The Ringer NFL Show - Who’s Under the Most Pressure Going Into the '24-25 Season?

Episode Date: May 21, 2024

Nora, Sheil, and Lindsay come together to discuss who’s under the most pressure this upcoming season. They talk about Aaron Rodgers, Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott, and many more. Hosts: Nora Princiotti, Sheil Kapadia, and Lindsay Jones Producer: Isaiah Blakely Social: Kiera Givens Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey there, humanoids. It's the Maskman David Shoemaker. It's a new era in professional wrestling, and that means a new era here at the Ringer Wrestling show. Kaz here, every Monday and Thursday hang out with me and my guys' shoes on the Masked Show. And Ben Cruz here. Come kick it with me, Cal, and Brian on Tuesdays for Ringer Wrestling worldwide, where we hit on the most interesting headlines and even react to some of Maskedmans and even your hottest takes. Don't tap out. Tap in to the Ringer Wrestling Show feed now on Spotify. or wherever you get your podcasts. Worldwide. And welcome to The Ringer NFL show. I'm Nora Prenziotti, and I am joined today by my two fabulous co-hosts.

That's Lindsay Jones. Lindsay, hello, happy Monday. Hi, how are you? Excellent. And Sheal Capadia, Sheal. Glad to see you as well. How was your weekend? Hello, hello.

Good to see everyone. Good. Always good. Great. Excellent. Well, felt like we needed to have some cheery and pleasant introduction. because what we're going to do today on the show is we are going to turn up the pressure. The pressure is on specifically the pressure index is what we're calling this episode,

for which Lindsay Shield and myself, we have each brought a couple of characters around the NFL. So coaches, GMs, players, miscellaneous other entities who are on some sort of hot seat, are feeling some type of pressure going into the 2024 season. And the way that we thought about that was who are the figures in the NFL world who going into this season have the most capacity to change how people think about them. So either, you know, maybe there's a lot of pressure on someone because they've got a real opening to become a household name, become a, you know, a real superstar, the type of sort of bankable athlete that gets big commercials and where my mom's heard of them and make that

type of change. Or it could be, you know, it could be as simple as a coach who's on the hot seat ending up getting fired, but more so than like losing a job or a transaction in that way. It's sort of about going from, oh, we think this person might be sort of like a, you know, genius scheme person. And then if things go badly in a certain way, we might look at them as just having totally flopped. So that's the basic rubric. And we've each got two. We don't know what each other's selections are. And there are certain figures who I think are kind of tent pulls to this discussion. So if we've all chosen, we all have a few backups in case we have some overlap. So I think we'll be able to get through a lot of the kind of key,

key figures under pressure going into the 2024 NFL season. Sheel, any thoughts about how you sort of like approached this exercise? Anything you want to, want to kick us off with before we get into the list? I went with the layups. I was like, you know what? Don't overthink it. Let's identify. You know, you guys might have more under the radar selections. I don't know. I feel like I started this exercise. Like, don't overthink it. I don't need to be. be a hero. Let's identify the real, you know, top of the. So I might have ones that you, you both have. And so I do have an extra one there. But yeah, I've got coach, non-coach and

player as kind of my, you know, including my, my backup there. And it is like when you sit down and think about the way some of their reputations could change based on just one season, based on four or five months. And then you think about like how their lives could change, their legacies, all these things you think about. I think it'll be a fun discussion for some of these guys. Love it. Sometimes you don't need to get too cute with it, you know? The main guys are the main guys.

Lindsay, what was your sort of framework for this? Yeah, I mean, it's similar to Sheal in that, like, who are the people that we're going to be talking about a lot this season, who are going to be the names that define this year for good or bad in terms of, like, you know, could win the Super Bowl or could, you know, have their entire franchise. is blown up. And, you know, I think one of the things that I was considering and, you know, not to, you know, jump ahead too fast or, you know, spoil too much of this is like, I think there's a couple organizations where it's really hard to define exactly who's the person under the most

amount of pressure. So I'm really kind of excited to see if we take a team like the Dallas Cowboys or the New York Jets. Like, how do we divvy up that pressure and figure out who kind of has the most at stake? So that was the most fun part of this exercise to me was, you know, look at some of these, you know, kind of important teams, teams on the brink and figure out, you know, who really is under the most pressure and what does that kind of pressure mean? That's my favorite part of this is when you take those organizations where it does feel like this is a make or break year. And, you know, there's more than a handful of teams, right, that fall into that category. But the teams where it feels like broadly, they can really shift the direction of the franchise

literally or at least sort of reputational over the course of this season. The thing that's most interesting to me about this conversation is like how you sort out who is going to get the credit and or the blame for that. Sheel, maybe since you said that you went with some usual suspects for this, I'm guessing you might be hitting one or a couple of those organizations. So maybe why don't you kick us off and give us your first content.

for the pressure index. I'm starting local. I generally save the local takes for the ringers Philly special. But as I looked at it, I really tried to get out of my, you know, Philadelphia suburb bubble and be like, are you sure? And I came back to Nick Siriani as the layout. I mean, I was looking at all the coaches in the NFL because it goes to what you both were just talking about, divvying up the blame.

And a lot of them I could say, well, you know, maybe the GM, maybe the quarterback. In Philadelphia, the owner and the GM are attached at the hip. The quarterback got $50 million per year. And there was this story in ESPN, which we all read. And if you're listening to this, you probably read or at least know about Bill Belichick this all season. There was a lot of great stuff about Bill Belichick in there. But one thing that I think got underplayed locally and nationally was the Eagles involvement in that article. And for those who don't remember it, it basically said that teams that have a head coach, some teams that had a head coach, at least considered the idea of going after Bill Belichick.

And the Eagles were one of those teams. And then it downplayed it and said, well, you know, Jeffrey Lurie came to the conclusion that you don't want to blow up the whole franchise, the whole operation for maybe two years of Bill Belichick. And so there were Eagles fans when I talked about this on the Ringers Philly special. They said, oh, come on. The conclusion is they didn't think they didn't do it. And I said, no, no, to get to the point where that thoughts in your head, to then get to the point where, well, it's probably not worth it. Like, there's a line between A and B there, or you had some consideration, some discussions internally.

So Nick Siriani is entering his fourth season as the Eagles head coach. He's won 67% of his games. He's been in the playoffs three straight years. He's gotten to his Super Bowl. And yet I thought the man was getting fired at the end of last season. He didn't get fired. They bring in Vic Fangio. They bring in Kellynne Moore.

They kind of strip him of all of his power and basically say, just manage the people. We are putting in place. We are giving you a good team. We're adding Sequin Barclay. The pieces are in place. Just don't screw it up. And so there's a scenario if the Eagles win the Super Bowl, if they get to the Super Bowl, and I think they're among what, the three, four, five contenders in the NFC,

where we're saying, well, Nick Serial. He's four seasons as a head coach. He's been to the Super Bowl twice. He's been to the playoffs every year. He might be a Philadelphia hero by the time we get to the mid-February. And then there's the other scenario because the bar is very high. This isn't like make the playoffs. This isn't win 10 games.

If you go win 10 games and are out in the first round of the playoffs, I feel pretty strongly that Nick Siriani's not going to be the head coach going forward. And then league-wide, if other teams are looking at this and saying, man, he couldn't make it happen with that. offensive roster with with Vic Fangio as his defensive coordinator. I don't think he's going to be a hot name to be a head coach in next cycle. I mean, he could be looking at a coordinator job. He could be looking at something completely different. So it's just, it's this weird situation where you have a Super Bowl contender where it's known that the head coach is basically coaching for his job.

And as I just described, it could go in either direction. So that's why I took the layup. I didn't overthink it. I went with Nick Siriani. I love this. Yeah. I mean, we had to have this conversation. I had him on my list as well. So I'll dip into my backups when we get further in this conversation. But I completely agree. The things that I would add just in terms of ratcheting up the pressure is I think there's also a situation in which you have Shane Stuyken potentially thriving in Indianapolis.

Maybe, you know, season wears on and Anthony Richardson becomes one of the stories of 2020. and we're looking at it and going like, oh, wow, guess we know who had the real magic of how to make things work with a mobile quarterback like that, right? And then one of the things that had been a calling card for Nick Seriani all of a sudden is called into question. Even your guy, Jonathan Gannon, it hasn't been so bad. It really hasn't been so bad. The thing that I can't quite figure out, and I'm curious, Lindsay, how you think this might, how you'd sort of like sort through the likelihood of different scenarios playing out here is what Vic Fangio means in this, inside this dynamic in Philadelphia, just in terms of on the one hand, that should make things a little bit scarier, I think, if you're Siriani. When you have someone who is, you know, the easiest interim, if you want to, if things, go really badly, right? And there's a mid-season move or something. That's easier to do when you

have someone on the staff where it's like, oh, that's cool. We know he knows how to do it. Potentially, it's just temporary. I do wonder if that would require a little bit of relationship management with Fangio if the move is to then call up Bill Belichick at the end of the season. but, you know, broadly speaking, I totally agree. Lindsay, I was posing to you what you think the presence of Fangio sort of adds to this dynamic. Yeah, I mean, I think it eliminates a bit of the like potential excuse making, you know, in that this is the second year in a row where Nick Siriani has had to replace both of his coordinators. And it failed pretty miserably the first time when he had to replace both Gannon and Shane Steakin.

You know, he found himself in a position where he was... Had a big Matt Patricia guy? Turning his, yeah, turning his defense over to Matt Patricia in the middle of the season. And you kind of can get maybe like one mulligan there, right? Like, okay, you know, you promoted some guys from within and it didn't work and, you know, we're trying some different things. Well, you brought in Kellyn Moore and Vic Fangio, who are both very proven established coordinators who have, like, fairly clear identities of what a Kellynmore offense is going to look like.

and certainly what a Vic Fangio defense is going to look like. My big question of what I wrote down, because I obviously had, maybe not obviously, but I had Nick Seriani on my list here too. And, you know, I think my big question is, and this is one that our colleague, Ben Glickson, at the ringer likes to pose to us internally a lot, is what exactly does Nick Seriani do?

Like, what do you do here? And, you know, I remember, you know, she'll, you wrote about this a lot and talked about this a lot during their Super Bowl run a couple seasons ago, was that, like, you know, he just, when things are going well, he has, like, a really good, like, pulse on the team. And during that season and especially during that playoff run, like, he just, like, the vibes were really good.

And he knew when to challenge. He knew when to get up emotionally. He knew when to rein things in. You know, he was really, like, in sync with Jalen Hertz and what Jalen Hertz needed. And, like, you know, personality-wise, they're very different. So, like, it worked well. But, like, if you're a vibes coach and then, like,

your team collapses in embarrassing, like, historic type of fashion. Like they did last year, a lot of that's on you. And like, you know, I think that the coaches that he brought in, you know, Vic is like he's kind of like a grumpy old guy, right? I mean, he's kind of. Okay, very much. Prototypical grumpy old jump.

Yeah. And like, but like, you know, he carries a lot of weight in that room. He's going to have a lot of authority over, you know, everything that happens on that defense. And he didn't leave Miami because he was a bad coach. Like it was just there were personality conflicts going on. It wasn't the right fit. There were a lot of players who were very happy to see him go. So it's just like the vibes are going to be really, really interesting.

And like, Sheel, I'm really excited for you to like go out to a couple of days of Eagles training camp and like hop on Philly Special and tell us just like what the vibes are like out at NovaCare. Because I think it's going to be really, really interesting because there is so much pressure on this one, you know, this one person. What is the offensive identity going to be like? what does leadership look like kind of in this post Jason Kelsey era? Like this is a team that's going to face some adversity and can they do it better than they did last season? So they're really one of my most interesting teams to watch this season. And Seriani's right, right at the top.

Yeah, it's a, it's a wild mix because I mean, Vic Fancio had his, you know, opening press conference and he was basically like ripping on load management in the NBA and like players. He's like, players today haven't changed just the people around them. And you know what organization believes. Such a good bit. Yeah. You know what organization? That's so good.

That's so good old man defensive coordinator. I agree. I was so jealous. I'm like, shoot, I should have had this as a take like last year or something. Well, you are looking for a guest host periodically now in Philly special. It's invite them on. Bring him in. Actually, I'd love that for you on extra point taken to just randomly like a couple times a year,

just come in and like rip one off about a completely different sport. I'm adding it to my notes. I have a spreadsheet here somewhere. I mean, but the personality dynamics, I mean, you know, you mentioned Kellyn Moore and Vic Fancio. It's like, all right, Nick Siriani maybe like kind of approved these, but like Nick Seriani doesn't really have the authority given how last season ends to be like, I'm going to, you know, put my stamp on here are the guys I wanted.

And then you have an organization that believes in keeping guys healthy and having a, you know, kind of a low-key training camp to not run players into the ground. and now you have Vic Fangio coming in with a totally different side. Like Nick Tiriani is going to have nothing to do with the defensive side of the ball. He made like a throwaway comment that well, you know, now that I'm not so as involved in the offense, maybe I'll check in the defensive meeting rooms once in a while. I'm like, Vic's going to have those doors locked. Like you're not getting in there, my friend, sorry.

And then Kellyn Moore, like you bring in Kellynne Moore with the idea that like here are some nice pieces. Like I've said it, but this is the best group of skill position players the Eagles have had in my lifetime. I mean, when you look at it, AJ Brown, Devante Smith, Saquan, Barclay, Jalen Hertz and Dallas Goddard, like, you know, what is Donovan McNabb thinking about this? What is Doug Pete? Like, they didn't have anything close to these guys when they played. And so it is an interesting mix.

Siriani's job, I guess, is just to kind of manage the personalities, be sort of the culture coach. But to your point, he's not the steady hand. Like Jalen Hertz is sort of the steady hand stoic. Nick Siriani is like, you know, yelling at Chiefs fans after a win, or letting this thing snowball to the biggest collapse in NFL history. So there are so many factors at play.

There's such a high, high variance team for 2024. Even parts of this conversation, I think speak to the tricky, like the tricky position he's in in the sense that, you know, Glyxon saying like what exactly is that that he does? Because we're describing Nixiriani as a vibes coach. And I do not believe that that was the original Nixiriani. proposition. Nixiriani was supposed to be a scheme guy.

Yeah. And it feels very much to me what is coming through in this conversation is that he is no longer, like he has sort of already been knocked off that pedestal. And so now we're asking Nixirani to be a vibes guy. And maybe he'll find a way to do that. I mean, I think he's had some moments where, you know, one of my favorite extra point taken tropes or things that, that you and Ben revealed to me, is, or maybe I heard this on Philly special.

I don't know. I feel like you guys have talked about it on both shows. But pandering to Philadelphia being a Nixiriani specialty, I love that. I love the idea that this guy is just like getting up at podiums and shouting out Temple. And I believe that there's a place for that in the league. And I wouldn't count out. And maybe this is sort of like the more interesting possibility in some ways that there is a world in which like this is a really good roster.

Maybe the defense does click under Fangio. And I think our wonderful producer, Connor Evans, made a joke in our pre-production meeting about there's a world in which it's January and Nick Seriani is like ripping his shirt off in a press conference. And everybody's all about it. And like he kind of becomes a cult hero in a certain way. So like I don't want to discount the high end of this.

But he's just in such an interesting situation. for a number of reasons. I mean, first of all, he has already survived coaching what was the first team to start a season 10 and 1 and then finish with six losses since 1986, which was the Jets. And Jets' records of falling apart feel like territory you just sort of don't want to be in. So I think, you know, what's come through to me is like, yes, it feels. very primed for this like face plant.

He gets fired. He's on the hot seat. He gets replaced. Does he struggle to get a job? Does he have to go, you know, be, be a coordinator somewhere. I mean, God forbid a position. Like the rehab part of it. But I, again, I don't want to discount the high end because there is a world in which

this is just like a great roster. And Nick Siriani like, uh, ends up to your point. Lindsay being someone who could make two Super Bowl runs or really deep playoff runs. So it's a good place to start because there's just such a wide spectrum. Lindsay, I think you said that you had Siriani as well, but do you want to give us another one? Sure. I'll go to a team that I think it's a little bit harder to determine exactly who, you know, where the decision maker is the most important people rank on the pressure index.

And that's the New York Jets. And I'm going to go with Aaron Rogers, kind of in hopes that I think both of you might have other people here. And I'm kind of interested to see where this all falls. And for me, I'm going with Rogers, not because this is a guy who could lose his job. Like, I don't think there's a situation where, like, Aaron Rogers is going to get cut or benched. For me, I'm putting Aaron Rogers kind of at the top of this pressure index pyramid with the Jets because this is about kind of, it's like reputation. It is legacy. And finally, it's about football.

Like, this is a guy that we have not seen him play good football in a really long time. The last time we saw him play a full game, January 8th, 20203. That was the week 17 game that they lost to the Lions to not make the playoffs, his final game with the Packers. He had that kind of, like, awkward coming off the field where, like, we all, that was when we all knew, like, oh, this is done. He wouldn't exchange his jersey. he hasn't thrown for over three more than 300 yards in a game since December of 2021. Like it's been a while since we've seen like a really strong like that wasn't a great season,

his last season in Green Bay. So it's just been so long since we've simply gotten to like talk about Aaron Rogers like the football player. I mean, we all know we don't need to rehash everything that happened last off season with the trade to the Jets and all of the monumental like, you know, all of the hype and the hard knocks of it all. And, um, but really since the last time we saw him play actual football, like meaningful games, we've only known like Aaron Rogers podcast guest and conspiracy theorist and potential vice presidential candidate and medical marvel or whatever. You know, we, we have not gotten to like see him as a football player.

So the Jets are heading into a season where they might have like the greatest. variance of outcomes of just about any team in the league. And I listened to the pod you guys did last week where you put the teams in, you know, you put everybody into tiers, right? Teams that could win the Super Bowl versus teams that are already going to be looking forward to 2025. And they, I don't know if I could see an outcome where they're necessarily in like the scouting to 2025 because the roster is good, right? I mean, the talent is there. But this is a team where their outcomes are winning the Super Bowl, or at least making the Super Bowl, or everybody gets fired. Everybody in like pivotal roles from GM to head coach to moving on from a quarterback, you know,

potentially this whole thing gets blown up. So I just think this is going to be such a pressure-filled year for Aaron Rogers quarterback because he has spent so much time making it about like the Aaron Roger's not quarterback and Aaron Rogers, like the persona and the everything else that when it comes to just football, like, who is he as a quarterback now at 40 years old coming off in Achilles tendon? They've heavily invested in the roster around him in terms of upgrading the offensive line. They used a first round pick on an offensive tackle.

They added Mike Williams. Breeze Hall is now another year removed from his ACL. So I'm just like, I think it's just a really, really interesting dynamic. I wouldn't put him atop a hot seat ranking. But I just think in terms of like interesting people who have a lot at stake this year, I'm going with Rogers. And I'm really curious how you guys look at that kind of triumbrant with Joe Douglas and Robert Sala and Rogers and how it all balances out. So here's the question that I would ask you is what is what is actually at stake for Rogers? And maybe one way of getting into that conversation is, is my asking another question,

which is, do you think that there is anything that Aaron Rogers could do this season that makes him not a pretty obvious Hall of Fame candidate? No. No. I mean, that's why I struggle with this. I just think Aaron Rogers' football reputation is baked at this point. But I do think it would change ultimately, like, the way that we, like, if this is, let's say this is his last season. unless he plays one more year, let's say as Achilles does the funniest thing ever

on Monday night football in San Francisco. It's not funny, but it is funny. Like, of course we don't hope for that. For the content, for the content guides, right? We're all here for the content. Like, if, you know, when I'm sitting in that Hall of Fame discussion meeting in five years, six years, seven years from now,

it's going to be a pretty short football conversation about Aaron Rogers, right? But I do think, like, football-wise, like, so many guys try to have this second chapter, right? It's now become really common. Tom Brady leaves New England, wins the Super Bowl with the Bucks. Peyton Manning leaves Indianapolis, becomes an MVP in Denver. You know, I mean, those are like the biggest examples. You know, we've seen other guys fail, right?

Russell, getting the trade to Denver and now being moved on, you know, got onto his third team so quickly. but like I think Aaron Rogers cares a lot about his like legacy and how people like view him as a football player. And right now his second chapter, the chance to prove that like it's him, right? That like he is one of those greatest quarterbacks of all time. Like I just think there's a lot at stake to just show that this second chapter that like he won like the breakup with Green Bay. Like he hasn't. Yeah. That hasn't happened yet.

So, like, I don't think, like, long term. He's, he's obviously a Hall of Famer. But just in terms of, like, this chapter and what it means with how badly everything went last year, there's just, it's just going to be such an interesting chance for him to make us stop talking about, like, him going on frigging Tucker Carlson's podcast. And even though I think he probably wants us to, but like, well, but it's interesting because you start to see him actually, you know, I think Aaron Roger. for so long clearly wanted to be thought of as something other than a football player. And I wonder if he's almost starting to go back in the other direction. I'm over-analyzing totally. But I noticed that I guess it was on that Tucker Carlson appearance.

I saw it aggregated somewhere. But he was asked about being on the VP shortlist. And the first thing he said was like, I thought it was crazy. I'm a football player. And I was like, oh, I haven't heard Aaron Rogers articulate himself as a football players in a long time. It's possible I'm totally overextending that. But it just struck me as interesting. We can get to some of the sort of potential other jets under pressure.

But, Sheel, I'm curious how you're looking at Rogers going into the season. Yeah, I think it's just, I mean, it's really is an all-time bizarre career arc when you think of like what we thought about Aaron Rogers, maybe what, four years ago. It was like great quarterback. Maybe was my favorite quarterback ever to watch until Patrick Mahomes came along. A little bit quirky, you know, the family stuff. All right, that's weird. But hey, I'm not there. I don't really know about it.

And now we like no. Now we know like almost too much about them. And it's like, all right, the guys who, you know, the players who say they don't care what anyone else thinks, that's another life rule. If you constantly tell us you don't care what other people think, you are the people who care the most about what other people think. And so we just know so much more about. about him. I mean, to me, it is, he's a hard one because you're right. I mean, Aaron Rogers could

retire tomorrow. Lindsay, like you said, you'll be in the Hall of Fame meeting. Aaron Rogers, Hall of Famer. Yes, all right, move on to the next person. But you are right about that last chapter. I mean, every quarterback of this era is really, unless injury prevents you from doing it, you're trying to show, I mean, like, I do think of Tom Brady a little bit differently that he went to Tampa without Belichick under those circumstances and won a Super Bowl? Like, that's absurd. I mean, that did, you know, when you're having the Brady Belichick conversations, like that has to come up. Absolutely. And it goes back even further. Brett Farve even, you know, he had another chapter after Green Bay. So to me, it's like there's so much at stake for the Jets as an organization.

Just the, I mean, they've had so much misery. Jets fans, really, they've had this drought, this playoff drought. And it's just like, Ken Rogers come in. He would like nothing more than to come in and be the savior. And the savior doesn't even mean winning a Super Bowl. I mean, if this team wins 10 or 11 games, wins a playoff game. Like Jets fans will be talking about this season 10 years from now. That's the argument I always had with Solac. He's like, no, if they don't want to, I'm like, they don't have to win a Super Bowl for Jets fans to be happy about this. Like the bar there to clear is very low. It's kind of the opposite of what we talked about with the Eagles where they just have to be like, be good. Don't be a laughing stock. Don't be the team everyone's making fun of.

They don't want to be the ones who are just punching bags over and over and over again. Like I have a sympathy for Jets fans in that respect. So if Rogers can come in and do that, I do think it's meaningful. I do think it, you know, adds his reputation as a as a football player for sure. Yeah. The sort of second act point, I guess, is interesting. I wonder if Rogers, because he's become, because he's incorporated so much of the off-field stuff into just sort of like how people think of him now, I wonder, I guess I just, the thing for me is like, are we just going to eventually remember Jets Aaron Rogers,

barring like, you know, some crazy super rule run this year or whatever? Is it just going to be like, oh yeah, that was sort of weird? Like he went to the Jets and was sort of weird. It's just going to be in the like the weird shit that he did in 2023, 2020. Right. And like, right, exactly. Like being quarterback of the Jets is going to be like another just strange opinion. I do.

But I also, the other thing that I'm sort of like interrogating in terms of how I'm thinking about it is that I don't look at Aaron Rogers, Jets quarterback as being asked to do very much. But I wonder how like to your, to the casual football fan, if the Jets win a lot of games to your, this I think would back up your your choice here, Lindsay. I do think a lot of casual fans are going to be like, oh, Aaron Rogers is still a great quarterback. Whereas it does feel like sort of what's being asked of him is be a professional, be able to understand defenses, don't be Zach Wilson. And take advantage of this roster that's in a really good place. So I wonder if there's a potential like a little bit of a,

like design the offense, call the plays. Right. Like call the plays, be the coordinator. Overcome the handicap that your, your coordinators. Sure. Yeah. So I wonder if there's like a little bit of a split in terms of how much it would impact him for like football hardos versus non. Well, it's so interesting. It's like they, and this is where like Douglas and Sala have like, and this is what they did last year is they like gave him the authority to like run this team and like Yes, they were like, you run the New York Jets, which is, it's just fascinating.

You pick the players. You pick the offensive coordinator. And then we've seen what it looks like when you have the quarterback removed. You run the practices practically. You write the script for hard knocks. I mean, it was like literally everything. And all of that stuff is still in place now. And the people who tend to or, you know, could stand to lose the most because of it are these other two guys.

Right. It's, it's Sal and Douglas. I think in particular, Douglas, except from the through the lens of like, sometimes just nobody cares about general managers, I just think that if this goes up in flames, Joe Douglas, who has primarily, I think, been a good decision maker when he's dealing with pretty much any position other than quarterback, Joe Douglas is going to have two disastrous quarterback selections hanging on him. And I just don't see how that's not like very sticky. So in that sense to me, I feel like if if the Aaron Rogers Jets experiment like really truly goes up in flames, I will look to him first. But that is definitely like that's the flip side of sort of what's the difference between the not football hipster, but football enthusiast podcaster lens versus something that's like a little. little bit more broad because reflection on general manager versus reflection of a quarterback is, I think it is going to be skewed. I just, I just think that if Joe Douglas has to answer for

Zach Wilson and then going on a limb for Aaron Rogers and having that go up in flames, I just, I don't know how you come back from that. So he would be my pick. That's your pick. Okay. Yeah. I mean, it's Wilson, absolutely, with Rogers. I'm sort of like, well, what were the alternatives at the time where he made that trade. You know, how do you get off of a horrible draft pick at quarterback and move on to the next thing? And I think most people at the time, I was in this boat and we're like, yeah, that's a reasonable move. go get Aaron Rogers.

And you have a good roster and try to win that way. So you are right. I mean, I don't like, he's not going to survive it. We know that. And most of the time GMs don't get a second opportunity. It is interesting. If you zoom out and are like, all right, if this goes, if this goes well, all right, they make the playoffs. and you probably try to run it back for 2025 and add to the roster and everybody stays in place.

If it doesn't go well, whoever the new GM is, like you have elite, I don't know if elite talent is, right, but you have like wide receiver one. You have a cornerback one. You just drafted a left tackle. You've got a great defensive tackle. Like it's sort of an interesting infrastructure to plug in a new group of coach GM quarterback into. Like you're not starting from scratch. like a lot of franchises might. And so with Rogers, it's just hard to know because if it doesn't go well and

Roger says, no, no, I want to still play for the Jets in 2025, then what happens? I mean, I don't know. Nathaniel Hackett is the only one who stays. Is that what the outcome is going to be? I don't know what it looks like. And if that's the outcome, then it's a complete disaster. It is like the idea of what happens if the Jets are just sort of like middling. This season is very confusing to me.

Like I need, look, Aaron Rogers, I do not share a lot of Aaron Rogers's viewpoints outside of football. If they win the Super Bowl, I'll be thrilled. It'll be amazing content. If it absolutely crashes and burns, that's going to be interesting to cover too. A 2024 jet season where they're just sort of like, they get a wild card spot and then lose. Like what are we doing that? It's going to be really upsetting. Well, so, Sheel, you spend a lot of time kind of like analyzing coaching decisions and stuff.

So like, what's the stake for Sala here, given this roster that Joe Douglas has kind of built and the coaching staff that's in place? Where would you have him in this pressure index? I mean, if I were Sala's agent, I would be like, you stuck my guy with Zach Wilson for two years and they won seven games both of those years. Come on, no coach in the NFL is going seven and ten better than seven and ten with Zach. I don't think, like, I think he's very average, mediocre. I will say the defensive stuff that he brought from San Francisco to a new place that doesn't always translate and their defense has been really, really good the last two seasons. So I think he gets credit for that.

It hasn't seemed like a buttoned up organization. But then again, I think league-wide people will be like, well, it's the Jets. You know, like when is that ever been a buttoned-up organization? So yeah, his job is on the line. There's no doubt about it. At the same time, if I'm in his corner, I could make the case that, You saddled him with Zach Wilson. He had to keep Nathaniel Hackett, because otherwise Aaron Rogers is going to be unhappy.

Like, he doesn't have a lot to do on that side of the ball. What's he supposed to do? He is responsible for the defensive side of the ball, and the defensive side of the ball has been pretty good. So in terms of overall coaching, I think he's probably, again, like an average, I would put him in a bucket with a lot of the other coaches in the NFL. But, yeah, he will, you know, I don't know that there's anything other than coaching the defense that he's really brought to the table. doesn't in this case I think there's there's a fair amount of pressure to go around in New York and therefore we can give a little bit to Aaron Rogers we can give a little bit to it's like the end of mean girls you know you break off a little bit of the crown

so we do a wild card and just like throw out do a shout to our co-worker and co-host Austin Gale with the other pressure person under thing under pressure in in New York the turf the MetLife Stadium turf is probably under the most pressure Actually, I'm totally on board with this take. We just, um, Austin, the absolute take master that he is felt strongly that the turf deserved to be a part of this conversation, which I think there's merit to. I mean, look, like, as the schedule gets built out in ways that impact the amount of rest that players are going to get more and more and more, I think the other things that

contribute to injuries and injury risk are going to have a bigger and bigger spotlight, too, because we'll probably be talking about player health and safety even more. And also because the things that sort of, I think people on some level understand that the NFL wants more games and they want more games and more windows and that they are going to find a way to make it happen. and that they know that it's bad for the players, but they're going to find a way to make it happen. And history says that they're successful when they set their mind to doing something bad.

So the stuff that feels a little bit more possible in terms of the concessions, I think the turf is up there. I'm into it. And we get, you know, we get closer to the World Cup at MetLife. The Jets have the most, like, injury risk roster of any team ever, it feels like. I'm totally there. And the Giants too have a little bit. you know, the giants have some questions there, too, with the quarterback coming off at

an ACL and some other injury questions there. For sure. Yeah. And there have been, there have been stadiums like where it was at Minnesota, where they swapped out the really bad. I'm forgetting the specific name, but there's one type of turf. There's one type of synthetic surface that is like considered the worst of the worst. And I think there have been a couple places that have swapped that out. You know, there's been some changes, which I think puts a brighter spotlight on the places that haven't changed over the turf.

I don't know if Austin was going for the MetLife turf specifically or just turf broadly. But the MetLife turf in particular does feel like it's got a lot riding on it. Maybe since we just did the – we've done the Jets. We've done the Eagles. It feels like there's a third organization. that like really needs to be centered in this conversation, which I think is the Dallas Cowboys. And I think Mike McCarthy is is pretty obviously under a lot of pressure.

He is quite clearly coaching for his job this season. And he is also coaching in a situation where Dak Prescott seems likely to be headed for free agency. There are a lot of other long-term questions about that roster. which is sort of interesting because, look, if he succeeds this season, which I'm sure he would like to do, and I'm sure Mike McCarthy wants to continue to be the coach of the Dallas Cowboys, this is just a little bit interesting to me because it's like, clearly he's under pressure to coach for his job.

If he succeeds in that, he's probably going to inherit like an absolute mess of a situation. with like really complicated questions to answer about what parts of your roster you prioritize. Do you need to get a new quarterback? Can you salvage the relationship? You know, how does Dak feel about the organization? How does he feel about Jerry Jones? How much of a long-term commitment would he ever get? So I wonder if I wonder if anybody went in any other direction with the Cowboys.

It seems like McCarthy is just so clearly the answer. and yet that feels like it's been the case for a couple of seasons. But the funny thing about right now is now it feels like there are all of these other big questions that actually don't hinge on Mike McCarthy. So it's funny because I came to this and I put him on my list. But I put him down immediately and was like, yeah, Mike McCarthy, of course. And I think that's true. But the more that I think about it, it's sort of like, yeah, but there are all of these other

areas that just don't have the most to do with him. But Jerry Jones does not face pressure. So it's hard to sort through it, which is, of course, don't have your owner be your general manager. We should have learned this a long time ago. Sheel, how are you feeling about the Cowboys? Yeah, I have a different Cowboys figure on my list. Oh, I love it.

Okay. Second one. I did go with Jerry Jones because you're right. He's got $14 billion. He's going to be okay. No one's going to be crying for Jerry Jones. His life will be fine. This Cowboys team has been very good the last three seasons. They've had 36 wins second only to the Chiefs. Like I think people would be, I repeat that stat a lot because it surprises me every time I write it down or I read it. Like, holy cow, really? The last three seasons, only the Chiefs have won more games. They can win the Super Bowl this year. If I make a list of five teams in the NFC that can get to the Super Bowl. The Cowboys are on my list. I like Mike Zimmer quite a bit. I think he's going to be a good defensive coordinator for them. I think the NFC is pretty wide open. They didn't really add to the roster, but I still think there's probably enough there for them to be a really good team. So that's the, you know, the way we framed this, how does kind of the view or what's at stake, that's the high end of it. The other end is where I landed on Jones because the ramifications if they don't have a good season.

This man is used to being in control and getting what he wants for decades now, life, football, whatever. And he does not have control of the quarterback of his football team. Dak Prescott's in the final year of his deal. He has a no tag clause. If they go 14 and 3 and Dak Prescott says, you know what, I'm kind of sick of you guys. Like, I don't really like it here.

I want to go to Miami. I want to go to Los Angeles. They're not only going to pay. me, but the culture's better. I want to win a Super Bowl. I'm tired of everyone making fun of me every January when our team comes up short. See you, Jerry. Now all of a sudden, Jerry Jones is in a situation where because he doesn't spend on his players, we've talked about this has been a recurring theme on this feed throughout the offseason. I think it's really come to light this off season. They're 31st in cash spending. They let guys like Dak Prescott, C.D. Lamb, Micah Parsons. They play

hardball with them. They wait and they wait and they wait and the price goes up and he thinks they should take discounts because they get to play for the Dallas Cowboys. And that's not how players view it anymore in the year, 24. And so if it doesn't work out this year, you're left with a team with no succession plan at quarterback. You are 82 years old. If you're Jerry Jones, you will have gone 29 straight years without getting out of the divisional round. Like, I don't want to make this grim or be an agist, but like this may be your last best chance to finally, after decades of doing nothing, not being a factor, being overrated in the playoffs. This is your last chance to make a run in the NFC and get to the Super Bowl potentially win a Super Bowl. I mean, when you look at this

era, like the stuff they've wasted, you get Dak Prescott in the fourth round and you can't make anything of it. You get CD Lamb 17th overall, one of the, what, three best wide receivers in the NFL. You get Michael Parsons 12th overall, one of the best three defensive players in the NFL, and you still haven't made it happen. I just think that Jerry Jones is, and again, he's going to be fine. I understand. He's still the owner. He owns the team. There's only so low it can get when you have what he has. But I still think, like, he is going to take a massive hit in the scenario where they don't play well this season. Dak Prescott leaves. You're left with nothing. And now, who are the Dallas Cowboys in 2025.

So that's why I picked Jerry Jones for this one. You know what? I love it. I love it. You had the, you thought outside the box and you went for it with the take. And that's why you're a pro shield because you've convinced me. I think I looked at it and went,

Mike McCarthy is the answer because he is coaching for his job and he can, you know, he can lose something very tangible. But I think you're right. I think Jerry, even though, you know, he can't lose something tangible in that sense. I think there's a real, there's a real world in which people change the way that they think about Jerry Jones.

If there's, if this becomes a situation where the cowboys are not just sort of like underachieving or dramatic chokers in this way, but like really a mess. like really a mess and really a failure in terms of what they've made out of the resources that they've had and the good draft picks that they've made and the quality roster that that in general has been built there. And really it's interesting because it really does come down to the contract management.

It really does come down to the salary cap management and the approach to spending money and spending money on players, which is one of the easiest direct lines to draw to ownership, right? Like, especially when the ownership actually sets the roster. Actually sets the roster and actually has, you know, a position within the front office. I do think it's possible to look at the areas in which the Cowboys have drafted well

and go, yeah, sorry, like I don't really buy that Jerry's doing the scouting reports, right? But when it comes to not being proactive about paying players, waiting, holding out, being delusional about players potentially taking less money, like it really is an ownership conversation. So good on you, Sheel, good take. I'm shifting my pressure index from Mike McCarthy to Jerry Jones, although I do think this is another one where there's probably plenty of pressure to go around, except for Doc Prescott, who just has to be healthy.

Well, so here is my, so I actually want to throw in, like, Like, I want to add DAC into this conversation and not from like a like has a lot to lose type of situation. His floor is higher than any impending free agent that I think I can probably remember in like modern football. This is going to be such an interesting year for him because he is getting paid in 2025. No matter what happens. He could tear his Achilles in week one. He will get paid massively. He could tear his Achilles in week 17, and he is going to get paid.

I mean, look at what happened with Kirk Cousins this year, who is older and a worse quarterback and entering an offseason when there were really good quarterbacks also available in the draft where his team could have, and his team took one, which, you know, totally separate conversation. But so DAC is entering this really pivotal kind of contractual situation where, and I'm going to get to this here in a second too, but like there could be another couple quarterback contracts that are done before he actually comes up. So he's going to have a couple more to build off of. So I look at this season for him. One, I think there's a bit of like kind of reputational stuff that's tied in with all of this,

whereas like this is potentially the last year of this era of Cowboys football, of which, you know, Doc Prescott has been largely the face of it from a player standpoint. I mean, I think we could argue that Jerry Jones has been the face of the Cowboys for, you know, 30 plus years. But, you know, it's kind of the last year of this. We're going to have this endless cycle of like every game is going to be a referendum on Doc Prescott, on Mike McCarthy, on, you know, how much should Doc make or is Dak getting worth getting paid?

I mean, the takes on the Monday morning, you know, first take and stuff is going to be a little bit outrageous and maybe hard to watch and listen to throughout this year. But I just think like for Dak, like what's possible this year when you just like look at the financial landscape, the quarterback. market, the mess that the Cowboys are. And we just have not seen a situation like this where, I mean, look at the market for Kirk Cousins this year. How many teams are going to be falling over themselves to sign Dak Prescott next year if the Cowboys continue to mismanagement this, the way that I think we all expect that they're going to, right? Like, I don't think all of a sudden

Jerry Jones is going to be like, nope, here's the top of market deal. Let's just make this neat and tidy. I mean, just this head, this seems headed for, you know, one of the most interesting quarterback moves that we've ever seen. So I just like what I, I don't want to throw DAC into like the same type of pressure index. But I think he is one of the figures this season who has the most to gain. He's already going to get paid to take advantage of an opportunity. Yes, absolutely. No, that totally makes sense. And it's totally valid.

Yeah, he's going to be, you know, not just massively. He's going to be the highest paid quarterback in the NFL and the highest paid player in NFL history. I'm pretty comfortable. And it's not because he's the best player. We all know how this work. It's the timing. Like you said, Lindsay, it builds on the previous contract. And it's leverage.

You don't like the Cowboys have no. This is unprecedented for a quarterback who's 30 years old who has even if you're a DAC hater, you would say, what, he's performed at like a top 12 level. If you love DAC, you probably say, no, that's, you know, top eight, whatever it is. you just, Kurt Cousins at this age, often Achilles, who has been, you know, mediocre to slightly above average for a long period of time, gets that deal from the Falcons. And then Dak Prescott at this age, it's just going to be totally different. Now, I do think he definitely has at stake legacy-wide, wise, reputation-wise.

You know, he's looked at, as you mentioned, the face of that franchise, that's been a loser, chokers, underachievers, winning the regular season. Stephen A laughing at him in the playoffs. Like these are the images of the cowboys over the years that we all have. And who knows? In Dax's head, that might be a reason to say, I need to go somewhere else. Let me attach myself to a coach who's done it before. An organization that's more stable because not only do I want the money, which I can get anywhere,

but I also want to kind of change my legacy, change my reputation and make the most of my last, whatever, five, six seasons in the NFL. And to your point, like, we'll probably have. some pretty enticing potential choices of landing spot, right? Like beyond the money, I mean, you know, teams getting thrown around there, including like the dolphins, the Rams, the Steelers, like all of those are organizations that, you know, to varying degrees and in various ways, but coaching, roster, sort of proven recent infrastructure, all have.

have a lot to offer beyond just money. And obviously, the better he plays and the more successful he is this season, the more leverage and control he's going to be able to have over how many of those enticing opportunities really want to, really want to throw their hat in the ring. So I love it. A lot of good Cowboys options. Lindsay, I think you indicated somewhere in there that there was some connection to one of your next ones. Sure. Yeah. I mean, I was going to kind of do one that was like a little bit more of a wild card.

That was a little bit longer term for this season because the quarterback market is spinning or is quarterback market is advancing right now. Yeah. I mean, we got the Jared Goth contract last week to a tug of Iolo. I could get a contract at literally any moment potentially. I guess the market doesn't turn. The carousel turns. The market develops.

The market is building. Yeah, I mean, it's advancing. Yeah, any of these type of words. I don't know. I'm going to pretend. I'm not an editor here. Or CNBC. That's not what's on C-SPAN.

I'm like Jim Craver. Anyway, I'm sorry. I'm really sorry. None of us are the financial experts. Do not come to us for financial advice. Jim Kramer, you go span. That's the extent of my knowledge. But the point here is that in the short term,

Here as we're sitting May, June, probably into mid-July, is when the next batch of quarterback deals are getting done. We got Jared Gough already. There's a couple guys that are up that are ready to get new deals soon. To a Tugabialoa, Trevor Lawrence, Jordan, Love are the kind of that group. And is there anybody I'm missing from that? Sheal is our free agency master here. But that's kind of the group that's next.

This is the group that could get paid now that seem ready, that have. of somewhat proven resumes, I think, when Tua gets his deal, we'll have a lot to discuss about that, but in terms of, like, where they are in their careers. What I'm looking for in 2024 of the person who potentially has the most approved going into a contract season is Brock Purdy. He is going to be eligible to get his new deal. I'm doing this when Stephen isn't on the pod, which feels criminal. all, but he is not eligible yet to negotiate his new deal. 2025 is when he is going to be able to sign.

So we spend so much time in our internal meetings on these feeds talking about who is Brock Porty as a quarterback. What is Kyle Shanahan want in a quarterback? He's not going to be next, right? These other guys are going to be next. So when we get to talk about Brock's ready for a contract extension, he has a lot to prove in 24 in terms of like what he is going to get paid. And is he going to be a top of the market type of quarterback?

Are the Niners Tim Kawakami, who covers Bay Area Sports for the Athletic, kind of put this out there's like maybe a Jalen Hertz type of structure that's a little bit more team friendly. They do it earlier because maybe that's the route to go. It's just, it's going to be such a fascinating scenario for this guy because I'm already, I've been reading a lot of stuff recently. This time last year, right, he was coming off of the elbow surgery. We didn't know, you know, he'd only had an eight game sample size of being a quarterback.

Now we've had this entire season of him as a starter where he's been an MVP candidate or the worst quarterback in the NFL. He didn't play well in the playoffs. He played well in the Super Bowl, but not good enough when it counted. It's just like every possibility is out there. And we're going to learn a lot, right? about who he is as a quarterback when he's been healthy. We're already, this is a line in the athletic today as we're recording this on Monday. Rock Pretty recently throughout the first pitch at a San Francisco Giants game.

It was high and tight and there was plenty of heat on his fastball. This is where we are. We're like watching Zip on these pitches. Like, oh, he's getting stronger. Look at his velocity. He's getting stronger. The takes are going to be kind of just really incredible. It makes him sound like the Hulk.

So yeah, I'm just like, I'm just fast. becoming more powerful by the day. Like, I don't know exactly who wrote that, but like, I'm just fast, you know, the purdy watch and the purdy takes. And we're now going to be doing this in the context in 2024 of like, well, what do the Niners think about him and where does he fit in this quarterback market? And by the time he comes up, the market is already going to be is going to be higher than it is today after the Goff deal. Right. Because we can, we can talk about, you know, okay, maybe it's sort of structurally in line with a Jalen Hertz. type of deal that's a little bit more team friendly. Cool. That adjusted for the changes in the market,

inflation, whatever you want to call it, it's going to be 50 some million dollars a year. Yeah. And I mean, the thing about the nine is like, right, if we're talking about who are the teams that win the Super Bowl, there's, it's a very, it's a small group in terms of like the actual favorites. And the Niners are there. And the Niners have built their team and have benefited greatly by the fact that they're not paying Brock Purdy anything. And their entire calculus is going to change here coming up. They're in the middle of it with the wide receiver situation right now with Iuk and Dibeau Samuel and how they're going to manage that moving forward. And once they pay Brock Purdy, assuming they do decide to pay Brock Purdy, which I guess we assumed that they're going to,

right? But I think it's dangerous to assume anything about it. I'm not quite there yet, but I think the history of the NFL says that they will do it. Yeah, but it's just, it's very where is the quarterback market going to be? What is the Niners salary? situation going to be in a year and just how much does Kyle Shanahan want him to be not just his quarterback of the moment, but like truly believes and financially is invested at him as being their very expensive franchise quarterback. And that's why I'm kind of put it. This is a, this is the next year conversation, but when we're setting the table for 2020. And people who potentially have the most to gain or the most to lose, right? Brock Purdy,

I think is right. It is right in the center of that conversation. It's a great one. It's a great one, and the reason I love it is because sometimes coaches, organizations, GMs have to tell us the truth with their actions. We've all been beat writers before. They lie to you in May, July, August, game starts. Wait a minute. I thought they said this guy was going to be playing here, or that this, they had faith in this guy, or that this guy was going to get targets. And then the data accumulates, he said, okay, they are telling me what they think of this player, of this coach, whatever, and you actually learn the truth. That's what this. Brock Bertie thing is about.

Kyle Shanahan can go to bat for him time and time again. And rightfully so, got to the Super Bowl. They had one of the best functioning offenses, most efficient offenses of the last decade last year, and he was the quarterback. He gets credit for that. But in Shanahan's head,

is he saying Brock Bertie's the guy. He is a major big time reason. He is impossible to replace. Because if that's the case, he's 25 years old. He got to a Super Bowl. The stats are there. you would say, like you said, nor historically in the NFL, that's a guy, you lock in, let's keep going, we're not even thinking about it.

Or in his head, does he say what a Stephen Ruiz might argue, that Brock Birdie is a cog in the machine, he is a robot, and he is not the thing that makes the offense go. And if he's thinking that, well, now it becomes a much more difficult situation because, like, not only, obviously there's a lot of stake this season. If you win the Super Bowl, no-brainer, all right, you go, you pay. and you move forward. Anything short of that, and by the way, Super Bowl losers have only gotten back to the Super Bowl once in the last 25 years or whatever it is. So it's very hard to get back. So you fall short of expectations. Well, now what do you do? Because he's going into the final year of his

contract in 2025. Do you add that little mysterious quarterback to the roster under the radar when no one's looking and say, well, maybe this guy could give me, you know, 80% of what Brock Purdy gives me at a fraction of what we might have to pay him. Do you go the other way? Is this a Jared Gough, Matthew Stafford's situation where you say, we've tried it with him. He got us to a certain level. But you know what?

I need the person who's going to take it to the next. Like all these scenarios are in play where Purdy is quarterbacking that team for the next decade. Where party is not quarterbacking that team in 2025. Now, that would be like an extreme case scenario. That's not the most likely scenario. But I think that's a great one, Lindsay, for all those reasons. I wonder, yeah, you can see the franchise tag potentially coming into play, but it's still complicated because he's, he's just so young that it's kind of like, you want to make a decision.

Like, you want to make a decision about, you know, how much of your future is tied up in this person. You're going to have to do that eventually. I do wonder just because of how he came into that role, if they might end up saying, look, we need to see another year. Like we need to go year to year a little bit more. And I guess I think, though it certainly depends on what happens this season. Brock Party probably isn't the type of player who has the leverage to be too upset about something like that. But the inspired take, Lindsay, this is such a good one. It's definitely going to be a subplot over the course of the season.

And I'm only sad that Stephen Ruiz is not on this plot to contribute to this discussion. I'm sure it would have been vibrant. Yeah, you can, I mean, you can like Bertie a lot at $985,000. Do you like him the same at $53 million for here? It's a very, very, very big difference in the two. I'll toss out another quarterback who's on my mind for this, who's Trevor Lawrence. That was my backup. That was my last one here.

Okay. Love it. I want to be very clear off the jump. I think Trevor Lawrence is a very good quarterback. and I would imagine there's very little that could happen this season that would really dramatically change my mind about that. That said, Jeremy Fowler, MESPN is reporting that Lawrence is fairly soon to be one of the next quarterbacks in that, you know, 50, 55 plus million club in terms of annual salary.

That contract is being worked out, coming down the pipeline. I don't know if that's like in any day now situation, but that's obviously brewing. And obviously that changes the outlook for the Jaguars because Trevor Lawrence is the type of quarterback who any team is lucky and excited to have that guy on their roster even at $50 something million a year. But it's a very different situation when you're talking about the rookie contract window. And since we're coming to the end of that with Lawrence, we're looking at it as, okay, it's going into that fourth year. He's won one playoff game.

And you look around the division. I don't know what the Titans are up to. But he's no longer the quarterback of the favorite team in the division. And maybe even the Colts could end up being tough outs too. So, you know, I haven't loved the Jaguar's moves writ large this offseason. It doesn't look like that team has a lot of forward momentum to get better than the sort of like, okay, they're in the mix, but they're a little bit disappointing, which has been how the first years of his career there have generally gone.

I don't see a lot of reason other than maybe just like things click, time, years are different, whatever. It's not a lot you can hang your hat on and say, oh, well, it should be different this year because of X, Y, Z. And then as the backdrop to that, I think the competition within the division is getting harder. People are looking to Houston as the real threat in the South. And again, this is a little bit like, you got to frame it properly because Trevor Lawrence is a really good quarterback. I really don't think that that's like broadly up for debate.

But I do think that there's a there's something at stake here, which is sort of going from being the like one of the generational prospect who delivered on that. And then kind of peering out into being the like the expensive quarterback of the third most exciting team in the AFC South. which as much as, you know, I think, I think this is a pro Trevor Lawrence podcast. I think this is a pro Trevor Lawrence organization generally. We kind of have to admit that that's not particularly exciting relative to the billing here. Sheal, what, what made you put Lawrence in the mix here? Yeah, I think you, you framed it well.

He's a good quarterback. Has he met expectations? No, have they, you know, like you look at it. And I think what we do, and I'm guilty of. of this too is that like you believe in a quarterback and then when that quarterback doesn't meet expectations you blame everything around them well the coaching the supporting cast the offensive line and then you dislike a quarterback and that quarterback performs really well and it's like well it's all you know it's all the other stuff around him like at some point the talent has to meet

the production you like there needs to be results and you know i think there is a scenario where Trevor lawrence like balls out this year and is one of the five best quarterbacks in the NFL. He's got that talent. He could have a surprise season. He could be in the MVP conversation if they overachieve. Maybe he was just injury. He did have injuries last year. So I'm like maybe the injuries kind of just slowed him down. But 2022, this felt like, all right, Urban Myers gone, competent coach. He's made the leap. Very good in 2022. And then 2023, he doesn't build on that. I mean, you look at the supporting cast last year, like Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Evan, Evan Ingram, Travis Etyn. I'm not saying that's like the greatest,

supporting cast of all. That's like a solid, like if you have a quarterback who you feel is a top 10 quarterback with that group, you should have a good offense. They didn't have a good offense. They were 18th in offensive DVOA. They have an offensive head coach who's won a Super Bowl before in Doug Peterson. It wasn't Urban Meyer anymore. Their defense was 10th in DVOA last year. Like the defense was not the reason like they were bad in spurts, but overall like they overachieved their defense. And again, they were eight and eight in any statistical category you want to look at. He was not a top 10 quarterback last season. So yeah, it's not usually with most of the great quarterbacks we've seen Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh, three years in,

you have seen the greatness clearly and you can, you know, pick nits and, you know, point out their flaws, but you have seen the greatness. I just don't know that we've seen it for him yet. You can say maybe you say 20, 22, we saw it. I don't know if it was quite at that level. So yeah, I think there's a high variance here. with Lawrence, where one, like I said, he has a great season. He makes the leap. Everyone's happy with Trevor Lawrence. But the other one, like, if they don't make the playoffs, is Doug Peterson, the head coach in 2025. And now you're paying Trevor Lawrence all this money. And he's on his third coach in five seasons. And he said one, potentially one good season out of that.

Like, that's just not the general trajectory we see for a quarterback who we think has that ceiling to be a great player. Maybe there are, is this a Matthew Stafford type situation? which is like the organization is not getting it right and we see the talent, but it's not being put all together and it might not happen until late in his career. So I think all those outcomes are in play. I'm with you. It's like with some of these guys, it feels like you have to tiptoe around it with a Trevor Lawrence or Justin Herbert because,

you know, you're going to get killed otherwise. But I think it's fair. But when a guy goes, you know, eight and eight and then nine and eight and it's not that wins are a quarterback stat. But again, to what we pointed out,

it's not like it was the worst situation in the world. You want a player of Trevor Lawrence's caliber to be able to elevate the team to make up for shortcomings on the roster. And I don't know that we've seen him do that consistently. And fair or not expectations matter. Did either of you consider putting Doug Peterson here instead of Trevor Lawrence as you were trying to kind of. I did. I felt like the team content with me, Lindsay, was like, that's kind of boring. I don't, you know, like I don't know.

And I was like, do I want to go Siriani and Doug Peterson and really play to like. this guy, man, all he talks about. So I stayed away from it. And also has already been like unceremoniously sacked. Yeah. So it's just, I don't know. It feels like it, it, this is really a relative to expectations based take. Right.

And, and, and, and Doug Peterson feels like he, despite the fact that he entered that job. and in some ways a very enviable position of only having Urban Meyer to compare himself to, it still wasn't quite the hype and fanfare of Trevor Lawrence, whose football reference nickname is the Prince who was promised, which I've never really heard anyone say, but it's there. To your point, though, Lindsay, I was looking up, as I was doing the Trevor Lawrence thing, I was looking up, Doug Peterson, if you take away the Super Bowl year, he's three games under 500 in his other six seasons as a head coach.

Like there's, well, you go to his pro, speaking of pro football reference, you go to his page, there's one big outlier season where amazing season has a statue, uh, outside Lincoln financial field for it. If you look at the rest, he's kind of been Jeff Fisherish for his, you know, for his other six seasons. So, uh, I think that's fair. Fighting words. So let's not put that on social.

That's not going to be good for me. Really made the most of that Super Bowl run. I mean, that man. knew he had a moment and he took it. He wrote a book. He gets a statue. Yeah. And then he did kind of the smart thing after like things, you know, blew up in Philadelphia and he lost his job and then he took a year off. And then he was an in-demand coach. And he kind of, he found himself in a very good situation with a franchise quarterback

and the lowest possible bar to clear. There was a lot of dysfunctionality going on in an organization. Maybe not the, I'm guessing Trent Balke probably wouldn't be my like first choice of GM that I would pick to work with, but like a lot of other stuff in that organization made a lot of sense. But he's given up play calling duties, kind of out of like charity to like try develop a young coach, but it hasn't really. Yeah, he should stop doing that. Yeah, like I'd like him to maybe, you know, call the plays. It's just I wonder, you know, we're talking about this with Siriani and some of these other situations of like, if this goes south, is there another head coaching opportunity for Doug Peterson? If you can't make it work with Trevor Lawrence,

And what you do well is you're the quarterback guy, you're an offense coordinator or offense coach. If it doesn't work here, what would what would be next for him? So I, you know, I think it's kind of a fascinating, you know, it's a little bit of a fascinating dynamic. But yeah, I'm with you guys on Trevor. Yeah, I don't think he would get another opportunity. You know, I think the only other interview he had in two years was with the Saints. And then even the Jaguars, I don't know that he was their first option for a head coach. And that was coming off, you know, two years removed from a Super Bowl. They tried to hire.

What did they try to get? I forgot. Byron Lefich. They tried to hire Byron Lefrich. Yes. And it fell apart because of like the GM. He wanted to bring his own GM. Okay.

If I recall correctly. Falky. There's a lot of like sliding doors moments going on here. Are we missing anyone from anyone's lists? Sheila. I know you said Trevor was your backup. Was there a second, was there another player that we didn't hit? No, I mean, I had some random names here, but no one who I really got deep into.

I had Sirian. You want toss them out? Just randomly? I'm curious. Well, I mean, all right, rapid fire. Here are my rapid fires. Antonio Pierce. If that thing goes badly, does he still coach the team after a year?

It's such a weird situation. He's fun. I like having him in the NFL. I hope it works out. You got Gardner Minshu and Aiden O'Connell. That was one. Sean Payton, you just put your reputation. on Bo Nix here.

This doesn't go well. If Bo Nix looks like a train wreck, what is this? You have no path forward to making that franchise good. On the other hand, if Bo Nix looks pretty good, it's like Sean Payton,

you shouldn't have touted him. Best offensive mind last 25 years. He knows what he's looking at at a quarterback. You don't know what you're looking at at a quarterback. He cleaned up that Russell Wilson mess. And now they're a playoff team. That was another one. And then the last one,

I couldn't get Bryce Young. Like Bryce Young is just forgot. We all just assumed Bryce Young is going to be terrible. and that that franchise is going to be, they're going to be a two-win team. Like, I don't know. Is there a chance? Bryce Young has a little bit of a bounce back and looks competent,

or is he on the Zach Wilson trajectory where he's out of there after this season? So those were on my Just Missed the Cutlist. There you go. I love it. Those are good ones. I like the Bryce Young. I like going out on a limb for Bryce Young.

Again, something else that Stephen Ruiz, I'm sad for him to miss this moment. There's been a lot of pounding on this podcast today. Sorry, Stephen. Well, all right. This has been fun, guys. These are the juicy storylines. You know, like, that's what's fun about this exercise is that it's a way to,

it's a way to, it's a way into a lot of the most intriguing dynamics. That are going to be a plan in the upcoming season. This has made me pumped. I feel ready. We can just start the season now. It's all good. Let's let it.

Let's go on vacation first. Can we take a little bit more of it? Cut that out of the pond. Edit that out. I'm just kidding. All right. We will, we will not do that. However, we will be back with more fun offseason content. We'll have some more just like fun exercises like this for you next week. That is, of course, always pending breaking news developments. We'll have anything that we need to have covered, covered. Thank you to Sheal and Lindsay for co-piliting this episode with me. It's

lovely to talk to you both. Thank you to Isaiah Blakely for producing this episode. Thank you to Kiara Givens and Eduardo Ocampo for their work on video and socials. And thank you, as always, to Connor and Evans and Arjuna, Rob Kapal for their additional production supervision.