderful pick. T. Higgins is good. Tyler Boyd, I think there's going to be some extra chemistry there, even though Burrow obviously had the injury last year. And I think that the offensive line, while still not good, is okay. PFF did a ranking of the 2021 offensive lines. I think that the Bengals are 24th, which is not what you want,
Starting point is 00:31:44 but it's not, it's not Burrow being on the ground every time. It's not David Carr 20 years ago. vision is Joe Burrough's superpower. And a lot of times I actually dismiss the argument that, oh, everything needs to be perfect for this guy to break out because I think if you can only, if you can only play well in certain environments, then you're probably not only player, right?
Starting point is 00:32:06 But, but with Joe Burrow, I think giving him exactly what he needs, and from the skill position standpoint, the Bengals are doing that, I think that that is going to lead to his breakout. I think that getting a bunch of guys out into the route and Joe Burrow using his superhuman vision is exactly what he needs. I don't think the Bengals are particularly smart organization.
Starting point is 00:32:25 I don't think they're going to be all that good this year. What I do think is that we're going to see the Joe Burrow in 2021 is on the superstar track and that we're going to know exactly how good he's going to be by, say, November. Danny Kelly, Joe Burrow. Yeah, I like this one. And I think the big thing, and he's even mentioned this in interviews recently is he needs to be a better deep passer. Like he was a really good, really accurate. There's some arm strength questions.
Starting point is 00:32:51 There's some arm strength questions. There's certainly some arm strength questions. Like he's not the type of guy he's going to like drive it in the wind and rain and all that. And like, you know, like a Stafford or whatever. Josh Allen. Yeah, Josh Allen. He's extremely accurate though. Like ball placement is on point.
Starting point is 00:33:07 That was kind of the one thing we didn't really see as a rookie. And I think there's a lot of reasons for that. Number one, he was constantly running for his life. That was a big issue with offense of line. I think the offensive line could get better. And number two, I'm not going to blame everything on AJ Green, but he was just not good. Like he, his like target,
Starting point is 00:33:26 like I can't remember what his catch rate was, but it was a bizball. Just saw a ton of targets. Basically, going from AJ Green to a guy like Jamar Chase, where they got Chase, Boyd, and Higgins, you know, running routes on the outside. I think that will really help.
Starting point is 00:33:42 And I think we're going to see a big uptick in his efficiency seeing is his ability to push the ball deep and that could open everything up for the offense. And so that's the big thing to watch for me. You know, obviously, like you said, the arm strength issues are a thing, but I think there's plenty of very athletic or sort of very accurate passers that don't have elite arm strength that are, that just get by because they, they can put it exactly where it needs to be. So I see him as that type of guy. Evan, let me put you on the spot here.
Starting point is 00:34:06 After 2021, what does the race between the best 2020 quarterback look like between Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow? even I would put Tua in that conversation. How are we ranking at the end of this season? I mean, I guess I'm a slave to the recency bias, and I'll go Herbert, Burrow, Tua. But I don't know, it's an interesting take because, you know, you got Joe Burrow who,
Starting point is 00:34:32 so much of his game is relying on athleticism. He's coming off not just an ACL tear, but, I mean, he tore multiple ligaments in his knee. And the Bengals still don't take the offensive linemen. I love Jamar Chase. I mean, dude is an absolute baller. You would have taken Sewell. Right.
Starting point is 00:34:51 And then in the second round, they come back and I take Jackson Carmen, who, you know, I don't, I mean, I don't profess to be, you know, some great offensive line analysts, but the offensive line analyst that I've read about Jackson Carmen, that not a big fan of him, also coming off an injury. And I don't know. I work with, like, data analysts and dudes who win a ton of. of money playing DFS and these guys love the Bengals this year. They love Joe Burrow this year. They're like, Sylva, you're way too low on them. I'm like, you guys are way too high on them. This is going to be actually one of the, it's an internal debate that we're having right now a little bit. The numbers are supporting you, Kevin Clark. I could tell you that. Yes. Yes. As someone who
Starting point is 00:35:37 consistently loses at DFS, I feel vindicated. As someone who just constantly bets on Colin Moracow at random golf tournaments and loses. I feel I bet Colin every tournament too. Hey, ball striking over and over again. Use those irons, baby. Norr, Princiotti, uh, same kind of question here is, is, is when we look at the 2020 quarterbacks, um, what are we going to think of, of Joe Burrow this year? Does he make a leap? Does Tua leap him? Uh, does Herbert extend his lead? Where are we? I just think that it's easier. So the thing with, I actually almost picked, um, T. Higgins as one of mine. So I'm kind of with you. I just am scared because of the physical elements. And normally, if it were like Evan said, if it were just in ACL, I would feel like, you know what? We actually
Starting point is 00:36:26 make too big of a deal out of these things. He's super young. His body will recover. But I just, I just want to see it. And I do agree with you that there's this idea that they didn't do anything to upgrade their offensive line, which is not the case. Right. They got Carmen. Riley Reef will see what happens. But I just, the injury is what scares me because it takes everything coming together from, you know, just the normal things the teams have to do to kind of coalesce, but then you add in the extra challenge of getting over that physically. And I just feel, you know, there's there's always teams and players who you're more,
Starting point is 00:37:09 I'll believe it when I see it than with others. I see the logic for the Bengals, but I'm just a little bit like, okay, let's, let's visualize it happening on a, on a field first. I get that. I get that. Ojo Sinko was on Slinojaday a couple days ago, and he said that he thinks the Bengals have a top three wide receiver set. I actually don't remember if we were recording then, but there it is. There's the take.
Starting point is 00:37:32 Oja Cinco also said that he would get 750 yards on this, on the 2021 since Danny Bengals. So it was interesting, interesting football takes there. Evan Silva, let's get your second leap. I'm going to go with the 49ers. The 49ers go from 6 and 10 and last in the NFC West to Super Bowl winners, the 49ers. Last year I picked the Cowboys to win the Super Bowl.
Starting point is 00:37:58 So, you know, keep this in context. But I like the 49ers this year. So the first thing that stands out about last year's 49ers versus this year's 49ers is injury regression because the 49ers are in line for a ton of positive injury regression to the mean football outsiders does an injury index report each offseason and quantifies how much each team was affected by injuries in the previous year. And according to football outsiders, no team in the NFL was affected by injuries and COVID more than the 49ers last year.
Starting point is 00:38:29 They were affected by injuries and illnesses the second most of any NFL team since 2001. It was actually a miracle that this team won six games. They were many instances last year where they were. The 49ers were trotting out full on second and third string position groups. I think the defense is going to be really good again this year with Nick Bosa back. I think the 49ers can drop Trey Lance whenever he's ready into a really favorable situation for a rookie. It's Kyle Shanahan's system, of course, where Robert Griffin, the third ripped up the league as a rookie and Matt Schaubb back in the day with Gary Kubiak and Kyle Shanahan as the OC led the NFL in passing yards. Debo, Samuel, Brandon, I, Upe, George Kittle.
Starting point is 00:39:11 these guys make life easier on the quarterback because they're run-after catch maniacs. And according to Vegas win totals, the 49ers have the easiest schedule in the league, and it's not particularly close. Like if you look at the chart that Warren Sharp puts out, it's like, this is how all the teams have like schedules in terms of SOS. And the 49ers are like up here at having the easiest in the league. So I really like this team to finish in the 11 to 13 win range. they've got a smooth pathway
Starting point is 00:39:42 and it's easy to forget that they have one of the best rosters in the league. So in this scenario, which quarterback starts in Super Bowl? Yeah, it's, it's Tray Lance. Okay, just wanted to make sure on that one. Okay, I just wanted to make sure. Wow. This is, this is quite a take.
Starting point is 00:39:59 I agree with everything you've said in as much as, you know, we did the exercise last week on how many teams win the Super Bowl. We talked with the 49ers a lot there. I think that people have, of strange kind of anti-Jimmy Garoppolo bias. And I really do think that even if he plays,
Starting point is 00:40:18 they can still win games and we're on a big stage. I think that the division is really hard and that complicates things. And I just don't know, you know, in the one-by era, if it's going to be easy to come from a division like that and get the breaks you need in the playoffs. Danny Kelly, you're not an FC West-oficionado. Where are we on the Niners this year? Yeah, I mean, it wouldn't shock me.
Starting point is 00:40:39 they were a Super Bowl team two years ago. So it's not like, I don't think it's a wild take. I do think that, and we talked about this a couple of weeks ago, and we talked about the teams that could make the Super Bowl. I think they need to have some things go right for them. I think, you know, whether it's Jimmy Garapolo taking his game to another level or Trey Lance coming in and playing really well as a rookie, I think those are two things that it would certainly help.
Starting point is 00:41:03 I don't know if they have as good of a defense as they had two years ago. Right. You know, they still have a lot of talent, clearly. Yeah, cornerback could be an issue. Cornerback could be an issue. But at the end of the day, like, honestly, it wouldn't surprise me that much. Like, they have so, such good skill players. And like Evan said, like, it's, it's, they're the best team by far at running after the catch.
Starting point is 00:41:27 And Shanahan puts these guys in perfect situation to catch the ball, have space, and just make defenses pay. I'm really excited to see who they kind of have is like their third receiver, whether it's maybe Jalen Hurd who, you know, he was as a freshman or sophomore or whatever, he rushed for like a thousand yards as a running back. And then he changed over to a to the receiver position as a third rounder. He didn't hurt his first two years in the league. But he's another guy that's interesting.
Starting point is 00:41:53 I mean, I don't know who's going to be the third guy, but they might even need him with Kittles, Debo, and Ayuk there. But yeah, this is just this team has an identity. I think their offense line will be strong. you know, they got Shanahan calling plays, which always makes it really difficult for defense, or for defenses to figure out. And then, of course, if their defense gets back to what they were a couple years ago,
Starting point is 00:42:15 then they will look like a juggerna. I just think there's, I'm not quite as confident as Evan, but I do, there's absolutely, like, in the realm of possibility. It wouldn't surprise me that much. I want to get Nora and Evan's take on how the NFC West shakes out. I ask you first, Evan. If you could rank the four teams in the NFC West, where would you go right now?
Starting point is 00:42:31 No, I mean, clearly, I think the 49ers are the best team. But the Rams, I think, are really, really dangerous. They've got, you know, those two studs on defense. And then they've got a bunch of other really good, like, role players. And they, well, I don't know, you know, losing Brandon Staley, that could be a significant loss. I do think that Stafford, you know, we talked about like- Gaining Stafford. Talk about quarterbacks that can elevate the players around them.
Starting point is 00:42:58 Like, I think that Stafford is going to, we're going to see a big year, I think, out of like Tyler Higbee or, you know, maybe Cooper Cup's best season and, and Robert Woods making more plays downfield instead of just everything around the line of scrimmage. Like, I think he's going to help take their passing game to another level that Jared golf could, could not reach. So I think that they're really dangerous. And then you got Russ in Seattle. And, I mean, I think the defense is looking a lot better.
Starting point is 00:43:23 And the offensive line is looking. I mean, they got Gabe Jackson. I thought that that was one of the better moves of the offseason. They're dangerous. And so is Arizona. So your points about the division are very well made and acknowledged. That's how I'd rank them though right now, San Francisco, Rams, Seattle, Arizona. Love it.
Starting point is 00:43:45 Nora, NFC West and the Niners in general. So NFC West, I think, I think Evans order is right. I will say I really like the Seahawks. You'll hear a little bit more about that in a second. But I just, I don't think, I think it's like they're so consistent that it's easy to overlook them or something. The one thing I just want to reiterate, I think we've talked about this on other shows. Trey Lance was born in the year 2000. I hate it.
Starting point is 00:44:09 We must acknowledge this is, it is inherently untrustworthy. But you are so young that do we even remember 2000? Didn't we already do this? Yes. I do remember the year 2000. Okay. It's borderline. All right.
Starting point is 00:44:24 But that, you know what? I'm not going to win the Super Bowl either. So 2000. I was in my prime. I was just banging in hockey goals. in Orlando. That was my athletic prime. I think it was 12 or something.
Starting point is 00:44:37 All right. You want to give your Seahawks leap? Yeah. So my second leap candidate is Seahawks offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron. And I think that he will make the leap to being a, you know, one of that group of head coaching candidates who's just sort of on all the lists in a lot of the discussions, one of those guys. And I think it's pretty simple. The Seahawks are a good team with a great quarterback. So there's already a great infrastructure for him to thrive.
Starting point is 00:45:07 But he can also get a lot of credit for doing it, right? Pete Carroll is a defensive head coach. And they're looking for for someone who's going to give them a little bit of energy. One word that Pete Carroll has used and some of the players have used as they've gone through. They've started to get into OTAs there is tempo. And that's been something that they've been saying that he's really going to bring to them and they're super excited about. And I think that's really, really, really important.
Starting point is 00:45:33 Because where have we seen the Seahawks offense look the best with Russ in recent years? It's when they're in two-minute situations or other times when they're situationally forced to pass, forced to move the ball quickly, forced to use some tempo. If Shane Waldron can come from the Rams, a team that's really good at using tempo, just regardless of the situation. Now where he has Russell Wilson, two top 25 receivers, I think he can really get the most out of Russ,
Starting point is 00:46:12 cover up some of the offensive line issues that I think have been mitigated, but still do exist, and really just help everything there gel. And I think if that happens, then, you know, you sprinkle in a little bit of used to work for Sean McVeigh, and boom, you got a head coaching.
Starting point is 00:46:29 candidate. That's the recipe. That's the leap. Danny, I'm going to bring you in here for some, to react to some Seahawks optimism. Yeah, yeah. So I think I have to be guarded in my optimism for that and I love this take. Because we really don't know who Shane Waldron is, honestly. Like, I think he was like a passing game coordinator.
Starting point is 00:46:51 He wasn't even the offensive coordinator. And then of course. So he was a tight ends coach and then he was the passing game coordinator. Yeah. And then of course he's playing like McVeigh is the one calling place. So we don't really know who he is. However, if I was going to, I think, like if I was being honest, and I wanted an offense that the Seahawks could run where it makes Pete Carroll happy, they're going to be run heavy. They're going to be, you know, they're going to be physical.
Starting point is 00:47:14 They're going to play smash-mouth football. And yet would get the most out of Russell Wilson. I think it would be the Rams offense. And so I love the idea or the 49ers offense. Either one of those two offenses, I think, is just like perfect for Russell Wilson. I think getting Shane, Waldronin who's going to probably do a lot of three receiver sets, a lot of pre-snap motion, a lot of, like you said, tempo.
Starting point is 00:47:37 I love all that stuff. I also think it's going to be very interesting. My first reaction to the Dwayne Eskridge pick was that I hated it because he's an older prospect who comes from a small school. But the more that I think about it, I'm starting to, like, get really bullish on Eskridge and what he can do for the offense because the Seahawks had like, they basically had no layup plays last year. It was all run, run the ball or toss it deep to Lockett and Metcalf and hope for the best. And then they would have like these, they would try to get like David Moore, Freddie Swain.
Starting point is 00:48:10 These guys, you know, more involved in this short and intermediate area, but they just really didn't have that part of the offense dialed. And that was a big part of the reason I think that their passing game fell apart in the second half of the year. Like Lockett got hurt and that really didn't help. He was playing sort of on a bum knee. But also just like when teams started playing these two high shelves and try and really, really hard to take the deep ball away. They couldn't, they didn't have an answer. That was why Shadi got fired. I think that's why they want Shane Waldron come in here. And that's a big part of what the, like, look at the Rams offense last year was all short and intermediate because like, because Goff couldn't throw the ball
Starting point is 00:48:45 deep. So he's bringing those passing game concepts, screens, quick, you know, quick slants, all that stuff, you know, end arounds, sweeps. I think Eskridge is going to be really crucial for that part of the Seahawks passing game because he's, you know, he's got four three speed. He's big. He's, he's not big. Sorry, he's short, but he's not small. He's like 190 pounds. He's kind of like a running back. And he played corner in college. Um, so he's got like, they liked that because he's like, the tough guy that can, that can play defense and still hold his own. Um, I still think there's a ton of question marks about Eskridge. He's like 24. And he, he's coming from that small school where he like broke out late and all that stuff. That certainly concerns me. However, his skill set, I think will, we'll,
Starting point is 00:49:26 will fill in really nicely for what they need on offense. And so I think that's why they're really high on him. I think that's going to be a big part of their offense this year. And I'm kind of with you, though, like people are looking past the Seahawks because they're sort of just like the same every year. But I think if Waldron can sort of unlock that part of the Seahawks offense, I think they could really take a leap. And so I like this, I like this take.
Starting point is 00:49:49 Again, I'm guarded in my natural Seahawks pessimism. but I am excited to see how this goes. Evan, as someone who deals with just the projection of units and stuff like that, are you generally high on the Seahawks in 2021? Their offense? Yeah, yeah. I mean, they're going to be good because Russ is so efficient. And that just trickles down to the dudes he's throwing the ball to.
Starting point is 00:50:18 and I liked Nora's point about, you know, about tempo because she's right. I think that, you know, when you think about quarterbacks that excel when in urgent situations and are able to play with urgency and play efficiently and play fast, Russell Wilson is like, you know, right up there with anybody. Gerald Everett, I think, was an interesting addition. I think if you were going to rank five assistants across the league, to who was going to be the you know this year's Arthur Smith I think Shane Waldron should be in that conversation and so yeah I'm I'm with it oh by the way but before Russ retires like this dude needs
Starting point is 00:51:02 to win an MVP award like yeah I do not want this dude to retire without an MVP award he's been so close like multiple years he I mean he pretty much had it in the bag like through week 11 or week 12 last season and did not play well down the stretch yeah but um man I want to see this guy get an MVP award so bad. Russ winning MVP is like like Beyonce needs to win an album of the year. I didn't know that that was a that was a streak of thing. Yeah. I don't I don't know. I don't know this is the audience for that particular take, Nora. But no, I just I don't. Danny, did you know Beyonce never won album of the year? I did not. No. Like the most awarded woman at the Grammys but hasn't won an album year. Is that? We're okay. Well, the thing is about Russell. is number one is he needs to get an MVP vote. And Chris Collinsworth is going to do it, and they lost his vote. I want to get an MVP.
Starting point is 00:51:56 Nora, this should be your mission is to get, now that you've done the podcasts about Taylor and Olivia, Olivia Rodrigo, you should get a Grammy vote and just vote for Beyonce every chance you get because I'm going to get an MVP vote at some point. And just no matter what, Russell could have played in three games. I'm going to give an MVP vote as soon as I get. It's the first thing I'm going to do is I'm going to get an MVP vote. I don't know how.
Starting point is 00:52:19 I'm going to call the MVP commission, and then I'm going to vote for Russell Wilson. And you can do the same for the Grammys. Maybe Russell Wilson could win a Grammy. His wife is in the music industry. That could happen. That could happen. Danny Kelly, next leap.
Starting point is 00:52:33 All right. And this goes right back to what we were talking about with the Rams. I'll make this quick since we kind of already addressed them. But I think Cam Acres is a guy who's going to make a big jump. Starting off with, I think, the fact that Stafford has the ability to unlock this offense. you know, they, like I said before, they were all sort of, everything was within 10 yards their passing game last year. And it really kind of, it helped defense as key in, helped them stack the box, play the run. I actually looked this up. Acres saw eight plus man boxes on defense on 30 or 7% of his runs last year, which is the fourth most in the NFL.
Starting point is 00:53:08 Darrell Henderson wasn't far behind. He had 30%. So I could see that number dropping significantly as Stafford is more able to stretch the field, stretch defenses. out. I think even McVeigh was talking about that when they brought Stafford in. It was like activate more guys in this offense rather than just like have everything be sort of limited in the short intermediate area. And so I think the other thing is like we saw him get a lot of volume down the stretch. He battled some some high ankle sprain stuff that kind of like limited him for a part of the last year. But I think at his heart, McVeigh, he wants to be a balanced team. He wants to run the ball. And he also wants, I think, to have a guy. who is like his guy.
Starting point is 00:53:49 And we saw that with Gurley for years. And I could see Acres get the volume he needs to be like to turn into a star in the league. So there this is a little bit boom or busty because, you know, he had, you know, he was invisible for stretches during last year. He got hurt early on in season. He like injured his ribs. And that affected his ability to get and stay on the field. So we'll see. And if he can stay healthy.
Starting point is 00:54:13 But I think Acres has the ability and has this opportunity where he's going to be the guy. and he's going to be more involved in the passing game. I just think overall, Stafford is going to help unlock this offense, and that's going to translate to the run game, too. Nora, we're doing a lot of NFC West talk here, and I kind of like that everybody, everybody's taking their claim here. Nora, respond to that take. I'm with it.
Starting point is 00:54:36 Shoot it down. What am I supposed to do? What if we just turn this into like a first take-style debate show? It was three hours long, And it was just everybody had to take opposite sides of everything. And you just had to just murder Danny's take. I know. That's why you're like,
Starting point is 00:54:54 respond. And I'm like, I don't know. I think Danny made some really difficult. I think it's because there's two people in this call currently having technical difficulty. So I'm just trying to keep it as curt as short as possible. So they don't.
Starting point is 00:55:04 While we fix our technical issues. Do you want to talk about Beyonce some more? I'd be happy. If you could did 10 minutes on Beyonce right now, you would really help Evan Silva and I out. But no, it's good. All right, Evan, Cam Acres.
Starting point is 00:55:16 Yeah, I mean, you know, doing fantasy stuff, having done fantasy stuff for 15 years at this point, like, it's real simple. If a dude has a chance to get like 400 touches, then you don't overthink it. You don't worry about his yards for carry. You don't worry about, you know, any of these other, you know, other metrics. If a dude has a chance to get like 300 carries and 50 catches, which it looks like Hamakers does this year. Yep. You don't overthink it.
Starting point is 00:55:44 You put that guy in your fantasy team. you make bets on them. You know, that's, he's in, I mean, and they're talking about, like, leaving him on the feet, like in the old tie girly role. So, and he showed at the end of the year. I mean, he actually, he had a high ankle sprain last year. I think he had multiple high ankle sprains. And he was still balling at the end of the year.
Starting point is 00:56:04 I mean, he's a tough dude. He can play in the passing game. You can run between the tackles. This is going to be a good offense. That's all you need to know. Yes. Thumbs up, Camakers. All right.
Starting point is 00:56:15 My next one. it's the sequel to Evans last year. I think the team that's going to win the NFC East and the team that's going to have a bounce back season. And I think a coach who unfairly is going to be in the coach of the year discussion because of just the way things work. It's the Dallas Cowboys
Starting point is 00:56:35 and it's everything that goes on with them. Mike McCarthy is going to get credit for something he didn't do, which is he just happens to be the coach of a team with a lot more roster talent than other teams in the division. Dak Pressout is going to be healthy. Dan Quinn is a massive
Starting point is 00:56:53 upgrade from Mike Nolan. Let me tell you something. I don't think Dan Quinn's all that good events coordinator, but the fact that he's a massive upgrade says more about Mike Nolan than it does Dan Quinn. I think that this is not a Super Bowl contender by any means, but
Starting point is 00:57:09 I just think that Washington football team is a very good team, very deep team. I love Ron Rivera and I actually love the building blocks there. That front seven is nasty. They built that team the right way. And the football team will be very good going forward. The whole at quarterback is I think the difference here. And so I'm going Cowboys to go from bad team to NFC East champion. Evan. What do you like about the Cowboys in 2021 and what concerns you? I mean, they should be able to score a boatload of points.
Starting point is 00:57:45 I think anything finishing any lower than top five in the NFL and scoring would be a disappointment. But what was, how is Dak? I mean, that injury was so brutal. I can still picture it now sitting in my basement watching that thing with, you know, Dak Prescott on like half my fantasy teams and, you know, Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup sprinkled, you know, in amongst them as well. It was, I could like feel Dak's pain almost as it was happening. It was a brutal injury.
Starting point is 00:58:15 How is he going to recover from that? You know, is it going to take him some time to get comfortable, you know, within the first few weeks? Can Tyron Smith hold up at left tackle? Probably not, right? I mean, when was the last time that he held up at left tackle? And then really the biggest addition, although I think, didn't they use every draft pick that they had on defense, I think? Yeah, I believe they do. We're close to it.
Starting point is 00:58:40 A couple fourth rounders on offense, but yeah. Yeah. They had a fit, they took, uh, four and fifth round. Yeah, they took some, they took some fourth and fifth and seventh. But,
Starting point is 00:58:50 but high picks. Yeah. First, second, third was defense. Yeah. But, you know,
Starting point is 00:58:54 other than a bunch of rookies, I mean, the only real big change they made defensively was just changing out the defensive coordinator. Right. I mean, they didn't go get any great free agent pickups, uh,
Starting point is 00:59:06 on defense. And they're kind of just hoping, I guess that the scheme changed. Now, Mike Nolan, I think, and we can say pretty confidently was a bad, higher. It just seemed like a cronyism higher because that's, you know, Mike McCarthy's boy
Starting point is 00:59:19 from back in San Francisco or whatever. And that, that, we can say confidently that was a bad higher. Is Dan Quinn going to come in with his scheme and, you know, change everything for the positive? I think that they'll be better on defense because they couldn't be a whole lot. It couldn't really be worse. Yeah. But, man, I still worry. So I think that there are legitimate concerns there. but they better finish top five in the NFL and scoring with this receiver core and with the offensive linemen coming back and Dak coming back they better.
Starting point is 00:59:50 Isn't it funny that the cronyism hires always like can't we find better roles for the cronies? Like do you really need to be defensive coordinator if you're just trying to hook up your boy? You know, I'd like give him a, make them like linebackers coach and just make them a vibes guy. You know, I just, I feel like,
Starting point is 01:00:06 I feel like if I was in charge of something, I would want to hire, are my friends, but if I knew they were bad, I would not give them any responsibility. It's not that hard, guys. But NFL coaches fail at this time and time again. Anyway, that's my, that's my cronyism, right? Assistant to the head coach. Exactly, exactly.
Starting point is 01:00:28 Why couldn't he be assistant to the head coach? Mike Nolan. Bring them back. Special consultant. Bring them back. Special, absolutely. We love a special assistant. Senior assistant.
Starting point is 01:00:38 What does it mean? Nobody knows. No, offball linebackers coach. Amazing. We just solve the cronyism problem in the NFL. Nora, are the Cowboys going to be good this year? I like the Cowboys. Dax's amazing.
Starting point is 01:00:53 You know, the injury is scary, but Dax's amazing. And I like that they went defense. I like that they had a boring draft, you know? I don't think Jerry likes it, but I like that they had a boring draft. And then I think there's sort of dueling forces with that offensive line, right? which is that like it's not what it used to be and a lot of those guys are getting up there in age and they're going to be better.
Starting point is 01:01:14 They're going to be better. They're going to be healthier. PFF has them as six going into next year. Yes. Since they, and they finished 27th last season. So, whoopsies,
Starting point is 01:01:26 six being much better than 27. I think you can expect some solid improvement there. And they're deeper too. So they can take a couple injuries and maybe not totally fall apart the same way. Danny, you're the draft expert. Tell me about Micah Parsons and his immediate impact.
Starting point is 01:01:41 Well, I think number one, he brings speed and athleticism to the defense of the middle of the field. He can be a, he can play off the ball. He can play as like a situational pass rusher. So he's definitely interesting, but he's a rookie. And, you know, we've seen linebacker, highly drafted linebackers take a little bit of time to kind of acclimate to the NFL. And he doesn't have a lot, he didn't have a lot of experience doing like straight up man coverage, things like that. Like, it could take a minute. there's a little bit of a ramp up period.
Starting point is 01:02:10 I do think he's explosive athlete who's going to make their defense faster and ultimately better. But I wouldn't expect, you know, I'm not necessarily expecting huge things from him in year one. But like I do think he's multiple and gives them options in, you know, the nickel situations where he can be a blitzer slash pass rusher. All that stuff is good. All right. We will start with Norprinciotti for the third league.
Starting point is 01:02:37 Go ahead. Defense. Defense is going to. to make the leap. Defense is back. Okay. Okay. All right.
Starting point is 01:02:45 Let's run through this. Number one reason defense is back. Fans are back. We saw a lot of situations last season where the lack of fans in stadiums was helping quarterbacks. They were getting defenders to jump using hard counts. They had an easier time communicating. That is gone.
Starting point is 01:02:59 The diminished home field advantage last season got to the point where road teams were scoring basically as much as home teams. So I think that, you know, I don't think that matters quite as much as something like the fact that refs just weren't calling holding, but I do think that it matters a tick. Also, this is just mass. 2020, like all kinds of offensive records were broken. So points scored, yards gained, touchdowns.
Starting point is 01:03:23 There were five teams that averaged 30 points per game. I'm not saying that there's going to be like a total regression here just because I think offense improving is a long-term trend in the modern NFL. And ultimately, like, I think that arrow is. was still pointing up. But relative to last season where it was just going so crazy with the scoring, I do think that there will be a tick in the other direction. And then there's a few significant, you know, player pieces here, right?
Starting point is 01:03:53 So not that Drew Brees was lighting the world on fire as a quarterback last season, but he retired. I don't know that the Saints offense will be quite quite what it was last season. Aaron Rogers, who threw more touchdowns last season than his team had to punt, might not play this year. Tom Brady, and I know I'll regret saying this, is a year older. Ben Rathlisberger was really bad at the end of the season, but was better towards the beginning.
Starting point is 01:04:19 And I think a lot of us, myself included, are wondering if that'll be kind of more the norm for all of next season. Put it all together. And I think the deck is so stacked against defense in general that the way that you would have to call this a leap is basically just not having another slew of records of offense being broken again. but that is the leap that I am predicting for defense, which is back. You heard it here first.
Starting point is 01:04:46 Evan, as someone who studies this very close, are you expecting a defensive progression and offensive regression this year? Just big picture. I mean, I just am sitting here hoping that Nora is wrong because defense sucks. See, this is how we get the first take debate here. Yeah. No, she laid out a very interesting case, though. It did not, I mean, a lot of, you know, a lot of good reasoning there.
Starting point is 01:05:09 I just hope she's wrong. Evan, this sounds like such backhanded praise. No, I'm dead serious. Like, I just, that would really suck, you know. Here's what I want to know, though. And I think this was a big part of it, too, is what is the NFL going to do about the refereeing situation? Because last year, they basically were just like, we're not going to call holding. And that was a big part of, I think, a huge part.
Starting point is 01:05:39 of the offensive explosion. I was just looking at the stats right now. The NFL teams scored more receiving touchdowns than any other year last year, but they also scored more rushing touchdowns than any other season. So this was like an absurd offensive, like obviously most points ever,
Starting point is 01:05:57 but it was both in the passing game and the running game. I think a lot of that had to do with the fact that officials were basically like, we don't like, we just want the football to be good. We're not going to call holding. and Evan and I, I think, especially in this call, are like, hell yeah, let's keep that going. Like, we don't want holding. Like, it's more fun to watch team score points.
Starting point is 01:06:18 I hate holding calls. It's, like, so annoying when you get a holding call and, like, it brings a playback, a big playback. Yeah, dude, like bust like a 70-yard run and it's like holding. Oh, it's the worst. So that's speaking, obviously, from a fantasy football point of view. And, you know, we're going to have football purists probably groaning and being pissed off about that. But that, I think, is what the NFL wants, too. So I'm also, I'm just kind of wondering if the NFL is just going to be like, yeah, let's just keep not.
Starting point is 01:06:44 Let's just continue to not call holding. I don't see any reason why they would want to change that, right? Like, the NFL, I'm sure, was thrilled with what happened as a result of the points, points, points. Very low number of holding calls. Like, I think that that is the future. However, these things do have like a little bit of, you know, two steps forward, one step back sometimes just because. Yeah. once everybody knows it's a thing,
Starting point is 01:07:09 you just have coaches making a point to scream and yell about it. Right? So, like, I do think that there are going to be, like, the defensive coordinators are going to be mad, and they're going to be mad for a little bit,
Starting point is 01:07:20 and then just be like, okay, we're, yeah, it is what it is. Yeah. Defensive coordinators are going to be mad for a long time because they're constantly mad. If you want, if you want, if you want, I've, I've gone to this well, probably one too many times.
Starting point is 01:07:35 It's just, go up to a defensive coordinator at any point in my training camp during the season just be like, what do you think about modern football? And let us be like, oh my God, I hate it. And it's like, great. I'm just going to print this and it's going to be great. It doesn't matter.
Starting point is 01:07:47 It doesn't matter who the coordinator is. They're just mad. They're just mad at all times. Great reasoning, Nora. Evan is just fuming right now thinking about the defense being back. You might leave the call. I like your theory about the defensive coaches. I was being mad.
Starting point is 01:08:02 Like I met Steve Belichick at the Combine, couple years ago. Love it. And I was like, yo, man, what do you think is going to happen with Tom Brady?
Starting point is 01:08:11 He was like, I don't know, man, you tell me. And that was like the end of the conversation. That was it. I was like, I was like,
Starting point is 01:08:19 I can totally picture that. Sounds like a pretty good interaction, actually. All right. Actually, it was probably more words than I get out to most of its coordinators.
Starting point is 01:08:33 Honestly, I'm just shocked that Steve Belichick went out in public at the combine. Usually they're not encouraged. I'm a Steve Belichick stand in the same way that... What does that entail?
Starting point is 01:08:45 I think you should win a Grammy. Danny Kelly, your next leap. All right, so this one's, I think, more, maybe it has a higher probability of failing in terms of of it might not happen. But I'm looking for a second year jump from Bill's receiver, Gabriel Davis, who
Starting point is 01:09:03 last year quietly had seven touchdowns. which was second only to chase Claypool among rookies and tied with Justin Jefferson. Obviously, he didn't get nearly the amount of yards or catches. But he was a very effective deep receiver for them. He actually was seventh highest in the NFL in yards per reception, with 17.1. I saw this per CBS. 31% of his routes as a rookie were go routes.
Starting point is 01:09:27 So I wonder if he's on sort of like the DK Metcalf progression as a route runner for the bills where basically they're like, hey, as a rookie, go line up here. and just run deep and give us that option. And then next year, with John Brown gone, maybe they're going to expand his route tree, get him more involved. I think they're excited about his potential. And this is a super pass-heavy offense.
Starting point is 01:09:48 They ran three plus receiver sets like 90% of time last year. I do think them signing Emmanuel Sanders throws a wrench in this potentially, where he maybe can't, maybe Gabriel Davis doesn't beat out Sanders and play above him. just from a team building point of view, I feel like the team probably is motivated
Starting point is 01:10:10 be like, hey, if Davis is playing better and if he's giving them what they want, like it would make sense to have this guy who they have under contract for several more years, getting that playing time, getting those targets, getting on the same page of Josh Allen. So we'll see.
Starting point is 01:10:22 It could blow up in my face, but I'm kind of excited about what he can do in the second year in this past offense. Evan, Bill's receiving situation, what does it look like? Yeah, I mean, you know, digs is going to get, you know, all the volume in the world.
Starting point is 01:10:35 and Beasley is not going anywhere. So I think where Gabriel Davis could step up with his size is like in the red zone and be a guy that could score like eight touchdowns, you know, and then all of a sudden he's like a factor in fantasy and he's a guy that people are talking about. And I mean, because, you know, there's a limitation on how many targets he's going to get. I mean, unless, you know, Stefan Diggs were to go down, which, I mean, he, remember, he used to battle soft tissue issues a lot in Minnesota. So if he were to miss time, then I think, hey, all bets are off on Gabriel,
Starting point is 01:11:05 Gabriel Davis, but I think where his biggest impact right now with everybody healthy would be in the red zone. I mean, you look at Diggs is like kind of a small guy. Cole Beasley is not big. You know, Gabriel Davis is what, 6-4. So 6-3, 6-4 and like, you know, thickly built, I think that he could be a red zone dominator. And their fourth receiver, Emmanuel Sanders, another small guy. Yeah, he's 2-16. So, I mean, he's like, he's the only guy on this offense, really, that profiles with that size. or at least that that's going to get playing time. So, yeah, absolutely. You did a lot of reporting last year on Josh Allen,
Starting point is 01:11:38 talked to Josh, talked to Brian Babel, a bunch of people around there. When you think about, obviously there was a huge leap from year two to year three for Josh Allen, one predicted by Evan Silva.
Starting point is 01:11:49 We're just going to keep bringing up your old take seven, but that one was right. What are you expecting out of Josh Nora in, in 2021? He was so good last season that he could, there's some natural regression that I think would be really logical to predict. But I don't think that using his other, his earlier seasons as kind of like, okay, the sample is we have each one of those.
Starting point is 01:12:18 And then if you're, you know, taking a mean from all of that, that's what he would regress back to. I don't think that's right. I think he is so fundamentally better than he was in his first year when they didn't want to. to play. Like, that was just not their plan. And some things happened because they had, you know, whatever it was, like $60 million in dead money and didn't have a lot of options in terms of getting a good bridge quarterback there, that he had to be thrown into the fire in ways that I think just sort of altered what we saw of him at a point when they would have preferred that he just be
Starting point is 01:12:55 making those mistakes in practice, I think. So there could be some natural regression, just bad luck. just not quite, you know, the explosiveness that we saw last season. But I think that he is a fundamentally different player. Like I don't think that we're going back to the Josh Allen of old who, you know, struggled with deep passing so much and was just making those ridiculous overthrows where it was like, what's what is going on here? Like I don't think that guy.
Starting point is 01:13:18 I don't think that guy is, is Josh Allen anymore. Evan Silva, your last leap. All right. Going back to the NFC East, Antonio Gibson leads the NFL in yards from. scrimmage. Oh, wow. So I think if you look at Antonio Gibson's college resume and what he did as a rookie in the NFL and you're trying to forecast him, you should be pretty aggressive. I'm in the process right now of building our draft guide and I keep trying to move him up the rankings, you know, because he is a true all-purpose talent. He runs 4-3-9 or 228 pounds. He left Memphis
Starting point is 01:13:55 with more career catches than rushing attempts. He had more catches in college than he had carries. But then he gets to the NFL in his first year with Washington, I mean, the team basically pigeonholes him as an early, as an early down rusher. They use J.D. McKissick as they're passing down back. Peyton Barber stealing goal line carries. You know, they're, they're easing Antonio Gibson in because I think they considered him to be a raw and developmental player because he had, what, 80 offensive touches in his entire college career. But he passed every test. He showed he's an explosive playmaker. the trust in him progressed as the year progressed.
Starting point is 01:14:34 And then if you leave out week 13 where he suffered a toe injury and it cost them the next two weeks, Antonio Gibson wound up handling 16 or more touches in five of Washington's final six games. So to me, I think it's pretty clear that they gain late season trust in him. And that now if you look at the construct of this Washington team, like I think they're going to be pretty good. They have an elite, they have elite talent on defense. they have a ton of speed on offense. I mean, Curtis Samuel, Terry McCorrin, Antonio Gibson, all these guys are sub-4-4 guys. And so now I think that he's got a chance to be like a true every down back.
Starting point is 01:15:13 And I mean, you know, when when you think about like the true every down backs, the true multi-purpose backs in the NFL, I think that at the end of this year, he's going to be in the same conversation as guys like Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones. I think he's going to end up as a true every downback on a good team that is in a lot of positive game script, and they'll be able to feed him. He's got, he's got an immense upside. Danny Kelly, you're nodding in agreement, Antonio Gibson, 2021. Yeah, this was, I mentioned at the beginning, I had four guys. This was my fourth guy. So I absolutely agree with this.
Starting point is 01:15:50 The only thing that's making me just slightly worried is his foot injury, his toe injury, which has been nagging since last year. So that would be the only thing that worries me. Maybe that becomes something, you know, that holds him out of games or limits him. I hope not. And if it doesn't, then, yeah, absolutely like wheels up. This guy is going to, you know, he's playing for a coach in Ron Rivera who had, you know, Christian McCaffrey saw what that guy like him could do both on the ground and the passing game. So I think he's going to, you know, eventually earn the right to be the past catching back for them too.
Starting point is 01:16:24 So I think, you know, this is like one of the few players in the NFL now. that could have true three down potential. So I love this. I think it's going to be great. And the thing that we can't forget is, like, what an elite athlete this guy is. Like, he's a rare athlete. So I think all those points are great.
Starting point is 01:16:41 And I think their offensive line is solid, too. I don't remember if you mentioned that. But, like, they just have kind of like all the pieces there for him to really break out. Here's what I want to ask Evan and Danny, since Antonio Gibson was going to be on his list, too. Can chime in here too. So Derek Henry led the NFL in yards from scrimand. last season with 21141 yards.
Starting point is 01:17:01 Dalvin Cook was next with 1,918. So let's say to meet this, it's just an even 2,000 yards from scrimmage. How does that break out as a rusher and as a receiver? Yeah, I think you're looking at, you're trying to look at like 1,200 yards rushing and 800 receiving with like 60, 65 catches. I mean, he's going to have to get a lot of touches to get there.
Starting point is 01:17:25 No question. He's got to stay healthy. he's got to overcome this toe issue. But I mean, based on us, see, this is what I like, that he really excelled as an early down rusher in his first season in the NFL, yet his background is in past catching, really. I mean, if you remember him coming out of Memphis,
Starting point is 01:17:43 people were like, this guy's going to be a slot receiver in the NFL. I mean, a lot of people were saying that. But then he's used as just like a true old-fashioned ball carrier in his first year. He's still got that pass-catching, you know, equity. and, you know, if he's able to, if everything can kind of come together, then we can hit this prediction. But, yeah, it's going to take a lot.
Starting point is 01:18:04 Danny? Yeah, I mean, it is one of those situations, I think, where you have to have, like, everything go right. And in the fact, I was just looking at it. I don't think there's any running backs last year that hit 800 yards receiving. Alvin Camara had 756. So this is definitely like an ambitious goal for him or whatever prediction. but I mean, I still love it.
Starting point is 01:18:27 I think it's great. I think also the defense is probably going to give them plenty of good field position, like situations where, you know, they're not going to have to be digging themselves out of a lot of holes. They're going to have situations where they get, like, at the 50-yard line or whatever, because that defense is so good. When you guys were talking about the cowboys earlier,
Starting point is 01:18:44 I wanted to be like, what about the, what about Washington, you know, because I think their defense is so good. And if the offense takes a jump, like I think it could with Fitzpatrick, that quarterback, This might be the team that we're really talking about in this division. So I wonder if a better bet might be actually his touchdowns because this dude for a guy who was getting vultured at the goal line by Payton Barbara last year, he scored a lot of touchdowns. If you look at his cut, he scored, he touched the ball on offense literally 77 times at Memphis. He scored 15 touchdowns.
Starting point is 01:19:13 Yeah, yeah, exactly. This guy is like a touchdown waiting to happen. So maybe the maybe the better bet is to lead the NFL in all-purpose touchdowns, which I like that. I mean, I don't think that would be crazy. Yeah. I'm cleaning up all the loose end before I give my last leap because I want to, I'm like a criminal packing their bags and just getting out as soon as the last job is done. Once I give it, you'll understand why. One more question for you because we had some Titans fans ask.
Starting point is 01:19:36 On your list of teams who win the Super Bowl, are the Titans now on it? I would put them on that list. Yeah. I think Evan basically put it really well earlier, I think, where they really needed to get Julio, I think. And I think this is a big move for them. It's a very good move for them. they certainly wouldn't still be a favorite for me, but I think it definitely puts them on the list.
Starting point is 01:19:56 And so sorry Titans fans. But that was kind of like the exact issue that I had with them is like, you know, like if AJ Brown goes down, if Derek Kenner goes down, like they're just so so shallow in their defense, you know, has to make this massive leap to kind of get to average, I think. And so, yeah, I do think that this can be a very efficient offense now. And the one thing I think I like the most about this is, like they're going to be a play action heavy offense.
Starting point is 01:20:23 I think that's been where Ryan Tannhill really, really thrives. But you can't always use play action. Like you can't, like at a third and ten, you're not going to use play action. So I think where Julio really comes into play is he gives them another elite route runner and a guy who can move the chains in those situations. He could be a go-to guy where play action is just not going to work. So I think that to me is like what I'm excited about for that acquisition. I think it's really big for them.
Starting point is 01:20:49 So we have all the housekeeping. I'm like Robert Teno and Heat. I'm just getting all the takes out of the way so that I can get out in 30 seconds. The team that will take a leap from seven wins to 11 wins is the new improved New England Patriots. Could smell that coming a mile away. Everything points to this team taking a step forward. They have a contingency plan at quarterback now. They had some, you know, I think that the kind of.
Starting point is 01:21:24 of Rosetta Stone for last season was, was it Matt Light? One of those guys, one of the ex-linmen was on the radio and said that he thinks that Bill Belichick, as an educated guest. He thought Bill Belichick treated last season as a joke, right? But the biggest competitive advantage for the Patriots in most
Starting point is 01:21:40 areas outside of the quarterback, being the best quarterback of all time for 20 years, was having Bill Belichick in situational football and knowing every corner of the game and being able to install that on a Wednesday. That didn't happen last during COVID, there wasn't a full training camp, there wasn't OTAs, all that stuff.
Starting point is 01:21:57 So now you have what amounts to a more normal season. It won't be fully normal, but it will be more normal. They get some of the opt-in guys back from a defense that was historically good for long stretch to 2019. If they go out and they build a really interesting roster, I mean, like, Bill Belichick, and this is something we've talked about a lot, Bill Belichick clearly hated last season's Patriots. And he wanted to get that, that taste out of his mouth as quickly as possible.
Starting point is 01:22:28 And he was ready to spend on it. Now, I don't agree with the Robert Kraft rationale that he came out with a couple days later after they'd went on the spending boom and said, you know what? It's an inefficiency because nobody had money to spend. We did. So we're going to go out and get those guys. But I do think it is almost in arguable that they upgraded their skill guys. Hunter Henry is really good.
Starting point is 01:22:48 Johnny Smith is really good. The skill guys that they have, the two tight end sets are going to be great. but then you also have, you know, I don't think the world of Nelson Aguilor is especially at that price. I don't think the world of Kendrick Bourne. But that's an upgrade. Like, if you overspent to upgrade,
Starting point is 01:23:07 that's a different discussion than did you upgrade? Okay. It's a team building discussion versus a roster discussion. And so I think you add all this in together. I think the New England Patriots are going to compete for the playoffs. and I actually think, I actually think that they get the seventh playoff spot in the AFC.
Starting point is 01:23:28 Danny help me out. Or don't help me out. Or kill them, bury me. Do whatever you want to do. In this vision of yours, who is the, how many starts does Mac Jones get? Or is it all Cam?
Starting point is 01:23:40 Nine. Okay. And I don't think they're, I don't think those are consecutive. They might play around a little bit. Oh, that would be interesting. I think they might play around a little bit. And I also would say, given Cam's health,
Starting point is 01:23:51 that there's going to be times, Mac Jones has to play when it's not a, hey, we're going with Mac because you give us the best chance to win thing. I, and we saw this last year where Cam, at least looked banged up in games last year, but nobody wanted to put Jared Stidiman for long stretches. We saw that last year. Now there's a contingency plan if that does not work. So I can see it happening. And what I like about the Patriots is they are doing their typical thing where they kind of zig whenever else is zagging.
Starting point is 01:24:15 Like they're going to be a super run heavy team, I think. And try and beat up on smaller, more athletic defenses that are meant that are built. built to combat, you know, three and four receiver sets. So that's kind of like, I think, where they could get their edge. And it's not like they're the only team doing that, but they have the personnel, I think, especially with, you know, the two tight ends they sign in the offseason, their offensive line is really solid. They have a good defense. So they're set up pretty well, I think, to execute that strategy. If that's, if that does turn out to be what they want to do, I think I think that's kind of what we envision them turning into. And I think
Starting point is 01:24:48 Mac Jones is a good option for that offense. And the fact that he's going to distribute the ball efficiently, he's accurate, all that stuff. So I can see it. You know, I'm not like necessarily confident in the Patriots this year that, you know, that they're going to be this team that comes out of like, comes back and it's like a really a big threat,
Starting point is 01:25:08 I guess, in the FC. But I could see this happening. It's not like, it's certainly not a wild take in my mind. Yeah. And I've been down on the Patriots for stretches of this off season, and kind of for the reasons that I'm talking about now with,
Starting point is 01:25:20 okay, they overpaid for some of these guys and maybe they doesn't give them home. But the more I think, but the more I study it, the more I think they can get that last playoff spot. Evan Silva, expectations of the Patriots this year. Yeah,
Starting point is 01:25:30 they're a really tough team for me to try to predict. I just, I don't know what to think. Offensively, and I think that Danny did a good enough job breaking down how they're looking defensively. They're trying to build like a power ball team. Yep.
Starting point is 01:25:45 that wins, you know, up front and in the trenches. Their offensive line looks like it could be badass. Yeah. They, but, you know, they've got, like, an impending quarterback controversy. They have, I mean, I love Hunter Henry and Johnny Smith, but when you're playing a lot of two tight-end sets and you don't have a deep threat, which I don't think Nelson Aguilar is a true deep threat. Like, I think they should have, like, try to, like, go get, like, John Brown
Starting point is 01:26:11 to add, you know, another dimension to their offense because, Kendrick Bourne, I mean, he runs like 4-8, and Agilor is really more of like a short-to-intermediate guy, I think, you know. Same with Myers, yeah. They have no, like, field-stretching ability at all on offense, and their offense, like, is at risk, I think, of being condensed. And so I know that Bill Belichick probably, you know, and he knows more football than all ever, you know, he's forgotten more football than I know. you know, but he, like, I don't know, I think he wants to win like an old school way, you know, with like a classic dropback passer in Mack Jones. And it's just, it's going to be interesting to see if this turning back the clock sort of approach is actually going to work.
Starting point is 01:27:03 Nora, the New England Patriots. Yes or no? So the, yeah, let's go with yeah. Yeah, yeah. I disagree. I disagree that Belichick thought that. last season was a joke. I think that he thought it was difficult, but I don't think that he takes anything not seriously. I think that there was probably degrees to it. I think he maybe started out
Starting point is 01:27:25 thinking it wasn't a joke. And then when things started to go south and he realized it was really hard to fix things doing in the wrong direction, he was just probably just like, yeah, this sucks. Like Floyd Mayweather last night when he figured out he couldn't knock out Logan Paul, he was just kind of, he just started laughing in the ring. I just, I disagree with the binary there. He might have thought it sucked, but I don't think that there was an impulse to just, okay, we're not going to try to get the most of it. Oh, no, I don't think they were tanking or anything. I just think that there was, there was just a degree of difficulty when you're trying out a new quarterback and all that stuff that he probably rolled his eyes at. That's my guess.
Starting point is 01:28:01 Again, this is all armchair psychology. This is not, this is not legally binding here. I think we probably, I think we just disagree. I think we do. I don't think they had any business winning seven games with that roster, particularly. with that receiving core. And I also think that the reason that Cam is back has to do with the feeling that, yes, there were severe limitations last season, but also that there was, you know, valuable
Starting point is 01:28:23 work done during that time. That said, Cam Newton heard his hand the other day at OTAs, which at least, you know, it's not necessarily significant at all in terms of what's happening in September, October, and beyond. But what it does seem like is that our friend McCorkle, is getting a lot of work with the starting offensive line. So I do think just looking at what they've been doing and things like bringing in Brian Hoyer,
Starting point is 01:28:56 essentially in my view, in my sort of educated guess, there to be an extra quarterbacks coach on the field who knows the system really well. I just think that they're gearing up for Mac Jones to at least have everything in place, so that he can play a lot of games if that's how it shakes out. What's up with this McCorkel thing?
Starting point is 01:29:17 Is that really his nickname? Yeah, it's McCorkel. It's his middle name. Oh, it's his middle name. Oh, okay. That's what MacKorkel is short for McCorkel. Michael McCorkel Jones. Wow.
Starting point is 01:29:32 I love that. He's hearing this for the first time. That's genuine reaction. I hate some North Florida. Ace of North Florida, and I spent about six months in North Florida. during the pandemic. And there's some there's some corkals around there.
Starting point is 01:29:47 There's some corkals. There's a, they, they get creative with some names down there. He's from Jacksonville, right? Or thereabouts. He is, yeah.
Starting point is 01:29:54 He is, yeah. All right, guys, this was fun. These are all binding. These are all going to happen. I'm happy that they happen. I'm already nervous for next year when we talk about my takes, but yes.
Starting point is 01:30:08 Evan Silva, established the run, is the website. It is some of the best info anywhere you should subscribe. Danny Kelly, the Ringer Fantasy Football Show, is back. Is it next week or this week? Next week. Okay.
Starting point is 01:30:22 I can't wait. It's like Christmas. It comes earlier every year. Yo, next year we got to do a taking a step back show. Like, just tanking show. Because this is a very, like, positive and optimistic show. Like, we need some negativity in here. Just destroy people.
Starting point is 01:30:41 Right. Oh, wow. I wonder who'd be number one on that, on that one this year. I'm trying to think. All right. Well, that's another episode. Nora and I will be back on Monday. Flying coach, season two with Sean McVehan,
Starting point is 01:30:54 Peter Schroger, airing Wednesday here on the NFL feed and at its own feed. I don't know who the guest is for this week, but I'm sure it's amazing. The funny thing last week was when I said it was going to be Cliff Kingsbury. And then, like, three hours later, Peter Schroger was like, anyone want to guess who the guest is? And I was like, oh, I wish I had. Just said it on the podcast.
Starting point is 01:31:13 Anyway, thank you to production assistant, Isaiah Blakely, with additional production by Arjuna. Ram Gapal, this has been the Ring Run NFL show on the Ringer podcast network.

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