The Rundown - SpaceX Joins Nasdaq 100 Index, Samsung Profits Surge 19x

Episode Date: July 7, 2026

Market update for July 7, 2026.Check out the Public app for incredible investing tools and to support the show (LINK)Follow us on Instagram (@TheRundownDaily) for bonus content and instant reactions.In today’s episode, Zaid covers:Oil prices falling near pre-war levels as Wall Street worries about oversupplySamsung's profit jumped 1,800%... so why did the stock tank?SpaceX joining the Nasdaq-100 less than a month after its IPOFiserv popping on talks to sell its debit-card networkRivian drops after a share offeringNetflix’s season-two problem as major shows lose huge chunks of their audience

Public.com presents the rundown. Your daily market update in 10 minutes. My name is Zadadmani, and today is Tuesday, July 7th. In today's episode, we'll tell you why there's suddenly too much oil in the world. We'll also recap Samsung's monster earnings and why the stocks still tanked. Then stick around to the end of the show to find out why Netflix viewers aren't sticking around for season two. We got a great show for you today. Let's go.

Stocks kicked off the week in rally mode. The S&P 500 added 0.7% while the NASDAQ jumped 1.1%. And it was another one of those days where more than half the stocks in the S&P were in the red, but the index finished higher because tech stocks carried the day. Names like Tesla, AMD, and Qualcomm

were up more than 5% on Monday. Now, this morning AI stocks are giving back some of those gains from yesterday. because of Samsung's earnings, but we'll talk more about that in a bit. Outside of stocks, the big macro story to watch right now is oil. Oil prices have fallen to near pre-war levels, and some on Wall Street are now concerned that we might have too much oil in the market. Just three months ago, oil prices were at $120 a barrel because of the Iran war

had effectively shut down this trade of Hormuz, causing a supply crunch. But now the U.S. and Iran have an interim deal in place, and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is picking back up, which, means a bunch of that oil that had been trapped during the war is now hitting the market. And then on top of that, you have OPEG plus countries raising production. They just agreed to raise output for the fifth straight month. So that's creating a scenario where there's a ton of oil hitting the market at the same time, but the demand hasn't returned to pre-war levels.

China is a big reason for that. They cut their oil imports by 5 million barrels a day during the war, and they haven't started buying more oil despite the lower prices. And here's the stat that tells you how oversupplied things are right now. Saudi Arabia just cut oil prices for Asian buyers by $11 a barrel. That's the biggest monthly price cut Aramco has done since at least the year 2000, and now Saudi Arabia is selling their oil at a discount to the regional benchmark. So when Saudi Arabia starts discounting their oil like it's T.J. Max or something,

you know the oil market has flipped. Now, I have to mention this is still a fragile situation. In fact, there were reports this morning that two commercial tankers were hit near the Strait of Hormuz, with U.S. officials blaming Iran. So, geopolitical risk has not disappeared, but the market reaction was pretty muted. Oil prices barely moved on the headline, which tells you that traders are more focused on the oversupply issue than the escalation. Now, as far as what this means for the economy, in the short term, cheaper oil should be good

news for consumers and help cool off inflation. And it's a nice gift for Fed shirt Kevin Warsh as well, because now the Fed could potentially hold off on hiking rates. So we'll continue to stay on top of the oil prices, inflation, and everything else moving in the market. So if you're new here, definitely get subscribed to the podcast and tune in every day to stay in the loop. Let's run through some headlines, starting with Samsung. Samsung reported one of the most absurd earnings you'll ever see, but yet the stock tanked, and it's bringing down the overall market with it.

The South Korean company said that operating profits for the second quarter came in at around 89.4 trillion won, which is about 58 billion US dollars. That number is up 56% from the previous quarter and roughly 19 times higher than the same period last year. Also, the company's revenues more than doubled from a year ago as well to a record $112 billion. So again, those numbers are absolutely insane and the driver here is the huge demand for memory chips. Samsung is one of the three major makers of memory chips in the world, and the AI boom has led to a huge shortage of memory. You know, all these AI data centers being built require a ton of high bandwidth memory. So that's pushing up prices of all types of memory across the board.

Bloomberg says that DRAM prices rose more than 40% last quarter, while NAN prices jumped more than 50%. And look, that's been great for Samsung's business, as we can see in their earnings report, but despite the monster quarter, Samsung's stock fell around 7% in the Korean stock exchange. today. And that sell-off in Samsung stock is dragging down chip stocks here in the U.S. too. Micron stock is down around 8% and Intel is down around 10% at the time of this recording. You know, I think we've hit the point now where all the upside in these chip stocks are already priced in. Samsung stock had already more than doubled this year, so expectations

were sky high. And according to Bloomberg, Samsung only beat analyst estimates by about 6%. Also, there seems to be growing concern with the amount of spending that Samsung is planning to do. They're planning to spend around $70 billion in CAPEX this year alone to increase memory supply. So that could mean that the memory supply shortage today could turn into a supply glut in the near future, which is something the memory industry has done in the past. So that's definitely something to keep an eye on right now. The memory story seems to be driving the overall direction of the market these days. By the way, the other Korean memory giant S.K. Heynix is listing their shares in the

the U.S. this Friday to raise $29 billion. We're going to talk more about that later in the week. Let's shift gears and talk about SpaceX. SpaceX stock is now officially part of the NASDAQ 100 index, less than a month after their historic IPO, making it one of the fastest inclusions ever. So that means that all the ETFs and funds that track the NASDAQ 100 index, like the QQQ and many others, are forced to buy SpaceX stock

so that their holdings continue to mirror the index. J.P. Morgan estimates that this inclusion could it trigger about $4.3 billion in passive buying of SpaceX stock. So if you own one of these funds or ETFs like I do, congrats. You now own SpaceX. But look, SpaceX's influence on the NASDAQ will be relatively small. Despite being a $2 trillion company in the six largest company in the U.S., SpaceX shares will only carry about a 1% weight on the index. So that means that for every $100 that you own in a NASDAQ 100 fund, you'd own about a dollar worth of SpaceX stock. And the reason for the relatively small weight is because the NASDAQ 100 weight is based on free float,

which basically means how many shares are actually available to trade. SpaceX IPOed at a relatively small float. They only sold about 5% of its shares in the IPO. Most of the stock is still locked up with insiders, employees, and early investors. So the NASDAQ index is treating SpaceX more like a $300 billion company, and that's why it won't have much influence in the direction of the NASDAQ 100 index for now. As more shares become available to trade, SpaceX's influence on the NASDAQ 100 index will grow. FYI, about 20% more SpaceX shares will hit the market in late July. SpaceX shares are down about 5% this morning, probably because this

NASDAQ inclusion was already priced in weeks ago. Now, SpaceX will have to wait at least a year and show that they're profitable before they get considered to be added to the S&P 500 and down. Let's talk about some stocks making moves today. Shares of the payment tech company Fiserv are popping this morning after a report that some of the biggest banks in America want to buy a piece of this company. Fiserve owns the tech infrastructure that helps move money between banks, merchants, and consumers. Their Star Network serves more than 150 million debit cardholders and works with more than 2,800 financial institutions. Well, now, according to the Wall Street Journal, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and PNC have all held preliminary talks to acquire that

debit network from Fizzar. And the reason that these banks want to buy this network is because of fees and a loophole in the law. There's a federal law called the Durbin Amendment that caps the fees that big banks can collect from merchants on debit card transactions, but only if that transaction is routed through an outside network. If the bank owns that debit card network, they're exempt. from that fee cap. Now, to be clear, the talks are still very early. There's no guarantee this

deal will happen. And sub-banks are actually worried that this could trigger a backlash from lawmakers, regulators, and merchants. But FISERV investors are excited about a potential sale and shares are up around 5% this morning at the time of this recording. I mean, the FISRV could definitely use a win right now because the stock has lost about 70% of its value over the last year. Moving on, let's talk about Rivian. Their shares are dropping this morning after the EV company announced plans to sell 75 million new shares. I mean, the timing here makes sense because Rivian stock had been on a hot streak lately. It's up 23% in the past month, thanks to strong delivery numbers and the launch of their cheaper R2 SUV. But the problem for Rivian is that they still aren't profitable,

so they need cash. Wall Street estimates expect they'll need about $8 billion through the end of 2028, and they currently only have $4.8 billion on hand right now. The company is selling their stock to cash in on the stock rally while I can, raising roughly $1.5 billion in the process. But as you guys know, selling stock dilutes existing shareholders. And that's why Rivian stock is down around 10% this morning at the time of this recording. Let's wrap the show with a fun fact. Some of Netflix's biggest shows are losing more than half their audience by season two. According to Bloomberg, shows like the Knight Agent lost 50% of their audience in season two, and then another 35, percent for season three. Other hit shows like beef lost 70 percent. Even One Piece, which is one of

Netflix's most watched shows ever, lost 30 percent of its audience for season two. And this is now starting to become a real problem for Netflix because back in the old school TV days, shows would get bigger over time because of word of mouth. Netflix is seeing the opposite. Bloomberg says that total amount of time people spent watching Netflix grew less than 2 percent last year. And investors are starting to take notice. Netflix stock is down around 6. 17% this year and 40% over the last 12 months. Personally, I feel like Netflix needs to start releasing shows weekly instead of doing a full season drop like they currently do.

And they need to stop waiting like two to three years before releasing the next season as well. There's just too much content out there right now and people will move on to other things that they have to wait two years before the season two comes out. Let me know what you guys think. Do you think that Netflix needs to change their strategy or do they just need to make better shows? Let me know in the comments. Well, all right, guys.

the rundown for today. Hope you guys enjoyed today's episode. Thank you guys so much for listening, watching, and commenting. Shout out to Mike for all the work behind the scenes. And we'll see you guys back here tomorrow.