The Rundown - 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5%, Bitcoin Rally Hits a Wall

Episode Date: September 15, 2026

Market update for September 15thLimited Time Promo: Sign up for a Public account, deposit $1,000 and get $100 in free stock (LINK)Follow us on Instagram (@TheRundownDaily) for bonus content and instant reactions.In today’s episode, Zaid covers:Why the 10-year Treasury yield above 5% is putting the Fed and stock market under pressureBitcoin’s late-summer rally facing two major tests from the Fed and CongressThe one word from Bank of America’s CEO that rattled bank stocksWhy Waystar could go private just two years after its IPOWhat Dave & Buster’s latest quarter says about its struggling arcade businessThe surprisingly high cost of owning a car before you even make the monthly payment

Public.com presents the rundown. Your daily market update in 10 minutes. My name is Zaid Admani, and today is Tuesday, September 15th. In today's episode, we'll break down why the 10-year treasury yield just hit its highest level since 2007 and why the Fed may have no choice but to raise rates tomorrow. We'll also tell you why Bitcoin's rally is stalling, and what Bank of America's CEO said to spark a sell-off, in bank stocks. Then stick around to the end of the show to find out how much it really cost

to own a car in America. We got a great show for you today. Let's go. Stocks were in the red to start the week. The S&P 500 fell about half a percent on Monday, while the NASDAQ dropped by 0.6%. Most of the sell-off yesterday was concentrated in tech and AI names. The semiconductor index, for example, fell nearly 6% yesterday after Anthropic CEO, Dario Amadeh and other AI CEOs called for a slowdown in AI development over safety concerns. We covered that story in detail on yesterday's show, so go check that out if you missed it. I had some pretty strong opinions, and I've gotten some really great feedback on it in the comments, so thank you to everyone that took the time to reply.

Now, we'll have to see if this AI slowdown narrative will be a drag on the stock market. I don't think that it will. I think the bigger story continues to be the bond market, oil prices, and the Fed. Treasury yields continue to move higher. The 10-year treasury yield is now trading higher than 5% as of this morning, which is its highest level since 2007. And remember, the 10-year treasury yield is the most important benchmark in the finance world. It basically impacts the cost for borrowing across the economy, mortgage rates, corporate borrowing, all of it gets influenced by this number. So the higher the 10-year treasury yield goes, the more expensive it gets to borrow money. On top of that, the higher the

yield, the less attractive stocks become because investors can lock in a guaranteed 5% return risk-free, so many investors may choose to take their money out of stocks and put it into bonds. The bond market could be the biggest headwin on the stock market as we close out the year. And remember, we have a Fed meeting this week, which kicks off today and wraps up tomorrow. At this point, the market has totally convinced the Fed will be hiking interest rates at this meeting. The odds of a 25 basis point hike has jumped at 93% according to. according to the CME Fed Watch Tool. You know, regular listeners know I was in the camp that the Fed would wait on rate hikes

until next year, or at least after the midterm elections in November. But maybe at this point, the Fed almost has to hike rates just to maintain credibility with the bond market. You know, if the Fed holds interest rate steady this week while inflation is heating back up, well, then bond investors could demand a higher yield to lend the government money. So bond yields could keep going up, which will increase borrowing costs for the government and everyone else. So tomorrow's Fed decision could be the most important one of the year.

We're going to stay on top of everything. We're going to break it all down here on the show. So make sure you guys are subscribed for the podcast and tuning in every day to stay in the loop. Let's run through some headlines, starting with Bitcoin. Bitcoin's late summer comeback has recently run into a wall. For most of the year, it's kind of been a disappointing year for Bitcoin. Bitcoin peaked around $125,000. last October, then lost roughly half of its value this year, sitting near $60,000 for months,

while all the money went to AI stocks. But then in August, Bitcoin surprisingly rallied 25% in one week, and the price crossed $80,000. The rally also pushed up prices of other cryptocurrencies. Well, over the last couple weeks, the rally has fizzled out, and the price is back near $76,000. And there might be two reasons why the rally has lost steam. The first one is the Clarity Act. This is the big crypto bill that's been stuck in the Senate for over a year now. This bill would create a clear regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies in the U.S., including defining what digital assets are securities and which one are commodities. The crypto industry has been really pushing for this. President Trump has been pushing for this, but the bill is still stuck in the Senate. Now, the Senate is holding

a procedural vote today on this bill, but there doesn't seem to be much optimism that this bill will pass. So that's one reason why the Bitcoin rally has stalled. The other reason is the Federal Reserve. Like I said earlier, the market is pricing in a roughly 90% chance of a rate hike this week. So when rates and bond yield start going up, that reduces investor appetite for risky assets like Bitcoin. Now, I know the Bitcoin bowls like to paint Bitcoin as a hedge against the dollar and inflation, but that's not how Bitcoin has behaved over the last few years. Bitcoin typically acts as a high-risk tech stock. So we'll see.

I mean, the next few weeks could be a big one for the Bitcoin as digital gold crowd. if Bitcoin starts rallying again despite these macro conditions, I think the Bitcoin Bulls can take a victory lap. Let's shift gears and talk about banks. Shares of some of the big banks like Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Citibank, all fell yesterday because of some comments by Bank of America's CEO Brian Moynihan. He was at a conference on Monday,

and while he was giving his talk, he said that Bank of America's sales and trading revenue this quarter will be roughly flat compared to the last. last year. And it was that word flat that had investors and likely trading algorithms immediately selling bank stocks. Bank of America stock fell 5.1%, which was its worst day since April of 2025, which was like peak tariff shock time. See, all these big banks have been making record trading revenues from all the market volatility over the last year or so. You have hedge funds and other big investors constantly repositioning their portfolios and borrowing money and making trades

and the banks collect fees on all that activity. So I think investors were expecting that trading boom to continue. And when they heard Brian Moynihan said that trading revenue might suddenly stop growing, that spooked investors. And you know, this kind of goes back to the bond market as well. Brian Moynihan said that one reason for their slowdown is that companies aren't issuing corporate bonds because interest rates are bouncing around. And none of these companies want to commit to borrowing right now at a rate that might be different next week.

So it's possible to run that these big banks have been on lately might be. coming to an end, at least in the short term. Let's talk about some stocks making moves today. And I got to say, there are not a ton of recognizable names making big moves today, but there's some interesting movements. Shares of a company called Waystar are up double digits this morning after reports the healthcare software company is exploring strategic options, including potentially selling itself and going private.

Now, obviously, when I saw the headline, I thought about the show's success. Session, shout out Waystar Royko. This Waystar is a little less exciting. They make software that hospitals and doctors use to manage payments and other administrative work. The company went public just two years ago in 2024 after being owned by private equity. Now, Waystar has specifically positioned itself as a software company instead of a healthcare services company because software businesses historically get a higher multiple. And that did work for a while. The stock went from around $20 to as high as $45. But these days, investors are worried that AI could disrupt software companies and the stock is down 24% this year and trading

around $25 a share with a market cap under $5 billion. And now the company is looking to go private and it's possible the same private equity firms who took the company public two years ago, maybe looking at taking it private again, which is just a classic PE playbook. The reports of this sale are pushing up the stock this morning. Shares are up around 11% at the time of this recording. On the flip side, shares of Dave and Busters are down. big this morning after reporting ugly earnings. Revenues last quarter fell 2.4% to $544 million.

That missed estimates. And the company also swung to a $12.5 million loss after reporting an $11 million profit in Q2 of last year. The biggest problem for Dave and Busters is their arcade. The entertainment revenue fell nearly 9% while the food and beverage sales actually increased. Now, the company did bring in a new CEO last month, Darren Harper, to lead a turnaround. And he was brutally honest on the earnings call. He admitted the company has underinvested on the game room floor. So yeah, investors didn't love the earnings report. And the stock is down around 12% this morning at the time of this recording.

By the way, Dave and Busters has a market cap of under $300 million. I'm surprised they're not an acquisition target. I wonder if like a sports gambling company tries to buy them and they turn Dave and Busters into like a sports betting hub or something. Personally, I would hate that, but just throwing it out there. Let's wrap the show with a fun fact. Owning a car in America now costs the average driver almost $6,000 a year, and that's before making the car payments. According to a new analysis from Insurify,

the average driver in the U.S. spends $5,851 a year just on insurance, gas, maintenance, and repairs. Car insurance is the biggest expense right now at $2,200 a year, then gasoline costs another $2,100 a year, and then you have maintenance and repairs adding nearly $1,500 a year. And again, that's before your actual car payments. The average new car payment is another $765 a month, or for a used one, it's $542 a month. And, you know, those numbers are probably going to keep going higher as the cost of cars go up and car loan rates go up because of higher bond yields.

So the reality is, everything about owning a car has gotten more expensive these days. The cost of car insurance has gone up 50% since 2019, partly because newer cars are loaded with sensors and cameras that cost a lot to repair. Now, one reason driving up the cost of a car ownership is higher oil prices. The average price of gas in the U.S. is now over $4.30 a gallon, according to AAA. And higher oil prices is also making oil changes more expensive. In fact, Costco just raised the price of their Kirkland synthetic motor oil from around $30 for a two-pack to $58. So they nearly doubled the price and they're also limiting how much oil their customers can buy. So yeah, man, it's just becoming more and more expensive to own a car.

I mean, I live in Houston, so I literally can't do anything without a car here. And I really feel the pain. Now, I drive a Tesla so the maintenance isn't as bad. And obviously, I don't need to fill up gas. But my wife drives a big family SUV. And as you can imagine, the trips at the pump are very painful. Not only that, the oil change light just came on the other day. So I really should have bought some Costco oil before the price hikes.

Well, all right, guys, that's the rundown for today. Hope you guys enjoyed today's episode. Thank you guys so much for listening, watching, and commenting. Shout out to Mike and V for all the work behind the scene. And we'll see you guys back here tomorrow.