The Rundown - Trump Approves Nvidia’s H200 chips to China; Google Teases AI Glasses

Episode Date: December 9, 2025

Market update for December 9, 2025Follow us on Instagram (@TheRundownDaily) for bonus content and instant reactions.In this episode we discuss: 10-year Treasury climbs despite rate cuts expectedTrump approves Nvidia’s H200 chip sales to China with a 25% revenue cut to the U.SGoogle’s plans to launch AI smart glasses in 2026Ares Management surges after being added to the S&P 500Toll Brothers falls on soft housing demand and margin pressureNetflix launches a new live mobile game show

Public.com presents the rundown. Your daily market update in under 10 minutes. My name is Zaid Admani, and today is Tuesday, December 9th. In today's episode, we'll tell you why Nvidia is about to re-enter the Chinese market. We'll also tell you about Google's plans to release smart glasses. Then stick around to the end of the show to find out how you can win $15,000 by watching Netflix. We got a great show for you today. Let's go.

Well, stocks were off to a slow start this week, snapping a four-day win streak on Monday as the S&P 500 fell 0.3%, while the NASDAG did a bit better dropping only 0.1%. The tech sector was the only one to finish in the green yesterday, along with small cap stocks. The Russell 2000 also squeezed out of small gain on Monday. Small caps have been cooking lately because investors expect the Fed to cut interest rates at the Fed meeting tomorrow.

And when borrowing costs get cheaper, smaller companies tend to benefit the most. Now, what's interesting, though, is that despite the market's pricing in a 90% chance of a rate cut tomorrow, the 10-year treasury yield continues to drift higher. It's currently sitting around 4.17%. That's the highest level since September. Now, I know we don't talk a lot about U.S. Treasuries on this show, but the 10-year yield is pretty important because things like mortgage rates follow the 10-year yield and not the Fed rate. So even if the Fed keeps cutting interest rates, but the 10-year yield rises, we're not going to get cheaper mortgage rates, which I think a lot of people were hoping for. Historically, the 10-year yield tends to move together with the Fed funds rate,

but not always. The 10-year yield is ultimately market-driven, and the fact that it's moving higher right now, despite rate cuts projected, could be a sign that markets are concerned that the Fed won't cut rates in 2026 because of inflation. Or the markets could be concerned about other long-term uncertainties like geopolitical risk or the U.S. national debt. So I'm definitely keeping my eye on the 10-year yield right now. Now, going back to the Fed, we are going to get the famous Fed dot plot at the Fed meeting tomorrow, which shows where each Fed official expects interest rates to be over the next three years. Now, markets love to overreact to this charge, so buckle up. But we'll break it all down on Thursday's episode. So make sure you guys are subscribed to the podcast and tuning in every

day to stay in the loop. Let's run through some headlines, starting with Nvidia. President Trump just approved a plan that will allow Nvidia to sell their H-200 AI chips to approved customers in China, and in exchange, the U.S. government will take a 25% cut of all those sales. Now, the H-200 chip is not Nvidia's most powerful AI chip. It's actually a step below the new Blackwell and Ruben chips. But according to Bloomberg, the H-200 chips are still roughly a full generation ahead of anything that China can make domestically right now. Now, there's been a lot of drama involving chips in China. China, the U.S. government allowed Nvidia to sell their water down H20 chips to China,

but then China banned those chips earlier this year for security reasons. Now, the main reason for that ban was to become self-sufficient and forced domestic chipmakers like Huawei to innovate. And even though the U.S. has unbanned these H-200 chips, the Chinese government still needs to approve the imports of these chips. President Trump did say on truth social that Chinese President Xi responded positively to the H-200 chips being unbanned. But according to the financial times, the Chinese government will limit,

access to these chips to further push their domestic chip makers. Still, this does open the door for Nvidia to start making money in China again. Back in 2024, China accounted for 14% of Nvidia's revenue, and now it's basically zero. So this new development could mean billions of dollars in additional revenue for Nvidia. Now, Chinese tech companies are pushing out innovative, open source AI models, so there's a huge demand for Nvidia's powerful chips. Now, critics argue that sending powerful AI chips to China could accelerate China's AI capabilities.

that could ultimately hurt the U.S. tech companies. But the counter argument from Nvidia is that if we don't sell chips to China, then Chinese tech companies will just buy them from Huawei, which could result in Huawei catching up to Nvidia one day. Honestly, I see both sides to this argument. I think I'm leaning towards allowing the export of these chips to China. But then again, I might be biased because I do own some Nvidia stock. Let me know in the comments on what you guys think.

I do find it funny, though, how the U.S. government will get a 25% cut of the revenue. It's like you have to pay a fee to the U.S. government to do business in China. Now. Let's shift gears from one AI giant to another and talk about Google. According to a report from Bloomberg, Google is planning to launch smart glasses in 2026 with two versions, one with a virtual AR display and one that's audio only. Google's hardware partner on this includes Samsung, Warby Parker, and Gentle Monster. And Google has already built some prototypes with iware maker X-wheel codename Project ORA. Now, these glasses will be powered by the Android XR operating system, which actually powers the Samsung smart glasses. And of course, it's going to have a

heavy dose of AI with Google's Gemini being integrated throughout. Now, I think Google saw the success that Meta had with their smart rayband glasses. There's also rumors that Apple is working on smart glasses as well. So Google is ready to compete and they might have a leg up since their AI tech is considered to be the best. So smart glasses are expected to be a growing category. I think they have a much higher upside than the VR headsets because again, nobody wants to put a thing on their face. Let's just hope that Google has learned their lesson from the Google glasses flop they had over a decade ago because those glasses were terrible and absolutely hideous. I think the key for these glasses to be a success is they have to actually look like glasses. Now, our investors are reacting to this news by

buying up Warby Parker stock, which is up more than 5% this morning. Let's talk about some stocks making moves today. Shares of the private credit company Aries Management is rising this morning on the news that they will be added to the S&P 500 on December 11. Aries is replacing Kelenova, which is about to be acquired by the snack company Mars. You know, the private credit space has exploded over the last few years. It's become a popular way for companies to borrow money instead of going through traditional banks. And Ares is really capitalized on this. You know, companies like Ares pull together money from investors and lend it out.

Their stock has jumped nearly 200% over the last five years. And their stock is up another 8% this morning as S&P 500 index funds will now. have to buy their stock. Now, on the flip side, shares of the luxury home builder Toll Brothers are falling after reporting mixed earnings and warning that demand remains soft across many markets. You know, high housing costs continue to keep a lot of buyers on the sideline. Now, builders have been cutting prices and offering incentives to move inventory, but that's put a squeeze on their margins industry-wide. Toll Brothers, whose average home price is around a million dollars, reported that their gross margins fell by 1% this year to 25.6%. Now, the one bright spot for

the company was that the homes under contract total 9,943, which is slightly ahead of estimates. Still, I think investors are more focused on the margin pressure and the overall slowness in the housing market, which is why Toll Brothers stock is down nearly 5% this morning at the time of this recording. Let's wrap the show with a fun fact. Netflix is launching a live interactive mobile game show called Best Guest Live, and it's basically a modern reboot of HQ trivia. And I mean that in the most flattering way possible. This game show will stream Monday through Friday at 8 p.m. Eastern exclusively on the Netflix mobile app. And according to Netflix, the games will be a fast-paced guessing game with multiple clues. And the earlier you figure out the answer, the bigger your share,

the price pool will be. Netflix plans to give away $15,000 per episode split across two puzzles per night. And honestly, I think this is a smart move by Netflix. They've been leaning more into live programming and casual gaming. And this hits both lanes at once. Plus, if you're already in the Netflix app at 8 p.m. to play. Netflix is probably hoping you'll stick around and watch a show after, so this could help their watch time numbers as well. And let's be honest, Netflix is probably going to use this game show to cross-promote all of their upcoming shows and movies as well. So yeah, really smart move by Netflix, and I wonder how many people are going to tune in every night. I bet this thing does pretty big numbers, at least in the beginning. My only criticism is that the

prize money is only $15,000. Like, they just dropped $80-plus billion to buy Warner's. At least make the prize money like $100,000 a night or something. Well, all right, guys, that's the rundown for today. I hope you guys enjoyed today's episode if you did. And you have like five extra seconds. Consider giving us a five-star rating on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, wherever you listen to your podcast. And if you are listening on Spotify,

don't forget to vote in today's Spotify poll. Leave us a comment on Spotify. All that engagement really does help us out. And it helps other people find the show. Thank you guys so much for listening, watching, and commenting. Shout out. to Mike and Connor for all the work behind the scenes. And we'll see you guys back here tomorrow.

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