The Rundown - Stocks Whipsaw on Tariff Drama, Trump Loses Support on Wall St.

Episode Date: April 7, 2025

Stock market update for April 7, 2025.

Public.com presents the rundown. Your daily market update in five minutes. My name is Zaid Admani, and today is Monday, April 7th. In today's episode, we talk about the fallout from Trump's tariffs. Markets haven't dropped like this since COVID. Wall Street is expecting a recession, and Trump is starting to lose support from all sides, including his BFF. We also talk about the impact that the market turmoil is having on the IPO market

and why some companies are deciding to hit pause. Then stick around to the end of the show to find out what CEOs are saying about these tariffs and why some are expecting job cuts as soon as this year. We have a great show for you today. Let's go. Last week might go down as one of the craziest weeks ever for the stock market. The markets have been in free fall since President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on April 2nd. The S&P 500 dropped 9% and the NASDAQ lost $1.000.

10% most of that happening over a two-day span on Thursday and Friday. That would make last week the worst week for the stock market since March of 2020, which was literally peak COVID. The NASDAQ has officially fallen into a bare market down more than 20% from its highs. The S&P is getting pretty close to that as well. And this sell-off is happening across the board among all assets. Bitcoin is down 10% to $75,000. Gold has dropped 5% since last week. Oil is down 13% because of concerns over lower demand and more supply hitting the market. So investors are in full on panic mode. Now, everyone is hoping to hear something positive from the White House this week to stop

the bleeding. But Trump doesn't seem to be backing down on these tariffs. Check out what he had to say over the weekend. I don't want anything to go down. But sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something. And we have such a horrible, we have been treated so badly by other. countries because we had stupid leadership that allowed this to happen. They took our businesses, they took our money, they took our jobs, they moved it to Mexico, they moved it to Canada,

they moved a lot of it to China, and it's not sustainable. We're not going to do it. Now we have hundreds of billions of dollars this pouring into our country on a monthly basis. It's pouring, it's already started because they put tariffs on and eventually it's going to straighten out and our country will be solid and strong again. So yeah, guys, we might be in for another rough week. Now, what's interesting is the markets did shoot up on Monday morning because of rumors that Trump would do a 90-day pause on all tariffs, but then the White House quickly shot that rumor down

and the markets are back deep into the red. What a wild ride. Now, amongst all this market turmoil, we're about to enter earnings season. It kicks off this week with earnings from Delta Airlines on Wednesday and then big banks like JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley reporting on Friday. The comments from these executives this week and over the next few weeks are going to be critical. Even more so than the earnings results themselves because the earnings numbers are from Q1

before the full impact of these tariffs really went into place. So we're going to be staying on top of all this stuff, listening to these earnings calls, and we'll keep you in the loop of what the vibe is like. So make sure you guys are subscribed to the podcast to stay in the loop because it's going to be a very interesting few weeks. Let's run through some headlines. And let's talk more about the first. fallout from these tariffs. Wall Street is starting to really process the impact of these new tariffs. A bunch of big banks are now raising their odds of a recession. Goldman Sachs bumped their

recession probability from 35% to 45%. And they also cut their GDP forecasts in half from a 1% growth down to just 0.5%. And this projection is assuming an effective tariff rate of 15%. But with these reciprocal tariffs kicking in, that rate did climb to over 20%. So their projections could get even Meanwhile, these banks are now expecting more rate cuts from the Fed. Economists at JP Morgan and Goldman now think we'll see multiple rate cuts this year, and traders are even pricing in the possibility of an emergency rate cut, which is really rare. The last time that happened was in 2020 during COVID.

An emergency rate cut is when the Federal Reserve cuts rates before their scheduled Fed meeting. The next scheduled Fed meeting is for May 7th, so another month from now. So traders think that if things get really bad, the Fed would cut rates before. for that. Again, that hasn't happened since COVID. Now, to be fair, Fed shared Jerome Powell did say on Friday the Fed isn't in a rush to cut rates. But if the markets keep sliding the way they are, the pressure might force his hand. I mean, the fact that the markets are considering this as even a possibility tells you everything you need to know. And now it looks like Trump is starting to lose the support of some of his loudest supporters. Ted Cruz and other Republican senators have began

raising the alarm on Trump's tariffs. In fact, on Ted Cruz's podcast, which who knew he had a podcast, He warned that if other countries retaliate with their own tariffs like China has, it could destroy U.S. jobs and cause real damage to the economy. And beyond just politicians, Trump is losing support from billionaires as well. The hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman, who was on Team Trump back during the campaign, posted on X, basically begging the president to call a timeout on tariffs or risk a self-induced economic nuclear winter. That was his word.

He also warned of collapsing consumer spending and halting business investments. and potential mass layoffs. And even the richest man in the world, Trump's BFF, Elon Musk, posted a video on X of Milton Friedman advocating for free trade. So Trump is starting to lose support from all sides. Who knows if this will impact

or change his decision on tariffs? But the markets have made it abundantly clear. They are not a fan of tariffs. Let's talk about the IPO market because things were just heating up with Cor Weave and Newsmax going public recently. And we had a bunch of high-profile companies like Calarna, Circle, Stubhub, and E. Toro lining up to go public soon.

Well, now a ton of these IPOs are being postponed because of the uncertainty around tariffs and the overall market volatility. Stubhub and Kalarna specifically are both delaying their IPO. They were both supposed to kick off their road show this week, but that's on pause now. I mean, Stubhub can't seem to catch a break. They also delayed their offering this past summer because of a soft IPO market. Plus, if there's a really sharp decline in the economy and consumer spending, I got a feeling that people going to live events might be one of the first things to take a big hit.

And it kind of makes sense with these companies to stay private a little while longer now because staying private allows them to avoid the volatility in the public markets. Perfect example is Kalarnas' top competitor, a firm. They're already a publicly traded company, and their stock has dropped 50% this year, including losing 8% just on Friday. So I'm sure Kalarna executives don't want to go through that roller coaster with their stock. So they're just going to wait a little while longer before officially IPOing. It's a sharp contrast from what everyone thought was going to happen when Trump won the presidency a few months ago.

Everyone was expecting a rush of IPOs and dealmaking. That seems to be grinded to a halt because of the tariffs. In fact, M&A activity in Q1 was down 13% even before these tariff talks ramped up, according to deal logic. So you can imagine the deal flow is probably going to tank even further now that Trump has just shocked the global economy. Let's talk about some stocks. making moves today. Honestly, not a lot of green on the board today, but TAVA pharmaceutical shares are up this morning after the FDA accepted their application to sell a jovee.

The company's migraine headache treatment to kids. If the FDA approves this treatment, the drug will be the only option to treat migraines for adults and kids on the market. As a result, TAVA shares are up around 6% today on this news. On the flip side, a lot of stocks in the red. Chinese stocks in particular are getting hit the hardest. Remember, China inactive retaliatory tariffs last week applying a 34% import tax on all goods coming from America into China. That's impacting stocks like Alibaba, which is down 6%. J.D.com is down 5%. Pin Duo, which is T.moo's holding

company. It's down more than 4%. The Hong Kong Hangseng Index fell by more than 13% on Monday. That's the biggest drop for that index since 1997. Let's wrap the show. Show with a fun fact. According to a CNBC survey, one-third of CEOs are expecting job cuts this year because of tariffs. Not really a fun fact, but that number definitely caught my eye. Another not-so-fun fact, 69% of CEOs expect the recession, and many think that it's going to happen this year. And lastly, 45% of CEOs said it would take two to three years to bring manufacturing back

to America, so not really a quick turnaround. Sorry to bum you guys out to start the week. Well, all right, guys, that's the rundown for today. I got to say, we are dealing with some pretty unprecedented times right now. Markets are just in total mayhem, and no one knows what's going to happen next. But we are going to stay on top of everything. So make sure you guys are subscribed to the podcast. Share it with someone that you think might find us helpful.

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and we'll see you guys back here tomorrow. This is the rundown, your real-time resource for news events and trends in the markets. All views presented in the show reflect the opinions of the guests. You should not take any mention of a publicly traded security as recommendation to buy, sell or hold that security. Run-down guests are not financial advisors and are not affiliated with public holdings or its subsidiaries.

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