The Ryen Russillo Podcast - Albert Breer on Antonio Brown, Elliott's Contract, and Browns Hype | The Ryen Russillo Podcast

Episode Date: September 5, 2019

Russillo shares his 2019 NFL backup QB research (3:50) before talking to SI's Albert Breer about Antonio Brown's possible suspension and earlier turmoil since joining the Raiders, Ezekiel Elliott's new contract, Cam Newton at 30 years old, the Browns hype train, way-too-early playoff picks, and more (18:15). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

welcome in as we get ready for week one of the nfl the ryan rusillo podcast part of the ringer network in partnership with our friends at belvedere vodka join us for a live podcast in atlantic city for monday night football at the new Moneyline Bar and Book at the Borgata on Monday, September 16th. We'll be enjoying cocktails made with Belvedere vodka, the first super premium all-natural vodka, watching the Browns and the Jets. Maybe the Jets will be in my playoff picks, Kyle.

I had to go through these this morning. Oh, playoff picks? No, my rule is I have to pick one team out of absolute nowhere and it may be the jets uh and we're gonna be talking football and we may i don't want to oversell this but if i under deliver just think of it as a really bad headline that you clicked on and went wow that article sucked because that happens to you every day um just think if this is that version of that we could have an awesome guest booked, but it's just not 100%. So I'm leaving myself the out. I don't want to let down Belvedere

or anyone from the Smogory Forest region. But yeah, that's kind of what we're dealing with. We have Albert Breer from the Monday Morning Quarterback, SI.com, who'll be joining us occasionally. We've always had him on as a guest. We really.com. He'll be joining us occasionally. We've always had him on as a guest. We really appreciate it. He had some really good stuff to start the season, including some Cam Newton stuff. I'm reading a lot about Cam Newton.

He's figured it out. He's ready to go at 30 years old. There's two schools on Cam. Those that think this is kind of who he is and it's a little underwhelming and that 2015 is a fluke year, I'm probably more in that category. I think there's this very strong group and there's very good evidence for this and the way

everybody's talking about it is that he was a really good quarterback the first half of last season the shoulder injury is the reason that he fell off um there probably could be a little debate and how good was he really but i keep hearing everybody repeat the same thing over and over again that he was so fantastic and even albert breer said that in the first eight nine games um but it was strictly an injury thing and that's when he regressed but he's locked in with norv turner and scott turner and it's really good stuff in there and it may switch you into having an open mind if you've been uh anti-cam doing an open mind at least of what he would be this year although there's one quote in there in particular i have to talk to breer about so we'll do some playoff picks with him a bunch of different stuff the

new golf contract i talked zeke contract um i was going to do a little bit of an opening rant on the antonio brown tweets about his fines from the raiders and i'm like man this pro athlete thing just gets a becomes a shittier and shittier deal like you get 30 million in guaranteed new money because you quit on your other team and then you got to show up what's what's up with management bro like i can't believe this like i have to wait a minute now you guys actually want me to come to work too dude i'm more than an athlete all right so we'll see i'm gonna i'm just gonna hold off on that one because the antonio brown thing i was watching you guys debate it today on tv like i think football

is the sport where baseball it's just such a weird deal and it's every single night for six to seven months that you can't have a ton of bad guys on the team but you can have a couple bad guys and you show up to the park and then you bounce. Basketball, you would probably just take a bad guy if he was a top 10 player. But football has proven over and over again that you can have these really special players, I would say non-quarterbacks. And if you just move on, if that guy's doing his own thing, you can actually still be a very good team without him. So the Steelers are going to be an example of whether or not that works, at least going into this season. But the opening rant is one of my favorite things that I do. And I guess that would make sense because I'm the one that did it and put all this time into it.

But it is my annual backup quarterback research package. This is free for anybody out there. I love keeping track of who the backup quarterbacks are. I like trying to figure out how many teams are carrying two, how many are carrying three, and then ultimately the, I don't want to call it a mission statement here. I'm not starting my own small business, but there is just not enough quarterback depth.

Now there's depth to starters. We've never been, been in this every year i hate when people are like oh there's just not enough quarterbacks going around starters we've never had it better than we have it right now okay if you go 1 to 32 the starters there's really only a handful of guys where i remember being younger you felt like 10 of the quarterbacks shouldn't even have the job and you just didn't have any of those guys so the depth of starters has never been better but the turnover is so rapid at positions two and positions three that i don't know like do you do do you as a decision maker does a team know their second or third string who has zero game experience do they know that he doesn't have it does he have to show something in those limited amount of reps as a backup

that, wait a minute, this guy is worth sticking around and keeping him for a couple years? Or is it that you get so impatient and you don't think you can see anything, you never get a chance, you just figure new is better? Because I think that's something that happens in life all the time, is we are obsessed with this concept that new is better. I'm going to get to that. All right, so I could run through all.

Let's just do it because that's what we did last year. NFC North. And this was as of our lads depth charts on Wednesday into Thursday. So there could be a last minute injury thing here or there. There's some guys that are injured. So these are active backups right now. Second and third stringers. Chase Daniel four starts.

Stafford has Josh Johnson. And David Blau, the kid from Purdue. Rodgers has Tim Boyle. Cousins has Sean Mannion. Dak has Cooper Rush. No more Mike White. Remember him from last year. Eli's Daniel Jones and Alex Tanney.

Wentz has McCown and Sudfield, who had that injury. Keenum has Haskins, know the first round draft pick and McCoy who actually has had 27 starts but only 6 since 2011 Goff has Bortles, Bortles big number there 73 starts Kyle Murray has Brett Hundley Russell Wilson has Geno

Garoppolo has Nick Mullins and CJ Beathard Matt Ryan has the OG of this right now that's Matt Schaub still around 92 starts Cam has Kyle Allen and Will Greer combined one start for their career Breeze has Bridgewater 29 starts Taysom Hill sort of but he's technically as a quarterback three uh Winston has Blaine Gabbert and Ryan Griffin Lamarin lamar has rg3 and trace mcsorley rookie dalton has finley and jake dola gala okay if you want to go into some deep dive on some cincinnati bangle fan board sites that i did last night you're not missing a ton nationally

if you're interested in cincinnati football i suggest you go check it out immediately but i did to double check on some of the depth chart stuff because there's still a one percent chance i make a mistake on one of these and i started reading some of that stuff and like the value that the home fan base puts on a guy that looks pretty good in game four the preseason is a fucking one-way ticket to dumpt town okay because like hey we probably get a second for this guy but like hey dude the other one the other 31 fan bases don't even know who that guy is shout out to central connecticut though uh baker's got drew stanton garrett gilbert who's uh gary gilbert's played in one game ever he was two for three in that one uh ben has josh dobbs

and mason rudolph a combined zero starts there you're sensing a theme um josh allen has matt barkley afc east doesn't care they're just going one back up a crew here fitzpatrick's got rosen brady's got stidham zero starts daryl has trevor simeon 24 starts. AFC South, Mariota's got Ryan Tannehill, 88 starts. Big number there. I love that you can look at Tannehill's stats, and I did it again last night, and you go, these stats don't look that bad. But you know what?

I'm not going to fall for that. I'm not going to fall for that. Some guys, like, we just do the same thing. It's a summer league rule. Does summer league and the NBA matter? Well, yeah, if it backs my opinion. But the same thing it's a summer league role the summer league and the NBA matter well yeah if it backs my opinion but the same thing for quarterback stats like if you were to sit here and go you know I really think Tannehill could be a starter look at some of these because you could search through that stuff and be like hey we saw that that was pretty good that wasn't

too bad I know injuries are part of it but there's just other quarterbacks that falls into all right Deshaun Watson AJ McCarron three starts four years ago. We talk about that dude a lot. Not as much experience as you'd maybe think. Jacoby Brzezinski, Brian Hoyer, and that trade they recently did. He has 37 career starts as a backup. Most of those were in Cleveland and Houston back-to-back years, 2014-15. Foles has Gardner Minshew. That's a big zero.

Not as a guy because Minshew was awesome last year with zero career starts. Mahomes, Matt Moore, 30 starts but only five in the last seven years. We had a little Matt Moore love back in the day. Time does fly when you're talking Matt Moore. Rivers, Tyrod Taylor, 46 starts. Easton Stick, here we go, zero starts. I'm going to bring up Easton Stick again at some point. Hopefully I remember.

And then Derek Carr has Glennon, 22 22 and Kaiser because of the Peterman injury. Flacco, Brandon Allen, zero start. So all right, Ryan, congrats on all your homework. There are 20 backups of the 46 that have zero starts. Zero. Okay. And like half of those guys have never, ever played in a game. So the question then becomes, is that number 20 massive? No, I don't think it is. I don't think it is, comparatively, going back to other years. But the hope is likely that one of these guys with zero starts ever that is on a roster opening week one, that he's showing his team something in camp or they've invested the third or fourth round pick into him i mean some of these guys are actually drafted and then they get cut and nothing happens with them ever again and you go well wait a minute that guy went in the fourth

round and now nobody wants him and it's it's just like you know i compare things to the nba a lot but i think it works like that first round draft pick is so sexy in the nba when you trade for it be like man we got a first for this guy or we're not taking anything less than first and we need a first or before draft night when you're trading that first for what that player could be in the lottery that's that's always what the hope is is that you're getting something you haven't seen before whether it's at the top of the draft or a little bit later on that you're like I'm really good at this I'll take that draft pick I'll figure it out doubt any GM, as bad as some of these guys could be, ever go,

you know what I suck at? Picking dudes. I'm so bad at it. I can't believe I have this job, but I wish I could trade all my picks because I suck at identifying talent. No. If you have that job at some point, you've convinced yourself, or I don't know, maybe you're just delusional,

and some guys are just not good at it, but I imagine there's almost, it's probably an unheard of thing that you've had general managers in any of the major sports just having a look, like a look in the mirror moment and say to themselves, God, I'm not good at this. They would likely make excuses.

Oh, injuries, wrong coach, wrong system. Oh, this guy was a knucklehead off the court. I mean, I've heard it all a million times on flame out picks. I'd be like, what happened with this guy? I'd be like, oh, his cousin. Like his cousin prevented him from making jumpers? Like that doesn't make any sense. So my point, again, back to the newness, the falling in love with new,

is I think that the NFL goes, oh, that guy was a third or fourth or we had this great or whatever, but he was over at some other camp and he got caught in like, I don't, I don't want that guy. Let's just take somebody else to the fifth round and then we'll plug him in, even though he's done nothing in the NFL. So I think that's what leads to this turnover and what leads to this really, I don't want to call it like a natural resource here,

but this epidemic that I've been on for years and how many mid-round guys get no experience. They're flushed out. Two years later, you never hear from them again. And they're just replaced with the next crop of guys that have no experience. And then they just cycle through all of them. And I don't know that it's picking the wrong people. It's a combination of never learning if you could ever play the position because the way practice is set up and the way there is no real minor league other than this league that was like, hey, can you guys just bail us out with a huge check? Because we didn't do a ton of planning from that league that we just saw this spring where everybody thought that week one ratings actually meant something. And then week four was like, oh, that shit's still on? Okay, so when I look at 20 guys having zero starts, that number isn't a spike.

My guess is that it's not a massive spike. I think that's the norm, and that's the scarier part of that number. 18 teams have two backups, or excuse me, 18 teams have two quarterbacks in the active. That means 14 are teams carrying three. That's the old Mike Shanahan, Danny Connell thing where Danny, towards the end of his career with Denver, was begging Shanahan to keep the third quarterback.

And I never really knew this. And he goes, yeah, Shanahan broke down all the numbers for me. Like the third quarterback plays so rarely. I think it was single-digit percentage of games snapped. Like you go take this many games played this season, the number of times the third quarterback actually got into the game, it was less game, I think it was less than 10%. It was such a low number. It actually blew me away. And it obviously meant a lot more to Cannell because that meant he wasn't going to be the third quarterback on that roster. A couple quick hitters here. Oh, the Easton Stick

thing that I meant to get back to, but I feel like I've already made the point. Easton Stick, Oh, the Easton Stick thing that I meant to get back to, but I feel like I've already made the point. Easton Stick, all right, zero starts. You probably don't know who he is. Cardell Jones got cut. And you go, okay, so is Cardell, do we know that Cardell, who did what he did for Ohio State,

and you could sit there and go, oh, whatever, he's the system and all this stuff. All right, whatever. He played in one game with Buffalo. He had two off seasonsseasons with San Diego. Now, I'm willing to defer because I don't cover the Chargers, who are now the L.A. Chargers. I'm not around that team. Did they look at Cardell and say, hey, we've had him in here for two years,

kind of two off-seasons. It's not happening. Let's just keep the next guy. Or is that the pattern? That it's like, okay, this guy never got a chance. We don't really know if he's any good or not, but it's not happening. Let's just keep the next guy. Or is that the pattern? That it's like, okay, this guy never got a chance. We don't really know if he's any good or not, but it's not new. And we want new. And new is Easton Stick.

So we're in. A couple notes here. Most surprising start, I think Kyle Allen getting a start last year. Remember, they shut down Cam at the end, and Kyle Allen was really good in that game. So, yes, Carolina Panthers fans thinking how could you forget it was super easy to forget that Kyle Allen started the game I just did it last night um he was week 17 yeah and he was good weirdest ratio Chase Daniel in the league 28

years only four starts you may want to check the numbers on that and I think it's a tie between who the fuck is mike white who the fuck is mike white award it might be jake dola gala or easton stick i don't know they can share that we'll make up some t-shirts for him all right we got we got albert breer coming up everyone that's ever run any kind of business knows how hard it is to find people to work i'm going to tell you a quick story here so don't don't fast forward through this. All right. I remember because, you know, my father had the construction thing going on. So as I got older and he was doing better when he morphed from humble bricklayer and deck builder to, um, you know, fancy house builder, I would have to do painting a lot, right? Cause he just, whatever. I mean, it was cash. I could

kind of take a day off here if I wanted to. Like, when you're younger, you're just such a shithead all the time. I don't know if Zipper Crew is going to want me swearing in the middle of their read, but that's alright. You know, you don't realize, like, actually it's a really good gig. I'm outside, and painting can be a little mindless. But the point is this, is that people are always asking

me to have my dad hire them because they looked at it as like, hey, it's a better gig. It's a little more flexible. Ryan seems like a nice enough guy. And I would go, okay, well, can you paint? And they would say, absolutely, born to paint. And I'd be like, pretend you're holding a brush and you're painting a piece of trim

on the outside. And they would hold it like they were holding a magic wand and I would know immediately, okay, Harry Potter, like you can't paint. So if ZipRecruiter had been around with their powerful matching technology, ZipRecruiter could have scanned thousands of resumes to find people with the right experience and painting experience. And they invite them to apply to your job. As applications come in, ZipRecruiter analyzes each one and spotlights the top candidates so you never miss a great match. ZipRecruiter is so effective that four out of five employers who post on ZipRecruiter

get a quality candidate through the site within the first day. And right now, my listeners can try ZipRecruiter for free at this exclusive web address, ZipRecruiter.com slash Ryan. That's ZipRecruiter.com slash Ryan. R-Y-E-N. It's ZipRecruiter.com slash Ryan. That's ZipRecruiter.com slash Ryan. R-Y-E-N. ZipRecruiter.com slash Ryan. ZipRecruiter. The smartest way to hire.

Football's finally back in DraftKings. The leader in one-day fantasy football has huge week one contests. The first one starts this Thursday when Chicago and Green Bay kick off the season in a single-game showdown with $2.5 million in total prizes up for grabs. Draft your single-game showdown lineup and feel the sweat. That's quotations, the sweat, like never before. Just draft six players from the season opener, stay under the salary cap, and see how your team stacks up.

New users who sign up today with the code DUAL, D-U-A-L, will receive a free shot at the $1 million top prize. Nothing adds to the sweat of watching the game quite like having a shot at a million dollars. Download the DraftKings app now and use the code DUAL, D-U-A-L. For a limited time, both new and existing users can get a deposit bonus up to $500. And new users don't miss out on this extra special week one bonus.

Enter DUAL to get a free shot at one million dollars with your first deposit that's code dual only at DraftKings minimum five dollar deposit required deposit bonus requires a 25 times playthrough eligibility restrictions apply see DraftKings.com for details so just so people understand I taped the open prior to the Antonio Brown news we bring in Albert Breer now from the MMQBSI.com with the latest on what's going on with Brown. We're apparently going to do an altercation with Mike Mayock, the GM, and now we're trying to figure out what's going on. So, all right, again, that's what we're always doing here with AB.

What's going on, Breer? What's up, Ryan? I mean, I just tell you earlier, and I'm sure the story's going to evolve over the next few hours and everything else, but I've got three texts back now that all just did the same thing, which is not good. So, you know, we're still – I'm still working through some of the details. But, you know, I think it's hard not to look at the situation

and think to yourself, the Raiders kind of got what they signed up for. Yeah, that's always the thing with anybody that's troubled like my favorite joke about the sec is that everybody makes fun of the quarterback that's dismissed until your team then signs them um yeah and the new fan base always thinks okay well he'll figure this thing out i mean there's a lot of evidence that ab is a different guy he's a selfish guy and that always turned into these different like well wait a minute you're gonna criticize rothlisberger more and i'd be like hey i criticize rothlisberger all the time um but yeah I've seen some of that like hey Mayock should have known but I think when you go hey man we're gonna give you 30 million in guaranteed new

money when you bounced your way out like we expect you to at least show up for work and he didn't even want to do that and then to act like everybody's against him because he's being fined for something he's supposed to be at like could could anyone have expected that it would go this bad knowing uh the tumultuous run that brown had in pittsburgh like is this is it still yeah do you really knock those guys for going hey you know we can figure this thing out i mean i would tell you this ryan i mean the one thing that he always had going for him in pittsburgh he's always the hardest working guy in the building. And that was part of why people there really, I think, had a hard time really getting all over him about the little things that he would do.

The hardest-working guy in the building and the most productive guy in the team. And so if you add those two things together, and if you've got those two things going for you, you're going to get a lot of leeway from people around you. And it was that way for a long time in Pittsburgh. And, you know, everybody there had a good idea of who he was, and that little thing set him off. And, you know, towards the end of last year, and we reported this back in December, and, you know, it seems trivial now, but the fact that the team MVP went to Juju Smith-Schuster was, you know, really the straw that broke the camel's back there. And, you know, I think, so you can see those pieces of it and what's happened in Oakland,

you know, whether it's the helmet or the feet the last few months. You know, I think the other piece of this is just sort of how empowered he's become since all of that happened in Pittsburgh in December. In that, you know, and you want to just look at the two major things. He shoots his way out of the Steelers organization. And what happens? Well, the Steelers have to take a discount on their return, and he winds up taking home $30 million guaranteed.

And then, with the helmet thing, that causes a huge issue for the Raiders over the course of the summer. 2,000 other players can adhere to the new helmet standards. He's the one who can't. And at the end of it, what happens? Well, he winds up getting an endorsement deal and no punishment for the team

for the way he acted. It's not hard to see where there are a couple of incidents over the course of the last nine months where he acted. So, I mean, it's not hard to see where, you know, there are a couple of incidents over the course of the last nine months where he acted a certain way, did what he wanted, and he actually, you could argue, was rewarded. And so, it doesn't surprise me that if, you know, someone in that building, and that's someone like Mayock, pushed back a little bit on the way he was acting, pushed back a little bit on the way he was deducting himself, that he would chafe against that because he's been empowered to act this way over the course of the last year.

Yeah, that makes sense. I mean, there's nothing more empowering than forcing your way out, doing things wrong, not being a team guy, and then getting more guaranteed money. So you just go, you know, it's like everybody that you go, wait a minute, what did I do wrong? I mean, Zekielia to me is completely different, but there's some similarities. It's like, wait a minute, what did I do wrong? Like zeke elliot to me is completely different but there's some similarities it's like wait a minute what did i do wrong like i held out i didn't have to go to any of the preseason stuff i got paid the most of any running back and i'm ready to go week one and you're going to tell me i did something wrong

like on zeke's side i look at it a little differently um because you know let's see how he is when he comes back and everything but it worked like zeke's plan works oh hey you have two years left you shouldn't be doing this it's like whatever look at me look i got 51 million guaranteed but brown's track record uh would suggest that you'd want to see a little bit more buy-in so i think the most important thing here is what do the raiders want to do do they want that 30 million back do they want to go for every last dollar which i'd read they could do do they want to prove some kind of point and rid themselves of this or do they actually want to find a way to make this work with Brown? Sure. I mean, the process now

would be if they suspend him for conduct detrimental, which would be the next step, and that'd be what they'd have to suspend him under. That'd be the rule they'd have to suspend him under. Once he's suspended for conduct detrimental, his guarantees are default. And so it doesn't mean he wouldn't get paid

what he's scheduled to get paid if they kept him on the team. It just means that none of that money will be guaranteed anymore. It happened to Leonard Fournette and Jacksonville last year. And so that would give the team the ultimate power over him, that they could walk away from him whenever they wanted to. You know, that said, I would tell you, you know, my feeling on this, this goes back to July. My feeling on this, and this goes back to July, I remember last summer when I was around the Raiders, there was really this feeling of almost a split in the organization.

You were either a Gruden guy or you weren't. You even talked to John about it. He'd be like, well, the offensive line sucks, and there's this problem, there's that problem. We don't have any linebackers on the team. And that tone really changed when Mayock came in the building. And, you know, what I noticed from Gruden over the course of the last, I'd say, three, four months, there was real ownership of the roster.

Like, those players in that roster, they're his now. And, you know, I really felt like, and I think people thought on Hard Knocks, was there's a personal responsibility on Gruden's part in the acquisition of Antonio Brown. That's his. And so Gruden, and look, I think Mike can do a good job as a GM and all that. Gruden's still the one who carries the stick in the organization. And so if Gruden wants him on the team, he's going to be on the team. And maybe they suspend him or whatever, but I would still think that Gruden's going to make an effort to try to make this work because again, he knows this went on him.

And so it'll be interesting to see how the next few days play out and how many people actually go to John Gruden and say, we can't do this. We can't go forward with this. Because I would think just based on where we are right now, John would try to do what he can to salvage the

situation because it all traces right back to him. I'm trying to think of the follow-up of like, hey, what's Antonio Brown thinking? Like, you know, most guys would go, I don't, all right, you know what? I don't want to lose 30 million bucks here, you know? But, you know, the market, it's not like, I would think after all of this stuff, I doubt there'd be, like, do you think, what do you think the market would be for Brown if the Raiders are able to rid themselves of this? They suspend him, they get all their money back. He's sitting there looking at not making any money. What would the market for him be?

I don't know. I mean, I just, I don't know, Ryan. I guess, I guess the rest of the week, nightmare scenario is that he goes to New England, right? Like, like does, does what, does what LeGarrette Blount did when he, when he I guess the rest of the week's nightmare scenario is that he goes to New England. Like what Garrett Blount did when he blew his way out of Pittsburgh, shows up at New England and has a ring four months later. I can't imagine any team is going to throw big guaranteed money at him. That said, he's a great player.

And if I know football coaches, I know that they feel like they can fix people. Most football coaches will see a great talent and say, well, this guy couldn't work with them or that guy couldn't work with them, but I can work with them. And so I certainly think there are those guys out there that'll think that they can work with them, but I just don't think that there's anything close to the money

that he was able to get from the Raiders out there for him. And so if the Raiders went through with this, I think the process would probably be to suspend him for four games under conduct detrimental, which is the max. And then they would release him after that. I think there'd be a job somewhere out there for him. But I think in the final analysis,

you'd see that he'd blown a lot of money. Okay. Let's talk about money. The Z contract, which you touched on already, it felt like, okay, it's reported as this, but it feels like on top of the two existing years, it's two more guaranteed years, but the guaranteed money is more than girly. The average annual salary is more than girly. So that seemed important. And then you have Goff, who some of us were wondering, are they going to want to see what he is the seemed important. And then you have Goff who, you know, some of us were wondering, you know, they're going to want to see what he's, what he is the next year. And then it's a hundred million guaranteed. And I never have any of the problem with any of the guaranteed money. Cause I actually think really the way this has evolved, it should have been like this for a

while because if any of these guys ever got to true free agency without a tag, we would have seen the guaranteed money come up years and years ago. And now it's just starting to happen. Whether it was Lux deal, Ryan or cousins, three-year deal. How much of this is it just a theory I'm working with here? I haven't heard anybody say this to me. How much do you think some of this money being handed out is in anticipation of what the new TV deal is going to be with the NFL, knowing that the CBA expires after 2020. And if they look at what the NBA just did, like NBA teams, some of them absolutely screwed up forecasting how much their TV rights would be worth. Now, Jones saying that they're worth 50% more with gambling

is him just negotiating publicly, and that's ridiculous. That's a ridiculous number. But I wonder if teams are going, yeah, it seems like it's a lot right now, but if we have this guy under contract with two years into a new CBA, this is a really good number considering what the cap is going to be. Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if... And look, that's made these contracts, because of the rules, a little more complicated. Like Carson Wentz's deal, if you look at it, the length of the contract, I think three

or four times what a standard contract is, because they had to work around this thing called the 30% rule. And so teams are certainly aware of the CBA coming up, and television deals are right after that, and we didn't even get into gambling either. There are a bunch of owners that are gung-ho on the idea of leveraging profits off of gambling. And so there's going to be, you know,

I think there is a feeling out there that, you know, the cap is going to continue to go up because the revenue is going to continue to go up. The cap is based on a percentage of the revenue. And I think with these particular deals that you're talking about, golf and feet, there are other circumstances to play into it too. You would notice that like the quarterback deals, right? They've sort of started to flatten out. Like for a while there, it was the highest paid quarterbacks,

the last starter to get paid. And that went from Derek Carr to Andrew Luck, Matt Stafford to Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Ryan, Darren Rogers to Russell Wilson. And now we've had three quarterbacks in a row who failed to top Russell Wilson. That's Carson Wentz, Ben Roethlisberger,

and Jared Goff. And Roethlisberger's a little different, but Goff and Wentz got done with two years left in their rookie deals. And I think that what's affecting those guys is that everybody's afraid of what Mahomes might get next year or two. Mahomes will be eligible for a contract next spring,

and most people feel like he's going to get up over $40 million per, and so the market's going to change completely. And so I think as much as anything else, the Rams doing golf now with sort of this conscious decision where they said to themselves, we're eventually going to have to deal with them. They don't have to make that decision. And it's like we want to make sure we're not paying a tax

because of what Mahomes is making. And then when it comes to Zeke, I think it's just the circumstance of teams and Ryan. I mean, it's as simple as that. Like they're very much in a win-now position. They've got a coach and a contract year. And, you know, they're in this window where they've still got a lot of their stars on rookie contracts, and the dynamic's going to change. Steven Jones told me he thinks this is their deepest roster since the 90s and so you know they felt like they had to capitalize on what they have right now and zeke wasn't necessarily at the

front of the line for the contracts but once he held out he pushed his way to the front of the line and um they've got a lot invested in this year and so you know it was you know one of those where they had where they looked at it and they said, it's a very important year for the franchise, and we've just got to find a way to make a compromise here. Yeah, I don't think the Zeke deal happens with many other franchises. And I think he and his reps knew that, and it totally worked out. I mean, they played it perfectly considering they had two years remaining,

which I actually think is kind of an interesting thought of running back saying, hey, I only have so many years years which i've always said is a little overblown with the top running backs but if top draft picks are going to try to now hold out with two years left on a rookie contract then i'd be even less inclined to take a running back in the top 10 of the top first half of the first round so if this becomes the norm like wait a minute so now i'm only getting you for three years and then you're going to start complaining? Like, I didn't want to take a running back top seven before any of this stuff, and now I'd be less inclined to want to do it.

And I think the teams may look at it that way. It's sort of interesting, too, because, you know, I remember talking to the Cowboys about this before they drafted Zeke with a fourth pick in 2016. And part of their point was, well, we're okay drafting a running back that high because we're going to get the prime of their career on his rookie deal. You know, it's the rare position where the meat of the prime of their career is going to be right there.

And, you know, that's what running backs who get drafted higher up, you know, is that, you know, by the time their rookie deals are up, especially the first-round picks who, you know, have those, you know, by the time the rookie deals are up, especially the first round picks who have those 50 or options, that they may not have much gas left in the tank. And so that's why I think a guy like Zeke and, you know, probably Saquon in a couple of years too, that's why it's almost incumbent on those guys to get their money as soon as they possibly can.

Because once you get to year four, year five, you might be talking about something else entirely. In fact, you look at a couple of good examples out there. I mean, Le'Veon Bell is now going into his seventh year in the league. He's not nearly as valuable as if he had made it out to the market after year four, right? And then Todd Gurley is probably the best example where, and I'm sure Zeke looked at this,

if you're Zeke Elliott, you look at Todd Gurley and you say to yourself, if the Rams had to pay him today in 2019, would they pay him last year? Would they still do it? The answer to that question is no. You can certainly understand where, on one hand, these teams look at it and say we're getting the prime of the guy's career by drafting him that high. Then the flip side is the running back says, well, you know, I've got to fight up against that. And so if I'm still, you know, in a position to command a huge, huge number

after three years, then I've got to go and get that money right at that point, because it might not be there forever. We'll get Super Bowl and playoff picks from Breer here in a second, but here's an insider travel secret from Hotel Tonight. There are tons of empty rooms out there just waiting to be booked. Hotel Tonight teams up with awesome hotels to help them sell these rooms and then passes those savings along to you. It's your one-stop shop for booking cool, top-rated hotels and incredible values. Their name is Hotel Tonight, but you can actually book in advance,

perfect for planners and procrastinators alike. You know what? I'm going to tell you a secret. I use it all the time. All right? It is my number one go-to. And I booked something ahead of time because I'm headed to Austin tonight as of this taping for LSU Texas. And I've got a buddy coming to town.

And I wasn't sure how I was going to play this out. So I hedged it. I booked one early. I wanted to see if I'd get some savings a little bit later. And that was fun because then I just went back in a hotel tonight. I go, look at this. I get a great deal on the same hotel booked two entirely different times, last minute and planner. And I'm not much of a planner, but you can get it done with hotels tonight. This summer, you can score and this fall an extra amazing deal with Hotel Tonight's daily drop feature. In most cities, you can get it done with Hotel Tonight. This summer, you can score, and this fall, an extra amazing deal with Hotel Tonight's Daily Drop feature.

In most cities, you can use Daily Drop to unblock a special deal at a hotel selected just for you. Once your deal is unlocked, move quickly. You only have 15 minutes to book. If you want to swipe again, you can unlock a new deal every day. It's a great way to take an even more spontaneous trip because you never know what you're going to get.

From staycations to weekend getaways, great hotel deals are just one swipe away. Go to hoteltonight.com or trust me on this one, just go in to the app store, download the Hotel Tonight app to unlock your daily drop. I read your piece on Cam Newton. I thought it was really interesting. And for those that, you know, I'd summarize it a bit earlier, but, you know, him learning a little differently, him understanding that he learns differently, that he's more visual. Scott Turner, Norv Turner working to try to really hone in a way to get him to understand coverages and throws. He's 30 now. He sounds more vulnerable. He's 30 now. He sounds more vulnerable.

Who is he as a quarterback? Are you buying Cam? Because some people are all the way in based on the stuff that you've said, based on how he looked the first half of last season before that shoulder injury. And I'll admit that I'm still a little skeptical and feel like 15 was more flukish than who he can be. Yeah. You know, it's interesting. I think he's sort of where, and this isn't a perfect athletic comparison,

but I think it works to a certain extent. He's sort of where Ben Roethlisberger was, where, you know, Ben Roethlisberger, when he was in his 20s, won a lot and, you know, played sort of a reckless style under Bruce Arians, took a lot of big hits and was pretty beat up, you know, and then Todd Haley gets there, I believe it was 2012, and Haley just drills it into your head. You've got Antonio Brown here. You've got Emmanuel Sanders there. You've got Mike Wallace there. Just be a distributor. That's all we need you to do. Go out there and play point guard. And it doesn't mean that he doesn't pull the ripcord every now and then and play the way he's capable of playing in scramble situations because he's more judicious about it and I think Ben really

was able to extend his career by learning those lessons and that's sort of where Cam is right now and I think Cam was starting to get it last year before he got hurt and I think he can get in the performance of the guys around him and they've put good skill position players around him now too I mean you got Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel and DJ Moore there now. And so, you know, I think, you know, this combination of things gives Cam a chance. I don't know where he's going to be physically two to three, four years down the line based on the beating his body's taken. But I think at least the fact that he's cognizant that that's a factor is important. And he's cognizant that his style of play, you know, when he was, say, 25, that's a factor is important, and he's cognizant that his style of play,

when he was, say, 25, that's not sustainable. I think all of that gives him a chance now. And being with coaches that are trying to help him learn a different way I think can really help. That gets you to the final – that gets you to where you need to go. That gets you to the point where you can go out there and you can be a point guard. You can play that position as a distributor. You can get the most out of the point where you can go out there and you can be a point guard. You can play that position as a distributor.

You can get the most out of the people around you while still having that, you know, that athletic ability that you can use when you need it. You know, I think that's sort of where you're looking to get. That's really where the Turners have worked to get Cam. And I think the great that after sitting down with Cam to do that story, the biggest thing I took away from it was that they've really sold Cam on it. Cam's really invested on it because that's the biggest part of it. Too much Cleveland right now.

I feel like everybody's picking them to the playoffs. They feel that good. I think talent-wise, you go through the roster and you go, hey, this is supposed to be a good team. But I always push back on this stuff. I'm not sitting there like oh baker's this or you know overrated all these different things like i understand the swagger and especially that franchise to be at one point probably the franchise you had the

most pity for nationally of any franchise in any major sport but then every single person's picking to win the division where are you with them i'm not picking them in the division i'm picking the steelers because i think the steelers are going to sort of bounce back coming um i haven't gone through everything they want they were a really good team in november last year uh ryan and the wheels came off in december for obvious reasons but um you know they're not placing levy on bell they already did that last year. They didn't have him last year. And as for Antonio Brown, I'm not saying they've got one guy who's going to do it, but there's no one who's been better at drafting and developing receivers over the last 15 years than the Steelers.

I think they'll find a way to make that work. And I really like what they've done on defense, bringing in Devin Bush to kind of be the guy in the middle there. The Browns, I like where they're going. I will tell you this, when I've talked to their people, I've sensed some of the concern that I think

that you're getting to there, that the hype is sort of a little out of control. I think the issues that they have on the offensive line are real, and they're going to have to work through some of those. It's not just left tackle, it's also right guard. It looks right now they struck out on a guy who they took high in the second round austin forbit um they've got another kid starting at right guard

now and so that offensive line's an issue and i think depth is another thing that they are concerned about like if they got an injury at corner or they got an injury at receiver um there are certain spots in the roster where it's like, you know, even an injury on the defensive line. I mean, that's why they pursued Mike Daniels and Gerald McCoy. If they have injuries in any of those areas, it could wind up really, really affecting them. And so I think we have a tendency, and I understand this, I think we all have a tendency to sort of look at starting 22 and say, okay, well, they're good here, they're good here, they're good here.

Thing is, the way an NFL season works is it inevitably becomes a war of attrition. You're going to need depth in certain spots. And so Browns could get really lucky, and everyone stays healthy, and they could wind up 12-4. And I think that that's absolutely on the table, especially because I really believe in Baker Mayfield as a quarterback. But there are definitely some trouble spots in that roster that I know the people who put that team together are cognizant of.

And the one reminder that you get when you talk to people there, John Dorsey's been there for less than two years. So while you do have some of these front-line players there, the guts of the roster really haven't been built up to the point where he'd like it. I did an opening, something I do every year, just because I think remembering who all the backup QBs are, like, hey, is that guy on a roster? That guy not on a roster.

I went through it, and as of yesterday, the last two days, when I looked at active quarterbacks on depth charts, there were 46 backups. So 18 teams carried two quarterbacks, and charts there were 46 backups so 18 teams carried you know two quarterbacks and then 14 um went with three so yeah as i went through it 20 guys have never started a game and about half of those guys have never even played in a game basically i mean like actually played in a game and i've had this theory for a while that it's not that someone just has somebody on the team they go this guy can't play it's just you never find out and you would rather replace him with somebody new and hope you kind of strike lightning um with some kind of backup which almost never

happens here so basically the league kills its own depth for a bunch of different reasons like you can't just give a guy hey your week's 15's yours like it doesn't work that way or hey you're gonna get you know 75 of the first team reps this week just so we can see if you can do it or not but this league basically determines that like half of the backups are never going to get a chance and we're just going to replace them a bunch of other guys that never played and i know there's been talks about developmental leagues and some of the stuff that we went through do you ever talk to front office guys about that and how kind of ridiculous the turnover is i mean probably knowing they don't know whether or not any of the guys can actually play if given the opportunity that they're getting every year you know it's interesting because the

league uh we did a bunch of studies this is I would say, maybe halfway through the current CBA. The Football People's League Office did a bunch of different studies on the effects of the CBA. And one of the biggest negative effects that they found in the practice rules was that it was having a horrible, horrible impact on the development of offensive linemen and quarterbacks and what do those two positions have in common well if you're not starting you're not playing you know like almost every other position i'd say every other position on the field um there is some sort of rotation

you know and guys are getting in and guys are playing on special teams and guys are getting different kinds of experience and you know with the quarterbacks and with the offensive linemen the backups just aren't playing and so you know i think that that piece of it's important because if you're cutting the practice time in half or whatever it is um you know you're you're you're cutting out not only a lot of work for those guys but you know the chance for the coaches to have exposure to them and the chance for the coaches to really get a full assessment of who they are. And so I think, like, what you're talking about, I mean, yeah, it's part of the developmental issue. I think it's also just, you know, sort of the impact that the CBA has had on all of this,

where it's like coaches have to make assessments, get guys ready quicker, and then the players have less time to prove themselves and develop. And so I think it's those two positions. And that's why like when even like halfway decent offensive linemen, they get out there to the free agent market, they get paid a boatload of money. If you don't have like an opportunity to get guys engaged, you don't have an opportunity to get guys real experience. You don't have an opportunity to get guys engaged. You don't have an opportunity to get guys real experience. You don't have an opportunity

to get guys out there. For the amount of practice time that you used to in the past, it's a lot harder to get a real read on them. To me, when I look at a league like the AAF or the XFL coming next year, I think that's where the biggest benefit would be. If the

NFL could somehow allocate guys to that league and get some of the backup offensive linemen and the backup quarterbacks some experience. And that, of course, would help those guys too because they'd have the chance to develop and prove themselves on a different stage. Okay. All right. Before we let you go here,

I don't know if you can do this off the top of your head. I imagine you've had to do this a million times already in some of the preview stuff. Do you know who you have making the playoffs in each conference? I do. I have to pull it up, though. Go ahead. I can tell you the two teams I have in the

Super Bowl are the Chiefs and the Eagles. I have the Eagles winning it. My 1-6 in the NFC, Eagles, Saints, Rams, 3 third, the Vikings, fourth, the Cowboys, fifth, and the Panthers, sixth. I have the Eagles beating the Saints in the NFC Championship.

And then on the AFC side, I've got the Patriots, the Chiefs, the Steelers, three, the Texans, four, the Chargers, five, and the Browns, six. So the Browns begin the Steelers three, the Texans four, the Chargers five, and the Browns six. So the Browns begin the playoff. And then I have the Chiefs beating the Patriots in the AFC Championship. So we've got the Andy Reid Super Bowl and the Eagles beating Andy Reid, the

Chiefs in Miami. Okay, so man, I can't believe I have the Chiefs and Eagles in the Super Bowl as well. I have Kansas City beating Philadelphia. And I always try to do one out of nowhere pick. I just try to do one that's different. The AFC, it was a little harder to have a ton of turnover because I think it's Chiefs, the Pats, the Texans. I kept the Chargers in there. If they're healthy, I like them, but that's what everybody says about LA. I wonder how many people are still going to see San Diego. I almost do it weekly. I put Pittsburgh back in. I always try to do one that doesn't make any sense because that's what this turnover usually is like,

and I put the Jets. I went anti-hype Cleveland. Yeah, I put the Jets in there. Yeah, look out. You don't seem to like that one. That's okay. That's exactly what I was trying to do. I like a lot of – I know.

I like a lot of what the Jets – where their roster is, the way the defense is built up the middle with C.J. Mosley and Jamal Adams and Quentin Williams. I like some of their skill talent. I love Sam Darnold. My issue, I just look at the Jets and their two problems are a corner and offensive line and those are two bad places to have issues if you're an NFL team so I just like I like a lot of where they're going and I love the new GM Joe Douglas I think they've got a chance to eventually get there but it's just when your issues are at offensive line,

normally that means your quarterback's going to get killed. And if your issue on defense is at corner, that usually means you're going to give up a bunch of big plays. And so that's where my issue would be with the Jets. I don't think it's completely off the board. And I definitely appreciate you throwing the curveball because I feel like I went all chalk. But I think those two areas are going to be problems.

So the other one I went Saints, Rams, Eagles. I put Minnesota back in there. I always like Seattle. I feel like every year. And then I'm like, okay, what do I do? Do I put Dallas in there like everybody else? Maybe Carolina. And I went Detroit.

Again, I would say their personnel probably isn't even in the top 10 in the NFC. But that's my pick one that doesn't make any sense rule because we're likely going to get one in each conference. So that's what I think. But you know what, though? I actually, I do like the Lions and where they are. And here's one thing I would tell you. One thing I've found is teams that make big jumps, right?

And we've seen this over the last, I think this holds true probably over the last five or six years. Teams that make big jumps are generally really sturdy and have invested on the lines of scrimmage. And if you look where the Lions are at, right? Frank Ragnow, first-round pick at center. Taylor Decker, first-round pick at left tackle. Ricky Wagner was a big free agent signing at right tackle. On the defensive line, Trey Flowers and Damon Harrison were huge, huge veteran additions. Mike Daniels, they had him this summer.

They've really invested on both lines of scrimmage. Generally, teams like that are in every game. I'm sort of withimpy with the Lions. I didn't have the guts to put them on my list, to put them in the playoffs. Honestly, that's why I picked these teams. The year the Eagles won the Super Bowl, I picked them as my breakthrough team.

I didn't have them winning the whole thing, but I picked them as a breakthrough team just because I thought that that area was so well taken care of there that they were going to be competitive week to week. And I think Detroit's kind of in that boat right now, too. Yeah, you know what else doesn't take any guts? Picking the same 12 teams

from last year, which is usually, you look at it and you go, okay, how many of these teams can I actually eliminate? And you're like, oh, now everybody's going to come back, and then you're just going to be wrong. So I always try to do something a little bit different, at least with one of the picks, because the rest of them are pretty much standard. You're the best. Thanks so much.

Look forward to maybe having to join us here on the new Ryan Russillo podcast of The Ringer. And you can check out Breer's work on the MMQBSI.com. So thanks again, man. Awesome. Thanks for having me, Ryan. I want to thank everybody for subscribing, rating, and reviewing the Ryan Russillo podcast on The Ringer Network.

And it is part of the Dual Threat feed. So the Dual Threat thing is gone. We have a lot of stuff that we're working on the ringer network. And it is part of the dual threat feed. So the dual threat thing is gone. We have a lot of stuff that we're working on some cool stuff, but I can't wait to get into, and we'll slowly develop this over the course of the fall and over this, this deal with the ringer. So I'm pumped about it and hope you guys are enjoying it. Also want to remind you once again,

hotel tonight shows you incredible deals at cool hotels. You'll actually want to stay at. Score an extra amazing deal with Hotel Tonight's Daily Drop feature. Unlock a special deal at a hotel selected just for you and snag it within 15 minutes. If you want to swipe again, you can unlock a new deal every day.

Go to HotelTonight.com or download the app. Unlock your Daily Drop. Enjoy the football week one. you