The Rundown - Deep Dive: Can Hims Survive the GLP-1 Crackdown?

Episode Date: March 14, 2026

In this deep dive, Zaid breaks down how Hims became one of the hottest stocks in the market during the GLP-1 boom, and why the company suddenly found itself in the middle of an FDA crackdown and a legal fight with Novo Nordisk. He also dives into the bull case, the bear case, and whether Hims can actually build a lasting digital healthcare business from here.

Welcome back to the rundown for another weekend deep dive. Today, we are talking about Hymns. This company and its stock price have been on a roller coaster the last 12 months, from Super Bowl ads to legal fights with pharma giants around copycat weight loss drugs and everything else in between. So in today's episode, we're going to break down how Hymns got here, why Wall Street got so obsessed with this company, the Bull and Bear case moving forward,

and whether Hems is building the future of digital health, or doom for failure. We got a great one for you today. Let's dive in. Now, before we get into the bull and bare case for the company, let's start with the backstory. Hems was founded back in 2017 as an online native pharmacy. This was during the time when there was a boom in telehealth companies. Hems built their brand by focusing on the awkward healthcare stuff. They provided treatment for hair loss and ED and skin care issues. The brand was very sleek and modern. Everything was accessible through their app and the medications were shipped directly to your door. It was a huge upgrade from the traditional experience of going to a doctor's office, waiting

hours at the waiting room and then having an awkward conversation with the doctor for five minutes. So Hymns was able to find success pretty quickly. The revenues jump from $26 million in 2018 to $272 million in 2021, which is also the year the company went public. Now let's fast forward to 2024. This was a pivotal year for the company because this is when they moved into the GLP1 weight loss category. See, GLP ones had started getting popular around 2022-ish. I remember seeing a bunch of articles and TikToks about celebrities on Ozempic and Manjaro.

GLP ones were originally made to help type 2 diabetics manage their blood sugar. but they also turned out to be incredibly effective for weight loss. So everyone was trying to get their hands on them. Unfortunately, there wasn't enough supply to meet the demand. So the FDA actually put semi-glutide, which is the active ingredient in Ozempic, on its shortage list in mid-2020. And that opened the door for HIMS to jump in. See, when a drug is added to the FDA shortage list,

that allows compounding pharmacies to legally make copycat versions of the product and sell them. So Hymns started selling personalized compounded GLP1 treatments for like $200 a month. It compared that to OZempe, which was selling for $1,000 a month at the time. You can see why this was a massive hit for Hymns. Revenues in 2024 jumped 69% to $1.5 billion. Their subscribers increased 45% to 2.2 million people. And the stock price reflected all of that. Hims went from a $10 stock in early 2024 to all time.

highs of $69 in February of 2025. You know, Hymns was kind of feeling themselves at the time. They even dropped a Super Bowl commercial in February of 2025. Well, it turns out that Super Bowl commercial might have been the peak for the company because the last 12 months had been bumpy for Hymns. Hymns was riding high in February of 2025. They had just dropped a provocative Super Bowl ad that had everyone talking. Their app shot up to number two on the App Store's health category and their stock was near all-time highs. Well, then the GLP1 environment changed again, and this time it threatened him's entire weight loss business. See, two weeks after the Super Bowl, the FDA announced that semi-glutide, which is the active ingredient in Ozempic, was no longer

on the shortage list. That was a huge problem for Hems because that shortage was the legal justification they had for selling their cheaper compounded GLP-1s. So this announcement by the FDA caused him's stock. to drop 25% in a single day. But here's the thing, though, Hymns didn't really stop selling the GLP1 knockoffs. They just kept selling them under a different regulatory loophole. See, compound pharmacies are still allowed to make customized medications in certain cases,

even when the drug is no longer on the shortage list. They can do it for personalized treatment, and that's the loophole that Hems was using. Well, the big pharma companies like Nova Nortis, which is the maker of OZempic, they finally had enough. Novenortes went on the offensive and threatened lawsuits. But Hymns kept pushing their luck. In fact, they went a step further in early 2026.

See, earlier this year, Novanortis launched the Wee Govy pill. It was the first GELP1 pill on the market, and Novanortis was selling it for around $150 to $300 a month. Well, a couple weeks after the Wegovy pill came out, Hymns came out with their own compounded oral semi-glutide pill for just $49 a month. So Hymns was straight up copying Nosephi-Bel. Nova Nordus's signature pill and selling it for much cheaper.

And I think Hymns might have pushed their luck too much. Because the FDA immediately came out with a warning threatened to crack down on companies making copycat GLP1 products. Hymn stocked tanks following those comments from the FDA, and the company quickly removed the GLP1 weight loss pill from their website. Unfortunately, the cat was out of the bag. Nova Nortis officially filed the lawsuit against Hems on February 9th. The lawsuit alleged that Hymns was infringing on their patents.

and unlawfully promoting compounded versions of WeGovie and OZempic on their website. So that was a big deal because at that point, Hymns' biggest growth engine was facing a major legal and regulatory hurdle. At its low point this year, Hymn stock has lost half its value. But then out of nowhere, a major breakthrough emerged. So let's talk about that breakthrough and the bull case for Hymns moving forward. On March 9th, Novan Nord has shocked some people by announcing that they were dropping their lawsuit against Hymns and instead planning to partner with them.

Under this partnership with the two companies, Hymns would sell a Nobunortis's FDA-approved OZempic injections and WeGovie pills and injections directly on their platform, starting later this month. And in the future, both companies have been planning to collaborate on bringing additional products to market as they became available. Now, in exchange, Hymns agreed to stop advertising and selling their compounded knockoff GLP once. Honestly, it seems like Hymns got the better end of this deal.

because these compounded GOP ones they were selling were facing a legal and regulatory ban anyways. Investors seemed to agree M stock jumped over 50% in the past week after this deal was announced. In fact, it's the best week on record for the company. On top of that, multiple Wall Street analysts upgraded the stock following the deal with Nova Nordus. But what might be even more significant than the Nova Nordus deal is how the FDA reacted to that deal. FDA Commissioner Marty McCarrie publicly praised the agreement, calling it a win for the American people. He said that he was glad that Hymns would stop

advertising unapproved compounded drugs and would keep prices affordable. That is a very sharp contrast from just weeks earlier when the FDA was threatened to take decisive steps against companies mass marketing illegal copycat drugs and referring Hames to the Department of Justice. So Hames kind of solved a lot of problems here. They got the FDA off their back

and Novanortis has gone from being an enemy to an ally. That alone removes the single biggest existential risk hanging over the stock. Now, if you look at the company's business, the underlying numbers have been solid. Hymns pulled in $2.35 billion in revenue in 2025, which was up in the $1.5 billion in 2024. And they ended 2025 with 2.5 million subscribers. Weight loss continues to be the engine for the company's growth. Last quarter, weight loss subscribers grew 70%. So the growth in weight loss is a key factor influencing the bull case. But in the latest earnings call, CEO Andrew Dutum was trying to ease investors' concerns.

that Hymns isn't just a one-trick pony. He said that Hymns has made progress, scaling offerings in other categories such as testosterone, hormonal therapy, and lab testing. Those were all added to the platform in the second half of last year. On top of that, Hymns continues to grow its women brand called HERS. The revenue for the HERS division grew 100% in 2025, and is rapidly approaching the $1 billion in annual sales. And the company sees a ton of upside when it comes to adding subscribers. Right now, they have 2.5 million users.

but given that more than 70% of Americans are overweight, there's plenty more room to capture more of the total addressable market just in the weight loss category. And once these patients come on the Hymns platform for weight loss, HIMS can now offer more treatment options to patients who are looking for accessible and convenient care through a telehealth provider. And finally, there's also the international expansion of HIMS business.

HIMS has been making aggressive moves overseas. Last year, they acquired Zava, which is a European telehealth company, which gave them a presence in the business. the UK, Germany, France, Ireland, and Spain. They also acquired a company called Live Well to enter Canada, which is notable because Canada is expected to be one of the first markets to get access to generic semi-glutide. And then in February of this year, Hymns signed an agreement to acquire Eucalyptus, which is a global health company that Hymn says will further strengthen their presence in the

UK and Europe. It also brings the Hems and HERS brand into new markets like Australia and Japan. So to sum up the bull case for Hems, you have the Nova Nordist partnership removing the biggest overhang on the stock, the core business is still growing, the platform is expanding into new treatment categories, and there's real international growth ahead. So that's a pretty compelling bull case for the stock. But now we've got to talk about some of the risks and the bear case the company faces moving forward. All right, now let's talk about the bare case because there are some real risks facing the company. Let's talk about the biggest one. It's a potential decline in revenue and margin. See, this partnership with Nova Nortis is a big deal, but it's going

to impact Hymns's business model. See, when Hymns was selling compounded semi-glutide GLP ones, they were essentially making the product themselves through their pharmacy network and selling it directly to customers. So that meant they booked the full revenue from every sale. So when a customer paid $199 a month for their semi-glutide, Hymns kept most of that money. But now with the branded Nova Nortis product, the economics are completely different. According to analysts at Canacordogorgenuity, when Hymns sells Novanortis's FDA-approved drugs,

they're likely to recognize revenue on a net basis. So that means that Hymns only books their cut of the transaction, not the full sales price. And this is where things get tricky. See, right now, Hymns has a bunch of subscribers paying for compounded GLP-1s where they booked the full revenue, the $200 a month.

As those subscribers come up for renewal and they transition to the branded WeGoviero Zemper, shots, revenue per customer could actually go down even if the customer is paying the same or even more. So the key number to watch here is going to be what Hymns reports as their top line revenue on their next earnings call. And also if the company cuts their revenue guidance moving forward. If they do, it might be because what we just talked about. The second risk facing the company is that this Nova Nordus partnership could fall apart at any moment. See, back in April of 2025,

Nova Nordus and Hymns actually tried a very similar agreement where Hymns would say, sell we govied through its platform. But then less than two months later, Novo publicly terminated that deal and accused Hymns of illegal mass compounding and deceptive marketing. These days, Nova Nordus has a new CEO, and he said that this time it's going to be different because Hymns has agreed to fundamentally change their business model. But if Hymnors doesn't fully comply, Nova Nortes did leave the door open by saying that they reserved the right to sue Hems again. So that's a risk right there. This deal could blow up at any time. And finally, there's competition from other telehealth companies in the space.

You know, Roe is another major telehealth platform. They've been working with Nova Nordis already. And then you have Eli Lilly and their platform Lilly Direct. Now, Eli Lilly is a trillion-dollar pharma giant behind Zepbound and Manjara. Both those drugs are actually more popular and effective than Ozempic and WeGovie. And Lily sells these products directly through their platform called Lily Direct. That is a competitive platform to Hymns. So, yeah, the competition in the weight loss telehealth space is pretty competitive.

And beyond that, there's still concerns that Hymns is still overly reliant on weight loss and that their other categories of treatment are still too early. The market is worried that Hymns has all their eggs in one basket. And then if you add in the fact that the stock is down like 60% from its February 2025 highs, a lot of people that bought near the top have been underwater on the stock for a year now. It also doesn't help with a CEO sold over $33 million in stock in a single trade last August, followed by another $11 million in sales in October. Now, to be fair, those sales were under pre-planned trading agreements, but it's not a great

look when your CEO is dumping their stock when the company's business model was under fire. So rebuilding that trust for Hymns could take time. And I think the next couple of earnings reports are going to be absolutely critical for the company. So what's my take here? Honestly, I've always been a bit hesitant when it comes to Hymns. The stock was too meme stocky for me, so I never really invested myself. There's just too much hype and I always kind of ignored it. But you know, I gotta say the company is starting to figure things out.

I think this partnership with Nova Nortis is a big deal and a sigh of relief for the company. And the company seems to be aggressively expanding into other areas of treatment and internationally. The fact that they have 2.5 million subscribers shows that they're starting to reach scale. But when you look at valuations, I still have some concerns. The company currently trades at a 45 times price to earnings ratio. And the average price target from Wall Street firms covering the stock is $28, so not a ton of upside from the current levels. I guess the biggest concern that I have is that this Nova Nordist partnership fundamentally changes the business model for the company. So I'm going to be paying attention to the next couple of earnings reports and see what it looks like under this new model.

Well, all right, guys, that's it for today's weekend, Deep Dive. Hope you guys enjoyed that one. Let me know in the comments on what your thoughts are on Hymns. And if you're bullish or bearish from the company going forward, also let us know what topics you want us to cover in future deep dive episodes. And while you're at it, if you have like five extra seconds, consider giving us a five-star rating on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, wherever you listen to your podcast. You know, all that engagement really does help us out and it helps other people find the show. Thank you guys again for listening, watching, and commenting. Shout out to Mike and Connor for all the work behind the scenes.

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