The Rundown - Deep Dive: How Meta Plans to Make Money from AI

Episode Date: July 11, 2026

In today's deep dive, Zaid breaks down Meta's new AI playbook to actually make money from AI and justify their $145 BILLION capex. Over the last two weeks, Meta revealed plans to become an AI cloud provider and launched a coding model to take on OpenAI and Anthropic Zaid gets into whether launching a cloud side business actually fixes Meta's AI problem with Wall Street, or just proves the company isn't sure the core bet pays off.

Welcome back to the rundown for another weekend deep dive. Today, we are talking about meta and their new plan to actually make money from AI. Meta has been under pressure from investors to justify the billions of dollars in AI Kappex spending, and this week, they showed off what they planned to do. Meta is getting into the cloud business to rent out AI computing power. They're also jumping into the AI coding market to go after Anthropic and Open AI, and they also shipped their first ever image model. So in today's episode, we'll dig into the latest AI pivot coming from Meta

and whether it'll be enough to convince Wall Street that Zuck isn't just lighting hundreds of billions of dollars on fire again. We got a great one for you today. Let's dive in. Before we get into Meta's new AI monetization strategy, you have to understand why Meta is spending hundreds of billions of dollars on AI in the first place. See, throughout Meta's history, there have been a few make-or-break moments for the company. There was the shift from desktop computers to smartphones, then TikTok came along and threatened to steal an entire generation of users.

Both time Wall Street panicked, but both times Zuckerberg navigated the company through it and copied whatever feature he needed to copy, and Meta honestly came out stronger on the other side. And AI seems to be the latest make-or-break moment for the company. So the thing is, Meta still makes 98% of its revenue from ads, to 3 plus billion people that use Instagram and Facebook every day. And AI is really good at predictions. So having smarter AI models will help meta recommend better content to users.

Smarter models mean that you scroll longer. Longer scrolling sessions means you're going to see more ads. Better ad targeting means advertisers will pay more for those ads. So all of that is helping meta make more money. And it's how they justify their huge capax. Meta is projected to spend up to 140. $35 billion on CAPEX this year, and they just keep raising that number every quarter. But here's the thing. That strategy from META is working, at least according to their earnings.

Last quarter, META did $56.3 billion in revenue, which was up 33% from the same quarter last year. It's actually the fastest year-over-year growth the company has seen since 2021. The company said that ad impressions were up 19%, and that the average price per ad was up 12%. So what that means is that META is stuffing their apps with more ads, but they're able to charge more money for those ads because their ad recommendation is getting better thanks to AI. But despite that, Wall Street still wasn't buying META's AI story. The stock was down more than 10% in the first half of the year,

while the S&P 500 gained 9%. Now, I think a part of the reason for that is that investors still had a bad taste in their mouth from watching Zuck, like $87 billion on fire, chasing the metaverse for the last few years. You know, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice. You can't get fooled again. But look, it looks like Zuckerberg is finally reading the room now

because Meta just revealed a whole new set of ways to make money from AI, and the market so far is loving it. On July 1st, Bloomberg reported that Meta was building a cloud business called Meta Compute, and their plan was to sell their excess AI computing power to outside customers. Now, this was a big deal for many reasons, because it was Meta's first entrance into the cloud business. But it also opened up ways for Meta to make money from their AI infrastructure.

The first way was by selling access to AI models hosted inside Meta's data centers. So a developer or a business could choose an AI model and send its request through Meta's platform and pay Meta based on how much they use. And through this platform, META could offer their own Muse AI models or potentially down the road. They could also host models from other companies as well. The second and more simpler option, though, is that meta could just rent out the raw computing power from their AI data centers. You know, all the spare servers and GPUs they have sitting all over the country, they could sell that excess capacity. And this would put meta in direct competition with NeoCloud companies like CoreWeave and Nebius, whose entire business model is renting out AI compute. But I imagine that meta scale and with their resources, they could offer better pricing than what Nebius or Corweave could offer.

Now, when this news was announced back on July 1st, investors loved it. Meta stock jumped 9% on the day, while Corrieve and Nebius stock absolutely tank. But the thing is, Zuck has been hinting at Meta doing something like this in previous earnings calls. And it makes a lot of sense for them to do this, because Meta has spent the last two years building massive AI data centers and buying up every Nvidia GPU that wasn't already nailed down. And with the demand for AI compute being so high right now, meta can now rent out through extra capacity at a premium and earn a R&A. ROI on all that investment. This pivot by meta shows Wall Street a clear direct path for them to make actual revenue from their AI infrastructure spending.

And look, if this playbook sounds familiar, it's exactly what XAI, aka SpaceX, just did. XAI built way more data center capacity than GROC could ever use. Instead of eating that loss, Elon Musk started renting it out to companies like Anthropic and Google that will now pay XAI more than $2 billion a month combined. And by the way, meta going in this direction. doesn't necessarily mean that meta is giving up on their own AI ambitions or admitting that they built too much capacity.

It just gives meta flexibility on ways to monetize their AI infrastructure. They can still train their own frontier models. They can keep improving the recommendation algorithms that power Instagram and Facebook. They can also generate and target more ads. But if there is compute left over, they now can just rent it out for a premium.

There is a great piece from the semi-analysis substack on meta's pivot, and the case they make is that this move by meta actually encourages meta to build even more infrastructure and not less. And by the way, meta is not stopping there. They're also working on their custom AI chips as well to put in their data centers. Just this week, an internal memo was reviewed by Reuters, which show that meta plans to put its own custom AI chips, codename Iris, into production by September. And having their own chip could mean less reliance on Nvidia, which could mean cheaper

computing costs for meta and fatter profit margins on every GPU they rent out. So meta is setting themselves up to be in a good spot with their cloud business, but renting out excess compute isn't the only new AI business meta announced. They're also coming after OpenAI and Anthropic. This week, Meta announced that they were jumping into the AI coding market by launching Muse Spark 1.1, which they claim is their strongest AI model yet for coding and agentic task. Right now, the AI coding market is dominated by Anthropic and Open AI. Anthropic is getting a ton of fans with ClaudeCode and Open AI has codex. But Meta thinks that they can compete in that arena and take market share, not just because

of the capabilities of their new model, but also because of their pricing strategy. Meta is charging a quarter of what Anthropic charges for their top model. So Zuck is betting that by dramatically undercutting Anthropic in Open AI when it comes to pricing, developers will at least give Meta's new model a shot. And you can tell how much this launch mattered to Zuck because Zuck personally posted the announcement on X since most of the AI industry is addicted to that platform. This was actually Zuck's first post on X in three years. And of course, Elon Musk had the reply.

He replied with the word jinx because XAI had launched their own coding model literally the day before. So Meta is hoping to gain some market share with their new Muse Spark model, but that wasn't the only model they launched this week. To me, the more interesting launch was Meta's release of Muse. It's Meta's first in-house model specifically built for generating and editing images. Muse Image will be built directly into Instagram, WhatsApp, and Facebook, and it'll allow users to edit pictures on those platforms using AI.

To me, the more interesting business opportunity here is on the advertising side. Muse Image will be integrated into Meta's advertising platform, which will allow businesses to generate images, change styles, and create multiple versions of ads automatically. So, like, imagine if you're a small, business advertising on meta. You could potentially upload a product photo and meta's AI could generate multiple variations of ads for you from just that one product photo. So this could be a game changer for small business advertisers, which would mean more businesses spending more money on meta's ad platform. Meta says they plan to launch a video model called Muse Video pretty soon. So this will only add to

meta's flywheel because Meta's AI will be making the ads, targeting the ads, and serving the ads. And all of that should lead to more ad revenue. So I guess the question now is that will all these moves by Meadow over the last couple of weeks finally get Wall Street off their backs? Well, here's my take. So what's my take here? Well, I think meta's new AI strategy makes a lot of sense. And it should go a long way towards calming investor anxiety.

You know, having this AI infrastructure side hustle gives Mehta a ton of flexibility now because every dollar of compute they build can be monetized in multiple ways. So I think when Zuck announces a large KAPX number on the next earnings call on July 29th, I bet he's counting on investors to not freak out anymore. In fact, Wall Street is already celebrating. Meta stock has jumped nearly 20% since the start of July. Now, I have to point out, there is still risk here. The entire strategy still rests on AI demand staying red hot.

If the demand for AI slows down, or if every tech company overbills at the same time, then we're going to end up with an oversupply of AI compute, and then meta will be left holding some very expensive AI infrastructure. So that's the bet that you're making as a meta shareholder, but the reality is that's the same bet you're making with every hyperscaler right now. Personally, I'm bullish on meta for the second half of the year. I mean, the advertising business is a juggernaut. It's growing 33% at a massive scale,

and AI is only going to make it stronger. To me, that business alone justifies meta's valuation. Now, meta launching these new AI models and jumping into the cloud business is just a cherry on top. I think it should keep Wall Street off Zucks back for the time being. Well, all right, guys, that's it for today's weekend, deep dive. Hope you guys enjoyed that one. Let me know how you guys feel about META's new AI strategy.

Do you think it's a smart hedge or a sign the company isn't confident the AI bet will pay off on its own? Drop your thoughts in a comment on Spotify or YouTube. And while you're there, consider leaving us a five-star rating as well. You know, all that engagement really does help us out and it helps other people find the show. By the way, if you're new here, just a heads up, we post a new episode every single day throughout the week, breaking down everything happening in the markets. And with earnings season right around the corner, it's a great time to get subscribed. Thank you guys again for listening, watching, and commenting. Shout out to Mike for all the work behind the scenes.

And we'll see you guys back here tomorrow.