The Rundown - Deep Dive: Robotaxis Are Coming—Here’s Who’s Leading the Charge

Episode Date: May 4, 2025

Tesla’s robotaxis are coming to Austin this summer. Waymo is already logging 250,000 driverless rides per week. And thanks to loosened U.S. regulations, the race to dominate autonomous vehicles just hit a new gear. This episode breaks down the major players and the strategies powering the self-driving future.The content of the video is for general and informational purposes only. All views presented in this show reflect the opinions of the guest and the host. You should not take a mention of any asset, be it cryptocurrency or a publicly traded security as a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that cryptocurrency or security. Guests and hosts are not affiliated with or endorsed by Public Holdings or its subsidiaries. You should make your own financial and investment decisions or consult respective professionals. Full disclosures are in the channel description. Learn more at Public.com/disclosures.Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There is a possibility of loss with any investment. Historical or hypothetical performance results, if mentioned, are presented for illustrative purposes only. Do not infer or assume that any securities, sectors or markets described in the videos were or will be profitable. Any statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements are strictly based on the current views, opinion, or assumptions of the person presenting them, and should not be taken as an indicator of performance nor should be relied upon as an investment advice.

Welcome back to the rundown for another weekend deep dive. Today, we are diving into the world of self-driving cars. There's been a ton of development lately. The U.S. government is suddenly loosening its reins on regulation. Tesla is promising robotaxies this summer. Waymo is popping up in more cities than a Starbucks. And even Uber is making some moves in the background. So are we finally on the verge of the self-driving revolution we were promised

back when smartphones still had headphone jacks? Or are we just rebooting the hype cycle once again? That's what we're talking about today? Let's dive in. Let's start by talking about the regulatory environment because there was a big regulatory shift recently that you probably scrolled right past. Last week, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration,

or the NHTSA, rolled out a new framework for self-driving cars. The first thing they did was expand the automated vehicle exemption program, which is basically like a permanent. mission slip that lets car makers test vehicles without things like steering wheels or brake pedals. It's usually used for research purposes, and up until recently, only foreign companies could really take advantage of this exemption. But now with the new rural US companies like Tesla can apply for this exemption too, which is huge, especially for Tesla, because remember, their upcoming cyber cab doesn't plan on having a steering wheel on purpose. Still not sure if that's

going to work, but that's what the company's vision is. The NHT, NHTSA also loosened crash reporting requirements. See, before AV companies had to report serious crashes within one day, now they have up until five days to report the crash. The NHTSA also scrapped the monthly reporting rules unless something actually happens. So all of this means less red tape and regulation for autonomous vehicle companies. It looks like the U.S. government is eager to clear the road, figuratively speaking, for self-driving cars.

And this is a huge news for a company like Tesla. kind of staking the entire future of their company on self-driving tech. That's why Tesla stock was up big when these new rules were announced. Tesla has some big plans coming up when it comes to self-driving, and they have a lot of critics as well. So let's talk more about Tesla. You know, Tesla has been hyping up self-driving tech for years now. Elon's been talking about it for like a decade. They started installing self-driving hardware in their cars as far back as 2019. But to this day, Tesla still hasn't delivered a full autonomous driving experience. Now, don't get me wrong, wrong, Tesla's full self-driving tech is pretty impressive. I've used it in my Tesla. And yeah,

it's great, but it still requires the driver to pay attention. You can't just click a button and start watching Netflix. Well, Tesla is finally ready to take the big leap this summer. Tesla is going to be testing robotaxies in Austin, Texas. They're planning to start small with 10 to 20 model-wise driving around Austin. And according to multiple reports, it won't be completely unsupervised just yet. There is going to be a human safety driver behind the wheel ready to take over in case of emergencies. But Tesla says this is the first step towards fully autonomous driving. But see, Tesla's self-driving ambition has a lot of haters and skeptics,

and it has to do with their vision-only system. Tesla's self-driving tech relies purely on cameras and AI. There's no LiDAR, no radar, no safety sensors, and that's a totally different approach from companies like Waymo, which load their vehicles up with every safety sensor imaginable. I mean, just go to Google images and look about Waymo, car. It's decked out with sensors. But see, Elon's been anti-LIDAR for years now, mostly because of its higher costs. He doesn't want to add LiDAR to Tesla's to keep costs down. But critics say that

not having these sensors is reckless, and that's why this Austin pilot program is such a big deal. If Tesla can prove their tech works without the LiDAR or radar, then they could leapfrog their competition with a much cheaper setup. Tesla's self-driving hardware reportedly costs around $2,000 to $4,000 per car. If you compare that to Waymo's setup, that runs between $50,000 to $100,000. That's just for the safety sensors. But see, here's the thing, while Tesla is still gearing up to launch their fully autonomous cars, Waymo's been doing it for years now.

They've been driving around all over the country without anyone behind the wheel. So let's talk more about Waymo and what their plans are for self-driving and how it's a similar playbook to Android. While Tesla is great at generating headlines and hype, Waymo has a lot. has quietly spent the last few years actually doing some self-driving. Now, Waymo is owned by Google, and they started developing this tech all the way back in 2009. Fast forward to today, and Waymo is doing over 250,000 fully autonomous rides per week. That's without a safety driver.

When you get into a Waymo, it's just you, the car, and the algorithm driving it. And they've been doing this for a while now. They started offering self-driving cars in Phoenix back in 2019, then expanded. to San Francisco in 2022, then LA in 2024, and they recently just launched in Austin this past March. And they're not slowing down. They're planning to expand to Atlanta this summer, and then Miami and Washington, D.C. are on deck for 2026. It to me, it's genuinely impressive that people are using robot cars in these cities for commuting, running errands, going out to dinner. Just go watch a video of someone riding away, Mo. It's both amazing and a little terrifying, if I'm being

honest, I can't wait to take a ride in one myself. Now, as we mentioned earlier, Waymo's vehicles are loaded out with sensors, LiDAR, radar, cameras, you name it. And the hardware alone is estimated to cost up to $100,000. And that's why Waymo owns and operates the entire fleet itself. It's just not practical for most people to buy a six-figure robot car. But Waymo announced a partnership recently that might signal what they're thinking about for the future. Waymo announced a preliminary deal with Toyota, the world's largest automaker, to bring Waymo's self-driving tech to Toyota cars in the future. And I think that's Waymo's bigger plan. They want to become the Android of self-driving cars. They want to let the automakers build the cars, and then Waymo provides

the operating system. It's the same strategy they use with Android. Android today is the most popular smartphone operating system in the world. So maybe the future that Waymo is envisioning is that every car in the world is powered by Waymo's self-driving tech. And that way, Google can potentially sell us more ads. Just hope my YouTube premium subscription will work on my car in the future. Now, a company that I think could surprise everyone here is Uber. See, Uber tried to build their own self-driving tech themselves back in 2015. And it didn't go so great for many reasons. There's a lot of drama and some corporate espionage involved. So they had to shut that down in 2020 and decided to pivot their strategy into partnerships. Uber is trying to try to,

trying to partner with every self-driving company in the world. Like today, you can book a Waymo ride directly through the Uber app in Phoenix and Austin. On top of that, Uber just signed a multi-year deal with a company called May Mobility to launch thousands of autonomous shuttles. They're going to start in Arlington, Texas. And they're also going international with this strategy as well. Uber announced a partnership with the Chinese company Momenta to launch Robo Taxis in Europe next year. Mementa has been operating robot taxis in China since 2020.

and they're ready to take this tech to Europe now, and they're doing it with the partnership with Uber. So the strategy is clear. Uber wants all the major self-driving players on their app. And honestly, it makes a ton of sense for all sides here. Every minute a Robo Taxi isn't being used, it's losing money. So being on Uber's platform helps these companies maximize utilization and revenue. See, Uber has the demand for riders.

If you're going from point A to point D, you're likely opening up the Uber app. And whether a human or robot shows up, at some point, most people won't care. In fact, I think some people might prefer the robot just to avoid the awkward four-second small talk with the Uber driver. So win-win for everybody here. And it gives Uber massive flexibility because they can't lose. They don't need to pick a winner. This way, they're essentially betting on all the horses in the race. Now, there is one big risk here.

If Waymo or other self-driving companies get big enough to where they end up ditching Uber altogether and launching their own competing app. In fact, Waymo does have their own app. So that would blow up Uber's whole aggregator model. But for now, Uber's playing it cool. They're making deals. And they're quietly positioning themselves as the go-to platform for self-driving. I've been pretty skeptical of self-driving cars for a long time now. But I think the self-driving future is closer than ever.

The tech seems to be nearly there. And all the major players seem to have a strategy on how to bring this to market. Tesla seems to be going full Apple. They're controlling the hardware, the software, the entire experience. And they're doing it without expensive equipment like LIDAR or Radar in the hopes of keeping their cars affordable for the mass market. Waymo, on the other hand, is taking the Android route. They're focusing on partnership and licensing their self-driving tech with automakers to become

the operating system. And then there's Uber. They're trying to be like Amazon. They want to be the platform you use to access these robo taxis, regardless of who builds the car. And you know what? I don't think this will be a winner-take-all market. Each company could end up dominating a different layer of the stack.

Like in smartphones today, Apple and Android both won. Maybe the same thing will happen with self-driving cars. We'll have Tesla's doing their own thing while every other automaker in the world is running on Waymo's self-driving tech. And with the US government easing up on regulations, self-driving cars might finally start living up to the hype. Well, all right, guys, that's it for today's weekend, deep dive. Hope you guys like that breakdown of the self-driving industry. If you did and you have like 12 extra seconds,

consider giving us a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And let us know in the comments what topics you think we should cover in future deep dive episodes. By the way, we are cooking up a Palantir episode. I know a lot of you guys have asked us for it. So keep an eye out for that. Thank you guys again for listening and spending a part of your weekend with us.

Shout out to Mike and Connor for all the help behind the scenes. And we'll see you guys back here on Monday.