The Rundown - Deep Dive: Inside Trump’s Red-Hot Investment Portfolio

Episode Date: October 25, 2025

The Trump Administration is investing like a hedge fund by taking stakes in companies tied to national security. From a $9 billion stake in Intel to investments in rare earth and lithium producers, the White House is putting taxpayer money directly into strategic sectors. In this deep dive, we break down how these bets are performing, what industries could be next, and what it means for America’s new era of state-backed capitalism.Follow us on Instagram ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@therundowndaily⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠This video is for informational purposes only and reflects the views of the host and guest, not Public Holdings or its subsidiaries. Mentions of assets are not recommendations. Investing involves risk, including loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For full disclosures, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Public.com/disclosures⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Welcome back to the rundown for another weekend deep dive. Today, we are taking a look at the investments made by the Trump administration. The Trump administration has made investments in companies across multiple industries in the name of national security. That includes companies operating in areas like semiconductors and rare earth, and there's more investments planned on the way. So in today's episode, we'll take a look back at all the deals made by the White House this year, how the investments have performed, and what deals could be coming. in the near future. We get a great one for you today. Let's dive in. The best example of the Trump administration's direct investment approach is the deal they did with Intel earlier this year. Back in August, the U.S. government took a 10% stake in Intel buying 433 million shares for $20.47 each

for a total of $8.9 billion. Now, the goal of this investment was to boost Intel's turnaround efforts to become a leader in chip manufacturing again. Intel has fallen way behind their competitors when it comes to manufacturing advanced AI chips. These days, all the most advanced chips are manufactured by TSM in Taiwan. So the U.S. government has made domestic chip manufacturing a national security priority, and Intel is at the centerpiece of that mission. So far, the investment by the U.S. government has paid off, at least on paper. Intel stock has gone up over 90% since the investment was announced, with the government's stake in Intel now being worth $16.5 billion. But Intel still has a lot of work to do before being a legit competitor to TSM.

In their latest earnings report, Intel did return to profitability in Q3, but its foundry business, which is the part that is competing with TSM, that reported a loss of $2.3 billion. Intel's new CEO Lip Bhutan, who took over back in March, says that Intel will take a much stricter financial approach. If the manufacturing bets don't pay off, he signaled the company could scale back Intel's plans of investing in new foundries. Right now, Intel plans to invest about $18 billion in new plans and equipment, but I mean, that's already way behind TSM,

which is planning to spend around $40 billion. But look, Intel has the backing of the U.S. government. Maybe the U.S. government will invest even more money. But, I mean, Intel still needs to execute on the turnaround plan and also figure out how to actually manufacture state-of-the-yard chips in order to be a legit competitor to TSMC. For now, though, the U.S. taxpayer has a nice $8 billion unrealized gain on the Intel investment. Now, the most aggressive example of the Trump administration's new investment strategy is the rare earth industry, which has become one of the most important issues in the U.S.-China trade war.

See, China has a grip on the rare earth supply chain. Not only do they mine 70% of all of the rare earths in the world, they also control 90% of the world's processing of rare earths. So this gives China a chokehold on the materials needed for everything from fighter jets to iPhones to AI chips. And China has now been using their grip on the supply chain of rare earths as leverage in trade negotiations with the U.S. Back in April, China tightened export restrictions on key elements like dysprosium and turbium. I'm pretty sure I butcher those names. China says that these elements were being restricted due to national security concerns. Those restrictions sent shockwaves through global markets,

and that accelerated the U.S. government's push to onshore production of these rare earths. So since April, the U.S. government has made a series of investments. The first one came back in July. The Department of Defense took a 15% stake in a company called MP Materials in a $400 million deal. MP Materials runs the only rare earth mine in the US, and this funding is intended to help MP materials construct new factories and significantly increase its rare earth magnet production capacity. Since that investment in MP's stock price has more than doubled. The US government also recently took a 5% stake in a company called Lithium Americas, on top of another 5% stake in

the Thacker Pass mining project in Nevada, which is the largest known lithium deposit in the country. This investment is part of the government's broader efforts to secure the raw materials that power electric vehicles and battery storage. Dacker Pass is actually a joint venture between lithium Americas and general motors. And similar to other investments by the Trump administration, lithium America stock has more than doubled since the investment was announced back in late September. And finally, there's a Canadian company called Trilogy Metals, which is nearly tripled since the U.S. government invested roughly $35 million for a 10% stake with warrants to buy even more. This move comes as the Trump administration said it would approve the Amber Road Project, which opens up remote areas in Alaska to mining companies, including trilogy. These areas have large deposits of copper, cobalt, germanium, and gallium.

So there's a pretty clear pattern here. As soon as the U.S. government announces that they're taking a stake in the company, the stock price of that company shoots way up. But we'll have to wait and see if this actually leads to meaningful reshoring of critical supply chains like rare earths and lithium. or if it's just something for the Trump administration to feel good about every time they open up their brokerage account. By the way, the administration has no plans of slowing down. They are planning to invest in even more industries moving forward. Now, looking ahead to what other industries the Trump administration might invest in next,

there was a report from the Wall Street Journal this week. The White House has been in talks with quantum companies as an area for investment. Some of the companies listed in the report include Rigetti Computing, Ionic, and D-Wave, with each potentially receiving at least $10 million in funding from the CHIP's Research and Development Office. The proposed deals could include warrants, licenses, revenue sharing, or even equity stakes. Now, as soon as this report was published by the Wall Street Journal, all three quantum stocks jumped on that news. But later that day, a Commerce Department official denied that talks were currently taking place. Quantum stocks gave back some of those gains, but I think investors seem to be latching onto the word currently reading it as a hands.

hint that an announcement could still come down the line. You know, there's a lot of hype right now around quantum companies, despite the industry only making like $750 million in revenue last year, according to McKinsey. That hasn't stopped investors from jumping into quantum stocks. You know, companies like Raghetti and D-Wave have more than doubled in value. And there are two big reasons why the U.S. government might be considering investing in quantum companies. For one, quantum computers can tackle problems that are impossible for traditional computers. We're talking about discovering new drugs, simulating new materials, or dramatically accelerating AI research.

And second, and arguably more important, it's a national security issue. Quantum computers threaten to upend the encryption system that currently protect everything from bank transfers and trade secrets to government communications. The current encryption methods rely on math problems that classic computers can't solve,

but quantum computers operate on an entirely different level, and in theory, quantum computers could crack today's strongest encryptions in seconds. That risk even extends to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies whose entire network depends on encryption that quantum computers can one day break. Now, today's quantum computers are still small and unstable and error prone, but I mean, that could change in the future. The industry is currently moving from a concept phase to a reality phase thanks to

breakthroughs from Google and others. So it seems like the White House is looking to participate on the upside if quantum does become a breakthrough technology. So what's the takeaway here? Well, the Trump administration is deploying a new playbook to build up strategic industries and supply chains in the U.S. They're choosing to invest directly in companies instead of handing out grants and loans. And I'm not sure how I feel about the fact that the White House has essentially become a venture capitalist firm. On one hand, I think it's very important for chip manufacturing and rare artists to be built back up in the U.S.

And it's incredibly hard for private companies to compete with companies in China that have flooded the market with low prices with backing from the Chinese government. That's essentially how China corner the rare earth market. And while the early investments from the White House has paid off on paper, you know, all the stocks have more than doubled in value, we'll have to see if the U.S. government acting as a strategic investor can actually create some long-term value and changes to supply chains. I guess the other question for investors is what industry or company is the Trump administration going to invest in next?

Everyone wants to get in on the stock before it pops. I think it's safe to say the White House will probably focus on the national security angle. So companies working on drones, the space economy, and next generation military tech could be a candidate for the next investment from the White House. We will continue to keep a close watch. But so far, the White House and the U.S. taxpayer, for that matter, has seen a pretty strong return on their portfolio this year. Well, all right, guys, that's it for today's weekend. Deep dive. Hope you guys enjoyed that one.

If you did, don't forget to drop a comment and let us know what your thoughts are on the Trump administration's investment strategy. and let us know what topics you want us to cover and future deep dive episodes. And if this is your first episode of the rundown, just a heads up, we post episodes every single day throughout the week, recapping the markets, stocks, crypto, corporate drama.

And with earnings season kicking into full gear right now, it's a great time to get subscribed for the podcast to stay in the loop. Thank you guys again for listening, watching, and commenting. Shout out to Mike and Connor for all the help behind the scenes. And we'll see you guys back here tomorrow

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