The Ringer NFL Show - Winners of the Fantasy Offseason | The Dantasy Football Podcast

Episode Date: May 12, 2020

This offseason has given some players a new outlook on their fantasy future. We highlight the fantasy players whose 2020 outlook saw the biggest boost after free agency and the NFL draft.  Host: Danny Kelly and Craig Horlbeck Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today's episode of the Danesie Football Podcast on the Ringer Podcast Network is brought to you by World Central Kitchen. Their relief team is working across America to safely distribute individually packaged, fresh meals, and communities that need support. They're now serving tens of thousands of meals daily in some of our biggest cities like New York and L.A., and they're launching initiatives across America to deliver fresh hot meals to hospitals and clinics, fighting on the front lines while keeping local restaurants in business as well. You can directly help the heroes and hospitals and clinics who are fighting for us, and you can help keep your local restaurants alive.

Please go to the ringer.com slash WCK to donate. We're trying to raise $250,000. And if you have the means, it's an unbelievably great and useful cause that helps our hospital heroes, emergency workers, and local restaurants. Please give whatever you can. The money goes directly to World Central Kitchen, and it's a charitable donation. Once again, that is the ringer.com slash WCK. Welcome to the Danesie Football Podcast on the Ringer NFL show, on the Ringer Podcast Network.

My name is Danny Kelly. Danny Highfitz is out this week. I didn't scream quite as loud as him. But that means it's just me and Craig Horrell back today. What's on your mind, Craig? Oh my God, my ears didn't flow out. What a nice change of face. Danny Hyvitz is on a well-deserved vacation.

So it's just the two of us today. I know. So we're going to talk about some off-season risers. Last week we talked about the off-season fallers. Try to keep a little more positive this week and talk about the guys that were probably going to be targeting a drafts and looking really forward to kind of like how they ascend in fantasy football this year. So, yeah, should we jump right into it or do you have anything else to add?

Yeah, this is good. do an optimistic view because, you know, times are tough. News is just getting worse. So let's do some optimistic few points here. Let's talk about the guys who are getting better. I feel like now people are going to be working from home for so long. Is this going to be the smartest fantasy audience that there's ever been heading into a season? People are going to be incredibly informed. I've actually, myself, listened to so many more podcasts than I normally do just because I go for a really, really long walk with my kid every single day. That's nice.

So it's like I don't normally have a commute because I work from home. So I'm kind of used to that. But yeah, it's... And your kid can't talk, which is kind of nice because... Yeah. You know, it's like people who have children who are just like always talking to them, I feel like they can't really lock in in a podcast. But like, what's Calvin going to do?

Yeah, exactly. He just kind of babbles. And I just say, yep, yep, yep. Anyhow. But yeah, let's get going. Let's get right into it. Starting with quarterbacks. I think kind of the big obvious winner of this off season so far has been Tom Brady who went.

And that's kind of, it's weird to say that because obviously, you know, he had so much success with Patriot, so much success with Bill Belichick. But I'm talking about fantasy here. And Brady is going from what was one of, maybe like a bottom five unit in terms of the overall offensive talent. Like his best weapon was a 32-year-old slot receiver, Julian Edelman. And now you're going to a team in offense. with what is maybe the best wide receiver do on the game in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Then you also get Gronkowski back,

which is just kind of an unreal dream scenario for Tom Brady. They upgraded their offensive line a little bit in the draft, you know, getting Tristan Worf's in the first round. So like all things are kind of stacking up for Tom Brady right now. So yeah, I think he is kind of like the clear leader in the clubhouse for the top risers of quarterbacks. Yeah, he's definitely had a pretty good offseason from a fantasy perspective. Well, it's funny.

So last year he finished as the QB12, and this year Fantasy Prize has him ranked right now as the QB12, which is kind of bizarre, considering he's had such a change of teammates. Do you think he could go higher than that? I mean, I guess if you really look at kind of the list, it's going to be hard to sort of break into the top tier of the quarterback scenario. Maybe the biggest worry this season would be,

and this is a huge worry for every player kind of having new teammates, is just the lack of time to build chemistry. Yeah. Because of, I don't know, all of the ambiguity with the off-season. So I guess from that perspective, you could be a little bit worried that maybe there will just kind of be a lack of connection

for the first half of the season or something like that. I don't really know. Brady seems like a... He's kind of settled into this, like, low-Cubey one. You take him late, and he's just going to be steady. And he's not going to have huge days and he might not have terrible days, especially in this offense.

Yeah. It's a weird spot for Tom Brady to be. be in now because of what he's always been. So I'm going to read off, I'm going to read off a few of these quarterbacks. And you tell me if you think, you tell me the guys that you think are going to fall out of this group. So Lamar Jackson, Mahomes, Dak Prescott right now are kind of like the top tier. You could maybe add Kyler Marie in there.

Russell Wilson, Deshawn Watson, Josh Allen, Drew Breeze, Matt Ryan, and Aaron Rogers and Carson Wentzer, kind of the guys right now that fantasy pros has ranked higher than him. I could see a few of those guys falling out of that sort of those top few teams. tears, whether it's true breeze because they just don't pass the ball quite as much. You know, they rely more on the run game a little bit more this year. I could see Aaron Rogers falling a little bit as well. Yeah, I mean, and even whence, you know, if people are kind of nervous about his injury history and with the Jalen Hertz pick, no one really knows. And then Matt Ryan is kind of in this no man's land every year where I feel like no one really knows what to do with him. Well,

the biggest thing I noticed, the first seven running quarterbacks, they all use their feet. Yeah. And cheat code. Yeah. And the next five done. And so I think of those remaining five, Breeze, Matt Ryan, Rogers, Wentz, and Brady, I think Brady could usurp all of them and be the number eight guy. But I do think I would rather have any of those running quarterbacks, even probably Josh Allen, than. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah.

Easily, easily. I still think they're going to run, you know, a, it's probably going to be kind of a similar thing that happened with the Patriots last year where the Buccaneers can certainly rely on a good defense. their defense was good last year. It was very, very underratedly good. I don't think they're necessarily going to have to be trying to play like the type of games they're playing with James Winston

where it's, you know, come from behind. They're always having to deal with these turnovers. Tom Brady is amazing at taking care of the football. So I could see like the game scripts for the Buccaneers being an issue where they're kind of just slowing things down, you know, trying to control the game, letting their defense do their work and then not turn the ball over. So that is one kind of factor that you have to worry about a little bit with Brady.

but 100% and if I put my Danny Highfits transition hat on one quarterback who will have the opposite effect who will have no defense behind him is Kyler Murray who is another huge riser of the offseason with the acquisition of deondry hopkins and just another year-ender's belt with cliff kingsbury yep yeah I think so you know if you if you go back transport yourself to this time last season remember how we were talking about Lamar Jackson as a, I guess like long shot or dark horse guy that could potentially end up being the MVP. I'm not saying that Kyler Murray is going to be the MVP, but I could see him taking a massive year to jump just because, you know, another year of experience in the scheme, an offseason, which, you know, obviously the offseason is very affected by the coronavirus thing. And that's a

factor. But another full off season of learning the intricacies of the playbook, getting on the same page, you know as Cliff King was very obviously they've they've upgraded their offensive weapons they've got some guys Andy Isabella you know potentially Hakeem Butler a couple other guys in this offense that could take a leap in year two and you know like you mentioned just before like he has the running ability that makes him so so interesting is so so dangerous you know as as a fantasy guy I don't think he's not going to go as late as you know Lamar Jackson was going last year people I think already kind of on this and and know that he's kind of in that elite tier of fantasy quarterback. So, yeah, I mean, he's right now.

He's the fantasy pros, QB4. So people kind of know that he's up. Yeah, he's, he's, I remember last year, like, you could get Lamar Jackson in the 10th round. So, yeah, I think he's, he is the one guy, though, I think in this group that has that sort of dark horse, like league winner type appeal. Yeah, and I, people had talked about his rushing and how he,

he was such an underrated rusher last year, and the way they used him from a rushing perspective is kind of different than other quarterbacks. And does his size worry you? Just getting injured, worry you? Because he's so small. Like, you got Dax's a huge guy. Patrick Holmes is huge.

Lamar's just kind of like a freak of nature. He's a whole different... He can't even get tackled, so I don't know if he can get hurt. Yeah. But I don't know. Like, what's your biggest worry with, Kyler, if there's any? I don't really worry too much about that because he's kind of compactly built.

Like he's thickly built like in the sort of, he's very short, obviously, but he's not skinny. He's not frail, I don't think. And, you know, there's been studies. I don't have the study in front of me, but there's been studies done where, you know, quarterbacks are more likely to get hurt scrambling and kind of like trying to work around the pocket than they are on design runs. Because on design runs, you know, you know, generally speaking where the tackler is going to come from when you're running. You know what I mean? Like, you know exactly where your blockers are supposed to be.

you know kind of how the offensive scheme is set up. When you're in the pocket or when you're scrambling, you get blindsided a little too often. And that can kind of- You're improvising. Yeah, so that can kind of lead to injuries, I think. So, you know, it's all statistics. It's all chance.

And you never can really say never when it comes to quarterback injuries. But I think, you know, overall, his game, you know, lends to his body type and his ability to slide and all those things, I think kind of lent him having a good long career. So I'm super bullish on Murray going into this season. and dynasty going forward. Okay, here's my last question for you about Kyler. Is there a chance that everyone is more excited about

everything about Kyler except his actual skills? That it looks, it's like window dressing almost. Like everything sounds and looks so good, but it's like his numbers last year were fine. Yeah. It's like, is there a chance that he just doesn't take a gigantic leap and he's just like, it's the same as last year? I mean, yeah, sure, there's always that chance.

I mean, if you go back to last year again, like remember how excited we were about Baker Mayfield and, you know, how he was going to make this massive jump. He was really efficient as a rookie, insanely efficient at Oklahoma. You know, if you look at Calder Murray's rookie year, the thing that makes me encouraged about what he did as a rookie was incredibly efficient, incredibly accurate, throwing the ball down the field. You know, fitting the ball into really tight windows was aggressive when he needed to be. For the most part, he took pretty good care of the ball. All those things, I think, should translate going forward. And he had like a ridiculously low touchdown rate. Yeah.

So he's due, yeah, he's due for positive regression in that area. I think it was like 3.7% touchdown rate, which is super low. Yeah, yeah. So, you know, I, yeah, like there's always the risk that you could have a sophomore slump. There's a reason that that's a term that people use because it's pretty common. And like, look, NFL defenses are going to adapt to. like NFL defenses aren't static and their game plans are going to change and reflect and that's going to be reflected in his stats potentially but you know overall I think the sum of all the

things like him his ability to know the offense better his ability to develop his ability to you know just know instead of like just being overwhelmed with everything around him like the game like you know the quote slows down for you as you play as you get better at you know knowing exactly where all your receivers are going to be, where all the pieces on the board are going to be, I think those are a lot of the reasons that you can expect him to go forward next year. And then the other thing is just his weapons are better.

Like, Jondrey Hopkins is in this offense now. And you get a full season, potentially of Canyon Drake, who proved to be very, very good in that offense and that run game. So, yeah, overall, I think all the pieces kind of add up, and I think that would be enough to get him, you know, over the hump.

Another big winner of the offseason, and his team seems to like him and care about him very much. Drew Locke, who it was Christmas for him, this entire office. Yeah, you say that his team really likes him. I think that's definitely part of it, but also I think they're trying to make it as easy as possible on him and give him a situation where he's not asked to carry the team. He's not asked to go hero ball and have to do too much.

Like he can, in theory, with this group of skill position players, like, so to back up, they got Melvin Gordon and Freighton. see they already had Cortland Sutton who was an ascending superstar in the league like he looked really good last year kind of came like broke out looks like a super superstar or a future superstar uh jerry judy they grabbed in the first round kj hamlin the second round to go with no a fan the tight end from the first round last year you know really really fast athletic uh versatile tight end they also grabbed four four guy and albert oh um you know in the mid rounds his former teammate at missouri so You know, they've put so many weapons around him where, you know, in theory, he can just be like a point guard.

He won't have to be, you know, the Michael Jordan of his team and try and carry them and do all that stuff. He can just distribute the football to these stars and kind of go from there. And that will give them the opportunity to know whether he's kind of the guy. Like if he fails with this skill group, then... Yeah, it won't be for lack of the team putting talent around him. We'll know if Drewlock sucks after this year. Yeah, it's so frustrating watching... you know,

rookies and second and third year guys try and like carry these really crappy offenses. Like it just doesn't give you a great picture of who this player is and who they could be. You know, in rare situations, guys rise above and just are that great. But like,

it's just very, very difficult for a lot of these young guys. Yeah, I'm sure Sam Donald's piss when he looks at Denver. Yeah, for real. Are you fucking kidding me?

That is, that's like the perfect analogy because, yeah, I mean, on one hand, like, I kind of do like what the jets have done

this offseason, like I like Mackay back to the left tackle. I like, you know, we like Prashad Perryman on this podcast. Like, you know, there's certain things to like. Denzel Mims is like kind of a fun pick, I guess. But like in general, I mean, Levy on Bell, I think, was second on their team and catches in Jamison Crowder was first last year.

Yeah. And it's like you look at that team, it's like, it's still not very good. Like, if anything, there was a little bit like of a horizontal move. At least they made steps, at least they made steps to address that. But at the same time, they let Robbie Anderson go, who is like one of his, Yeah, who's like the one guy who could make a big play. So anyways, it's, yeah, that's a perfect example.

Like, this is, the Broncos are doing what you should do with, with a rookie or a first contract quarterback. And, you know, the, the jets are the, on the other hand. So, yeah. So are you willing to gamble with Locke as a late round quarterback on your fantasy team? Like, would you draft him as your starter just to have and maybe like get a steal in? You know, I think you can't, I think you could. I think it's a, it's a, it's a,

it's a calculated risk. I think you could draft him late and hope that he'll turn into a higher level, higher level starter, kind of like a QB2. I don't think he has, I don't necessarily see him as like a QB1 this year. Are you a two QB drafter? Like if you're in a one quarterback league, do you draft two? It just kind of depends on like how everything goes, but typically no, because I'm typically usually pretty comfortable streaming. Like I don't mind, I don't mind streaming quarterbacks usually in one quarterback league. So I think, yeah, spend your last pick on Drew Locke or whatever round you're going to get him in and see how it goes

and if you're not then you can pick up another guy on the waivers and you could probably be fine with that so yeah there's a lot of competent QBs out there I mean fantasy pros has Locke as the 23rd quarterback and I mean it's understandable I mean Rivers and Garoppolo

are the two ahead of them and it's like yeah like I'd probably rather have Garoppel and Rivers instead of him but it just goes to show how many quarterbacks that's why you probably should do two quarterback leaves because you can you can start so many. Another guy, maybe one that you can't start

is Derek Carr. Yeah. So I'd say both Locke and Carr. Who's the quarterback 27 this year for Fantasy Pros? I would say we put them on this list

because I would say, at least for me, before this off season, I'm not thinking about these guys really at all in fantasy. And now I feel like they've gotten the weapons

around them to like actually help. Like I would actually consider drafting these guys in the late rounds. in a redraft league. And certainly it makes them more interesting in dynasty leagues.

You know, with Carr, the Raiders went out and did exactly kind of what the Bronkers are doing. I love it, by the way. This is like such an arms race in the AFC West. Everyone's trying to keep up with the chiefs. Like, obviously, there's no way in hell. Keep up in air quotes.

Yeah. There's no way in hell they're going to kind of match what Mahomes can do in that offense. But, I mean, at least they're trying. At least, you know, at least they all are acknowledging, they seemingly acknowledging that, you know,

you're going to have to put up points. to contend in this division over the next 10 years plus. So, yeah, going back to the Raiders, they added Henry Ruggs in the first round. He was the first receiver taken. So they had their pick of the litter, and they think that Ruggs is the best guy. I think that's very interesting,

and I can't kind of wait to see how his career turns out because he's a very polarizing figure in fantasy football because of his low volume, scares a lot of people off. But obviously, he's a talented guy, super fast, like touchdown scoring machine. So I'm very interested to see how he turns out. Then they double dipped in the third round.

They grabbed Lynn Bowden, who they designated as a running back. I think he'll be kind of a do-it-all playmaker in the mold of like early career Randall Cobb where you can line him up in the back field as running back if you want. He can run routes out of the slot. That's what he was really in college, a slot receiver. And he also got time at quarterback because they had an injury at the quarterback position. So then he ended up being kind of like a wildcat quarterback. He led the SEC in rushing, you know, as a quarterback.

So the dude is electric with a ball on his hands. I'm excited to see how they get him involved. I don't know if necessarily he's going to be a big factor in year one, but like down the line. I think he'll be a fun one to watch. They also added Brian Edwards in the third round. One pick later. I think he has a lot of upside going forward.

But overall, I mean, Derek Carr's weaponry just got so much better. You know, last year it was like Hunter Renfro and Darren Waller. and now you add in you add in rugs obviously I think who should be a starter right away and then you know

Lynn Bowden they also added Nelson Agallar in the free agency you know Agilar is not anything to write home about but he's an experienced

you know former first rounder and it just makes that that pass catching core so much more dynamic that the players that they added

so we'll see you know I think this is the same kind of litmus test as we're talking about with Drew Locke like if Carr can't pass deep and finally start to unlock that part of his game with Henry Ruggs in the offense.

Like maybe that is what the Raiders need to know. Like that's the information they need to know to either move on from him or kind of like lock him in long term. Yeah, who's more likely to like bust into the top 12? Is it lock or is it Carr this year, you think? I would probably just lean car because he's done it longer. Like he's just got more experience. But I mean, you know, I would say neither. of these guys are very likely to. I would say, if anything, I would say which guy is more likely

to kind of turn into a high-end quarterback too? You know, like in that 15 to 17 range or 15-16 range or whatever. I do think Carr, if he can kind of unlock that part of his game, has a better chance. But I like Locke's overall skill position group a little bit better. Should we get to Minchumania, our last quarterback who had a good offseason? Yeah. So another, same category, I would say. like not necessarily a high pick, but he's on the fantasy radar now, especially in two quarterback leagues, because now he is frisky. Yeah, exactly. Like, he, like, there was a stretch there during the, during the, like, when he first

became the starter in Jacksonville over his first six or seven, whatever it was, starts. People were talking. He was a QB1 in that stretch. I mean, he, he, is he the Jeremy Lynn of quarterbacks? He might be because, you know, he definitely faded, he faded towards the second half of the year. and then there was a lot of question marks whether he was even going to be a starter coming in. And then like three years from now he'll be in the XFL.

He'll be like, man, that was a crazy year of 2019. Yeah, that's a good analogy. But yeah, I mean, the point is, like, bottom line, they traded Foles away. And that makes him ostensibly the surefire starter this season. Like, they appear to be building around him in the same way these other teams are. They added Leviska-Schanalt in the second round,

which I think is really fun. Jake Gruden's, a play caller there now. So, you know, I guess the Carr, the Derek Carr, Gardner-Minchu parallels are interesting because you got the Gruden Brothers, you know, coaches, kind of similar offenses and all that. So it's going to be very, very interesting to see. And, you know, like, I mean, his weapons are ostensibly the same, right? I mean, he's got Fournette. He's got DJ Chark. They brought in Tyler Eifert. I don't know if that does anything for you. Oh, yeah. Oh, definitely. Oh, hey, Red Zone Animal. And then they got Chris Conley. So it's like, you know, I don't

No, it's like, I think Gordon and Minchie might be like a viable by-week QB in one quarterback leagues. Yeah, I would say that. He's a streamer option for sure in two quarterback leagues. I think, you know, he's a hell of a lot more interesting than he was kind of before this. I saw him in a couple two quarterback leagues. I've seen him being traded for relative peanuts. And now he's like this, like at least for now in the short term surefire starter who has, he has sneaky upside.

Like, he was, I say it again, he was very interesting to me early on in his first few games. Like, he just looked really, really dynamic. You're in on Minchu. I wrote about him, like, midway through last season because, like, what he was doing in his first, I think it was like five or six starts, whatever. It was like very, very impressive. He did fade towards the second half season, and maybe that was a, it's going to be a cold take exposed or whatever at some point. But, yeah, I think he at least is exciting. And he's more exciting than I ever would have been about like, you know, Bortles or whatever.

But yeah. So, yeah, I think, you know, he's a riser. It's all relative, but he's a riser in that sense. All right. Should we get to wide receivers? Yeah, let's do it. First up, you know, he's one of the top risers of any players, Devante Adams with Packers. Which is weird because normally when you think riser, you think something happened.

But he's actually a riser because it's quite the opposite. Nothing happened. He is pretty much the exact same team. They added no one. they just lost Geronimo Allison. Yep. I mean, I think, yeah, you could say Geronimo Allison and Devin Funches

kind of like cancel each other out. Oh, that's right. Devin Funches, excuse me. But, I mean, yeah, I feel like Devante Adams will go down as one of the more underrated, like, high-end wide receivers in the game, especially from a fantasy perspective.

I don't think anybody thinks about him. Yeah, I think that's right on. And I've already seen it, you know, like Evan Silva, the guys that establish the run, I think are going to have him ranked really, really highly. I believe I saw Rich Ryber at Sharp Football Analysis has him as his wide receiver one at this point.

So, like, Adams has some very sneaky, like, Michael Thomas vibes to him this season, where he's going to get a million targets in that offense. He's going to be the only guy that Aaron Rogers trusts. I know Aaron Rogers trusts Al-Lazard a little bit. There's, like, the Thanksgiving narrative that they spent Thanksgiving together or whatever, but, like, Devante Adams is... Interesting. Devanti Adams is you know I think he has a chance to be one of the the leaders and targets this season and if he can stay healthy last year you remember he he wasn't healthy the whole season but he has a you know he has a potential to just go off so Adams missed four games last year but on a per game average he was the wide receiver six in PBR from week 10 on so that was seven games he averaged 19.8 PPR points per game that is second only to Michael Thomas.

So his upside is, you know, wide receiver one or wide receiver two. Yeah, I think he's the only wide receiver that you can actually make a debate to be drafted over Michael Thomas this year. Exactly, exactly. He has a clear path to massive volume. That's huge. You know, he's the clear cut number one guy. You know, you could make the argument that Aaron Rogers and company are going to, like we were talking about with Kyler Murray, going to be a little bit more comfortable in this offense, the Lefleur offense.

You know, there's even people thinking like the Packers, ignoring him essentially in this draft is going to piss him off and make him go off. Kind of like this Michael Jordan, are you watching The Last Dance? Yeah, just like the disrespect, you know, is going to make him go off or whatever. Yeah, he needs a narrative every year to kind of get him motivated. So I don't know, we'll see, but I'm definitely going to be trying to get as much Devante Adams as I can this year just because I think he has a clear path to massive, massive production. All right, so the next guy that had a great offseason was, was Alan

Robinson. And again, it's pretty much just because he lost his quarterback. Now, you noted here, Alan Robinson's quarterbacks to date are Chad Henney, Blake Bortles, Mitch Trubisky, Mike Glennon, and Chase Daniel. And pretty much throughout his entire career, Alan Robinson has been awesome. Yeah. He was a wide receiver, low-end, wide receiver one last year, I believe. He was the wide receiver 11 and half PPR. Yeah. He caught 98 passes last year. And that's with Mitch Trubisky and Chase Daniel. I was looking at at the rankings and stuff for this year, I have no idea why AJ Brown, O'Dell Beckham, and Juju

are listed ahead of him in people's early rankings. I think he's the most underrated ride receiver one, and you can get him at a huge discount. And if you wanted to, like, get a running back or two to start your draft, I think Alan Robinson is the perfect Y receiver one to have on your roster that no one will really suspect. Absolutely. I totally agree.

He's also not even old. I think he's like 27 years old. I think he is too. He's still absolutely in his prime. he's 26. He'll turn 27 before the season starts. But yeah, I mean, he's got to be up there

with the most underrated players in the entire NFL, just people, and it's absolutely because of who he's played with. I mean, we just talked about it. He's been on these bad offenses. He's been with these,

you know, middling to bad quarterbacks his whole career. I don't know if necessarily I would list Nick Foles as like a star quarterback, obviously. But he's probably number one

out of all those people we just named. To me, he's a clear upgrade over Trubisky, number one, but like any of those other guys, you know, his just his ability to pull the trigger, his ability to attack deep. I just really hope that that Foles not only wins the job, but kind of like can stay healthy and hold on to it. And that offense can take a jump this year because there's just a lot of players in

that offense I like. Al-Robinson, you know, Anthony Miller, you know, David Montgomery, I was really high hopes for last year. It just didn't pan out at all. So I just really hope it is a function. of like travisky just holding that offense back. And we can kind of see like really good production out of all these guys in the Bears' offense next year.

Yeah. And I think people really, like a lot of fantasy writers particularly like when talking about projections, they love like youth and they love the unknown. Like A.J. Brown, he's young and like, oh my God, what could he do next year? Like it could be insane. His ceiling is.

And then even guys like juju, it's like, oh, you know, he had a down year last year. He was so good year before that like Ben's coming back. Odell Beckham. Like his talent is so, who knows what he could do. But it's like, Alan Robinson is just like, year and year out, just cranking away great seasons

beside the year he tore his ACL. Right. And I bet you, I would draft him over all three of those guys. Yeah, I love it. I love it. I don't even think that's spicy. I just like that a lot. Minimum spice. It's just like a little cayenne sprinkle on top. So yeah, let's talk about Adam Thielen of the Vikings

because I think he's another riser in this offseason. Obviously, the Vikings traded away, Stefan Diggs. That makes Thielen the clear cut number one. They did draft Justin Jefferson in the first round, but I don't think you're going to expect Justin Jefferson to come in and necessarily command the type of, you know, I mean, he might get a good amount of volume, but I don't think he'll command the type of, you know,

targets or just attention that Stefan Diggs did from Kurt Cousins. Do you remember last year, like the squeaky wheel narrative where Stefan Diggs was constantly like bitching about not getting the ball and all that? Like, I think that's legit. Like, I don't, you know, I don't see Jefferson doing that with, with, uh, cousins next year. And so, um, I think, Thielen is the clear cut number one in that offense. He's going to get a ton of, he's going to get a ton of volume. I actually saw this really interesting stat. Per NFL networks, Michael Floreo, and that is not the other Mike Floreo.

From 2018 through week six last year when he heard his hamstring, Thielen averaged 18.5 fantasy points per game. That would have made him the wide receiver seven over the last two seasons behind only Michael Thomas, Antonio Brown, Devante Adams, Hopkins, Jones, and Hill, Tyree Kill. So that's elite, elite company to be in. Well, and I mean, you said, like, that would have made him

the wide receiver seven in the last two seasons. He was the wide receiver seven in 2018. Yeah. I mean, it's like, it's just right there, plain and simple, like on paper. I don't know. And they have him, Fantasy Pros, has Adam Thielen as the Y, Y, Receiver 15. I feel like the lesson I'm learning just from, from doing this episode with you is that I think I like these, like, late

wide receiver 1 guys, like these like 10, 11, 12, 13, 13, 14, 15 guys a lot more. And I think they have like 92% of the same upside as the other guys that you're going to have to spend a first round pick on. Yeah, Thielen's an interesting case, I think, because, you know, he's a little bit older. There's like people hold on to the undrafted thing, I think, too, like with players. Like, he was an undraught. Like, his pedigree wasn't strong.

And so. Yeah, he'll be 30 when the season starts. Yeah, so he's getting up there. But, I mean, he's still an elite route runner. He's still really, really good at the catch point, like late separate. operator. I just think he's going to inherit a good chunk of Diggs's volume from last year and just absolutely go off. And it's going to be like in PPR especially, he's going to get just an insane amount of targets. So yeah, and there's something to be said with like chemistry. Like he has

chemistry with Kirk and that's huge, especially this year. Yeah. And, you know, especially this year, like you said with the COVID thing, like that just really puts Justin Jefferson kind of at a disadvantage going into next year where, you know, he's not going to have that, that the reps with. with cousins. So, yeah, I think, you know, Thelan's another guy. He's just, I'm absolutely going to be targeting this dude. Yeah, it's like guys like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Like, they are both rated ahead of Adam Thielen.

And it's like they're going to have no offseason with their 42-year-old quarterback in a brand new scheme, essentially, because of what Tom Brady is capable of. Are we really locked in that they're both going to have better years than Adam Thielen, who's now alone in Minnesota? I don't know. I think there's absolutely a discussion there. I think surely when you're talking about Mike Evans, I'm less confident about Evans.

I'm a little more, I guess, confident that Godwin can keep up his volume and his production just because his role as the slot guy in that offense should still be strong. And Brady is so good at targeting, you know, over the middle of field that I think Godwin will certainly. Just make him his super Edelman. Exactly. So I don't, you know, like I'm certainly more worried about Mike Evans. And I would, like, we could have that conversation about Thielen over Evans. And I wouldn't think.

Oh, we will. I wouldn't think you're crazy. Let's just throw out one more. Rashad Perryman of the Jets. Obviously last year, you know, he's a former first round bus, like, just did not work out with the Ravens. He was injured for, like, basically his whole first contract. And came into Tampa Bay last year and made some really impressive play. Like, he looked exactly like, I think, what we wanted him to look like.

like on that rookie contract when he was a first round pick. Another late breakout guy like Devonty Parker. So he signs with a Jets. I guess my question is, do you see him as a riser first of all? Well, that's why I wrote here, it's

tricky if he's a riser or not because with a hobbled Evans and Godwin, he really shined. He averaged 100 yards in a touchdown for the last five games of the season. But it's like, with Godwin and Evans healthy, I would say, that he's in a better situation on the Jets,

but he's also probably not going to have the numbers he had on the bucks. So, because, I mean, his competition is Crowder, who's the slot receiver, Denzel Mims is a rookie, and Josh Doxon maybe sucks. And then Levy on Bell. So I don't know if I would consider him a riser. I'll say this. I'd rather have him now than I would if he was still on the bucks. Yeah, definitely.

In that sense, I think maybe we just call him like a really interesting late-round flyer. Yeah, like his fantasy points will go up, but his efficiency numbers will go down. Yeah, I think, you know, I've said this a couple of times on this podcast. I just generally speaking, like, don't trust Adam Gase. And so it makes me nervous. I do. I've been a Sam Darnold fan. Like, I'm rooting for him and I really want him to take that next step.

But it just, man, it just doesn't feel like the Jets are going in the right direction. Even though, you know, I do like a few of the moves they made this year. I think Mims is going to be good. but I don't know. It's just hard to buy into that Jets offense overall. All right, let's get to running backs. Kenyon Drake is our first guy who had a great offseason because I don't know if you heard David Johnson is not on the team anymore.

Yeah, so Drake is the clear starter, I think, in Arizona, and that's been established. They traded away, you know, David Johnson. They did draft a running back, but it wasn't until the seventh round, so I don't think he's a threat in the short term. Drake is playing on a franchise tag. So to me, that kind of just says the Cardinals are comfortable, like, giving him a good workload. They're not trying to, like, protect him long term.

They're not trying to, like, you know, keep him healthy or whatever. Like, I just feel like that's a sign, a signal that they're willing to ride him this year. That gives him, honestly, like, top three, top four potential, I think, in 2020. So from week nine on, which is after he was traded to Arizona from the Dolphins, he was the RB4 in PBR. And the RB3 in points per game, he played one fewer game than a couple guys. So that just gives him the ability to smash this year. The Cardinals run game is based on spacing and tempo, and he was a perfect fit for it. Like they were number two, I believe, were number three.

And in rushing DVOA last year, they're just really, really efficient on the ground because they spread teams out and they force them to defend the run or to defend the pass. You know, they spread guys out and they pass deep. So teams aren't really loading the box and trying to stop this team's run game and that was like perfect for Drake who is really really explosive in space I just think he has huge huge potential this year he's going to be

you know the type like the Austin Eccler kind of like Dark Horse to come out of nowhere well he's not he's not coming out of nowhere but like to be that level do you think he can compete with the same amount of touches as these elite elite guys

like is he going to get the ball as much as McCaffrey and Sequin and Zeke do probably not but they do run a lot of plays I just you know I don't think it's really really difficult to get like the level of volume that those two guys get Zika or those three guys get

or even just like a Dalvin cook a Joe Mixin like if Kenyon Drake is going to be in that in that discussion I feel like he has the opportunity in the I guess I shouldn't say opportunity he has the talent and it's the right offense but because of the way they run their team and run their offense do you think Drake will just like

unfortunately be limited to like 15 to 17 touches a game? That's tough to say, but I think he can handle it. I'll put it that way. Like, he looked really, really good. He ran really, really hard. Like, do they spread the ball around too much for anybody to be like a true elite fantasy player? It's possible. So I'm going to, I'll just read off his carries, you know, from week seven on,

15, 10, 16, 13, 13, 11, 22, 24, and 12. So he's certainly more in like the, 15. He's in like the Alvin Camara range kind of. Yeah. But again, like he's so efficient. The other thing to think about is in week 15, he scored four touchdowns. He had 22 carries, 137 yards, four touchdowns. So he got like a huge chunk of production in that one game, which kind of, it can kind of skew, you know, the full season projections. But, but yeah, I think that's a good point, you know, if he, if he's in the 15 to 17 carry range, you know, that he's not going to have the upside of Christian McCaffrey who's probably going to get, you know, 20, 25 a game or whatever. And so it's certainly something to think about. But I don't think he, I don't think anyone's really considering taking him over those guys. So he's at the 10th spot right now on Fantasy Pro rankings. He's right below Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb and Joe Mixen and Derek Henry. And if you were drafted, and the people right after him are Aaron Jones and Austin Echler. And if you were going to draft kind of in that group of five, it's like if you were going to pick one of them,

who you think had the best chance to end up in the top five, I would say it's Kenyon Drake or Joe Mixin, probably. Yeah. I think I'd rather have Kenyon Drake over Josh Jacobs because of his receiving ability. Nick Chubb, it's like, we don't know what the Kareem Hunt splits going to be like. Drake has that sole role just to him,

and that's what I think is enticing about him. Yeah. I mean, every indication we've seen from the Raiders this offseason is that they either don't trust Josh Jacobs as a pass catcher or just don't want to feature him there, which is weird because he's a good pass catcher. And now he doesn't have to run on the A's dirt, you know? That's a real thing.

I know. That's hard. Yeah. So anyways, that's pretty disappointing just from Josh Jacobs' perspective. But I'm with you, though. You know, I just think if I'm going to buy into an offense this year, the Cardinals are definitely one of those teams where I'm just like, I want to board. I want to get as many of these guys as I can because I think they could really just go off. So, yeah.

So this next guy I feel like is going to be a massive topic in this fantasy offseason. It's David Johnson. We're definitely calling him a riser for this season. So David Johnson is just a really odd case. So he's experienced like one of the starkest falls amongst previous number one overall pick fantasy players in recent memory, which he was. In 2017, he was the consensus number of overall pick because in 2016 he had over 2,000 yards of offense and scored 20 touchdowns. And he was amazing. I mean, he was like, by far, top two running backs from a talent perspective in the league and, like, number one from fantasy.

In that following year, when he was the number one overall pick, Bruce Ariens and David Johnson both discussed that they think he could handle 30 touches and how, you know, he's kind of resetting the market for what running backs could earn. And then he broke his wrist and he pretty much missed the entire year. Man, that was like the week one or two, wasn't it? Yeah, I remember my buddy Chris Haddam in his chat. Devastated. It's one of those brutal. I remember Jamal Charles was a huge one. I think he tore his ACL. like week one one year but yeah

the David Johnson wrist was brutal and then his next season he played all 16 games with Josh Rosen in a terrible offensive line in one of the worst teams ever and he struggled

and it was inconsistent that was the Mike McCoy offense where wasn't this correct me if I'm wrong but this is this is the offense where they just ran him

straight up the gut like 79% of his runs or something like that it was so good yeah it may have well have been you back there they just run you right into the left guard

and you butt fumble every time. And then last year, Kenyon Drake stole the show, and again, he battled injuries. So it's like he is, I guess he's a little older. I think he's 28, or going to be 28 for the season.

But Lamar Miller is gone. They traded Dandre Hopkins for him. His coach is going to be committed. He might have the best align of his career and the best quarterback of his career. David Johnson, I think, is currently listed. Let me look this up here. He is the running back 21 for half PPR and

fantasy pros. And he's a great receiver. He cut 80 balls in that 2016 season. Yeah, he's a good receiver. Potentially the biggest steal of the draft is David Johnson as the 21 overall running back. Yeah. So I think you're absolutely right though. Like what you said at the beginning, this is going to be a huge, huge argument, I think, for everyone. I'm already having arguments about it with people. Like, I think he just looked like he was just gone last year at points. You know, there's just no juice, no explosion, no change. of direction. You know, he's always been very explosive,

freakish athlete type player, and there was points last year where he just looked done. But that doesn't necessarily mean, you know, full offseason recovering. He was battling all these injuries. Like, he's had injuries that have limited his production. And if he's healthy and gets back to kind of like what we thought of David Johnson before, you know, he kind of fell off a cliff.

Yeah, he's in a great situation. He's going to get a ton of. volume. They spent a lot to get him. That doesn't necessarily mean anything because they also spent a lot to get Duke Johnson and then didn't use him. So who knows what they're going to do. But I just think, you're right. He's going to be one of the more interesting fantasy players because you know, if you take him early and then he just flames out, like that really hurts your season. But he also has the potential to be a running back won this season. I mean, easily. I mean, I honestly don't even get, maybe I'm way too bullish on it. But like he's next to Mark Ingram, James Connor, Jonathan

Taylor. Like, I would take him over those three in a heartbeat. Would you not? I don't think I would. That's the thing. You'd rather have James Connor? Maybe not James Connor. Or even Mark Ingram, there's like nine running backs on the Ravens. Yeah. I mean, I think I would fall a victim to the, like you were talking about earlier, the new shiny new toy. Like, I would probably take Jonathan Taylor that, that group. But I definitely like get the argument that you're making. And I totally understand where you're coming from. I just think I can't get there's one run in particular. Everybody always

shares the giff of it where David Johnson just kind of like jogged until he got tackled. Like you know, maybe he like had a tight hamming. Like we can't just judge somebody up one play. Go watch his 2016 tape. You absolutely cannot judge by one play.

And you know, whatever. He was following his blocking. There was no blocking and then he got tackled. So whatever. It's not like an indictment on his whole career. But it's hard to get that to your mind though the same time. It'll be an interesting discussion going forward. Another guy who's a hot topic is Todd Gurley's on the Falcons.

This is the same. This is a very similar category. And to be clear, like these last two, I think we're both considering them risers, not necessarily based on their ADP last year, but based on where people saw them when, you know, a lot of people were like, yeah, like a lot of people were like, David Johnson is toast. And now he has a chance to be a workhorse pack again.

And then the same thing, when Gurley was released by the Rams, people are like, you know, is he just done now? But now he falls into a situation where he, like Johnson, he could be getting massive, massive volume. And we always want to chase volume and fantasy. That's like number one rule. And no matter what you think of Gurley, no matter whether, no matter how worried you are about his knee, he's walking into a situation where he's going to get good volume in a good offense. Over the last three years, Falcons running backs have had almost 1,400 yards and 10 touchdowns a season and 500 yards to the air.

And Gurley's capable of doing all of that. The knee thing is the only thing you really got to worry about. He was the running back 14 last year. I think he had 14 touchdowns last year. Yeah. I think people are now overreacting. We've gotten to the point where we're now overreacting about tendonitis in the knee.

He's not 40. What do we have him here? He's the running back 16 they have. I think he's right in that David Johnson range where it's like, if you really wanted to gamble this year, you should go back to back third, fourth round. You grab David Johnson and Todd Gurley as your running backs, and you get Devante Adams and whoever else in the first two rounds,

and you could potentially have four number one at their position guys. So, yeah, so Devante Freeman last year, he vacates 184 carries in 70 targets in 14 games. That's the big thing to me. That's one thing that really stands out here. Gurley has always made like his hay because he's just an amazing receiver. or like that was what makes him, that was what helped make him such an elite fantasy producer for so many years

because he was a huge, huge part of their passing game in addition to getting all those goal line carries. Last year, he only had 49 targets. He fell off the map as a pass catcher. And Freeman's vacating 70 targets in 14 games. So, you know,

there's really potential for him to get his career back on track in terms of his fantasy value, get into the passing game, get into the screen game, you know, and starts to kind of be the girly that we remember. Do you, if you're going to choose between these two, if you have Gurley and Johnson on the board, who you take in?

David Johnson. I think I lean Gurley. That's going to be tough. I think the running back class this year is a really fun one. Like there's so much confusion. There's been a lot of like change and Melvin Gordon's on the Broncos. And there's so many rookies who are going to matter this year. And so many guys are getting their own roles like Miles Sanders.

Who you taking? Okay. So who are you taking? Johnson, Gurley, or Gordon. Oh, Gordon's last. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I think so. But yeah, it's funny.

It's very, it's, yeah, because all these former elite elite fantasy assets are now on different teams. It's very strange. Yeah, I feel like anybody in like the 10 to 30 range has a really likely chance to finish in like the top seven. Yep. It's like, for all we know, Devin Singletary is going to be a top five pick next year because he explodes and no one talked about it. you know. I think this is the season where, you know, I've talked about this in the past. Like, it's very hard for me to choose players in fantasy drafts where I think they're bad players,

even if they're in really good situations. Oh, yeah, that's a great, that's a great category. Yeah. I think they're bad, but they're in a good situation. Like Leveon Bell, I think, is at the point in his career where he's just not what it used to be. And it makes me nervous, like, to choose him because I just like, he just isn't a good fit. I can't believe how gross Levion Bell got in like a year

and a half. He was like the sexiest fantasy pick like literally in 2018 like there was no one cooler to own on your team and now looking at his name you're just like ugh. You can't give him away. You can't give him away. But yeah, that's I mean that's the

that's running back cliff. Okay, we got one tight end. No, we got two tight ends that we want to talk about. One and a half. Yeah. So the obvious clear, keeping with the Falcons, the obvious big, big riser in fantasy at the tight end position is Hayden Hurst who was traded from

obscurity with the Ravens as the tight end three on that team and now he goes, now he goes into Atlanta and plays the Austin Hooper role. So there's like this direct path to him being not just a wide receiver

or not just a tight end one, but the tight end one. That's what Austin Hooper was on track to be before he got hurt last year. So like just saying they get the, like, a very similar amount of volume. You know, I, I'm not a Haydenhurst hater. I don't think he's bad. I think he could be around the same level of effectiveness as Hooper in this offense.

Yeah, I guess I was going to say, like, does he fall into your category of? He's in a great situation, but you don't think he's that good, but I guess not, right? I mean, he's the first round pick. I wouldn't say I like him, but I wouldn't say I think he's bad. I think he's in that range of the Austin. We don't really know, right? Like, I mean, it... Yeah, yeah.

How many balls is he caught? 40 in his career? I think it was atrocious when the Ravens chose him in the first round. And everyone kind of was like, what the hell are you doing? Like, he's this 25-year-old rookie or whatever he was. And, you know, he's a former baseball player that decided to play football. You know, he's an athletic guy. He can move.

So I think that's important. But he, like he said, he just falls into a perfect scenario. You know, and that Dirk caught our offense, which Danny Hyfitz, to his credit, like, was, touting this before last year when we were talking about us in Hooper. They've always used a lot of tight-end targets in that offense. It's a big part of their offense. And Hooper blew up. I don't think Hooper is, and this is something that we talked about when Hooper signed

the biggest contract, the biggest tight-end contract in the NFL. Like, I don't think he's a guy. He's not like a gronk where he's a mismatch creator. He's a guy that will just dominate matchups and things like that. He's just a good player in a good system. And I think that's exactly what Hayden Hurst is going to. to be in Atlanta. So I'm bullish on Haydenhurst. I think he's going to be, you know, one of these very, very interesting fantasy players to watch. You could probably get him really late

just because I think people have him at 18 right now. So he's got that sneaky upside to end up in the tight end one group, I think. Totally agree. And the last guy who, I mean, you can't deny it. He had a good offseason because he was projected to score zero fantasy points, but now Rob Kronkowski is going to score some fantasy points. this. I absolutely love this. First of all, do you think, is he, is he going to be able to get back to be the size that he was when he was playing? Like, have we seen any pictures of him lately? I haven't seen a picture of him.

I remember I walked by him at the Super Bowl and he was pretty thin. Yeah. So he's got, he's got some work to do again to be like playing at 275 or whatever he was playing. Oh my God, he looked like he was 225. Yeah, so regardless, I do think like, again, going back to this whole, coronavirus thing. You have that instant chemistry. They know each other. It's like if you need someone to get you a first down, split him out, make him the ISO, and he'll run his route. Brady's just kind of throw it up to him. And there's going to be that absolute trust. I really, really hope Grant can stay healthy because, you know, it's just a fun player to watch. I think he lands in a

really good situation. There are those questions that we had all of last year. Does the Bruce Arian's offense utilize tight ends? I doubt they would have made this. I doubt they would have gone and make this trade and bring Grunk out of retirement if they're not going to use him. But I guess that is the fear. I do think Gronks got the upside again to be in the tight-ed-one group, though. They haven't listed as 11, which is a little high. Come on. Like, you're not buying it? I don't know. I mean, probably not yet. Like, can we at least see, like, him at practice, like what he looks like before we just pencil him in as a starter on your fantasy team? He's turning 31. He's a champion.

He's a, he's a W. He's a W.W.E. champion, Craig. Not anymore. He had to take the belt away, right now. Oh, darn. Wow. If you retire. But yeah, we'll see what happens

with all Gronk. Somebody in your fantasy drafts is going to be that jerk who, like, spends way too much money on him or takes him way too early. So you're not going to get him unless you're really well. It might be D.K., if he's in your job. I'm not lying.

It might be me. I'm kind of, like, excited about this, but that might be a little bit irrational at this point. That's what it's all about in May. Yeah. Well, hey, D. this was great. This was fun. Shouts to Hifitz, I hope he's really enjoying his time off. He has been doing an incredible amount of work with the NFL draft with the fantasy podcast, the fantasy podcast, and Westworld, which has consumed his life. Yeah, just if you have any questions about anything involving Westwood, just text Danny Hifetz. Just DM them. Should we give out his phone number? Yeah, I'll tweet it out. Okay.

The man works very hard, so we're excited to have him back. And D.K., you will be on vacation next week, right? I will, yes. I'll be taking a little bit of time off. So are you and Danny going to do the pod? We are. All right. It's going to be insane. Who knows what's going to happen? So I don't, you know, obviously Danny is normally kind of like the quote host of this show.

So I am not well practiced at that. But yeah, so thank you for listening. Make sure you check us out on Spotify and wherever you get your podcasts and check out the Ringer NFL show. Check out Danny with the Westworld podcast. Is that still, is that done or what? It's done. Okay, so go back and rewatch it if you're going to do that. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Re-listen, re-watch. Oh, Craig is the producer of the rewatchable, so go let's go check that out. We're going to do the whole gamut, yeah. Flying coach. Flying coach with Pete Carroll and Steve Kerr, which is awesome. Yeah, we just had Dave Roberts, manager of the Dodgers on. Check that out. What else can I plug?

Should I just plug everything on the ringer.com? Yeah, why don't we pull out the ringer.com. We'll go through every article. Yeah. People are doing. Pull it up. Check out all the fun stuff we're doing. You nailed that, D.K.

Thank you, thank you. This was fun, man. All right, see you guys next time.