The Rundown - China Cracks Down on Nvidia Chips, Kalshi Expands to 140+ Countries

Episode Date: October 10, 2025

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Public.com presents the rundown. Your daily market update in under 10 minutes. My name is Zadadmani, and today is Friday, October 10th. In today's episode, we'll tell you about China's latest crackdown on Nvidia and Qualcomm. We'll also tell you about another prediction market platform raising a ton of money. Then stick around to the end of the show to find out about the big milestone that OpenAI SORA app just hit. And my thoughts about the app after finally trying it. We got a great show for you today.

Let's go. Markets lost a bit of steam on Thursday with the S&P 500 closing down 0.3%. The NASDAQ lost about 0.1%. So a minor setback, but stocks are still headed for another winning week, unless we get a big sell-off today. And just zooming out, if you look at the overall year, the S&P 500 has gone up 15% this year, and the NASDAQ has gone up.

about 20%. I was just thinking back to how crazy the market conditions were six months ago when Trump shocked everyone with the Liberation Day tariffs. Since Liberation Day, the S&P 500 has rallied more than 30% and the NASDAQ has gone up over 50%. Seems like markets have completely moved on from the tariff panic at this point. Tariff news barely causes the markets to move these days. Now, what's still unclear though is how the tariffs will have an overall impact on the economy, especially inflation. We haven't seen. seen much impact in the data yet, but investors are keeping a close eye on it. Now, we were supposed to get the next CPI inflation report on October 15th, but since the government is shut down, that release is getting pushed back, probably until the end of October. So the next few weeks in the markets could get pretty choppy as we get hit with corporate earnings, delayed government data, and there's a Fed meeting at the end of the month. So we're going to have a lot to talk about over the next two to three weeks. We're staying on top of all of it. So make sure you guys are subscribed to the podcast. and tuning in every day to stay in the loop.

Let's run through some headlines. China continues to turn up the heat on Nvidia. The Chinese government has launched a major customs crackdown on Nvidia's chip imports. They're even targeting Nvidia's H20 chips, which is a watered down version of their most powerful AI chip designed to specifically comply with U.S. export restrictions. According to a report from the Financial Times, Chinese custom officers have been deployed at major ports to search for smuggled Nvidia processors after reports showed that roughly

$1 billion worth of high-end AI chips were illegally brought into China between May and July. Chinese tech companies want their hands on these Nvidia chips to train their AI models, but the Chinese government wants to reduce the reliance on American AI chips. Chinese officials have reportedly told tech giants

like ByteDance and Alibaba to stop ordering Nvidia chips altogether. Instead, the Chinese government wants these Chinese tech companies to order domestic chips from companies like Huawei. So this is a clear signal that China is doubling down on tech self-reliance, even in the AI race. And by the way, this crackdown from the Chinese government isn't happening in a vacuum. Bloomberg reports that Beijing has also slapped new port fees on U.S.-made chips and launched

an antitrust investigation into Qualcomm, which is another major American chipmaker. These moves are seen as a retaliation by China after the Trump administration slapped tariffs and port fees on Chinese-made ships. I think both sides are trying to gain leverage in the trade negotiations. You know, Chinese and U.S. trade officials have met in multiple European countries over the last few months. In fact, they plan to meet a yet again later this month. So we'll see what ultimately ends up happening.

This crackdown by China on Nvidia doesn't seem to be impacting Nvidia stock, though. In fact, Nvidia's stock is in the green this morning at the time of this recording. Let's shift gears and talk about Kalshi. Kalshi is a prediction market platform, and they announced that they are raising 300, million dollars and a $5 billion valuation. Now, we talked about Polly Market earlier this week. It's another prediction market platform. They got a $2 billion investment from the owners of the New York Stock Exchange. These prediction market platforms have gotten really popular recently. These platforms let users trade event contracts on real life events, essentially allowing people to bet on things

like who's going to win an election to whether it's going to rain in New York City this weekend or if the New York Jets will finally win a football game. Now, as part of this funding, Cal she says they plan to expand to 140 countries, which is a big move considering they've only been operating in the U.S. until now. And this expansion puts them head to head with rival polymarket, which has been operating internationally for a while now. You know, Kalshi has actually overtaken polymarket to become the largest prediction market in the world, now controlling more than 60% of total market activity. The growth for Kalshi has been absolutely insane. Trading volumes on the platform is on track to hit $50 billion this year. That's up $160.

fold from the $300 million in volume they did last year. And a big reason for Kalshi's growth has been sports contracts, specifically the NFL. That's turned Kalshi essentially into a competitor to apps like Fandul and Draft Kings without the regulatory hurdles because they use events contracts as a loophole. So that way, Kalshi doesn't have to get state-by-state approval to allow sports betting on their platform. And Kalshi's probably not going to face much regulatory pushback anytime soon because Donald Trump Jr. advises the company. Fun fact, he also advises Polymarket, which is weird, but yeah, good chance both these companies aren't going to have any issues with regulators anytime soon. So these prediction market

platforms are probably going to continue to grow over the next couple of years. Let's talk about some stocks making moves today. Shares of Applied Digital are getting a big boost this morning after beating on earnings and also landing a major deal with CoreWeave. Applied Digital is a company that designs and operates to physical data centers, including all the power needed to run these data centers, and they lease that infrastructure to AI companies like a CoreWeep. In this specific deal with CoreWeave Applied Digital agreed to lease out 150 megawatts of power from their new Polaris Forge 1 campus in North Dakota. Now, the site is still under construction, but it's already fully leased. Once this data center is complete, the project is expected to generate about $11 billion in contracted revenue for

Applied Digital. So Applied Digital is another one of those companies that's becoming critical to the AI supply chain. They make and operate the data centers that gets leased to Corweave, core weave and stocks to data centers with Nvidia's chips, and they sell that capacity to companies like OpenAI and Microsoft. So yeah, Applied Digital has been a big winner of the AI infrastructure buildout. Their shares are up more than 25% this morning and they're up more than 230% for the year. Now, on the flip side, shares of Levi Strauss are down. after the denim maker warned that their profit margins will take a hit because of tariffs. See, Levi sources most of their products from countries like Bangladesh, Cambodia, and Pakistan,

which all face elevated tariff levels, which Levi says will shave off about 1.3% from their gross margins. Now, to manage the effect of tariffs, Levi said that it has already secured about 70% of its holiday inventory, and they're also going to be raising prices slightly. But the uncertainty around tariffs and trade policy is sending Levi's stock down around 7% this morning. Now, looking beyond the tariff stuff, though, Levi's is actually doing pretty well. And if you zoom out on Levi's stock chart, it's up nearly 30% for the year. So they're having a pretty good year so far. Let's wrap the show with the fun fact.

OpenAI's new app, SORA, has already hit 1 million downloads in less than five days, which is faster than what ChatGPT did when it launched. And what's crazy about this accomplishment is that SORA is still invite only, meaning you need an invite code to get access to it, and it's only available on the iPhone and in North America. Yet it's still sitting at number one on the Apple App Store. I finally got access to the app this week. Shout out to my buddy Bilala for the hookup.

And I got to say, I wanted to hate this thing so bad. But it's kind of fun, all right? There was definitely some banger AI videos on there. I made a few AI videos of myself, and I post some of them on Instagram later. No, I'm still anti-AI slop. You guys know that. But yeah, this app was pretty fun, all right? Now, the novelty has worn off after a couple days.

I'm not sure how much longer I'm going to use it. But it's pretty clear that OpenAI is trying to make some sort of social media type app to compete with meta. We'll have to see if SORA has legs or if it's just going to be one of those things that's viral for a couple weeks and people forget about it after that. By the way, if you guys want to hear a more in-depth discussion about AI, AI infrastructure buildout and what it all means for the economy, then be sure to tune in to our weekend interview episode. Kyla Scanlan is coming back on and we're also bringing on Alex Heath. Kyle has a lot of great takes on the current state of AI. And Alex is very plugged into the tech scene.

In fact, he was at Open AI's Dev Day. So I'm hype for that conversation. I think you guys will really enjoy it. That interview will be posted on Sunday morning. So keep an eye out for that over the weekend. Well, all right, guys, that's the rundown for today. That's the rundown for this week. Hope you guys enjoy the episodes this week.

If you did and you have like five extra seconds, consider giving us a five-star rating on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen to your podcast. And if you are listening on Spotify, don't forget the vote in today's Spotify poll. Leave us a comment on Spotify. All that engagement really does help us out. And it helps other people find the show.

Also, be sure to tune into our weekend episodes. We've got a deep dive coming up this weekend on some nuclear stocks. And then also the conversation with Kyla and Alex Heath. So keep an eye out for that. Thank you guys so much for listening, watching and commenting. Shout out to Mike and Connor. for all the work behind the scenes. And we'll see you guys back here this weekend for the deep dive.

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