The Rundown - TSMC Signals More AI Spending, Tesla Makes Changes to FSD

Episode Date: January 15, 2026

Market update for January 15, 2026Follow us on Instagram (@TheRundownDaily) for bonus content and instant reactions.In today’s episode:Investors drop tech and rotate to small capsTSMC delivers blowout quarter and signals even more AI-driven spending in 2026Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley post strong earnings as trading and deal activity surgeOil prices slide as geopolitical tensions around Iran ease, pulling energy stocks lowerTesla moves Full Self-Driving to a subscription-only model as it leans harder into software revenue

Public.com presents the rundown. Your daily market update in under 10 minutes. My name is Zadadmani, and today is Thursday, January 15th. In today's episode, we'll recap earnings from TSM and tell you what it means for the AI trade. We'll also tell you why investment banks are having a big quarter. Then stick around to the end of the show to find out why Tesla will stop selling their FSD software. We got a great show for you today. Today, let's go.

Stocks had their second red day in a row on Wednesday with the S&P 500 dropping 0.5%. Well, the NASDAQ lost more than 1%. It was the worst day of the year so far for the NASDAQ. And once again, this sell-off was mostly concentrated in tech stocks. Every single magnificent seven stock was down yesterday. In fact, yesterday it was one of those days where more than 310 stocks in the S&P actually closed higher, but the index still fell because the mega-cap tech names carry so much weight. Remember, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ or market-cap-weighted indices,

so the larger the company is, the more impact it has on the index. Now, some on Wall Street are calling this the return of the S&P 493. So instead of the market being carried by a handful of AI and mega-cap tech names, money is finally rotating into the rest of the market. The best example of that are small cap stocks. The Russell 2000, which tracks smaller companies, finished in the green yesterday, and is now up near, 7% on the year, massively outperforming the NASDAQ so far in 2026. Now, I don't think this is a reason

to panic or anything. Market rotations happen. And honestly, I think it's a good and healthy thing that the market is starting to broaden out a bit. That said, if big tech names continue to struggle, the major indices could have a hard time rally. We'll see how long the weakness in the tech sector lasts. Many of the big tech names will start reporting earnings in a couple of weeks. So maybe those earnings could spark a rally. We'll have to see how it all plays out. I mean, it does feel weird being a tech investor and underperforming the market because that hasn't happened in a long time. But yeah, we'll be breaking down the earnings in a couple weeks. So if you're new here, make sure you're subscribed to the podcast and tuning in every day to stay in the loop.

Let's run through some headlines. Starting with TSMC. TSM is the world's largest chipmaker, one of the most important companies in the world. And they just reported earnings and delivered a record quarter with profits jumping 35%. That now marks eight straight quarters of year-over-year profit growth, which is incredible. Revenue also beat expectations rising 20%, and the outlook is what really caught investors' attention. TSM says it expects 2026 revenue growth of nearly 30%, which is even stronger than what Wall Street was forecasting. So that's a pretty big signal that the AI boom still has plenty of fuel left in the tank. A big chunk of TSM's growth right now is coming from high.

high performance computing, which includes AI chips and advanced 5G applications. That segment alone made up 55% of total sales last quarter. Now, smartphones are still a meaningful part of their business accounting for about 32% of revenue. TSM is increasing their cap-ax spending to keep up with all this demand. The company says they expect their cap-backs to be in the range of between $52 billion and $56 billion in 2026, which is up from the $40 billion in 2025. So these numbers from TSM are definitely a bullish indicator for the overall AI trade, but I do want to point out one risk, which is the shortage in memory chips. See right now with all this AI infrastructure buildout, the AI servers going into these AI data centers need DRAM, NAND, and high bandwidth memory,

which is squeezing the supply for smartphones and PCs. Now, if you guys have a gamer friend, they're probably complaining about this nonstop. The price of RAM has just absolutely skyrocketed over the last few months. Now, that might be great news for memory makers, like sand disk and micron, but it could force PC and smartphone companies to raise prices, which may slow down demand, and that would be bearish for TSM. Also, Apple alone made up roughly 20% of TSMC's revenue in 2025. If Apple sees a slowdown, it could also lead to a slowdown at TSMC. So those are some of the risks that TSMC faces moving forward. Overall, though, TSM's numbers are very encouraging. They suggest that the AI spending is showing no signs of slowing down, but investors should keep an eye on the

memory bottleneck and see if it leads to a meaningful slowdown at TSM. Let's keep it moving and talk about earnings from investment banks starting with Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs had a monster quarter thanks to the record-breaking equities trading. The bank made $4.3 billion in equity trading revenue in Q4, which was up 25% from last year to when markets get choppy like they did in Q4, it's great for traders at these big banks. But beyond just trading, Goldman also saw investment banking fees increased 25% to $2.6 billion, thanks to an increase in M&A activity and debt underwriting. Overall, the bank saw their profits increased by 12% to $4.6 billion. Now, I should mention that Goldman's revenues did drop by 3% in Q4, but that was because they offloaded the

Apple card loan portfolio and credit card business to JPMorgan. Honestly, though, Goldman Sachs is getting out of the consumer credit card business right before a potential 10% credit card rate cap, Might be great timing. So overall, Q4 was a huge quarter for Goldman Sachs, and their stock is up around 2% this morning. Now, let's talk about Morgan Stanley. They also had a great quarter, especially their investment banking division. Total investment banking revenues jumped 47% in Q4, driven by a wave of companies rushing to issue debt, especially tied to AI data centers.

On top of that, their wealth management business continues to be a machine. The firm brought in over $120 billion in net new assets during. Q4. So yeah, the big picture here is that these big investment banks are crushing it right now. They're taking advantage of the market volatility and increased M&A activity and also riding the AI boom by issuing debt. All of that is great for business and their stock continues to move higher. Let's talk about some stocks making moves today. Shares of Black Rock are rising this morning after the world's largest asset manager reported a record $14 trillion in assets under management. big reason for that is ETFs. See, BlackRock owns I shares, which has some of the biggest

ETFs in the world. So as more and more people invest in ETFs, that increases BlackRock's assets under management. But beyond just ETFs, BlackRock has also been aggressively expanding into alternative investments, including private equity, private credit, and infrastructure. That strategy is starting to pay off. The firm now manages more than $423 billion in alternative assets, which is up over 45% from a year ago. And these alternative assets have higher management fees compared to ETFs, which means more profit for BlackRock. And here's another key detail for BlackRock. Their base management fees, which are fees that aren't tied to market performance, those were up 9% year over year. So that means that BlackRock

continues to make money even when the markets get choppy. As a result, shares of BlackRock were up more than 2% this morning in reaction to the earnings. Now, on the flip side, oil stocks are sliding this morning after President Trump dialed back as aggressive stance on Iran, easing fears of a U.S. attack on the country. There have been mass government protests in Iran for weeks now, and Trump had warned that the U.S. could get involved and respond with military action, and that risk sent oil prices jumping more than 10 percent earlier in the week. Iran is a major oil producer and a key member of the OPEX plus countries with some of the

largest oil reserves in the world, and any disruption or military conflict there would have tightened global supply. But now that Trump is backing down, oil prices fell nearly 4 percent, and that's also pushing down the stock prices of oil giants like Exxon, Chevron, and other oil names. Let's wrap the show with the fun fact. Tesla is officially turning their full self-driving service into a subscription-only product. Elon Musk announced on X that starting February 14th, Tesla will stop selling full self-driving as a one-time purchase and instead only offer it as a monthly subscription.

See, up until now, you had two options. You could either pay $8,000 up front when buying a new Tesla and then get a new Tesla and then get FSD for life, or you can subscribe to FSD by paying $99 a month. But going forward, the lump sum option is gone and it's going to be subscription only. And I can't say that I'm surprised. You know, this is just another example of the subscriptionification of the economy. You know, investors like predictable high margin reoccurring revenue and that's what subscriptions are. And Tesla is just further leaning into being more of a software business than a car company. Plus, I can't imagine that many Tesla buyers were paying $8,000 off front

anyways for FSD. In fact, according to Tesla's CFO, only 12% of Tesla's current fleet have FSD, which includes anyone that paid upfront or is paying $99 a month. You know, I have a Tesla and I tried FSD for a month and while it was cool, I just don't think that it's worth it for me. Like, I don't really drive a lot. I mostly work from home, so I didn't think it was worth paying $100 a month. Now, if Tesla drops the price to like $40 a month, I can see myself getting it. But until the prices come down, I don't think many Tesla owners are going to be getting FSD. You know, if you're a Tesla owner, let me know the comments on if you currently pay for FSD and if you think that it's worth it. And if you don't pay for FSD, at what price point would you consider paying for FSD?

Well, all right, guys, that's the rundown for today. Hope you guys enjoyed today's episode if you did. And you have like five extra seconds. Consider giving us a five-star rating on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, wherever you listen to your podcast. If you are listening on Spotify, don't forget to vote in today's Spotify poll. Leave us a comment on Spotify. all that engagement. Really does help us out, and it helps other people find the show.

Thank you guys so much for listening, watching, and commenting. Shout out to Mike and Connor. For all the work behind the scenes, and we'll see you guys back here tomorrow. Frozen lasagna, medium power, 15 minutes. Sounds like Ojo time. Let's play. Feel the fun with Play-Ojo. The online casino with all the latest slot and live casino games.

What you win is yours to keep. wagering requirements, instant payouts, and no minimum withdraws. Hey, I just won. Woohoo. Feel the fun. Hey, oh Joe. Honey, forget about the lasagna. Let's celebrate. 19 plus Ontario only. Please play responsibly. Concern about your gambling or that of someone close to you. Call 16-3-1-2600 or visit connectxontario.ca. Sorry, investing, trading. That isn't a personality. You don't need the voice. You don't need the jargon. You don't need the podcast. You already know how to trade. You've done it your whole life and TD Easy Trade taps into that instinct

so you can build something real. No minimums, no monthly fees, 24-hour support, no investor personality required. Because you are made to trade and TD Easy Trade is made to help. Download it now.