The Rundown - CPI Unexpectedly Rises, Jamie Dimon Warns of Recession

Episode Date: March 12, 2024

Stock market update for March 12, 2024. Get started with Public: Click Here The content of the podcast is for general and informational purposes only. All views presented in this show reflect the opinions of the guest and the host. You should not take a mention of any asset, be it cryptocurrency or a publicly traded security as a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that cryptocurrency or security. Guests and hosts are not affiliated with or endorsed by Public Holdings or its subsidiaries. You should make your own financial and investment decisions or consult respective professionals. Full disclosures are in the channel description. Learn more at Public.com/disclosures. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There is a possibility of loss with any investment. Historical or hypothetical performance results, if mentioned, are presented for illustrative purposes only. Do not infer or assume that any securities, sectors or markets described in the videos were or will be profitable. Any statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements are strictly based on the current views, opinion, or assumptions of the person presenting them, and should not be taken as an indicator of performance nor should be relied upon as an investment advice.The content of the podcast is for general and informational purposes only. All views presented in this show reflect the opinions of the guest and the host. You should not take a mention of any asset, be it cryptocurrency or a publicly traded security as a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that cryptocurrency or security. Guests and hosts are not affiliated with or endorsed by Public Holdings or its subsidiaries. You should make your own financial and investment decisions or consult respective professionals. Full disclosures are in the channel description. Learn more at Public.com/disclosures. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There is a possibility of loss with any investment. Historical or hypothetical performance results, if mentioned, are presented for illustrative purposes only. Do not infer or assume that any securities, sectors or markets described in the videos were or will be profitable. Any statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements are strictly based on the current views, opinion, or assumptions of the person presenting them, and should not be taken as an indicator of performance nor should be relied upon as an investment advice.

Public.com presents the rundown, your daily market update in five minutes. My name is Adamani, and today is Tuesday, March 12. In today's episode, we discussed the latest inflation report. This new inflation data might not be what investors in Jerome Powell were expecting. We also discussed the latest comments from JP Morgan's CEO, Jamie Diamond, and why this Wall Street legend has bad vibes about the economy. And then we end the show highlighting some stocks that are making moves today, like how Boeing is indirectly bringing down.

down the stock price of another company. Stick around to find out who that is. All right, let's get into it. Let's start with a quick recap of stocks yesterday. Markets seem to be taking a bit of a breather right now. Stocks finished lower on Monday after coming off a down week last week. The S&P and NASDAQ were both down while the Dow did squeeze out a gain. But nobody cares about the Dow Jones, so who cares? It seems like everyone was holding their breath on Monday and waiting for the CPI inflation report to drop on Tuesday morning before deciding what to do next. So yeah, let's talk about the CPI report because the report just dropped. The one word recap of February CPI report, sticky.

Inflation seems to be annoyingly sticky right now. Inflation in February was up 3.2% compared to February of last year and up 0.4% from January of this year. Both of those numbers are slightly higher than estimates. And core CPI, which some people prefer to look at since it removes items like food and energy since they tend to be more volatile, was up 3.8% year over year and up 0.4% month over month. Now, this report is slightly concerning because we got a hotter than expected CPI report in January as well, and that seems to have happened again in February. So this lightly removes all hopes of a Fed rate cut next month, maybe even for the next

couple months. Because remember, the Fed's target for inflation is 2%. And we're still in the 3% range, guys. Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates until inflation gets closer to that 2% number. So probably no rate cuts until the summertime. at least, but regardless of this hot CPI report, the markets seem to be taking this news pretty well. I'm recording this pre-market and the futures for the stock markets are all flashing green, indicating a higher open. And I'm not going to lie, I'm kind of surprised by that. I would have

expected the markets to take a dip. But, you know, things can change throughout the day. So be sure to check out the public app to see how the markets are reacting as the day moves forward. Now, while the markets seem to be reacting positively this morning, Jamie Diamond, the CEO of J.P. Morgan Chase, is not as optimistic. Jamie made some comments at a Summit down in Sydney, Australia, where he said that he wouldn't take the prospects of a recession in the U.S. off the table. He thinks the markets are pricing in a soft landing at around 70 to 80%. But he personally thinks the chance of a soft landing is about half that.

Come on, Jamie, why do you got to bring the bad vibes, man? Jamie also wants the Fed to hold off on cutting rates until more data comes out. Now look, Jamie is a smart guy, okay, Wall Street legend. He's been running J.P. Morgan Chase for 18 years. But he's also been wrong in the past as well, just like everybody has. Like almost two years ago, Jamie said that an economic hurricane was coming. And then that's not really what happened. The markets rallied to make it all-time highs.

But maybe he'll be right this time, even though it's kind of a bummer. It's also possible that Jamie Diamond is just kind of in a bad mood because Bitcoin's hitting all-time highs. If you guys didn't know, Jamie Diamond, huge Bitcoin hater. Go on YouTube and type in Jamie Diamond Bitcoin and watch like a compilation video of all the comments that he's made. It's just kind of funny seeing those comments and then seeing where Bitcoin's at right now. But anyways, what do you guys think? Do you guys think that Jamie Diamond is right? How are you guys feeling about the economy right now?

We're going to put up a Spotify poll for you guys to vote in. People seem to like these polls. They're starting to get a ton of engagement. So if you're listening to this episode on Spotify, tap the episode and go vote in that poll. And a quick update from yesterday's poll, we asked if you thought that TikTok should be banned? And 57% of people voted yes.

Well, we have an update regarding the TikTok ban in the U.S. And why lawmakers are pushing for a bill to force the sale of TikTok to a U.S. company? The top concern for lawmakers and security officials is that China might manipulate TikTok in its algorithm in an effort to influence elections with pro-Chinese narratives. There's going to be a vote on the House of Representatives this week, and we're going to be updating you guys on how that vote goes. All right, let's talk about some stocks making moves today. Starting with Oracle, this OG tech company stock is up more than 10% after reporting better than expected Q4 earnings. The thing that stood out the most from Oracle's earnings was the spike in their cloud computing.

business, especially the demand for their G2 AI infrastructure. And that's the magic word, right, AI. The CEO says that he expects their cloud business to remain in hypergrowth. So we got the CEO name drop in AI and hypergrowth. Yeah, no wonder investors were hyped. On the flip side, Southwest Airlines stock dropped more than 13% after they said they would have to trim their capacity and reevaluate financial forecasts. And no surprise here, Boeing is a big part of this story. Southwest was expecting 79 planes from Boeing this year. Well, after all the issues that Boeing's been having this year, Boeing's only going to be able to deliver 46 planes.

So that's a lot less planes than Southwest was expecting, which means it's less capacity and seats for Southwest to sell, which reduces the amount of money that Southwest can make. You see where this is going? All right, let's wrap the show with a fun fact. A water company, liquid death, is worth $1.4 billion. It just raised $67 million. at a $1.4 billion valuation.

Essentially, this company just puts water in a can that looks like an alcoholic beverage. But it's just water. The market that they were trying to go after were people that didn't want to drink at a party but still have a can in their hands. And I guess surprisingly, that market is quite large. And they also have some very, very intense marketing as well. So whatever they're doing is working really well. I mean, you can't argue with the results.

I'm not going to lie, their cans have definitely got my attention at the stores. So I just goes to show you at the end of the day, it's all about marketing. Right. All right, guys, that's all I got for you guys today. If you guys enjoy the show, consider giving this show five stars on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. And remember, we have new episodes every day. Thank you guys again for listening and we'll see you guys back here tomorrow. This is the rundown, your real-time resource for news events and trends in the markets. All views presented in this show reflect the opinions of the guests. You should not take any mention of a publicly traded security as recommendation to buy, sell or hold that security.

Rundown guests are not financial advisors and are not affiliated with public holdings or its subsidiaries. You should make your own financial and investment decisions or consult, respective professionals. Learn more at public.com disclosures. In partnership with Zaid Admani, brokerage services for U.S. listed, registered securities are offered by Open to the Public Investing Incorporated, member FINRA and SIPC.