The Rundown - Deep Dive: Novo Nordisk & Eli Lilly Stumble Into Next Phase of Ozempic Era

Episode Date: August 10, 2025

Two pharma giants, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, are in a high-stakes race for leadership in the $150 billion GLP-1 obesity drug market. We examine Lilly’s latest earnings, the mixed results from its oral pill orforglipron, and Novo’s push with higher-dose oral semaglutide. We also look at how manufacturing scale, global expansion, and a growing compounding drug controversy could shape the outcome. This is the inside story of the GLP-1 wars and the companies vying to define the future of weight loss.This video is for informational purposes only and reflects the views of the host and guest, not Public Holdings or its subsidiaries. Mentions of assets are not recommendations. Investing involves risk, including loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For full disclosures, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Public.com/disclosures⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Welcome back to the rundown for another weekend deep dive. Today, we are talking about the business of weight loss. Over the past few years, GLP ones like OZemphic and Manjaro, exploded in popularity and nearly turned Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly into trillion-dollar companies. But these days, the stock price for both those companies are off their 2024 highs, and the market dynamics are shifting. Copycat weight loss drugs have popped up, and investors are eyeing the next big thing, weight loss pills.

So in today's episode, we're talking about the challenges facing Novanortis and Eli Lilly right now, why both of them are betting big on oral weight loss pills and what Wall Street is seeing about both these companies moving forward. We get a great show for you today. Let's dive in. When OZEPB came onto the scene a few years ago, it was a game changer. This drug was originally made for type 2 diabetics to help control their blood sugar, but doctors noticed that patients taking this drug were losing serious ones. weight. Now, I'm not going to get into the scientific biological details of how these GLP ones work,

but essentially they make you feel full faster and keep you full longer. For people that want to lose weight, the easiest way to do that is to consume less calories, and this drug essentially makes that happen. So by 2022, OZempic had become a viral sensation, no pun intended. Celebrities and influencers and pretty much anyone were trying to get their hands on the shot. OZepic sales exploded to $8.5 billion in 2022, with prescriptions. descriptions growing by 857% since 2019. And what's wild is that about a quarter of all OZemPEC prescriptions were issued for people without diabetes.

So Nova Nordus, the Danish company behind OZemPEC, released a special weight loss drug called WeGovie in 2021. WeGovie is essentially the same drug as OZemPEC. It's just rebranded and dose slightly differently, just focus specifically on weight loss. And the success of these drugs was huge for Nova Nordus's stock price, which jumped more than 150% from 2022 to the summer of 2024, where their market cap peaked at $640 billion. In fact, Nova Nordus briefly became the most valuable company in Europe. And this is where things get interesting.

The American pharma giant Eli Lilly entered the game in 2022. They released their own GLP1 called Manjaro for diabetics and Zepbound for weight loss. These drugs worked slightly differently than Ozempic and Weigovie, but in trials, they showed that patients lost even more weight compared to. to the Nova Nordist drugs. So not a surprise here, but both these drugs from Eli Lilly became a huge hit. And the success of these drugs pushed up Eli Lilly's stock, which shares jumping 250% from 2022 peaking in the summer of 2024.

The company's market cap hit $850 billion. But since the peak in their stock price last summer, both of these companies are facing challenges. And their stock price is in free fall. So let's talk about it. The last few months have been tough for the two pharma giants dominating GOP, but especially for Nova Nordisk. Nova Nordisk went from being the only GLP1 in town to losing the top spot to Eli Lilly. As of Q2 of 2025, Eli Lilly now has 57% of the US GLP1 market overtaking Novo for the first time. But both of these companies are dealing with challenges, including

the rise of knockoff GLP1s, which is hurting sales. See, back in 2022, We Govy, Ozempik, Manjaro, and Zepinbound were so popular that neither company could produce enough to meet the demand. the FDA added these drugs to the shortage list. When the FDA declares a drug shortage, it creates a legal loophole for compounding pharmacies to make their own copycat versions. And boy, did they take advantage of this loophole because suddenly the market was flooded with bootleg GLP ones selling for around $200 a month, which was much cheaper than the over $1,000 a month from the name brands.

Big winner in this was the telehealth company Hymns. They started selling compound GLP ones and saw a big jump in revenue and a big jump in jump in their stock price. So both Eli Lilly and NovoNortis invested tens of billions of dollars to open up factories and expand manufacturing in the U.S. And that investment eventually paid off. By early 2025, the FDA removed GLP ones from the shortage list, which would require compounding pharmacies like hymns to stop making their own copycat versions. But here's the thing, they didn't actually stop. These companies claim that their products were personalized for individual patients, and they used that as a legal loophole to keep mass producing slightly different

versions. So Eli Lilly and Nova Nortis have both called their lawyers and they're starting to sue every copycat pharmacy in sight. The fight is now dragging out in court. Nover Nortis seems to be the most impacted by this so far. In their latest earnings report from this past week, the company said that sales of OZempic and WeGovie totaled $8 billion, which is pretty good, but it was lower than what Wall Street was expecting. To make matters worse, the company cut its growth expectations moving forward, blaming the increased pressure from the copycat compounding pharmacies. That earnings report sent Nova Nordus stock down nearly 30%. So investors are clearly losing confidence in the Danish company. In fact, the company even announced they were replacing their CEO to help turn things around.

Now, Eli Lilly, on the other hand, is doing better than Nova Nordisk. In their earnings report, they said the sales of Manjaro were up 68% to $5.2 billion, and Zepin was up 172% to $3.3 billion, both beating Wall Street expectations. But their stock also dropped more than 13% after their earnings because of underwhelming trial results for their upcoming weight loss pills. So you know what? Let's talk about weight loss pills and what the future of the weight loss industry looks like. It looks like investors are already eyeing the future of weight loss, and it's not injections, but instead, weight loss pills. See, right now all these blockbuster weight loss drugs require users to inject themselves with a needle once a week. But both Eli

Lilly and Nova Nordus and many more companies are working on a once-a-day pill, which could be a game-changed, and increase the market for these weight-loss drugs. The benefits of a pill instead of an injection is pretty obvious. I think most people would rather pop a pill once a day than give themselves a shot once a week. On top of that, these pills should cost less than injections because they're going to be cheaper to manufacture and ship since they don't require refrigeration. In fact, some analysts think that the cost for these pills could be 50% less than the injections. So all of this opens the market up to millions more potential users, which are currently priced

out of the expensive injections that cost between the $50. $500 to $1,000 a month when not covered by health insurance. And that's why investors are paying close attention to the late-stage trial results of the weight loss pills in development right now. And that's the main reason why Eli Lilly's stock dropped more than 13% when they reported their acute earnings. The revenues and profits were great, but the results of their weight loss pill, which is in late-stage trials right now, was underwhelming. Patients taking the highest dose of this pill lost about 12.4% of their body weight over 72 weeks. Now that actually sounds pretty impressive to me, especially for a pill. But Wall Street wanted to see a weight loss between 13 to 15%.

Nova Nordus's weight loss pill seems to be faring a bit better. Their pills in late stage trials led to a weight loss of 13.6%. In fact, Nova Nordus has already submitted the application to the FDA for approval. And once they get approved, their wee govy and a pill could hit the market by early 2026. Eli Lilly for their part plans to file for FDA approval by the end of this year and they expect to start selling their pills in 2026 as well. So both pills. are expected to hit the market next year, kicking off a brand new arms race. And they're not going to be alone. There are 16 new obesity drugs expected by 29 from competitors like Amgen and Pfizer all trying to get a piece of the market. But not everyone on Wall Street is bullish on these

companies. So let's talk about it. So what are Wall Street analysts saying about all this? Well, their opinions are pretty mixed. The bulls are doubling down on Eli Lilly. Some are saying this company can be worth over a trillion dollars one day. Bank of America and BMO Capital, increase their price target for the stock to around $1,100 a share. And Morgan Stanley thinks that Eli Lilly's pills could do about $40 billion in revenue a year by 2033. The mood around Nova Nordus though is a bit less optimistic. There's a lot more uncertainty.

Their products continue to lose market share to Eli and copycat compounders. BMO analysts think that Nova Nordus will remain less competitive versus other peers, and they expect Eli Lilly's Manjaro and Zepbound to continue to take incremental U.S. share from Nova Nordis's Ozempic and WeGovie. And there are some that think that both companies are overvalued right now. Morningstar argues that investors might be getting a little too optimistic about how popular these weight loss drugs are going to be. And they also think that investors aren't taking into account that pricing will have to come down.

There are more companies trying to enter the space, which is going to have pricing pressure, and that's going to impact the revenues and margins of both Lilly and Nova Nordisk. And then there's like the Trump factor of all this. President Trump's recently sent a letter to 17 drug makers, including both Eli Lilly and Nova Nordus, demanding that they cut U.S. prices to match what other countries pay within 60 days. See, both these companies sell these GLP ones for a significantly lower price in Europe. So if they had to cut prices here in the U.S. because of Trump's threats,

that could end up impacting the revenues and profits of these companies as well. But that being said, the Trump administration is also reportedly planning a five-year experiment that would allow Medicare and Medicaid to cover weight loss drugs starting in 2026. And that could be huge for market. expansion for both Lilly and Nova Nordisk. As of right now, investors are taking a bit more cautious approach to both these companies. Nova Nordus's stock price is down more than 60% from its highs from last summer, and Eli Lilly's is down more than 30%. But with the pills right around the corner, the height might be back in 2026. So what's the takeaway here? Well, the weight loss

revolution is far from over, but we're entering into a new phase. The injection era made Nova Nordisk and Eli Lilly into household names and near trillion dollar companies, and while the hype has started to come down, the weight loss pill era could determine if they get back to new highs. Eli Lilly has the momentum right now, but this week's trial results for their weight loss pills were a brutal reminder that even a small miss can cost you billions of dollars in market cap. And there also might be a dark horse player that might come in and blow away the competition. Either way, 2026 is gearing up to be a pivotal year. Well, all right, guys, that's it for today's weekend, deep dive. Hope you guys enjoyed today's

episode. If you did and you want to help us out, consider subscribing to our YouTube channel and following us on Spotify. And while you guys are there, leave us a comment on YouTube and Spotify. Let us know what you thought about this episode and what topics you want us to cover in future deep dive. And for those of you guys that are just tuning in for the deep dive, just want to let you guys know that we actually do a show Monday through Friday where we recap the market and we cover all the major stories and the market movers. It's a great way to stand the loop of what's going on in the stock market. And you might even crack a smile once in a while. Thank you guys so much for listening.

watching shout out to Mike and Connor for all the work behind the scenes and we'll see you guys back here on Monday