The Rundown - Oracle Shares Nosedive on Sales Miss, OpenAI Makes $1B Deal For Disney Character Rights

Episode Date: December 11, 2025

Market update for December 11, 2025Follow us on Instagram (⁠@TheRundownDaily⁠) for bonus content and instant reactions.Today we break down:Fed cuts rates by 25 bpsOracle misses the mark on sales expectationsDisney signs a $1B deal with OpenAIEli Lilly sees trial success with new weight-loss drug

Public.com presents the rundown. Your daily market update in under 10 minutes. My name is Zaid Admani, and today is Thursday, December 11th. In today's episode, we'll recap the Fed meeting and what Jerome Powell said that caused the markets to rally. We'll also break down Oracle's earnings and tell you why investors are freaking out. Then stick around to the end of the show to find out why Elon Musk might become a trillionaire in 2026. We got a great show for you today. Let's go.

The markets got a nice boost on Wednesday following the Fed meeting. The NASDAQ jumped 0.3% while the S&P added 0.7% and came within 4 points of a record close. And I got a shout out to Russell 2000. It jumped 1.3% and did close at record highs. Now, I'm not going to lie, I was kind of surprised to see the markets rally after the Fed meeting. The Fed did cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. But there seems to be some disagreement within the Fed right now. There were two Fed officials that voted against a rate cut at this meeting,

while one Fed official voted for a 50 basis point cut. So there is growing disagreement within the Fed on what to do with the economy and interest rates moving forward. But listening to Jerome Powell in this press conference, he did leave the door open for additional rate cuts in 2026. And I think that might be why the markets rally. Jerome Powell spent a lot of time talking about the weakening list. labor market, and he made it clear that if the job data continues to soften, that the Fed may need to continue to cut rates. Now, don't forget, Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair ends in May,

and President Trump has already hinted that his likely successor will be Kevin Hassett, who recently said that he thinks that rates could go even lower. But I mean, stepping back, though, the Fed isn't a tough spot right now. Remember, their job is to keep inflation low and employment high. And right now, we're kind of in that weird situation where inflation keeps creeping back up. It's been pretty sticky while the labor market continues to weaken. So the Fed will have to decide on which metric they want to prioritize more. Right now, the priority seems to be the labor market. But if inflation starts creeping back up again, maybe those priorities will change. So we'll have to see how this all plays out in the markets for the rest of the year.

Now, the markets did get a short-term bump yesterday, but I'm looking at the pre-market numbers right now and it seems to be read across the board. And that kind of matches what happened at the last Fed meeting. Remember, the stock market went on a multi-week slide after the last meeting in October after digesting all the information. And that might happen again this time. As always, we're going to stay on top of all the developments, so make sure you guys are subscribed to the podcast and tuning in every day to stay in the loop. Let's run through some headlines, starting with Oracle. Oracle reported earnings last night, and the markets did not like what they heard. Oracle stock is getting hammered this morning after they reported weaker than expected revenues

despite massive demand for their AI infrastructure business. Cloud revenues for the quarter grew 34% to $8 billion. And Oracle's cloud infrastructure segment, which is the piece that powers the AI workloads, jumped 68% to $4.1 billion. But both those numbers miss analyst estimates, which is raising concerns that Oracle's huge AI buildout isn't turning into revenue as fast as investors at hope. And this buildout is getting very expensive. Oracle now expects to spend $50 billion in CAPEX this fiscal year, which is more than $15 billion

more than they had projected back in September. Now, most of that money is going towards buying servers, GPUs, and networking equipment inside their new data centers, which the company says it needs to keep up with the AI demand. The one bright spot on Oracle's earnings, though, was their remaining performance obligation, which is a measure of their backlog. That grew to $523 billion, which is up about $68 billion from the previous quarter and more than 5x from a year ago. The company says their RPO was driven by new commitments from meta and VVVVILB.

and others. And of course, Oracle's biggest customer is Open AI, which is committed to spend up to $300 billion over the next five years. But that's also becoming a problem because investors are worried that Oracle is going to be too dependent on Open AI's success. If Open AI doesn't live up to expectations or have their growth stunted because of the rise of Google's Gemini, that could be a huge problem for Oracle. Add in the fact that Oracle's free cash flow was negative $10 billion in the last quarter, and they're now carrying a debt of over $106 billion, you can see why investment. You can see why are getting freaked out. You know, Oracle was really the first big tech company to take on a ton of debt for their AI investments. And at first, investors were okay with it, but the vibe has definitely

shifted now. Oracle stock is down 15% this morning following their earnings, and it's down more than 40% from its peak back in September. We're actually going to take a deeper look into Oracle's business on this weekend's deep dive episode, so stay tuned for that. If Oracle's stock keeps sliding like this, Larry Ellison's son might not be able to buy Warner Brothers anymore. Now, speaking of media companies in AI. Let's talk about Disney because they just announced that they're investing a billion dollars into Open AI. And with this investment, they're also allowing their iconic Disney characters to be AI generated through Open AI SORA app. So that means that soon you'll be able to generate AI slot videos of Mickey Mouse, Cinderella, Marvel superheroes, Pixar characters, and also Star Wars.

I think as a consumer and a dad, I'm excited about this because I'll be able to cook up AI videos of my daughter swimming with Moana. That sounds pretty fun. But, I'm kind of surprised that Disney is doing this in the first place. I feel like AI slot videos of their characters could hurt their iconic brand. Maybe Open AI is paying them a lot of money to license these characters. Maybe Disney's going to start charging people money to make AI videos of their IP. But I don't think the tradeoff would be worth it. Now, it's possible that Disney CEO Bob Eiger thinks that AI is just inevitable and he'd rather

make some money from it and have some sort of control instead of it just letting it run wild. I'm still waiting to hear on what Disney's thought process was about this partnership. This news just broke a few minutes ago, so we'll update you once we learn more. But I don't know, let me know in the comments of what you guys think about Disney investing into Open AI and how you feel about making AI videos of their characters on SORA. By the way, I haven't opened up the SORA app in weeks. I feel like that hype died down pretty fast. Let's talk about some stocks making moves today.

Eli Lilly's shares are climbing this morning after their next generation weight loss drug, Rattetta tried, crushed expectations in late-stage strut. Patients lost an average of 23.7% of their body weight and 68 weeks. But on top of the weight loss, the drug also helped patients with arthritis pain, with the trial showing a nearly 63% reduction in knee pain. I mean, Eli Lilly was already the king of weight loss drugs, with their tresepetized drugs Zephound and Manjaro being market leaders right now. The success of those drugs have pushed Eli Lilly's market cap to over $1 trillion.

And now they're already cooking up something better that also helps with knee pain. I mean, you can see why investors are excited right now. Eli Lilly's stock is up more than 2% this morning in reaction to this news. Honestly, surprise, it's not up even more. Now, on the flip side, Oxford Industry shares are getting slammed this morning down more than 20% after the apparel company slashed its annual guidance. Again, this time they're blaming tariffs for squeezing margins. Oxford Industries owns a bunch of clothing retailer chains, including Tommy Bahama, Southern Tide, and more.

Companies now cut its annual guidance by more than 50% since the beginning of the year. note, are people still rocking Tommy Bahamas? Because I don't think I've seen anyone wear that in a long time. Let's wrap the show with the fun fact. SpaceX is now the most valuable private company in the world. Space company led by Elon Musk recently sold shares to private investors at an $800 billion valuation, making them more valuable than OpenAI, which was recently valued at $500 billion. Now, it's pretty wild to see a private company valued at nearly a trillion dollars. But, of course, According to multiple reports, SpaceX might not be private for much longer. They're looking to IPO in the second half of 2026. In fact, Elon kind of confirmed this himself on X yesterday.

And you know, I have a feeling this IPO is going to have so much demand. It might end up being the biggest IPO of all time. Not only is there the Elon factor, but space is a sexy industry in general. And Space X is the leading company in that space. No pun intended. Right now, SpaceX is on track to make over $15 billion in. revenue this year, thanks in large part to their Starlink satellite business, which provides really good internet pretty much anywhere in the world through satellites. So yeah, there's going to be

huge demand for the SpaceX IPO. Bloomberg estimates that SpaceX could IPO at a $1.5 trillion valuation. And if that happens, it could open the door for Elon Musk to become the world's first trillionaire. See, Elon owns approximately 42% of SpaceX. So SpaceX gets to the $1.5 trillion dollar valuation after its IPO, that would make Elon's stake worth nearly $625 billion. You add that to the stake that he owns of Tesla and X, his net worth would be around $950 billion, according to Bloomberg. So he'd be like one good week away from hitting the trillionaire status. Well, all right, guys, that's the rundown for today. Hope you guys enjoyed today's episode.

If you did, and you have like five extra seconds, consider giving us a five-star rating on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, wherever you listen to your podcast. And if you are listening on Spotify, don't forget to vote in today's Spotify poll. Leave us a comment on Spotify. All that engagement really does help us out, and it helps other people find the show. If you're watching the video version of this episode, you can tell that I'm not in my normal setting. I'm actually in New York right now for the rest of the week. I'm going to be hanging out with Mike and Connor.

If you guys have any fun New York City recommendations to do in the holidays, also drop those in the comments as well. Thank you guys again for listening, watching, and commenting. Shout out to Mike and Connor. for all the work behind the scenes. And we'll see you guys back here tomorrow. Rosen lasagna, medium power, 15 minutes. Sounds like Ojo time. Let's play.

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