The Ringer NFL Show - Wild-Card Weekend Picks, Props, and Predictions! | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: January 12, 2024

Sheil and Ben get you set for wild-card weekend, but first, the Patriots have found their successor to Bill Belichick. What are the expectations for Jerod Mayo as the next Patriots head coach? Can the injured Dolphins overcome the freezing-cold weather at Arrowhead against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs? Are people writing off the Steelers? Plus, picks, props and nonsense predictions! The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more, or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Ben Solak and Sheil Kapadia Producer: Cliff Augustin Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The ringer gambling feat is your one-stop shop for all things betting throughout the NFL season. From week one all the way through Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas, we have you covered every which way. We got our favorite futures. We got props. We'll discuss the lines. And, of course, we'll throw in a few parlets. That's a given. So whether you're a sharp or square better, we'll be breaking it down in terms.

Hopefully, everybody can understand. We'll try to win some money along the way. and be sure to subscribe to the ring of gambling feed on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Extra Pointe, Shield Compati here, joined by Ben Solac. Playoff six games, three days. Can't wait.

These two weekends, Ben, I feel like, are the two best weekends of the year. We've got all that going on. We've got all this coaching stuff going on. But legacies will be shaped here in the next month of the season. we're going to be talking about all of it. You look excited. You look like a... You're always excited, though.

This could be May. We could be talking about nothing, and you would still bring the same level of enthusiasm. You're like Jim Harbaugh. I appreciate that. That's the only comparison to Jim Harbaugh that I will take and I will accept. Yeah, but you're absolutely right. Wild Card Weekend, man.

I mean, always a good weekend. Division round, always good weekend. High intensity, games usually great. And matchups-wise, I love it. Every matchup we've got as good. and even the one where like Steelers bills is a 10 point line, those can be like a foot of snow and it's a Steelers Bill's game so anything can happen anyway.

You know what I'm saying? It's a, I think we're for a really, really fun weekend, I agree. Weather is a huge factor in a couple of these games this weekend. Before we get to the games, Ben, a little breaking news right before we came on. Gerard Mayo, the new New England Patriots head coach.

What is your initial reaction to this? No Mike Rable, no long search. They had the succession in a plan in place. and it's going to be Mayo. Do you want me to do the, I'll do the NFL reporter thing. Okay. Right?

I had one, draw, Mayo came on the pod three years ago. I talked him for 10 minutes. He was delightful. Great hire. I had one, Brad,

one, like, slight connection. I have one anecdote, and it was positive, so because of that, good hire. In general, I would say that I like the Mayo

promotion. We didn't talk a lot about Belichick, alternatives for New England because he hadn't really left yet we talked a lot about where does Belichick go we didn't talk a lot of that was where to New England go afterward

but one of the things that I think was important for like craft and for that organization is to have found someone who was decently Belichick adjacent which I know like all they've been doing is retryding the same guy so it's all been the same system but when you go from like such a

tent pole figure such a centralizing figure in Belichick and just try to go like completely. be a new direction, there are really big growing pains, right? Like, like, the idea of craft having to learn how to interact with a new head coach, like a new system, a new philosophy and everybody, like, owner takes on new roles, GM takes on new roles. Like, that's a lot. That was going to come with a ton of growing pains to it. So I don't mind the fact that they went for someone who has

familiarity to how things have worked into England previously. That's not to say Dron Mayle's going to become Belichick, but he's going to be the walking GM. I think they're very clearly going to change the structure of the front office a little bit. But in general, I think it's good to have some familiarity when you're making a change after that much time after that long with belichick going cold turkey and some work completely different i think would have been challenging so i i thought like the brable and mayo options made sense to them i think you you've clearly heard that like players love mayo and they've been impressed with mayo seems seems like he's a solid guy i think it makes sense i think it's a good hire for them yeah i didn't think they needed to do anything belichick adjacent

i think robert craft is going to find interact i think he's going to find interacting with any head coach to be a little bit more pleasant and delightful than maybe it was with Bell. That wasn't why the relationship worked because, you know, obviously the relationship worked because Belichick was a great coach and they won Super Bowl. So, I mean, I would have been fine. Like, they're not, you can have growing pains. This roster stinks. Like, they're not in position, you know, to be competing for a Super Bowl next year.

So I didn't think that was important. We can disagree there. But I think it's a fine hire. I think it shows a little, like they obviously had a plan in, place that you don't want to be caught off guard. I always say interview as many people as you can in these situations because you can just kind of steal ideas or see who's out there or maybe a year from now. You need a coordinator or you need someone else on your staff or hey, someone wants to get into scouting and you really like some of the things they said. So I always like that. But

at the same time, I think that this is fine. I mean, I think he's a qualified candidate. Obviously, I think you're giving him a chance. I think he's young. He's someone you can potentially grow with. like you said, you're going to change the structure. It's going to be different. And this is like the kind of coach you need is someone who, hey, build this thing so that we can have some sustained success for a long period of time. Or at least that's the goal. That's hard to achieve, but that's the goal.

This isn't a, hey, come in and let's win right now type situation. So, yeah, I'm curious to hear more from Gerard Mayo. I think it's going to be, you know, a different culture, a different environment there. For better or worse, obviously, from Belichick. but new era and you're right I don't think we talked at all about I mean I thought once Rable left Tennessee I mean I was that that really felt like

who is this gonna just is Vable just going to New England here and he's gonna replace Belichick so that's obviously not gonna happen so all these dominoes start to fall and now Brable is available for other teams so we will see where he lands all right yeah I do yeah your point on

interviewing people is good I wouldn't mind like same when they turned like the internet appears thing I wouldn't mind if they brought in some people and talked to them and landed on Mayo. I think that probably would have benefited them. I will say, like, the Mayo continuity with the defense is nice, because the defense was good. That's true.

Right? The Patriots were bad, but the defense was quite good with Judin injured, and Christian Gonzalez injured. Like this, they did great work on that side of the ball. And Mayo has a big hand in that. Obviously, Belichick, a huge hand of that as well, but Mayo was not like a figurehead. Mayo was impactful there.

You want to say anything about Braebor Pete? Well, I got Pete in one of my things here. So why don't we get to that? Oh, yeah. All right. We'll get to when we get there. Once we get there. All right, let's start with the headliners this weekend.

I had like three games that I would choose it from. And I was like, I'll pick which of one of the two that Solek doesn't pick. What's your headliner? What's your game? What's your matchup? What's your storyline? What's the number one thing you've got your eye on this weekend? The closest game to me is Rams Lions.

That's the game that I think is going to be the tightest. It's going to be the hottest contested. I've been ways deep on this game. I've done this piece on the Lions. I've been thinking about the Lions postseason run, and so this is the game that's got the most interest for me for sure. The matchup is this lion's defense against the Rams when they're throwing the football, and particularly how this is going to work. Next-Gen stats at an interesting note where the Lions have allowed the most yards and yards per attempt on passes between the numbers this season. Right now, there are three players, three defense players in the league who have been targeted at least 30 times, who have not forced a tight window target.

two of those players are Lions linebacker Jack Campbell and lines linebacker Derek Barnes. That's not great, right? So if you're suffering a lot between the numbers and your linebackers are particularly struggling in closed windows, then anecdotally you would assume, all right, this is a team that's really going to struggle against a Matthew Stafford-led Sean McVeigh scheme passing game. When you actually look at how the Rams passing game works this season, they rely on the area between the numbers a lot less than they used to, right? This is not the same Jared golf offense.

And obviously, everyone knows what the Jared golf offense looks like because, hey, the Lions are still running it right now on the other side of the ball. But this is not the same Sean McVeigh, Jared Golf offense, where you really had to live in the middle of the field in order to be successful. They still run a lot of inbreakers. They still run a lot of crossers. And they'll operate all of those routes, but they will throw the ball outside of the numbers.

They will throw outbreakers. They will throw swing patterns. Stafford gives them a much wider menu of throws. And so the Lions passing will struggle with the middle of the field. And I think that you're going to see the Rams hit that and try to attack that and be aggressive that direction. But that's not the, that's not like their bread is buttered here. This is the only way they go about things anymore.

And so I think that the concerns there can be a little bit overstated in terms of that matchup. What interests me the most is how the lion's corner two is able to take away the other of Fukutaku and Cooper Cup, right? I think that's the big thing. Because you have Cam Sutton. He's been corner one for them. Sutton's not exactly what you want in a corner one.

He's a guy where you'll take the matchups. You'll beat him one-on-one. I liked the Sutton signing. I thought they got a good player for a decent money. Ask him to be corner one has been a lot for him. And so you have that matchup. And then in the other side of the ball, or actually in the other side of the field,

they had Jerry Jacobs there for a long time. They benched him. They wanted Emmanuel Mosley to be this player. He got injured throughout the season. And so now their corner two has been Kindle Vilder, who was the street free agent. They picked up mid-season. And that's the guy was going to have to be accounting for Pukanakua

or Cooper Cup, whoever the other guy isn't, right? The lines are in a really bad matchup spot with these outside wide receivers. That's the game for you right there, right? If your linebackers can't take away, play action middle of the field when you're in zone, and your corners can't survive against Puka and Coup when you're in man, a staffer's going for 300 and 4, right? There's not much to be done about it. Lines have a good run defense, and, and of course, the season,

they've good run defense numbers. It's been a little bit shakier recently. But generally, they've had a good run defense. Okay, slow down Kyrie Williams, and okay, they've got a good run defense. and okay, they've got a good pass rush, and they're going to be able to get some Aiden Hutchinson pressure, but if you can't take away these receivers, staff are just going to beat you down the yard.

That's your matchup is Aaron Glenn has gotten head coaching interviews the last few years. He was the top-rated coordinator, offense over defense for the NFLPA. He's a great guy, and the players love him. That defense, that lion's defense, has not risen the way the line's offense has. Lions' offense is championship caliber, right?

It's playoff caliber. It's what brought them here. Defense hasn't done the same thing. They're going to survive the Rams. They need that side of the ball. And right now they're in a tough matchup spot where linebackers and corners are liable. they have to get big performances, they have to get creative.

They're going to survive the Rams. Yeah, you made a good point on Monday that this lion's defense, like, it's worth zooming out. And like, this is where we always like to align, you know, film and eye test and data and everything. And like just watching them most weeks, I'm like, they don't got it. Like this defense is going to get carved up by good offenses. But you made a good point that zoom out.

Their 13th in defensive DVOA. It actually is a big step up from where they were in 2020. too. I mean, this defense was a disaster last year, like a bottom five defense in the NFL. And to what, you know, we say often on the show is that elite offense plus mediocre defense equals Super Bowl contender. Like that's really what it's been for the Lions this year. I'm interested in the approach from Aaron Glenn here because he's got that DNA and him that saints like aggressive. This is, this is not a sit back and let the offense dictate. This is, you know, you want to be aggressive. They don't always have the guys to be aggressive. But Stafford splits are really interesting.

this year, So lack. Like, it could be noise. Football, everything is a small sample, but against man coverage, 28th in success rate for starters against the Blitz, 26th in success rate. So like when teams have been aggressive against this Rams offense, they've actually had success. Now, again, this is one year small sample.

When the Rams went to the Super Bowl, these numbers against Stafford, he was top three. I remember, like doing the prep for that year. So not to say this is the secret. formula and this is how you get after them. It is a little bit interesting to me that this version of the Rams offense has been a little bit susceptible there. Now, if you're the Lions, you look at those matchups on paper and it's like, that's scary. Are you really going to, you know, how much man coverage do you have with your guys against their guys? You just look at it. You check

the box, Rams, advantage, advantage, advantage, kind of across the board there. But, you know, it is kind of in the Lions DNA, Aaron Glenn's DNA, I feel like, to come out and be aggressive. And, hey, if you give up some big plays, that's okay. But kind of take it. to the Rams. So that's an aspect of that matchup that I'm interested in as well. Yeah. Lowest quarterback pressure rate since week 11. This is again from next gen stats. Stafford is third lowest in the league, right? The only lower than him were two, which, yep, that's how that offense is built. And then Mack Jones, which doesn't count. So Stafford is basically getting pressured less than any of the quarterback recently. That offensive line, man. That's been like the secret,

right? That's probably been the most surprising. Like we can talk so much about the Rams. I came into the season going, Stafford at this age with the industry. injury history behind that offensive line. Sorry, I'm not picking as much as I'm tempted to pick them to do something. I'm not doing it. But yeah, you're right. That offensive line has just overachieved to a huge degree. It's the most, it's the most understated part of this team's improvement. Both of their guards are straight new. Steve Avile's a rookie. Kevin Dodson, they traded for peanuts from the Steelers, right, in August, right? This was like a training camp. We'll probably get him at the 53 anyway. They've been starting for them. They've both been excellent. Rob Haven seems to be able to

stay healthy, right tackle. He's been there for a long time. And then left tackle, which has going to rotate indoors become a Larry Jackson, who's a player that we saw at left tackle at various times in previous seasons and couldn't seem like he really hold his water, the light bulb came on, right? And so they've, uh, what's important is that there are offensive lines in the league and especially offensive lines in this system that are punching above their weight. And, and like the dolphins are an example and the Niners are an example. Where like when you watch them overall, like, these lines are playing pretty good. But then you look at numbers and you look at like clear, just pure dropback situations. And those lines are

are liable, right? Anybody who's had a Brock Purdy conversation with Niners fans knows that they say like, oh, like, you know, you have to bring up the fact that it's a below average offensive line. And it doesn't look like a below average offensive line because Kyle has a lot to protect it. And the scheme does a lot to protect it. It's only when they get stuck in third and eight that you shows up and they can lose in pass protection.

This Rams offensive line is not in that category where all the scheme protects them or whatever. No, they're constantly just five in the concept. All the time, they're just like, yep, shotgun, five out. We're just going to leave our five here, protect, we're going to be fine. And, and our successful snap after snap after snap, after snap, right? This is, this is not a, oh, you know, the good office coach. Obviously, he's helping the line a little bit. That's all good office coaches do, but it's not

that sort of a thing. Like, this line is legit good. So the, the Lions defense, right? Okay, 13th and DVOA film test, you know, you're watching against the top teams they struggle, kind of what's the give, what's the take here? This is a defense that needs their stars to dominate on key plays, right? They're going to be a bend, but don't break, give three instead of seven, get a key turnover, and it has to be your, your Brian Branch who does it for you, John's Garner Johnson who does it for you. In this case, particularly it's Aiden Hutchinson. Hutch got to win, right?

I mean, Hutch is unbelievably prolific this season. And take on a huge volume and generating a huge number of pressures. Even at the high volume is still a top 10 in pressure. I think he's like top 15 in pressure, right? He's been a great outside edge rusher. He's been an edge one. Huge jump for Hutchinson. I was doubtful after year one.

I remember watching him in year two being like, all right, he looks like, he's coming. He's taking a big leap and so he has. Win the game, dude. you're the star's your top five pick you're the star rusher win it right i mean like that cowboy's game which like he should have won and and um they didn't win that game obviously he's gone up against a backup tackle but it's like three sacks right that's the sort of performance you need from a star rusher and a playoff like environment go go go stop two drives for us get a sack get a pressure both those are going to stop drives and then we'll handle the rest of it hudgeonton is

the player you circle on the line's defense and you say we got problems with all 11 but if you win your one-on-ones we can erase a lot of that yeah they they can play with some variants they they can take some risks and like you said, try to force turnovers, negative plays, kill some drives, knowing that they're going to give up some place on defense. There's no doubt about it.

Let's save the picks. We'll do our locks at the end. And then whatever games we don't pick, we'll just go on the record about, you know, what side we would take if necessary. All right. My headliner,

I was debating between a couple here. Let's go to Kansas City on Saturday night. Because I feel like this could be a bit of a narrative shaper depending on the, outcome here. First of all, we got to start with the weather here, Benny Souls. I mean, I don't know, when I wrote my- Crispy. When I wrote my column last night, it looked like minus four with a real feel. I love a real feel. You like a real feel? Sure, but they also, I feel like they can fool you at times. It can be tricky. Wow. Kolek calling out the real feel saying nonsense.

Not what it feels like. I was raised by a grandma and a mother who have a distinct passion for meteorology. My mom looks at multiple weather apps before. Like, you know, you got to have a few on the phone and kind of get like a rolling average. Yeah, absolutely. My mom likes to just, when she's just hanging out, she'll just look at the weather where all her kids live and then she'll text us that information in case we don't have it. In case we, yeah. So my mom said, you know, she texted me earlier this week. Can I sign up for that? Yeah, she texted me earlier this week. Said, Ben, a lot of snow coming Friday and a Saturday. I was like, yep, thanks. I'm ready to go. Appreciate it, mom. All right. We're getting, but the moment this pot ends, the snow starts. Apparently we're getting like 10 inches

Really? Okay. So there you go. Starting at 10 o'clock. Kansas City, according to one weather app. I guess I should reference the weather app. Now, this is Accuweather. We'll give a shout out to State College, Pennsylvania, where I spent four years. Minus 4 degrees with a real feel of minus 24. That is not like, sometimes we overrate.

Like, oh, you know, it's going to be like 28 is 28. Minus 4? Oh, my goodness. This is going to be freezing in Kansas. City on Saturday night. You've got the Dolphins going there as now four and a half point underdogs in this game. The Chiefs, I've been fading their offense all season long. I'm still doing that, but my goodness, this Dolphins defense is so banged up. We know about the edge situation, no Chubb, no Jalen Phillips, no Andrew Van Ginkle. You've got Javon Holland is questionable for this

game. Xavier Howard is out for this game. It is just like a skeleton crew on this Dolphins defense. actually think the other side of the ball might be where this game is, is really decided. You know, you think of the dolphins and you say, a warm weather team who are playing in the cold, this chief's defense has been good. But the dolphins have a very distinct advantage here. So like, their run game has been very good for most of the season. I think they're top five in DVOA rushing the football. This chief's defense has been outstanding against the past, but 27th against the run.

So even though we're thinking of the dolphins as this warm weather, built on speed type team. Like, in some ways, they're kind of built for a little bit, built for a cold weather game if they can get that run game going and run the football. In that game against the Chiefs earlier this season, they averaged over five yards per carry. They didn't get to the run game a ton in that game. I think they had 21 carries, something like that.

But when they did, they were pretty successful in that game. So, you know, if the dolphins come out and they get blown out, like the fraud label is going to be pretty apt. I mean, they're one in five with a minus 91 point differential against playoff teams this season. Only the giants and the commanders have a worst point differential against other playoff teams this season. Like, that's bad.

I mean, they've had time after time to prove themselves and other than that one Cowboys game, they haven't done it. So if they get blown out here, there's going to be a lot of questions about this team, like going forward with Tua and like, did they just beat up on bad teams all season long? And then the chiefs, listen, it's a little bit of a scary spot. You know, you're not the team.

thought you were going to be coming into the season. The weather's bad. You still are facing an offense, which Rahim Moster and Jalen Waddle are both questionable. I think Mike McDaniel said he's optimistic. They both play. Like, that's still a lot to deal with, you know, for a first round playoff game.

Tyree kill, Jalen Waddle, A. Chan, Moster, Mike McDaniel as a schemer, and this Dolphins offense. So it's a little bit of a tricky spot where you're like, something in my head saying, man, this thing could go sideways Saturday night where we're having a conversation about, why did the Chiefs build it this way?

What's their big move in the offseason? Who are they at and get wide receiver? They wasted a year of Mahomes' prime, all this stuff I've been harping on and yelling about all season long. So that is a fascinating game to me. Yeah, I'm a lot more confident in the Chiefs, beating the Dolphins than I think you are.

I think when you look at that side of the ball, Dolphins' Offense versus Chief's defense, especially looking at last season, the game earlier this season, right? They played in Germany. I thought that, spags against this offense was so cool to see because he's using the pre-stap motion against them and it's allowing him to change pictures and make the passing game difficult and send

blitzes with correct timing get free rushers. I think that his defense is really well suited to disrupting kind of the finely tuned machine, right? Like the fine gears of this luxury watch that is the Dolphins offense. You bring up the running game and that's a good point. Okay, cold weather, you know, run the football. But typically we say run the football because you're running it with physicality. You're becoming the enforcer, right? When we talk about cold weather and why you want to run the ball, when you're playing in cold weather,

you want to be the guy who hits, not the guy who gets hit, right? You want to be the guy who puts your shoulder pad into somebody else's ribbed because, man, it hurts like a son of a gun to get hit. And all together, it hurts like a son of a gun. In this weather, it really, really hurts. So you say run the ball so your offensive line can come off the line. Run the ball so your back can come off the line.

You can put your shoulder pad into some guys. That's not really how the dolphins run it. The problem is the dolphins run it like a luxury vehicle, right? They run it with smaller, players and with faster players. And so I think overall, like whenever the, the, the, Dolphins autopsy comes on this season, right? This week, three weeks from now, or what have you, there's a lot of notes for a lot of parts of the offense, a lot of notes for Tua, and I did a place you on him. The note for McDaniel, when you're just sitting with Mike and like, what did you

bring? What can you do better is I think he got away from the run too often in the second half of the season. Their running numbers are insane. They're great running the football. And I think they could have controlled some of these postseason games that they, well, not postseason, but late season games that decided the postseason picture, they lost some of those games that they could have won if they committed to running the ball. And that's the problem with coaches like Mike and all these offensive gurus, right, task Andy Reid, circa anytime in the 2000s, 10s. Hard to run the football.

It's not as fun. Play calls not as long. Guys aren't going as far downfield. It's not as good of a time. And so I do think that Mike's moved away from the run more than he should have over the course of the last few weeks. but even in this game, if you're running the ball with the attempt of, all right, let's salt this thing away, right? Let's control the clock and let's run it in this cold weather. I like the chiefs over the dolphins for that because I like Pacheco in that line in a cold weather environment a lot more than I could.

Devon A. Shane and the dolphins line just in terms of the physical nature of running the football in this sort of a weather. So I'm not sure the dolphins have a good mode on their offense to control this game if the weather's as, you know, terrifying, as painful. as it sounds like it's going to be. There you go. All right. We've got Chiefs, Dolphin. We hit on Lions, Rams. Let's take a break.

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like the money line and the spread, plus all sorts of prop bets. This week coming up, We're talking about more bets later in the show. I do like the Chiefs minus four and a half against the dolphins. I like the Bucks plus three against the Eagles. And I like the Steelers plus 10 against the bills. Prop bet-wise, Naji Harris over 60 and a half rushing yards with the Steelers,

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21 plus and present in select states, minimum three-leg parley required. Refund issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets, which expires seven days after receipt. Max refund $5 unless otherwise specified. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fandul.com. All right. We are back on extra point taking next category, Ben. Monday morning storyline.

What are we talking about around the NFL Monday morning? Right. I can't shake the feeling that the Steelers are going to beat the bills. Woo! Beat the bills. He didn't say cover. He didn't say give him a game. He said, beat the bills.

I love it. Right. Now, it's a lot more likely that, right, they cover or they, you know, give him a game, but they don't actually get the hay in the barn, as it were. Talks about weather for Chiefs Dolphins. That's in Kansas City. In Buffalo, and upstate New Yorkers will know, just as by West Michiganers will know, Lake Effect Snow, baby.

Western New York, they like, they don't like the upstate New York, right? the western New York. I just meant for the people who receive the lake effects now. I apologize. I was just general collective group. Lake effects, no, is real thing. Current weather forecast temperature of 26 degrees. There's a 25 mile per hour winds that could gust up to 50.

And we're looking like potentially snow being dumped on before the game during the game. That's a little bit of a moving target. But there could be multiple inches of snow coming down for Bill's Steelers. That creates an environment for slot ball that I think very, very, much favors the Steelers. I will also say there was a wonderful piece. I couldn't find it.

I feel poorly. I forget who wrote it, but it was about how Stefan Diggs has to ask Josh Allen to throw the ball a little bit softer in the cold weather because it really hurts his hands to catch it. Josh Allen, like in theory,

good cold weather quarterback because he has the velocity to cut through the wind, but also sometimes bad weather quarterback because it's hard for receivers to deal with the guy. He will rip your hand off of literally off of your arm. You know, Mason Rudolph

with this little cupcake arm, not going to be a problem. The ball's going to move with the wind, though. And so the bills have some, again, some good tools that are necessary

to play in weather like this, but they're not perfectly built for it. I think the Steelers are going to give the ball to Naji 24. I think this game is going to be short. I think it's going to be fast.

It's going to be a cloud of dirt. I think it's going to be turnovers and punts and field position. The Steelers actually, they just brought up a punter from their practice squad. They might be having a punting

change. Presley Harvey might be injured. Like, that's going to be very meaningful for this game. Altogether, though, I think that the Steelers can either beat the bills or, right, get razor-close, right? Really give the bills a bit of a heart attack here with this one, make them realize, like, okay, we got to the postseason, we won this two-season, one under vision, but we're still not far from a perfect team.

Accordingly, like, if the bills lose, the story is going to be about the bills. But in general, I'll say the story for the Steelers is going to be about the quarterback situation, and that's going to be the Monday morning headline. is going to be, all right. We now, we won these games with Mason Rudolph. We got to play with Mason Rudolph. Heck, we almost slash did beat the bills with Mason Rudolph. Is Mason Reed Rudolph quarterback of the future for the Pittsburgh Steelers?

Who have, by the way, very clearly benched Kenny Pickett. Like, that's happened. Like, Pickett could play. And they're not playing him. You can't go overstated. I've seen Steelers fans who were like, because there was that report last week that was like, Pickett's their quarterback for 2024 and they're going to move forward with him. he's not playing in a postseason game.

I don't know. The team's telling you. We're in 2024 and he is literally not playing. Yeah. He is a healthy quarterback in the postseason and they're playing the third stringer. They are telling you how they feel about Kenny Pickett. The headline's going to be his Mason Rudolph the guy.

The answer is no. I think that they've seen enough of Mason Rudolph over the course of his career. And even this season, like he had his big moments. But a lot of it's like George Pickens's Catch and Run. Right. That is his nine ball stuff. Just vertical balls, you know, go make me right.

I think the 2024 quarterback for the Steelers is emphatically not on the roster. But I do think they're going to make this game really interesting. And I think that's going to bring some Tom McDermott questions and Bill's coaching future questions to the table. I think it's going to bring some Steelers quarterback questions as well. And I'm looking forward to all of the panic that comes out of that game for both fan bases. Yeah, the bills I picked in our Ringer staff predictions.

I just stuck with the bills and said the bills are, I'm picking them to win the Super Bowl. The bills are either winning the Super Bowl or they're losing the skate, I think. Like, they're going to lose in a very stupid way where you can't believe it and you say, why did I ever trust this team or they're just going to keep going here. So from a Steelers perspective, I mean, Mike Tomlin just like dreams of this, right? Going on the road, snow game, 10 point underdog, third straight quarterback. I mean, this is why he coaches. Like, this is the exact type situation he loves to be in.

So I've got the bills winning the game. I do like the Steelers, you know, to keep it relatively competitive. Just when you look at the matchup, I mean, the bills have issues. that cornerback. What do the Steelers like to do? Just take advantage of those wide receivers a few times a game. And that's the offense. The Steelers have really effectively and consistently run the football pretty well here,

especially the second half of the season. So I think they can do that in this environment. Other side of the ball is a little tricky. No T.J. Watt in this game, we all know what their splits have been with and without T.J. Watt over the years. I mean, it's been a different defense. They do get make a Fitzpatrick back, though, or at least it's looking like. So that's a huge, huge deal.

I mean, we're literally one of the best players in football. Yeah. Yeah. I also, I know their, their T.J. Watt thing as well, but they have at outside linebacker that I like getting a curb. That's true. They've got some good players there. Safety for them without Minka.

Holy Moses, dude. They desperately need Minka back and they're getting them back. Thank goodness. So, listen, it's very hard to predict any Bill's game. It's very hard to predict any Steelers game. The bills are so high variance. And the Steelers just have. the ability to drag a team into the mud where you look up with four minutes left in the fourth quarter

and go, how is this a three-point game? They've been out gained by 275 yards. What is happening here? I fully expect that's also the time slot. When I'm picking these games, I'm like picturing myself and like the time, like Sunday at one, you know, it's kind of like something weird. Didn't the bills play the Dolphins that won on Sunday last year? I believe that was the one o'clock game against Skyler Thompson on. Oh, yeah. That was definitely a son. was out game. I remember that for sure. There was sunlight outside. And it was just like, what is happening here? Are they actually going to lose to Skyler Thompson? And they almost did there. So I just, I look at Bill's offensive

numbers and like, all right, the only thing that's been good, like, the only thing that's improved under Joe Brady is less turnovers, which is noise. I look at the Steelers defense and the way that they generate turnovers. I look at that Bill's defense, which, okay, they've been playing so good down the stretch, but still structurally not the best defense against the run. I look at the Steelers under center, heavy personnel. Naji's a big guy. That's such a, when that Phil's defense, even when it was good, like in 2022 and 2021, when it was bad, it was because they have small players and they would go up against a big offense and they would stay a nickel and they would just get big boyed. And I tell you, the Steelers just don't take Darinall Washington

off the field and they don't take, they take Najee off the field. But they hand the ball to Najee, right? They are a big man offense. I think this is going to, this is going to be six three Steelers halfway through the third quarter and the collective football internet is going to be losing its mind, dude. I'm very excited. All right. From my Monday morning storyline, I'm going away from these games. My Monday morning storyline, Pete Carroll still wants to coach. This was, I mean, he gave a great press conference after, you know, after it was announced that, you know, maybe he might move upstairs.

It was nothing definitive there. He made it very clear, So, like, with a line in there, I competed pretty hard to be the coach just so, you know. He dropped the little breadcrum. He didn't want to make the press conference about what he... Which, by the way, the best way to say it. I competed. compete, Pete!

Yeah. As someone who spent two years and those, you have to learn. I went through a process, I had to learn the Pete Carroll language, the Pete Carroll vocabulary, how he speaks is different than any other person I've ever been around. One funny thing was when he would say a player had like a legit hamstring, like that guy's might be dead. Like that person might. Yeah.

He's never going to play football again, but he might not even be alive. He has a legit hamstring means he legitimately doesn't have one. He just got one hamstring left. That's it. That's right. So Pete Curl is. 72 years old. He said it during that. He still has the energy.

He still wants to coach. I'm curious whether there will be a spot for him. But I think he's going to make it very clear through his representation, through whoever. I think it could be on one of those Sunday morning shows, maybe a Jay Glazer, whoever, saying, let's like, you know, Pete Carroll kind of slow played this a little bit in his press conference. He didn't want to make it about his future. But let's be honest, this guy is looking to get in the mix, looking to get, be a candidate for all of these head coach openings around the NFL.

Richard Sherman floated the Los Angeles Chargers. You know, Sherman spent, was at that party with Pete Carroll after the announcement, and he floated the Chargers, which I was like, that makes sense. Does that make Shane Waldron with him? You know, get a little Pete and Shane go with Justin Herbert team ready to win, at least a quarterback, ready to win right now. Roster still needs a lot of help. He's got those Los Angeles roots from his time.

in USC, would that make sense? The other teams around the NFL, I was like, I don't know if these other openings really make sense. I mean, Pete Carroll is so good at building a program from the ground up, but again, at his age, I don't know that this is a different spot than when he joined the Seahawks

back in the day. So I think Monday morning he's going to announce pretty loudly, it might come before that, it might come Sunday, that he still wants to be a coach, and we're going to see if any of these teams are interested in giving him what would be his fourth. The best part of Pete about when you talk to Peter,

he loves talking about how he was fired in previous stops. And that has kind of shaped his. Like he loves when a player has been counted out or a UDFA, and that guy rises to the top. That's like what he loves out of life. So he's been fired a third time. It's the very rare Wikipedia page to go from head coach to head coach to head coach if he gets a fourth job with no coordinator in between.

usually see at least one coordinator and your defensive assistant. That speaks to Pete. You're an owner. Are you dialing up Pete? Do you like him as a candidate? This is, like, I'm on the fence. I would, if I were the charges,

I would at least be thinking about it. I mean, just talk about from just a vibe, like a culture vibes perspective, like it would be totally different with him. But I mean, listen, there are, he hasn't been able to figure out the defense. Like we have to call it what it is. I mean, he's had five or six years here

where he's tried different things defensively. coordinators, schemes, players, and the defense has not been good. Offensively, he's not shaping the offense, but to his credit, like, their offenses have generally overachieved throughout his entire tenure there. From a culture perspective, you love it, from an in-game management, you don't love it. So, like, there are a lot of things to weigh. So I don't have a definitive answer for you. You, I feel like, would be a, heck yeah, I'm calling Pete Carroll, even at this age.

Yeah. Okay. I think Pete can shape an organization the way that like Bobby's slowic can't. You know what I'm saying? The logical. Lois like catching one in a big spot. Right. Which shout up Bobby.

But in general, the logic is like, all right, you need to find a young offensive guy. Because if you find a young offensive guy, then your offense and your play calling your quarterback will be set forever. And you run the shenan system. And then you fill in the gaps. And if a coach doesn't give you that, then it's like, you know, he's a tier two guy. And like, I generally understand the logic. of that. Pete's been an NFL head coach for 15 years, right? He's been a head coach since the 90s. He can get into your organization and very quickly figure out what the other, what the past guys

have been doing, what the current beliefs are, what the current habits are, the current practice are that are not good, they're not healthy for the organization. He can fix that. He is a floor razor, man. If you're the charges with the commanders where you've had a lot of ineptitude over time and you just, you need to just write the ship, you need to get the organization pointed the correct way. like Washington with like new ownership right like I would like can I get Pete in the building and even if I'm if I'm maxing out at wildcard games I don't even think you are but if you are maxing out at wildcard games at least Pete is is going to teach my organization how to run themselves right at least we're going to we're going to get direction from a helmsman here

and then we can kind of reassess after a couple of years see how many how much gas Pete has left in the tank 72 is 72 man you'd be as youthful as you want eventually like your your eyes go your ears go you get old man and so I would I would absolutely be bringing Pete in especially if I I felt like I was a salad dwelling team that needed to grow up. That's Pete 101 right there. My wife has pointed out that Pete Carroll has not changed since we lived in Seattle in 2015 and 2016. He looks and acts like the exact same guy. And I think the implication there was maybe I, you know, have aged a little more.

You're a lot more jacked than you were back then. I agree. I've aged a little bit more than Pete since this. No, focus on the jack. The jacks is what's for it. All right. It's contest time. Denny.

Now I got a fine. But no, now I've got to find the talking head thing of you and ESPN where you had hair back in Seattle. My favorite photo. Okay. You can go ahead and do that. We got a contest here. We are going into the playoffs. For those of you who are just joining us, where have you been all season long?

Here's what we do. We each pick a prop of the week that has to be minus 130. We're better. That's worth one point. We each pick a long shot of the week. That's got to be plus 150 or higher. That's worth three points. and then we each come to the table with three blocks of the week.

These are picks against the spread. Those are each worth one point for a total of seven points. Now, so I think for the playoffs, we kind of talked around this a little bit. I think there should just be seven points available every week. Otherwise, it's like, you know, otherwise it's not for. So we stick with seven points available. This week, it's easy. Next week it's easy.

I think for championship weekend and Super Bowl, like you still have your long shot, you still pick the games, but we still have it add up to seven. So if you want to pick a total or a prop, anything that's, you know, anything that's what, minus 130 or better and just so it adds up to seven points.

Does that make sense for you? I think that makes sense. Extra point taken, seven points, implied seven points because of touchdowns. I think that's good. I think, yeah, I think the,

right, get a couple more long shots in there is where you're strong, get a couple more, I guess I can't get any more locks in there because they're going to run out of games. So I'm going to have to figure out to fix these props, man.

Yeah, that makes sense to me. All right, there you go. We'll do it. Do you have the spreadsheet up from our friend, Luke, with where we are here on the contest, going in. Yes. The wild card weekend. What do we got?

Yeah. Yeah, the regular season trophy belongs to me. There's no regular season trophy. We knew all along. I got, I got the first round by. I got the one seed. All right. I'm sitting this week.

No, yeah. I had 50, 58, you had 54. I will say when Luke made this tracker, he only made 18 weeks. I just am looking at the bottom of the spreadsheet here. That's why it feels like there should be a trophy. Listen, I trust Luke that he will adjust that now that we go to the playoffs. Week 18, I had five points. You had three points.

Josh Allen going over on the rushing yards, the lines covering against the Vikings, and then the Chiefs covering plus three and a half on the road against the Chargers. Those were your wins. That Chiefs game, man, got a nice, got a nice fumble rusky, 95 yards. Chargers scored like five field goals. That was a good win, man. That was a fun one. For me, I had the Texans on the road against the Colts covering.

I had the Raiders covering against the Broncos. And then my money line was the Titans to upset the Jaguars. The final Vrabble, the last frabling. I got it in there. Just as the door closed. That gave me three points, giving me five on the week. I had James Cox to go over receiving ours, which lost. I had the Patriots to cover which lost.

You had the Ravens. Oh, they're driving to go score a potential touchdown. I still feel good about that. Yeah, I'm in on that. Devastating. And then you got C.J. Strouded just the week after I did. You had him there go $2.75. He landed like $2.60 something.

They couldn't get the ball back. That's all we got to do. They couldn't get the ball back there against the Colts. Yeah, that hurt. Six minutes left, yeah. I think the complaints of the Texans early down runs are far overstated, except for those weeks in which I'm betting on C.J. Stroud passing yards, in which case, yeah, they should throw up more in first and 10.

So, yeah, that 58 to 54 is the total over the course of the week. Lox, I'm at 57%, you are at 37%. We are collectively at 47%. With me hitting a long shot and you not hitting a long shot now, which is like the first time that's happened in years, I'm at 39% on long shots where you're at 44%. So I'm catching up to you there. I'm at 33% on props.

As embarrassing of a thing as I've done on the public airways in years, and you are at 56%. Shout out to listener Chris, who I met yesterday, Ben, he said, he said, love extra point taken. you guys have made me a lot of money. This you're like, oh, what? Are you sure you're talking? Are you talking to the right guy here?

And he said, no, no. He said, once you guys announced that, like, did the breakdown and said, like, Solac is doing much better on the against the spread picks and Shields doing much better on the long shots. And the props, I just started, like, taking bends against the spread. And I'm like, oh, awesome. Good job. Good job by you, Chris. Absolutely.

The main thing for us here is transparency. All right. We don't promise to be good. We promise to be very clear about how we're doing. And then you can go from there. There you go. All right. Let's get to it.

The prop of the week. This is worth one point. What do you got to all that? I wonder if we have the same one. I kind of have it. I wonder if we have the same one for our prop of the week here because I had one that I like and I feel like you might kind of like it too. Well, we're about to find out because I accidentally closed my.

Okay, I'll start. You find yours. Go ahead, please. I'll start. I'm going Patrick Mahomes over. 28.5 rushing yards. We're not taking Patrick Mahomes throwing the football.

We're taking Patrick Mahomes running the football. He's gone over that number, 28 and a half, in seven of 14 playoff games. In the playoffs, Patrick Mahomes goes into, I have to make a play mode.

We see this year in and year out. And this year, he was doing that a lot in the regular season, to be quite honest, because we know he doesn't trust these wide receivers. In the regular season,

Patrick Mahomes averaged 24.3 rushing yards per game. that was a career high. Last week, I took Josh Allen rushing yards against this Dolphins defense. Obviously, Allen's used more in the designed run game, the option running game, but I still think he was picking up a lot of those on scrambles. There's going to be openings against this Dolphins defense. It's going to be freezing.

You're not going to want to throw the ball a lot. I think Mahomes just needs, what, three, four scrambles in this game, pick up a couple first downs, and he can get over 28.5. So there you go. That is my prop of the week. Patrick Mahomes over 28 and a half rushing yard. So I tell you, we're not on, we're not on the same one because I, I didn't go for that game.

I think that game is just a really challenging game to handicap, given, or handicap at the prop market specifically, given the nature of the weather. But in a, uh, uh, Patrick Mahomes rushing over in a postseason game is never a bad bet, not even once has that been a bad bet, not in history. Uh, the little scoots, the little run around, I think it'll be good. I'll be curious how many times they'd drop. that's the thing is he might need to get those on fewer dropbacks than usual because you don't know how much they're going to be doing it. I think again, it's going to be a shorter game too because of the

because of the run script. And so I like it. I am going and yeah, I'm glad I opened this because I did change this last night. I wasn't sure if I did or not. I'm going with Najee Harris over 16 and a half rushing yards. I'm committing to the Steelers run game script that against the bills. I think it makes sense for them to keep Josh Yon on the other side of the field. I think it makes sense for them in the weather. I think it makes sense against the defense. The only thing that doesn't make sense. the reason why this number is a little bit low is the game script. It's the expectation that the Steelers are down by multiple scores fast enough that they have to move away from the Russian game. But one of the things that you've seen from the Steelers this year is that they actually,

they don't do that until pretty late. They don't go into like full pass happy. Okay, we need to get points until they're down like the fourth quarter. They'll come out in the second half down multiple scores and still be running the ball. I think they understand that's where their bread is buttered. Since the offensive coaching staff change, Matt Canada out, Mike Sullivan becoming the new offensive play caller. You've seen Najee's run volume go up a little bit, and Jalen Warren's receiving volume kind of catch a little bit more. They were a little bit more of an even time share in terms of handoffs before the Canada

change. Obviously, the last two games for Najee Harris, 27 and 26 carries, respectively, in wins. And so they had the script for it. They had 19 against the Bengals the week previous. He's been their primary, their ball carry, and it makes sense for this, this game environment. So his rush attempts were at 15 and a half. and his total yards is at 16.5.

I think he's got a better chance to rip off some explosives than people realize. Naji gets a bad rap for his explosives because Warren is objectively more explosive. But Naji still breaks tackles and beats contact the line of scrimmage and creates yards after the run. It's just Warren is just really, really good in that environment. So I think against, again, the smaller Bills group, they've had linebacker injuries. You can see Naji rip off a couple nice ones. Over 60 and a half rushing yards for Naji. I like it for the game script that I project.

But even if I don't get that game script, I still think it's quite possible he gets over this number. Yeah, I like that one. I was actually looking at that one. This is the best Naji Harris has played in his career. I mean, he is playing really well right now, really the second half or so of this year. He's played at a high level, so I do like that one. All right. Long shot of the week.

This is plus 150 or higher. I kept it simple. I'm going to Dallas on when is this game dead? This is Sunday afternoon. Late window. And I'm going, Dak Prescott, 300 plus passing yards. is at plus 168. Dak Prescott at home this season has averaged 309 passing yards per game.

I don't like this Packers defense. I said it over and over again. It's very getable. This is a great matchup for Dak Prescott. This is a Packers defense that made Bryce Young look fantastic. It made Tommy Cutlets look like Michael Vick in that one Monday night game. I mean, I know they played well the last couple of games of the season, but I think we'll get to the picks later. I'm not saying that the Cowboys are going to blow the Packers out,

but I do have a hard time seeing a scenario where Green Bay's defense consistently slows down the Cowboys' offense and the Cowboys' passing game. Cowboys cannot run the ball effectively, so I think Dak Prescott's going to get plenty of opportunities. If this ends up being a game where Jordan Love plays well, well, now all of a sudden you're still going to have to throw the football. So I just feel like there are a lot of scenarios here where Dak Prescott gets plenty of attempts. We know he can make plays downfield. We know C.D. Lamb can get some of those yards after the catch. So I'm just going straight out. Dak Prescott, get me 300 or more passing yards in this game. That's plus 168. That's my long

shot of the week. Yeah. How to get Cowboys exposure against this Joe Barry defense is the, has been a riddle for me this week because if there's anything I can predict well in that game, it's that the Cowboys going to score points. How the Packer score points. And if they score points is the like the interesting conversation. The nice and neat conversation is, Cow was going to move the ball through the air and they're not going to have a problem doing it. C.D. Lambs said it's 7.5 receptions at 100.5 yards. I was looking at the reset.

When you see an over under for a receiver 100 or over, you're like, wow. But still, you're tempted to take the over, right? It's Justin Jefferson and Tyree Kill numbers, right? It's what typically gets posted for them. I wanted to do over seven and a half. That was one of the first things I looked for this week. It's minus 148 right now.

It wouldn't even qualify for our juice, our juice limitations. Eight catches. It's hard to get eight catches in a football game. His projection for nine plus catches is just plus 114, right? He's like, because the thing is like Barry doesn't just let you funnel target to wide receiver one. He lets you do it underneath. It's going to be an unbelievably high volume game for CD Lamb. And the challenge for the Packers is tackling.

Like whenever we talk about postseason football, I say it every single time. Like this is where tackling becomes so, so, so important. Your body's banged up. Everybody's hurt a little bit. You have to be able to tackle. Cowboys were really tough. CD Lamb so hard to tackle in space. and Jire Alexander rolled his ankle this week

and potentially not going to play for this game. So you got all that young secondary out there. You got a slower safety room, Jonathan Owens back there. I mean, in the first quarter of this game, a CD-Lam throw that is within five yards a line of scrimmage will go for 20 yards.

And you're just going to be like, all game, isn't it? And it probably will be for the Packers. I'm fascinated. That game is really, really interesting to me. I'm a lot of, I'm on Packers plus seven and a half from earlier in the week.

And a lot of my numbers tell me, and like something I look at I was like yeah Packers are clear value at plus seven It's such a young team It's so scary I want that game to be closed I want to be within one score

I think it can and will be within one score It's hard to put my back into it on this pod though just because of the youth Youth there for Green Bay All right what do you got What's your long shot of the week Yep We are taking the two alternate unders

In the two disgusting weather games And that's how we're going to get Plus 150 nice and easy Steelers bills, a total, which is currently at 36.5. We're going to take up to 39 and a half, go under that number. Dolphins Chiefs, which is currently at 43.5-Shield, when this opened, it was like 47.5. This number has fallen like more than a field goal. Currently at 43 and a half, we're to take that to 45 and a half.

So Steelers under 39.5, Dolphins chiefs under 45 and a half. When you parlay those together, you get to plus 156. I think that the chiefs and dolphins, there's a lot of, defensive advantages in those matchups schematically already. Like I said, I like Spags against Tua. I like the Dolphins and that generally very improved defense, even with their injuries, against the Chiefs' offense that's just struggled to matriculate the football. Add in the weather and you like it a lot. Steelers bills, I think that you generally like the ability for that to be a faster game, a game that then involves a lot of ground and pound for the Steelers, shorten that

game and then especially so because of the weather. I think the weather and the gust is going to limit the potential for big throws down the field, which is a big, part of Josh Allen's game. Certainly's been a part of Mason Rudolph's game. He's still leaving the liability for the catch and run, right? You still live in a liability for the Nashi Harris big run and the George Bacon's big run. And like all that is still possible. I think that one's a little bit dice here, especially 39 and a half. It's a low, low, low, low number. But if you get both those together, you get plus 156, I like the underst in both of those games on their own. And we don't really do totals in this. So that's how I get my totals exposure,

plus 156 from our long shot. Yeah, the weather is always, like when you said the, you know, the gus, it's like what gust would actually affect the Josh Allen? throw. I mean, it's a good, it's a good experiment with his, with his arm. If 50 miles per hour doesn't, I don't know what it does, man. I mean, that's a wind tunnel right there. Yeah, the weather conversation is always so interesting. I mean, I remember covering that Eagles Lions game back in the day with Chip Kelly where it was like, no, no, if it's snowy, you can actually pass, pass more because the receivers know where they're going and it's hard for the corners to change direction. Like, I think it was Kerry Williams, the Eagles cornerback told Chip Kelly that on the

sideline, they start throwing the football a little bit, makes them plays. I think it generally slows down the pass rush. You'll hear from offensive linemen, you know, retired offensive linemen and pass rushers that the snow, uh, the wetness is definitely not good, uh, for past rushers. So maybe you give a little bit of an edge to the offensive line there, but it's always so hard to figure out exactly how those things are going to affect the games. All right. Take one more break. We'll come back. Nonsense predictions. And then our locks of the week, which I still don't know what three games I'm picking. So I will pick. them for the moment.

All right, we are back on extra point taken. So, like, what's a weird thing that is going to happen this weekend? What do you got? Yeah. You remember before the Steelers' Eagles Monday night football game where, I'm not serious, excuse me, Seahawks' Eagles Monday Night Football game, where, like, Dave opened that day and they were just like, yeah, Matt Patricia's the defensive coach now.

Like, remember how we got like just nice, great sourcing? No, we got an Eagles Monday Night football game here against the Buccaneers. And it's been sketchy for the Eagles down. down the stretch, lost five of the last six. It's been real ugly. Teams falling apart. AJ Brown not giving comments, then making comments to clarify why he's not making comments.

And Jalen Hertz saying he's appreciative. The A.J. Brown made the comments to clarify why he's not making the comments. And then AJ Brown hasn't practiced with a knee injury. And Jaylon Hertz, like, yeah, I haven't thrown the football yet this week because I hit busted my finger up against the Giants. This is a disarray. We got, you know, leaks about who promoted Patricia and why they promote a

Patricia. We've got, you know, all, you know, us on Philly Special, other Eagles people have been like how serious is Surrani's job security. We are getting at some point on Monday, right? It's going to be five playoff games done, right? You know, coming into this Eagles bucks game, we are going to get some report in the lead-up, right? Is ESPN? Somebody's going to come out with.

Eagles head coach Nick Siriani is not coaching for his job against the Tampa Buccaneers. However, in the event of a loss, there will be an evaluation process, which is what coaching for your job means, basically. there would be an evaluation process that may lead a decision. Sources are saying this feels like that Doug Peterson are saying Harry Roseman has more influence on the coach staff

just the same stuff we've always heard about the team but just all coales the fact that the Eagles with that island game all but guarantees that something is going to come out beforehand about the state of the team

and the stakes of this Buccaneers lost there is no way to minimize this game for Philadelphia. You walked into the season as the NFC champions. You had one point you were the one lost team you were in control of your destiny

and you have imploded in dramatic fashion. And like the numbers for teams that have a record like this, but still a poor point differential, they are not good in the postseason. They're typically one and done. Galen Hertz is going up against Todd Bowles, a coordinator up against Jimmy as a career 36% success rate shield. Like there's a chance the Eagles don't just lose this game.

They lose it ugly. And I think you're going to see it in the preamble to this game reporting to that end of like, oh, well, if the Eagles lose this, like there might be changes. I don't know if they'll be true or not. but the Eagles never avoid drama in circumstances like this. And so nonsense prediction, I'm expecting drama before that game. Yeah, I always say it's stupid for an organization to make a decision on a coach based on the outcome of just one game. However, this would be like the continuation of like a seven, eight week complete disaster meltdown, collapse,

the likes of which we've almost never seen really in the NFL. So, yeah, I mean, it's hard to really predict. Like everything is in play. If you go to Tampa as favorites and you lose that game in ugly fashion, which you're saying, come on, that's not going to, well, they just like, they were down 24-0 to the Tarad Taylor Giants. They got, they allowed four straight touchdowns to the Kyler Murray Cardinals. Like, they can't get lined up on defense. Forget about playing well or anything like that, like a little motion and all of a sudden, this defense is completely confused, a little 13 personnel and they don't know who's supposed to be in what gap and they're still figuring it out as the ball is snapped. So, yeah, all those things are in play.

so much mystery. We're recording this on Friday morning. And so like you said, we don't know about J.L. Harts's status. We don't know about A.J. Brown status. Baker Mayfield did not practice on Thursday. We think he's going to play, but he's got rib and ankle injury. So this is just a hard game. Let's get a little Kyle Trask, Marcus Mario. Oh my gosh. On Monday night, Troy Aikman would love out. Troy Aikman, to hear what he would say about that would be pretty fun about getting stuck calling Kyle Trask versus Marcus Mariotta. So okay, I like that one. That's a good one. I've got, all right, I'm going to go with, go with this one. I think Jared Goff at some point will get caught saying something to like a teammate or a

coach on the sideline about Sean McVeck. I mean, if you're Jared Gough, how could you not be looking at this matchup and just being like, screw that guy, you know? Like even when I was playing well, all of the stories were about how McVeigh was on. I was his little puppet and he was telling me what to do until 15 in the headset. And then, oh, he just told me, throw the ball here. And it's so easy. I just threw the ball there. Anyone could have done it. Yeah, even though we're going to the Super Bowl. And then things go south. And McVeigh's already courting Stafford. And they're attaching a first round pick to your name, to your contract to get rid of you. And now look at you. You went to Detroit, a place where nobody could win. And you went there. And you had a monster season for

the Detroit Lions. And you played under a different offensive coordinator with different surroundings, pieces and guess what? You played really well and now you're hosting a playoff game. So, I don't know. Like, you can just read between the lines. I think Jared golf is a, like, he seems like a high character guy where he's not going to want to really say anything, but you can read between the lines

about how he felt about how that ended in Los Angeles and it's understandable. And I think there'll be some kind, I don't know what the controversy will be. There'll be something like, I was going to say he's they don't shake hands, but I don't know. I feel like he'll shake his hand. But there'll be something or maybe something in the locker room.

Where Campbell will say like, you know, we knew how much they win. We knew how much this one meant to Jared or something. Everybody starts going nuts and he shows more emotion than he does. There will be a Jared Gough moment if the Lions win this football game on Sunday night that I'm looking forward to. I strongly agree. I think that I strongly agree. I think what I'm hoping for is a little like Jared Gough, like one of those scrambles where you're like, don't do this, buddy. Like, why are you running?

But he is, right? And like it's first and ten. he gets knocked out of a sideline, like second and six. It's not even like a significant pickup, but he kind of like when he gets up on the Ram's sideline, like Sean's right there. And it's kind of just like a little like awkward like oh tap tap, like oh hello, whatever, you know, something like that. And like the cameras catch it.

You see Jared Goff like, you know, hustling back, whatever. I remember he's like, oh, okay, cool. And then the Lions win. And then everybody's saying hi at the end of the game. I go, good job, congratulations, whatever. And golf saying hi to all of his Rams friends. And then he sees McVeigh and they do the same thing like, oh, hello, you. What's up?

Yeah, you've been good. Okay, great. and it's kind of zoom by and then people are playing those two clips over and over again for the next three days just like awkward

hellos. That's the most juice Jared Gough can bring, right? I think that's maximum for him in terms of drama. He's not going to get anybody's face. But I think, right,

like the Stafford returned to Detroit is such a huge narrative of this game. I wrote about it, like it's a big deal. But golf against McVeigh, I'll never, like, when I was out there for training camp

and I was talking to Ben Johnson, their OC about the offense and how they kind of put together because they've cribbed so much McVeigh stuff. I'll never forget, he was the most, like, eye-popping line was, he said, um, all Jared knew when he was growing up in the league is in McVeigh offense. And then he said, I'm reading from my piece. So I think it's been a little eye-opening to him to find out there isn't necessarily a right

way or wrong way. It's just what McVeigh believe it. And I was like, oh, that's a little spicy. And it was surprising to him to learn there's other way to do things when he came here to Detroit. Like, I have a little lull dig at the, Sean. I love it. Um, that, that tension is very much there for Jared.

Absolutely. And that's something that you always hit where like, I think people are always like, oh, you know, it was so tough for Sean to deal with Jared. That sucks for Jared to hear, especially with him being as successful as he is. So yeah, I think, like, I'm not picking this game from my locks. I do think Detroit wins it. I think Detroit's, and a great spot motivation-wise. I think they're in a great spot.

They're a young, keep in a hungry team, but they have better in leaders who have been in the postseason before and they know how to do it. I think they're in a great spot because they can win games in multiple ways on offense. I really, I think they're going to have, so many people are picking the Rams. This feels to me like a lion spot for sure. I'm excited to see it. Yeah, let's just go over that. Now, I'm not picking this game either.

I mean, this was the hardest game. I started the week. I was Rams plus three, felt good about it. The week went on and I switched official pick on the ringer.com, lions minus three. I think this is a pretty evenly matched game. And I think the thing I don't want to say no one talks about, because I hate when people say no one talks about because there's like 7,000 podcasts. and websites and columns and Twitter.

Someone has talked about this. There's just this one podcast and dual thread. Someone has talked about this. I haven't talked about it on this podcast. The Rams special teams is so, so, so, so, so historically bad. Like, not only the worst special teams DVOA

in the NFL this year. If you look at DVO, like, this is an all-time bad special teams unit. And so I'm looking at that in a tight spot where they don't really have a great kicking situation where the Lions have my guy, Dave Fifth, coordinating their special teams, and they're doing creative stuff. I was out of day fifth press conference last week. He's still doing day fifth stuff, man.

He's the bomb. So you got the lines with an edge there. And then the other thing, which we don't talk about, which I want to bring up here, in-game decision making. This is a blind spot where everyone on that Shanahan McVeck. Like, this is when it shows up. It doesn't show up during the season because they're blowing teams out and they're awesome at most aspects of their job. But in a big spot in terms of should I kick it? Could I go on fourth? down. How do I manage the clock? Timeouts. McVey, that's been a blind spot for Sean McVey. He is not good

at that. And Dan Campbell, listen, you can point to the emotional two-point conversion stuff against the Cowboys. I get that. Overall, Campbell's game in-game management, I like a lot. He's aggressive. He doesn't coach scared. And I think in an offensive game like this,

that's going to give the Lions an edge. I'm not telling you they're always going to get it, but he's going to make the decision that he feels like is aggressive and gives his offensive chance. McVe I think might coach a little bit scared in this game in those spots. So for those two reasons, I switch to the Lions. I've got Lions minus three in this football game. Yeah. This is the Goat, fake punt team against the team they can't cover a regular punt. Yeah. It's going to play a factor. Yeah. The special team's note is such a good one, an important one, because teams, like, teams gets

misunderstood overall, like, okay, like who plays on it, what does it mean, whatever? Like, teams is typically where your young players go to develop, right? You keep them on the roster and they're learning and practice, but you're getting them reps on teams. Well, with the Rams, like, all their young players just play on offense and defense. They don't got time for teams, man. We need all y'all starting. And so they, it's like, that's what, you watch how this team has come together

successfully on offense and defense with so many late drafted rookies, so many young players are like, how did they pull this off? And then you see the state of their special teams, like, oh, that's the price of doing business. And it brings kind of the team full circles. Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised at special teams has an impactful play in this game. The emotions in this one, man.

Who handles them the best thing between? Sean with the experience, Campbell with the Juice. The head coach who wins this game is going to be the team who he handles his team's emotions the best. To bring up, oh, like the Packers are a young team. The Rams, they have postseason experience, but a lot of young players on this team did not play in that last big postseason run.

So they're also a young team, not a lot of postseason experience. They're going to be on the road in an extremely hostile environment. Like, it's, it's, this is a, this is a, this is a feather than the cap head coaching game for sure. Winner of this game, it's going to be a good head coaching job. All right. Let's get to it. The good stuff, the stuff you've been waiting for. The locks of the week.

I've got the band dual page in front of me. Let's make sure none of these lines have changed. We'll get the most updated lines here. These are just picks against the spread. Each worth one point. So, like, now I got to do a little game theory here because I really shouldn't pick the same games as you. I've got ground to make up. So that does nothing for me.

So I mean, we'll still go back and forth one v1, but I probably should stay away, even if I like a game, if you're picking the same side. All right, what do you got? What's your first one? My first game is Chiefs minus four and a half,

which I know you lean, it sounded like you leaned like potentially the dolphins covering on this. You thought this was going to be close. This was three and a half earlier in the week. It's moved to four and a half. Dolphins injuries, I think I've been a big part of that.

I think the home field advantage for the Chiefs is substantial. You've seen this dolphins, offense just generally struggle on the road because of the snap count concerns, right? When you motion this much, it's hard to go silent count. And that's what the dolphins have to do in really loud environments like a Chief's home stadium whose new name, I can't recall. And so I think in the road, just in general, you have trouble for the Dolphins offense. I think in this cold weather, you're going to see that impact the Dolphins offense more

than the Chiefs offense because I think they struggle to ground and pound. They struggle to play with size and physicality with what you want to do in the cold weather. So I think that's going to be an issue for them. I think you've seen two over the struggle against playoff caliber defense. over the last month, month, and half of the season. And I think you saw them specifically struggle against Spags in a very understandable way that's to the nature of their offense.

You can't really change it when they played in Germany. I think you've got the Jaylon Waddle injury. Like, there's just a lot lining up right now against the dolphins. It's hard for me to, as a guy who, like, had a lot of dolphins belief entering the season, they just got really out healthy at the wrong time. And they drew, I think, a bad match of in round one.

Cheaths-Mlan is 4.5. Andy Reed, Patrick Mahomes, a ton of postseason experience. New season, clean slate, go 1-0, every week. I like them to have a nice comfortable winning against the dolphins. All right. I was on the fence for this one, but let's go ahead and do it. Team content over here. I'll take the other side. Give me the dolphins plus four and a half in this game. Everything you said is true. All the trends point to a chiefs win here. Cold weather, dolphins versus playoff teams, all those things. But I like being on the side where I feel like not a lot of people are

going to be on this side. And I think there's a path for the dolphins to win this game. You spelled it out earlier well, that they're not a power running team, but I still think they're going to be able to run the football a little bit against this Chiefs team, shrink the game a little bit. I mean, listen, I'm not telling you there's a coordinator who can take this Dolphins defense and make something out of it in a big spot against Mahomes and Andy Reed. But if there is one, you got the guy we've been talking. I mean, how many times has Vic Fangio been mentioned on the Ringer NFL show in the last

five years as like the guy? I mean, this is the guy. the veteran, he's seen it all, he's been in big games. If anyone can come up with a game plan, by the way, they did a good job against that Chief's offense in that, in that Germany game. I mean, the Chiefs had, what, 267 yards in that game. Now, with different personnel, I get it. The Dolphins are all kinds of banged up in this game.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see them get blown out. However, I don't believe in that Chief's offense. They haven't earned my trust. They're not good at offensive tackle. They're not good at wide receiver. And Mike McDaniel, this is a show me something game, Mike McDaniel. You know, let's go. You built your name on the run game, right?

You need a plan B here. The second half of the season didn't go the way you wanted. Design something. Let's have a show on Monday where Solac and I are saying, oh my goodness, Mike McDaniel, what you did to Spags there? I could be saying, oh, my goodness, Mike Daniel, after every week. It's just eventually people get tired of that, so I don't do it anymore.

So there you go. So, all right, I'm going to take the dolphins plus four and a half. All right, what's your next pick? Good faith. Bucks plus three. We got this number down to plus three, and I'm happy we got it at the field goal. I'll be taking it. Again, does the field goal matter? Nope, but you can't push in this spot in this competition. Do I still do it out of instinct? Absolutely. I like the bucks when this opened and this line has moved towards the Eagles over the course of the week. I think that that's largely a belief in, you know, the long scope of this team and the season long numbers in this

team. You know, I cover the Eagles pretty closely. They're a very challenging team to have any sort of faith They feel like a one, two, three, Cancun team. They feel like, you know, teams got some old players on it, that, you know, I've seen a long season and they see what contending and championship teams look like, and they know it doesn't look like this, and they're kind of just trying to get through it. This is a bad matchup for them. Like I said, the Todd Bulls defense, typically very good against Jalen Hertz. Hertz, numbers from next-gen stats here.

Hertz has faced more six-plus man pressures than any quarterback in the league, and he's bottom three against six-man pressures. In the league, it's 31st, a bleacher percentage over expectation. He's 30th in yards per attempt. this team both in terms of hurts this individual play style and in terms of their structure, don't have the answer to the blitz. They don't.

And Todd Bowles lives on the blitz. It's a bad, bad, bad magic for them. Defensively, this Eagles unit is a bottom three unit over the course of the season. It's certainly been a bottom three unit in almost every metric since Patricia took over. And this buck's offense, not, you know, oh, scary playoff offense,

but a very competent, extremely functional offense, especially with Baker out there. Expect Baker to play and tough it out. They have the ability to run the ball in this team, throw the ball in this team. You've seen bad offenses, Cardinals and Giants have success doing those very same things over the last couple weeks. There's no, you know, oh, playoffs juice coming around the mountain for the Eagles. Like that's a nice like, like for the Chiefs, like, oh, you expect like a playoff bump, right? Okay, it's like a professional team and a good coach, championship caliber

team. Like, they're going to like look, you know, control in the postseason. That's not coming around the mountain for the Eagles. That's a nice idea, but that's not happening. The coach except doesn't have a handle over the team right now. And team leadership is having, is having struggles right now in terms of the locker room. And so I think the, I think the, Eagles come out and are a bit dead on the road, a little bit of a lame duck in the water. I think Bucks plus three is a nice line to get. So I like Tampa to win it overall, to be honest. I'll just take that.

Not one of my picks for the week, but I'm with you. I pick the bucks to win this game. It's just hard for me right now, not knowing exactly who's going to play to make that one of my locks of the week, but you spelled it out perfectly. I mean, you can't watch this Eagles defense on film from the last two weeks and feel confident that they're going to do anything in this game. So I think if they win this game, it will be because offensively they're able to move the football, which when they played the Bucks earlier this season to their credit, they had like 470 yards. So they did it once against

Todd Bulls defense earlier in the season. The Eagles are obviously not playing as well right now, but that's kind of their path to victory. So I'm not touching this game, but my official prediction, I think I went Bucks 27, Eagles 23 in this football game. All right. My next lock, So like I'm going to the first game Saturday. I think you're on the opposite side of this. I've got the Cleveland Browns minus two and a half at the Houston. I was worried we weren't going to talk about this game at all. Yeah, we haven't talked about it.

Yeah. So I've got the Browns in this spot. Generally don't like taking a road favorite. Do not like going up against CJ Stroud. I like being on the Stroud side. So fun. I like just rooting for up. Yes, throw some bombs, make some ridiculous throws, that kind of thing.

But I like the Browns in this spot for a couple of reasons. one, this Brown's team plays a ton of man coverage, fourth highest rate in the NFL. Stroud against man coverage this year, 27th out of 32 quarterbacks in EPA per pass play. I don't think that's like an indictment of Stroud. I think, you know, you look at some of the limitations with the personnel around him. And again, it's a small sample size. It might not mean anything. He could come out and shred their man coverage, but that's what we have to go on from this season.

Now, big key here, big caveat, Denzel Ward has the injury during practice this week. So that Brown's man coverage is not nearly as powerful if Ward is not on the field. So that's something to keep an eye on leading up to game time. But I still trust this Brown's defense quite a bit going up against that Texans offense. And then the other side, you know, Joe Flacco threw for 368 against this defense a few weeks ago. They didn't have Will Anderson. They didn't have Grenard. Both those guys I think are questionable for this game. I think Anderson at least, you expect him to play. But I think he played 29 snaps last week. So he's not going to be in there as a full-time player. He's kind of battling through it. So I think Flacco will be able to move the

football. I mean, listen, he's just throwing bombs. Either they're going to get intercepted or they're going to go for 55-yard catches, one or the other. So he'll give the Texans opportunities. I could certainly see a scenario where the Texans turn him over and they win this football game. But I think the Browns and the way Stefanski has scheme things up, I think they'll have opportunities to move the ball. And then the last thing, love D'Amico Ryan's, has done a fantastic job. the game management thing, like I gave it to Campbell over McVeigh, I'm giving that to to Spansky over D'emico Ryan's. I think Ryan's defensive head coaches can be a little bit conservative in these spots. I think you saw that a little bit in that Colts game.

Defansky, I think he's more, you know, he's been data driven. He'll go with the analytics, which, you know, I'm a nerd and you know, I like that. And so I think his in-game decision-making will be a little bit more aggressive, a little bit more buttoned up. And so I like the Texans and what should be a fun game Saturday afternoon. Yeah, so the matchup here is Stroud against this defense, man. Appointment viewing. Yeah. You brought up the man coverage.

It's been a big delta for Stroud versus Zone versus Man. The pressure has been another thing, right? Stroud one of the most impacted quarterbacks, when pressure versus when not pressured. Now, when you go and you rip through the reps, because I went and I watched through a lot of the man cover stuff and a lot of the pressure stuff this week to try to understand it, A lot of it is because

Strauss just like, I was going to say got to chill. He doesn't have to chill. He doesn't have to chill. A little bit where like if he's like, all right, pressure's coming. He's like, well, I got a post.

It's going to open. Yee? And you just try, like, think about that Nico Collins pressure to throw against the Colts on the game winning drive where he's like,

all right, well, there's some space over there. So I just hanging this out here. Like, he is already big game hunting. And then when he gets man coverage and especially when he gets pressured, he just ratches up to an 11.

Whoever's deepest is getting the ball. And that's sick. It's heavy metal. I love to watch it. Probably over the course of his career, you'd like for him to get to a point where that's not his auto program when he gets like a color flashes in front of him. The thing is that, okay, like the man coverage and the pressure,

you can use different buckets and you can make it look way better, right? Like the Browns lead to the league in middle of field closed coverage. Stroud is third in the league and adjusting eight yards per attempt. He's 10th in the league in EPA per drop back. He's got 12 touchdowns to one interception against man coverage. All right, guys, against middle of the field close. Excuse me. When they're in single high, he's great.

Like, a lot of the, a lot of the buckets, they don't catch how good a quarterback is, rather they catch his tendencies. Like, he leads the league in area arts per attempt against middle of the field close. Like, he's just, he's just, this game is going to be shroud shooting.

He made him shooting all game long. You'd love to have a tank dell in this. You'd love the ability to hit the guy and have him be running and go finish it. But Nico Collins can run after the catch. And you saw how Nico was able to be a takeover player for them. Nico's been an unbelievable, like I wanted to get him on my old pro team.

He's been a legitimate top 10 talented receiver this year. okay, but he's going to match up against Denzel Ward. And then Ward gets that injury and you're like, ah, like Greg Newsom is good, Martin Emerson is good, the Browns absolutely have their guys. But in general, like, it's got to be a game where Nico wins on the outside. And with no Denzel Ward, man coverage makes it a lot easier for him.

So I think I looked a lot at Nico receiving yards and Nico alternate lines gets up a long shot this week. I think it's going to be a high funnel game from him. I think he's going to be successful. I said on Monday that this is the sort of defense the Stroud has been successful against. And we had a listener email me and be like, but I thought that the Jim Schwartz defense

so good against the Kyle Shanahan offense, something we talked about a lot and they were right to. This middle of the field closed coverage is what I'm talking about. Getting single high allows you to throw all these in breakers, you really want to throw in this offense.

That's a big help. And then Schwartz beats Shanahan because Shanahan tries to run the ball, right? And Shanehan wants to build it through the running game. The Texans try to run it, but it stinks. That's, they're going to suffer in the running game. If they try to be a run run-past team,

if they try to be a control the ball team and matriculated, down the field, they're going to lose this game. They cannot win that battle in the trenches. They cannot win that team speed battle against the Browns. Grant Delpit potentially coming back for this game, Delpit's having a career season at safety for the Browns. That's a nightmare situation.

So I think they're going to be pass happy. And I think the Browns are also play game script-wise, going to get them in a pass-happy spot. And then it's going to be Stroud fireworks. And I can't wait to see that. So I think that the Stroud matchup into this Brown's defense. I think a lot of people are like, oh, like man coverage of pressure. Like, it's not good for Stroud.

I think he matches up better than people realize. And then when the ball is held by the Browns, the return of Grinard and Will Anderson can't go overstated. You've got to be able to, they couldn't pressure Flacco at all. I remember, I took the Browns to cover in that game. That says the second case Keenham game was again. There's no chance that they're winning. This case was not great for them.

With Grinard and Anderson back and the ability to pressure flacko, I think Texan's defense can be better than people realize. They're going to give up explosives. They're going to give up big throws and big touchdowns. They always have all season, but they're going to get sacks too. And it's going to stop some drives to keep them to. this. I like Texas plus two and a half. I'm not picking it, but that's the side that I'm on. All right. There you go. All right. What do you have? What is your final lock of the week?

You want Steelers plus 10 or Packers plus seven? Those are the two. I'm literally debating between. So you pick it. I'll take the other one. I mean, you're so on the Steelers. I feel like you you got to get the Steelers plus 10 is what I actually have written down. Go ahead. Yeah. I mean like at this point got a lot of exposure on the Steelers. I got this under. I got the now as you rushing yards, I got Pittsburgh plus 10. So if their defense gives up three, Josh Allen touchdowns, the first three drives, I'm just dead in the water for this week. It's shield back in the competition to be a good time.

Pittsburgh plus 10, I think, I think if I'm going to be on the under in a game with 36, now 35 and a half points since we started recording this, if I'm going to be on the under in that game, and I got a plus 10 available, mathematically speaking, most games that stay under 35, the plus 10 is going to hit. it's a nice overlap. This is a, like, it's, it's legitimately quite rare in league history, regular season or postseason to have a game with a total this low and a spread this wide. It, like, the Steelers implied point total is 12, dude.

It's wild. It's, and I don't think, I think the bill's defense is better. I don't think they deserve it. Yeah, you would think this would be like the, yeah, 85 bears or something. I don't think deserve that much respect, especially with, again, the injuries at lineback. I think it's going to be really important in this game for how the Steelers run the football. And then Bill's offense. Like I, I, okay, they just, they just beat the dolphins, huge win. Yeah, took a punt return touchdown. I get there. Josh Allen turned the ball over three times,

right? I'm getting a turnover prone offense and a defense I can lose to the running. Like, it's just, at 10 points? That's too big. Now, am I going to feel good? Is this a positive feeling for me? No. Will I enjoy this watching experience? Absolutely not. Well, I'll be furious at myself. Yes, but I'm going to take Steelers plus 10 and we're going to write it out. Sometimes you've got to pinch your nose, shield, and I'm pinching my nose. be some stat after this where it's like 99 straight games where a team out gained its opponent by this margin, they won by at least 10 points or success rate, you know, like, yeah, there'll be something like that. There's going to be a great photo of Mike Tomlin and a huge puffy jacket,

the hat low over his head with the headset on, snow in front of the camera, looking like, like, you know, some place on like he's there in the blizzard, got the arms crossed, like a wide stands and just underneath it'll say like, Bill's eliminated. And then like, I'd be like, first team to be favored by 10 to lose the wildcard rounds since 1977. It's Tomlin, yeah, I can't wait. First team to get out gained by 350 yards and still win. It's something like that. Yeah, no, I like the Steelers.

Yeah, I don't like, I really just, when I have to predict the Bill's game, I feel so much anxiety. It's like, I don't know. I know they're going to move the football. I know Josh Allen's going to do awesome stuff. I know they're going to do stupid stuff. How am I supposed to know whether they're going to win by 10 points or not? So I like the Steelers plus 10 in that game. That's your third lock. And I'll go with the other one.

You called it. I'm going Packers plus 7 at Dallas. This is another one I feel uneasy about because I could easily see a scenario where the Cowboys blow them out. I mean, like you said, Packers are so young. They turn the football over a couple times. All of a sudden, one of those graphics, Zach Prescott is 21 for 22 in the third quarter or something. That is absolutely in play.

that going, Dak Prescott against this defense makes me very uneasy. I need a shootout. I need Jordan Love to play the way he's been playing. He's been awesome. Love this Packers offense in the second half of the season. I don't feel like the moment's going to be too big for him. You know, if it may be the other guys around him, I could see that the young wide receivers, drops, misd assignments, wrong routes, all that stuff. But man, Matt LaFleur now 56 and 27 in his career. Like, I really think, like I was healthy. I was on the fence with him for a while. and it was, oh, well, he coached Aaron Rogers. Like, come on.

First year post Aaron Rogers with the first time quarterback and this supporting cast, the youngest in the NFL, and you're making the playoffs, like that. And he's in charge of the offense. Like, this isn't a CEO type head coach. I mean, he runs the offense. That's just really impressive. So I think they're going to be able to move the football.

I'm hoping they're able to move the football for this pick. Cowboys have been so good at home. You know, again, 8-0 with a plus 172 point differential. That's the best point differential for a home team in the last 10 years. So this is a tough spot. I got to bring up special teams. This could burn me, Ben. It could be a close game.

Packers, 31st in special teams, DVOA. Cowboys with a kicker who, when it doesn't get blocked, he doesn't miss field goal. So that makes me a little nervous as well. But man, this Packers team finished the season, seven and three, just one loss by more than four points. This was a really good team down the stretch, a really good offense, I should say. Defense makes me very nervous.

offense. Keep me in the game, even if you're down by 14. Jordan Love, let's pad those stats a little bit. Get a late touchdown and let's get the cover. Two things. Yeah, you said Matt LaFlor the coaching job. We love to use this benchmark in-season shield for coaching. Think about how many players on this Packers team got better. Think about how many players on this Packers. Yeah, Jordan Love, put Jordan Love aside. It's quarterback obviously matters the most. Think about Jane Reed and Tucker Kraft. Think about defensive. Think about Carrington Valentine, man. Think about Lucas Van Ness. Think about Roshan Gary over the course of the last couple of years. Give it how many players in this team have gotten better under Matt LaFlorantz.

It's a sign of great coaching. So shout out to Matt on that one. And then the other thing I would say, you said, you know, I need this to be a shoot. I need Jordan love to keep you afloat. You do, but you don't. Last three games, Aaron Jones, 20 carries in each game, 100 yards in each game. Drink the game. Aaron Jones looking fresh.

Aaron Jones look a little spry, young man Aaron Jones out there. They have, and AJ Dylan was, I did not participate in practice on Wednesday. a little bit banged up. He might be a question mark. So he's gotten that volume in part because Dylan's been gone and they like Dylan late in the season because the physicality and the size. But in general, this running game, with Jones, Zach Tom back at practice, they have been moving the ball on the ground more effectively recently than they have all season. Some of that is the threat of love, certainly, but a lot of that is the health of Aaron Jones. And we've seen this Cowboys defense loose to the running game now multiple times. Jonathan Hankins returned to

practice. That's their run, stuffing nose tackle. Even with Hankins, they weren't the best run defense to begin with. So they get Hank is back. It's a boost, but still, Packers can run their way into a closer game than people realize, especially they control the ball in the first half. That's a good game plan for them. Shrink the game, limit the number of possessions. Dak Prescott is on the field and try to steal one there in Dallas. So that's my last one. All right. Was there any games? Okay. So you're on Packers also, right? Packers. Yeah, I took my the, the, I took Packers and Chiefs in the beginning of the week. And as I went through my work, I really still like the Chiefs.

I still like the Packers, but I didn't pick up for the competition. I have enough Packers exposure as it is. Extra Point taking team of the season, by the way. Yeah. Made the playoffs. Yeah, how about that? Sheal and Ben, let's go. Never doubted, never worried, not once.

Slightly worried. Slightly worried after Carolina. I was very worried after Carolina and the Giants. I have an Eagles box in-game parlay. That'll be up on, on Fandle that you can find out at the top when you're clicking through. That'll be the ringer parlay for that game on Monday night. You can see that. I got a lot going to a wildcar weekend.

Feel good about these teams. Feel good about the reads. For the competition, my prop of the week is Najee Harris over 60 and a half rushing yards, Steelers against the bills. My long shot of the week is the parlay of two unders, less than 45.5 points in Dolphins' Chiefs,

less than 39.5 points in Steelers' bills brought together. That is plus 156. My locks of the week, Chiefs minus four and a half at home against the dolphins, bucks plus three at home against the Eagles. And Steelers plus 10, on the road, in the weather. Mike Tomlin, quote,

we played a complete football game after they moved the ball 100 to 27 total yards, plus 10 against the bills. I've got Patrick Mahomes over 28 and a half rushing yards as my prop of the week. Dat Prescott throws for 300 plus.

That's at plus 168. For my long shot, I've got Browns minus 2.5 at Houston. Dolphins plus 4.5 at Kansas City and Packers. plus seven at Dallas.

And then all the games real quick, Solac likes the Texans plus two and a half. I've got the Browns minus two and a half. We're on opposite sides on Chiefs Dolphins. He's got Chiefs, I've got Dolphins. We both like the Steelers plus 10. We both like the Packers plus seven. We both like the Lions minus three.

And we both like the bucks plus three. So we're on the opposite side of two games. We're on the same side of the other five, I think. Is that right? There's four. Yeah, there you go. I say there's six games. So if there's a fifth one, I'm on, I'm on your side with that one. I'll follow you blindly. All right. There you go.

New overtime rules. She'll be a guaranteed, I guaranteed possession for both teams that this, this, this week. It's the, it's the Josh Allen 42 to 36 rule. I just, I just saw this. I'm hoping now for some overtime. There's go. Get some good overtime games. Which, which, yeah, you know, sometimes when you're rooting for a side, you got to root for the overtime, you know, you're like, Just tie the game, don't win the game. Get me to overtime, depending on what side you're on. So we'll keep an eye on that. All right, thank you to Ben Solac.

Thank you to Cliff Augustine for producing. Thank you to Eduardo Ocampo for his video production. Stephen and Nora will be on the feed this weekend, recapic, these wild card games Saturday and Sunday. Solac and I will return Monday night after Eagles Box. We'll talk about that game. We'll talk about all the coaching stuff. We'll talk about our takeaways from wild.

Wild card weekend. All right, everyone, enjoy the games this weekend. We will talk to you next week on extra point-take. Boss 221 Plus and present in select states, Fandall is offering online sports wager in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC. LLC. Gambling problem, call 1-800-GGG&G and Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, Vermont, and Virginia. Call 100 Next Step, 2-3-3-4-2 in Arizona. 1-88-88-88-9-7-7-7-7 or visit CCP CCPGGGGGGET in Indiana, 1-8-2-2-4-7-70, or visit KSgamblinghelp.com in Kansas, 1-877-7-7-7-stop in Louisiana. Visit MdEGamblinghoblin.org in West Virginia or call 1-800-5-2-2-4-70 in Wyoming. Hope is here.

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