The Rundown - Deep Dive: Can Lucid Motors Survive the EV Winter?

Episode Date: January 10, 2026

The EV hype cycle is over, tax credits are gone, and demand is cooling fast, yet Lucid Motors is doubling down. In this deep dive, we break down Lucid’s turbulent journey from battery startup to luxury EV maker, why production is rising even as losses mount, and how long its Saudi-backed runway really lasts. We examine the bull case around SUVs, battery tech, and a surprise robotaxi partnership with Uber — and the bear case facing an industry stuck in an EV winter. By the end, you’ll understand why 2026 may be the make-or-break year for one of the most ambitious EV companies on the road.

Welcome back to the rundown for another weekend deep dive. Today, we are talking about Lucid Motors, the luxury EV maker that's either pulling off one of the greatest turnarounds in auto history or running out of runway. Right now, the auto sector is in the middle of an EV winter. The hype is gone. The tax credits are gone, and with that, demand is also gone. Legacy automakers are backing out of EV projects and rounding down billions of dollars as they pivot away from EVs.

And yet, Lucid is out here. doubling down. They just launched a new SUV and announced a partnership with Uber to build robo taxis. So in today's episode, we take a closer look at the company, the Bull and Bear Case moving forward, and why 2026 could be the make or break year for the company. We got a great show for you today. Let's dive in. Now, before we get into the numbers in Bull and Bear case, let's take a look back at Lucid's path to becoming an EV maker. The company was founded back in 2007. They were originally called Ativa, and they were focused on making EV batteries. In fact, they even made batteries for Formula E cars.

But then the company pivoted to making their own EVs after Peter Rawlinson joined as CTO. Peter was the chief engineer for Tesla's Model S, and he wanted to use Lucid's advanced battery tech and build a luxury car around it. So in 2016, the company rebranded to Lucid Motors, and by 2018, they raised a billion dollars from Saudi Arabia's public investment fund. Lucid's vision was to make the most advanced, longest-ranging, most luxurious EV on the market. Now, you fast forward to 2021, that was a big year for the company because they hit the public markets via a spec, and they also launched their first car, the Lucid Air. Now, this $100,000 luxury sedan was pretty incredible. This car was getting 400 to 500 miles of range on a single charge depending on the trim, and it received generally positive reviews. Then you fast forward to late 2024, the company rolled out its luxury.

SUV called the Lucid Gravity. This car also receives strong reviews. I highly recommend checking out YouTuber Marquez Brownlee's review on his autofocus channel. But you know, having a great car and having a great business are two very different things. So let's dive into the numbers now. All right. So how is Lucid's business doing today? Well, in 2025, the company delivered nearly 16,000 vehicles, which is 55% more than 2024. Their production numbers are also ramping up. Lucid built over 18,300 vehicles in 2025. That's more than double what they built in 2024. In fact, Q4 was especially strong. The company built over 8,400 cars in that quarter alone, thanks to the demand of their SUV. So the momentum is building. Still, the company's stock dropped over 60% last year and it's trading near all-time lows.

A big reason for that is the company's finances. They're still losing money. In fact, they burn through a billion dollars in Q3 alone. And what's very concerning to me is that their gross margins are still negative, which means that they're losing money on every single car they sell. Looking at their balance sheet, they've only got $1.6 billion in cash left. Now, they did get a lifeline from the Saudi Public Investment Fund, which owns about 55% of Lucid. The Saudis are increasing their credit facility to the company, which brings Lucid's total liquidity to $5.5 billion, which Lucid says is enough to get them through mid-2020. So that's the current state of their business.

The production is ramping up. Revenues are growing, but the company is still losing money and starting to run out of cash. But despite those challenges, some investors think that Lucid can pull off this turnaround. So let's talk about the bullcase for the company moving forward. The bullcase for Lucid really comes down to three things. It's their SUVs, their battery technology, and the Uber deal. Let's first talk about Lucid's SUVs. See, for the longest time, Lucid only sold a sedan.

Lucid Air. But here in the U.S., SUVs are what buyers really want. So Lucid finally released the Lucid Gravity SUV in 2024 to strong reviews, making it a compelling option against Tesla's Model X and Rivian's RS1. Now, the Lucid gravity does cost more than $80,000 with some trims costing over $100,000. And Lucid knows it can't survive just by selling $80,000 SUVs. So they are gearing up to launch a mid-size SUV. The car is rumored to have a sub-50,000 price and it's going to be called the Lucid Earth. So this car could have mass market appeal. Now, the second reason to be bullish is the company's battery and power train technology.

Lucid executives claim that their cars are 30 to 40% more efficient than their competitors. I mean, the numbers speak for themselves. These Lucid cars can get 400 to 500 miles on a single charge. So Lucid thinks that their battery technology is good enough to win over car buyers. Now, lastly, in probably the most exciting part of Lucid's future, is the moves they're making in the B-to-B robot taxi space. Earlier this month, as CES, Lucid showed off a Robotaxy in partnership with Uber and the autonomous driving company, Nuro.

Now, the way this partnership will work is that Lucid will build the car. Uber will design the in-cabin experience, while Neuro's self-driving technology will power the car. This robot taxi uses Neurro's level four autonomous system, which is the same level of autonomy as a Waymo. Uber says they have committed to buying 20,000 of these Lucid gravity robotaxies over the next six years. See, if Robotaxies take off as many have expected and car ownership starts to decline, while Lucid is positioning themselves as the go-to distribution partner for

Robotaxies, which could be a multi-trillion dollar business, at least that's what Kathy Wood is estimating it to be. So that could be a huge long-term growth area for Lucid if they make it that far, because the company is facing a lot of challenges right now. So let's get into the bear case. The bear case for Lucid is pretty straightforward. The demand for EVs has fallen off a cliff, and the company is running out of time and money. As I said in the intro, we are in the middle of an EV winter. The industry took a big hit this past year when the $7,500 federal EV tax credit

ended in September as part of President Trump's big, beautiful bill. That tax credit was a huge driver of demand. To make things worse, gas prices are at multi-year lows right now, giving buyers even less of a reason to buy an EV. And that's why every major automaker is cutting back on their EV efforts. Ford just took a $19.5 billion charge as they pillback on EVs, and GM just announced a $6 billion charge. I mean, these are legacy automakers with massive resources, and even they're hitting the brakes on EVs. So that puts Lucid at a very tough spot right now.

As I mentioned earlier, Lucid is still not profitable. In fact, they're losing money on every car sale. So if they can't figure out how to make a profit, they're going to run out of cash soon. And while this Robotaxi partnership with Uber and Nuro is interesting, it's still in the early phases. You compare that to a company like Waymo, they're out here operating thousands of cars every single day in multiple cities and expanding across the country. And then don't forget about Tesla, they sell EVs at a more affordable price point than Lucid. And regardless of their own sales struggles, they're also ramping up their Robotaxy efforts as well. And I didn't even get into all the quality issues that Lucid has faced over the years with software glitches that caused their displays to crash or their key fob not to work.

I mean, that's not a great look for a luxury car company that sells a $100,000 car. Wall Street is pretty bearish on the company as well. Of the eight firms that cover the stock, only one has a buy rating. In fact, Morgan Stanley recently downgraded the stock to a sell rating, cutting their price target from $30 all the way down to $10. So what's my take here? Well, look, I think that Lucid is in a pretty tough spot right now. You know, their cars are amazing.

Their battery tech is best in class. And the Robotaxy Partnership is interesting, but they just don't have a lot of time left to turn things around. The company themselves say they have enough cash to survive to mid-2020. And I don't think the EV market will miraculously turn around in the next 18 months. Now, the X factor here is, of course, the Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund, which owns 55% of the company. If the Saudis want to keep riding checks to lose it and fund this company, then maybe they can stick around and have enough time to launch a profitable mid-sized SUV.

Or maybe it's possible they get acquired by a legacy carmaker just for the battery tech. But, you know, as an investor, it's hard for me to get excited about this company. Well, all right, guys, that's it for today's weekend, deep dive. Hope you guys enjoyed that one. If you did, don't forget to hit us with a five-star rating on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, wherever you listen to your podcast. And while you're at it, let us know in the comments on what you think about Lucid's chances of survival. Clearly, I'm not very bullish, but let me know what your thoughts are.

And also let us know what topics you want us to cover in future deep dive episodes. Also, this is your first time listening to this podcast. Just a heads up, we post a 10-minute daily market recap every morning throughout the week. So consider subscribing to the podcast and checking that out to stay. in the loop of everything that's happening in the markets. Thank you guys again for listening, watching, and commenting. Shout out to Mike and Connor for all the work behind the scenes. And we'll see you guys back here tomorrow.

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