The Rundown - What Nvidia’s Perfect Quarter, Google Gemini 3, and Interest Rates Reveal About the AI Trade (ft. Doug O'Laughlin)

Episode Date: November 23, 2025

Is the AI trade cooling off, or is this the calm before an even more explosive phase of the build-out? Zaid sits down with Doug O’Loughlin, President at SemiAnalysis, to break down Nvidia's earnings report, why AI spending might actually accelerate from here, how Google’s Gemini 3 and in-house TPUs have suddenly shifted the competitive landscape, and why founders like Zuck are willing to pour billions into GPUs even as investors panic. They dive into the real useful life of Nvidia chips, whether OpenAI’s shine is fading, how rate cuts fuel the “AI party,” and what happens when hyperscalers start borrowing real money to ramp capex. Plus: why Oracle might actually be betting the company, and Doug’s call on when OpenAI could IPO.

Welcome back to the rundown, one of the top business podcast in the world. Today, we are talking to Doug O'Loughlin, the president of semi-analysis. Semi-analysis has become the go-to research company in the semiconductor in AI space. They post incredible reports breaking down everything from semiconductor supply chains to AI models. Today's conversation with Doug hit on a ton of subjects, including the market's reaction to Nvidia's earnings, Google's launch of Gemini 3, why Google's TPUs are such a big deal and why the AI bubble could get way crazier. You could tell from this conversation that Doug really knows this stuff and he's very passionate about it. Parts of the conversation got very nerdy, but I think you guys are going to really enjoy it. All right, let's get into it.

All right, guys, today we are talking to Doug O'Loughlin from semi-analysis. Seminole analysis has some of the best research and reports on the semiconductor and AI industry. I always look forward to their reports. Doug, thanks so much for hopping on. Yeah, thanks for having me. So, yeah. Let's chat. Big week to come on, man. Big week to come on. You came on at the perfect time. How sick are you of talking about Nvidia earnings?

Surprisingly, this one, can I say maybe guilty confession? This one was kind of boring. Really? Yeah, it was very boring execution. It's a perfect print. I have no problems with it. It's like exactly what you need it. It's better than by set expectations.

It's better than the street, a little better than what we thought would do too. It's just a really good guide, a really good result. Even with the H20 not even coming back, they're still selling a lot of compute. Gross margins, you might have a slight complaint, but like that was kind of expected. I think it's a really good print, but I think, and like, look, the markets took it took that to be it was a really good print to the morning of, right? And then we fade it all day. So, I mean, I thought that this was going to be the all clear. Obviously, we even got the all clear and it was still a selling.

event, which tells me it's not just about NVIDIA in terms of the broader market environment, but I do think when it comes to NVIDIA specifically, it was like such a good print. It's boring. You know, just imagine like, you know, they beat all the numbers for the most part and the guide was great, but still, it's not good enough.

That's what was surprising to me was that how just like, again, across the board, they just crushed it. There was zero concerns moving forward, even the guide was great. But yet the market was just kind of like they brushed it off, which was, I think, concerning to a lot of people, like, okay, well, if this isn't enough to get the AI trade back on, does this mean that the AI trade is fully cooked? Or what else is going on?

What was your take on that? So I think, look, the AI trades had a really good year. Let's be real, right? It's had an amazing year. Even after a really good year last year. And honestly, I would even argue part of the year before, right, like into the end. I think, you know, stocks do go down sometimes. I think there's been a little bit of, why? Yeah, I know. Up only isn't, just doesn't work. It is not going to be up only forever.

And I think the reality is we've had a really, really, really strong run since the tariff tantrum, right? I think we've been above the 50 day for, like, this is a really surprising thing I learned. We are above the 50 day moving average for the second longest streak in history. The, just recently we broke through it. The second longest streak in history. I was like, wait, that's.

That means we've been in a huge ripping bull market, which we have been. And I guess I was just really shocked. I was shocked by that. And so I think that this is just an example of like, hey, stocks do go down. They don't go up only. And yeah, most of what's actually driving, I think, the price and narrative is the Fed, right? The fact that this morning, the reason why things have ripped at all actually is because some of the more dovish comments. We went from maybe no cut to definitely no cuts and actually we're cutting again.

So we went, it's so over, it's so back. And sorry, the other way, it's so back, it's so over and now it's so back, right? And that seems to be moving stocks more. So we're recording this on Friday morning, November 21st. And so this morning, a Fed official came out and saying that, oh, a rate cuts back on the table when there seemed to be no hope of a rate cut. And so, yeah, those comments are moving the markets back in the green. So it seems like the market is more focused on rate cuts. right now. But like bigger picture though, if stocks, if this AI trade, let's just say, if this

AI correction continues to unwind and we still seem a bleed, whether it's a fast bleed or a slow bleed in these AI names, do you think that would, that's going to change the decision making from some of the hyperscalers? Because, you know, it's easy announcing a hundred billion dollar investment in a data center in Louisiana when stocks are at all time highs. It's a totally different thing when you're doing it when, you know, you're off 30% from the peak. Do you think that's going to change the decision from some of these hyperscalers? I think it just really depends on which hyperscaler. Look, meta, okay, so I specifically Google and specifically Mark Zuckerberg, they're post-economic. Money doesn't matter anymore to them. It's about technology and it's about

winning. You don't become a billionaire because you're not a crazy sicker who doesn't, you We want to keep winning, right? I think Zuck, part of the year of efficiency, right? It wasn't like reality labs is part of it, but like it kind of just everyone else was doing it. I think that there's a belief in driving willingness to continue to figure out this new technology. And it was clear to me reality labs wasn't it. And it is clear to be that AI is, right? I, you know, I, I, I, I, I messed around with an Oculus when, when Zuck was doing reality labs.

And I was like, this is pretty cool, but I don't think this is going to change my life. I messed around with chat GPT when, you know, obviously the chat GPT moment. I use Claudi's all, all in various amounts. And it is life changing. It is a transformative technology. Now, like every other transformative technology in the history of capitalism in our history, often there is a big capital cycle that builds capacity and supply to, you know, to be ahead of demand. And we're starting to see that right now.

In the beginning, it's very valuable and it makes a lot of sense to invest. In the end, it's overbuilt. And that's kind of the cycle that every single one of these technology transitions go through. You know, the Internet is the one that is probably the most recent one. So it's the most available. but there was a giant overbuild for like even semiconductors at one point, even, you know, the automobile industry, whenever that, you know, in the early, early 1900s that there was an overbuild. There was an overbuild for railroads.

Railroads are probably the most famous. Right. But yeah. But so I want to stick to that point here. You mentioned obviously the build out of the railroads. Everyone talks about that. There was a huge boom there and then a bunch of railroad companies went bankrupt. The internet, you had a bunch of fiber build out, right?

Fiber everywhere. But I think what people are concerned about with this buildout is that like fiber became useful all these years later. People still use fiber. The railroads are still used today 100 years later. There's concerns around all this money being spent on data centers and specifically these chips, right? What is the useful life of an Nvidia chip? Is it just three years, four years? You have Michael Bury tweeting every day talking about how these depreciations are underreported

and how the useful life is only like three years compared to what Nvidia is saying that it might be six years or even long. How do you see that? And how does that play into the bubble fears compared to like previous bubbles? So I think that's a great question. I definitely think there's a five to six year useful life, if it makes sense from the act. But the way that we think about it is less about like accounting useful life and more like economic useful life. There is, I mean, it's it's kind of complicated really. Like we could go into this in a lot of different ways.

So look, it's not going, you know, you're building all these assets in there. are not, let's say, long term. But the thing is, what happens is if you end up spending for another amount of, for a new chip, you end up having meaningful improvement and parity. You're right that this is like, you know, it does create a little bit of a treadmill aspect. But we're also seeing the inverse of it where there's a lot of older chips, for example, H-100s that are still being used today. So that's like the counterpoint, right, is that older assets that, like, from in this cycle

still are being used. And Corey, for example, booked H-100. at 95% of the original price for a contract. That's huge. But all of this is like, you know, you are right that there is this like kind of almost this crazy, this crazy like decline curve that's going to be really interesting to see. And I think that that crazy decline curve, you know, you see this in all kinds of things like Shale, for example, has a 12th. Are you familiar with the Shale well decline curve? I live in Houston. So, yeah. I mean, I used to work in the oil and gas industry.

Okay, yeah. Yeah. So, right, this 12 to 18 month, it's the same kind of aspect here where like you have these crazy cash flow IRAs and so you get all the cash up front and you can actually ironically reinvest in it. It's just a function of supply. Like what's going to happen is like you're going to keep a supply will keep, it's a function of demand rather. Supply is going to keep reacting to demand. And as long as there's demand on the other side to purchase these things, they're going to, you know, people are going to reinvest their cash back into it. And so you can actually have even this like more sick perversive thing. Like same brain mindset of like, hey, well, if you make so much money so fast on these shale wells, you could just take that and do another.

Shale well, right? It's, it can compound infinitely and also crash like crazy. But so that's the point, yes. Yeah. Yeah. And look, I think that that's going to happen. This cycle will happen. Like, I can't be like this, that that's not going to happen. But the way I look at it today is like there's a supply and demand curve. We know that the like supply demand of tokens. We know that there's a supply of a we, you know, we at some analysis, we're really hard to estimate and understand the supply of total tokens. But we know there's a demand curve for tokens too. Now, the biggest dream of all dreams is all of labor in the global economy. So, you know, $100 trillion, or whatever number you want to say, like $100 trillion, right?

The reality is always going to fall short. That's just how these new technologies are. But we do think there's a meaningful, real demand for most of these use cases. And we think that there's a real line of sight for multiple billion people using chat GPT or some proxy day to day in their life and paying some amount of money for it. Not 100% of them are going to be paid. Some of them will be free. There is a path for, you know, open AI and anthropic to be making triple-digit billion ARRs.

That's valuable. Now, the problem is triple-digit ARRs still can't even support some of the CAPEX. And that's the, I think that's the real crux and concern that people are having in the market right now. It's, yeah, it's real. The $1.4 trillion spend that Sam was talking about, and then right now they're sitting at, say, 12 billion ARR or whatever. Maybe it's 20 billion, whatever the number is. 20, but that's still not even close to what, that doesn't support the $1.4 trillion build out. Now, maybe that's just a marketing

number, right? It's not really a real number. But I think that when people, when people start seeing these big, ginormous numbers and they see like the revenues coming in, it's like, well, how do you justify everything? And then that's where the concerns start happening. And whenever the market starts dipping, that people start feeling worse about it. And then there's like this cycle. Yeah, there's definitely a self, self-fulfilling cycle of fear. right. But let me specifically talk a little bit about that. It's a $20 billion dollar ARR, right? So let's say it can support, we're going to do gross margins zero or whatever that can support $100 billion of investment over five years, right? Because it's a five

year at useful life. I think one of the reasons why it's 1.4 trillion and some of that is double counting, some of that's like over announced and some of it is like definitely, it's very in the back half of all this. What happens is like they announce a $500 billion deal, right? There'll be like $100 billion of it will be like already investments in flight and then they will like it like it's like okay a hundred billion 100 billion 200 200 and like so it scales and ramps these are often very back half weighted deals and these deals that are back half weighted you pay with them in future revenue so that's kind of the calculus I think is that you know chat you know they still believe they can grow triple digit revenues right and I don't know you know 20 to 20 to 200 that'd be pretty crazy like 20 to 100 or something is going to be a huge, huge, huge lift.

But we're talking about there's never been, or maybe not never, but it's really rare that you get to 800 million users and you don't go straight to like two or three. And so internet scale we'll call us $3 billion, right? Like that's Google, that's Facebook, right? And 3 billion users and they're not, and the vast majority of them aren't even paying. There's ways for you to make money from that. And so I think opening eye has to show that they can monetize quicker. And that's kind of going to be some of the push.

We wrote about how we think they will. We think agentic purchasing, right, which essentially is going to be taking a Vig on every transaction that happens. It's going to be one of the ways they'll be able to quickly monetize things. It's an affiliate fees, right? Yeah, essentially affiliate fees, right? Like, that's, you know, like when you pay someone to, you know, pick up your order at DoorDash, it's a service fee. That's going to, we definitely think that's going to happen in the near term. We're hearing all these partnerships.

I think some of this concern about monitors, sustainability is going to accelerate that, right? But then on the other side, yeah, I mean, it's a lot of money, bro. It's still a lot of money. So yeah. Yeah, I don't...

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Sorry, what I was going to say was, like, I think the, I think from my perspective, I feel like the shine has come off a little bit from opening eye, though. I think there's the interviews that Sam is doing and then like what the CFO, Sarah Friar said about potentially getting government backstops. I think the shine has kind of come to. off. That hasn't helped the narrative. And I think Google has done a really good job kind of coming in. Sundar has just kind of gotten like he's locked in. And now Google just launched Gemini 3. Um, that's Nanobanana 3 Pro, which is just viral on social media. And I feel like they've kind of coming in and taken the all the hype now when it comes to AI. Do you think that like Google coming in with their existing cash flows with an existing business, uh, kind of helps, uh, I don't know, it helps like, uh, uh, remove some of the fear about an AI bubble because there's a company that's actually doing it with cash flows and not necessarily, I don't know, big promises and dreams.

Yeah. Yes. Yes. What was your take on this? So, yeah, I think it's a great question. Okay, so I, okay, let's put this in this way. It would be a lot healthier for sure. I think, in fact, it would be extremely healthy.

If Google did all of it, right, we would know, hey, it's probably be money good, right? They have the full stack. It definitely works out. Probably bad for stocks, though, if you think. about it. All of these things, I mean, you could argue that some of that demand would be fungible, and whoever ends up winning the 3 billion, you know, the 3 billion users will be using all the chips. And so, hey, opening eye all of a sudden, those large clusters that they signed up for, they're not going to be open AI clusters anymore. They're going to be Gemini clusters, right?

So that would, I think, be kind of some of the thought process. But yeah, I think, yeah, I think it would be bad. And that's kind of one of the reasons why you're starting to see some of the sphere, too. But what I really, what I really truly utterly believe at the end of the day, what it's about is about rates, right? All of this is a function of like, I think of it as a ginormous party. Pretty much every single one of these technology builds, you have these ginormous capital builds. That's just history. Like, that's just how it works. Capitalism is extremely obsessed with margins until every 20 years completely throws that away and says,

fuck it, we're building the biggest, you know, this is the future. and all of the, you know, all of the entire world is going to point at the same direction to get this done. And so I think that that's kind of what we're seeing and where we're at. We're starting to see all of the world kind of point in the same direction because they want this technology. You know, whether if it's, you know, shareholders to a certain extent, shareholders are rewarding Gemini for winning, right? You can see credit markets are very happy and there's a lot of demand for debt. the government is very, very, very, very yolo and all in on this. And so you see all of these things kind of lined up and pointed in the same direction.

And that's kind of a big deal, man. And so the thing that that kind of is like, okay, two sides to the coin. We're probably already spending it at a rate that is unsustainable unless a lot of revenue comes soon. But the other side of it is that like if people are really all in, the upside of what that looks like, especially if you have uneconomic spending from the big players, is very very, Very, very, very, very large. You know, I learned recently that a Microsoft lens at essentially, let's say, 15 bibs above the United States government. That's crazy. That's crazy.

Like, yeah, they have no debt, too. Like, these guys all have an ability to really invest if they really want to. I don't think that's Microsoft right now. But I do think, well, I mean, actually, after the SOTI interview with Dylan Patel, business partner at Semianysis, right? Shout out. Yeah, shout out to Seminoleases. But there's a lot of, I think that Microsoft's back, but you have to remember who is the most aggressive of the players.

That's going to be meta and Google, right, because they're still run by founders. Founders are really important in this because it's, at the end of the day, it is a person-based game and these people do not want to lose. And so that's kind of what we think is that the capability and how the market is rewarding people for winning has kind of led to this incentive to win an AI at all costs.

And so I think that that's where we're at. It could get a lot crazier. But then also this whole thing is like, let's just say that's the party. Okay, that's the energy, the vibe. How I think about how crazy the party can get is all function downstream of capital. And in this case, capital and how cheap it is from, let's say, the Fed and long-term rates is like is the alcohol. okay now if if at the beginning of the party it's really expensive these drinks are 40 bucks a pop you know you're like ah i have to be at this party i'll pay i'll buy one drink and leave now if you cut

rates and you cut rates and you cut rates and you cut rates and all of a sudden they're like yeah drinks are free you're going to get pretty drunk dude so that's kind of where that that's i think that that's what's happened is we've seen we've seen the rate cuts and so one of the reasons why there's a freak out is i think And I thought, honestly, the market appreciated this, is that it became very consensus. We were not going to cut rates in December. And now, after this morning, people were like, wait, are we cutting rates? And so there's kind of this, like, there's a little bit of a tape, a little bit of a tantrum around rates as well. And so you have all of these things kind of at this, like, weird inflection point.

That's just how it works. I can't tell you definitively what's happening. And that's kind of a weird thing because usually I'm like, oh, I know. I know. I'm familiar. all my clients, I talk to everyone. But at this moment in time, it's kind of weird. It's just a vibe shift.

And so, yeah, we'll see where it lands. I like, so the connection that I'm seeing is that, okay, it's crazy right now, but it could get crazier because if the Fed cuts rates, it makes borrowing money even cheaper, and we haven't even entered the debt phase of this bubble where, like, companies like Microsoft meta started borrowing money, but Amazon, Google, they haven't even really started tapping the banks yet to borrow money and really poor money. into the buildout. Oracle started to do that, but nobody else has really done that.

And once that starts, that's when things get fun slash crazy. And we haven't gotten there yet. Yeah, that's a bubble. Okay, there's a big difference. Like, I think it's really hard for you for an entire thing. Like, yeah, it'd be bad, for example. Like, and like, look, I think free cash flow hasn't gone to zero. That's really what it comes down to.

The hyperscalers can move free cash flow to zero. If they move free cash flow to zero, then like all of a sudden you like... That means borrowing more money and spending everything they make on. Every single dollar they're. make yep they spend every single dollar right um everyone is not spending every single dollar and so spending every single dollar is one thing we think i mean i think at this point in time we'll probably go there just because like google for example their business model is the most under attack they've ever it's ever been for sure right yes um even microsoft man all these companies have these have some of the

greatest most profitable businesses in the history of capitalism and you can argue they've also are at the biggest threat in their entire lives too and that's all because of the i i i So you kind of have this concept where you have to continue to like maybe, maybe you can pull off the gas. But look, Microsoft pulled off the gas and it really hurt them last year. And so now, you know, it's kind of this weird race to, you have to stay in. You can't like, you know, if it's going to be a lot longer race, you can't go, you can't go out too fast. You could argue Oracle is going out too fast. They're running out of capacity, right?

They're betting the company on the exact, betting the entire company. They're betting the entire company. Like, you know, pretty much, I mean, if things go really. really poorly. There's an actual, there's an actual case that Oracle could go like bankrupt. Crazy. This thing's been, it's a very old company. Larry's been doing this for a long time. That'd be absurd, right? But that's just how it is. Like there's, you know, and so in this whole race, yeah, it's kind of a crazy thing. I still think it's not like, we're not going to call it early, but the potential for a true bubble is much, much, much crazier than today.

And I think as, you know, if it all stops, probably bad for stocks, but I still don't think it's, I still, I think it would be a drawdown, but it wouldn't be like this, we wouldn't go down like 40. It wouldn't be a bubble, right? Like it would be this painful adjustment period, but free cash flow can pay for a lot of things. And so that's okay. Opening eye gets the mark. It's very painful, whatever. But yeah, I, it's definitely not too late to stop and have like no damage. But I don't, I don't know where we're at. Like, It's this weird thing. You feel everyone pushing forward. And I think Gemini III, ironically, is going to be a huge shot across the bow. Like, you know, they haven't been working on pre-training in Open AI. And that's, you know, they can, if they really take it seriously, that this might be a really good competitive threat to get Open AI back on track. Staking with Gemini 3 and just Google in general. And please stop me if you have to run.

I just want to, you know, stop me whenever you have to. But I wanted to ask about Google's TPUs, which have gotten a lot of. attention, right? TPUs, they're personal, and I'm not very technical. So the TPUs are Google's specialized in-house-built chips. And some people are saying that this might be a legit threat to Nvidia's business as well, because if Google ends up winning the whole thing, everything's going to run on TPUs, and then no one's going to need GPUs and, you know, and Blackwell chips. Can you just kind of explain that to someone who's, to someone who's not technical on, like, how big of a deal these TPUs are? Yeah, these TPUs are number two. There's a, and like,

For some people there is a belief that they're the best chip that's available to purchase. Give me one second. If you've got to run, feel free. So let's just do this last TPU thing and I'll bounce. Okay, so TPs are tensor processing units and they're by Google. They are also manufactured with their design partner. Sorry, they're designed and they're co-designed with Broadcom manufactured at TSM. So the thing that's different, though, is Google makes it and designs part of it.

so they don't have to pay as much. You know, you talk about 75% gross margin. Imagine if instead of paying a 75% gross margin, you're paying a 50% gross margin, you know, 50% less. That's a lot of money that you get to. And so because you pay 50% less, I think I'm using that math, right? I might be wrong. Because you're paying so much less,

what happens is that you're able to get to have better cost of ownership. When you purchase a TPU, you're spending less on what you're effectively getting, and you own your data center, and you own your own model so you can margin stack in a way that no one else can. That's the beauty of, I mean, that's the beauty. That's really what it comes down to, right? When you own every layer of the stack, you only need to make profit once at the very end. You can eat the rest of it as a cost of good soul.

And so that's the beauty and that's what Google strategy is focused on. To be clear, Google strategy was sucking until very recently. Let's not forget. Barred. Oh, my God. Barred. Also, you have to bet on Google being a really good, a really good, like, essentially, like, have you noticed that they kill products all the time? And they kind of are like a kind of a crappy company when it comes to. Killed by Google.com. Yeah. Killed by Google.com. But they're also a crappy company when it comes to execution. On the back, on the back of this new release, what I do, and I do this for every single new model is I force myself. And like, what I do is like my action button.

effectively opens a model, right? So my action button right now is to Gemini. But it's like really, like I'm like, wait, am I on the right thing? Like it's kind of a shitty experience. Like straight up, like, I'm going to be honest with you, it sucks. Compared to, compared to Open AI, compared to Claude, you can just tell there isn't that like level of finesse. There's a desktop app for Claude.

There's a desktop app for chat GPT. There isn't one for Gemini. And there's just like all these little details where they just aren't super ultra-commercial. because if they don't figure this out, Google doesn't die versus the other two, they do. And so I think that that's the difference is two startups versus a big incumbent. But the big incumbent does have a lot of advantages

at this moment. So yeah, that's kind of the game. So yeah. Yeah. The 30 second question, does Open AI IPO before or after January 2020? 28? Got check.

Before or after 2028? January, 2020? So that's, 25. I mean, so look, I think it's been pretty widely rumored that they will do before because they're like, look, these checks are getting so big, right? There really is only one check left that you can do like this and it's public markets. Public markets don't quite scale to infinity, but they're pretty close. They're the most scale that we've ever had, right? And so, you know, a trillion-dollar company, you know, let's say, let's say he wants to raise $100 billion for a trillion-dollar valuation. That's, that's only capable, there's only one place in the entire world.

You could do that. So, yeah, I think that that's the dream. We'll see. Okay. Right. Yeah. I think, I think that it demands, right? There's this pace that this pace that Sam demands by essentially always raising, always investing, always like you, it kind of forces all the things to move.

forward even if you're like and pretty much as if you're not keeping up with that pace they die so that's that's the plan i think that really is a superpower fundraising is his superpower man he's so yeah 100% doug i really really appreciate it man everyone go check out semi-analysis every time i get a report in my email man i feel like i wish there was like a chat gpte explain like on five like buttons because it's such a detailed well-thought-out report and i have to spend like 45 minutes reading through it multiple times so highly recommend everyone check out semi-analysis and Doug, I really appreciate the time, man. Yeah, thanks for having me.

We should do this again. Take care. Oh, yeah, man. Thank you. Well, all right, guys. Hope you enjoyed that great conversation with Doug O'Loughlin. Like I said, wide-ranging topics. There were some more topics I wanted to ask him, but we went out of time.

I'll have to save those questions for the next time Doug comes on. If you guys enjoyed today's show and have like five extra seconds, consider giving us a five-star rating on YouTube, Spotify, or wherever you listen to your podcast. And if you are listening on Spotify, don't forget to vote in today's Spotify poll. leave us a comment on Spotify, all that engagement really does help us out and it helps other people find the show. Thank you guys so much for listening, watching, and commenting. Shout out to Mike and Connor for all the work behind the scenes. And we'll see you guys back here on Monday.

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