The Rundown - PayPal Draws Takeover Interest, Circle Surges on Earnings

Episode Date: February 25, 2026

Market update for Wednesday February 25, 2026Check out the Public app for incredible investing tools and to support the show (LINK)Follow us on Instagram (@TheRundownDaily) for bonus content and instant reactions.In today’s episode:Stripe reportedly considers acquiring PayPal after its stock slumpCircle stock surges after crushing earnings and strong USDC growthCava jumps on surprise same-store sales growthLucid slides after a wide earnings miss and continued cash burnApple plans to manufacture Mac Mini in Houston

Public.com presents the rundown. Your daily market update in under 10 minutes. My name is Zadadmani, and today is Wednesday, February 25th. In today's episode, we'll tell you why PayPal might get acquired soon. Then we'll break down earnings from Circle, Kava, and Lucid. Then stick around to the end of the show to find out why Apple is bringing manufacturing to my hometown of Houston, Texas. We got a great show for you today.

Let's go. Markets bounced back on Tuesday with the S&P 500 rising 0.8%. And the NASDAG gained 1%, pretty much making up for all the losses from Monday. Yesterday was a broad-based rally. Over 350 stocks in the S&P were in the green, and nine out of the 11 sectors were also up. So the vibes were good yesterday,

and one of the best performing stocks was a, which jumped 9% after announcing a massive $100 billion chip deal with meta. I broke down that deal on yesterday's show, so go check that out if you missed it. Now, software stocks also moved higher yesterday, this time thanks to Anthropic. Anthropic held an event yesterday, and they said they planned to partner with existing software companies and, you know, not destroy them like everyone thought was going to happen. So it was nice to see an Anthropic-related headline help the stock market and not cause a crash. And hopefully this will calm some of the AI panic that we've seen over the last few weeks.

Now, speaking of AI, today is a big day because Nvidia reports earnings after the bell. You know, with the AI trade wobbling these days, investors are going to want to see blowout earning. So expectations are going to be high. You know, fun fact about Nvidia, their stock has only gone up 7% in the last six months. So not a lot of movement there. We'll see if Nvidia's stock and the overall market gets a boost after the numbers drop. I'm really curious to see what his CEO Jensen Huang has to say on the earnings call.

We'll recap all that stuff on tomorrow's show, so make sure you guys tune in for that. Let's run through some headlines, starting with PayPal. PayPal is going through a rough stretch right now. The stock has lost nearly half its value over the last year. They just fired their CEO at their poor Q4 earnings. Payment volumes are slowing down from competition from Apple Pay, Google Pay, and Shop Pay. So the vibes are not good for one of the most iconic internet companies in history. But because of the slide in the company's stock, they've now become a potential takeover target.

According to Bloomberg, PayPal has been taking meetings with banks after receiving interest from multiple potential buyers. At least one buyer is looking at buying the whole company while others are only interested in certain PayPal assets. One of the companies interested in buying PayPal seems to be Stripe. Stripe is an online payment processing company. They're essentially like a key financial infrastructure for the internet. And they're one of the most valuable private companies in the world. In fact, just recently, the company was valued at $159 billion after an employee tender offer, which is when a company gives existing shareholders a chance to cash out,

some or all of their stock to the company, or a third-party investor. Now, talks between Stripe and PayPal are still in the early stages, but adding PayPal could be a huge get for Stripe. Despite all the issues that I just outlined, PayPal is still one of the most recognizable payment networks in the world. They process almost $2 trillion in annual transaction volumes. They also own Venmo, which is the most popular peer-to-peer payment app in the U.S. So yeah, big picture, PayPal might be getting acquired soon.

Would be interesting to see if Stripe ends up buying them. I kind of think that Apple should consider making a move here, too. Let's stick with the fintech theme and talk about Circle. Circle is the company behind the stable coin USDC. It's the second largest stable coin in the world, and they just delivered a monster earnings report beating on both revenue and profit estimates. Revenue in Q4 jumped 77% to $770 million, and earnings came in at $43 per share, crushing estimates of 16 cents. The bright spot here is that stable coin adoption has been picking up.

The amount of USDC in circulation surged 72% to $75.3 billion, and that's key to Circle's business model. See, Circle makes money by holding U.S. treasuries in reserve to back every token in circulation, and they pocket the interest on the U.S. treasuries that are in their reserves. So the more U.S.D.C. in circulation, the more treasuries that Circle buys and the more money that they make. I think the most interesting and encouraging part about Circle's earnings is that despite the overall crypto market being in a slump, you know, Bitcoin is down 50% from its October highs, that hasn't impacted the adoption of stable coins. The beauty of Circle's business model is that their business isn't impacted on the price of crypto. They make money as long as people continue to use

USDC for payments, trading, and moving money around the blockchain. And the company's also trying to become more than just a stable coin issuer. They got conditional approval to become a national trust bank. They're building out payment networks with 55 financial institutions. And they're projecting 150 to 170 million dollars in non-interest revenue this year. So they're actively diversifying their business. Investors were loving this report. Circle stock is getting a big boost this morning up more than 20% at the time of this recording. And you know, the stock really needs to be. needed this because shares had fallen 75% from their all-time highs. Let's talk about some stocks making moves today.

Shares of Kava are popping this morning after the Mediterranean fast casual chain delivered a surprise in its fourth quarter earnings. The company reported same store sales growth of 0.5% in Q4, which was a surprise because Wall Street was expecting a 1% decline. For the full year, 2025 same store sales were up full. percent and revenues topped $1 billion for the first time in the company's history. Now, here's the thing. A lot of that growth came from menu price increases and not more people walking through

the door. Kava raised prices about 1.7% in 2025. And same stores traffic actually fell 1.4% in Q4. So Kava has fewer customers coming in, but those customers are just paying more when they do come in. So that could be a problem long term. We'll see how much Kava customers are willing to put up with the menu price increases, especially as other food places like McDonald's and Taco Bell are leaning harder into value.

Kava management doesn't seem to be too concerned, though. In fact, they're expecting same store sales growth of 3 to 5% in 2026, and they plan to open up to 76 new locations. As a result, Kava stock is up more than 10% this morning at the time of this recording. Now, on the flip side, Lucid is having a rough morning after the EV maker widely missed earnings expectations in Q4. Now, their revenues did beat estimates coming in that 5. $523 million, which was up double year over year.

But the bigger issue is production and profitability. The number that stuck out to me was that Lucid burned through $2.7 billion in 2025, and they still have no timeline to reach profitability. The company also just laid off 12% of its U.S. salaried workforce to try to cut costs and improve their margins. Now, their balance sheet has about $4.6 billion of liquidity, so they're not going to be going bankrupt anytime soon. But the clock is ticking. The one bright spot for Lucid is their 2026. Outlook, Lucid is guiding for 25,000 to 27,000 vehicles this year, which would be a 40 to 50% jump

from 2025. The company says that their gravity SUV is expected to drive most of that growth. But, you know, investors aren't as optimistic. Lucid shares are down more than 4% this morning at the time of this recording. You know, I actually saw a Lucid driving through my neighborhood the other day. I hadn't seen one in person in a while. And I got to say, man, it's a nice looking car. Let's wrap the show with a fun fact. is planning to manufacture their Mac mini computers right here in my hometown of Houston, Texas.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Apple is moving some of their production of their Mac mini computers from Asia to a Foxcon facility in North Houston. Apple's converting a 220,000 square foot warehouse into manufacturing space with production starting later this year. This move is part of Apple's broader pledge to invest $600 billion in the U.S. over the next four years. Apple made this pledge last year after they got pressure from the Trump administration to restore more manufacturing in exchange for tariff relief. So Apple is getting tariff exemptions on their other products for, you know, moving Mac Mini productions here in the U.S. The thing is, the Mac Mini is a pretty niche product. It accounts for less than 5% of Mac sales

and less than 1% of Apple's total revenue. But honestly, it's one of my favorite Apple products. I own two of them. It's a cute little computer that's very powerful and sold at a pretty good price, which is rare to say about Apple products, you know? Big picture, though, I don't see Apple making iPhones or their other popular products in the U.S. anytime soon. Now, Apple did say they're also expanding the Houston facility to include a new training center for advanced manufacturing. Not really sure what that means, but we'll see. So yeah, shout out to Houston. I want to visit one of these manufacturing places. If someone listening can hook it up, shoot me an email or DM. Also, I think we need to seriously consider changing Houston's name from Space City to Chip City.

Well, all right, guys, that's the rundown for today. Hope you guys enjoyed today's episode. If you did, and you have like five extra seconds, consider giving us a five-star rating on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, wherever you listen to your podcast. If you are listening on Spotify, don't forget to vote in today's Spotify poll. Leave us a comment on Spotify. All that engagement really does help us out, and it helps other people. find the show. Thank you guys so much for listening, watching, and commenting. Shout out to Mike

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